2021 Saxony-Anhalt state election

The 2021 Saxony-Anhalt state election was held on 6 June 2021 to elect the 8th Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt.[1] The outgoing government was coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Social Democratic Party (SPD), and The Greens, led by Minister-President Reiner Haseloff.

2021 Saxony-Anhalt state election

← 2016 6 June 2021 2026 →

All 97 seats in the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt (including 14 overhang and leveling seats)
49 seats needed for a majority
Turnout1,079,045 (60.3%)
Decrease 0.8%
  First party Second party Third party
 
Reiner Haseloff (Martin Rulsch) 08.jpg
2018-05-24 Abgeordnete(r) des Landtags von Sachsen-Anhalt IMG 5942 LR10 by Stepro.jpg
Candidate Reiner Haseloff Oliver Kirchner Eva von Angern
Party CDU AfD Left
Last election 30 seats, 29.8% 25 seats, 24.3% 16 seats, 16.3%
Seats won 40 23 12
Seat change Increase 10 Decrease 2 Decrease 4
Popular vote 394,810 221,487 116,927
Percentage 37.1% 20.8% 11.0%
Swing Increase 7.4% Decrease 3.4% Decrease 5.3%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Katja_Pähle_2434.jpg
Lydia-Hüskens-MdL-Portrait.jpg
Cornelia Lüddemann 2021 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Katja Pähle Lydia Hüskens Cornelia Lüddemann
Party SPD FDP Greens
Last election 11 seats, 10.6% 0 seats, 4.9% 5 seats, 5.2%
Seats won 9 7 6
Seat change Decrease 2 Increase 7 Increase 1
Popular vote 89,475 68,277 63,145
Percentage 8.4% 6.4% 5.9%
Swing Decrease 2.2% Increase 1.6% Increase 0.8%

Results for the single-member constituencies

Government before election

Second Haseloff cabinet
CDUSPDGreen

Government after election

Third Haseloff cabinet
CDUSPDFDP

The CDU won an unexpectedly strong 37.1% of votes, an increase of 7.4 percentage points. The opposition Alternative for Germany (AfD) finished on 20.8%, a decline of 3.4 percentage points. The Left and SPD each suffered their worst ever results in the state, recording 11.0% and 8.4% respectively. The Free Democratic Party (FDP), which narrowly failed to re-enter the Landtag in 2016, won 6.4% of votes and 7 seats. The Greens finished on an unexpectedly low 5.9%, only a slight improvement from their previous result.[2][3]

Going in to the election, the CDU trailed the AfD in some polls, with most others showing a neck-to-neck race, with the CDU sitting at around 30 % support. The unexpected CDU sweep – improving their 2016 result and winning a plurality in every district of the state, though they narrowly lost the Zeitz constituency – was largely attributed to the personal popularity of long-time Minister-President Haseloff, who, at the time, was the Minister-President with the highest favorability ratings. This allowed him to carry the CDU to victory against the poor showing in the polls of the federal CDU, largely resulting from developments in their campaign in the then-upcoming federal election. The AfDs leader Oliver Kirchner on the other hand was barely known to the public, with polls showing he would garner single-digit support if the Minister-President was elected directly.

On 6 July, the CDU, SPD, and FDP began coalition negotiations. The three parties presented a draft coalition agreement on 9 August,[4] which was later approved by each party's membership. Haseloff was re-elected Minister-President on 16 September on the second ballot in the Landtag.[5]

The coalition, dubbed "Germany coalition" due to the coalition parties colors, was übergroß, since the CDU and SPD alone would have held a single-seat majority in the Landtag. The last übergroß coalition, popular in times of crises, for example in West Berlin in the post-WWII years, was formed in Hamburg in 1970. The gamble paid off,[clarification needed] since the Landtag didn't elect Haseloff on the first ballot, which some commentators attributed to right-wing dissent within the CDU faction.

Election date

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The Landtag is elected for five years, with its term commencing when the new Landtag first meets. Election must take place between 58 and 62 months after the start of the legislative period.[6] In November 2019, the state government announced that the election would take place on 6 June 2021.[1]

Electoral system

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The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 41 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 42 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Landtag is 83 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are ineligible to receive seats.[7]

Background

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In the previous election held on 13 March 2016, the CDU remained the largest party with 29.8% of votes cast, a decline of 2.7 percentage points. Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested its first election in Saxony-Anhalt, winning 24.3%. The Left fell from second to third place with 16.3%, a decline of 7.4 points. The SPD lost half its voteshare, falling to 10.6%. The Greens narrowly retained their seats with 5.2%.

