Banking Sector Update
Banking Sector Update
Banking Sector Update
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 [email protected]
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 [email protected]
Harshal Patkar
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 [email protected]
Heavy slippages and high inventory of Gross NPAs coupled with low C/D ratio caused margins to fall
Persistent asset quality pressures continue to affect the banking sectors margins quarter after quarter, as more than half of our coverage banks reported sequentially lower margins during 1QFY2014. Andhra Bank (ANDBK) and South Indian Bank (SIB) witnessed the highest sequential margin compression, on account of higher interest reversals on heavy slippages witnessed during the quarter (slippages for ANDBK and SIB were higher sequentially by 26.8% and 48.0%, respectively during the quarter).
Bank ANDBK SIB UNBK VIJAYA CANBK SYNBK INDBK BOB BOM UCOBK IDBI ICICIBK IOB CRPBK
1QFY2014 2.70 2.93 2.63 2.00 2.21 2.83 2.74 2.84 3.02 2.27 2.12 3.27 2.24 2.26
4QFY2013 3.04 3.20 2.89 2.21 2.39 2.97 2.88 2.93 3.10 2.34 2.19 3.33 2.30 2.31
Chg (bps) (34) (27) (26) (21) (18) (14) (14) (9) (8) (7) (7) (6) (6) (5)
Bank SBI CENTBK YESBK PNB ALLBK FEDBK BOI J&KBK OBC DENABK HDFCBK AXSB UTDBK SBI
1QFY2014 3.44 2.68 3.00 3.52 2.83 3.13 3.07 4.15 2.90 2.55 4.60 3.86 3.30 3.44
4QFY2013 3.48 2.68 3.00 3.51 2.81 3.07 3.00 4.07 2.82 2.46 4.50 3.70 2.67 3.48
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *domestic margins for SBI, BOB, BOI
Exhibit 2: CD ratio contracts sequentially for more than half of the coverage banks
Bank UCOBK DENABK BOB VIJAYA UNBK BOI YESBK FEDBK CRPBK CENTBK SIB CANBK INDBK 1QFY14 70.7 68.9 68.8 64.5 73.1 73.6 73.4 72.4 70.8 75.7 71.6 65.4 73.0 Chg (bps)QoQ (329) 119 (45) (741) (579) (214) 324 (414) (75) (39) (29) (263) (139) Chg (bps)YoY (619) (594) (588) (409) (357) (345) (331) (285) (272) (263) (202) (199) (90) Bank ANDHBK SYNBK PNB OBC ALLBK SBI HDFCBK ICICIBK J&KBK IOB AXSB BOM IDBI 1QFY14 79.8 81.8 76.9 72.6 71.6 84.4 85.3 103.5 67.0 85.0 83.1 77.9 97.6 Chg (bps)QoQ 36 223 (197) (70) (88) (258) 434 431 599 571 513 (208) 1120 Chg (bps)YoY (60) (28) 46 59 115 123 241 326 448 480 623 672 1047
Exhibit 3: CASA ratio and Investment-to-deposits ratio for our coverage banks as of 1QFY2014
70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0
CASA Ratio
20 64
43 60
21 47
42 43
29 42
28 38
19 38
40 37
23 36
45 35
19 35
35 34
29 34
24 34
29 34
38 34
45 33
32 33
27 32
24 30
32 30
21 29
26 28
31 27
31 25 BOB
0.0
UNIONBK
ICICIBK
J&KBK
VIJBK
BOM
CENTBK
CANBK
UCOBK
DENABK
CORPBK
ANDHBK
HDFCBK
SYNBK
IDBI
ALLBK
OBC
FEDBK
PNB
INDBK
YESBK
IOB
AXSB
BOI
SBI
SIB
28 25
10.0
Exhibit 6: Risk adjusted yield on assets# for banks under our coverage
Bank YESBK JKBK HDFCBK SIB OBC BOM VIJBK ALBK IDBI UNBK PNB CANBK FEDBK 1QFY14 9.3 9.1 8.8 8.6 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 1QFY13 Chg (bps) 9.8 9.4 8.6 10.0 8.8 7.6 8.3 9.0 8.1 8.3 8.2 8.4 9.4 (46) (22) 13 (138) (92) 29 (44) (133) (59) (83) (68) (94) (201) Bank CRPBK ANDBK AXSB SYNDBK INDBK ICICIBK* SBI* IOB DENABK CNTBK UCOBK BOI* BOB* 1QFY14 1QFY13 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.2 5.9 8.5 9.2 8.5 8.1 8.8 7.6 7.6 8.1 8.8 8.4 8.3 7.3 6.7
#
Chg (bps) (111) (183) (119) (92) (166) (59) (67) (119) (193) (162) (183) (103) (83)
basis witnessed a healthy growth of 14.9% yoy, which was majorly on the back of a robust performance on the recoveries front. Within mid-PSU banks, the performance was aided by a healthy 44.7% yoy growth in Central Bank, 27.4% yoy growth in Allahabad Bank and 22.0% yoy increase in Vijaya Bank. Within mid-PSU banks, the worst performers were Andhra Bank and OBC, which registered a 21.2% and 14.0% yoy decline in non-interest income respectively, during the quarter.
