An Infrastructure Plan For America
An Infrastructure Plan For America
An Infrastructure Plan For America
July 2016
W W W.AMERICANPROGRESS.ORG
An Infrastructure
Plan for America
How Investing in Infrastructure Will Lay the
Foundation for Prosperity, Advance Environmental
Goals, and Rebuild the Middle Class
By Kevin DeGood, Christian Weller, and Andrew Schwartz
July 2016
Contents
How infrastructure
shapes our nation
Throughout U.S. history, major infrastructure investments have shaped our society,
fueled economic growth, and raised standards of living. In the early 19th century, the
Erie and Ohio canal systems helped to open up the interior of the country, fueling
population growth while expanding trade and development. Prior to their completion, the movement of goods and agricultural commodities was largely relegated to
trails, underdeveloped roads, and coastal navigation.4 The efficiency gains from canal
construction were significant. For instance, when compared to a horse, a single canal
barge could transport 240 times the cargo weight.5 Freight costs fell by as much
as 90 percent compared to ox- or horse-drawn wagon.6 The canal system was such
a powerful force that it also shaped settlement patterns. For example, to this day,
nearly 80 percent up upstate New Yorks population lives within 25 miles of the Erie
Canal, which stretches 365 miles from Albany to Buffalo.7 The Erie Canal also made
the port in New York City the busiest in the country, spurring the growth of related
sectors such as manufacturing, finance, and insurance.8
In the late 19th century, the transcontinental railroad tied a vast continent together.
Prior to its completion, a cross-country trip by stagecoach cost $1,000 and took
five to six months.9 According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, $1 in
1850 is worth approximately $28.45 in 2015. In other words, a transcontinental
trip by wagon cost the equivalent of roughly $28,000.10 In the 1860s, a second-class
ticket on the Central Pacific Railroad from Chicago to San Francisco cost only $45.
When adjusting for inflation this translates to $1,280 in 2015 dollarsroughly 22
times cheaper than an equivalent trip by wagon.11 In 1956, President Dwight D.
Eisenhower signed the Federal-Aid Highway Act into law.12 This groundbreaking legislation initiated the construction of the largest public works program in U.S. history.
President Eisenhower succinctly summarized the national project, saying, Together,
the united forces of our communication and transportation systems are dynamic elements in the very name we bear - United States. Without them, we would be a mere
alliance of many separate parts.13 The 1956 Highway Act envisioned a seamless
network of highways that would efficiently link urban and rural areas, ensuring connectivity and spurring economic growth. Flash forward more than six decades, and
the interstate construction program initiated by Eisenhower has been so successful
that it is scarcely possible to image the United States without these facilities.
3 Center for American Progress | An Infrastructure Plan for America
The time has come for a proactive approach to investing that looks to the future,
correcting mistakes from the past and directing funds to projects that will
power our economy in the 21st century. In the absence of robust investment
and a vision for Americas future growth and development, existing systems will
further deteriorate, leading to more congestion, pollution, and lost productivity,
among other challenges.
Decades of heavy use have taken their toll. Three major interchanges,
including number 46 at Sisson Avenue, 47 at Sigourney Street, and 48
Hartford in two. The 2.5-mile section of I-84 west of downtown Hartford runs on an elevated viaductessentially a long bridge that rises
traffic. The 2.7 miles of I-84 west of downtown include eight full or
24
accident rates. Between 2009 and 2012, there were 1,170 accidents
25
call for a 12-foot shoulder. By comparison, I-84 has shoulders that are
only 2 feet to 4 feet wide. This means that any breakdown affects main-
will come with a big cost. CTDOT estimates that simply maintaining
the existing viaduct and interchange ramps will cost more than $2.5
26
only $484 million. Assuming the final cost is at the high end of
the rangea fair assumption given the history of cost overruns
partner that can provide major capital projects along with a mix of
The U.S. Department of Transportation, or USDOT, estimates that transit operators face a repair and replacement backlog of $86 billion.27 This figure includes
elements such as buses, streetcars, vans, and subway carsalso referred to as
rolling stockas well as stations, power systems, communications equipment,
maintenance yards, and tracks, among other facilities. For many transit providers, repair and replacement of rolling stock is a constant challenge. For instance,
according to USDOT, the chassis and other major structural components of a city
bus are designed to last approximately 12 years with an even shorter lifecycle for
the engine and drivetrain.28 The relatively short life of a bus is due to intense daily
use, frequent stops, heavy loads, and wear from poorly maintained city streets.
Transit providers, therefore, face a constant, costly battle to maintain their fleets to
meet the daily needs of passengers.
While daunting, these asset repair needs for highways and transit pale in comparison to the largest challenge facing surface transportation in the United States:
metropolitan area congestion. According to Texas A&M University research,
urban congestion added 6.9 billion hours to travel times and burned an additional
3.1 billion gallons of fuel for a total economic cost of $160 billion.29 In short, the
United States has long since overcome the post-war problem of inadequate connectivity. The issue now is how to move people and freight in an efficient manner
in dense metropolitan regions.
Federal surface transportation policy has three major problems that limit
its effectiveness at combating metropolitan congestion: too much emphasis
on highway expansion; insufficient funding and decision-making authority
for metropolitan regions; and not enough accountability for how states and
regions spend federal funds.
In the past 35 years, the population of the United States grew from 226 million to
319 million peoplean increase of 41 percent.30 At the same time, the total number of registered vehicles grew at an even faster rate, increasing by 90 million, or 57
percent.31 The biggest growth of all came in total driving, which increased by 100
percent, from 1.5 trillion miles to 3.1 trillion miles.32 The U.S. Bureau of the Census
estimates that, over the next 50 years, the U.S. population will grow by more than
100 million people.33 If the current per-capita rate of vehicle registration holds over
this time, 85 million more vehicles will be vying for space on our roadway network.34
At first, these statistics seem to suggest that the solution to urban congestion is
substantial highway expansion. However, the truth is that, in many urban areas,
dense commercial and residential development along highway corridors makes
expansion extremely expensive and politically fraught since it would involve
large-scale use of the power of eminent domain. In effect, general public support
for more pavement quickly evaporates when state departments of transportation
begin identifying land for condemnation.
8 Center for American Progress | An Infrastructure Plan for America
In 2005, Congress created a national commission to study transportation needs and financing options. The final report stated its
conclusions bluntly:
Contributing to the scale of the problem is a deeply entrenched
over-reliance on the personal automobile for travel in urban corridors. Strategies to shift more trips to public transit will play a
large role in any forward-thinking efforts to reduce congestion.35
Even though congestion is the defining surface transportation
challenge of our time, federal policies have not kept pace with
rapid urbanization and the need for greater mobility options.
As the commission notes, the current federal program provides
substantially more funding for highways than other modes.
In fact, 80 percent of federal transportation spending goes to
highway projects.36 This can be thought of as a modal imbalance
that pushes states to focus too much on highway capacity at the
expense of other transportation options.
The second problem facing the federal program is that metropolitan regions lack
sufficient funding and decision-making authority. Under the current program
structure, the super majority of federal funds flow to state departments of transportation even though the most pressing congestion problems occur on a regional
scale, as most travel is local.37 According to USDOT, in 2011the most recent
year for which data are available74 percent of all trips taken in a vehicle each
year are less than nine miles in length.38 Furthermore, 67 percent of all vehicles
miles traveled occurred within urban areas during this same time.39
Under current law, metropolitan regions with more than 50,000 residents are
required to set up metropolitan planning organizations, or MPOs. These regional
agencies are required to develop long-range transportation plans. However, MPOs
are not given the resources to carry these plans out. These agencies only play a role
in allocating a modest share of the funding from the Surface Transportation Block
Grant, or STBG, Program. This process is known as suballocation. And even
though regions are supposed to have the latitude to direct these funds according
to their priorities, in reality, MPOs must often negotiate with their state department of transportationoften with the implicit threat of losing money from other
programsallowing the state to impose its priorities instead.
FIGURE 1
95%
Formula
programs
5%
Competitive
programs
Stated differently, states and regions are not held accountable for
achieving specific transportation system performance outcomes
tied to clear national policy objectives. Instead, federal rules focus
almost exclusively on process. As long as a state or region applies to spend federal
money on an eligible use, USDOT approves the project. In this way, the federal
program operates like an unrestricted block grant.
FIGURE 2
133%
171%
83%
107%
169%
76%
97%
235%
89%
224%
86%
121%
106%
109%
99%
111%
99%
100%
98%
132%
101%
155%
113%
126%
213%
87%
131%
95%
106%
156%
VT
245%
NH
86%
MA
82%
RI
158%
CT
90%
NJ
99%
DE
108%
MD
92%
DC
105%
129%
170%
86%
92%
140%
106%
111%
93%
356%
Percentage
203%
Sources: Authors calculations based on programmatic data from Federal Highway Administration, Fixing America's Surface Transportation Act or 'FAST Act,' available at
https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/fastact/funding.cfm (last accessed April 2016); Federal Transit Administration, Fiscal 2016 Apportionment Tables Full Year, available at
https://www.transit.dot.gov/funding/apportionments/fiscal-2016-apportionment-tables-full-year (last accessed April 2016); and U.S. Department of Commerce, "Table 1.
Real GDP by State, 2011-2014," available at http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/2015/xls/gsp0615.xlsx (last accessed May 2016).
The measures MAP-21 requires focus overwhelmingly on the state of repair of the
transportation system. While important, these measures fail to capture the full set of
effects that transportation facilities have on our economy, society, and environment.
A 21st century transportation system should increase economic productivity
and competitiveness; improve access to opportunity for all communities; maintain assets; reduce major injuries and fatalities; minimize effects on natural and
social environments; reduce energy consumption; and expand affordable transportation choice. In order to achieve this diverse set of goals, Congress should
expand the federal performance management framework to include measures
for each of these areas.
The following examples highlight somethough certainly not allof the performance measures that Congress should require states and regions to adopt:
Transit productivity. Transit productivity measures the ratio of ridership to
transit service. The goal of this measure is to push transit providers to improve
productivity, including service for transit-dependent communities.
Average distance to transit stops. Public transportation riders are pedestrians
at the start and end of every journey. The goal of this measure is to the average
distance to transit stops by expanding service and zoning for more development
around transit stops.
Roadway connectivity. Connectivity measures how directly the roadway
network connects destinations, often measured as a ratio of roadway segments
to intersections, with a higher number indicating greater connectivity. Less connected roadway systems effectively cause people making local trips to compete
with and impede longer-distance drivers and freight carriers because they lack
alternative route options, thereby degrading system performance. The goal of
this measure is to increase roadway connectivity
Carbon dioxide emissions from transportation. This measure estimates carbon
dioxide emissions from the transportation sector. Transportation represents the
second-largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, producing 28 percent of U.S.
emissions each year.42 The goal of this measure is to reduce total mobile-source
emissions by comparing how different infrastructure investments, land-use patterns, and vehicle fleets change overall emissions.
Per capita driving. Per capita VMT is a measure of how much driving a person
does in a year. Measuring per capita driving captures the effects of transportation
investments and land-use policies while also allowing total VMT to rise as populations increases over time. The goal of this measure is to reduce per capita driving.
Transit mode share. Transit mode share measures the percentage of all trips
that use public transportation. The goal of this measure is to increase the overall
share of trips taken by public transportation.
Funding
Funding for highway and transit programs comes from two sources: appropriations and fuel taxes. Annual appropriations fund the Transportation Investment
Generating Economic Recovery, or TIGER, program, as well as the New Starts
fixed guideway transit capital program.43 Federal excise taxes of 18.4 cents a gallon
on gasoline and 24.4 cents a gallon on diesel capitalize the Highway Trust Fund,
or HTF, which supports highway and transit formula programs.44
Congress last raised the federal excise tax on gasoline and diesel in 1995.45 Over
this time, vehicles have become substantially more fuel efficient. In effect, the
same level of driving does not produce the same amount of transportation
revenue for the HTF. As a result, Congress has had to backfill the Highway Trust
Fund since 2008 with money from the General Fund of the Treasury because fuel
tax receipts have not been sufficient to cover program outlays.46
Congress avoided raising fuel taxes as part of the most recent surface transportation authorization, the Fixing Americas Surface Transportation, or FAST, Act,
which covers FY 2016 through FY 2020. In order to cover the approximately
$14 billion annual shortfall, Congress backfilled the HTF with $70 billion in
general fund revenues.47
Given the enormous need for repair and expansion of highway and transit facilities,
Congress should increase overall HTF outlays by $25.9 billion each year over the
next 10 years. In order to offset these outlays, Congress should increase the federal
excise tax on gasoline and diesel by 15.25 cents a gallon. Each additional penny in
gas and diesel taxes generates approximately $1.7 billion in revenue for the HTF.48
The increased fuel taxes would generate approximately $25.9 billion annually. In
order to cover the remaining $15 billion annual shortfall for FY 2021 through FY
2025a $70 billion total over five yearsCongress should authorize another general fund transfer. This funding approach balances the need for users to substantially
contribute to system maintenance and expansion while recognizing that increased
investment provides broad economic benefits that justify general fund support.
In addition to additional funding, Congress should make three key reforms: First,
increase funding for competitive grant programs such as TIGER and New Starts.
These programs reward project sponsors that submit the most innovative, productive, and cost-effective projects. Second, expand local control over project selection
decisions with formula funding by increasing the share of STBG funds suballocated
to metropolitan regions. Third, provide greater transparency and accountability to
transportation governance through expanded performance management.
