Banking Sector Update

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 27

Sector Update | Banking

August 28, 2013

Banking - 1QFY2014 Result Review


Macro environment remains challenging
Asset quality woes aggravate during the quarter: Asset quality stress has remained at elevated levels for banks, thereby denting sectors performance and outlook. Until 4QFY2013, there were signs of moderation in pace of asset quality deterioration, as the increase in annualized slippage ratio for overall FY2013 came in 26bp yoy, much lower than the increase of 38bp and 57bp yoy witnessed in 9MFY2013 and 1HFY2013, respectively. In 1QFY2014, asset quality woes intensified, as annualized slippage rate surged to 3.7%, a much higher increase of 63bp yoy. Elevated slippages coupled with moderate performance on the recoveries and upgrades front, resulted in sharp 16.8% qoq increase in Gross NPA levels for our coverage PSU banks, while the increase was moderate for our coverage Pvt. banks at 5.4%. Lower inflation catalyst unlikely to play out, lower interest rates now depend more on exchange rate stability: Until a couple of months back, lower inflation was expected to be a big positive catalyst for the economy, as it would have eventually led to lower rates, improvement in growth, higher savings and investments mobilization, improved asset quality outlook and higher MTM gains. However, recent series of RBI measures to tighten domestic liquidity so as to check exchange rate volatility, has effectively made our monitory policy movement tied to Federal Reserve moves and has led to significant surge in interest rates across the yield curve, which has put a clear hurdle in lower inflation catalyst playing out. Tough time to continue for Indian Banks: Given RBIs policy tightening measures to check USD-INR volatility, macro environment is expected to remain challenging in near term and elevated interest rates and slower growth appears inevitable now. Credit growth for the banking sector is expected to reduce from the levels envisaged earlier. Asset quality outlook also remain tough, as apart from continued elevated level of slippages, higher restructuring and increased slippages from restructured book can be expected. Though the quantum of MTM losses has reduced post the RBI relaxation on transfer within book, the outlook on bond prices still has a downward bias and hence MTM losses would remain meaningful, so as to affect overall earnings. Outlook and Valuation: Elevated interest rates, weakening growth, and a volatile currency would ensure that the earnings pressures for Indian banks will increase here on. PSU banks, apart from the cyclical headwinds mentioned above, also face structural challenges in terms of a) low capital adequacy (for many of them; which increases the risk of book dilutive capital raising and hurt growth prospects), and b) higher competitive intensity (not only loss of deposits and credit market share, but also of profitability - as current credit cycle evidently highlights adverse asset selection on part of PSUs and superior selection by private banks in the past, which is reflecting in their performance now). Although valuations for all of them are below their historic lows, their fundamental investment case appears weak enough to avoid them, until clarity emerges on macro front. Overall, we have a cautious stance on the sector and would recommend staying with the defensives in the near term. After the recent correction in prices, HDFC Bank becomes a Buy for us. We like ICICI Bank and Axis Bank, which in our view, offers value over a medium to long term perspective, though we do not rule the possibilities of these stocks undershooting the fair value estimates in the near term, given the fragile macro environment.
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 [email protected]

Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 [email protected]

Harshal Patkar
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 [email protected]

Banking | Sector Update

Heavy slippages and high inventory of Gross NPAs coupled with low C/D ratio caused margins to fall
Persistent asset quality pressures continue to affect the banking sectors margins quarter after quarter, as more than half of our coverage banks reported sequentially lower margins during 1QFY2014. Andhra Bank (ANDBK) and South Indian Bank (SIB) witnessed the highest sequential margin compression, on account of higher interest reversals on heavy slippages witnessed during the quarter (slippages for ANDBK and SIB were higher sequentially by 26.8% and 48.0%, respectively during the quarter).

Exhibit 1: Our coverage banks performance on reported margins front

Bank ANDBK SIB UNBK VIJAYA CANBK SYNBK INDBK BOB BOM UCOBK IDBI ICICIBK IOB CRPBK

1QFY2014 2.70 2.93 2.63 2.00 2.21 2.83 2.74 2.84 3.02 2.27 2.12 3.27 2.24 2.26

4QFY2013 3.04 3.20 2.89 2.21 2.39 2.97 2.88 2.93 3.10 2.34 2.19 3.33 2.30 2.31

Chg (bps) (34) (27) (26) (21) (18) (14) (14) (9) (8) (7) (7) (6) (6) (5)

Bank SBI CENTBK YESBK PNB ALLBK FEDBK BOI J&KBK OBC DENABK HDFCBK AXSB UTDBK SBI

1QFY2014 3.44 2.68 3.00 3.52 2.83 3.13 3.07 4.15 2.90 2.55 4.60 3.86 3.30 3.44

4QFY2013 3.48 2.68 3.00 3.51 2.81 3.07 3.00 4.07 2.82 2.46 4.50 3.70 2.67 3.48

Chg (bps) (4) 1 2 6 7 8 8 9 10 16 63 (4)

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *domestic margins for SBI, BOB, BOI

Exhibit 2: CD ratio contracts sequentially for more than half of the coverage banks
Bank UCOBK DENABK BOB VIJAYA UNBK BOI YESBK FEDBK CRPBK CENTBK SIB CANBK INDBK 1QFY14 70.7 68.9 68.8 64.5 73.1 73.6 73.4 72.4 70.8 75.7 71.6 65.4 73.0 Chg (bps)QoQ (329) 119 (45) (741) (579) (214) 324 (414) (75) (39) (29) (263) (139) Chg (bps)YoY (619) (594) (588) (409) (357) (345) (331) (285) (272) (263) (202) (199) (90) Bank ANDHBK SYNBK PNB OBC ALLBK SBI HDFCBK ICICIBK J&KBK IOB AXSB BOM IDBI 1QFY14 79.8 81.8 76.9 72.6 71.6 84.4 85.3 103.5 67.0 85.0 83.1 77.9 97.6 Chg (bps)QoQ 36 223 (197) (70) (88) (258) 434 431 599 571 513 (208) 1120 Chg (bps)YoY (60) (28) 46 59 115 123 241 326 448 480 623 672 1047

Source: Company, Angel Research

August 28, 2013

Banking | Sector Update

CASA witnesses moderate growth; in-line with seasonal trend


CASA deposits saw a typical seasonal trend during the quarter, as savings deposits for our coverage universe grew by 9.1% yoy, while current deposits grew by 12.2% yoy. Private banks continued to outperform their PSU peers on the savings deposits (SA) front, with a growth of 17.8% yoy. Amongst our coverage Private banks, Yes Bank witnessed the highest SA growth of 120.6% yoy (it continued to witness significant traction post the hike in savings rate to 6-7%). Within large Private banks, while Axis Bank and HDFC Bank fared well and reported a healthy growth of 19.9% and 16.7% yoy respectively, ICICI Bank witnessed a moderate growth of 14.0% yoy. Amongst PSU banks, the top two performers on the SA front were IDBI Bank (25.8% yoy growth on account of continued traction witnessed post waiver of CASA charges during FY2012) and Bank of India with 16.2% yoy growth respectively. On the current deposits (CA) front, UCO Bank registered a strong performance, as its CA deposits more than doubled on a yoy basis, due to substantial float being made available on opening of rupee accounts with the bank for facilitating Indo-Iran trade payments. Amongst other PSU banks, the top two performers on the CA front were Bank of Baroda (43.2% yoy) and Syndicate Bank (37.9% yoy). Private banks managed to outperform their PSU counterparts on the CA front this time around, with a growth of 14.0% yoy, compared to a growth of 11.6% yoy for PSU banks, whose performance on the CA front was affected on account of de-growth by IDBI Bank and weak performance by PNB.