Exhibit 7: Moderate Non-interest income (excl. treasury) performance for banks under our coverage
Bank Private YESBK HDFCBK AXSB ICICIBK FEDBK SIB PSU-Large PNB SBI IDBI CANBK UNBK BOB BOI PSU-Mid OBC IOB ALLBK CRPBK BOM INDBK ANDHBK CENTBK UCOBK VIJAYA J&KBK DENABK SYNBK 332 397 324 297 167 215 182 319 228 125 73 118 210 394 498 427 443 295 334 249 493 246 171 125 152 357 (15.5) (20.4) (24.0) (33.0) (43.4) (35.6) (27.0) (35.3) (7.3) (26.4) (41.6) (22.9) (41.4) 422 401 255 285 155 200 211 220 220 103 73 110 213 (21.2) (1.1) 27.4 4.1 8.1 7.4 (14.0) 44.7 3.6 22.0 (0.6) 7.2 (1.4) 0.66 0.66 0.63 0.62 0.54 0.52 0.49 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.42 0.42 0.39 0.94 0.72 0.56 0.71 0.69 0.55 0.67 0.38 0.49 0.42 0.49 0.48 0.47 (28) (6) 7 (10) (15) (3) (18) 9 (3) 3 (6) (6) (7) 995 3,273 574 794 517 821 657 853 5,318 1,004 755 640 903 937 16.6 (38.4) (42.8) 5.3 (19.2) (9.0) (29.9) 1,030 3,272 473 594 436 689 740 (3.4) 0.0 21.4 33.8 18.6 19.2 (11.3) 0.83 0.82 0.75 0.75 0.65 0.60 0.56 0.90 0.95 0.67 0.63 0.66 0.61 0.75 (7) (13) 8 12 (1) (1) (19) 442 1,726 1,341 2,081 127 66 379 1,739 1,769 2,115 139 107 16.5 (0.7) (24.2) (1.6) (9.0) (38.5) 288 1,583 1,185 1,901 98 55 53.4 9.0 13.2 9.5 29.3 20.0 1.79 1.69 1.59 1.55 0.71 0.53 1.52 1.81 1.65 1.59 0.64 0.54 27 (12) (6) (4) 7 (0) 1QFY2014 4QFY2013 % chg (qoq) 1QFY2013 % chg (yoy) As % to avg. assets 1QFY2014 1QFY2013 Chg (bps)
Asset quality woes aggravate during the quarter; and are unlike to abate as quickly as was expected earlier
Asset quality stress has remained at elevated levels for banks, thereby denting sectors performance and outlook. Slippages for the banking industry have continued to trend northwards for the last couple of years. Until 4QFY2013, there were signs of moderation in pace of asset quality deterioration, as the increase in annualized slippage ratio for overall FY2013 came in 26bp yoy, much lower than the increase of 38bp and 57bp yoy witnessed in 9MFY2013 and 1HFY2013, respectively. In 1QFY2014, asset quality woes have intensified, as annualized slippage rate has surged to 3.7%, a much higher increase of 63bp yoy. Amongst large PSU banks, almost all witnessed a sequential and yoy increase in their quarterly slippage ratios. Large PSU banks, as a segment witnessed annualized slippage ratio of 4.2% as against 3.6%, a year ago. Within the mid-PSU ones, barring JKBK and UCOBK (which managed to lower their annualized slippage ratio by 110-340bp qoq and 20-100bp yoy), most others continued to witness elevated level of slippages and hence witnessed sequential and yoy increase in annualized slippage ratio. Mid PSU banks, as a segment witnessed annualized slippage ratio of 3.7% as against 2.7% in 1QFY2013. Though efforts on recoveries/upgrades front have increased considerably, however, during the quarter most PSU banks reported moderate performance on the recoveries/upgrades front. Elevated slippages coupled with moderate recoveries and upgrades resulted in Gross NPA levels for our coverage PSU banks increasingly