Political Cleavages and Social Inequalities: A Study of Fifty Democracies, 1948-2020, is a massive and interesting statistical expansion of Thomas PikPolitical Cleavages and Social Inequalities: A Study of Fifty Democracies, 1948-2020, is a massive and interesting statistical expansion of Thomas Piketty's Brahmin Left vs. Merchant Right, which examines political trends in three countries - France, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America, and shows the emergence of an elite competition between the intellectual elite, who support left leaning parties and environmentalist parties of the "new left," and the wealthy elite, who continue to support right wing and conservative parties. This interesting split of the elite in democracies is examined in 50 case studies of all the tagged countries above, each section authored by one or multiple political analysts who examine polling data, voting habits and other statistical data sets, as well as historical literature. This creates a work of political economy that not only examines Piketty's wider thesis from numerous other nations, but also provides an interesting and concise history of electoral politics of each of the 50 nations examined. This book does not focus solely on the West, although this is where the thesis fits best. It does examine newer and none Western democracies in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East.
The book shows that the thesis fits well, but not in all cases has this political trend come to fruition, and where it has, there are large differences. The political systems of a nation play a big role; do they utilize a first-past-the-post, or proportional systems for how political seats are distributed? Are there active separatist movements, or ethnic/religious/social cleavages that skew the vote? Are there external threats to sovereignty? Are they backsliding into autocracy? All of the above and more play a factor. This book was a fascinating and all encompassing theoretical examination of the thesis, but additionally serves as a good resource to look at the electoral history of each nation in question, and engage with comparisons between and within democracies based on the effects of social cleavages of numerous sorts. I could write pages on the interactions and differences between and within countries as they are presented in this book, and suffice to say, this one is a keeper. Events and situations change within all countries, and across the globe, but with democracy going strong in many nations for the last 50-100 years, there is a lot of good data to analyze to determine historical trends that transcend traumatic events, like wars, coups or disasters, and show the continuities of history, and the effects of events on those histories, from the perspective of electoral politics. Fascinating and heady stuff, and worth a read for those looking to brush up on the history of democracy, something that is often focused on only a few big countries (US, UK, France etc.) and is often focused on universalist ideas as opposed to ground level events. ...more
Fifth Sun: A New History of the Aztecs, by Camilla Townsend, is a fascinating book looking at Aztec history from the lens of both Aztecs, and of womenFifth Sun: A New History of the Aztecs, by Camilla Townsend, is a fascinating book looking at Aztec history from the lens of both Aztecs, and of women. This book dismisses many of the historical claims made by Spanish conquistadors, who have largely written the history of the Aztecs as a conquered people up to this point. Instead, this book looks at the writings of later Aztec histories and Mexica peoples, who learned to write in the Roman Alphabet, and recorded their stories, as well as the verbal history of their peoples, and translations or discussions on the glyph-based writings, archeological evidence, and oral traditions of the Aztec peoples. The term Aztec is a loose term, denoting an Empire that contained numerous peoples who spoke a common Nahuatl tongue, or peoples conquered by them. This Empire spanned the central valley of the Mexican peninsula, and the earliest chapters of this book is a fascinating telling of the oral traditions of how the Mexica people came to Mexico, and began to dominate the landscape. Later in the book, we also here the of the invasion of Mexico and the crushing of the Aztec's by Spanish invaders. This book looks at the tropes that the Spanish placed on the Mexica people - cowardly, superstitious, and prone to massive human sacrifices, and puts them in their place. Far from cowardly, the Aztec Empire consisted of highly intelligent politicians, who sought out rumors, built intelligence networks, traded, conquered and reformed. The political history in this book is fascinating, recounting the power struggles the Aztec faced on succession, the social and familial structures that denoted their everyday lives, the trade goods and economies they built, and the tales and myths they told.
Townsend has done an excellent job writing an interesting short account of Aztec history that refutes many of the tropes placed upon indigenous Americans by European conquerors. This is the history of a complex and intertwined group of people that inhabited the North and South American continent thousands of years before the Europeans arrived, and subsequently built a unique set of politics, social customs, and perceptions on reality that were novel, beautiful and thrilling to read about. This was a very good read, and one to take a look at if you wish to move away from Euro-centric recordings of history, and examine the history of Mexico and the Aztecs in a far more historically grounded context. ...more
The China Triangle: Latin America's China Boom and the Fate of the Washington Consensus, by Kevin P. Gallagher, is an interesting look at growing tradThe China Triangle: Latin America's China Boom and the Fate of the Washington Consensus, by Kevin P. Gallagher, is an interesting look at growing trade and investment between China and Latin America. The book examines Chinese investments in Latin America's mineral, infrastructure and agricultural sectors (in particular, 87% of Chinese investments are within these three sectors, with minerals by far the largest chunk) as well as Chinese interests in manufacturing, banking and financial sectors. China has been booming for a decade, this we all know. The "China Boom" has also had a major impact on many regions of the world, the most publicized being in Africa and South-East Asia, as China boosts economic development for long struggling African nations, and competes with US influence in the South China Sea. Latin America is often ignored, even though this region represents a larger total investment platform for Chinese banks and companies.
