2024 United States Senate election in Virginia
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 County and independent city results Kaine: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Cao: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Virginia |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia. Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine sought a third term. He was being challenged by Republican former U.S. Navy captain Hung Cao. Primary elections took place on June 18, 2024.[1] The election saw Kaine re-elected.[2][3]
Background
[edit]Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Virginia by about 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and the minimum majority in both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections.[4][5][6]
Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points, defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen, and won re-election in 2018 by 16 points.[7][8]
This race was considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates.[9]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Tim Kaine
- U.S representatives
- Gabby Giffords, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)[10]
- Individuals
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)[11]
- Organizations
- Feminist Majority PAC[12]
- Giffords[10]
- Harvard College Democrats[13]
- Humane Society Legislative Fund[14]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[15]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[16]
- J Street PAC[17]
- League of Conservation Voters[18]
- LGBT Democrats of Virginia[19]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare PAC[20]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[21]
- NextGen America PAC[11]
- Population Connection Action Fund[22]
- Sierra Club[23]
- Labor unions
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of May 29, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Tim Kaine (D) | $14,583,509 | $8,488,125 | $8,615,046 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[25] | |||
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Hung Cao, former U.S. Navy captain and nominee for Virginia's 10th congressional district in 2022[26]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Jonathan Emord, constitutional lawyer[27]
- Eddie Garcia, financial advisor and former congressional aide[28]
- Scott Parkinson, former Club for Growth vice president of government affairs and former chief of staff to Ron DeSantis[29]
- Chuck Smith, former chair of the Virginia Beach Republican Party, nominee for Virginia's 3rd congressional district in 2010, and candidate for attorney general in 2017 and 2021[30]
Endorsements
[edit]Hung Cao
- U.S. Presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[31]
- Individuals
- Oliver North, former President of the National Rifle Association of America (2018–2019),[32] nominee for this seat in 1994
Jonathan Emord
- U.S. representatives
- Ron Paul, former U.S. representative from TX-14 (1976–1977, 1979–1985, 1997–2013) (Libertarian)[33]
- Barry Goldwater Jr., former U.S. representative from CA-20 (1969–1983)[33]
Scott Parkinson
- U.S. senators
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present)
- Jim DeMint, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2005–2013)[34]
- Mike Lee, U.S. senator from Utah (2011–present)[35]
- Tommy Tuberville, U.S. senator from Alabama (2021–present)[36]
- U.S. representatives
- Jim Banks, U.S. representative from Indiana (2017–present)[34]
- Andy Biggs, U.S. representative from Arizona (2017–present)[34]
- Dan Bishop, U.S. representative from North Carolina (2019–present)[34]
- Lauren Boebert, U.S. representative from Colorado (2021–present)[36]
- Josh Brecheen, U.S. representative from Oklahoma (2023–present)[34]
- Eli Crane, U.S. representative from Arizona (2023–present)[34]
- Bob Good. U.S. representative from Virginia (2021–present)[37]
- Byron Donalds, U.S. representative from Florida (2021–present)[35]
- Mary Miller, U.S. representative from Illinois (2021–present)[35]
- Barry Moore, U.S. representative from Alabama (2021–present)[34]
- Anna Paulina Luna, U.S. representative from Florida (2023–present)[34]
- Scott Perry, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania (2013–present)[35]
- August Pfluger, U.S. representative from Texas (2021–present)[35]
- Matt Rosendale, U.S. representative from Montana (2021–present)[34]
- Jason Smith, U.S. representative from Missouri (2013–present)[35]
- Individuals
- David Bossie, president of Citizens United[38]
- Organizations
Chuck Smith
- State legislators
- Amanda Chase, former state senator from the 11th district (2016–2024)[39]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of May 29, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Hung Cao (R) | $2,508,562 | $2,398,405 | $202,637 |
| Jonathan Emord (R) | $932,828[a] | $897,923 | $34,905 |
| Eddie Garcia (R) | $340,558 | $315,309 | $25,249 |
| Scott Parkinson (R) | $930,240 | $601,089 | $329,151 |
| Chuck Smith (R) | $556,762 | $536,262 | $20,499 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[25] | |||
Results
[edit]
Cao
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Garcia
- 30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Hung Cao | 168,868 | 61.79% | |
| Republican | Scott Parkinson | 29,940 | 10.95% | |
| Republican | Eddie Garcia | 26,777 | 9.80% | |
| Republican | Chuck Smith | 24,108 | 8.82% | |
| Republican | Jonathan Emord | 23,614 | 8.64% | |
| Total votes | 273,307 | 100.00% | ||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[41] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[42] | Solid D | August 9, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[43] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[44] | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[45] | Likely D | August 26, 2024 |
| CNalysis[46] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
| RealClearPolitics[47] | Likely D | August 5, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[48] | Likely D | October 23, 2024 |
| 538[49] | Likely D | November 2, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
[edit]Tim Kaine (D)
- U.S. representatives
- Denver Riggleman, former Republican U.S. representative from Virginia's 5th congressional district (2019–2021) (Independent)[50]
- Organizations
- Newspapers
