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6:>612
25
EDI'"%G& !"'E
03 Initial Thoughts
LEADE%'& I!&IGH'&
04 In person with
Prof Datin. Dr. Clara L.Chee
E+#E%'&' I!&IGH'&
06 Linking Foresight to Action: A Health Case Study
C")E% &'"%,
14 Preserving HEALTH @ Home: a LIFESTYLE That Pays
)IE*#"I!'&
18 Consumerism Trend in Malaysia
25 Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs)
Is it a future without hope?
31 Family & Home: The Next Decade
34 F"%E&IGH' I!'E%C"!!EC'F
myForesight

Book Club
I!F"G%A#HIC&
35 Envisioning The Future of Health Technology
36 Youth-Consumerism
38 Baby & Gadget
40 A Lifetime of Medical Check-ups
02/2013
myForesight
3
myForesight
3
I:6?6.8
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B,
%(&HDI ABD(L %AHI
[email protected]
T
he recent passing away of YBhg. Datuk Dr.
Mahani Zainal Abidin, Chief Executive of ISIS
is indeed a big loss to Malaysia and foresight. She
has been one of the proponents and supporter
of technology foresight and her insights would
be missed. Our condolences also goes to the
family of Ms. Natrah Mohd Emran, myForesight
senior analyst on the passing of her father on the
very same day. Both lost their lives to cancer, a
leading cause of death accounting for more
than 7 million deaths annually worldwide. Grim
statistics indeed.
The passing of the people you know has the
eect of making us be reective and take a look
at how we conduct ourselves; certainly our
sedentary lifestyle needs to change, a boost and
TLC perhaps I mean not just Tender, Loving and
Care but also Therapeutic Lifestyle Changes to
our mental, medical and public health. As we
strive towards becoming a high income society,
work has taken precedence over our well-being;
neglecting the needs of our physical being. Our
lifestyle is perhaps ill suited to what our body
needs. A statistic released by World Health
Organization projected that by 2030 the
proportion of total global deaths due to lifestyle
diseases is expected to increase to about 70
percent. You can read more on these lifestyle
diseases in Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs):
a Future without hope?
We are all aware that lifestyles are determined by
a variable causes; upbringing and values as well
as inuences in the cultural, physical, economic,
and political environments. It is without a doubt,
technology has encroached into almost every
aspect of our life. Technology has become so
pervasive that unconsciously we have become
too dependent on it to an extent that some view
technology as a destructive force of our lives and values.
Therefore, in this issue well discuss about
technology inuences in our lifestyle. As a case
study, we cite linking foresight to action for
Canada whereby the paper focuses on how to
deliver foresight insights to key decision makers
initiatives jointly undertaken by the Science and
Technology Foresight Policy Division of Health
Canada and Alberta Innovates Technology
Futures. The piece on Family & Home: The Next
Decade dwells on the issues of technology
inuencing the future homes. Whereas the article
on Home healthcare uncovers on how home is
being transformed to be center for future
healthcare and wellness.
myForesight also had the opportunity to
capture the views of Prof. Datin Dr. Clara L. Chee;
founder and chairman of Clara International. Here
she shares her thoughts and views on the need
to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Her holistic view
on beauty and the importance of balancing our
lives by going back to nature and taking
advantage of technology to improve life is
something we could take on board.
We cant address lifestyle without talking about how
we consume things. Therefore in this issue we provide
a piece on consumerism consumer lifestyles
(called psychographics) and how it becomes an
important factor in determining how consumers
make their purchase decision. The article
Consumerism trend in Malaysia provides insights
on how consumerism interacts and intertwined
with many other trends hence, inuences our
current and future behavior and culture.
Speaking of consumption, we are approaching
the holy month of Ramadhan soon. It is a time for
inner reection, devotion to God, and self-control.
Perhaps the timing is right; not just for the Muslims,
to provide a break from our overindulgence
towards a healthier lifestyle regime.
We hope you nd this issue benecial. Wishing
you great months ahead.

Hi, greetings from myForesight.

I am starting this editorial with a somber mood.

