The Global Hunger Crisis: Tackling Food Insecurity in Developing Countries

The Global Hunger Crisis

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Contents

Illustrations

Abbreviations and Acronyms

Preface

Acknowledgements

Introduction

PART I FOOD SECURITY AND INSECURITY: CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES

1  Food Security

What is Food Security?

What is Food Insecurity?

Measuring Chronic Food Insecurity

Transitory Food Insecurity

Domestic Food Prices

Household Purchasing Power

2  Famine

Famine Mortality 1903–2011

Defining Famine

Operational Definition of Famine

Theories of Famine

Pre-modern Theories: Supply-side Factors

Modern Theories: Demand-side Factors

Postmodern Theory: The Failure of Accountability

3  The World Food System: Challenges and Options

What is the World Food System?

The Productionist Paradigm

The Life Sciences Integrated Paradigm

The Ecologically Integrated Paradigm

4  Peasant Farming: Current and Future Challenges

The Peasants’ World

Defining ‘Peasant’ and Peasant Societies

World Capitalism and Agrarian Change

Peasants and the Three Worlds of Agriculture

Agricultural Contribution to Economic Development

Investment and Economic Incentives for Agricultural Growth

Agricultural Policies in Agriculture-based Developing Countries

Peasant Farming: Constraints and Challenges

PART II CHALLENGES AND OPTIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY

5  Access to Land

Pressure for Land Reform

Instruments of State-Led Land Reform

Market-Led Agrarian Reform (MLAR)

Steps towards Successful Land Reform

Gender and Land Reform

Land Grabbing: A New Challenge

6  Rural Labour Markets

Rural Labour Markets: An Overview

The Economics of the Household Labour Allocation Model

Factors Affecting Labour Supply

Factors Affecting Demand for Labour

Employment, Unemployment and Underemployment

7  Rural Financial Services and the Issue of Sustainability

Rural Credit Markets

Credit for Agricultural Development and Poverty Reduction

The Evolution of Rural Credit Markets

Do Microfinance Institutions Help the Poor?