The CDU had led a coalition with the SPD since 2011, but this government lost its majority in the election. The CDU subsequently formed a coalition with the SPD and Greens.

Parties

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The table below lists parties which were represented in the 7th Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt.

Name Ideology Lead
candidate
2016 result
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Reiner Haseloff 29.8%
30 / 87
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
Right-wing populism Oliver Kirchner 24.3%
25 / 87
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism Eva von Angern 16.3%
16 / 87
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Katja Pähle 10.6%
11 / 87
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Cornelia Lüddemann 5.2%
5 / 87

Campaign

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Lead candidates

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On 10 July 2020, SPD parliamentary group leader Katja Pähle was elected as the SPD's lead candidate for the election, defeating challenger Roger Stöcker. In a vote by the party membership, Pähle won 834 votes (52.5%) to Stöcker's 652 (41.0%).[8]

On 12 July 2020, The Left party executive nominated deputy Landtag leader Eva von Angern as their lead candidate for the election. Some within the party disapproved of the executive nominating a preferred nominee ahead of time, and desired an open contest between candidates at the conference. The party's district associations in Jerichower Land, Saalekreis, and Magdeburg signed an open letter expressing their disappointment. Party chairman Stefan Gebhardt stated he took the criticism seriously, and that the executive's announcement was simply a suggestion.[9] Angern was elected as lead candidate with 85.6% of votes at a party conference on 30 January 2021.[10]

On 5 September 2020, the Greens party congress elected Landtag group leader Cornelia Lüddemann as their lead candidate for the election.[11]

On 21 September 2020, the CDU confirmed incumbent Minister-President Reiner Haseloff as its lead candidate. In prior months, state party leader Holger Stahlknecht had stated his desire to become top candidate if Haseloff chose not to seek another term as Minister-President.[12] Stahlknecht affirmed his support for Haseloff after the September announcement.[13]

The Free Democratic Party, which narrowly failed to enter the Landtag in 2016, elected deputy leader Lydia Hüskens as its lead candidate on 26 September 2020.[14]

On 20 December 2020, AfD parliamentary group leader Oliver Kirchner was nominated as his party's lead candidate for the election. He ran unopposed, winning 361 of 416 votes at a party conference.[15]

Opinion polling

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Party polling

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Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU AfD Linke SPD Grüne FDP FW Others Lead
2021 state election 6 Jun 2021 37.1 20.8 11.0 8.4 5.9 6.4 3.1 7.2 16.3
INSA 1–4 Jun 2021 1,132 27 26 12 10 8 7 3 7 1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 2–3 Jun 2021 1,017 30 23 11.5 10 9 6.5 3 7 7
Wahlkreisprognose 22–31 May 2021 28.5 24.5 10.5 11 8 7 3 7.5 4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 25–27 May 2021 1,008 29 23 11 10 9 8 3 7 6
Infratest dimap 25–26 May 2021 1,249 28 24 10 11 9 8 3 7 4
INSA 17–23 May 2021 1,000 25 26 13 10 11 8 7 1
INSA 20–27 Apr 2021 1,042 26 24 13 10 12 6 9 2
Infratest dimap 16–21 Apr 2021 1,202 27 20 12 12 11 8 10 7
INSA 19–25 Jan 2021 1,084 30 23 16 10 9 5 7 7
INSA 23–30 Nov 2020 1,079 29 23 17 10 10 4 7 6
GMS 15–29 Jul 2020 1,003 33 19 16 12 10 4 1 5 14
Infratest dimap 28 May–3 Jun 2020 1,003 34 19 16 13 8 4 6 15
INSA 2–16 Mar 2020 1,005 25 25 18 11 11 4 6 Tie
Infratest dimap 21–25 Aug 2018 1,000 28 21 19 14 6 8 4 7
CONOSCOPE 30 Jan–8 Mar 2018 1,100 35 15 20 16 5 6 3 15
Infratest dimap 12–17 Jun 2017 1,000 40 13 20 13 6 5 3 20
Infratest dimap 15–19 Nov 2016 1,000 33 22 18 15 5 7 11
2016 state election 13 Mar 2016 29.8 24.3 16.3 10.6 5.2 4.9 2.2 6.8 5.5

