Tobias A. Huber

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Management, Technology and Economics, Graduate Student

Institute for New Economic Thinking, Young Scholars Initiative, Complexity Economics Working Group Coordinator

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I am an independent researcher and investor. My PhD project at the Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks at the Department of Management, Technology and Economics at ETH Zurich examined the nature of technological innovation, financial bubbles and crashes, and the emergence of Bitcoin. Our research has been featured in MIT Technology Review, CNBC, and Bloomberg. I was also a coordinator of the Complexity Economics group at the Institute for New Economic Thinking.

I am working with Byrne Hobart on a book on technological stagnation. We are approaching the slowing productivity growth in science and technology by examining why progress has stagnated in the last few decades and how to re-accelerate innovation.

I have an academic background in philosophy and economics.

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Kansas State University

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Vincent Blok

Wageningen University

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University of California, Berkeley

Scott Fitzpatrick

University of Oregon

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Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul

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Goldsmiths, University of London

Emir Otluoglu

Istanbul University

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Talks by Tobias A. Huber

Definite Optimism, Social Bubbles, and Technological Innovation

Decoding Bitcoin's Value: Money, Technological Innovation, and Self-Sovereignty

The Bitcoin Standard: A Workshop with Saifedean Ammous

Financial Bubbles as Innovation Accelerators

Workshop and Panel Discussion on Financial Bubbles and Technological Innovation

Panel Discussion on Complexity Economics – Institute for New Economic Thinking Plenary 2016

The Physics of Finance? Modeling Financial Market Reflexivity

Quantifying Reflexivity in Financial Markets

Modeling Financial Market Crashes: Phase Transitions, Universality, and Criticality

Can We Predict Financial Markets? Black Swans vs. Dragon Kings

Papers by Tobias A. Huber

Boom, Bust, and Bitcoin: Bitcoin-Bubbles As Innovation Accelerators

Journal of Economic Issues (forthcoming), 2022

Bitcoin represents one of the most interesting technological breakthroughs and socioeconomic expe... more Bitcoin represents one of the most interesting technological breakthroughs and socioeconomic experiments of the last decades. In this paper, we examine the role of speculative bubbles in the process of Bitcoin's technological adoption by analyzing its social dynamics. We trace Bitcoin's genesis and dissect the nature of its techno-economic innovation. In particular, we present an analysis of the techno-economic feedback loops that drive Bitcoin's price and network effects. Based on our analysis of Bitcoin, we test and further refine the Social Bubble Hypothesis, which holds that bubbles constitute an essential component in the process of technological innovation. We argue that a hierarchy of repeating and exponentially increasing series of bubbles and hype cycles, which has occurred over the past decade since its inception, has bootstrapped Bitcoin into existence.

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Manias and Mimesis: Applying René Girard’s Mimetic Theory to Financial Bubbles

by Tobias A. Huber and Byrne Hobart

While next-generation models in quantitative finance have illuminated the origins of market bubbl... more While next-generation models in quantitative finance have illuminated the origins of market bubbles and crashes by incorporating herding and imitation behavior, the underlying cause of imitation in financial markets remains elusive. Given that imitation is at the core of bubbles, we need a deeper understanding of the phenomenon. In this paper, we apply René Girard’s mimetic theory in a series of case studies of historical speculative manias, from the 1840s railway mania to the ICO boom and collapse, and even to present-day mimesis-driven market distortions.

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"Salvation and Profit": Deconstructing the Clean-Tech Bubble

Technology Analysis & Strategic Management (forthcoming), 2022

From 2004 to 2008, a bubble formed in clean technologies, such as solar, biofuels, batteries, and... more From 2004 to 2008, a bubble formed in clean technologies, such as solar, biofuels, batteries, and other renewable energy sources. In this paper, we analyze this clean-tech bubble through the lens of the Social Bubble Hypothesis, which holds that strong social interactions between enthusiastic supporters weave a network of reinforcing feedbacks that lead to widespread endorsement and extraordinary commitment by those involved. We present a detailed synthesis of the development of the clean-tech bubble, its history, and the role of venture capital and government funding in catalyzing it. In particular, we dissect the underlying narrative that was fueling the bubble. As bubbles can be essential in the process of accelerating the development of emerging technologies and diffusion of technological innovations, we present evidence that the clean-tech bubble constituted an example of an innovation-accelerating process.

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Are Bitcoin Bubbles Predictable? Combining a Generalized Metcalfe's Law and the LPPLS Model

Royal Society Open Science, 2019

We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (... more We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe’s law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least four occasions, by bubbles that grow and burst. In these bubbles, we detect a universal super-exponential unsustainable growth. We model this universal pattern with the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model, which parsimoniously captures diverse positive feedback phenomena, such as herding and imitation. The LPPLS model is shown to provide an ex-ante warning of market instabilities, quantifying a high crash hazard and probabilistic bracket of the crash time consistent with the actual corrections; although, as always, the precise time and trigger being exogenous and unpredictable. Looking forward, our analysis identifies a substantial but not unprecedented overvaluation in the price of bitcoin, suggesting many months of volatile sideways bitcoin prices ahead (from the time of writing, March 2018).

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Can there be a Physics of Financial Markets? Methodological Reflections on Econophysics

The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 2016

We address the question whether there can be a physical science of financial markets. In particul... more We address the question whether there can be a physical science of financial markets. In particular, we examine the argument that, given the reflexivity of financial markets (i.e., the feedback mechanism between expectations and prices), there is a fundamental difference between social and physical systems, which demands a new scientific method. By providing a selective history of the mutual cross-fertilization between physics and economics, we reflect on the methodological differences of how models and theories get constructed in these fields. We argue that the novel conception of financial markets as complex adaptive systems is one of the most important contributions of econophysics and show that this field of research provides the methods, concepts, and tools to scientifically account for reflexivity. We conclude by arguing that a new science of economic and financial systems should not only be physics-based, but needs to integrate findings from other scientific fields, so that a truly multi-disciplinary complex systems science of financial markets can be built.

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