Second Generation MFIs

Non-Governmental Development Organisations and MFIs: The Dilemmas

The Sustainability of Microfinance Operations

Gender and Credit Policy

MFIs and the Global Financial Crisis

8  Water for Livelihoods

World Waters: An Overview

Shared Water Resources: The Political and Legal Dimensions

State Cooperation

Water for Livelihoods: Social, Economic and Environmental Constraints

The Environmental Costs of Intensive and Extensive Farming

Choices in Irrigation Technology: Shaping the Future

Governance in Irrigation Systems

Irrigation Policy and Gender

Irrigation in a Resource-poor Environment

9  Gender and Food Security: Invisibility Revisited

Invisible Rural Women

Data Deficiencies: Maintaining Rural Women Invisibility

The Feminisation of Agriculture

Rural Women’s Participation in Decision Making

Policy Approaches to Women in Development

Gender Mainstreaming

Gender and the Millennium Development Goals

Gender and Food Security: Policy Implications

Rural Women’s Voice

10 Conclusion: Food Security in Perspective

Economic and Agricultural Growth in Africa

Net Food Importing Countries and World Trade

Aid to Agriculture

Future Challenges (1): Climate Change

Future Challenges (2): Biofuels

Conclusion

Appendix: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade

Notes

Bibliography

Index

Illustrations

TABLES

1.1 Prevalence of undernourishment and daily energy supply (DES) in world regions

1.2 A classification of chronically food insecure people by geographic location

2.1 Estimated mortality figures in major twentieth- and early twenty-first-century famines

2.2 Intensity scale

2.3 Intensity and magnitude scales with examples of classifications

2.4 Evolution of famine thinking

3.1 Features of the productionist paradigm (PP)

3.2 Features of the ecologically integrated paradigm

4.1 Rural populations 1951–2030: absolute numbers and percentages of population, globally and by region

4.2 Demographic and economic characteristics of three developing country types, 2005

4.3 Public spending on agriculture in three country categories

6.1 Men’s and women’s shares in overall employment by sector, 1997 and 2007

6.2 World population and percentage of rural population 2007–2050

6.3 Numbers, percentages, growth rates and arable land per head of agricultural population in developing countries

6.4 Examples of the two-way links between agriculture and social protection

7.1 Steps to achieving sustainability of microfinance institutions and services

8.1 Impacts of secure access to irrigation water on poverty and vulnerability in rural areas

BOXES

1.1 Measuring chronic undernutrition for individuals

1.2 Measuring nutritional status at national level

3.1 Major limitations of the productionist paradigm

3.2 LSIP and genetically modified organisms: features and benefits

3.3 Key limitations of the LSIP and GMO

3.4 A new method of rice production in Madagascar

4.1 Comparison of farming conditions in industrialised and developing countries

DIAGRAMS

1.1 Conditions of food and nutrition security

1.2 Conceptual frameworks for nutritional status at household level

Abbreviations and Acronyms

Preface

Globally, we are moving into major and unprecedented food crises. The volatility of world food prices has increased dramatically over the last six years; for example, prices for maize, wheat, and rice have risen by an average of 180 per cent. Among the many reasons for this new trend are: climate change; the increased demand for food (especially milk and meat) in the emerging economies; increasing prices for oil and agricultural inputs; and support and subsidies for the alternative use of food commodities as biofuel. There are declining food stocks and export restrictions on food by traditional exporting countries, plus the impact of stock market speculation. Higher prices are likely to boost supply, but they also affect the purchasing power, and hence the nutritional intake, of the bottom billion people in poorer countries.

Analysts indicate that the number of malnourished people in South East Asia in 2011 was 600 million, and they estimate that the number in Africa could treble to 600 million as the world’s population grows by more than a third over the coming decades. A new demographic analysis indicates that there needs to be a ‘second Green Revolution’ to produce more food as the global population rises from 7 billion in 2011 to an estimated 9.2 billion by 2050.

Two-thirds of the world’s malnourished people live in only seven countries, almost all of them in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia. Some questions require serious analysis: first, how can low-income, food deficit, agriculture-based countries increase their food production while continuing to improve their production of export crops? In other words, what are the factors constraining these nations from achieving food self-sufficiency and food security. We know that overall national self-sufficiency in food is not a sufficient condition for achieving food security for every individual in the country, so there is a clear need for specific policies that target the poor and vulnerable and that aim to generate income and enhance their entitlement to food.

This book is based on courses I teach at postgraduate level on food security and famines, with special reference to the food-insecure in low-income developing countries. In this subject area, there is a marked lack of course material, at both undergraduate and postgraduate levels, for students from a multidisciplinary academic background. This book attempts to make a contribution to the academic fields of development studies, agriculture, and rural development, and to be relevant to a range of related areas such as international development, globalisation, geography, and environmental studies. It is hoped that its non-technical and practical approach will also appeal to those looking for an introduction or means of refreshing and updating their knowledge on these subjects, including policymakers and development practitioners.

Part I of the book contains four chapters, which address: the causes and consequences of food insecurity; chronic and transitory food insecurity (famine); world food systems and their limitations in relation to combating hunger; and peasants’ farming, its limitations, and future prospects. Part II contains a further six chapters on the factors constraining stable and sustainable food production in Net Food Importing Developing Countries (NFIDCs): access to land; determinants of rural labour markets in agriculture-based countries; rural financial services; water for livelihoods; and gender and food security. The final chapter of the book, ‘Food Security in Perspective’, provides the conclusion.

The content of the book reflects the experiences and research interests of its author and her continuing interest in food security and the food policies of developing countries.