Minister-President polling

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Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
  None/Unsure Lead
Haseloff
CDU
Kirchner
AfD
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 2–3 Jun 2021 1,017 68 9 23 59
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 25–27 May 2021 1,008 68 7 25 61
Infratest dimap 21–25 Aug 2018 1,000 56 10 16 46

Preferred coalition

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Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Assessment CDU
SPD
FDP
CDU
SPD
Grüne
CDU
Grüne
FDP
CDU
AfD
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 25–27 May 2021 1,008 Positive 37 32 19 14
Negative 33 48 60 76

Position in government

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Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Assessment CDU AfD Linke SPD Grüne FDP
INSA May 2021 ? Party of the Minister-President 26.6 10.9 5.3 8.2 5.9
Party of government 21.0 12.0 22.2 32.1 24.3 22.0

Results

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PartyConstituencyParty listTotal
seats
+/–
Votes%+/–SeatsVotes%+/–Seats
Christian Democratic Union (CDU)362,33434.13+4.5840394,81037.12+7.37040+10
Alternative for Germany (AfD)231,87121.84–1.281221,48720.82–3.452223–2
The Left (LINKE)135,42112.76–5.910116,92710.99–5.331212–4
Social Democratic Party (SPD)116,50410.98–3.31089,4758.41–2.2299–2
Free Democratic Party (FDP)70,7146.66+1.19068,2776.42+1.5677+7
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)60,4955.70+0.42063,1455.94+0.7666+1
Free Voters57,5275.42+3.35033,2913.13+0.9700±0
Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany7,5640.71New015,6231.47New00±0
Human Environment Animal Protection Party1,0560.10+0.10015,2791.44–0.0400±0
Garden Party3,2160.30+0.0808,5830.81+0.3800±0
Die PARTEI3,9090.37+0.2607,7680.73+0.2000±0
Animal Protection Here!00.00New06,2380.59New00±0
Animal Protection Alliance4,5180.43+0.1905,1090.48–0.5600±0
Party for Health Research00.00New03,9510.37New00±0
Pirate Party Germany00.00New03,8150.36New00±0
National Democratic Party1600.02+0.0202,8880.27–1.6200±0
WiR202000.00New01,6490.16New00±0
Free Citizens of Central Germany2,9320.28–0.1601,6130.15–0.2200±0
The Humanists00.00New01,4050.13New00±0
Ecological Democratic Party1450.01New01,0620.10New00±0
Climate List Saxony-Anhalt00.00New08270.08New00±0
Liberal Conservative Reformers00.00±0.0004750.04–0.8300±0
Independents3,1530.30–0.10000.00000±0
Total1,061,519100.00411,063,697100.005697
Valid votes1,061,51998.381,063,69798.58
Invalid/blank votes17,5261.6215,3481.42
Total votes1,079,045100.001,079,045100.00
Registered voters/turnout1,788,95560.32–0.791,788,95560.32–0.79
Source: State Returning Officer
Popular vote
CDU
37.12%
AfD
20.82%
LINKE
10.99%
SPD
8.41%
FDP
6.42%
GRÜNE
5.94%
FW
3.13%
Other
7.17%
Landtag seats
CDU
41.24%
AfD
23.71%
LINKE
12.37%
SPD
9.28%
FDP
7.22%
GRÜNE
6.19%

Aftermath

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The CDU's clear victory was not predicted by opinion polling, which suggested that the party was likely to win a plurality, but would not exceed 30% of the vote. Likewise, the AfD and Greens did more poorly than expected.[16][17] Off the heels of poor results in the March state elections, the result was perceived as a success for the CDU nationally. However, commentators pointed to the personal popularity of Minister-President Haseloff, who they noted had distanced himself from federal chairman Armin Laschet, endorsing rival Markus Söder during the contest for the Chancellor candidacy in April.[18][2] In addition, the Saxony-Anhalt branch of AfD is considered to be quite extreme even by national party's standards and had been under surveillance since June 2021.[19][20]

The incumbent governing "Kenya coalition" of the CDU, SPD, and Greens was returned with an increased majority of 55 seats; the CDU and SPD alone held a slim majority of 49 seats. Other options included a "Jamaica coalition" of the CDU, FDP, and Greens (53 seats), as well as the previously untested "Germany coalition" of the CDU, SPD, and FDP (56 seats).[3] Minister-President Haseloff stated that he would hold government discussions with "all democratic parties", and ruled out a coalition with the AfD or The Left.[21]

