James Cleverly overtakes Robert Jenrick in Tory leadership race, new post-conference survey suggests

James Cleverly has overtaken Robert Jenrick in the race to become the next Tory leader, a survey of party members suggests.

The former home secretary, who was lagging behind, has stormed ahead to second place in members’ first preferences just days before the next round of voting.

In a hypothetical head-to-head simulation of the final round of voting, conducted by grassroots Tory website Conservative Home, Mr Cleverly is now forecast to defeat Mr Jenrick for the first time.

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He would beat the former immigration minister by 54 to 36 per cent, while he would beat Tom Tugendhat by 67 to 18 per cent.

Last week, the same polling showed that Mr Jenrick led Mr Cleverly by 51 per cent to 37 per cent.

The strong performance comes after the former home secretary appeared to woo party members with his speech on the final day of the conference, which received the loudest cheers in the hall.

It suggests he was not significantly damaged by a row over the Chagos Islands, which saw Mr Cleverly blamed for opening up talks to hand over the archipelago before being halted by his successor as foreign secretary, David Cameron.

In a pointed tweet, Mr Tugendhat described the fact that the talks were opened under a Conservative government as “disgraceful”, though he did not namecheck Mr Cleverly.

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In first place is Kemi Badenoch, who the survey suggested would beat all three of her rivals in a hypothetical head-to-head simulating the final round of voting.

She would beat Mr Cleverly by 48 to 42 per cent, the polling suggests. Ms Badenoch would beat Robert Jenrick by 53 to 33 per cent, while she would beat Tom Tugendhat by 62 to 28 per cent.

Recent polling from YouGov however, published last week, suggested Mr Jenrick is closing in on Ms Badenoch in the race to become the next Tory leader.

The poll put Ms Badenoch just four points ahead of the ex-immigration minister, with 52 per cent of people backing the former business secretary to Mr Jenrick’s 48 per cent if they were to end up in the final two.

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The survey, which spoke to 802 Tory members between 21 and 29 September, showed Mr Cleverly trailing behind Mr Jenrick by four points if the two of them made it to the final round.

Some 52 per cent of people backed Mr Jenrick, while 48 per cent backed Mr Cleverly if the two went head-to-head.

Ms Badenoch’s showing in the latest polling comes despite her having had a difficult week at the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham, with missteps on maternity pay and her suggestion that some civil servants “should be in prison”.

On Sunday, Ms Badenoch was endorsed by Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who described the shadow housing secretary as “strong and courageous” and commended her “commitment to conservative principles”.

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In a video released on Sunday, the one-time Republican candidate threw his weight behind Ms Badenoch, saying he is endorsing her as a result of their work together on a “great trade agreement between Florida and the United Kingdom”.

“She has a commitment to conservative principles, she’s strong, she’s courageous and she will be an inspiration for conservatives not just in the United Kingdom, but all across the world”, Mr DeSantis said.

“Our president Ronald Reagan once said that we need to stand for bold colours, not pale pastels.

“Kemi flies the flag of bold colours, just like we do in Florida, just like you will do again in the United Kingdom.”

The four candidates will be reduced to just two by 9 October after another round of voting from the parliamentary party. Party members will then vote for their favourite of the remaining two - but of course, their favourite candidate may not make the final cut.

The survey for Conservative Home spoke to 793 Tory members between October 3 and 4.