13 Center for American Progress | An Infrastructure Plan for America
The following policy changes and spending priorities will increase competition,
accountability, and local control, as well as address the significant maintenance
and replacement backlog.
Current tax regime
Funding for highway and transit programs comes from general appropriations
and a federal excise tax of 18.4 cents a gallon on gasoline and 24.4 cents a gallon
on diesel.
Policy reforms
Increase the share of funding suballocated to metropolitan regions from the
Surface Transportation Block Grant Program from 51 percent to 75 percent,
with no more than 15 percent of suballocated funds going to projects that
expand the number of general purpose travel lanes on the Interstate or National
Highway System
Expand the performance management program under 23 USC 150 to include
new measures for overall system accessibility; transit and nonmotorized mode
share; transportation affordability and energy consumption and greenhouse gas
emissions from the mobile sector; among others
Require that not less than 65 percent of National Highway Performance
Program, or NHPP, funds support rehabilitation, repair, and replacement
projects and allow NHPP funds to support bridge repair projects anywhere on
the federal-aid highway system
Tax reform and investments
Raise the federal excise tax on gas and diesel by 15.25 cents a gallon to 33.65
cents and 39.65 cents a gallon, respectively
Transfer an additional $70 billion to the Highway Trust Fund to cover the
anticipated shortfall for FY 2021 through FY 2026
Increase annual Highway Trust Fund outlays for highway and transit formula
programs by $25.9 billion
Increase annual funding for the New Starts program from $2.3 billion to $4
billion
Increase annual funding for the Transportation Investment Generating
Economic Recovery grant program from $500 million to $1 billion
The financial relief of removing passenger service requirements proved insufficient to resuscitate failed freight railroads. In 1973, Congress established a
government-owned railroad corporation known as Conrail that appropriated
failed rail operations in the Northeast, including the tract that would become
the Northeast Corridor, or NEC. Finally, in 1976, Congress passed the Railroad
Revitalization and Regulatory Reform Act, which authorized Amtrak to purchase the NEC from Conraileffectively transferring this valuable asset from
one government corporation to another.53
Amtraks takeover of the NEC, which stretches 457 miles from Washington, D.C.,
to Boston, came with a downside: The neglected facility needed substantial investment.54 Unfortunately, Congress has provided insufficient capital funding, typically
just enough to ensure the corridor continues to operate but not enough to address
major capacity and structural challenges. Even with limited capital support, Amtrak
manages to provide essential rail service in the most heavily populated and congested region of the United States. Each day, more than 2,200 trains use a portion of
the corridor.55 Ridership along the corridor has increased by 37 percent since 2000.56
In 2015, Amtrak carried 11.7 million passengers on the NEC mainline.57
In 2014, the Northeast Corridor Infrastructure and Operations Advisory
Commission estimated that the NEC will require approximately $13 billion
to reach a state of good repair.58 In order to accommodate travel demand and
population growth, the corridor will require an addition $30 billion for capacity
expansion projects.59
These investments would not only provide benefits to rail passengers but also
highway drivers and flyers. For instance, in 2001, Amtrak accounted for just 37
percent of the total air and rail travel between Washington, D.C., and New York
City.60 By 2011, Amtrak accounted for 75 percent of the combined total, meaning ridership growth dramatically outpaced growth in aviation between these
two major cities.61 Over this same period, Amtraks share of combined rail and air
travel between New York City and Boston increased from 20 percent to 54 percent.62 This is especially important, as the New York metropolitan region has some
of the worst aviation congestion and delays in the nation.63 By providing travelers with a safe and efficient alternative, Amtrak alleviates demand for short-haul
flights that clog the skies over the Northeast.
ing tunnel capacity would eliminate 22,000 auto trips and 590,000
Beyond intercity trips, the NEC supports local commuter rail service
Another critical yet aging link is the Portal Bridge, which crosses
66
regions lie within the NEC: New York City, Washington, D.C., and Phila-
delphia. Taken together, drivers in these three cities face 880 million
When the bridge cannot swing back into place, it causes delays
67
along the entire NEC as trains await bridge repairs.75 Amtraks longterm plan is to replace the existing portal bridge with two two-track
Yet, for all the benefits the NEC provides, the corridor faces enormous
challenges. Three crucial projects highlight the capital needs facing the
The most significant barrier to improving rail service along the NEC
is the more than 100-year-old North River Tunnels that connect Wee-
were constructed in 1873just eight years after the end of the Civil
War.77 The tunnels serve as a critical link on the NEC, connecting the
main line tracks to Baltimores Penn Station. Each day, 143 passenger
trains and two freight trains use the tunnels.78 The tunnels serve
each weekday.68 During the morning and evening peak period, each
commuter trains, as well as Norfolk Southern freight trains.79 B&P tunnel design, including tight curves, limits train speeds to just 30 miles
The tunnels are rapidly reaching the end of their useful life and
per hour.80 This significantly reduces the number of trains that can
Amtrak must close them frequently for inspection and repair. Su-
move through the corridor per hour, limiting overall capacity. Amtrak
the tunnels to flood with millions of gallons of salt water, which left
behind sulfide and chloride residue and caused significant damage to the concrete tunnel liner and conduits that house critical
double the number of Amtrak and NJ Transit trains that could travel
Amtrak service also helps to reduce the already overburdened I-95 corridor. In
fact, using a highway travel demand forecasting model, the Northeast Corridor
Infrastructure and Operations Advisory Commission determined that without
investment and expansion of the NEC, the number of highway miles operating at 27
mph or less during peak periods will increase from 165 miles to 474 miles by 2035.64
The Northeast Corridor is not the only corridor in desperate need of investment.
In fact, outside of the Northeast, Amtraks rail service operates on private freight
rail tracks. This overlap in facility use means that freight rail bottlenecks also cause
problems for passenger service. Conversely, growing demand for passenger rail
service places pressure on already strained freight operations. The Chicago region
demonstrates the challenges that both sectors face.
Chicago has served as a freight and passenger rail hub for nearly 150 years. The
region includes 78 rail yards and 2,800 route-miles of track, which carry, on
average, 500 freight trains and 760 passenger trains each day.83 Approximately
37,500 rail cars, or one-quarter of all freight rail traffic nationally, flow through
the Chicago region each day.84 Unfortunately, the regions suffers from significant
rail bottlenecks. The average rail car requires nearly 30 hours to travel through
Chicago.85 Moreover, many of the lines have at-grade crossings with local roadways, causing substantial vehicle delays, which lead to lost productivity and
increased vehicle idling and air pollution.
Given the importance of freight, passenger, and commuter rail service to the
region, the state of Illinois, the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning, the
Chicago Department of Transportation, the U.S. Department of Transportation,
and rail operators have formed a unique partnership to tackle the problem of
rail congestion and roadway delay. Together, these agencies and operators have
developed a long-term plan to reduce at-grade crossings and expand overall
capacity known as the Chicago Region Environmental and Transportation
Efficiency, or CREATE program.
The CREATE program consists of 70 projects, including six rail-rail grade
separations; 25 road-rail grade separations; and 36 other improvements to signal
systems, tracks, and switches.86 Once completed, CREATE will save drivers
approximately 3,800 hours in wait times each day. The combination of reduced
wait times and improved train operating efficiency will save 3.4 million gallons of
diesel fuel each year.87 Reducing diesel fuel consumption will also remove 36,000
metric tons of carbon dioxide, 155 metric tons of nitrogen oxide, and 5 metric
tons of particulate matter each year.88
Rail congestion in Chicago also negatively affects Amtrak and Metra commuter
rail passengers. Each year, Metra and Amtrak serve 36 million and 2.6 million riders, respectively. The CREATE program will reduce total annual delay for Metra
and Amtrak riders by an estimated 817,000 hours.89
Eliminating at-grade crossings in urban areas is only one aspect of rail investment needs. Freight bottlenecks produce conflicts between intercity passenger
and cargo traffic that result in delays and poor overall service quality. Amtraks
Wolverine Line, which provides service between Detroit and Chicago, is another
excellent example of the benefits that result from investment.
Currently, Amtrak operates three round trips each day along the 300-mile route
between Chicago and Detroit/Pontiac, Michigan.90 Unfortunately, this route
includes the single most delay-prone corridor in the nation. The 29-mile stretch of
track owned by Norfolk Southern between Porter, Indiana, and the Indiana-Illinois
state line struggles to handle 14 Amtrak trains and approximately 85 freight trains
each day.91 This congestion produces delays that often result in the Wolverine Line
having the worst on-time performance of any Amtrak route in the nation.92
Investing in upgrades along the corridor would have a dramatic impact on frequency,
travel times, and overall ridership. Moreover, a substantial share of the increased
ridership would come from people who would otherwise drive. Initial estimates are
that doubling the number of daily round trips and reducing travel times by 1 hour
and 44 minutes, or 30 percent, will increase ridership by more than 500 percent,
or to 2.8 million, by 2035.93 Travel demand models estimate that 54 percent of this
ridership will come from car diversion and 10 percent from air diversion.94
Projects such as CREATE and the Wolverine Line highlight the substantial
benefits that rail investments produce in both overall economic productivity and
mobility. These projects also highlight an important aspect of rail infrastructure
that is different from other sectors: Freight rail assets are mostly privately owned.
For this reason, in addition to the NEC, the Federal Railroad Administration, or
FRA, should limit future investments in infrastructure controlled by private companies to projects that deliver co-benefits to Amtrak and commuter rail providers.
In addition, FRA should invest in projects that produce clear positive externalities
that are not captured by private railroads and, as a result, are not a priority. As the
Chicago region demonstrates, freight traffic causes major delays on arterial roadways due to at-grade crossings. These delays not only affect traffic but also result
in lost economic productivity. These negative consequences, however, are not a
factor in the capital planning of private railroads because the economic benefits of
separating rail and roadway grades do not accrue to the company. For this reason,
FRA should prioritize rail investments that offer substantial returns on investment
to the public and not merely pecuniary gain for the railroad.
In order to substantially address the major state-of-good-repair backlog along the
NEC and to meet the growing demand for passenger rail service, Congress should
increase overall funding for rail infrastructure. In addition, Congress should
remove the uncertainty surrounding annual funding for Amtrak by establishing a
rail account within the HTF. This would provide dedicated annual operations and
capital funding. Furthermore, it would allow FRA to sign full funding grant agreements with Amtrak and other rail project sponsors, allowing for much greater
certainty around capital project planning and financing.
Policy reforms
Establish a rail account within the Highway Trust Fund to provide dedicated
annual funding for operating assistance for Amtrak, as well as capital repair and
expansion projects for Amtrak and other passenger rail providers
Require the Federal Railroad Administration to sign full funding grant agreements with rail project sponsors to provide stability and predictability for multiyear capital projects over $100 million in cost
Rename the Highway Trust Fund the Transportation Trust Fund to reflect its
comprehensive role in surface transportation investment
Aviation
In 1903 the Wright brothers made history in Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, with
12 seconds of powered flight.95 In those few seconds, modern aviation was born.
Things have changed dramatically since then. Today, aviation contributes $1.3
trillion to the U.S. economy, or 5.2 percent of GDP.96 The industry is also a major
source of employment, generating more than 10 million jobs.97
Aviation consists of two major public-sector infrastructure components: air traffic
control and airports. The Federal Aviation Administration, or FAA, owns and
operates the air traffic control systems, which includes airport towers and thousands of other smaller facilities and pieces of equipment that together form an
integrated network capable of managing our national airspace system. In fact, the
FAA employs more than 14,000 air traffic controllers at 317 facilities across the
country.98 Airports, by comparison, are typically independent public authorities
governed by an appointed board with the power to issue debt and collect fees and
other taxes to finance capital and operational expenses.
In the coming years, both the federal government and airport authorities must
make substantial investments to ensure the system can safely and efficiently handle growing aviation travel demand. In 2014, commercial airlines carried 662 million passengers on 8.1 million domestic flights.99 This translates to approximately
23,000 scheduled commercial flights a day.100 As significant as these numbers are,
commercial aviation represents only one-third of the daily flights that air traffic
controllers have to handle. When military, general aviation, and taxi flights are
added, the daily total climbs to more than 87,000.101 Air traffic controllers must
handle approximately 64 million takeoffs and landings per year.102 At any given
moment, roughly 5,000 airplanes are in the sky above the United States.103
The FAA estimates that that domestic aviation demand will climb from 889 billion
revenue passenger miles, or RPMs, in 2015 to 1.53 trillion RPMs by 2036.104 This
translates to a compound annual growth of approximately 2.5 percent.105
In 2003, Congress passed legislation directing the FAA to transition from an
antiquated ground-based radar system to a modern satellite-based system of
navigation and control known as the Next Generation Air Transportation
System, or NextGen, by 2025.106 While the current system is the safest in the
world, ground-based radar has significant limitations that result in flight delays,
inefficient routes, and wasted fuel. Implementing NextGen air traffic control
systems and procedures is essential to ensuring the U.S. air transport system
remains productive and efficient. Without the NextGen upgrade, aviation congestion will cost the economy $22 billion in lost economic activity each year by
2022 and $40 billion annually by 2033.107
The benefits of upgrading the air traffic control systems are enormous. The FAA
estimates that NextGen improvements will generate $134 billion in economic
benefits by 2030.108 The cost of NextGen implementation over the next 15 years
will total $39 billion.109 The federal government and industry will approximately
split this cost. The government will cover the cost of improvements to public
infrastructure while carriers and private owners and operators are responsible
for making significant upgrades to onboard avionics systems. After applying a
discount rate to account for the timing of both economic benefits and costs, the
overall benefit-to-cost ratio is more than 3-to-1.110 The business case for investment is clear, but implementation presents significant challenges. Moreover, the
FAA does not control the pace of technological adoption by industry.111
To better understand the source of inefficiency and delay, it helps to review
how the FAA manages aviation traffic today. Controllers rely principally on
ground-based radar and a three-stage process for tracking and directing air
traffic. The process begins with personnel at airport traffic control towers, or
ATCT, who direct both ground movements and the first few thousand feet of
ascent. Second, ATCT controllers hand off outbound flights to personnel at
facilities known as terminal radar approach control, or TRACON. Controllers at
TRACON facilities handle the congested airspace in the vicinity of the airport
up to an altitude of 10,000 feet. Third, TRACON facilities hand off outbound
flights to controllers at air route traffic control centers, or ARTCC. These controllers handle what is termed en route airspace, which includes final ascent
and the portion of the flight at cruising altitude.112 The process repeats itself in
reverse as a flight approaches its arrival airport.
