When Civil Resistance Succeeds: Building Democracy After Nonviolent Uprisings

ICNC MONOGRAPH SERIES

SERIES EDITOR: Maciej Bartkowski

CONTACT: [email protected]

VOLUME EDITORS: Amber French, Julia Constantine

DESIGNED BY: Hailey Grace Steele

CONTACT: [email protected]

Other volumes in this series:

Civil Resistance Against Coups: A Comparative and Historical Perspective, by Stephen Zunes (2017)

People Power Movements and International Human Rights, by Elizabeth A. Wilson (2017)

Making of Breaking Nonviolent Discipline in Civil Resistance Movements, by Jonathan Pinckney (2016)

The Tibetan Nonviolent Struggle: A Strategic and Historical Analysis, by Tenzin Dorjee (2015)

The Power of Staying Put: Nonviolent Resistance Against Armed Groups in Colombia, by Juan Masullo (2015)

Published by ICNC Press

International Center on Nonviolent Conflict

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Washington, D.C. 20006 USA

© 2018 International Center on Nonviolent Conflict,

Dr. Jonathan Pinckney

All rights reserved.

ISBN: 978-1-943271-16-0 (Print version)

ISBN: 978-1-943271-15-3 (Online version)

ISBN: 978-1-943271-56-6 (e book)

Cover Photos: (l) On Oct. 31, 1991, Zambians elected a new president and 150-member National Assembly in the nation’s first multiparty elections since 1968. Source: The Carter Center and Northwestern University Library public records. (r) Wikimedia Commons. Diretas Ja demonstration in the Chamber of Deputies, Brasilia, Brazil, April 1984.

Peer Review: This ICNC monograph underwent two blind peer reviews that recommended the study for publication with some revisions. After satisfactory updates ICNC released it for publication. Scholarly experts in the field of civil resistance and related disciplines, as well as practitioners of nonviolent action, serve as independent reviewers of ICNC monograph manuscripts.

Publication Disclaimer: The designations used and material presented in this publication do not indicate the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of ICNC. The author holds responsibility for the selection and presentation of facts contained in this work, as well as for any and all opinions expressed therein, which are not necessarily those of ICNC and do not commit the organization in any way.

Executive Summary

Why do some nonviolent revolutions lead to successful democratization while others fail to consolidate democratic change? And what can activists do to push toward a victory over dictatorship that results in long-term political freedom?

Several studies show that nonviolent revolutions are generally a more positive force for democratization than violent revolutions and top-down political transitions. However, many nonviolent revolutions, such as the Arab Spring revolution in Egypt, do not seem to fit this pattern. This study takes on this puzzle and reveals that the answer lies in large part in the actions of civil society prior to and during transition. Democracy is most likely when activists can keep their social bases mobilized for positive political change while directing that mobilization toward building new political institutions.

The study first lays out what we already know about the connections between nonviolent resistance and democratization. It then presents new statistical evidence that nonviolent resistance has a positive effect on democratization independently of other conditions. Additionally, in-depth case studies of Nepal, Zambia, and Brazil—woven throughout this monograph—demonstrate that the positive effect of civil resistance on democratic transition requires continued civic mobilization and a move away from radical, all-or-nothing struggles toward more regular, institutionalized politics. The study concludes with concrete takeaways on how to achieve these changes, designed for civil resistance thinkers, activists, and external actors interested in supporting nonviolent movements.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Introduction

Part 1: What We Know about Nonviolent Resistance and Democratization

Defining Terms

Nonviolent Resistance

Democracy and Democratization

Transitions

What We Know

Nonviolent Resistance Appears to Make Transitions to Democracy More Likely

Nonviolent Resistance has More Positive Effects than Violent Resistance

Nonviolent Resistance Leads to Stronger and Deeper Democracies

What We Still Don’t Know

How Strong Really is the Connection Between Nonviolent Resistance and Democratization?

When Does Nonviolent Resistance Lead to Democracy and When Does It Not?

