Current Research Journal of Economic Theory 1(1): 10-14, 2009 ISSN: 2042-485X M axwell Scientific Organization, 2009 Submitted

d Date: July 24, 2009 Accepted Date: August, 01, 2009

Published Date: November 10, 2009

Effects of Some Selected Socio-demographic Variables on Male Migrants in Bangladesh

Abdur Rokib and 2 Rafiqul Islam Departm ent of Population S cience and Human R esou rce D evelopm ent, University of Rajshahi, Bangladesh 2 Departm ent of Population S cience and Human R esou rce D evelopm ent, University of Rajshahi, Bangladesh
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Abstract: The purpose of this study is to identify the intensity of the effects of various socio-economic and dem ographic factors on migration. The data was collected by multi-stage sampling technique at Meherpur sadar thana at Meherpur district, Bangladesh. This paper shows exact causal links between various selected socioecon omic and demographic variables. Multivariate technique like as path analysis has been used to find out the direct, indirect, total and implied effects of the selected socio-economic and demographic factors on migration. This study find out that religion, educational qualification and occupation of the house hold head have positive direct effects on migration. Key w ords: Male migrants, socio-economic and demographic variables, path model and direct and indirect effects INTRODUCTION The population of Bangladesh is mostly poor and maximum of them lives in rural areas. It is one of the most densely populated countries of this modern world. Migration has become an important livelihood strategy for many poor groups across the world. While it is no panacea for the poor it brings m any bene fits and th is is being recognized in some policy and research circles. Population mob ility is a necessary cond ition for sustain able development and poverty alleviation. Anh (2003) concludes that migration is a driver of growth and an impo rtant route out of poverty with significant positive impact on peoples livelihoods and wellbeing. Afsar (2003) also argues that migration has reduced p overty directly and indirectly in Bangladesh as remittances have expanded the area und er cultivation and rural labour markets by making land available for tenancy. The potential of migration is also attracting atten tion in Bangladesh. Anderson (2002) argues that rural-urban migration can bring many benefits where the low population density, poverty and mountainous terrain make it expensive and difficult to provide services in rural areas. Migration is a process that occurs between two places of people with many objectives. Bangladesh is poverty stricken and agrarian based country. Due to increasing poverty and landless as well as underemployment and unemplo yme nt, Bangladesh rapidly goes through deteriorating cond itions. In such a situation, a large number of people seek overseas employment especially, internal migration has occu rred to unlock the opportunity of employment status. According to the population census 2001 (BBS, 2003) the total enumerated population of the country stood 123,851,120 of which 63,874,740 were males and 59,956,380 were females. Of the total population, 28,605,200 live in urban areas and 95,245,920 live in rural areas. Rural-urban migration differentials have significant role in identifying the nature and strength of the socio-economic and demographic impacts of the population concerned. Nevertheless both these categories are preponderantly driven by economic reasons. Information and communication also influence the decision of migration (CUS, 1990). Generally, the differen tials migration has been studied mainly by age, sex, marital status, education and occupation. Several studies reported that determinants of migration vary from country to country, continent to continent, developed countries to developing cou ntries an d eve n within a country; it varies depending on the socio-economic, dem ographic and cultural factors. High unemployment rate, low income, high population growth, unequal distribution of land, demand for higher schooling, previous migration patterns and displeasure with housing have been identified as a numbe r of of the prominent determ inants of rural out migration (Billsborrow et al., 1987; Nabi, 199 2; Sek har, 19 93; Y adav a, 1988; Singh and Yadava, 1981) finds that out migra tion of young ma le leads to decline in fertility at the plac e of origin. The accelerating rate of rural-urban migration (urbanization) is high among the least developed countries of Asia. Hugo (1981) estimated the loss of young adults through migration from village leads to undermining of agricultural production by way of agricultural laborer. People migrated to cities and towns because they are attracted by liveliho od opportunities. Studies on migration

Corresponding Author: Rafiqul Islam, Department of Population Science and Human Resource Development, University of Rajshahi, Bangladesh 10

