WG1AR5 SummaryVolume FINAL PDF

INTERGOV ERNMENTA L PA NEL ON
climate change
CLIMATE CHANGE 2013

The Physical Science Basis
Summary for Policymakers,

Technical Summary and
Frequently Asked Questions
WG I
WORKING GROUP I CONTRIBUTION TO THE

FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT OF THE
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Summary for Policymakers

A report of Working Group I of the IPCC
Technical Summary
A report accepted by Working Group I of the IPCC but not approved in detail
and

Part of the Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Edited by

Thomas F. Stocker
Working Group I Co-Chair
University of Bern
Gian-Kasper Plattner
Director of Science

Alexander Nauels

Science Assistant

Dahe Qin
Working Group I Co-Chair
China Meteorological Administration
Melinda M.B. Tignor

Director of Operations
Simon K. Allen
Senior Science Officer
Judith Boschung
Administrative Assistant
Yu Xia
Science Officer
Vincent Bex
IT Officer
Pauline M. Midgley
Head
Working Group I Technical Support Unit
Foreword
Climate Change 2013

The Physical Science Basis
Foreword
2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ISBN 978-92-9169-138-8
The designations employed and the presentation of material on maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning
the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
Cover photo: Folgefonna glacier on the high plateaus of Srfjorden, Norway (6003 N - 620 E) Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude.
ii
Introduction
Chapter 2
Foreword
Foreword, Preface
and Dedication
iii
Foreword
These and other findings confirm and enhance our scientific understanding of the climate system and the role of greenhouse gas emissions; as such, the report demands the urgent attention of both policymakers and the general public.
As an intergovernmental body jointly established in 1988 by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) has provided policymakers with the most authoritative and objective scientific and technical assessments. Beginning in
1990, this series of IPCC Assessment Reports, Special Reports, Technical Papers, Methodology Reports and other products have become
standard works of reference.
This Working Group I contribution to the IPCCs Fifth Assessment
Report contains important new scientific knowledge that can be used
to produce climate information and services for assisting society to act
to address the challenges of climate change. The timing is particularly
significant, as this information provides a new impetus, through clear
and indisputable physical science, to those negotiators responsible for
concluding a new agreement under the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change in 2015.
Climate change is a long-term challenge, but one that requires urgent
action given the pace and the scale by which greenhouse gases are
accumulating in the atmosphere and the risks of a more than 2 degree
Celsius temperature rise. Today we need to focus on the fundamentals
and on the actions otherwise the risks we run will get higher with
every year.
We are also grateful to the governments that supported their scientists participation in developing this report and that contributed to
the IPCC Trust Fund to provide for the essential participation of experts
from developing countries and countries with economies in transition.
We would like to express our appreciation to the government of Italy
for hosting the scoping meeting for the IPCCs Fifth Assessment Report,
to the governments of China, France, Morocco and Australia for hosting drafting sessions of the Working Group I contribution and to the
government of Sweden for hosting the Twelfth Session of Working
Group I in Stockholm for approval of the Working Group I Report. The
generous financial support by the government of Switzerland, and the
logistical support by the University of Bern (Switzerland), enabled the
smooth operation of the Working Group I Technical Support Unit. This
is gratefully acknowledged.
We would particularly like to thank Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of
the IPCC, for his direction and guidance of the IPCC and we express our
deep gratitude to Professor Qin Dahe and Professor Thomas Stocker,
the Co-Chairs of Working Group I for their tireless leadership throughout the development and production of this report.
M. Jarraud
Secretary-General
World Meteorological Organization
A. Steiner
Executive Director
United Nations Environment Programme
This Working Group I assessment was made possible thanks to the

commitment and dedication of many hundreds of experts worldwide,
representing a wide range of disciplines. WMO and UNEP are proud
that so many of the experts belong to their communities and networks.
We express our deep gratitude to all authors, review editors and expert
reviewers for devoting their knowledge, expertise and time. We would
like to thank the staff of the Working Group I Technical Support Unit
and the IPCC Secretariat for their dedication.
Foreword
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis presents clear and
robust conclusions in a global assessment of climate change science
not the least of which is that the science now shows with 95 percent
certainty that human activity is the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid-20th century. The report confirms that warming in
the climate system is unequivocal, with many of the observed changes
unprecedented over decades to millennia: warming of the atmosphere
and the ocean, diminishing snow and ice, rising sea levels and increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. Each of the last three decades
has been successively warmer at the Earths surface than any preceding decade since 1850.
Preface
Scope of the Report

During the process of scoping and approving the outline of its Fifth
Assessment Report, the IPCC focussed on those aspects of the current
understanding of the science of climate change that were judged to be
most relevant to policymakers.
In this report, Working Group I has extended coverage of future climate
change compared to earlier reports by assessing near-term projections
and predictability as well as long-term projections and irreversibility
in two separate chapters. Following the decisions made by the Panel
during the scoping and outline approval, a set of new scenarios, the
Representative Concentration Pathways, are used across all three
Working Groups for projections of climate change over the 21st century. The coverage of regional information in the Working Group I
report is expanded by specifically assessing climate phenomena such
as monsoon systems and their relevance to future climate change in
the regions.
The Working Group I Report is an assessment, not a review or a text
book of climate science, and is based on the published scientific and
technical literature available up to 15 March 2013. Underlying all
aspects of the report is a strong commitment to assessing the science
comprehensively, without bias and in a way that is relevant to policy
but not policy prescriptive.
Structure of the Report

