Analysis Beyond Consensus: The New Abc of Research
Analysis Beyond Consensus: The New Abc of Research
Analysis Beyond Consensus: The New Abc of Research
estimate,
had
the
company
followed
the
purchase
accounting
method
net worth would have been higher by INR39.0bn on the above 2 Promoters*
MFs, FIs & Banks
mergers
would be lower from reported 28%/36% to 20%/26%, respectively
:
FIIs
(15%/22% including goodwill amortisation). TML paid INR12.7bn for
:
Others
acquisitions during FY15, largely towards goodwill.
:
Whats on track?
Revenue
grew a healthy 20% in FY15 (organic growth 17% YoY). Dollar revenue jumped 19% YoY to USD3.7bn (organic growth 16%)
NSUS
Market Data
52-week range (INR)
:
Share in issue (mn)
: (INR bn/USD mn)
M cap
749 / 458
961.5
459 / 7,229
:
Avg. Daily Vol. BSE/NSE
(000) :
ase
2,997.9
Shareholding Pattern
(%)
accounting
Promoters*
26%, respectively
aid INR12.7bn for
method. 36.7
:
34.2
FIIs
Others
13.9
15.2
: Nil
isation impact)
ESOP cost rose from INR1.3bn to INR2.3bn YoY (largely to key management personnel). TML
accounted ESOPs on intrinsic value, as permitted by SEBIs ESOP regulations. Had the company follo
1.5% of PAT (FY14: INR254mn, 0.8%).
Derivatives exposure rose to INR103.6bn, 46% of revenue (FY14: INR62.8bn, 33%), and TML
clocked forex gain of INR6.3bn in hedging reserve. Forex loss in P&L stood at INR2.2bn in FY15 (FY14: INR2.1
Contingent liabilities rose from INR48.1bn in FY14 (60% of net worth) to INR73.1bn (66%) in
FY15 and largely included guarantees, disputed income tax and service tax liabilities. Major increase in FY15
we believe could pertain to erstwhile Satyam Computers.
TML has given premises on operating lease (including long term lease of Land for
Engineering College), for which it receives rent (FY15: INR212mn). Amount receivable in
FY16 is INR283mn and rental receivable after 5 years stands at INR11.0bn, implying average useful life of 39
Profitability analysis
Table 1: Profitability analysis
Source: Company annual report, Edelweiss research
Though revenue jumped 20% YoY, previous years numbers are not comparable due to
acquisitions made by TML during the year. FY15 revenue, in USD terms, grew 19% YoY to
USD3,686mn and included USD100mn from LLC and Softgen (excluding acquisitions, USD revenue gre
Particulars
Standalone
Subsidiary/ JV (Derived)
FY14
%
FY1
%
FY14
%
FY15
Sales
###
191.6
100.0 25.4 ###
34.6
5
Subcontracting
expenses
34.0
20.9
64.2
33.5
(16.9)
163.0
(35.8)
(103.6)
17.1
Operating
and Administrative
23.6
14.5
23.2
12.1 8.4
33.1
14.0
expense
Personnel cost
69.7
42.8
72.0
37.6 27.6 ###
47.1
EBITDA
35.6
21.9
32.3
16.8
Depreciation
4.3
2.6
2.5 1.0
3.8
1.4
26.8
41.8
22.2
41.5
18.4 4.7
EBIT
31.3
19.2
27.5
14.4 5.3
20.8
7.9
Financial Charges
0.9
0.5
0.1
0.0 (0.1) (0.3)
0.2
Other income
0.7
0.4
1.2
0.6 0.4
1.7
(0.2)
PBT before exceptional
31.2
19.1
28.7
15.0 5.8
22.7
7.5
items
Consolidated
% FY14
100.0 188.3
(66.6)
40.6
32.0
136.3 97.4
6.2
24.5
### 5.2
22.8 36.6
### 0.8
(0.5)
1.1
21.7 36.9
9.3
Edelweiss Secur
ad the company followed the fair value method, net profit would have be lower by INR398mn,
Major increase in FY15 includes INR12.8bn relating to service tax matters for 2008 to 2013, which
Land for
Consolidated
% FY15
%
100.0
226.2 100.0
9.1
28.3
17.0 12.537.2
16.4
51.7
24.5
2.8
19.4
0.4
0.6
19.6
119.1
9.3
6.1
35.4
0.3
1.1
36.2
52.7
2.7
15.7
0.1
0.5
16.0
Particulars
Subcontracting expenses
Revenues
Subcontracting as % of
revenues
TML and HCL Tech have the
highest sub-contracting cost
compared to peers
Unbilled revenue surged during
FY15 to 8.6% of sales from 5.7%
in FY14
FY13
6,615
68,731
9.6
FY14
17,114
188,314
9.1
FY15
28,343
226,213
12.5
(INR mn)
Other highlights:
TML incurred INR6.6bn, 3% of revenue in FY15 (FY14: INR5.6bn, 3%), on software, hardware and project spe
contract and are accounted on gross basis.