sharply by 16.8% qoq and 43.9% yoy. During the quarter, heavy treasury gains aided the banks to provide higher for NPAs and hence their provisioning expenses for our coverage PSU banks increased by 41.5% yoy. However, most of them witnessed sequential drop in provision coverage ratio, as slippages during the quarter were much higher. Banks like, SBI PNB, BOB and CANBK - within the large PSUs and CNTBK, CRPBK, ANDBK and DENABK within the mid PSUs, witnessed much higher decrease in their provisioning coverage ratio compared to others. Higher sequential increase in GNPA levels and lower provision coverage (for most of our coverage banks) resulted in sequentially much higher net NPA levels for PSU banks (increase of 24.0% qoq and 61.6% yoy). Private Banks, on the other hand, though were not spared from asset quality pressures, however they performed relatively much better vis--vis PSU banks on the overall asset quality front. Though private banks witnessed sequential and yoy increase in slippages, however, they also reported healthy recoveries and upgrades performances and as a result the sequential increase in Gross NPA levels for our coverage Pvt. Banks was limited to 5.4% qoq. Going ahead, we believe that the asset quality pressures are unlikely to abate as quickly as were expected earlier. Weakening economic growth environment, persisting burden of high interest servicing costs, significantly higher currency depreciation and its reflection on inflation (which had started moderating otherwise) would ensure that the slippages for the banking sector remain elevated in the near term, as against earlier expectations of moderation by the second half of the current fiscal.
Exhibit 10: Net NPA trend (%) for the banking* industry
2.30 2.10 1.90 1.70 1.50 1.30 1.10 0.90 1.08 1.07 1.00 0.99 1.04 1.28 1.36 1.30 1.49 1.74 1.80 1.72 2.09
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
2.01 0.53
Exhibit 11: Gross NPA trends (%) Pvt. vs. PSU banks*
4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 2.85 3.34 3.02 2.98 Pvt Banks PSU Banks 3.76 3.87 3.67 4.26
Exhibit 12: Net NPA trends (%) Private vs. PSU banks*
3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 1.07 1.09 1.16 1.47 1.56 1.50 1.73 Pvt Banks PSU Banks 2.47 2.04 2.12
2.45 2.34 2.42 2.35 2.27 2.80 2.70 2.57 2.36 2.33 2.24 2.17
0.50 0.00
0.69
0.56
0.56
0.54
0.54
0.46
0.49
0.54
0.55
0.62
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
1QFY14
Exhibit 13: Asset quality woes aggravate in 1QFY2014, as annualized slippage rate inch up to 3.7%
Bank UTDBK CENTBK SBI ALLBK PNB ANDHBK CANBK IOB SYNBK IDBI BOM CRPBK UNBK FEDBK SIB BOI BOB VIJAYA DENABK INDBK OBC UCOBK ICICIBK AXSB J&KBK HDFCBK YESBK Total Cov. PSU Large PSU Mid PSU Pvt. New Pvt. Old Pvt. Total Cov. 1QFY14 7.0 5.6 5.3 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.5 1.4 0.8 NA NA 3.7 4.0 4.2 3.7 1.6 1.5 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.8 1.4 1.2 2.7 4QFY13 6.7 1.9 2.7 9.3 NA 4.3 1.9 5.