This report consists of a short Summary for Policymakers, a longer
Technical Summary and fourteen thematic chapters plus annexes. An
innovation in this Working Group I assessment is the Atlas of Global
and Regional Climate Projections (Annex I) containing time series and
maps of temperature and precipitation projections for 35 regions of
the world, which enhances accessibility for stakeholders and users.
The Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary of this report

follow a parallel structure and each includes cross-references to the
chapter and section where the material being summarised can be
found in the underlying report. In this way, these summary components of the report provide a road-map to the contents of the entire
report and a traceable account of every major finding.
In order to facilitate the accessibility of the findings of the Working
Group I assessment for a wide readership and to enhance their usability for stakeholders, each section of the Summary for Policymakers has
a highlighted headline statement. Taken together, these 19 headline
statements provide an overarching summary in simple and quotable
language that is supported by the scientists and approved by the
member governments of the IPCC. Another innovative feature of this
report is the presentation of Thematic Focus Elements in the Technical Summary that provide end to end assessments of important crosscutting issues in the physical science basis of climate change.
Introduction (Chapter 1): This chapter provides information on the
progress in climate change science since the First Assessment Report
of the IPCC in 1990 and gives an overview of key concepts, indicators of climate change, the treatment of uncertainties and advances in
measurement and modelling capabilities. This includes a description of
the future scenarios and in particular the Representative Concentration
Pathway scenarios used across all Working Groups for the IPCCs Fifth
Assessment Report.
Observations and Paleoclimate Information (Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5): These
chapters assess information from all climate system components on
climate variability and change as obtained from instrumental records
and climate archives. They cover all relevant aspects of the atmosphere
including the stratosphere, the land surface, the oceans and the cryosphere. Timescales from days to decades (Chapters 2, 3 and 4) and
from centuries to many millennia (Chapter 5) are considered.
Process Understanding (Chapters 6 and 7): These chapters cover all
relevant aspects from observations and process understanding to projections from global to regional scales for two key topics. Chapter 6
covers the carbon cycle and its interactions with other biogeochemical
cycles, in particular the nitrogen cycle, as well as feedbacks on the
climate system. For the first time, there is a chapter dedicated to the
assessment of the physical science basis of clouds and aerosols, their
interactions and chemistry, and the role of water vapour, as well as
their role in feedbacks on the climate system (Chapter 7).
From Forcing to Attribution of Climate Change (Chapters 8, 9, 10): All
the information on the different drivers (natural and anthropogenic)
of climate change is collected, expressed in terms of Radiative Forcing and assessed in Chapter 8. In Chapter 9, the hierarchy of climate
models used in simulating past and present climate change is assessed
and evaluated against observations and paleoclimate reconstructions.
vii
Preface
The Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a
comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate
change. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the IPCCs
Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 and incorporates subsequent new
findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme
Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, as well
as from research published in the extensive scientific and technical
literature. The assessment considers new evidence of past, present and
projected future climate change based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of the climate system, paleoclimate
archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations using
climate models.
Preface
Information regarding detection of changes on global to regional

scales and their attribution to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases is assessed in Chapter 10.
Preface
Future Climate Change, Predictability and Irreversibility (Chapters 11

and 12): These chapters assess projections of future climate change
derived from climate models on time scales from decades to centuries
at both global and regional scales, including mean changes, variability and extremes. Fundamental questions related to the predictability
of climate as well as long term climate change, climate change commitments and inertia in the climate system are addressed. Knowledge
on irreversible changes and surprises in the climate system is also
assessed.
Integration (Chapters 13 and 14): These chapters synthesise all relevant
information for two key topics of this assessment: sea level change
(Chapter 13) and climate phenomena across the regions (Chapter 14).
Chapter 13 presents an end to end assessment of information on sea
level change based on paleoclimate reconstructions, observations and
process understanding, and provides projections from global to regional scales. Chapter 14 assesses the most important modes of variability
in the climate system, such as El Nio-Southern Oscillation, monsoon
and many others, as well as extreme events. Furthermore, this chapter
deals with interconnections between the climate phenomena, their
regional expressions and their relevance for future regional climate
change.
Maps assessed in Chapter 14, together with Chapters 11 and 12, form
the basis of the Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections in
Annex I, which is also available in digital format. Radiative forcings
and estimates of future atmospheric concentrations from Chapters 7,
8, 11 and 12 form the basis of the Climate System Scenario Tables
presented in Annex II. All material including high-resolution versions of
the figures, underlying data and Supplementary Material to the chapters is also available online: www.climatechange2013.org.
The scientific community and the climate modelling centres around the
world brought together their activities in the Coordinated Modelling
Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), providing the basis for most
of the assessment of future climate change in this report. Their efforts
enable Working Group I to deliver comprehensive scientific information for the policymakers and the users of this report, as well as for
the specific assessments of impacts carried out by IPCC Working Group
II, and of costs and mitigation strategies, carried out by IPCC Working
Group III.
Following the successful introduction in the previous Working Group I
assessment in 2007, all chapters contain Frequently Asked Questions.
In these the authors provide scientific answers to a range of general
questions in a form that will be accessible to a broad readership and
serves as a resource for teaching purposes. Finally, the report is accompanied by extensive Supplementary Material which is made available
viii
in the online versions of the report to provide an additional level of

