Años Periodo Precio Demanda Ln(Demanda)

2003 1 2.0 950 6.8565

2004 2 2.5 980 6.8876 1,200

2005 3 3.0 970 6.8773 f(x) = 8.8308270676

2006 4 3.1 1,050 6.9565
R² = 0.62275365232
2007 5 3.2 1,000 6.9078 1,150

2008 6 3.9 1,090 6.9939

2009 7 4.0 990 6.8977
1,100
2010 8 4.8 1,070 6.9754
2011 9 5.1 1,100 7.0031
2012 10 5.5 1,105 7.0076
1,050
2013 11 5.1 1,060 6.9660
2014 12 6.3 1,140 7.0388
2015 13 6.7 1,130 7.0300
1,000
2016 14 6.0 1,050 6.9565
2017 15 6.3 1,120 7.0211
2018 16 6.9 1,170 7.0648 950
0 5 10
2019 17 7.5 1,130 7.0300
2020 18 7.0 1,070 6.9754
2021 19 6.8 1,170 7.0648
De
2022 20 7.1 1,110 7.0121
1,200
21 1,165
f(x) = 980.79655166
22 1,174 R² = 0.62447671450
23 1,183
1,150
24 1,192
25 1,201
26 1,210
1,100
27 1,218
28 1,227
29 1,236
1,050
30 1,245

1,000

950
0 5 1

De
1,200
 De
1,200

1,150 f(x) = 67.38282581

R² = 0.6842551178
1,100

1,050

1,000

950
0 5 1

D
1,200

1,150 f(x) = 934.5805609

R² = 0.6965658387
1,100

1,050

1,000

950
0 5 1

Dem
1,200

1,150

f(x) = − 0.60121895
1,100
+ 933.732456140
1,200

1,150

f(x) = − 0.60121895
1,100
+ 933.732456140
R² = 0.6989585318
1,050

1,000

950
0 5 1
 Demanda (Lineal) Lineal
00
f(x) = 8.83082706766917 x + 980.026315789474 Exponencial
R² = 0.622753652320056
Logarítmico
50
Potencial (Multip

00

50

00

50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Demanda (Exponencial)
00
f(x) = 980.79655166268 exp( 0.00835932627830809 x )
R² = 0.624476714500874
50

00

50

00

50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Demanda (Logarítmica)
00
 Demanda (Logarítmica)
00

50 f(x) = 67.3828258180704 ln(x) + 930.115326506221

R² = 0.684255117815881
00

50

00

50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Demanda (Potencial)
00

50 f(x) = 934.580560912614 x^0.0642674683613218

R² = 0.696565838744538
00

50

00

50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Demanda (Polinómica G2)

200

150

f(x) = − 0.601218956482118 x² + 21.4564251537937 x

100
+ 933.73245614035
200

150

f(x) = − 0.601218956482118 x² + 21.4564251537937 x

100
+ 933.73245614035
R² = 0.698958531836935
050

000

50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Lineal 𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎=𝛽 ̂_1+𝛽 ̂_2∗𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑𝑜𝑠
Exponencial 𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎=𝑒^(𝛽 ̂_1+𝛽 ̂_2∗𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑𝑜𝑠) ó 𝐿𝑛(𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎)=𝛽 ̂_1+𝛽 ̂_2
Logarítmico 𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎=𝛽 ̂_1+𝛽 ̂_2∗𝐿𝑛(𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑𝑜𝑠)
Potencial (Multiplicativa) 𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎=𝛼∗ 〖𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑𝑜𝑠〗 ^(𝛽 ̂_2 ) ó 𝐿𝑛(𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎)=𝛽 ̂_

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.789147421157831
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.622753652320055
R^2 ajustado 0.601795521893392
Error típico 41.776334372673
Observaciones 20

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 1 51859.0319548872
Residuos 18 31414.7180451128
Total 19 83273.75

Coeficientes Error típico

Intercepción 980.026315789474 19.4064214356611
Periodo 8.83082706766917 1.62001676108352

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico Demanda Residuos

1 988.857142857143 -38.8571428571428
2 997.687969924812 -17.687969924812
3 1006.51879699248 -36.5187969924812
4 1015.34962406015 34.6503759398497
5 1024.18045112782 -24.1804511278194
6 1033.01127819549 56.9887218045112
7 1041.84210526316 -51.8421052631579
8 1050.67293233083 19.3270676691729
 9 1059.5037593985 40.4962406015038
10 1068.33458646617 36.6654135338347
11 1077.16541353383 -17.1654135338345
12 1085.9962406015 54.0037593984962
13 1094.82706766917 35.1729323308271
14 1103.65789473684 -53.6578947368421
15 1112.48872180451 7.51127819548879
16 1121.31954887218 48.6804511278197
17 1130.15037593985 -0.150375939849482
18 1138.98120300752 -68.9812030075188
19 1147.81203007519 22.187969924812
20 1156.64285714286 -46.6428571428571

