Note: This article contains references to Ben Sinnott's Route Totals, YPRR, and Targets/Route Run. I am unable to embed the screenshots of the charts but you may view Ben's ranking by clicking on the column header and sorting from lowest to highest.
https://sumersports.com/players/tight-end/
Some of the older readers here on Hogs Haven may remember the classic edutainment game Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego? For those that do not, the game involved a series of missions in which the player tracked down and apprehended various criminals after they had committed a theft. Each case involved various clues to infer the suspect’s next destination and eventually catch the criminal. In this article, we are going to examine the clues and try to apprehend the culprit responsible for Ben Sinnott’s lack of receiving production this year.
We begin our case by ascertaining if a crime has even been committed. Let’s start by referencing one of BiB’s offseason articles.
Hogs Haven: The 5 O'Clock Club:Players Over/Unders TE Edition
Bill looked at 2nd round tight ends listing their overall draft seleciton along with their offensive snap counts for their rookie season. I added another third set of numbers in bold for total receptions and receiving yards for their rookie regular season.
2023
- Sam La Porta (34) – 981 (86)-889
- Michael Mayer (35) – 602 (27)-304
- Luke Musgrave (42) – 468 (34)-352
- Luke Schoonmaker (58) – 368 (8)-61
- Brenton Strange (61) – 307 (5)-35
2022
- Trey McBride (55) – 599 (29) 265
2021
- Pat Freiermuth 598 (60) 497
The over/under for the number of snaps in the article is 598. Currently, Ben (53 overall) is at 252 snaps and if he maintains his current averages will end up with 329 snaps, 6 Recs, and 31 Receiving Yds. Considering both Schoonmaker and Strange only played 12 and 14 games respectively, I would say we have a clear-cut theft of receiving statistics and possibly snaps.
So, who’s to blame? Let’s look at the suspects:
Rookie Status The developmental time for rookie tight ends has been much discussed and well documented. It is widely believed to be one of the most difficult NFL positions to learn coming out of college Bobby Gould has written about the phenomenon at length and if you need the primer article you can find it here
Hogs Haven:The truth about tight ends
Some point to Laporta and Kincaid as the expectation, but they are far from the norm and I would say Brock Bowers is the exception that proves the rule. There is little doubt that most tight ends don’t meet their full potential in year one. Still, can we really pin four receptions for 21 yards on a learning curve?
Adam Peters: Surprised? Our rookie GM is off to a great start, but we must consider at least some of the frustration around Sinnott’s lack of production revolves around his draft status. Some pundits and fans considered the Kansas State product a reach in the 2nd round with profiles questioning his ability to separate from coverage and win in contested catch situations. Maybe fans are expecting too much out of him simply because he is a 2nd round draft choice. Of note, the next tight end to come off the board was Tip Reiman. Drafted by the Cardinals in the middle of the third round his production so far has been nearly identical (3 Recs, 15 yds). A quick search of Revenge of the Birds revealed no huge outcry from the fan base regarding his performance so far as just a plus blocker and special teams player in his first year. Perhaps fans have set the bar too high for Sinnott.
Kliff Kingsbury: From some of the comments I have seen of the board, this seems to be one of the prime suspects for Ben’s low numbers. The general idea being Kliff needs to manufacture touches to get him involved more. From MBV’s excellent work in his Stats and Snaps series we know that KK is already using him in a variety of role in his 252 Snaps: 171 Inline, 36 Slot, 18 Wide, 26 Full Back, 1 HB. While utilizing his versatility, Kingsbury has still gotten Sinnott out on 63 routes this season.
Kliff seems to prefer to work Ben out of the backfield into the flat to generate looks for him. One of his particular favorites seems to be motioning Ben from H-Back to Fullback and then running a Spider 2 Y Banana type play. This was the exact route that Sinnott ran on his career long 12 yard reception. In my opinion, KK is using these types of plays to mask some of the second rounder’s deficiencies in contested catch and route separation. However, that philosophy results in a very poor Yards Per Route Run (YPPR). In fact, if you sort the table for YPRR from lowest to highest it is one of the worst in the league at 0.33.
It is hard to produce when you are barely leaving the line on scrimmage on your routes. I think a lot of people would also like to see more routes run by this point in the season. However, given how devastating and effective Sinnott has been as a move blocker recently, it is hard to fault KK if he wants to use him in that role to the benefit of the offense overall. One other thought is some of the other tight ends have played so well it is hard to take routes/snaps away from them
Zach Ertz: Our next suspect is the veteran that some feel should be moved out of the way to give Sinnott more run. While I wasn’t overly impressed with the signing at time, currently "No YAC Zac" is projected by ESPN to end the season with 68 Recs, 655 YDs, and 5 TDs. This represents the best tight end play the team has enjoyed since 2020 Logan Thomas and before that 2017 Vernon Davis. As cited by Ben Standing in his article this week, Pro Football Reference’s "success percentage "metric shows how effective a reception is based on yards gained against expectations for specific down. Ertz’ current 58.7 would be a career best. For those that point to Trey Mcbride as an example of Ertz of holding back a younger more explosive talent, during Trey’s rookie season Ertz went out on IR in Week 10. McBride didn’t top 55 yds. of receiving until Week 17 and struggled in a full time starting role. The flip side is no one knows if Ertz will be one and done in Washington, leaving a large void Sinnott would be unprepared to fill.
Jayden Daniels: That’s right; our own beloved rookie QB might be responsible for Ben’s lack of numbers. Don’t believe it? If you sort the table by Targets Per Route Run Ben is again near that bottom of the list with 0.06 targets per route run. John Bates is nearly double at 0.11 and Ertz number is four times higher. The reasons for this are clearly up for debate: lack of separation in his routes, not the primary read on the play, Daniels trusts his veteran pass catchers more, etc. but the low target rate is not. There is nothing Ben can do if he isn’t thrown the ball.
So there is your list of suspects: The Rookie, The GM, The OC, The Veteran, and The QB. Now it is up to you to identify the correct villain, issue a warrant, and make your arrest in the comment section.
Reference Information: Besides the HH mentions, Data and Tables are from Sumer Sports Tight End data last update 12/4/24. I also cited a statistics from Pro Football Reference as presented by Ben Standig in his 12/5/24 article on the overlooked Washington Tight End room. If you have not read it, I highly recommend.
Which of the following is the reason for Ben Sinnott’s perceived lack of receiving production?
A.) He’s a rookie. It takes time.
B.) He was over drafted.
C.) Kliff Kingsbury needs to get him more involved.
D.) Zach Ertz is getting too many snaps.
E.) Jayden Daniels won’t throw him the ball.
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