detail, such as description of datasets, models, or methodologies used
in chapter analyses, as well as material supporting the figures in the
Summary for Policymakers.
The Process
This Working Group I Assessment Report represents the combined
efforts of hundreds of leading experts in the field of climate science
and has been prepared in accordance with rules and procedures established by the IPCC. A scoping meeting for the Fifth Assessment Report
was held in July 2009 and the outlines for the contributions of the
three Working Groups were approved at the 31st Session of the Panel
in November 2009. Governments and IPCC observer organisations
nominated experts for the author team. The team of 209 Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors plus 50 Review Editors selected
by the Working Group I Bureau was accepted at the 41st Session of
the IPCC Bureau in May 2010. In addition, more than 600 Contributing Authors provided draft text and information to the author teams
at their request. Drafts prepared by the authors were subject to two
rounds of formal review and revision followed by a final round of government comments on the Summary for Policymakers. A total of 54,677
written review comments were submitted by 1089 individual expert
reviewers and 38 governments. The Review Editors for each chapter
monitored the review process to ensure that all substantive review
comments received appropriate consideration. The Summary for Policymakers was approved line-by-line and the underlying chapters were
then accepted at the 12th Session of IPCC Working Group I from 2327
September 2007.
Acknowledgements
We are very grateful for the expertise, hard work, commitment to
excellence and integrity shown throughout by the Coordinating Lead
Authors and Lead Authors with important help by the many Contributing Authors. The Review Editors have played a critical role in assisting the author teams and ensuring the integrity of the review process.
We express our sincere appreciation to all the expert and government
reviewers. We would also like to thank the members of the Bureau of
Working Group I: Jean Jouzel, Abdalah Mokssit, Fatemeh Rahimizadeh,
Fredolin Tangang, David Wratt and Francis Zwiers, for their thoughtful
advice and support throughout the preparation of the report.
We gratefully acknowledge the long-term efforts of the scientific community, organized and facilitated through the World Climate Research
Programme, in particular CMIP5. In this effort by climate modelling
centres around the world, more than 2 million gigabytes of numerical
data have been produced, which were archived and distributed under
the stewardship of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison. This represents an unprecedented concerted effort by the
scientific community and their funding institutions.
Preface
Our sincere thanks go to the hosts and organizers of the four Working
Group I Lead Author Meetings and the 12th Session of Working Group
I. We gratefully acknowledge the support from the host countries:
China, France, Morocco, Australia and Sweden. The support for their
scientists provided by many governments as well as through the IPCC
Trust Fund is much appreciated. The efficient operation of the Working
Group I Technical Support Unit was made possible by the generous
financial support provided by the government of Switzerland and logistical support from the University of Bern (Switzerland).
Rajendra K. Pachauri
IPCC Chair
Qin Dahe
IPCC WGI Co-Chair
Preface
We would also like to thank Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC, and
the staff of the IPCC Secretariat: Gaetano Leone, Jonathan Lynn, Mary
Jean Burer, Sophie Schlingemann, Judith Ewa, Jesbin Baidya, Werani
Zabula, Joelle Fernandez, Annie Courtin, Laura Biagioni and Amy
Smith. Thanks are due to Francis Hayes who served as the conference
officer for the Working Group I Approval Session.
Finally our particular appreciation goes to the Working Group I Technical Support Unit: Gian-Kasper Plattner, Melinda Tignor, Simon Allen,
Judith Boschung, Alexander Nauels, Yu Xia, Vincent Bex and Pauline
Midgley for their professionalism, creativity and dedication. Their tireless efforts to coordinate the Working Group I Report ensured a final
product of high quality. They were assisted in this by Adrien Michel
and Flavio Lehner with further support from Zhou Botao and Sun Ying.
In addition, the following contributions are gratefully acknowledged:
David Hansford (editorial assistance with the Frequently Asked Questions), UNEP/GRID-Geneva and University of Geneva (graphics assistance with the Frequently Asked Questions), Theresa Kornak (copyedit),
Marilyn Anderson (index) and Michael Shibao (design and layout).
Thomas F. Stocker
IPCC WGI Co-Chair
ix
Dedication
Dedication
Bert Bolin
(15 May 1925 30 December 2007)
The Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis is dedicated to the memory of Bert Bolin, the first Chair of the IPCC.
As an accomplished scientist who published on both atmospheric dynamics and the carbon cycle, including processes in the
atmosphere, oceans and biosphere, Bert Bolin realised the complexity of the climate system and its sensitivity to anthropogenic
perturbation. He made a fundamental contribution to the organisation of international cooperation in climate research, being
involved in the establishment of a number of global programmes.
Bert Bolin played a key role in the creation of the IPCC and its assessments, which are carried out in a unique and formalized
process in order to provide a robust scientific basis for informed decisions regarding one of the greatest challenges of our time.
His vision and leadership of the Panel as the founding Chair from 1988 to 1997 laid the basis for subsequent assessments including this one and are remembered with deep appreciation.
xi
Contents