Employee cost included ESOP cost, which rose from INR1.3bn to INR2.3bn YoY (largely to
key management personnel). TML accounted ESOPs on intrinsic value, as permitted by
SEBIs ESOP regulations. Had the company followed the fair value method, net profit would have been lower
Particulars
Unbilled revenue
% of revenue
Unearned revenue
% of revenue
FY1
2
###
3.9
153
0.3
FY13
2,376
3.5
117
0.2
3
FY14
10,709
5.7
1,421
0.8
FY15
19,425
8.6
1,260
0.6
(INR mn)
FY14
6.0
(%)
FY15
6.6
e, leading to EBITDA
(INR mn)
software, hardware and project specific expenses. These costs are reimbursed by the customers as part of
customers as part of
Standalone
FY14
FY15
FY14
28.7
31.2
(0.3)
5.4
(8.8)
0.0
5.5
(6.8)
27.5
(18.7)
6.1
FY15
5.8
(1.9)
7.5
0.3
0.8
(2.2)
27.4
0.1
1.5
(4.0)
4.7
0.0
6.2
(10.9)
5.1
(8.9)
(1.7)
0.3
(20.4)
4.2
(2.1)
1.5
3.9
(2.1)
2.2
(3.6)
0.3
(14.5)
12.9
(1.0)
11.9
(7.7)
(1.1)
3.1
(6.8)
20.7
(0.4)
20.3
(9.0)
(1.5)
(11.4)
(1.6)
(1.6)
3.0
0.1
3.1
(1.5)
(0.4)
0.5
1.8
(1.7)
3.4
(0.3)
3.1
(2.1)
(11.2)
10.3
0.1
Operating cash flow (OCF), post interest improved YoY from INR15.0bn to INR23.4bn
primarily led by lower working capital investment YoY. Receivables grew by INR8.5bn in FY15 versus I
provisions (primarily led by reduction in liability towards derivatives contracts).
Free cash flows adjusted for capex, acquisitions and incremental investment in subsidiaries
declined from INR5.0bn in FY14 to INR(1.4)bn in FY15.
Table 6: Cash conversion cycle Peer comparison (days)*
Particulars
Trade receivable days
Unbilled revenue days
Inventory days
Advance from customer/unearned
days
##
#
Trade payable days
(5)
(7)
(88)
(40)
(19)
Supplier credit days
20
34
Conversion
cycle
T
FY1 MFY15
L
4
84
88
21
31
(5)
Inf
FY14 os F
Y
61 ys
###
1
20
###
5 (3)
(11)
T
FY14C FY15
81 S
79
18
15
-
(8)
(5)
(5)
(10)
(1)
reve
(94)
66
70
Unbilled revenue rose significantly in FY15 from 21 to 31 days and payable days rose to 109
in FY15, partly led by acquisitions. Receivables, unbilled and payable days are the highest for TML amongst p
During FY15, TML for the first time started availing the bill discounting facility and amount
outstanding as at FY15 stood at INR2.7bn. Receivable days calculated above are adjusted for bills discounted
Edelweiss Securit
36.9
0.0
6.2
(10.9)
36.2
0.1
7.0
(10.7)
32.1
(20.4)
32.6
(8.5)
3.9
5.7
0.3
(5.7)
(16.1)
16.0
(1.0)
15.0
(9.1)
(0.4)
(0.5)
5.0
(8.5)
24.1
(0.6)
23.4
(11.1)
(12.7)
(1.1)
(1.4)
.5bn in FY15 versus INR20.4bn in FY14. The rise in payables was offset by fall in other liabilities and
(5)
(10)
HC
L
CY13
CY1
4
64 Tec
65
24 h
23
13
5
revenue
(1)
66
70
71
108
Total receivables rose from INR43.5bn in FY14 to INR52.1bn in FY15 and unbilled revenue
rose from INR10.7bn to INR19.4bn over the same period.