Exhibit 3: CASA ratio and Investment-to-deposits ratio for our coverage banks as of 1QFY2014
70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0

CASA Ratio

Investments to Deposits - (%)

20 64

43 60

21 47

42 43

29 42

28 38

19 38

40 37

23 36

45 35

19 35

35 34

29 34

24 34

29 34

38 34

45 33

32 33

27 32

24 30

32 30

21 29

26 28

31 27

31 25 BOB

0.0

UNIONBK

ICICIBK

J&KBK

VIJBK

BOM

CENTBK

CANBK

UCOBK

DENABK

CORPBK

ANDHBK

Source: Company, Angel Research

August 28, 2013

HDFCBK

SYNBK

IDBI

ALLBK

OBC

FEDBK

PNB

INDBK

YESBK

IOB

AXSB

BOI

SBI

SIB

28 25

10.0

Banking | Sector Update

Exhibit 4: CASA deposits witness moderate growth


Bank Private Banks YESBK AXSB ICICIBK FEDBK HDFCBK SIB PSU Banks UCOBK BOB BOM BOI SYNBK UNIONBK J&KBK CENTBK ALLBK CANBK PNB CORPBK SBI OBC IDBI VIJBK INDBK DENABK IOB ANDHBK 30,053 83,530 27,297 78,189 37,370 57,663 18,445 61,264 44,288 73,938 123,228 20,279 438,639 31,293 22,145 15,275 33,533 20,845 38,874 24,182 26,861 75,562 24,023 67,308 34,275 50,565 16,081 53,943 38,608 66,504 107,425 18,350 390,410 28,092 17,606 13,441 30,936 19,361 36,370 22,485 11.9 10.5 13.6 16.2 9.0 14.0 14.7 13.6 14.7 11.2 14.7 10.5 12.4 11.4 25.8 13.6 8.4 7.7 6.9 7.5 26,705 34,669 9,950 18,498 13,774 21,445 5,134 12,910 8,854 14,374 26,718 10,853 88,955 10,551 15,565 4,581 6,651 5,509 11,378 6,047 9,291 24,214 7,596 15,926 9,987 18,177 4,480 10,837 7,865 11,398 25,723 9,419 83,485 9,899 17,037 4,949 6,292 5,282 10,985 6,269 187.4 43.2 31.0 16.2 37.9 18.0 14.6 19.1 12.6 26.1 3.9 15.2 6.6 6.6 (8.6) (7.4) 5.7 4.3 3.6 (3.5) 56,758 118,199 37,247 96,687 51,144 79,108 23,579 74,174 53,142 88,312 149,946 31,132 527,594 41,844 37,710 19,856 40,183 26,354 50,252 30,000 36,151 99,776 31,619 83,233 44,262 68,742 20,560 64,780 46,473 77,902 133,148 27,769 473,895 37,990 34,643 18,390 37,228 24,643 47,355 28,754 57.0 18.5 17.8 16.2 15.5 15.1 14.7 14.5 14.4 13.4 12.6 12.1 11.3 10.1 8.9 8.0 7.9 6.9 6.1 4.3 32.1 31.2 35.3 30.6 28.0 29.1 40.2 32.1 29.5 23.1 37.8 19.1 44.7 23.7 20.6 18.8 26.9 27.9 25.6 23.8 6,622 63,298 88,853 13,811 89,480 7,290 3,001 52,777 77,923 11,977 76,674 6,390 120.6 19.9 14.0 15.3 16.7 14.1 6,542 37,798 36,981 2,692 46,071 1,678 5,169 34,165 30,754 2,358 41,682 1,445 26.6 10.6 20.2 14.2 10.5 16.1 13,163 101,096 125,834 16,503 135,551 8,968 8,170 86,942 108,677 14,335 118,356 7,835 61.1 16.3 15.8 15.1 14.5 14.5 20.2 42.4 43.2 29.0 44.7 20.6 SA 1QFY14 SA 1QFY13 yoy growth CA 1QFY14 CA 1QFY13 yoy growth CASA 1QFY14 CASA 1QFY13 yoy growth CASA Ratio

Source: Company, Angel Research

August 28, 2013

Banking | Sector Update

Exhibit 5: Yield on advances# for banks under our coverage


Bank YESBK SIB JKBK HDFCBK FEDBK OBC DENABK ANDBK CRPBK IDBI BOM UTDBK CNTBK ALBK 1QFY14 12.8 12.3 12.1 11.8 11.6 11.3 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.5 1QFY13 13.0 12.6 12.4 12.2 12.3 11.8 11.4 11.8 11.0 11.3 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.9 Chg (bps) (23) (30) (33) (44) (64) (48) (38) (89) (15) (45) (20) (47) (49) (136) Bank AXSB VIJBK CANBK INDBK PNB IOB UNBK UCOBK ICICIBK* SYNDBK SBI* BOI* BOB* 1QFY14 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.7 9.4 9.1 8.3 8.2 1QFY13 10.9 11.4 10.9 11.3 11.1 10.8 10.9 11.3 9.9 10.5 9.9 8.7 9.0 Chg (bps) (35) (95) (39) (96) (88) (66) (78) (131) (16) (114) (87) (37) (76)

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note:*includes significant overseas operations, #Calculated

Exhibit 6: Risk adjusted yield on assets# for banks under our coverage
Bank YESBK JKBK HDFCBK SIB OBC BOM VIJBK ALBK IDBI UNBK PNB CANBK FEDBK 1QFY14 9.3 9.1 8.8 8.6 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 1QFY13 Chg (bps) 9.8 9.4 8.6 10.0 8.8 7.6 8.3 9.0 8.1 8.3 8.2 8.4 9.4 (46) (22) 13 (138) (92) 29 (44) (133) (59) (83) (68) (94) (201) Bank CRPBK ANDBK AXSB SYNDBK INDBK ICICIBK* SBI* IOB DENABK CNTBK UCOBK BOI* BOB* 1QFY14 1QFY13 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.2 5.9 8.5 9.2 8.5 8.1 8.8 7.6 7.6 8.1 8.8 8.4 8.3 7.3 6.7
#

Chg (bps) (111) (183) (119) (92) (166) (59) (67) (119) (193) (162) (183) (103) (83)

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note:*includes significant overseas operations, Calculated

Moderate performance on the non-interest income (excluding treasury) front


Our coverage banks performance on the non-interest income (excluding treasury) front in 1QFY2014 was moderate, with a growth of 9.9% yoy, similar to 9.0% yoy witnessed during the last quarter. The moderate growth was aided by improved performance on the fee income front and higher recoveries on written off accounts. Private Banks performance on the non-interest income (excluding treasury) front was relatively better at 13.2% yoy, higher than our coverage PSU banks, which saw a moderate growth of 7.7% yoy. Amongst the large PSU banks, a yoy decline was witnessed in two of the seven banks (PNB and Bank of India), however, a 33.8% yoy growth in Canara Bank and a 21.4% yoy growth in IDBI Bank, aided the larger PSU pack to register a marginal growth of 5.5% yoy. Mid-PSU banks, on an aggregate
August 28, 2013

Banking | Sector Update

basis witnessed a healthy growth of 14.9% yoy, which was majorly on the back of a robust performance on the recoveries front. Within mid-PSU banks, the performance was aided by a healthy 44.7% yoy growth in Central Bank, 27.4% yoy growth in Allahabad Bank and 22.0% yoy increase in Vijaya Bank. Within mid-PSU banks, the worst performers were Andhra Bank and OBC, which registered a 21.2% and 14.0% yoy decline in non-interest income respectively, during the quarter.

Exhibit 7: Moderate Non-interest income (excl. treasury) performance for banks under our coverage
Bank Private YESBK HDFCBK AXSB ICICIBK FEDBK SIB PSU-Large PNB SBI IDBI CANBK UNBK BOB BOI PSU-Mid OBC IOB ALLBK CRPBK BOM INDBK ANDHBK CENTBK UCOBK VIJAYA J&KBK DENABK SYNBK 332 397 324 297 167 215 182 319 228 125 73 118 210 394 498 427 443 295 334 249 493 246 171 125 152 357 (15.5) (20.4) (24.0) (33.0) (43.4) (35.6) (27.0) (35.3) (7.3) (26.4) (41.6) (22.9) (41.4) 422 401 255 285 155 200 211 220 220 103 73 110 213 (21.2) (1.1) 27.4 4.1 8.1 7.4 (14.0) 44.7 3.6 22.0 (0.6) 7.2 (1.4) 0.66 0.66 0.63 0.62 0.54 0.52 0.49 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.42 0.42 0.39 0.94 0.72 0.56 0.71 0.69 0.55 0.67 0.38 0.49 0.42 0.49 0.48 0.47 (28) (6) 7 (10) (15) (3) (18) 9 (3) 3 (6) (6) (7) 995 3,273 574 794 517 821 657 853 5,318 1,004 755 640 903 937 16.6 (38.4) (42.8) 5.3 (19.2) (9.0) (29.9) 1,030 3,272 473 594 436 689 740 (3.4) 0.0 21.4 33.8 18.6 19.2 (11.3) 0.83 0.82 0.75 0.75 0.65 0.60 0.56 0.90 0.95 0.67 0.63 0.66 0.61 0.75 (7) (13) 8 12 (1) (1) (19) 442 1,726 1,341 2,081 127 66 379 1,739 1,769 2,115 139 107 16.5 (0.7) (24.2) (1.6) (9.0) (38.5) 288 1,583 1,185 1,901 98 55 53.4 9.0 13.2 9.5 29.3 20.0 1.79 1.69 1.59 1.55 0.71 0.53 1.52 1.81 1.65 1.59 0.64 0.54 27 (12) (6) (4) 7 (0) 1QFY2014 4QFY2013 % chg (qoq) 1QFY2013 % chg (yoy) As % to avg. assets 1QFY2014 1QFY2013 Chg (bps)

Source: Company, Angel Research

August 28, 2013

Banking | Sector Update

Significant Treasury gains aided other income and bottom-line


During 1QFY2014, the downward movement in bond yields, as expected, resulted in significant treasury gains for all our coverage banks. Treasury income for our coverage banks, on an aggregate basis grew more than four times to `7,210cr as compared to `1,403cr in 1QFY2013 and `3,578cr in 4QFY2013.