Curr. Res. J. Econ. Theory, 1(1): 10-14, 2009 have been established with positive association between levels of infrastructure development of a region and the magnitude of out-migration (CUS, 1990). Urbanization has been one of the theatrical global social transformation of the 20t h century. The propensity of migration is u sually influenced by a combination of push-pull factors. In Bangladesh, adeq uate attention to migration aspects has not given which may be due to lack of national level data. The existing micro-level studies mostly investigate the characteristics of migrants at destination places m ainly Dhaka city (CUS, 1988, 1990 and 1996) giving a little attention to the causes of out- migration from villages (Afsar, 1995; Chowdhury, 1978). Chowdhury (1980) found that out-migration is generally higher from the villages characterized by land scarcity, unequal distribution of land and high proportion of agricultural laborer. Afsar (1995) argued that migrants often benefited more than non-m igrants because of their innovative, risk taking and desperate nature. The benefits included higher or regular income, gain in wealth, greater access to pu blic services and edu cation. The study of migration is k ey importan ce in population studies. Migration is the primary stage of developm ent. Migration is not only related to development but also related to urbanization and industrialization. Thus, it is important to study the socioecon omic characteristics of migrants to get an idea about the background characteristics of migrants. This study prov ide a better understanding as to why some families participate in migration process wh ile others not. Therefore, it is important to understand intention of migration, extent of migration and its effect on the grow th of urban population for proper urban planning in addition to for furthering ru ral developm ent. The aim of this paper is to study the direct, indirect and joint contributions of the selected socio-economic and dem ographic factors on migration using path model analy sis. Area of study: This scientific research is performed by primary data. The data was collected from Meherpur district under seven wards at Meherpur sadar thana by Multistage sampling technique during 5th to 27th January in 2008. Th e socioecon omic and demographic characteristics of migrants are considered at the time of data collection. METHODS Path analysis is a standardized multiple regression analy sis (using a standardized form of dependent and predictor variables with mean zero and unit variance) in which a chain of relationships am ong the variables, arranged in an orderly manner, is examined through a series of regression equations. The path analysis employed in this paper was developed by Alwin and Hauser (1975). The Alwin and Hauser method requires the following steps. For each 11
Table 1: Th e variables which h ave been u sed in path analysis Cau ses of m igration o f hou seho ld head (X 9 ) De pen den t varia ble Ag e of ho useh old he ad (X 1 ) Incom e of ho useh old he ad (X 2 ) Fam ily mem ber (X 3 ) Exogenous Typ e of ho use (X 4 ) Lan d pro perty (X 5 ) Religio n (X 6 ) Edu cational q ualification (X 7 ) Endogenous Occ upation of ho useh old he ad (x 8 )

endogenous variable in the model, obtain the successive reduced from equation. First regress the endogenous variables only on the exogenous variables. Next regress the endogenous variables on the exogenous variables and the intervening endogenous variables that com e in sequence from cause to effect. While the first reduced form of equation of a particular endogenous variable gives the total effects, the last equation gives the direct effects. Successive deduction of path coe fficients fro m first to second equation, from second to third equation etc. gives the indirect effects. The characteristics which have been used in this analysis are exp osed in Tab le 1. Model specification: In path diagram, the causal links among the variables are assumed to be a conceptual framew ork conceived in advance. It is to be noted that data set has no role to play in deciding either the causal links between the variables or the variables to be included in the path analysis. According to the causal ordering of variables, we may denote the set of selected variables into three groups (exogenous, endogenous and dependent) that are given in the following: Exo genous v ariable: X 1 ,X 2 ,X 3 ,X 4 ,X 5 End ogenous variab le: X 6 ,X 7 ,X 8 Dependent variable: X 9 The given model is a recursive path model in which each variable is measured to be dependent upon all prior causal variables. Under ad ditional assum ption o f linearity and additively the system of equations for the model can be written as Y 6 = P61Y 1 + P62Y 2 + P63Y 3 + P64Y 4 + P65Y 5 + P6uQ u Y 7 = P71Y 1 + P72Y 2 + P73Y 3 + P74Y 4 + P75Y 5 + P76Y 6 + P7vQ v Y 8 = P81Y 1 + P82Y 2 + P83Y 3 + P84Y 4 + P85Y 5 + P86Y 6 + P87Y 7 + P8w Q w Y 9 = P91Y 1+ P92Y 2 + P93Y 3 + P94Y 4 + P95Y 5 + P96Y 6 + P97Y 7 + P98Y 8 + P9xQ x W here, P ji s are path coefficients from Y i to Y j and Q u , Q v , Q w and Q z are random disturbance terms. These equations are known as stru ctural equations. These selected variables give the estimates of path coefficients and helps in understanding the important links between various variables con sidered in the causal model. N ow, all the variables are transformed into normal forms by subtracting the respective means and dividing by the

