MLB Picks

Mize is not a heavy strikeout pitcher to begin with, boasting a career K/9 just above 7.0 and a K% below 19%. He will need six innings to flirt with five punchouts, and after an 82-pitch start last week, getting that deep is unlikely. Next is the matchup. It's priced in, but the New York Yankees can hit him hard and make a quicker outing. The Detroit bullpen has every arm but one available, so a sub-15-out performance is in the cards vs. the best offense in baseball right now. Finally, it's going to be miserable in Detroit. Temperatures are in the 40s, there is a big wind blowing out, and rain is possible. There might even be snow. Cold-weather pitching is never good for the muscles, and his leash was already a little short. This potential rain/snow with heavy winds and low temperatures sounds like an unpleasant pitching experience, especially if the Bombers can keep him on the mound longer than he wants to be.

This might be the worst weather on the board today. Rain is expected all afternoon and temps will be in the 30s. The rain might stop before the first pitch, but drizzle and terrible pitching conditions will remain. That might sound like a bad idea to bet on efficiency from Richard Fitts, but he only threw 71 pitches in his first start, and the Boston Red Sox bullpen is not in terrible shape despite the doubleheader yesterday. Boston is down three arms, and their middle relievers are in good form. It's also a matchup vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, who have been anything but an intimidating offense. Toronto just got swept by the Mets and scored only three runs in the three-game set. There is a good chance this game is postponed but if they do play it, it could be an abbreviated outing from Fitts even if he's pitching well.

If there is an area where the Dodgers offense has struggled this season, it's been against left-handed pitching. While they woke up a bit against Phillies SP Cristopher Sanchez on Sunday, they had posted a .183 batting average and 76 wRC+ against southpaws prior to that, a bottom-third mark in MLB. With MacKenzie Gore toeing the rubber, the Nationals are in a better position to win than the +145 odds suggest, especially at home.

This is another game with possible snow. It also has a total of 6, which is insane. I like the Over just on merit alone, but there is a chance neither starter gets deep, especially Nathan Eovaldi, who is coming off a complete-game shutout where he threw 99 pitches and gave up four hits. Thirty-degree temperatures and double-digit winds blowing in is not exactly hitting weather, but it's also a spot where the Texas Rangers will be reluctant to push Eovaldi, who has had injuries in the past. He has also been one of the most un-hittable pitchers over the last three seasons, with 271 hits allowed over 330 innings of work. Making contact in these temperatures is not fun, giving us several paths to this Under.

I’m anticipating the Chicago Cubs lineup doing what it’s done against every pitcher its faced since returning from the Tokyo Series, and that’s working the count and finding green. The Cubs have a league-high 13.6% walk rate with a third-ranked .362 wOBA and fourth-ranked .363 on-base percentage over the 10-game stretch. While we might not see many baseballs leaving the yard tonight at Wrigley, I’m confident in both offenses picking away to enable this game to go Over the number.

Logan Gilbert’s swinging strike rate (20.6%) is up nearly six percentage points, and his 40% whiff rate ranks in the 93rd percentile. The biggest difference is the effectiveness of his four-seam fastball, which he’s throwing more frequently (up from 30.8% to 38.9%) to generate more whiffs (up from 19.3% to 30.6%). The difference in his heater is reflected in Stuff+, where it’s graded as a 116 compared to last year’s 98. His splitter, slider, and curveball have always graded out well and remain deadly, and he can combine these with his born-again four-seamer to reach even greater heights in 2025.

Hunter Greene and Logan Webb are two of the best starting pitchers in the National League and have looked fairly sharp to open the season, boasting ERAs of 2.25 and 3.00, respectively. While these teams combined for 10 runs when these two hurlers last met on Opening Day, that was at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Oracle Park is much trickier for offense, and I like Greene and Webb to be stingier by the Bay.