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 (0.3) 2.0 3.8 2.2 2.7 2.9 1.8 2.8 5.8 3.7 5.3 1.2 0.9 1.9 NA NA 2.9 3.1 2.7 3.9 1.4 1.1 3.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 2.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 qoq (bps) 26 368 256 (407) NA 30 257 (92) 162 143 77 321 85 (102) 58 5 (31) 83 (35) (335) (135) (337) 31 45 (106) NA NA 77 84 145 (23) 27 36 (35) 153 163 217 67 86 66 211 1QFY13 chg (bps) FY2013 FY2012 chg (bps) 9MFY13 9MFY12 chg (bps) 1HFY13 1HFY12 chg (bps) 1.9 3.9 5.0 2.1 3.8 4.0 2.6 2.5 3.4 2.3 3.1 2.9 3.7 3.1 1.3 2.8 1.8 3.3 1.4 1.0 2.5 3.0 1.4 1.1 1.0 NA NA 3.1 3.3 3.6 2.7 1.4 1.3 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.5 1.4 1.0 0.8 1.9 507 166 27 311 89 56 186 170 22 113 (18) 5 (85) (30) 142 (6) 82 (70) 113 141 (15) (102) 17 31 (19) NA NA 63 68 54 94 25 22 42 85 91 63 140 40 35 76 3.9 3.5 3.7 5.3 2.9 3.5 2.5 4.0 2.9 1.8 2.1 1.8 2.2 3.2 1.9 3.0 2.4 2.8 2.0 4.1 2.9 4.5 1.5 1.2 1.4 NA NA 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.4 1.5 1.4 2.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.1 0.8 0.8 1.2 3.7 5.3 3.5 2.4 2.8 3.1 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.4 2.5 3.7 0.8 2.5 1.5 4.2 1.6 2.5 4.1 2.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 NA NA 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0 1.5 1.4 2.6 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.6 27 (179) 15 292 19 46 34 113 21 (19) 28 40 (26) (50) 109 43 88 (146) 36 159 (119) 205 6 (10) 17 NA NA 26 29 23 41 1 (1) 8 26 23 15 36 47 45 62 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.3 2.7 3.6 3.2 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.3 3.0 1.9 3.1 2.2 3.1 1.7 3.5 2.6 4.2 1.5 1.3 1.2 NA NA 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 1.6 1.4 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.8 1.4 3.4 3.4 3.9 1.8 2.1 3.2 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.4 1.2 1.6 2.8 3.8 0.7 3.1 1.2 4.7 1.4 1.5 3.6 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.9 NA NA 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.5 1.5 1.4 2.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 (41) 62 7 216 136 8 54 103 93 (61) 96 88 (46) (81) 117 (9) 96 (160) 27 203 (100) 208 6 3 26 NA NA 38 43 26 73 4 5 (7) 37 36 16 74 44 42 56 2.4 4.4 4.1 4.2 5.0 3.8 2.9 3.9 3.3 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.3 2.4 3.6 1.9 3.6 1.7 2.1 2.4 4.2 1.6 1.3 1.1 NA NA 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.2 1.6 1.5 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.0 1.0 1.7 3.8 2.8 3.8 1.4 1.8 3.7 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.0 1.2 1.5 3.4 3.7 0.7 4.2 1.0 4.4 1.4 1.5 3.9 2.1 1.4 1.1 1.0 NA NA 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.5 1.5 1.3 2.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 (141) 154 39 272 319 10 49 122 87 (13) 113 79 (70) (139) 170 (63) 88 (80) 34 69 (150) 210 23 16 7 NA NA 57 63 56 75 16 20 (18) 54 51 41 71 71 66 101
Aggregate level Net Slippages (i.e. slippages minus recoveries and upgrades)
PSU
Large PSU Mid PSU Pvt. New Pvt. Old Pvt.