Tracking and controlling aircraft using data from ground-based radar limits how efficiently the FAA can use air space. In order to ensure safety, the FAA requires planes
to maintain ample separation distances. Once implemented, NextGen will provide
highly accurate, near real-time data to pilots without recourse to controllers on the
ground. With more accurate information, NextGen will allow planes to fly safely in
closer proximity. This is especially important in heavily traveled regions.
Current air
traffic control
Airport control tower, or
ATCT: Handles final approach
and takeoff up to 3,000 feet
Terminal radar control, or
TRACON: Handles aircraft up
to 10,000 feet in the vicinity of
the arrival or departure airport
Air route traffic control
center, or ARTCC: Handles
aircraft at cruising altitude en
route to final destination, as
national airspace is broken into
three-dimensional sectors with
one controller responsible for
each sector
Ground-based radar also suffers from coverage limitations, meaning that over
certain areas or under a certain altitude, air traffic controllers cannot track airplanes. For instance, ground-based radar cannot track planes over much of the
Gulf of Mexico since coverage extends only 200 miles off shore.113 This means that
flights to Florida from the West Coast must follow an indirect route to stay within
the coverage of the radar system.114 When severe weather arises, flights must often
take circuitous alternative routes that allow them to miss the storm but also stay
within the radar coverage area. This adds time, burns more fuel, and can force
missed connections, as well as other lost productivity.
Early federal investments in NextGen systems allow airplanes equipped with the
GPS-based navigation technology known as automated dependent surveillancebroadcast, or ADS-B, to take a direct route across the Gulf of Mexico. These planes
constantly transmit their altitude, air speed, and direction to radio stations installed
on offshore oil rigs that in turn transmit the information to air traffic controllers.
Takeoff and landing are other areas where NextGen technology will allow for
greater efficiency. Currently, as planes approach for landing, they cannot simply
set a glide path and smoothly descend. Instead they must drop and plateau
multiple times to slow the process and allow for coordination between air traffic controllers. The graduated approach to landing ensures a safe handoff from
ARTCC to TRACON and from TRACON to ATCT. By comparison, airplanes
with fully NextGen-compliant avionics and airports with upgraded facilities
will be able to direct planes to take off and land smoothly, thus saving significant
fuel. The FAA estimates that NextGen upgrades will reduce total delay, in flight
and on the ground, by about 35 percent and save about 1.4 billion gallons of
aviation fuel by 2018, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 14 million tons.115
The environmental, safety, and efficiency benefits of NextGen will only increase
with full implementation.
Every two years, the FAA publishes an airport capital-needs assessment known
as the National Plan for Integrated Airport Systems, or NPIAS. The FAA
develops the NPIAS needs estimate by reviewing all projects listed within the
five-year capital plans at the 3,345 public-use airports around the nation. The
NPIAS only counts projects that are Airport Improvement Program, or AIP,
eligible but that have not yet signed an AIP agreement or secured other funding.
The AIP is the program the FAA uses to support the planning and development
of public-use airports around the nation. Each year, AIP distributes more than
$3.3 billion in funding.125
116
117
metropolitan areas that often have more than one major airport
generating traffic.124
the country that have a fixed location. The FAA is able to use these
towers to capture traditional GPS signals and correct for any errors in
basis.
120
both air traffic controllers and pilots have such reliable, accurate, and
timely location information, they are to reduce aircraft spacing.
121
those present at DFW will permeate the entire national airspace sys-
Overall, FAA estimates that public-use airports have $33.5 billion in unfunded
needs over the next five years.126 The NPIAS estimate tends to fluctuate for two
reasons. First, as projects secure funding, the FAA removes them from the report.
Second, the aviation sector is highly responsive to economic cycles, causing airports to delay projects beyond the five-year report horizon in response to changes
in travel demand. Even with these fluctuations, the NPIAS report demonstrates
substantial unmet capital needs across the country.
Three broad factors drive overall airport capital project needs: current and future
travel demand; the age of existing facilities; and changes in aircraft design and size.127
Airports, like other sectors, face challenges in keeping their facilities in a state of
good repair. Overall, unmet capital project needs are substantially weighted to repair,
rehabilitation, and reconstruction. The NPIAS estimates that 79 percent of capital
needs are for state of good repair, while 21 percent are for new capacity.128
Capital needs are concentrated at the 29 large hub airports around the country. Together, these airportswhile a small percentage of overall public-access
airportsaccount for 71 percent of all passenger boardings.129 Their capital-needs
account for $8 billion, or 25 percent, of the $33.5 billion identified. At these
airports, capacity expansion is the largest development category, outpacing repair,
rehabilitation, and reconstruction.
Fully implementing NextGen and expanding airport capacity will require substantial funding and key policy changes. Federal aviation programs, including
NextGen and airport capital projects, are supported with a mix of general fund
revenues and aviation taxes that capitalize the Airport and Airways Trust Fund, or
AATF. The other major source of aviation tax revenue comes from a charge levied
by airports on enplaning passengers called the passenger facility charge, or PFC.
Depending on the year, the AATF covers between 80 percent and 93 percent of
the overall FAA budget of approximately $16 billion.135 Yet, many of the taxes that
support federal aviation programs have not kept pace with inflation. For instance,
the 4.3 cents per gallon excise tax on commercial jet fuel was set in 1995.136 Since
1995, the commercial jet fuel tax has lost 50 percent of its purchasing power due
to inflation when measured against the Office of Management and Budget GDP
deflator. Today, the taxs effective value is only 2.2 cents.137
131
to data collected by the FAA, in 2003the base year for the capacity
19.3 minutes under the no build scenario to just 5.2 minutes, which
minutes or more to be severe. The study determined that without additional capacity, the airport would experience operational delays of more
than 19 minutes by 2025.
132
cepted threshold that pushes air carriers to halt service expansion plans.
Yet, for all the benefits to the region and national airspace from these
improvements, the PHL program is anticipated to take 15 years to
completeassuming airport revenues and bond market financing
meet plan projections. With additional AIP grant funding and an
increase in the passenger facility charge, PHL could deliver this pro-
Similarly, the passenger ticket tax, which Congress set in 1997 at 7.5 percent of
the value of the ticket, has also not kept pace.138 For instance, in constant dollar
terms, the average commercial ticket in 1997 was 9 percent more expensive than
the same ticket today. As a result, while the passenger ticket tax brings in more revenue in nominal terms than in previous years, it is providing dollars that have less
overall purchasing power.
Beyond the issue of lost purchasing power, commercial airlines have also restructured their business model to avoid paying taxes on a large portion of their
revenue. When Congress established the first ticket tax in 1941, airlines collected
almost all their revenue from tickets sales. However, in recent years, the industry
has moved aggressively to charge passengers ancillary fees that are not subject to
the ticket tax. Ancillary revenues include baggage charges, a la carte food sales,
seat upgrades, and flight changes.139
26 Center for American Progress | An Infrastructure Plan for America
In 1995, airlines collected only $128 million in ancillary revenues.140 By 2014, the
most recent year for which data is available, airlines collected $9.6 billion.141 In
constant 2014 dollars, this translates to an increase of more than 5,000 percent.142
If the 2014 ancillary revenue were subject to the current domestic ticket tax, it
would generate more than $720 million each year.143
At the local level, airports are permitted to levy the PFC on every enplaning
passenger for the first two flight segments. Currently, participating airports may
charge up to $4.50 per enplaning passenger.144 Congress last raised the PFC cap
in 2000. Since that time, the PFC has lost 38 percent of its purchasing power due
to inflation when measured against the Office of Management and Budget GDP
deflator. Today, the PFCs effective value is only $2.81.145
In addition to more funding, the FAA needs greater flexibility to prioritize
investments at the most congested and capacity-constrained airports around the
country. As the NPIAS report demonstrates, major capital project needs are concentrated at large hug commercial airports.
Under current law, 75 percent to 80 percent of AIP funds are distributed based
on formulas that account for the number of passenger boardings and air cargo
volumes at each airport.146 Airports that choose to levy a PFC of more than $3 per
boarding passenger forfeit 75 percent of their formula AIP funds.147 These funds
are then redistributed to smaller airports. The FAA distributes the remaining 20
percent to 25 percent of AIP funds on a discretionary basis, with some requirements that they choose certain types of projects such as capacity, safety, security,
and noise.148 The FAA needs to be able to distribute a larger share of AIP funds on
a discretionary basis and airport authorities should retain a larger share of the AIP
entitlement funds even if they levy a PFC charge more than $3.
Congress should enact the following tax and policy changes to provide the FAA with
the resources and flexibility necessary to support airports and the aviation sector
through expanded grant making and the rapid deployment of NextGen technologies. In addition, by raising the cap on PFCs, airportsespecially the most congested large hub airportswill have the financial resources needed to undertake
major rehabilitation, reconstruction, and expansion projects. At the same time,
smaller airports will benefit from increased formula outlays from the AIP program in
order to ensure they are able to provide high-quality aviation facilities and services.
Policy reforms
Require airport authorities that raise their Passenger Facility Charge above
$4.50 to spend not less than 15 percent of revenues on environmental mitigation and sustainability projects
Reduce the share of Airport Improvement Program entitlement funds that airports must return to the Airport and Airways Trust Fund in exchange for levying
a Passenger Facility Charge above $3 from 75 percent to 65 percent
Levy the domestic passenger ticket tax against all ancillary commercial airlines
revenues, including baggage fees, cancellation fees, food service, and other passenger charges
Set aside not less than half of increased Airport Improvement Program outlays
as discretionary funds in support of letter of intent and other significant airport
development projects
From this modest beginning, inland waterways and ports have become essential
elements of our national freight transportation system. Today, the U.S. inland
waterway system consists of 12,000 miles of river channels, including 236 lock
chambers at 171 lock sites.150 In addition, the United States has more than 300
commercial sea and river ports with more than 3,700 cargo and passenger terminals.151 In 2013, the most recent year for which data is available, U.S. ports and
waterways carried 808 million tons or cargo with a value of $284 billion.152
Flood control
Beyond waterborne cargo, the USACE provides critical protection against the threat
of flooding. Across the nation, there are more than 100,000 miles of levees, which
the Army Corps defines as an earthen embankment or concrete flood wall designed
to contain, control, or divert the flow of water so as to provide reasonable assurance of excluding temporary flooding from the leveed area.153Preventing flooding
in urban and rural areas saves countless lives and the economy billions of dollars
each year. The Army Corps estimates that, in 2011 alone, levee systems prevented
$120 billion in economic losses.154 Recent hurricanes and major storms demonstrate
the potential for flooding to cause catastrophic economic losses, as well as the loss
of life. Hurricane Katrina produced as estimated $200 billion in economic losses.155
More recently, Hurricane Sandy caused more than $50 billion in damages and lost
productivity in the New York metropolitan region.156
Unfortunately, the national system of flood control faces two major challenges.
First, policymakers lack adequate information about the state of levees around the
country. The lack of comprehensive information on the location, design, and state
of repair of these facilities hampers Congress ability to design sensible flood control
policy. According to a 2009 report by the National Committee on Levee Safety, The
current levee safety reality for the United States is starkuncertainty in location,
performance and condition of levees and a lack of oversight, technical standards,
and effective communication of risks.157 To repair and improve levees around the
country is anticipated to cost government at all levels and private levee owners at
least $100 billion, according to the National Committee on Levee Safety.158
The vast majority of levees around the country are state or locally owned and controlled. In fact, the Army Corps monitors only 14,500 miles of levees, or approximately 10 percent of the estimated national total.159 Of those levees monitored
by the Army Corps, the results are sobering. The Army Corps found that only 8
percent are in acceptable condition, 70 percent are minimally acceptable, and 22
percent of levees are unacceptable.160
30 Center for American Progress | An Infrastructure Plan for America
Second, states often lack formal levee safety programs. Moreover, even those states
that have a handle on the extent of levee facilities within their borders have inadequate fiscal resources to ensure proper maintenance and rehabilitation. Unlike
other infrastructure sectors, such as drinking water, wastewater and highways, the
federal government does not provide dedicated annual funding to state and local
governments for ongoing levee identification, monitoring, and repair.161
Instead, states wishing to advance a major rehabilitation or improvement project have just two options: finance the entire project with state resources or seek
partial federal funding. Yet, federal funding is not guaranteed and states must work
through a lengthy legislative authorization process. First, the state or local project sponsor must secure an authorization for a project study as part of the Army
Corps reauthorization legislation known as the Water Resources Development
Act, or WRDA, which happens roughly every two years.162 Next, the study must
receive appropriations funding. Once the study has been completed and the Army
Corps has determined that the project meets the standard of having a clear federal
interestthat the project will contribute to national economic development by
increasing the output of goods and servicesit must then receive a second congressional authorization and funding before beginning construction.163
This lengthy and uncertain route often limits the pace and extent of work, as
states must repeat this process for each project. By comparison, a program
that offered states dedicated formula funding each year to monitor, repair, and
improve levee facilities would not only provide additional financial resources
to states but also allow for more programmatic approaches to levee system
improvement. A levee safety formula program would not absolve states of the
responsibility to conform to the requirements laid out in 33 USC 408often
simply referred to as section 408that any levee modifications not adversely
harm upstream or downstream communities and habitats.