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02/2013
myForesight
4
82.12=G> 6:>645?>
#=;3 D.?6: D=. C8.=. L. C522
In person with
The Cosmeceutical industry
I
ve been in this industry for more than 30 years.
And I can see that the industry is expanding
and growing ever since. Back in the early days,
women were more concern about beauty and
long term care. However, today young girls and boys
have started to take care of their skin once they
reach puberty. Todays active lifestyle rich in protein
and carbohydrate diet, the environment and the
hormonal changes has all contributed to the
changes and problems of the skin. Thus, early skin
care and treatment is very important.
Now, beauty and fashion is no longer associated
or exclusive for women only. There are also rising
awareness among men. Everyone has started to
take extra eort in ensuring a healthy and good
skin. For instance, during a job interview it is
crucial for you to look presentable. Smart looking,
tidy and condent is essential in almost every
profession. In order to have self-condence, you
have to care of how you look, and also your
health. All these factors denitely contribute to
the growth of this industry.
Defnition of Beauty
To me beauty means healthy skin with natural
look that makes people feels comfortable and
pleasant. It should come from within. The radiance
and aura reected the beauty from your heart
through your appearance. Looking beautiful from
the inside (kind hearted) and outside.
Healthy lifestyle is also important, and this starts
from home. It is the duty of the parents to teach
their young ones good manners, being respectful
and thankful. Good human characteristic is also
required so that we can lead a happy and
harmonious life within the society. We need to be
balanced physically, mentally and spiritually.
Secrets to youthful looking skin
Skin protection and taking good care of our skin
is important, especially if we wish to maintain the
youthful look even at the later age. We need to
ensure that we have a good skin care product
range that is suitable to our climate and weather.
Lifestyle and culture can also give certain impact
to our skin. The westerners, with temperate
weather, love to get under the sun and get
tanned. They have less melanocyte; therefore,
they need not have to worry about getting
pigmentation. Malaysia is blessed with hot sun
throughout the year. Therefore, the need for skin
care and protection products that are suitable for
tropical humidity and heat are crucial as
overexposure to the sun damages your skin.
Back to nature products
During my childhood, I was exposed to the
formulae using natural and herbal ingredient in
my daily life. My father used his own formula to
produce his own hair pomade by mixing
petroleum gel with jasmine ower. Even my
mother used jamu, herbs and vegetable as her
beauty care ingredients. Both my parents inspire
me to further my study in formula science. While
others are using orthodox drugs such as
paracetamol, antibiotics and so on, we use herbs
and vegetable from our own garden that are free
from pesticide to cure sickness and prevent
illness. You see, going back to basic comes
naturally to me; it is so much in me.
A niche market
I graduated with a degree in Science (Chemistry) and,
later on, the Honorary Doctorate (PhD) in Medicinal
and Cosmetic Products Technology. I believe that the
exposure I gained while studying abroad has given
me a very good reasoning power. I learnt that the
basic materials of beauty products are mainly
petroleum based or mineral-oil based. There was, and
still is, a huge tank of this substance ready for toiletries
production that would be exported under dierent
brands to many countries like Australia, US, Singapore,
and Hong Kong. So I thought, what has been
formulated there might not be suitable to be
marketed to tropical climate countries. From there on
I started to formulate my own products that are herbal
based. I then shared my idea and experience with
Malaysian Herbal Corporation (MHC) back in 1997,
and also to other local players to encourage
commercialisation of local herbs and cosmeceutics.
Please dont be confused on the dierence between
cosmeceutics and toiletries. Toiletries functions as a
cleanser, to clean skin but not enriching or enhancing it.
Meanwhile cosmeceutics contains active ingredients
such as herbal extracts to help nourish and care for
the skin. It acts to improve your skin to be healthier. A
skin treatment product that is safe, clean and halal.
Healthy lifestyle the natural way
We are also spreading our wings to the next
dimension in ensuring and maintaining healthy
look and lifestyle. We are currently working
closely with Forest Research Institute Malaysia
(FRIM) to identify the active ingredients for herbal
formulation for halal herbal capsule. We also did
R&D together with Institute Medical Research
(IMR) to formulate the alternative to Hormonal
Replacement Therapy (HRT).
There are cases reported on the after eect of the
HRT such as breast and womb cancer. Having this
in mind, we opt to use herbs as the alternative to
prevent and also cure illness.
Now, beauty and fashion
is no longer associated
or exclusive for women
only. There are also
rising awareness among
the men.
02/2013
myForesight
5
82.12=G> 6:>645?>
Trends in skin care products
development
A lot has been happening in the local herbal
industry since the late 90s, both positively and
negatively. The worrying and disturbing trends
would be the introduction of hormonal
ingredients for beauty treatment. Hormonal
ingredients in skin care products might be
harmful and damaging to your internal organs
such as liver and kidney. Long term usage may
cause adverse eects. For example, excessive use
of placenta cream or lanolin cream can cause
extra hair growth on skin. Sadly, the innocent
consumers are always confused by misleading
information and advertisement in the market.
However, there is also positive inclination in this
industry towards a more healthy, natural and
clean products. I strongly emphasize in using
herbal based products in skin care. In my case, I
felt very blessed and thankful by the environment
I am in. We have strong government support and
initiatives like what is being oered by the East
Coast Economic Region (ECER), and good climate
to plant our own raw material. I can claim that herbs
from tropical climate are the most powerful. However,
lack of promotions on their special properties has
resulted in low appreciation on our local herbs.
I am a very keen advocate in halal practices and halal
herbal products. Halal or Chin Chanis clean, true
and safe. It is not only for the Muslim. I have
preached this understanding to my counterpart
in China back in 1993. I believe, with these three
elements, there will be no harm and no side
eects. A simple example is in food preparation, if
it is halal it will not cause food poisoning or diarrhoea.
Therefore, we worked for halal formulation and
all of our products are certied Halal.
Nip-Tuck on the rise
I have a feeling, as an adult, we have to educate
our young generations to value what has been
gifted to us by God. The features that we have
now are from God, and we are the most perfect
creation to represent our ancestor. We should feel
proud and respect it.
Originally, plastic or cosmetic surgery is to help
reconstruct damages due to misfortunes such as
burnt and deformation. It is to give the patients
their original look, not modifying it. But, nowadays
we can see many people are undergoing plastic
surgeries for beauty purposes. We have read
numerous cases of botched cosmetic surgeries
reported over the years, which even led to death
cases. One will always have to weigh all the risk
and benets of cosmetic procedure before
making any commitment. And we should realize
that this kind of human made beauty is not
inherited. The child of a person who did plastic
surgery will inherit their parents original look. I
am afraid that this trend can be a cause of broken
marriage, especially if it is solely based on looks.
And, to me, honesty denitely plays a role.
There is also misleading understanding on Botox
treatment, another hormonal (toxic) treatment which
can lead to skin cancer. This is what happened when
wrong introductions were made in promoting beauty.
Developing Resources in Aesthetics
I have started a college on the second year of
Claras establishment. It is rst known as Clara
Beauty Treatment Centre & Therapy Academy.
The trainers are all my comrades during the study
years. The students have to undergo aesthetic
examination where they are being evaluated and
graded based on international standards by
international examiners. Our certicates are globally
recognised. We are the rst college recognised by
the Malaysian Qualications Agency (MQA) for
aesthetic education.
Currently we have schools in all major states
throughout the country. Since its establishment,
we have trained over 10,000 graduates and there
are high demands for them locally and overseas,
especially from Singapore and China. We also
have students from dierent countries like Japan,
France, Africa, India and the neighbouring countries.
We even have male students in our academy and,
surprisingly, they are more saleable!
High Technology in Herbal
I was motivated with the advancement of high
technology because only through technology Ill
be able to come out with more formulation. And
I can also apply this in the manufacturing line.
Our factory is certied with the halal and good
manufacturing practise (GMP) certication and
we are also a BioNexus company.
Ultimately, high technology is critical in promoting
Herbal industry. It is a promising market and has
high potential. I urge for continuous supports
from the government, especially in terms of
grants, so that we can do more clinical study. We
should also emphasis on herbal cultivation to
ensure continuous supply for the local industry.
We have all the advantages here in Malaysia . I
mean, why not take the opportunities and explore
more? Plant more! Formulate and produce local
quality product. I believe that one day the world
will look for our products. But rst, we have to
believe in our herbs to bring it to the next stage.
It acts to improve your
skin to be healthier.
A skin treatment
product that is safe,
clean and halal.
Prof.Datin Dr. Clara L.CHEE
Founder & Chairman
CLARA International
Prof. Datin. Dr. Clara L. Chee is Malaysias renowned
cosmetologist, entrepreneur and lecturer who started
her own beauty business since 1977. From a very humble
beginning her beauty empire has expanded into
South-East-Asia market known as the Clara
International Beauty Group which encompassed
herbal based skin care and beauty treatment
product, beauty center franchisee and distribution
ship and Aesthetic College.
She received her Degree in Science (Chemistry)
from University of Missouri, USA in 1983. In 1990 she
went to University of De Monfort, United Kingdom
(formerly known as Leicester Polytechnic) to further
knowledge and research in medicinal & Cosmetic
Products Technology. She was later conferred the
Honorary Doctorate (Ph.D) title in Cosmetic Science &
technology in 1996 from Pacic Western University USA.
She also holds position as the Head of research &
development for Best Cosmetics Laboratories Sdn.
Bhd, President of Malaysian Beauty Therapy
Association (MBTA), Chairman of CIDESCO
Malaysian Section, Director of Artiste Academy,
South East Asia and many others.
02/2013
myForesight
6
LI!kI!G F"%E&IGH' '" AC'I"!:
A HEAL'H CA&E &'(D,
L;6> .0786:, B.&0., .A., #5.D.
Principal Business Advisor-Foresight
Alberta Innovates-Technology Futures
[email protected]
B,
L2.5 &;=;7., B.C;99. .&0.
Director, S&T Foresight and Science Promotion
Division Science Policy Directorate of Health Canada
[email protected]
2C<2=?>G 6:>645?>
Summary
In Canada, a federal government department and a provincially owned research corporation have collaboratively implemented a major
foresight initiative designed to anticipate future challenges and opportunities related to improving the health status of Canadians in a
single generation (to 2030). The premise underpinning the project design was that simply conducting foresight activities is often insucient
to eect forward looking decisions or behavioural change. Foresight activities must be designed with the intent to take action. This paper
focuses on the cumulative learnings about how to deliver foresight insights to key decision makers in a way that impacts present day
decisions. The following is a summary of the key learnings from the Health Foresight Initiative that the authors consider useful contributions
to the eld of foresight.
02/2013
myForesight
7
2C<2=?>G 6:>645?>
1) Deep understanding of emergent complex
issues takes multiple conversations spread over
a sufcient period of time to allow refection.
Several iterations of the large and small
engagement sequence are required to achieve a
deeper understanding of the forces and factors
at play and how they interrelate. Arriving at
recommendations that result in the implementation
of complex adaptive management responses
may require several months of ongoing work and
provocative discussion.
2) Workshops that engage larger numbers of
participants typically make only incremental
contributions to current knowledge.
Large group events surface a plethora of ideas
and perspectives but rarely generate more than
incremental advances in thinking.
3) Highly innovative thinking is best done by
small groups of high intensity creatives.
Certain dynamic thinkers have an innate ability to
reperceiveand challenge deeply held assumptions.
They produce the best work in small group settings
but make valuable contributions in large groups
through the introduction of provocative ideas.
4) Decision makers must be engaged both
intellectually and emotionally.
The presentation of foresight ndings in the form of a
well-written rationale and strategic plan is not necessarily
sucient to ensure consideration by decision makers.
Emotional connectivity must be established through
the use of provocative engagement processes and
multiple media (e.g., video, music, and voice) reporting
and communication mechanisms.
5) The leadership of a major foresight project
requires a complex and unique set of skills.
More than good management skills are required
to design, organize and execute a major foresight
event. The responsibility requires a unique
combination of leadership, abstract thinking,
experimentation and organizational abilities that
has yet to be fully appreciated by many who
commission foresight projects.
6) Development of a cascading communications
strategy is critical for presentation of foresight
fndings to key decision makers.
Frequent cascading communications tailored to
targeted decision makers expands the capacity
of the recipients to embrace new ideas and
commit to action.
At the time of this writing, the insights and
ndings of the Health Foresight Initiative are
being linked to key strategic decision making and
planning processes within both participating
organizations. At Health Canada, a set of
recommendations for short, medium and longer
term actions that will provide both quick results
and business continuity have been presented
through a series of presentations and publications.
Alberta Innovates-Technology Futures has
incorporated the ndings into a corporate
Health Research and Investment Strategy for
consideration by the Board of Directors.
1. Introduction
Between December 2009 and March 2011,
a major collaborative foresight initiative was
undertaken by the Science and Technology
Foresight Policy Division of Health Canada
(a federal government department) and
Alberta Innovates-Technology Futures (a
provincially owned research institution).
The project (referred to in this paper as the
Health Foresight Initiative) involved the
implementation of an iterative multi-
faceted foresight process to gain new
insights and understanding about science
and technology investments that could be
taken today, which would contribute to
improving the health of Canadians in a
single generation (to 2030).
The Health Foresight Initiative was
conceptualized and designed to overcome
the challenges related to translating the
knowledge and insights gained from foresight
activities into tangible recommendations
that result in actionable decisions. Within
the context of government bureaucracies,
powerful system-level impediments make
the utilization of foresight ndings for the
purposes of public policy development
dicult. In the demanding milieu of the of
the public service, these constraints can
limit the ecacy of foresight as a decision
making tool (Macklin, 2010).
This paper is a report on the work of the
Health Foresight Initiative. It explores the
source of impediments to translating
foresight insights into action and then goes
on to describe the design considerations
employed during the Initiative to overcome
these real or perceived barriers. By
presenting this case study, the authors
hope to make a valuable contribution to a
void in the literature related to linking
foresight to actionable decisions.
1.1 Why It Is Difcult To Link Foresight to Action
Many organizations, including government,
increasingly recognize the value of long-
term thinking to inform strategic planning
processes. However, a review of foresight
literature indicates that the generation of
new ideas and insights through strategic
conversations is insucient to lead to
action. In part, this may be due to the
challenges of making decisions in the face
of complexity, but it is also related to a
perception by senior decision makers of risk
and being overwhelmed. Acting upon
these ideas and insights often requires
signicant system level transformations
that challenge traditional approaches and
decision making processes.
Research shows that human decision
making in any complex context is dicult
(Brehmer, 1992; Chermack, 2004; Dorner,
1996). Brehmer (1992) suggests that
decision making in such contexts is often
complicated by:
1) the requirement for a series of decisions
rather than a single decision,
2) interdependence; in that current decisions
constrain future decisions,
3) an environment that changes as a result
of decisions made, and
4) the need for critical timing and correct
ordering.
Furthermore, diering space and time
perspectives may be expected to impact
decision making by bringing dierent
approaches and priorities (Slaughter, 1993).
In the realm of public service, decision
making is particularly complex. To start
with, every public policy has three key
elements: problem denition, the setting of
goals and outcomes, and the choice of
policy instrument whereby those goals are
achieved and the problems addressed (Pal,
2006). The choice of policy instruments
must facilitate achievement of the desired
goals and outcomes. Furthermore, horizontal
alignment is required with other policy
agendas that exist at the regional, national,
and international level. Development of
each element occurs at a dierent stage of
the public policy making process and is in
itself complex. Consequently, the more
multifaceted the issue the more dicult it
is to dene the problems, set policy goals
and make decisions about how to achieve
the desired goals. This diculty is particularly
exacerbated when decisions made in the present
must accommodate the changes and
uncertainty that occur over long periods of time.
The complexity of undertaking decisions in
the public arena is further compounded by
the capricious nature of politics. There is an
expectation for a high degree of certainty
that generally cannot be found when
addressing such complex issues, which
makes it very dicult for decision makers in
the public service to undertake proactive
decisions without incurring political risk.
Increasing public scrutiny combined with
the short electoral cycle means that elected
ocials are highly incented to deliver short
term goods and benets and delay the
imposition of costs (Pal, 2006). Generatively
complex problems (Kahane, 2004) that
require sacrice now for the delivery of
benets beyond the boundaries of the
electoral cycle, present a politically
unpalatable decision making dilemma.
Chermack (2004) identies two other
overarching categories of decision failure:
1) simple explainable error or mistake and
2) when the unusual happens and the
guiding cognitive map and mental model
is rendered obsolete. The rst category
denotes the statistical reality that some
error is inevitable. Failure of the cognitive
map occurs when it becomes dicult for
an individual to articulate what the
environment requires because a system
level discontinuity has occurred, making
their mental model obsolete. Chermack
(2004) describes the tendency of decision
makers to either ignore or underestimate
the contribution of disruptive internal and
external systemic elements. Instead, decisions
are often based upon by habit, conformity,
social pressure, or personal interest.
The literature also asserts that the key to
improving decision making and ultimately
improving outcomes lies in changing or
altering current mental models (Senge,
1990; Chermack, 2004; van der Heijden,
2005). As the clock speed of change
increases and the decision making context
becomes more complex and dynamic, the
re-calibration of existing mental models