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Tim Kaine (D) | $15,990,927 | $10,698,945 | $7,811,645 |
| Hung Cao (R) | $3,051,361 | $2,729,334 | $414,508 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[25] | |||
Polling
[edit]- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Hung Cao (R) |
Undecided [b] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 51.9% | 41.2% | 6.9% | Kaine +10.7% |
| RealClearPolitics | October 19 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 52.0% | 41.2% | 6.8% | Kaine +10.8% |
| 270toWin | October 26 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 51.2% | 41.8% | 7.0% | Kaine +9.4% |
| TheHill/DDHQ | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 52.2% | 42.4% | 6.4% | Kaine +9.8% |
| Average | 51.8% | 41.6% | 6.6% | Kaine +10.2% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Hung Cao (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | November 1–4, 2024 | 2,202 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 53% | 44% | 1%[d] | 2% |
| Research Co. | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 53% | 41% | – | 6% |
| Chism Strategies | October 28–30, 2024 | 520 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% |
| Cygnal (R) | October 27–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 42% | – | 7% |
| Roanoke College | October 25–29, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 40% | 3%[e] | 6% |
| ActiVote | October 2–28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
| The Washington Post/ George Mason University |
October 19–23, 2024 | 1,004 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 41% | 1%[f] | 4% |
| 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 40% | 1%[f] | 5% | ||
| ActiVote | September 9 – October 14, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 56% | 44% | – | – |
| Christopher Newport University | September 28 – October 4, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 55% | 35% | 5%[g] | 5% |
| Emerson College[A] | September 22–24, 2024 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 41% | 2% | 6% |
| Research America[B] | September 3–9, 2024 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 38% | 8%[h] | 9% |
| 756 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 43% | 2% | 6% | ||
| The Washington Post/ George Mason University |
September 4–8, 2024 | 1,005 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 41% | 1%[f] | 5% |
| 1,005 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 41% | – | 5% | ||
| ActiVote | July 24 – September 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
| Roanoke College | August 12–16, 2024 | 691 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 38% | 10%[i] | 3% |
| Emerson College[C] | July 14–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | 4%[j] | 8% |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | July 14–15, 2024 | 301 (A) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 33% | 5%[k] | 20% |
| 265 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 34% | 4%[l] | 19% | ||
| July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (A) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 32% | 7%[m] | 15% | |
| 544 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 34% | 6%[n] | 13% | ||
| NYT/Siena College | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 52% | 34% | – | 14% |
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 36% | – | 12% | ||
| Virginia Commonwealth University | June 24 – July 3, 2024 | 809 (A) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 38% | 14%[o] | – |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)[D] |
April 26–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 36% | 1% | 16% |
Hypothetical polling
- Tim Kaine vs. Glenn Youngkin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Glenn Youngkin (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 47% | 42% | 3%[p] | 7% |
| University of Mary Washington | September 6–12, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 39% | 10%[q] | 10% |
Debates
[edit]| No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Kaine | Cao | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 2, 2024 | NSU | Tom Schaad & Deanna Allbrittin[54] | YouTube | P | P |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tim Kaine (incumbent) | ||||
| Republican | Hung Cao | ||||
| Total votes | 100.00% | ||||
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ $528,167 of this total was self-funded by Emord
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
- ^ "Refused" with 2%; "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ a b c "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ "Refused" with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "None/Wouldn't Vote" with 5%
- ^ "Someone else" with 10%
- ^ "Someone else" with 4%
- ^ "Another party" with 5%
- ^ "Another party" with 4%
- ^ "Another party" with 7%
- ^ "Another party" with 6%
- ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 8%; "Someone else" with 6%
- ^ None/Would not vote with 2%, other with 1%
- ^ None/Would not vote with 5%, other with 5%
- Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
- ^ Salamy, Elissa (November 5, 2024). "Kaine wins re-election for Virginia Senate". Fox 5 Washington D.C. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
- ^ Manchester, Julia (November 5, 2024). "Tim Kaine wins reelection in Virginia". The Hill. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
- ^ "Live election results: 2020 Virginia results". www.politico.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ Oliver, Ned (March 3, 2021). "Democrats have controlled Virginia government for two years. Here's what they've done". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ "GOP sweeps statewide races with 2 down-ballot wins". AP NEWS. November 2, 2021. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ "Virginia Elections Database » 2012 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ "Virginia | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ a b Flynn, Meagan; Vozzella, Laura (January 20, 2023). "Va. Sen. Tim Kaine says he will seek another term". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
- ^ a b "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine for Reelection". Giffords. February 22, 2024. Retrieved February 26, 2024.
