Climate Change
Climate Change
Climate Change
1.1
CLIMATE CHANGE
usage refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using
statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and
that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any
change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of
human activity. This usage differs from that in the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, where climate change refers to a change of climate
that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition
of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periods.
Introduction
accelerate. The best estimates indicate that the Earth could warm by 3C by 2100.
The major impacts and threats of climate change will be widespread.
Introduction
Changes in the angle which the earth makes with the plane of the ecliptic.
The tilt angle varies slowly between 22.1o and 24.5 o during a cycle of about
41,000 years, presumably affecting the seasons, temperature distribution and
the general circulation.
2.
3.
Precession of the equinoxes, the regular change in the time when the earth is
a given distance from the sun. At present the earth is closest to the sun in the
Introduction
Northern Hemisphere winter (about 3 January). About 10,500 years ago the
Northern Hemisphere winter came at a time of year when the earth was
farthest from the sun. Other things being equal (which they never are),
winters should have been colder and summers warmer than they are now. In
the Southern Hemisphere the reverse applies.
4.
Shifting of the earth on its polar axis. This hypothesis, suggested by Robert
Hooke in 1686 to explain tropical fossils in England, has been abandoned by
most climatologists in favor of theories based on plate tectonics and
continental drift, which also could account for apparent polar wandering.
5.
Changes in the rate of the earths rotation on its axis, affecting the diurnal
heat budget and ultimately world climates (Critchfield, 2012).
Introduction
tenths of a degree in mean air temperatures. Effects of such eruptions are felt in local
climates deeply but their global climatic impacts were undetectable.
Carbon dioxide and water vapor selectively absorb part of the long wave
terrestrial radiation and a greenhouse effect is created by transmitting short-wave
radiation. An increase of CO2 is thought to produce slightly higher surface
temperatures and it has been proposed as a cause of the warming trend from about
1885 to 1940. Variations in the amount and height of maximum ozone concentration
in the upper atmosphere might also affect air temperatures (Critchfield, 2012).
During volcanic eruptions Sulphur dioxide and chlorine are also emitted which can
react chemically and reduce ozone. Hence, their increase would lead to a small rise
in surface temperatures; a decrease would tend to produce surface cooling.
Continental drift during past geologic eras witnessed land masses shifting to
different latitudinal positions. Geophysicists since the middle of the twentieth
century support crustal movements as explanations of climatic change by giving
refined plate tectonics theory.
The changes in the heat budget or changes in the circulation patterns of the
atmosphere and oceans etc can be regarded as causes of climatic change but they
cannot be solely held responsible for it. As any change in these motion systems are
themselves subject to climatic effects.
Introduction
INDIAN SCENARIO
India will also be severely impacted by climate change as the Indian economic
ties to natural resources and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water and
forestry. India may face a major threat and require serious adaptive capacity to
combat climate change. Many studies have underscored the nations vulnerability to
climate change. With changes in key climate variables, namely temperature,
precipitation and humidity, crucial sectors like agriculture and rural development are
likely to be affected in a major way. Impacts are already being seen in unprecedented
heat waves, cyclones, floods, salinisation of the coastline and effects on agriculture,
fisheries and health.
Decreased snow cover, affecting snow-fed and glacial systems such as the
Ganges and Bramhaputra. 70% of the summer flow of the Ganges comes
from melt water
Rising sea levels causing displacement along one of the most densely
populated coastlines in the world, threatened freshwater sources and
mangrove ecosystems
Introduction
Studies indicate that over 50% of Indias forests are likely to experience shift
in forest types, adversely impacting associated biodiversity, regional climate
dynamics as well as livelihoods based on forest products.
2050s
2080s
Parameters
Annual Winter Summer Annual Winter Summer Annual Winter Summer
Temperature
Change (0C)
1.36
1.62
1.13
2.69
3.25
2.19
3.84
4.52
3.20
Precipitation
Change (%)
2.9
2.7
2.5
6.8
-2.1
6.6
11.0
5.3
7.9
Introduction
Water managers, farmers, and other stakeholders are used to dealing with
seasonal and yearly variation, but climate change will shift weather and water
patterns with greater frequency and to greater extremes. Future situations will be
substantially less manageable and less predictable, exacerbating underlying stresses
and presenting new risks. Increased drought and flood recurrence and duration, higher
variability of precipitation patterns, increased cyclone intensity, changing trends in
snowpack and generally accelerating rates of glacier melt will be experienced.
Introduction
The climate of Rajasthan on the west of the Aravalli like other desert and semidesert regions, gets rapidly heated during the day and cool down quickly after dusk,
variations of as much as 220C is noted in the maximum and minimum temperature. In
the east and south of Aravallis there is considerable variation in the temperature and
amount of rainfall. Climatically, Rajasthan is the driest State in the country.
Rainfall is the only source of water in the State, which is received from south
west monsoon which usually arrives by the middle of June and continues with
intervening breaks till almost September end. The annual rainfall varies from less
than 100 mm to 1000 mm. As one moves from southwest to northeast, the rainfall
goes on decreasing. It is highest on the Aravalli near Mr. Abu where it exceeds 1000
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10
MAP - 1
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11
CLIMATIC VULNERABILITY
Vulnerability in the context of Climate Change is defined as, the degree to
which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of
climate change, including climate variability and extremes.