Front Matter
Foreword
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Preface
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dedication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
xi
SPM
TS
Technical Summary
FAQs
Frequently Asked Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Glossary
Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
33
119
Foreword
vii
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Introduction
Chapter 2
Chapter 1 for Policymakers

Summary
SPM1
Summary
for Policymakers
Drafting Authors:
Lisa V. Alexander (Australia), Simon K. Allen (Switzerland/New Zealand), Nathaniel L. Bindoff
(Australia), Franois-Marie Bron (France), John A. Church (Australia), Ulrich Cubasch
(Germany), Seita Emori (Japan), Piers Forster (UK), Pierre Friedlingstein (UK/Belgium), Nathan
Gillett (Canada), Jonathan M. Gregory (UK), Dennis L. Hartmann (USA), Eystein Jansen
(Norway), Ben Kirtman (USA), Reto Knutti (Switzerland), Krishna Kumar Kanikicharla (India),
Peter Lemke (Germany), Jochem Marotzke (Germany), Valrie Masson-Delmotte (France),
Gerald A. Meehl (USA), Igor I. Mokhov (Russian Federation), Shilong Piao (China), Gian-Kasper
Plattner (Switzerland), Qin Dahe (China), Venkatachalam Ramaswamy (USA), David Randall
(USA), Monika Rhein (Germany), Maisa Rojas (Chile), Christopher Sabine (USA), Drew Shindell
(USA), Thomas F. Stocker (Switzerland), Lynne D. Talley (USA), David G. Vaughan (UK), ShangPing Xie (USA)
Draft Contributing Authors:

Myles R. Allen (UK), Olivier Boucher (France), Don Chambers (USA), Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
(Denmark), Philippe Ciais (France), Peter U. Clark (USA), Matthew Collins (UK), Josefino C.
Comiso (USA), Viviane Vasconcellos de Menezes (Australia/Brazil), Richard A. Feely (USA),
Thierry Fichefet (Belgium), Arlene M. Fiore (USA), Gregory Flato (Canada), Jan Fuglestvedt
(Norway), Gabriele Hegerl (UK/Germany), Paul J. Hezel (Belgium/USA), Gregory C. Johnson
(USA), Georg Kaser (Austria/Italy), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation), John Kennedy (UK),
Albert M. G. Klein Tank (Netherlands), Corinne Le Qur (UK), Gunnar Myhre (Norway), Timothy
Osborn (UK), Antony J. Payne (UK), Judith Perlwitz (USA), Scott Power (Australia), Michael
Prather (USA), Stephen R. Rintoul (Australia), Joeri Rogelj (Switzerland/Belgium), Matilde
Rusticucci (Argentina), Michael Schulz (Germany), Jan Sedlek (Switzerland), Peter A. Stott
(UK), Rowan Sutton (UK), Peter W. Thorne (USA/Norway/UK), Donald Wuebbles (USA)
This Summary for Policymakers should be cited as:

IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker,
T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)].
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
A. Introduction
The Working Group I contribution to the IPCCs Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) considers new evidence of climate change
based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical
studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the
IPCCs Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), and incorporates subsequent new findings of research. As a component of the
fifth assessment cycle, the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate
Change Adaptation (SREX) is an important basis for information on changing weather and climate extremes.
SPM
This Summary for Policymakers (SPM) follows the structure of the Working Group I report. The narrative is supported by a
series of overarching highlighted conclusions which, taken together, provide a concise summary. Main sections are introduced
with a brief paragraph in italics which outlines the methodological basis of the assessment.
The degree of certainty in key findings in this assessment is based on the author teams evaluations of underlying scientific
understanding and is expressed as a qualitative level of confidence (from very low to very high) and, when possible,
probabilistically with a quantified likelihood (from exceptionally unlikely to virtually certain). Confidence in the validity of
a finding is based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence (e.g., data, mechanistic understanding, theory,
models, expert judgment) and the degree of agreement1. Probabilistic estimates of quantified measures of uncertainty in a
finding are based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or both, and expert judgment2. Where appropriate,
findings are also formulated as statements of fact without using uncertainty qualifiers. (See Chapter 1 and Box TS.1 for more
details about the specific language the IPCC uses to communicate uncertainty).
The basis for substantive paragraphs in this Summary for Policymakers can be found in the chapter sections of the underlying
report and in the Technical Summary. These references are given in curly brackets.
B. Observed Changes in the Climate System