- ^ a b "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
- ^ "Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨". www.instagram.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
- ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
- ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
- ^ "Tim Kaine". JStreetPAC. October 16, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
- ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Endorsed Candidates". LGBT+ Democrats of Virginia. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
- ^ NCPSSM. "National Seniors' Advocacy Group Endorses Sen. Tim Kaine for Re-Election". NCPSSM. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
- ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements | Sierra Club Independent Action". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Virginia - COMPAC Endorsements". United Mine Workers of America. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
- ^ a b c "2024 Election United States Senate - Virginia". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- ^ Minock, Nick (July 18, 2023). "Hung Cao launches website and files paperwork to run for 2024 US Senate race in Virginia". WJLA.com.
- ^ Churchill, Victoria (January 31, 2023). "Constitutional Litigator Jonathan Emord Announces U.S. Senate Run". The Republican Standard. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
- ^ Rankin, Sarah (January 20, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia to seek reelection". AP News. Archived from the original on January 20, 2023. Retrieved April 21, 2023.
- ^ Rankin, Sarah (April 3, 2023). "Scott Parkinson runs for Tim Kaine's seat". The Virginia Pilot. Archived from the original on April 3, 2023.
- ^ Martz, Michael (August 5, 2023). "Meet the 8 Republicans (and counting) who want to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
- ^ Iannelli, Nick (May 27, 2024). "Republican US Senate candidate in Virginia 'honored' to receive Trump endorsement". WTOP. Retrieved May 27, 2024.
- ^ "A true patriot's endosement". PoliticalEmails. Archived from the original on February 23, 2024. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
- ^ a b "U.S. Senate Candidate Jonathan Emord Receives the Endorsements of Ron Paul and Barry Goldwater, Jr". FOX 59. March 14, 2023. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Johnson, Julia (May 2023). "Tim Kaine GOP challenger holds fundraiser with Trump and DeSantis supporters alike". Washington Examiner. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
- ^ a b c d e f Hazard, Charlotte. "Ex-DeSantis Hill staffer runs for U.S. Senate, says pandemic was his call for change". Just the News. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
- ^ a b Shipley, Jonathan (May 31, 2023). "Former Baraboo resident eyes Virginia Senate". News Republic. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
- ^ Martz, Michael (February 2, 2024). "Here's how much money Sen. Tim Kaine has raised in bid for new term". Richmond Times Dispatch. Retrieved April 21, 2024.
- ^ a b "David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Scott Parkinson for U.S. Senate from Virginia". cupvf.com. April 24, 2023. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
- ^ Cantor, Dave (March 20, 2024). "These are the GOP candidates hoping to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine". VPM. Retrieved May 5, 2024.
- ^ "June 18, 2024 Republican Party Primary Official Results". Virginia Department of Elections.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
- ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
- ^ Vozzella, Laura (October 16, 2024). "Former GOP Rep. Riggleman endorses Democratic Sen. Kaine of Virginia". The Washington Post. Retrieved October 16, 2024.
- ^ "CASA in Action Announces Its 2024 Virginia General Election Endorsements". CASA in Action (Press release). August 23, 2024. Retrieved September 1, 2024.
- ^ "People For Endorses Seven New and Incumbent Senate Candidates in "Defend the Senate" Campaign". People for the American Way (Press release). July 29, 2024. Retrieved July 29, 2024.
- ^ "Opinion | The Post endorses Tim Kaine for U.S. Senate in Virginia". The Washington Post. September 23, 2024. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
- ^ Alvarez-Wertz, Jane (October 2, 2024). "Rules for the Virginia Senate Debate". WAVY TV 10. Archived from the original on October 3, 2024. Retrieved October 4, 2024.
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites
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