Curr. Res. J. Econ. Theory, 1(1): 10-14, 2009

Fig 1: Interrelationships between various socio-economic and demographic variables of the migrants. respective standard deviation. The regression coefficients thus obtained are the path coefficients. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The results of zero order correlation coefficients of various socio-economic and demographic variables are demonstrated in Table 2. Path coefficients are shown in Fig. 1 and the different types of effects are pre sented in Table 3. Also Table 4 is showed their percentage values. In path analysis, we obtain path coefficients direc t, indirect, implied effects of the selected explan atory variables. From Table 2, it is observed that four variables are statistically significant ou t of nine variables. This table is also showed that interrelationships among the selected characteristics. In this model, out of 8 variables 5 variables are exogenous variables or have indirect effects on migration and 3 variables are endogenous variables or have direct effects on causes of migration. It is also observed that variables [ income (X 2 ), type of house (X 4 ), land property (X 5 ), and educational qualification (X 7 )] are found to have significant effect on migration and variables [age of respo ndent( X 1 ), family member (X 3 ), religion (X 6 ), and occupation(X 8 )] are found to have insignificant effect on migration. Total effects of exogenous variab les like as family member (X 3 ), type of house (X 4 ), and land prop erty (X 5 ) are observed negative direction. The total effects of the remaining variables are shown positive direction on migration. Total effects of endogenous variables like as religion (X 6 ), and edu cational qualification (X 7 ) are observed negative direction. The remaining of the total effects is shown positive direction on migration. Total effect of age of respondent (X 1 ) on migration is 0.036, of which about 45.20% is transm itted throu gh its implied effect and about 6.80% is transmitted through religion in the same direction then abo ut 12.0 % is transmitted through educational qualification in the same direction and about 36.0% is transmitted through occupation in the same direction. Total effect of income (X 2 ) on migration is 0.083, of which ab out 24 .42% is transmitted through its implied effect and abou t 6.87% is transmitted through religion in the same direction then about 57.25% is transmitted through educational qualification in the same d irection and about 11.45 % is transmitted through occupation in the same direction. Implied effects o f exog enous variables like as fam ily member (X 3 ), type of house (X 4 ), and land prope rty (X 5 ), are observed negative direction. The remaining of the implied effects is shown positive direction on migration. Direct effects of endogenous variables like as religion (X 6 ), educationa l qualification (X 7 ), and occupation (X 8 ), are observed positive direction. Total effect of family member (X 3 ) on m igration is ! 0.160, of which about 23.65% is transmitted through its implied effect and about

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Curr. Res. J. Econ. Theory, 1(1): 10-14, 2009

Table 2: Zero order correlation coefficients among selected socio-economic and demographic variables Va riable X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X1 1.000 .114 * * 0.445 * * -0.127 * * 0.213 * * -0.026 0.052 X2 1.00 0.151 * * -0.387 * * 0.197 * * 0.017 0.307 * * X3 1.00 -0.174 * * 0.411 * * -0.035 -0.020 X4 1.00 -0.249* * -0.094 * -0.658 * * X5 1.00 -0.069 0.112 * * X6 1.00 -0.019 X7 1.00 X8 X9 **Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed), * Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)
Table 3: Analysis of direct and indirect effects on migration through endogenou s and exogenous variable Dependent Exo.V ar. Total association Total effect No n-cau saleffect* Indirec t effect via variab le ----------------------------------------X6 X7 X8 X1 0.061 0.036 -0.025 -0.017 0.030 -0.090 X2 0.099 0.083 -0.016 -0.009 0.075 -0.015 X 30.055 -0.160 -0.105 -0.011 -0.157 0.087 X9 X4 -0.205 -0.743 -0.538 -0.124 -0.665 0.200 X 50.090 -0.479 -0.389 -0.090 -0.016 -0.317 X6 0.042 -0.013 -0.055 --0.089 0.066 X7 0.249 -0.033 -0.282 ---0.287 X8 0.066 0.250 0.184 ----

X8 -0.163 * * -0.239 * * -0.117 * * 0.463 * * -0.390 * * 0.074 -0.466 * * 1.00

X9 0.061 0.099 * * -0.055 -0.205 * * -0.090 * 0.042 0.249 * * 0.066 1.00

Other variables (Imp lied effec t) 0.113 0.032 -0.079 -0.154 -0.056 ----

Direct effect

-----0.010 0.254 0.250

Table 4: Percentage of the total absolute effect on migration through endogenou s and exogenous variables De pend ent va riable Selec tedva riable Perce ntage ofind irect effec t via Oth er varia bles (Im plied eff ect) ------------------------------------------------X6 X7 X8 X1 6.80 12.00 36.00 45.20 X2 6.87 57.25 11.45 24.42 X3 3.29 47.00 26.04 23.65 X9 X4 10.84 58.18 17.49 13.47 X5 18.78 3.34 66.17 11.69 X6 -53.93 40.00 -X7 --53.04 -X8 -----