Exhibit 8: Significant Treasury gains


Bank Private Banks FEDBK HDFCBK AXSB SIB ICICIBK PSU Banks UCOBK INDBK ANDHBK DENABK VIJAYA CRPBK SBI BOI BOB CANBK UNBK SYNBK ALLBK IDBI CENTBK PNB BOM J&KBK OBC IOB 234 314 286 248 141 285 1,201 524 409 444 239 85 177 143 279 347 58 19 206 388 71 126 105 83 106 124 229 157 288 252 235 42 98 143 143 321 87 84 68 173 228.7 148.8 171.5 198.8 33.4 128.8 424.5 233.1 42.0 76.2 1.7 102.4 80.6 0.0 95.1 8.1 -33.3 -76.9 201.8 124.0 13 22 25 32 20 43 221 100 82 99 55 23 55 47 102 136 24 20 (13) (25) 1,718.3 1,309.9 1,061.4 675.0 615.3 567.8 443.5 421.9 402.1 349.3 334.5 269.6 221.8 204.3 173.5 155.1 139.1 -3.6 89 200 440 52 403 58 65 238 14 93 54.6 207.4 84.7 276.9 333.3 26 67 150 20 (21) 239.2 200.0 192.8 159.0 1QFY2014 4QFY2013 % chg (qoq) 1QFY2013 % chg (yoy)

Source: Company, Angel Research

August 28, 2013

Banking | Sector Update

Asset quality woes aggravate during the quarter; and are unlike to abate as quickly as was expected earlier
Asset quality stress has remained at elevated levels for banks, thereby denting sectors performance and outlook. Slippages for the banking industry have continued to trend northwards for the last couple of years. Until 4QFY2013, there were signs of moderation in pace of asset quality deterioration, as the increase in annualized slippage ratio for overall FY2013 came in 26bp yoy, much lower than the increase of 38bp and 57bp yoy witnessed in 9MFY2013 and 1HFY2013, respectively. In 1QFY2014, asset quality woes have intensified, as annualized slippage rate has surged to 3.7%, a much higher increase of 63bp yoy. Amongst large PSU banks, almost all witnessed a sequential and yoy increase in their quarterly slippage ratios. Large PSU banks, as a segment witnessed annualized slippage ratio of 4.2% as against 3.6%, a year ago. Within the mid-PSU ones, barring JKBK and UCOBK (which managed to lower their annualized slippage ratio by 110-340bp qoq and 20-100bp yoy), most others continued to witness elevated level of slippages and hence witnessed sequential and yoy increase in annualized slippage ratio. Mid PSU banks, as a segment witnessed annualized slippage ratio of 3.7% as against 2.7% in 1QFY2013. Though efforts on recoveries/upgrades front have increased considerably, however, during the quarter most PSU banks reported moderate performance on the recoveries/upgrades front. Elevated slippages coupled with moderate recoveries and upgrades resulted in Gross NPA levels for our coverage PSU banks increasingly sharply by 16.8% qoq and 43.9% yoy. During the quarter, heavy treasury gains aided the banks to provide higher for NPAs and hence their provisioning expenses for our coverage PSU banks increased by 41.5% yoy. However, most of them witnessed sequential drop in provision coverage ratio, as slippages during the quarter were much higher. Banks like, SBI PNB, BOB and CANBK - within the large PSUs and CNTBK, CRPBK, ANDBK and DENABK within the mid PSUs, witnessed much higher decrease in their provisioning coverage ratio compared to others. Higher sequential increase in GNPA levels and lower provision coverage (for most of our coverage banks) resulted in sequentially much higher net NPA levels for PSU banks (increase of 24.0% qoq and 61.6% yoy). Private Banks, on the other hand, though were not spared from asset quality pressures, however they performed relatively much better vis--vis PSU banks on the overall asset quality front. Though private banks witnessed sequential and yoy increase in slippages, however, they also reported healthy recoveries and upgrades performances and as a result the sequential increase in Gross NPA levels for our coverage Pvt. Banks was limited to 5.4% qoq. Going ahead, we believe that the asset quality pressures are unlikely to abate as quickly as were expected earlier. Weakening economic growth environment, persisting burden of high interest servicing costs, significantly higher currency depreciation and its reflection on inflation (which had started moderating otherwise) would ensure that the slippages for the banking sector remain elevated in the near term, as against earlier expectations of moderation by the second half of the current fiscal.

August 28, 2013

Banking | Sector Update

Exhibit 9: Gross NPA trend (%) for the banking* industry


3.90 3.70 3.50 3.30 3.10 2.90 2.70 2.50 2.30 2.10 2.43 2.47 2.40 2.43 2.28 2.73 2.85 2.80 3.09 3.42 3.49 3.32 3.80

Exhibit 10: Net NPA trend (%) for the banking* industry
2.30 2.10 1.90 1.70 1.50 1.30 1.10 0.90 1.08 1.07 1.00 0.99 1.04 1.28 1.36 1.30 1.49 1.74 1.80 1.72 2.09

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

4QFY13

1QFY14

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

4QFY13
2.01 0.53

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *all listed

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *all listed

Exhibit 11: Gross NPA trends (%) Pvt. vs. PSU banks*
4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 2.85 3.34 3.02 2.98 Pvt Banks PSU Banks 3.76 3.87 3.67 4.26

Exhibit 12: Net NPA trends (%) Private vs. PSU banks*
3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 1.07 1.09 1.16 1.47 1.56 1.50 1.73 Pvt Banks PSU Banks 2.47 2.04 2.12