Acknowledgements

Many people supported the idea of writing this book and the work that has gone into its preparation. First of all, I thank my students, who have made valuable contributions throughout the years of teaching agriculture and rural development policies, food security, and famines. With great appreciation I would like to thank John Coakley for his comments on the idea of the book and David Farrell, head of the School of Politics and International Relations in University College Dublin, for reading chapter abstracts. I am grateful to the anonymous reviewers and their valuable insights which helped to shape the book’s content and direction. I am grateful to Stephen Devereux, Institute of Development Studies, Sussex University, who read Chapter 2, and to Simon Maxwell, former director of the Overseas Development Institute London, who read Chapter 1, for being generous with their time and for providing their valuable comments and advice, as well as guiding me to the right literature. Special thanks should go to Stephen McGroarty of the World Bank for his help and generosity in providing me with much-needed information on up-to-date sources of books and reports. I extend my sincere gratitude to Wendy Cox for reading the entire manuscript and for making many valuable comments and suggestions. I would like to extend my sincere gratitude and appreciation to the Pluto team, especially Roger, David and Robert for their unfailing, efficient and friendly support throughout the preparations for this book. And for Dan Harding I say thank you for his excellent editorial work, which is greatly appreciated. Thank you to Melanie Patrick for impressive work on the cover design and my great appreciation for their work on the book goes to Dave and Sue Stanford and to Sue Carlton for compiling the book’s index. Finally, I am so grateful to all those authors who have put their research in the public realm and whose work I have drawn on extensively. Needless to say, any errors of interpretation or expression remain entirely my own responsibility.

Majda Bne Saad

University College Dublin

April 2012

Introduction

Over the last three decades, the world food situation in terms of food availability and prices has been characterised by dramatically different trends at different times. In the mid-1970s, the world was beset by acute food shortages and high food prices associated with increased oil prices. Then, during the 1980s, the prices of staple foods fell to their lowest levels in real terms since the 1920s, due to the structural overproduction of food in the industrial farming systems of the United States of America (US) and European Union (EU), and the resulting accumulation of surpluses which outstripped domestic and international growth in demand for food. At the same time, the debt crisis of the early 1980s, along with rising food self-sufficiency in key Asian markets, including India, Pakistan, and Indonesia, and falling oil prices, all constrained demand from developing countries for imported food. Then, a shift in policy in the US, designed to stabilise prices, meant that farmers there had to reduce production to consumption level. This was followed by the EU decision to reform the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and to end the ‘food mountains’ created by dumping, export-support subsidies, and food aid.

In the mid-1990s food prices again increased due to high oil prices and further problems with food supply, all of which contributed to the accelerated rate of inflation experienced by consumers in developing countries. In 1996, double-digit increases were reported for grains, vegetable oils, meats, seafood, sugar, bananas and various other commodities that represent the basic staples of human consumption (Trostle 2008: 8).

Soon after the start of the twenty-first century world food commodity prices started to increase steadily and have reached historically high levels, with nominal peaks in mid-2008 (Abbott and de Battisti 2009: 4). In particular, the price of wheat and rice more than tripled in international markets, while maize and soybean prices more than doubled. High energy prices, the declining dollar, biofuels, and patterns of demand that exceeded supply all played a role. In addition, ‘starving your neighbour’ policies, whereby many countries that were surplus producers closed off or reduced their exports in an effort to ensure food security at home, have proved disruptive (ibid).

High and volatile global food prices, along with rising energy prices, are contributing to macroeconomic instability in many countries. For net importers, the average impact on terms-of-trade can be very significant, and can exacerbate high current-account deficits. It is estimated that more than 100 million additional people are falling into poverty. Higher prices may also heighten inequality within countries – the effects of food prices on child malnutrition, and the vulnerability of many children living in conditions of conflict, instability, and drought, are already visible (Lin 2008: 3).

While most experts agree that there is no single reason for the current crisis, many explicitly blame speculation in commodity futures markets for inflating food prices. Evidence shows that there is a growing use of commodity futures as an asset class, and investors who traditionally invested in stocks and bonds have recognised that diversifying their investment portfolios by using commodities reduces the overall risk level and therefore increases returns (Abbott and de Battisti 2009: 11).