10
Exhibit 14: Gross and Net NPA levels deteriorate sequentially during the quarter
GNPA(` cr) Bank UTDBK CRPBK BOM ANDHBK CENTBK IDBI BOB DENABK ALLBK SYNBK SBI CANBK HDFCBK SIB IOB UNBK PNB YESBK BOI VIJAYA INDBK ICICIBK AXSB J&KBK OBC UCOBK FEDBK 1QFY14 4,002 2,749 1,500 4,748 10,529 7,959 9,763 1,757 6,164 3,554 60,891 7,329 2,719 493 7,432 7,093 15,091 105 9,413 1,645 3,723 10,009 2,490 665 4,303 7,178 1,483 4QFY13 2,964 2,048 1,138 3,714 8,456 6,450 7,983 1,452 5,137 2,979 51,189 6,260 2,335 434 6,608 6,314 13,466 94 8,765 1,533 3,565 9,608 2,393 644 4,184 7,130 1,554 qoq (%) 35.0 34.2 31.8 27.8 24.5 23.4 22.3 21.0 20.0 19.3 19.0 17.1 16.5 13.5 12.5 12.3 12.1 11.2 7.4 7.3 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.4 2.8 0.7 (4.6) 1QFY14 2,700 1,900 656 3,212 6,527 3,872 5,441 1,114 4,922 1,759 29,990 6,209 689 348 4,580 3,883 9,060 12 6,409 977 2,486 2,463 790 56 2,936 3,939 374 NNPA(` cr) 4QFY13 1,970 1,411 393 2,409 4,988 3,100 4,192 917 4,127 1,125 21,956 5,278 469 250 4,027 3,353 7,237 7 5,947 910 2,384 2,231 704 55 2,903 4,069 432 qoq (%) 37.0 34.7 66.9 33.3 30.9 24.9 29.8 21.5 19.3 56.4 36.6 17.6 46.9 39.6 13.7 15.8 25.2 72.8 7.8 7.4 4.3 10.4 12.2 1.5 1.2 (3.2) (13.5) 1QFY14 NA 56.8 76.5 45.0 42.5 68.0 63.6 66.1 48.2 76.8 60.6 58.2 74.7 57.9 58.7 63.4 54.7 88.5 61.0 67.3 61.3 75.4 68.3 94.0 63.9 54.8 74.8 PCR (%) 4QFY13 62.5 62.1 83.7 49.6 47.8 70.8 68.2 69.6 50.0 83.4 66.6 61.4 79.9 53.2 58.9 65.2 58.8 92.6 60.9 68.3 60.1 76.8 70.6 94.0 63.0 52.1 72.2 qoq (%) NA (527) (718) (455) (529) (286) (460) (344) (182) (666) (598) (317) (525) 470 (20) (178) (416) (410) 5 (103) 111 (139) (230) 88 267 261
11
Referred No. of cases 31 49 18 18 23 28 87 41 33 25 31 130 27 549 Additions 20,175 22,614 4,595 21,095 19,187 23,012 67,889 20,528 18,907 20,957 31,256 91,648 39,370 337,511
Approved No. of cases 31 27 10 7 17 16 50 17 18 35 39 109 14 415 Additions 17,763 6,615 8,141 2,095 21,364 8,001 39,601 17,957 18,925 24,581 17,035 78,498 21,266 250,279
12
13
Divergence in Earnings continues - New Private Banks deliver strong performance, while PSUs and old private banks report weak performance
Over the last few years, PSU banks have continuously lost profit market share (both on reported profit as well as on profit adjusted for increase in net NPAs) within our coverage. This could be primarily attributed to their relatively high exposure to overleveraged companies in sensitive sectors, whose financials have bore the most severe brunt of slowing economic growth and persisting burden of elevated interest servicing costs. As far as reported profit is concerned, the market share for PSU banks have noticeably declined from 77% in FY2010 to 68% in FY2013, however, the decline is much sharper in case of profit adjusted for increase in net NPAs, where PSU banks have witnessed market share erosion of ~25%, from 71% in FY2010 to 47% in FY2013. In 1QFY2014, PSU banks, on an aggregate basis, have reported earnings of `12,053cr, however, have also witnessed `19,876cr increase in net NPA levels during the quarter, thereby leading to loss of `7,824cr, on an adjusted basis.