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.790238390930784
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.624476714500874
R^2 ajustado 0.603614309750922
Error típico 0.0394009014711357
Observaciones 20

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 1 0.0464690933250961
Residuos 18 0.0279437586612866
Total 19 0.0744128519863827

Coeficientes Error típico

Intercepción 6.88836504933429 0.0183029581310988
Periodo 0.00835932627830809 0.0015279014241803
6.88836856518195

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico Ln(Demanda) Residuos

1 6.8967243756126 -0.0402623910180111
2 6.90508370189091 -0.0175311302262884
3 6.91344302816921 -0.0361469566717858
4 6.92180235444752 0.0347430887040465
5 6.93016168072583 -0.0224064017436936
6 6.93852100700414 0.055411968219051
7 6.94688033328245 -0.0491753901538106
8 6.95523965956075 0.0201742678951975
 9 6.96359898583906 0.0394664729473986
10 6.97195831211737 0.035642301834482
11 6.98031763839568 -0.0142934512895661
12 6.98867696467399 0.0501065767145548
13 6.9970362909523 0.0329366207540911
14 7.0053956172306 -0.0488501740790337
15 7.01375494350891 0.0073290207802286
16 7.02211426978722 0.0426447580045828
17 7.03047359606553 -0.0005006843591415
18 7.03883292234384 -0.0634189948878836
19 7.04719224862214 0.017566779169659
20 7.05555157490045 -0.0434362805940713

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.865287636429577
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.748722693757883
R^2 ajustado 0.719160657729399
Error típico 35.0837683104808
Observaciones 20

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 2 62348.9464193205
Residuos 17 20924.8035806795
Total 19 83273.75

Coeficientes Error típico

Intercepción 866.051993902029 42.3066564213641
Periodo -6.02560198678377 5.26774354753978
Precio 52.5227289803892 17.9915070755111
𝑑𝑜𝑠) ó 𝐿𝑛(𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎)=𝛽 ̂_1+𝛽 ̂_2∗𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑𝑜𝑠
𝑑𝑜𝑠)
〗 ^(𝛽 ̂_2 ) ó 𝐿𝑛(𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎)=𝛽 ̂_1+𝛽 ̂_2∗𝐿𝑛(𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑𝑜𝑠)

Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F

51859.0319548872 29.714179635 0.000035
1745.26211361738

Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%

50.5001047740097 0.000000 939.25493727309 1020.7976943 939.254937273
5.45107142086778 0.000035 5.4272981487489 12.234355987 5.42729814875
Menores a 0.05
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
0.0464690933250961 29.933112792 3.3882375252E-05
0.00155243103673814

Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%

376.352554597727 0.000000 6.8499119611951 6.9268181375 6.8499119612
5.47111622910664 0.000034 0.0051493245009 0.0115693281 0.0051493245
Menores a 0.05
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
31174.4732096603 25.327169382 7.9671459883E-06
1230.8707988635

Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%

20.470821075444 0.0000 776.79275113819 955.31123667 776.792751138
-1.14386775521711 0.2685 -17.139569383414 5.0883654098 -17.139569383
2.91930680181205 0.0096 14.563967083778 90.481490877 14.5639670838
Superior 95.0%
1020.797694306
12.23435598659
 Superior 95.0%
6.926818137474
0.011569328056
 Superior 95.0%
955.3112366659
5.088365409847
90.481490877
Años Periodo Precio Demanda
2003 1 2.0 950
2004 2 2.5 980
2005 3 3.0 970
2006 4 3.1 1,050 Demanda
2007 5 3.2 1,000 1,200
2008 6 3.9 1,090
2009 7 4.0 990
1,150 f(x) = 32.6410328374965 x + 904.975091215268
2010 8 4.8 1,070 R² = 0.729382715489737
2011 9 5.1 1,100
2012 10 5.5 1,105 1,100
2013 11 5.1 1,060
2014 12 6.3 1,140
1,050
2015 13 6.7 1,130
2016 14 6.0 1,050
2017 15 6.3 1,120 1,000

2018 16 6.9 1,170

2019 17 7.5 1,130 950
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
2020 18 7.0 1,070
2021 19 6.8 1,170 Precio

2022 20 7.1 1,110

 Demanda Precio
8.0
f(x) = 0.282857142857143 x + 2.17
R² = 0.933297582294214
74965 x + 904.975091215268 7.0
89737

