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IN THIS ISSUE
No. 40,529
Business 17
Crossword 16
Culture 13
Fashion 12
Sports 15
Views 6
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VIEWS
Bill Keller
What is happening in Turkey is the
latest in a series of revolts arising from
the middle class the urban, educated
haves who are the beneficiaries of the
regimes they nowreject. PAGE 6
Paul Krugman
Theres a nationwide movement in
America to punish the unemployed,
based on the proposition that we can
cure unemployment by making the
jobless even more miserable. PAGE 7
ONLINE
Narratives fromfading cultures
After three decades spent
photographing ancient cultures in
remote parts of the world, Chris Rainier
wants to give indigenous people the
tools to tell their own stories. His Last
Mile Technology Programbrings
digital tools and skills to these isolated
communities. The Lens blog has details,
as well as examples of Mr. Rainiers
own work. lens.blogs.nytimes.com
Ful l cur r ency rat es Page 21
Egypts army gives
Morsi ultimatum
CAIRO
BY DAVIDD. KIRKPATRICK,
KAREEMFAHIMANDBENHUBBARD
Egypts top generals on Monday gave
President Mohamed Morsi 48 hours to
respond to a wave of mass protests de-
manding his ouster, declaring that if he
did not, then the military leaders them-
selves would impose their own road
map to resolve the political crisis.
Their statement, in the formof a com-
muniqu read over state television,
plunged the military back into the cen-
ter of political life just 10 months after it
handed full power to Mr. Morsi as
Egypts first democratically elected
leader.
The communiqu was issued follow-
ing an increasingly violent weekend of
protests by millions of Egyptians angry
with Mr. Morsi and his MuslimBrother-
hood supporters. It came hours after
protesters destroyed the Brotherhoods
headquarters in Cairo.
In tone and delivery, the communiqu
echoed the announcement the Supreme
Council of the Armed Forces issued 28
months ago to oust President Hosni
Mubarak and seize full control of the
state. But the scope and duration of the
militarys latest threat of political inter-
vention and its consequences for
Egypts halting transition to democracy
were not immediately clear, in part
because the generals took pains to em-
phasize their reluctance to take over. It
is also not clear whether civilians will be
included in any next steps.
For Mr. Morsi and his Islamist allies
in the Muslim Brotherhood, however, a
military intervention would be an epic
defeat. It woulddenythemthe chance to
govern Egypt that the Brotherhood had
struggled 80 years to finally win, in
democratic elections, only to see their
prize snatched away after less than a
year.
Weunderstandit as amilitarycoup,
one adviser to Mr. Morsi said, speaking
on condition of anonymity to discuss
confidential deliberations. What form
that will take remains to be seen.
The militarys ultimatum seemed to
leave Mr. Morsi few choices: cut short
his termas president with a resignation
or early elections; share significant
power with a political opponent in a role
such as prime minister; or try to rally
his Islamist supporters to fight back for
power in the streets.
Mr. Morsis adviser said the military
shouldnot assume that the Brotherhood
would accept its ouster without an all-
out battle to defend his democratic vic-
tories. The Brotherhood may not take
this lying down, the adviser said.
Citing the historic circumstance,
the military council said in its statement
that if the demands of the people have
not been met within 48 hours, then the
armed forces would be forced by patri-
otic duty to announce a road map of
measures enforced under the militarys
supervision for the political factions to
settle the crisis.
Just what would meet the demands
of the people, the military did not spe-
cify. The rallying cry of the protests that
precipitated the announcement was the
demand for Mr. Morsis immediate de-
parture.
It remained possible, though, that
manymight accept a less-drastic power-
sharing measure until the election of a
newParliament expectedlater this year,
especially under military oversight.
But the military council also empha-
sized its reluctance to resume political
power. It has made the same disclaimer
at its seizure of power in 2011, but reiter-
ated more vigorously on Monday.
The armed forces will not be party to
the circle of politics or ruling, and the
military refuses to deviate from its as-
signedrole inthe original democratic vi-
sion that flows from the will of the
people, the statement said.
But it also noted that the political
WORLD NEWS
Tracking a deadly newvirus
Adeadly newrespiratory disease has
drawn the attention of scientists from
around the world to Saudi Arabia. PAGE 8
BUSINESS
Euro zone jobless rate at 12.1%
The increase in unemployment in May
underscored worries among
economists that growth would probably
remain too slowto generate large
numbers of jobs anytime soon. PAGE 17
France fines LVMH8 million
LVMHMot Hennessy Louis Vuitton
said it would appeal the decision by
French regulators over the manner in
which it built up a big stake in Hrmes
International. PAGE 17
Nokia buys out Siemens
By acquiring the 50 percent stake in
Nokia Siemens Networks that it does
not already own in a 1.7 billion deal,
Nokia secured ownership of a
profitable business. PAGE 19
Publishers wrap up merger
The newPenguin RandomHouse will
control more than 25 percent of the
English-language consumer book
market, giving it unmatched leverage
against Amazon.com. PAGE 19
Fallout builds over scope of U.S. spying efforts
PARIS
BY STEVEN ERLANGER
The most recent revelations of the enor-
mous scale of spying by the United
States on its allies threatened on Mon-
day to derail negotiations over a free
trade agreement with Europe, sowed in-
creasing disillusionment with President
Barack Obama in European capitals and
heightened concerns that the American
intelligence-gatheringapparatus has be-
come too big for careful oversight.
European lawmakers across the polit-
ical spectrum warned of a loss of confi-
dence in the Obama administration that
would make a free trade deal difficult.
While some of the comments were polit-
ical, even cynical from leaders of coun-
tries that also spy with great energy
against their allies, much of the anger
was also genuine, and it was accompan-
ied by fresh demands for explanations.
Daniel Cohn-Bendit, the Green Party
floor leader, spoke for many when he
said that the European Union must im-
mediately suspend negotiations with
the U.S. over a free trade agreement.
First, he said, we need a deal on data
protection so that something like that
never happens again.
Some of the harshest language came
from President Franois Hollande of
France, who said during a visit in north-
western France that we cannot accept
this kind of behavior between partners
and allies. He said the spying should
immediately stop.
Mr. Hollande suggested that talks on
a new trans-Atlantic trade pact, sched-
uled to start next week, should be
delayed until questions over the spying
issue were resolved and confidence re-
stored. We can only have negotiations,
transactions, in all areas once we have
obtained these guarantees for France,
but that goes for the whole European
Union, and I would say for all partners
of the United States, he said. Terrorism
is real and there are systems that have
to be checked, especially to fight terror-
ism, but I dont think that it is in our em-
bassies or in the European Union that
this threat exists.
Serena, like Roger and Rafael,
falls victimto Wimbledon hex
Surge in shadowbanking
has alarms ringing in China
longer be a surprise, this Wimbledon re-
sumed being weird and wondrous.
With Williams serving at 3-1, 40-15 in
the final set, Lisicki reeled off four
points in a row to break the Americans
serve and momentum. Lisicki pro-
ceeded to hit enough spots and shots
with conviction to bring a halt to Willi-
amss 34-match winning streak, too.
Lisickis 6-2, 1-6, 6-4 upset was the
latest and greatest reminder that no
superstar is safe at the All England Club
this summer. Rafael Nadal lost in the
first round to the 135th-ranked Belgian
Steve Darcis; Roger Federer lost in the CARL COURT/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Serena Williamss title hopes and 34-match winning streak were snapped on Monday.
TENNIS WIMBLEDON, ENGLAND
BY CHRISTOPHER CLAREY
After an early struggle and the loss of
the first set on Monday, Serena Willi-
ams kicked into the gear that has been
too much for any opponent to handle
since March.
Despite Sabine Lisickis powerful
serve and unmistakable gift for grass-
court tennis, Williams reeled off game
after game nine in a row in all to
take clear command of this tricky
fourth-round match.
Then, in a surprise that should no
SHANGHAI
BY DAVID BARBOZA
Text message solicitations began arriv-
ing on the mobile phones of many of
Chinas wealthyseveral days ago, prom-
isingaccess to lucrative wealthmanage-
ment products with yields far above the
governments benchmark savings rate.
One message read: China Mer-
chants Bank will issue a high interest fi-
nancingproduct startingfromJune 28th
to 30th. The product will be 90 days with
a 5.5%interest rate. Please call us now.
A day later came another. Warm re-
minder: The interest rate of yesterdays
product has been raised to 6%. (Product
duration is 90 days). There is limited ac-
cess to this product. First come first
served.
The offers are not coming fromfly-by-
night operators but some of the biggest
Chinese banks. They are raising huge
pools of cash to finance a relatively new
and highly profitable sideline business:
lending it outside the scrutiny of bank
regulators.
The complex way they go about mak-
ing off-the-balance-sheet loans is at the
heart of Chinas $6 trillion shadowbank-
CHINA, PAGE 21
Generals vow to impose
a road map in absence
of an answer to protests
Latest leak prompts allies
to question trans-Atlantic
ties and doubt Obama
EGYPT, PAGE 8
SERENA, PAGE 15
SPYING, PAGE 3
TARA TODRAS-WHITEHILL FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
Army helicopters carrying Egyptian flags hovered near the presidential palace in Cairo on Monday as millions of Egyptians poured into the streets for a second day.
AT N.S.A, A REVEALING JOB DESCRIPTION
As infrastructure analyst, Edward J.
Snowden sought newways to break into
global Web and phone traffic. PAGE 3
RUSSIA PUTS CONDITION ON ASYLUM
President Putin said asylumwould not
be granted unless the publishing of
classified documents was halted. PAGE 3
GIANLUIGI GUERCIA/AFP
Protesters in Cairo on Monday. The mili-
tary gave the president a 48-hour deadline.
Tanzanian welcome Images of Barack Obama adorned the skirts on Monday
of women in Dar es Salaam, where he is visiting amid rising political tension. PAGE 4
Transformed Croatia joins E.U.
The countrys accession shows howthe
desire to join pushed it to make difficult
economic and political changes. PAGE 3
BEN CURTIS/THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
www.dior.com
page two
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their lives, said the broadcaster Mi-
chael Buerk, rehearsing one side of a
debate that is now seizing Britain and
other Western societies.
Britains baby boomers enjoyed a
time of no major war, entirely free
education and health care, Mr. Buerk
said, their lives enriched by ever-
rising house prices and, often, gener-
ous unrepeatable pensions all, its
argued, bought at the expense of future
generations, whose lives will be impov-
erished by paying for our good for-
tune.
Perhaps its a pity that the young
cant visit the past the way they visit
Ibiza, he said, recalling the baby
boomers hardscrabble roots in an era
before widespread foreign travel when
even single-channel black-and-white
television was a luxury.
Now, the near-universal presumption
of ever-expanding horizons the
promise of the Thatcher era has
been supplanted by deficit-driven belt-
tightening set to endure well beyond
initial government forecasts. Austerity
is the new mind-set.
As much of Continental Europe con-
fronts shrinking expectations in the
euro crisis from Athens to Lisbon and
beyond, Britain faces its own bitter
hangover from a credit-fueled decade
of binge-spending and soaring prop-
erty values that came to a shuddering
halt when the financial crisis of 2008
gave the lie to Tony Blairs triumphant
battle cry in 1997: Things can only get
better.
Who makes such bold claims now
when so much economic data fuel
dystopian visions?
Youth unemployment, lower than in
some parts of Southern Europe, still
leaves one in five Britons between the
ages of 16 and 24 out of work. For many,
the notion of job security, certainly jobs
for life, is no more than a faint, mocking
memory. What employers call labor
market flexibility spells joblessness for
others.
The gap between rich and poor is
widening, magnified by austerity mea-
sures likely to cut welfare benefits so
that the greatest hardship falls on
those who are already among the most
deprived rather than among well-
heeled bankers whose greed is widely
blamed here for the economic malaise.
As the economic and especially the
jobs crisis persists and fiscal consolida-
tion takes hold, said the Paris-based
Organization for Economic Coopera-
tion and Development, there is a
growing risk that the most vulnerable
in society will be hit harder as the cost
of the crisis increases.
When my neighbor died, a daughter
took time off from work and a son flew
home from a job in the United States. A
family, in other words, closed ranks, so-
cietys most basic unit rallying to ab-
sorb abrupt loss.
More broadly, though, after decades
of flux when the old social underpin-
nings and taboos have loosened, that
nuclear support may no longer be an
option for many contemplating far
harder times than their elders, beyond
the familiar economic cycles. Is this
just a sad fact of the recession, Mr.
Buerk asked, or is it a greater moral
crime being committed here genera-
tional theft?
E-MAIL: [email protected]
Alan
Cowell
LETTER FROM EUROPE
LONDON A neighbor died the other
day.
One moment, it seemed, he was busy
on his morning routines, dropping off
the newspaper outside a friends first-
floor apartment as he walked the stairs
to his third-floor home.
The next (it seemed to come so
quickly) there was an absence a face
and a greeting that would no longer fig-
ure among the neighborhoods way-
markers, the florist, the car wash guys,
the vicar and his dog.
Of course, the death zone stalks all of
us, from 18-year-old soldiers far from
home in Afghanistan, to toddlers dying
of crib death or abuse or infection.
On the same day that the neighbor
died in the early
hours of organ fail-
ure, Ian Brady, one of
Britains most notori-
ous serial killers,
was permitted to
break a 50-year en-
forced silence to de-
scribe his part in the
1960s Moors murders
of young children as
an existential expe-
rience.
Death has many visages, none of
them enticing.
But the neighbor had grown along-
side a generation that is passing the
baby boomers now approaching termi-
nal years of frailty and need, offering a
legacy so different from the promise
that they inherited from the revival of
Europe after World War II, when
deprivation slowly gave way to better
times. Most Britons have never had it
so good, a patrician prime minister,
Harold Macmillan, told his lower-born
compatriots in 1957 as Britain
struggled to shake off a dreary decade
of rationing and slow recovery.
Of course, there were bumps along
the way the winter of discontent of
the late 1970s, the strikes of the 1980s.
But, in general, deference ceded to self-
confidence. The national trajectory
soared rather than swooned. The ethic
of self-betterment, buttressed by op-
portunity, shielded by a welfare state,
seemed to bear out a pledge of genera-
tional advance: The next generation
would eclipse its forebears.
And those, like my neighbor, whose
lives spanned those years, emerged as
a generation who have had it good all
1913 Greeks and Bulgars Fight
ATHENS After twelve hours fighting, the
last Bulgarian detachment garrisoned in
the barracks near the Church of St. De-
metrius, in Salonica, surrendered this
morning to the Greek troops. As a result
of the fighting on the Greco-Bulgarian
frontier, the Greek authorities had given
the Bulgarian troops still at Salonica one
hour in which to lay down their arms.
The Bulgarians allowed the hours grace
to expire without surrendering, and the
barracks were then attacked by the
Greek troops. The Greek artillery fired
more than two hundred shells against
the barracks and houses occupied by the
Bulgarians, the walls of which were
knocked to pieces. All the streets were
guarded by troops to prevent a panic
among the inhabitants. Several Bulgari-
an officers and soldiers took to flight and
entered trains leaving for Serres, but on
reaching the Greek outposts they were
stopped and sent back to Salonica. After
their surrender the Bulgarian troops
were marched to the harbor amid the
cheers of the populace, and were em-
barked upon a Greek steamship to be
transported to the interior of Greece.
1938 Battle of Gettysburg Refought
GETTYSBURG, PA. The Battle of Gettys-
burg, the turning point of the Civil War,
was fought over again today by 800
white-haired veterans of that historic en-
gagement, who gathered here to partic-
ipate in the ceremonies in commemora-
tion of the seventy-fifth anniversary of
the conflict. With the aid of canes and the
support of friendly arms, the veterans of
the Confederate and Union Armies
hobbled over the battlefield where they
bitterly fought each other in their youth.
FromOak Hill to Devils Den, the old
men inspected what remains of the scene
of the battle the first three days of July,
1863, and rebel yells echoed shrilly over
Wheatfield, Peach Orchard and Bloody
Angle, as they did three-quarters of a
century ago. Secretary of War Harry H.
Woodring, who, with Governor George
H. Earle, addressed the 800 of the 2,000
survivors who were present, said: I
knowI speak for all the people of the land
in welcoming these veterans and extend-
ing to themour love and admiration. . . .
Howwell these soldiers fought is at-
tested by the thousands sleeping today
in this field, where they fell. . . . We can
pay only an inadequate homage to their
memory, courage and sacrifice.
1963 Kennedy Worried on France
WASHI NGTON President Kennedy,
deeply concerned over French Presi-
dent Charles de Gaulles attitudes to-
ward the North-Atlantic Treaty Organi-
zation, has asked whether Allied
dependence on supply lines through
France could be cut to the minimum. Ac-
cording to memoranda reaching here of
conversations the President has had so
far during his trip abroad, Mr. Kennedy
has asked top Allied leaders specifically
why the newmultimillion-dollar NATO
oil pipeline complex to West Germany
could not be moved out of France. It
would presumably be routed through
countries more enthusiastic about
NATOcooperation, such as Belgium.
However, it is reliably understood that
the NATOofficials argued strongly
against such rerouting. It would cost too
much, they said, and France provides
more of an operating base. President
Kennedy left for Europe in a disquieting
atmosphere, the diplomats point out, as
a result of Frances withdrawal only a
fewdays earlier of its Atlantic fleet from
NATOJurisdiction.
LACONIA, NEW HAMPSHIRE
BY ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
Seven months pregnant, at a time when
most expectant couples are stockpiling
diapers and choosing car seats, Rene
Martin was struggling with bigger pur-
chases.
At a prenatal class in March, she was
told about epidural anesthesia and was
given the option of using a birthing tub
during labor. To each offer, she had one
gnawing question: How much is that
going to cost?
Though Ms. Martin, 31, and her hus-
band, Mark Willett, are both profession-
als with health insurance, her current
policy does not cover maternity care. So
the couple had to approach the nine
months that led to the birth of their
daughter in May like an extended shop-
ping trip though the American health
care bazaar, sorting through an array of
maternity services that most often have
no clear price and trying to negotiate
discounts fromhospitals and doctors.
