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    Wyckoff Method Project

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    BruceLaiWei
    This document summarizes a student's term project analyzing the stock trend of Ford Motor Company using the Wyckoff Method. The analysis first examines trends in the overall market and automobile industry, finding signals of a reversal from an uptrend to downtrend. Ford is then analyzed individually, with supply and demand indicators and the 9 point selling test suggesting the stock trend is downward. A short sell trading strategy is recommended based on the analysis. The project also briefly examines trends in General Motors stock, finding it to be in a distribution phase.

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    Wyckoff Method Project

    Uploaded by

    BruceLaiWei
    175 views9 pages
    This document summarizes a student's term project analyzing the stock trend of Ford Motor Company using the Wyckoff Method. The analysis first examines trends in the overall market and automobile industry, finding signals of a reversal from an uptrend to downtrend. Ford is then analyzed individually, with supply and demand indicators and the 9 point selling test suggesting the stock trend is downward. A short sell trading strategy is recommended based on the analysis. The project also briefly examines trends in General Motors stock, finding it to be in a distribution phase.

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    This document summarizes a student's term project analyzing the stock trend of Ford Motor Company using the Wyckoff Method. The analysis first examines trends in the overall market and automobile industry, finding signals of a reversal from an uptrend to downtrend. Ford is then analyzed individually, with supply and demand indicators and the 9 point selling test suggesting the stock trend is downward. A short sell trading strategy is recommended based on the analysis. The project also briefly examines trends in General Motors stock, finding it to be in a distribution phase.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    175 views9 pages

    Wyckoff Method Project

    Uploaded by

    BruceLaiWei
    This document summarizes a student's term project analyzing the stock trend of Ford Motor Company using the Wyckoff Method. The analysis first examines trends in the overall market and automobile industry, finding signals of a reversal from an uptrend to downtrend. Ford is then analyzed individually, with supply and demand indicators and the 9 point selling test suggesting the stock trend is downward. A short sell trading strategy is recommended based on the analysis. The project also briefly examines trends in General Motors stock, finding it to be in a distribution phase.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 9

    Fin 354 term project

    Course: Fin 354 Wyckoff Method


    Instructor: Hank Pruden
    Student: Lai Wei. 0569972





    Abstract:
    Under Wyckoff Method, we applied stock sentiment and momentum analysis to predict
    the trend of Ford Company (Symbol: F), as well as trading statics. At first, the article
    studies the performance of the 4 main market indices and the industry index where Ford
    belongs to. After the analysis of primary trend, under supply and demand law, the
    individual stock trend will be analyzed by volume and price pattern. 9 buying or selling
    test then will be used to help trader to build profit positions or exit strategy. At last, a
    short sell trading static will be recommended as to Ford Company.










    Part 1: Market Trend Analysis.
    Market indices: S&P 500, Nasdaq, NYSE, DJIA, and DJUSAU






    According the trend line and OBV indictor, the 4 main market indices, including U.S. automobile
    industry index, have shown a signal of reversal in trend from previous uptrend to present
    downtrend.
    Part 2. Individual stock analysis.Ford company















    Chart 1-1.

    a. Supply and demand analysis:
    The overwhelming demand situation is diminishing and is turning to supply side, so the
    trend of this stock is down. One reason is that the volume has shrink from Jan 2014 to Oct 2014,
    compared with the previous period of May-Dec in 2013. This shrink in volume is caused by the
    weak demand. Another signal for this downtrend is the low price breakthrough combined with
    high volume bar in Oct, as circled in the chart above. Compared with another big volume bar in
    Dec.2013 as circled, this time, in Oct 2014, even the volume bar is smaller, however at the
    same, the spread of the price is more significant to create a lower low out of the TR (Trading
    range). This demonstrates that, in Oct 2014, the demand is weaker than that in Dec. 2013.
    b. 9 selling point test.
    1. Upside price objective accomplished ?---No



















    There are 7 columns.
    Target price=7*3*1+9=30$ / share.
    It doesnt accomplish the price objective.





    2. Activity bearish.---Yes

    As the blue curves show, the volume decrease on rallies and increases on reactions.

    3. Preliminary supply, buying climax.---Yes.
    As chart 1-1 labels.

    4. Average or stock weaker than market.Yes.

    Relative strength comparison:




    5. Upward stride broken.---Yes.
    As chart 1-1 labels.
    6 & 7.
    Lower high, lower low ? ---Not clear, for weekly chart---- Yes, for daily chart.
    8. Crown forming-----Yes.
    9. Estimated profit is at least 3 times the indicated risk for stop-order placementYes.

    Target price=17.45-3*3*1= 8.45$
    The price of LSPY is 16.67$
    (8.45-16.67) : (17.45-16.67)=10:1 is greater than 3:1






    Part 3: Individual stocks: General Motor (GM)








    a. Supply and demand:
    The big volume bars have showed the change of investor behavior. In addition, after the BC, the
    following huge volume told us the composite man has begun to sell out the stock.
    b. 9 selling test:
    From the whole life cycle we can see, GM is experiencing a distribution phase.



    1. Price objective. 18.5+5*3*1=33.5$---------Yes.
    2,3 test-----Yes, see labeling.
    4. test------Yes:

    5. test---No. See labeling.
    6. No
    7. No.
    8. Yes.
    9. Targe price=41-6*3*1=23$, (33.5-23):(41-33.5)=1.4, smaller than 3:1. ----No.
    Part 4. Individual stock #3--














    Price objective: 58+16*3*1=106$
    (106-76):(76-58)=1.6:1, smaller than 3:1

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