In the context of Rajasthan, nearly 61% of the geographical area falls under
arid/ semi arid zone. The entire State receives scanty rainfall. Thar Desert in western
Rajasthan is characterized by low and erratic rainfall, high air and soil temperature,
intense solar radiation and high wind velocity. Context-specific interactions of these
factors give rise to frequent droughts and famines.
Various studies show that Rajasthan is likely to suffer further water shortage
due to overall reduction in rainfall. In addition, the State has the maximum
vulnerability and lowest adaptive capacity to climate change challenges. Rajasthan
has the maximum probability of occurrence of drought. Condition may deteriorate in
terms of severity of droughts in Rajasthan. Even 1% increase in temperature from
base data could result in an increase in evapo-transpiration. All the more, the quality
and quantity of ground water and surface water resources in Rajasthan has
deteriorated rapidly in last two decades.
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12
Changes in the climate will have profound effect on hydrological cycle viz.
precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. Preliminary assessments as part
of the Second National Communication (NATCOM) of India to be submitted to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) indicates
that river Luni along with the west flowing rivers Kutch and Saurastra are likely to
face acute water stress conditions, while the river basins of Mahi and Sabarmati are
likely to experience constant water shortage.
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13
to increased production demand, increased pressure on canals, wells and tube wells
for irrigation, etc.
Hence the impacts will be most felt on the vulnerable and poor sections of
the society, therefore vulnerability assessment and adaptation measures must be
taken up in the climate sensitive socio-economic sectors like water and agriculture.
ADAPTATION STRATEGY
Adaptation is a process through which societies make themselves more able
to cope with an uncertain future. Adapting to climate change entails taking the right
measures to reduce the negative effects of climate change (or exploit the positive
ones) by making the appropriate adjustments and changes. There are many options
and opportunities to adapt ranging from technological options such as rainwater
harvesting, drought management, Integrated Water Resources Management strategy
Options to enhance water availability by combining new infrastructure with other
supply-oriented measures such as desalination, re-use and water marketing, Artificial
recharge of groundwater along with policy to regulate groundwater utilization etc.
are also feasible options.
Introduction
1.2
14
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
The review covers books, research articles, reports and popular articles on
the research topic. The main topics covered in the review are: Climate Change,
Vulnerability, Adaptation and Extreme Events.
CLIMATE CHANGE
In his article Rao (1996) identified three locations viz., Ganganagar, Bikaner
and Jaisalmer located along the irrigated tract of the Indira Gandhi Canal to assess
the impact of irrigation in the arid Rajasthan which is seen from the micro-climatic
and vegetation changes that occurred it this region due to the long term climatic
changes. Here the trends in annual rainfall (during 1926 to 1993) and air temperatures
(during 1950 to 1993) are used for analysis. The findings suggest that climatic
droughts prevailed in Ganganagar once in every five years, at Bikaner once in every
three years and at Jaisalmer once in every four years. The annual rainfalls trend
showed an overall increase in Ganganagar, decrease in Bikaner and same trend in
Jaisalmer. The air temperatures at all the three locations showed a general decreasing
trend. It is also observed that the amount of canal water that is applied can influence
atmospheric humidity, but it is not known how far this humidity can enhance
precipitation.
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15
anticipation of climate change. The report also sites a few case studies relating to
Crop Translocation of Winter Wheat in the United States; Resource Substitution in
Response to Scarcity by Dry land for Irrigated Agriculture in the Great Plains and
Sea Level Rise Analogue showing The Rising Great Salt Lake. The case study of
translocation of crops demonstrates that the agricultural sector can expand the range
of certain crops to include climates that are as different as the levels of climate
change projected to occur over the next few decades. The Great Plains example
shows that adaptations can happen in response to resources becoming limited. The
Great Salt Lake example shows that society can, to some degree, address immediate
and vital problems brought about by a changing climate.
The report also suggests the methods of reactive and proactive adaptation
techniques. It concludes that adaptation and mitigation are necessary and
complementary for a comprehensive and coordinated strategy that addresses the
problem of global climate change but the regions and people will suffer some losses
which are unavoidable.
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16
combined cereals, pulses and food grains. The rainfall pattern data from 1871 to
1991 was studied. In the findings we see the kharif growing season coincides with
the south-west monsoon therefore here the correlation between monsoon and crops
is particularly strong. While analyzing crop-climate association on a regional scale
we see that since production varies from one region to another within India, we used
monsoon rainfall data from meteorological subdivisions to study local scale climate
influences on crop production kharif food grains, kharif and rabi rice, total wheat,
kharif sorghum, and kharif groundnut production in individual states. Crops
grown in both the (kharif ) monsoon (except sorghum) and the (rabi) post-monsoon
seasons (except rice and sorghum) respond significantly to the summer monsoon All
the kharif crops except sorghum are strongly associated with ENSO conditions.
However, none of the rabi crop indices showed this relationship the significant
correlations with the Indian Ocean SST anomalies suggest that kharif crop production
indices (except sorghum) have some predictability at a long lead time. Although rabi
groundnut, oilseed and sorghum production indices are related to the Indian Ocean
SST anomalies, such a relationship for annual total production is evident only for
rice, groundnut, oilseeds and food grains.
The results of this study provide evidence that crop response to monsoon
rainfall has some predictability, even before the start of the growing season. This
type of analysis, at a finer spatial scale, could provide useful information for
targeting interventions.
