Free NFL Predictions, Tips & Best Bets

This matchup is the biggest moneyline of the week with the Washington Commanders travelling up to Detroit to take on the number one seed Lions. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has had a historic first season in the NFL, which was capped off with a win in his first playoff appearance. Winning this week against the NFL’s number one scoring offense (33.2 PPG) would open conversations of one of the greatest rookie seasons ever. With Detroit’s defensive injuries Daniels should be able to move the ball freely with confidence much like in the wildcard round. We think this week’s matchup could end up being a shootout and if Daniels can hold his nerve using both his arm and legs, then the Commanders could upset the Lions.

The Los Angeles Rams fresh off upsetting the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football come into Philadelphia on Sunday afternoon looking to upset the Eagles and move onto the NFC Championship. The Rams defense on Monday was again dominant, only allowing the Vikings to score 9 points and they also recorded a playoff record 9 sacks. Philadelphia’s passing offense struggled to generate significant production against the Packers and if the Rams defense can again play to the standard they have set since Week 15, they haven’t allowed more than 9 points in a game when playing starters since then. If the Rams defense can extend this streak then the Rams should be able to be able to progress to the conference championship.

The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens meet in the final divisional round matchup of the week with an opportunity for either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to move to their second AFC Championship appearance. The strength of these two teams all season long has been their offenses, which both averaged over 30 points per game in the regular season (Bills 30.9 PPG, 2nd most; Ravens 30.5 PPG, 3rd). These two teams are so evenly matched we think the home advantage may prove vital as it did back in 2021 when these two teams met in the divisional round in Buffalo. We think Josh Allen will right the wrongs of losing the past two AFC Championships and win this week.

In the regular season matchup between these two teams in Week 16, the game wasn’t very high scoring but still would’ve cleared this week’s total match points line. This week we expect the game to be a similar result with the Houston Texans seemingly bouncing back offensively in the wildcard weekend, putting up 32 points on the Los Angeles Chargers. We think that both offenses are more than capable of scoring enough points to clear this week’s line.

Despite the Kansas City Chiefs’ league best 15-2 record and another number one seed, Patrick Mahomes had arguably the worst season of his career as a starter to date with career lows in passing yards (3928 passing yards), yards per attempt (6.8 YPA), and passing touchdowns (26). This week he will face a dangerous Houston pass defense that is the only team to rank in the top six for passing yards allowed per game (201 YPG, 6th), interceptions (19, 2nd), and sacks (49, T-4th). We expect the Houston Texans’ defense to keep Mahomes under his relatively large passing line this week.

The Houston Texans’ gameplan this week to beat Patrick Mahomes may be to keep him off the field as much as possible. To do this the Texans must hope their defense can force some stops and for Joe Mixon and the offensive line to establish an early dominant run game. Mixon has had a solid first year in Houston, still managing to achieve over 1000 rushing yards despite missing three games due to injury. We expect the Texans to really commit to the run game this week and as a result Mixon will clear his rushing line.

Veteran tight end Travis Kelce has had one of the quietest seasons of his whole career this season, having career lows in receiving touchdowns (3) and average yards per reception (8.6 YPR). Many have been speculating that Kelce has been saving himself for the post season, where he has been a receiving touchdown monster. Kelce with Mahomes has played 18 playoff games where has totalled 18 touchdowns in these games. This week we think Kelce will continue this impressive streak and score a receiving touchdown.

Terry McLaurin has been in the NFL for six seasons and has been a productive receiver, but this season with Jayden Daniels quarterback he has had his best season in terms of receiving touchdowns by far. In the regular season McLaurin caught a career best 13 touchdowns (2nd most in the NFL) and he added his first playoff receiving touchdown last week. Including last week’s playoff game, he has 10 receiving touchdowns across his last 10 games and we expect him to add another receiving touchdown this week.

Second year running back Jahmyr Gibbs has had a historic season in Detroit rushing for the fifth most yards in the NFL with 1412 yards at an impressive 5.6 yards per carry (3rd most amongst starting quarterbacks). This week he faces the Washington Commanders defense who allowed 137.5 rushing yards per game in the regular season (3rd most) at 4.8 yards per carry (T-3rd most). In Jahmyr Gibbs’ last three games he has cleared 100 rushing yards in each of them and we expect him to get close to this again this week, clearing his rushing line in the process.