Payables catapulted from INR9.5bn in FY14 to INR15.2bn in FY15 of which INR3.5bn was led
by acquisitions.
Table 6: Receivables analysis
Source: Company annual report, Edelweiss research
Receivables more than 6 months and 1 year stood higher at INR9.6bn. However, the
company has already provided INR7.0bn towards doubtful receivables.
Table 7: Earnings to cash conversion analysis
Source: Company annual report, Edelweiss research
FY13
151
1,787
1,938
(820)
1,118
15,918
17,036
Particulars
Operating cash flow post interest (A)
Profit after tax (PAT)
Depreciation
Other income
PAT + Depreciation - Other income (B)
Earnings to cash conversion ratio (A/B*100)
FY14
3,604
5,330
8,934
(6,965)
1,969
41,517
43,486
FY11
7,715
6,442
1,435
1,288
6,589
117
FY12
6,206
10,955
1,613
982
11,586
54
FY15
3,343
6,292
9,635
(6,990)
2,645
49,414
52,059
FY13
14,988
12,878
2,000
(747)
15,625
96
(INR mn)
##
###
###
###
###
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
Earnings to cash conversion ratio (A/B*100)
FY15
Edelweiss Secur
(INR mn)
wever, the
(INR mn)
FY14
14,988
30,288
5,222
1,130
34,380
44
FY15
23,448
26,277
6,114
1,065
31,326
75
Merger accounting
During FY15, TML merged Mahindra Engineering Services (MESL) with itself and issued 5 shares for
method and led to increase in net worth by INR2.1bn.
Table9:MESLmergerIncreaseinnetworthifshareswereissuedatmarketprice
Particulars
No of shares
INR mn
(mn)
Shares issued to acquire Mahindra Engineering Services Ltd.
##
43
Net worth increased on account of merger as per
2,058
pooling
of
Total
increase
in net worth (A)
2,101
Value of 4.26mn shares issued on merger at 1 month
6,975
average
4,874
Had the company followed the purchase method of accounting, FY15 net worth would have been hig
Table10:MahindraSatyammergerapprovedinFY14
No of shares
Particulars
INR mn
(mn)
Cash paid for acquiring 42.6% stake in FY10 (A)
29,695
Value of 79.4mn shares issued on merger at 1 month
##48,184
average price of INR606.8 each pre-merger (B)
Total cost of investment in Mahindra Satyam (A+B)
77,879
Net worth increased on account of merger as per pooling of
14,096
interest method (C)
Increase in net worth had the company issued shares
34,088
at market price or followed purchase method of
accounting
(B-C)
Source: Company
annual report, BSE, Edelweiss research
In FY14, the company had merged Mahindra Satyam and other subsidiaries/ associates with
itself which led to increase in net worth by INR16.8bn (INR14.1bn pertaining to Mahindra Satyam).
6
Edelweiss Secur
(INR bn)
FY15
192.6
198.5
18.0
32.3
184.2
105
FY13
44.2
40.4
6.4
3.5
43.3
102
FY15
64.0
65.1
6.8
6.8
65.1
98
s low vis--vis
and issued 5 shares for every 12 shares of MESL in December 2014, aggregating to 4,259,011 shares (1.8%
rketprice
No of shares
(mn)
No of shares
(mn)
ciates with
Mahindra Satyam).
Edelweiss Securities Limited
to 4,259,011 shares (1.8% of outstanding shares). The merger was accounted under the pooling of interest
pooling of interest
After goodwill
amortisation
Particulars
ROE (%)
ROCE (%)
Book value per share
(INR)
amortisation
FY14
44
50
342
FY15
28
36
115
FY14
28
34
567
FY15
20
26
173
FY14
22
29
530
FY15
15
22
164
# Adjusted for treasury shares and net worth adjustment as per above Table
Source: Company annual report, Edelweiss research
EUR 155
GBP 157
10,464
(2,170)
INR
15,676
4
18,154
GBP 183
(1,375)
FCY
16,9
USD 933
56,073
EUR 12
270
92
USD 1,470
991
60
103
4,748
USD 180
62,810
33
GBP 10
998
GBP 1
Options
USD 79
25
Total (77)
As % of revenues
Source:
Company annual report, Edelweiss research
46
Derivatives exposure rose significantly in FY15 to INR103.6bn, 46% of revenue, from
INR62.8bn in FY14.