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

Precio 2.0
0 5 10 15
 Precio

143 x + 2.17
214

10 15 20 25 30
Años Periodo Precio Demanda Modelo Lineal P
2003 1 2.0 950
2004 2 2.5 980
2005 3 3.0 970 X
2006 4 3.1 1,050 21
2007 5 3.2 1,000 22
2008 6 3.9 1,090 23
2009 7 4.0 990 24
2010 8 4.8 1,070 25
2011 9 5.1 1,100 26
2012 10 5.5 1,105 27
2013 11 5.1 1,060 28
2014 12 6.3 1,140 29
2015 13 6.7 1,130 30
2016 14 6.0 1,050
2017 15 6.3 1,120 Estadísticas de la regresión
2018 16 6.9 1,170 Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.86528764
2019 17 7.5 1,130 Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.74872269
2020 18 7.0 1,070 R^2 ajustado 0.71916066
2021 19 6.8 1,170 Error típico 35.0837683
2022 20 7.1 1,110 Observaciones 20
2023 21 7.8 1,149
2024 22 8.0 1,154 ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
2025 23 8.2 1,160 Grados de libertad
2026 24 8.5 1,166 Regresión 2
2027 25 8.7 1,171 Residuos 17
2028 26 8.9 1,176 Total 19
2029 27 9.1 1,182
2030 28 9.3 1,187 Coeficientes
2031 29 9.5 1,192 Intercepción 866.051994
2032 30 9.7 1,197 Periodo -6.02560199
Precio 52.522729
 Modelo Lineal Precio vs. Periodo Modelo Potencial Precio vs. Period
95.00% 95.00% 95.00%
Predicciones Límite Predicción Límite Predicciones Límite
Y Inferior Superior Inferior X Y Inferior
8.11 7.04526265 9.17473735 7.66143186 21 7.46659603 6.24918215
8.39285714 7.3137308 9.47198349 7.9111296 22 7.63283244 6.3847372
8.67571429 7.58110656 9.77032202 8.16023991 23 7.79513486 6.51685653
8.95857143 7.84743559 10.0697073 8.40887095 24 7.95376162 6.64576938
9.24142857 8.11276387 10.3700933 8.65710695 25 8.10894412 6.77168102
9.52428571 8.37713728 10.6714342 8.90501414 26 8.2608906 6.894776
9.80714286 8.64060121 10.9736845 9.15264522 27 8.40978926 7.01522104
10.09 8.90320025 11.2767998 9.40004246 28 8.55581082 7.13316728
10.3728571 9.1649779 11.5807364 9.64724014 29 8.69911077 7.24875224
10.6557143 9.4259764 11.8854522 9.89426631 30 8.83983115 7.36210149

Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
62348.9464 31174.4732 25.3271694 7.96715E-06
20924.8036 1230.8708
83273.75

Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

42.3066564 20.4708211 0.0000 776.792751
5.26774355 -1.14386776 0.2685 -17.1395694
17.9915071 2.9193068 0.0096 14.5639671
Potencial Precio vs. Periodo
95.00%
Predicción Límite Confianza
Superior Inferior Superior
8.92117639 7.04618792 7.91208762
9.12490666 7.1908444 8.10198744
9.32414689 7.3316197 8.2879541
9.51918737 7.46879232 8.47022133
9.71028828 7.60260895 8.64900131
9.89768392 7.73328937 8.82448726
10.0815862 7.8610304 8.9968556
10.2621873 7.98600913 9.16626787
10.4396627 8.10838562 9.33287239
10.6141724 8.2283051 9.49680569
 Regresión Simple Demanda vs Periodo Simple Demanda vs Precio
Años Periodo Precio Múltiple Log Precio Pot Precio Log Periodo
2003 1 2.0 950
2004 2 2.5 980
2005 3 3.0 970
2006 4 3.1 1,050
2007 5 3.2 1,000
2008 6 3.9 1,090
2009 7 4.0 990
2010 8 4.8 1,070
2011 9 5.1 1,100
2012 10 5.5 1,105
2013 11 5.1 1,060
2014 12 6.3 1,140
2015 13 6.7 1,130
2016 14 6.0 1,050
2017 15 6.3 1,120
2018 16 6.9 1,170
2019 17 7.5 1,130
2020 18 7.0 1,070
2021 19 6.8 1,170
2022 20 7.1 1,110
2023 21 7.8 1,149 1,135 1,137 1,143
2024 22 8.0 1,154 1,138 1,140 1,147
2025 23 8.2 1,160 1,141 1,143 1,150
2026 24 8.5 1,166 1,144 1,146 1,156
2027 25 8.7 1,171 1,147 1,149 1,159
2028 26 8.9 1,176 1,150 1,152 1,162
2029 27 9.1 1,182 1,152 1,155 1,165
2030 28 9.3 1,187 1,155 1,158 1,169
2031 29 9.5 1,192 1,157 1,160 1,172
2032 30 9.7 1,197 1,159 1,163 1,175