Whenshe became pregnant, Ms. Mar-
tin called her local hospital inquiring
about the price of maternity care; the fi-
nance office at first said it did not know,
and then gave her a range of $4,000 to
$45,000. It was unreal, Ms. Martin
said. I was like, How could you not
knowthis? Youre a hospital.
Midway through her pregnancy, she
fought for a deep discount on a $935 bill
for an ultrasound, arguing that she had
already paid a radiologist $256 to read
the scan, whichtookonly20 minutes of a
technicians time using a machine that
had been bought years ago. She ended
up paying $655. I feel like Imin a used-
car lot, said Ms. Martin, a former art
gallery manager who is starting gradu-
ate school in the autumn.
Like Ms. Martin, plenty of other preg-
nant women are getting sticker shock in
the United States, where charges for de-
livery have about tripled since 1996, ac-
cording to an analysis conducted for
The New York Times by Truven Health
Analytics. Childbirth in the United
States is uniquely expensive, and ma-
ternity and newborn care constitute the
single biggest category of hospital pay-
outs for most commercial insurers and
state Medicaid programs. The cumula-
tive costs of approximately four million
annual births is well over $50 billion.
And though maternity care costs far
less in other developed countries than it
does in the United States, studies show
that their citizens do not have less ac-
cess to care or to high-tech care during
pregnancy than Americans.
Its not primarily that we get a dif-
ferent bundle of services when we have
a baby, said Gerard Anderson, anecon-
omist at the Johns Hopkins School of
Public Health who studies international
health costs. Its that we pay individu-
ally for each service and pay more for
the services we receive.
Those payment incentives for pro-
viders also mean that American women
with normal pregnancies tend to get
more of everything, necessary or not,
from blood tests to ultrasound scans,
said Katy Kozhimannil, a professor at
the University of Minnesota School of
Public Health who studies the cost of
womens health care.
Financially, they suffer the con-
sequences. In 2011, 62 percent of women
in the United States covered by private
plans that were not obtained through an
employer lacked maternity coverage,
like Ms. Martin. But even many women
with coverage are feeling the pinch as
insurers demand higher co-payments
and deductibles and exclude many
pregnancy-related services.
From 2004 to 2010, the prices that in-
surers paid for childbirth one of the
oldest and most universal medical en-
counters rose 49 percent for vaginal
births and 41 percent for Caesarean sec-
tions in the United States, with average
out-of-pocket costs rising fourfold, ac-
cording to a recent report by Truven
that was commissioned by three health
care groups. The average total price
charged for pregnancy and newborn
care was about $30,000 for a vaginal de-
livery and $50,000 for a C-section, with
commercial insurers paying out an av-
erage of $18,329 and $27,866, the report
found.
Women with insurance pay out of
pocket anaverage of $3,400, accordingto
a survey by Childbirth Connection, one
of the groups behind the maternity costs
report. Two decades ago, women typic-
allypaidnothingother thana small fee if
they opted for a private hospital room.
In most other developed countries,
comprehensive maternity care is free or
cheap for all, considered vital to ensur-
ing the health of future generations.
Ireland, for example, guarantees free
maternity care at public hospitals,
though women can opt for private deliv-
eries for a fee. The average price spent
on a normal vaginal delivery tops out at
about $4,000 in Switzerland, France and
the Netherlands, where charges are
limited through a combination of regu-
lation and price setting; mothers pay
little of that cost.
Thechasminpriceis trueeventhough
new mothers in France and elsewhere
often remain in the hospital for nearly a
week to heal and learn to breast-feed,
while American women tend to be dis-
chargedadayor twoafter birth, since in-
surers do not pay costs for anything that
is not considered medically necessary.
Onlyinthe UnitedStates is pregnancy
generally billed item by item, a practice
that has spiraledinthe past decade, doc-
tors say. No item is too small. Charges
that 20 years ago were lumped together
and covered under the general hospital
fee are now broken out, leading to more
bills and inflated costs: There are sepa-
rate fees for the deliveryroom, the birth-
ing tub and each night in a semiprivate
hospital room, typically thousands of
dollars. Even removing the placenta can
be coded as a separate charge.
Each new test is a new source of rev-
enue, fromthe hundreds of dollars billed
for the simple blood typing required be-
fore each delivery to the $20 or so for the
splash of disinfectant on the umbilical
cord (price per bottle at a chain phar-
macy: $2.59). Obstetricians, who used to
do routine tests like ultrasounds in their
office as part of their flat fee, nowcharge
for theserviceor farmout suchtestingto
radiologists, whose rates are far higher.
Add up the bills, and the total is star-
tling. Weve created incentives that
encourage more expensive care, rather
than care that is good for the mother,
said Maureen Corry, the executive di-
rector of Childbirth Connection.
In almost all other developed coun-
tries, hospitals anddoctors receive a flat
fee for the care of an expectant mother,
and while there are guidelines, women
have a broad array of choices. There
are no bills, and a hospital doesnt get
paid for doing specific things, said
Charlotte Overgaard, an assistant pro-
fessor of public health at Aalborg Uni-
versity in Denmark. If a woman wants
acupuncture, an epidural or birth in wa-
ter, thats what shell get.
Despite its lavish spending, the
United States has one of the highest
rates of both infant and maternal death
among industrialized nations, although
the fact that poor and uninsured women
and those whose insurance does not
cover childbirth have trouble getting or
paying for prenatal care contributes to
those figures.
Some social factors drive up the ex-
penses. Mothers are now older than
ever before, andtherefore more likelyto
require or request more expensive
prenatal testing. And obstetricians face
the highest malpractice risks among
physicians and pay hundreds of thou-
sands of dollars a year for insurance,
fostering a more is safer attitude.
With costs spiraling, some hospitals
are starting to offer all-inclusive rates
for pregnancy. Maricopa Medical Cen-
ter, a public hospital in Phoenix, began
offering uninsured patients a compre-
hensive package two years ago. Mak-
ing women choose during labor wheth-
er you want to pay $1,000 for an
epidural, that didnt seem right, said
Dr. Dean Coonrod, the hospitals chief of
obstetrics and gynecology.
The hospital charges $3,850 for a va-
ginal delivery, with or without an epi-
dural, and $5,600 for a planned C-section
prices that include standard hospital,
doctors and testing fees. To set the
price, the hospital, which breaks even
on maternity care and whose doctors
are on salaries, calculated the average
payment it gets fromall insurers.
The Catalyst for Payment Reform, a
California policy group, has proposed
that all hospitals should offer such
bundled prices and that rates should be
the same, regardless of the type of deliv-
ery. It says that $8,000 might be a reason-
able starting point. But that may be hard
toimagineinmarkets likeNewYorkCity,
where $8,000 is less than many private
doctors charge for their fees alone.
One factor that has helped keep costs
down in other developed countries is
the extensive use of midwives, who per-
form the bulk of prenatal examinations
and even simple deliveries; obstetri-
cians are regarded as specialists who
step in only when there is risk or need.
Sixty-eight percent of births are attend-
ed by a midwife in Britain and 45 per-
cent in the Netherlands, compared with
8 percent in the United States.
To control costs in the United States,
patients may also have to alter their ex-
pectations, including the presence of an
obstetrician at every prenatal visit and
delivery. Its amazing how much pa-
tients buyinto our tendencyto do a lot of
tests, said Eugene Declercq, a profes-
sor at Boston University who studies in-
ternational variations in pregnancy.
Weve met the problem, and its us.
Starting next year, insurance policies
will be required under the Affordable
Care Act to include maternity coverage,
so no woman should be left paying en-
tirely on her own, like Ms. Martin. But
the law is not explicit about what ser-
vices must be included in that coverage.
Exactly what that means is the crux of
the issue, Dr. Kozhimannil, the studys
lead author, said.
Even women with the best insurance
canstill encounter highprices. After her
daughter was born seven years ago, Dr.
Marguerite Duane, 42, was flabbergas-
ted by the line items on the bills, many
for blood tests she said were unneces-
sary and medicines she never received.
She and her husband, Dr. Kenneth Lin,
both associate professors of family
medicine at Georgetown Medical
School, had delivered babies in their
early years of practice.
So when she became pregnant again
in 2011, she decided to be more assertive
about holding down costs. Though she
delivered her son Isaac with a midwife
12 minutes after arriving at the hospital
and was home the next day, the hospital
bill alone was more than $6,000, and her
insurance co-payment was about $1,500.
Most insurance companies wouldnt
blink at my bill, but it was absurd it
was the least medical delivery in his-
tory, said Dr. Duane. There were no
meds. I had no anesthesia. He was never
in the nursery. I even brought my own
heatingpad. I triedtoget anexplanation,
but there were items like maternitysup-
plies. What was that? Adiaper?
Ms. Martin could not stop fretting
about the potential cost of a complicated
delivery as her due date neared. I
know that a C-section could ruin us fi-
nancially, she said. On May 25, she had
a healthy daughter, Isla Daisy, born by
vaginal delivery. Mother and daughter
went home two days later.
She and her husband are both over-
joyed and tired. And, she said, they are
dreading the bills, which she esti-
mates will be over $32,000 before negoti-
ations begin. Her labor was induced,
which required intense monitoring, and
she also had an epidural.
Pregnant women in U.S.
face costliest array of fees
in world to birth children
Say so long
to having it
so good
JOSH HANER/THE NEW YORK TIMES
When Rene Martin called her hospital to enquire about the cost of maternity care, she was given a range of $4,000 to $45,000.
IN OUR PAGES 100, 75, 50 YEARS AGO
Postpartum sticker shock
As the baby
boomers
approach
frailty, they
offer a legacy
so different
from the
promise they
inherited.
Its amazing how much
patients buy into our tendency
to do a lot of tests. Weve met
the problem, and its us.
The costs of childbirth
Sources: International Federation of Health Plans
AVERAGE 2012 AMOUNT PAID FOR CHILDBIRTH, BY COUNTRY
CAESAREAN CONVENTIONAL DELIVERY
United States
Argentina
Switzerland
France
Chile
Netherlands
Britain
New Zealand
Spain
South Africa
$15,041
1,541
5,186
6,441
3,378
5,328
4,435
4,717
3,097
3,449
$9,775
1,188
4,039
3,541
2,992
2,669
2,641
2,386
2,265
2,035
Note: Amounts paid are the actual payments agreed to by insurance companies or other payers
for services, and are lower than billed charges. Amounts shown include routine prenatal,
delivery and postpartum obstetric care, including ultrasound, amniocentesis, chorionic villus
sampling, fetal contraction stress test and home visits. Care provided by practitioners other than
the obstetrician such as ultrasounds performed by a radiologist or blood testing by a lab
are not included in this tally.
Maternity care and childbirth cost far more in the United States than in other
developed countries, but studies show that those countries citizens do not have
less access to care during pregnancy than Americans.
TUESDAY, JULY 2, 2013 | 3 THE GLOBAL EDITION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES
. . . .
World News
europe
PARIS
BY DAN BILEFSKY
Croatia became the 28th member of the
European Union on Monday, a joyous
moment for the small, predominantly
Catholic country some 20 years after it
won independence in the bloody wars of
the Balkans.
With Europe roiled by financial crisis,
Croatias accessionoffers araremoment
of satisfaction for the Union, underlining
howacountrys desire tojointhe worlds
biggest trading bloc can push it to make
difficult economic and political changes.
Sincetheendof theColdWar, theEuro-
pean blocs soft power its ability to
press for concessions fromcountries that
want to jointhe clubhas beena power-
ful foreign policy tool and an alternative
toU.S. militarymight. Inthecaseof Croa-
tia, the incentive of joining the union
pushed it to revamp a statist post-Com-
munist economy, pass morethan350new
laws, and arrest more than a dozen Croa-
tian and Bosnian-Croat war criminals.
In return, Croatia stands to benefit
from gaining access to a market of 500
million consumers as well as about 18
billion, or $23.5 billion, in financing ear-
marked for the country between 2014
and 2020.
Elsewhere in the region, Serbia and
Kosovo recently signed a power-shar-
ing agreement aimed at overcoming
ethnic enmities and proving to E.U. offi-
cials in Brussels that they have the
European credentials to join the bloc.
On Friday, they were rewarded for their
efforts, with Serbia receiving the go-
ahead to start entry negotiations in
January and Kosovo gaining closer
trade, economic and political ties.
The accession of Croatia marks an im-
portant step in the European integra-
tion of one of Europes poorest regions,
one that has struggled to throwoff a leg-
acy of war and bloodshed. Serbia, Bos-
nia and Herzegovina, Macedonia,
Montenegro and Kosovo states
carved from the former Yugoslavia
are all hoping to join the bloc. Slovenia
joined in 2004.
Croatias entry is the Unions first en-
largement since 2007, when Romania
and Bulgaria joined. In 2004, 10 coun-
tries joined, including the Czech Repub-
lic, Hungary and Poland.
To mark the occasion in Zagreb, the
capital, thousands of Croatians turned
out to celebrate; fireworks exploded
and Beethovens Ode to Joy was
played at midnight. This will change
the life of this nation for good. I welcome
you wholeheartedly, Herman Van
Rompuy, the president of the European
Council, told the crowd.
But many Croatians remain ambiva-
lent about joiningaunionmiredinacrip-
pling debt crisis that has ensnared
Greece, Spain, Italy and others and
pushed some members to the brink of
bankruptcy. While Croatia is not joining
the euro zone, the source of the worst of
Europes economic problems, it is never-
theless inrecessionandis sufferingfrom
DIMITAR DILKOFF/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Croats gathered in central Zagreb to celebrate at midnight Sunday as their country joined the European Union. Croatia is the first country to be admitted to the bloc since 2007.
WASHINGTON
BY SCOTT SHANE
AND DAVID E. SANGER
U.S. intelligence officials refer to Ed-
ward J. Snowdens job as a National Se-
curity Agency contractor as systems
administrator a bland name for the
specialists who keep the computers
humming. But his last jobbefore leaking
classified documents about N.S.A. sur-
veillance, he told The Guardian, was ac-
tually infrastructure analyst.
It is a title that officials have carefully
avoided mentioning, perhaps for fear of
inviting questions about the agencys
aggressive tactics: An infrastructure
analyst at the N.S.A., like a burglar cas-
ing an apartment building, looks for
new ways to break into Internet and
telephone traffic around the world.
That assignment helps explain how
Mr. Snowden got hold of documents lay-
ing bare the top-secret capabilities of
the United States largest intelligence
agency, setting off a far-reaching politic-
al and diplomatic crisis for the Obama
administration.
Mr. Snowden, who planned his leaks
for at least ayear, has saidhe tookthe in-
frastructure analyst position with Booz
Allen Hamilton in Hawaii in March, evi-
dently taking a pay cut, to gain access to
a fresh supply of documents.
My position with Booz Allen
Hamilton granted me access to lists of
machines all over the world the N.S.A.
hacked, he told The South China Morn-
ing Post before leaving Hong Kong a
week ago for Moscow, where he has
been in limbo in the transit area of
Sheremetyevo Airport. That is why I
accepted that position about three
months ago.
Aclose reading of Mr. Snowdens doc-
uments shows the extent to which the
eavesdropping agency now has two
new roles: It is a data cruncher, with an
appetite to sweep up, and hold for years,
a staggeringvarietyof information. And
it is an intelligence force armed with
cyberweapons, assigned not just to
monitor foreign computers but also, if
necessary, to attack.
After the 2001 terrorist attacks, the
documents suggest, the N.S.A. decided
it was too risky to wait for leads on spe-
cific suspects before going after relev-
ant phone and Internet records. So it fol-
lowed the example of the hoarder who
justifies stacks of paper because
someday, somehow, a single page could
prove vitally important.
Indeed, an obscure passage in one of
the Snowden documents rules for col-
lecting Internet data that the Obama ad-
ministration wrote in secret in 2009 and
that the Foreign Intelligence Surveil-
lance Court approved suggested that
the government was concerned about
its ability to process all the data it was
collecting. So it got the court to approve
an exception allowing the government
to hold on to that information if it could
not keep up. The rules said that the
communications that may be retained
for up to five years include electronic
communications acquired because of
the limitation on the N.S.A.s ability to
filter communications.
As one private expert who sometimes
advises the N.S.A. on this technology
put it: This means that if you cant de-
salinate all the seawater at once, youget
to hold on to the ocean until you figure it
out.
Collecting that ocean requires the
brazen efforts of tens of thousands of
technicians like Mr. Snowden. On
Thursday, Mr. Obama played down Mr.
Snowdens importance, perhaps con-
cernedthat the manhunt was itself dam-
aging the image and diplomatic rela-
tions of the United States. No, Im not
going to be scrambling jets to get a 29-
year-old hacker, the president said
during a stop in Senegal.
Mr. Obama presumably meant the
term to be dismissive, suggesting that
Mr. Snowden(who turned30 onJune 21)
was a young computer delinquent. But
as an N.S.A. infrastructure analyst, Mr.
Snowden was, in a sense, part of the
United States biggest and most skilled
teamof hackers.
The N.S.A., Mr. Snowdens docu-
ments show, has worked with its British
counterpart, Government Communica-
tions Headquarters, to tap into hun-
dreds of fiber optic cables that cross the
Atlantic or go on into Europe, with the
N.S.A. helping sort the data. The disclo-
sure revived old concerns that the Brit-
ish might be helping the N.S.A. evade
U.S. privacy protections, an accusation
that U.S. officials flatly deny.
Mr. Snowdens collection of pilfered
N.S.A. documents has cast an awkward
light on officials past assurances to
Congress and the public about their con-
cern about Americans privacy.
It was only in March that James R.
Clapper Jr., the director of national in-
telligence, told a Senate committee that
the N.S.A. did not collect data on mil-
lions of Americans. Mr. Snowdens re-
cords forced Mr. Clapper to backtrack,
admitting his statement was false.
Even in the unaccustomed spotlight
after the N.S.A. revelations, intelligence
officials have concealed more than they
have revealed in careful comments,
fearful of alerting potential eavesdrop-
ping targets to agency methods.