Experts in futures markets reject this argument, asserting that price changes must be accompanied by quantity adjustments, so that some end users must be paying the high prices for final uses or stock holding. They further argue that present transaction volumes are not out of line with past high-price events, and suggest that in fact there may be inadequate speculation in the markets (Sanders et al., in Abbott and de Battisti 2009: 11).

A dependence on the markets for food is dangerous if markets are unreliable, so that ‘response failure’ during a food crisis is possible. Markets can fail to function well either intertemporally or spatially. ÓGráda (2009: 144) points out: ‘most populist critiques of how markets worked during famines focused on the intertemporal aspect. They held that traders often, if not always, tended to underestimate the size of the harvest in poor years, and thus engage in excessive storage’. Moreover, ‘hoarding food, whether for precautionary or speculative reasons, can magnify food shortages and price rises, exaggerated fears of future shortages result in panic hoarding beyond what is justified in reality’ (Devereux 1993: 187).

Developing countries’ responses to the current situation vary from one country to another, but reactions include: altering trade and domestic agricultural policies in an attempt to stabilise the domestic market; reducing tariffs and taxes on imports; increasing food subsidies; imposing export taxes to protect domestic users; and in some extreme cases banning exports (Abbott and de Battisti 2009: 2).

Some countries, as a result of the collapse of confidence in the international grain market and out of fear of future trends, are opting to achieve self-sufficiency in food and to rebuild their own public reserves. Lin (2008: 6) argues that: ‘no doubt this will have its own implications for the world food trade system’.

Many writers agree that combating hunger and promoting food security in low-income food deficit countries requires long-term strategies involving promoting efficient growth in the food and agriculture sectors through:

•  Accelerated agricultural output growth via technological, institutional, and price incentive changes designed to raise the productivity of small farmers;

•  Rising domestic demand for agricultural output, derived from an employment-oriented urban development strategy; and

•  Diversified, non-agricultural, labour-intensive rural development activities that directly and indirectly support, and are supported by, the farming community (see for example, Mellor 1986; Tovar et al. 1987; Ellis 1992).

Thus, an agriculture- and employment-based strategy for economic development requires, as a minimum, three basic and complementary elements:

•  Improving income distribution, and enhancing the purchasing power of the poor by increasing productivity and employment;

•  Achieving a satisfactory nutritional status for the entire population through the provision of a minimum-subsistence ‘floor’ which meets basic needs; and

•  Establishing adequate food availability to insure against bad harvests, natural disasters, or uncertain food supplies and high prices (Tovar et al. 1987; Mellor 1990; World Bank 2007).

Henceforth, what is the best way to get agriculture moving in low-income food deficit countries? Historical evidence shows that success stories abound about agriculture as the basis for growth at the beginning of the development process. Agricultural growth was the precursor of the industrial revolutions that spread across the temperate regions of the world, from England in the mid-eighteenth century to Japan in the late nineteenth century (see Stevens and Jabara 1988; Eicher and Staatz 1990). More recently, in China, India, Vietnam and Ghana, rapid agricultural growth was the precursor of the rise of industry and of poverty alleviation (World Bank 2007: 44–7).

Estimates from many countries show that GDP growth originating from agriculture is at least twice as effective in reducing poverty as GDP growth originating from industry and services (World Bank 2007: 46). China’s institutional innovations, which included assigning user rights for individual plots of land to rural households, the use of ‘high yielding variety’ (HYV) seeds, and partial price-liberalisation, were accompanied by major declines in rural poverty: from 76 per cent in the early 1970s to 12 per cent in 2001. In India, technological innovations, including the adoption of HYV crops, the use of fertilisers, stabilisation of the water supply, and provision of credit to farmers, led to a 34 per cent reduction in both rural and urban poverty. Ghana’s agricultural growth, due to better economic policies, an improved investment climate, high commodity prices, and particularly the expansion of the area under cultivation, alongside increased use of fertilisers, led to a decrease in poverty levels from about 52 per cent in 1999 to 24 per cent in 2006 (ibid.).