China is interesting because of its experimentation with state led growth and investment. Gallagher argues that Chinese FDI is a close match to Japan's investments in infrastructure and development globally in the 1970's and 1980's. Chinese companies and state-run banks and firms offer commercially competitive loans, sometimes at a favourable interest rate, and engage in swaps of currency-commodity swaps. For example, China has signed oil agreements with Ecuador, Venezuela and Brazil that trades Chinese Yuan for guaranteed shipments of oil, paid for at market value. The cash payments are deposited in Chinese investment banks like the Chinese Development Bank (CDP), with China gaining interest off the payments (~30% of the total value) while the oil exporting nations pocket the rest. These sorts of agreements exist with many Latin American nations, with commodities like Iron (Brazil), Wool (Uruguay), Wine and Copper (Chile) and so on.
Chinese firms also heavily invest in Latin American companies and industries, boosting infrastructure capabilities. Chinese firms like Huwei and ZTC are invested in many telecommunications firms throughout Latin America, and have financed infrastructure improvements, purchased shares in Latin America companies, and entered joint ventures. Chinese car company Chery merged with SOMCA Int., an Argentinian car company, to produce cars for the Mercosur countries (Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Venezuela). Chinese state owned State Grid has also invested heavily in power infrastructure in the region. Chinese banks CDP, PBOC and so on have invested in financing and banking structures throughout the region. Chinese petroleum firms and mineral firms are extremely invested in the region. Clearly, China and Latin America have much in the way of trade and investment.
Gallagher examines some of the criticism over this as well. He calls it "not quite sweetheart, not quite neo-colonial." China is primarily concerned with resource extraction. Loans on offer are often favourable to those offered by investment and development banks like the IMF or World Bank. These latter institutions often require massive concessions to domestic policies to guarantee financing, and if these conditions stall, payments are withheld. China on the other hand, has gone out of its way to avoid this, in line with their Five General Principles relating to non-intervention in others domestic affairs. Loans are often close to unconditional (besides payment of course), and China has so far been lenient on repayment, negotiating extensions and adjustments with Venezuela, for example, during its on-going financial and political instability. Even so, China has been accused on numerous occasions of dumping, and has been taken to task at the WTO, with China retaliating by dropping or shifting investments to other countries. Chinese firms are also criticized for their environmental performance, although it is noted this is not more of an issue for Chinese firms than those from any other nation.
The claim that China is using reduced interest loans to compete with the US in the region is discounted in this book. 80% of Chinese loans on offer to Latin American governments are actually at or above market value. China just cannot compete with the risk stability offered by the IMF and the World Bank, for example, and thus needs to charge a higher interest rate. However, Chinese loans are less "humiliating" as one Ugandan official put it, and are offered to nations like Ecuador, Argentina and Venezuela, who have all recently defaulted on their debt. The remaining 20% are either credit-commodity swaps (the majority) or constitute "aid" (about 1.2% of loans).
Gallagher is quite critical of how Latin American governments have responded, however. Latin America's China boom definitely falls into the "resource curse" category. Latin America's resources are what China is after, but with China's slowly creeping manufacturing slowdown, as the nature of its economy changes, Latin America is not prepared for the subsequent easing of investments. Most Latin American governments have not invested the subsequent 25% of profits (recommended by economists to improve economic performance) from this windfall into infrastructure growth, and many have either used it for other needs or as foreign currency reserves. This lack of investments means that when the resources are no longer needed, China may pull out of the region to focus on internal consumer commodities as it phases into the next economic tier. Latin America has also seemingly gone backward in its own economic development. The usual steps are primary industries--> secondary industries (manufacturing) --> services/tertiary. Latin America has gone back to phase one, and has not invested in improvements in secondary or tertiary industries to a satisfactory degree. Gallagher argues that much of this is due to the previous Washington Consensus in Latin America, which tried to quickly move the region into a higher level of economic stability through the restructuring of economic and political policies by development banks and US policy makers. This failed (spectacularly) and Latin America's economic development reached a GINI coefficient not seen since the colonial age. China's Boom could have been just the medicine needed, but Latin American governments were not powerful enough to combat corporate interests and reinvest the money where needed. Gallagher argues that this will see a corporate debt bubble and subsequent crash in Latin America's economies as the profits dry up and corporate debt remains.
All in all, a very interesting read on a little known subject. China's investments in Africa are well documented, studied and watched, but the Latin American region carries a higher amount of investments and is much more competitive, as this is historically the US' backyard. China seems to have caught the US by surprise, as they offered competitive advantages and much needed investments to a region that has been struggling economically for decades. This investment period may be brief, but as Chinese firms and State-Owned Enterprises (SOE's) gain more and more market share in Latin American countries, a new geopolitical shift for the region may be underway. Smart governments (or ones that have the ability too do this anyway) that are able to offer China what it needs may be on the right track to play the US and China off for FDI, but those who have been too complacent may see their windfall dry up. Gallagher offers an interesting analysis on the China-Latin American trade and investment exchange currently in effect, and this timely read is definitely recommended for those interested in global economic policy and geopolitical events. Great read....more
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