Oilseeds Daily 23012015
Oilseeds Daily 23012015
Oilseeds Daily 23012015
FORPRIVATECIRCULATIONONLY
HIGHLIGHTS
EdibleoilcorrectedthemostwhileMustardseedsaw
theleastcorrection
TheRSOCPOspreadinlasttradingsessionwasatRs
217 compared to 218. The spread has been on a
risingtrendandhaspassedtheprevioushigh.
January23,2015
FUTURESPRICEMOVEMENT
22Jan15
EDIBLEOILCOMPLEX
Low
Close
%Chg
Vol(MT)
OI
OI
3359
3373
3388
1.00%
1.20%
1.37%
65140
32390
9900
76750
38690
11880
10780
2750
4120
625
600.05
583.55
1.87%
2.14%
0.85%
54175
21410
9950
69145
59265
53015
340
2540
510
3431
3464
3520
0.41%
0.46%
0.06%
35720
3150
640
38920
5660
1820
2370
260
10
438.4
444.5
448.7
1.64%
1.64%
1.79%
667
2196
602
1082
3330
1825
215
224
169
Contract
Open
High
NCDEXSOYBEANSRs./Qtl
Feb15
3395
3416
3346
Apr15
3414
3431
3352
Jun15
3433
3452
3360
NCDEXREFINEDSOYOILRs./10kg
Feb15
637
637.8
624.1
Apr15
613
613.85 598.6
Jun15
588
588
579.4
NCDEXMUSTARDSEEDRs./Qtl
Apr15
3447
3480
3414
May15
3477
3514
3451
Jun15
3524
3544
3500
MCXCRUDEPALMOILRs./10kg
Jan15
445.7
445.7
436.1
Feb15
452
452
443
Mar15
457
457
447.5
Note:MCX&ACEOIinLots
INTERNATIONAL
Contract
Open
High
Low
Close
Change
CBOTSOYBEANUSCents/Bushel
Mar15
984.25
992.5
975
976.8
6.75
May15
990
998.5 981.25
983.0
6.5
CBOTSOYMEALUS$/shortton
Mar15
330.8
335.8
327.7
330.1
0.4
May15
323.4
327.3
320.7
322.6
0.1
CBOTSOYBEANOILUSCents/Pound
Sep16
32.39
32.58
31.9
31.97
0.44
Oct16
32.57
32.74
32.08
32.16
0.42
WCECANOLACanadian$/ton
Mar16
469.1
469.1
469.1
469.1
5
May16
458
463.4
457.6
462.2
3.4
BURSAMALAYSIAPALMMYR/ton
Apr15
2278
2282
2242
2246
27
%chg
0.69%
0.66%
0.12%
0.03%
1.36%
1.29%
1.08%
0.74%
1.16
RSO CPOSpotSpread
350
RSO CPOSpotSpread
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
10Nov10 10May11 10Nov11 10May12 10Nov12 10May13 10Nov13 10May14 10Nov14
29 March 2012
MARKETANALYSIS
OUTLOOK
SoybeanDomesticsoybeanfuturesareexpectedto
trade weak tracking sell off on CBOT. U.S. soybean
futures fell Thursday on expectations of large South
American soy harvests that should boost global
inventories, coupled with strength in the U.S. dollar.
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures declined in
earlytradesandaretradinglowerby0.1%.InIndian
market, Soy complex witnessed weak tone in prices
onthedomesticspotmarketamidlowdemandand
slowarrivals.
Refined Soybean Oil RSO future during the session
isexpectedtotradeweak.Indiarefinedsoyoilprices
quotedlowerinspotmarketsacrossthecountrydue
tolowdemand.Thecommodityisalsosufferingfrom
steadybuildingupofsupplypressure.Soyoilfutures
dropped pressured by technical selling and lower
soybean. CBOT Soy oil is trading lower by 0.3% in
earlytrades.
weighonCPO.Malaysianpalmoilfuturesdroppedto
lowest level in three weeks on Thursday as the
their
ringgit
ticked up and crude oil prices continued to
tradinglowerby0.8%inearlytrades.
