HEADLINES

PFR Originals News & Rumors

Poll: Which Team Will Draft Travis Hunter?

March 29th, 2025 at 10:24pm CST by Adam La Rose

Cam Ward is widely viewed as the top quarterback in the 2025 draft class, and with the Titans owning the No. 1 pick it would come as no surprise if he wound up in Tennessee. Plenty of uncertainty looms regarding the next few picks at the top of the board, though, especially as it pertains to Travis Hunter.

The Heisman winner has long been seen as one of the two ‘can’t-miss’ prospects in this year’s draft (the other being Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter). While Carter’s projection to the NFL is straightforward, though, Hunter’s depends on how he will be used as a pro. The two-way star handled a heavy workload at receiver as well as corner in college, and NFL teams are split with respect to how they would deploy him.

Many see Hunter as a corner (at least primarily) at the NFL level, and that holds true for the Titans. Tennessee hosted the Colorado product earlier this month, doing so with Ward as well Carter and quarterback Shedeur Sanders. The team will have plenty of information to work with when weighing its options as a result, but the decreased signs of a trade down being in play obviously point to Ward hearing his name called first. That would leave a small group of teams in place to consider drafting Hunter.

The Browns are positioned to select second overall, and they have already met with Hunter once during the pre-draft process. A follow-up could certainly be in store, especially if Cleveland becomes convinced Ward will come off the board to begin the draft. The Browns are in the market for a quarterback, however, considering Deshaun Watson’s Achilles tear and the fact trade acquisition Kenny Pickett is not seen as a starting-caliber option. Sanders and (potentially) other signal-callers could therefore receive consideration.

On the other hand, a report from earlier this week indicated the Browns are leaning toward drafting Carter with the No. 2 pick. Myles Garrett’s trade request was rescinded when he worked out a market-resetting extension, but Cleveland could still look to add an impact edge rusher via the draft. In contrast to the Titans, the Browns are known to view Hunter primarily as a receiver, something which will no doubt affect their stance on selecting him.

Active on the free agent quarterback market, the Giants have added Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson on short-term deals. New York could still select a passer third overall, but after pre-free agency indications pointed to a move up the board aimed at landing Ward, the position may not be addressed until later in the draft. In that event, adding Hunter would become a distinct possibility.

The Giants have a WR room led by 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist Malik Nabers and a CB group which now includes free agent addition Paulson Adebo. Hunter could help on both sides of the ball given the opportunity, although usage based primarily on defense would be expected in the event New York drafted him. The Joe Schoen-Brian Daboll regime faces pressure to find a long-term solution under center this offseason; drafting Hunter would not achieve that goal but he would add to a roster in need of improvements in many other areas.

Unlike the three teams at the top of the board, the Patriots do not enter the draft in need of acquiring a franchise passer. That could prove to be beneficial, although the team certainly has several other needs. Receiver was viewed as one entering the offseason, but the recent Stefon Diggs deal will provide the team with a productive veteran. Left tackle remains an area of interest, and LSU’s Will Campbell and Missouri’s Armand Membou have been identified as New England targets for the No. 4 pick.

Eliot Wolf has stated the Patriots will prioritize the best player available over positional need in 2025, though, and taking an offensive lineman that high (particularly one other than Campbell) would be seen by many as a reach. Hunter is held in high regard by the organization. As a result, New England could very well represent his floor with respect to draft projections as things currently stand.

Of course, a team like the Jaguars (set to select fifth) could come into play in the unlikely event Hunter were to not hear his name called during the opening minutes of the draft. Another suitor could also swing a trade into the top three or four with the intent of selecting him. In any case, a long wait during the first round would come as a surprise.

The first player to ever win both the Chuck Bednarik and Fred Biletnikoff awards as the country’s top defender and receiver, Hunter understandably aims to play both ways in the NFL. His ability to do so will be dictated in large part by where he winds up, something which represents one of the more interesting storylines as the countdown to the draft continues.

Which team do you see ultimately selecting Hunter? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and have your say in the comments section below.

Prospect Profile: Tyler Warren

March 22nd, 2025 at 11:19pm CST by Ely Allen

For much of the 2024 college football season, Michigan’s Colston Loveland was viewed as the premier tight end of the 2025 NFL Draft class. A breakout season from Nittany Lions tight end Tyler Warren gradually saw Loveland slip to TE2 as the Warren gained the top slot.

Warren had some decent offers coming out of Atlee HS in Mechanicsville, Virginia. Despite being a three-star athlete and grading as only the 21st-ranked tight end in the class, per 247Sports, Warren fielded offers from Michigan, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Syracuse. He made an early decision, though, committing to James Franklin and Penn State before his senior year and following through on that commitment.

It took a while for Warren to earn some significant snaps in Happy Valley. As a true freshman, Warren retained a redshirt status by only appearing in two games while Pat Freiermuth dominated the room. In his redshirt freshman year, Warren appeared in every contest but only caught five passes for 61 yards and a touchdown while Brenton Strange and Theo Johnson led the group, though Warren did get some gadget use with two rushing touchdowns on six attempts. This continued as the group stayed the same in 2022, though Warren did get three starts in a bit more time, catching 10 balls for 123 yards and three touchdowns.

With Strange departing for the NFL as a second-round draft pick, Warren joined Johnson as one of a two-man tight end attack in 2023. Both players caught 34 passes and seven touchdowns that year, though Warren edged Johnson on yardage 422 to 341. When Johnson was selected in the fourth round of the draft that year, it became clear that Warren would be a name to watch for this year’s class following his redshirt senior season.

Warren blew up the scene this year. With no other tight ends to vulture targets from him, Warren became the Nittany Lions’ top offensive weapon, leading the team in receptions (104), receiving yards (1,233), and receiving touchdowns (8). Though he had the added benefit of a 16-game schedule, thanks to the College Football Playoff, Warren’s 1,233 receiving yards were seventh-most in the NCAA this year. Per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Warren graded out as the second-best tight end in college football, behind only Harold Fannin Jr. of Bowling Green, who led all of college football in receiving yards and receiving yards per game regardless of position.

Measuring out at the NFL Scouting Combine at 6-foot-5.5 and 256 pounds, Warren is a little undersized for the perfect prototype, but his top-end production is enough to overlook that drawback. His size does limit him as a blocker, where he has plenty of room for improvement, and too easily can he be redirected from his route when in physical coverage, but sheer competitiveness and athleticism often helps Warren play through the contact and dominate, regardless.

Warren’s top competition in the draft is Loveland, Fannin, and Miami’s Elijah Arroyo. Loveland gained national recognition during the Wolverines’ national championship season but didn’t dominate statistically like Warren and Fannin in 2024. Arroyo’s stock continues to rise after a breakout season with the Hurricanes and a show-stealing performance at the Senior Bowl, though an injury at the event held Arroyo out from further improving his stock at the combine.

According to Tony Pauline of sportskeeda, the Jets are a team that are “infatuated with Warren” at the No. 7 overall pick. With the departure of Tyler Conklin to the Chargers, New York could certainly be on the lookout for a tight end in the draft. If they really love Warren, that pick makes too much sense. If he falls past the Jets, though, the Colts are another team that is highly covetous of Warren at No. 14 overall. Indianapolis was high on Brock Bowers last year before he got selected two slots above them. They’ll hope they don’t miss on Warren, too, since they haven’t had an impact tight end since Eric Ebron‘s big season in 2018.