Direct effect

-----6.06 46.95 100 .0

3.29% is transm itted throu gh religion in the op posite direction then abou t 47.0% is transmitted through educational qualification in the opposite direction and about 26.04% is transmitted through occupation in the opposite direction. Total effect of type of house (X 4 ) on migration is ! 0.743, of which about 13.47% is transmitted through its implied effect and about 10.84% is transmitted through religion in the opposite direction then about 58.18% is transmitted through educational qualification in the opposite direction and about 17.49% is transmitted through occu pation in the opposite direction. Total effect of land prope rty (X 5 ) on migration is ! 0.479, of which about 11.69% is transmitted through its implied effect and about 18.78% is transmitted through religion in the opposite direction then about 3.34% is transmitted through educational qualification in the opposite direction and about 66.17% is transmitted through occupation in the opposite direction. CONCLUSION It is evide nt from the foregoing discussions that pa th analy sis is essentially a method for reducing th e intercorrelation matrix for a specified set of variables, on the basis of a framew ork of postulated causal relationships, to measu re strength of the several causal chains. From the study it is observed that religion, educational qualification and occupation of household head have positive direct

effects on migration. Most of the person wants to m igrate due to better educational facility and due to better job opportunity. For this rationale, education and occupation have directly influen ce on migration pro cess. REFERENCES Alwin, D.F. and Hauser 1975. The Decomposition of Effect in Path Analysis, American Sociological Review, 40:37-47. Afsar, R. 1995. Causes, Consequences and Challenges of Rural-Urban Migration in Banglad esh, D octoral Dissertation, University o f Adelaide, Australia. Afsar R., 2003. Dynamics of Poverty, Development and Population Mobility: The Bangladesh Case, Ad Hoc Expe rt Group Meeting on Migration and Development, Organized by the Economic and Social Commission For Asia And The Pacific, Bangkok, 27-29 August. Anderson, L., 2002. Rural-Urban Linkages in Bolivia: advantages and disadvantages, Institute de Investigaciones Social Economics, Universidal Catolica Boliviana. Anh, D.N . 2003 . Migration and P overty in A sia: with reference to Bangladesh, China, the Philippines and Viet Nam, Ad Hoc Expert Group Meeting on Migration and Development, Organized by the Econom ic and Social Commission For Asia and The Pacific, Bangkok 27-29 August.

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Curr. Res. J. Econ. Theory, 1(1): 10-14, 2009 BBS, 2003. Bangladesh Population Census 2001, National Volum e, Ministry of Planning, Government of Bangladesh, Dhaka. Billsborrow, et al. 1987 . The Impa ct of O rigin Comm unity Characteristics on Rural-Urban OutMigration in a Developing County, Demography, 24:191-210. Chowdhury, R.H. 1978. Urbanization in Bangladesh, Oriental G eographer, Vo l. 22 (1 & 2), 1-20 . Chowdhury, R.H., 1980. Urbanization in Bangladesh, Center for U rban Studies, University of D haka. CUS, 1988. Slums and Squatters in D haka C ity, Centre for Urban Studies, Dhaka, Banglad esh. CUS, 1990 . Slums and Squatters in Dhaka City, Center for Urban Studies, Dhaka, Bangladesh. CUS, 1996. The Urban Poor in Bangladesh, Centre for Urban Studies, Dhaka, B angladesh Hugo, G.J., 1981. Population M ovemen t in Indonesia During the Colonial Period, The Australian University Press, Canberra, 95-136. Nabi, A.K .M.Nuran., 1992. D ynamics of Internal Migration in Bangladesh, Canadian Studies in Population 19(1); 81-98. Sekha r, T.V., 199 3. Migration Selectivity from Rural Areas: Evidence from Kerala, Demography India, Vol. 22(2), 191-202. Singh, S.N. and K.N.S. Yadava, 1981. On Some Characteristics of Rural Out-migration in Easter Uttar Pradesh, Society and Culture, Vol. 12(1), 33-46. Yadava, K.N.S., 1988. Determinants, Pattern and Consequences of Rural-Urban Migration in India, Independent Publishing Campany, Delhi, India.

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