CHAPTER 5:

DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Discrete A. Discrete Uniform

C. Poisson Distribution

1 f (x , k ) = k
n b( x, n, p ) = p x q n x x

p (x, ) =

xe
x!

B. Binomial Distribution

Learning Objectives
A. Discrete Uniform Distribution 1) To calculate the probability of a discrete uniform distribution by using the formula 2) To find the mean and variance of a discrete uniform distribution B. Binomial Distribution 1) To calculate the probability by using the binomial formula 2) To calculate the probability by using the statistical table 3) To find the mean and variance of a binomial distribution C. Poisson Distribution 1) To calculate the probability by using the Poisson Formula 2) To calculate the probability by using the statistical table 3) To find the mean and variance of Poisson distribution

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
The Bernoulli Process
The binomial distribution is applied to find the probability that an outcomes will occur x times in n times in n performances of an experiment which satisfies the Bernoulli Process.

Four Conditions of Bernoulli Process

1) The experiment consists of n repeated trials. 2) Each trial results in two outcomes that may be classified as a success (p) or a failure (q). 3) The probability of success (p) and failure (q) remains constant from trial to trial. 4) The repeated trials are independent.

Example
Consider the experiment consisting of 10 tosses of a coin. Determine whether or not it is a binomial experiment. Solution: There are a total of 10 trials (tosses), and they are all identical. All 10 tosses are performed under identical condition. Each trial (toss) has only two possible outcomes: a head (success) and a tail (failure). and remain the same for each toss. The sum of these two probabilities is 1.0. The trials (tosses) are independent. The outcome of one trial does not affect the outcome of another trial.
P ( Head

)=

1 2

P (Tail

)=

1 2

Hence, it is a Binomial experiment

Example
The number of people with blood type O-negative based upon a simple random sample of size 10 is recorded. According to the Information Please Almanac, 6% of the human population is blood type O-negative. Determine whether or not it is a binomial experiment. Answer: This is a binomial experiment
Note: Four Conditions of Bernoulli Process 1) The experiment consists of n repeated trials. 2) Each trial results in two outcomes that may be classified as a success (p) or a

failure (q).
3) The probability of success (p) and failure (q) remains constant from trial to trial. 4) The repeated trials are independent.

Example
A probability experiment in which three balls are drawn from a basket contains seven red balls and five blue balls without replacement and the number of red balls is recorded. Determine whether or not it is a binomial experiment. Answer: No, its not a binomial experiment
Note: Four Conditions of Bernoulli Process 1) The experiment consists of n repeated trials. 2) Each trial results in two outcomes that may be classified as a success (p) or a

failure (q).
3) The probability of success (p) and failure (q) remains constant from trial to trial. 4) The repeated trials are independent.

Binomial Probability Distribution

For a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly x successes in n trials is given by the binomial formula

n x P ( x ) = B (n , p ) = p q x
where n = total number of trials p = probability of success q = 1p = probability of failure x = number of successes in n trials nx = number of failures in n trials

nx

Binomial Probability Distribution

There are THREE methods in finding the probability of binomial distribution: 1) Tree diagram : do not use this method if n is large 2) Formula : easy to use for exactly question where n = total number of trials p = probability of success q = 1p = probability of failure x = number of successes in n trials nx = number of failures in n trials 3) Binomial table : Using the Table of Binomial Distribution Function

(NCST pg. 4 23)

Table 1: The table list the probability of x for n = 2 to n = 20 and for selected values of p (from 0.01 to 0.50)

Example
Five percent of all calculators manufactured by a large electronics company are defective. A quality control inspector randomly selects three calculators from the production line. What is the probability that exactly one of these calculators is defective? Solution: 1st Method: Tree Diagram

Example
Five percent of all calculators manufactured by a large electronics company are defective. A quality control inspector randomly selects three calculators from the production line. What is the probability that exactly one of these calculators is defective? Solution: 2nd Method: Binomial formula