RapeseedMustardseedpricesareexpectedtotrade
firm for the new crop contract. Mustard seed and
Expeller prices have turned softer on the domestic
spot markets due to slower demand. Soft tone in
competing markets has also dented the prospect.
Meanwhile, rains in northern region of the country,
helped restrict price fall. Markets continue to eye
cropgrowthprogresswhichwilldeterminethefuture
availability of the commodity. Focus will also be on
mustard oil demand in the wake of changing
weather.NCDEXAprilcontractisgettingsupportnear
Rs.34103400 while resistance is seen near Rs.3470
3480.
Centre
Spot
SOYBEANSRs./Qtl
Indore
3359
Kota
3270
Nagpur
3350
REFINEDSOYOILRs./10kg
Indore
656
Mumbai
641
Nagpur
661
SOYMEALRs./ton
Indore
28700
MUSTARDSEEDRs./Qtl
Alwar
4125
Jaipur
4038
Source:NCDEX&ACE
Change
CRUSHMARGIN&OILMEALSHARE
Rape/MustardComplex
GrossCrush(Rs.)
4890
Oilshare
75.51%
Mealshare
24.49%
SoybeanComplex
GrossCrush(Rs.)
370.00
Oilshare
30.9%
Mealshare
69.1%
Source:SEA,KCSL
23
19
0
7
4
12
0
0
8
Currency
USD/INR
Type
Spot
Close
61.59
%Chg
0.06
C&F RateMumbai
876
540
667
411
Oil(Crude)
Imp Base
Tariff
972
912
Soyoil$/ton
Rs./10kg
PalmOil$/ton
Rs./10kg
Source:SEA,KCSL
Note:Domesticprice:SoyoilExIndore
PalmOilExKandla
Landed
Price
901
555
690
425
Domestic
Price
570
440
WAREHOUSESTOCKSinMT(Ason21January2014)
Centers
TOTAL
TOTAL
NCDEX
ACE
Demat
InProcess
Demat
InProcess
SOYBEAN
10329
0
0
0
MUSTARDSEED
9577
0
0
0
COMMODITY
CONTRACT
SOYBEAN
RSO
MUSTARDSEED
CPO
February
February
April
February
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE
3300
618
3400
440
3420
630
3480
450
INTRADAY
TREND
Bearish
Bearish
Bullish
Bearish
29 March 2012
Analysis:Pricesofsunfloweroilandsunflowerseedhavesoftenedalittleoverthelasttwomonthsunderpressurefromthe
plummeting
crude oil price and a general oilseed glut. However, the decline for sun oil has been modest compared to other
vegetableoils.Thisispartlyduetoexpectationsoflowerglobalsuppliesthisyear,andstrongdemandfromplaceslikeIndia.But
increasing stockpiles
of vegetable oils in India and China could mean demand from these destinations starts to drop off, and
thereisalsothequestionofhowlongvegetableoilpricescanwithstandthedownwardpressurefromcrudeoil,withwhichthey
areusuallycloselyaligned.
hectaresto5.5mlnha.TheUSDAforecastthecountryssunseedproductiontodropby14%comparedwith2013/14to10mln
tonnes,whilesunfloweroiloutputwaspeggedtodropby4%to4.26mlntonnes.Exportsofsunfloweroilarealsopeggedtofall
by4%to3.7mlntonnes.Ukrainessunoilexportsduringthefirstfourmonthsoftheseason(JulythroughOctober2014)roseby
nearly40%comparedwiththepreviousyearto1.3mlntonnes.
