Tech Trends 2015: The Fusion of Business and IT
Tech Trends 2015: The Fusion of Business and IT
Contents
Introduction|2
CIO as chief integration officer|4
API economy|20
Ambient computing|34
Dimensional marketing|50
Software-defined everything|66
Core renaissance|82
Amplified intelligence|96
IT worker of the future|110
Exponentials|126
Authors, contributors & special thanks|144
Introduction
W
E have it on good authority that the only constant in life is change. Yet, given the magnitude
of the change we witness daily and the staggering pace at which it now unfolds, the term
constant seems inadequate as we attempt to define and understand the highly mutable world
around us.
For example, 10 years ago, who could have foreseen that aircraft manufacturers would be
able to print replacement parts onsite in hangars rather than manufacturing them on distant
assembly lines? Or that doctors would harness artificial intelligence to improve cancer diagnosis
and treatments? Or that preventative maintenance systems featuring sensors and robotics would
virtually eliminate unanticipated mechanical breakdowns?
In many cases, such changes are being driven by a confluence of business and technology forces
fueled by innovation. On the business front, globalization continues apace, with new markets and
new customer tiers swollen by billions of people rising out of poverty. Barriers to market entry are
collapsing as entrepreneurs with low capital investment needs challenge established market players.
Meanwhile, on the technology front, five macro forces continue to drive enormous
transformation: digital, analytics, cloud, the renaissance of core systems, and the changing role of
IT within the enterprise. These forces are not just fueling innovation and giving rise to new business
models. They are also enabling historic advances in materials, medical, and manufacturing science,
among many other areas.
To help make sense of it all, we offer Deloittes sixth Technology Trends report, our annual
in-depth examination of eight current technology trends, ranging from the way some organizations
are using application programming interfaces to extend services and create new revenue streams,
to the dramatic impact connectivity and analytics are having on digital marketing; and from the
evolving role of the CIO to changing IT skill sets and delivery models.
Over the next 1824 months, each of these trends could potentially disrupt the way businesses
engage their customers, how work gets done, and how markets and industries evolve.
The theme for this years report is the fusion of business and IT, which is broadly inspired by a
fundamental transformation in the way C-suite leaders and CIOs collaborate to leverage disruptive
change, chart business strategy, and pursue potentially transformative opportunities.
The list of trends we spotlight has been developed using an ongoing process of primary and
secondary research that involves:
Feedback from client executives on current and future priorities
Perspectives from industry and academic luminaries
Research by technology alliances, industry analysts, and competitor positioning
Crowdsourced ideas and examples from our global network of practitioners
Introduction
As in last years report, we have also included a section dedicated to six exponential technologies: innovative disciplines evolving faster than the pace of Moores Law whose eventual impact may
be profound.
Over the next 1824 months, CIOs and other executives will have opportunities to learn more
about these trends and the technologies that could potentially disrupt their IT environments and,
more broadly, their companys strategies and established business models.
In the coming fiscal year or next, how will you apply what you learn to develop a response
plan, and how will you act on your plan? More importantly, how can you leverage these trends and
disruptive technologies to help chart your companys future?
The time to act is now . . . dont be caught unaware or unprepared.
Bill Briggs
Craig Hodgetts
Chief Technology Officer
US National Managing DirectorT
echnology
Deloitte Consulting LLP
Deloitte Consulting LLP
wbriggs@deloitte.com chodgetts@deloitte.com
Twitter: @wdbthree
Twitter: @craig_hodgetts
CIO as chief
integration officer
A new charter for IT
Source: a Martin Gill, Predictions 2014: The Year Of Digital Business, Forrester Research, Inc., December 19, 2013.
10
Digital mixology
Like many food and beverage companies,
Brown-Forman organizes itself by product
lines. Business units own their respective
global brands. Historically, they worked
with separate creative agencies to drive their
individual marketing strategies. IT supported
corporate systems and sales tools but was not
typically enlisted for customer engagement or
brand positioning activities. But with digital
upending the marketing agenda, BrownFormans CIO and CMO saw an opportunity to
reimagine how their teams worked together.
Over the last decade, the company
recognized a need to transform its IT and
marketing groups to stay ahead of emerging
technologies and shifting consumer patterns.
In the early 2000s, Brown-Formans separate
IT and marketing teams built the companys
initial website but continued to conduct
customer relationship management (CRM)
through snail mail. As social media began
to explode at the turn of the decade, BrownFormans marketing team recognized that
closely collaborating with IT could be the
winning ingredient for high-impact, agile
11
12
My take
Pat Gelsinger, CEO
VMware
I meet with CIOs every week, hundreds each year. I
meet with them to learn about their journeys and to
support them as they pursue their goals. The roles
these individuals play in their companies are evolving
rapidly. Though some remain stuck in a keep the
lights on and stick to the budget mind-set, many
now embrace the role of service provider: They build
and support burgeoning portfolios of IT services.
Still others are emerging as strategists and decision
makersa logical step for individuals who, after all,
know more about technology than anyone else on the
CEOs staff. Increasingly, these forward-thinking CIOs
are applying their business and technology acumen to
monetize IT assets, drive innovation, and create value
throughout the enterprise.
CIOs are adopting a variety of tactics to expand and
redefine their roles. Were seeing some establish
distinct teams within IT dedicated solely to innovating,
while others collaborate with internal line-of-business
experts within the confines of existing IT infrastructure
to create business value. Notably, weve also seen
companies set up entirely new organizational
frameworks in which emerging technologybased
leadership roles such as the chief digital officer
report to and collaborate with the CIO, who, in turn,
assumes the role of strategist and integrator.
Whats driving this evolution? Simply put, disruptive
technologies. Mobile, cloud, analytics, and a host of
other solutions are enabling radical changes in the
way companies develop and market new products
and services. Today, the Internet and cloud can
offer start-ups the infrastructure they need to create
new applications and potentially reach billions of
customersall at a low cost.
Moreover, the ability to innovate rapidly and
affordably is not the exclusive purview of tech startups. Most companies with traditional business models
probably already have a few radical developers on
stafftheyre the ones who made the system break
down over the weekend by trying something out.
When organized into small entrepreneurial teams
and given sufficient guidance, CIO sponsorship, and
a few cloud-based development tools, these creative
individuals can focus their energies on projects that
deliver highly disruptive value.
My take
Stephen Gillett
Business and technology C-suite executive
CIOs can play a vital role in any business
transformation, but doing so typically requires that
they first build a solid foundation of IT knowledge
and establish a reputation for dependably keeping
the operation running. Over the course of my career,
Ive held a range of positions within IT, working my
way up the ranks, which helped me gain valuable
experience across many IT fundamentals. As CIO
at Starbucks, I took my first step outside of the
traditional boundaries of IT by launching a digital
ventures unit. In addition to leveraging ongoing digital
efforts, this group nurtured and executed new ideas
that historically fell outside the charters of more
traditional departments. I joined Best Buy in
2012 as the president of digital marketing
and operations, and applied some
of the lessons I had learned about
engaging digital marketing and IT
together to adjust to changing
customer needs.
My past experiences prepared
me for the responsibilities I had
in my most recent role as COO
of Symantec. When we talked
about business transformation at
Symantec, we talked about more
than just developing new product
versions with better features than
those offered by our competitors. True
transformation was about the customer:
We wanted to deliver more rewarding
experiences that reflected the informed, peerinfluenced way the customer was increasingly
making purchasing decisions. Organizational silos can
complicate customer-centric missions by giving rise
to unnecessary technical complexity and misaligned
or overlapping executive charters. Because of this, we
worked to remove existing silos and prevent new ones
from developing. Both the CIO and CMO reported to
me as COO, as did executives who own data, brand,
digital, and other critical domains. Our shared mission
was to bring together whatever strategies, assets,
insights, and technologies were necessary to surpass
our customers expectations and develop integrated
go-to-market systems and customer programs.
14
Cyber implications
N many industries, board members, C-suite executives, and line-of-business presidents did not grow
up in the world of IT. The CIO owns a crucial part of the business, albeit one in which the extended
leadership team may not be particularly well versed. But with breaches becoming increasingly frequent
across industries, senior stakeholders are asking pointed questions of their CIOsand expecting that
their organizations be kept safe and secure.
CIOs who emphasize cyber risk and privacy, and those who can explain ITs priorities in terms of
governance and risk management priorities that speak to the boards concerns, can help create strong
linkages between IT, the other functions, and the lines of business. No organization is hacker-proof, and
cyber attacks are inextricably linked to the IT footprint.8 Often, CIOs are considered at least partially to
blame for incidents. Strengthening cyber security is another step CIOs can take toward becoming chief
integration officers in a space where leadership is desperately needed.
Part of the journey is taking a proactive view of information and technology riskparticularly as
it relates to strategic business initiatives. Projects that are important from a growth and performance
perspective may also subject the organization to high levels of cyber risk. In the haste to achieve toplevel goals, timeframes for these projects are often compressed. Unfortunately, many shops treat security
and privacy as compliance tasksrequired hoops to jump through to clear project stage gates. Security
analysts are put in the difficult position of enforcing standards against hypothetical controls and policies,
forcing an antagonistic relationship with developers and business sponsors trying to drive new solutions.
As CIOs look to integrate the business and IT, as well as to integrate the development and operations
teams within IT, they should make the chief information security officer and his or her team active
participants throughout the project life cyclefrom planning and design through implementation,
testing, and deployment.
The CIO and his or her extended IT department are in a rare position to orchestrate awareness of
and appropriate responses to cyber threats. With an integrated view of project objectives and technology
implications, conversations can be rooted in risk and return. Instead of taking extreme positions to
protect against imaginable risk, organizations should aim for probable and acceptable riskwith
the CIO helping business units, legal, finance, sales, marketing, and executive sponsors understand
exposures, trade-offs, and impacts. Organizational mind-sets may need to evolve, as risk tolerance is
rooted in human judgment and perceptions about possible outcomes. Leadership should approach
risk issues as overarching business concerns, not simply as project-level timeline and cost-and-benefit
matters. CIOs can force the discussion and help champion the requisite integrated response.
In doing so, chief integration officers can combat a growing fallacy that having a mature approach
to cyber security is incompatible with rapid innovation and experimentation. That might be true
with a compliance-heavy, reactive mind-set. But by embedding cyber defense as a discipline, and by
continuously orchestrating cyber security decisions as part of a broader risk management competency,
cyber security can become a value driverdirectly linked to shareholder value.
15
16
17
Bottom line
ODAYS CIOs have an opportunity to be the beating heart of change in a world being
reconfigured by technology. Every industry in every geography across every function will likely
be affected. CIOs can drive tomorrows possibilities from todays realities, effectively linking business
strategies to IT priorities. And they can serve as the lynchpin for digital, analytics, and innovation
efforts that affect every corner of the business and are anything but independent, isolated endeavors.
Chief integration officers can look to control the collisions of these potentially competing priorities
and harness their energies for holistic, strategic, and sustainable results.
Authors
Khalid Kark, director, Deloitte LLP
18
Endnotes
1. Harvard Business Review Analytic Services,
The digital dividend: First-mover advantage,
September 2014, http://www.verizonenterprise.com/resources/insights/hbr/.
2. Claudio Da Rold and Frances Karamouzis,
Digital business acceleration elevates the
need for an adaptive, pace-layered sourcing
strategy, Gartner Inc., April 17, 2014.
3. Deloitte Consulting LLP, Tech Trends 2014:
Inspiring disruption, 2014, chapter 1.
4. Deloitte Consulting LLP, Tech Trends 2014:
Inspiring disruption, 2014, chapter 10.
5. Steve Denning, The best of Peter Drucker,
Forbes, July 29, 2014, http://www.forbes.
com/sites/stevedenning/2014/07/29/
19
API economy
API economy
From systems to business services
21
19601980
19801990
19902000
2000today
Basic interoperability
enables the first
programmatic exchanges
of information. Simple
interconnect between
network protocols.
Sessions established to
exchange information.
Creation of interfaces
with function and logic.
Information is shared in
meaningful ways. Object
brokers, procedure calls,
and program calls allow
remote interaction across
a network.
techniques
ARPANET, ATTP, and
TCP sessions.
techniques
Point-to-point interfaces,
screenscraping, RFCs,
and EDI.
techniques
Message-oriented
middleware, enterprise
service bus, and serviceoriented architecture.
22
techniques
Integration as a service,
RESTful services, API
management, and cloud
orchestration.
API economy
24
API economy
APIs on demand
In 2008, Netflix, a media streaming service
with more than 50 million subscribers,15
introduced its first public API. At the time
public, supported APIs were still relatively
raredevelopers were still repurposing RSS
feeds and using more rudimentary methods
for custom development. The Netflix release
provided the company a prime opportunity to
see what public developers would and could
do with a new development tool. Netflix
vice president of Edge Engineering, Daniel
Jacobson, has described the API launch as
a more formal way to broker data between
internal services and public developers.16 The
approach worked: External developers went
on to use the API for many different purposes,
creating applications and services that let
subscribers organize, watch, and review Netflix
offerings in new ways.
In the years since, Netflix has gone from
offering streaming services on a small number
of devices to supporting its growing subscriber
base on more than 1,000 different devices.17 As
the company evolved to meet market demands,
the API became the mechanism by which
it supported growing and varied developer
requests. Though Netflix initially used the API
exclusively for public requests, by mid-2014,
the tool was processing five billion private,
internal requests daily (via devices used to
stream content) versus two million daily public
25
Empowering the
Beltwayand beyond
On March 23, 2010, President Barack
Obama signed into law the Affordable Care
Act (ACA), which reforms both the US
health care and health insurance industries.
To facilitate ACA implementation, the
government created the Federal Data Services
Hub, a platform that provides a secure way
for IT systems from multiple federal and state
agencies and issuers to exchange verification,
reporting, and enrollment data.
26
API economy
Our take
Ross Mason, founder and vice president, product strategy
Uri Sarid, chief technology officer
MuleSoft
Over many years, companies have built up masses of
valuable data about their customers, products, supply
chains, operations, and more, but theyre not always
good at making it available in useful ways. Thats a
missed opportunity at best, and a fatal error at worst.
Within todays digital ecosystems, business is driven
by getting information to the right people at the right
time. Staying competitive is not so much about how
many applications you own or how many developers
you employ. Its about how effectively you trade on
the insights and services across your balance sheet.
Until recently, and for some CIOs still today,
integration was seen as a necessary headache. But
by using APIs to drive innovation from the inside
out, CIOs are turning integration into a competitive
advantage. It all comes down to leverage: taking the
things you already do well and bringing them to the
broadest possible audience. Think: Which of your
assets could be reused, repurposed, or revalued
inside your organization or outside? As traditional
business models decline, APIs can be a vehicle to spur
growth, and even create new paths to revenue.
Viewing APIs in this way requires a shift in thinking.
The new integration mindset focuses less on just
connecting applications than on exposing information
within and beyond your organizational boundaries. Its
concerned less with how IT runs, and more with how
the business runs.
The commercial potential of the API economy really
emerges when the CEO champions it and the board
gets involved. Customer experience, global expansion,
omnichannel engagement, and regulatory compliance
are heart-of-the-business issues, and businesses
can do all of them more effectively by exposing,
orchestrating, and monetizing services through APIs.
In the past, technical interfaces dominated discussions
about integration and service-oriented architecture
(SOA). But services, treated as products, are what
really open up a businesss cross-disciplinary, crossenterprise, cross-functional capabilities. Obviously, the
27
Cyber implications
PIs expose data, services, and transactionscreating assets to be shared and reused. The upside is
the ability to harness internal and external constituents creative energy to build new products and
offerings. The downside is the expansion of critical channels that need to be protectedchannels that
may provide direct access to sensitive IP that may not otherwise be at risk. Cyber risk considerations
should be at the heart of integration and API strategies. An API built with security in mind can be a
more solid cornerstone of every application it enables; done poorly, it can multiply application risks.
Scope of controlwho is allowed to access an API, what they are allowed to do with it, and how they
are allowed to do itis a leading concern. At the highest level, managing this concern translates into
API-level authentication and access managementcontrolling who can see, manage, and call underlying
services. More tactical concerns focus on the protocol, message structure, and underlying payload
protecting against seemingly valid requests from injected malicious code into underlying core systems.
Routing, throttling, and load balancing have cyber considerations as welldenials of service (where
a server is flooded with empty requests to cripple its capability to conduct normal operations) can be
directed at APIs as easily as they can target websites.
Just like infrastructure and network traffic can be monitored to understand normal operations, API
management tools can be used to baseline typical service calls. System event monitoring should be
extended to the API layer, allowing unexpected interface calls to be flagged for investigation. Depending
on the nature of the underlying business data and transactions, responses may need to be prepared in
case the underlying APIs are compromisedfor example, moving a retailers online order processing to
local backup systems.
Another implication of the API economy is that undiscovered vulnerabilities might be exposed
through the services layer. Some organizations have tiered security protocols that require different
levels of certification depending on the systems usage patterns. An application developed for internal,
offline, back-office operations may not have passed the same rigorous inspections that public-facing
e-commerce solutions are put through. If those back-office systems are exposed via APIs to the front
end, back doors and exploitable design patterns may be inadvertently exposed. Similarly, private
customer, product, or market data could be unintentionally shared, potentially breaching country or
industry regulations.
It raises significant questions: Can you protect what is being opened up? Can you trust whats coming
in? Can you control what is going out? Integration points can become a companys crown jewels,
especially as the API economy takes off and digital becomes central to more business models. Sharing
assets will likely strain cyber responses built around the expectation of a bounded, constrained world.
New controls and tools will likely be needed to protect unbounded potential use cases while providing
end-to-end effectivenessaccording to what may be formal commitments in contractual service-level
agreements. The technical problems are complex but solvableas long as cyber risk is a foundational
consideration when API efforts are launched.
28
API economy
29
30
API economy
Bottom line
ERE on the cusp of the API economycoming from the controlled collision of revamped IT
delivery and organizational models, renewed investment around technical debt (to not just
understand it, but actively remedy it), and disruptive technologies such as cognitive computing,24
multidimensional marketing,25 and the Internet of Things. Enterprises can make some concrete
investments to be at the ready. But as important as an API management layer may be, the bigger
opportunity is to help educate, provoke, and harvest how business services and their underlying APIs
may reshape how work gets done and how organizations compete. This opportunity represents the
micro and macro versions of the same vision: moving from systems through data to the new reality
of the API economy.
Authors
George Collins, principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP
31
Endnotes
1. Electronic data interchange (EDI);
service-oriented architecture (SOA).
2. Deloitte University Press, Tech Trends 2014:
Inspiring disruption, February 6, 2014,
http://dupress.com/periodical/trends/techtrends-2014/, accessed November 10, 2014.
3. Ibid.
4. See ProgrammableWeb, http://www.
programmableweb.com/category/
all/apis?order=field_popularity.
5. Daniel Jacobson and Sangeeta Narayanan, Netflix API: Top 10 lessons learned (so
far), July 24, 2014, Slideshare, http://
www.slideshare.net/danieljacobson/
top-10-lessons-learned-from-the-netflix-apioscon-2014?utm_content=buffer90883&utm_
medium=social&utm_source=twitter.
com&utm_campaign=buffer, accessed November 10, 2014.
6. Thomas H. Davenport and Bala Iyer, Move
beyond enterprise IT to an API strategy,
Harvard Business Review, August 6, 2013,
https://hbr.org/2013/08/move-beyond-enterprise-it-to-a/, accessed November 10, 2014.
7. See ProgrammableWeb, http://www.
programmableweb.com/category/
travel/apis?category=19965.
8. Alex Howard, Welcome to data transparency in real estate, where possibilities and
challenges await, TechRepublic, April 30,
2014, http://www.techrepublic.com/article/
welcome-to-data-transparency-in-realestate-where-possibilities-and-challengesawait/, accessed November 10, 2014.
9. Deloitte University Press, Tech Trends 2015:
The fusion of business and IT, February 3, 2015.
10. Daniel Jacobson and Sangeeta Narayanan,
Netflix API: Top 10 lessons learned (so far).
11. Kin Lane, History of APIs, June
2013, https://s3.amazonaws.com/
kinlane-productions/whitepapers/
API+Evangelist+-+History+of+APis.
pdf, accessed October 6, 2014.
32
12. Google, The world is your JavaScriptenabled oyster, June 29, 2005, http://
googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/06/
world-is-your-javascript-enabled_29.
html, accessed October 6, 2014.
13. Google, A fresh new look for the Maps
API, for all one million sites, May 15, 2013,
http://googlegeodevelopers.blogspot.
com/2013/05/a-fresh-new-look-for-mapsapi-for-all.html, accessed October 6, 2014.
14. Facebook, Facebook Platform launches,
May 27, 2007, http://web.archive.org/
web/20110522075406/http:/developers.
facebook.com/blog/post/21, October 6, 2014.
15. Netflix, Q2 14 letter to shareholders, July 21,
2014, http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/
NFLX/3530109523x0x769749/8bc987c970a3-48af-9339-bdad1393e322/
July2014EarningsLetter_7.21.14_final.
pdf, accessed October 8, 2014.
16. Daniel Jacobson, Top 10 lessons learned from
the Neflix APIOSCON 2014, July 24, 2014,
Slideshare, http://www.slideshare.net/danieljacobson/top-10-lessons-learned-from-the-netflix-api-oscon-2014, accessed October 8, 2014.
17. Ibid.
18. Ibid.
19. Netflix, Form 10-K annual report, February 3, 2014, http://ir.netflix.com/secfiling.
cfm?filingID=1065280-14-6&CIK=1065280,
accessed December 17, 2014.
20. Daniel Jacobson, The evolution of
your API and its value, October 18,
2013, YouTube, https://www.youtube.
com/watch?v=oseed51WcFE, accessed October 8, 2014.
21. Megan Garber, Even non-nerds should
care that Netflix broke up with developers, Atlantic, June 17, 2014, http://www.
theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/06/
even-non-nerds-should-care-that-netflixjust-broke-up-with-developers/372926/,
accessed December 17, 2014.
API economy
33
Ambient computing
Ambient computing
Putting the Internet of Things to work
35
36
Ambient computing
Sensors &
connectivity
Underlying components
allowing intelligence
and communication to
be embedded in objects.
Device
ecosystem
Ambient
services
Business
use casesa
Representative scenarios
by industry to harness
the power of ambient
computing.
logistics Inventory
and asset management,
fleet monitoring, route
optimization.
mechanical Worker
safety, remote troubleshooting, preventative
maintenance.
manufacturing
Connected machinery,
automation.
Source: a Deloitte Development LLC, The Internet of Things Ecosystem: Unlocking the business value of connected devices, 2014,
http://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/technology-media-and-telecommunications/articles/internet-of-things-iot-enterprise-value-report.html,
accessed January 7, 2015.
37
38
Ambient computing
39
40
Ambient computing
Products to platforms
Bosch Group knows a thing or two about
disruptive technologies and their business
potential. As the worlds third-largest private
company, it manufactures a wide range of
products, from consumer goods to industrial
equipment, including some of the building
blocks of ambient computingshipping
roughly 1 billion microelectromechnical
systems (MEMS) sensors in 2014. Recognizing
the potential of the Internet of Things (IoT),
its vision has been embedding connectivity
and intelligence in products across its 350-plus
business units.
In 2008, the company launched Bosch
Software Innovations (Bosch SI), a business
unit dedicated to pioneering IoT and
ambient computing solutions for industrial
environments. We are trying to bring
130 years of manufacturing experience to
connectivity, says Troy Foster, Bosch SI CTO
Americas. Bosch SI approaches its mission
from an enterprise software perspective
looking beyond the device to enable the
kind of business intelligence, processes, and
decision making that drive value from data.
To that end, Bosch SIs IoT platform
is composed of four primary software
components: a machine-to-machine layer,
business process management, business rules
management, and an analytics engine. The
IoT system was designed to accommodate
growing data volumes as sensors get smaller
and cheaper, spurring wider deployment.
Configurable rules allow evolving, actionable
insights to be deployed.
For example, Bosch SI is currently
developing preventative maintenance
41
42
Ambient computing
My take
Richard Soley, PhD
Chairman and CEO, Object Management Group
Executive director, Industrial Internet Consortium
As head of the Object Management Group, one of the
worlds largest technology standards bodies, Im often
asked when standards will be established around
the Internet of Things (IoT).11 This common question
is shorthand for: When will there be a language to
ease interoperability between the different sensors,
actuators, and connected devices proliferating across
homes, business, and society?
In developing IoT standards, the easy part is getting
bits and bytes from object to object, something weve
largely solved with existing protocols and technologies.
The tricky part relates more to semanticsgetting
everyone to agree on the meaning and context of
the information being shared and the requests being
made. On that front, we are making progress industry
by industry, process area by process area. Were seeing
successes in use cases with bounded scopereal
problems, with a finite number of actors, generating
measurable results.
This same basic approachhelping to coordinate
industrial players, system integrators, start-ups,
academia, and vendors to build prototype test beds to
figure out what works and what doesntis central
to the charter of the Industrial Internet Consortium
(IIC).12 The IIC has found that the more interesting
scenarios often involve an ecosystem of players acting
together to disrupt business models.
Take, for example, todays self-driving cars, which
are not, in and of themselves, IoT solutions. Rather,
they are self-contained, autonomous replacements
for drivers. However, when these cars talk to each
other and to roadway sensors and when they
can use ambient computing services like analytics,
orchestration, and event processing to dynamically
optimize routes and driving behaviors, then they
become headliners in the IoT story.
The implications of self-driving cars talking to each
other are profoundnot only for taxicab drivers and
commuters, but also for logistics and freight transport.
Consider this: Roughly one-third of all food items
produced today are lost or wasted in transit from
farm to table.13 We could potentially make leaps in
sustainability by integrating existing data on crop
harvest schedules, grocery store inventory levels,
43
Cyber implications
Enabling the Internet of Things requires a number of logical and physical layers, working seamlessly
together. Device sensors, communication chips, and networks are only the beginning. The additional
services in ambient computing add even more layers: integration, orchestration, analytics, event
processing, and rules engines. Finally, there is the business layerthe people and processes bringing
business scenarios to life. Between each layer is a seam, and there are cyber security risks within each
layer and in each seam.
One of the more obvious cyber security implications is an explosion of potential vulnerabilities,
often in objects that historically lacked connectivity and embedded intelligence. For example,
machinery, facilities, fleets, and employees may now include multiple sensors and signals, all of which
can potentially be compromised. CIOs can take steps to keep assets safe by considering cyber logistics
before placing them in the IT environment. Ideally, manufacturing and distribution processes have
the appropriate controls. Where they dont, securing devices can require risky, potentially disruptive
retrofitting. Such precautionary steps may be complicated by the fact that physical access to connected
devices may be difficult to secure, which leaves the door open to new threat vectors. Whats more,
in order to protect against machines being maliciously prompted to act against the interests of the
organization or its constituencies, IT leaders should be extra cautious when ambient computing
scenarios move from signal detection to actuationa state in which devices automatically make
decisions and take actions on behalf of the company.
Taking a broad approach to securing ambient computing requires moving from compliance to
proactive risk management. Continuously measuring activities against a baseline of expected behavior
can help detect anomalies by providing visibility across layers and into seams. For example, a connected
piece of construction equipment has a fairly exhaustive set of expected behaviors, such as its location,
hours of operation, average speed, and what data it reports. Detecting anything outside of anticipated
norms can trigger a range of responses, from simply logging a potential issue to sending a remote kill
signal that renders the equipment useless.
Over time, security standards will develop, but in the near term we should expect them to be
potentially as effective (or, more fittingly, ineffective) as those surrounding the Web. More elegant
approaches may eventually emerge to manage the interaction points across layers, similar to how
a secured mesh network handles access, interoperability, and monitoring across physical and
logical components.
Meanwhile, privacy concerns over tracking, data ownership, and the creation of derivative data
using advanced analytics persist. There are also a host of unresolved legal questions around liability.
For example, if a self-driving car is involved in an accident, who is at fault? The device manufacturer?
The coder of the algorithm? The human operator? Stifling progress is the wrong answer, but full
transparency will likely be needed while companies and regulators lay the foundation for a safe, secure,
and accepted ambient-computing tomorrow.
Finally, advanced design and engineering of feedback environments will likely be required to
help humans work better with machines, and machines work better with humans. Monitoring the
performance and reliability of ambient systems is likely to be an ongoing challenge requiring the
design of more relevant human and machine interfaces, the implementation of effective automation
algorithms, and the provisioning of helpful decision aids to augment the performance of humans and
machines working togetherin ways that result in hybrid (human and technical) secure, vigilant, and
resilient attributes.
44
Ambient computing
45
46
Ambient computing
Bottom line
MBIENT computing shouldnt be looked at as just a natural extension of mobile and the initial
focus on the capabilities of smartphones, tablets, and wearablesthough some similarities
hold. In those cases, true business value came from translating technical features into doing
things differentlyor doing fundamentally different things. Since ambient computing is adding
connectivity and intelligence to objects and parts of the world that were previously dark, there is
less of a danger of seeing the opportunities only through the lens of todays existing processes and
problems. However, the expansive possibilities and wide-ranging impact of compelling scenarios in
industries such as retail, manufacturing, health care, and the public sector make realizing tomorrows
potential difficult. But not impossible. Depending on the scenario, the benefits could be in efficiency
or innovation, or even a balance of cost reduction and revenue generation. Business leaders should
elevate discussions from the Internet of Things to the power of ambient computing by finding a
concrete business problem to explore, measurably proving the value, and laying the foundation to
leverage the new machine age for true business disruption.
Authors
Andy Daecher, principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP
47
Endnotes
1. Kevin Ashton, That Internet of Things
thing, RFID Journal, June 22, 2009,
http://www.rfidjournal.com/articles/
view?4986, accessed November 12, 2014.
2. Karen A. Frenkel, 12 obstacles to the Internet
of Things, CIO Insight, July 30, 2014, http://
www.cioinsight.com/it-strategy/infrastructure/
slideshows/12-obstacles-to-the-internet-ofthings.html, accessed November 12, 2014.
3. Cisco Systems, Inc., Embracing the Internet of
Everything to capture your share of $14.4 trillion, February 12, 2013, http://www.cisco.com/
web/about/ac79/docs/innov/IoE_Economy.
pdf, accessed November 12, 2014.
4. Jon Gertner, Behind GEs vision for
the industrial Internet Of Things, Fast
Company, June 18, 2014, http://www.
fastcompany.com/3031272/can-jeffimmelt-really-make-the-world-1-better,
accessed November 10, 2014.
5. Deloitte University Press, Tech Trends 2015:
The fusion of business and IT, February 3, 2015.
6. ComEd, Company profile: A company shaped
by customers and employees, https://www.
comed.com/about-us/company-information/
Pages/default.aspx, accessed January 9, 2015.
7. ComEd, Smart grid program supports more
than 2,800 jobs in 2013, press release, April
3, 2014, https://www.comed.com/newsroom/Pages/newsroomreleases_04032014.
pdf, accessed January 9, 2015.
8. ComEd, ComEd receives approval to accelerate smart meter installation, benefits,
press release, June 11, 2014, https://www.
comed.com/newsroom/Pages/newsroomreleases_06112014.pdf, accessed January 9, 2015.
9. Streetline, Success Story: Ellicott City, Maryland,
http://www.streetline.com/success-story-ellicott-city-maryland/, accessed January 13, 2015.
10. Streetline, Becoming a smart city, http://
www.streetline.com/downloads/Smart-CityWhitepaper.pdf, accessed January 9, 2015.
48
Ambient computing
49
Dimensional marketing
Dimensional marketing
New rules for the digital age
51
52
Dimensional marketing
Channel orchestration is
multidimensional: The
technology revolution
Channels and customer touchpoints
are constantly multiplying. Marketers now
own or manage the marketing platforms,
architecture, and integration required to
provide a consistent experience across
channels. Although marketing has evolved
from broadcast to interactivity and now finally
to digital, many organizational capabilities
still remain in silos. With dimensional
brand
rese
arc
h&
ing
pric
manufacturing
de
manufa
ctu
ent
rin
m
p
g
lo
eting
k
r
e
a
m
v
pricing
ice
sa l
es
se rv
sales
pp
su
marketing
&
fulfillment
or
t
f u lfil l m
e nt
53
54
Dimensional marketing
Dimensional platform
Traditionally, marketers focused on
demographics, organizing channels into
silos, and optimizing traditional metrics
such as above- vs. below-the-line spend or
working vs. non-working dollars. Media
buying evolved into a process in which
marketers perform audience analysis, establish
segments, and target each segment with
banner ads, offers, and other tailored content
requiring considerable human involvement
and expertise. With each new channel or
segment, the process complexity and content
permutations increase.
Enter Rocket Fuel Inc., which has
developed a marketing platform featuring
an artificial intelligence (AI) engine for
55
Digital first
Six years ago, Telstra, Australias largest
telecommunications and information services
provider, needed to find a new strategy to
remain competitive. In 2010, Telstra was
facing declining revenues and narrowing profit
margins. The overall market was changing,
with customers dropping fixed-line services.
The internal and external environment was
shifting: the company had completed a multiyear privatization, competition was rising, and
non-traditional competitors in the digital space
were emerging.
The company decided that focusing on
customers should be our number-one priority,
56
Dimensional marketing
57
My take
Ann Lewnes, chief marketing officer,
Adobe
Over the past few years, data and visibility into data
have, in large part, transformed virtually everything
about marketing. In this new customer-focused,
data-driven environment, marketing is missioncritical: Adobes overall success is partly contingent on
marketings ability to deliver personalized, engaging
experiences across all channels.
The need to create such experiences has led us
to develop an even deeper understanding of our
customers, and to construct advanced platforms for
creating, deploying, and measuring dynamic content.
Along the way, weve also pursued opportunities to
leverage technology to improve marketings
back office, as well as to evolve our
relationships with traditional agencies.
Roughly 95 percent of Adobes
customers visit our website,
which translates to more than
650 million unique visits each
month. A variety of applications
make it possible for us to know
who these customers are,
what they do during each visit,
andthrough integration with
social channelswhom they are
connected with. We have applied
personalization and behavioral
targeting capabilities, which help us
provide more engaging experiences
based on individual preferences. We have
also layered in predictive and econometric
modeling capabilities, opening the door for assessing
the ROI of our marketing campaigns. Whereas 10
years ago, marketing may have been perceived as
something intangible or unquantifiable, we now
have hard evidence of our contribution to the
companys success.
58
Dimensional marketing
Cyber implications
IGITAL has changed the scope, rules, and tools of marketing. At the center are customers and the
digital exhaust they leave as they work, shop, and play. This can be valuable information to drive
the new dimensions of marketing: connectivity, engagement, and insight. But it also creates security and
privacy risks.
Fair and limited use is the starting pointfor data youve collected, for data individuals have
chosen to share, for derived data, and for data acquired from third-party partners or services. There
are questions of what a company has permission to do with data. Laws differ across geographies and
industries, informed by both consumer protection statutes and broader regulatory and compliance laws.
Liability is not dependent on being the source of or retaining data; controls need to extend to feeds
being scanned for analytics purposes and data/services being invoked to augment transactions. This is
especially critical, as creating composites of information may turn what were individually innocuous bits
of data into legally binding personally identifiable information (PII).
Privacy concerns may limit the degree of personalization used for offerings and outreach even
when within the bounds of the law. Even if the information is publicly available, customers may cry
Big Brother if it seems that an inappropriate amount of personal information has been gleaned or
a threshold level of intimacy has been breached. Derived data can provide insights into individual
behavior, preferences, and tendencies, which in the hands of marketers and product managers is
invaluable. In the context of cyber security, these insights can also help organizations identify potential
risks. Organizations should clearly communicate to customers the policies and boundaries that govern
what data is being collected and how it will be used.
Public policies, privacy awareness programs, and end-user license agreements are a good start.
But they need to be joined with explicit governance and controls to guide, monitor, and police usage.
User, system, and data-level credentials and entitlements can be used to manage trust and appropriate
access to raw transactions and data. Security and privacy controls can be embedded within content,
integration, and data layersmoving the mechanics into the background so that CMOs and marketing
departments inherit leading practices. The CISO and CIO can bake cyber security into the fabric of how
new services are delivered, and put some level of policy and controls in place.
Finally, understanding your organizations threat beacon can help direct limited cyber security
resources toward the more likely vectors of attack. Dimensional marketing expands the pool of
potentially valuable customer information. Organizations that are pivoting their core business into
digital assets and offerings only complicate the matter. Core product IP and the digital supply chain
come into play as digital marketing becomes inseparable from ordering, provisioning, fulfillment,
billing, and servicing digital goods and services.
Asset and rights management may be new problems marketing has not traditionally had to deal
with, but the root issues are related to the implications described above. Organizations should get ready
for the radical shift in the digital marketing landscape, or security and privacy concerns may slow or
undermine their efforts.
59
60
Dimensional marketing
61
Bottom line
ARTNERS 2014 CEO survey found that CEOs rank digital marketing as the No. 1 most
important tech-enabled capability for investment over the next five years.16 And with
marketings expanded scope likely including the integration of marketing systems with CRM
and ERP systems in areas such as pricing, inventory, order management, and product R&D, ITs
mission, if they choose to accept it, is to help drive the vision, prioritization, and realization of
dimensional marketing. IT can potentially use its mission as a Trojan horse to reinvent delivery
models, technology platforms, and ITs reputation across the business. Who better than the CMO to
help change the brand perception of the CIO? And who else but the CIO can help deliver analytics,
mobile, social, and Web while maintaining the enterprise ilitiessecurity, reliability, scalability,
maintainability, and interoperability? The stage is set. It is time for the next wave of leaders to deliver.
62
Dimensional marketing
Authors
Mike Brinker, Deloitte Digital leader, Deloitte Consulting LLP
Singer is a principal at Deloitte Consulting LLP and leads the Digital Agency
offering within Deloitte Digital. With over 18 years of experience, he
brings a powerful combination of creative intuition mixed with marketing
know-how and technological acumen. Singer helps clients transform
their brand into modern multidimensional marketers with an integrated
focus on customer experience, data and insights, design, content creation,
media, production, and technology-based engagement platforms.
63
Endnotes
1. Philip Kotler and Kevin Miller, Marketing Management, 14th Edition (New
Jersey: Prentice Hall, 2014).
2. Internet Live Stats, http://www.internetlivestats.
com/internet-users/, accessed January 6, 2015.
3. Pew Research Internet Project, Mobile
technology fact sheet, http://www.pewinternet.org/fact-sheets/mobile-technologyfact-sheet/, accessed January 6, 2015.
4. Gene Phifer, Hype cycle for Web computing, 2014, Gartner, Inc., July 23, 2014.
5. Deloitte LLP, The omnichannel opportunity:
Unlocking the power of the connected consumer,
February 2014, http://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/Documents/consumerbusiness/unlocking-the-power-of-the-connected-consumer.pdf, accessed January 6, 2015.
6. Deloitte Consulting LLP, Tech Trends 2014: Inspiring disruption, chapter 7, February 6, 2014,
http://dupress.com/periodical/trends/techtrends-2014/, accessed November 10, 2014.
7. Adam Sarner and Jake Sorofman,
Hype cycle for digital marketing,
2014, Gartner, Inc., July 2, 2014.
8. Teradata, 2013 Teradata data-driven marketing
survey, global, August 5, 2013, http://assets.
teradata.com/resourceCenter/downloads/
TeradataApplications/Survey/Teradata%20
-%20Data-Driven%20Marketing%20
Survey%202013%20Full%20Report%20WP.
pdf?processed=1, accessed January 6, 2015.
64
9. David Card, Whats needed from marketing clouds, part II, Gigaom, August 31,
2014, http://gigaom.com/2014/08/31/
whats-needed-from-marketing-cloudspart-ii/, accessed January 6, 2015.
10. See Anthony Ha, BuzzFeed says new flight
mode campaign shows The consumerization
of B2B marketing, TechCrunch, June 23,
2013, http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/23/
buzzfeed-flight-mode/, and Graham Gillen, The consumerization effect: Is your
company ready for B2C buying in the B2B
world?, Pragmatic Marketing, http://www.
pragmaticmarketing.com/resources/the-consumerization-effect, accessed January 10, 2015.
11. CrowdSupport is a registered trade mark
of Telstra Corporation Limited.
12. Deloitte Consulting LLP, Tech Trends
2015: The fusion of business and IT,
chapter 3, February 3, 2015.
13. Deloitte Consulting LLP, Tech Trends 2014: Inspiring disruption, chapter 5, February 6, 2014,
http://dupress.com/periodical/trends/techtrends-2014/, accessed November 10, 2014.
14. David Card, Sector roadmap: Marketingtechnology platforms, Gigaom, August 27,
2014, http://research.gigaom.com/report/
sector-roadmap-marketing-technologyplatforms/, accessed January 6, 2015.
15. Deloitte Consulting LLP, Tech
Trends 2014, chapter 7.
16. Jennifer S. Beck, 2014 CEO Survey
Points to Digital Marketings Growing
Impact, Gartner, Inc., April 9, 2014.
Dimensional marketing
65
Software-defined everything
Software-defined
everything
Breaking virtualizations final frontier
67
Software-defined everything
The network is not the only thing being
reimagined. Software-defined storage (SDS)
represents logical storage arrays that can be
dynamically defined, provisioned, managed,
optimized, and shared. Coupled with
compute and network virtualization, entire
operating environments can be abstracted and
automated. The software-defined data center
(SDDC) is also becoming a reality. A Forrester
report estimates that static virtual servers,
private clouds, and hosted private clouds will
68
Software-defined everything
Software-defined savingsa
A Deloitte analysis of normalized data from software-defined data center
(SDDC) business cases for Fortune 50 clients revealed that moving eligible
systems to an SDDC can reduce spending on those systems by approximately
20 percent. These savings can be realized with current technology offerings
and may increase over time as new products emerge and tools mature. Not
every system is suited for migration; ideal candidates are those without tight
integration to legacy infrastructure or bespoke platforms.
Infrastructure
Application development
Production support
Values in $ millions.
soft
31%
lever 1
38%
20%
lever 2
25%
49%
46%
hard
69%
33%
lever 3
37%
41%
12%
15%
14%
total
tech
spend:
$5,000
spend
in scope
for sddc:
$3,350
reduced
spend due
to sddc:
$2,700
revenue
$25+ billion
technology spend
$5+ billion
employees
150,000+
55%
36%
Company profile
sddc
savings
by typeb
sddc
savings
by lever
From IT to profit
Business executives should not dismiss
software-defined everything as a tactical
technical concern. Infrastructure is the supply
chain and logistics network of IT. It can be
a costly, complex, bottleneckor, if done
well, a strategic weapon. SDDC offers ways to
remove recurring costs. Organizations should
consider modernizing their data centers and
69
70
Software-defined everything
Divvying up expertise
with a PaaS7
AmerisourceBergens IntrinsiQ unit is a
leading provider of oncology-focused software.
IntrinsiQs applications automate nearly every
element of oncologyfrom treatment options
to drug prescriptionsand the software is
onsite at more than 700 clinics across the
United States and Canada. These installations
are important for the companys physician
clients, but installing and maintaining software
across hundreds of locations comes with
significant overhead.
To ease the overhead burden, IntrinsiQ
opted to deploy a single-instance, multitenant application to reduce software
development and long-term maintenance
costs. The 80-person company, however,
had no experience in multi-tenancy or in
developing the underlying layers of a cloudbased application. Moreover, in moving to
the cloud, IntrinsiQ had to demonstrate to
its customers that the security of patient data
would continue to be compliant with strict
industry regulations.
71
72
Software-defined everything
Next-generation infrastructure
Since joining Little Rock-based Acxiom,
a global enterprise data, analytics, and
SaaS company, in 2013, Dennis Self, senior
vice president and CIO, has made it his
mission to lead the organization into the
new world of software-defined everything.
Historically, weve propagated physical,
dedicated infrastructure to support the
marketing databases we provide customers,
he says. With next-gen technologies, there
are opportunities to improve our time
to deliver, increase utilization levels, and
reduce the overall investment required for
implementation and operational activities.
In early 2014, Self s team began working
to virtualize that infrastructureincluding
the network and compute environments. The
73
74
Software-defined everything
My take
Greg Lavender,
Managing director, Cloud Architecture and Infrastructure Engineering,
Office of the CTO
Citi
At Citi, the IT services we provide to our customers
are built on top of thousands of physical and virtual
systems deployed globally. Citi infrastructure supports
a highly regulated, highly secure, highly demanding
transactional workload. Because of these demands,
performance, scale, and reliabilitydelivered as
efficiently as possibleare essential to our global
business operations. The business organizations also
task IT with supporting innovation by providing the IT
vision, engineering, and operations for new services,
solutions, and offerings. Our investments in softwaredefined data centers are helping on both fronts.
With 21 global data centers and system architectures
ranging from scale-up mainframes and storage
frames to scale-out commodity servers and storage,
dealing effectively with large-scale IT complexity is
mission-critical to our business partners. We became
early adopters of server virtualization by introducing
automation to provisioning several years ago, and
we manage thousands of virtual machines across
our data centers. The next step was to virtualize the
network, which we accomplished by moving to a
new two-tier spine-and-leaf IP network fabric similar
to what public cloud providers have deployed. That
new physical network architecture has enabled our
software-defined virtual networking overlays and
our next generation software-defined commodity
storage fabrics. We still maintain a large traditional
fiber channel storage environment, but many new
services are being deployed on the new architecture,
such as big data, NoSQL and NewSQl data services,
grid computing, virtual desktop infrastructure, and our
private cloud services.
Currently, we are engaged in three key objectives to
create a secure global private cloud. The first objective
focuses on achieving cloud scale services. As we
move beyond IT as separate compute, network, and
storage silos to a scale-out cloud service model, we
are building capabilities for end-to-end systems scaled
horizontally and elastically within our data centers
and potentially in the not-too-distant future, hybrid
cloud services. The second objective is about achieving
cloud speed of delivery by accelerating environment
provisioning, speeding up the deployment of updates
and new capabilities, and delivering productivity gains
Cyber implications
ISK should be a foundational consideration as servers, storage, networks, and data centers are
replatformed. The new infrastructure stack is becoming software-defined, deeply integrated across
components, and potentially provisioned through the cloud. Traditional security controls, preventive
measures, and compliance initiatives have been challenged from the outset because the technology stack
they sit on top of was inherently designed as an open, insecure platform. To have an effective softwaredefined technology stack, key concepts around things like access, logging and monitoring, encryption,
and asset management need to be reassessed, and, if necessary, enhanced if they are to be relevant. There
are new layers of complexity, new degrees of volatility, and a growing dependence on assets that may not
be fully within your control. The risk profile expands as critical infrastructure and sensitive information
is distributed to new and different players. Though software-defined infrastructure introduces risks, it
also creates opportunity to address some of the more mundane but significant challenges in day-to-day
security operations.
Security components that integrate into the software-defined stack may be different from what
you own todayespecially considering federated ownership, access, and oversight of pieces of the
highly integrated stack. Existing tools may need to be updated or new tools procured that are built
specifically for highly virtual or cloud-based assets. Governance and policy controls will likely need to be
modernized. Trust zones should be considered: envelopes that can manage groups of virtual components
for policy definition and updates across virtual blocks, virtual machines, and hypervisors. Changes
outside of controls can be automatically denied and the extended stack can be continuously monitored
for incident detection and policy enforcement.
Just as importantly, revamped cyber security components should be designed to be consistent with
the broader adoption of real-time DevOps. Moves to software-defined infrastructure are often not
just about cost reduction and efficiency gains; they can set the stage for more streamlined, responsive
IT capabilities, and help address some of todays more mundane but persistent challenges in security
operations. Governance, policy engines, and control points should be designed accordinglypreferably
baked into new delivery models at the point of inception. Security and controls considerations can
be built into automated approaches to building management, configuration management, asset
awareness, deployment, and system automationallowing risk management to become muscle memory.
Requirements and testing automation can also include security and privacy coverage, creating a core
discipline aligned with cyber security strategies.
Similarly, standard policies, security elements, and control points can be embedded into new
environment templates as they are defined. Leading organizations co-opt infrastructure modernization
with a push for highly standardized physical and logical configurations. Standards that are clearly
defined, consistently rolled out, and tightly enforced can be a boon for cyber security. Vulnerabilities
abound in unpatched, noncompliant operating systems, applications, and services. Eliminating variances
and proactively securing newly defined templates can reduce potential threats and provide a more
accurate view of your risk profile.
76
Software-defined everything
77
78
Software-defined everything
Bottom line
N mature IT organizations, moving eligible systems to an SDDC can reduce spending on those
systems by approximately 20 percent, which frees up budget needed to pursue higher-order
endeavors.9 These demonstrated returns can help spur the initial investment required to fulfill
virtualizations potential by jump-starting shifts from physical to logical assets and lowering total
cost of ownership. With operational costs diminishing and efficiencies increasing, companies will be
able to create more scalable, responsive IT organizations that can launch innovative new endeavors
quickly and remove performance barriers from existing business approaches. In doing so, they can
fundamentally reshape the underlying backbone of IT and business.
Authors
Ranjit Bawa, principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP
Clark is a director with Deloitte Consulting LLP and leads the Cloud
Implementation capability within the Technology Strategy & Architecture
practice. He has more than 30 years of experience assisting clients with
large-scale information technology. His core competencies are IT strategy,
enterprise architecture, and infrastructure and networking. Clark has
pioneered many of Deloittes investments in cloud technologies, including
the development and delivery of Deloittes Cloud ServiceFabric.
79
Endnotes
1. Deloitte Consulting LLP, Depth Perception: A dozen technology trends shaping
business and IT in 2010, June 15, 2010.
2. Dave Bartoletti, Strategic Benchmarks
2014: Server virtualization, Forrester
Research Inc., March 6, 2014.
3. Computer Economics, IT spending and staffing
benchmarks 2014/2015, chapter 2, June 2014.
4. Deloitte Consulting LLP, Tech Trends 2014:
Inspiring disruption, chapter 10, February 6,
2014, http://dupress.com/periodical/trends/
tech-trends-2014/, accessed January 14, 2015.
5. Matthew Mardin, Cisco preparing its datacenters for the next generation of virtualization and hybrid cloud with its Application
Centric Infrastructure, IDC, May 2014.
80
Software-defined everything
81
Core renaissance
Core renaissance
Revitalizing the heart of IT
Business first
Amid continuously evolving business
pressures and technology trends, several
questions arise: How will the core hold up?
(Consider, first, the business angle.) How
well do existing solutions meet todays needs?
(Consider not just functional completeness,
but increasingly relevant dimensions like
usability, analytics insights, and flexibility
to respond to changing business dynamics.)
Does the core IT stack help or hinder the
achievement of day-to-day goals across users,
departments, processes, and workloads?
Of course, underlying technical concerns
are also important. But their impact should
be quantified in business terms. Translate the
abstract specter of technical debt into business
risks. Technical scalability can be measured in
83
Replatform
modernize the
technology footprint
of infrastructure to
improve performance
and ability to scale.
consolidate instances
and environments.
upgrade to current
releases of applications
and underlying
technologies (libraries,
(platforms, databases).
84
Remediate
encapsulate data,
interfaces, and business
logic into reusable,
extendable services.
repair technical debt by
addressing development
issues and architectural
concerns.
cleanse data quality
issues, security, and
compliance risks.
Revitalize
reshape the businesss
transactional layer with
digital extensions (Web,
mobile, social) and usercentric process redesign.
implement visualization
and discovery tools to
improve reporting and
analytics on top of
underlying systems.
innovate new ideas,
products, and offerings,
using core foundation.
Replace
migrate fulfillment of
some functional areas
to custom, best-of-breed
apps or cloud services.
redefine business
processes and core
in the solution footprint,
removing unnecessary
dependencies.
retire superfluous
or aging pieces of the
technology landscape.
Core renaissance
85
Beyond technology
For any of the techniques described
above, the technology implications are
only part of the renaissance of the core.
Business processes need to evolve in line
with modernized solution stacks, potentially
requiring new talent with new skills as well
as the development of existing staff. Likewise,
IT organization structures and delivery
models may need to change to put in place
mechanisms to support new technologies
and maintain commitments to modernized
solutions. Every new system or bit of code
can either be on-strategy or create the next
generation of technical debt. IT should
invoke a mantra of institutionally doing no
86
Core renaissance
88
Core renaissance
89
My take
Terry Milholland, chief technology officer,
Internal Revenue Service
2014 saw one of the smoothest filing seasons ever
for the IRS. Its an encouraging sign that our efforts
to turn the agencys IT department into a world-class
organization are paying off. Beyond supporting the
IRSs customer-centric transformation, we wanted
to evolve IT to deal with the complexity of our
operations. Budgeting processes are complicated and
unpredictable. Tax implications of legislation like the
Affordable Care Act need to be codified for the hard
deadlines of the tax season. Decades-old technologies
require modernization. But our team has risen to the
challenge, and were seeing tremendous results.
Weve created a vision for IT to be on a par
with Fortune 100 organizations, and
that affects our people, process, and
technology. At the center of the
technical vision are data and
servicesallowing our core
systems to interact with each
other and keeping teams from
repeating their efforts. We now
have a logical and physical data
model for the full submission
processmore than 30,000
attributes manifested across our
core. Coupled with a serviceoriented architecture, were creating
a repeatable approach to building
on top of our coreto be able to add
new technology in a transformational
way, responsive to mission needs.
Which is where process comes in. Were committed
to an agile methodologyusing our new standards
to modernize and grow. We have selected a set of
technology standards that the organization follows
to increase productivity and quality; were already at
level 3 for CMMI and ITIL.6 The impact on quality has
been very real, and has helped break down barriers
between the different teams and pieces of the
technical stack.
90
Core renaissance
Cyber implications
OME organizations treat ownership and control as a proxy for managing risk. Because the core is
often software built on-premises or bought, this approach suffers from a twofold misconception. The
first is that the existing stack is reasonably secure. The second is that moving to new technologies, be
they mobile, social, or cloud, inherently raises the risk profile. Neither is universally true, and both raise
the need for strategic handling of cyber security concerns.
The notion that todays IT footprints are secure enough is a dangerous one. Legacy projects may
not have considered compliance, contractual, or risk-based requirements adequately, if at all. A
lack of strategic focus and budget has relegated many security initiatives to compliance and control
activitiesadding scope or causing rework to address vulnerabilities discovered late in the development
cycle. Reactionary measures are taken when high-profile breaches occur, typically targeting known
threats linked to particular incidents. A more comprehensive approach to cyber security is needed,
acknowledging that it could be exorbitantly costly to protect against every potential attack.
Organizations should identify the cyber beacon that is likely to attract threats. Resources should
then be directed against assets that potential attackers may likely find most valuable, or those that,
if compromised, could cause greatest damage. Beyond securing against attack, organizations should
monitor emerging threats and potentially reallocate resources as their cyber beacons changepracticing
vigilance, not just security. They should prepare for how to detect, contain, and respond to potential
incidents. There may be no such thing as a hacker-proof organization, but you can still be resilient in the
face of an attack. Hope and luck are not strategies; even if the core has not been compromised, that does
not mean it is secure. Building out cyber security capabilities can help close the gap.
The misconception that emerging technologies are inherently riskier than legacy assets is common,
as is the myth that on-premises solutions are always more secure than cloud alternatives. Privacy
concerns typically dominate discussions around socialrequiring policy, training, and monitoring to
guide appropriate behaviors. Mobile concerns fall between security and privacy, especially as enterprises
are embracing bring your own device and bring your own app strategies. The approach described
above can help, with a mindset anchored in probable and acceptable risk. Prepare for strategies to secure
information at the device, application, and, potentially, data level while being sensitive to the overall
user experience. Security tops concerns about public cloud adoption, with the rationale that large
infrastructure-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and software-as-a-service providers are obvious and
lucrative targets for cyber criminals. But with the escalated potential bounty, public cloud vendors also
typically have highly sophisticated security tools, procedures, and personnel that can be more effective
than many company and agency in-house cyber defenses. Who is better prepared to win the cyber
arms race? Cloud providers whose livelihood likely depends on their ability to prevent and respond to
incidents? Or organizations that have historically had trouble justifying security and privacy budgets as
a priority? Either way, the obligations of the organization as the acquirer and custodian of data do not
go away. Leverage providers to help outsource risk if cyber isnt a core strength, but recognize that your
organization still retains responsibility for its security.
Again, there is no universal answer. Security and privacy should not be a blanket objection that
curtails core renaissance, but they should be baked into the overall approachsetting the right
foundation for a revitalized core and guiding new investments in areas that will form the core of
tomorrows business.
91
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Core renaissance
93
Bottom line
ISRUPTIVE forces are reshaping industries: globalization, emerging technologies, new customer
engagement requirements, diminishing competitive barriers to entry, evolving regulatory
and compliance requirements, and persistent threats around security and privacy. All of these are
inextricably linked to technology, moving the core to center stage. Some modernization will no
doubt be needed to keep the lights on as the business scales up. But beyond table stakes, a revitalized
core could become a strategic differentiator. A renaissance of the core amid an elevation of IT
to support the heart of the business can lay the foundation for the organization to experiment,
innovate, and grow.
Authors
Scott Buchholz, director, Deloitte Consulting LLP
McAleer is a principal with Deloitte Consulting LLP and leads the Enterprise
Digital Engagement practice within Deloitte Digital, where he manages
the go-to-market relationship with leading technology vendors. He
provides strategy and vision to help clients adopt solutions that improve
business performance. With over 24 years of experience, he specializes
in business transformation, strategic planning and execution, system
integration, custom application development, and enterprise software.
94
Core renaissance
Endnotes
1. Bob Evans, Dear CIO: Is the time bomb in
your IT budget about to explode?, Forbes,
January 22, 2013, http://www.forbes.com/
sites/oracle/2013/01/22/dear-cio-is-thetime-bomb-in-your-it-budget-about-toexplode/, accessed January 14, 2015.
95
Amplified intelligence
Amplified intelligence
Power to the people
ODAYS information age could be affectionately called the rise of the machines.
The foundations of data management, business
intelligence, and reporting have created a massive demand for advanced analytics, predictive
modeling, machine learning, and artificial
intelligence. In near real time, we are now
capable of unleashing complex queries and
statistical methods, performed on vast volumes
of heterogeneous information.
But for all of its promise, big data left
unbounded can be a source of financial
and intellectual frustration, confusion, and
exhaustion. The digital universe is expected
to grow to 40 zettabytes by 2020 through a
50x explosion in enterprise data.1 Advanced
techniques can be distracting if they arent
properly focused. Leading companies have
flipped the script; they are focusing on
concrete, bounded questions with meaningful
business implicationsand using those
implications to guide data, tools, and
technique. The potential of the machine is
harnessed around measurable insights. But
98
Amplified intelligence
device
original
query
search
results
selected
pairs
synonym
engine
network
original
query
search
results
search
system &
engine
synonym
pairs
ranked
pairs
revised
queries
query
terms
query
revision
engine
Sources: a Danny Sullivan, Googles Impressive Conversational Search Goes Live On Chrome, May 22, 2013, http://searchengineland.com/googlesimpressive-conversational-search-goes-live-on-chrome-160445, accessed October 14, 2014. b Abhijit A. Mahabal et al, United States Patent 8,538,984
B1: Synonym Identification Based on Co-occuring Terms, September 17, 2013, http://www.google.com/patents/US8538984, accessed October 14, 2014.
99
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Amplified intelligence
101
102
Amplified intelligence
103
My take
Thomas H. Davenport
Presidents Distinguished Professor at Babson College
Visiting professor at Harvard Business School
Independent senior advisor to Deloitte Analytics
There is little doubt that computers have taken
substantial work away from lower- and middle-skilled
jobs. Bank tellers, airline reservations clerks, and
assembly line workers can all testify to this effect.
Thus far, however, high-end knowledge workers
have been relatively safe from job encroachment.
Computers have certainly changed knowledge work,
but they have largely augmented human labor rather
than replacing it.
Now, however, knowledge workers face a challenge
to their own employment. Analytical and
cognitive computing technologies can make
almost any decision with a high degree of
accuracy and reliability. From Jeopardy!
questions to cancer diagnosis to credit
risk decisions, there seems to be no
decision domain that smart machines
cant conquer.
Thus far, its been rare for a manager,
professional, or highly specialized
worker to lose a job for this reason.
The decisions automated have been
relatively narrow, and only small parts
of knowledge workers roles have been
supplanted. For example, while automated
radiological image analysis can identify certain
cancers, at most their use has been to supply a
second set of eyes for a radiologists diagnosis.
However, if my children were planning to become
lawyers, doctors, accountants, journalists, teachers,
or any of the many other fields for which automated
or semi-automated offerings have already been
developed, I would have some advice for them (which
I am sure they would ignore!). I would advise the
following actions:
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Amplified intelligence
Cyber implications
YBER security and data privacy considerations should be a part of analytics conversations, especially
as amplified intelligence moves insights more directly into the heart of how, and where, business
occurs. Information should be monitored and protected when it is at rest, in flight, and in use. These
three scenarios feature different actors using different platforms and that require different cyber security
techniques. Moreover, for each scenario, you must know how to manage misuse, respond to breaches,
and circle back with better security and vigilance.
At rest is the traditional view of information security: How does one protect assets from being
compromised or stolen? Firewalls, antivirus software, intrusion detection, and intrusion prevention
systems are still needed, but are increasingly less effective as attackers rapidly evolve their tools and
move from smash and grab ploys to long-dwell cybercrimes. Instead of an outright offense that may
leave telltale signs, attackers gain access and lie dormantlaunching incremental, almost imperceptible
activities to discover vulnerabilities and gain access to valuable IP.
The additional emphasis on in flight and in use reflects a shift in how organizations put their
underlying data to use. Information is increasingly consumed in the field via mobile, potentially on
personally owned consumer devices. Encryption can help with transmission and data retention. Identity,
access, and entitlement management can help properly control user actions, especially when coupled
with two-factor authentication. Application, data, and/or device-level containers can protect against
attacks on the network, hardware, or other resident apps. Again, though, these demonstrated techniques
may not be enough, given the growing sophistication of criminal products, services, and markets.
Organizations should couple traditional techniques with advanced analytics, amplifying the
intelligence of cyber security personnel. Leading cyber initiatives balance reactionary methods with
advanced techniques to identify the coming threat and proactively respond. They take a fusion of
information from a range of sources with differing conceptual and contextual scope, and combine
it with human-centered signals such as locations, identity, and social interactions of groups and
individuals. This approach has a number of implications. First, it creates the need to adopt a broader
cyber intelligence mindsetone that leverages intel from both internal and external sources. Insight
pulled from new signals of potentially hostile activities in the network can point to areas where security
professionals should focus. Similar to how amplified intelligence informs approaches to business
operations, this raw security data should be analyzed and presented in ways to augment an individuals
ability to take action.
Machine learning and predictive analytics can take cyber security a step farther. If normal at rest,
in flight, and in use behavior can be baselined, advanced analytics can be applied to detect deviations
from the norm. With training to define sensitivities and thresholds, security teams capabilities can be
amplified with real-time visibility into potential risks when or before they occur. At first, this ability is
likely to simply guide manual investigation and response, but eventually it could move to prescriptive
handlingpotentially enabling security systems to automatically respond to threat intelligence and take
action to predict and prevent or promptly detect, isolate, and contain an event when it occurs.
105
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Amplified intelligence
107
Bottom line
TS easy to get stuck on the what? of analyticstrying to define conceptual models for the
enterprises wide range of information concerns. Leading companies, however, have aggressively
pursued the so what?prioritizing crunchy questions with measurable value as the focal points
of their endeavors. Amplified intelligence represents the now what? of moving from theoretical
exercises to deploying solutions where business decisions are actually made. Usability and outcomes
should take their rightful place over platforms, tools, and dataimportant ingredients, to be sure,
but only part of the recipe. While the machine continues to rise to impressive new heights, its
immediate potential comes from putting it in the right hands, in the right manner, when it counts.
Authors
Forrest Danson, US Deloitte Analytics leader, Deloitte Consulting LLP
Shilling is a principal at Deloitte Consulting LLP and leads the Digital Agency
offering within Deloitte Digital. He has more than 18 years of experience
helping clients define and implement effective customer experience platforms
for awareness, engagement, acquisition, and loyalty at scale. Shilling brings
a powerful combination of practical creative abilities mixed with marketing
know-how and technological acumen, helping to transform several of todays
brands into modern multidimensional marketers.
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Amplified intelligence
Endnotes
1. Jeff Bertolucci, 10 powerful facts about
big data, InformationWeek, June 10, 2014,
http://www.informationweek.com/big-data/
big-data-analytics/10-powerful-facts-aboutbig-data/d/d-id/1269522?image_number=4, accessed October 23, 2014.
7. Brad Stone, Invasion of the taxi snatchers: Uber leads an industrys disruption,
Bloomberg BusinessWeek, February 20,
2014, http://www.businessweek.com/
articles/2014-02-20/uber-leads-taxi-industrydisruption-amid-fight-for-riders-drivers
109
112
Design as a discipline
Design lies at the heart of the IT worker
of the future. The emphasis on design may
require new skill sets for the extended
IT teamwhich may include graphic
designers, user experience engineers, cultural
anthropologists, and behavioral psychologists.
IT leaders should add an A for fine arts to
the science, technology, engineering, and
math charterSTEAM, not STEM. Designing
engaging solutions requires creative talent;
creativity is also critical in ideationhelping
to create a vision of reimagined work, or to
develop disruptive technologies deployed via
storyboards, user journeys, wire frames, or
persona maps. Some organizations have gone
so far as to hire science fiction writers to help
imagine and explain moonshot thinking.13
Design can also underpin more agile,
responsive techniques in IT management and
delivery by instilling a culture focused on
usabilitynot just concentrating on the look
and feel of the user interface, but addressing
the underlying architectural layers. Design
can rally Dev and Ops around a shared vision
of improved end-to-end design and enduser experienceresponsiveness, reliability,
scalability, security, and maintainability
in streamlined and automated build and
run capabilities.
Computer
systems
analysts
App
developers
Systems
developers
Computer
user support
specialists
Information
security
analysts
growth rate
growth rate
growth rate
growth rate
growth rate
20%
20%
employment
employment
25%
23%
employment
employment
752,900
648,400
37%
employment
658,500
487,800
102,500
2012
2022
2012
2022
2012
2022
2012
2022
2012
2022
behavioral
psychologist
graphic
designer
user experience
engineer
science fiction
writer
artist
cultural
anthropologist
Sources: a Dennis Vilorio, STEM 101: Intro to tomorrows jobs, Occupational Outlook Quarterly, spring 2014, http://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/
2014/spring/art01.pdf, accessed January 13, 2015. b Change the Equation, What are your states STEM vital signs?, July 2013,
http://changetheequation.org/sites/default/files/About%20Vital%20Signs.pdf, accessed January 13, 2015. c United States Department
of Commerce, The state of our unions 21st century workforce, February 6, 2012, http://www.commerce.gov/blog/2012/02/06/
state-our-union%E2%80%99s-21st-century-workforce, accessed January 13, 2015.
113
Bringing it home
Many IT organizations are improving their
ability to sense and respond to emerging trends
and modernize legacy systems and delivery
models. Really understanding your workforce
is important: Who do you have, what skills do
they bring, and are they sufficiently forwardthinking in their use of technology to lead
your organization in innovation? Consider
the future IT workers new skill sets and
behaviors. A tactical example is the recent
bring your own device trend. Seventy percent
of Millennials admit to bringing their own
applications from outside their enterprise to
support their work14a trend that will likely
only grow as more cloud, mobile, and analytics
offerings target the workplace. Organizations
need to set policies that guide, govern, and
support workers evolving adoption of external
devices, applications, data, and collaboration.
114
115
116
117
My take
Michael Keller, EVP and chief information officer,
Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company
An important part of Nationwides IT strategy is to
become a learning-driven organization that anticipates
and adapts to changes in business demand and
technology trends. We know that the incredible pace
of technology change means we need to rethink
traditional, incremental approaches to workforce
development and planning. Were committed to
keeping an internal competency in IT, and we realize
that the size and skill sets of our IT workforce will be
substantially different in the future. To get from here
to there, were evaluating a variety of approaches,
including how we recruit and train employees,
manage suppliers, and form vendor alliances.
Nationwide IT has teamed with our
companys human resources and sourcing
and supplier management groups to
take a fresh look at workforce needs,
organizational optimization, and
associate readiness for change.
Together, we are working to
better understand our workforce
acquisition process and the way
we deploy internal and external
resources. Our goal is to become
more efficient at measuring the
success of our vendor partners and
to develop support mechanisms that
help associates and leaders strengthen
their roles in the change process. With
the engagement and involvement of
our associates, we are focusing on career
development opportunities. As a result of many of
these efforts, we are experiencing higher retention,
productivity, and loyalty. Its a two-way street that
works for both our associates and Nationwide. Its
about a commitment to our peoplewhich is a core
value for our organization.
Technology trends are creating significant changes in
the way IT associates approach their jobs. For example,
our move from custom-developed applications to
package and SaaS-based solutions changes the way
our application development teams work. Similarly,
118
Cyber implications
ECHNOLOGY has entered an era of usability, openness, and convenience. End users expect
solutions to be simple, intuitive, and easy to use, not just for the IT worker of the future, but for the
entire workplace of the future.
At the same time, the stakes around cyber security and data privacy continue to increase, making
cyber risk management a strategic priority across industries. Yet traditional techniques like complex
passwords, containers, key fob two-factor authentication, and CAPTCHA verification can interrupt the
end-user journey. Frustrated users may look for shortcuts or alternative means for carrying out their
business. In doing so, they often bypass controls and introduce new vulnerabilities. Security protocols
can only be effective if users follow them.
Therefore, it is critical to balance the need for security with a focus on user experience (UX) by
creating a well-integrated, unobtrusive risk framework that is anchored around the end users journey.
Superior user experiences will have security attributes so tightly integrated that they are barely
noticeable; they can quietly and unobtrusively guide users toward more vigilant and resilient behaviors.
For example, technical advances in fingerprint authentication, facial recognition, and voice detection
embedded into commonly used consumer devices make it possible to protect without sacrificing user
interface flows.
This marriage of UX and cyber risk management has a dark side. New threat vectors target
weaknesses of specific personas within your employee basespoofing alerts to update mobile apps
with malicious proxies or corrupted links posing as social media interactions. The response cannot
just be more usable, intuitive, risk-managed systemseducation and awareness are critical. Arm your
employees with not only the what, but the why and the so what. Beyond enforcing compliance,
make cyber risk management a strategic organizational pillar and a shared cultural concern embedded
across solution life cycles and operational processes. A broader enterprise governance structure can help,
communicating the intent and importance of cyber security measures. Your employees should be taught
how to identify and handle risk, not just how to comply with the minutiae of policies and controls.
The combination of cyber-aware user experiences and education programs can elevate security and
privacy beyond being reactive and defensive. And IT workers arent just end users. They are also the
creators and managers of the systems and platforms that drive the business. Cyber security and privacy
should be tightly integrated into how software is delivered, how systems are maintained, and how
business processes are executed. As new IT organizational and delivery models emerge, build muscle
memory around modern approaches to security and privacy. The IT workers of the future can become
the new front and back line of defenseinformed, equipped, and empowered.
119
120
121
Bottom line
Authors
Catherine Bannister, director, Deloitte Consulting LLP
Endnotes
1. Dr. Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic, Why
Millennials want to work for themselves,
Fast Company, August 13, 2014, http://www.
fastcompany.com/3034268/the-future-ofwork/why-millennials-want-to-work-forthemselves, accessed November 10, 2014.
2. Allie Bidwell, Report: Economy will face
shortage of 5 million workers in 2020, U.S.
News and World Report, July 8, 2013, http://
www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/07/08/report-economy-will-face-shortage-of-5-millionworkers-in-2020, accessed November 10, 2014.
3. Sohan Murthy, Revisiting gender
inequality in tech, LinkedIn Today,
July 8, 2014, https://www.linkedin.
com/pulse/article/2014070815110172012765-revisiting-gender-inequalityin-tech, accessed November 10, 2014.
4. Christopher Mims, Computer programming is a trade; lets act like it, Wall Street
Journal, August 3, 2014, http://online.wsj.
com/articles/computer-programmingis-a-trade-lets-act-like-it-1407109947,
accessed November 10, 2014.
5. Aaron Smith, U.S. views of technology and
the future, Pew Research Internet Project,
April 17, 2014, http://www.pewinternet.
org/2014/04/17/us-views-of-technologyand-the-future/, accessed November 10,
2014; Emerging nations embrace Internet, mobile technology, Pew Research
Global Attitudes Project, February 13, 2014,
http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/02/13/
emerging-nations-embrace-internet-mobiletechnology/, accessed November 10, 2014.
6. John Hagel, John Seely Brown, and Duleesha
Kulasooriya, A movement in the making,
Deloitte University Press, January 24, 2014,
http://dupress.com/articles/a-movement-inthe-making/, accessed November 10, 2014.
7. Deloitte, Big demands and high expectations:
The Deloitte Millennial SurveyExecutive
summary, January 2014, http://www2.deloitte.
com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/
About-Deloitte/gx-dttl-2014-millennial-survey-report.pdf, accessed November 10, 2014.
8. Julianne Pepitone, Marissa Mayer: Yahoos
can no longer work from home, CNN
Money, February 25, 2013, http://money.cnn.
com/2013/02/25/technology/yahoo-workfrom-home/, accessed November 10, 2014.
123
124
125
Exponentials
Exponentials
Inspiring disruption
In our Technology Trends 2014 report,
we took a look at exponentials for the
first time. In collaboration with faculty at
Singularity University, a leading research
institutionbased in the heart of Silicon
Valley and whose founders include Cisco,
Google, and otherswe explored innovations
that are accelerating faster than the pace
of Moores law, that is, technologies whose
performance relative to cost (and size) doubles
every 12 to 18 months. The rapid growth of
exponentials has significant implications.
Powerful technologiesincluding quantum
computing, artificial intelligence (AI), robotics,
additive manufacturing, and synthetic or
industrial biologyare ushering in new and
disruptive competitive risks and opportunities
for enterprises that have historically enjoyed
dominant positions in their industries. In this
years Technology Trends report, we once again
discuss exponentials to build awareness and
share new knowledge about their trajectory
and potential impact.
127
Trend sensing
In trend sensing, organizations find
ways to stay on top of new developments in
technology, and to identify and understand
the exponential forces and sustaining advances
128
Exponentials
Ecosystems
New relationships indicate shifting
ecosystemsthe communal networks in which
companies partner, compete, collaborate, grow,
and survive. Historically, many organizations
have created ecosystems characterized by
traditional relationshipsfor instance,
partnerships with long-standing vendors,
suppliers, and customers. Or they might
have forged alliances with complementary
organizations to collaborate on sales and
marketing efforts. With these partnerships
come well-established operating protocols
that foster consistency and predictability.
For example, long-standing supplier and
manufacturer ecosystems have been prewired
for efficiency, with little margin for error.
When innovation is linearly paced, these
ecosystems are effective. However, as the
pace of change from disruptive technologies
increases exponentially, traditional notions
of an ecosystem may need to be redefined
and, in many cases, flipped on their head.
The mind-set for new ecosystems should be
agile and adaptable instead of prewired and
static. For companies that are accustomed to
linear change but are planning for exponential
change, the requirements gap may prove to
be significant.
Consider an established automotive
manufacturer with an ecosystem evolved from,
and centered on, traditional manufacturing
techniques to produce consistent products
for a fairly constant set of customers. Then
suddenly, due to exponentials such as AI,
robotics, and sensors, the important parts of
the automobile shift from engine performance
to in-car technologies such as self-driving
controls and augmented reality infotainment
systems. Instead of manufacturing techniques,
Experimentation
In the third dimension, experimentation,
organizations rewire planning, funding, and
delivery models so they can explore new
concepts and ideas. Most large enterprises
have somewhat linear approaches to investing,
predicated on thorough business cases built
around concrete ROI and fixed timelines.
For an exponential organization, a culture
of critical mass experimentation should be
fostered and embedded into the process of
learning and growingfailing fast and cheap,
yet moving forward. Doblin3 has defined 10
distinct types of innovation, many oriented
around organizational structure, business
model, channel, or customer experience.4
Strategies include: Think beyond incremental
impacts. Moreover, dont constrain ideas
to new products and business offerings. In
early stages, forgo exhaustive business cases,
and focus instead on framing scenarios
around impact, feasibility, and risk. Consider
co-investment models for emerging concepts
that allow vendors and partners to more
collectively shoulder the risk.
129
130
Exponentials
design principles
Focus
Maximize
upside
potential.
levers
Leverage
Minimize the
investment
required.
Accelerate
Compress
lead times.
Start
Organize
Amplify
Perform
How do
you start?
How do you
mobilize the
right resources?
How do you
use disruption
to grow?
How do you
measure success
to improve?
focus on edges,
and not the core,
to find a potential
initiative that can
transform the
business.
break the
dependency on
core IT to enhance
the ability to grow
with minimal
investments.
embrace double
standards to track
metrics that are
meaningful
to the core and
the edge.
look externally,
not internally to
avoid internal
obstacles.
mobilize the
passionate
outside the firm
to leverage
external expertise.
measure
progress of the
ecosystem to
benchmark
effectiveness.
learn faster to
move faster to
develop a constant
feedback loop
that accelerates
learning.
reflect more
to move faster
to progress new
thinking through
a faster iteration
cycle.
focus on
trajectory, not
position, to
evaluate the rate
of learning and
improvement.
Source: Deloitte Development LLP, Scaling edges: A pragmatic pathway to broad internal change, 2012.
Scaling edges
Enterprises should learn to scale at the
edge. Even if they are conscious of looming
disruptive forces, linear biases may cause
company executives to underestimate
exponentials pace of change. In the early years,
exponentials have little discernible impact.
Their positive effect will likely be dwarfed by
the impact of incremental changes to existing
forces. Core businesses will likely continue
to require care and feeding, even if they are
under threat of longer-term disruption. On
top of that, executives who attempt large-scale
internal change and transformation may face a
131
132
Exponentials
Artificial intelligence
Although artificial intelligence (AI) may
still conjure up futuristic visions of cyborgs
and androids, it is becoming embedded in
everyday life, and supporting significant
strides in everything from medical systems
to transportation. AI is augmenting human
intelligenceenabling individual and group
decision makers to utilize torrents of data in
evidence-based decisions.
Since the first AI meeting in 1956, the field
has developed along three vectors. The first,
machine learning, emulates the brains ability
to identify patterns. The second, knowledge
engineering, seeks to utilize expert knowledge
in narrow domain and task-specific problem
solving. Reverse engineering of the brain is the
third. Tools such as electroencephalograms
(EEGs) and functional magnetic resonance
imaging are used to identify what parts of the
brain perform specialized tasks. Researchers
then attempt to replicate those tasks in
software and hardware using similar principles
of operation.
Although IBMs Watson has captured
much of the AI attention, it is not the only
recent breakthrough. In 2011, for example,
the DARPA-sponsored Synapse program
developed a neuromorphic, or cognitive
computing, chip that replicates some neural
processes with 262,000 programmable
synapses. In 2014, IBM announced the
True North architecture for neuromorphic
computing and a chip that has 256 million
configurable synapses and uses less power than
a hearing aid. These chips could eventually
outperform todays supercomputers. They also
represent a dramatic increase in the processing
power of a low-power chip and a significant
shift in the architecture that can support AI.
The Deep Learning algorithm is a powerful
general-purpose form of machine learning
that is moving into the mainstream. It uses
a variant of neural networks to perform
133
Robotics
Although mankind has been seeking to
create mechanical devices that can perform
simple and complex tasks for millennia, AI and
exponential improvements in technology are
bringing what were once futuristic visions into
the mainstream of business and society.
Replacing menial tasks was the first
foray, and many organizations introduced
robotics into their assembly line, warehouse,
and cargo bay operations. Since those initial
efforts, the use of robotics has been marching
steadily forward. Amazon, for example, has
largely automated its fulfillment centers,
with robots picking, packing, and shipping
products in more than 18 million square feet
of warehouses.10 Traditional knowledge work is
the next frontier, and real-time gathering and
interpretation of data is likely to be replaced by
machines. Essentially, almost every job will be
affected by robotics at some point.
Robotics replacing existing jobs, however,
is only part of the picture. The International
Federation of Robotics estimates that these
devices will create between 900,000 and 1.5
million new jobs between 2012 and 2016.
Between 2017 and 2020, the use of robotics
will generate as many as 2 million additional
positions.11 A major factor in roboticsdriven job growth is the simple fact that the
combination of humans and machines can
often produce better results than can either on
their own.
An example is the 2009 emergency landing
of a US Airways jet in the Hudson River.
Confronted with complete engine failure, the
pilot had to assess several risky options ranging
from gliding to a nearby airstrip to landing in
the river. AI could fly the plane, and one day it
may be able to land one on water. The decision
to do so, however, may always require an
experienced pilot.
134
Exponentials
Additive manufacturing
The roots of additive manufacturing
(AM) go back to 19th-century experiments
in topography and photosculpture. Centuries
later, the technology, commonly referred to as
3D printing, holds the potential of eliminating
some long-standing trade-offs between
cheap and good by potentially erasing the
cost of complexity. Using AM, whole objects,
including those with moving parts, can be
created layer by layer, significantly lowering
assembly costs. By applying the exact amount
of material required for each layer, AM can
also reduce waste in production processes.
And by virtue of its ability to handle a broad
range of geometric configurations, AM opens
the door to radically new manufacturing
designs. Because of its sweeping potential, AM
is moving from a rapid prototyping tool to
end-product manufacturing: Companies such
as General Electric, Boeing, and Diametal have
used AM to build end-user products, with
positive results such as faster production runs
and more durable products.13
Deloitte research found that many
companies using AM typically travel along
one of four paths based on how much, or
how little, they choose to impact their supply
chains or products.14 The first path, stasis,
is often the entry point as businesses seek
low-risk opportunities to improve current
products and supply chains. For example,
jewelry companies are using AM to create
assembly jigs, and aerospace manufacturers are
printing parts used in chroming and coating
processes.15 Along the second path, enterprises
are turning to AM to transform supply chains.
For example, hearing aid producers are using
the high level of customization available with
AM to reduce the back and forth between the
doctors office and manufacturer.
135
My take
Peter H. Diamandis, MD,
Cofounder and executive chairman, Singularity University;
Chairman and CEO, XPRIZE Foundation;
Author of Bold: How to Go Big, Create Wealth and Impact the World
136
Exponentials
Quantum computing
Computing, as we typically understand it,
reflects our experience of the physical world
and the mathematics behind it. Beneath
that experience, however, is the complex
and counterintuitive mathematical reality
of quantum mechanics. Some 30 years ago,
Paul Benioff, a scientist at Agronne National
Laboratory, posed the idea that if computing
could be based on quantum physics, it could
gain unimaginable power and capability.21
The potential power of quantum computing
stems from its ability to free computing from
sequential binary operations. Even the most
powerful computers rely on combinations
of 0s and 1s and computations performed
discretely. Quantum computing, on the other
hand, encodes information as quantum bits,
or qubits. Qubits mimic the reality of quantum
physics where subatomic particles can exist in
multiple states concurrently. As a result, qubits
can represent not only 0s and 1s but everything
in between at the same time. Thus, instead
of a sequence of individual calculations,
quantum computing can perform countless
computations simultaneously. The potential
is profound. By some estimates, quantum
computers could solve problems that would
take conventional machines millions of years
to figure out.22 In theory, they could perform
some calculations that conventional computers
would take more than the life of the universe
to complete.
Although no one has created a practical
version of a quantum computer, D-Wave,
in Vancouver, Canada, is researching an
alternate model of quantum computing called
quantum annealing.
Google is also investing in the technology.
Google has been experimenting with D-Waves
computers since 2009 and recently opened
its own labs to build chips similar to those of
D-Wave.23 Whether or not these efforts pan
out is an open question. However, the attention
137
Industrial biology
Unlocking the complex logic of the genome
has been a quest of scientists and businesses
for decades. In the past, the high cost of
experimentation has prevented organizations
from pursuing industrial-strength genomics.
The budget to first sequence the human
genome, for example, was almost $3 billion.24
Today, however, digital technologies are
fueling the field of industrial and digital
biology, ushering in a renaissance in the ability
to manipulate DNA, splice genes, and control
genomes. Broad access to hardware, data, and
tools is bringing costs down quickly. With
CRISPRs (clustered regularly interspaced short
palindromic repeats), for instance, researchers
can edit a gene for less than $1,000. On the
not-so-distant horizon, desktop applications
may drop that expense to a few dollars.
Costs have not been the sole barrier to
the advancement of genomics, however. The
publics concerns over genetic engineering
have constrained research frontiers despite
the value of many applications. Already in the
1990s, genomics saved Hawaiian papayas from
near extinction. Similar efforts are underway to
protect US orange trees from a deadly parasite
that could turn a staple of American breakfast,
orange juice, into a luxury item. Companies
such as NatureWorks and Calysta are making
notable progress in bioplastics to create
environmentally sound plastics and fibers.
The tide of public opinion may turn as
digital biology drives significant strides
in human health. Such strides are already
underway. Pharmaceutical companies are
increasingly bringing genetically engineered
drugs to market that target previously almost
intractable conditions. Companies are also
making advances in creating and controlling
microbes. Soap, for instance, could be replaced
with a microbial spray that contains good
microbes to control harmful ones. Microbes
can also be ingested to control weight and
improve moods.
138
Exponentials
Cyber security
Cybercrime has traditionally been a twodimensional problem: individuals hiding
behind computer screens and hacking into
the worlds information systems. Thats about
to change as cybercrime goes 3D. Today, the
steady advance of exponential technologies,
including robotics, artificial intelligence,
additive manufacturing, and industrial biology,
is adding a third dimension to the risks we
face: our physical space.
Consider robotics. Drones, or robotically
controlled aircraft, can deliver packages
to our doors but can also carry firearms
and explosives. Indeed, a few years ago,
the FBI arrested an al Qaeda affiliate who
was planning to use remote controlled
drones to drop explosives on American
government buildings.26
Industrial biology is also on the cusp of
becoming a threat. Advances in this field
are moving rapidly with some research
estimating the market will grow at a CAGR of
32.6 percent from 2013 to 2019.27 Biology is
rapidly becoming an information technology
and as a result, genetic engineering will likely
soon become a desktop application. When it
does, bad actors may be able to create their
own bio-viruses such as weaponized flu
strainscomputer-designed viruses that could
permeate our physical world.
Perhaps, the more immediate threat on the
horizon is the growth of the Internet of Things.
As we transition from Internet Protocol
version 4 to version 6,28 the size of our global
information grid is expected to explode in size.
If todays Internet is the metaphorical size of a
golf ball, tomorrows will be the size of the sun.
That means that nearly every car, computer,
appliance, toy, thermostat, and piece of office
equipment could be connected and online
and potentially vulnerable to hacking from
anywhere on the planet.
Recently, for example, researchers and
hackers have claimed that they can access
a planes satellite communications system
139
Authors
Bill Briggs, director, US chief technology officer, Deloitte Consulting LLP
140
Exponentials
Endnotes
1. Peter F. Drucker, The discipline of innovation, Harvard Business Review, August 2002,
https://hbr.org/2002/08/the-discipline-ofinnovation, accessed January 15, 2015.
2. Rachael King, Lowes uses science fiction
to innovate, CIO Journal by The Wall Street
Journal, July 20, 2014, http://blogs.wsj.com/
cio/2014/07/20/lowes-uses-science-fictionto-innovate/, accessed January 15, 2015.
3. Editors note: In 2013, Deloitte Consulting LLP acquired substantially all of the
business of Monitor, including Doblin.
4. Larry Keeley, Ten Types of Innovation:
The Discipline of Building Breakthroughs (Wiley, April 15, 2013).
5. Reed Albergotti, Oculus and Facebook
close virtual-reality deal, Wall Street Journal
Digits, July 21, 2014, http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/07/21/oculus-facebook-close-virtualreality-deal/, accessed January 14, 2015; Sydney
Ember, Airbnbs huge valuation, New York
Times Dealbook, April 14, 2014, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/04/21/morning-agenda-airbnbs-10-billion-valuation/?_php=true&_
type=blogs&_r=1, accessed January 14, 2015;
Adrian Covert, Facebook buys WhatsApp for
$19 billion, CNN Money, February 19, 2014,
http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/19/technology/
social/facebook-whatsapp/index.html?iid=EL,
accessed January 14, 2015; Douglas MacMillan, Dropbox raises about $250 million at
$10 billion valuation, Wall Street Journal,
January 17, 2015, http://online.wsj.com/news/
articles/SB1000142405270230346500457932
7001976757542, accessed January 14, 2015.
6. Quirky, Forums, https://www.quirky.com/
forums/topic/41864, accessed January 14, 2015.
7. Salim Ismail, Exponential Organizations: Why
New Organizations Are Ten Times Better, Faster,
and Cheaper Than Yours (and What to Do
About It) (Diversion Books, October 18, 2014).
8. Deloitte Development LLP, Scaling edges: A
pragmatic pathway to broad internal change,
2012, http://www2.deloitte.com/us/
en/pages/center-for-the-edge/articles/
scaling-edges-methodology-to-creategrowth.html, accessed January 15, 2015.
9. Ibid.
10. Singularity Hub, An inside look into The Amazon.com warehouses (video), April 28, 2011,
blog, http://singularityhub.com/2011/04/28/
an-inside-look-into-the-amazon-comwarehouses-video/, accessed January 14, 2015.
11. Peter Gorle and Andrew Clive, Positive
impact of industrial robots on employment,
International Federation of Robotics and
Metra Martech Ltd., February 2013.
12. Drew Greenblatt, 6 ways robots create jobs,
Inc., January 22, 3013, http://www.inc.com/
drew-greenblatt/6-ways-robots-create-jobs.
html?utm_campaign=Wire%20Forms&utm_
content=7106573&utm_medium=social&utm_
source=linkedin, accessed January 15, 2015.
13. Deloitte University Press. 3D opportunity for
end-use products, October 16, 2014, http://
dupress.com/articles/3d-printing-end-useproducts/, accessed January 15, 2015.
14. Ibid.
15. Mark Cotteleer and Jim Joyce, 3D opportunity: Additive manufacturing paths
to performance, innovation, and growth,
Deloitte Review issue 14, January 17, 2014,
http://dupress.com/articles/dr14-3dopportunity/, accessed January 15, 2015.
16. Ibid; 3Dsystems, 3D printing is heartbeat
of Symmons Industries Design Studio Live
virtual design studio, http://www.3dsystems.
com/learning-center/case-studies/3d-printingheartbeat-symmons-industries-design-studiolive-virtual, accessed January 15, 2015.
17. EOS, EOS and Airbus group innovations team
on aerospace sustainability study for industrial
3D printing, press release, February 5, 2014,
http://www.eos.info/eos_airbusgroupinnovationteam_aerospace_sustainability_study,
accessed January 15, 2015; Mark Cotteleer,
3D opportunity for production: Additive
manufacturing makes its (business) case,
Deloitte Review issue 15, July 28, 2014, http://
dupress.com/articles/additive-manufacturingbusiness-case/, accessed January 15, 2015.
18. David Churchill, The weighting game, Business Travel World, 2008, pp. 2122.; and Mark
Cotteleer, 3D opportunity for production..
141
142
26. Marc Goodman, Criminals and terrorists can fly drones too, Time, January 31,
2013, http://ideas.time.com/2013/01/31/
criminals-and-terrorists-can-fly-dronestoo/, accessed January 15, 2015.
27. PRNewswire, Global synthetic biology market expected to reach USD13.4
billion in 2019: Transparency Market
Research, press release, April 8, 2014, http://
www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/
global-synthetic-biology-market-expectedto-reach-usd134-billion-in-2019-transparency-market-research-254364051.
html, accessed January 15, 2015.
28. Deloitte Consulting LLP, Tech Trends 2013:
Elements of postdigital, 2013, chapter 5.
29. Adam Clark Estes, Researcher can hack airplanes through in-flight entertainment systems,
August 4, 2014, http://gizmodo.com/researcher-hacks-airplanes-through-in-flight-entertainm-1615780083, accessed January 15, 2015.
30. Siobhan Gorman, China hackers hit U.S.
chamber, Wall Street Journal, December
21, 2011, http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB
100014240529702040584045771105415
68535300, accessed January 19, 2015.
31. Neil Webb, Home, hacked home, Economist,
July 12, 2014, http://www.economist.com/
news/special-report/21606420-perilsconnected-devices-home-hacked-home,
accessed January 19, 2015.
32. Rachel Glickhouse, Technology update: A
crowdsourcing guide to Latin America, Americas Society/Council of the Americas, January
12, 2012, http://www.as-coa.org/articles/
technology-update-crowdsourcing-guidelatin-america, accessed January 15, 2015.
Exponentials
143
Authors
Bill Briggs
Chief technology officer
Director, Deloitte Consulting LLP
wbriggs@deloitte.com
API economy
Ambient computing
Dimensional marketing
Software-defined everything
Core renaissance
Amplified intelligence
Cyber implications
Kieran Norton, principal, Deloitte & Touche LLP
Irfan Saif, principal, Deloitte & Touche LLP
kinorton@deloitte.com isaif@deloitte.com
Exponentials
145
Contributors
Anthony Abbattista, Elizabeth Baggett, Alex Batsuk, Amy Bergstrom, Troy Bishop, Mike Brown,
Kevin Chan, Rajeswari Chandrasekaran, Chris Damato, Larry Danielson, Dan DeArmas, Brooke
Dunnigan, Kelly Ganis, Julie Granof, John Henry, Dan Housman, Lisa Iliff, Anand Jha, Kumar
Kolin, Steven Lemelin, Derek Lindberg, Andrew Luedke, Erin Lynch, Karen Mazer, David Moore,
Diane Murray, Jeoung Oh, James Okane, Turner Roach, Beth Ruck, Christina Rye, Ed See, Srivats
Srinivasan, Pavan Srivastava, Christopher Stevenson, David Strich, Rupinder Sura-Collins, Jim
Thomson, Barb Venneman, Ashok Venugopalan, Unmesh Wankhede, Jon Warshawsky, Vikram
Watave, Randy Whitney, Shelby Williams
Research
Leads: Thomas Carroll, Chris Chang, Brian Cusick, Justin Franks, Ashish Kumar, Karthik Kumar,
Nicole Leung, Paridhi Nadarajan
Team members: Nidhi Arora, Rachel Belzer, Joshua Block, Simeon Bochev, Mark Brindisi, Rachel
Bruns, Valerie Butler, Alex Carlon, Zhijun Chen, Chris Cochet, Adam Corn, Kevin Craig, Michael
Davis, Carolyn Day, Nermin El Taher, Amy Enrione, Zachary Epstein, Inez Foong, Melanie Gin,
Matthew Hannon, Calvin Hawkes, Nathan Holst, Evanny Huang, Shaleen Jain, Abhishek Jain,
Karima Jivani, Ryan Kamauff, Solomon Kassa, Mohin Khushani, Ryo Kondo, Varun Kumar, Alyssa
Long, Nathan Mah, Ryan Malone, Neha Manoj, Simy Matharu, Lea Ann Mawler, David Melnick,
John Menze, Alice Ndikumana, Kashaka Nedd, Carrie Nelson, Akshai Prakash, Lee Reed, Tammara
Ross, Jaclyn Saito, Jinal Shah, Shaleen Shankar, James Shen, Hugh Shepherd, William Shepherdson,
Andrea Shome, Sam Soneja, Gayathri Sreekanth, Kartik Verma, Jonathan Wan, Jordan Weyenberg,
Sridhar Yegnasubramanian, Jenny Zheng, Jennie Zhou
146
Special thanks
Mariahna Moore for being the heart, soul, and backbone of our team. Tech Trends takes a village,
but it simply would not happen without your leadership, passion, and drive. Cyndi Switzer for
impossibly exceeding exceptionally high expectationscontinuing to be an indispensable member of our team. Dana Kublin for her creative spark, infographic wizardry, and willingness to dive
in wherever needed. And Maria Gutierrez for her passion and tireless efforts to amplify the Tech
Trends message.
Holly Price, Henry Li, Amy Booth, Mary Thornhill, and Doug McWhirter for the fantastic
impact made in your first year Tech Trendingfrom the phenomenal effort coordinating our
unparalleled volunteer army to your invaluable contributions to researching, writing, marketing,
and refining the content.
Matt Lennert, Junko Kaji, Kevin Weier, and the tremendous DU Press team. Your professionalism,
collaborative spirit, and vision helped us take the report to new heights.
Finally, thanks to Stuart Fano for his years of contribution to Tech Trends. Your brilliance lives on
in this years app; we cant wait to have you back in the trenches for 2016.
147
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