becomes essential for good decision
making. Wack (1985) stated that in order to
operate in an uncertain world people
needed a way to reperceive and question
their assumptions about the way the world
works, thereby changing the current
decision making premise.
Despite the growing body of opinion that
foresight activities can lead to the
implementation of dierent (and ideally
improved) courses of action, many key
decision makers are still reluctant to
incorporate foresight ndings into their
decision making processes. The foresight
work described in this case study was
undertaken as a means to help leadership
reperceive the future of health and
understand the forces and factors
impacting the wellness of the next
generation of Canadians. The Health
Foresight Initiative was consciously
designed and communicated so that senior
decision makers in government can
comfortably utilize the information
generated to inform decisions about the
future direction of health policy and related
investments.
2. The Health Foresight Initiative
Case Study
The Health Foresight Initiative involved the
implementation of an iterative multi-faceted
foresight process to gain new insight and
understanding about how to improve the
health of Canadians in a single generation.
More specically, the goal was to inform
both lead organizations about innovative
science and technology investments that
could be made today that would improve
population health outcomes in the future.
The Initiative involved approximately 250
stakeholders and professionals from the
Canadian health sector. Project events were
held in Ottawa, Ontario, Jasper, Alberta, and
Montreal, Quebec. Table 1 presents the
series of workshops that comprised the Health
Foresight Initiative and their respective
outcomes. Pertinent to the interpretation of
the table is the labelling of events as either
Engagement (E) or Innovation (I). Engagement
events were characterized as being larger
in nature and involving a multidisciplinary
group of stakeholders mainly drawn from
the health sector. Engagement events were
designed to foster an understanding of the
complexity of the issue, surface a variety of
perspectives and ideas, and extend current
avenues of dialogue as they relate to the future
health of Canadians. The engagement events
were particularly eective at creating mutual
understanding and developing a common
language amongst diverse stakeholders.
The innovative events involved a smaller
number of highly innovative thinkers (see
section on participant selection). These events
were designed to challenge conventional
opinion and push current thinking about how
to improve health outcomes into uncharted
territory. The ideas that surfaced were intended
to be provocative and disruptive in nature and
were used to stimulate new dialogue in the
broader audiences of the engagement
events and the health sector in general.
During the execution of the 16 month initiative,
the project leaders also drew upon external
sources of ideas and inspiration such as
health sector meetings, publications, and
conferences. Of particular signicance was
a conference hosted by the Institute for the
Future Science and Technology Foresight in Palo
Alto, California, USA. Participation in this event
resulted in the identication of 16 specic science
and technology advancements that could
enhance human health. These ndings were
introduced into the Health Foresight Initiative
dialogue for validation and consideration.
The last event of the Health Foresight
Initiative at the McGill University World
Platform Conference on Health, concluded
on March 17, 2011. As of the writing of this
paper, Health Canada and Alberta Innovates
Technology Futures are in the process of
developing key recommendations for
presentation to executive within their
respective organizations. Communication
of these recommendations is expected
throughout 2011 and 2012.
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More than good
management skills
are required to design,
organize and
execute a major
foresight even
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Table 1 Description of Health Foresight Initiative Workshops and Key Findings
K(: F,1',1*5
developed the focal question
developed mutual understanding
developed a common language
developed an understanding of the changing trends impacting
human health in the next 20 years
determined which trends were most uncertain and highly impacting
developed four plausible scenarios
created an initial assessment of science and policy needs that may
be required to adapt or provide service in each of the scenarios
challenged current views and assumptions
identification of system level contradictions that will create tensions
within the system
identification of health solutions to resolve system level tensions
key insights and understandings about future research and
investment opportunity areas in health related technology
conceptualization of the Health Conveyor Model
(See section 5 for description)
conceptualization of a new framework for health care delivery
in Canada based on the Health Conveyor Model.
exploration of how technology can be applied to improve
health outcomes
share and validate the Health Foresight Initiative findings with
a critical audience
#24.5+23 D(5&4,36,21
1. Trends and Drivers E 90
2. Scenario Creation E 40
3. Contradiction E 35
Oriented Problem Solving
4. Jasper Innovation E 45
Forum
5. Exploration of how I 10
technology may be
utilized to improve the
health of Canadians
6. Development of I 10
a new framework for
enhanced
health outcomes
7. McGill University E 55
World Platform on
Health Conference
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3. Methodology
Simply conducting foresight activities is
often insucient to aect forward looking
decisions or behavioural change. It was the
thesis of the project leaders that by
recognizing the challenges faced by
decision makers and designing the process
in response, the ecacy of the Health
Foresight Initiative would be signicantly
enhanced. Key design considerations for
linking foresight to action included:
1) project leadership
2) design of the process
3) designing for engagement
4) designing for innovation
5) designing for communications
Consideration of these ve aspects was
essential to derive good foresight insights
and empower transformational decisions
related to the application of science and
technology for improving human health.
3.1 Project Leadership
In the authors opinion, the competencies
required to execute a successful foresight
project are worth noting here. They extend
well beyond simple project management
to include the ability to lead a diverse group
of people through often highly sensitive
conversations and then deliver provocative
and potentially disruptive ndings to an
often less than receptive audience of
decision makers who may be deeply
uncomfortable questioning embedded
assumptions about the future.
Like many other high level deliberative
processes, addressing the future requires
strong communication skills, the ability to
multitask, creative thinking and the exibility
to adapt to changing circumstances including
resource availability. Leaders of major foresight
initiatives must apply the tools of complex
adaptive management (Porter & Kramer, 2011).
This approach entails an understanding of
the benets of planning accompanied by
the exibility to maintain the focus on the
future, make mid-course corrections to fulll
the project objectives and respond to new
information and developments as they arise.
Despite the fact that most foresight projects
typically have common elements (diverse
stakeholders, collaborative engagement,
etc.), a depth of experience and knowledge
is required to choose foresight methods
appropriate to the organizational context
and the issue at hand. It is essential that
leaders of foresight work have the ability to
think critically about the way the future is
described and develop innovative linkages
to present day realities. Foresight is in itself,
a disruptive technology. Thinking about a
radically dierent future than has been
complacently assumed, challenges people
and organizations at profoundly deep
levels. Furthermore, there is a delicate
balance and potential tension between
pervayers of convential wisdom who have
invested interests in maintaining the status
quo and the attributes of emergent new
systems that may be described during the
foresight process.
In order to maintain the commitment of
participants to the foresight process it is
necessary to build an environment of trust.
Skill is required to negotiate highly sensitive
conversations that challenge deeply
embedded assumptions and mental models
about the future. To provide participants
with the level of comfort and safety needed
for such open and frank conversations, all
events of the Health Foresight Initiative
were conducted under Chatham House
Rule, which granted anonymity in written
reports and conversations or presentations
conducted outside the workshops.
3.2 Design of the Process
The design of the Health Foresight Initiative
involved a complex set of considerations to
increase the likelihood of the ndings
being converted to action. These included:
dening the focal question,
choice of foresight methodologies,
size of the workshops and facilitation,
budget and logistics
choice of participants, and
the communication strategy
3.2.1 Defning the Focal Question
The cornerstone of any foresight initiative
is the focal question. A well-conceived focal
question sets the tone and scope of the
entire foresight initiative. If the focal
question fails to convey the appropriate
information, the ensuing conversation may
fail in depth, scope and organizational
relevance. The focal question in this case
study explored How to improve the health
of Canadians by 2030 (in a single
generation). It was designed to ensure a full
exploration of the forces and factors that
are aecting the health of the Canadian
population now and into the future.
Current health sector dialogues in Canada
are dominated by discussions about the
sustainability of the publicly funded health
care system. It was a major challenge for
the project leaders to move the discussions
of the Health Foresight Initiative beyond
this present-day anxiety. The focal question
was carefully phrased to encourage
consideration of the current Canadian
health care system as only one of a suite of
factors that can contribute to improving
the health of Canadians. By referring to a
single generation, the focal question
implicitly encouraged participants to think
about maintaining life-long health rather
than how eective the health system is at
curing those who are ill. Other key
requirements were that the focal question:
was an open-ended yet focused inquiry;
did not suggest or lead to a specic right
answer;
contained emotive force and was intellectually
stimulating;
was succinct but challenging; and
was relevant to the participants involved.
3.2.2 The Choice of Foresight Methodologies
The choice of foresight methodology
employed at each workshop was guided
by the the cumulative ndings from
previous workshops and the level of
engagement appropriate for the
participants invited. The workshops were
consciously designed to move participants
out of their comfort zone, which often
provokes emotional response. This was
important because emotive moments
often signal that participants are in the process
of recalibarting their mental models. The Health
Foresight Initiative involved the organization
of seven dierent workshops (See Table 1).
The strategic design considerations for each
are discussed below.
1) Trends and Drivers Workshop
The Trends and Drivers workshop was the
introductory event of the Health Foresight
Initiative. This was an exploratory exercise,
the purpose of which was to vet the topic
with stakeholders in the health sector and
begin to build a common language and
understanding about the forces and factors
that would be impacting the health sector
and by default, the health of Canadians, in
the longer-term.
2) Scenario Creation Workshop
The Scenario Creation Workshop was a
foundational piece of work in the Health
Foresight Initiative. The purpose of this
workshop was to challenge the deeply
embedded assumptions that exist in the
Canadian health sector about current
health care delivery and how the future
health outcomes of Canadians may be
impacted by technology. Using the trends
and drivers identied in workshop one, four
distinct but linked narratives were created
about the health of Canadians in 2030. The
process of creating these narratives served
to build solidity amongst the participants
about the challenges to be addressed if the
health outcomes of the Canadian
population are to improve over the next
twenty years. In addition, the scenarios
provided an opportunity to test current
strategies and discuss possible adaptive
management responses against a range of
possible future outcomes. Achieving this
allegorical understanding was useful as it
validated the relevance of the focal question
and forced preliminary exploration of
disruptive or transformational solution sets.
3) Contradiction-Oriented Problem Solving
Workshop
Contradiction-oriented problem solving is
focused on nding fundamental contradictions
within a system, identifying the core
problems, and nding innovative solution
sets by applying experiential knowledge.
The intent was to examine how science
and technology can enable a response to
current and future challenges. The
approach is based upon the work of
Russian scientist, Genrikh Altshuller(1984).
This approach was chosen for the third
workshop of the Health Foresight initiative
because project leaders recognized that
foresight events need to stimulate
conversations and debates about various
dimensions of the problem. The scenarios
created in workshop two were used as the
basis for identifying emerging tensions
within the Canadian health system. The
workshop was intended to bring about
moments of creative tension as it is through
this tension that individuals often become
aware of the need for action.
4) The Jasper Innovation Forum
The Jasper Innovation Forum engaged an
entirely new group of participants. At this
workshop, the conversation was purposely
focused on improving child and maternal
health. The objective was to produce a set
of general recommendations for future
areas of technology research investment.
Participants were broken into groups and
tasked with answering specic questions
(drafted by the project leaders) about the
role of technology in improving future health
outcomes for Canadians. Opportunity was
provided for presentations by each of the
groups followed by a plenary discussion of
the implications of those ndings for
improving the Health of Canadians.
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An early step of the
communication
strategy was definition
of specific
communications
parameters for targeted
decision makers
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5) Workshop on How Technology May
Improve the Health of Canadians
The rst four workshops of the Health
Foresight Initiative were all large
engagement processes. While each
surfaced many ideas, the level of innovation
that emerged was only incremental and to
some degree, repetitive between events. To
move beyond this plateau a group of ten
highly innovative thinkers were invited to a
one day brainstorming session. The
purpose of this workshop was to synthesis
the dialogue from the previous events,
focus on the most salient ndings and
apply them in an innovative way to the
focal question. The result of this work was
the conceptualization of a completely new
model of health needs assessment called
the Health Conveyor Model.
6) Workshop on the Development of a
Technology Supported Framework for
Enhanced Health Outcomes in Canada
The sixth workshop of the Health Foresight
Initiative reassembled six of the ten people
involved in workshop ve, plus four new
participants. This was an intense and uid
two day discussion focused specically on
the identication of technologies required
to empower individuals to take control of
their own health and enable caregivers to
support those who are unwilling or unable
to help themselves. This workshop was a
watershed event. It represented the rst
time that the conversation shifted to
discussion of what an emergent new
health delivery system might be like, as
opposed to the previous focus on
extensions of the status quo. The work
resulted in the articulation of a new
framework for enhancing the health of
Canadians and an understanding of how
deployment of sensors and web-based
technologies could positively impact the
management of ve chronic conditions
including obesity, mental health, diabetes,
aging and cancer.
7) Workshop at the McGill University
World Platform Conference on Health
The purpose of holding the seventh work
shop as part of a McGill University
conference was to present a new approach
to improving health outcomes that
recognizes self-empowering technologies
as essential tools for maintaining the life-
long health and wellness of Canadians. By
inviting comments from a critical audience
of academics and health professionals in
the prestigious setting of McGill University,
the recommendations that emerge from
the Health Foresight Initiative have
enhanced credibility.
3.2.3 Size of the Workshops and Facilitation
One of the hard but crucial aspects of a
foresight process is to nd ways of thinking
about systemic change and questioning
current assumptions. This requires a careful
sequencing and comparison of disruptive
ideas with current assumptions. During the
Health Foresight Initiative two types of
workshops were strategically employed;
large engagement events that promoted
incremental advances in current thinking
and smaller high intensity events intended
to developed disruptive and provocative
new ideas. By combining the two types of
events, the depth and complexity of the
ideas generated was increased and the
probability of consideration of those ideas
by key decision makers was enhanced.
Professional facilitators were hired for all the
workshops of the Health Foresight Initiative
but they played a much subtler role in the
innovation workshops so that uid
spontaneity was not lost.
3.2.4 Budget and Logistics
Collaboration between Health Canada and
Alberta Innovates-Technology Futures
leveraged the leadership experience and
nancial contributions of each
organization. The combined budget was
sucient to aord the hosting of the
workshops in various locations across the
country, which created the opportunity to
involve a greater number of participants
and incorporate a broader spectrum of
expertise and knowledge.
The large engagement processes were the
most costly events of the Initiative because
they occasionally required paying for
participant travel, and required more sta
time, hospitality costs, and the rental of
event facilities.
3.2.5 Selecting Participants
The choice of participants at each stage of
the Health Foresight Initiative required
careful consideration on the part of the
project leaders. Depending upon the size
and purpose of the workshop, dierent
knowledge sets and capacities were
required. For that reason participation at all
events was by invitation only.
The largest events were the Trends and
Drivers workshop, the Scenario Creation
workshop, the Jasper Innovation Forum,
and the workshop at the McGill University
World Platform Conference on Health. The
project leaders felt that in these large
engagements the best work would be
done by participants who had strong
competencies in integrating and
synthesizing knowledge from a number of
disciplines, had good analytic skills, and
who were skilled in inter-personal
collaboration and communication. To
minimize the chance of group bias, it was
important to assemble a multidisciplinary
group of participants who could bring a
variety of knowledge and perspectives to
the conversation. To create the appropriate
balance of positions and ideas, a mix of
subject-matter experts, innovative thinkers
and creatives was selected. Special eort
was made to solicit participation from the
arts, civil society, the humanities, and other
non-health related disciplines. A crucial
requirement of all participants was that
they exhibit an ability to question their own
assumptions and suspend disbelief.
Several of the participants in the large
engagement events were people of
inuence in the health sector and who
were senior decision makers within their
respective organizations.
These individuals had the greatest potential
for translating new insights and knowledge
gained from the foresight work into
tangible present-day decisions and actions.
Furthermore, they raised the prole of the
initiative and could inuence the thinking
of others who did not participate. The
project leaders considered the inclusion of
key decision makers in the large events as
crucial to ensuring broader acceptance and
ultimately careful consideration of the
ndings for decision making and strategic
planning purposes.
Project leaders also made special eort to
attract several individuals who are uniquely
suited to doing foresight work. The fondly
dubbed title of wing-nut (Soroka, 2010
personal communication) was given to this
type of participant for their uncanny ability
to deal with dialectics and multiple solution