Thus, Part I of this book raises the following questions: Will these new trends of high and increasing volatility in world food prices continue into the future and what kind of impact will they have on the rest of the world, and specifically on the food insecure in low-income food deficit countries? Part II discusses the agricultural development challenges and options in low-income food deficit countries, and asks why some nations have been successful in increasing farm productivity and agricultural production per capita, while other nations have achieved little growth.

There are ten chapters in this book, including the conclusion; a brief description of each is as follows:

Chapter 1 explores the concepts of food security and insecurity and the costs of food insecurity to individuals and nations. It provides discussions on how the current food-security situation is more complicated than ‘scarcity amidst plenty’, and shows that the current crisis is somewhat different from the crises of 1973–1975.

Chapter 2 examines famine as a sequence of ‘entitlement failures’ and explores how famine has been explained in the literature. Starting with the pre-modern view of famine in terms of ‘food availability decline’ (FAD), it goes on to examine the modern view of famine which emphasises failure of access to food that is ‘food entitlement decline’ (FED), and then to a postmodern explanation which focuses on failures of accountability and of national and international responses.

Chapter 3 examines the world food system and a number of key drivers for change in terms of the paradigms used in food production worldwide. It goes on to discuss these changes, elaborating on the ‘productionist’ approach (that is, Green Revolution/industrial agriculture); the life sciences and the ecologically integrated approaches highlighting both the advantages and limitations of each. Finally some suggestions are made for using affordable and environmentally sustainable approaches to improve the productivity of small farmers in low-income food deficit regions in developing countries.

Chapter 4 focuses on the question of food supply in low-income food deficit countries. It describes the main characteristics of peasants’ farming systems and identifies the constraints facing peasants’ societies within the wider changes that have taken place in national as well as world political, economic, and agrarian systems.

Chapter 5 examines the diversity and types of land tenure systems in developing countries, and analyses the wide range of land tenure options available to farmers, which could enable them to respond strategically and effectively to changing market conditions, opportunities, and external environmental constraints. It analyses the successes and failures associated with state-led land and agrarian reforms and elaborates on market-led land reform, and women’s access to land.

Chapter 6 deals with the question of the human resources that are available to the agricultural sector. It examines the structure and main characteristics of rural labour markets, elaborating on the factors affecting the supply of and demand for labour in rural areas, including the impacts of population growth and the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

Chapter 7 examines credit institutions, both formal and informal, focusing on micro-credit institutions and the conditions required for their sustainability.

Chapter 8 examines irrigation, water supply, and the existing constraints (legal, political, social, economic, technical, and environmental) hindering low- and middle-income countries in Asia and Africa from providing a stable and sustainable supply of water to their food and agricultural production.

Chapter 9 discusses gender and food security, focusing on approaches to policy analysis which can facilitate the processes of mainstreaming gender concerns in agricultural policies.

Chapter 10 provides a global perspective on food security, including aspects of agricultural trade and aid to agricultural development in low-income food deficit developing countries.

Part I

Food Security and Insecurity: Causes and Consequences

1

Food Security

Food security has been a centrepiece of food and agricultural policy discussion since the food crises of the 1970s, and it has risen to prominence since 2007 among national governments, multilateral and bilateral institutions, and non-governmental organisations following the recent food crisis.

No one really knows how many people are malnourished. The statistics most frequently cited are that of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), which measures ‘undernutrition’, with the most recent estimate, released on 14 October 2009, indicating that 1.02 billion people are hungry, 15 per cent of the estimated world population in that year of 6.8 billion. This represents a sizeable increase from its 2006 estimate of 854 million people. Almost all of the undernourished are in developing countries, in which about 11 million children under five die each year. Malnutrition and hunger-related diseases cause 60 per cent of these deaths (UNICEF 2007).

