20 Peramalan Agribisnis

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Tugas 5
Metoda Regresi
Dwi Nur’aini Putri (2010222003)

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Formal Research Paper Slideshow

01
Metode Regresi Sederhana
Untuk Data pada Soal

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 Data

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Data Untuk Koefisien Regresi

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Result

Ft = 60.25+ 1.138T
Tahun Kwartal Yt T Ft Yt-Ft (Yt-Ft)^2 |Yt-Ft|/Yt*100 Yt-Ft/Yt*100
2020 1 58.3 1 61.388 -3.09 9.54 5.30 -5.30
2 65.2 2 62.527 2.67 7.15 4.10 4.10
3 63.3 3 63.665 -0.37 0.13 0.58 -0.58
4 70.5 4 64.804 5.70 32.45 8.08 8.08
2021 1 61.4 5 65.942 -4.54 20.63 7.40 -7.40
2 68.6 6 67.081 1.52 2.31 2.21 2.21
3 66.8 7 68.219 -1.42 2.01 2.12 -2.12
4 72.6 8 69.358 3.24 10.51 4.47 4.47
2022 1 64.7 9 70.496 -5.80 33.60 8.96 -8.96
2 72.3 10 71.635 0.67 0.44 0.92 0.92
3 70.6 11 72.773 -2.17 4.72 3.08 -3.08
4 77.5 12 73.912 3.59 12.88 4.63 4.63
2023 1 13 75.050 0.00 136.37 51.84 -3.02
2 14 76.188
3 15 77.327 MAD MSE MAPE MPE
4 16 78.465 0.00 11.36 4.32 -0.25 20
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Formal Research Paper Slideshow

02
Metoda Regresi Berganda
Untuk data soal

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 Data Untuk Koefisien Regresi
Tahun Kwartal Yt T D1 D2 D3
2020 1 58.3 1 1 0 0
2 65.2 2 0 1 0
3 63.3 3 0 0 1
4 70.5 4 0 0 0
2021 1 61.4 5 1 0 0
2 68.6 6 0 1 0
3 66.8 7 0 0 1
4 72.6 8 0 0 0
2022 1 64.7 9 1 0 0
2 72.3 10 0 1 0
3 70.6 11 0 0 1
4 77.5 12 0 0 0
 Output SPSS
01 Purpose statement 04 Methodology
You can describe the topic of the You can describe the topic of the
section here section here

02 Hypothesis 05 Analysis
You can describe the topic of the You can describe the topic of the
section here section here

03 Objectives 06 Conclusions

Persamaan Regresi: Ft = 66,58 + 0,869 T - 9,46 D1 - 3,096 D2 - 5,765 D3

 Result and forcesting

Tahun Kwartal t Yt Ft Yt-Ft (Yt-Ft)^2 |Yt-Ft|/Yt*100 Yt-Ft/Yt*100

2020 1 1 58.3 57.989 0.311 0.097 0.166 0.533
2 2 65.2 65.222 -0.022 0.000 0.001 -0.034
3 3 63.3 63.422 -0.122 0.015 0.024 -0.193
4 4 70.5 70.056 0.444 0.197 0.280 0.630
2021 1 5 61.4 61.465 -0.065 0.004 0.007 -0.106
2 6 68.6 68.698 -0.098 0.010 0.014 -0.143
3 7 66.8 66.898 -0.098 0.010 0.014 -0.147
4 8 72.6 73.532 -0.932 0.869 1.196 -1.284
2022 1 9 64.7 64.941 -0.241 0.058 0.090 -0.372
2 10 72.3 72.174 0.126 0.016 0.022 0.174
3 11 70.6 70.374 0.226 0.051 0.072 0.320
4 12 77.5 77.008 0.492 0.242 0.312 0.635
2023 1 13 68.417 0.021 1.568 2.198 0.014
2 14 75.65
3 15 73.85 MAD MSE MAPE MPE
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80.484 0.1307 0.2050 0.1832 0.0012
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Formal Research Paper Slideshow

03
Metode Regresi Sederhana
Untuk Data Tugas sebelumnyal

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Data Untuk Koefisien Regresi
Tahun Kwartal Yt T
2020 1 1.95 1
2 4.12 2
3 5.56 3
4 4.99 4
2021 1 4.23 5
2 6.19 6
3 8.65 7
4 7.36 8
2022 1 1.87 9
2 3.55 10
3 5.23 11
4 4.96 12
 Output SPSS
01 Purpose statement 04 Methodology
You can describe the topic of the You can describe the topic of the
section here section here

02 Hypothesis 05 Analysis
You can describe the topic of the You can describe the topic of the
section here section here

03 Objectives 06 Conclusions

= 4.314 = 0.088 Ft = 4.314 + 0.088T

 The slide title goes here!