Exhibit 21: Profit market share trends for our coverage Banks PSU Banks losing significantly
Banks PSU banks Mid Large Private Banks Old New Market share PSU Banks (%) Mid Large Private Banks (%) old new 77 26 51 23 1 22 75 26 49 25 2 24 72 23 49 28 2 26 68 21 47 32 2 31 66 21 46 34 1 33 71 23 48 29 2 28 70 24 45 30 2 29 58 13 45 42 3 39 47 6 41 53 2 51 (346) (103) (243) 246 8 238 Reported Profit FY2010 35,974 11,995 23,980 10,664 698 9,966 FY2011 41,390 14,205 27,186 14,072 879 13,193 FY2012 46,240 14,863 31,377 18,030 1,178 16,852 FY2013 47,620 14,625 32,995 22,872 1,340 21,532 1QFY14 12,053 3,745 8,308 6,148 221 5,928 Profit adjusted for increase in Net NPAs FY2010 27,852 9,028 18,824 11,561 710 10,851 FY2011 35,610 12,524 23,086 15,554 819 14,735 FY2012 25,420 5,906 19,515 18,425 1,154 17,272 FY2013 19,114 2,388 16,726 21,759 934 20,825 1QFY14 (7,824) (2,332) (5,491) 5,565 180 5,385
During 1QFY2014, New Private Banks delivered a strong earnings growth of 28.3% yoy. On the other hand, PSU and old Private Banks reported a weak performance, primarily marred by elevated asset quality pressures and slower growth. During the quarter, PSU banks posted a bottom-line decline of 7.4% yoy (within which midPSUs reported higher earnings de-growth of 12.2% as against 4.9% for larger ones), while old private banks reported largely flat performance during the quarter. On the NII front, while new Private Banks reported a strong performance with growth of 26.8% yoy, old Private Banks too witnessed a healthy growth of 16.6% yoy. Affected by elevated asset quality pressures, PSU banks reported a modest NII growth of 7.0% yoy. During the quarter, a favorable yield movement aided almost all banks to book heavy treasury gains and hence other income growth during the quarter came in at
August 28, 2013
14
a substantial 49.5% yoy for PSU banks and 38.9% yoy for Private Banks. Despite a moderate NII performance, strong other income growth (largely on back of heavy treasury gains) aided PSU banks, both mid and large, to report operating income growth of 22.0% and 14.1%, yoy respectively. On the operating income front, private banks reported a strong performance with a growth of 29.8% yoy. Apart from the impending wage revision, which all PSU banks continued to provide during the quarter, unlike other PSU banks, SBI also provided for higher retirement benefits on account of change in longevity assumptions (`600cr during the quarter, which is to continue at same pace over the next three quarters). As a result, operating expenses grew by 25.6% and 19.8% yoy, respectively for large PSU banks and mid-PSU banks. Consequently, the operating profit grew at a modest pace of 5.6% yoy for large PSU banks, while the same grew at a much higher pace of 23.8% yoy for mid-PSU ones. Persistent asset quality stress (evident in 43.6% yoy increase in gross NPA levels of PSU banks), resulted in a 40.7% yoy increase in provisioning expenses for PSU banks and hence, earnings for these banks declined by 4.7% yoy.
(128) (1,379.2)
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:* all excl. SBI associate banks
On the other hand, Private Banks registered a 20.8% yoy increase in operating expenses and hence, operating profit for them grew at a much higher pace of 37.5% yoy (37.0% yoy and 41.2% yoy for new and old private banks, respectively). On the asset quality front, new Private Banks were not sparred from asset quality pressures; however, they have faced relatively much lower pressures compared to old Private banks. Gross NPA levels for new Private Banks increased by 11.0% yoy, while for older ones it increased by a much higher 25.4% yoy. As a result, the provisioning expenses for new Private Banks during the quarter witnessed an increase of 67.7% yoy, while for older Private Banks it more than tripled on a yoy basis. Overall, on the earnings front, while new private banks reported a strong growth of 28.3% yoy, older ones reported flat earnings performances for the quarter.