sets, critical thinking skills, and propensity
to generate provocative new ideas. These
hyper-innovators have a habit of looking for
new ideas and information, not just in their
eld and areas of focus but also across
many other disciplines. They have an innate
ability to make abstract linkages in ways
that quickly challenge the status quo and
advance current thinking. Because they
were often the source of radical new ideas,
inclusion of these remarkable people
(Schwartz, 1991) in the large engagement
events provided important intellectual
Thinking about a
radically different
future than has been
complacently assumed,
challenges people and
organizations at
profoundly deep levels
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stimulation. In the smaller innovation workshops,
the ability of these participants to navigate
complex systems, creatively link concepts,
and then translate this new knowledge into
actionable recommendations was of
paramount importance.
3.3 Designing for Engagement
The large engagement events of the Health
Foresight Initiative were characterized as
facilitated workshops typically involving over
40 diverse stakeholders. Large amounts of
ideas and dialogue were generated at the
engagement workshops. Participants tended
to be deeply knowledgeable individuals
with the ability to recognize a good idea,
adapt it, and implement it if they desire. An
understanding of the complexity of the
issue was forced by preventing premature
consensus through the exploration of
second and third order consequences. The
expectation was that participation in the
engagement workshops would expose a
large number of inuential people to a
plethora of perspectives and ideas that
originated outside their respective areas of
responsibility and expertise. This exposure
would challenge their current assumptions
about the forces and factors that could
impact population health by 2030 and
build anticipation for release of the Initiative
ndings and recommendations.
3.3.1 Designing for Innovation
Small groups of highly motivated people
are often most able to generate radical new
ideas. Consequently, participation in the
two smallest workshops of the Health
Foresight Initiative was purposely restricted
to ten people, many of whom were drawn
from the pool of hyper-innovators. These
innovation workshops were designed to be
intense and creative exchanges that
consolidated previous dialogue into
innovative new concepts. The purpose of
both was to synthesize highly innovative
policy and investment recommendations
from the dialogue of the rst four events.
3.3.2 Designing for Communication
From the onset, project leaders recognized
the need for a determined communication
strategy targeted at senior executives,
health industry leaders and strategic
partners. Drawing from the eld of
knowledge management, a cascading
(Snowden, 2010) communication strategy
was developed that entailed ongoing
presentations about the progress and
ndings of the Health Foresight Initiative. It
was based upon the premise that it is easier
to introduce new ideas gradually, versus a
mass delivery all at once. This type of
cascading communication is intended to
expand the recipients zone of proximal
development (expansion of thought from ones
initial position). The premise being that gradual
uptake and expansion of understanding
allows time for reection and absorption of
new concepts, building the receptor capacity
of the target audience. Deployment of a
cascading communication approach was very
eective at maintaining the prole of the event
over a 16 month period and building anticipation
for the project recommendations amongst
key decision makers.
An early step of the communication strategy
was denition of specic communications
parameters for targeted decision makers.
Analysis of their thinking process, language
used, motivators, past actions, and case
studies where they were inspired to act
allowed articulation of the foresight
ndings in terms relevant to that decision
makers context. A report was generated
upon completion of each workshop,
accompanied by a number of other tailored
communication tools such as brieng
notes, concept papers and power- point
presentations. Short video presentations
were created of the four scenario narratives
generated in workshop 2. Through the use
of music, images and voice decision makers
were emotionally engaged in these
ctional futures in a way not possible
through the written word.
A second communication consideration
was related to participant engagement. The
ability to attract the right participants is
essential for successful foresight activities.
Project leaders recognized the participant
invitations provided an opportunity to
build expectation and raise the prole of
the Initiative, given that many of those
invited were also key decision makers.
Invitations were accompanied by a short
concept paper that presented the focal
question and discussed future health
related challenges. To make attendance
more attractive, each invitation articulated
a value proposition for the invitee, i.e., the
ability to interact with other leading
thinkers from the health sector and
exposure to leading edge thinking.
Throughout the Health Foresight Initiative,
project leaders capitalized on as many
opportunties as possible to present
ndings to internal and external audiences.
Comments and feedback received during
these presentations were used to rene the
communication process. Targeted
communications about the Health
Foresight Initiative ndings will continue at
Health Canada and Alberta Innovates-
Technology Futures throughout 2011 and
2012 to ensure that the insights and ndings
continue to be actively incorporated into
ongoing planning processes.
4. Health Foresight Initiative Findings
Four major insights emerged from the Health
Foresight Initiative:
1) Technology can empower individuals to
take greater responsibility for their own
health. Through personal data tracking and
sharing capacities, engagement in social
networks and access to health and lifestyle
information on the internet, individuals are able
to become proactive partners with physicians,
communities of interest, and other health
care service providers for illness prevention,
treatment and wellness enhancement.
2) Health care professionals are now able to
provide many health related services to
consumers and patients any where in the world.
Conversely, Canadians have unprecidented
access to a vast array of health care services
(and products) from outside the public
funded health care system. Severing the
geographic link between patient and
physician is a game changerfor the Canadian
public health care system.
3) The ability to interpret and act upon the
increasing plethora of health related data and
information will depend upon the ability of
the user to validate and understand its
implications. The inappropriate applications
and use of data and knowledge by
individuals, health care professionals and
organizations is an emerging challenge.
4) Improving the health of Canadians will
require the engagement and commitment
of Canadian society in general. Government
cannot achieve this objective in isolation.
Three factors emerged as particularly
signicant to Health Canada and Alberta
Innovates-Technology Futures during the
Health Foresight Initiative; (i) the need to
broaden the denition of, and approach to,
health and wellness, (ii) the need to recognize
the individual as a full partner in maintaining
health and wellness and (iii) the paramount
role of digital technologies in improving the
health outcomes of Canadians. More
specically, the ndings of the Health
Foresight Initiative indicated that priorities
must be given to investment in science and
technology areas that:
The purpose of the
Health Foresight
Initiative was to inform
science and technology
investment decisions
taken today in order to
improve the health
outcomes of Canadians
over the next twenty
years
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directly aect the health of the body; i.e.
bio-medical monitoring devices
enables the development and
implementation of networks supporting
enhanced health systems and that
improve integration and sharing of health
information, i.e. electronic health records.
facilitate monitoring and analysis of
environmental inuences, enhances
environmental quality and improves
research capabilities, i.e. networked
ubiquitous sensing devices for bio-medical
and environmental data collection.
Science and technology that integrates all
three areas should become policy and
investment priorities (see Figure 1). Furthermore,
future health policy and investment
decisions should be directed toward the
creation of an enabling environment that
promotes and encourages healthy living as
well as the treatment of illness.
5. CONCLUSIONS
The purpose of the Health Foresight Initiative
was to inform science and technology
investment decisions taken today in order to
improve the health outcomes of Canadians
over the next twenty years. To increase the
likelihood of the ndings and insights being
used to inform strategic decisions, the project
design incorporated an iterative and
integrated process of foresight engagement,
innovation and communication.
This robust foresight project design fostered
innovative new ideas and solution sets that
are (at the time of writing) being
communicated to broad audiences of health
sector leaders and stakeholders for
consideration. Early indications are that these
ndings have been positively received by key
decision makers. They will continue to be
incorporated into the strategic planning and
decision making processes of Health Canada
and Alberta Innovates-Technology Futures
over coming months.
THE
ENVIRONMENT NETWORKS
THE BODY
ENABLING Health
Programs, Policies and S&T
Investments
SCIENCE
& TECHNOLOGY
References
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Thesis: University of Calgary.
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http://www.cognitive-edge.com/newsletter.php
van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. (2nd ed.) Chichester, West Sussex, England: John
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Figure 1 Health Science and Technology Policy and Investment Priority Areas
14
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myForesight
BY
Mohd Afzanizam Mohd Badrin
[email protected]
0;A2= >?;=D
Discussions on the healthcare services in most developing countries
underlined some issues and challenges with regards to:
rising income leads to demand for a better quality of life via quality-oriented healthcare services,
increased supply of healthcare services to cater for the increased number of aging population and
changed in lifestyles,
prevention and control of non-communicable and chronic diseases caused by modern lifestyle,
demand for increased accessibility of care outside hospitals, moving health services into the patients
own homes; and
the need for services efciency, personalisation and quality healthcare, and the constrain of limited
fnancial resources.
H
ome service is the fastest growing trend
in healthcare. Cost plays a major role in
promoting this trend. Limited resources and
increasing healthcare costs have led to
proposals to expand home care services.
More individuals are self-managing their
health and preference for healthcare at
home rather than in public or private
hospitals increases.
Modern lifestyle has made knowledge and skills in
information and communication technology (ICT)
essential. The rapid development of ICT oers huge
possibilities for the future, particularly in the healthcare
sector. Technological developments create opportunities
for people to get medical consultations and advices
from the comfort of their homes. At the Forsyth Medical
Center in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, nurses can
monitor lives of some diabetes patients even when
theyre not at the clinic using an app called Ginger.io.
These modern technologies are utilised at hospitals in
most developed countries. IBM stated that the
combination of residential care and home healthcare
contributed $45 billion to the industry and is projected
to continuously grow
i
.
In Malaysia, the cost and quality of healthcare has
improved. However, the adoption of technology for
healthcare at home, which is relatively new, is still at an
infant stage. The development for the adoption of
home healthcare technology has been slow and
unplanned. Although there are initiatives and
experiments in this area by public and private initiatives,
they are hindered by several factors such as lack of an
integrated home care system and the unavailability of
suitably trained technicians.
Home healthcare, in its traditional form, has existed in
Malaysia for several years. Malaysians from all walks of
life get home visit services to care for women after
giving birth and new born babies. Apart from post natal
treatment, mothers are given medical advices and
lessons on childcare by government midwives and
nurses that visit their homes.
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.LIFESTYLE
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TYPE OF CARE
Tertiary
Secondry
Primary
TYPE OF CARE
SHMCH*
State Health
Department
District Health
Office & Hospitals
Community
Clinics**
ADMINISTRATION LEVEL
Community / Village
*SHMCH- Specialised Hospitals and Medical College Hospitals
** Community Clinics include health clinics, rural clinics, midwife clinics, mobile clinics
State
National
District
15
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Home medical care in Malaysia has evolved. Not only
new mothers and babies, but the elderlies and
general patients are also reaping the benet of
home visits by government medical stas. And, as
home care technologies improve, the benets will
spread to all not only modern mommies, the
elderlies and general patients, but informal
caregivers, medical professionals and medical
organisations too. Receiving healthcare at home
soon will become common.
Trend 1: Home as a Centre for Future
Healthcare
Naomi Fired, vice president of Kaiser Permanente in
2009, forecasted that by 2015 the home will be the
hub of healthcare. His optimistic view for the
demand of home healthcare at home was based on
and driven by the opinion of Dr Steven Landers who
listed ve primary forces that will push for home
medical care. The ve primary forces are aging
population, rapid development of ICT, increase
medical cost, privacy and personalisation, and
patients convenience.
The increase of aging population increases the need
for specialised medical attention. Studies have shown
that an elderly person faces a higher probability to
suer chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease
(CVD)
iii
. CVD patients often need constant care and
attention, thus the need for home medical care.
The rapid development of ICT accelerates the
adoption of home tele-health care technology
iv
.
Tele-health care focuses largely on remote patient
monitoring. In this capacity, Tele-health care allows
for improved quality of life for many patients
suering from chronic conditions.
Apart from meeting the driving goal in healthcare
improving the quality and accessibility to the
medical treatment, Tele-health is cost eective.
The cost of healthcare is rising faster than the levels
of available public funding, thus increasing the need
for home healthcare. A study done by Economist
Intelligence Unit identied the main drivers of rising
healthcare costs in Europe as
v
:
Aging populations and the related rise in chronic
diseases.
Costly technological advances.
Patients demands, driven by the increased
knowledge of options and less healthy lifestyles.
Legacy priorities and nancing structures that is
ill-suited to today's requirements.
Limited capacity of the health facility and cost
constrained drives patients to consider home healthcare.
Medical care at home provides considerable
advantages to consumers or patients, such as:
Accessibility and cost benefts. Population
growth will change the health delivery system. Today,
almost everyone owned mobile devices that can
be integrated with the healthcare monitoring
systems using wireless mobile communication
network technology that provides greater
accessibility, freedom, portability and convenience,
especially to elders and patients at homes. The
long-term cost of medical and healthcare services
can thus be reduced and, eventually, the overall
quality of healthcare services can be improved.
Personalisation. Healthcare at home provides
convenience and privacy to the patients. This is
part of consumers preferences that demands for
personalised services.
Cost concerns. Higher demand for healthcare
services will result in increase of costs of medical
and healthcare. The situation is also worsened by
the absence of competitive market. Most patients
are shifting towards home healthcare as a
measure to minimise cost.
Current healthcare environment is characterized by
three major problems: accessibility, quality, and cost.
All three are interrelated to one another. They
inuence the patient to decide where and when to
get treatment public medical facilities, private
hospitals and clinics, or at home. Private and public
healthcare providers seek to integrate healthcare
services in order to improve quality and ensure
aordability to all, whilst patients will look for
convenient health care services that oer cost
benets to them.
Current healthcare
environment is
characterized by three
major problems:
accessibility, quality,
and cost
Figure 1 Hierarchy of public health care system in Malaysia
ii
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Trend 2: Acute Care at Home
Two dening features that encourage home
healthcare market are the predominance of for-
prot facilitiesand the perception of low quality care
in many public facilities
vi
. Home hospitalisation
services (HHS), already being used in many
developed countries such as Italy, Australia, Canada,
England and Israel, become the alternative. The shift
towards a hospital-at-home model is meant for
specic patients and medical conditions that need
to be supported by clinical research. HHS basically
allows for diagnostic and therapeutic interventions,
commonly carried out at the hospital, to be
performed at home. It has been projected that, in
the next twenty years, 46% of Americans who
survive to the age of 65 will use home healthcare at
some point in their lives
vii
.
Conditions treated by a commercial venture in US
called Clinically Home includes pneumonia, chronic
obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), heart failure,
asthma, cellulitis, urosepsis and deep vein
thrombosis
viii
. In Italy, HHS has been operating in
Turin since 1985. It started with a stroke care project.
Stroke is consuming 5% of all hospital resources
ix
.
However, there are obstacles faced in HHS programs.
Currently, insurers are reluctant to provide
reimbursement and not many physicians are keen
to invest time and resources in this program.
Trend 3: Home as Centre of Wellness
and Prevention
The constant improvement of healthcare extends
life expectancy. On the other hand, infectious
diseases and lifestyle diseases such as diabetes may
mean a downturn in life expectancy. As the old
adage goes: Prevention is better than cure, the
prevention of health problems through healthy
lifestyles is more eective than the increasing use of
medicines. Exercise is the best prescription and, for
many busy individuals, the option is to exercise at home.
The two main factors that would make home the
centre for wellness and prevention of illnesses in the
next decade are:
Prevention vs. cost for healthcare. In most OECD
countries, the share of gross domestic product
devoted to healthcare expenditures has grown.
Rising costs in healthcare will be inevitable. Per capita,
the United States expenditure for healthcare is
about three times the amount allocated by
Finland. Total health expenditure as percentage of
GDP in Malaysia is increasing more than three folds.
Disease prevention is denitely important: 40% of
deaths in the United States are considered
preventable
xii
. The application of preventive practices
across the lifespan will minimize risk factors and
improve survival as well as quality of life. Prevention
services can be in various settings, including the home
xiii
.
Real-time health monitoring. Prevention of
disease involves testing and screening. It is
essential to prevent, avoid or predict future illness.
This requires the implementation of health-
related ICT that provides more cost-eective
healthcare. Research Specialist Rob Kaminsky
suggests that the Advanced Remote Patient
Monitoring Systems allows physicians the ability
to monitor and record everything from basic vital
signs to cardiovascular and respiratory issues. This
keeps patients out of the hospitals and in their
homes where they are more comfortable unless
actual treatment is needed
xiv
. However, adoption
of technology by older adults is still limited.
Health-related ICT for the elderly is suggested to
be kept simple and able to demonstrate
signicant benets to them
xv
. Familiarisation of the
0;A2= >?;=D
Technological
developments create
opportunities for
people to get medical
consultations and
advices from the comfort
of their homes
P
r
e
v
a
l
a
n
c
e