Observations of the climate system are based on direct measurements and remote sensing from satellites and other platforms.
Global-scale observations from the instrumental era began in the mid-19th century for temperature and other variables, with
more comprehensive and diverse sets of observations available for the period 1950 onwards. Paleoclimate reconstructions
extend some records back hundreds to millions of years. Together, they provide a comprehensive view of the variability and
long-term changes in the atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere, and the land surface.
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed
changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have
warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the
concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased (see Figures SPM.1, SPM.2, SPM.3 and
SPM.4). {2.2, 2.4, 3.2, 3.7, 4.24.7, 5.2, 5.3, 5.55.6, 6.2, 13.2}
In this Summary for Policymakers, the following summary terms are used to describe the available evidence: limited, medium, or robust; and for the degree of agreement:
low, medium, or high. A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high, and very high, and typeset in italics, e.g., medium confidence.
For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with
increasing confidence (see Chapter 1 and Box TS.1 for more details).
In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99100% probability,
very likely 90100%, likely 66100%, about as likely as not 3366%, unlikely 033%, very unlikely 010%, exceptionally unlikely 01%. Additional terms (extremely likely:
95100%, more likely than not >50100%, and extremely unlikely 05%) may also be used when appropriate. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., very likely (see
Chapter 1 and Box TS.1 for more details).
B.1 Atmosphere
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earths surface than any
preceding decade since 1850 (see Figure SPM.1). In the Northern Hemisphere, 19832012
was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence). {2.4, 5.3}
SPM
The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a
warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] C3, over the period 1880 to 2012, when multiple independently produced datasets exist.
The total increase between the average of the 18501900 period and the 20032012 period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] C,
based on the single longest dataset available 4 (see Figure SPM.1). {2.4}
For the longest period when calculation of regional trends is sufficiently complete (1901 to 2012), almost the entire globe
has experienced surface warming (see Figure SPM.1). {2.4}
In addition to robust multi-decadal warming, global mean surface temperature exhibits substantial decadal and
interannual variability (see Figure SPM.1). Due to natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to
the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends. As one example, the rate of warming
over the past 15 years (19982012; 0.05 [0.05 to 0.15] C per decade), which begins with a strong El Nio, is smaller
than the rate calculated since 1951 (19512012; 0.12 [0.08 to 0.14] C per decade)5. {2.4}
Continental-scale surface temperature reconstructions show, with high confidence, multi-decadal periods during
the Medieval Climate Anomaly (year 950 to 1250) that were in some regions as warm as in the late 20th century.
These regional warm periods did not occur as coherently across regions as the warming in the late 20th century (high
confidence). {5.5}
It is virtually certain that globally the troposphere has warmed since the mid-20th century. More complete observations
allow greater confidence in estimates of tropospheric temperature changes in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere
than elsewhere. There is medium confidence in the rate of warming and its vertical structure in the Northern Hemisphere
extra-tropical troposphere and low confidence elsewhere. {2.4}
Confidence in precipitation change averaged over global land areas since 1901 is low prior to 1951 and medium
afterwards. Averaged over the mid-latitude land areas of the Northern Hemisphere, precipitation has increased since
1901 (medium confidence before and high confidence after 1951). For other latitudes area-averaged long-term positive
or negative trends have low confidence (see Figure SPM.2). {TS TFE.1, Figure 2; 2.5}
Changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been observed since about 1950 (see Table SPM.1 for
details). It is very likely that the number of cold days and nights has decreased and the number of warm days and nights
has increased on the global scale6. It is likely that the frequency of heat waves has increased in large parts of Europe,
Asia and Australia. There are likely more land regions where the number of heavy precipitation events has increased than
where it has decreased. The frequency or intensity of heavy precipitation events has likely increased in North America and
Europe. In other continents, confidence in changes in heavy precipitation events is at most medium. {2.6}
In the WGI contribution to the AR5, uncertainty is quantified using 90% uncertainty intervals unless otherwise stated. The 90% uncertainty interval, reported in square
brackets, is expected to have a 90% likelihood of covering the value that is being estimated. Uncertainty intervals are not necessarily symmetric about the corresponding
best estimate. A best estimate of that value is also given where available.
Both methods presented in this bullet were also used in AR4. The first calculates the difference using a best fit linear trend of all points between 1880 and 2012. The second
calculates the difference between averages for the two periods 18501900 and 20032012. Therefore, the resulting values and their 90% uncertainty intervals are not
directly comparable. {2.4}
Trends for 15-year periods starting in 1995, 1996, and 1997 are 0.13 [0.02 to 0.24] C per decade, 0.14 [0.03 to 0.24] C per decade, and, 0.07 [0.02 to 0.18] C per
decade, respectively.
See the Glossary for the definition of these terms: cold days/cold nights, warm days/warm nights, heat waves.
Observed globally averaged combined land and ocean

surface temperature anomaly 18502012
(a)
0.6
Annual average
0.4
Temperature anomaly (C) relative to 19611990
SPM
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.6
Decadal average
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1850
(b)
1900
1950
Year
2000
Observed change in surface temperature 19012012
0.6 0.4 0.2
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.25
1.5
1.75
2.5
(C)
Figure SPM.1 | (a) Observed global mean combined land and ocean surface temperature anomalies, from 1850 to 2012 from three data sets. Top panel:
annual mean values. Bottom panel: decadal mean values including the estimate of uncertainty for one dataset (black). Anomalies are relative to the mean
of 19611990. (b) Map of the observed surface temperature change from 1901 to 2012 derived from temperature trends determined by linear regression
from one dataset (orange line in panel a). Trends have been calculated where data availability permits a robust estimate (i.e., only for grid boxes with
greater than 70% complete records and more than 20% data availability in the first and last 10% of the time period). Other areas are white. Grid boxes
where the trend is significant at the 10% level are indicated by a + sign. For a listing of the datasets and further technical details see the Technical Summary
Supplementary Material. {Figures 2.192.21; Figure TS.2}
Virtually certain {12.4}
Very likely
{14.6}
More likely than not in the Western North Pacific

and North Atlantic j
Likely (late 20th century)