Jayden Daniels has had an excellent first season in the NFL and is all but locked into the offensive rookie of the year award. In Wildcard he capped off his fantastic rookie season with a win whilst outduelling Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers passing offense. He recorded 268 passing yards (4th highest of his career) at an impressive 68.6% completion percentage. We think Daniels will succeed this week against an injury riddled Detroit defense which has allowed an average of 310 passing yards per game across their last four games.

This week’s total match points line is one of the biggest of the season at over 55 points but we think these two teams have got more than enough offensively to satisfy this line. The Detroit Lions have been the top scoring team in the NFL all season at 33.2 points per game (T-16th highest of all time) and the Washington Commanders really grew into their offense towards the end of the season, scoring 30.2 points per game across their final five games. We expect this game to be a high scoring shootout between two electric offenses.

The strength of these two teams as the season came to a close was their staunch defenses. Excluding Week 18, where both teams rested starters, both teams allowed under 18 points on average per game (Rams, 16 PPG; Eagles, 17.6 PPG) over their last five games. With this game likely to end up below freezing and snow, these defenses may end up being even more impactful and we expect them to, leading to a low scoring game.

Jalen Hurts is once again getting critics from around the league for his lack of production. In Wildcard Weekend, despite the win Hurts passed for under 150 yards (131) which he has done three other times this season. This week we expect the Eagles to commit to the run game again, especially given the weather, and as a result Hurts won’t get enough pass attempts to clear his relatively low passing line this week.

When present for the Los Angeles Rams this season, Puka Nacua has been highly efficient averaging 90 receiving yards per game (3rd highest in NFL). But this week he faces the NFL's best pass defense from the regular season, which allowed the least passing yards per game (174.2 YPG) and per attempt (6.0 YPA). Taking the weather and opposition into account it may be hard for Nacua to reach his high receiving line this week.

AJ Brown has once again been getting the headlines this week for reading a book on the sidelines during a game in which he didn’t see much attention, with season lows in targets (3), receptions (1), and yards (10). This isn’t the first time Brown has been in the media in Philadelphia and in the game straight after, the Eagles has usually silenced rumours with plenty of early targets to him resulting in a receiving touchdown. We expect this to happen again this week and for AJ Brown to catch a touchdown in this week’s matchup.

The Kansas City Chiefs this season are vying for an unprecedented three consecutive Super Bowl Wins, after securing a bye and resting last week the Chiefs open their playoff schedule at home to the Houston Texans. This is the second time these two teams have met this season after playing just before Christmas in Arrowhead, in which the Texans were holding their own before an injury to Tank Dell rocked their offense. The Texans’ offense on wildcard weekend looked good though, scoring 32 points and having a 100 yard rusher in Joe Mixon as well as a 100 yard receiver in Nico Collins. Both Mixon and Collins will be key on Saturday if the Texans are to at least come close to upsetting the Chiefs. If the Texans can again score significant points then the Chiefs offense may need to do something that they have only done twice this season and score at least 30 points. We don’t think Kansas City’s offense will be able to score enough points to completely breakaway from the Texans this week and we think Houston will cover the large spread.

The Washington Commanders have been one of the biggest surprise packages of the NFL this season. Before the season started their win line was only 6.5, but led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels they reached 12 regular season wins and secured a wildcard berth. The season got even better with a win in this wildcard game in Tampa Bay on Sunday Night Football, which now means they will head to Detroit to take on the Lions. The Lions were resting last week thanks to their bye as a result of being the number one seed in the NFC and will come into this game looking to end Jayden Daniels’ historic season. However, the Commanders and Daniels will be playing without pressure and we expect them to impress on Saturday offensively against the Lions defense which despite the rest is still missing 12 players with injury. We’re taking the Washington Commanders to cover the largest spread of the divisional round this week.

The Los Angeles Ram travel to Philadelphia this week to take on the Eagles for the second time this season. In this matchup in Los Angeles Saquon Barkley took over the game, rushing for 255 yards and two touchdowns. In the Wildcard round against the Green Bay Packers, Saquon and the Eagles’ run game once again took over but the passing game struggled, as it has done most of the season. Jalen Hurts once again threw for under 200 yards, as he has done seven times this season. This week he will face the Rams’ defense which are in elite form, when playing starters they kept their last four opponents under 10 points and last week recorded a playoff record nine sacks. This week’s weather in Philadelphia is looking like it’s going to be a snow game and as a result we think it will become a defensive battle in which the Rams cover the relatively large spread.