92,0
EUR 4
(39)
(1)
11,
accounting as per
o be amortised over a
erger of Mahindra Satyam. To that extent, effective voting rights of minority shareholders are lower than the economic
INR
76
4
18,154
GBP 183
(1,375)
FCY
16,920
INR
INR
INR
73
USD 1,470
991
60
103
748
USD 180
62,810
33
92,008
EUR 4
(39)
(1)
11,266
5,211
103,637
of revenue, from
1,368
5,297
1,353
Particulars
ChargedtoP&L
As a part of finance costs
AS a part of other income
Total
Add: Charged to Hedging reserve
(net)
Total forex losses/ (gain)
FY1
FY14
3
###
98.0
###
2,007.0
###
###
(1,049.0) 3,072.0
###
###
FY15
2,234.0
2,234.0
(6,294.0)
(4,060.0)
(INR mn)
(INR mn)
FY13
3,535.0 2,486.0
### 4,084.0
###
843.0
(169.0)
###
5,558.0
FY14
5,558.0
(6,294.0)
(736.0)
Forex losses charged to P&L stood at INR2.2bn in FY15 and TML recorded forex gain of
INR6.3bn in hedging reserve.
Table 15: Contingent liabilities / claims
(INR mn)
Source: Company annual report, Edelweiss research
Particulars
FY14
FY15
FY1
16,492
28,209
2,140
1,212
48,053
79,749
60.3
8
22,170
2,697
30,548
16,506
1,228
73,149
110,418
66.2
(INR mn)
(INR mn)
FY14
FY15
Particulars
Sales
Total income
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
RoCE (%)
RoE (%)
Depreciation
Financial costs
Net profit
Equity shareholders' funds*
Loan funds
Net Debt
Net fixed assets (Ex CWIP and goodwill on consolidation)
CWIP
Goodwill on consolidation
Current assets loans and advances
Current liabilities and provisions
Net current assets (ex-cash)
Cash and cash equivalent
Cash flow from operating activities
Cash flow from investing activities
Cash flow from financing activities
Net cash flows
CAPEX
Working capital (investments)/inflow
Table 16: Summary financials
FY11
FY12
51,402
54,897
52,690
55,879
10,034
9,194
19.5
16.7
22.4
17.6
20.7
31.0
1,435
1,613
1,113
1,026
6,442
10,955
33,514
40,509
12,227
11,266
9,183
7,243
6,137
6,792
608
1,671
33
33
17,246
18,019
9,278
11,235
7,968
6,784
3,044
4,023
4,637
7,117
(1,334)
(4,203)
(2,867)
(3,174)
436
(260)
(1,534)
(2,958)
(2,743)
226
FY13
68,731
67,984
14,242
20.7
19.2
27.2
2,000
1,030
12,878
54,256
13,804
6,701
9,039
343
3,407
23,809
16,377
7,432
7,103
9,597
(7,072)
(3,481)
(956)
(4,382)
3,195
Edelweiss Secu
FY
14
188,314
189,444
###
###
###
###
5,222
799
###
###
3,589
(32,085)
###
2,662
5,640
###
###
###
###
###
(1,896)
(9,723)
4,343
(9,138)
(16,148)
FY15
###
###
###
18.4
36.4
27.6
###
299
###
###
###
(25,252)
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
(20,922)
(7,898)
(4,733)
(11,132)
(8,498)
(INR mn)
Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai 400 098.
Board: (91-22) 4009 4400, Email: [email protected]
Nirav Sheth
Head Research [email protected]
Date
Title
14Jul15
03Jul15
01Jun15
28 Feb15
Union Budget : Corporate tax There is more than meets the eye 06Feb15
12Dec14
08 Dec 14
10Nov14
14 - Oct - 14
Ti
ai 400 098.
eb15
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