2.45 2.34 2.42 2.35 2.27 2.80 2.70 2.57 2.36 2.33 2.24 2.17

2.01 2.05 2.06 2.00 2.00 1.90

0.50 0.00

0.69

0.56

0.56

0.54

0.54

0.46

0.49

0.54

0.55

0.62

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

4QFY13

1QFY14

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

4QFY13

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *all listed

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *all listed

August 28, 2013

1QFY14

1QFY14

Banking | Sector Update

Exhibit 13: Asset quality woes aggravate in 1QFY2014, as annualized slippage rate inch up to 3.7%
Bank UTDBK CENTBK SBI ALLBK PNB ANDHBK CANBK IOB SYNBK IDBI BOM CRPBK UNBK FEDBK SIB BOI BOB VIJAYA DENABK INDBK OBC UCOBK ICICIBK AXSB J&KBK HDFCBK YESBK Total Cov. PSU Large PSU Mid PSU Pvt. New Pvt. Old Pvt. Total Cov. 1QFY14 7.0 5.6 5.3 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.5 1.4 0.8 NA NA 3.7 4.0 4.2 3.7 1.6 1.5 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.8 1.4 1.2 2.7 4QFY13 6.7 1.9 2.7 9.3 NA 4.3 1.9 5.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 (0.3) 2.0 3.8 2.2 2.7 2.9 1.8 2.8 5.8 3.7 5.3 1.2 0.9 1.9 NA NA 2.9 3.1 2.7 3.9 1.4 1.1 3.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 2.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 qoq (bps) 26 368 256 (407) NA 30 257 (92) 162 143 77 321 85 (102) 58 5 (31) 83 (35) (335) (135) (337) 31 45 (106) NA NA 77 84 145 (23) 27 36 (35) 153 163 217 67 86 66 211 1QFY13 chg (bps) FY2013 FY2012 chg (bps) 9MFY13 9MFY12 chg (bps) 1HFY13 1HFY12 chg (bps) 1.9 3.9 5.0 2.1 3.8 4.0 2.6 2.5 3.4 2.3 3.1 2.9 3.7 3.1 1.3 2.8 1.8 3.3 1.4 1.0 2.5 3.0 1.4 1.1 1.0 NA NA 3.1 3.3 3.6 2.7 1.4 1.3 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.5 1.4 1.0 0.8 1.9 507 166 27 311 89 56 186 170 22 113 (18) 5 (85) (30) 142 (6) 82 (70) 113 141 (15) (102) 17 31 (19) NA NA 63 68 54 94 25 22 42 85 91 63 140 40 35 76 3.9 3.5 3.7 5.3 2.9 3.5 2.5 4.0 2.9 1.8 2.1 1.8 2.2 3.2 1.9 3.0 2.4 2.8 2.0 4.1 2.9 4.5 1.5 1.2 1.4 NA NA 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.4 1.5 1.4 2.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.1 0.8 0.8 1.2 3.7 5.3 3.5 2.4 2.8 3.1 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.4 2.5 3.7 0.8 2.5 1.5 4.2 1.6 2.5 4.1 2.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 NA NA 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0 1.5 1.4 2.6 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.6 27 (179) 15 292 19 46 34 113 21 (19) 28 40 (26) (50) 109 43 88 (146) 36 159 (119) 205 6 (10) 17 NA NA 26 29 23 41 1 (1) 8 26 23 15 36 47 45 62 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.3 2.7 3.6 3.2 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.3 3.0 1.9 3.1 2.2 3.1 1.7 3.5 2.6 4.2 1.5 1.3 1.2 NA NA 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 1.6 1.4 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.8 1.4 3.4 3.4 3.9 1.8 2.1 3.2 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.4 1.2 1.6 2.8 3.8 0.7 3.1 1.2 4.7 1.4 1.5 3.6 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.9 NA NA 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.5 1.5 1.4 2.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 (41) 62 7 216 136 8 54 103 93 (61) 96 88 (46) (81) 117 (9) 96 (160) 27 203 (100) 208 6 3 26 NA NA 38 43 26 73 4 5 (7) 37 36 16 74 44 42 56 2.4 4.4 4.1 4.2 5.0 3.8 2.9 3.9 3.3 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.3 2.4 3.6 1.9 3.6 1.7 2.1 2.4 4.2 1.6 1.3 1.1 NA NA 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.2 1.6 1.5 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.0 1.0 1.7 3.8 2.8 3.8 1.4 1.8 3.7 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.0 1.2 1.5 3.4 3.7 0.7 4.2 1.0 4.4 1.4 1.5 3.9 2.1 1.4 1.1 1.0 NA NA 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.5 1.5 1.3 2.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 (141) 154 39 272 319 10 49 122 87 (13) 113 79 (70) (139) 170 (63) 88 (80) 34 69 (150) 210 23 16 7 NA NA 57 63 56 75 16 20 (18) 54 51 41 71 71 66 101

Aggregate level Slippages

Aggregate level Net Slippages (i.e. slippages minus recoveries and upgrades)

PSU
Large PSU Mid PSU Pvt. New Pvt. Old Pvt.

Source: Company, Angel Research

August 28, 2013

10

Banking | Sector Update

Exhibit 14: Gross and Net NPA levels deteriorate sequentially during the quarter
GNPA(` cr) Bank UTDBK CRPBK BOM ANDHBK CENTBK IDBI BOB DENABK ALLBK SYNBK SBI CANBK HDFCBK SIB IOB UNBK PNB YESBK BOI VIJAYA INDBK ICICIBK AXSB J&KBK OBC UCOBK FEDBK 1QFY14 4,002 2,749 1,500 4,748 10,529 7,959 9,763 1,757 6,164 3,554 60,891 7,329 2,719 493 7,432 7,093 15,091 105 9,413 1,645 3,723 10,009 2,490 665 4,303 7,178 1,483 4QFY13 2,964 2,048 1,138 3,714 8,456 6,450 7,983 1,452 5,137 2,979 51,189 6,260 2,335 434 6,608 6,314 13,466 94 8,765 1,533 3,565 9,608 2,393 644 4,184 7,130 1,554 qoq (%) 35.0 34.2 31.8 27.8 24.5 23.4 22.3 21.0 20.0 19.3 19.0 17.1 16.5 13.5 12.5 12.3 12.1 11.2 7.4 7.3 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.4 2.8 0.7 (4.6) 1QFY14 2,700 1,900 656 3,212 6,527 3,872 5,441 1,114 4,922 1,759 29,990 6,209 689 348 4,580 3,883 9,060 12 6,409 977 2,486 2,463 790 56 2,936 3,939 374 NNPA(` cr) 4QFY13 1,970 1,411 393 2,409 4,988 3,100 4,192 917 4,127 1,125 21,956 5,278 469 250 4,027 3,353 7,237 7 5,947 910 2,384 2,231 704 55 2,903 4,069 432 qoq (%) 37.0 34.7 66.9 33.3 30.9 24.9 29.8 21.5 19.3 56.4 36.6 17.6 46.9 39.6 13.7 15.8 25.2 72.8 7.8 7.4 4.3 10.4 12.2 1.5 1.2 (3.2) (13.5) 1QFY14 NA 56.8 76.5 45.0 42.5 68.0 63.6 66.1 48.2 76.8 60.6 58.2 74.7 57.9 58.7 63.4 54.7 88.5 61.0 67.3 61.3 75.4 68.3 94.0 63.9 54.8 74.8 PCR (%) 4QFY13 62.5 62.1 83.7 49.6 47.8 70.8 68.2 69.6 50.0 83.4 66.6 61.4 79.9 53.2 58.9 65.2 58.8 92.6 60.9 68.3 60.1 76.8 70.6 94.0 63.0 52.1 72.2 qoq (%) NA (527) (718) (455) (529) (286) (460) (344) (182) (666) (598) (317) (525) 470 (20) (178) (416) (410) 5 (103) 111 (139) (230) 88 267 261

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 15: Aggregate gross NPA levelsPrivate Banks*


Bank (` cr) Pvt. New Pvt. Old Total 1QFY14 16,824 5,338 22,162 4QFY13 15,646 4,711 20,357 1QFY13 15,154 4,255 19,409 %yoy 11.0 25.4 14.2 %qoq 7.5 13.3 8.9

Exhibit 16: Aggregate gross NPA levels PSU Banks*


Bank (` cr) PSU Large PSU Mid Total 1QFY14 124,320 61,714 186,033 4QFY13 106,377 53,089 159,466 1QFY13 91,134 38,400 129,533 %yoy 36.4 60.7 43.6 %qoq 16.9 16.2 16.7

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *all listed

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *all listed

Exhibit 17: Aggregate net NPA levels Private Banks*


Bank (` cr) Pvt. New Pvt. Old Total 1QFY14 5,960 2,326 8,285 4QFY13 3,859 1,867 5,726 1QFY13 1,701 1,300 3,001 %yoy 250.4 78.8 176.1 %qoq 54.4 24.5 44.7

Exhibit 18: Aggregate net NPA levels PSU Banks*


Bank (` cr) PSU Large PSU Mid Total 1QFY14 68,769 39,011 107,780 4QFY13 54,565 32,798 87,363 1QFY13 45,482 21,605 67,087 %yoy 51.2 80.6 60.7 %qoq 26.0 18.9 23.4

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *all listed

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *all listed

August 28, 2013

11

Banking | Sector Update

Incremental restructuring remained high during 1QFY2014


During 1QFY2014, fresh addition to the restructuring book for banks remained elevated. Sectors like infrastructure (partly discom restructuring under FRP), textiles, and iron & steel contributed a larger chunk of incremental restructuring during the quarter. Amongst our coverage, PSU banks like SBI, CENTBK, PNB, UCOBK, BOB, and CANBK witnessed the highest restructuring during the quarter. Corporate debt restructuring (CDR) referrals have also risen significantly over the last several quarters, closely tracking the deteriorating economic growth environment. Under CDR mechanism, fresh approvals of around `21,000cr in 1QFY2014 (in case the implementation is delayed for any reason) and the pending cases of around `42,000cr (only those which are approved and implemented during the quarter), would add to the restructuring book of participating banks during the quarter. As indicated by their Managements, the restructuring pipeline appears sizable for banks like SBI (~`10,000cr over next few quarters), CANBK (~`5,000cr), UNBK (~`5,000cr, which includes SEB restructuring worth `2,300cr), BOB (~`2,000cr), VIJYBK (~`3,500cr, which includes SEB restructuring worth `3,000cr), ANDBK (`3,300cr which includes discom worth `2,000cr), ALBK (~`1,500cr) and OBC (`1,400cr).