EU:TheEUistheonlymajorproducerforwhichtheUSDAforecastariseinsunflowerseedproductionthisseason,upby2%to
9.04mlntonnes.Asaresult,importsbytheblocarepeggedtofallby22%forsunseedand18%forsunoil.
productionalsoexpectedtoriseby12%to1.06mlntonnes.However,mostofthatincreasewillbeabsorbedbyhigherdomestic
consumption,withseedexportsprojectedtoremainlevelwith2013/14butoilexportsareforecasttogrowby7%to375,000
tonnes.HarvestingofthenewcropstartedearlierthismonthinthenorthernregionsofChacoandSantaFe,butduetorainfall
farmerswereonlyabletogetaround5%ofthecropoffthefieldsbyJanuary8,AldebaranCommoditiessaidinareport.Thereis
notmuchseedleftoftheoldcrop,andproducersaretryingtosellanyremainingstocksbeforethenewcroparrives,withprices
stablefornow,itadded.
DEMAND:
India: Sunflower oil imports by India continued to run at a strong pace during the last two months of 2014, with
194,032tonnesbookedinNovemberand151,626tonnesinDecember.Thiswas52%morethanduringthesametwomonthsa
yearearlier,accordingtotheSolventExtractorsAssociationofIndia.Pricesforsunfloweroilfellby2%inDecembertoUSD879
pertonne(CIFIndianport),narrowingthedifferentialbetweensunoilandsoybeanoiltoUSD37pertonne.Soybeanoil,which
hastraditionallybeenmoreexpensivethansunfloweroil,hasbeentradingatadiscounttosunoilsinceOctoberduetostrong
demandandtightsuppliesforsunoil.Localsourcessaidthatsunoilretailpriceshaverisenbyaround8%sincethebeginningof
thecurrentoilyearonNovember1,whichcouldleadconsumerstoswitchtothenowcheapersoyoilandrestrictimportsover
thecomingmonths.Stockpilesofcookingoilshadgrownto38dayslocaldemand,comparedwithnormallevelsofaround25
days.Importsshouldslowdownbecauseofthesestockpiles.
China:InNovember,Chinaimported1,253tonnesofsunflowerseedfromKazakhstan,athreemonthhigh.However,importsof
sunflower oil only came to 4,419 tonnes, a fraction of the amounts seen earlier last year in the summer. For the year to
November2014,sunoilimportsroseby20%yearonyeartoaround430,000tonnes.
EU:AlthoughEUsunseedproductionisforecasttobemarginallyhigherin2014/15,thebloccouldstillseeincreaseddemand
forsunoilimportsduetoanexpectedslumpinglobaloliveoilproduction.Traditionalcookingoilconsumersmightbeforcedto
switchtosunoilasoliveoilproductionisforecasttowitnessadropof27%thisseasonduetobadweatherandpestdamagein
theworldsmainproducers,SpainandItaly.
PRICE OUTLOOK: Competition among vegetable oils is likely to remain tough in the near term due to large global oilseed
supplies, especially soy. Furthermore, vegetable oil prices are almost certain to follow crude oil down eventually, at least to
someextent.However,ontheupside,tightersuppliesofsunflowerseedandsunoilthisseason,alongwithitspopularityasa
cookingoil,shouldgiveitacompetitiveedgeandensurethatpricesremainrelativelystablefornearfuture.
Oil & Oilseeds Daily
29 March 2012
Warehousestocks:MustardseedwarehousestocksatNCDEXis9577MTcomparedto11137MTwith0MTinprocess.Thebasis
gainedtoRs607comparedtoRs585inprevioussession.
FUTURESMARKETANALYSIS
SOYBEAN
FORWARDCURVE
3650
3600
3550
3500
3450
3400
3350
3300
Spot
Feb15
Apr15
Jun15
The Forward
curve has moved on the left. The spread January
FebruaryclosedatRs14comparedto21.is59comparedto92
inlastweek.FEDstockof17000MTpluswillkeeptheJancontract
pressure. We expect the spread to widen till Rs 90. We
under
nowrecommendtobookprofit.
REFINEDSOYOIL
FORWARDCURVE
backwardation
in last session. The basis has corrected in last
JanuaryFebruaryclosedatRs24.95comparedto23.70.