Do you know what helps you make your point

clear? Lists like this one:

● They’re simple
● You can organize your ideas clearly
● You’ll never forget to buy milk!

And the most important thing: the audience

won’t miss the point of your presentation
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Formal
Ft = 4.3137 + 0.088T Research Paper Slideshow

Tahun Kwartal Yt T Ft Yt-Ft (Yt-Ft)^2 |Yt-Ft|/Yt*100 Yt-Ft/Yt*100

2020 1 1.95 1 4.402 -2.45 6.01 125.75 -125.75
2 4.12 2 4.491 -0.37 0.14 8.99 -8.99
3 5.56 3 4.579 0.98 0.96 17.64 17.64

“This is a quote, words full of wisdom that

4 4.99 4 4.667 0.32 0.10 6.47 6.47
2021 1 4.23 5 4.756 -0.53 0.28 12.43 -12.43
2 someone
6.19 important
6 said
4.844 and 1.35can make
1.81 the 21.74 21.74
3 8.65 reader
7 get4.933
inspired.”
3.72 13.82 42.98 42.98
4 7.36 8 5.021 2.34 5.47 31.78 31.78
2022 1 1.87 9 5.109 -3.24 10.49 173.23 -173.23
2 3.55 —Someone
10 5.198Famous
-1.65 2.71 46.41 -46.41
3 5.23 11 5.286 -0.06 0.00 1.07 -1.07
4 4.96 12 5.374 -0.41 0.17 8.36 -8.36
2023 1 13 5.463 0.00 41.98 496.86 -255.63
2 14 5.551
3 15 5.640 MAD MSE MAPE MPE
4 16 Slidesgo
5.728 0.000 3.498 41.405 -21.303
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Formal Research Paper Slideshow

04
Metoda Regresi Berganda
Untuk data pribadi

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 Data Untuk Koefisien Regresi
Tahun Kwartal Yt T D1 D2 D3
2020 1 1.95 1 1 0 0
2 4.12 2 0 1 0
3 5.56 3 0 0 1
4 4.99 4 0 0 0
2021 1 4.23 5 1 0 0
2 6.19 6 0 1 0
3 8.65 7 0 0 1
4 7.36 8 0 0 0
2022 1 1.87 9 1 0 0
2 3.55 10 0 1 0
3 5.23 11 0 0 1
4 4.96 12 0 0 0
 Output of SPSS
Current situation
Mercury is the closest planet to the Sun and the smallest one in the Solar System

01 02 03 04

Venus Mars Mercury Jupiter

Venus has a Mars is actually a Mercury is the Jupiter is a gas
beautiful name cold place smallest planet giant planet

Problems
Ft = 6.023 - 0.032 T - 3.181 D1 - 1.213 D2 - 0.678 D3
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Formal Research Paper Slideshow

Tahun Kwartal t Yt Ft Yt-Ft (Yt-Ft)^2 |Yt-Ft|/Yt*100 Yt-Ft/Yt*100

2020 1 1 1.95 2.81 -0.86 0.74 37.93 -44.10
2 2 4.12 4.75 -0.63 0.39 9.51 -15.19
3 3 5.56 5.25 0.31 0.10 1.74 5.59

2021
4
1
2
Introduction
4
5
6
4.99
4.23
6.19
5.90
2.68
4.62
-0.90
1.55
1.57
0.82
2.40
2.47
16.41
56.65
39.92
-18.14
36.60
25.40
3 7 8.65 5.12 3.53 12.45 143.98 40.80
You can give a brief description of the topic you
4 8 7.36 5.77 1.59 2.54 34.48 21.64
2022 1
want to talk
9
about
1.87
here. For example,
2.55
if you want to
-0.68 0.47 25.02 -36.58
talk about Mercury, you can say that it’s the
2 10 3.55 4.49 -0.94 0.88 24.89 -26.48
smallest planet in the entire Solar System
3 11 5.23 4.99 0.24 0.06 1.07 4.53
4 12 4.96 5.64 -0.68 0.46 9.30 -13.69
2023 1 13 2.43 4.10 23.77 400.90 -19.62
2 14 4.36
3 15 4.87 MAD MSE MAPE MPE
4 16 5.51
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Data Soal

MAD MSE MAPE MPE

Berganda 0.1307 0.205 0.1832 0.0012
Linear
Sederhana 0.00 11.36 4.32 -0.25

MAD MSE MAPE MPE

Berganda 0.3413 1.9812 33.4081 -1.6351
Linear
Sederhana 0.00 3.50 41.40 -21.30

Metoda regresi Berganda peramalan lebih baik digunakan

dibanding metoda regresi sederhana

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Formal Research Paper Slideshow

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