Global Linkage of Forex Markets
Global Linkage of Forex Markets
Global Linkage of Forex Markets
S College of Commerce
M.com part 1
Semester: 2
Name:
Roll no: 10
Subject: Economics
Topic:
economists are yet to come up with a theory of exchange rate determination that appears empirically valid. Unlike the stock market and the futures market, which are organised exchanges, the foreign exchange market is an over-the-counter (OTC) market, as participants rarely meet and actual currencies are rarely seen. There is no building called the Sydney Foreign Exchange Market, but there are buildings called the Sydney Stock Exchange and the Sydney Futures Exchange. It is an OTC market in the sense that it is not limited to a particular locality or a physical location where buyers and sellers meet. Rather, it is an international market that is open around the clock, where buyers and sellers contact each other via means of telecommunication. The buyers and sellers of currencies operate from approximately 12 major centres (the most important being London, New York and Tokyo) and many minor ones. Because major foreign exchange centres fall in different time zones, any point in time around the clock must fall within the business hours of at least one centre. The 24 hours of a day are almost covered by these centres, starting with the Far Eastern centres (Sydney, Tokyo and Hong Kong), passing through the Middle East (Bahrain), across Europe (Frankfurt and London), and then passing through the US centres, ending up with San Francisco. This is why the first task of a foreign exchange dealer on arrival at work in the morning is to find out what happened while he or she was asleep overnight. Some banks and financial institutions may for this reason operates a24-hour dealing room or install the necessary hardware (Reuters screen, etc.) in their dealers homes. Others may delegate the task to foreign affiliates or subsidiaries in active.
location was chosen because, at the time, the U.S. was the only country unscathed by war. Most of the major European countries were in shambles. Up until WWII, Great Britains currency, the Great British Pound, was the major currency by which most currencies were compared. This changed when the Nazi campaign against Britain included a major counterfeiting effort against its currency. In fact, WWII vaulted the U.S. dollar from a failed currency after the stock market crash of 1929 to benchmark currency by which most other international currencies were compared. The Bretton Woods Accord was established to create a stable environment by which global economies could restore themselves. The Bretton Woods Accord established the pegging of currencies and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in hope of stabilizing the global economic situation. The Bretton Woods Accord lasted until 1971. Ultimately, it failed, but did accomplish what its charter set out to do, which was to re-establish economic stability in Europe and Japan. The Beginning of the free-floating system After the Bretton Woods Accord came the Smithsonian Agreement in December of 1971. This agreement was similar to the Bretton Woods Accord, but allowed for a greater fluctuation band for the currencies. In 1972, the European community tried to move away from its dependency on the dollar. The European Joint Float was established by West Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxemburg. The agreement was similar to the Bretton Woods Accord, but allowed a greater range of fluctuation in the currency values. Both agreements made mistakes similar to the Bretton Woods Accord and in 1973 collapsed. The collapse of the Smithsonian agreement and the European Joint Float in 1973 signified the official switch to the free-floating system. In 1978, the free-floating system was officially mandated. In a final effort to gain independence from the dollar, Europe
created the European Monetary System in July of 1978. Like all of the previous agreements, it failed in 1993.
of the total exchangers from the country. Turnover of exchange-traded foreign exchange futures and options have grown rapidly in recent years, reaching $166 billion in April 2010 (double the turnover recorded in April 2007). Exchange-traded currency derivatives represent 4% of OTC foreign exchange turnover. Foreign exchange futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts. Most developed countries permit the trading of derivative products (like futures and options on futures) on their exchanges. All these developed countries already have fully convertible capital accounts. Some governments of emerging economies do not allow foreign exchange derivative products on their exchanges because they have capital controls. The use of derivatives is growing in many emerging economies. Countries such as Korea, South Africa, and India have established currency futures exchanges, despite having some capital controls. Foreign exchange trading increased by 20% between April 2007 and April 2010 and has more than doubled since 2004. The increase in turnover is due to a number of factors: the growing importance of foreign exchange as an asset class, the increased trading activity of high-frequency traders, and the emergence of retail investors as an important market segment. The growth of electronic execution and the diverse selection of execution venues have lowered transaction costs, increased market liquidity, and attracted greater participation from many customer types.