In fact, as Mr. Snowdens documents
have shown, the omnivorous agencys
operations range far beyond terrorism,
targeting foreigners of any conceivable
interest. British eavesdroppers working
withtheN.S.A. penetratedLondonmeet-
ings of the Group of 20 industrialized na-
tions, partly by luring delegates to fake
Internet cafes, and the N.S.A. hacked in-
to computers at Chinese universities.
At Fort Meade, on the N.S.A.s heavily
guarded campus off the Baltimore-
WashingtonParkwayinMaryland, such
disclosures are seen as devastating tip-
offs to targets. The disclosure in Mr.
Snowdens documents that Skype is co-
operating with orders to turn over data
to the N.S.A., for example, undermined
a widespread myth that the agency
could not intercept the voice-over-Inter-
net service. Warned, in effect, by Mr.
Snowden, foreign officials, drug cartel
leaders and terrorists may become far
more careful about how, and howmuch,
they communicate.
REUTERS BREAKINGVIEWS
The real benefits of E.U. accession for
Croatia policy overhauls and political
stability are uncertain. PAGE 22
Job title gave Snowden special access to secrets
Leaker helped N.S.A.
in its search for new
targets around the world
Atransformed Croatia becomes 28th E.U. member
an unemployment rate of 21 percent.
Alluding to the challenges of entering
a club in decline, President Ivo Josi-
povic of Croatia told Nova TV on Satur-
day that he was repeatedly asked by
journalists from other European coun-
tries why Zagreb wanted to join.
My counter question was: You
come fromthe E.U. Is your country pre-
paring to leave the bloc? They would
invariably reply: Of course not. Well,
there you go, thats why we are joining,
because we also believe the E.U. has a
future, he said.
If some Croats are cautious about
membership, many countries inthe bloc
remain weary of expansion, fearing that
an overstretched European Union will
become unmanageable. The problem of
endemic corruption in new member
states from the east like Bulgaria and
Romania has also fanned fears in Brus-
sels that countries are being admitted
too quickly, and importing lawlessness
and graft into the bloc.
Transparency International ranked
Croatia as the 62nd most troubled na-
tion out of 176 countries in its 2012 cor-
ruption perception index, which ranks
countries based on how corrupt their
public sector is seen as being. That com-
pared with Romania at 66, Bulgaria at
75, Italy at 72 and Greece at 94.
Marko Prelec, Balkans director at the
International Crisis Group in Sarajevo,
said Croatia was an important test case
for whether other countries in the re-
gion would be admitted to the Union. If
Croatia turns into a problem child for
the E.U., then its going to be next to im-
possible for anyone else to join, he said.
But if it goes well, then the doors will
be open for its neighbors, too.
Changes include slate
of new laws, economic
overhaul and war arrests
This will change the life of
this nation for good. I
welcome you wholeheartedly,
a top E.U. official told Croats.
Revelations of U.S. spying
imperil Europe trade pact
SPYING, FROM PAGE 1
France has been a critic of the pro-
posed free-trade deal, trying to ensure
that its key interests, which include do-
mestic production of films and videos
and agriculture, are protected.
AndFrance is also well-knownas hav-
ing a sophisticated, well-funded intelli-
gence system that also spies on allies
and enemies to protect French national
and commercial interests.
France is a cynical country, said
Franois Heisbourg, a defense expert.
We all spy, but the difference here is
the scale up to 60 million connections
in Germany in a day! That spies go
spearfishing after particular targets
is one thing, he said. But no one has un-
derstood that our societies were being
spied onso massively this isnt spear-
fishing but trawling with a big, big net.
Thats the real shocker.
What also troubles people is the sense
that the United States, having unlim-
ited means, means they use them be-
cause they exist, and this speaks poorly
of checks and balances in the system.
Mr. Heisbourg wondered if Obama
thought he was telling the truth in the
Berlin speech, since spying on the
E.U. was particularly revealing.
Fleur Pellerin, Frances minister for
the digital economy, said that what
shocked her was generalized surveil-
lance of populations thats an affair
completely different from espionage,
its much more serious.
Camille Grand, director of the Foun-
dation for Strategic Research, said that
the revelations fed into a growing dis-
appointment with Obama in Europe
that is fed on the drone program and
Guantanamo Bay. For allied intelli-
gence services to spy on one another is
not new, he said, especially in trade ne-
gotiations and commercial dealings.
But its complicated the view of
Obama, to realize hes a rather standard
U.S. president, using all the tools at his
disposal.
Mr. Obama has told Americans that
Prism is not aimed at them, only at for-
eigners, Mr. Grand said. Then we find
out that policy doesnt apply to Amer-
icas allies. It creates a lot of skepti-
cism.
While France, Germany and other al-
lies are also spying, there is a large im-
balance in terms of technical means,
which adds to the discomfort. James
Bamford, the author of a book about the
N.S.A., The Puzzle Palace, said that
the latest technology gives the United
States a huge qualitative advantage
over its partners. The difference is,
youre comparing eavesdropping with a
nuclear weapon to eavesdropping with
a cannon, he said. These countries
dont have anywhere near the capacity
that the N.S.A. does in terms of their ca-
pacity to do to us what we do to them.
That can confer an immense edge, he
said, adding, Its the equivalent of go-
ing to a poker game and wanting to
know what everyones hand is before
you place your bet.
Mr. Bamford, like others, said that
Washingtons interest in Germany was
understandable, both because of its
political and economic clout and the fact
that the Sept. 11 terror plot was hatched
in Harburg, near Hamburg.
The reaction was particularly angry
in Germany, with its history of Nazism
and the East German Stasi, made more
acute by the revelation that a large part
of the American interception efforts
were aimed at that country capturing
up to half a billion communications
every month in a country of only 82 mil-
lion people.
Mr. Obama was just in Berlin on June
19, giving a speech in which he ex-
plained that the U.S. Prism program of
metadata collection was about counter-
terrorism in the interests of all allies.
But the newrevelations fromEdward J.
Snowden, appearing on Sunday in Der
Spiegel Online and in The Guardian
newspaper, indicated that U.S. spying
and data collection included the Euro-
pean Union offices in Brussels and
Washington, which struck many as un-
likely places to find terrorists.
Elmar Brok, an outspoken German
who chairs the European Parliaments
foreignaffairs committee, saidthat the
spying has reached dimensions that I
did not think were possible for a demo-
cratic country. He said the United
States has lost all balance George
Orwell is nothing by comparison.
Mr. Obama said in Tanzania that he
had directed his staff to examine the
latest reports regarding spying on
UnitedStates allies. We will take a look
at this article, figure out what they may
or may not be talking about and then
well communicate with our allies ap-
propriately, Mr. Obama said.
He said of every intelligence service:
Heres one thing that theyre going to
be doing: theyre going to be trying to
understand the world better and whats
going on in world capitals around the
world, from sources that arent avail-
able through The New York Times or
NBC News.
If that werent the case, then thered
be no use for an intelligence service, he
said, adding that I guarantee you that
in European capitals, there are people
who are interested in, if not what I had
for breakfast, at least what my talking
points might be should I end up meeting
with their leaders. Thats how intelli-
gence services operate.
Reporting was contributed by Brian
Knowlton fromWashington; Michael D.
Shear fromDar es Salaam, Tanzania;
Melissa Eddy fromBerlin; and Rick
Gladstone fromNewYork.
MOSCOW
BY ANDREW ROTH
AND ELLEN BARRY
President Vladimir V. Putin said Mon-
day that Edward J. Snowden, the former
national security staffer accused of es-
pionage, would not receive political
asylum in Russia unless he stopped
publishing classified documents that
hurt the interests of the United States.
At a news conference here, Mr. Putin
pushed back against efforts by the
United States to persuade the Russian
government to extradite Mr. Snowden.
But hesaidMr. Snowdenwas not likelyto
stoppublishingleaks, suggestingthat his
chances of staying in Russia were slim.
Russia never gives up anyone to
anybody and is not planning to, Mr.
Putin said. He added, If he wants to go
somewhere and they accept him,
please, be my guest. If he wants to say
here, there is one condition: He must
cease his work aimed at inflicting dam-
age to our American partners, as
strange as it may sound frommy lips.
Mr. Putins remarks came eight days
after Mr. Snowden arrived on an Aero-
flot flight from Hong Kong, apparently
intending to board a connecting flight
headed for Latin America. After that, it
seemed that Mr. Snowden and Sarah
Harrison, a WikiLeaks activist who is
traveling with him, got caught in a geo-
political limbo. Mr. Snowdens U.S. pass-
port has been revoked and he has been
unable to leave the transit zone.
With Ecuador, his original destina-
tion, evidently wavering, Mr.
Snowdens options seem to have nar-
rowed, and his stopover at Shere-
metyevo airport here now threatens to
stretch into weeks.
Mr. Snowden has applied for political
asylum in Russia, a Russian immigra-
tion official said Monday. According to
theofficial, whospokeontheconditionof
anonymity because he was not author-
ized to discuss the case, Ms. Harrison
hand-delivered Ms. Snowdens applica-
tionto a Russianconsulate inTerminal F
of the airport late Sunday evening.
A Foreign Ministry official told The
Los Angeles Times on Monday that Mr.
Snowden had applied to 15 different
countries for political asylum, giving
them the appeals at a Monday morning
meeting. The official characterized the
applications as a desperate measure
on Mr. Snowdens part, after Ecuado-
rean officials said that the Ecuadorean
travel document he was using was in-
valid.
The official said that Mr. Snowdens
application for political asylum in Rus-
sia had not received a response from
Russianofficials inthe ForeignMinistry
as of Monday evening.
Ellen Barry contributed reporting.
U.S. ties to China intact
Secretary of State John Kerry said Mon-
day that relations with China would not
be upset by allegations that it had facil-
itated Mr. Snowdens flight from Hong
Kong, Michael R. Gordon reported from
Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei, where
Mr. Kerry arrived after four days of in-
tensive diplomacy in the Middle East
Mr. Snowdens ability to avoid deten-
tion and travel to Moscow despite a re-
quest by the United States that he be ar-
rested initially led to an angry response
by Obama administration officials. The
White House last week described the de-
velopment as a serious setback to
American-Chinese relations. But follow-
ing a meeting with his Chinese counter-
part at a conference hosted by Southeast
Asiannations inBrunei, Mr. Kerrystruck
a conciliatory note, casting the Snowden
affair as but one issue among many.
Putin puts condition on asylumclaim: Cease publishing
SUSAN WALSH/AP
James Clapper, national intelligence chief,
told senators in March that the N.S.A. did
not collect data on millions of Americans.
We all spy, but the difference
here is the scale.
INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE 4 | TUESDAY, JULY 2, 2013
. . . .
world news europe africa americas
BRI EFLY
Europe
I STANBUL
20,000 take to the streets
to demand gay rights
Not long after a security crackdown
smothered the antigovernment
protests that convulsed Turkey for
weeks, thousands of people have taken
to the streets of Istanbul again, this
time for a march to demand better
treatment and equal rights for lesbian,
gay, bisexual and transgender people.
When the first gay rights parade was
organized here in 2003, only a few
dozen people dared to take part. But on
Sunday, at least 20,000 people joined the
march, many of themholding rainbow
flags and chanting slogans denouncing
government policies that discriminate
based on sexual orientation.
In 2002, before he took office, Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan prom-
ised greater legal protections for mem-
bers of the L.G.B.T. community, but in
March he called homosexuality a
sexual preference that contradicted
Islam, according to a report in the
newspaper Hurriyet. We were hopeful
back then, said Yildiz, a cross-dresser
who attended the march Sunday hold-
ing a rainbowumbrella. But nowwe
receive bad treatment fromthe police
and the judiciary on made-up grounds.
ROME
Pope to visit Lampedusa
to support immigrants
Pope Francis has chosen the southern
Italian island of Lampedusa for his first
trip outside Rome, to showsolidarity
with tens of thousands of refugees who
each year brave a perilous journey
there in flimsy boats, the Vatican said
Monday.
The island, Italys southernmost
point, is the conduit for mostly African
immigrants fleeing conflict or economic
hardship in order to enter the European
Union. The Vatican said Francis was
profoundly touched by the flood of
immigration and would throwa wreath
of flowers into the sea in memory of the
many who have drowned in waters off
the island during the visit on July 8.
Aholding center on the island built to
hold 380 people has long been over-
whelmed. The islands predicament has
become a symbol for those who see im-
migration as out of control. (REUTERS)
Tanzanians warn of rising political tension
DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA
BY NICHOLAS KULISH
As one of the leaders of an acrimonious
strike by doctors in Tanzania, Dr. Steph-
en Ulimboka was not entirely surprised
when a group of armed men appeared,
unannounced, at a meeting and arres-
ted him. But when he saw that the car
they were forcing him into had no li-
cense plates, fear truly hit him.
Youre going to pay for what youve
been doing, Dr. Ulimboka recalled one
of the men saying. You can start pray-
ingto your Godbecause there is no turn-
ing back.
They beat him for hours on that June
night last year, first with their fists, then
with metal rods. They pulled the nails
frombothof his bigtoes. As he layonthe
ground, he heard them discussing the
best way to kill him. He was unsure
whether he would live till daybreak.
Tanzania has a reputation abroad as
an island of stability in the often-chaotic
region of East Africa. The country has
been rewarded with praise and money
frominternational donors, including the
United States, which last year gave the
country more than $480 million.
President Barack Obama arrived
here Monday to visit a country where
human rights groups and the largest op-
position party say episodes of intimida-
tion and suppression of political oppo-
nents are growing. The international
community believes there is peace in
Tanzania, said Willibrod Slaa, the sec-
retary general of the opposition party,
Chadema. There is fear, not peace.
Journalists have been attacked and in
at least one instance killed while work-
ing. Last July, the government banned
an independent weekly newspaper,
Mwanahalisi, which had been reporting
on Dr. Ulimbokas kidnapping, linking
the crime to the government. President
Jakaya Kikwete denied any connection.
The political violence reached a new,
unexpected level last month, when a
hand grenade was thrown at a rally or-
ganized by Chadema in the northern
city of Arusha, killing four people. No
suspect has been identified, and the in-
vestigation is continuing.
At the party offices in Dar es Salaam
the other day, officials placed a silver
laptop on a table and showed a video
fromthe rally in Arusha.
In the footage, party leaders gave
speeches fromatop a truck with built-in
speakers. Afterward, they descended
into the crowd and began collecting
donations. A blast sent people scatter-
ing. A handful of wounded and dead
were frantically gathered and carried to
the bed of a pickup truck that took them
to receive medical treatment, leaving
behind a blacktop slick with blood.
It is intimidation, Mr. Slaa said.
The people will be afraid to go to the
polling stations, and the active ones will
have been eliminated.
Chadema officials have publicly said
that the man responsible was either
working with, or protected by, the po-
lice. They say the party will produce a
video proving their charge, but only
after an independent commission has
been named to investigate.
Paul A. M. Chagonja, commissioner of
police for operations, called the allega-
tions frivolous and unfounded and
said the party was obligated to furnish
law enforcement with any evidence in
its possession.
Tanzania, home to Mount Kiliman-
jaro, is a popular tourist destination for
safaris in the Serengeti. The nation has
been lauded for its ethnic cohesion,
rising above the kind of tribal violence
that rocked Kenya after that countrys
elections in 2007. Although a church
bombing in May, also in Arusha, raised
concerns that religious tensions could
rise, Tanzania is relatively free of sec-
tarian strife. That is one reason Mr.
Obama scheduled a visit here.
On Monday, Mr. Obama was greeted
by a sea of ecstatic Tanzanians, who
poured out of their houses and busi-
nesses along the main streets of Dar Es
Salaam.
On his way from the airport to the
state house for a meeting with Mr.
Kikwete, people lined nearly every inch
of the streets as the motorcade made
the 20-minute journey. The crowds, a
dozen rows deep in some places, roared
with approval as Mr. Obama passed.
The president said at a news confer-
ence that he sought a new U.S. relation-
ship with Africa.
We are looking at a newmodel thats
based not just on aid and assistance, but
on trade and partnership, Mr. Obama
said, according to The Associated Press.
Ultimately, the goal here is for Africa
to build Africa for Africans, he said.
And our job is to be a partner in that
process.
Tanzania is the final stop of Mr.
Obamas weeklong African visit. White
House officials also said Monday that
Mr. Obama would be joined by his pre-
decessor, George W. Bush, at a wreath-
laying event Tuesday morning at the
site of the 1998 coordinated bombings of
U.S. Embassies in Tanzania and Kenya.
Tenpeople were killedat the embassyin
Dar es Salaam.
The Tanzanian government has es-
sentially remained in the hands of the
same party since independence half a
century ago. Tanzania held its first mul-
tiparty elections in 1995, but the govern-
ing party, Chama cha Mapinduzi, or
Party of the Revolution in Swahili, has
won the national elections each time
since.
Analysts say the very real prospect
that voters will choose another party in
the next election, in 2015, has rattled
some members of the government, par-
ticularly those who are afraid that a new
party in power could mean aggressive
investigations and prosecutions.
Abdulrahman Kinana, secretary gen-
eral of the governing party, said it was
prepared to accept a defeat at the ballot
box. We were always ready to transfer
power if the people decide, he said,
adding that the party had won the coun-
trys free and fair elections by reach-
ing out more effectively to voters.
But the government needs to tell us
what happened to those people who
were either killed or attacked, Mr. Kin-
ana said. Most of these crimes have
not gotten an explanation.
The men who kidnapped and tortured
Dr. Ulimboka took himto a forest, where
hewasdumpedinaholeabout ameter, or
three feet, deep, his arms andlegs bound.
He laid as still as possible, hoping the
men would believe he was already dead.
He waited about half an hour after they
left before struggling to free his legs.
He walked toward the sound of a road,
his hands still boundbehindhis back, the
rope biting deeply into his wrists. There,
he found help and was taken to a police
station and later to a hospital. He had to
be flown to South Africa for treatment.
A year later, most of his injuries have
healed. He does not fear for himself at a
time when people are killed at public
gatherings.
People, Dr. Ulimboka said, can
just kill you anywhere.
Michael D. Shear contributed reporting.
DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES
Tanzanians lining the streets to greet President Barack Obama on Monday as his motorcade drove fromthe airport to Dar es Salaamfor his meeting with President Jakaya Kikwete.
The people will be afraid
to go to the polling stations,
and the active ones will have
been eliminated.
BRI EFLY
Americas
After same-sex ruling, couple
in Florida gets resident visa
An American man in Florida and his
husband, who is fromBulgaria, have
become the first same-sex married
couple to be approved for a permanent
resident visa, a milestone that comes
after the Supreme Court struck down a
federal lawagainst same-sex marriage
last week.
The notice of approval of a permanent
visa, known as a green card, was issued
by e-mail last Friday to Traian Popov, a
Bulgarian immigrant who lives with his
American spouse, Julian Marsh, in Fort
Lauderdale, Florida. The two were mar-
ried in NewYork last year.
The Supreme Courts decision has
had a significant impact in cases in-
volving United States citizens who are
seeking green cards for foreign spouses
of the same sex. The Defense of Mar-
riage Act, which defined marriage as a
union between a man and a woman,
had prohibited the federal government
fromrecognizing same-sex marriages
as the grounds for any visa.
SANTI AGO
Ex-president advances
in bid to return to power
Michelle Bachelet, who was the leader
of Chile from2006 to 2010, has won a
lopsided victory in the countrys first
national primary, making her the fa-
vorite to win back the presidency in
November.
Ms. Bachelet, the first woman to lead
Chile, won nearly three-quarters of the
vote Sunday for the nomination of the
center-left NewMajority coalition, eas-
ily defeating two rivals. The conserva-
tive Alliance for Chile coalition chose a
former economy minister, Pablo
Longueira, to oppose her.
Presidents of Chile are barred from
serving consecutive terms, but not from
serving more than once. If she wins,
Ms. Bachelet will be the first president
to return to office since the current Con-
stitution took force in 1981. (REUTERS)
RI O DE JANEI RO
Protest turns violent outside stadium
Security forces fired rubber bullets and
tear gas at protesters to break up a
demonstration near the Maracan sta-
dium, while Brazils soccer team
played against Spain inside the arena.
After a demonstration by thousands of
people on Sunday afternoon, a small
group of protesters threwrocks at po-
lice officers. At least six people were in-
jured, Brazilian news media reported.
Helicopters and a DC-10 jet, dropping
slurry, were also aiding the effort.
Steve Skurja, a spokesman for the
Yavapai County Sheriffs Office, said of-
ficials had decided to allowmany homes
in the area to burn because the crews
were having such a hard time; The Ari-
zona Republic reported that about half
of the towns 500 homes were expected
to be destroyed.
The fire was sparked Friday after-
noon by a lightning strike, the authorit-
ies said. They said twisting winds, com-
bined with a 10-year drought and dry,
thick brush in the area, had helped the
blaze spread.
BrianKlimowski, the meteorologist in
charge of the National Weather Service
office in Flagstaff, Arizona, said the
wildfire area experienced a sudden in-
crease and shift in wind around the time
the firefighters were overrun. It is not
known how powerful the winds were,
but theywere enoughto cause the fire to
grow in size from 200 acres to about
2,000 in the matter of hours Sunday.
According to government figures, the
deaths on Sunday represented the
largest number of firefighters killed in
one wildfire since a 1933 blaze in Califor-
nia that killed 25, and the largest loss of
firefighters since 341 and two paramed-
ics died in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist at-
tacks on NewYork City.
The crewkilled in the blaze had spent
recent weeks fighting fires in NewMex-
ico and Prescott before being called to
Yarnell. They entered the smoky wil-
derness over the weekend with back-
packs, chainsaws and other heavy gear
to remove brush and trees as a heat
wave across the Southwest sent tem-
peratures into the triple digits.
We grieve for the family. We grieve
for the department. We grieve for the
city, said Dan Fraijo, the Prescott fire
chief. Were devastated. We just lost 19
of the finest people youll ever meet.
As a last-ditch effort at survival,
members are trained to dig into the
ground and cover themselves with their
fire-resistant shelters, Chief Fraijo said.
Its an extreme measure thats
taken under the absolute worst condi-
tions, he said.
Earlier on Sunday, the fire was travel-
ing north, away from the small commu-
nityof Yarnell, 4,800 feet, or 1,463 meters,
upa mountainbetweenWickenburgand
Prescott, in central Arizona. Some of the
650 residents there had left to go to
neighboring Peeples Valley, where an
evacuation order was in place, to help
people pack up and leave their homes.
Others stayed behind, watching the
parched bush burn in the distance or,
like Nina Bill Overmyer, 66, taking a
nap. Suddenly, the wind shifted, and the
flames changed direction, rushing
through the forest straight toward Yar-
nell. Ms. Overmyers husband, Chuck,
woke her up, and they picked up what
they could. He took his motorcycle. She
took their Dodge truck, pulling the flat-
bed trailer bearing their prized Ford hot
rod. By the time they came back to get
their dogs, the blaze was roaring just
above them, rolling down the mountain
and swallowing everything around: the
towns library, community center, diner.
Oh, God, she said. Its all gone.
Nearby, Adria Shayne, 52, grabbed
only her parrot, her dog and her cat. Her
daughter-in-law, Cynthia Somers, said
there was no time to think of what to
take and what to leave behind It was
get up and go. (IHT, AP)
PRESCOTT, ARIZONA
FROMNEWS REPORTS
A wind-driven wildfire continued to
rage out of control in central Arizona on
Monday as crews battling the blaze
copedwithboththe growing fire andthe
deaths of 19 colleagues the day before.
The Yarnell Hill Fire, near the town of
Yarnell, about 80 miles, or nearly 130 ki-
lometers, northwest of Phoenix, has
grown to some 8,374 acres, or 3,390 hec-
tares. Fire officials said they expected a
difficult day with shifting winds, similar
to those that led to the deaths of the fire-
fighters on Sunday.
Of the firefighters killed in the blaze,
18 were members of the Granite Moun-
tain Hotshots, a specialist team of wild-
fire fighters based in Prescott, Mike
Reichling, an Arizona Forestry Division
spokesman, said Monday. Their names
have not yet been released. The other
firefighter was not part of the unit, Mr.
Reichling said.
It was unclear exactly how the fire-
fighters became trapped. Clay Templin
of the Tonto National Forest said Mon-
day that the crew and its commanders
were following safety protocols, but that
it appeared the fires erratic nature
simply overwhelmed them.
Mr. Reichling said the crew members
had deployed their foil-lined shelters,
designed for use in only the direst of
emergencies. One member of the hot-
shot crew survived because he was
moving the units truck whenthe flames
roared over the men, he said.
This is as dark a day as I canremem-
ber, Governor Jan Brewer of Arizona
said in a statement on Sunday.
It may be days or longer before an
investigation reveals how this tragedy
occurred, but the essence we already
knowin our hearts: fighting fires is dan-
gerous work, she said. When a
tragedy like this strikes, all we can do is
offer our eternal gratitude to the fallen,
and prayers for the families and friends
left behind. God bless themall.
President Barack Obama issued a
statement on Monday as he was ending
a visit to South Africa and flying to Tan-
zania. Yesterday, 19 firefighters were
killed in the line of duty while fighting a
wildfire outside Yarnell, Arizona. They
were heroes highly skilled profes-
sionals who, like so many across our
country do every day, selflessly put
themselves in harms way to protect the
lives and property of fellow citizens
they would never meet.
As of Mondaymorning, withtempera-
tures in the area already higher than 90
degrees Fahrenheit (32 Celsius), the
blaze was zero percent controlled,
Mr. Reichling said. The weather has
caused havoc, he said.
Morethan200 firefighters andsupport
personnel were assigned to the wildfire
as of Monday morning. They included 18
hotshot crews from around the country.
As Obama visits country
hailed as a beacon, some
see growing intimidation
19 firefighters die as blaze in Arizona roars out of control
TOM STORY/THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC, VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS
The Yarnell Hill wildfire has burned more than 8,000 acres. A specialized hotshot firefighting crewwas overrun by flames on Sunday.
We grieve for the family.
We grieve for the department.
We grieve for the city.
TUESDAY, JULY 2, 2013 | 5 THE GLOBAL EDITION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES
. . . .
asia-pacific world news
CORRECTI ONS
An article in June 22-23 editions about
Niijima, Japan, a surfing destination,
misstated the location of the beach
where a number of international surfing
competitions are held. Habushi-ura is
on the east coast of the island, not on the
west coast.
An article in Saturday-Sunday edi-
tions about the investigation of the Vat-
ican Bank misstated Msgr. Nunzio
Scaranos employer before he entered
the priesthood. Although he did work
for a bank that was bought by Deutsche
Bank in 1986, his employment there
predated the sale, so he was never an
employee of Deutsche Bank.
BRI EFLY
Asia
SRI NAGAR, KASHMI R
2 are killed in gun battle
in Indian-controlled Kashmir
Apolice officer and a militant were
killed Monday in a gun battle in Indian-
controlled Kashmir, as shops and busi-
nesses remained closed in the disputed
region to protest the killing of two
people by the army, an official said.
Aparamilitary spokesman, Kishore
Prasad, said soldiers and the police had
cordoned off Mandoora village in south-
ern Kashmir on Monday, leading to an
exchange of gunfire with rebels
trapped in a building. Two soldiers
were wounded in the gun battle.
In the main city of Srinagar, schools
were shut and shops closed for a strike
called by separatists to protest the
killing of the two by the army on Sunday.
The killings led to large anti-India rallies
and clashes that left five government
troops injured on Sunday. (AP)
I SLAMABAD
Death toll in Pakistan rises
to 52 after weekend attacks
Police officials said Monday that the
death toll fromseveral weekend bomb-
ings in Pakistan had climbed to 52 after
three victims died overnight fromtheir
wounds.
In the city of Quetta, the capital of Bal-
uchistan Province and the center of a vi-
olent campaign by Sunni militants
against the Shiite Hazara minority, a sui-
cide bomber detonated explosives near
a mosque late on Sunday, killing 28. Two
people wounded in that attack died Mon-
day, said a senior police officer, Fayaz
Sumbal. The militant group Lashkar-e-
Jhangvi, which has carried out many at-
tacks against Shiites in recent years,
took responsibility. In the northwestern
city of Peshawar, one person wounded in
an attack on a paramilitary convoy Sun-
day died in a hospital. (IHT, AP)
Helping ethnic Koreans combat the stigma of autism
NEW YORK
BY AL BAKER
Autism, or the fear of it, chased one
Korean mother from her church in the
borough of Queens here. I very care-
fullytoldthe mom: I thinkyour childis a
little different. Why dont you take the
test for autism? said the Rev. Joy Lee
of theKoreanPresbyterianChurchinthe
Flushing area of the borough. She told
me, Oh no, my child will be O.K. Then
she quit. After that, she did not pick up
the phone.
It crushed another Korean mother
twice. First, she said, when her son re-
ceived the diagnosis, and again when
friends saw it as a sign that she herself
was sick. To cure him, they said, she
needed psychotherapy.
Sun Young Ko, of the Forest Hills sec-
tion of Queens, whose 8-year-old son,
Jaewoo Kwak, was given a diagnosis of
autism 18 months ago, said her own
mother refused to discuss her grandson
with relatives or friends. Shes kind of
hiding, Ms. Ko said.
Raising an autistic child is hard
enough, let alone raising one ina culture
in which the stigma surrounding autism
runs high. Now, inspired by a 2011 study
of a South Korean city that found rela-
tively high rates of autism, a leading ad-
vocacy group is teaming with churches,
doctors, schools andnews organizations
in Flushing, trying gingerly to bring
Koreanparents aroundtothe ideathat if
there is something unusual about their
child, concealing it and avoiding help
are absolutely the wrong things to do.
More so than other populations,
Korean-Americans reallymeasure their
own self-worth, and the worth of the
family, in terms of what the child is able
to achieve and what the child means to
the family, said Roy Richard Grinker, a
professor of anthropology at George
Washington University and the senior
author of the South Korea study.
If I have a child with autism, there is
no effect on our house value, on the abil-
ity to make friends and on an ability to
get promotedat work, saidMr. Grinker,
who wrote Unstrange Minds: Remap-
ping the World of Autism about life
with his autistic daughter, Isabel, now
21. Alot of Korean families fear that.
It is a crucial moment for autism. The
number of children who receive a diag-
nosis of autismhas beenrisingfor years,
without any consensus about why, other
than increased awareness. At the same
time, autism itself is being redefined:
The newest edition of the American
manual for mental disorders, released
weeks ago, collapsed some categories of
autism, including Asperger syndrome,
under the umbrellaof autismspectrum
disorder. Some experts have predicted
the change will lead to fewer diagnoses,
and hence cuts in public spending on
therapy and special education.
In New York, the number of public
school students classified as having aut-
ismthis year, 10,199, or roughly 1 percent
of enrolled students, is up 50 percent
from four years ago, according to the
citys EducationDepartment. Diagnoses
amongAsianstudents have alsojumped.
But while they make up 16 percent of the
school system, they account for only 8
percent of those with autismdiagnoses.
The South Korea study, which was fi-
nanced by AutismSpeaks, the same ad-
vocacy group behind the Queens effort,
screened 55,000 students in the Ilsan
district of the city of Goyang. Research-
ers found that 2 percent of them were
autistic, but that two-thirds of those stu-
dents had not previously received a di-
agnosis or any psychological or special
education services. The prevalence was
surprising, because it was nearly twice
the rate reported in the United States,
according to the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention.
The Korea study attributed the large
number of undiagnosed cases to the
stigma of autism. In interviews, some-
times throughtranslators, Koreanmoth-
ers of autistic children in the New York
area opened up about their experiences.
Several said the diagnosis strained
their marriages. One, Mee Hee Kim,
said it contributed to her divorce. The
mothers also described the subtle ways
that they and their children were shut
out of normal social or familial encoun-
ters, a problem parents from many cul-
tures report, or howthey isolated them-
selves, retreating from invitations to
dinner parties or play dates.
Some also worried that their autistic
childrens siblings would struggle to
find spouses in the Korean community.
Ms. Ko, 42, the mother of Jaewoo, said
the sadness led her to contemplate sui-
cide, though she never tried it.
Often, a diagnosis leads to guilt.
In my experience, so many people
ask me: Did you do something wrong?
Do you guys fight each other in front of
the kids? said Anna Im, the mother of
a 14-year-old autistic boy. Koreans be-
lieve these little things affect the child
and they become autistic.
The outreach effort in the Flushing
area, where the bulk of New Yorks
90,000 Korean residents live, began with
a round of interviews in the community
andanadaptationof autismliteraturefor
Korean readers. In late April, the local
Korean news media were briefed on the
project. Then the translated autism ma-
terials were spread to 60 pediatricians,
preschools and early childhood centers.
In a year or so, researchers will mea-
sure whether several early childhood
agencies that contract with the city are
seeing spikes in requests for help from
Koreans grappling with autism.
We are trying to build a model, for
outreach and facilitation, that would
support immigrant families, minority
families, to access services available
fromschool systems and fromcities and
states, said Andy Shih, who is man-
aging the initiative at AutismSpeaks.
As diagnoses have become more com-
mon, some early intervention providers
have taken advantage of the growth in
public spending, and lax oversight, by
billing for services that were not needed
or never provided.
Unscrupulous providers are not the
only potential pitfall. Young Seh Bae, 48,
who leads a committee of the Korean
American Behavioral Health Associ-
ation and is the mother of a 16-year-old
boy with autism, said she worried that a
focus on Koreans, in both the South Ko-
rea study and the Flushing effort, could
exacerbate stereotypes.
When you look at the different cul-
tures, and compare the disabilities is-
sues, why do you have to just look at Ko-
rea? she said. Why dont you look at
certainparts of the UnitedStates?What
about Oregon? Or Oklahoma?
And though the study in South Korea
was rigorous, Winston Chung, an as-
sistant professor of psychiatry at the
Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth,
said it should be viewed carefully be-
cause the researchers used tools de-
signed by a Western culture to measure
children in an Eastern one. Typical be-
haviors in a Confucian society, where
the norms for eye contact, gesturing so-
cial reciprocity and expressing oneself
are profoundly different, and where
the skill of nunchi measuring
someones mood and desires without
speaking is valued, could be miscon-
strued as autistic in some cases, he said.
In Korean culture, harmony is prior-
itized, and some kids growing up with
this social pressure might be better off
keeping their heads down and mouths
shut, and these tendencies could be mis-
taken for autistic traits from a Western
perspective, said Mr. Chung, whose
parents were born and live in Korea.
NIKO J. KALLIANIOTIS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
Sun Young Kos 8-year-old son, Jaewoo Kwak, was given a diagnosis of autism 18 months ago. She said her own mother refused to discuss her grandson with relatives or friends.
HONG KONG
BY CHRIS BUCKLEY
The police in the volatile far-western
Chinese region of Xinjiang said that a re-
cent deadlyconfrontationwithmembers
of the Uighur ethnic minority was set off
byreligious extremists who attackedthe
police after one of their own was arres-
ted, the state media reported.
Chinas Communist Party leadership
has demanded an unyielding security
response in Xinjiang after two violent
clashes withUighurs onWednesdayand
Friday. Those episodes have kindled
fears of a repeat of the events of July 5,
2009, whenprotests inXinjiangs region-
al capital, Urumqi, grew into street at-
tacks that left nearly 200 residents dead,
many of them Han Chinese, by far the
countrys biggest ethnic group.
Over the weekend, the government
mountedanintimidatingdisplayof force
in Urumqi, where convoys of Peoples
Armed Police patrolled the streets. The
report that the police had swiftly identi-
fied all the suspects involved in the vio-
lence Wednesday also appeared to be
part of that showof strength.
Advocates of Uighur self-determina-
tion and global human rights groups,
however, say Chinas heavy-handed se-
curity policies in Xinjiang are exacerbat-
ing tensions with Uighurs, a Turkic-
speaking people, nearly all of whom ad-
here to Islam. Many of those critics are
also likely to be skeptical of the govern-
ment account of thebloodshedthat broke
out in Lukqun, a town in Turpan Prefec-
ture, which left a total of 35 people dead.