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100000 Years, The Evolutionary Implications Of Living With The Ice Age,
Emerging From The Ice Age Our Climatic Inheritance and The Future are
especially useful. They reviews the aspects of our physiological, intellectual
development and social behavior that have been influenced by climatic factors and
how the features of our lives- diet, health and relation with the nature are the product
of the climate that evolved. The book looks into the past only to gain knowledge for
the future; how man can learn to adapt effectively by changing some of his habits.
Effect of climate on human history can be seen as the book is supported by very
scientifically analysed data. The author also suggests that how IPCC predictions can
be set against what happened during the last ice-age and in the Holocene and in
particular when the climate shifted radically in between those two periods.
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The author suggests that India should be alert, active and assertive in its global
participation and enhance its adaptive capacity.
Rathore et al. (2006) in an article mention the observations that have been
made since the beginning of 21 st century, reporting that changes have been observed
in surface temperature, rainfall, evaporation and extreme events, global mean sea
level has risen etc. these observations have been made in India as well. The writers
stress that warmer climates accelerated the hydrological cycle, which ultimately
affect the groundwater level negatively. The paper attempts to study the possible
impacts of climate change on surface and groundwater resources in India. It studies
the relation between rainfall, food production, population and freshwater needs.
Rivers, snow, ice and glaciers have been while talking about the surface water
resources. Impacts of events of flood and drought too have taken into consideration
while studying the surface water resources. It is mentioned that the ground water has
been exploited unmindfully and has become the main provider to meet the rising
need in the domestic, industrial and agricultural sectors, hence it is declining rapidly.
Projections have been made regarding climate change during the next century
over India and the impact they would have on water resources. It has also been
discussed that ground water management in India has become an important point
now but it is still in a very initial stage. The paper advocates that there should be an
increase in the studies on changing climatic patterns which impact the hydrological
cycle and which are leading to depletion of water resources.
Adger et al. (2009) considered that the previous analysis about adaptation
have been done from a narrow stand point predominantly- ecological, physical,
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19
economic or technical. Here they have articulated four prepositions around ethics,
knowledge, risk and culture as these will open up the limits of adaptation to climate
change. These limits are endogenous and emerge from inside the society.
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20
end in 2012. In this regards itself it also deals how there is much enthusiasm from
political and environmental groups but the underlying economics and politics remain
highly controversial.
The paper by Billett (2010) investigates the role of Indian media in shaping
the opinion of the public regarding the environmental issue of climate change. The
investigation done for the study is based on the coverage through main articles only
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21
excluding opinion and editorial pieces on the climate change issue between January
2002 and June 2007 in the four major English dalies, namely The times of India, The
Hindu, Hindustan Times and The Indian Express; which present climate change in a
very scientific framework as compared to western nations. The methodology followed
a discourse analysis and used the outputs of the Indian discourse i.e. the journalists,
editors and free-lance writers. Here, four main climate change themes were used:
science, impacts, responsibility, action.
It is pointed out that the general belief in media is that the anthropogenic
causes of the problem are only the industrial elite and also highlights the NorthSouth Divide. The press also placed the responsibility and demand for action, having
located the threats of climate change within the country. Here, the study revealed that
on the issue of Climate Politics most of the readers believe that the problem was a
mess created by developed countries. But still India sees climate change as its
responsibility.
Reddy (2009) in his book deals with an array of issues relating to energy
efficiency, development and environment. Some of the chapters are- Climate debate;
Win-win climate policy; Fundamentals of energy efficiency; The benefits and
drawbacks of energy efficiency; Commercializing clean energy technologies; Financing
energy efficiency in transition economies; The role of institutions in promoting
energy efficiency. The chapter dealing with Climate debate gives a brief history of
the policies related to changing climate; it also presents the two views about climate
change. One believing that climate issue is a hoax inflated by media and nothing
special is required to be done. Whereas the other believes that there is enough
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22
evidence to prove that CC is happening in the world and majorly caused due to
anthropogenic activities. The expansion of scientific knowledge is unlikely to end
the debate as each side will get more data to confirm their cases. Regardless of which
side is right the points raised by both are valuable. The real problem is not scientific
controversy but the way in which science is used by economic and political interests
and the risk of scientists becoming a pawn in a high stake political game. The
chapter - Win-win Climate Policy discusses that in 1992 UNFCCC encouraged the
use of cost effective mechanism for tackling climate change. This principle was
reaffirmed by the Kyoto Protocol. The economic win-win is achieved when a
problem is mitigated at negative net economic cost, thus leading to a win for
problem solving and a win for the economy.
The book by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) Working
Group (2009) is a report that looks if there are any security implications of climate
change for India. The Working Group finds out that climate change is a non-traditional
security threat as its impact on human security is immense. Climate change can lead
to loss in biodiversity, breakdown of ecosystems which will have a direct negative
impact on human society which is tightly linked with national security. The chapters
include climate change and Security: Exploring the link; Key Vulnerabilities due to
climate change; climate change and Disasters; Climate change and Migration; Energy
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and climate change; Economics and Adaptation to climate change; Impact on Indias
Bilateral Relations with neighbouring countries; Impact on war-fighting capability
of the Indian Military; Climate change: Indias Negotiating position. Three chapters
in particular relate to my research topic namely, Key Vulnerabilities due to Climate
Change, Climate Change and Disasters and Economics and Adaptation to Climate
Change. The chapters analyze the observed changes in the climate and projected
Climate Change in Indian context and the potential risks and sectoral impacts on
India could face in the next few decades. They suggest that natural disasters are
increasing in terms of frequency, intensity, scope and destructive capacity. These
disasters are linked to Climate Change through short term natural variability,
manifesting in extreme weather conditions such cyclones, storms, floods, droughts,
heat waves, wind storms, and other natural hazards for potential for catastrophic loss
of human lives, damage to infrastructure and environment. This chapter analyses the
impact of Climate Change on the risk of natural hazards in India and proposes
preparedness strategies and emergent policy imperatives. The book also sets up a link
between Climate Change, human security and vulnerability. The chapter establishes
a close relationship between Climate Change and socio-economic concerns for
development. It concludes that climate policy and international negotiations require
a governance framework that is under pinned by the rationale that populations in the
developing world will need to move up the energy ladder in improving basic
standards of living.