15
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:* all listed excl. DHB, PSB, SBM, SBT
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:* all listed excl. DHB, PSB, UTDBK,
16
MTM losses lower post RBIs relaxation; however still remain significant to affect overall earnings
Recent series of RBI measures to tighten domestic liquidity so as to check exchange rate volatility has led to significant surge in interest rates across the yield curve. Since July 15, 2013 (when first such measures were announced) to till date, interest rates across the yield curve have inched up considerably (higher for shorter maturities, thereby inverting the yield curve). While CD/CP rates are considerably higher by 250-350bp, both sovereign and corporate bond yields across various maturity buckets have increased anywhere between 100-125bp. Indian banks, having realized significant treasury gains in 1QFY2014, are sitting on heavy MTM losses in their AFS/HFT investment book. As a one off measure, the RBI has recently allowed banks to move SLR securities to HTM from AFS/HFT category upto the limit of 24.5%, at cost or market value as at the end of July 15, 2013, whichever is lower. The move is positive primarily for State Bank of India (SBI), Canara Bank and OBC, as they have had higher headroom available within the 24.5% limit. Moreover, the RBI also allowed banks to spread over the remaining MTM loss over the next three quarters. Considering AFS positioning as of June 30, 2013 along with RBI relaxations, still PSU banks like SBI, Canara Bank, PNB, Corporation Bank and Union Bank are expected to witness significant MTM losses during 2QFY2014.
7.0 6.0
6.0 CP 1M CP 3M CP 12M CD 1M CD 3M CD 12M AAA 1 Yr AAA 5 Yr AAA 10 Yr Gsec 1Yr Gsec 10Yr
7.0
17
Bank
CANBK IOB ALLBK CENTBK BOI BOM CRPBK PNB DENABK SYNBK OBC UNBK BOB ANDHBK JKBK FEDBK INDBK IDBI VIJAYA SBI
65,551 45,086 34,197 53,485 67,575 NA 37,000 86,525 24,722 34,676 25,757 68,733 75,433 NA 15,700 NA 30,074 67,300 NA 233,000
17.2 23.0 19.0 23.2 21.4 NA 22.7 21.8 26.2 19.0 14.6 25.3 23.3 NA 26.8 NA 20.1 36.7 NA 19.7
69,295 13,836 23,807 21,659 37,508 6,686 26,177 45,626 6,825 11,369 23,609 22,864 20,332 8,000 6,033 3,000 16,690 17,721 11,323 160,000
18.1 7.1 13.2 9.4 11.9 6.3 16.1 11.5 7.2 6.2 13.4 8.4 6.3 6.4 10.3 5.3 11.2 9.7 10.7 13.5
3.75 4.71 3.01 3.00 1.67 3.00 3.78 4.66 5.29 3.00 4.54 2.91 2.90 3.00 2.84 2.76 3.00 1.30 2.76 3.40
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *due to unavailability of data regarding AFS duration, conservatively assumed it to be 3 years,# from the closing 10 year G sec yields on June 30, 2013, $due to unavailability of data regarding NDTL uniformly for all our coverage banks, we have used total deposits for all and domestic deposits for BOB, SBI and BOI, hence the actual headroom to banks might be lower than depicted here
18
19
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
20
28.0 27.0
Jul-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Aug-13 Jul-13
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jan-13
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Apr-13
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
CP 3M
CP 12M
CD 3M
CD 12M
21
Feb-13
Feb-13
Sep-12
Sep-12
May-13
Dec-12
Jun-13
Jan-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Nov-12
Aug-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Apr-13
(3.00)
Dec-06
Mar-08
Aug-08
Jan-09
Jun-09
Apr-10
Nov-09
Nov-11
Oct-05
Feb-06
Oct-07
Feb-11
Apr-12
Sep-10
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-06
Jul-11
June 2012 (` cr) 550,808 2,000,577 241,564 117,787 1,641,226 1,043,374 808,484 414,357 93,981 4,403,243 % of total 12.5 45.4 5.5 2.7 37.3 23.7 18.4 9.4 2.1 100.0 (` cr) 605,140 2,282,018 292,753 132,112 1,857,154 1,169,882 934,773 484,899 116,705 4,991,813
May-07
June 2013 % of total 12.1 45.7 5.9 2.6 37.2 23.4 18.7 9.7 2.3 100.0 % chg (yoy) 9.9 14.1 21.2 12.2 13.2 12.1 15.6 17.0 24.2 13.4