In 2014, Congress authorized the creation of two levee safety programs as part of the
WRDA. The first is called the Levee Safety Initiative. The ultimate goal of the initiative is for states to collect comprehensive data on all levee facilities, including their
location, structural characteristics, and hazard potential. The second is called the
Levee Rehabilitation Assistance Program. This program is designed to provide project-level funding to states in order to help cover a portion of the cost of rehabilitation and repair of specific state, local, or tribally controlled levee facilities. Congress
authorized annual funding for the two programs at $25 million and $30 million,
respectively. To date, Congress has not provided any appropriations funding.172
Corps has an estimated total cost of $1.19 billion.168 The new elements
sion, among others.169 When all the work is completed it will improve
Ocean via the San Pablo and San Francisco Bays. The water system is
Most of the region sits just 15 feet to 30 feet above sea level. And a
few sections of Sacramento lie below the river level, making recov-
Sacramento region and other areas in California also face the possibil-
California has agreed to cover 28 percent and local residents and busi-
For the regions 1.4 million residents, levees are an essential element of
flood protection, reducing the risk of major loss of life and property.165
The risks from flooding are not theoretical. Major floods in 1986 and
for Army Corps. With no knowledge of how much money Congress will
provide from one year to the next, the Army Corps struggles to let con-
the west side of the Sacramento River and to the east of the Sacra-
Congress first authorized a more modest set of flood control projects for West Sacramento in 1992 and then followed this up with a
subsequent authorization in 1999. Since 1996, Congress has provided
Working with the Army Corps, the West Sacramento Area Flood
a total just $34.5 million.171 Yet, in 7 of the past 10 years, Congress pro-
167
In December of
At this rate, it would take 455 years for Congress to appropriate the
While these two programs recognize that states need assistance with levee safety,
they are inadequate to the task. Congress should make participating in the Levee
Safety Initiative program mandatory. Furthermore, Congress should set a deadline
by which states must submit information to the National Levee Database on all
levees within their boundaries. In addition, Congress should establish a formula
program to provide states with $350 million in dedicated annual funding in order
to cover a portion of the cost of documenting every levee and making major
repairs and improvements. Importantly, states would still be able to work through
the legislative authorization and appropriations process for megaprojects beyond
the scope of annual funding.173
Water transport
The U.S. system of water transportation faces three major challenges: aging facilities, insufficient capacity, and inadequate funding. Many critical pieces of infrastructure have reached the end of their useful life and need substantial repair or
replacement. At the same time, even facilities that have many years of useful life
left face increasing freight volumes that strain capacity, as well as changing industry economics that have pushed container ships to ever larger sizes. To maintain
the nations federal navigable coastal and inland waterways, nearly 230 million
cubic yards of material are dredged annually.174
The inland waterway system carried 600 million tons of cargo in 2014.175 This
represents approximately 5 percent of total commercial tonnage in the United States
on an annual basis.176 Research from the National Waterways Foundation found the
inland waterways system supports close to 550,000 domestic jobs, resulting in $29
billion income and $125 billion in economic output annually.177 The Army Corps
annual expenditures of $1.13 billion on inland waterways in FY 2015 reduced
freight costs by $12.5 billion, a return of $11 for every $1 in expenditures.178
A review of the inland waterway systems reveals that many locks and dams were
built in first half of the 20th century with a 50-year lifespan.179 The current average
age of the nations locks and dam complexes is above 50 years, even after factoring
in major rehabilitations.180 Older locks have more frequent maintenance issues,
which costs users both time and money. Throughout the system, there were nearly
136,000 combined hours of both scheduled and unscheduled downtime where
locks were unavailable for use, creating commercial freight bottlenecks and hurting overall economic activity.181
its origins in West Virginia, where it joins with the Allegheny River
182
An average of 12 mil-
lion tons of cargo passes through the locks of the Lower Monongahela each year.
183
The river is made navigable for barge traffic by six locks and dams
Located less than 20 miles north of St. Louis on the Upper Mississippi
River, the Melvin Price Locks and Dam opened in 1989.189 Each year,
184
levee. Underseepage is a structural issue with the sand and gravel be-
neath a levee. Water pressure from the Mississippi River pushes sand
and gravel to the other side of the levee. If enough sand and gravel is
185
186
The Lower
FY 2017.
187
The U.S. seaport system includes more than 1,000 ports and harbors located on
the coasts and in the Great Lakes.190 Congress mandates that the Army Corps
of Engineers keep specific harbor channels in coastal and Great Lakes ports
navigable through maintenance of jetties and breakwatersbarriers that jut out
from land that reduce the intensity of waves from open watersand dredging activities. Commercial cargo activity is heavily concentrated in a few major
port complexes. In fact, approximately 90 percent of waterborne cargo passes
through just 59 ports.191
Port authorities, working with state and local agencies, are responsible for the
development of all landside facilities. The Army Corps is mandated to cover 100
percent of the cost of maintaining high-volume port channels to a depth of 45 feet.
If a port authority wishes to deepen its channel beyond 45 feet, they must split any
additional costs with the Army Corps.192
In 2008, the most recent year for which complete data is available, the Army
Corps found that commercial shipping channels at the 59 busiest ports functioned
at their full width and depth just 30 percent of the time.193 The lack of adequately
maintained channels often limits the ability of ports to engage in commercial
activity, as vessels must wait for tides to change in order to make a port call.
At the same time, many portsespecially along the Gulf and Atlantic coastsare
actively working to deepen their channels to accommodate the substantially larger
ships that will begin arriving in significant numbers now that the expanded Panama
Canal has officially opened to commercial traffic.194 The Panama Canal is now able
to accommodate vessels with up to 13,000 to 14,000 20-foot equivalent units, or
TEUs, which is a standard measurement for shipping containers.195
While channel dredging projects generate a great deal of attention, navigation is only
one of the challenges facing large commercial ports. These complexes also have significant landside infrastructure, connectivity, and environmental remediation needs.
According to the EPA, more than 40 commercial ports around the country are
located in communities that are in nonattainment or maintenance status for ozone
and particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns.204 Ports generate significant pollution from both the ships that continue to run their engines in order to provide power
to ship systems, as well as from trucks used for drayage operationshigh-frequency,
short-haul truck trips that move shipping containers from port complexes to local
freight rail yards or storage facilities. These operations increase harmful air pollution
in the communities that surround port complexes.205
Port of Charleston
The South Carolina Ports Authority owns and operates the Port of Charleston, with locations in the Charleston Harbor and along the Cooper and Wando rivers. Charlestons
harbor channel is currently 45 feet deep. This is important because channel depth is
one of the controlling factors limiting the size of vessels that may call on a port. At
its current depth, the Charleston Harbor can accommodate vessels with a 50-foot
draft but only during high tide. As a result, the harbor is only able to handle 11 postPanamax shipsvessels that are larger than the previous maximum size able to travel
through the Panama Canalper week.196
In 2014, the Port of Charleston handled cargo with a total value of $71 billion, making
it the seventh-highest port in the nation by value.197 Also, in 2014, the most recent
year for which data is available, the port handled 19.8 million tons of cargo, making it
the 32nd-largest port by volume in the U.S.198
The automobile industry is a top user of the Port of Charleston.199 The expensive
nature of some auto parts contributes to the ports higher ranking by value than by
volume. The automaker Volvo has announced plans to build an assembly plant north
of Charleston by 2018, which will further boost port activity and the auto industrys
impact.200
A new dredging project, which is slated to begin in at the end of 2017, will increase
the harbor channel depth to 52 feet, making Charleston the deepest East Coast
port.201 The port anticipates completing the first phase of dredging to the Wando
terminal by 2020.202 The deeper channel will allow the harbor to handle more postPanamax vessels, including during low tide. The estimated total project cost is $521
million. To date, South Carolina has set aside $300 million in funding. The remaining
$180 million is anticipated to come from the federal government through the Army
Corps.203 However, the project still must receive an authorization for construction
within the next WRDA bill, as well as separate annual appropriations funding. The
uncertainty over both the project authorization and funding could push back the start
of the dredging.
Charleston is just one of the ports on the East Coast that needs substantial dredging
in order to accommodate post-Panamax vessels.
As post-Panamax vessels begin calling on ports along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts
in significant numbers, they will place pressure on port authorities to invest in taller
cranes, longer docks, larger container storage operations, and better connectivity
with the surrounding highway and rail networks, among other improvements. Many
port complexes lack the fiscal capacity to make needed improvements. Furthermore,
the highly competitive and mobile nature of shipping means that environmental
remediation projects are often seen as additional costs that hurt port growth. For
these reasons, Congress should establish a nationally competitive port development
program to provide $200 million each year for expansion and environmental remediation projects. At least half of these funds should address environmental effects
from port complexesthough remediation work should not be limited to the
boundaries of the port. This could take the form of on-dock electrification to allow
ships to plug into the electrical grid rather than running their engines to generate
electricity or purchasing cleaner trucks for drayage operations, among many other
possible options to reduce port environmental impacts.
Funding
Funding for flood control and navigation projects comes from a combination of
general appropriations and two trust funds: the Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund,
or HMTF, and the Inland Waterways Trust Fund, or IWTF.
Each year, the Army Corps spends a little more than $2 billion for nondisaster repair
flood control projects.206 This funding comes through the annual energy and water
appropriations bill. In order to address the backlog of maintenance, major repair, and
improvement projects, Congress should establish a new formula program supported
by general fund appropriations to provide states with a total of $350 million each
year. This funding would be in addition to the money the Army Corps currently
spends on flood control. The distribution of levee formula dollars would be based
on a combination of factors, including the total miles of levees, populations living in
leveed areas, and the potential for economic loss from a major flooding event.
The IWTF was first authorized by the Inland Waterways Revenue Act of 1978.207
Capitalization of the trust fund comes from a tax of 29 cents a gallon on barge
fuel.208 All funds appropriated out of the trust fund are used to cover the construction, replacement, rehabilitation, and expansion of federal waterways
projects, including locks and dams along major navigable waterways, such as the
Mississippi River and its tributaries.209
facilities. The lack of comprehensive data limits policy options, and the Army
Corps simply lacks the resources to support states as they attempt to inventory
their levee facilities and make needed improvements.
These challenges call for a significant increase in federal investment in navigation and flood control. The following policy and funding changes would boost
spending and ensure that federal funds advance projects that provide a high
return on investment.
Current tax regime
The Inland Waterways Trust Fund is capitalized by a tax of 29 cents per gallon
on barge fuel.
The Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund is capitalized by a tax of $1.25 per $1,000
of assessed cargo or cruise ticket value.
Flood control projects are funded through annual appropriations legislation
using general fund revenues.
Policy reforms
Navigation
Move the Inland Waterways and Harbor Maintenance trust funds off budget
so that they are treated as mandatory budget authority
Establish a port development grant program within the U.S. Maritime
Administration to provide $200 million annual for landside projects in order
to ensure that ports are prepared to handle post-Panamax vessels, as well as
projects to improve port sustainability
Flood control
Require state participation with the Levee Safety Initiative and require that
states identify and assess all levees within their borders by 2026
Replace the Levee Safety Initiative and Levee Rehabilitation Assistance
Program with an $350 formula program to support levee assessment, rehabilitation, and improvement
Taxes and investments
Offset the approximately $16.2 billion cost of moving the Inland Waterways and
Harbor Maintenance trust funds off budget through tax reform
Raise the excise tax on barge fuel from 29 cents a gallon to 39.2 cents a gallon total
Raise the ad valorem cargo tax from $1.25 per $1,000 of cargo value to $1.69 per
$1,000 of cargo value
Increase annual outlays from the Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund from $1.14
billion to $2.25 billion*
39 Center for American Progress | An Infrastructure Plan for America
Increase annual outlays from the Inland Waterways Trust Fund from $69 million
to $132 million
The threat of lead from drinking water is also not a uniform problem. Some states
and communities have a much higher prevalence of lead lines and a higher risk of
lead levels crossing federal limits, which can eventually result in a health hazard.
For this reason, Congress should establish within the EPA a nationally competitive lead line replacement program. This program would provide grants to water
authorities, with priority for communities facing the greatest risk and those that
are economically disadvantaged. Moreover, the EPA should have the flexibility to
require that up to 25 percent of a project grant be set aside to assist homeowners
with low- or zero-interest loans to finance the cost of replacing the portion of lead
service lines that belong to the homeowner.