Likely
Likely k
More likely than not k
Very likely m
Likely
Very likely l {13.7}

Likely l {13.7}
Likely k {3.7}
Likely (since 1970)
{3.7}
More likely than not in some basins

Likely
Low confidence
{11.3}
Medium confidence in some regions

Likelye
Low confidence
More likely than not
Low confidencei
{10.6}
Low confidence in long term (centennial) changes

Virtually certain in North Atlantic since 1970
Low confidenceg {11.3}
Low confidence
Likely in some regions, since 1970
Medium confidence
{10.6}

Likely in many regions, since 1970e
{2.6}
{12.4}
Low confidence
Low confidence on a global scale

Likely changes in some regionsd {2.6}
f
Likely (medium confidence) on a regional to

global scaleh
Medium confidence
Likely more land areas with increases than decreases

Likely over most land areas
Likely over many areas

Very likely over most land areas
{12.4}
Very likely over most of the mid-latitude land

masses and over wet tropical regions
Likely over many land areas

{11.3}
Medium confidence

Likely more land areas with increases than decreasesc

{2.6}
{7.6, 10.6}
{12.4}
Very likely
Very likely
Not formally assessed

Medium confidence in many (but not all) regions

Likely
Not formally assessedb

{11.3}
Virtually certain
Virtually certain
Very likely

Likelya
{10.6}
{2.6}
Medium confidence on a global scale

Likely in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia
Likely {11.3}
* The direct comparison of assessment findings between reports is difficult. For some climate variables, different aspects have been assessed, and the revised guidance note on uncertainties has been used for the SREX and AR5. The availability of new information, improved scientific understanding, continued
analyses of data and models, and specific differences in methodologies applied in the assessed studies, all contribute to revised assessment findings.
Notes:
a
Attribution is based on available case studies. It is likely that human influence has more than doubled the probability of occurrence of some observed heat waves in some locations.
b
Models project near-term increases in the duration, intensity and spatial extent of heat waves and warm spells.
c
In most continents, confidence in trends is not higher than medium except in North America and Europe where there have been likely increases in either the frequency or intensity of heavy precipitation with some seasonal and/or regional variation. It is very likely that there have been increases in central
North America.
d
The frequency and intensity of drought has likely increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa, and likely decreased in central North America and north-west Australia.
e
AR4 assessed the area affected by drought.
f
SREX assessed medium confidence that anthropogenic influence had contributed to some changes in the drought patterns observed in the second half of the 20th century, based on its attributed impact on precipitation and temperature changes. SREX assessed low confidence in the attribution of changes
in droughts at the level of single regions.
g There is low confidence in projected changes in soil moisture.
h Regional to global-scale projected decreases in soil moisture and increased agricultural drought are likely (medium confidence) in presently dry regions by the end of this century under the RCP8.5 scenario. Soil moisture drying in the Mediterranean, Southwest US and southern African regions is consistent
with projected changes in Hadley circulation and increased surface temperatures, so there is high confidence in likely surface drying in these regions by the end of this century under the RCP8.5 scenario.
i There is medium confidence that a reduction in aerosol forcing over the North Atlantic has contributed at least in part to the observed increase in tropical cyclone activity since the 1970s in this region.
j Based on expert judgment and assessment of projections which use an SRES A1B (or similar) scenario.
k Attribution is based on the close relationship between observed changes in extreme and mean sea level.
l There is high confidence that this increase in extreme high sea level will primarily be the result of an increase in mean sea level. There is low confidence in region-specific projections of storminess and associated storm surges.
m SREX assessed it to be very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to future upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels.
Increased incidence and/or

magnitude of extreme
high sea level
Increases in intense
tropical cyclone activity
Increases in intensity
and/or duration of drought
Heavy precipitation events.

Increase in the frequency,
intensity, and/or amount
of heavy precipitation
Warm spells/heat waves.

Frequency and/or duration
increases over most
land areas
Likely
Likely (nights only)
{10.6}
Very likely
Very likely
{2.6}
Very likely
Warmer and/or more

frequent hot days and
nights over most land areas
Virtually certain
Virtually certain
Likely
Likely
Virtually certain {12.4}
Late 21st century
Very likely
Very likely
Likely {11.3}
Warmer and/or fewer

cold days and nights
over most land areas
{10.6}
Very likely
Very likely {2.6}
Likelihood of further changes
Assessment of a human
contribution to observed changes
Assessment that changes occurred (typically

since 1950 unless otherwise indicated)
Phenomenon and
direction of trend
Early 21st century
Table SPM.1 | Extreme weather and climate events: Global-scale assessment of recent observed changes, human contribution to the changes, and projected further changes for the early (20162035) and late (20812100) 21st century.
Bold indicates where the AR5 (black) provides a revised* global-scale assessment from the SREX (blue) or AR4 (red). Projections for early 21st century were not provided in previous assessment reports. Projections in the AR5 are relative to
the reference period of 19862005, and use the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (see Box SPM.1) unless otherwise specified. See the Glossary for definitions of extreme weather and climate events.