The book concludes that the consequences of climate change for a developing
country like India will be serious under any scenario and human security will be
affected. India should use climate change as an opportunity to make socio-economic
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24
development more sustainable. For the same The National Action Plan of climate
change is considered a good beginning, but its time-bound implementation needs to
be ensured.
The report by Singh et al. (2010) of Rajasthan State Pollution Control Board
highlights the fact that Rajasthan is a climate sensitive state, having maximum
vulnerability and lowest adaptive capacity. Due to this reason the adaptation strategies
here become inevitable. There is an emphasis on the science-based policy making.
The report mentions policies relating to water, dry lands, forests, agro-forestry, urbanforests, dune restoration, biodiversity and mine-spoil management in Rajasthan.
A brief review of the available literature and an annotated bibliography of
published research on climate change impacts, mitigation and adaptation are
provided in order to facilitate the identification of policy options in Rajasthan.
ADAPTATION
Gowd et al. (1998) in the article presented a systematic study conducted of
the various landforms and geomorphic units that have been carried out in the
Peddavanka watershed area comprising a catchment area of 298 sq. km. in the
Anantapur district of Andra Pradesh. Hydro-geomorphology and lineament studies
have been carried in the region. Related maps are prepared based on the visual
interpretation of the satellite data of IRS-1B and LISS-II on 1:50,000 scale.
The authors suggest that such maps prepared with the use of satellite imagery
are very useful in identifying favorable zones for groundwater. Such hydrogeomorphologic maps revels that the shallow groundwater occurrences are controlled
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25
Noss (2001) talks about forest management on which the Kyoto Protocol is
silent on and argues that if we study how forests address climate change and other
stresses under natural conditions then even we might be able to maintain, restore or
mimic these processes of adjustments. Sometimes the changes become progressively
faster, more intense, or broader in extent that a global mass extinction becomes
probable. The Conservationists have to keep the rates, scales, and intensities of
change in ecosystems within the historic range of variability and they must also
develop strategies to mitigate the effects of inevitable changes that fall outside the
historic range of variability.
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26
changing climate. He has also highlighted some points on which he suggests that
further research is required.
The paper by Das et al. (2005) presents a case study of Tonk district
(Rajasthan) that focuses on the traditional adaptation practices used by the vulnerable
communities in this drought prone area. This place is the best decision ground to
formulate any policy and financial intervention. Tonk has been chosen as the
representative survey area and the situation post the worst drought of 2002 is studied.
It was experienced that occurrences of drought has increased. The traditional
adaptation practices followed were not sowing more water demanding crops like
wheat and cotton, growing crops only for self consumption and those too requiring
minimum water like mustard, chana, cumin seeds. There is also provision for storing
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27
enough fodder for animals and food grains for self consumption. To obtain water in
a scarce situation generally wells are deepened, new ponds are dug and construction
of anicuts is seen. With the help of a local NGO a medicinal plant named Sona
Mukhi is widely grown which earns them some revenue which is utilized in drought
period. Organic manure is also promoted- vermi-compost, fodder crops are grown
for both domestic and market consumption. The article also mentions the role of
government by programs like Food-for-Work Program, District Poverty Initiative
Project and self-help groups, international funding agencies. The authors have made
some recommendations regarding drought adaptation techniques like efficient
resource management, planning to be linked with developmental activities, efficient
monitoring of programs and enhancement of awareness.
The paper by The Energy and Resources Institute (2006) discusses ways
of mainstreaming adaptation considerations into sustainable development efforts by
establishing a link between adaptation to climate change and sustainable development.
The paper tries to look into the fact that what specific climate change impacts and
measures will affect development efforts and how. After understanding the link better
integrated policies can be formulated. To achieve the desired goal the paper includes
a discussion on the concepts of Vulnerability and Adaptation, their assessment
criterion and why focusing on them is important. It is seen that climate change and
sustainable development interact in a circular fashion. As the human induced climatic
changes affect the sustainable development and the developmental techniques affect
the human factors like land-use change. The measures for integration should be done
on all local, sectoral, national and global levels. Particular significance should be
given to developing nations as they are considered more vulnerable.
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28
Introduction
29
It has been suggested that the crop selection should be done of the crop which
can deal with the changing climate and this is a very effective way of adaptation by
the farmers. It is also suggested that the adaptation process can be made smoother if
they are made aware of the potential impacts of climate change.
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30
Virda in Gujarat, Dhora of Aravalli region and Eri of Tamil Nadu. Here a
traditional water harvesting system of Sudan is mentioned, stating that it enhanced
their agricultural production security.