Survey research by the American Water Works Association, or AWWA, reveals
that there are approximately 6.1 million lead service lines in need of replacement.227 These service lines connect to an estimated 11,200 community water
systems. AWWA research estimates that 15 million to 22 million people live in
homes served by partial or full lead service lines. This represents about 7 percent
of the total population served by community water systems.228 While the cost
of replacing a lead service line varies depending on the size of the lot, where the
line enters the house, and the price structure of a given community, research by
AWWA shows that the typical cost is around $5,000. AWWA estimates the total
cost to replace all lead service lines at more than $30 billion.229
Typically, the cost for replacing a line is shared by the water utility and the
homeowner. In most areas, the utility owns a portion of the service line where
it branches off of the main line. The homeowner is responsible for the remaining section into their home.230 Survey research shows that the homeowner is
responsible for 55 to 65 percent of the estimated total cost. Using this proportion, CAP estimates that the total cost to homeowners for lead line replacement
at $16 billion to $19 billion.231
This cost is simply more than many families and water utilities can afford. Given
the clear public health threat posed by lead, Congress should authorize the
creation of a nationally competitive lead service line replacement grant program
to provide $250 million annually. Under this program, community water systems
and other public end users that serve vulnerable populations such as schools,
prisons, and hospitals would be eligible to apply for grant funds from EPA.
Furthermore, EPA would have the flexibility to require that grant recipients, such
as community water systems, use not less than 35 percent of funds to provide
low-income homeowners with low- or zero-interest loans. This would allow homeowners to affordably amortize the cost of their replacement through the water
authority with flexible repayment terms.
42 Center for American Progress | An Infrastructure Plan for America
FIGURE 3
Other 1%
Source: Environmental Protection Agency, Drinking Water Infrastructure Needs
Survey and Assessment (2013), available at https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-07/documents/epa816r13006.pdf.
FIGURE 4
Faucet 15.7%
Shower 16.8%
21.7%
Clothes washing
26.7% Toilet
steps would address the gaps in existing SDWA oversight and enforcement without upending a regulatory framework that has demonstrated its overall efficacy.
Beyond SDWA oversight, the federal government provides funding assistance
to states to help them carry out their oversight and enforcement of the SDWA
through the Public Water System Supervision, or PWSS, program.237 Essentially,
these funds help states to implement national primary drinking water regulations
and build technical capacity within the state administration. Federal regulations
specify requirements for everything from monitoring and reporting violations
to sanitary surveysan on-site review of a public water systems water source,
facilities, equipment, and operationsand enforcement actions. States often use
PWSS funds for the following purposes, among others:238
Provide technical assistance to public water systems
Manage public water system data and reporting to the Safe Drinking Water
Information System
Respond to violations
Certify laboratories
Conduct laboratory analyses
Conduct sanitary surveys
Train and certify public water system operators
Provide training and technical assistance to small-system staff and management
to build water system technical, managerial, and financial capacity
In FY 2017, Congress appropriated only $101 million for the PWSS program.
This funding is not enough to ensure states have the resources they need to ensure
residents have safe drinking water. In particular, small water systems face significant technical, managerial, and financial challenges that require direct support
from the state. The vast majority of public water systems with repeat violations
of primary drinking water regulationsincluding the total coliform bacteria rule
and disinfectant byproduct ruleare small systems.239
Clean water
The term clean water is a polite euphemism for all the pollution that results from
residential and industrial water use, as well as the pollution that rainwater picks
up as it flows over agricultural and urban land, accumulating sediment, microbial
pathogens, and chemicals. If untreated, these pollutants become part of our surface waters, threatening human health and aquatic habitats.
Data collected by the EPA reveals that more than 246,000 miles of rivers and
streams within the United States are polluted to a point that they cannot support their intended use, such as fishing and swimming. 240 The most frequent
reason cited for impairment was the presence of pathogens, such as bacteria,
viruses, or other microorganisms, that often cause disease.241 The principal
source of pathogenic pollution is from untreated animal wastetypically from
grazing and large-scale animal feed lots.
Each year, raising livestock produces 500 million tons of manure.242 This is
approximately three times the amount of waste produced by people. More than
10.4 million acres of lake and reservoir water are polluted with mercury and
polychlorinated biphenyls, or PCBswhich can cause cancer and other immune
system disordersor they are fouled by nitrogen and phosphorus from farm runoff.243 In 2011, the most recent year for which data is available, farmers used 21.7
million tons nitrogen, phosphate, and potash in support of crop production.244
Unfortunately, the same fertilizers that help crops grow also provide nutrients to
algae. Farm runoff can spur large-scale large blooms that drive down dissolved
oxygen levels in water, killing fish and other aquatic life.
In urban areas, combined sewer systems, which collect both residential effluent and storm water, are often the source of untreated pollution. During heavy
rains, these systems cannot handle the sudden rush of stormwater. As a result,
raw sewage overflows into local waters and backs up into streets and basements.
Combined sewer systems serve approximately 46 million people in the United
States.245 The EPA estimates that, each year, combined systems overflow as many
as 75,000 times, releasing approximately 850 billion gallons of untreated sewage
into the environment.246 Research by the Centers for Disease Control, or CDC,
shows the real-world impacts of these statistics. Each year, thousands of people are
infected by waterborne illness at an economic cost of more than $500 million in
medical bills and lost productivity.247
In 1972, Congress passed the Clean Water Act, or CWA, to regulate pollution of
surface waters and to provide financial assistance for the construction and repair
of municipal sewage treatment plants.248 The CWA set out to restore and maintain
the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of the nations waters.249 Under
the law, all discharges into surface waters are considered unlawful, unless specifically authorized by a permit from the EPA.250
Every day, businesses and households use water for industrial production and
personal use, respectively. These water users are referred to as point sources,
meaning they are discrete locations where water use produces pollution. Both
businesses and municipal sewage plants must apply to the EPA for permits to treat
and discharge water into the environment. By comparison, stormwater runoff over
agricultural or urban land is referred to as nonpoint source pollution.
The CWA sets treatment protocols and maximum discharge levels. Over time,
the discharge permitting process has evolved from focusing almost exclusively on
reducing chemical and microbial agents that deplete the dissolved oxygen concentration in water to a focus on toxic chemicals.251
As with drinking water, the regulatory framework for the CWA sets up a federalstate partnership. Under the act, the federal government has broad authority to set
pollution discharge limits. Moreover, the EPA determines what constitutes the best
practicable and available control technologies. In this way, the CWA empowers
the EPA to set regulations around both contamination limits and the technologies
and processes necessary to meet those limits. For their part, states may assume the
primary responsibility for issuing discharge permits; monitoring compliance and
reporting; and taking enforcement actions when permit holders exceed their permitted limits. Nonpoint sources of pollution are not subject to permitting. Instead, the
EPA provides states with guidance on best management practices.
Beyond regulatory frameworks, clean water and drinking water infrastructure
share a direct connection: The greater the level of surface water contamination,
the greater the complexity and cost of drinking water treatment. Investments
that reduce surface water pollution also help to lessen the cost burden on drinking water utilities. The challenges facing municipal sewage treatment works are
immense. According to a national needs survey conducted by the EPA, municipal treatment works will require $271 billion in capital investments to meet or
continue to meet CWA standards.252
While the EPA capital-needs estimate is very large, it represents only part of the
story since it addresses only point source pollution from public water treatment
facilities. This estimate does not capture the funding needed to meaningfully
address nonpoint source pollution. According to the EPA, more than half of surface water pollution comes from nonpoint sources.253
FIGURE 5
$51.2
Conveyance
system
repair
$49.6
Advanced
wastewater
treatment
$48.0
Combined
sewer overflow
correction
$44.5 $19.2
New
conveyance
systems
Stormwater
management
Source: Environmental Protection Agency, Clean Watersheds Needs Report 2012: Report to Congress (2016),
p. 7 , Figure 1., available at https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-12/documents/
cwns_2012_report_to_congress-508-opt.pdf.
Recycled water
distribution
In addition to increasing funding for traditional capital projects at public treatment works, Congress should also increase funding for nonpoint source programs.
Within the umbrella of programs known as categorical grants, section 319 grants
provides states with funding to implement their EPA-approved nonpoint source
management programs.254 The goal of this program is to remediate past contamination and to prevent or minimize future nonpoint pollution. Given the immense
burden that nonpoint source pollution places on surface waters, Congress should
increase funding for the section 319 grants program.
Furthermore, Congress should establish a 15 percent set-aside within the Clean
Water State Revolving Fund, or CWSRF, for financing assistance for nonpoint
source projects. Unlike SRF loans to municipal treatment works that have a ratepayer base, nonpoint source project sponsors are less likely to have a dedicated
revenue source. Instead, project sponsors are likely to be local governments or other
political subdivisions of the state that pledge their full faith and credit. For this
reason, state SRF administrators should have the discretion to forgive as much as
30 percent of nonpoint source repayment obligations. Allowing loan forgiveness is
recommended because, while the cost of implementing a nonpoint source project
is carried by the local government, the benefits are highly diffuse. By comparison, a
project that upgrades a treatment works facility directly benefits households that pay
a sewage fee and rely on the public infrastructure to handle their daily effluent.
Finally, Congress should establish a 15 percent set-aside within the CWSRF for
advanced treatment capital projects. Advanced treatment involves processes such
as flocculation; membranes for advanced filtration; ion exchange; and reverse
osmosis, among others.255 Historically, the CWSRF has focused on bringing
all public treatment works up to the secondary treatment standard, which are
additional treatment steps to ensure water quality before being discharged back
into a body of water. Today, the vast majority of systems meet this standard.
In 1972, approximately 60 million people were served by less-than-secondary
treatment systems. By 2012, the number of people served by systems that did not
meet secondary standards had fallen to just 4.1 million.256 At the same time, the
share of wastewater treatment plant needs associated with advanced treatment
projects has risen substantially from 35 percent in 2004 to 49 percent in 2012.257
Establishing a set-aside will ensure that advanced treatment projects receive an
appropriate level of prioritization by SRF administrators.
Funding
All federal drinking and clean water programs are supported through general
fund appropriations.258 The majority of the money for infrastructure flows out to
states in the form of capitalization grants for the Drinking Water State Revolving
Fund and the Clean Water State Revolving Fund. In FY 2017, Congress appropriated $863 million and $1.3 billion, respectively.259 The annual grants from
Congress provide capitalization so that states may make new loans each year.
Similarly, the funding for nonpoint source pollution control and state regulatory enforcement activities also comes from the general fund. Congress should
increase funding for these programs through changes to the tax code that offset
an equivalent amount of spending over the next decade.
Current tax regime
The Drinking Water State Revolving Fund and Clean Water State Revolving
Fund are capitalized through annual appropriations legislation using general
fund revenues.
Policy reforms
Drinking water reforms
Require that the EPA administrator take all necessary actions under emergency powers granted by section 1341
Increase the civil penalties that EPA may levy against state oversight agencies
and water systems for Safe Drinking Water Act violations
Require the EPA to notify water users within 15 days of receiving information on an immediate health hazard if the local water authority or state agency
charged with enforcing the Safe Drinking Water Act fails to notify users
National infrastructure
investment authority
Developing infrastructure projects of regional and national significance typically
involves securing financing. For these projects, the total cost is simply too large for
state, local, and public authority project sponsors to use pay-as-you-go funding. By
accessing credit markets, project sponsors are able to spread the cost out over time.
The most common source of project financing is the municipal bond market.
All nonfederal, tax-exempt public bond financing is called municipal, or muni.
Currently, there is more than $3.7 trillion in outstanding municipal debt.260 While
not all this debt was issued to build infrastructure, the size of outstanding issuances indicates that the muni bond market is active and robust.
In order for federal credit assistance to have value, it must offer project sponsors
benefits that are not available through the municipal bond market. A national
infrastructure investment authority, NIIA, would offer three important benefits:
cost, flexibility, and full subordination.
Borrowing money comes with a cost that is reflected in the interest rate that the
issuer must offer to attract bond buyers. The interest rate reflects a combination
of inflation and risk. Investors must be compensated for the opportunity cost of
foregoing the use of their money for a set period of years, as well as the risk that
the issuer may default on their repayment obligations. This is sometimes referred
to as the risk premium. Before a municipal security is issued, it must receive a rating from a national rating agency such as Moodys Investors Service, Standard and
Poors Financial Services, and Fitch Ratings, among others.
Ratings agencies look at each individual bond issuance to determine the likelihood
that the issuer will be able to make their payment obligations. For general obligation bonds, which pledge the full faith and credit of the issuing government, ratings
agencies look at the overall indebtedness of the government and their overall ability
to raise revenues. For revenue bonds, which pledge a specific source of funding,
such as tolls or parking fees, ratings agencies assess the likely demand for the facilityfor example, a road, bridge, or parking deckin question. These assessments
translate into an overall rating, such as AAA, AA or BB-. The higher the overall rating, the lower the anticipated risk to investors and the lower the interest rate.
Even modest changes in the level of assessed riskand, by extension, the interest
ratecan increase overall financing charges. For instance, a $100 million municipal
bond issuance with a 30-year repayment and an interest rate of 2.75 percent results
in $82.5 million in total interest payments. The same $100 million dollar issuance
with an interest rate of 3.75 percent results in $112.5 million in total interest payments. In this example, a 1 percentage-point change in the interest rate increased
the total cost of borrowing by $30 million. As the size of the underlying issuance
increases, the difference in total financing charges grows as well. On a $500 million
issuance, the difference in total finance charges is $150 million over 30 years.
The federal government is able to issue debt in the form of U.S. Treasury securities at very favorable rates because this debt is assumed to be effectively risk free.
