Binomial Distribution

Binomial Experiment

1. The binomial experiment consists of a fixed number of

trials: n
2. Each trial has two possible outcomes: success and failure.
3. The probability of success is p. The probability of failure is
1 – p.
4. The trials are independent.

Binomial random variable is the number of successes in n

trials.
Each trial is a Bernoulli process if properties 2 – 4 are satisfied.
 Binomial experiment?
• Flip a coin 10 times.
• Draw 5 cards out of a shuffled deck.
• A political survey asks 1500 voters whom they intend to vote.
 Binomial Probability Distribution
Example: What is the probability of getting 2 heads when a
fair coin is flipped 4 times?
 Binomial Probability Distribution
Example: What is the probability of getting 2 heads when a
fair coin is flipped 4 times?

Solution: HHTT, HTHT, HTTH, THHT, THTH, TTHH

4
So there are 6 ways to get 2 heads in 4 flips. ( C2 6 )
Each sequence has probability (0.5)2(0.5)2.
P(2 heads in 4 flips) = 6(0.5)2(0.5)2 = .375
 Binomial Probability Distribution
x = number of successes in binomial experiment with n trials.
x takes values 0, 1, 2, … , n, therefore, it is discrete.
n – x = number of failures.

Probability that there are x successes and n – x failures:

p x (1  p ) n  x
Number of ways to get x successes and n – x failures:
n n!
C 
x
x!(n  x)!
where n!=n(n – 1)(n – 2) · · · (2)(1), e.g. 0!=1, 3!=3(2)(1)=6.
 Binomial Probability Distribution
The probability of x successes in a binomial experiment with
n trials and probability of success p is

n!
P( x)  p x (1  p ) n  x for x 0, 1, ..., n
x!(n  x)!
Example: A quiz consists of 10 multiple-choice questions.
Each question has 5 possible answers, only one of which is
correct. Pat plans to guess the answer to each question. Find
the probability that Pat gets
a. one answer correct.
b. all 10 answers correct.

10!
P (1)  (.2)1 (1  .2)10 1 10(.2)(.8) 9 .2684
1!(10  1)!

10!
P (10)  (.2)10 (1  .2)10 10 1(.2)10 (1) .0000001
10!(10  10)!
 Cumulative Probability
P(X ≤ x) = P(0) + P(1) +…+ P(x)

Example: Find the probability that Pat fails the quiz. A mark is
considered a failure if it is less than 50%.
Solution: A mark of less than 5 is a failure.
P(X ≤ 4) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4)
= .1074 + .2684 + .3020 + .2013 + .0881
= .9672
 Using the cumulative probability
P(X ≥ x) = 1 – P(X ≤ x – 1)

Example: Find the probability that Pat passes the quiz.

Solution: A mark of 5 or greater is a pass.
P(X ≥ 5) = 1 – P(X ≤ 4)
= 1 – .9672
= .0328
 Using the cumulative probability
P(X = x) = P(X ≤ x) – P(X ≤ x – 1)

Example: Find the probability that Pat gets one answer correct.
Solution:
P(1) = P(X ≤ 1) – P(X ≤ 0)
= .3758 – .1074
= .2684
 Using the cumulative probability
P(a ≤ X ≤ b) = P(X ≤ b) – P(X ≤ a – 1)

Example: Find the probability that Pat gets 5 or 6 answers

correct.
Solution:
P(5 ≤ X ≤ 6) = P(X ≤ 6) – P(X ≤ 4)
= .9991 – .9672
= .0319
(or P(5 ≤ X ≤ 6) = P(5) + P(6) = .0264 + .0055 = .0319)
 Exercises
• 1. Use binomial formula to find the following probabilities:
• a. P(X = 3) when n = 5 and p = 0.5
• b. P(X = 1) when n = 4 and p= 0.7
• c. P(X = 5) when n = 10 and p = 0.3
• d. P(X = 5) when n = 7 and p = 0.5
• e. P(X = 4) when n = 10 and p = 0.6
• f. P(X < 3) when n = 5 and p= 0.15
• 2. It is known that 20% of households have a dog.
If 10 houses are chosen at random, what is the probability that:
• a. Three will have a dog
• b. No more than three will have a dog.
• 3. Light bulbs are tested for their life-span. It is found that 4% of the light bulbs are rejected. A random
sample of 15 bulbs is taken from stock and tested. The random variable X is the number of bulbs that a
rejected.
• Use a formula to find the probability that 2 light bulbs in the sample are rejected.
• 4. A manufacturer knows that an average of 1 out of 10 of his products are faulty.
• What is the probability that a random sample of 5 articles will contain:
• a. No faulty products
b. Exactly 1 faulty products
c. At least 2 faulty products
d. No more than 3 faulty products
Mean and Variance of a Binomial Distribution
μ = np
σ2 = np(1 – p)
σ = √ np(1 – p)