Government formation

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The Greens ruled out renewing their coalition with the CDU and SPD, stating that they did not wish to enter a government in which they were not mathematically necessary. The SPD demanded that the next government implement free daycare and provide more funds for municipalities or hospitals where possible. The FDP demanded a reduction of bureaucracy in order to streamline the procurement law.[22]

On 7 July, the CDU, SPD, and FDP announced they would enter negotiations for a coalition government.[23] On 9 August, the three parties announced that a draft coalition agreement had been finalised.[4]

All three parties held membership ballots to approve the agreement. On 4 September, the SPD announced that the agreement had been passed with 63.4% approval.[24] This was followed on 10 September by approval from 92.1% of CDU members[25] and 98% of FDP members.[26]

On 16 September, the Landtag re-elected Haseloff as Minister-President and invested his new cabinet. Haseloff unexpectedly failed to be elected on the first ballot, winning only 48 of the necessary 49 votes. His coalition holds 56 seats in total. On the second ballot, he was elected with 53 votes in favour to 43 against, with one abstention.[5]

Notes

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References

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  1. ^ a b "Termin für Landtagswahl 2021 steht - Höhere Kosten für Steuerzahler". Mdr.de.
  2. ^ a b "Germany's CDU gets boost with surprise victory". Deutsche Welle. 6 June 2021.
  3. ^ a b "CDU clearly wins election in Saxony-Anhalt, Left and SPD historically weak". Der Spiegel (in German). 6 June 2021.
  4. ^ a b "After State Elections: Saxony-Anhalt: CDU, SPD and FDP agree upon coalition". Die Zeit (in German). 9 August 2021.
  5. ^ a b "Haseloff was only re-elected as Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt in the second attempt". Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 16 September 2021.
  6. ^ "Landesverfassung_LV" (PDF). Landtag Sachsen-Anhalt. 20 March 2020.
  7. ^ "Wahlsystem". Landwahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt.
  8. ^ "SPD: Pähle selected as the top candidate for the state election". n-tv. 10 July 2020.
  9. ^ "Eva von Angern is set to become the top left candidate for the 2021 state election". Mdr.de. 12 July 2020.
  10. ^ "Left goes with faction head in state election campaign". N-tv.de. 30 January 2021.
  11. ^ "Lüddemann leads the Greens in the 2021 state election". Mdr.de. 5 September 2020.
  12. ^ "Stahlknecht will CDU-Spitzenkandidat werden – aber nicht gegen Haseloff antreten". Mdr.de. 9 March 2020.
  13. ^ "Reiner Haseloff is again running as the top CDU candidate in Saxony-Anhalt". Der Spiegel. 21 September 2020.
  14. ^ "State election: FDP elects Lydia Hüskens as the top candidate". Mdr.de. 27 September 2020.
  15. ^ "Kirchner named AfD top candidate". Mdr.de. 20 December 2020.
  16. ^ "Germany: CDU fends off far-right AfD in Saxony-Anhalt state election". Deutsche Welle. 6 June 2021.
  17. ^ "These are the winners and losers of the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt". Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 6 June 2021.
  18. ^ "Haseloff's victory is a leap of faith". Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 6 June 2021.
  19. ^ "Big win for Merkel's party confounds pundits and pollsters". POLITICO. 2021-06-07. Retrieved 2022-08-13.
  20. ^ Welle (www.dw.com), Deutsche. "German state puts regional AfD branch under surveillance — reports | DW | 26.01.2021". DW.COM. Retrieved 2022-08-13.
  21. ^ "Preliminary result: CDU by far the strongest force - Haseloff can choose coalition partners". Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 6 June 2021.
  22. ^ "Sachsen-Anhalt: CDU und FDP sondieren mögliche Koalition". Volksstimme (in German). 22 June 2021.
  23. ^ "CDU wants to form a coalition with the SPD and FDP". Süddeutsche Zeitung (in German). 7 July 2021.
  24. ^ Kammer, Alena (4 September 2021). "SPD in Saxony-Anhalt votes in favor of coalition with CDU and FDP". Die Zeit (in German).
  25. ^ "CDU in Saxony-Anhalt for Coalition with SPD and FDP". Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 10 September 2021.
  26. ^ "FDP agrees to Coalition agreement". Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 10 September 2021.