计算机科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (6A): 527-535.
周春姐,张志旺,唐文静
ZHOU Chun-jie,ZHANG Zhi-wang,TANG Wen-jing
摘要： 公共交通工具,尤其是公交车服务,可以减少私家车的使用和燃油消耗,缓解交通拥堵和环境污染状况。当乘坐公交车时,乘客不仅关心等车时间,更在乎公交车的拥挤程度,过度拥挤的公交车会导致乘客放弃乘坐。可见,准确、实时、可靠的乘客需求预测可以帮助公交公司决定合理的公交发车时间间隔,并且可以减少乘客的等车时间,这是人们急切需要的。基于实际公交系统的大量数据,提出一个面向移动用户的乘客需求预测系统。该系统包括服务器端的信息数据流处理和挖掘程序,以及客户端的移动应用程序。然而,公交网络中的乘客需求预测存在三大挑战:不均匀性、突发性和周期性。为了解决这些问题,提出了3种预测模型和1种基于滑动窗口的框架来预测乘客的数目。开发了一个原型系统,该系统可运行在多个版本的Android移动手机上,22个月的连续实验证明,该系统能够对公交网络中的864110项乘客需求进行精确预测,其准确度超过78%。
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