(
%
)
E
s
t
i
m
a
t
e
d

p
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
25
10
15
20
5
0
2,5000,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
2006
Est. population,2006 Est. population,2011 Prevalence projection, 2006 Prevalence projection, 2011
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20020
0
Current
Project
Figure 2 Burden of Diabetes in Malaysia: Adults age 18 years & above
x
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Figure 3 Total Expenditure on Health, 19972008 (RM, Nominal Value)
xi
TEH
(
%

G
D
P
)
(
R
M

B
i
l
l
i
o
n
)
TEH as percentage of GDP
Year
8213.00
5,000.0
-
1997 1998 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
30,000.00
35,000.00
40,000.00 6.00
5.00
5.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
-
2.90
3.20 3.20
3.40
3.70
3.80
4.58
4.51
4.22
4.33
4.78
4.75
8966.00
9734.00
11516.00
12520.00
13620.00
19164.00
21378.40
21914.79
24.79
30666.65 35148.96
technology via training and courses will increase
the level of awareness and encourage the
adoption of health-related ICT.
Trend 4: Special Care for Elderly at Home
Older persons represent the largest and most active
population of healthcare and medication consumers.
Most elderly people who need special care are living
at home, sometimes alone and unassisted. The
inuencing factors for senior living are:
Accessibility to the quality healthcare: As the
number of empty-nestelderly rises in the country,
ensuring accessibility to the quality healthcare is
a public health concern. The modern social
community called an empty-nestelderly is usually
categorised as a group who had higher income
but less social support. This segment of the
population has a higher prevalence of chronic
diseases. They also had higher home healthcare
needs and were willing to pay for home healthcare.
Increasing health literacy of the population
results in an exponential increase in public
expectation for health care in most countries. In
countries where healthcare budget is unable to
keep up with the demand, healthcare services
suer. Facilities and services at public medical
centres do not satisfy the population and services
and treatment at private hospitals and clinics are
expensive. As a result, more and more people are
resorting to home healthcare.
The availability of and access to primary
healthcare. Primary care is the typical way
patients access the healthcare system. Studies
show that the potential access to primary care is
greatly dependent on spatial and aspatial
dimensions of access
xvi
. The expanding linkages
between the healthcare institution and senior
living providers such home care, clinic and rehab
providers provide a network of care services that
begins in the home while also oers residential
facilities when needed
xvii
.
Recent reforms have demanded a competitive
market-driven approach to healthcare. Cost, time
and technology readiness will remain as the major
concern to consumers. Various strategies has been
outlined to increase health services to the public,
including transfer of patients directly to home, early
discharge, the increase of same day surgery, transfer
of elderly patients to low-intensity care settings and
a variety of home-care initiatives such as Home
Hospital or Hospital in the Home.
Changes in consumers behaviour and preference
towards healthcare services that can provide
personalisation, convenience, eective option, costs
concern, accessibility and literacy improvement in
health-related ICT will further boost the demand for
home healthcare as well as alter the delivery system
for healthcare services. These changes have inspired
some delivery system innovations. Medical clinics are
appearing in retail stores. Physician house calls are
making a comeback. These innovative access
approaches oer important benets if they are well
executed and the systems fully integrated.
References
i. Redefning Value and Success in Healthcare. February
2012, http://www-935.ibm.com.
ii. S.S. Radiah Sharif, Noor Hasnah Moin and Mohd Omar.
2012. Location allocation modeling for healthcare facility
planning in Malaysia. Computers & Industrial Engineering;
62: 1000-10
iii. Naughton C., Bennett K., Feely J. 2006. Prevalence of
chronic disease in the elderly based on a national
pharmacy claims database. Age Ageing; 35(6):633-6.
iv. Koch S. Home tele-health current state and future
trends. Int J Med Inform 2006;75(8):565-76.
v. The future of healthcare in Europe. March 2011,
http://www.managementthinking.eiu.com.
vi. Grabowskia D.C., Feng Z., Hirth R., Rahman M., Mor V.
2013. Efect of nursing home ownership on the quality of
post-acute care: An instrumental variables approach.
Health Economics 32:12 21
vii. Spillman, B.C., Lubitz, J., 2002. New estimates of
lifetime nursing home use: have patterns of use changed?
Medical Care 40 (10), 965975.
viii. About Us, Clinically Home, viewed June 2013,
http://clinicallyhome.com
ix. Dobkin, B. 1995. The economic impact of stroke.
Neurology; 45: 56-60
x. Global Science and Innovation Advisory Council Malaysia.
Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD) in Malaysia. 2012.
Malaysian Industry-Government Group for High Technology.
xi. Malaysia National Health Accounts: Evidence to, Time
for Change. 2009. Ministry of Health, Malaysia.
xii. McGinnis JM, Williams-Russo P, Knickman JR. 2002. The
case for more active policy attention to health promotion.
Health Afairs. 21(2):78-93.
xiii. National Prevention Council, National Prevention
Strategy,2011. US Department of Health and Human Services,
Ofce of the Surgeon General, www.healthcare.gov.
xiv. Telemedicine and the Future of Healthcare IT. May
2013. http://blog.marketresearch.com
xv. Heart T., Kalderon E. 2011. Older adults: Are they ready
to adopt health-related ICT? Medical Informatics. 1-23
xvi. Bissonnette L.,Wilson K., Bell S., Ikram Shah T. 2012.
Neighbourhoods and potential access to healthcare: The role
of spatial and aspatial factors. Health & Place. 18: 841-853
xvii. George Ydeinak, Top 10 Trends in Senior Housing for
2012, Senior Housing News, January 9, 2012,
http://seniorhousingnews.com
Trend summary
Consumption is a basic fact of life. People need
necessities such as food, water, clothing, energy,
etc. But they also desire nonessential things
such as travel, personal interactions, information,
and entertainment to enrich their lives.
Consumerism changes peoples lives.
People gain access to novel products and services
that they could not realistically produce themselves,
from fuel to imported food.
Purchasing goods and services frees up time for
people to pursue other activities, e.g. purchasing
prepared food may free up time for leisure or education.
Consumption styles and habits help dene social
status, and people around the world are increasingly
dened by what and how they purchase. Ones
purchasing styles and habits become clues to
other people about what one considers important,
whether it is the latest Nike shoes or organic food.
For some people consumption provides a common
benchmark to measure personal accomplishment.
Consumerism can improve peoples lives, giving
them access to useful products and services. But,
at the same time, it also denes the haves and the
have-nots which may create personal dissatisfactions
and even societal instability. For example, the
Chinese Ministry of Labor and Social Security recently
reported that the emerging Chinese income gap
could create social unrest in the country.
Consumerism stokes the res of national economies.
It is estimated that two new jobs are created for
every Chinese-made car that rolls o the production
line, and the salaries of these workers fuel other
parts of the Chinese economy.
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Introduction
L
Lifestyles that rely on consumer goods and that focus heavily on the acquisition of these
goods continue to spread around the world. As this trend unfolds, purchasing power
determines social standing in society; and the type, price and brand of consumer goods and/or
services becomes the symbol of identity.
Globalization and rising incomes encourage consumerism. In developing countries middle class
societies are emerging and gaining the nancial means to pursue and support consumer
lifestyles. The ideological obstacles that once kept consumerism in check in several parts of the
world have fallen away in recent decades with the decline of the Soviet Union and Chinas change
in its economic policy. In developed countries, consumerism continues to evolve. Consumer
expectations are rising and, for many people, things that were once considered luxuries are
becoming necessities e.g., PCs, mobile phones, or international travel.
Malaysia could attain developed nation status by 2018, two years earlier than targeted, if
economic growth remains at 5.3% to 5.5% in the next four years. Malaysias current population
of 29.7 million is growing steadily at an annual rate of about 1.8%. Greater Kuala Lumpur is now
home to six million people, which is 20% of Malaysians population and by the year 2020, there
will be 10 million people living in Kuala Lumpur and its surrounding areas. Increased populations
mean increased consumption in overall market. The country has seen a steady increase in the
standard of living and with it, its purchasing power (per capita income exceeds RM19,739
or US$5,681).
B,
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Scale of consumerism
The urbanisation rate is expected to increase at a
cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.2 per cent
between 2013 and 2018 in Asia Pacic. In
Malaysia, about 2.6 million people are expected
to move from rural to urban areas in Malaysia
between the same periods.
Urbanization and migration create employment
problems. However, the unemployment rate in
Malaysia has decreased 3.0% in April 2013 whilst
the unemployment rates of developed countries
such as United Kingdom and US are soaring UK., 7.7%
and US., 7.5% for the same month.
Economists target the levels of ination in Malaysia
to be at 2.5% for 2013, taking into account the current
implementation of the goods and services tax (GST)
and the extension of retirement age to 60 starting
1 July 2013.
In recognising the complexities of urbanisation
challenges, government agencies, policy makers and
industry players are formulating more integrated
approach to address the critical issues such as water,
environment, waste and city planning in more
holistic way.
The Human Development Report 2013 highlights
Malaysias predicament which is seen to be in a
middle-income trap. The country is no longer able
to compete with neighboring countries in low-cost
production and lacks the skills for high-end tasks in
global production networks. Malaysias progress is
restrained by inadequate research and development
capacity, lack of design and process engineers,
and technical and production workers.
Malaysias economy is
seen to be in a middle-
income trap. The country
is no longer able to
compete with neighboring
countries in low-cost
production and lack the
skills for high-end tasks in
global production networks.
MALAYSIA INFLATION RATE
Annual Change Consumer Price Index
Jul/11 Jan/12 Jul/12
3.5
4
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
3.5
4
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
1.6
1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.3
1.5
1.2
3.3 3.3 3.3
3.5
3.4 3.4 3.4
3
1.9
1.8
2.7
2.2
2.1
Jan/13
Figure 1 MALAYSIA INFLATION RATE: Annual Change Consumer Price Index
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Like everywhere else in the world, the needs of
consumers in Malaysia evolve and change over
the time.
Geographic shift
Consumption in urban areas are signicantly
higher than in rural areas as proportion of
urban population increased to 71.0 per cent in 2010
compared with 62.0 per cent in 2000, according
to Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM).
Sustainable consumption
Consumers play an important role in sustainable
consumption. It is hard to fulll the needs of
consumers because they change over a time.
What is important today might not be relevant
in the next 100 years.
Redirected consumerism
Consumers around the world make their purchasing
decision based on ethical, religious, political, or
other beliefs. For example, some Malaysians refuse
to buy Israel products due to Palestines issues;
consumers in South Korea prefer national brand
rather than global brand. It is important to note
that this kind of consumerism factor driving the
Koreas economy. To date, Malaysia is unable to
duplicate South Koreans success as Malaysias
consumerism is driven by western lifestyles.
Beyond consumerism
Climate change awareness and smart technology
inuence consumers behavior and change
their consumption culture.
1993/94* 1998/99* 2004/05 2009/10
2,500
2,190
190
239
1,953
1,631
1,161
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
31
101
124
327
29
89
495
75
48
444
167
213
38
92
103
314
27
83 83 33 83 3333
44430 4300
59
35
393 9333
105
209
31
70
59
227
29
84 444
3363 3633
56
30
363 6333
78
145
17
53
24
168
21
884 84 84 444
21 21 21 21
3363 6333
41
26
276 66
Non-alcoholic Food & Beverage
Clothing and Shoes
Home Decoration and Appliance
Transportation
Recreation and Culture
Hotel and Restaurant
Average Monthly Household Expenditure
Alcoholic Beverage and Tobacco
Housing and Utilities
Health Care
Communications
Education
Goods and Services
Trend's relationship to sector
The spread of consumerism in developing countries is helping to foster the idea of the home as an
extension of the self and a sign of upward mobility. California-style gated communities are popping
up for IT workers in India. It can also mean upgrading functionality in the home, e.g., with modern
appliances. In developed countries the home has long been seen in these terms; aesthetics are
central and people strive for the latest accoutrements.
In Malaysia, analysis by type of housing units shows that consumers prefer terrace / townhouses /
cluster houses and ats / apartments / condominiums rather than detached and semi-detached
houses. Green focus agenda is being adopted in almost all new construction planning.
The use of energy and natural resources rises in parallel with the rise of modern consumerism. For
example, on the back of its shift towards consumerism China has become the worlds largest market
for grain, meat, coal, and steel. This growth has also sparked a brisk trade in illegally harvested
lumber, leading to deforestation across Asia.
Generally, Malaysians are aware of energy eciency. Consumers is Malaysia are looking for better
products in term of energy saving and fuel eciency.
Consumerism Relevance to Business Sectors :
Business sector
Construction
Energy and
natural resources
Figure 2 Household Expenditure Trends, Malaysia 1993 to 2010
Malaysias progress is
restrained by inadequate
research and development
capacity, lack of design
and process engineers,
and technical and
production workers.
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia
Change of Consumerism
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Trend's relationship to sector
FMCG help consumers eciently and easily meet day-to-day needs such as personal care, meal
preparations, and home cleaning. At the same time, they provide consumers with relatively inexpensive
opportunities to purchase branded lifestyle products such as cosmetics and personal care products.
Consumerism in established and emerging markets is often supported by credit. Access to credit is on the
rise in developing countries, helping to nance consumers spending on cars, homes, household
appliances, etc.
Inuential nancial news magazine, The Economist, has named Malaysia as the worlds most important
Islamic-nance center. Malaysias Islamic banking assets growth rate is between 18% and 20% annually.
Over the past few years takaful, an Islamic insurance scheme, has enjoyed signicant expansion with
an estimated average annual growth rate of 25% as apposed to 10.2% for the conventional insurance
between year 2004 and 2007. Financial planning is becoming essential among Malaysian.
Consumerism means that people look at food not just as a source of calories, but also as a lifestyle
product and even a mark of personal distinction, e.g., distinguishing oneself by eating modern
packaged foods in the Third world, or Icelandic free-range lamb in the developed countries.
The practice of eating-out has become a trend among urban workers, students and even families
because of work or there is no food available at home. In Malaysia, Halal status has been the most
important factor for Muslim consumers.
A rise in consumerism usually means governments will need to tackle questions of market
regulation, product and food safety, and authenticity in advertising. Governments must also decide
which goods and services (such as phone service or water) are social goods and which are part of
the market.
Governments policy and regulation is one of the drivers in consumption trend. For example, by
focusing on green growth, Malaysia can expedite its target to reduce GHG by 40% in 2020 from its
level in 2005. Malaysia is condent that the services sector will contribute 70% to the gross domestic
product (GDP) by 2015.
Healthcare is part of the social and government sector in many parts of the world, but in others it is a
consumer service. Lifestyle drugs prescription drugs that address conditions that are chronic but
not life-threatening have become popular worldwide. Medical tourism is on the rise as a distinct
form of consumer-focused medicine. These and other trends push medicine more towards the
consumer realm. Malaysia is ranked among the top ve destinations for medical / health tourism.
Factors such as cost-eective treatments, skilled medical professionals and government support are
driving the growth.
There is a big concern on dietary pattern such as eating outside, skipping meals and relying on fast
food. This dietary pattern contributes to non-communicable diseases associated with over nutrition
namely obesity, hypertension, coronary diseases and cancers.
Information technology, primarily the Internet, has become increasingly important to consumerism
in recent years. E-commerce, collaborative ltering, eBay, and product research are just a few of the
innovations. Infotech devices have moved from geek to chic, and buying and using the latest IT
for some consumers in all three Worlds is a way to attain an air of coolness and modernity.
The numbers of people buying smartphones has increased to 7.7 million in January 2013. Broadband
penetration in Malaysia increased from 55.6% in 2010 to 66.0% in 2012. Report by McKinsey &
Company in 2012 placed Malaysia at third place among countries that enjoyed productivity increase
for SMEs due to web technologies. Sharing information on the internet enable consumers to
access more options available online. Some consumers are moving towards collaborative
consumption where people make deals or swap things and services over the internet. eGovt
initiatives to transform government services online has increased productivity, specically
towards a paperless government.
Leisure time is closely linked with consumerism in World 1 and is increasingly in other parts of the
world, with people spending time to go to the movies, travel, buy books, etc. For some people,
consumerism itself has become a pastime, e.g., shopping at the mall, bargain hunting, or antiquing.
Business sector
Fast-moving
consumer goods (FMCG)
Financial services
Food and beverage
Government
Health & Medicine
Information technology
Leisure
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Business sector
Media
Mobility
Retail
Asia rising
Womens power
Urbanisation
Rising mobility
Media spread
Cultural flows
Networked world
Electrification
Aging
Cultural multipolarity
Population growth
Transparency
Migration
Changing families
Time pressure
Social freedom
Ethical Consumption
Monetization
Middle class growth
Consumerism
Trend's relationship to sector
Popular media reinforce the idea of consumerism as a lifestyle and carry the advertising meant to
draw consumers to products and services. Consumers in Malaysia now have more access to a media
where more people have more variety of sources for information and entertainment through
dierent devices. Apart from traditional newspapers, magazines and television, sharing information
through social media has become a trend. Some consumers prefer smartphones for their desirable
features and advance ability in term of media accessibility.
As people embrace consumerism, expectations about transportation change. Personal mobility is a
prime component of consumer life in developed countries. The model of personal car ownership
and leisure travel has now been passed on to developing countries and has become the
aspirational model for developing countriess emerging consumer class.
In Malaysia, a family without a car is a rarity. Even students of driving age from middle and upper
middle class families have their own cars to travel from their residents to colleges or universities.
Formal retail outlets such as hypermarkets and supermarkets that provide one-stop shopping are
common in developed countries are making inroads into developing countries. The old fashioned
sundry shops and street vendors wil soon be things of the past.
Relationships to other Trends
Consumerism interacts with many other trends. The diagram below shows these relationships its closely intertwined and driven by other trends
including the rise of middle class, monetization, media spread, ethical shopping, etc.
Source: INNOVARO: Top 20 Trends Consumerism
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Relationships to Other Top 20 Trends
Other Trend
Middle-class
growth
Monetization
Ethical
consumption
Social freedom
Time pressure