Exhibit 19: CDR Snapshot


Year (` cr) FY10 FY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 FY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 FY13 1QFY14 Total
Source: CDR India, Angel Research

Referred No. of cases 31 49 18 18 23 28 87 41 33 25 31 130 27 549 Additions 20,175 22,614 4,595 21,095 19,187 23,012 67,889 20,528 18,907 20,957 31,256 91,648 39,370 337,511

Approved No. of cases 31 27 10 7 17 16 50 17 18 35 39 109 14 415 Additions 17,763 6,615 8,141 2,095 21,364 8,001 39,601 17,957 18,925 24,581 17,035 78,498 21,266 250,279

August 28, 2013

12

Banking | Sector Update

Exhibit 20: Restructuring book as of 1QFY2014


Bank CNTBK PNB IOB ALBK DENABK ANDBK INDBK OBC* IDBI CANBK BOB VIJBK UCOBK* UTDBK CRPBK UNBK SYNDBK FEDBK BOI* SIB JKBK SBI AXSB ICICIBK YESBK* HDFCBK Restructured book (` cr) 1QFY2014 25,794 34,154 18,356 13,595 6,538 9,847 10,020 10,268 14,251 19,884 25,155 5,000 9,717 4,781 7,887 13,235 9,657 2,500 16,231 1,540 1,688 44,811 4,211 5,915 140 517 4QFY2013 22,681 32,143 18,050 14,875 5,423 9,692 9,707 9,935 16,243 18,113 22,617 4,636 8,743 4,555 7,676 11,626 9,126 2,054 16,353 1,641 1,490 43,111 4,368 5,315 144 479 Ch.qoq (%) 13.7 6.3 1.7 (8.6) 20.6 1.6 3.2 3.4 (12.3) 9.8 11.2 7.9 11.1 5.0 2.7 13.8 5.8 21.7 (0.7) (6.2) 13.2 3.9 (3.6) 11.3 (3.3) 7.9 % to total adv 14.8 11.2 11.0 10.5 10.1 9.8 9.2 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.8 7.4 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.1 5.3 4.9 4.3 4.2 2.1 2.0 0.3 0.2

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note:*standard restructuring book

August 28, 2013

13

Banking | Sector Update

Divergence in Earnings continues - New Private Banks deliver strong performance, while PSUs and old private banks report weak performance
Over the last few years, PSU banks have continuously lost profit market share (both on reported profit as well as on profit adjusted for increase in net NPAs) within our coverage. This could be primarily attributed to their relatively high exposure to overleveraged companies in sensitive sectors, whose financials have bore the most severe brunt of slowing economic growth and persisting burden of elevated interest servicing costs. As far as reported profit is concerned, the market share for PSU banks have noticeably declined from 77% in FY2010 to 68% in FY2013, however, the decline is much sharper in case of profit adjusted for increase in net NPAs, where PSU banks have witnessed market share erosion of ~25%, from 71% in FY2010 to 47% in FY2013. In 1QFY2014, PSU banks, on an aggregate basis, have reported earnings of `12,053cr, however, have also witnessed `19,876cr increase in net NPA levels during the quarter, thereby leading to loss of `7,824cr, on an adjusted basis.

Exhibit 21: Profit market share trends for our coverage Banks PSU Banks losing significantly
Banks PSU banks Mid Large Private Banks Old New Market share PSU Banks (%) Mid Large Private Banks (%) old new 77 26 51 23 1 22 75 26 49 25 2 24 72 23 49 28 2 26 68 21 47 32 2 31 66 21 46 34 1 33 71 23 48 29 2 28 70 24 45 30 2 29 58 13 45 42 3 39 47 6 41 53 2 51 (346) (103) (243) 246 8 238 Reported Profit FY2010 35,974 11,995 23,980 10,664 698 9,966 FY2011 41,390 14,205 27,186 14,072 879 13,193 FY2012 46,240 14,863 31,377 18,030 1,178 16,852 FY2013 47,620 14,625 32,995 22,872 1,340 21,532 1QFY14 12,053 3,745 8,308 6,148 221 5,928 Profit adjusted for increase in Net NPAs FY2010 27,852 9,028 18,824 11,561 710 10,851 FY2011 35,610 12,524 23,086 15,554 819 14,735 FY2012 25,420 5,906 19,515 18,425 1,154 17,272 FY2013 19,114 2,388 16,726 21,759 934 20,825 1QFY14 (7,824) (2,332) (5,491) 5,565 180 5,385

Source: Company, Angel Research

During 1QFY2014, New Private Banks delivered a strong earnings growth of 28.3% yoy. On the other hand, PSU and old Private Banks reported a weak performance, primarily marred by elevated asset quality pressures and slower growth. During the quarter, PSU banks posted a bottom-line decline of 7.4% yoy (within which midPSUs reported higher earnings de-growth of 12.2% as against 4.9% for larger ones), while old private banks reported largely flat performance during the quarter. On the NII front, while new Private Banks reported a strong performance with growth of 26.8% yoy, old Private Banks too witnessed a healthy growth of 16.6% yoy. Affected by elevated asset quality pressures, PSU banks reported a modest NII growth of 7.0% yoy. During the quarter, a favorable yield movement aided almost all banks to book heavy treasury gains and hence other income growth during the quarter came in at
August 28, 2013

14

Banking | Sector Update

a substantial 49.5% yoy for PSU banks and 38.9% yoy for Private Banks. Despite a moderate NII performance, strong other income growth (largely on back of heavy treasury gains) aided PSU banks, both mid and large, to report operating income growth of 22.0% and 14.1%, yoy respectively. On the operating income front, private banks reported a strong performance with a growth of 29.8% yoy. Apart from the impending wage revision, which all PSU banks continued to provide during the quarter, unlike other PSU banks, SBI also provided for higher retirement benefits on account of change in longevity assumptions (`600cr during the quarter, which is to continue at same pace over the next three quarters). As a result, operating expenses grew by 25.6% and 19.8% yoy, respectively for large PSU banks and mid-PSU banks. Consequently, the operating profit grew at a modest pace of 5.6% yoy for large PSU banks, while the same grew at a much higher pace of 23.8% yoy for mid-PSU ones. Persistent asset quality stress (evident in 43.6% yoy increase in gross NPA levels of PSU banks), resulted in a 40.7% yoy increase in provisioning expenses for PSU banks and hence, earnings for these banks declined by 4.7% yoy.

Exhibit 22: Large PSU banks P&L


Parameter (` cr) NII Other Income Operating Income Operating Expenses Pre provision profit Provisions PBT Tax Net Profit 1QFY14 4QFY13 26,221 10,939 37,160 17,392 19,768 8,072 11,696 3,388 8,308 25,657 12,034 37,692 17,883 19,809 % chg % chg 1QFY13 (qoq) (yoy) 2.2 (9.1) (1.4) (2.7) (0.2) 24,591 7,977 32,569 13,847 18,722 6,299 12,423 3,685 8,738 6.6 37.1 14.1 25.6 5.6 28.2 (5.9) (8.1) (4.9)

Exhibit 23: Mid-PSU* banks P&L


Parameter (` cr) NII Other Income Operating Income Operating Expenses Pre provision profit Provisions PBT Tax Net Profit 1QFY14 4QFY13 14,772 6,238 21,010 9,100 11,910 6,402 5,507 1,641 3,867 14,362 5,985 20,347 9,747 10,600 7,418 3,182 3,311 % chg 1QFY13 (qoq) 2.9 4.2 3.3 (6.6) 12.4 (13.7) 73.1 16.8 13,707 3,509 17,216 7,594 9,622 3,987 5,635 1,230 4,406 % chg (yoy) 7.8 77.8 22.0 19.8 23.8 60.6 (2.3) 33.4 (12.2)

11,045 (26.9) 8,764 479 8,285 33.5 607.0 0.3

(128) (1,379.2)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:* all excl. SBI associate banks

On the other hand, Private Banks registered a 20.8% yoy increase in operating expenses and hence, operating profit for them grew at a much higher pace of 37.5% yoy (37.0% yoy and 41.2% yoy for new and old private banks, respectively). On the asset quality front, new Private Banks were not sparred from asset quality pressures; however, they have faced relatively much lower pressures compared to old Private banks. Gross NPA levels for new Private Banks increased by 11.0% yoy, while for older ones it increased by a much higher 25.4% yoy. As a result, the provisioning expenses for new Private Banks during the quarter witnessed an increase of 67.7% yoy, while for older Private Banks it more than tripled on a yoy basis. Overall, on the earnings front, while new private banks reported a strong growth of 28.3% yoy, older ones reported flat earnings performances for the quarter.