June 2012 (` cr) 648,830 266,412 161,518 116,531 126,885 92,796 62,036 49,145 56,049 53,608 366,766 2,000,577 % of total 32.4 13.3 8.1 5.8 6.3 4.6 3.1 2.5 2.8 2.7 18.3 100.0 (` cr) 772,721 321,912 185,150 133,549 148,029 124,559 56,610 53,835 60,815 68,574 356,263 2,282,018
June 2013 % of total 33.9 14.1 8.1 5.9 6.5 5.5 2.5 2.4 2.7 3.0 15.6 100.0 % chg (yoy) 19.1 20.8 14.6 14.6 16.7 34.2 (8.7) 9.5 8.5 27.9 (2.9) 14.1
Jul-13
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Valuation watch
Exhibit 44: Private banks* P/ABV trend
4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 1.20 0.80 0.40 1.60 P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile 2.00
Feb-10
Jul-09
May-08
Dec-08
Sep-10
Jun-05
Jun-12
Jan-06
Jan-13
Aug-06
Mar-07
Nov-04
Nov-11
Aug-13
Oct-07
Apr-11
Dec-06
Aug-08
Dec-11
Jan-09
Jun-09
Mar-08
Nov-04
Nov-09
May-07
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Pvt. banks under our coverage
Feb-10
Jul-09
May-08
Dec-08
Sep-10
Jun-05
Jun-12
Jan-06
Jan-13
Aug-06
Mar-07
Nov-04
Nov-11
Aug-13
Oct-07
Apr-11
Dec-06
Aug-08
Dec-11
Jan-09
Jun-09
May-12
Mar-08
Nov-04
Nov-09
May-07
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *New Pvt. banks under our coverage
Feb-06
Feb-11
Sep-05
Sep-10
Jul-06
May-07
Jul-11
May-12
Dec-06
Aug-08
Dec-11
Jan-09
Jun-09
Mar-08
Nov-04
Nov-09
Mar-13
Aug-13
Apr-05
Oct-07
Apr-10
Oct-12
Dec-06
Aug-08
Dec-11
Jan-09
Jun-09
May-12
Mar-08
Nov-04
Nov-09
May-07
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Old Pvt. banks under our coverage
May-12
23
Aug-13
Apr-05
Oct-07
Apr-10
Feb-06
Feb-11
Sep-05
Sep-10
Oct-12
Jul-06
Jul-11
Aug-13
Apr-05
Oct-07
Apr-10
Feb-06
Feb-11
Sep-05
Sep-10
Oct-12
Jul-06
Jul-11
Aug-13
Apr-05
Oct-07
Apr-10
Feb-06
Feb-11
Sep-05
Sep-10
Oct-12
Jul-06
Jul-11
Economy watch
Exhibit 50: Quarterly GDP trend
(%) 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 11.4 9.3 7.7 9.5 8.6 9.2 9.9 7.5 6.5 6.0 5.1 5.4 5.2
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
(4.0)
Feb-13
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13 Jun-13
Dec-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Sep-12
May-13
Dec-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
46.0
Nov-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Sep-12
Apr-13
Jul-12
Apr-13
May-12
Repo rate
Dec-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Sep-12
Apr-13
Jun-13
May-13
Jul-13
May-13
CRR
Jul-13
Jun-13
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Website: www.angelbroking.com
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This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd., its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd. or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd. has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd. endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd. and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd., nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd. and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
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Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
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CSO & Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 93. Tel: (022) 3083 7700. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd: BSE Cash: INB010996539 / BSE F&O: INF010996539, CDSL Regn. No.: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 2004, PMS Regn. Code: PM/INP000001546, NSE Cash: INB231279838 / NSE F&O: INF231279838 / NSE Currency: INE231279838, MCX Stock Exchange Ltd: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500. Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd.: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn. No.: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn. No.: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302.
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