WTC final race - How can India, Australia, South Africa, Sri Lanka qualify?
Pakistan also have an outside chance, although it's very remote
S Rajesh
18-Dec-2024 • 7 hrs ago
With eight Tests to go in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, four teams are still in contention (and one more has a very outside chance), and no team is assured of a place in the top two. Here is how the teams in the race can make the final.
India
Percent: 55.89, matches remaining: vs Australia (two away)
The Brisbane draw means India need to win both their remaining matches in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy to be sure of qualification, regardless of other results. Two wins will take them to 60.53, while Australia will only end up on 57.02 even if they beat Sri Lanka 2-0 in their last series. On the other hand, if India win one Test and draw the other, they'll finish on 57.02, and can be overtaken by Australia (58.77) if they win 2-0 in Sri Lanka.
Here are the requirements for India to qualify in each result scenario in the current series:
- If India win the series 2-1: Australia should beat Sri Lanka by no more than 1-0 margin, or South Africa lose at least 1-0 to Pakistan
- If the series is drawn 2-2: India will finish on 55.26; Australia will need to lose to Sri Lanka by at least a 1-0 margin, or South Africa lose 2-0 to Pakistan
- If the series is drawn 1-1: India will finish on 53.51; South Africa will have to lose both Tests, or Australia lose 1-0 in Sri Lanka or draw 0-0; a 0-0 draw will leave Australia and India level on 53.51%, but India will finish ahead on the basis of more series wins in this cycle (three to two). If Sri Lanka win 2-0, they will finish ahead of India
- If India lose the series 1-2: India will finish on 51.75 and will be out of the final as Australia and South Africa will finish higher even if they lose all their remaining Tests; also, Sri Lanka will finish on 53.85 if they beat Australia 2-0
Australia
Percent: 58.89, matches remaining: vs India (two home Tests), vs Sri Lanka (two away)
Australia need two wins and a draw to be sure of qualification, but that's if they manage only a draw in their two remaining Tests against India - in that case, they'll need full points against Sri Lanka so that they finish on 58.77, ahead of India (57.02); else they will need South Africa to lose at least 1-0 to Pakistan.
With two home games to go, though, Australia will want to ensure they finish ahead of India regardless of what happens in Sri Lanka. For that, they need a win and a draw in the two remaining Tests, so that they finish on 53.51 even if they lose 2-0 in Sri Lanka, with India on 51.75. However, a 2-0 win will leave Sri Lanka marginally ahead of Australia, on 53.85, so Australia need at least a draw in one of those two Tests in Sri Lanka (assuming South Africa qualify).
If Australia win these two Tests in Melbourne and Sydney, they will qualify regardless of other results.
South Africa
Percent: 63.33, matches remaining: vs Pakistan (two home)
South Africa need to win one of their two Tests against Pakistan to be assured of qualification for the final. If they lose the series 1-0 and manage only four points to finish on 55.56, then Australia and India can both go past that mark: India need a draw and a win in Australia, while Australia need the same in Sri Lanka. If either team doesn't manage that, then even 55.56 could be enough for South Africa.
If South Africa lose both Tests to Pakistan, they'll drop to 52.78. At least one of India or Australia will surely go past that mark in their remaining matches, but if India get only four points from their last two Tests and Sri Lanka don't sweep the home series, then Australia and South Africa could still qualify. On the other hand, if India win and draw their two Tests, and Sri Lanka win 1-0, then India and South Africa will qualify.
Sri Lanka
Percent: 45.45, matches remaining: vs Australia (two home)
Sri Lanka can reach a maximum of 53.85 with a 2-0 series win against Australia. For each of Australia, India and South Africa to stay under that mark, Australia should get no more than a win and a draw in the two Tests against India, who should in turn get no more than a draw, while South Africa need to lose 2-0 to Pakistan. Sri Lanka can qualify in second place as long as only one of those three teams goes past 53.85.
Pakistan
Percent: 33.33, matches remaining: vs South Africa (two away), vs West Indies (two home)
Pakistan only have a very remote, mathematical chance, which also depends on South Africa dropping an over-rate point. Even with four wins out of four, Pakistan will finish on 52.38, marginally below South Africa's 52.78 if they lose 2-0 to Pakistan. If South Africa lose a further point, they will drop to 52.08. Then, with several results going in their favour, it's still mathematically possible for Pakistan to go second to either Australia or India. In all likelihood, though, Pakistan are out.
S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats