2010 Ontario Municipal Candidates' Experiences

2010 Ontario Municipal
Candidates Experiences
From CERIS Working Paper Visible Minority
Electability in Urban Local Government in Ontario
Friday, October 25, 2013
Presented by: Matt Smith, Stratcom and

University of Toronto (MA)
Co-Author: Dr. Alan Walks, University of Toronto
Focus of CERIS Research Project

Growing body of literature into visible minority electability in
Canada
Establishes visible minority under-representation, especially at
municipal level
Gaps in the research:
Causes of under-representation
Relationship to neighbourhood composition
Experience of visible minority candidates
Research Questions & Methods

1. Are visible minorities under-represented in municipal political
offices in Ontario?
Method 1: Index of Representation, 2006 and 2010 elections
2. Is there a relationship between neighbourhood ethnic

composition and local visible minority electability?
Method 2: Spatial Analysis Minority Elected/Residents
3. Experiences and opinions of visible and non-visible minority

candidates in Ontario municipal elections?
Method 3: Survey of 2010 election candidates
Scope of Research Project

Visible minority electability in six Ontario municipalities
1. Markham (65% visible minority, 2006)
2. Brampton (55% visible minority, 2006)
3. Mississauga (49% visible minority, 2006)
4. Toronto (47% visible minority, 2006)
5. Richmond Hill (46% visible minority, 2006)
6. Ottawa (20% visible minority, 2006)
Method 3: Survey of 2010 candidates

Survey of 2010 Mayoral and Council candidates in study cities
Questions on visible minority electability, election results,
campaign tactics, ways to address under-representation
Candidates with mailing address
403
Candidates with email address
360
Invitations to participate in survey

returned to sender
Letter
29
Email
204
Candidates declined to participate in survey
Candidates began online survey
88
Total valid responses
78
Findings: Survey of Candidates

Do the 2010 election results reflect ethnic makeup in city?
Total
VM Respondents
NVM Respondents
Yes
17%
26%
11%
No
41%
58%
40%
Somewhat
35%
16%
40%
Unsure
8%
0%
9%
Are visible minorities over, under or proportionally

represented by municipal elected officials?
Total
VM Respondents
NVM Respondents
Over-represented
3%
0%
0%
Under -represented
73%
95%
70%
Proportionally represented
18%
5%
21%
Unsure
6%
0%
9%

Harder for visible minority candidates to get elected?
Total
VM Respondents
NVM Respondents
Yes
44%
80%
33%
No
27%
0%
37%
Somewhat
21%
20%
22%
Unsure
8%
0%
9%
Does your ethnicity negatively affected electability?

Total
VM Respondents
NVM Respondents
Negative
20%
53%
9%
Positive
21%
16%
21%
Neutral
59%
32%
70%

Most important factors determining election?
Elected Respondents
Length of incumbency/name recognition
21%
Good job previous term/hard working
21%
Strongest campaign/ lots of outreach to voters
16%
Community work
11%
Non Elected Respondents
Lack of financial resources
38%
Up against incumbent
20%
Up against well financed/ supported candidate
13%
Lack of media attention
10%

Part of campaign strategy to identify geographical concentrations of
voters who historically voted with high degree of uniformity?
No, this was not a part of my campaign strategy
35%
Yes, I did somewhat engage in this
45%
Yes, I strongly engaged in this
23%
Not sure
0%
Perceived a relationship between ethnic clustering and voting

behaviour?
Yes - 89%
Tailored campaign materials to address ethnic clustering?
Yes - 62%
While campaigning did you hear support for electoral reform?
Yes - 63%

Do you believe changes to municipal electoral system could
positively affect electability of visible minorities?
Yes
35%
No
37%
Somewhat
18%
Unsure
10%
Do you support electoral reform in principle?

Yes
24%
Interested in learning more
41%
No
27%
I do not have an opinion on this
7%

Types of electoral reform most supported?
Proportional representation/not first past post
Term limits
Ranked ballot
Permanent resident voting rights
Lower spending limits
Recommendations
Reduce power of incumbency
Public financing
Tax credits for donations
Campaign training and mentorship
Party system
Enhanced civic and public education
Improved media coverage of non-incumbents
Allow permanent residents municipal voting rights
Establish electoral reform commission

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2010 Ontario Municipal

Presented by: Matt Smith, Stratcom and

Focus of CERIS Research Project

Research Questions & Methods

2. Is there a relationship between neighbourhood ethnic

3. Experiences and opinions of visible and non-visible minority

Scope of Research Project

Method 3: Survey of 2010 candidates

Candidates with email address

Invitations to participate in survey

Candidates declined to participate in survey

Candidates began online survey

Total valid responses

Findings: Survey of Candidates

Are visible minorities over, under or proportionally

Findings: Survey of Candidates

Does your ethnicity negatively affected electability?

Findings: Survey of Candidates

Length of incumbency/name recognition

Good job previous term/hard working

Strongest campaign/ lots of outreach to voters

Non Elected Respondents

Lack of financial resources

Up against well financed/ supported candidate

Lack of media attention

Findings: Survey of Candidates

Yes, I did somewhat engage in this

Yes, I strongly engaged in this

Perceived a relationship between ethnic clustering and voting

Findings: Survey of Candidates

Do you support electoral reform in principle?

Interested in learning more

I do not have an opinion on this

Findings: Survey of Candidates

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