August 28, 2013

15

Banking | Sector Update

Exhibit 24: New Private banks P&L


Parameter (` cr) NII Other Income Operating Income Operating Expenses Pre provision profit Provisions PBT Tax Net Profit % chg % chg 1QFY14 4QFY13 1QFY13 (qoq) (yoy)

Exhibit 25: Old Private banks* P&L


Parameter (` cr) NII Other Income Operating Income Operating Expenses Pre provision profit Provisions PBT Tax Net Profit 1QFY14 4QFY13 % chg 1QFY13 (qoq) % chg (yoy)

13,360 7,566 20,926 8,862 12,064 2,230 9,834 3,168 6,665

12,966 7,130 20,096 8,899 11,197 1,573 9,625 2,770 6,855

3.0 6.1 4.1 (0.4) 7.7 41.8 2.2 14.4 (2.8)

10,534 5,593 16,127 7,321 8,806 1,330 7,476 2,281 5,195

26.8 35.3 29.8 21.0 37.0 67.7 31.5 38.9 28.3

2,295 1,199 3,494 1,631 1,863 741 1,122 350 772

2,208 1,023 3,231 1,670 1,561 472 1,089 154 934

3.9 17.2 8.1 (2.3) 19.4 56.9 3.1 127.0 (17.4)

1,968 719 2,687 1,367 1,320 207 1,113 334 779

16.6 66.7 30.0 19.3 41.2 258.1 0.9 5.0 (0.9)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Company, Angel Research, *all listed

Exhibit 26: Advances* growth (%)


Banks-Type Large PSU Mid PSU New Pvt. Old Pvt. Grand Total 1QFY14 4QFY13 % chg (qoq) 1QFY13 % chg (yoy)

Exhibit 27: Deposits* growth (%)


Banks-Type Large PSU Mid PSU New Pvt. Old Pvt. Grand Total SBM and SBT 1QFY14 4QFY13 % chg (qoq) 1QFY13 % chg (yoy)

2,623,880 1,585,449 903,972 195,443 5,308,743

2,618,480 1,565,991 866,725 195,907 5,247,103

0.2 1.2 4.3 (0.2) 1.2

2,357,536 1,377,491 771,011 169,684 4,675,722

11.3 15.1 17.2 15.2 13.5

3,373,014 2,011,931 1,006,280 264,761 6,655,985

3,296,757 1,998,279 1,013,575 262,208 6,570,819

2.3 0.7 (0.7) 1.0 1.3

2,958,479 1,741,178 884,872 227,115 5,811,644

14.0 15.6 13.7 16.6 14.5

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:* all listed excl. DHB, PSB, SBM, SBT

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:* all listed excl. DHB, PSB, UTDBK,

Exhibit 28: DuPont analysis for our coverage universe


Pvt. New Parameter NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes ROA Leverage ROE FY12 3.1 0.4 2.7 (0.0) 2.7 1.8 4.4 2.3 2.2 0.7 1.5 10.9 16.5 FY13 3.3 0.4 2.9 0.1 3.0 1.7 4.6 2.3 2.4 0.7 1.6 10.7 17.6 FY14E 3.4 0.4 3.0 0.1 3.1 1.6 4.7 2.3 2.5 0.8 1.7 10.6 17.9 FY15E 3.5 0.4 3.0 0.0 3.1 1.6 4.7 2.2 2.5 0.8 1.7 11.1 18.6 FY12 2.8 0.8 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.9 2.9 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.9 18.6 17.2 PSU Large FY13 2.6 0.8 1.8 0.11 1.9 0.8 2.7 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.9 17.4 14.9 FY14E 2.5 0.8 1.8 0.1 1.9 0.8 2.7 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.7 17.4 12.2 FY15E 2.6 0.6 1.9 0.0 2.0 0.8 2.8 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.8 17.8 13.8 FY12 2.7 0.9 1.7 0.1 1.8 0.6 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.8 21.0 15.9 PSU Mid FY13 2.5 1.0 1.5 0.14 1.6 0.6 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.6 20.5 13.2 FY14E 2.4 0.9 1.5 0.1 1.6 0.6 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.5 20.7 10.8 FY15E 2.4 0.7 1.7 0.0 1.8 0.6 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.6 21.1 12.5

Source: Company, Angel Research

August 28, 2013

16

Banking | Sector Update

MTM losses lower post RBIs relaxation; however still remain significant to affect overall earnings
Recent series of RBI measures to tighten domestic liquidity so as to check exchange rate volatility has led to significant surge in interest rates across the yield curve. Since July 15, 2013 (when first such measures were announced) to till date, interest rates across the yield curve have inched up considerably (higher for shorter maturities, thereby inverting the yield curve). While CD/CP rates are considerably higher by 250-350bp, both sovereign and corporate bond yields across various maturity buckets have increased anywhere between 100-125bp. Indian banks, having realized significant treasury gains in 1QFY2014, are sitting on heavy MTM losses in their AFS/HFT investment book. As a one off measure, the RBI has recently allowed banks to move SLR securities to HTM from AFS/HFT category upto the limit of 24.5%, at cost or market value as at the end of July 15, 2013, whichever is lower. The move is positive primarily for State Bank of India (SBI), Canara Bank and OBC, as they have had higher headroom available within the 24.5% limit. Moreover, the RBI also allowed banks to spread over the remaining MTM loss over the next three quarters. Considering AFS positioning as of June 30, 2013 along with RBI relaxations, still PSU banks like SBI, Canara Bank, PNB, Corporation Bank and Union Bank are expected to witness significant MTM losses during 2QFY2014.

Exhibit 29: CP/CD rates inched up after RBI measures


(%) 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 30-Jun-13 15-Jul-13 27-Aug-13

Exhibit 30: Bond yields too inched up


(%) 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 30-Jun-13 15-Jul-13 27-Aug-13

8.34 7.93 12.13

8.42 8.44 12.28

8.82 8.86 11.71

7.94 7.45 10.78

7.99 8.02 11.01

8.20 8.32 10.53

8.69 8.92 9.93

8.62 8.83 9.73

7.46 7.50 9.84

7.70 7.84 9.12


Gsec 5Yr

7.0 6.0

6.0 CP 1M CP 3M CP 12M CD 1M CD 3M CD 12M AAA 1 Yr AAA 5 Yr AAA 10 Yr Gsec 1Yr Gsec 10Yr

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

August 28, 2013

7.46 7.56 8.59

7.0

8.73 8.92 10.75

17

Banking | Sector Update

Exhibit 31: MTM losses for banks post RBI relaxations


HTM (` cr) % of Dep$ AFS (` cr) % of Dep$ Headroom Avail. (24.5 HTM, in %) 7.3 1.5 5.5 1.3 3.1 NA 1.8 2.7 5.5 9.9 1.2 NA NA 4.4 NA 4.8 Headroom as % of AFS book 40.5 21.6 41.8 14.1 26.2 NA 11.2 23.4 88.3 73.8 19.7 NA NA 39.4 NA 35.2 Mod. Duration MTM losses @100bp movement post RBI relaxations (` cr) 1,547 511 417 558 462 NA 878 1,628 361 40 281 665 474 NA 171 NA 303 230 NA 3,522 Qtrly MTM impact, as RBI allowed spreading of MTM losses 516 170 139 186 154 NA 293 543 120 13 94 222 158 NA 57 NA 101 77 NA 1,174

Bank

CANBK IOB ALLBK CENTBK BOI BOM CRPBK PNB DENABK SYNBK OBC UNBK BOB ANDHBK JKBK FEDBK INDBK IDBI VIJAYA SBI

65,551 45,086 34,197 53,485 67,575 NA 37,000 86,525 24,722 34,676 25,757 68,733 75,433 NA 15,700 NA 30,074 67,300 NA 233,000