According to that account, published
Sunday by Xinhua, the state-run news
agency, the attack was mounted by a
group of religious extremists who in
February formed a violent terrorist
gang. The report did not identify their
religion, although their Uighur names
left scant doubt they were Muslims.
Fifteen members of the group at-
tacked the Lukqun town police station,
government offices and shops after the
police arrested one of the members,
Xinhua reported. Their attack left 24
people dead, 16 of themUighur.
Theyburnedanddestroyedvehicles,
and wielded knives, madly slashing and
killing police and innocent members of
the public, the Xinhua report said. The
police shot and killed 11 of the rioters,
and four were wounded and captured,
according to the report. On Sunday, the
police caught the last gang member who
was on the run, the report said.
China says
Uighurs are
to blame for
latest clash
Parents are told, gingerly,
that avoiding help is absolutely
the wrong thing to do.
Newpremier
in Australia
adds women
to cabinet
SYDNEY
BY MATT SIEGEL
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, who de-
posed Australias first female prime
minister in a party coup last week, an-
nounced a new cabinet on Monday that
includes the largest number of women
in the countrys history.
Fears of a landslide loss in national
elections scheduled for September mo-
tivated lawmakers in Mr. Rudds gov-
erning Labor Party to reinstate him
Wednesday, bringing to an end the trou-
bled three-year tenure of Julia Gillard,
who had replaced Mr. Rudd as party
leader and prime minister in 2010.
The appointments increase the num-
ber of women in cabinet to 11 out of a
total of 29 positions, including 6 minis-
ters and 5 junior ministers.
Mr. Rudd dismissed speculation that
he was pandering to female voters who
may have been bothered by Ms. Gil-
lards dismissal.
This will be the largest number of
women in the Australian cabinet in his-
tory, and the same for the ministry at
large, Mr. Rudd said on the Channel
Seven television network on Monday
morning. These are women who are
strong, professional, highly experi-
enced and they are there exclusively on
their merit.
Senator Jacinta Collins and two mem-
bers of the House of Representatives,
Julie Collins and Catherine King, joined
the cabinet, whose other female mem-
bers are Senator Penny Wong and
Jenny Macklin and Tanya Plibersek of
the House.
Years of infighting over the leader-
ship have left the Labor Party deeply di-
vided, and more than a half-dozen min-
isters have resigned since Mr. Rudds
return to office. That exodus has left a
dearth of experienced lawmakers in the
leadership less than three months be-
fore what now promises to be a closely
contested election.
Tony Abbott, the leader of the opposi-
tion Liberal-National coalition, dis-
missed the new members as inexperi-
enced. The newministry isnt even the
Bteam, its the Cteam, he saidina tele-
vised statement.
Ms. Gillard, who announced her re-
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as well as dissent within her own party.
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International Herald Tribune
THE GLOBAL EDITION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES
STEPHEN DUNBAR-JOHNSON Publisher
ALISON SMALE Executive Editor
DAVE SMITH Managing Editor
PHILIP McCLELLAN Deputy Managing Editor
URSULA LIU Deputy Managing Editor
KIRK KRAEUTLER Deputy Managing Editor
KATHERINE KNORR Assistant Managing Editor
TIM RACE Assistant Managing Editor
RICHARD BERRY Editor, Continuous News
SERGE SCHMEMANN Editor of the Editorial Page
PHILIPPE MONTJOLIN Senior Vice President, Operations
ACHILLES TSALTAS Senior Vice President, Innovation and Conferences
CHANTAL BONETTI Vice President, Human Resources
JEAN-CHRISTOPHE DEMARTA Vice President, International Advertising
CHARLOTTE GORDON Vice President, Marketing and Strategy
PATRICE MONTI Vice President, Circulation
RANDY WEDDLE Managing Director, Asia-Pacific
SUZANNE YVERNS Chief Financial Officer
Stephen Dunbar-Johnson, Prsident et Directeur de la Publication
The U.S.
court ruling
sends a
signal of
encourage-
ment to the
worlds
sexual
minorities.
KERRYS QUEST
There is a sense of fatalismin Washington about Secretary of
State John Kerrys quest to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace
talks. Many experts have concluded that the conditions for
peace dont exist and are unlikely to exist soon. So far, White
House officials have not begrudged Mr. Kerrys investment of
time and energy in the initiative, but there is little expectation
that President Obama, bogged down with so many other pri-
orities, will get very involved unless real progress emerges.
Still, Mr. Kerry keeps doggedly plowing forward. Despite
the skeptics, this issue is of such importance that he is right to
stay focused on it, at least until it becomes clear that neither
side is willing to seriously engage. And while his trip to the
region last week his fifth produced no breakthrough, he
said he had made progress and would return again soon.
On Thursday, he met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netan-
yahu of Israel, then drove to Amman to confer with the Pales-
tinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, on Friday. He later flewby
helicopter back to Jerusalemfor another meeting with Mr. Net-
anyahu, then one with President Shimon Peres of Israel. On
Saturday and Sunday, he shuttled between the leaders again.
Whether there is any substantive narrowing of differences
between the two sides is unknown. Mr. Kerrys determina-
tion to maintain secrecy is frustrating to anyone following his
mission but also tactical, since unveiling details prematurely
is more likely to back Israelis and Palestinians into opposite
corners. The JerusalemPost reported on Friday that Mr.
Kerry proposed a series of meetings between Mr. Netanyahu
and Mr. Abbas. The newspaper said Mr. Netanyahu accepted
the plan and Mr. Abbas was being pressured to do the same.
The public signals fromboth sides have been confusing.
There is division in Israels conservative government, where
hard-liners have tried to undermine Mr. Kerrys initiative by
advocating more West Bank settlements, while moderates
have endorsed a two-state solution. The Israeli news site
Haaretz.comreported that Mr. Netanyahu has shifted and
is nowserious about the peace process and a two-state solu-
tion. One can only hope that is true.
It does not help that the Palestinians are more disorganized
than ever since their highly competent prime minister, Salam
Fayyad, was ousted and replaced by someone who resigned a
fewweeks later. Mr. Abbas has insisted that Israel halt all set-
tlement building before negotiations could resume and also
wanted some Palestinian prisoners released fromIsraeli
jails. Israels government has not initiated newsettlements
since it was formed in March; even so, it has moved forward
on 69 previously approved apartments in East Jerusalem.
There have been no direct Israeli-Palestinian peace talks
since 2010. Mr. Kerry has made clear he wants to make head-
way well before September, when the U.N. General Assembly
will debate the Middle East. If that does not happen, there may
come a point when Mr. Kerry and President Obama will have
to decide whether it makes sense to invest such energy in this
project without a commitment by Israel and the Palestinians.
Aglobal message on gay marriage
The revolt of the rising class
The middle
class in
Turkey is
fed up with
Erdogan.
But has he
really got-
ten the
message?
Manil Suri
BALTIMORE The Supreme Court de-
cision to strike down core provisions of
the Defense of Marriage Act is a stride
toward greater equality in the United
States. But it is also a shift that will re-
verberate far beyond our shores. Amer-
ica has always been a beacon for those
unable to live a life of liberty in their
homelands, and the ruling sends a sig-
nal of encouragement to such individu-
als, and to their governments, about
what we consider morally acceptable.
In 1979, as I waited in line to enter the
United States for the first time, I was
fairly certain I was gay. When I was
growing up in Mumbai, homosexuality
was invisible I hadnt met a single
person like myself in my 20 years there.
America, to me, offered a ray of hope
through my despair: Id detected in-
controvertible evidence of gay life in its
magazines and films.
NowI stood at the threshold, being
asked by the uniformed gatekeeper to
state my business. I handed over my
I-20 form: proof Id come to pursue an
advanced mathematics degree and
nothing else. Then I was through, into
the promised land.
Gazing back at my almost three and a
half decades here, I see a life filled with
opportunity and freedom. Yes, there
were years of furtiveness, of sleepless
nights wondering if Id be sent back.
But also the time and space I needed to
explore and ease into my identity, the
ability to live openly with the person I
love for 23 years (and counting). And
with this ruling comes the affirmation
of what first attracted me to this coun-
try: its promise of fairness and equality.
Howwould my life have played out
had I stayed in India? Would I have used
marriage as a cover, as a majority of In-
dian homosexuals still do? Or would I
have helped usher in the nascent queer
scene, more visible since the High Court
for the State of Delhi struck down anti-
sodomy laws in 2009? The Indian Su-
preme Court will soon decide on the Del-
hi ruling the kind of situation where
the American ruling could have an inter-
national impact. While the Indian judi-
ciary is fiercely independent, the fact re-
mains that America carries enormous
moral and cultural clout in the world.
Several nations considering the re-
cognition of same-sex unions (from
Bolivia to Vietnam) will receive this
amicus curiae signal. Homophobic
states like Nigeria will be served a fur-
ther reminder of howradically they di-
verge fromour principles of fairness.
Anumber of anti-homosexual stat-
utes that exist today, including those in
India, derive fromthe same source:
English common law. This illustrates
the tremendous worldwide influence a
single legal precept can have.
America is not the first to propose an
alternative precept, reversing centu-
ries of such discrimination. But it has
worked hard to project its image of sup-
porting freedom, and its voice will carry
the strongest. DOMAs repudiation will
burnish this image, and the effects will
be felt by sexual minorities growing up
alone and in despair all over the globe.
MANIL SURI, a mathematics professor at
the University of Maryland, Baltimore
County, is the author, most recently, of
the novel The City of Devi.
Bill
Keller
ISTANBUL In the upscale Istanbul sub-
urb of Bebek, at 9 p.m. sharp, the diners
began drumming on the tables or tap-
ping their wineglasses with forks. The
traffic passing along the Bosporus
chimed in with honking horns and
flashing headlights. It was a genteel
symphony of solidarity with the pro-
testers who a fewdays earlier were
confronting fire hoses and tear gas in
the heart of the city and elsewhere
around Turkey.
Those street battles that caught our
attention this summer have mostly
been policed into submission, and the
worlds cameras have moved on, but
the afterlife is interesting.
What is happening in Turkey is not
Les Miserables, or the Arab Spring.
It is not an uprising born in despera-
tion. It is the latest in a series of revolts
arising fromthe middle class the ur-
ban, educated haves who are in some
ways the principal beneficiaries of the
regimes they nowreject.
We sawearly versions of it in China
in 1989, Venezuela in 2002. We sawit in
Iran in 2009, when the cosmopolitan
crowds thronged in protest against
theocratic hard-liners. We sawit in
Russia in 2011, when legions of 30-
somethings spilled out of their office cu-
bicles, chanting their scorn for the high-
handed rule of Vladimir Putin. While
Turkey was still percolating, the dis-
content bubbled up in Brazil, where yet
another ruling party seems to be a vic-
timof its own success.
The vanguard in each case is mostly
young, students or relative new-
comers to the white-collar work force
who have outgrown the fearful con-
formity of their parents generation.
With their economic wants more or
less satisfied, they nowcrave a voice,
and respect. In this social-media cen-
tury, they are mobilized largely by
Facebook and Twitter, networks of
tweeps circumventing an intimidated
mainstreampress.
The igniting grievances vary. Here in
Istanbul it was a plan to build a mosque
and other developments on a patch of
the citys diminishing green space. In
Brazil it was bus fares. By the time the
protests hit critical mass, they are
about something bigger and more in-
choate: dignity, the perquisites of cit-
izenship, the obligations of power.
Because these protesters are by defi-
nition people with something to lose
and because the autocrats knowit
the uprisings are eventually beaten in-
to submission, at least for the short
term. The authorities kid themselves
that they have solved the problem. It
reminds me of that old pirate joke: The
floggings will continue until morale im-
proves.
But morale does not improve. There
is a newalienation, a newyearning, and
eventually this energy will find an out-
let. In some way, different in each coun-
try, the social contract will be adjusted.
The protesters in these middle-class
revolts tend to be political orphans,
leaderless, party-less, not particularly
ideological. To reach a newequilibrium,
either the rising class must get organ-
ized, or the ruling class must get the
message, or, ideally, both.
In China and Iran and Russia, where
the regimes are more established in
their ruthlessness, the discontented
may have a longer wait. But watch Tur-
key. HowTurkey, as a partner in NATO
and a bridge to the tumultuous Islamic
world, finds its newbalance has both
practical and symbolic significance for
the rest of the world.
The United States has long embraced
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
as the model of a modern Muslimre-
former. The Turkish prime minister,
during his decade in power, has tamed
the army of its coup habit, raised the
standard of living dramatically, offered
an olive branch to the separatist-
minded Kurds and demonstrated
alone in the region that Islamis com-
patible with both free elections and
broad prosperity. When civil war
sundered neighboring Syria, Erdogan
(braving the disapproval of an elector-
ate that tends to be more isolationist)
condemned the brutalities of President
Bashar al-Assad and hosted camps for
hundreds of thousands of Syrian
refugees. Both George W. Bush and
Barack Obama have doted on Erdogan.
The Islamist prime minister proudly
sent three of his four children to univer-
sities in the United
States.
By fostering eco-
nomic growth, by
keeping the army in
its barracks and
by not messing too
much with secular
lifestyles Erdogan
has won some
grudging support
fromthe worldly elite
that originally
viewed himand his more pious Islamic
following as a lurch back to the Otto-
man Empire.
Those days of urban skirmishing,
which began at the end of May with a
pointless and heavy-handed police
crackdown on a sit-in at the disputed
park, have opened many eyes to Er-
dogans intemperate and intolerant
side his tone-deafness, his tendency
to regard any criticismas a grave in-
sult, his conspiracy theories.
The surprise is that Erdogans dark-
er instincts came as a surprise to any-
one. Human rights organizations have
long lamented the fact that Turkey,
while it has a lively press, also has
more journalists in jail than any other
country on earth. If you troll through
the American diplomatic cables di-
vulged in the great WikiLeaks flood,
you find abundant talk of howErdogan
has sometimes used police and courts
as instruments of political control. But
he was a friend in an unfriendly region.
The American attitude was, to para-
phrase a line F.D.R. supposedly said of
another troubling ally: He may be a
thug, but hes our thug. And by regional
standards, he wasnt even that much of
a thug.
With the important exception of po-
lice brutality, Erdogans latest affronts
have been matters of speech and style
rather than action. He has talked of out-
lawing abortion (as have some promi-
nent American politicians), but he
hasnt tried to do it. He has described
Twitter as the worst menace to soci-
ety and suggested clamping down on
social media, but he seems unlikely to
have much success there even if he
tries. He has conjured a dark conspir-
acy of secular subversives, bankers
and Western media, but that is vintage
Erdogan, and vintage Turkey a coun-
try of intrigues that exemplifies the old
line: Even paranoids have enemies.
So the fact that the rising class has
chosen this moment to run out of pa-
tience seems to be Erdogans bad luck.
It may also be Turkeys good fortune.
One possible outcome is that those
unhappy with Erdogan will find an av-
enue into politics, and give Erdogan the
challenge he deserves. The Turkish
system(like the American, only more
so) favors incumbency and makes it
hard to formviable newparties, even if
Erdogans foes could agree on what
they are for. The most visible potential
moderate rival to Erdogan, Abdullah
Gul, who occupies the relatively power-
less presidency, has shown little will-
ingness to take on the prime minister.
But as Sinan Ulgen, the head of an
Istanbul think tank, points out, Er-
dogan is more vulnerable than the auto-
crats of Iran or Russia, who have oil
revenues to float themthrough a crisis.
Turkeys prosperity and in large
measure Erdogans popularity de-
pends on foreign investment and flocks
of tourists. The crackdown on protest-
ers dented Erdogans approval ratings;
more threatening to his tenure, it
spooked investors, emptied hotels and
sent the Turkish stock market into a
tailspin. Yes, the protesters have
something to lose, Ulgen told me. But
so does Erdogan.
In about a year his third termas
prime minister is up, and the rules
dont allowfor a fourth. He has been ex-
ploring options to prolong his time in
power, but they require popular sup-
port, and Erdogans hovers precari-
ously around 50 percent. So whether or
not he has the ability to temper his in-
temperance, he has the incentive. Aleg-
islator who is a moderate supporter of
Erdogan and was with himduring the
protests insists, He got the message.
Well see.
For the long-termstability of Turkey,
it would be good to have a robust polit-
ical opposition advocating a pluralism
that protects both the devout and the
secular. In the meantime, it may be
up to Erdogan to save Turkey from
himself.
Bhutan is no Shangri-La
Vidhyapati Mishra
DAMAK, NEPAL Before my family was
expelled fromBhutan, in 1992, I lived
with my parents and seven siblings in
the south of the country. This region is
the most fertile part of that tiny king-
domperched between Tibet and India,
a tapestry of mountains, plains and
alpine meadows. Our house sat in a
small village, on terraced land flourish-
ing with maize, millet and buckwheat, a
cardamomgarden, beehives and
enough pasture for cows, oxen, sheep
and buffaloes. That was the only home
we had known.
After tightening its citizenship laws
in the mid-1980s, Bhutan conducted a
census in the south and then proceeded
to cast out nearly 100,000 people
about one-sixth of its population, nearly
all of themof Nepalese origin, including
my family. It declared us illegal immi-
grants, even though many of us went
back several generations in Bhutan. It
hasnt let any of us move back.
The enormity of this exodus, one of
the worlds largest by proportion, given
the countrys small population, has
been overlooked by an international
community that is either indifferent or
beguiled by the government-sponsored
images of Bhutan as a serene Buddhist
Shangri-La, an image advanced by the
policy of gross national happiness,
coined by King Jigme Singye
Wangchuck in the 1970s.
Bhutan even helped inspire the
United Nations last year to declare
March 20 the International Day of Hap-
piness a cruel irony to those of us
who were made stateless by the king,
who was an absolute monarch when we
were expelled.