Conclusion

Part 2: Nonviolent Resistance and Democratic Transitions

Theorizing the Challenges of Civil Resistance Transitions

Research Methods

Statistical Analysis

Measuring Transitions

Qualitative Analysis: Three Case Studies

Evidence from the Civil Resistance Transitions Data

Evidence from the Brazilian Democratic Transition

Conclusion

Part 3: Maintaining Civic Mobilization

Fostering Independent Civic Forces

Holding Victorious Pro-Democracy Leaders Accountable

Maintaining a Democratic Vision of the Future

Conclusion

Part 4: Avoiding Street Radicalism

Avoid Extreme Protest Tactics that May Backfire

Support Institutional Channels of Politics

Don’t Shut Everyone from the Old Regime Out

Conclusion

Part 5: Final Takeaways on Civil Resistance and Democratization

Takeaways for Scholars

Takeaways for Civil Resistance Practitioners

Takeaways for External Actors

Bibliography

Methodological Appendix

Quantitative Research

Civil Resistance Transitions

Democracy Source and Coding

Civic Mobilization and Street Radicalism

Control Variables

Detailed Statistical Results

Qualitative Research

Endnotes

Acknowledgements

List of Tables and Figures

Table 1.1

Figure 2.1

Figure 2.2

Table 2.1

Figure 2.3

Figure 2.4

Figure 2.5

Figure 2.6

Figure 2.7

Figure 3.1

Table 4.1

Figure 4.1

Table AP.1

Table AP.2

Table AP.3

Table AP.4

Table AP.5

Table AP.6

Table AP.7

Table AP.8

Introduction

The victory of nonviolent resistance movements is deeply inspiring. Thousands of people take to the streets, joining hands to reject an oppressive past and share a vision for a new and vibrant future. The slogans shouted in these moments speak to the hopefulness of these visions: Solidarity in Poland in the 1980s, a New Nepal along the Kathmandu Ring Road in 2006, or Freedom, Bread, Social Justice in the streets of Cairo in 2011, to name a few.

The faces of the people of Egypt the day that President Hosni Mubarak stepped down spoke to the power of this moment of hope. People proclaimed that the country could never be the same—that inevitably they were now on a path toward prosperity, freedom, and new democratic institutions.

The failure of this hope to become a reality has led many international observers to become skeptical, and activists to fear that nonviolently overthrowing oppressive governments may only, in the end, lead to worse outcomes. For instance, during the 2014 protests in Hong Kong known as the Umbrella Revolution, political scientist Eric Li argued that the protests should be called off because changing political systems through street protests would lead to Maidancracy, an indefinite cycle of political instability and violent repression (Li 2014).

Autocratic regimes around the world have encouraged this fear, spreading the idea that even the nonviolent overthrow of a regime leads to political instability and violence. Russian President Vladimir Putin is perhaps the most prominent of these voices, decrying the primarily nonviolent color revolutions in several post-Soviet states as tragic and irresponsible experiments (RT 2017), and taking extensive measures to prevent similar mobilizations in Russia and its allies (Finkel and Brudny 2012).

Further, many scholars argue that in the last few years the global political system has entered an age of democratic backsliding. Well-respected data sources on the quality of democracy around the world such as the Polity Index (Marshall 2015) and Freedom House (Abramowitz 2018) have reported consistent democratic declines. Scholars have wondered if new authoritarian norms have begun to replace democratic norms in the international system.

The academic literature on democratization has little to offer activists interested in democratizing their country’s political system. Some of the most highly respected scholarship focuses on factors such as a country’s level of economic development, geographic size, and religious makeup (Lipset 1959, Teorell 2010)—all factors beyond individual activists’ control. Others propose theories of democratization based on specific cases without much wider applicability (O’Donnell and Schmitter 1986).

In particular, scholars have paid little attention to the specific challenges faced during political transitions initiated by nonviolent resistance. Most theories either ignore the means by which a political transition begins, or they focus on transitions that formal powerholders initiated from the top down (O’Donnell and Schmitter 1986). This is surprising, considering that a close examination of the historical record reveals that nonviolent resistance—and, with that, the agency of ordinary people—has played a crucial role in dozens of major political transitions over the last several decades. Some examples are the anti-colonial struggles of the 1960s, the struggles against military rule in Latin America in the 1980s, the anti-Communist movements of 1989-1991, the color revolutions of the early 2000s, and the Arab Spring movements of 2010-12.

This monograph seeks to address that gap by building on existing scholarship and presenting new findings on the transition from a nonviolent revolution to a sustainable democracy. The pages that follow present several lessons learned on the need for movements to maintain popular civic mobilization—without letting counter-productive street radicalism (defined in more detail in subsequent chapters) take over. Table 1 summarizes these lessons.

Table 1.1: Lessons for Fostering Democracy in Civil Resistance Transitions

The evidence presented to support these lessons learned includes statistical patterns across dozens of nonviolent transitions from the last 70 years, supplemented by in-depth interviews with activists and political figures