Asia rising
Womens power
Urbanization
Relationship to
consumerism
Driver
Mutually
reinforcing
Outcome
Mutually
reinforcing
Mutually
reinforcing
Mutually
reinforcing
Driver
Mutually
reinforcing
Relationship description
Over the last century the emergence of
large middle-income groups in developed
countries societies has gone hand-in-hand
with the creation of modern consumerism.
Rising middle classes are now helping
spread consumerism to developing
countries.
Monetization gives consumers new options
for consumerist identities and pursuits. The
rise of consuming classes provides the
incentive for businesses to monetize daily
activities.
Ethical consumption is a specic form of
consumerism in which people integrate
personal values into their purchasing
choices. Rather than focusing solely on
standard variables such as price and quality,
consumers integrate ethical, religious,
political, and other beliefs into their
purchasing decisions, enhancing the tie
between consumption and identity.
Rising freedom gives people more
economic and social room to engage in
consumer lifestyles. At the same time, the
new choices available in consumerist
societies let people express their social
freedom as they buy products that help
dene and dierentiate them from their
fellow citizens (e.g., sport cars, hip-hop
music, organic
Consumerism increases options and the
need to support ones expenditure with
work, boosting time pressure. At the same
time, the purchase of consumer goods
(such as prepared foods) can free up time.
The rise of Asia is creating new demands for
consumer goods and services. At the same
time, the lure of consumer-focused lifestyles
is helping drive the rise of Asian economies.
As their position in society improves, womens
economic options and resources increase. This
means that they are able to more directly
drive and direct consumer spending.
Cities expose people to the range of consumer
life, and oer economic opportunities that can
boost peoples income, driving consumer
spending. At the same time the allure of
consumer life can draw people in search of
modern lifestyles to the cities.
Change in the future
Much of future growth in consumerism will
be driven by the expansion of the global
middle class in developing countries such
as China, India, Brazil, Russia, and Mexico.
Time-consuming household activities are
monetized in consumer societies, including
food preparation and childcare. As incomes
rise, more and more of consumer lifestyles
will be monetized, e.g., exercise, dog
walking, and shopping.
Developed countries consumers will likely
lead the rise in ethical consumption. As
consumers in developing countries learn
more about ethical consumption, their
choices may also be shaped by these ideas
and will demand products that meet their
distinct ethical criteria.
Consumer goods will be used more and
more as a way for people in developing
countries to dene themselves and express
their growing freedom. Countries that are
opening up will help spread modern
consumerism further around the world.
Consumers in developing countries will pay
more attention to time. They will
increasingly seek products and services to
alleviate their rising time pressure.
Asias budding consumers will not make the
same choices that people in developed
countries do. Their styles, preferences, and
consumption patterns will contribute to the
mix of global consumer options and in
some cases inuence the choices of
developed countries consumers.
Womens rising economic and social status
will be expressed through consumption
choices, and used to pursue new identity
options.
The future growth of cities, especially in
developing countries, will expose
consumers to a wider variety of consumer
options than ever before.
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Other Trend
Rising mobility
Media spread
Cultural fows
Networked
world
Electrifcation
Relationship to
consumerism
Outcome
Mutually
reinforcing
Driver
Outcome
Driver
References
1. Top 20 Consumerism
2. Malaysian Demographic and Economic Trends
3. Malaysian Retail Trends
4. Malaysia Consumer Life
5. Malaysia may be developed nation by 2018, says minister
6. Strong ringgit to give Malaysians better purchasing power
7. Low Carbon Green Growth Roadmap for Asia and the Pacifc
8. April CPI up 1.7% on higher food prices
9. MITI confdent services sector to contribute 70% of GDP
by 2015
10. Malaysia among top 3 in economic impact of Internet study
11. Human Development Report 2013
12. Nutrition Research in Malaysia
13. SKMM Handphone Survey 2011
14. World Economic Forum : Engaging Tomorrows Consumer
15. World Economic Forum : Consumer Industry Emerging
Trends and Issues
16. Car prices will be cut in stages
17. Retail and Consumer World by PwC
18. Charging forward PwCs 2012 electric vehicle survey
19. Household Use of the Internet Survey 2011
20. Greater KL To Host 10 Million People, Greener Buildings
In 2020, Says Raja Nong Chik
21. Household Expenditure Trends, Department of Statistics
Malaysia
Source : Social Technologies Analysis.
Relationship description
Upgrading personal transportation is a
primary goal for many as their incomes rise,
whether that means a motorized scooter for
a teen in Vietnam or a minivan for a young
family in Mexico.
Media content drives consumerism and
new consumers seek to acquire the radios,
TVs, satellite dishes, and other devices that
enable media spread.
Cultural ows expose people in emerging
economies to the idea of consumer culture
and, in general, give people new consumer
identities to aspire to.
As consumerism spreads, people gain access
to network devices and services.
Electrication enables many new forms of
consumption, from appliances to media
devices and new kinds of food.
Change in the future
Consumer spending will spur demand for
mobility products and services, from cars
and trac management systems to airplanes.
It will become easier to reach consumers in
the future as more are linked to modern
media streams. But as consumers gain the
ability to personalize their media, messages
will need to be more closely focused on
specic consumer identities.
Developed countries cultural exports will
nd increasing competition from rising
power of developing countries in shaping
global consumerism.
Nodes in the networked world will increase
as consumerism spreads. Developed
countries will connect in new ways, and
much of developing countries will connect
for the rst time.
Electrication will increase the total pool of
consumers, and open new opportunities for
serving bottom-of-the-pyramid consumers.
!"!-C"(!ICABLE
DI&EA&E& (!CD&):
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B,
A:6 &@E68. A:.>
[email protected]
02/2013
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News about the death of a 36 years old friend due to heart attack really shocked me. He is young,
cheerful, and athletic. He has not shown any symptom of illness, either physically, emotionally or
mentally. The news really made me ponder, and scrolling down my Facebook newsfeeds made it even
worst with news so many drastic and tragic fatalities.
One has to accept that death does not consider age or tness level. It is inevitable. And one cannot fully relate health symptoms to death as statistics have shown
that the death cases caused by NCDs are on the rise for all ages all over the world irrespective of the wealth status of the nations. (Figure 1, World Bank)
Figure 1 Projected deaths by major cause and World Bank income group, all ages, 2005
Lower middle
income countries
Note: in this fact sheet, we use low, middle and high-income categories as defined by the wold Bank, Cointries are grouped based on their 2009 gross
national income. See World Health Statistic 2011 for more information.
Neonatal
infections
Lower
respiratory
infections
Diamhoel
diseases
HIV/AIDS Ischaemic
heart
disease
Malaria Stroke
and other
cerebrovascular
disease
Tuber
culosis
Birth
asphyxia
and
birth trauma
Prematuarity
and low
birth
weight
163 of 1000
18 13 13 10 8 8 7 5 5 4
Middle-income
countries
Ischaemic
heart
disease
Stroke
and other
cerebrovascular
disease
Chronic
obstructive
pulmonary
disease
Lower
respiratory
infections
Diamhoel
diseases
HIV/AIDS Road
traffic
accident
Diabetis
mellitus
Tuber
culosis
677 of 1000
93 86 49 36 30 18 17 16 14
Hypertensive
heart disease
15
High-income
countries
Ischaemic
heart
disease
Stroke
and other
cerebrovascular
disease
Trachea,
bronchus,
lung cancers
Alzheimer
and other
dementias
159 of 1000
25 14 9 7
Lower
respiratory
infections
6
Chronic
obstructive
pulmonary
disease
6
Colon and
rectum
cancers
5
Diabetis
mellitus
4
Hypertensive
heart disease
4
Breast
Cancer
3
The leading threat:
Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have been
identied as the leading cause of morbidity and
mortality globally. World Health Organization
(WHO) projected that 64 million people will die
of chronic diseases by 2015. As the common risk
factors to these chronic diseases that cause death
in men and women from all parts of the world, are
unhealthy diets, physical inactivity, tobacco and alcohol
intake, obesity and environmental carcinogens, society
is blaming it on modernization, urbanization and
globalization. (Table 1, World Health Statistics
2008 shows a comparison of leading
cause of deaths in 2004 and the
projected cause of deaths in 2030.)
Source: World health Statistic 2011
The sedentary lifestyles
afforded through
urbanization,
modernization and
globalization are the main
cause of this new so
called lifestyle diseases.
BEW
ARE:
HEART ATTACK
JUST AHEAD
What is NCD?
NCD refers to all type of diseases that usually not
infectious. However, some NCDs such as
cardiovascular (heart) diseases, stroke, cancer,
diabetes, respiratory diseases, and obesity but
can be genetic or hereditary. There are also NCDs
of mental and neurological disorders which have
not been highlighted although cases of
Schizophrenia, Alzheimer and depression are also
rising globally.
NCDs can be prevented by controlling the risk
factors such as practicing healthy diet and regular
physical tness activities, but there are cases of
apparently t people also falling prey to them.
One good example is Yuvraj Singh, the 30 year-old
cricket player whose death has been caused by
a rare form of disease called germ cell seminoma.
Although the risk factor is sedentary lifestyle, NCDs
are not only prevalent amongst the rich. According
to the World Bank, NCDs are going to be the main
cause of death in poor developing nations by 2015.
Data from WHO 2008 shows that 48% of NCD
deaths are linked to cardiovascular illness (17
million deaths); cancer, 21% (7.6 million deaths);
respiratory diseases, 4.2 million; and diabetes, 1.3
million worldwide. 80% of these deaths occured
in low and middle income countries.
Disease or injury Deaths Rank
(%)
Ischaemic heart disease 12.2 1
Carebrovascular disease 9. 2
Lower respiratory infections 7.0 3
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 5.1 4
Diarrhoeal diases 3.6 5
HIV/AIDS 3.5 6
Tuberculosis 2.5 7
Trachea, bronchus, lung cancers 2.3 8
Road Traffic accidents 2.2 9
Prematurity and low birth weight 2.0 10
Neonatal infections andother* 1.9 11
Diabetes mellitus 1.9 12
Malaria 1.7 13
Hypertensive heart disease 1.7 14
Birth asphyria and birth trauma 1.5 15
Self-inflicted injuries 1.4 16
Stomach cancer 1.4 17
Cirrhosis of the liver 1.3 18
Nephritis and nephrosis 1.3 19
Colon and rectum cancers 1.1 20
Violence 1.0 22
Breast cancer 0.9 23
Oesophagus cancer 0.9 24
Alzheimer and other dementias 0.8 25
Rank Deaths Disease or injury
(%)
1 14.2 Ischaemic heart disease
2 12.1 Cerebrovascular disease
3 8.6 Chronic obstructive pulmunary disease
4 3.8 Lower respiratory infections
5 3.6 Road traffic accidents
6 3.4 Trachea, bronchus, lung cancers
7 3.3 Diabetes mellitus
8 2.1 Hypertensive heart disease
9 1.9 Stomach cancer
10 1.8 HIV/AIDS
11 1.6 Nephirtis and nephrosis
12 1.5 Self-inflicted injuries
13 1.4 Liver cancer
14 1.4 Colon and rectum cancers
15 1.3 Oesophagus cancer
16 1.2 Violence
17 1.2 Alzheimer and other dementias
18 1.2 Cirrhosis of the liver
19 1.1 Breast cancer
20 1.0 Tuberculosis
21 1.0 Neonatal infactions and other*
22 0.9 Prematurity and low birth weight
23 0.9 Diarrhoeal diseases
29 0.7 Birth asphyxia and birth trauma
41 0.4 Malaria
Table 1 Leading Causes Of Death, 2004 and 2030 Compared
2004 2030
* Comprises servere a neonatal infections and other, noninfectious causes arising in the prinatal period
Source: World Health Statistics 2008 ( www.who.int/whosis/whatstat/2008/en/index.html)
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Table 2 World Health Statistics 2008,Mortality and burden of disease
Malaysias scenario
Malaysia is also being hit by the rising wave of
premature deaths caused by NCDs. Research
data, including from the Malaysian National
Health & Morbidity Surveys (NHMS), has shown
increases in NCDs cases from 2006 to 2011 (Refer
to graph). Heart diseases are top 5 principal
causes of death of Malaysians aged 15-64 years
old. (Department of Statistics, Malaysia).
Rising obesity cases amongst children in Malaysia
for the past few decades is also alarming. The
prevalence of at risk of overweight is 12.5%
(male) and 11.7% (female) among school children
aged 13-17 years. Childhood obesity usually
occurs in a social landscape that is awash in low-
nutrition, and high-calorie food.
In developing countries, middle-aged adults are
seen to be more vulnerable to chronic diseases
such as heart attacks and strokes. The number of
deaths at earlier ages caused by these diseases is
larger in developing countries compared to in
developed countries. This trend aects these
countries economic and social development, it is
like robbing the nations of its citizens during their
most productive years.
Table 3 Prevalence of NCD Risk Factors in Malaysia (1996-2006)
2005 2005 1990 2000 2006 1990 2000 2006
Liberia 1200 ... 36 64 63 1 8 7 955 485 169 270
Libyan, Arab Jamaiyica 97 ... 5 2 1 ... ... ... 650 411 79 55
Lithuana 11 <10 5 10 7 0 0 0 640 391 161 136
Luxembourg 12 <50 2 1 1 0 0 0 406 177 134 51
Madagascar 510 16 38 40 4 5 0 0 0 837 430 147 112
Malawi 1100 605 9 23 21 6 104 90 835 430 147 112
M$/$:5,$ 62 16 21 16 14 0 2 3 625 274 139 50
Mali 970 81 79 66 63 1 6 7 909 458 166 145
Mata 8 <50 1 1 1 0 0 0 429 214 124 24
Marshall Islands ... ... 68 47 28 . .. ... ... 997 526 125 62
Mauritania 820 <50 62 72 67 0 3 4 984 451 158 138
Mauritius 15 <10 4 3 3 0 0 0 701 434 79 42
Mexico 60 8 10 4 2 0 0 0 603 163 88 58
Micronesia (Federated States of) ... ... 33 19 12 ... ... ... 782 410 93 39
Monaco ... ... 0 0 0 ... ... ... 325 115 120 41
Mongolia 45 <10 52 36 15 0 0 0 988 488 306 96
Maternal
mortality
ratio
d
(per 100 000
live births
Female H
I
V
/
A
I
D
S
e
N
o
n
-
c
o
m
m
u
r
i
c
a
b
l
e
C
a
r
d
i
o
-
v
a
s
c
u
l
a
r
C
a
n
c
e
r
I
n
j
u
r
i
e
s
TB among HIV-negetive
people
f
1990 2000 2006
M$6(41$/ M246$/,6: M$6(41$/ M246$/,6:
TB among HIV-positive
people
g
Cause-specific mortality rate
(per 100 000 population)
Age-standerdized mortality rates
by cause
h, i
(per 100 000 population)
2002
NHM! II MAN! M:NCD!-1 NHM! III
(1996) (2003) (2005) (2006)
Age group > 18 years > 18 years 25-65 years > 18 years
Smoking 24.8% N.A. 25.5% 21.5%
Physically inactive 88.4% 85.6% 60.1% 43.7%
Unhealthy Diet N.A. N.A. 72.8 N.A.
Overweight 16.6% 27.4% 30.9% 29.1%
(BMI > 25 & >30 kg/m
2
)
Obesity (BMI > 25 & >30 kg/m
2
) 4.4% 12.7% 16.3% 14.0%
Hypercholesterolaemia N.A. N.A. 53.5% 20.6%
In 2006, there is an estimated 2.8 0,//,21 Malaysians age 18 years and above are current smokers, 5.5 0,//,21 physically inactive,
3.6 million overweight and 1.7 0,//,21 Malaysians obese.
Source: World Health Statistics 2008
Source: Malaysian National Health & Morbidity Survey (NHMS)
Cabinet Committee for A Health
Promoting Environment
Main TOR: To determine policies that creates a living environment which
supports positive behavioural changes of the population towards healthy
eating and active living
Preventive mechanism
As sedentary lifestyles and new dietary habits
contribute to the increase of chronic diseases and
premature deaths, preventive measures such as
good and healthy diet, regular medical checkup
and health screening, and regular exercise
become necessary. In Malaysia, the government
is playing the leading role in eort to combat
these diseases. The Ministry of Health has
developed a plan known as National Strategic
Plan for NCDs (NSP-NCD). NSP-NCD was
presented and approved by the Cabinet of
Malaysia on 17 December 2010. The NSP-NCD
provides the framework for strengthening NCD
prevention and control programs in Malaysia.
There are seven strategies outlined in NSP-NCD:
1. Prevention and promotion
2. Clinical management
3. Increasing patient compliance
4. Action with NGOs, Professional Bodies & other
stakeholders
5. Monitoring, Research and Surveillance
6. Capacity Building
7. Policy and Regulatory interventions
Malaysia adopted the whole of government and
whole of society approach in implementing the
strategies. The idea is to get cross ministries
involvement, both in creating policies and legislations,
to create a health promoting environment.
Admissions to MOH Hospitals due to Circulatory
Diseases & Cancer: Projections by 2020
Circulatory diseases Maliganant neoplasmas
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
1000,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Projected, Circulatory diseases Projected, Cancer
y= 130995e
0.0208x
R
2
=0.7959
y= 53166e
0.0523x
R
2
=0.0716
1. M)-)12%0 .& H%!+2(
2. M)-)12%0 .& E$3#!2).-
3. M)-)12%0 .& I-&.0,!2).-, C.,,3-)#!2).-,
A021 & C3+230%
4. M)-)12%0 .& R30!+ & R%').-!+ D%4%+./,%-2
5. M)-)12%0 .& A'0)#3+230% !-$ A'0.-"!1%$ I-$31206
6. M)-)12%0 .& .32( & S/.021
7. M)-)12%0 .& H3,!- R%1.30#%
8. M)-)12%0 .& D.,%12)# T0!$%, C.-./%0!2)4%1 !-$
C.-13,%0)1,
9. M)-)12%0 .& H.31)-' !-$ L.#!+ G.4%0-,%-21
10. M)-)12%0 .& W.,%-, F!,)+6 !-$ S.#)!+ A&&!)01
Source: Ministry of Health, Malaysia
Figure 2 Admissions to MOH Hospitals due to Circulatory Diseases & Cancer: Projections by 2020
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Defeated conquest or triumph?
The main focus of NSP-NCD is to improve medical
care and services along with many other intervention
programs, including education, training, awareness
campaigns and counseling of the general public.
Apart from helping to improve and promote healthy
living habits and lifestyles, NSP-NCD also implements
measures to reduce the risk factors of NDCs such as
increasing the price of tobacco and unhealthy food
content, reducing the cost of healthy food and
restricting the marketing of unhealthy foods for
children, protect populations from exposure to
second-hand smoke and numerous other initiatives.
Economic and social loss
The economic impact of NCDs is very high, not
only for the eected individuals and their families,
but the society and nation at large. Globally, in
2010 the direct costs (diagnosis, treatment and
care) and indirect costs (loss of productivity and
income) for cardiovascular diseases alone were
$863 million, and it is projected to increase by 22
percent to $1.05 billion by the year 2030. At the
2011 UN High Level Meeting on NCDs, the World
Economic Forum projected that NCDs could
result in a cumulative output loss of US$ 30
trillion over the next two decades. (gure3)
It is hard to put a price tag on ghting these
diseases. However, the World Economic Forum
has identied NCDs as the second most severe
threat to the global economy after wealth
inequality between the rich and the poor. NCDs
have forced many breadwinners of the families to
quit their jobs, whilst many women are unable to
continue to work as they have to look after the sick.
Where does it lead?
It is hoped that emerging technologies will be
able improve the mortality and mobility rate of
humankind. Continuous innovation and integration
in medical, engineering, information technology
and researches to build a good infrastructure in
combating NCDs are necessary. At the same time,
people need to adhere to the lifestyle changes
within and outside health services.
Dr. Ray Kurzweil, inventor, businessman and
author, forecasted that by 2045 we will be
dominated by nonbiological intelligence (a
merger between biological and machine
intelligence). Soon technology can be used to
reprogram genes away from cancer. However, the
importance of maintaining healthy lifestyle is very
signicant.
References:
1. WHO,Preventing Chronic Diseases a vital investment ,
Geneva 2005
2. World Economic Forum and Harvard School of Public
Health, September 2011
WHO, World Health Statistics 2008
(http://www.who.int/whosis/whostat/EN_WHS08_Full.pdf )
3. The Non-Communicable Diseases (NDC) Division, Ministry
of Health Malaysia
4. The Malaysian Association for the study of obesity (MASO)
5. The report, Public Policy and the Challenge of Chronic Non
-communicable Diseases, is available at http://web.worldbank.org.
6. BMJ Publishing Group Ltd 2007
7. Non Communicable Diseases - A Universal Scourge
http://www.sooperarticles.com/health-ftness-
articles/diseases-articles/non-communicable-diseases-
universal-scourge-1041834.html#ixzz2RqAcn78J
8. Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and
Control of Noncommunicable Diseases (NCD Action Plan).
9. Non-communicable diseases pose rising threat to poor
nations Geneva, John Zarocostas
10. IT growth and global change: A conversation with Ray
Kurzweil : McKinsey Quarterly (January 2011)
11. Hufpost Healthy Living, Katherine Warren, Laura
Macherelli, July 2011
In developing countries,
middle-aged adults are
seen to be more
vulnerable to chronic
diseases such as heart
attacks and strokes
Some NCDs such as
cardiovascular (heart)
diseases, stroke, cancer,
diabetes, respiratory
diseases, and obesity
but can be genetic
or hereditary
45
40
50
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
l
o
s
t