17.2 23.0 19.0 23.2 21.4 NA 22.7 21.8 26.2 19.0 14.6 25.3 23.3 NA 26.8 NA 20.1 36.7 NA 19.7

69,295 13,836 23,807 21,659 37,508 6,686 26,177 45,626 6,825 11,369 23,609 22,864 20,332 8,000 6,033 3,000 16,690 17,721 11,323 160,000

18.1 7.1 13.2 9.4 11.9 6.3 16.1 11.5 7.2 6.2 13.4 8.4 6.3 6.4 10.3 5.3 11.2 9.7 10.7 13.5

3.75 4.71 3.01 3.00 1.67 3.00 3.78 4.66 5.29 3.00 4.54 2.91 2.90 3.00 2.84 2.76 3.00 1.30 2.76 3.40

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *due to unavailability of data regarding AFS duration, conservatively assumed it to be 3 years,# from the closing 10 year G sec yields on June 30, 2013, $due to unavailability of data regarding NDTL uniformly for all our coverage banks, we have used total deposits for all and domestic deposits for BOB, SBI and BOI, hence the actual headroom to banks might be lower than depicted here

Capital Adequacy low for many PSU banks


Tier-I CAR, under Basel-III remains low for many PSU banks. As of 1QFY2014, amongst our coverage, Bank of Maharashtra, Dena Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, IDBI Bank, Central Bank, Corporation Bank and Allahabad Bank had the lowest tierI CAR in the range of 6.8-7.8%. Moreover, PSU banks like UCO Bank, Vijaya Bank, Central Bank, United Bank, Bank of Maharashtra (BOM), Indian Bank and Union Bank also have sizeable preference capital, implying that core equity tier-I for these banks would be even lower. The government has budgeted `14,000cr for capital infusion in PSU banks for the current fiscal. Most of the PSU banks (SBI, BOM, Dena Bank, Indian Overseas Bank (IOB), and Syndicate Bank to name a few) have submitted requests for capital infusion already. The government is likely to finalize allocation of budget amount within these banks in the next few months. However, all PSU banks are now trading much below their book value, implying significant book-dilution for existing shareholders if the capital is to be infused now at current valuations. There is also a need to consider dividend payout policy and capital raising via rights issue for PSU banks, as healthy dividend payout by these banks coupled with capital infusion on preferential basis by the government at below book valuations is detrimental to the interests of existing shareholders.
August 28, 2013

18

Banking | Sector Update

Exhibit 32: Tier-I and Total CRAR under Basel-III, as of 1QFY2014


Bank BOM DENABK IOB IDBIBK CNTBK CRPBK ALBK UNBK SYNDBK OBC UCOBK SBI CANBK Tier-I 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.8 8.1 8.1 8.7 8.7 8.8 9.0 CRAR 10.8 10.6 10.9 12.6 11.3 11.3 10.6 9.9 11.5 11.0 13.4 11.9 11.4 Bank PNB YESBK HDFCBK JKBK ICICIBK AXSB BOB INBK ANDBK UTDBK VIJBK BOI SIB Tier-I 9.1 9.5 10.5 11.7 12.1 12.3 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CRAR 11.8 15.4 15.5 13.6 17.4 16.4 12.5 11.6 11.2 10.8 10.6 10.4 NA

Source: Company, Angel Research

Outlook and Valuation


Elevated interest rates, weakening growth, and a volatile currency would ensure that the earnings pressures for Indian banks will increase here on. PSU banks, apart from the cyclical headwinds mentioned above, also face structural challenges in terms of a) low capital adequacy (for many of them; which increases the risk of book dilutive capital raising and hurt growth prospects), and b) higher competitive intensity (not only loss of deposits and credit market share, but also of profitability - as current credit cycle evidently highlights adverse asset selection on part of PSUs and superior selection by private banks in the past, which is reflecting in their performance now). Although valuations for all of them are below their historic lows, their fundamental investment case appears weak enough to avoid them, until clarity emerges on macro front. Overall, we have a cautious stance on the sector and would recommend staying with the defensives in the near term. After the recent correction in prices, HDFC Bank becomes a Buy for us. We like ICICI Bank and Axis Bank, which in our view, offers value over a medium to long term perspective, though we do not rule the possibilities of these stocks undershooting the fair value estimates in the near term, given the fragile macro environment.

August 28, 2013

19

Banking | Sector Update

Exhibit 33: Recommendation summary


Company AxisBk FedBk HDFCBk ICICIBk* SIB YesBk AllBk AndhBk BOB BOI BOM CanBk CentBk CorpBk DenaBk IDBI# IndBk IOB J&KBk OBC PNB SBI* SynBk UcoBk UnionBk UtdBk VijBk Reco. Buy Neutral Buy Buy Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral CMP (`) 839 257 562 797 19 226 67 50 445 131 37 195 50 252 43 57 63 39 1,053 126 435 1,498 65 51 100 30 34 Tgt. price (`) 1,023 692 951 Upside (%) 22 23 19 FY2015E P/ABV (x) 0.9 0.6 2.6 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 FY2015E Tgt. P/ABV (x) 1.1 3.3 1.4 FY2015E P/E (x) 5.3 4.9 12.5 8.2 4.6 4.6 2.2 3.0 3.6 2.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.6 2.0 2.6 1.9 2.5 5.2 2.4 2.6 6.6 2.8 3.3 2.5 1.5 3.8 FY2013-15E EPS CAGR (%) 19.1 2.9 26.3 15.8 5.7 16.9 12.6 (15.1) 8.3 16.2 5.4 (3.4) 40.1 2.3 (3.3) 25.1 (4.2) 57.5 (3.5) 7.4 10.8 4.7 (16.0) 66.4 6.2 54.6 (0.4) FY2015E RoA (%) 1.6 1.0 1.9 1.6 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 FY2015E RoE (%) 18.1 12.3 22.8 15.4 16.2 22.8 12.4 10.0 14.2 13.9 14.1 10.4 12.8 13.5 13.2 13.3 12.4 10.5 16.3 11.1 15.7 13.9 12.8 13.5 13.4 14.7 9.8

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF

August 28, 2013

20

Banking | Sector Update

Banking indicators watch


Exhibit 34: Credit and deposit growth trends
30.0 25.0 20.0 Credit growth (%) Deposit growth (%)

Exhibit 35: Investment-Deposit ratio


Credit/Deposit (%) 80.0 78.0 76.0 Investment/Deposit (%) - RHS 32.0 31.0 30.0 29.0 74.0 72.0
Dec-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Mar-12 Apr-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Feb-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Jul-12 May-12 May-13

15.0 10.0 5.0

28.0 27.0
Jul-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Aug-13 Jul-13

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Jan-13

Oct-09

Oct-10

Oct-11

Oct-12

Apr-13

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Exhibit 36: CP rates have gone up considerably...


(%) 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0
Dec-12 Jun-13 Jan-13 Aug-12 Aug-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Oct-12 Feb-13 Nov-12 Sep-12 Jul-13 May-13

Exhibit 37: ...similar to CD rates


(%) 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0
Dec-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Oct-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 Sep-12 Apr-13 May-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jun-13

CP 3M

CP 12M

CD 3M

CD 12M

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 38: RBI limits LAF borrowings...


(` bn) 500

Exhibit 39: ...resulting in higher MSF borrowings @ 10.25%


(` bn) -

(500) (1,000) (1,500) (2,000) (2,500)


Sep-12 Feb-13 May-13 Dec-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Mar-13 Nov-12 Aug-13 Oct-12 Apr-13

(100) (200) (300) (400) (500) (600) (700)


Dec-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Sep-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Nov-12 Oct-12 Apr-13

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Source: RBI, Angel Research

August 28, 2013

21

Banking | Sector Update

Exhibit 40: Forex reserves trends


US$ Bns 340 320 300 280 260 240

Exhibit 41: G-Sec yields spread vs. Repo rate


4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 (1.00) (2.00) 2 0 6 4 G sec 1 yr and 10 yr yield spread (%) Repo Rate (%) - RHS 10 8

Feb-13

Feb-13

Sep-12

Sep-12

May-13

Dec-12

Jun-13

Jan-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Mar-13

Nov-12

Nov-12

Aug-13

Apr-13

Oct-12

Apr-13

(3.00)

Dec-06

Mar-08

Aug-08

Jan-09

Jun-09

Apr-10

Nov-09

Nov-11

Oct-05

Feb-06

Oct-07

Feb-11

Apr-12

Sep-10

Sep-12

Feb-13

Jul-06

Jul-11

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research;