Absent the risk premium associated with other bonds, Treasury rates reflect
broad market assumptions about long-term interest rates. And while the rate
changes on a daily basis, currently, the federal government can issue 20-year
debt for around 2.2 percent.261
Existing federal infrastructure loan programs, such as the Transportation
Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act, or TIFIA, offer project sponsors a passthrough rate. This means that project sponsors are able to borrow from the federal
government at the same rate that the federal government is able to borrow on the
open market. In effect, project sponsors are able to obtain loans at risk-free rates
even if their actual credit profile would not allow borrowing at such a low cost. For
project sponsors issuing general obligation bonds with a AAA rating, the spread
in interest rates between the municipal market and what the federal government
offers are often not that large. The interest rate spread increases as the credit rating
of the municipal security falls. In this way, when the federal government makes a
loan for an infrastructure project that would otherwise receive a lower credit rating,
it is assuming that risk but not passing along any additional cost.
As envisioned, the NIIA could provide project sponsors access to even cheaper
credit by offering loans at below-market rates. For instance, if the federal government is currently able to borrow at 2.6 percent over a 30-year period, the NIIA
could offer a project sponsor financing at only 1 percent.262 On a $100 million loan,
this would save the project sponsor $48 million in financing charges over 30 years.
The NIIA could also issue loans with zero or negative interest rates. The NIIA
would simply take a charge against its capitalization from Congress to cover the difference in the cost of accessing capital through the Treasury market.
The second major benefit of the NIIA would be its ability to offer flexible repayment terms. A traditional municipal security requires the issuer to make a fixed
annual or semi-annual interest payment. At the end of the life of the bond, the
issuer repays the entire principal. For instance, a 30-year $100 million municipal
bond issuance at 2.5 percent would require the issuer to make an annual interest
payment of $2.5 million for a total of $75 million in total interest payments.
FIGURE 6A
10
20
30
Note: Amounts are illustritive of the uniform amortization of a traditional municipal security.
FIGURE 6B
10
20
30
The third major benefit the NIIA would provide is fully subordinate debt. Large projects typically involve multiple tranches
meaning a piece or slice of the totalof financing.263 The tranche
designates the order of payment or cash flow broadly broken out
into senior, mezzanine, and subordinate. For instance, if a toll highway project has three tranches of financing, the most senior debt
holders are paid first, with the mezzanine holders second, and the
subordinate holders last. This means that if toll revenues fall short,
the senior and mezzanine holders will likely be paid while the
subordinated debt holderin this case, the federal government
would not. The lower down the debt stack, the higher the risk of
nonpayment. In exchange for accepting a higher risk of nonpayment, subordinated debt holders receive a higher interest rate. The
market prices the risk premium into the security.
FIGURE 7
Municipal debt
B Series
Mezzanine debt
intermediate risk
Municipal debt
C Series
Mezzanine debt
intermediate risk
I-Bank debt
D Series
Subordinate debt
higher risk
risk premiuman amount set aside to cover the possibility of default on the part
of the project sponsor borrowing the funds. For instance, on a $250 million loan,
the TIFIA program would provide $25 million and the Treasury Department
would provide the remaining $225 million.
Importantly, unlike existing federal infrastructure financing programs, the NIIA
would be a revolving fund. This means that the Treasury Department would
return the credit risk premium to the NIIA once the project sponsor completed
repayment of the loan. The authority would have the ability to use the money
again on a future loan.
Third, the NIIA could use its capitalization to offer low, zero, or negative interest
rate financing. In effect, the authority would buy-down the cost of the loan using
its capitalization. For instance, if the interest rate on a 30-year Treasury security
is 2.6 percent, the authority could offer 1 percent financing.270 At 2.6 percent, a
loan of $250 million dollars would result in $195 million in interest charges. At 1
percent, a loan of $250 million would result in $75 million in interest chargesa
difference of $120 million, or 62 percent. The NIIA would put up the credit risk
premium of $25 millionwhich would revolve back to the authority upon repayment of the loanand take a charge of $120 million to buy-down the interest rate.
This flexibility would allow the NIIA to provide each project sponsor with the
unique mix of support necessary to ensure completion while lowering the risk
of nonperformance of the loan. For some projects, lower interest charges over a
30-year period would have more value than an upfront grant award during the
construction phase. For instance, a lower interest loan may prove especially attractive to a major bridge construction project that pledges toll revenues in order to
repay project financing. A lower interest rate would push up the coverage ratio
the anticipated amount of project revenue over and above financing costsand
lower the risk of nonperformance of the loan.
The NIIA would also play an important role in coordinating major investments for
large projects and groups of interrelated projects that span state lines. The NIIA
would be able to sequence and coordinate investments along multistate assets,
such as the Northeast Corridor, the Mississippi River, and water storage and reclamation projects, among others.
$259.17
$259.17
$25.60
$25.60
$0.63
$0.35
$11.10
$5.34
$3.50
$0.00
Drinking/clean water
$25.00
$0.00
Passenger/freight rail
$50.00
$0.00
$125.00
$0.00
Total
$500.00
$290.5
Infrastructure sector
Highways/transit
Aviation
Inland waterways
Harbors
Flood control
Source: Results based on authors calculation from Federal Aviation Administration, Current Aviation Excise Tax Structure (U.S. Department of
Transportation, 2014), available at https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/apl/aatf/media/14.1.17excisetaxstructurecal
endar2014.pdf; U.S. Department of Transportation, Highway Trust Fund and Taxes, available at http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/map21/factsheets/
htf.cfm (last accessed April 2016); John Frittelli, Federal Freight Policy: In Brief (Washington: Congressional Research Service, 2016), available
at https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44367.pdf; John Frittelli, Harbor Maintenance Finance and Funding (Washington: Congressional
Research Service, 2013), available at https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43222.pdf.
TABLE 2
Sector
Tax mechanism
Aviation
Increase
Ten-year revenue
above baseline,
in billions of dollars
15.25 cents
$259.2
Commercial fuel
$0.008
Aviation gasoline
$0.036
$0.041
$0.027
Flight segment
$0.760
Barge fuel
Harbors
$25.6
1.5 percent
$3.32
1.19 percent
$0.102
$0.35
0.044 percent
$5.34
Source: Results based on authors calculation from Federal Aviation Administration, Current Aviation Excise Tax Structure (U.S. Department of
Transportation, 2014), available at https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/apl/aatf/media/14.1.17excisetaxstructurecal
endar2014.pdf; U.S. Department of Transportation, Highway Trust Fund and Taxes, available at http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/map21/factsheets/
htf.cfm (last accessed April 2016); John Frittelli, Federal Freight Policy: In Brief (Washington: Congressional Research Service, 2016), available
at https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44367.pdf; John Frittelli, Harbor Maintenance Finance and Funding (Washington: Congressional
Research Service, 2013), available at https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43222.pdf.
Table 3 lists a series of changes to the tax code that will generate more than $400
billion in revenue for the federal government over the next 10 years. The revenue
estimates come from the Joint Committee on Taxation. Importantly, these offsets
cover spending on programs described in the plan that rely on appropriations
funding, including: The NIIA, the TIGER grant program, drinking and clean
water programs, lead service line replacement, flood control, port development,
and passenger and freight rail projects.
In addition, these revenues will offset the cost of moving the Harbor Maintenance
and Inland Waterways trust funds off budget. The cost of moving these off budget
is $15.2 billion and $980 million, respectively.271 By taking these two trust funds
off budget, Congress will be able to expend the full amount of revenue the trust
funds generate each year without increasing the budget deficit.
Finally, revenue generated by these tax code changes will cover the shortfall
in the Highway Trust Fund. Currently, the HTF runs an annual shortfall of
approximately $15 billion. This amount is needed to cover all outlays at current levels and to keep enough in reserve as to avoid triggering a slowdown in
reimbursements from the highway and transit accounts. The most recent general
fund transfer from the Fixing Americas Surface Transportation, or FAST, Act
covers the shortfall through FY 2020. The tax offsets will cover the period from
FY 2021 through FY 2026, or $90 billion. By covering the shortfall with offsets,
Congress will be able to spend the entire $259 billion in additional revenue over
10 yearsa sum generated by increasing the tax on gasoline and diesel fuels.
TABLE 3
Ten-year revenue
estimate,
in billions of dollars
Repeal the percentage depletion rule for oil and natural gas wells: This change would eliminate an
accounting method that allows independent producers and royalty owners of oil and natural gas wells
to deduct more expenses from the acquisition and development of a well than were actually incurred.
$12.10
Repeal the intangible drilling cost provision: This change would ensure that oil and natural gas well
operators deduct their expenses as income is earned over the life of a project. In addition, this change
would place the oil and gas industry on an equal tax footing with other businesses.
$13
Repeal last-in-first-out, or LIFO, method of accounting for inventories: This change would prevent
businesses from artificially lowering their tax liability by assuming that the cost of items sold is the
same as the cost of the most recently purchased inventory items.
$106.70
$4.60
Modify like-kind exchange rules: This change would repeal a provision that allows taxpayers to defer
capital gains taxes by directly exchanging certain capital assets such as real estate and art. When assets
are exchanged repeatedly, this can result in the permanent deferral of capital gains taxes.
$10.40
Increase certainty with respect to worker classification: This change would permit the IRS to require
prospective reclassification of workers who have been misclassified as independent contractors and
whose reclassification has been prohibited by law, enabling avoidance of federal employment taxes.
$10.70
Increase tobacco taxes and index for inflation: This change would establish a uniform tax on all
types of tobacco, based on weight. The new rates would be higher and would be indexed for inflation,
addressing the current-law disparity in the tax burden across similar types of tobacco products.
$80.50
Modify transfer tax rules for various grantor trusts: This change would close loopholes through
which wealthy taxpayers use trusts to avoid gift and/or income tax when transferring appreciated
assets to their family members.
$14.20
Restore the estate, gift, and generation-skipping transfer, or GST, tax parameters in effect in
2009 with portability of exemption amount between spouses: This proposal would increase the
estate and GST taxes each to 45 percent above $3.5 million and above $1 million for gifts made during
the decedents lifetime in excess of $14,000 per person per year. Spouses could take advantage of any
unused exemption amount from a predeceased spouse, referred to as exemption portability.
$161.00
Total
$413.20
Source: Office of Management and Budget, General Explanations of the Administrations Fiscal Year 2017 Revenue Proposals, available at https://www.treasury.gov/resourcecenter/tax-policy/Documents/General-Explanations-FY2017.pdf; Joint Committee on Taxation, Estimated Budget Effects of the Revenue Provisions Contained in the
Presidents Fiscal Year 2017 Budget Proposal, available at https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=download&id=4902&chk=4902&no_html=1 (last accessed April 2016).
overall economic output.279 While the stimulus act largely accomplished its goal of
providing a counterweight to falling aggregate demand and rising unemployment, it
was a one-time fiscal intervention.
Unlike previous post-WWII economic downturns, the Great Recession lasted longer, and overall employment levels rebounded much more slowly.280 In addition,
real interest rates have remained well below long-term historical averages. In fact,
a number of central banks, including the Bank of Japan and the European Central
Bank, have started charging negative rates for overnight lending and issuing debt
with negative interest rates in an attempt to spur lending and economic activity.281
Several prominent economists have argued that the United States and other
Western industrial nations have entered a period of secular stagnation. The concept of secular stagnation dates back to the 1930s with the writing of economist
Alvin Hansen. While the theory has a number of elements, its overarching point is
that when aggregate demand falls, both corporate and individual savings accumulate due to a lack of productive and attractive investment opportunities.282 The
excess savings often produce asset bubbles and drive down interest rates as companies and other large investors look for a safe outlet to earn even modest returns.
For example, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes has fallen to just 1.8 percent.283
In a well-functioning market, the price of a good helps to balance out supply
and demand. When it comes to money, interest rates represent the price of
accessing capital. Historically, real or neutral interest rates have tended to settle
at a level that balance savings and investment with roughly full employment.284
Proponents of the secular stagnation theory argue that many Western economies have reached a point where the real or neutral interest rate is so low that
savings and investment are fundamentally out of balance. As a result, central
banks such as the Fed face an environment where their ability to stimulate economic growth through monetary policy is limited.
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers has argued that the United
States has entered a period of secular stagnation and that sustained federal fiscal
stimulus is necessary to restart economic growth in line with historical averages.
In February 2016, Summers stated in a lengthy piece in Foreign Affairs:
The core problem of secular stagnation is that the neutral real interest rate is
too low. This rate, however, cannot be increased through monetary policy.
Indeed, to the extent that easy money works by accelerating investments and
pulling forward demand, it will actually reduce neutral real rates later on. That
is why primary responsibility for addressing secular stagnation should rest with
fiscal policy. An expansionary fiscal policy can reduce national savings, raise neutral real interest rates, and stimulate growth.285 (Emphasis added)
While the economy has benefited from sustained economic growth, the overall economic output of the United States is significantly less than what it would normally
have been given past experiences with recessions. In fact, Summers concludes that
if the U.S. economy had performed as the Congressional Budget Office forecast in
August 2009, U.S. GDP today would be about $1.3 trillion higher than it is.286
Investing in Americas infrastructure offers benefits to the economy and to
American workers and their families. The Center for American Progress infrastructure plan calls for increasing annual federal infrastructure spending by $50
billion above baseline, or $500 billion over a decade. This investment will address
the state-of-good-repair backlog and expand our infrastructures systems where
needed. In addition, this plan will provide real benefits to workers and their
families by creating and sustaining strong middle-class construction and manufacturing jobs. These expenditures will also provide a fiscal stimulus that will boost
overall economic output by increasing aggregate demand, helping to address the
problem of secular stagnation outlined by Summers and others.
Beyond these direct effects, people who find employment or increase their hours
will spend their new or additional earnings on food, clothing, housing, health
care, and education, among other goods and services. This consumption can be
thought of as an indirect effect of increased spending on infrastructure, creating
an overall boost as the initial federal investment ripples out through the economy.
In effect, $1 in federal spending produces more than $1 in total economic activity.
This is known as the multiplier effect.
For instance, a multiplier effect of two indicates that the economy will grow by
$2 for every $1 spent by the government. The exact size of the multiplier effect
depends on three factors: the type of expenditureinfrastructure versus a onetime payments to retirees; the time period over which the expenditure occurs
six months, one year, or longer; and the state of the economy at the time of
expenditurerecession or expansion. 287 Compared to other forms of government
outlays, infrastructure spending tends to have a larger multiplier effect. Otherwise,
infrastructure spending conforms to the general rule that outlays produce the
greatest multiplier effect in the short term and when the economy is in a recession.
Importantly, an economic analysis that looks at fiscal multipliers only captures the
effect of more government spending on aggregate demandthe total amount of
goods and services demanded by consumers, businesses, and governments over
a given period of time.288 However, government spending on infrastructure also
increases supply, largely by increasing the productivity of businesses and workers.
Education, for example, provides people with crucial skills, raising productivity and innovation. The same applies to infrastructure spending. Similarly, safe
and efficient roads, rail lines, and airports lower the cost of doing business and
thus allow businesses to become more productive. The impact of more government spending on the supply side of the economy often occurs over years and
even decades. The productivity effects from more infrastructure spending are not
directly comparable to its short-term demand effects. Put differently, considering
only the demand effects of more infrastructure spending on the economy understates the benefits to economic growth over time.
Spending an additional $50 billion a year on infrastructure for 10 yearsfrom
FY 2017 to FY 2026increases economic output by $691 billion in 2015 dollars
by 2026. Stated another way, the U.S. economy would be 3 percent larger after a
decade of additional infrastructure spending than without it.
This model assumes that infrastructure spending has an immediate fiscal multiplier
of 1.4, meaning that each $1 spent on infrastructure creates direct and indirect
demand effects of $1.40 in the year that the government spends the money. This
multiplier reflects a one-time effect, which implicitly assumes that there is no
offsetting negative effect in the years following the additional spending from higher
taxes and higher interest rates. This assumption is reasonable for three reasons.
First, interest rates remain at historic lows and will likely remain extremely low for
some time. Second, this economic model does not account for positive supply-side
effects from more infrastructure spending. Third, the model uses a multiplier of 1.4,
which falls in the middle of the range of available fiscal multipliers.289
The model relies on the GDP forecast from the Congressional Budget Office to serve
as the baseline for calculating the added economic output resulting from increased
infrastructure spending.290 The model takes a nominalnoninflation adjusted$50
billion in spending each year and then multiplies this by 1.4 to capture the multiplier effect of these outlays. This results in a total nominal increase in economic
activity of $70 billion per year. This spending has a compound effect over time, as
each new dollar not only produces an immediate multiplier effect but also accelerates economic growth over the remaining years associated with it.291 For example,
the economy grows faster by about $15 billion in 2015 dollars in 2017 because it is
larger than it would have been without the additional infrastructure spending.
TABLE 4
CBO baseline,
real GDP
GDP after
Annual difference in
additional spending GDP from baseline
2017
$50.0
$19,200
$19,268
$68.22
393,134
2018
$50.0
$19,700
$19,837
$68.72
387,259
2019
$50.0
$20,100
$20,305
$68.53
377,963
2020
$50.0
$20,500
$20,774
$68.44
371,535
2021
$50.0
$21,000
$21,344
$69.77
373,010
2022
$50.0
$21,400
$21,812
$68.19
357,463
2023
$50.0
$21,900
$22,382
$70.22
362,841
2024
$50.0
$22,400
$22,952
$70.40
357,135
2025
$50.0
$22,800
$23,420
$67.90
338,326
2026
$50.0
$23,300
$23,991
$70.63
347,406
$691.02
3,666,071
Total
Annual gain
in jobs
Source: Authors calculations based on Congressional Budget Office, Long-Term Budget Outlook (2015), available at https://www.cbo.gov/publication/50250; Charles
Whalen and Felix Reichling, The Fiscal Multiplier and Economic Policy Analysis in the United States. Working Paper 2015-02 (Congressional Budget Office, 2015), available
at https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/workingpaper/49925-FiscalMultiplier_1.pdf.
Increasing infrastructure spending would also add millions of jobs to the economy. Assuming that an additional one percent in economic growth translates to an
increase in employment of 0.75 percent,292 the U.S. economy would add approximately 3.6 million more jobs by 2026.293 Moreover, increased federal spending
would lower the overall unemployment rate below what would in the absence of
infrastructure outlays. According to the model, added spending would push down
the unemployment rate by 1 percentage point. Specifically, the overall unemployment rate would fall to 4.4 percent in 2026 instead of the expected 5.4 percent.294
In short, extra infrastructure spending would add $691 billion in 2015 dollars to
the economy, help add 3.6 million new jobs, and lower the unemployment rate by
1 percentage point over 10 years.
TABLE 5
2016 earnings at
150 percent of
minimum wage
Average heavyconstruction
hourly wage
2016 earnings
at heavyconstruction wage
Annual
difference
United States
$10.88
$21,750
$29.6
$59,263.6
$37,514
Alabama
$10.88
$21,750
$24.5
$48,935.2
$27,185
Alaska
$14.63
$29,250
$41.1
$82,280.5
$53,030
Arizona
$12.30
$24,600
$25.1
$50,169.4
$25,569
Arkansas
$12.00
$24,000
$22.8
$45,535.8
$21,536
California
$15.00
$30,000
$33.8
$67,556.6
$37,557
Colorado
$12.45
$24,900
$30.3
$60,541.1
$35,641
Connecticut
$14.40
$28,800
$33.7
$67,340.1
$38,540
Delaware
$12.38
$24,750
$30.6
$61,190.7
$36,441
District of Columbia
$17.25
$34,500
$31.2
$62,381.6
$27,882
Florida
$12.33
$24,660
$24.7
$49,389.9
$24,730
Georgia
$10.88
$21,750
$25.2
$50,494.2
$28,744
Idaho
$10.88
$21,750
$22.8
$45,665.7
$23,916
Illinois
$12.38
$24,750
$39.4
$78,794.4
$54,044
Indiana
$10.88
$21,750
$29.2
$58,332.5
$36,583
Iowa
$10.88
$21,750
$28.4
$56,730.2
$34,980
Kansas
$10.88
$21,750
$26.2
$52,464.6
$30,715
Kentucky
$10.88
$21,750
$25.7
$51,360.3
$29,610
Louisiana
$10.88
$21,750
$27.0
$54,023.6
$32,274
Maine
$11.25
$22,500
$24.5
$49,000.2
$26,500
Maryland
$13.13
$26,250
$29.0
$58,072.7
$31,823
Massachusetts
$15.00
$30,000
$39.4
$78,707.8
$48,708
Michigan
$12.75
$25,500
$28.4
$56,773.5
$31,274
Minnesota
$14.25
$28,500
$33.1
$66,105.9
$37,606
Mississippi
$10.88
$21,750
$23.9
$47,701.0
$25,951
Missouri
$11.48
$22,950
$30.4
$60,779.3
$37,829
Montana
$12.30
$24,600
$27.0
$53,915.4
$29,315
Nebraska
$13.50
$27,000
$24.1
$48,264.0
$21,264
Nevada
$12.38
$24,750
$29.8
$59,545.1
$34,795
New Hampshire
$10.88
$21,750
$28.8
$57,574.7
$35,825
New Jersey
$12.89
$25,770
$38.0
$76,044.5
$50,274
New Mexico
$11.25
$22,500
$22.7
$45,340.9
$22,841
150 percent
of minimum wage
2016 earnings at
150 percent of
minimum wage
Average heavyconstruction
hourly wage
2016 earnings
at heavyconstruction wage
Annual
difference
New York
$13.50
$27,000
$39.1
$78,253.1
$51,253
North Carolina
$10.88
$21,750
$23.9
$47,874.3
$26,124
North Dakota
$10.88
$21,750
$30.9
$61,710.4
$39,960
Ohio
$12.45
$24,900
$28.7
$57,358.2
$32,458
Oklahoma
$10.88
$21,750
$23.4
$46,770.0
$25,020
Oregon
$14.18
$28,350
$30.9
$61,861.9
$33,512
Pennsylvania
$10.88
$21,750
$31.6
$63,291.0
$41,541
Rhode Island
$13.50
$27,000
$31.0
$61,991.9
$34,992
South Carolina
$10.88
$21,750
$22.6
$45,232.6
$23,483
South Dakota
$12.75
$25,500
$24.4
$48,870.3
$23,370
Tennessee
$10.88
$21,750
$24.3
$48,653.8
$26,904
Texas
$10.88
$21,750
$27.0
$53,937.0
$32,187
Utah
$10.88
$21,750
$26.7
$53,309.1
$31,559
Vermont
$14.40
$28,800
$25.0
$49,952.9
$21,153
Virginia
$10.88
$21,750
$26.4
$52,876.0
$31,126
Washington
$14.51
$29,010
$34.2
$68,466.0
$39,456
West Virginia
$13.13
$26,250
$26.8
$53,655.5
$27,406
Wisconsin
$10.88
$21,750
$30.0
$59,934.8
$38,185
Wyoming
$10.88
$21,750
$27.5
$54,998.0
$33,248
Source: Results based on authors calculations from Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan (Washington: Executive Offices of the
President, 2009), available at http://otrans.3cdn.net/45593e8ecbd339d074_l3m6bt1te.pdf; Congressional Budget Office, The 2015 Long-Term Budget Outlook (2015), available at https://www.cbo.
gov/publication/50250; Raise the Minimum Wage, Whats the minimum wage in your state?, available at http://www.raisetheminimumwage.com/pages/minimum-wage-state (last accessed June
2016); Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey, available at http://data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=sm (last accessed June 2016).
Higher wages are also associated with homeownership. Households with income
above the median for all families had a homeownership rate of 78.5 percent at the
end of 2015, while those with family incomes below the median had a homeownership rate of 49.2 percent.298 In addition, higher-income earners are more likely to
participate in a retirement plan at work. In 2014, full-time private sector workers with earnings between $20,000 and $29,999 participated in work-sponsored
retirement plans at a rate of 30 percent.299 For full-time workers with earnings
between $50,000 and $74,499, the participation rate jumps to 56.9 percent.300
Finally, more income also goes along with greater health insurance coverage,
although the differences are relatively small in the era of the Affordable Care Act.
Close to 90 percent89.3 percent, to be exactof people with incomes between
$50,000 and $74,999 had health insurance in 2014.301 By comparison, 83.4 percent of people with incomes below $25,000 had health insurance that same year.
The results of the model are clear: Infrastructure spending boosts economic
growth, creates millions of new jobs, lowers the unemployment rate, and substantially increases the economic security of workers and their families.
Conclusion
Americas history is marked by successive periods of sustained infrastructure
investment. These investments linked cities and rural communities together,
facilitated access to opportunity for millions of people, and efficiently connected
the United States to an increasingly global economy. Beyond these benefits,
infrastructure investments represent a form of intergenerational commitment.
Our country is what it is today because prior generations made sacrifices in order
to build the foundation for a secure and prosperous future. While concrete and
steel are, at best, prosaic elements of our daily lives, they reflect a deeply American
value of always looking to the future and making thoughtful investments that will
pay dividends over many years.
The time has come for our leaders to recognize the need for and value of infrastructure and to keep their commitment to the next generation by taking up the
mantle of national investment.
* Correction, October 12, 2016: This report has been updated to accurately state a
proposed increase in the annual outlay of the Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund, as well
as the user fee revenues over baseline.
Progress. His work focuses on how highway, transit, aviation, and water policy
affect Americas global competitiveness, access to opportunity for diverse communities, and environmental sustainability.
Kevin holds a masters of public policy from the University of Southern California
and a bachelor of arts from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He is
the author of Thinking Outside the Farebox: Creative Approaches to Financing Transit
Projects.
Christian E. Weller is a Senior Fellow at the Center and a professor of public policy
at the McCormack Graduate School of Policy and Global Studies at the University
of Massachusetts, Boston.
Andrew Schwartz is a Research Associate on the Economic Policy team at the
Center.
Endnotes
1 BrainyQuote, Theodore Roosevelt Quotes, available at
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2 Goodreads, Abraham Lincoln, available at http://www.
goodreads.com/quotes/83635-the-legitimate-objectof-government-is-to-do-for-a (last accessed April 2016).
3 American Society of Civil Engineers, 2012 Report Card
for Americas Infrastructure, available at http://www.
infrastructurereportcard.org/grades/ (last accessed
February 2016).
4 Hofstra University, Major Canals Built in the 19th Century, American Northeast, available at https://people.
hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch2en/conc2en/map_american_canals_19th.html (last accessed April 2016).
5 Ibid.
6 New York State Canal Corporation, Canal History, available at http://www.canals.ny.gov/history/history.html
(last accessed April 2016).
7 Ibid.
8 Ibid.
9 University of Houston, Building the Transcontinental
Railroad, available at http://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/
disp_textbook.cfm?smtID=2&psid=3147 (last accessed
April 2016).
10 Result based on authors calculation from Federal
Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Consumer Price Index
(Estimate) 1800-, available at https://www.minneapolisfed.org/community/teaching-aids/cpi-calculatorinformation/consumer-price-index-1800 (last accessed
May 2016).
11 Central Pacific Railroad Photographic History Museum,
CPRR Schedule, Monday, October 18, 1869, available
at http://cprr.org/Museum/Ephemera/CPRR_Schedule_1869.html (last accessed May 2016).
12 U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal-Aid
Highway Act of 1956: Creating The Interstate System,
available at http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/
publicroads/96summer/p96su10.cfm (last accessed
April 2016).
13 Ibid.
14 U.S. Department of Transportation, Public Road Length
2013: Miles by Functional System, available at http://
www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2013/
hm20.cfm (last accessed April 2016).
15 American Public Transportation Association, 2015
Public Transportation Fact Book (2015), available at
http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Documents/
FactBook/2015-APTA-Fact-Book.pdf
16 U.S. Department of Transportation, Traffic Volume Trends: December 2015, available at https://
www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_
monitoring/15dectvt/15dectvt.pdf (last accessed April
2016).
17 American Public Transportation Association, 2015
Public Transportation Fact Book.
18 U.S. Department of Transportation, 2013 Status of the
Nations Highways, Bridges, and Transit: Conditions and
Performance (2013), available at https://www.fhwa.dot.
gov/policy/2013cpr/pdfs/cp2013.pdf.
61 Ibid.
62 Ibid.
63 Federal Aviation Administration, FACT3: Airport
Capacity Needs in the National Airspace System (2015),
available at https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/media/FACT3-Airport-Capacity-Needs-in-theNAS.pdf.
64 Northeast Corridor Infrastructure and Operations
Advisory Commission, State of the Northeast Corridor Region Transportation System (2014), available
at http://www.nec-commission.com/wp-content/
uploads/2013/12/NECC_transportation_summary_report_2014-02-18.pdf.
65 Northeast Corridor Infrastructure and Operations
Advisory Commission, Critical Infrastructure Needs on
the Northeast Corridor.
66 Result based on authors calculation from Amtrak,
Amtrak National Facts; Amtrak, Monthly Performance
Report for March 2015 (2015) available at https://www.
amtrak.com/ccurl/755/926/Amtrak-Monthly-Performance-Report-March-2015.pdf.
67 Results based on authors calculation from Texas A&M
University, 2012 Annual Urban Mobility Report, available at http://mobility.tamu.edu/ums/ (last accessed
November 2014).
68 Amtrak, The Hudson Tunnel Project, available at
https://nec.amtrak.com/content/hudson-tunnel-project (last accessed February 2016).
69 NEC Comission, Hudson River Tunnels, available
at http://www.nec-commission.com/cin_projects/
hudson-river-tunnels/ (last accessed June 2014).
70 Amtrak, The Hudson Tunnel Project.
71 Government Accountability Office, Commuter Rail:
Potential Impacts and Cost Estimates for the Cancelled
Hudson River Tunnel Project, GAO-12-344, Report to
the Chairman, Subcommittee on Surface Transportation and Merchant Marine Infrastructure, Safety, and
Security, Committee on Commerce, Science, and
Transportation, U.S. Senate, March 2012, available at
http://www.gao.gov/assets/590/589192.pdf.
72 Ibid.
73 Patrick McGeehan, 104-Year Old Portal Bridge Presents
$900 million problem for Rail Commuters, The New York
Times, September 25, 2014, available at http://www.
nytimes.com/2014/09/26/nyregion/portal-bridgepresents-northeast-rail-commuters-with-a-104-yearold-problem.html.
74 Amtrak, The Gateway and Program and Hudson
Tunnel Project (2015), available at https://nec.amtrak.
com/sites/default/files/2015-08-10%20Gateway_
NJSenate%20Final.pdf.
75 Amtrak, Portal Bridge Replacement Project (2015)
available at https://nec.amtrak.com/sites/default/
files/Portal%20Bridge_Fact%20Sheet%20Spring%20
2015_Web.pdf.
76 Emma G. Fitzsimmons, Amtrak Says New York Regions
Rail Projects could Cost Up to $23.9 billion, The New
York Times, January 20, 2016, available at http://www.
nytimes.com/2016/01/21/nyregion/amtrak-says-regions-rail-projects-could-cost-up-to-dollar23-9-billion.
html.
79 Federal Railroad Administration and Maryland Department of Transportation, Draft Environmental Impact
Statement and Section 4(f ) Evaluation (2015), available
at http://www.bptunnel.com/images/PDFs/DEIS/
ExecutiveSummary-TableofContents-ChaptersI-II-III.pdf.
80 Federal Railroad Administration and Maryland Department of Transportation, B&P Tunnel Project Purpose
and Need (2014), available at http://www.bptunnel.
com/images/PurposeAndNeed_BPTunnel.pdf.
81 Amtrak, The Baltimore & Potomac Tunnel Replacement
Project (2014) available at https://nec.amtrak.com/
sites/default/files/BP%20Tunnel%20Fact%20Sheet_Final_0.pdf.
82 Northeast Corridor Infrastructure and Operations
Advisory Commission, State of the Northeast Corridor Region Transportation System (2014), available
at http://www.nec-commission.com/wp-content/
uploads/2013/12/NECC_transportation_summary_report_2014-02-18.pdf.
83 Chicago Regional Environmental and Transportation
Efficiency Program, About Create, available at http://
www.createprogram.org/about.htm (last accessed July
2015).
84 Illinois Department of Transportation, Chicago Department of Transportation, and Association of American
Railroads, CREATE Overview (2014), available at http://
www.createprogram.org/factsheets/Overview%20February%202014_FINAL.pdf.
85 John Schwartz, Freight Train Late? Blame Chicago, The
New York Times, May 7, 2012, available at http://www.
nytimes.com/2012/05/08/us/chicago-train-congestionslows-whole-country.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0.
86 Chicago Region Environmental and Transportation
Efficiency Program, About CREATE.
87 Illinois Department of Transportation, Chicago Department of Transportation, and Association of American
Railroads, CREATE Environmental Benefits (2014),
available at http://www.createprogram.org/factsheets/
Environmental%20Benefits%20February%202014_FINAL.pdf.
88 Ibid.
89 Illinois Department of Transportation, Chicago Department of Transportation, and Association of American
Railroads, CREATE Passenger Rail Benefits (2014), available at http://www.createprogram.org/factsheets/Passenger%20Rail%20Benefits%20February%202014%20
FINAL.pdf.
90 Michigan Department of Transportation and others,
TIER 1 Draft Environmental Impact Statement: Purpose
and Need (2014), available at http://greatlakesrail.
org/~grtlakes/documents/PublicHearings/Complete%20Tier%201%20DRAFT%20Environmental%20
Impact%20Statement.pdf.
91 Ibid.
92 Ibid.
93 Ibid.
94 Ibid.
95 Federal Aviation Administration, History: A Brief History of the FAA, available at http://www.faa.gov/about/
history/brief_history/ (last accessed March 2016).
96 Federal Aviation Administration, NextGen Implementation Plan (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2014),
available at https://www.faa.gov/nextgen/library/media/NextGen_Implementation_Plan_2014.pdf.
97 Ibid.
98 Federal Aviation Administration, FAA Reforms Have Not
Achieved Expected Costs, Efficiency, and Modernization
Outcomes (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2016),
available at https://www.oig.dot.gov/sites/default/
files/FAA%20Organizational%20Structure_Final%20
Report%5E1-15-16.pdf.
99 Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Passengers: All Carriers All Airports, available at http://www.transtats.
bts.gov/Data_Elements.aspx?Data=1 (last accessed
March 2016).
100 Ibid.
101 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Air
Traffic, available at http://sos.noaa.gov/Datasets/dataset.php?id=44 (last accessed March 2016).
102 Ibid.
103 Ibid.
104 Federal Aviation Administration, FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2016-2036, available at https://www.
faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/
media/FY2016-36_FAA_Aerospace_Forecast.pdf (last
accessed May 2016).
105 Ibid.
106 U.S. Department of Transportation, Audit Report:
Addressing Underlying Causes for NextGen Delays Will
Require Sustained FAA Leadership and Action (2014),
available at https://www.oig.dot.gov/sites/default/files/
FAA%20Underlying%20Causes%20for%20NextGen%20
Delays%5E2-25-14.pdf.
107 Federal Aviation Administration, Implementing Tomorrows Solutions Today (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2008), available at http://www.aci-na.org/static/
entransit/karnes.pdf.
108 Federal Aviation Administration, NextGen, available
at https://www.faa.gov/nextgen/ (last accessed May
2016).
109 David E. Liddle and Lynette I. Millett, A Review of
the Next Generation Air Transportation System:
Implications and Importance of System Architecture
(Washington: The National Academies, 2015), available
at http://www.nap.edu/catalog/21721/a-review-of-thenext-generation-air-transportation-system-implications.
110 Result base on authors calculation from Federal
Aviation Administration, NextGen; Liddle and Millett,
A Review of the Next Generation Air Transportation
System.
173 The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers does not set a specific
dollar amount for what constitutes a megaproject. In
the past, the USACE has indicated that the level for
complexity of management and delivery increases
significantly beginning around $300 million. For the
purposes of this report, the term megaproject is
intended to mean those projects that have a cost well
beyond what could be financed using formula program
funds. See, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, USACE MegaProject Management: Additional Project, Engineering, and
Construction Management Controls (U.S. Army, 2013),
available at https://www.wbdg.org/ccb/ARMYCOE/
COEECB/ARCHIVES/ecb_2013_11.pdf.
157 National Committee on Levee Safety, Draft: Recommendations for a National Levee Safety Program
(2009), available at http://www.leveesafety.org/docs/
NCLS-Recommendation-Report_012009_DRAFT.pdf.
177 Ted Grossardt, Larry Bray, and Mark Burton, Inland Navigation in the United States: An Evaluation of Economic
Impacts and the Potential Effects of Infrastructure
Investment (Knoxville, TN; Lexington, KY: The University of Tennessee and the University of Kentucky, 2014),
available at http://waterwayscouncil.org/wp-content/
uploads/2014/11/INLAND-NAVIGATION-IN-THE-USDECEMBER-2014.pdf.
178 Inland Waterways Users Board, 28th Annual Report
(2015), available at http://www.iwr.usace.army.
mil/Portals/70/docs/IWUB/annual/IWUB_Annual_
Report_2015_25Jan16_Final.pdf.
179 Stern, Inland Waterways; Department of Transportation, Transportation in the United States: Highlights from
2015 Transportation Statistics Annual Report (2015) available at https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.
bts/files/TITUS_2015.pdf.
180 Ibid.
181 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Public Lock Unavailability Report 1993-2014, available at http://www.
navigationdatacenter.us/lpms/lpms.htm (last accessed
March 2016).
183 Ibid.
168 Ibid.
169 Ibid.
170 Ibid.
171 Ibid.
172 Personal Communication from Conforti.
222 Ibid.
238 Ibid.
239 Ibid.
225 Personal communication from Steve Via, regulatory affairs manager, American Water Works Association, April
12, 2016.
240 Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality Inventory: Report to Congress, 2004 Reporting
241 Ibid.
273 University of Pennsylvania, The Global Economic & Financial Crisis: A Timeline (2015), available at http://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/
Chronology_Economic_Financial_Crisis.pdf.
274 Ibid.
275 Ibid.
276 Polyana da Costa and Crissinda Ponder, How Fed
moves affect mortgage rates, Bankrate.com, September 17, 2015, available at http://www.bankrate.com/
finance/federal-reserve/financial-crisis-timeline.aspx.
277 Neil Irwin, Quantitative Easing Is Ending. Heres What
It Did, in Charts The New York Times, October 29, 2014,
available at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/upshot/quantitative-easing-is-about-to-end-heres-whatit-did-in-seven-charts.html?_r=0.
278 Federal Reserve Bank of New York, The American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009: A Review
of Stimulus Spending in New York and New Jersey,
Current Issues in Economics and Finance 18 (6) (2012),
available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/
media/research/current_issues/ci18-6.pdf.
279 Congressional Budget Office, Estimated Impact of the
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output in2013 (2014), available at
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/45122.
280 Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, Chart Book: The
Legacy of the Great Recession, June 8, 2016, available
at http://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/chartbook-the-legacy-of-the-great-recession.
281 Keith Bradsher, Bank of Japan, in a Surprise,
Adopts Negative Interest Rate, The New York Times,
January 28, 2016, available at http://www.nytimes.
com/2016/01/30/business/international/japan-interestrate.html.
282 The Economist, Secular Stagnation in Graphics: Doom
and Gloom, November 19, 2014, available at http://
www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/11/
secular-stagnation-graphics.
283 Jenny Cosgrave, US Treasury yields slip ahead of jobs
report, CNBC, March 3, 2016, available at http://www.
cnbc.com/2016/03/03/us-treasury-yields-climb-aheadof-jobs-report.html.
284 Larry Summers, The Age of Secular Stagnation:What It
Is and What to Do About It, Foreign Affairs, February 15,
2016, available at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-02-15/age-secular-stagnation.
285 Larry Summers, The Age of Secular Stagnation:What It
Is and What to Do About It, Foreign Affairs, February 15,
2016, available at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-02-15/age-secular-stagnation.
286 Ibid.
287 See Charles Whalen and Felix Reichling, The Fiscal
Multiplier and Economic Policy Analysis in the United
States. Working Paper 2015-02 (Congressional Budget
Office, 2015), available at https://www.cbo.gov/
publication/49925 for a detailed discussion of these
issues and the related evidence on the sizes of a range
of multipliers.
288 Investopedia, Aggregate Demand, available at http://
www.investopedia.com/terms/a/aggregatedemand.
asp (last accessed May 2016).
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