P ( x ) = B (n , p

)=

n x p q x

nx

Example
Five percent of all calculators manufactured by a large electronics company are defective. A quality control inspector randomly selects three calculators from the production line. What is the probability that exactly one of these calculators is defective? Solution: 3rd Method: Using Table

Important Keywords
Quantifiers Inequality Sign

x is at least 5 x is at most 5 x is fewer than 5 x is between 5 and 7 x is from 5 to 7 x is no more than 5 x is no less than 5 x is less than 5 x is greater/more than 5

x5 x5 x<5
5<x<7 5x7

x5 x5 x<5 x>5

Key formulas
If

p 0.50

, refer to

1) P ( X = r ) = B (r ) B (r 1 ) 2) P ( X r ) = 1 B (r 1 ) 3) P

(probability of success)

(X

> r

)=

1 B

(r )

4) P (a X b ) = B (b ) B (a 1 ) 5)

P ( X r ) = B (r )

6) P ( X < r ) = B ( r 1 )

Example
Given p = 0.26, n = 18

P (X = 5 ) =
P (X 9 ) =
P (X > 9

)=

P (3 X 8 ) =

P ( X 4) =
P ( X < 4) =

Try this
Given p = 0.45, n = 12

P (X = 3) =
P (X 6 ) =
P (X > 6

)=

P (3 X 7 ) = P (3 < X < 7 ) =

P ( X 3) =
P ( X < 3) =

Key formulas
If

p > 0.50

, refer to

q (probability of failure)
B(n r ) B(n r 1)

1) P( X = r ) = P(Y = n r ) = 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7)

P ( X r ) = P (Y n r ) = B (n r )

P ( X r ) = P (Y n r ) = 1 B (n r 1)

P(a X b) = P(n b Y n a) = B(n a) B(n b 1)

P ( X > r ) = P (Y < n r ) = B ( n r 1)

P( X < r ) = P(Y > n r ) = 1 B(n r )

P(a < X < b) = P(n b < Y < n a) = B(n a 1) B(n b)

Example
If p = 0.67 and n = 15

P ( X = 8) =

P ( X 5) =

P ( X > 5) =
P (X 5) =

P(X < 5) =

P(4 X 12 ) =

P(4 < X < 12) =

Try this
If p = 0.54 and n = 9

P( X = 4) =

P(X 4) =

P ( X > 4) =
P(X 4) =

P(X < 4) =

P(2 X 6) =

P(2 < X < 6) =

Example
Compute P(x) for the binomial distribution B (n, p) where: 1 a) n = 5, p = , x = 2
4

b) n = 10, p = c) n = 8,
p=

1 2 2 3

,x=7 ,x=5

Example
1 . He fires 6 times. Find the The probability that John hits the target is 4 probability that he hits the target: a) exactly 2 times b) more than 4 times c) at least once

Example
One prominent physician claims that 70% of those with lung cancers are chain smokers. If his assertion is correct. Find the probability that: a) of 10 such patients recently admitted to a hospital, fewer than half are chain smokers. b) of 20 such patients recently admitted to a hospital, fewer than half are chain smokers.

Example
Studies have shown that one in every five apartment dwellers moves within a given year. Suppose that 4 dwellers are interviewed. What is the probability that: a) Exactly two have moved within past year. b) At least two have moved within past year. c) All four have moved within past year.

Example
A carrier company guarantees a refund of all charges if a package it is delivering does not arrive at its destination by the specified time. It is known from the past data that despite all efforts, 2% of the packages mailed through this company do not arrive at their destinations within the specified time. Suppose a corporation mails 10 packages through this company on a certain day. Find the probability that a) Exactly one of these 10 packages will not arrive at its destination within the specified time. b) At most one of these 10 packages will not arrive at its destination within the specified time.

Example
Of the volunteers donating blood in a clinic, 80% have the Rhesus factor present in their blood. a) If five of the volunteers are randomly selected, what is the probability that at least one does not have the Rhesus factor? b) If five of the volunteers are randomly selected, what is the probability that at most four have the Rhesus factor?