2025 NFL Top 50 Free Agents

March 5th, 2025 at 11:08pm CST by Sam Robinson

After 2024 brought a record-setting salary cap spike, the 2025 league year introduced a jump that rivals it. We continue to see year-to-year leaps that dwarf what the 2011 CBA brought. Last year’s climb presented good news for many top-tier free agents; the batch that headlines this year’s market will be in line to follow suit. Now that the franchise tag deadline has passed, a clearer picture of the 2025 free agent market emerges.

The aim for PFR’s top 50 remains contract-based. Although players like Bobby Wagner and Tyron Smith are All-Decade-teamers bound for the Hall of Fame, they will not appear here. Big names are still part of this list. The wide receiver and cornerback markets are flooded with veterans seeking a second (or third) significant payday. As usual, this list centers around who will fare the best in terms of guaranteed money. Though, shorter-term contracts — in an effort to keep up with the cap surges — increasing in popularity has made gauging that component more complicated. With some help from trusted colleague Adam La Rose, here is our best effort at sorting through that.

Players who could be released at the start of the 2025 league year or soon after are not included, only those out of contract for the ’25 season appear below. Teams have until 11am CT March 10 to keep free agents-to-be off the market. In Year 33 of full-fledged NFL free agency, here are the top options for teams to target once the legal tampering period starts:

1. Sam Darnold, QB. Age in Week 1: 28

The quarterback tag has ballooned to $40.24MM, which proved to be too much for the Vikings to stomach. As Minnesota has a handful of starters nearing the market, circling back to Darnold at a (slightly) lower rate remains in play. But the Vikings will now run the risk of losing their 2024 J.J. McCarthy bridge, one that proved much sturdier than most expected.

For the second straight year, a Vikings quarterback headlines PFR’s Top 50 Free Agents list. Kirk Cousins came through with a four-year, $180MM deal in 2024, doing so despite entering an age-36 season and coming off an Achilles tear. The Falcons had a decade’s worth of starter work to evaluate with Cousins, who did not live up to the investment – which included $90MM guaranteed at signing. Darnold has only delivered one quality season. Like Cousins, Darnold excelled under Kevin O’Connell and targeting Justin Jefferson in an offense also featuring Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Teams’ hesitancy about Darnold’s chances of replicating his Pro Bowl season without similar weaponry is warranted.

This complicates Darnold’s bounce-back case — as does Darnold’s brutal January two-fer — but several teams need QBs during a year where the draft does not look like it will produce surefire answers. Although rumblings about Darnold having a modest market have circulated, he is the top option available and should have a few teams showing clear interest. The Raiders and Giants have been tied to Darnold, ditto the Browns. The Steelers should be interested, but they appear to have their sights set on re-signing Justin Fields. The 2021 draftee also has not put together the kind of season Darnold just did. If the Jets did not have the history they do with Darnold, they would make sense as a destination as well.

Drawing a $4.5MM offer in 2023 (from the 49ers) and choosing the Vikings’ $10MM proposal last March, Darnold has made a remarkable rise to this place. While his surge can be compared to Baker Mayfield’s, Darnold’s 2018 draft classmate had shown extended flashes in Cleveland. Darnold washed out of New York and was not a priority in Carolina, with the Panthers instead making a monster trade to acquire a No. 1 overall pick that went to Bryce Young. Darnold bided his time and has received extensive tutelage in the Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay (via O’Connell) offenses.

Darnold’s 35 touchdown passes last season eclipsed his career high by 16; his 66.2% completion rate was more than four points better than his previous top number. Darnold’s previous best before his 4,319-yard season: 3,024 with the 2019 Jets. It is easy to see why skepticism exists, as a multiyear guarantee at a Mayfield-level rate (at least) will be required. Overpaying free agents is a tried-and-true NFL tradition, but someone will take a chance on Darnold being the answer. Mayfield received $50MM in total guarantees – on a three-year deal. Darnold could push to top that on a four-year pact, as the salary cap has spiked by another $24MM since the Mayfield-Buccaneers agreement. A Daniel Jones-like guarantee at signing ($81MM) is probably too high, but Derek Carr‘s $60MM number (ahead of an age-32 season) may not be.

The Vikings have Jones as a backup plan, a solution that would effectively make the ex-Giant the 2025 Darnold behind McCarthy. It would not make too much sense for Darnold, with his value where it now is, to accept a multiyear Vikings pact due to McCarthy’s presence. Similarly, re-signing Darnold would cut into Minnesota’s ability to capitalize on McCarthy’s rookie contract. A tag represented the most logical option to keep Darnold in the Twin Cities; that deadline passing opens the door to one of the more interesting QB free agencies in recent history.

The seven-year veteran, who has 56 pre-Minnesota starts teams can judge, will slide in as a player whom clubs can talk themselves into as having a Mayfield- and Geno Smith-like resurgence. Both QBs have sustained their belated breakouts, and that will help Darnold. Though, Smith and Mayfield did not relocate after breaking through. Darnold would be best positioned to sustain his by remaining a Viking, but McCarthy – whom the Vikings built their 2024 offseason around – has tremendous internal support. Bigger money should await elsewhere.

2. Josh Sweat, EDGE. Age in Week 1: 28

Fairly well regarded going into 2024, Sweat still needed to accept a pay cut to stay with the Eagles. As the team rearranged its defensive line after Fletcher Cox’s retirement, it opted to retain Sweat and swap out Haason Reddick for Bryce Huff. The latter’s $17MM-AAV contract is teetering on bust status, as he was a healthy scratch for Super Bowl LIX. Fortunately for the Eagles, they could rely on Sweat, who cemented his value with a dominant performance to expose All-Pro guard Joe Thuney as miscast at left tackle and remind suitors about a promising combination of production and prime years remaining.

Sweat showed the value agreeing to a three-year second contract can bring. That midrange 2021 extension (three years, $40MM) has Sweat set to play out the 2025 season at 28. He should be well positioned to cash in, with the 2.5-sack Super Bowl reminding of Shaq Barrett’s effort against Patrick Mahomes and Co. ahead of his free agency. Barrett, who was exiting his age-28 campaign when the Buccaneers barreled over the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV, signed a four-year deal worth $72MM. The cap has climbed by $97MM since.

Unlike Barrett, Sweat has no sack title on his resume. One double-digit sack season appears there; his 11-sack 2022 helped the Eagles threaten the 1984 Bears’ single-season record. Sweat leaving Philadelphia would stand to move all four of the double-digit sack performers from that ultra-productive season off the Eagles’ roster, with Brandon Graham expected to retire.

Sweat may become too expensive for an Eagles team, as creative as they are with contract structure, to afford. They are expected to lose their top EDGE. The Eagles have Nolan Smith in place as a starter and, theoretically, Huff at the other spot. Third-rounder Jalyx Hunt, who joined the Super Bowl sack brigade, is likely to see his role expand if Sweat departs (that is, if the Eagles cannot swing a Myles Garrett blockbuster).

After back-to-back seasons of 23 QB hits, Sweat only compiled 15 during his eight-sack 2024. That sack total still led the Eagles, whose defensive blueprint smothered the Commanders and Chiefs as the team peaked at the ideal point. Sweat’s 16 pressures still ranked only 92nd this past season, after his 37 in 2023 checked in 10th. The Super Bowl, however, probably put to rest any doubts about Sweat’s difference-making abilities, as the Chiefs had kept Mahomes cleaner for much of Thuney’s tackle stretch.

Jonathan Greenard fetched a four-year, $76MM deal from the Vikings last year. Greenard was two years younger than Sweat when he signed that contract. The cap having gone up coupled with the value Sweat showed post-Reddick gives him a good chance to eclipse that deal and move into the $20MM-plus-per-year bracket. Before this offseason’s EDGE payday frenzy takes place – as the likes of T.J. Watt, Micah Parsons and Trey Hendrickson are in contract years and Garrett is set to command a monster offer from the Browns (or another team) – Sweat will benefit from the cap spike with what should be a solid second-tier pact at the position.

3. Milton Williams, DT. Age in Week 1: 26

Like Sweat and Zack Baun, Williams picked a good time to break through. The 2021 third-round pick, who famously drew an on-air disagreement between Howie Roseman and veteran exec Tom Donahoe, helped the Eagles cover for Fletcher Cox’s retirement. Williams came in with career-high numbers in sacks (five) and QB hits (10) as a part-time starter last season. The Louisiana Tech product totaled 18 pressures as well, ranking sixth in DT pass rush win rate.

This emergence will set up the interior disruptor for a big payday. Williams adding three sacks between the NFC championship game and Super Bowl LIX, complete with the sack-strip-recovery sequence as the Eagles finished off their rout of the Chiefs, will help his cause. The Eagles have the futures of Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter to address. Although Williams expressed an openness to staying in Philly, the team’s roster math points him out of town.

Interior defensive line-wise, this is not a deep group of free agents. Especially after the Cowboys took Osa Odighizuwa off the market via a four-year, $80MM deal. That will help Williams, even though he does not have a take-notice resume, stats-wise. PFF, however, rated him as the No. 1 overall pass rusher among interior D-linemen. Williams will be a player to watch for a sneaky-big contract agreement.

Ex-Williams teammate Javon Hargrave scored $21MM-per-year terms in 2023 and the market then exploded. The spring-summer wave of extensions that year (Daron Payne, Dexter Lawrence, Jeffery Simmons, Quinnen Williams) elevated the non-Aaron Donald market. Nnamdi Madubuike, Chris Jones and Christian Wilkins established a new top tier in 2024, one that starts at $48.5MM fully guaranteed. Williams now has a chance to test the new market as a free agent, doing so after the cap climbed by nearly $25MM from when the last round of deals came to pass.

4. Ronnie Stanley, LT. Age in Week 1: 31

Not ultimately rewarding the Ravens for their then-top-market extension in 2020, Stanley both hurt his third-contract value while attached to that accord and belatedly saved face with a 2024 rebound. The Ravens gave Stanley a significant pay cut, reducing his base salary by $7.5MM, last year. The former No. 6 overall pick responded by playing in a career-high 17 games and earning his second Pro Bowl nod. Last season will not be enough to completely erase the previous four – which injuries largely defined – but Stanley is a talented player at the O-line’s premier position.

Pass block win rate placed Stanley 12th among tackles last season, while PFF was a bit more skeptical, ranking the Notre Dame alum 37th at tackle for the third straight slate. Not quite delivering on the promise he showed before the career-reshaping ankle injury – one that led to three surgeries before the 2021 season began – Stanley suiting up for every game last season will prompt suitors to strongly consider a franchise LT-level deal. A market beginning at $21MM AAV has been floated. Though, his having missed 36 games from 2020-23 will probably reduce the guarantee ceiling.

Had Stanley not sustained that injury in Week 6 of the 2020 season, he almost definitely would not be hitting free agency now. As the Bills (Dion Dawkins), Broncos (Garett Bolles) and Lions (Taylor Decker) showed last year, teams have a habit of keeping quality LTs off the market on third contracts. Those deals came between $20MM and $20.5MM per year. As our Nikhil Mehta pointed out, that could establish a clear price range for Stanley.

Terron Armstead also carried a lengthy injury history into free agency in 2022; the Dolphins still rewarded him with $30.12MM guaranteed on a $15MM-per-year pact. The cap having spiked by more than $70MM since then should raise Stanley’s floor beyond this point.

The Ravens, who lost three O-line starters last year, want to keep him. Will they be able to? Compensatory picks have regularly dictated Baltimore’s free agency strategy, but letting Stanley walk would create a big need – in an offseason in which versatile blocker/former Stanley sub Patrick Mekari is also unattached.

Read more

Assessing Where QB Market Stands

February 27th, 2025 at 10:19pm CST by Sam Robinson

This year’s veteran quarterback market consists of at least one Hall of Famer, possibly two. Although Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are no longer in their primes, each is expected to play in 2025. Kirk Cousins is also lingering as a potential option.

Sam Darnold, however, headlines this free agent class — one that features four of the five QBs chosen in the 2021 first round. Only Justin Fields qualifies as a starter-level option from that quintet, as Mac Jones, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance will not garner attention on that level this year. Daniel Jones also hovers as an interesting option, despite his rough 2023 and ’24 showings.

The trade market, which technically includes Cousins, also has introduced a big name. The Rams continue to dangle Matthew Stafford. Even if this is merely to pinpoint his value as the sides haggle over a new contract, a handful of teams — chiefly the Raiders and Giants — have entered the fray for the former Super Bowl winner. Here is where these markets stand at the Combine:

Making sense of Stafford saga

It has now been five days since it became known the Rams were letting Matthew Stafford speak with other teams. Rather than seeking another reworking, Stafford is gunning for a new contract — and to become the oldest member of the $50MM-AAV club since Rodgers, who was there for a season. No one tied to a long-term deal averaging north of $50MM is older than 31; Stafford will play an age-37 season in 2025.

He is partially at fault for this value discrepancy. After all, Stafford had left money on the table during his initial Rams negotiations in an effort to help the team around him. That led to Stafford signing for four years and $160MM; that matched the Dak Prescott terms — though with less player-friendly language — at the time. It now sits 15th at the position..

The Browns and Steelers were loosely tied to Stafford, but the Giants and Raiders have stepped to the forefront. It would make more sense, were Stafford angling to jump to a roster that could form a contender, for him to consider the AFC North teams. But it is not known if they made serious pushes. As it stands, Giants and Raiders teams respectively coming off 3-14 and 4-13 seasons are in pursuit. The Giants have met with Stafford’s camp and asked about the QB before last year’s deadline, as their Jones plan was imploding. But the Silver and Black have done far more to indicate they are serious.

No matter how it happened, Stafford and new Raiders power broker Tom Brady met in Montana to discuss a potential fit. The Raiders have since come close on contract parameters, though it is not believed trade terms are worked out. Neither the Giants nor Raiders are open to meeting the Rams’ first-rounder asking price, as the teams hold Nos. 3 and 6. A high second-rounder headlining the package, or a potential future first, would make more sense.

Like the 49ers did with Brandon Aiyuk, the Rams still have the final say. They can opt to pay Stafford his modest roster bonus ($4MM) and work out a deal to ensure continuity for a team that has mounted stiff playoff challenges over the past two years. (As of now, however, L.A. is balking at a $50MM-per-year number.) Otherwise, the Rams risk falling backward without a quarterback plan.

Rodgers-Rams link emerges; who else makes sense for 20-year vet?

If the Rams truly go to the edge with Stafford, a report has emerged depicting Rodgers as an interested observer. Rodgers has been tied to wanting to join the Rams and to take Davante Adams with him once again. Adams was mentioned as a potential Rams target before Rodgers was thrown into the mix. It would be interesting to see the Rams try a formula that did not work for the Jets, but Rodgers — albeit at 41 — would be a capable option for far less than Stafford.

Our late-December poll about Rodgers fits did not place the Steelers as a realistic destination. Ditto the Browns. Both teams would benefit from a high-profile placeholder, though the four-time MVP’s current form may not be worth the baggage that also now comes with him.

While the Jets may not have issued an ultimatum regarding Rodgers’ Pat McAfee Show appearances, they are believed to have discussed the matter — as Gang Green’s new regime quickly decided to move on. A Jets team that lacks a surefire route to acquiring a more talented QB in 2025 announcing it would move on from Rodgers so soon is rather telling.

The Giants have not been tied to Rodgers, despite their Stafford pursuit and the team having no QBs contracted presently. If the Titans were to trade down from No. 1 overall, a veteran bridge would be logical as well. Thus far, however, Rodgers connections beyond the Rams have not surfaced.

Steelers to make internal call?

Thus far, the Steelers have been tied to a Wilson-or-Fields decision. The team has entered talks with both players, as the longstanding organizational policy prevents in-season negotiations. Early rumors pointed to Fields having a better chance to come back than Wilson, and the fifth-year veteran is interested in staying — should he receive a legitimate chance to start. Considering the raise the Steelers would need to authorize to either keep Fields off the open market or outbid other curious teams, it would stand to reason any arrangement in which Fields stays in Pittsburgh would come with a good chance to start.

Fields has long believed to have support in the Steelers’ building, dating back to when he closed the gap on Wilson — long positioned as the favorite for the job during the 2024 offseason — leading to a late Mike Tomlin decision. Although Fields did not show much improvement from his Bears form as a passer while filling in for Wilson, the Tomlin call to give the veteran the job back was not unanimous.

After Wilson struggled down the stretch (albeit with a limited receiving corps), suddenly he has not been as closely linked to the Steelers (though, he has repeatedly stated he wants to stay). Wilson, 36, would be competing with Rodgers (and perhaps Cousins) as a high-profile stopgap were the Steelers to work out something with Fields.

The Giants have been loosely tied to Wilson, whom they hosted on a short visit last year. That could be a team to monitor if this Steelers situation breaks Fields’ way, but a Pete Carroll reunion in Vegas — if Stafford and/or the Rams balk about a divorce — has been floated as a possibility.

Will Falcons really keep Cousins as backup?

Terry Fontenot has twice indicated the Falcons are fine keeping Cousins as a backup. He would be the most expensive backup in NFL history, being on a four-year deal worth $180MM. That contract came with $90MM at signing, covering Cousins’ 2025 salary. The Falcons would also owe him $10MM more, in the form of a 2026 roster bonus that vests a year out, if he is still on the roster on Day 5 of the 2025 league year.

The team paying Cousins that bonus would be interesting, but this situation does differ a bit from the Broncos’ decision to cut Wilson, as they the AFC West club was protecting itself against his 2025 base salary becoming guaranteed. The Falcons already have to eat a $27.5MM base, regardless of how they proceed with the 14th-year vet, but they would have a faint hope of trading the Cousins contract. That makes Atlanta’s route interesting, as Fontenot is now 0-for-4 in playoff berths or .500 seasons as a GM. Michael Penix Jr. emerging as a solid starter would minimize the damage from the Cousins miss, but time would seem to be running out on a struggling decision-maker.

The Browns have been linked to Cousins, who played under Kevin Stefanski for two seasons in Minnesota. Considering the Browns’ Deshaun Watson mess extends through 2026, Cousins on a vet-minimum deal — what he would almost certainly be tied to due were the Falcons to cut him, due to offset language in his current contract — would seem rather enticing for Cleveland. Cleveland also has a direct path to either Cameron Ward or Shedeur Sanders, however. Cousins may be leery of finding himself in the same situation as 2024, but after a down season, the soon-to-be 37-year-old’s options will be limited.

The Vikings’ decision

In a more commanding position with Darnold than they were with Cousins in 2024, the Vikings could send the best free agent option to the market or hang onto him as either high-priced J.J. McCarthy insurance (via the franchise tag) or a trade asset (in a tag-and-trade move). Either way, this is a much better spot for Minnesota compared to last year, when its starter left and stuck the team with a $28.5MM dead money bill.

Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has been cagey about his choice, but less than a week remains until the Vikings must decide on a tag. No tag by 3pm CT on March 4 would effectively send Darnold to free agency. This would be a better financial path for the rejuvenated passer, who played for $4.5MM in 2023 and $10MM in 2024. A host of QB-needy teams would pursue Darnold, ensuring plenty of guaranteed money will be available beyond Year 1. The Raiders were connected early, and other teams would be ready to enter the mix. Back in December, the Browns were mentioned as a party monitoring this situation

We have heard the Vikings being a bit leery of applying the tag, at more than $40MM, which could open the door to the team letting Darnold walk and huddling back up with Jones as a much cheaper McCarthy insurance option. Kevin O’Connell has spoken highly of Jones, who could be a Darnold-, Baker Mayfield– or Geno Smith-like rejuvenation candidate under the reigning Coach of the Year. Jones would be far less costly than Darnold. The six-year Giant would be a bridge candidate elsewhere, on a one-year deal, but he would naturally be interested in seeing how the Vikings handle the Darnold matter.

A rumor about McCarthy needing plenty of work included a GM predicting the Vikings tag Darnold to protect themselves; more Darnold tag rumors also surfaced before his struggles in Week 18 and in Round 1. Despite his late-season faceplant, the former No. 3 overall pick belatedly delivered on his USC hype under O’Connell. After Mayfield and Smith proved their resurgences were far from fluky, Darnold will be the unquestioned prize on this year’s market. The Vikings will, then, have the most important say in this year’s free agency.

Re-Examining Jets’ Aaron Rodgers Addition

February 23rd, 2025 at 9:14pm CST by Adam La Rose

When the Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers, the move was known to be a short-term acquisition. Still, the future Hall of Famer’s abbreviated tenure in New York took a form neither he nor the team anticipated and both sides are now moving on.

In the spring of 2023, the Jets faced the task of once again attempting to find a feasible solution at the quarterback spot. The Sam Darnold selection (third overall, 2018) did not work out as planned, and the decision to trade him to the Panthers after three seasons as a starter signaled another reset at the position. Zach Wilson (second overall, 2021) underwhelmed during his first two years atop the depth chart and was ultimately traded away like three of the other passers taken on Day 1 from his draft class.

After inheriting Darnold, general manager Joe Douglas was tasked with moving on and finding a suitable replacement. The Wilson selection did not meet that goal, and in 2023 adding an established signal-caller represented an obvious priority. A roster featuring former Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year (Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner) on their initial contracts offered intriguing potential with stable quarterback play. With a Rodgers-Packers separation on the table, the possibility of a trade increased.