Many of our ancestors were recruited
fromNepal in the mid-19th century to
cultivate the arable land of southern
Bhutan. We are known as Lhotshampa
literally, people of the south. The
Drukpas, the Buddhist elite, and the
Hindu Lhotshampa had coexisted, large-
ly in peace, until 1989, when the king in-
troduced a One Nation, One People
policy imposing Drukpa social norms on
everyone. The edict controlled the smal-
lest details of our public lives: howwe
ate, dressed and talked. The Nepali lan-
guage was banned in schools, and Hindu
pathshalas, or seminaries, which teach
the Sanskrit scriptures, were closed.
Protests demanding an end to the ab-
solute monarchy and persecution of the
Lhotshampa beginning in summer 1990
were quashed, and repression includ-
ing torture, sexual assault, evictions
and discriminatory firing intensified.
As part of the govern-
ments campaign of
intimidation in the
south, my school was
suddenly closed.
That day, the head-
master summoned us
to an assembly, an-
nounced that we
were to collect our
belongings and told
us to go home at
once. I passed my final months in
Bhutan not completing the fourth
grade, but helping to rear our animals.
One winter day in 1991, my mother
was in the kitchen, my father was shav-
ing and my siblings and I were
gathered for snacks. It must have been
noon I remember the buzzing of bees
leaving for their routine forage when
uniformed officers burst into the house
and seized our citizenship documents,
birth certificates and other papers.
They accused my father of waging war
against the government. They ordered
himto put on his bakkhu, the Drukpa
national outfit, which was still wet from
the wash that morning, and then
dragged himout, kicking himand slap-
ping him. He was taken with dozens of
our neighbors to a high school that had
been converted to a military camp.
My father was held for 91 days in a
small, dank cell. They pressed himdown
with heavy logs, pierced his fingers with
needles, served himurine instead of wa-
ter, forced himto chop firewood all day
with no food. Sometimes, they burned
dried chilies in his cell just to make
breathing unbearable. He agreed even-
tually to sign what were called volun-
tary migration forms and was given a
week to leave the country our family
had inhabited for four generations.
Not knowing when wed be back, we
set our animals free and left open the
doors and windows of the house. We
walked in spring showers to the border
with India, through forest and valleys.
At the border, the Indians, who wanted
nothing to do with us, piled us into trucks
and dumped us at the doorstep of Nepal.
We were among the 90,000 Bhutanese
refugees who flooded shelters in east-
ern Nepal at that time. The population
grewto more than 115,000, as people
kept trickling in and children were born.
My parents, a brother and I have called
these shelters our home for 21 years.
The original seven refugee camps
have shrunk to two, but 36,000 people
continue to live in misery here. More
than 80,000 have been resettled in other
countries; 68,000, including my wife,
most of my siblings and extended fam-
ily, have moved to the United States. I
expect to be able to join themvery soon.
Helping us, though, is not the same as
helping our cause: Every refugee who
is resettled eases the pressure on the
Bhutanese government to take respon-
sibility for, and eventually welcome
back, the population it displaced.
Bhutan became a constitutional mon-
archy in 2008, two years after King
Jigme Singye Wangchuck abdicated
the throne to his eldest son. To live up to
its promises of democracy and its repu-
tation as a purveyor of happiness, the
government must extend full civil
rights including citizenship and the
right to vote to all of the Lhotshampa
still in its borders. It also must allow
those Lhotshampa it expelled to return.
Instead, Bhutan has ignored our de-
mands; multiple rounds of talks between
Bhutan and Nepal over the status of the
Lhotshampa have yielded little progress.
The international community can no
longer turn a blind eye to this calamity.
The United Nations must insist that
Bhutan, a member state, honor its con-
vention on refugees, including respect-
ing our right to return.
Other countries bear responsibility,
too. Nepal, impoverished and internally
divided, is already home to large num-
bers of Tibetan refugees and other
stateless peoples, and has not wel-
comed the Lhotshampa, even though
we share an ancestry. Nor has it ad-
equately sought help fromother coun-
tries to manage its refugee problem. In-
dia should use its influence to pressure
Bhutan to do the right thing; it should
then reopen the roads it created to ac-
commodate the exodus of refugees
but this time to allowour safe return.
But until the world looks behind the
veil of the Shangri-La, I have no hope of
retracing my path home.
VIDHYAPATI MISHRA is the managing editor
of Bhutan News Service, a news service
for Bhutanese refugees. He wrote this es-
say fromthe Beldangi II refugee camp.
Obama is waiting for Kerry to achieve
real progress on reviving Israeli-Pales-
tinian talks before getting very involved.
We were
among the
90,000
Bhutanese
refugees who
flooded shel-
ters in east-
ern Nepal.
NICHOLAS BLECHMAN
In many
countries
there is a new
alienation,
a newyearn-
ing, and even-
tually this
energy finds
an outlet.
TUESDAY, JULY 2, 2013 | 7 THE GLOBAL EDITION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES
. . . .
18-20 September 2013, Christ Church, Oxford
Register your interest: www.globalhorizons.oxan.com
The Middle East:
Seizing the Initiative
Pierre Vimont
Executive Secretary General
European External Action Service
Ibrahim Kalin
Deputy Undersecretary
Prime Ministry of Turkey
Hesham Youssef
Chef de Cabinet
League of Arab States
Shifting global energy patterns, political instability and changing
priorities in US foreign policy are set to transform the role much
of the region plays on the world stage in the next ten years.
This is just one of over twenty sessions where leading academics and
speakers from politics and business will ofer insight and judgment on a
range of global issues at
Global Horizons: The 30th Oxford Analytica Conference
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commentary letters views
Paul
Krugman
Is life too easy for the unemployed? You
may not think so, and I certainly dont
think so. But that, remarkably, is what
many and perhaps most Republicans
believe. And theyre acting on that be-
lief: Theres a nationwide movement in
America under way to punish the un-
employed, based on the proposition that
we can cure unemployment by making
the jobless even more miserable.
Consider, for example, the case of
North Carolina. The state was hit hard
by the Great Recession, and its unem-
ployment rate, at 8.8 percent, is among
the highest in the nation, higher than in
long-suffering California or Michigan.
As is the case everywhere, many of the
jobless have been out of work for six
months or more, thanks to a national
environment in which there are three
times as many people seeking work as
there are job openings.
Nonetheless, the states government
has just sharply cut aid to the unem-
ployed. In fact, the Republicans con-
trolling that government were so eager
to cut off aid that they didnt just reduce
the duration of benefits; they also re-
duced the average weekly benefit, mak-
ing the state ineligible for about $700
million in federal aid to the long-term
unemployed.
Its quite a spectacle, but North Caro-
lina isnt alone: Anumber of other
states have cut unemployment benefits,
none at the price of losing federal aid.
And at the national level, Congress has
been allowing extended benefits intro-
duced during the economic crisis to ex-
pire, even though long-termunemploy-
ment remains at historic highs.
So whats going on here? Is it just
cruelty? Well, the G.O.P., which in many
states is denying health care to the poor
simply to spite President Obama, isnt
exactly overflowing with compassion.
But the war on the unemployed isnt mo-
tivated solely by cruelty; rather, its a
case of meanspiritedness converging
with bad economic analysis.
In general, modern conservatives be-
lieve that our national character is be-
ing sapped by social programs that, in
the memorable words of Paul Ryan, the
chairman of the House Budget Commit-
tee, turn the safety net into a ham-
mock that lulls able-bodied people to
lives of dependency and complacency.
More specifically, they believe that un-
employment insurance encourages job-
less workers to stay unemployed,
rather than taking available jobs.
Is there anything to this belief? The
average unemployment benefit in North
Carolina is $299 a week, pretax; some
hammock. So anyone who imagines that
unemployed workers are deliberately
choosing to live a life of leisure has no
idea what the experience of unemploy-
ment, and especially long-termunem-
ployment, is like. Still, there is some evi-
dence that unemployment benefits
make workers a bit more choosy in their
job search. When the economy is boom-
ing, this extra choosiness may raise the
non-accelerating-inflation unemploy-
ment rate the unemployment rate at
which inflation starts to rise, inducing
the Federal Reserve to raise interest
rates and choke off economic expansion.
All of this is, however, irrelevant to
our current situation, in which inflation
is not a concern and the Feds problem
is that it cant get interest rates low
enough. While cutting unemployment
benefits will make the unemployed
even more desperate, it will do nothing
to create more jobs which means
that even if some of those currently un-
employed do manage to find work, they
will do so only by taking jobs away from
those currently employed.
But wait what about supply and
demand? Wont making the unem-
ployed desperate put downward pres-
sure on wages? And wont lower labor
costs encourage job growth? No
thats a fallacy of composition. Cutting
one workers wage may help save his or
her job by making that worker cheaper
than competing workers; but cutting
everyones wages just reduces every-
ones income and it worsens the bur-
den of debt, which is one of the main
forces holding the economy back.
Oh, and lets not forget that cutting
benefits to the unemployed, many of
whomare living hand-to-mouth, will
lead to lower overall spending again,
worsening the economic situation, and
destroying more jobs. The move to slash
unemployment benefits, then, is coun-
terproductive as well as cruel; it will
swell the ranks of the unemployed even
as it makes their lives more miserable.
Can anything be done to reverse this
policy wrong turn? The people out to
punish the unemployed wont be dis-
suaded by rational argument; they
knowwhat they know, and no amount
of evidence will change their views. My
sense, however, is that the war on the
unemployed has been making so much
progress in part because it has been fly-
ing under the radar, with too many
people unaware of whats going on.
Well, nowyou know. And you should
be angry.
Roger
Cohen
GLOBALI ST
ELOUNDA, GREECE The unexamined
life is not worth living, said Socrates.
Pronounced of a Cretan summer even-
ing in an outdoor theater, with a breeze
wafting through the olive groves, the
thought is doubly arresting perhaps
because it is evident in such a setting
that we make poor choices in our lives
by not exposing ourselves more to such
beauty.
Another thing is apparent: South
European nations, the peripheral
ones in current parlance, have a hard-
ship-softener too little factored into as-
sessments of E.U. crisis the sun
even if Germany has the money. That is
one reason, along with the strength of
family ties and the underground econo-
my, why we have not seen a European
eruption along the Mediterranean, as
unemployment has soared.
Over the past three years, since
Greece hit the panic button, Europes
pain has been much examined, with in-
conclusive results. As Woody Allen
noted, What if the examined life turns
out to be a clunker as well?
The viewthat the 28-nation E.U., with
Croatia joining this week, and particu-
larly its 17-nation euro zone, is nowa
terminal clunker has become fashion-
able. The crisis that began in Greece
has been controlled for now, but much
of Europe, including France, is in reces-
sion. The questions triggered here
about the future of Europe, and its com-
mon currency, are unresolved.
The Union that was the European
miracle of the second half of the 20th
century nowembodies the malaise of
the 21st.
Acounterargument exists. It is that
the agony of the euro will end up illus-
trating Jean Monnets phrase that crises
are the great federators of history. The
planned European banking union, single
supervisory systemand fiscal harmon-
ization will prove to be the catalysts of
the Continents ever closer union.
I heard both the European break-up
and breakthrough views in equal mea-
sure during a conference here. What is
unquestionable is that Europe is living
its deepest unease since the end of the
Cold War.
France and Germany were the
twinned engines of European integra-
tion: France gave the political lead,
Germany the economic muscle. That is
over. German dominance over a drift-
ing France is so evident as to be almost
embarrassing.
The French can no longer persuade
themselves that the Union will be
France writ large, and so they are am-
bivalent. Germany, uncertain about
power because of the way it once used
it, is hesitant about assuming what it is:
Europes leading nation. It faces plenty
of misgivings, not least in Greece, about
any whiff of German assertiveness.
Britain might have stepped into this
void. Instead, it stepped out the way.
Under a Tory leader, in the grip of dif-
fuse anger spewing fromausterity, it
has gone on a euro-skeptic walkabout.
Areferendumlooks likely on continued
E.U. membership in 2017.
The deepest problemis social (with
the exception of the cohesive German
model). Healthy markets require an
equal dose of greed and fear. For a
while all the easy money in the euro
zone removed the fear factor. The rich
got wildly richer. Nowthe hangover
fromthe meltdown of 2008 persists in
far sharper formthan in the United
States, which responded better.
It is compounded by austerity, ex-
acerbated by strong feelings of in-
justice, fed by the fact that in countries
like Greece credit is not getting into
the real economy. Without credit there
can be no resumption of growth.
Massive fiscal adjustments have been
made but people do not believe the
worst is over and they blame the Un-
ion.
What, they ask, is this undemocratic
thing for? Not for our defense (peace is
taken for granted); not for our prosper-
ity (it has dwindled); not to build a
United States of Europe that will count
(the idea has become fanciful).
Ingratitude and short memories are
facts of life. The Union is suffering from
themat a time when the euro needs fed-
eralizing measures to be a credible cur-
rency. The question is whether these
needed unifying steps are politically
tenable as a populist anti-European
right is rising in France, under Marine
Le Pen, and elsewhere.
The federalizing path is achievable.
But it will require newleadership to
make the case. About 80 percent of the
worlds growth in the past five years
has been in developing countries. For a
Europe of dwindling importance to
break itself up would be to ignore the
course of history.
Europe needs a persuasive idea of its
future that can rebuild democratic sup-
port. It needs growth. For that it needs
competitiveness. These truths must be
told.
As the 100th anniversary of World
War I approaches, the European killing
fields of the 20th century fade. Their
story, and howthe Union stopped the
cycle of bloodshed, and howit later ce-
mented the freedomof ex-Communist
states, needs to be retold.
The euro is a political idea born of
calamitous European experience. Un-
raveling would provide a sharp remind-
er of the calamities. That truth also
needs to be retold. I can think of no one
better to do so than the winner of the
German election in September.
Crisis can still be the federator if
leaders have a sense of history and a
viewof the future that extends beyond
tomorrow.
You can followme on Twitter, or join me
on Facebook.
Booze as muse
Meanwhile
CHRI STOPHER BUCKLEY
My first real job in journalismwas as a
junior editor at Esquire, a magazine
with a venerable literary pedigree. I
imagined myself having three-martini
lunches with TomWolfe, and explaining
to Tom (surely we would be on a
first-name basis by the third martini)
that his latest 25,000-word article was
not bad, exactly, but needed another
run through the typewriter before we
could even think of publishing it.
This absurd, callowreverie was sum-
marily dashed by my first assignment.
I was told to call up someone famous
anyone famous and get his or her
favorite Bloody Mary recipe for the
summer issue. I called an old girlfriend
who had married a certifiably famous
movie director.
He only drinks Scotch neat, she
said. But well just make something
up. The ghost of Esquires founder,
Arnold Gingrich, winced over my
shoulder as she and I went to work de-
vising her famous husbands fictional
Bloody Mary. It ended up consisting of
20 or so ingredients, 15 of which con-
tained toxic levels of capsaicin. For
months after it was published, I lived in
fear that wed be sued for immolating
some poor readers esophagus.
I think back on my first shameful ven-
ture in legitimate journalism every
time I come across the latest improbable
recipe for some newcocktail. I dont
mean to imply that their creators are as
spurious as I was; theyre fun to read,
and the more improbable the better.
Kingsley Amis, author of the indis-
pensable Everyday Drinking, referred
to the genre as dipsography, the alco-
holic equivalent of pornography. Dipso-
graphy is continuing ed of the highest or-
der. Howsatisfying and knowing it is to
drop savvy remarks like Did you win-
terize your margarita this year?
At the same time, its best not to
overdo the dipsography, at the risk of
getting yourself a rep as a cocktail
bore, beer bore, aquavit bore, etc.
Who among us has not been held cap-
tive by a wine, single malt or vodka
bore? Thanks to the recent prolifera-
tion of boutique vodkas, it is nowpossi-
ble, indeed likely, to have your eyes as
frosted as a Grey Goose bottle while
someone holds forth at Homeric length
on potato versus grain versus molasses
versus organic wheat versus Australi-
an sugar cane. My eyes glazed over just
typing that sentence.
Booze for present purposes, let us
include in this category wine, beer, eau
de vie, moonshine, the blushful Hippo-
crene and all varieties of intoxicating li-
quid refreshment is a compelling sub-
ject. And dipsography has evolved pari
passu with the progress of the Internet.
Surfing a large wave of ethyl alcohol
recently, I came ashore on the Web site
of the Museumof the American Cock-
tail. The home page noted that it was
World Cocktail Week. Beneath that was
a notice: There are no seminars or
events scheduled at the current time.
Please check back later. Had I pos-
sessed hacking skills, Id have been
tempted to insert a hic some-
where in the last sen-
tence.
For classic literary
dipsography and
counter-dipsography
log off fromthe In-
ternet and turn to the
bookshelf. Roald
Dahls short story
Taste is the ulti-
mate takedown of the
wine bore. Arather sinister dinner
guest proposes to his host a contest: If
he identifies the wine the host is pour-
ing, he wins the hand of the hosts
daughter. If he fails, then the host gets
both his houses.
I wont ruin it for you; its white-
knuckle reading all the way to the fin-
ish. When Alfred A. Knopf read the sto-
ry in The NewYorker in 1951, he signed
Dahl to write a collection, and a bril-
liant career was born. Come to think of
it, surely the magazines most celebrat-
ed cartoon remains James Thurbers:
Its a nave domestic Burgundy with-
out any breeding, but I think youll be
amused by its presumption.
Benjamin Disraeli is not principally
known as a maker of bons mots, but in
his 1845 novel Sybil, he gives us Mr.
Mountchesneys unimprovable re-
mark: I rather like bad wine. One gets
so bored with good wine.
Continuing on the prime ministerial
theme, Amiss Everyday Drinking
provides the recipe for Queen Victorias
Tipple: 1/2 tumbler red wine and
brace yourself Scotch.
Europes truths
War on the unemployed
I have it on the authority of Colm
Brogan, he writes, that the Great
Queen was violently opposed to teeto-
talism, consenting to have one cleric
promoted to a deanery only if he prom-
ised to stop advocating the pernicious
heresy.
Elsewhere, the Muse of Booze, as
Christopher Hitchens calls Mr. Amis in
his introduction to the reissue of
Everyday Drinking, gives us recipes
for Paul Fussells Milk Punch (to be
drunk immediately on rising, in lieu of
eating breakfast) and Evelyn Waughs
Noonday Reviver (1 hefty shot gin, 1
bottle Guinness, ginger beer ... I should
think two doses is the limit).