o
u
t
p
u
t
,

t
r
i
l
l
i
o
n
s

(
2
0
1
0

U
S
$
)
High income
Total, world
Upper -middle income
Lower -middle income
Low income
Total, low and middle income countries
Figure 3 Output losses will speed up over time (breakdown of NCD cost by disease, based on EPIC model)
Source: World Economic Forum ( www.who.int/whosis/whatstat/2008/en/index.html)
B,
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[email protected]
FAIL, & H"E:
'HE !E+' DECADE
A
part from afordable price, future home
buyers will defnitely look for added
values in availability of technology devices
and systems in their houses.
According to Googles executive chairman, Eric
Schmidt, in the house of the future people are not lost,
never lonely, never bored. He sees new technology as
oering the possibility of a life of knowledge and
entertainment a potpourri for all of us to choose from.
1
Based on his statement, it could be imagined that in the
next decade home would be the heart of daily routines
without necessarily leaving the house to get things
done as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, instant messaging,
video conferencing, web meetings and many other
collaborations and social media platforms would become
part of peopleseveryday lives around the world.
From the porch to the kitchen and from the hall to the
bedroom of future houses would be equipped with
devices that are not only more ecient than anything
we have now, but also provide greater connectivity
between people and machines, allowing them to talk
seamlessly to each other.
Changes in demographic and family set-ups, shifting of
habits, economic constraints, and aging family
members are among the drivers of change towards
innovation of new technologies. The following diagram
(Diagram 1) listed 10 technology trajectories that are
relevant to the evolution of home and family life over
the next decade (Diagram 1).
2
Home sweet home and it is getting sweeter! Outside forces and introduction of new technologies have
infuenced and changed the dynamics of family and home. Housing developers include modern
technologies and facilities to encourage sales. House owners are getting accustomed to new devices,
systems and services.
Apart from affordable
price, future home buyers
will definitely look for
added values in availability
of technology devices and
systems in their houses.
31
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Diagram 1 10 Key Technology Trajectories infuencing future home
K(: "(&+12/2*: "4$-(&624,(5
Ten technology trajectories were
identifed in this research series:
Adaptive Environments
Cloud Intelligence
Collaboration Economy
Contextual Reality
Cutting the Cable
Information Fusion
Interface Anywhere, Any way
Manufacturing 3.0
Personal Analytics
Socially Networked Stuf
Of the 10, several are particularly
relevant to the evolution of home and
family life over the next decade.
C/27' I16(//,*(1&(
Cloud-based services will
bring advanced decision-
support into homes, oering
personalized, contextualized
assistance as families go
about their lives.
I16(4)$&(
A1:9+(4(, A1: #$:
I
ntuitive interfaces will
become the dominant form
of interaction with IT. People
will use gestures, touch,
verbal commands/ and
other novel input/ output
interfaces to control devices
and home systems
I1)240$6,21 F75,21
Many household systems
will have the ability to make
complex information and
patterns user-friendly and
accessible to residents via
visualization and other easy-
to-grasp presentation forms.
!2&,$//:
N(6924.(' !67))
Ordinary home products,
from HVAC systems to
toasters and toothpaste
tubes, will be networked-
able to sense and
communicate with each
other, family members, and
the broader digital
infrastructure. They will
display alerts, make
suggestions, etc.
C766,1* 6+( &$%/(
Millennials and Generations Z
are coming of age in
a world where networking is in
increasingly ubiquitous. They
will expect their homes to be
platforms that
faciliate their anywhere,
anytime IT-infused lifestyles.
More aware and adaptive home
With the advancement of new materials and
embedded sensors, homes and home systems could
become far more functional, adaptive and responsive.
As exible displays nally reach commercialisation,
new interfaces will make home technology more
ubiquitous touch screen surfaces, voice controlled
appliances, eye-movement tracking or even emotion
analysis that monitors what the user wants would
be available soon. These will make home the centre
of almost all activities work, education and
entertainment. Indirectly, this will inuence and
change the house layouts. There is no necessity for
dedicated home oces or entertainment room, but
instead a more exible and adaptive rooms any
room. Subsequently, people will tend to spent more
time at home and become more reliant on data
insurance to protect families crucial information.
As missing out is not an option, cost of these new
devices will be the main considerations for home
buyers. The economic standings of home owners
play an important role in determining the type of
technology devices and facilities in their homes. Up-
market houses would be equipped with state-of-
the-art technology whilst cheaper houses would be
equipped with cheaper products. As for older
houses/homes, cost of products and installation
would be the determining factor.
A'$36,8( E18,4210(165
Advances in materials will make
homes smart. Everyday objects,
surfaces and coatings will adapt
to changing conditions or
consumer needs-becoming self
cleaning, changing function,
displaying dierent colours, etc.
Source: Innovaro. 2011
$$$$
02/2013
myForesight
32
A62B<;6:?>
New roles of tech- savvy generation
More than 60% of the Malaysian population are
below the age of 34. This group, known as the
digital natives, encompasses two generations:
the Millennials (born in 1979-1998) and the Gen Z
(born from 1999 onwards)
3
. This group; especially
the Gen Z, are more likely to engage with multiple
devices or media simultaneously.
Today, kids as young as pre-schoolers engrossed
with smart phones and tablet computers are a
common sight. As these Gen Z move into their
teens and 20s, they will have substantial demand
for virtual products avatar, virtual currency, and
3D printing, etc. They would also be demanding for
after-market customisations and modications of
the smart systems to match their environment
and needs.
Digital DIY home upgrading is in
our hand
In future, more DIY-enabled devices will be built. Life
at home would be more engaging, convenient and
fun (or otherwise?). Without leaving homes, families
could be connected with the outside world as they
can gain ideas and share information, almost
instantly from anywhere and anything; be it social
networks (e.g. other consumers, virtual agents) or the
smart devices itself.
Consumers would be expecting products
customisations and modications to t their
personal needs and necessities. A power to control
given by products manufacturers would enable
consumers to make more informed decisions on
family issues and home systems. For example, a
smart meter with real-time reading and able to
provide analysis on energy consumption based on
specic characteristic of a home will assist family
members to be more aware on their monthly
energy consumption and can work together to
practice more energy ecient routines.
Future houses would
be equipped with devices
that provide greater
connectivity between
people and machines,
allowing them to talk
seamlessly to each other.
Diagram 1 User age distribution on Facebook in Malaysia
Conclusion
By 2020, most people would be living in more
functional and adaptive homes, with personally
customised and modied home systems, and better
communication methods and interactions between
family members. However, while technologies
provide new capabilities and experiences, there are
also various uncertainties and questions that need
to be seriously considered privacy, nancial constrain
and the essential human values.
While in the local context, as Malaysia aims to be a
develop nation by 2020 with USD15,000 income per
capita, are we ready for the change? How fast will we
react to introduction of more advanced tools? How
much are we willing to pay? How would these factors
eect the investment and advancement of home
technologies? After all, home is where the heart is.
Tech usage reshaping family dynamics
Communication; either directly or indirectly, is vital
in human development. It is a natural process for
humans to access the outside world on a daily basis.
Constant connectivity expands the relationship
between parents and children, brothers and sisters,
nieces, in laws etc.
As relationships increasingly go digital, the impacts are
being translated into transformative future technology.
Evolution of digital entertainment; for example, may
contribute to tighten up family bonding through
interesting activities and games played together.
However, technologies may also create personal
technology bubbleswhere family members cocoon
themselves at home without communicating with
one another, but privately communicate with others
at dierent places (alone together is the term used
by the MIT). Everyone is in their own world but yet
they all globally connected.
Socialbakers statistic on Malaysia Facebook users
shows that 72% users are aged between 18 to 34.
(And yes, they are the Millennial and Gen Z.) Another
statistic by Google, Ipsos and the Mobile Marketing
Association (MMA) shows that 97% are using smart
phones at home, and 44% are using smart phone
online multiple times per day!
USER AGE DISTRIBUTION
ON FACEBOOK IN MALAYSIA
3
,2
7
9
,4
0
1
9
9
3
,7
5
8
2
9
8
,1
2
7
9
9
,3
7
5
0
6
9
5
,6
3
0
6
9
5
,6
3
0
3
,7
7
6
,2
8
0
13-15
16-17
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Source: www.socialbakers.com
02/2013
myForesight
33
A62B<;6:?>
References
1. Nexpected! Technology behind the future home
2. INNOVARO, 2011
3. INNOVARO, 2011
B
o
o
k