Rodgers made public his desire to continue his decorated career with the Jets, and a swap was ultimately worked out in April. Two of his four career MVP awards came in the 2020s, so expectations were high upon arrival in New York for a stretch atop the depth chart with Wilson serving as an understudy. That plan was of course altered right away as a result of Rodgers’ Achilles tear four snaps into his Jets debut. Wilson and Co. struggled on offense en route to a 7-10 record.

By the time Rodgers was back on the field, Wilson had been dealt to the Broncos while Douglas, head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett remained in place after receiving a mulligan from ownership. Issues on offense persisted early in 2024, however, and in the midst of what became a five-game losing streak Saleh was fired. That move was accompanied by Hackett (who worked with Rodgers in Green Bay and was added to the staff not long before the trade was made) being demoted, something Saleh contemplated during the offseason.

While Rodgers managed to remain in the lineup for all 17 games, the staff changes and even the trade acquisition of longtime Packers teammate Davante Adams did not produce the desired results. After dismissing Douglas midway through the campaign, signs pointed to the Jets moving in a new direction once again this offseason. The new regime led by Darren Mougey and Aaron Glenn will now take on the renewed task of finding a short- and long-term solution under center.

As that process unfolds, a look back on the price paid to add Rodgers reveals the extent of the commitment the Jets made in acquiring him. Here is the final breakdown of the trade with Green Bay which resulted in his New York arrival:

Jets received:

Packers received:

  • No. 13 pick in 2023 draft (used on OLB Lukas Van Ness)
  • No. 42 pick in 2023 (used on TE Luke Musgrave)
  • No. 207 pick in 2023 (used on K Anders Carlson)
  • No. 41 pick in 2024 (subsequently traded for the selection used on LB Edgerrin Cooper along with a collection of other Day 3 picks)

McDonald certainly enjoyed a much more productive Year 2 than Van Ness, but Cooper’s potential shown late in his rookie campaign in particular has him on track to operate as a key Packers defender for the foreseeable future. From Green Bay’s perspective, of course, the Rodgers swap also allowed the team to move out the remainder of his contract and marked the beginning of the full-fledged commitment to Jordan Love at quarterback.

Rodgers accepted a considerable pay cut upon arrival with the Jets, agreeing to a new pact which took into account his intention of playing at least two years for his new team. Even with that move, he would up collecting $75.05MM for his pair of campaigns in New York. The Jets’ decision to move forward with a release will likely take the form of a post-June 1 cut, something which will generate a dead cap charge of $49MM spread across 2025 and ’26.

Of course, the Rodgers experiment also brought with it the acquisition cost for several of his former Packers teammates. That included the free agent signings of Allen Lazard (four years, $44MM) and Randall Cobb (one year, $3MM) in 2023. The latter retired after his one-and-done Jets campaign, while the former did not produce as expected even when Rodgers was healthy. A Lazard release is expected in the near future, and if the move does not carry a post-June 1 designation New York’s $6.63M in savings will essentially be balanced out by the dead money charge of $6.55MM.

As for Adams, the trade which brought him from the Raiders to the Jets cost a third-round pick (since the conditions required to upgrade it to a second-rounder were not met). The six-time Pro Bowler averaged over 77 receiving yards per contest and scored seven touchdowns in 11 games with New York, but with Rodgers on the way out he is likely to be cut. Moving on from Adams will create considerable savings for the Jets, but doing so before the start of the new league year will nevertheless generate $8.36MM in dead money.

While it is true the Jets would have made other additions at the receiver spot without Rodgers in place over the past two years, the team’s 2023 and ‘24 aggressiveness proved to be quite costly. Counting the Day 1 and 3 selections used in his trade as a wash while adding in the money and cap commitments also made to the Cobb-Lazard-Adams trio (plus the pick used to acquire the latter), the final tally stands at two second-rounders, one third-round selection, roughly $111MM in cash and nearly $64MM in dead money across the next two years. In all, the Jets went 12-22 in the Rodgers era.

In the wake of his split with the team’s new regime, it has been learned Rodgers still has the door open to continuing his career in 2025. Regardless of what happens on that front, it is clear Mougey and Glenn will hope to have better success at the quarterback spot than their predecessors.

2025 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates

February 20th, 2025 at 10:04pm CST by Sam Robinson

Last year’s salary cap spike created another opportunity for teams to retain talent, and once the upcoming cap surge (roughly $25MM) produces a number, the 2020 CBA will have produced four straight single-year jumps by at least $16MM. These climbs, which dwarf the per-year jumps the 2011 CBA brought, have both helped teams retain talent and pay for free agents while also ballooning the costs of franchise tags.

That said, last year featured eight players given the franchise tag and one (Kyle Dugger) receiving the transition tender. Illustrating the cap climb’s impact, eight of those nine players landed extensions. None of them occurred near the July 15 extension deadline for tagged players, leaving only the Bengals and Tee Higgins‘ non-negotiations still outstanding by the time the usually action-packed stretch arrived. Higgins is back among this year’s lot of potential tag recipients, but not as many players join him.

We are now in Year 33 of the franchise tag, a retention tool that came about during the same offseason in which full-fledged free agency spawned. With clubs having until 3pm CT on March 4 to apply tags, here is who may be cuffed:

Likely tag recipients

Tee Higgins, WR (Bengals)
Tag cost: $26.18MM

It never made too much sense for the Bengals to pass on tagging Higgins, who would at least — in the event the team would squash Joe Burrow‘s crusade to retain the veteran Ja’Marr Chase sidekick — fetch draft capital in a trade. A second Higgins tag comes in at 120% of his 2024 tag price ($21.82MM). It would be interesting if the Bengals went from not negotiating with Higgins during his four months on the tag last year — and generally being prepared to move on in 2025 — to circling back and paying him a market-value deal, but that does seem to be in play.

Burrow’s push would see the team having roughly $70MM per year allocated to the receiver position; that would squash where even the Eagles and Dolphins have gone for their high-end wideout duos. Higgins, 26, was unable to market his age-25 season thanks to the tag. If the latest rumors surrounding the former second-round pick are accurate, he would be kept off the open market once again. That is a fairly significant window to miss; then again, he would have banked $48MM during that period.

The Bengals are projected to carry more than $53MM in cap space, making this a solution they can afford. But after extensive negotiations with Chase last year and Burrow stumping for Higgins, the team has an important decision to make soon.

Cincinnati has less than two weeks to give Higgins a long-term deal. It would mark quite the about-face to do so. The organization has not seriously negotiated with the WR since the first half of 2023, and even when talks did commence, no proposal came too close to $20MM per year. Those talks predictably broke down, and Higgins’ new price is believed to be around $30MM. With plenty of suitors awaiting — the cap-rich Patriots among them — that would be doable for the 6-foot-4 target, who is coming off a better season compared to his 2023 showing.

Higgins zoomed back to his usual form by hauling in 73 passes for 911 yards and a career-high 10 touchdowns; his 75.9 yards per game trailed only his 2021 number (77.9). Higgins, however, missed five games for a second straight season. Hamstring and quad injuries kept Higgins off the field last year, but his market does not appear to have cooled as a result. At worst, the Bengals could fetch Day 2 draft capital in a trade. A first-round pick may be tougher here due to an acquiring team needing to authorize a pricey extension, but teams have been calling ahead of the past two deadlines. Cincinnati still has options, but its Higgins plans will certainly need to be run by Burrow given how much he has stumped for the team to retain the five-year vet.