SPM
Observed change in annual precipitation over land

1901 2010
1951 2010
SPM
100
50
25
10
2.5
2.5
10
25
50
100
(mm yr per decade)

-1
Figure SPM.2 | Maps of observed precipitation change from 1901 to 2010 and from 1951 to 2010 (trends in annual accumulation calculated using the
same criteria as in Figure SPM.1) from one data set. For further technical details see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {TS TFE.1, Figure 2;
Figure 2.29}
B.2 Ocean
Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting
for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence).
It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010 (see Figure
SPM.3), and it likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971. {3.2, Box 3.1}
On a global scale, the ocean warming is largest near the surface, and the upper 75 m warmed by 0.11 [0.09 to 0.13] C
per decade over the period 1971 to 2010. Since AR4, instrumental biases in upper-ocean temperature records have been
identified and reduced, enhancing c onfidence in the assessment of change. {3.2}
It is likely that the ocean warmed between 700 and 2000 m from 1957 to 2009. Sufficient observations are available for
the period 1992 to 2005 for a global assessment of temperature change below 2000 m. There were likely no significant
observed temperature trends between 2000 and 3000 m for this period. It is likely that the ocean warmedfrom 3000 m
to the bottom for this period, with the largest warming observed in the Southern Ocean. {3.2}
More than 60% of the net energy increase in the climate system is stored in the upper ocean (0700 m) during the
relatively well-sampled 40-year period from 1971 to 2010, and about 30% is stored in the ocean below 700 m. The
increase in upper ocean heat content during this time period estimated from a linear trend is likely 17 [15 to 19]
1022 J 7 (see Figure SPM.3). {3.2, Box 3.1}
It is about as likely as not that ocean heat content from 0700 m increased more slowly during 2003 to 2010 than during
1993 to 2002 (see Figure SPM.3). Ocean heat uptake from 7002000 m, where interannual variability is smaller, likely
continued unabated from 1993 to 2009. {3.2, Box 9.2}
It is very likely that regions of high salinity where evaporation dominates have become more saline, while regions of
low salinity where precipitation dominates have become fresher since the 1950s. These regional trends in ocean salinity
provide indirect evidence that evaporation and precipitation over the oceans have changed (medium confidence). {2.5,
3.3, 3.5}
There is no observational evidence of a trend in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), based on the
decade-long record of the complete AMOC and longer records of individual AMOC components. {3.6}

A constant supply of heat through the ocean surface at the rate of 1 W m2 for 1 year would increase the ocean heat content by 1.1 1022 J.
B.3 Cryosphere
Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass,
glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern
Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent (high confidence) (see
Figure SPM.3). {4.24.7}
SPM
The average rate of ice loss8 from glaciers around the world, excluding glaciers on the periphery of the ice sheets9, was
very likely 226 [91 to 361] Gt yr1 over the period 1971 to 2009, and very likely 275 [140 to 410] Gt yr1 over the period
1993 to 200910. {4.3}
The average rate of ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet has very likely substantially increased from 34 [6 to 74] Gt yr1
over the period 1992 to 2001 to 215 [157 to 274] Gt yr1 over the period 2002 to 2011. {4.4}
The average rate of ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet has likely increased from 30 [37 to 97] Gt yr1 over the period
19922001 to 147 [72 to 221] Gt yr1 over the period 2002 to 2011. There is very high confidence that these losses are
mainly from the northern Antarctic Peninsula and the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica. {4.4}
The annual mean Arctic sea ice extent decreased over the period 1979 to 2012 with a rate that was very likely in the
range 3.5 to 4.1% per decade (range of 0.45 to 0.51 million km2 per decade), and very likely in the range 9.4 to 13.6%
per decade (range of 0.73 to 1.07 million km2 per decade) for the summer sea ice minimum (perennial sea ice). The
average decrease in decadal mean extent of Arctic sea ice has been most rapid in summer (high confidence); the spatial
extent has decreased in every season, and in every successive decade since 1979 (high confidence) (see Figure SPM.3).
There is medium confidence from reconstructions that over the past three decades, Arctic summer sea ice retreat was
unprecedented and sea surface temperatures were anomalously high in at least the last 1,450 years. {4.2, 5.5}
It is very likely that the annual mean Antarctic sea ice extent increased at a rate in the range of 1.2 to 1.8% per decade
(range of 0.13 to 0.20 million km2 per decade) between 1979 and 2012. There is high confidence that there are strong
regional differences in this annual rate, with extent increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. {4.2}
There is very high confidence that the extent of Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased since the mid-20th
century (see Figure SPM.3). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent decreased 1.6 [0.8 to 2.4] % per decade for March
and April, and 11.7 [8.8 to 14.6] % per decade for June, over the 1967 to 2012 period. During this period, snow cover
extent in the Northern Hemisphere did not show a statistically significant increase in any month. {4.5}
There is high confidence that permafrost temperatures have increased in most regions since the early 1980s. Observed
warming was up to 3C in parts of Northern Alaska (early 1980s to mid-2000s) and up to 2C in parts of the Russian
European North (1971 to 2010). In the latter region, a considerable reduction in permafrost thickness and areal extent
has been observed over the period 1975 to 2005 (medium confidence). {4.7}
Multiple lines of evidence support very substantial Arctic warming since the mid-20th century. {Box 5.1, 10.3}
All references to ice loss or mass loss refer to net ice loss, i.e., accumulation minus melt and iceberg calving.
For methodological reasons, this assessment of ice loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets includes change in the glaciers on the periphery. These peripheral glaciers
are thus excluded from the values given for glaciers.
8
9
100 Gt yr1 of ice loss is equivalent to about 0.28 mm yr1 of global mean sea level rise.
10
(a)
Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover
(million km2)
45
SPM
40
35
30
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year
(b)
Arctic summer sea ice extent

