The Growth Deficit
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During the 1980s and 1990s, European economies went through a period of slowing economic growth and high unemployment, what some economists described as “secular decline.” On the other side of the Atlantic, the United States enjoyed a robust recovery during those years by reducing taxes, eliminating regulations on business, and tightening monetary policy.
Now, after two decades of subpar growth, the question is whether or not the American economy has entered into its own era of secular decline.
This Broadside examines this troubling development, recognizing that there are no easy solutions to the problem. Lacking workable solutions, Americans will have to adjust to a future of slow economic growth, with all that implies for inter-generational progress, American strength abroad and political conflict at home.
James Piereson
James Piereson is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute where he writes about politics, economics, higher education, and philanthropy. He is the author, most recently, of Shattered Consensus: The Rise and Decline of America's Postwar Political Order (Encounter Books, 2015).
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The Growth Deficit - James Piereson
ENCOUNTER BROADSIDES
Inaugurated in the fall of 2009, Encounter Broadsides are a series of timely pamphlets and e-books from Encounter Books. Uniting an 18th century sense of public urgency and rhetorical wit (think The Federalist Papers, Common Sense) with 21st century technology and channels of distribution, Encounter Broadsides offer indispensable ammunition for intelligent debate on the critical issues of our time. Written with passion by some of our most authoritative authors, Encounter Broadsides make the case for ordered liberty and the institutions of democratic capitalism at a time when they are under siege from the resurgence of collectivist sentiment. Read them in a sitting and come away knowing the best we can hope for and the worst we must fear.
I. THE GROWTH DEBATE
DURING THE 1980s AND 1990s, European economies went through a period of slowing economic growth and high unemployment, a condition some economists described as secular stagnation
or secular decline.
Across the major European economies, especially in Germany and France, economic growth hovered around 2 percent per year during that period, with unemployment ranging between 7 and 11 percent between 1982 and 2005, much in contrast to the robust growth and low unemployment those countries enjoyed during the early post-war decades. Economists pointed to generous welfare policies, government spending and inflexible labor markets as causes of slowing economic growth across the region. On the other side of the Atlantic, the United States enjoyed a robust recovery during those years by reducing taxes, eliminating regulations on business, curbing welfare spending and tightening monetary policy to control inflation and strengthen the dollar. The United States seemed to have a prescription for economic growth that either did not work or could not be tried in Europe.
The question today, after two decades of subpar growth, is whether or not the American economy has entered into its own era of secular decline.
The question today, after two decades of subpar growth, is whether or not the American economy has entered into its own era of secular decline. For five decades, from 1950 to 2000,