Market participants
There are three types of participants in the foreign exchange market. These are: central banks, global funds, retail clients (or individual retailers) and corporations. The commercial and investment banks belong to the group known as Interbank market. The interbank market is
the largest market that operates in the foreign exchange market. Corporations, central banks and global funds also operate at this level. Being the highest traders in the market, participants in the interbank level are given the best rates. This level constitutes about seventy five percent of the total volume available each day. The foreign exchange market consists of two tiers: the interbank or wholesale market, and the client or retail market. Individual transactions in the interbank market usually involve large sums that are multiples of a million USD or the equivalent value in other currencies. By contrast, contracts between a bank and its client are usually for specific amounts, sometimes down to the last penny.
Speculators seek all of their profit from exchange rate changes. Arbitragers try to profit from simultaneous exchange rate differences in different markets.
(iii) To furnish facilities for hedging foreign exchange risks - hedging function.
Transfer Function:
The basic function of the foreign exchange market is to facilitate the conversion of one currency into another, i.e., to accomplish transfers of purchasing power between two countries. This transfer of purchasing power is effected through a variety of credit instruments, such as telegraphic transfers, bank drafts and foreign bills. In performing the transfer function, the foreign exchange market carries out payments internationally by clearing debts in both directions simultaneously, analogous to domestic clearings.
Credit Function:
Another function of the foreign exchange market is to provide credit, both national and international, to promote foreign trade. Obviously, when foreign bills of exchange are used in international payments, a credit for about 3 months, till their maturity, is required.
Hedging Function:
A third function of the foreign exchange market is to hedge foreign exchange risks. In a free exchange market when exchange rates, i.e., the price of one currency in terms of another currency, change, there may be a gain or loss to the party concerned. Under this condition, a
person or a firm undertakes a great exchange risk if there are huge amounts of net claims or net liabilities which are to be met in foreign money. Exchange risk as such should be avoided or reduced. For this the exchange market provides facilities for hedging anticipated or actual claims or liabilities through forward contracts in exchange. A forward contract which is normally for three months is a contract to buy or sell foreign exchange against another currency at some fixed date in the future at a price agreed upon now. No money passes at the time of the contract. But the contract makes it possible to ignore any likely changes in exchange rate.
Spot Market
The term spot exchange refers to the class of foreign exchange transaction which requires the immediate delivery or exchange of currencies on the spot. In practice the settlement takes place within two days in most markets. The rate of exchange effective for the spot transaction is known as the spot rate and the market for such transactions is known as the spot market.
Forward Market
The forward transactions is an agreement between two parties, requiring the delivery at some specified future date of a specified amount of foreign currency by one of the parties, against payment in domestic currency be the other party, at the price agreed upon in the contract. The rate of exchange applicable to the forward contract is called the forward exchange rate and the market for forward transactions is known as the forward market. The foreign exchange regulations of various countries generally regulate the forward exchange transactions with a view to curbing speculation in the foreign exchanges market. With reference to its relationship with spot rate, the forward rate may be at par, discount or premium. If the forward exchange rate quoted is exact equivalent to the spot rate at the time of making the contract the forward exchange rate is said to be at par. The forward rate for a currency, say the dollar, is said to be at premium with respect to the spot rate when one dollar buys more units of another currency, say rupee, in the forward than in the spot rate on a per annum basis. The forward rate for a currency, say the dollar, is said to be at discount with respect to the spot rate when one dollar buys fewer rupees in the forward than in the spot market. The discount is also usually expressed as a percentage deviation from the spot rate on a per annum basis.
Futures Market
Future Forex currency markets types are specific types constitute the forward outright deals which in general take up small part of the foreign exchange currency trading market. Since future contracts are derivatives of spot price, they are also known as derivative instruments.