This chapter begins by defining food security and insecurity, and goes on to trace the evolution of these concepts since the 1970s. It provides some discussions on the costs of chronic food insecurity and malnutrition to individuals and nations. The chapter then examines the causes of food insecurity, both chronic and transitory, elaborating on the factors behind the repeated occurrences of transitory food insecurity. Finally, it is imperative to examine the key factors that caused the 1972–1973 food crises, and to consider whether the same factors have been operating since then, leading to the most recent crisis of 2007 and beyond.

WHAT IS FOOD SECURITY?

Concern with food insecurity can be traced back to the first-world food crisis of 1972–1974 and beyond that at least to President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s ‘State of the Union Address’ on 6 January 1941, before the US entered the Second World War, in which he spoke of ‘four essential freedoms’: freedom of speech, freedom of faith, freedom from want, and freedom from fear (Rosenman, in Shaw 2007: 3).

In 1943, the FAO’s founding conference was organised to consider the goal of freedom from want in relation to food and agriculture. Freedom from want was defined then as ‘a secure, an adequate, and a suitable supply of food for every man’ (FAO, in Shaw 2007: 3).

The overall objective of the conference was to promote the idea of ensuring ‘an abundant supply of the right kinds of food for all mankind’, with a clear emphasis on nutritional standards as a guide for governmental agricultural and economic policies for improving the nutrition and health of the world’s population. The conference declaration also recognised the causes of hunger and proposed some solutions (Shaw 2007: 3):

•  Poverty is the first cause of malnutrition and hunger;

•  Increasing food production will ensure availability but nations have to provide the markets to absorb it, thus, an expansion of the world economy should provide the purchasing power needed to maintain an adequate diet for all. Clear emphasis is put on the need for opportunities to create jobs, enlarged industrial production, and the elimination of labour exploitation;

•  With an increasing flow of trade within and between countries, better management of domestic and international investment and currencies, and sustained internal and international economic growth, the food which is produced can be made available to all people.

During 1973, the world witnessed the most publicised food crisis, triggered by rising oil prices and consequently increasing input prices for items such as fertiliser and transport costs, in addition to a bad harvest year in the former Soviet Union, China, and India (Mackie 1974). These combined with the gradually increasing demand to absorb worldwide grain reserves (Leathers and Foster 2004). In the face of this crisis, the FAO held an international conference in 1974 at which the ‘Universal Declaration on the Eradication of Hunger and Malnutrition’ ‘solemnly proclaimed’ that ‘every man, woman and child has the inalienable right to be free from hunger and malnutrition in order to develop fully and maintain their physical and mental faculties’. The Declaration recognised the role of governments, and urged the participants to work together for increased food production and a more equitable and efficient distribution of food between and within countries. It reiterated that ‘all countries, big and small, rich or poor, are equal. All countries have a full right to participate in decisions on the food problem’. It also provided a definition of a world food security system (UN 1975: 2):

The wellbeing of the peoples of the world largely depends on the adequate production and distribution of food as well as the establishment of a world food security system which would insure adequate availability of, and reasonable prices for, food at all times, irrespective of periodic fluctuations and vagaries of weather conditions, and free of political and economic pressures, and should thus facilitate, amongst other things, the development process of developing countries.

Despite this clear understanding of the complexity of the issue of food insecurity, the policy trends of the 1970s were largely concerned with ensuring national and global food supplies to satisfy the most urgent emergencies and needs in low-income food deficit countries. The annotated bibliography compiled by Maxwell and Frankenberger (1992) contains 200 items, which together trace the evolution of the concept of ‘food security’ from concern with national food stocks in the 1970s (declining food availability) to a preoccupation with individual entitlements in the 1980s, and to accountability failures, the