Amis was author of probably the
most immortal hangover scene in all lit-
erature. (The one suffered by Tom
Wolfes louche British journalist Peter
Fallowin Bonfire of the Vanities is
up there.) Amis demurely refrains from
mention of his own masterpiece mo-
ment in Lucky Jim, though one of his
cocktail recipes is named after the title.
He does however give us three infal-
lible hangover cures, adding though
I have not tried any of the three. The
first two are: Go down the mine on the
early-morning shift at the coal-face
and Go up for half an hour in an open
aeroplane, needless to say with a non-
hungover person at the controls.
I mentioned Christopher Hitchens a
moment ago. It seems fitting that he
should provide our nightcap. He and I
once had a weekday lunch that began at
1 p.m. and ended at 11:30 p.m. I spent
the next three weeks begging to be eu-
thanized; he went home and wrote a
dissertation on Orwell. Christopher
himself was a muse of booze, though
dipsography and fancy cocktails were
not his thing. Christopher was a
straightforward whiskey and martini
man. In his memoir, Hitch-22, he
made a solid case for liquidity.
Alcohol makes other people less te-
dious, he writes, and food less bland,
and can help provide what the Greeks
called entheos, or the slight buzz of in-
spiration when reading or writing.
Tempted as I am, I wont close by
saying, Ill drink to that, because I
just found this recipe for a kumquat and
clove gin and tonic, and Imthinking it
might be more fun to drink to that.
CHRISTOPHER BUCKLEY is the author of a
forthcoming book of essays, But
Enough About You.
Who among
us has not
been held
captive by a
wine, single
malt or vodka
bore?
BY CHAPPATTE IN NZZ AM SONNTAG (ZURICH). GLOBE CARTOON
INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE 8 | TUESDAY, JULY 2, 2013
. . . .
world news middle east
BY DENISE GRADY
As the scientists peered into the dark-
ness, their headlamps revealed an eerie
sight. Hundreds of eyes glinted back at
them from the walls and ceiling. They
had discovered, in a crumbling, long-
abandoned village half-buried in sand
near a remote town in southwestern
Saudi Arabia, a roosting place for bats.
It was an ideal place to set up traps.
The search for bats is part of a inves-
tigation into a deadly new viral disease
that has drawn scientists from around
the world to Saudi Arabia. The virus,
first detected there last year, is known
to have infected at least 77 people, in-
cluding 40 who died, in eight countries.
The illness, called MERS, for Middle
Eastern respiratory syndrome, is
caused by a coronavirus, a relative of
the virus that caused severe acute res-
piratory syndrome, or SARS. That virus
originated in China and caused an inter-
national outbreak in 2003 that infected
at least 8,000 people, including nearly
800 who died.
Critical questions about MERS re-
main unanswered. Scientists do not
know where it came from, where the vi-
rus exists in nature or why it has ap-
peared now. They do not know how
people are being exposed to it or wheth-
er it is becoming more contagious and
could erupt into a much larger out-
break.
The disease almost certainly origin-
ated with one or more people contract-
ing the virus from animals probably
bats but scientists do not know how
many times that kind of spillover to hu-
mans has occurred, nor how likely it is
to keep happening.
There is urgency to the hunt for an-
swers. Half the known cases have been
fatal, though the real death rate is prob-
ably lower, because there almost cer-
tainly have been mild cases that have
gone undetected. But the virus still wor-
ries health experts, because it can cause
such severe disease and has shown an
alarming ability to spread among pa-
tients in a hospital.
The disease is a chilling example of
what healthexperts call emerginginfec-
tions, caused by viruses or other organ-
isms that suddenly find their way into
humans. Many of those diseases are
zoonotic, meaning they are normally
harbored by animals but somehow
manage to jump species.
As the population continues to grow,
were bumping up against wildlife, and
theyhappentocarrysomenastyviruses
weve never seen before, said Peter
Daszak, adiseaseecologist andthepres-
ident of EcoHealth Alliance, a scientific
group that studies links between human
health, wildlife and the environment.
Saudi Arabiahas hadthemost patients
so far, but cases have also originated in
Jordan, Qatar and the United Arab Emir-
ates. Travelers from the Arabian penin-
sula have taken the disease to Britain,
France, Italy and Tunisia and have infec-
ted a fewpeople in those countries.
The illness can be spread by coughs
and sneezes, or contaminated surfaces,
and people with chronic diseases seem
especially vulnerable. Acluster of cases
that beganina Saudi hospital inApril ul-
timately involved 23 people, including
several family members and health
workers.
Some health experts have suggested
that MERS, like SARS, may fade away.
The SARS outbreak erupted in early
2003, but had ended by that summer.
Much of the success in containing it was
attributed to infection control in hospit-
als and also to eliminating animals like
civet cats, which were thought to be in-
fecting people in markets where the an-
imals were being sold live to be killed
and eaten.
But Dr. Allison McGeer, a microbiolo-
gist and infectious disease specialist at
Mount Sinai Hospital in Toronto who is
also part of the team that studied the
Saudi hospital outbreak, saidthere were
no signs that MERS was going away.
Absolutely not, she said. There are
ongoing cases of disease acquired in the
community. The first we know about is
April 2012 in Jordan. There has been a
steady and continuing number of cases.
The fact that the disease has appar-
ently emerged in geographically dispar-
ate places, with widely scattered out-
breaks in four Middle Eastern
countries, also makes Dr. McGeer doubt
that it is simply going to fizzle out.
Finding out where inthe environment
the disease is coming from might make
it possible to tell people how to avoid it.
Bats are the leading suspect, because
they are a reservoir of SARS and carry
other coronaviruses with genetic simil-
arities to the MERS virus. Bats could be
transmitting the disease directly to
people, or they might be spreading it to
some other animal that then infects hu-
mans.
Last October, to test the theory, a
team of scientists from the Saudi Min-
istry of Health, Columbia University
and EcoHealth Alliance began scouring
towns near where cases of MERS had
been reported, showing people pictures
of bats and asking if they had seen any.
They struck pay dirt when one man led
them to an abandoned village said to be
hundreds of years old. It was there, in
the inky darkness, that they found a
small roomthat had become the roost of
about 500 bats.
The scientists set up nets to catch
themwhen they flewout at dusk to hunt
insects, then spent the night testing
themfor the MERS virus. The bats were
released after the testing.
The animals can weigh as little as four
grams, or one-seventh of an ounce, and
a bat that size may have an eight-inch
wingspan the equivalent of 20 centi-
meters.
Theyre mostly wing, said Kevin J.
Olival, a biologist with EcoHealth Alli-
ance. Theyre little flying fur balls.
It takes about 15 minutes to process a
bat to weigh and measure it, swab it
for saliva and feces samples, and collect
some blood and a tiny plug of skin from
a wing for DNA testing to confirm its
species.
Bats do not much appreciate all this
medical attention. They bite, and in ad-
dition to potentially carrying MERS,
they may harbor rabies and other vir-
uses.
Hundreds of bats have beentested, he
said, but it is too soon to disclose the re-
sults.
The team has also tested camels,
goats, sheep and cats, which might act
as intermediate hosts, picking up the vi-
rus frombats and then infecting people.
One reason for suspecting camels is
that a MERS patient from the United
Arab Emirates had been around a sick
camel shortly before falling ill. But that
animal was never tested.
If animals do harbor the virus, does it
make themill? Do they infect people by
coughing? Or do they pass the virus in
urine or feces and infect people who
clean their stalls? The answers do not
come easily.
Camels are tough, let me tell you,
said Dr. Jonathan H. Epstein, a veterin-
arian with EcoHealth Alliance, explain-
ing howdifficult it is to test them.
Theyre ornery. It takes a certain
kind of person to be able to wrangle a
camel. Theyre strong, theyre fast, they
bite really hard.
So far, he said, none of the animals
we looked at were overtly sick.
Testing may identify animal species
that carry the virus, but that will not im-
mediately explain why it has emerged
now.
The most common reason that wild-
life viruses make the jump into people is
that we do things that bring us and our
livestock into closer contact with wild-
life, such as the wildlife trade or agricul-
tural intensification, Dr. Epstein said.
And, Dr. Olival added, finding the an-
imals that carry the disease is not just
an academic exercise.
Its a way to inform public health
measures, he said, to try to stop zo-
onotic diseases before they emerge into
humans.
Following the trail of a deadly newvirus
Research draws teams
from around the world to
a corner of Saudi Arabia
Generals in Egypt give the president an ultimatum
forces had failed to reach consensus
and resolve the crisis on their own by a
deadline set last week in a statement
from the defense minister, Gen. Abdul
Fattah el-Sisi.
The wasting of more time will only
create more division and conflict, the
statement continued, pledging that the
armed forces own road map would
include the participation of all the sin-
cere national factions and trends. The
general added a special mention for in-
clusion of the youth, whomthe gener-
als called the exploders of their glori-
ous revolution.
Manyof thedemonstratorsnowcalling
for Mr. Morsis ouster spent months last
year marching to demand that the mili-
tary give up its hold on power. And at a
continuing demonstration outside the
presidential palace to call for Mr. Morsis
exit, marchers hadbeenchantingagainst
both Brotherhood rule and military
rule when the announcement came out.
But different cheers broke out imme-
diately. The army and the people are
one hand! protesters chanted, recall-
ing the heady days immediately after
the overthrowof Mr. Mubarak when the
military was first hailed as a savior.
Many said their protests would con-
tinue. I think its late, said Hassan Is-
mail, a local organizer. There has been
a lot of blood."
He rejected any compromise that
would leave Mr. Morsi in office, and at
the same time sought to distinguish the
anti-Morsi movement fromthe military.
We dont want to be against the army,
Mr. Ismail said. And we dont want the
army to be against us.
The Health Ministry said earlier on
Monday that 16 people had died in the
protests, including eight in a battle out-
side the MuslimBrotherhoodheadquar-
ters, most of them from gunshot
wounds. All of those killed outside the
headquarters were young, including
one who was 14 and another who was 19,
the ministry said. One died of heat-re-
lated causes at a demonstration outside
the presidential palace.
After dawn broke Monday, some dem-
onstrators remained in Tahrir Square,
epicenter of Egypts ArabSpringrevolu-
tion, resting under impromptu shelters.
While much of the protest elsewhere in
Cairo seemed peaceful, activists report-
ed dozens of sexual assaults on women
in Tahrir Square overnight.
The fiercest confrontation seemed to
be at the Brotherhood headquarters,
where members of the organizationwho
were trapped inside fired bursts of bird-
shot at the attackers and wounded sev-
eral of them.
After pelting the almost-empty build-
ing for hours with stones, gasoline
bombs and fireworks, the attackers
doused its logo with kerosene and set it
onfire, witnesses said, seemingto throw
what appeared to be sandbags used to
fortify the windows out onto the street.
It was not immediately clear what be-
came of the Brotherhood members, but
shortly before the building was
stormed, armored government vehicles
were seeninthe area, possiblyas part of
an evacuation team.
The scale of the demonstrations, just
one year after crowds in the same
square cheered Mr. Morsis inaugura-
tion, appeared to exceed even the mass
street protests in the heady final days of
the uprising that overthrew Mr.
Mubarak in 2011.
Clashes between Mr. Morsis oppo-
nents andsupporters broke out insever-
al cities around the country, killing at
least sevenpeople one inthe southern
town of Beni Suef, four in the southern
townof Assiut andtwoinCairoandin-
juring hundreds. Protesters ransacked
Brotherhood offices around the country.
Demonstrators said they were angry
about the lackof public security, the des-
perate state of the Egyptian economy
and an increase in sectarian tensions.
But the common denominator across
the country was the conviction that Mr.
Morsi had failed to transcend his roots
in the Brotherhood, an insular Islamist
group officially outlawed under Mr.
Mubarak that is now considered
Egypts most formidable political force.
The scale of the protests across the
country delivered a sharp rebuke to the
groups claim that its victories in
Egypts newly open parliamentary and
presidential elections gave it a mandate
to speak for most Egyptians.
Enough is enough, said Alaa al-As-
wany, a prominent Egyptian writer who
was among the many at the protests
who had supported the president just a
year ago. It has been decided for Mr.
Morsi. Now, we are waiting for him to
understand.
Shadi Hamid, a researcher at the
Brookings Doha Center in Qatar who
studies the Muslim Brotherhood
closely, said: The Brotherhood under-
estimated its opposition. He added,
This is going to be a real moment of
truth for the Brotherhood.
Mr. Morsi and Brotherhood leaders
have often ascribed much of the opposi-
tion in the streets to a conspiracy led by
Mubarak-era political and financial
elites determined to bring them down,
and they have resisted concessions in
the belief that the oppositions only real
motive is the Brotherhoods defeat. But
no conspiracy can bring millions to the
streets, and by Sunday night some ana-
lysts said the protests would send a
message to other Islamist groups
around the region in the aftermath of
the Arab Spring.
It is a cautionary note: Dont be too
eager for power, and try to think how
you do it, Mr. Hamid said, faulting the
Egyptian Brotherhood for seeking to
take most of the power for itself all at
once. I hear concern from Islamists
around the region about how the Broth-
erhood is tainting Islamism.
Mr. Morsis administration appeared
caught by surprise. There are
protests; this is a reality, Omar Amer, a
spokesman for the president, said at a
midnight news conference. We dont
underestimate the scale of the protests,
and we dont underestimate the scale of
the demands.
He said the administration was open
to discussing any demands consistent
with the Constitution, but he also
seemed exasperated, sputtering ques-
tions back at the journalists. Do you
have a better idea? Do you have an ini-
tiative? he asked. Suggest a solution
and were willing to consider it serious-
ly.
Mayy El Sheikh contributed reporting.
EGYPT, FROM PAGE 1
TARA TODRAS-WHITEHILL FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
In a fierce confrontation on Monday, protesters burned the emblem of the Muslim Brotherhood at the groups headquarters in Cairo after storming the building.
The Brotherhood
underestimated its opposition.
This is going to be a real
moment of truth.
Scientists do not know where
the virus came from, where it
exists in nature or why it has
appeared now.
TUESDAY, JULY 2, 2013 | 9 THE GLOBAL EDITION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES
. . . .
ADVERTISING SUPPLEMENT
LEARNING FROMCRISIS | Economic, political, humanitarian and moral dimensions
For healthy economies and societies, global action is needed, says President Nazarbayev
O
nce more, Kazakhstans head of
state, Nursultan Nazarbayev, has
called for firm and timely action to
stem and eventually reverse economic, so-
cial and environmental setbacks in the
world. He spoke at the opening of the Sixth
Astana Economic Forum in the countrys
capital on May 23, which for the first time in-
cluded the G-Global World Anticrisis Confer-
ence under the auspices of the United Na-
tions. Together, the events attracted more
than 10,000 participants, some 3,000 of
whom had come from 132 countries
abroad.
The president noted a number of les-
sons [to be] taken into account from the
response to the ongoing economic crisis.
Only recently, late last year, everybody in
the world was convinced that the first uni-
versal crisis of the 21st century was a
turned page in our history, President Naz-
arbayev told the audience. This is what
many financial institutions have persist-
ently argued. But there turned out to be no
place for euphoria.
President Nazarbayev listed what he
called an artificial blow-up of financial
bubbles, a craving for easy money, an
absence of proper responsibility of nation-
al financial institutions and the weakness
of global financial management as the
main reasons for the continuing downturn.
Hence, the world crisis cannot be con-
sidered as finished, he said.
A second lesson, he said, is the need for
global action, which has not been addressed
so far. Kazakhstan, as you know, has car-
ried out a successful anticrisis program, he
told the forum. It ensured saving jobs and
positive dynamics of economic growth. But,
he warned: Not every single anticrisis rec-
ommendation developed within the G-20
has been implemented. Many states have
taken protectionist measures. This caused
a slowdown of global growth, and drops in
prices on global and regional markets. The
volumes of cross-border lending and invest-
ment have decreased and now amount to
just 60 percent of the precrisis level.
The tenacity of the crisis has also
caused the persistence of
what President Nazarbayev
dubbed a sharp deteriora-
tion of peoples social feel-
ings, resulting in protests
and sometimes violence
with the Arab Spring repre-
senting extreme disaffec-
tion. The International Labor
Organization forecasts over
200 million unemployed in
the world this year alone,
the president observed.
Early this year, Europe had
over 26 million unemployed,
which is 1.5 times as many as five years
ago. Many countries cut government
spending on education, health care and hu-
man-potential development. All of these
are clear indicators of a global social crisis
threatening to lower the standards of living
even in developed countries.
A major element contributing to the
overall deterioration is a lack of solidarity
between individual states, he said. The so-
cial injustice existing in many countries is
H
owcan Europes and in particular
the euro zones economies be re-
vived, and howcan emerging econo-
mies avoid the pitfalls that they have expe-
rienced? That was the main question
dominating lively debates and garnering a
remarkably high level of consensus during
the Sixth Astana Economic Forum held on
May 22-24. Nobel laureates and other aca-
demics, senior politicians and former gov-
ernment leaders, entrepreneurial celebri-
ties and supranational organizations
representatives discussed the structures
of current problems and offered partial or
comprehensive solutions.
Their answers to burning questions ap-
peared to be far more complicated than
news headlines suggest and indicated that
a full response to the current deadlocks in
the world involves not just financial and eco-
nomic issues, but ecological, security and
social issues as well. Many speakers criti-
cized political decision-makers on national
levels for paying lip service to coordinated
action even as they put their national, and
often contradicting, interests at the top of
the list and for circumventing joint measures
meant to counter negative global trends.
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who headed
the International Monetary Fund from2007
to 2011, criticized E.U. leaders for claiming
to promote employment and economic dy-
namism while in fact undermining the pro-
cess. They underestimated the situation,
he said, and did not do what any business-
man or entrepreneur usually does: pay the
debts and make a fresh start. The attitude
in the E.U. was as follows: they all believed
that things would go on the same way, that
nothing would change. The solution was
constantly postponed. And it grew like a
snowball.