They are specific with regard to the expiration date and the size of the trade amount. In general, the forward outright deals which get mature past the spot delivery date will mature on any valid date in the two countries whose currencies are being traded, standardized amounts of foreign currency futures mature only on the third Wednesday of March, June, September, and December. Future kinds of foreign exchange markets have many features, which attracts traders to future markets. The first thing is that anyone can trade in future market. It is open to all kind of traders in foreign exchange market including individual traders. This is the difference between the future foreign exchange market and the spot foreign exchange market, since spot market is closed to individuals traders except in case there are deals of high net worth. The future forex currency market types are central markets, just as efficient as the cash market, and whereas the cash market is a much decentralized market, futures trading take place under one roof. The futures market provides various benefits for currency traders because futures are special types of forward outright contracts which corporate firms can use for hedging purposes.
affected by the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, interest rates and balance of trade. News about the foreign exchange market is given to the public on scheduled periods so that every trader involved gets access to it at the same time. However, the big banks are given higher priority by letting them see the operations of their customers.
AUD/CAD, NZD/USD, GBP/CHF, AUD/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, CHF/JPY, EUR/CAD, AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD and AUD/NZD. These18 pairs represent the majority of the trading volume in the forex world. You have a wide variety to choose from and this makes fx trading less complicated.
FOREX Products Cross trades: Trades that does not involve the USD. The Rate is calculated from the quote
rates of the individual currencies against the USD.
speculation about future events. Exchange rates can be expressed as the foreign price of a domestic currency (i.e., the Euro price of a U.S. dollar) or its reciprocal -- the domestic price of foreign currency. The spot exchange rate refers to the current exchange rate. The forward exchange rate refers to an exchange rate that is quoted and traded today but for delivery and payment on a specific future date. Fixed Exchange Rates A fixed exchange rate, sometimes called a pegged exchange rate, is also referred to as the Tag of particular Rate, which is a type of exchange rate regime where a currency's value is fixed against the value of another single currency or to a basket of other currencies, or to another measure of value, such as gold. A fixed exchange rate is usually used to stabilize the value of a currency against the currency it is pegged to. This makes trade and investments between the two countries easier and more predictable and is especially useful for small economies in which external trade forms a large part of their GDP.A floating exchange rate or fluctuating exchange rate is a type of exchange rate regime wherein a currency's value is allowed to fluctuate according to the foreign exchange market. A currency that uses a floating exchange rate is known as a floating currency.
Exchange-rate regime:
An exchange-rate regime is the way an authority manages its currency in relation to other currencies and the foreign exchange market. It is closely related to monetary policy and the two are generally dependent on many of the same factors. The basic types are a floating exchange rate, where the market dictates movements in the exchange rate; a pegged float, where a central bank keeps the rate from deviating too far from a target band or value; and a fixed exchange rate, which ties the currency to another currency, mostly more widespread currencies such as the U.S. dollar or the euro or a basket of currencies.
affect developments within the Foreign exchange marketplace if you are made the decision in joining this arena. After all, acquainting yourself using the many scenarios that can cause currencies to go up or down can help you a great deal in generating decisions for when to buy or sell. There are basically 3 main factors that affect the Foreign Exchange, a cou ntrys economic system, political conditions and marketplace psychology.
Economic system
Financial factors are the most basic things that create changes inside a countrys forex. When such financial circumstances as a budget deficit or surplus is present inside a country, there will surely be reactions in the marketplace and values will be reflected on currencies. Other conditions may also include inflation trends, and also the general financial growth of the country. The much more prosperous a countrys economy is, the much more investors will be able to adhere to doing trade in a more constructive perspective. Such indicators as a development inside a nations gross domestic product (GDP), employment levels and retail sales among others will basically attract much more investors and that nations forex value will likely go up.
Political Circumstances
Another extremely essential factor that affect developments in Forex, are the conditions of a countrys political sector. This is simply because political instability or turmoil can generally create negative fluctuations to an economic system. But if this kind of situations happens wherein a country might rise above political obstacles, the opposite may happen and the economic system might improve. Occasions inside a region can surely create damaging or constructive interest among investors for a nations forex. And so, such circumstances surely influence the developments for demands and costs of a certain currency.
Marketplace Psychology
The perception of traders and investors will significantly affect the International Exchange market in so several ways. After all, the marketplace is highly dependent on regardless of whether or not individuals would want to make investments on a countrys economic system in order to determine whether forex prices will go up or down. For instance, such conditions wherein unsettling worldwide occasions might occur, then under the flight of quality rule, people would generally want to search for a secure haven for their investments. Whenever there is a higher demand to get a particular countrys economy, then a higher price will probably be given to buyers and the currencys worth will go up and turn out to be stronger. Other occasions that contribute to traders perceptions may be long-term developments where people invest based on what theyve observed for a lengthy period and time, and even economic numbers in which people may base their investments depending on what numbers show a higher value.
the world. Also, the broker exchange systems in forex helps in the quick, accurate and efficient execution of orders of various forex traders. The majority of transactions which are completed through the brokers using different systems in forex are via phone. The phone lines between brokers and banks are dedicated, or direct, and are usually in-stalled free of charge by the broker. A foreign exchange brokerage firm has direct lines to banks around the world. Most foreign exchange is executed through an open box system a microphone in front of the broker that continuously transmits everything he or she says on the direct phone lines to the speaker boxes in the banks. This way, all banks can hear all the deals being executed. Brokers communicate through Reuter, Phone or Bloomberg. Different Foreign exchange systems used by brokers in doing the analysis of market trends. The Electronic Trading system was introduced in 1992. Reuters, the news company introduced the screen quotations which created screen-based market. Under this system, prices are visible to all market participants. Traders enter buy and sell orders directly into their terminals on an anonymous basis.
Direct Dealing:
Another most common exchange system in forex is direct dealing. These exchange systems in forex are based on the principle of trading reciprocity. The market maker and the bank making or quoting a price expects the bank that is calling to reciprocate with respect to making a price when called upon. Direct dealing used to be conducted mostly on the phone. Dealing errors were difficult to prove and even more difficult to settle. In order to increase dealing safety, most banks tapped the phone lines on which trading were conducted. This measure was helpful in recording all the transaction details and enabling the dealers to allocate the responsibility for errors fairly. But tape recorders were unable to prevent trading
errors. With the introduction of dealing systems in 1980s, the direct dealing exchange systems in forex were changed forever.
Dealing Systems:
These types of exchange systems in foreign exchange are actually online computer systems which are linked to the contributing banks around the world on a one on one basis. These exchange systems in forex are highly reliable and most preferred. The performance of dealing systems greatly depends upon the speed, reliability, and safety. Accessing a bank through a dealing system is much faster than making a phone call. There are continuous improvements in dealing foreign exchange in order to offer maximum support to the dealer's main function.
Matching Systems:
This exchange system in forex is different from the other foreign exchange systems such as the dealing systems. In the dealing system the currency trading is done directly and on a oneon-one basis, however in matching systems the currency trading is done anonymously and individual traders deal against the rest of the market. This is similar with other different systems in forex such as the trading the market with the help of a broker. However, unlike the brokers' market, there are no individuals to bring the prices to the market, and liquidity may be limited at times. Matching Systems are well-suited for trading smaller amounts as well. The dealing systems characteristics of speed, reliability, and safety are replicated in the matching systems. In addition, credit lines are automatically managed by the systems. Traders input the total credit line for each counter party. When the credit line has been reached, the system automatically disallows dealing with the particular party by displaying credit restrictions, or shows the trader only the price made by banks that have open lines of credit. As soon as the credit line is restored, the system allows the bank to deal again. In the
interbank market, traders deal directly with dealing systems, matching systems, and brokers in a complementary fashion.
The foreign exchange market is the largest financial market in the world, trading around $1.5 trillion each day. Trading in the forex is not done at one central location but is conducted between participants through electronic communication networks (ECNs) and phone networks in various markets around the world.