Example: If a class is full of students like Pat, what is the

mean mark? What is the standard deviation?
Solution:
μ = np = 10(0.2) = 2
σ = √ np(1 – p) = √ 10(.2)(1 – .2) = 1.26
Poisson Distribution
 The Poisson Distribution
Overview
• When there is a large number of
trials, but a small probability of
success, binomial calculation
becomes impractical
– Example: Number of deaths
from horse kicks in the Army in
different years
Simeon D. Poisson (1781-
• The mean number of successes 1840)
from n trials is µ = np
– Example: 64 deaths in 20
years from thousands of
soldiers
 Poisson Experiment
1. The number of successes that occur in any interval is
independent of the number of successes that occur in any other
intervals.
2. The probability of a success in an interval is the same for all
equal-size intervals.
3. The probability of a success in an interval is proportional to the
size of the interval.
4. The probability of more than one success in an interval
approaches 0 as the interval becomes smaller.
 Poisson Random Variable
The Poisson random variable is the number of successes that
occur in a period of time or an interval of space in a Poisson
experiment.
As a general rule, a Poisson random variable is the number of
relatively rare event that occurs randomly and independently.

Example: (not Poisson random variables)

• The number of hits on an active website
• The number of people arriving at a restaurant
 Poisson Random Variable
Example: (Poisson Random Variables)
• The number of cars arriving at a service station in 1 hour
• The number of flaws in a bolt of cloth
• The number of accidents in 1 day on a particular stretch of
highway
 Poisson Probability Distribution
The probability that a Poisson random variable assumes a
value of x is
e   x
P( x)  for x 0, 1, 2, ...
x!
where λ is the mean number of successes in the interval or


region and e is the base of the natural logarithm (approx.

2.71828).
The variance of the Poisson r.v.
σ2 =λ
Example: The number of arrivals at a car wash is Poisson
distributed with a mean of 8 per hour. What is the probability
that
a. no car will arrive in the next hour?
b. at most 8 cars will arrive in the next hour?
Solution: Use μ = 8.
a. P(0) = e-880/0! = .0003
b. P(X ≤ 8) = P(0) + P(1) + … + P(8)
Using cumulative probability in MiniTab gives
P(X ≤ 8) = .5925
Example: The number of arrivals at a car wash is Poisson
distributed with a mean of 8 per hour. What is the probability
that
a. no car will arrive in the next 2 hours?
b. at most 10 cars will arrive in the next 2 hours?
c. at least 15 cars will arrive in the next 2 hours?
Solution: The mean number of car arrivals in 2 hour period
is 16. Thus, use μ = 16.
a. P(0) = e-16160/0! = 0.0000001
b. P(X ≤ 10) = 0.0774
c. P(X ≥ 15) = 1 – P(X ≤ 14) = 1 – .3675 = .6325
Example: The number of arrivals at a car wash is Poisson
distributed with a mean of 8 per hour. What is the probability
that
a. exactly 15 cars will arrive in the next 2 hours?
b. between 10 to 20 cars will arrive in the next 2
hours?
Solution: μ = 16.
a. P(15) = P(X ≤ 15) – P(X ≤ 14)
= .4667 – .3675 = .0992
b. P(10 ≤ X ≤ 20) = P(X ≤ 20) – P(X ≤ 9)
= .8682 – .0433 = .8249

Recall P(a ≤ X ≤ b) = P(X ≤ b) – P(X ≤ a – 1)

 Exercises
• 1. Use the Poisson probability formula to find the following probabilities for the distribution X:
• a. P(X = 2) when λ = 3
• b. P(X = 1) when λ = 0.5
• c. P(X = 0) when λ = 1.2
• 2. A stunt person injures himself an average of three times a year. Use the Poisson probability
formula to calculate the probability that he will be injured:
• a. 4 times a year
• b. Less than twice this year.
• c. More than three times this year.
• d. Once in the six months.
• 3. Occasionally, a machine producing steel tools needs to be reset. The random variable Y is the
number of resettings in a month and is modelled by a Poisson distribution. The mean number of
resettings needed per month has been found to be 6. Find the probability that:
• a. 7 resettings per month are needed.
• b. Fewer than 3 resettings per month are needed.
• c. More than 4 resettings per month are needed.
• 4. The probability that an individual suffers a bad reaction to a injection is
0.002. If 2000 people are injected use the Poisson distribution to find the
probability that:
• a. Exactly 2 people have a bad reaction.
• b. More than 3 people have a bad reaction.
• 5. A book containing 300 pages has 480 typing errors.
• Find the probability that a page selected at random contains:
• (i) No errors
(ii) Exactly 3 errors
(iii) More than two errors
• 6. The number of calls to the help desk of a company has a Poisson
distribution with 36 calls for a 24 hour period. If C = the random variable for
the number of calls per hour, find:
• The probability that the help desk will receive only one call in the first hour.