On tag radar

Sam Darnold, QB (Vikings)
Projected tag cost: $42.39MM

Rumors have not pointed to a clear-cut plan here. At least, the Vikings’ vision for their would-be bridge QB has not become public. But the sides are still talking. Minnesota saw the formerly underwhelming starter break through at 27, taking advantage of the Vikings’ weaponry and Kevin O’Connell‘s ability to coach up quarterbacks. Darnold earned original-ballot Pro Bowl acclaim, throwing 35 touchdown passes (to 12 INTs) and smashing more career-high marks in yardage (4,319) and completion percentage (66.2). Previously in place to hold down the fort while J.J. McCarthy developed, Darnold saw the rookie’s meniscus tear change his Twin Cities outlook.

McCarthy has undergone two surgeries and may have a long way to go in his rehab. As McCarthy went down before playing a regular-season snap, it would make sense for the Vikings to give strong consideration to cuffing Darnold as a pricey insurance measure. On the other hand, the Vikings have a few key performers set to hit the market soon. Byron Murphy, Camryn Bynum and Aaron Jones are moving toward the market. A Darnold cap hold of more than $40MM would clog Minnesota’s payroll ahead of free agency, though the team is projected to carry $63.3MM in space.

Darnold’s late-season letdown undoubtedly factors into the Vikes’ equation, as $42.39MM can be viewed as a bit steep for a player who did not consistently impress in New York or Carolina. But Darnold has proven he can excel in O’Connell’s system. As we detailed on a recent Trade Rumors Front Office post, a multiyear deal for Darnold would not make as much sense; the team still has high hopes for McCarthy. Unless the Vikings plan to entertain the expected trade calls for last year’s No. 10 overall pick, the only way Darnold would stay would be via the tag.

A tag would not be in Darnold’s best interests, as the soon-to-be 28-year-old passer has rare momentum ahead of an offseason featuring several teams with QB needs. A much-criticized draft class at the position would also benefit Darnold, who has been linked to potentially scoring a Baker Mayfield-like deal (three years, $100MM). With the cap now climbing to around $280MM, the seven-year vet could conceivably aim higher. The Vikings hold the cards here in the meantime, as this represents one of the more interesting tag decisions in several years.

Big markets await otherwise

Jevon Holland, S (Dolphins)
Projected tag cost: $20.13MM

Already cutting Raheem Mostert, Kendall Fuller and Durham Smythe to save space, the Dolphins are not expected to roll out a tag for Holland. This would mark a second straight year the Dolphins will send one of the top free agency-eligible players to the market. Miami let Christian Wilkins and Robert Hunt walk in 2024; each lineman signed a top-market deal. Holland would be expected to follow suit, as the former second-round pick has started 57 games and is going into his age-25 season. The Dolphins are projected to hold barely $1MM in cap space, mandating more moves ahead of the 2025 league year.

The British Columbia, Canada, native has five career sacks, five picks and five forced fumbles. This comes along with 25 pass breakups. The past two free agencies have seen one safety check in much higher than his peers contractually, with Jessie Bates (four years, $64MM) and Xavier McKinney (4/67) scoring top-five contracts. The latest cap spike will help Holland, who can aim for the $16MM-AAV Bates tier as a floor.

Although PFF viewed Holland as better under Vic Fangio (third overall) than Anthony Weaver (56th), the months-long Miami extension candidate will still do very well if he hits the market. Extension talks with the Oregon alum did not pick up before last season, and the Dolphins appear close to losing another quality starter early in free agency.

Trey Smith, G (Chiefs)
Projected tag cost: $25.8MM

Over the past 15 years, only two guards have been tagged: Brandon Scherff and Joe Thuney. Washington cuffed Scherff twice, letting him walk in 2022. New England kept Thuney as a placeholder during a busy 2020 on the tag front. Both players scored then-guard-record deals on the open market. Smith is expected to follow suit, as the Chiefs are viewed as unlikely to apply this pricey placeholder on their four-year right guard starter. Despite having attempted to extend Smith for a bit last summer, the former sixth-round find remains unsigned.

Kansas City looks likely to go left tackle shopping, as Thuney proved overmatched in his final fill-in assignment there, and its four-year LG starter is under contract for one more season. The Chiefs’ four-year, $80MM Jawaan Taylor misstep carries an already-guaranteed 2025 base salary ($19.5MM), thanks to the ex-Jaguar RT being on the Chiefs’ roster last March, and the team handed All-Pro Creed Humphrey a deal that easily made him the NFL’s highest-paid center. Losing Smith may be the cost of doing business, unless the three-time defending AFC champions can craft an 11th-hour solution to keep the 25-year-old Pro Bowler via the tag.

Ronnie Stanley, T (Ravens)
Projected tag cost: $25.8MM

It is highly unlikely the Ravens use the tag here, as they already gave Stanley a pay cut in 2024. That said, Baltimore wants to work something out with its longtime left tackle. Stanley’s injury history also would make a $25.8MM guarantee lofty, but this also could be a placeholder to ensure he does not leave in free agency. The Ravens lost three O-line starters in 2024, and this is the costliest position up front.

Then again, the Ravens faced a similar situation in 2019, and they let C.J. Mosley walk rather than overpay on the tag. The Ravens have used the tag in each of the past two offseasons, but it was to retain younger players (Lamar Jackson, Nnamdi Madubuike). They currently are projected to carry barely $12MM in cap space. As PFF notes, only six players 28 and older have been tagged over the past five years. No player over 30 has been tagged since the Bengals retained A.J. Green in 2020. Green was 32 that season; Stanley will turn 31 in March.

The Garett Bolles–Dion Dawkins–Taylor Decker tier, as our Nikhil Mehta pointed out, may be the place to watch for Stanley, who reestablished momentum last season after playing 17 games for the first time in his career and making the Pro Bowl. He is in position to command a nice third contract. Will it come from the Ravens? After the tag window closes, Baltimore has until March 10 to negotiate exclusively with the nine-year blocker.

Release Candidate: Von Miller

February 17th, 2025 at 9:04pm CST by Adam La Rose

When Von Miller signed a six-year, $120MM free agent deal in 2022, questions were raised about how he would be able to remain productive over the life of that pact. Halfway through the deal, a release looms as a distinct possibility.

Miller had a strong debut campaign with Buffalo, notching eight sacks in 11 games. An ACL tear ended his season, however, and it delayed his debut the following year. The former Bronco and Ram Super Bowl winner managed to suit up for 12 contests in 2023, but he was held without a sack and handled only a rotational role. That was followed by a pay cut being worked out last March.

The 35-year-old was again a part-time contributor off the edge in 2024, logging a snap share of 33%. Miller did rebound to an extent on the statsheet with six sacks and 16 pressures in 13 games (played on either side of his four-game suspension), but reducing his impact on the team’s cap moving forward is a sensible goal. Unless Miller agrees to reduce his pay again, Joe Buscaglia writes a release can be expected (subscription required).

Miller’s scheduled compensation ranges from $17.5MM to $30MM over the next three years, but none of his base salaries over that span are guaranteed. A release before June 1 would create a larger dead money charge than cap savings for the Bills. If the team designated him a post-June 1 cut, though, $17.44MM in cap space would be created while incurring a dead money charge of only $6.37MM. Miller’s scheduled cap hit of $23.81MM certainly leaves the door open to such a move.