Sahai (2008) talks about the negative impact that the global climate change
will have on the crops around the world as it will impact the key cropping factors i.e.
temperature and rainfall. The article also points out that simulation of crop response
models are usually limited to important crops. The impact of higher temperatures,
increased carbon dioxide, rising water stress and increased crop pests are also
discussed. The article mentions the possible benefits of global warming which can
be good for agriculture - enhanced Carbon dioxide assimilation, longer growing
season, and increased precipitation.
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The author suggests that the best remedy to this problem is Climate Proofing
the crops. Where crop management practices should be changed by the farmers, grow
tougher plant varieties and be prepared for constant changes in the way they operate.
Srivastav (2008) discusses the strong link between agriculture and rainfall
and examines how strongly both of them impact the agricultural production and state
of farmers in India. The article also mentions that there are 177 districts where
agriculture is completely rain-fed. The author also cites a study conducted by TERI
in Chhattisgarh showing the impact of climate change on cropping pattern. The
article mentions that the frequency of droughts is also likely to increase due to climate
change as pointed out by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The
declaration of UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) regarding the need to
increase the resilience of the worlds food systems to climate change especially for
the developing nations is also cited here.
The article impresses on the fact that the Indian agricultural system should
put in place an apt coping mechanism timely to save the farmers and the production;
else it could witness a drastic fall in production.
Akermann et al. (2009) gives a glimpse of the major problems with which
the semi-arid Rajasthan is suffering prolonged drought periods, reoccurring in short
intervals as 80% of annual rainfall between June to September and rest nine months
remain dry. The irrigation coverage is also low. According to few farmers rainfall in
past few decades has become even more erratic and untimely, the number of rainy
days has also decreased as most of the agriculture is rainfall dependent and therefore
the farmers abandon their fields and work in nearby cities as their adaptation
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32
strategy. Here, the author also mentions the remarkable work done by an NGO
namely, Cecoedecon (Centre for Community Economics and Development
Consultant Society) in a village-Bhipur, Rajasthan. Due to its specialized assistance
through seed conservation and grain storage and water harvesting and controlling
were done which resulted in increased crop yield and soil moisture and even barren
land could be put under agriculture. More heat adapted and less water demanding
variety of crops like-millets, green-gram, pulses and mustard are introduced and
locally made pesticides e.g. of neem are used which reduce the input cost as well.
Local seed banks are also established.
With this article the author shows one of the successful adaptation practices
from local communities but also stresses on the fact that it was all due to the cooperation of the locals.
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33
have decreased; more occurrences of drought; late onset and early withdrawal of
monsoon is observed. Uneven distribution and unpredictable behavior of the rains is
also seen. When the factors influencing farmers perception to climate change were
noted they were- age, experience, innovativeness, environmental consciousness and
exposure of mass media. The adaptation strategies undertaken were- Integrated
farming system (most important adaptation technique), adjusting cropping sequence,
rain water harvesting etc.
It was observed that the farmers taking up adaptation measures were of more
age and experience, were receipt of extension, advice, level of education, larger farm
or showed environmental consciousness.
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also affects the decisions taken in this regards. Hence it is seen that role of local
bodies is crucial but due to some reason their functioning is not that effective as it
can be due the various barriers.
A report by World Bank (2010) sums up the various efforts carried out in
the most drought-prone districts of Mahbubnagar and Anantapur in Andra Pradesh
by a World Bank project - Andra Pradesh Drought Adaptation Initiative (APDAI). It
includes 19 pilot projects sought to enhance the adaptive capacity of rain fed farming
systems to climate variability through optimum use of water, Diversified Farming
System, System of Rice Intensification (SRI), Deccani breed improvement in sheep
and improvement in tank-based fisheries.
VULNERABILITY
Venema et al. (2002) in the article lays stress on the situation of rural India
and especially of women. The Indian society is largely agrarian and since 1950 there
have been an increase in out-migration of population to non-farm activities. In this
situation the role of women has been greatly marginalized. Their role in farms
include high amount labor still they are deprived of much economic benefit and
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35
illiteracy ruins this situation and many more. Due to climate change impact on crop
cycles are predicted due to which problems will rise for the rural poor. An example
of Kerala is cited where birth rates are low and literacy rate is high and has very less
gender discrimination. Therefore, the author suggests that the rural environmental
development programs should be community managed and women must play an
active role in the developmental programs and they should also be a central concern
of such programs.
The research paper by The Energy and Resources Institute (2003) deals
with the study of the impacts of climate change and of changes brought about by
economic globalization on a particular region or society. Use of a framework based
on the concept of double exposure is done here. It is identified that the major climate
induced effects are the direct effects from changes in temperature, precipitation, or
carbon dioxide concentrations, indirect effects through changes in soil moisture and
changes in the frequency of droughts or floods. On the economic part there is the
impact of globalization and the implementation of structural administrative reforms.
The Indian agriculture becomes even more vulnerable as there is not much scope to
increase the area under food grains whereas we still have the challenge of feeding a
billion people in a changing climatic and economic scenario. One of the objectives
of the study was to create climate change vulnerability profile for India at the district
level for which a series of maps were constructed. Hence maps depicting biophysical,
social, and technological and climate change vulnerability have been presented. A
second objective of the study was to create a globalization vulnerability profile for
Indian agriculture. For this the map is based on the degree of sensitivity and adaptive
capacity, assuming uniform exposure to liberalization policies such as tariff
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36
reductions. The two climate change and globalization vulnerability profiles were
then superimposed to identify districts that are double exposed to both processes.