The market is open 24 hours a day from 5pm EST on Sunday until 4pm EST Friday. The reason that the markets are open 24 hours a day is that currencies are in high demand. The international scope of currency trading means that there are always traders somewhere who are making and meeting demands for a particular currency. Currency is also needed around the world for international trade, as well as central banks and global businesses. Central banks have relied on foreign-exchange markets since 1971 - when fixed-currency markets ceased to exist because the gold standard was dropped. Since that time, most international currencies have been "floated", rather than pegged to the value of gold.
At each second of every day, countries' economies are growing and shrinking because of economic and political instability and infinite other perpetual changes. Central banks seek to stabilize their country's currency by trading it on the open market and keeping a relative value
compared to other world currencies. Businesses that operate in many countries seek to mitigate the risks of doing business in foreign markets and hedge currency risk.
To do this, they enter into currency swaps giving them the right, but not necessarily the obligation to buy a set amount of a foreign currency for a set price in another currency at a date in the future. By doing this, they are limiting their exposure to large fluctuations in currency valuations. Due to the importance of currencies on the international stage there needs to be round-the-clock trading at all times. Domestic stock, bond and commodity exchanges are not as relevant, or in need, on the international stage and are not required to trade beyond the standard business day in the issuer's home country. Due to the focus on the domestic market, demand for trade in these markets is not high enough to justify opening 24 hours a day, as few shares would be traded at 3am, for example. The ability of the forex to trade over a 24-hour period is due in part to different time zones and the fact it is comprised of a network of computers, rather than any one physical exchange that closes at a particular time. When you hear that the U.S. dollar closed at a certain rate, it simply means that that was the rate at market close in New York. But it continues to be traded around the world long after New York's close, unlike securities.
The forex market can be split into three main regions: Australasia, Europe and North America. Within each of these main areas there are several major financial centres. For example, Europe is comprised of major centres like London, Paris, Frankfurt and Zurich. Banks, institutions and dealers all conduct forex trading for themselves and their clients in each of these markets.
Each day of forex trading starts with the opening of the Australasia area, followed by Europe and then North America. As one region's markets close another opens, or has already opened, and continues to trade in the forex market. Often these markets will overlap for a couple hours providing some of the most active forex trading. So if a forex trader in Australia wakes up at 3am and decides to trade currency, they will be unable to do so through forex dealers located in Australasia but they can make as many trades as they want through European or North American dealers. With all of this action happening across borders with little attention to time and space, the sum is that there is no point during the trading week that a participant in the forex market can't potentially make a currency trade.
The foreign exchange market is open and active 24 hours a day from Monday morning in New Zealand through Friday night in New York. At any given moment, currency trading desks in dozens of global financial centres are open and active in the market.
Currency trading doesn't even stop for holidays when other financial markets, like stocks or future exchanges, may be closed. Even though it's a holiday in Japan, for example, Sydney, Singapore, and Hong Kong may still be open. About the only holiday in common around the world is New Year's Day, and even that depends on what day of the week it falls on.
There is no officially designated starting time to the trading day or week, but for all intents the market action kicks off when Wellington, New Zealand, the first financial centre west of the International Dateline, opens on Monday morning local time. Depending on whether daylight saving time is in effect, it roughly corresponds to early Sunday afternoon in the Americas, Sunday evening in Europe, and very early Monday morning in Asia.
The Sunday open represents the starting point when currency markets resume trading after the Friday close of trading in North America (5 p.m. Eastern time). This is the first chance for the
forex market to react to news and events that may have happened over the weekend. Prices may have closed New York trading at one level, but depending on the circumstances, they may start trading at different levels at the Sunday open. The risk that currency prices open at different levels on Sunday versus their close on Friday is referred to as the weekend gap risk or the Sunday open gap risk. A gap is a change in price levels where no prices are tradable in between.
As a strategic trading consideration, individual traders need to be aware of the weekend gap risk and know what events are scheduled over the weekend. There's no fixed set of potential events, and there's never any way of ruling out what may transpire, such as a terror attack, a geopolitical conflict, or a natural disaster. You just need to be aware that the risk exists and factor it into your trading strategy.