The Bills are led along the edge by Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa. The former is currently on track to play on his $13.39MM fifth-year option in 2025, but it would come as no surprise if the team targeted a long-term extension in his case. The latter, meanwhile, inked a two-year pact last March. Buffalo could continue to depend on those young pass rushers moving forward with 2024 fifth-rounder Javon Solomon in place as a developmental option.

Veteran Dawuane Smoot is a pending free agent, though, and losing him on the open market in addition to cutting Miller would leave the Bills in need of depth additions via free agency and/or the draft. The 2025 class contains a number of highly-regarded pass rush prospects and with 10 projected selections this April Buffalo will have plenty of opportunities to add at least one. Moving on from Miller would of course be a sign the team prefers to go in a younger direction along the edge for 2025 and beyond.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Ronnie Stanley

February 16th, 2025 at 9:52pm CST by Nikhil Mehta

After taking a $7.5MM pay cut ahead of the 2024 season, left tackle Ronnie Stanley started every game for the first time in his career and earned Pro Bowl honors as a crucial piece of the Ravens’ league-leading offense.

Now, he is set to enter free agency following his best and healthiest season since his devastating ankle injury in October 2020. Stanley tried to come back to start the 2021 season but played just one game before undergoing surgery for a second time. He took a more gradual approach to his return in 2022, waiting until Week 4 to start and even rotating snaps with Patrick Mekari. He missed a few weeks with another injury, but returned as the Ravens’ full-time left tackle for the rest of the year. The injury concerns continued when Stanley missed Weeks 2 to 4 in 2023 and ended the season once again rotating with Mekari.

Stanley bounced back in 2024, starting all 17 games with a career-high 1,089 snaps. The 2016 first-round pick is still not the dominant pass protector that earned first-team All-Pro honors in 2019, but he is clearly one of the more capable left tackles in the NFL. Given the league’s scarcity at the position, Stanley will likely draw a strong market in free agency.

The Ravens may not let him get that far. Baltimore used the sixth overall pick – the franchise’s highest selection since 2000 – on Stanley in 2016 and signed him to a five-year, $98.75MM extension just three days before his 2020 injury. He has been the team’s preferred left tackle for his entire career when healthy, including the duration of the Lamar Jackson era.

With Mekari also hitting free agency, the Ravens have an uncertain future at the position. They could flip second-year tackle Roger Rosengarten to the blindside, but they would then have to replace him on the right side and deal with the bumps of two new starters on the offensive line. Re-signing Stanley would allow them to bring some continuity into 2025 and keep Rosengarten in the spot where he showed tremendous growth as a rookie. Stanley is an also an excellent fit in Todd Monken‘s offense and a respected leader in the Ravens’ locker room.

Stanley proved his value after accepting a pay cut, so he will be looking to re-establish himself as one of the league’s highest-paid left tackles. He has expressed a desire to stay in Baltimore for the rest of his career, but that doesn’t mean he will give the Ravens a hometown discount. Stanley will likely be seeking upwards of $20MM per year after Garett Bolles signed a $20.5MM APY extension with the Broncos in December. Given his injury history and struggles against elite competition like Myles Garrett and Trey Hendrickson in 2024, Stanley will likely find it difficult to break into the top tier of left tackle contracts at $22MM APY and above.

Stanley is the most proven pending free agent as his position, though a number of potential starters will be available in March. Cam Robinson and Alaric Jackson started for most of last season, while Tyron Smith, Joseph Noteboom, and Jedrick Wills all missed significant time due to injury. None played as well as Stanley in 2024, though he did benefit from Lamar Jackson‘s elite ability to evade pressure and avoid sacks.

Unlike last year’s tackle-rich draft class, the 2025 draft has just two surefire first-round tackles: Will Campbell out of LSU and Kelvin Banks Jr. out of Texas. Neither is expected to fall to the Ravens at the 27th overall pick, and general manager Eric DeCosta is extremely unlikely to trade up. Re-signing Stanley has long seemed like Baltimore’s best and most likely option, though the team was willing to gamble with their offensive line last year.

In addition to the Ravens, Stanley could receive interest from teams like the Patriots and the Jaguars. Both teams have ample cap space this offseason and need new left tackles to protect their franchise quarterbacks. After their stunning Super Bowl defeat due to a leaky offensive line, the Chiefs could also be a dark-horse contender for Stanley’s services. However, he will be 31 by the time the 2025 regular season rolls around. The longtime Raven may very well conclude that his best fit and chance to win a championship will be in Baltimore where he has spent his entire career.

2025 NFL Cap Space, By Team

February 15th, 2025 at 9:45pm CST by Adam La Rose

Free agency is roughly one month away, and teams are preparing for the first major roster-building checkpoint on the offseason calendar. In several cases, of course, the lead-in to the start of the new league year will require cost-cutting measures.

Teams expect the 2025 cap ceiling to check in somewhere between $265MM and $275MM, providing a general target to aim for before the final figure is unveiled by the NFL. Using a projected cap of $272.5MM, here is a look at where all 32 teams currently stand (courtesy of Over the Cap):

  1. New England Patriots: $119.8MM
  2. Las Vegas Raiders: $92.53MM
  3. Washington Commanders: $75.21MM
  4. Arizona Cardinals: $71.33MM
  5. Los Angeles Chargers: $63.41MM
  6. Chicago Bears: $62.97MM
  7. Minnesota Vikings: $58.01MM
  8. Pittsburgh Steelers: $53.26MM
  9. Cincinnati Bengals: $46.26MM
  10. Detroit Lions: $45.69MM
  11. San Francisco 49ers: $44.26MM
  12. Tennessee Titans: $44.08MM
  13. New York Giants: $43.38MM
  14. Green Bay Packers: $42.14MM
  15. Los Angeles Rams: $38.33MM
  16. Denver Broncos: $34.78MM
  17. Jacksonville Jaguars: $32.27MM
  18. Indianapolis Colts: $28.25MM
  19. Carolina Panthers: $20.33MM
  20. Philadelphia Eagles: $18.08MM
  21. New York Jets: $16.86MM
  22. Baltimore Ravens: $5.96MM
  23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $2.24MM
  24. Houston Texans: $99K over the cap
  25. Kansas City Chiefs: $916K over
  26. Dallas Cowboys: $2.85MM over
  27. Miami Dolphins: $5.44MM over
  28. Atlanta Falcons: $11.15MM over
  29. Seattle Seahawks: $13.46MM over
  30. Buffalo Bills: $14.18MM over
  31. Cleveland Browns: $30.17MM over
  32. New Orleans Saints: $54.11MM over

These figures will of course change based on where the final cap ceiling winds up for the year, but they take into account each team’s carryover amount for 2025. Even with those savings in play, more than one quarter of the league finds itself in need of cost-shedding moves to simply achieve cap compliance by mid-March.

With the Patriots leading the way in terms of spending power, they will be a team to watch closely once free agency begins. The team’s willingness (or lack thereof) to make major free agent additions last year was a talking point, and it will be interesting to see if the regime featuring de facto general manager Eliot Wolf and new head coach Mike Vrabel takes a different approach in 2025. A serious push for Tee Higgins – by far the most sought-after wideout set to hit the market – can be expected.

Aside from Higgins, the Bengals have a number of financial priorities. Working out a monster extension for fellow receiver Ja’Marr Chase and a new deal (and accompanying raise) for edge rusher Trey Hendrickson are key goals for the franchise. Quarterback Joe Burrow is prepared to restructure his own pact to create cap space for this offseason, but the team will no doubt need to break with tradition in terms of contract structure and guarantees to keep its core intact.

The Colts’ offseason has been defined in large part by a focus on retaining in-house players during recent years. That approach has not paid off as hoped, and general manager Chris Ballard said last month he plans to oversee a shift in roster-building philosophy this year. With the finances to make at least a modest addition or two on the open market, Indianapolis could be a suitor for some of the middle-class free agent options.

Over the coming weeks, many teams will proceed with extensions and restructures to free up cap space; the Seahawks recently took the latter route with defensive lineman Leonard Williams. Teams like the Steelers (in the case of edge rusher Preston Smith) and Dolphins (with running back Raheem Mostert as well as corner Kendall Fuller and tight end Durham Smythe) have already begin cutting veterans to free up cap space. That will increasingly continue in the near future with respect to the teams currently slated to be over the cap in particular.

Poll: Which Team Made Best 2025 HC Hire?

February 12th, 2025 at 10:06pm CST by Sam Robinson

With the Saints making their post-Super Bowl Kellen Moore hire official, the NFL’s 2025 HC carousel has stopped. Nearly a fourth of the league has now changed coaches. Who fared the best with their hire?

Starting in Chicago makes sense, as the Bears convinced picky candidate Ben Johnson to sign on. Johnson was squarely on the Jaguars and Raiders’ radars, to the point it is safe to assume the three-year Lions OC was the favorite for both AFC teams. Johnson expressed concern about the Jaguars’ then-Trent Baalke-centered front office setup, and the Raiders could not entice the highly valued play-caller with a rumored big offer.

The Bears are believed to be giving Johnson a $13MM-per-year deal — more than twice Matt Eberflus‘ salary — to develop Caleb Williams after an uneven rookie season. After Johnson played the lead role in reviving Jared Goff‘s career and turning the Lions’ offense into a dominant attack, this is the most anticipated Bears hire in decades. Johnson will work with holdover GM Ryan Poles, who is expected to receive an extension, and team president Kevin Warren.

As this marks a third straight instance of the Bears drafting a first-round quarterback then firing their HC one season into that player’s career, the Patriots are in the same boat. They jettisoned Jerod Mayo one year into Drake Maye‘s career, capping a tough year for Robert Kraft, who passed on a head coaching search in 2024 due to having identified Mayo as Bill Belichick‘s long-term successor years ago. Kraft’s initial plan was for Belichick to coach through the 2024 season, giving Mayo more on-the-job training. But the Pats’ 4-13 2023 record scuttled that aim. After Belichick’s firing, Mayo did not prove ready — in the eyes of Kraft and most other observers.

Enter Mike Vrabel, who will make his return to Foxborough 16 years after being included in the Matt Cassel tag-and-trade transaction. The 2021 NFL Coach of the Year made sense as an option in 2024, when the Pats had a vacancy, but the team had inserted language in Mayo’s contract naming him the HC-in-waiting. New England has Vrabel set up to have the final say moving forward, though both he and de facto GM Eliot Wolf will report to Kraft. Vrabel was viewed as having overachieved in Tennessee, leading the Titans to their first AFC championship game since 2002 and following that up with two more playoff berths — including a No. 1 seed in 2021.

The Jaguars enjoyed a much more complicated route to complete its HC hire. After favorite Liam Coen initially rejected a second interview, Shad Khan fired Baalke — who was again viewed as a hindrance in a coaching search — and conducted stealth negotiations with Coen to reconsider. He ultimately did, and despite the one-and-done Buccaneers OC not having worked for the same team in back-to-back years since a three-season Rams tenure that ended in 2020, he is believed to be tied to a Johnson-level contract and will effectively pick the next Jaguars GM.

This is quite the coup for Coen, after he helped Baker Mayfield to a 41-touchdown pass season, and the exit — after Coen had agreed on a Bucs extension — certainly ruffled feathers in Tampa. But the Jags were desperate for an offense-minded coach to boost Trevor Lawrence, whom the team gave a $55MM-per-year extension ahead of a 4-13 season.

The Raiders pivoted to Pete Carroll, who is set to become the oldest HC in NFL history. Carroll, who will turn 74 in September, profiles as a short-term option. The Raiders gave the former Seahawks Super Bowl-winning leader a three-year deal, which is shorter than the typical HC contract. Carroll will work with powerful minority owner Tom Brady in aiming to turn the Raiders around. The Raiders have gone through four HCs and four GMs (John Spytek the latest) this decade, and they will hope Carroll can calm things down. Carroll was linked to conducting his interviews with a potential successor in mind. The team, however, hired 61-year-old OC Chip Kelly and kept Josh McDaniels‘ DC choice (Patrick Graham); this points to Carroll’s successor not yet being with the team.

Like Vrabel, Aaron Glenn is returning to the team with which his playing career is best identified. The former Jets first-round CB is being given more power than Robert Saleh held, being set to report to ownership. Woody Johnson went so far as to label GM Darren Mougey as Glenn’s sidekick, illustrating both a tremendous opportunity for Glenn and the state of a Jets organization that had trouble attracting candidates (Vrabel and Johnson among them) after a turbulent year.

Glenn, who comes over after elevating the Lions into a top-10 defense despite Aidan Hutchinson‘s injury, is already making his voice heard. Aaron Rodgers is not expected back, with Glenn and Mougey believed to have pressed the QB on ditching his Pat McAfee Show segments in an effort to focus on football. After two years of the Jets catering to Rodgers, they are in the hunt for a new passer — one Glenn will have a significant say in identifying.

Prior to his Cowboys meetings, Brian Schottenheimer had not conducted a head coaching interview since PFR launched in 2014. The second-generation NFL coach has made the stunning leap from off-radar candidate, who had been Mike McCarthy‘s non-play-calling OC, to Jerry Jones‘ next sideline leader. The Cowboys again conducted a strange HC change, waiting a week to ditch McCarthy — after term length proved a negotiating sticking point — before being tied to Deion Sanders, who never officially interviewed.

Schottenheimer beat out three candidates, as Dallas’ past three HC changes have now featured an interim promotion (Jason Garrett), a two-candidate pool (McCarthy) and now an off-grid option. Schottenheimer has, however, been a four-time NFL OC, dating back to 2006. He was in place for some strong Russell Wilson Seahawks showings, albeit having been fired from that post after three seasons.

The Saints saw McCarthy, Joe Brady and Kliff Kingsbury bow out, as their perennially bad cap situation — one featuring an onerous Derek Carr contract — certainly may have deterred some candidates. But Moore stuck with the team, agreeing to terms despite Super Bowl LIX having raised his stock considerably. The three-time OC will call plays in New Orleans, which will aim to find a post-Carr answer during Moore’s tenure.

Although the new Saints HC’s staff has yet to take shape, Moore will aim to elevate New Orleans after four straight non-playoff seasons. He comes to Louisiana after helming an Eagles offense that peaked at the right time, as the team overpowered the Commanders and Chiefs to claim the championship.

Which teams did the best (and worst) this year? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the 2025 HC carousel in the comments section.

Load More Posts