Pronósticos Diferentes Modelos

1,250

1,200

1,150
emanda

1,100
 1,200

1,150

Demanda
1,100

1,050

1,000

950
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Periodo

Múltiple Log Precio Pot Precio Log Periodo Pot Periodo

ple Demanda vs Precio Modelo Logarítmico Demanda vs. Periodo
Pot Periodo 95.00% 95.00%
Predicciones Límite Predicción Límite
X Y Inferior Superior Inferior
21 1135.26385 1050.3397 1220.18801 1107.61285
22 1138.3985 1053.20712 1223.58988 1109.93736
23 1141.39379 1055.93569 1226.85188 1112.14397
24 1144.26157 1058.53779 1229.98536 1114.24437
25 1147.01228 1061.02426 1233.00029 1116.24859
26 1149.65508 1063.4046 1235.90555 1118.16524
27 1152.19813 1065.68723 1238.70903 1120.00183
28 1154.64868 1067.87959 1241.41777 1121.76493
29 1157.01324 1069.98834 1244.03813 1123.46031
30 1159.29762 1072.01941 1246.57582 1125.09307

Modelo Logarítmico Demanda vs. Precio

95.00% 95.00%
Predicciones Límite Predicción Límite
X Y Inferior Superior Inferior
7.8 1142.99715 1066.16701 1219.8273 1116.96997
8 1146.68071 1069.55965 1223.80178 1119.80691
Promedio 8.2 1150.27331 1072.85533 1227.69129 1122.55894
1,145 1,142 8.5 1155.50117 1077.62817 1233.37416 1126.54005
1,149 1,146 8.7 1158.88487 1080.70307 1237.06668 1129.10338
1,153 1,150 8.9 1162.19167 1083.69736 1240.68598 1131.5992
1,158 1,154 9.1 1165.42498 1086.615 1244.23497 1134.03141
1,162 1,158 9.3 1168.588 1089.45964 1247.71636 1136.40353
1,166 1,161 9.5 1171.68371 1092.2347 1251.13271 1138.71876
1,169 1,165 9.7 1174.71492 1094.94338 1254.48646 1140.98004
1,173 1,168
1,176 1,172
1,180 1,175
 30 35

Pot Periodo
. Periodo Modelo Potencial Demanda vs. Periodo
95.00% 95.00%
Confianza Predicciones Límite Predicción Límite Confianza
Superior X Y Inferior Superior Inferior Superior
1162.91486 21 1136.56016 1050.54389 1229.61926 1107.80704 1166.05958
1166.85965 22 1139.96325 1053.42853 1233.60643 1110.29017 1170.42936
1170.64361 23 1143.22456 1056.18119 1237.44145 1112.6531 1174.636
1174.27878 24 1146.35578 1058.81329 1241.13627 1114.90747 1178.69116
1177.77597 25 1149.36723 1061.33485 1244.70144 1117.06329 1182.60534
1181.14492 26 1152.26799 1063.75469 1248.14635 1119.1292 1186.38807
1184.39442 27 1155.06618 1066.08062 1251.47936 1121.11272 1190.04794
1187.53243 28 1157.76903 1068.31959 1254.70798 1123.02046 1193.59279
1190.56616 29 1160.38301 1070.47783 1257.83897 1124.85822 1197.02972
1193.50216 30 1162.91397 1072.56089 1260.87843 1126.63118 1200.36523

s. Precio Modelo Potencial Demanda vs. Precio

95.00% 95.00%
Confianza Predicciones Límite Predicción Límite Confianza
Superior X Y Inferior Superior Inferior Superior
1169.02434 7.8 1144.73235 1065.85454 1229.44745 1117.37841 1172.75593
1173.55452 8 1148.74844 1069.3048 1234.09432 1120.41674 1177.79656
1177.98769 8.2 1152.67892 1072.66746 1238.65853 1123.37248 1182.74991
1184.46228 8.5 1158.4225 1077.55665 1245.35697 1127.66284 1190.0212
1188.66637 8.7 1162.15525 1080.71866 1249.72842 1130.43438 1194.76624
1192.78415 8.9 1165.81478 1083.80698 1254.02782 1133.13977 1199.43201
1196.81856 9.1 1169.40413 1086.82498 1258.2578 1135.7827 1204.02081
1200.77247 9.3 1172.92613 1089.77582 1262.42084 1138.36651 1208.53494
1204.64865 9.5 1176.38346 1092.66244 1266.51929 1140.89424 1212.97663
1208.4498 9.7 1179.77863 1095.4876 1270.55535 1143.36866 1217.34806