He joined the chorus calling for a Euro-
pean banking union but at the same time
declared himself pessimistic on the out-
look. The basis of local politics is: the smal-
ler the risk, the better the consequences,
he said. But we need to take risks. We can-
not solve problems without risks.
Strauss-Kahn added later: We need a
body that will direct the systemand serve as
a locomotive. Without coordination from a
fiscal point of view, we will not be able to
move forward. He continued: The problem
is not only with debt. The problem is with
competitiveness. And the problemof debt is
only protection in order to avoid the prob-
lems of competitiveness. The golden age of
Europe has passed, and keeping up the
standard of living needs to be supported on
the same level. I think during the next four to
five years in this part of the world growth will
be slow and social tensions will persist.
In various sessions at the forum, special
ASTANA ECONOMIC FORUM| Governments, business community and civil society
States must work together to revitalize growth and create jobs, say forum delegates
emphasis was placed on Kazakhstans im-
minent entry to the World Trade Organiza-
tion. In one session on Kazakhstans pros-
pects for agricultural development as a
member of the WTO, the organizations
deputy director general, Alejandro Jara, said:
Kazakhstan has achieved significant pro-
gress toward joining the WTO. At the final
stage of negotiations concerning Kazakh-
stans membership in the WTO, issues of
state support of agriculture, in particular ex-
port subsidies, sanitary and phytosanitary
standards are under discussion.
Another topic that many speakers
touched upon was the formation of the Cus-
toms Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakh-
stan, which is poised to become the Eurasi-
an Economic Union.
Kairat Kelimbetov, deputy prime minister
of Kazakhstan, with economic relations and
development in his portfolio, told the forum:
One of the main advantages of creating the
Customs Union is a large market with 170
million people and about $2 trillion in capital,
which is a strong signal for our partners and
investors to invest capital for free develop-
ment as part of the common economic
space, where administrative barriers are
eliminated and the conditions for doing busi-
ness are simplified. Accelerated formation
of the Customs Union and common eco-
nomic space has minimized the con-
sequences of the global economic crisis and
has become an additional source of eco-
nomic development for our countries.
Kelimbetov outlined the benefits of the
formation of the EEUand its eventual expan-
sion. The creation of the Eurasian Econom-
ic Union will ensure the free movement of
goods, services, capital and labor and the
elimination of barriers remaining in their
way, he said. The formation of the EEU by
2015 is a strategic direction of further inte-
gration, provides participants in Eurasian
economic integration with great opportuni-
ties and opens up great prospects and max-
imal use of potential, which is the main task
for implementing the main directions of fur-
ther integration.
Praise for the forums host country came
from many participants. Romano Prodi,
former prime minister of Italy and former
president of the European Commission,
noted in an interview with Kazinform: The
economy is like a house with the foundation
and the walls: Kazakhstan has everything. I
mean, these are all prerequisites for Ka-
zakhstan to become a highly developed
state in the near future. In addition, I see that
Kazakhstan has strong government sup-
port for the middle class. You have built
schools and other social facilities. This is
also a prerequisite for the successful
development of the economy.
Appreciation for the dynamic role Ka-
zakhstan is playing in the worlds quest to
overcome economic stagnation also came
from Vuk Jeremic, this years president of
the United Nations General Assembly. Ka-
zakhstan is a regional pillar of stability and
progress, he said. It has prioritized the
education of its youth and has created
strong social and health-care safety nets.
The nations athletes have triumphed in suc-
cessive Olympic Games, and its scientists
have helped achieve significant break-
throughs in a number of areas. The econo-
my is developing rapidly, in no small mea-
sure due to the wise and responsible use of
the riches gained from abundant hydrocar-
bon resources. This has facilitated growth in
other sectors, such as agriculture. It has
also enabled funding for strategic infrastruc-
ture projects, including the construction of a
Western Europe-Western China energy and
transportation corridor. The ancient Silk
Road, which served as the main trade route
across the Eurasian landmass for centuries,
will soon be reborn. As a result, Kazakhstan
will integrate more fully into the global soci-
ety, serving as a critical bridge between East
and West. CHARLES van der LEEUW
Among the participants at the Astana Economic
Forum, May 22-24, were, from left to right:
Romano Prodi, former prime minister of Italy and
former president of the European Commission;
Alejandro Jara, deputy director general of the
World Trade Organization; and Dominique
Strauss-Kahn, former managing director of the
International Monetary Fund.
EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION | Expansion seen by Customs Union members Kazakshtan, Russia and Belarus
Signing of agreement on Eurasian Commission is a milestone for economic integration
O
n May 29, Astana hosted a summit
of five heads of state of former So-
viet republics, confirming the impor-
tance of the Kazakh capital as a center of
top-level diplomacy. Meetings were held be-
tween President Nursultan Nazarbayev of
Kazakhstan and his peers Vladimir Putin of
Russia, Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus,
Ukraines Viktor Yanukovych and Almazbek
Atambayev of Kyrgyzstan.
Presidents Nazarbayev, Putin and
Lukashenko whose countries belong to a
Customs Union that is to become the Euras-
ian Economic Union by 2015 signed the
final agreement on the establishment and
installation of a Eurasian Economic Com-
mission. The commission takes inspiration
from the European Commission but has
considerably more power, including the right
to impose the adoption of national legisla-
tion in line with directives of the Eurasian
Economic Union.
Consultations were held with President
Yanukovych of Ukraine and President
Atambayev of Kyrgyzstan that resulted in
the official entry of the two countries, with
observer status, into the Customs Union
and Eurasian Economic Commission. The ul-
timate goal is their integration into the bloc
as full members.
Changes have been made to the regula-
tions on the activities of the Eurasian Eco-
nomic Commission for international negoti-
ations on trade, President Nazarbayev said
in a report by the state news agency, Kazin-
form. This document will enable the CU
member states to cooperate using the com-
mission platform. Today, the concept of a
joint agricultural policy within the Customs
Union has been approved between the
member states of the common economic
space. A common information system be-
tween the member states concerning mutu-
al and external trade has also been agreed
upon. An agreement has also been reached
relating to informational cooperation in the
field of statistics. A separate unit that we
have reviewed is the prospect of expanding
the CU and common economic space.
President Nazarbayev did not downplay
the enormousness of the task ahead and
signaled that it can be accomplished only if
member states are determined to proceed
toward cooperation and integration in a rap-
idly globalizing world, where individual com-
petitiveness is spawning a need for collec-
tive competitiveness.
In a separate Kazinform news report, he
said: Today is our first meeting at the
highest level within the framework of agree-
ments. The main thing is our common desire
for further integration. He stressed that in-
tegration should be beneficial for all partic-
ipants: States are going to integrate in or-
der to get something that they cannot get
being alone. The integration process should
be evolutionary. It is necessary to work to-
gether, to seek common ground and to do it
step by step.
During the summit, President Lukashen-
ko of Belarus paid special tribute to the host
country for the event.
We see Kazakhstan as the most at-
tractive and prospective partner for Be-
larus, Lukashenko said on his countrys na-
tional television station. We are ready to
participate and are already participating in
the modernization of your country. We have
a lot of projects and almost no problems in
their implementation.
In the run-up to the Astana meeting,
some participants attended a meeting of
the Collective Security Treaty Organization
member states in the presence of Presi-
dents Nazarbayev, Putin and Atambayev
and President Emomali Rahmon of
Tajikistan. On the agenda was the imminent
withdrawal of American and other troops
from Afghanistan, and challenges related to
territorial security.
CHARLES van der LEEUW
From left to right: President Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine, President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Almazbek Atambayev of Kyrgyzstan at a summit in Astana
on May 29. A Eurasian Economic Commission was set up with Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus as members, and Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan as observers.
also caused by financial and economic
inefficiency, he added. National anticrisis
plans cushioned the consequences of the
crisis but were not followed by efficient
root-targeting actions on a global level.
Then there is the monetary element,
which he said has been virtually ignored. Ac-
cording to President Nazarbayev, the four
parameters to heed in taking action are le-
gitimacy, democracy, efficient controllability
and responsibility. He added: To this day,
there have been neither efficient global an-
ticrisis mechanisms nor a reli-
able global reserve currency
or a group of regional curren-
cies. Insufficient will and re-
sponsibility were present to
take radical decisions.
The main reason the
worlds nations largely lack
readiness to take joint action
simply comes down to a lack
of trust, he suggested.
In President Nazarbayevs
words: I fully share the view-
point that the global crisis
primarily has been a crisis of
trust. There is no trust between global finan-
cial institutions and national states, be-
tween the actors of the financial sector and
the real economy. [] In the 21st century,
the world needs a new economic model. It
should be based primarily on a fair and just
global financial system free of deception, ir-
responsibility and wastefulness.
Calling for a pursuit for a sense of pro-
portion, President Nazarbayev explained:
First of all, the financial sector cannot and
must not develop in isolation from the real
sector, at both the global and national
levels. A situation such as prior to the crisis,
when the derivatives market turnover was
eight times higher than the entire planets
GDP, is suicidal for the global economy.
Second, it is important to resolve the issue
of global control over offshore zones. The
volume of funds that moved out of national
economies to offshore zones, or tax havens,
amounts to up to $30 trillion. These funds
can be considered time bombs that can det-
onate at any minute.
Stressing the economic, political, hu-
manitarian and moral dimensions of the
ongoing crisis, President Nazarbayev noted
that a new global economy is unthinkable
without establishing a new, just world or-
der. Calling on the United Nations, the G-8
forum of the worlds eight wealthiest coun-
tries and the wider G-20 countries to facili-
tate the buildup of such an order, the pres-
ident added: This includes the
development of a functioning mechanism
of a new global financial system and the
establishment of a global regulator that
would set the common rules of the game.
President Nazarbayev said that Kazakh-
stan has proved able to act as a catalyst
and an example of how to create new soci-
eties. Kazakhstan appeared on the politic-
al world map just over two decades ago, he
told the forum. We were starting everything
from the ground up, and today the achieve-
ments of our economy are acknowledged by
all. The key goal is to transform Kazakhstan
into one of the top 30most developed coun-
tries in the world, where progress is based
on innovative economic and social prin-
ciples. The most important among themis a
harmonious development of the economy-
energy-ecology triad.
Touching upon the need for new ecolo-
gical directions under the shadow of global
warming and depletion of traditional energy
resources, President Nazarbayev noted that
the 2017 Worlds Fair is to be held in Astana
under the theme Energy of the Future.
The coming recovery of the global
economy from the crisis will inevitably lead
to even more massive growth of produc-
tion and consumption, the president
warned. The transition to green energy
and the introduction of green technologies
is a growing vector of the global economy.
Despite possessing huge natural wealth,
including hydrocarbons, Kazakhstan is de-
termined to actively develop renewable
energy resources.
Notwithstanding all of these concerns
and warnings, President Nazarbayev said
he was confident that the world will not
plunge into a lasting recession and that it is
just a matter of fashioning a cohesive re-
sponse to fundamental global changes to
preserve harmony and improve the lives of
all people.
In his conclusion, he told the forum: The
21st century is taking its course, condensing
time and distance. The development of a
new type of global economy, new principles
of international relations and new values of
social life are under way. Therefore, today it
is important to find the right solutions to
global problems.
CHARLES van der LEEUW
In the 21st
century, the world
needs a new
economic model.
It should be
based primarily
on a fair and just
global financial
system
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Kazakhstan on the world stage
Astana Economic Forum
Kazakhstan on the world stage: Astana Economic Forumwas produced by the IHT
Creative Solutions department and did not involve the newspapers reporting or editorial
departments. It was sponsored by the Economic Research Institute JSC and the display
advertiser. Text by CHARLES VAN DER LEEUW and JOE URBANAS.
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INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE 10 | TUESDAY, JULY 2, 2013
. . . .
ADVERTISING SUPPLEMENT
Kazakhstan on the world stage
Astana Economic Forum
The Astana Economic Forums G-Global recommendations for G-20 leaders
T
he world economy after the crisis con-
tinues to face a number of problems.
To resolve the situation, it is neces-
sary to coordinate the response of the
Group of 20 governments in order to ensure
the sustainability of the recovery of the glob-
al economy.
We, the participants of the Astana Eco-
nomic Forum, welcome the initiative of the
Russian Federation to host the oncoming
G-20 summit. The Astana forum in substan-
tial sense becomes a proponent of a wide
Eurasian vision of the problems of global
development.
We have discussed the issues and chal-
lenges of global development and stimulat-
ing new economic growth as well as other
key issues on the G-20 summits agenda.
Over 10,000 participants attended the
Astana Economic Forum, including represen-
tatives of international institutions (theUnited
Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the
World Bank, the Asian Development Bank,
the European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development, among others), government
officials, Nobel laureates and representa-
tives of expert and business communities.
The new format of dialogue within the
framework of the Astana forum, called the
G-Global, received broad support. Since its
inception in January 2012, this Internet plat-
formhas been visited by more than 3 million
people from 160 countries.
We are offering the following recom-
mendations to the G-20 leaders, taking into
account the suggestions of participants in
the Astana Economic Forum and the free In-
ternet community. These recommendations
were developed in accordance with the
framework of the 2013 G-20 summit.
I. EFFECTIVE REGULATION
FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH
The main directions of effective regula-
tion are linked to the reformation of financial
regulation, strengthening multilateral trade
and ensuring the sustainable development
of energy markets.
In order toensure the stability of the post-
crisis recovery of the global economy, G-20
should contribute to the creation of a unified
system of global financial regulation. Such a
systemshould ensure an optimal balance of
restrictive and stimulating measures in order
to ensure stable development.
Reforming financial regulation
and supervision
Recommendation 1: It is necessary to
stabilize each national economy while
minimizing the negative spillover effects
of the national macroeconomic policies
on the rest of the world.
In this context, coordination of monetary
policies in the G-20 should remain one of the
main directions of international cooperation.
Recommendation 2: Both developed
anddevelopingcountriesneedtofindsolu-
tions to problems of global imbalances.
Large developing countries with perma-
nent current account surpluses are moving
toward expansionary macro policies in order
to sustain economic growth. In this case, the
governments of these countries need to as-
sess the impact of investment decisions in
order to reduce the potential risks of internal
imbalances.
Developed countries with a constant cur-
rent account deficit should decrease expen-
ditures, without decreasing investments in
research or physical and human capital.
Recommendation 3: The national and
regional regulation and supervision of fi-
nancial institutions should be based on
similar principles and concepts in order
to facilitate coordination and avoid regu-
latory arbitrage.
International associations of regulators
such as the Financial Stability Forum, the
Bank for International Settlements, the Inter-
national Organization of Securities Commis-
sions and the International Association of In-
suranceSupervisors must expandcollegiality
in decision-making and harmonize concepts
in the area of financial regulation.
Recommendation 4: Developed coun-
tries should evaluate and minimize the
risks of the discontinuation of programs
of quantitative easing.
To date, quantitative-easing programs
have played their part, giving impetus to eco-
nomic growth in some developed countries.
In this regard, the G-20 is advised to assess
thelong-termeffects of thediscontinuationof
these unprecedented anticrisis programs.
Recommendation 5: Governments
should regulate and supervise the shad-
ow banking sector.
Despite attempts to regulate the shad-
ow banking sector (hedge funds, private
equity investment, investment banking,
money market funds, primary dealers of
government bond markets, etc.), it contin-
ues to expand its scope. In this context, the
question remains as to whether Basel III
standards should be extended and applied
to this part of the financial sector.
Recommendation 6: Develop inter-
national standards for ranking and rating
agencies.
In order to reduce systemic distortions in
risk evaluation of the assets in favor of cer-
taincountries, it is necessary todevelopinter-
national rating standards and standards for
rating agencies, as well as to provide uniform
international regulation of rating agencies.
Strengthening international trade
Recommendation 7: Complete the ne-
gotiations of the Doha Round of the
World Trade Organization.
We once again appeal to bring the ques-
tion raised 12 years ago to its logical
conclusion.
Recommendation 8: Establishment of
specialized commissions on legal settle-
ment of transit policies is needed not only
at the regional level, but also on a global
scale. This issue is of utmost importance for
landlocked countries.
Recommendation 9: Ensuring fair and
equal competition on international agri-
cultural markets.
Recommendation 10: Further inte-
gration of countries into a variety of re-
gional groups/free economic zones/other
associations that allow free trade and other
favorable conditions is highly desirable and,
in some cases, the best possible way to re-
cover from the crisis.
In these circumstances, the G-20 coun-
tries are encouraged to advise countries on
the institutional design of flexible and open
regional trade associations.
Recommendation 11: Support the
G-20 initiatives to counter protection-
ismin international trade.
We welcome the initiative of the G-20
countries to impose a moratorium on new
protectionist measures in international
trade until the end of 2014 and propose to
extend it until the end of 2015.
Stable development of energy markets
Recommendation 12: Transition to a
green economy.
To achieve a transition to a green econo-
my, we need effective coordination between
countries, international and regional organi-
zations, nongovernmental organizations,
businesses and institutions.
Recommendation 13: Register green
products.
Agreements among the World Trade Or-
ganization, the United Nations Conference
on Trade and Development, the Internation-
al Chamber of Commerce, the European Un-
ion, the North American Free Trade Agree-
ment countries, the Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation forum and the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations on the develop-
ment of green trade and removing trade bar-
riers should be reached.
Recommendation 14: Invest in infra-
structure for sustainable development.
We support increased government in-
vestment in sustainable development of in-
frastructure (including public transport, re-
newable energy and energy-efficient
buildings) and natural capital to maintain
and increase its capabilities.
Institutional investors such as pension
funds and sovereign wealth funds to date
have accumulated more than $1 trillion in
total. Channeling even avery small portion of
this amount could have a tremendous posi-
tive impact on sustainable development.
To encourage investment and to in-
crease the capacities of alternative energy,
countries must enhance cooperation on the
development of appropriate financial instru-
ments. In this regard, G-20 countries sup-
port of the idea for a green climate fund for
developing countries is advisable.
Recommendation 15: Establish a
G-Global energy club as an institute to
prepare outreach events on the issues of
clean energy in preparation for Expo
2017.
Interaction within the framework of this
club would allow participating states to work
together to address such pressing issues as: