Over the next decade, the US faces the largest sustained budget gaps in nearly a century. According to the IMF, the US federal government is now among the most indebted governments in the world.
Not long ago, the US was among the least indebted countries, but the 2008 financial crisis and 2020 pandemic changed that. The costs of high debt levels are upon us now, most visible in the form of high inflation, high interest rates, financial stress, and the risk of an economic downturn.
The problem is that the largest and fastest growing shares of the budget, mandatory spending like Social Security and Medicare, are difficult to reform. Without reforms, benefit cuts loom within a decade.
Our latest analysis finds that even large tax hikes won’t stabilize the debt. International experience with fiscal consolidations suggests that sustainable solutions require prioritizing spending reforms, paired with tax policies that minimize economic harm like well-structured consumption taxes or expansions to the tax base.
With the budget process in disarray and debt escalating, bold reforms are critical. A fiscal commission, as proposed in recent legislation, could drive meaningful change by addressing both spending and tax policies.
Given the poor state of the budget process and worsening debt trajectory, lawmakers should move boldly and quickly to address the issue, including via a fiscal commission process. Issues to consider should include reforms to both spending and taxes.
42 min read
Social Security is by far the largest federal government spending program. The latest trustees report shows the program is on a fiscally unsustainable path that will exacerbate the US debt crisis if its imbalances are not addressed in the near term.
33 min read
If tax increases are included in a package, international experience points toward raising consumption taxes, rationalizing tax expenditures, and broadening the tax base—not hiking income taxes.
6 min read
Rather than continue down the path of growing debt, lawmakers should craft a comprehensive solution. International experience cautions against tax-based fiscal consolidations, but modest tax increases may be part of a successful debt reduction package.
6 min read
While federal tax collections—especially corporate taxes—have reached historically high levels, these gains have not kept pace with escalating spending, particularly on debt interest, leading to a substantial and concerning budget deficit in FY24.
6 min read
Now is the time for lawmakers to focus on long-term fiscal sustainability, as further delay will only make an eventual fiscal reckoning that much harder and more painful. Congressional leaders should follow through on convening a fiscal commission to deal with the long-term budgetary challenges facing the country.
35 min read
The analysis provides key insights into how their models work and the sort of outputs we can expect from their models as part of next year’s tax debate.
8 min read
Taxes and their broader impact are generally overlooked in American education. Taxes influence earnings, budgets, voting, and decisions on where to live, but do American taxpayers understand the US tax system?
25 min read
What happens to your taxes when the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expires on January 1, 2026? In this episode, we explore the potential tax hikes facing millions of Americans and the debate over measuring the budgetary impacts of extending tax cuts.
Fiscal pressures are likely to weigh heavily on lawmakers as they craft a tax reform package. That increased pressure could result in well-designed tax reform that prioritizes economic growth, simplicity, and stability, or it could encourage budget gimmicks and economically harmful offsets. Lawmakers should avoid the latter.
8 min read
Join hosts Kyle Hulehan and Erica York in this episode of The Deduction as they break down the US tax policy implications of Donald Trump’s next presidential term.
On tax policy, Harris carries forward much of President Biden’s FY 2025 budget, including higher taxes aimed at businesses and high earners. She would also further expand the child tax credit (CTC) and various other tax credits and incentives while exempting tips from income tax.
17 min read
While federal tax collections—especially corporate taxes—have reached historically high levels, these gains have not kept pace with escalating spending, particularly on debt interest, leading to a substantial and concerning budget deficit in FY24.
6 min read
Social Security is by far the largest federal government spending program. The latest trustees report shows the program is on a fiscally unsustainable path that will exacerbate the US debt crisis if its imbalances are not addressed in the near term.
33 min read
While both President Biden and Vice President Harris aim their proposed tax hikes on businesses and high earners, key differences between their tax ideas in the past reveal where Harris may take her tax policy platform in the 2024 campaign.
6 min read
A 15 percent corporate rate would be pro-growth, but it would not address the structural issues with today’s corporate tax base.
4 min read
As members of Congress prepare to address the expiration of the TCJA, they should appreciate how revenues have evolved since 2017.
4 min read
While neither full expiration nor a deficit-financed full extension of the TCJA would be appropriate, lawmakers should consider the incentive effects of whichever tax reform they pursue. Because taxes affect the economy, they also affect the sustainability of debt reduction.
3 min read
President Biden is proposing extraordinarily large tax hikes on businesses and the top 1 percent of earners that would put the US in a distinctly uncompetitive international position and threaten the health of the US economy.
19 min read
For over a century, lawmakers have exempted politically favored organizations and industries from the tax code. As a result, the tax-exempt nonprofit economy now comprises 15 percent of GDP, roughly equal to the fifth-largest economy in the world.
41 min read
Lawmakers should see 2025 as an opportunity to consider more fundamental tax reforms. While the TCJA addressed some of the deficiencies of the tax code, it by no means addressed them all.
8 min read
Short FormImproving the country’s fiscal situation won’t be comfortable, but economic growth can help cushion the blow.
3 min read
Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
21 min read
Over the next 10 years, the IRA’s energy tax credits are projected to cost north of $1 trillion, adding to the federal government’s budgetary challenges and burgeoning debt.
6 min read
Given that U.S. debt is roughly the size of our annual economic output, policymakers will face many tough fiscal choices in the coming years. The good news is there are policies that both support a larger economy and avoid adding to the debt.
6 min read
The CBO projects deficits will be higher than historical levels, largely due to growth in mandatory spending programs While some recent legislation has reduced the deficit, the Inflation Reduction Act is proving to be more expensive than originally promised.
5 min read