Mean and Standard Deviation of Binomial Distribution

The Mean and Standard deviation of a Binomial distribution are Mean,

= np

and

Standard deviation,

= npq

Example: According to a study, 25% of CEO said that their favorite luxury car is Mercedes. Assume that this result holds true for the current population of all Malaysia CEOs. A sample of 40 CEOs is selected. Let x denotes the number of CEOs in this sample who hold this view. Find the mean and standard deviation of the probability distribution of x. Answer: Mean = 10 Standard deviation = 2.739

Example
One prominent physician claims that 70% of those with lung cancers are chain smokers. If his assertion is correct. Find the expected value and standard deviation of the probability distribution of x of which 15 such patients recently admitted to a hospital are chain smokers. Note:

= np
= npq

Answer: Mean = 10.5 Standard deviation = 1.775

POISSON DISTRIBUTION
Three Conditions of a Poisson Probability Distribution
1) x is a discrete random variable. 2) The occurrences are random (do not follow any pattern). 3) The occurrences are independent (consider with respect to an interval or region). Example of Poisson condition 1) The number of accidents that occur on a given highway during a oneweek period 2) The number of customers entering a grocery store during a one hour interval 3) The number of television sets sold at a department store during a given week.

POISSON DISTRIBUTION
The probability distribution of the Poisson random variable X, representing the number of outcomes occurring in a given time interval or specified region is For a Poisson probability distribution, the probability of x occurrences in an interval is

( t ) x e t P (x ) = P (x , t ) = x!
where

= average/mean number of occurrences x = actual number of occurrences

e 2.71828

Example
The mean number of bacteria per cm3 of liquid is known to be 3. Assuming that the number of bacteria follows a Poisson distribution, find the probability that there will be a) no bacteria in 1 cm3 of liquid b) 4 bacteria in 1ml of liquid c) less than two bacteria in 2cm3 of liquid 1 d) in ml of liquid there will be more than 2 bacteria
2

Using the Table of Poisson Probabilities

The probabilities for a Poisson distribution can also be read from Table 2, from page 24 to 32. That table lists the probabilities of x for = 0.00 to = 20 and less than or equal to r (r = 1 to n).
P( X r ) = e t t = 0 t!
r

Key formulas: 1. P( X = r ) = Poi(r ) Poi(r 1) 2. P( X r ) = 1 Poi(r 1) 3. P ( X > r ) = 1 Poi(r ) 4. P(a X b ) = Poi(b ) Poi(a 1)

Example
By using a table, if X ~ Poi (1.2), find: a) P(X = 0) b) P(X = 3)

c) P(X < 4) d) P(2 < X 3) e) P(X 5)

Example
On average, two new accounts are opened per day at a bank. Using the table of Poisson distribution function, find the probability that on a given day, the number of new accounts opened at this bank will be a) exactly 6 b) at most 3 c) at least 7

Example
A washing machine in a Laundromat breaks down an average of three times per month. Find the probability that during the next month this machine will have a) exactly two breakdown b) at most one breakdown

Mean and Standard deviation

The Mean and Standard deviation of a Poisson distribution are Mean, = t and Standard deviation, = t Example: The number of absentees per week in a probability class follows a Poisson distribution with standard deviation 2. Find the probability that a) No absentees in the third week. b) More than four absentees in first three weeks. c) Less than 3 absentees in a particular week. d)

Example
The number of customers arriving per hour at a certain automobile service facility is assumed to follow a Poisson distribution with mean, = 7 a) What is the mean number of arrivals during a 2-hour period? b) Compute the probability that more than 10 customers will arrive in a 2 hour period.

Example
On average a certain intersection results in 3 traffic accidents per month. What is the probability that for any given month at this intersection a) exactly five accidents will occur. b) less than three accidents will occur. c) at least two accidents will occur.

Example
In the inspection of tin plate produced by a continuous electrolytic process, 0.2 imperfections are spotted on the average per minute. Find the probability of spotting: a) one imperfection in three minutes. b) at least two imperfections in five minutes. c) at most one imperfection in 15 minutes.