ND Sen Poll

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North Dakota Polling Report
10/19/12-10/21/12
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Analysis

Pharos Research Group did a live call poll of 807 likely voters in North Dakota
from October 19, 2012 through October 21, 2012. The breakdown was 402 men,
405 women, representing a 49.9%/50.1% split. There were 219 self-identified
Democrats, 336 self-identified Republicans and 252 Independents representing a
27/42/31 split.

The numbers read like this: in the general election for President, 39.28% of
respondents indicated an intention to vote for President Barack Obama, while
49.44 indicated a preIerence Ior Republican nominee Willard 'Mitt Romney.
In the United States Senate race, 49.19% prefer the Democratic, former Attorney
General Heidi Heitkamp, while 47.96% chose Republican nominee, Congressman
Rick Berg. In the open House race, Democrat Pam Gulleson trails Public Service
Commissioner Kevin Cramer, 42%-54%, while in the race for Governor, Jack
Dalrymple, the incumbent, who ascended to office in January 2011 when popular
former Governor John Hoeven was sworn in as a US Senator, is leading
Democratic State Senator Ryan Taylor, 63%-32%.

Compared to the previous three polls, we see a widening lead for the challenger in
the Presidential race. While the widening lead is incremental, barring an
unforeseen development, Romney should carry the state comfortably in three
weeks.

In the Senate race, the race has tightened significantly against previous polls we
have released. Some of this is a function of the Republican tilt of the state, some is
a function of a barrage of advertising in the low cost state. We continue to
consider this state a true toss-up, as Heitkamp remains personally quite popular,
while Berg`s bruising election to the House in 2010 has left a residual bad taste in
the minds of many in the state. Add in that despite the lean of the state on a
legislative and Presidential level, Hoeven is the only Republican to win a US
Senate seat in North Dakota since 1980, when Mark Andrews won a single term,
and that both Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad had tough first races, and this race
will be competitive right up to election day.

In the House race, while Gulleson is an attractive candidate, running a professional
campaign, Cramer has held statewide elective office and retains a large name
identification edge from his failed races for this seat in the past, and has none of
the negative cachet which seems to be holding Berg back. This race is not
particularly competitive, nor is it likely to become so, barring a major gaffe or
scandal involving Cramer.

In the Governor`s race, Taylor while personally attractive, appears to be running
into a combination of a perception of competence and personal popularity for
Dalrymple and a partisan trend-line which has not seen a Democrat win the
statehouse since 1988. This race is not competitive and is exceptionally unlikely to
become so.

REPORT

S3) CODE SEX 1= Female 2=Male
1= 405 50.19%
2= 402 49.81%

S4) Thinking of the last four general elections (the Presidential Elections in 2004 and 2008
and the Congressional Elections in 2006 and 2010), how many of those elections did you vote
in?
CODE: ENTER NUMBER
2= 108 13.38%
3= 339 42.01%
4= 360 44.61%

S5) Are you registered as a Democrat or a Republican or are you an Independent?
CODE 1= Democrat, 2= Republican, 3= Independent
1= 219 27.14%
2= 336 41.64%
3= 252 31.23%

P1) Thinking about the election for President, if the election were held today would you vote
for (rotate) Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? (Probe for undecided, ask lean)
CODE 1= Obama, 2= Romney, 3= Undecided
1= 317 39.28%
2= 399 49.44%
3= 91 11.28%

P2) Thinking about the election for the US Senate, if the election were held today would you
vote for (rotate) Heidi Heitkamp or Rick Berg? (Probe once for undecided, ask lean)
CODE 1= Heitkamp, 2= Berg, 3=Undecided
1= 397 49.19%
2= 387 47.96%
3= 22 2.73%

P3) Thinking about the Democratic nominee for President, Barack Obama, do you have a
generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?
CODE 1= Favorable, 2= Unfavorable
1= 339 42.01%
2= 459 56.88%

P4) Thinking about the Republican nominee for President, Mitt Romney, do you have a
1= 402 49.81%
2= 381 47.21%

P5) Thinking about the Republican nominee for the US Senate, Rick Berg, do you have a
1= 378 46.84%
2= 405 50.19%

P6) Thinking about the Democratic nominee for the US Senate, Heidi Heitkamp, do you have
a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of her?
1= 446 55.27%
2= 271 33.58%

P7) Thinking about jobs, which of the Presidential candidates do you feel would be best
equipped to deal with the prolonged high unemployment?
CODE 1= Obama 2= Romney
1= 345 42.75%
2= 438 54.28%
3= 24 2.97%

P8) Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think the country is on the right track or
the wrong track?
CODE 1= Right, 2= Wrong
1= 262 32.47%
2= 547 67.78%

P9) Thinking about your prospects for the next four years personally, do you think that if
your preferred candidate is elected, you will be doing better or worse than you are now?
CODE 1=Better, 2= Worse
1= 499 61.83%
2= 160 19.83%
3= 150 18.59%

P10) In the election for the US House of Representatives, do you intend to vote for (rotate)
Kevin Cramer or Pam Gulleson?
CODE 1= Gulleson, 2= Cramer
1= 342 42.38%
2= 438 54.28%
3= 27 3.35%

P11) In the election for Governor, do you intend to vote for (rotate) Jack Dalyrymple or Ryan
Taylor?
CODE 1= Taylor, 2= Dalrymple
1= 258 31.97%
2= 507 62.83%
3= 42 5.20%

PARTICULARS: 807 Likely Voters, surveyed by live calls October 19, 2012 through October
21, 2012. Landline and cellphone mix (85-15). Margin of error +/- 3.44%

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