C
l
u
b
Scenario planning is the principles, methods, and techniques for looking forward into the future and trying to anticipate
and inuence what is to come next. This book provides students and line managers in organizations with the means
to create better scenarios and to use them to create winning business strategies. The purpose is to shed new light on
scenarios and scenario-like thinking in organizations for managers at every level within a company. The book covers
scenarios such as: economic outlooks; political environments; acquisitions; downsizing, and more.
!64$6(*,& F24(5,*+6:
A N(9 L22.
$6 !&(1$4,25
ISBN-10: 0230611729
ISBN-13: 978-0230611726
Author: Alfred Marcus
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
02/2013
myForesight
34
NE# MEGA
"END!
ISBN 10: 1137008083
ISBN 13: 9781137008084
Author : Sarwant Singh
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
New Mega Trends predicts the ten
trends that will make the greatest
impact to business and our lives - in
the future and ofers practical advice on
how to proft from them.
Based upon extensive research by one of the
world's largest market research companies and
tested with some of the largest Fortune 100
companies, New Mega Trends identies the ten
most important global trends that will redene
our world by 2020:
E-mobility
Urbanization
Health, wellness and well-being
Social trends
New battlefelds
Virtual connected world
Innovating to zero
Value for money business models
Smart is the new Green
From planes to trains
Looking at each of these trends in depth, Singh
not only identies and evaluates the emerging
trends, but also translates these into opportunities
for everyday business and personal life.
New Mega Trends oers a vivid picture of how
our working and personal lives will be changed
in the years to come, and with an understanding
of immediate opportunities and threats to
everyday business and personal life.
Foresight has emerged as a key instrument for the development
and implementation of research and innovation policy. The main
focus of activity has been at the national level. Governments
have sought to set priorities, to build networks between science
and industry and, in some cases, to change their research system
and administrative culture. Foresight has been used as a set of
technical tools, or as a way to encourage more structured debate
with wider participation leading to the shared understanding of
long-term issues. In this comprehensive and critical Handbook,
cross-cutting analytical chapters explore the emergence and
positioning of foresight, common approaches and methods,
organisational issues, and the scope for policy transfer and
evaluation. Leading experts and practitioners contribute
chapters analysing experiences in France, Germany, the United
Kingdom, the USA, Japan, China, Latin America, small European
nations, Nordic countries and selected developing countries. The
book concludes with consideration of the future of foresight
itself. This fascinating Handbook will appeal equally to those
wishing to apply foresight to their policy or strategy-making
activities, and to those studying the theory and practice of
foresight. The Handbook will be vital reading for policymakers
considering, commissioning, or using foresight, companies eager
to use public foresight, as well as academics and researchers in
foresight, futures and STI policy and management communities.
"+( H$1'%22. 2)
"(&+12/2*:
F24(5,*+6
ISBN : 1848448104, 9781848448100
Authors : Luke Georghiou, Ian Miles,
Rafael Popper
Publisher: Edward Elgar Pub, 2009
B
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k

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b
YOUTH-
CONSUMERISM
What are the type of activities
that are most popular amongst youth?
Source from : Youth Survey, Social Environment, Lifestyles And Values, GOETHE Institute
Youth are spending more of their leisure times on entertainment rather than
getting involve in healthy activities
Five activities that are most liked by young Malaysians
GENERATION VETERAN
YEAR OF BIRTH
THE YOUTH AS
DEFINED BY UNITED
NATIONS ( Age 15-24)
X Y Z
2
0
0
9
1
9
9
4
1
9
8
9
1
9
6
4
1
9
6
4
ALSO KNOWN AS THE MILLENNIAL
GENERATION OR MILLENNIALS), GENERATION
NEXT, NEXT GENERATION, ECHO BOOMERS
lGEN- HAVE NEVER
KNOWN A WORLD
WITHOUT INTERNET
?
Watching TV
Listening Music
Surfing the internet
Reading magazines or newspapers
Taking a walk
Activities with family members
Exercising
Activities
Percentage (%)
0 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
90% 100%
75.0
61.7
52.3
47.0
39.9
36.1
32.3
Digitalize society
Technologically Adept
Enterprising
Environmentalist
Environmentalist
Youths are the leaders, movers and shakers of the future.
They should be the key indicator to the state of future
nation. Their characteristic and behavior will determine
tomorrows future - will there be shifts in economy,
political, social, culture and family value
Youth characteristics:
ALPHA
02/2013
myForesight
36
Virtual shopping:
the convenient retail therapy
Source : PayPal on the survey PayPal Skip the Queues Survey 2012
Source : www.ourmobileplanet.com
B
r
o
w
s
e
d

i
n
t
e
r
n
e
t
O
n
l
i
n
e

s
h
o
p
p
i
n
g
/
O
n
l
i
n
e

B
a
n
k
i
n
g
J
o
b

s
e
a
r
c
h
P
r
o
d
u
c
t

S
e
a
r
c
h
G
e
n
e
r
a
l

S
e
a
r
c
h
R
e
a
d

N
e
w
s
79
69
30
59
65
54
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
How Malaysians use
their smartphones
0 10% 20% 30% 40%
trouble finding a parking lot
the long queues
at checkout counters
the battle with crowds
Willingness to wait 5-10 minutes in
line at a retail store.
Problems
Percentage (%)
50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
67
65
50
40
Digitized society towards
knowledge, creative &
innovative lifestyles
The top pet peeves for shopping in malls:
Surfing Internet is one of the most popular activities among the youth. 2012 was the
year for mobile commerce as more Malaysians turned to their mobile devices to do
their shopping. Malaysian shoppers used online and mobile shopping to get back
36 hours of their precious time to get involve in other activities, including spending time
with family and friends
YOUTH-
CONSUMERISM
What are the type of activities
that are most popular amongst youth?
Source from : Youth Survey, Social Environment, Lifestyles And Values, GOETHE Institute
Youth are spending more of their leisure times on entertainment rather than
getting involve in healthy activities
Five activities that are most liked by young Malaysians
GENERATION VETERAN
YEAR OF BIRTH
THE YOUTH AS
DEFINED BY UNITED
NATIONS ( Age 15-24)
X Y Z
2
0
0
9
1
9
9
4
1
9
8
9
1
9
6
4
1
9
6
4
ALSO KNOWN AS THE MILLENNIAL
GENERATION OR MILLENNIALS), GENERATION
NEXT, NEXT GENERATION, ECHO BOOMERS
lGEN- HAVE NEVER
KNOWN A WORLD
WITHOUT INTERNET
?
Watching TV
Listening Music
Surfing the internet
Reading magazines or newspapers
Taking a walk
Activities with family members
Exercising
Activities
Percentage (%)
0 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
90% 100%
75.0
61.7
52.3
47.0
39.9
36.1
32.3
Digitalize society
Technologically Adept
Enterprising
Environmentalist
Environmentalist
Youths are the leaders, movers and shakers of the future.
They should be the key indicator to the state of future
nation. Their characteristic and behavior will determine
tomorrows future - will there be shifts in economy,
political, social, culture and family value
Youth characteristics:
ALPHA
02/2013
myForesight
37
A survey was conducted among parents that give gadgets to their children in the United Kingdom.
The Daily Mail reported some of the issues raised by the survey participants as:
Smart phones and tablets have become parts of everyones live. Even babies are not spared.
Questions posed by Babies.co.uk in a survey showed:
Issues
regret giving their children games
consoles, mobile phones and
computers
yearn to take the gadgets back
annoyed about the amount of time
their children spend in front of a
computer or watching TV instead of
enjoying traditional activities
try to limit the time youngsters
spend using devices or watching
TV each day

kids have their own TV in bedrooms
blame the gadgets for reducing
the amount of quality time
the family has together
admit that they are giving the gadget
to their children for an easy life
Percentage (%)
33.3
34.0
67.0
73.0
40.0
66.7
43.0
Baby
& Gadget
Yes
Do you let your baby play
with your tablet/smart phone?
No
Yes
No
Maybe
Do you think letting your baby use
a smart phone/tablet helps them learn?
45%
55%
15%
50%
35%
Today, kids are more exposed to technology and various gadgets
become past of their everyday lives. Technology has become the way of
life and young parents seems to fall prey to this. Reports fromDaily Mail,
UK and Babies.co.uk reveals the upcoming trend in bringing up children
02/2013
myForesight
38
*Results polled from over 1000 respondents.
Conclusion on Baby & Gadget:
How about the future of the next generation will be as
the babies are more exposed to the technologies nowadays?
Are they will be more expert?
And how the nation will develop as technologies
will become more advance among the young generation?
Yes
No
Yes
No
Once a week
Twice a week
Under 1 hour a day
Under 2 hours a day
Under 3 hours a day
More hours a day
Maybe
Yes
No
Does letting your baby play
with a smart phone/ tablet too
much disconnect them from
their relationship with you?
When a baby plays on a
smart phone/tablet does it
negatively impact his real world
social and communication skills?
How often do your baby play your smart phone/
tablet (if you allow it)?
Does the youth of today spend
too much time on smart devices?
18%
31%
51%
52%
48%
14%
23%
12%
30%
9%
6%
Easier to make children stay in one place
Stimulate sense and imagination
Promote listening ability, learning of sounds and
speaking ability
Develops innovative thinking, investigative skills,
strategic thinking
Increases childrens computer literacy
Develops good eye, hand and mental coordination
Encourages quick mathematical and engineering skills
Unaided utilization of gadgets
Tends to keep children out of touch of reality
Affects concentration and focus in school works
Advantages Disadvantages
Positive and negative impacts of giving electronic devices and gadgets to children
Source: Babies.co.uk
19%
81%
02/2013
myForesight
39
40
02/2013
myForesight
41
02/2013
myForesight
60s RISKS
Women Men
-#1 killer of women over 60.
HEART DISEASE
75% Of strokes occur after 65.
STROKE
Most colorectal cancer in
women occurs after 60.
COLORECTALCANCER
1 in 15 men ages 60-69 will
develop prostate cancer.
PROSTATECANCER
20% of colon cancer diagnosed
between ages 60-64.
75% of strokes occur after age 65.
24% of colon cancers diagnosed
between ages 65-70.
COLONCANCER
STROKE
1 in 2 women over 60
Suffer a fracture due to
Osteoporosis.
OSTEOPOROSIS
The following should
be done every 3 years:
All of the following should be done annually:
Colorectal screening.
Cholesterol testing Coronary screening Prostate exam
T
E
S
T
S
Whether in your 20s or well into your 70s, prevention is the key to
sustaining health and vitality. Follow this simple guide to mantain
good health and peace if mind from youth well into your golden years.
Prevent Your Way to Healthy
6
0
s
The risk of Type 2 diabetes decreases for both men
and woman after 60, while the risk for heart
disease and many cancers increase sharply.
SOURCES: http://www.cancer.gov, http://www.labelstoneline.org,
http://wwwcmed.umichedu, http://www.diabetes.org, http://women.webmd.com,
http://www.melanomafoundation, http://rex.nicnih.gov
T
E
S
T
S
Bone density test every
2-3 years
Colorectal screening
every 3 years
Colonoscopy screening
every 5 years.
The following should be
continued annually:
Mammogram
Pelvic exam
Pap and smear at
physicians disreation
Coronary screening.
42
02/2013
myForesight
As a strategic policymaker or stakeholder, you can help map out
a desired future for Malaysia
This is an invitation by myForesight

to build a collective future.

Do you find this magazine thought-provoking? Do you think we
could have done better? Perhaps you would like us to cover
a specific angle in the study of Foresight.
Or maybe, you would like to contribute articles to myForesight

magazine? Send your feedback and articles to foresightinternal@

might.org.my Website: www.myforesight.my
We look foward to hearing from you.
9DF;=2>645?

team
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