Monday
Tuesday
Monday
Wednesday
Tuesday
Thursday
Wednesday
Thursday
SOYBEAN SPREAD(FEBAPR)
Soybean:FebruaryApril
200
150
100
50
0
50
100
150
Spread
Spot
20Feb
20Apr
20Feb
0
20Apr
14
14
19Jun
29
29
15
Soyoil:FebruaryApril
50
700
690
40
680
670
30
660
650
20
640
630
10
620
610
600
590
580
570
Spot
Feb15
Apr15
0
10
20
1Nov 8Nov 15Nov 22Nov 29Nov 6Dec 13Dec 20Dec 27Dec 3Jan
Jun15
2015
Spread
Spot
Feb15
Apr15
2014
20Feb 20Apr
31.00
55.95
24.95
2013
2012
19Jun
72.45
41.45
16.50
2011
2010
29 March 2012
FUTURESMARKETANALYSIS(Continued.)
MUSTARDSEED
FORWARDCURVE
4100
3950
3800
3650
3500
3350
3200
Spot
Apr15
May15
Jun15
compared to 556
in previous session. We recommend selling
Jan and buying April at the spread of Rs 790810. We expect
thespreadtonarrowtillRs575550withatrailingstoplossof
SPOT:MUSTARDSeedSOYBEAN
Mustard SoybeanSpotSpread
1500
1200
900
600
300
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
and corrected. In
last trading session the spread closed at Rs
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Mustardspread:AprilMay
0
Thursday
20
40
60
80
100
10Nov
20Dec
09Jan
29Jan
2011
Spread
Spot
20Apr
20May
19Jun
20Apr
607
679comparedto648.stradingatRs585comparedtoRs432
inprevioussession.
30Nov
20May
574
33
19Jun
518
89
56
18Feb
2012
10Mar
2013
20Jul
475
132
99
43
30Mar
2014
19Apr
2015
29 March 2012
Soybean
BaseContract Contract
Spot
FEB
20Feb
20Apr
19Jun
20Aug
#N/A
#N/A
20Apr
19Jun
20Aug
Spread
FullCarry
%ofFull
Carry
0
14
29
50
#N/A
#N/A
14
29
50
44
132
223
316
#N/A
#N/A
89
179
272
0%
11%
13%
16%
#N/A
#N/A
16%
16%
18%
Soyoil
Base
Contract
Spot
Ja n
APR
19Jun
20Aug
15
36
91
184
17%
20%
Feb
20Aug
21
94
22%
Apr
JUN
Contract
Spread
FullCarry
%ofFull
Carry
20Feb
20Apr
19Jun
20Aug
31
55.95
72.45
73.3
7
23
38
54
0%
0%
0%
0%
20Apr
19Jun
20Aug
24.95
41.45
42.3
15
30
45
0%
0%
0%
19Jun
20Aug
16.5
17.35
14
29
0%
0%
20Aug
0.85
15
0%
SpotFebisshowingacarryof0%inprevious
sessioncomparedto24%.
SoybeanFebAprisshowingacarryof16%.
backwardation.
withatargetof105%offullcarry.Currently
thecarryisat16%.Werecommendtobook
profits.
Mustardseed
Spot
APR
MAY
JUN
%ofFull
Carry
20Apr
20May
19Jun
20Jul
607
574
518
475
154
206
259
313
0%
0%
0%
0%
20May
19Jun
20Jul
33
89
132
46
93
141
71%
96%
94%
19Jun
20Jul
56
99
47
95
120%
104%
20Jul
43
49
88%
29 March 2012
FundamentalTeam
FaiyazHudaniAsst.VicePresident
SudhaAcharyaSr.ResearchAnalyst
Sugar,Chana&Spices
MadhaviMehtaSr.ResearchAnalyst
Bullion &Energy
PriyankaJhaveriSr.ResearchAnalyst BaseMetals
TechnicalTeam
DharmeshBhatiaDeputyVicePresident
TapanPatelSr.ResearchAnalyst
ShabbirKayyumiResearchAnalyst
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