The resulting map indicates that districts in western Rajasthan, southern Gujarat,
Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, northern Andhra Pradesh, and
southern Bihar are considered double exposed. To study the micro-level implications
of vulnerability in the double affected areas, case studies were conducted across five
districts, i.e. Jhalawar district of Rajasthan, Anantapur district in Andhra Pradesh,
Raipur in Chhattisgarh, Jagatsingpur in Orissa and Chitradurga district of Karnataka.
Based on the case studies conducted in these some policy formulation related
suggestion have been given so that they are designed to fortify current coping
capacity also have the power to strengthen long-term adaptive capacity. Measures
such as crop insurance, seed banks, alternative (off-farm) employment options, and
enhanced access to inputs and Markets. Another set of policy-relevant insights
offered by the case study approach relates to the understanding of how certain
factors change the vulnerability of a given community or place over time. This study
wishes to bring attention to the need for strengthening institutions and better
integrating policies with the goal of building long-term adaptive capacity and
resilience to climate change.
Hulme (2003) in his paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in
terms of its potential implications for society; the area under study is The United
Kingdom and northwest Europe in particular. The paper also mentions that the
previous works have generally considered the implications only from economic and
ecological perspectives. Here, the author discusses some implications from a social
and behavioural science perspective. The author considers that the events of abrupt
Introduction
37
climate change have generally been ignored during the analyses of climate-change
impacts and in the design of climate adaptation strategies. The nature of abrupt
climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are
also examined. The example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation is
discussed to show the implications for society of abrupt climate. The author also
examines if abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or
intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in
climate, and what impact it can pose on the adaptation strategies practiced now.
The paper concludes with mentioning the two fundamental problems for
society associated with such an outcome of an abrupt climate change. Firstly, the
future changes in climate currently being anticipated and; secondly, the probability
of such a scenario occurs remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both
problems the problems occurring during climate policy and for decision making
have not been researched so far. It is suggested that a study should be undertaken to
analyze how society would respond to regional climate trends reversed and whether
or not this reversal was related to natural climate variability or abrupt climate change
triggered by anthropogenic forces.
Through a study OBrien et al. (2004) and other scholars have tried to
identify a method for mapping vulnerability to two stressors (i.e. climate change and
economic globalization) at the sub-national level and then it is applied to examine
the vulnerability of Indias agricultural sector.
The approach comprises four main steps: (1) developing a national vulnerability
profile for climate change at the district level; (2) developing a national vulnerability
Introduction
38
profile for an additional stressor at the district level; (3) superimposing the profiles
to identify districts in India that are double exposed; and (4) conducting case
studies in selected districts.
Introduction
39
Chitradurga district in Karnataka. Apart from the various merits, like use of topdown and bottom-up approaches to understand vulnerability and identifying
locations where policy intervention is most critical, there are some limitations of the
method as well. There are differences between farmers and the villages not captured
during mapping though they are identified in case study; concerning the time scale
of the analysis; mapping the district level may lead to false sense of precision. But
the key strength of the approach is that it provides a means for evaluating the relative
distribution of vulnerability to multiple stressors at a sub-national level.
Tompkins et al. (2004) in the paper proposes the belief that adaptation to
climate change requires a broader conceptualization of equitable, legitimate, and
sustainable development in effective and resilient response. Some natural systems
have inbuilt ability to adapt whereas others have to learn how to become resilient.
Here the focus to built resilience in both social and ecological features is on the role
of networks and institutions. Managing natural resource systems with the added
stresses associated with climate change poses a challenge for socio-ecological systems.
Introduction
40
policies. In this paper the authors have cited a case of Trinidad & Tobago for how
co-management promotes resilience for climate change adaptation. There was struggle
of balancing development and conservation. But with co-management adaptations
the stakeholders now take both the actions together. This is believed to transform
into greater ecosystem resilience with time.
Mall et al. (2006) in the article points out that crop growth, development,
water use and yield under normal conditions are largely determined by weather
during the growing season and even with minor deviations from the normal weather,
the efficiency of extremely applied inputs and food production is seriously impaired.
In India agriculture plays a key role in overall economic and social well being. For
the study the all-India area, production and yield of food grains from 1950-51 to
2003-04 along with percentage coverage under irrigation data have been analyzed. It
shows that all these factors are dependent on the vagaries of monsoon. Global
warming may also threaten India food security if there is a negative effect on
agriculture. Climate variability and food production are enormously linked as
extreme weather conditions, such as floods, droughts, heat and cold wave, flash
floods, cyclones and hailstorm, are direct hazards to crops and subtle fluctuation in
weather during critical phases of crop development can also have substantial impact
on yields. Impacts on wheat, sorghum, rice, chickpea, soya bean and maize have
been presented. It is suggested that adaptation measures to mitigate the potential
impact of climate change included possible changes in sowing dates and genotypes
selection. It also mentions that several studies have projected increase or decrease in
yields of cereal crops (rice, wheat, maize and sorghum), Oilseed and pulses crops
(soybean, groundnut, chickpea, mustard and pigeon pea) depending on interaction of
Introduction
41
temperature and CO2 changes, production environment, season and location in India.
Still the climate change impact studies have not conducted on several important
crops in India such as sugarcane, cotton, jute, sunflower, potato and onion etc., which
may be done in future for better assessment of vulnerability of Indian agriculture due
to climate change.
Malone et al. (2008) discusses about their study conducted in 2005, in which
they assessed the current resilience of India and Indian states to climate, using
Vulnerability Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM). Through this approach we learn
about the differing sources and levels of vulnerability and resilience of the Indian
states. In this study the future scenario of Resilience Assessment is also done.
VRIM is a four-tier hierarchical model uses 17 proxies (relating to Sensitivity and
Adaptive Capacity), each contributing to the overall Resilience Index. The projections
utilized two IPCCs SRES based scenario rapid growth scenario and delayed
growth scenario. A comparative study of Orissa & Punjab has been done as to show
what kind of data can be obtained from VIRM. The outcomes of this model can be
used by policy makers and this model can be applied elsewhere for resilience study.
Introduction
42
deals with 38 years of rainfall since 1966 to 2003 and the data for ground water level
since 1984 to 2003 i.e. 20 years for comparison with water level fluctuations and
rainfall patterns and their variations are studied for two decades during 1984-2003.
The ground water levels fluctuate differently in the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon
period. The fluctuation was represented using water index WFI which was developed
to quantify recharged deficit. It was found that for the monsoon period recharge
exceeds withdrawal and vice-versa for non-monsoon period. In the decadal
observations are asymmetric response of water table to monsoon rainfall is seen. The
inter-annual variability of rainfall follows no deficit trend or pattern.
Through this study we come to know that the monsoon rainfall has improved
to some extent in the last decade in the south-western part but decreased in the
central Aravalli. Significant change in aquifer-recharge is observed in the later decade
in comparison to earlier decade and the GIS-based time-series analysis is found
advantageous in monitoring spatio-temporal variation of ground-water recharge.
Introduction
43
Andra Pradesh and Amda and Kundai of Udaipur district in Rajasthan. The climatic
conditions of all the four villages were assessed and on that basis their climate
projections and the impact on natural resources was calculated. To build response
capacity and improve management of climate risks it included interventions for
improved land and water management, energy conservation, promotion of best
agronomic practices, introducing systems for improved weather based farming
decisions and awareness creation.
effect
precipitation,
soil
moisture,
evapotranspiration (ET) etc. the major stress is laid on the relation between the
effect of global warming on crops water requirement and ultimately on groundwater
resources of Rajasthan. Here, rate of ET has been taken has been taken as the main
component for the study and its relation is studied with climate change and water
resources. The author also stressed upon the fact that the proper water management
techniques should be put to practice as Rajasthan already has water scarcity and it is
likely to increase as the rate of ET is increasing causing a reverse affect an crop
production which ultimately affects the economy of the state.
The book by Singh et al. (2009) talks about the unprecedented loss and
changes in biodiversity taking place at the genetic, species and ecosystem levels, in
both terrestrial and marine group of organisms at Uttarakhand in particular. The
chapters include - Environmental change and biodiversity: Global and Indian
experiences; Environmental change and biodiversity in Uttarakhand; Environmental
change and biodiversity: conceptual framework and research design; Environmental
Introduction
44
profile of Nanda Devi biosphere reserve; Land use/ land cover change and biodiversity:
using RS, GIS and perception approaches; Inventory of biodiversity using: RS and
GIS; Landslide hazard and biodiversity; Biodiversity conservation: global to local
initiatives. The chapter Land use/ land cover change and biodiversity: using RS,
GIS and perception approaches mentions that there is an increased use of Remote
Sensing and GIS technology for the study of land cover/use dynamics. Images from
Landsat-7 acquired from Enhanced Thematic Mappper are utilized. To study the
region, it has been divided into four classes- forest, glaciers, river and bare-land. As
all these classes are dynamic, changes can be studied efficiently. The authors point
out that the problem of biodiversity loss needs to be minimized in order to keep the
ecosystem functional. The book also contributes to Indias efforts in fulfilling the
goals of the International Year of Planet Earth, Kyoto Protocol and UNFCCC.
The authors reveal that India has witnessed climatic anomalies but is still
under-prepared to face climate change impacts. So for these adaptation strategies
Introduction
45
EXTREME EVENTS
Jodha (1969) does the analysis of weekly rainfall data for 47 years (i.e.
1908-1966) the scholar predicts that there is an occurrence of at least one severe
drought in a period of five years. The study indicated that the agriculture gets
affected due to paucity of rainfall but there are other factors too which contribute
like less soil moisture, low atmospheric humidity and high temperature; these too
contribute in water loss. In this situation if modern conservation techniques likebunding, mulching, micro-wind breaks, shelter belts are used then the water paucity
situation created by drought can be controlled. The farmers must also stick to the
cropping of bajra, moth, gwar etc. as they are drought resistant. Similarly, the
perennial grasses must be used to sustain livestock economy. The author also points
out the fact that the grazing lands have a lot of forage to support the animals for two
to three years in the arid region of Rajasthan like Jaisalmer, Barmer, and Bikaner.
But this phenomenon is seen only during monsoonal period. As the water dries in
the region the forage dries up. Therefore, there is a need of stock watering
arrangement so that this forage can be used as pasture land even during the scarcity
period. Proper grazing regulation should be made to ensure controlled and
systematic use of forage.
Introduction
46
the land use patterns of the districts like Barmer, Bikaner and Jaisalmer are properly
controlled then the scarcity situation can be brought very much in control.
Introduction
47
The paper by De (2005) reviews the major natural disasters and extreme
weather events which occurred in India from 1901 to 2004. The abnormalities are
observed in the occurrence of- cold wave, fog, snow storms, avalanches, hailstorm,
Introduction
48
thunder storm, dust storm, heat wave, tropical cyclones, tidal waves, floods, heavy
rains, landslides and drought. It has been observed that the frequency and duration of
the events have increased which cause loss of life and property. IPCC in 2001 has
observed that human activities are largely responsible for global warming. This
situation has been intensified due to deforestation, urbanization, and increase in the
number of automobiles. Due to the increase in the frequency of extreme events the
infrastructure associated with the population has also become vulnerable.
Introduction
49
water level as a correspondent of aquifer- stress. The pre-monsoon and postmonsoon ground-water levels of 541 wells of the region had been collected from the
Ground Water Department, Jodhpur, Rajasthan, and have been analyzed to study the
drought effects on hydrological regime Normalised Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI)
and Vegetation Health Index (VHI) have been employed to assess vegetative
drought. Vegetative and agricultural droughts reflect vegetation- stress caused due
to adverse climatic and hydrologic factors. NDVI reflects the vegetation condition
through the ratio of responses in near infrared (Ch2) and visible (Ch1) bands of
Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) of NOAA VCI varies in the
range 0 and 100 (%) reflect relative changes in the vegetation condition from
extremely bad to optimal. Similarly, Temperature Condition Index represents the
relative change in thermal condition in terms of brightness temperature whose values
are obtained from the thermal band (Ch4) of NOAA-AVHRR. VCI, TCI and VHI of
the study area have been computed for the monsoon and the non-monsoon periods
during the years 19842002 by averaging weekly values. Some of the significant
findings in the context of meteorological drought severe to extreme droughts were
observed during 1984-1987, 2000; moderate drought- 1991, 1993, 1995 and 1999.
Hydrological drought is marked by decline of water level at various pockets both
during the monsoon and the non monsoon periods depending upon rainfall,
temperature and draft. During the monsoon of 1985, the vegetation experienced
stress and loss of vegetation health (i.e. vegetative drought) However, it is also seen
that a reasonably good match is observed among all the three drought indices SPI,
SWI and VHI.
Introduction
50
SPI maps indicate that meteorological drought appears in the Aravalli region
in a random fashion. The SWI maps reveal that in the Aravalli region aquifer-stress
shifts its position time to time and the migration is alternate from east to west and
vice versa. In comparison to hydrological stress, vegetative stress in the Aravalli
region is slower to begin but quicker to withdraw. The time-series maps of different
droughts reveal no linear correlation. Moreover, speed of drought development and
drought duration also vary widely. Therefore, identification, classification, and
analysis of drought dynamics are highly influenced by the monitoring parameters.
Introduction
51
in India. They identify that out of 3.28mil km2 of geographical area of India about
1.07 mil km2 land experiences water stress and drought condition. By studying the
climatic records of Rajasthan, it is selected by the scholars as the study area. Here,
13 districts covering an area of 10.72 mha i.e. 23000N and 26005N latitude,
71018E and 77042 E were selected for drought monitoring. This area covers 4 out
of the 9 agro-climatic zones identified in the state namely- the transitional plain of
Luni basin (zone 1), the Sub humid southern plain zone and the Aravalli hills (zone
2), the humid south- eastern plain (zone 3) and the humid southern plain (zone 4).
The meteorological data in form of monthly precipitation data for 5 stations
(Udaipur, Bhilwara, Dungarpur, Chittorgarh and Kota) from 1981-2005 was used.
27 NOAA-AVHRR satellite images were used for the period 2002-2005. The
Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) based on precipitation data and the NDVI
(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), TCI (Temperature Condition Effect),
VCI (Vegetation Condition Index) using satellite data were applied to identify
drought prone area they were computed from satellite derived land surface
parameters. By using the precipitation values for all the stations for the monsoon
period (June to October) for the years 2002-2005 were computed at the NDVI, VCI,
TCI, BT (Brightness Temperature) and WSVI (Water Supply Vegetative Index)
were obtained from AVHRR images during 2002-2005. Here we find that SPI which
revealed that 2002 was the most drought affected state is a very reliable drought
indicator in raj. The economic analysis of NDVI shows that Zone-1 had max drought
conditions from the years followed by Zone-4; Zone-2 and 3 were least affected.
The result reflects the possibility of using satellite images with better spatial and
temporal resolution in drought monitoring in India.
Introduction
52
Introduction
53
1.3
1.
2.
3.
4.
Introduction
1.4
HYPOTHESIS
1.
Extreme events i.e. droughts and floods have increased in the state.
54
3.
Heat waves/hot spells in summer of longer duration, more intense and more
frequent, particularly in Western Rajasthan.
4.
Introduction
1.5
55
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Case Studies
Two case studies were conducted covering rural as well as urban area. First
study was conducted to find out the farmers respond to climate change in rural area
of Rajasthan. For this Aagore, Mahaderi Naadi, Uttarlai naadi, Sarkapaar,
Naganeshia and Beriyon ka Baas dhaanis were covered from drought prone areas
of the state. A questionnaire was prepared to collect the primary data.
Second study was conducted in the Barmer city urban area to study the
urbanization, water crises and its management.