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Sectoral and Industry-wise distribution of credit


Exhibit 42: Industry and Personal loans aids credit growth
Sector Agriculture Industry - Micro & Small - Medium - Large Services Personal Loans - Housing - Vehicle Non-food Credit
Source: RBI, Angel Research

June 2012 (` cr) 550,808 2,000,577 241,564 117,787 1,641,226 1,043,374 808,484 414,357 93,981 4,403,243 % of total 12.5 45.4 5.5 2.7 37.3 23.7 18.4 9.4 2.1 100.0 (` cr) 605,140 2,282,018 292,753 132,112 1,857,154 1,169,882 934,773 484,899 116,705 4,991,813

May-07

June 2013 % of total 12.1 45.7 5.9 2.6 37.2 23.4 18.7 9.7 2.3 100.0 % chg (yoy) 9.9 14.1 21.2 12.2 13.2 12.1 15.6 17.0 24.2 13.4

Exhibit 43: Strong growth in Food processing, Gems & Jewelry


Industry Infrastructure Metals Textiles Engineering Chemicals Food Processing Oil and Gas Construction Vehicles Gems & Jewelry Other Industries Total
Source: RBI, Angel Research

June 2012 (` cr) 648,830 266,412 161,518 116,531 126,885 92,796 62,036 49,145 56,049 53,608 366,766 2,000,577 % of total 32.4 13.3 8.1 5.8 6.3 4.6 3.1 2.5 2.8 2.7 18.3 100.0 (` cr) 772,721 321,912 185,150 133,549 148,029 124,559 56,610 53,835 60,815 68,574 356,263 2,282,018

June 2013 % of total 33.9 14.1 8.1 5.9 6.5 5.5 2.5 2.4 2.7 3.0 15.6 100.0 % chg (yoy) 19.1 20.8 14.6 14.6 16.7 34.2 (8.7) 9.5 8.5 27.9 (2.9) 14.1

August 28, 2013

Jul-13

22

Banking | Sector Update

Valuation watch
Exhibit 44: Private banks* P/ABV trend
4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 1.20 0.80 0.40 1.60 P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile 2.00

Exhibit 45: Public sector banks P/ABV trend


P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile

Feb-10

Jul-09

May-08

Dec-08

Sep-10

Jun-05

Jun-12

Jan-06

Jan-13

Aug-06

Mar-07

Nov-04

Nov-11

Aug-13

Oct-07

Apr-11

Dec-06

Aug-08

Dec-11

Jan-09

Jun-09

Mar-08

Nov-04

Nov-09

May-07

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Pvt. banks under our coverage

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 46: New private* banks P/ABV trend


4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile

Exhibit 47: Large public sector banks P/ABV trend


P/ABV 2.10 1.80 1.50 1.20 0.90 0.60 Median 15th percentile 85th percentile

Feb-10

Jul-09

May-08

Dec-08

Sep-10

Jun-05

Jun-12

Jan-06

Jan-13

Aug-06

Mar-07

Nov-04

Nov-11

Aug-13

Oct-07

Apr-11

Dec-06

Aug-08

Dec-11

Jan-09

Jun-09

May-12

Mar-13 Mar-13 Mar-13

Mar-08

Nov-04

Nov-09

May-07

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *New Pvt. banks under our coverage

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 48: Old private* banks P/ABV trend


1.80 1.50 1.20 0.90 0.60 0.30 P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile

Exhibit 49: Mid-cap* public sector banks P/ABV trend


P/ABV 1.80 1.50 1.20 0.90 0.60 0.30 Median 15th percentile 85th percentile

Feb-06

Feb-11

Sep-05

Sep-10

Jul-06

May-07

Jul-11

May-12

Dec-06

Aug-08

Dec-11

Jan-09

Jun-09

Mar-08

Nov-04

Nov-09

Mar-13

Aug-13

Apr-05

Oct-07

Apr-10

Oct-12

Dec-06

Aug-08

Dec-11

Jan-09

Jun-09

May-12

Mar-08

Nov-04

Nov-09

May-07

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Old Pvt. banks under our coverage

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note:*Mid and small PSU banks

August 28, 2013

May-12

23

Aug-13

Apr-05

Oct-07

Apr-10

Feb-06

Feb-11

Sep-05

Sep-10

Oct-12

Jul-06

Jul-11

Aug-13

Apr-05

Oct-07

Apr-10

Feb-06

Feb-11

Sep-05

Sep-10

Oct-12

Jul-06

Jul-11

Aug-13

Apr-05

Oct-07

Apr-10

Feb-06

Feb-11

Sep-05

Sep-10

Oct-12

Jul-06

Jul-11

Banking | Sector Update

Economy watch
Exhibit 50: Quarterly GDP trend
(%) 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 11.4 9.3 7.7 9.5 8.6 9.2 9.9 7.5 6.5 6.0 5.1 5.4 5.2

Exhibit 51: IIP trend


(%) 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 4.7 4.8 (2.0) (0.1) (0.7) (1.0) (0.6) (2.8) (2.2) 2.0 2.5 0.6 3.5 1.9 8.4

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

4QFY13

(4.0)

Feb-13

Sep-12

Jul-12

May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13 Jun-13

Dec-12

Aug-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 52: Monthly WPI inflation trend


(%) 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 8.1 7.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 5.7 4.8 4.6 5.8 4.9

Exhibit 53: Manufacturing and services PMI


60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 Mfg. PMI Services PMI

Feb-13

Sep-12

May-13

Dec-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

Nov-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

46.0

Nov-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

Nov-12

Oct-12

Feb-13

Sep-12

Apr-13

Jul-12

Apr-13

May-12

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Source: Markit, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 54: Exports and imports growth trends


(%) 15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 (3.0) (6.0) (9.0) (12.0) (15.0) Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth

Exhibit 55: Policy rates - RBI


(%) 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00
Dec-12 Dec-12 Aug-12 Jun-13 Mar-13 Nov-12 May-13 Aug-13 Jan-13 Apr-13 Oct-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Sep-12 Feb-13 Apr-13

Repo rate

Reverse Repo rate

Dec-12

Aug-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

Nov-12

Oct-12

Feb-13

Sep-12

Apr-13

Jun-13

May-13

Jul-13

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, Angel Research

August 28, 2013

May-13

CRR

Jul-13

Jun-13

24

Banking | Sector Update

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800

E-mail: [email protected]

Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd., its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd. or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd. has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd. endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd. and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd., nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd. and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

August 28, 2013

25

Banking | Sector Update

Disclosure of Interest Statement


Analyst ownership of the stock AxisBk FedBk HDFCBk ICICIBk SIB YesBk AllBk AndhBk BOB BOI BOM CanBk CentBk CorpBk DenaBk IDBI IndBk IOB J&KBk OBC PNB SBI SynBk UcoBk UnionBk UtdBk VijBk No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock Yes No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No Yes No No No No No Broking relationship with company covered No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Ratings (Returns):

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to -15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

August 28, 2013

26

Banking | Sector Update


6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai- 400 093. Tel: (022) 39357800
Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra Vaibhav Agrawal Bhavesh Chauhan Viral Shah V Srinivasan Yaresh Kothari Ankita Somani Sourabh Taparia Bhupali Gursale Vinay Rachh Amit Patil Twinkle Gosar Tejashwini Kumari Akshay Narang Harshal Patkar Nishant Sharma Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi Meenakshi Chavan Gaurang Tisani Production Team: Tejas Vahalia Dilip Patel Research Editor Production Incharge [email protected] [email protected] VP - Institutional Sales Dealer Dealer [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Head - Derivatives [email protected] Sr. Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] VP-Research, Pharmaceutical VP-Research, Banking Sr. Analyst (Metals & Mining) Sr. Analyst (Infrastructure) Analyst (Cement, FMCG) Analyst (Automobile) Analyst (IT, Telecom) Analyst (Banking) Economist Research Associate Research Associate Research Associate Research Associate Research Associate Research Associate Research Associate [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

CSO & Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 93. Tel: (022) 3083 7700. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd: BSE Cash: INB010996539 / BSE F&O: INF010996539, CDSL Regn. No.: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 2004, PMS Regn. Code: PM/INP000001546, NSE Cash: INB231279838 / NSE F&O: INF231279838 / NSE Currency: INE231279838, MCX Stock Exchange Ltd: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500. Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd.: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn. No.: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn. No.: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302.

August 28, 2013

27

You might also like