Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 272 views

    Scenario Planning

    Uploaded by

    Rushdi Rahim
    Scenario planning is a disciplined method for imaging possible futures in which decisions may be played out. It is a part of strategic planning which relates to the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future. It is amongst the tools and methods utilized by myForesight; Malaysia foresight initiatives.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Scenario Planning

    Uploaded by

    Rushdi Rahim
    272 views27 pages
    Scenario planning is a disciplined method for imaging possible futures in which decisions may be played out. It is a part of strategic planning which relates to the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future. It is amongst the tools and methods utilized by myForesight; Malaysia foresight initiatives.

    Copyright

    © Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Scenario planning is a disciplined method for imaging possible futures in which decisions may be played out. It is a part of strategic planning which relates to the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future. It is amongst the tools and methods utilized by myForesight; Malaysia foresight initiatives.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    272 views27 pages

    Scenario Planning

    Uploaded by

    Rushdi Rahim
    Scenario planning is a disciplined method for imaging possible futures in which decisions may be played out. It is a part of strategic planning which relates to the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future. It is amongst the tools and methods utilized by myForesight; Malaysia foresight initiatives.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 27

    2010. Private & Confidential 2





    2010. Private & Confidential 3


    2010. Private & Confidential 4

    2010. Private & Confidential 5


    2010. Private & Confidential 6
    2010. Private & Confidential 7
    Scenario as a effective communication tool
    Example: Future of Health care

    Explanation by trends Explanation by scenario

    • The cost is increasing. 2013: America, fiscally burdened by the cost of


    • The Baby Boomers will be the largest its massive retired population, begins to
    group of people over 65 in American outsource some health care duties to doctors in
    history. India. “Telemedical” remote diagnostic machines,
    • The Indian middle class is growing. located in American clinics, take readings to
    • Outsourcing overseas is increasing as a document a patient’s symptoms and vital signs.
    strategy to keep costs low. Much of the mundane work of the primary care
    • Diagnostic equipment is falling in price physician is outsourced using the Internet,
    and is increasingly connected to the although tough cases are still referred to
    Internet. American specialists. Thousands of American
    health care jobs are lost, but costs are finally
    being cut and health care outcomes are at least
    as good as before.

    (Source: FUTURE Inc., Eric Garland)


    2010. Private & Confidential 8
    2010. Private & Confidential 9
    Advantages of Scenario

    • Scenario writing is a planning instrument.


    • It is also an effective learning tool.
    – Thinking in scenarios helps us understand the logic of
    developments, clarify driving forces, key factors, key players and
    our potential to exert an influence.
    • It proceeds more from the gut than from the computer. Although it
    may incorporate the results of quantitative models.
    • It shows a slight accuracy comparing with other models of forecasting.
    Specially when uncertainty is high.

    2010. Private & Confidential 10


    Forecasting & Uncertainty

    Forecasting Uncertainty

    Delphi Scenario

    Source: Ringland, Grill, Scenario planning: Managing for the future

    2010. Private & Confidential 11


    2010. Private & Confidential 12
    2010. Private & Confidential 13

    2010. Private & Confidential 14




    2010. Private & Confidential 15


    2010. Private & Confidential 16
    2010. Private & Confidential 17
    2010. Private & Confidential 18

    2010. Private & Confidential 19


    2010. Private & Confidential 20
    2010. Private & Confidential 21
    2010. Private & Confidential 22

    You might also like