On most Sunday opens, prices generally pick up where they left off on Friday afternoon. The opening price spreads will be much wider than normal because only Wellington and 24-hour trading desks are active at the time. When banks in Sydney, Australia, and other early Asian centers enter the market over the next few hours, liquidity begins to improve and price spreads begin to narrow to more normal levels.
Because of the wider price spreads in the initial hours of the Sunday open, most online trading platforms don't begin trading until 5 p.m. ET on Sundays, when sufficient liquidity enables the platforms to offer their normal price quotes. Make sure you know your broker's trading policies with regard to the Sunday open, especially in terms of order executions.
NETWORK OF DEALERS
The Forex market consists of a network of dealers and traders grouped around the world. These players are linked by a system of computers, phones, and the internet.
Central Banks
The majority of developed market economies have a central bank, whose role differs from country to country. Central banks play an important role in the Forex market. They try to maintain the money supply, interest rates, inflation, and other market factors. A nation's central bank also has the fundamental responsibility of maintaining the market for its national currency. This entails monitoring and checking the prices dealt in the Forex market. Participants in the market all tend to respect the opinions of the central banks because of the power and control they have over the value of their national currency.
Banks
Both small and large banks, working for themselves and their clients (institutions, individual investors), participate in the Forex markets. According to the Bank for International Settlements, approximately 50% of all Forex transactions are strictly interbank (See Key terms section) trades. Some of the more active large banks may trade up to one billion dollars
daily. And while some of this trading is done for customers, most of it is for the bank's own account.
In the past banks relied on Forex brokers to handle their accounts in the role of middlemen, but with the emergence of technology in the Forex arena, they have been replaced by computers and other devices. Today, transactions are made by telephone with brokers or by an electronic medium, with the transaction time being between 5 and 10 seconds.
Market Makers
Forex market makers are the banks and brokerage companies that facilitate the 24 hour trading capabilities of the Forex market. Market makers literally "make the market" for the currencies. They ensure that the market is always functional and that the currencies in it will always obtain the market rate. To achieve this level and efficiency of trading, Forex market makers update their prices at least two times per minute allowing the trader to get the most complete up to date price and information as possible.
Corporations
Small and large companies also play an important role in the Forex market. These companies often use foreign exchange to pay for goods or services. Compared to banks and hedge funds, corporations trade less amounts of currency. Although they also do not hold the influence of banks and hedge funds, they keep the market strong through international trade and foreign currency exchange between multinational companies.
Fund Managers
Forex fund manager are similar to money managers in the investment field. However, fund managers do business in both the domestic and international arena for individual investors, corporate pension funds, governments, and even central banks. Fund managers usually have a large pool of investments to oversee for a wide variety of clients. Dealing with hundreds of millions of dollars, they invest money across a range of countries to maximize returns.
Hedge Funds
Hedge funds have a reputation for aggressive currency speculation. Their influence in the market over the past decade has increased immensely (FXBlog). Hedge funds oversee billions of dollars of equity, and, due their tremendous borrowing power, may have rivaled the power and influence of central banks, if investments and market rends are in their favor. As opposed to banks and fund managers, hedge funds are primarily more concerned with managing the total risk of their investment pools.
The Forex broker is very similar to a stockbroker. One difference, though, is that Forex brokers only deal with banks. They, in a very efficient manner, act as the primary agent for bank transactions of the Forex market. Due to technological innovations in the market, many traditional brokering duties have been computerized, decreasing the need for human handling of the orders.
This technological takeover of the brokerage aspect of the Forex market, has led to the emergence of 'straight through processing.' Straight through processing is the automatic processing of an order as soon as it becomes. This has opened up Forex trading to a new, wide range of individuals and companies. Some of the most popular trading platforms include Forex.com, FXconnect, and FX Solutions. These sights, and others like them, allow Forex market participants, mostly the larger banks and corporations, to access the market directly, instead of going through a broker or a middleman, ultimately cutting costs significantly.
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