14
(million km2)
12
10
8
6
4
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year
(c)
Change in global average upper ocean heat content

20
(1022 J)
10
0
10
20
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year
(d)
Global average sea level change

200
(mm)
150
100
50
0
50
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year
Figure SPM.3 | Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate: (a) Extent of Northern Hemisphere March-April (spring) average snow cover; (b)
extent of Arctic July-August-September (summer) average sea ice; (c) change in global mean upper ocean (0700 m) heat content aligned to 20062010,
and relative to the mean of all datasets for 1970; (d) global mean sea level relative to the 19001905 mean of the longest running dataset, and with all
datasets aligned to have the same value in 1993, the first year of satellite altimetry data. All time-series (coloured lines indicating different data sets) show
annual values, and where assessed, uncertainties are indicated by coloured shading. See Technical Summary Supplementary Material for a listing of the
datasets. {Figures 3.2, 3.13, 4.19, and 4.3; FAQ 2.1, Figure 2; Figure TS.1}
10
B.4 Sea Level

The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate
during the previous two millennia (high confidence). Over the period 1901 to 2010, global
mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m (see Figure SPM.3). {3.7, 5.6, 13.2}
SPM
Proxy and instrumental sea level data indicate a transition in the late 19th to the early 20th century from relatively low
mean rates of rise over the previous two millennia to higher rates of rise (high confidence). It is likely that the rate of
global mean sea level rise has continued to increase since the early 20th century. {3.7, 5.6, 13.2}
It is very likely that the mean rate of global averaged sea level rise was 1.7 [1.5 to 1.9] mm yr1 between 1901 and 2010,
2.0 [1.7 to 2.3] mm yr1 between 1971 and 2010, and 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6] mm yr1 between 1993 and 2010. Tide-gauge and
satellite altimeter data are consistent regarding the higher rate of the latter period. It is likely that similarly high rates
occurred between 1920 and 1950. {3.7}
Since the early 1970s, glacier mass loss and ocean thermal expansion from warming together explain about 75% of the
observed global mean sea level rise (high confidence). Over the period 1993 to 2010, global mean sea level rise is, with
high confidence, consistent with the sum of the observed contributions from ocean thermal expansion due to warming
(1.1 [0.8 to 1.4] mm yr1), from changes in glaciers (0.76 [0.39 to 1.13] mm yr1), Greenland ice sheet (0.33 [0.25 to 0.41]
mm yr1), Antarctic ice sheet (0.27 [0.16 to 0.38] mm yr1), and land water storage (0.38 [0.26 to 0.49] mm yr1). The sum
of these contributions is 2.8 [2.3 to 3.4] mm yr1. {13.3}
There is very high confidence that maximum global mean sea level during the last interglacial period (129,000 to 116,000
years ago) was, for several thousand years, at least 5 m higher than present, and high confidence that it did not exceed
10 m above present. During the last interglacial period, the Greenland ice sheet very likely contributed between 1.4 and
4.3 m to the higher global mean sea level, implying with medium confidence an additional contribution from the Antarctic
ice sheet. This change in sea level occurred in the context of different orbital forcing and with high-latitude surface
temperature, averaged over several thousand years, at least 2C warmer than present (high confidence). {5.3, 5.6}
B.5 Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles

The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have
increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Carbon dioxide
concentrations have increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel
emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions. The ocean has absorbed
about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification (see
Figure SPM.4). {2.2, 3.8, 5.2, 6.2, 6.3}
The atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O)
have all increased since 1750 due to human activity. In 2011 the concentrations of these greenhouse gases were 391
ppm11, 1803 ppb, and 324 ppb, and exceeded the pre-industrial levels by about 40%, 150%, and 20%, respectively. {2.2,
5.2, 6.1, 6.2}
Concentrations of CO2, CH4, and N2O now substantially exceed the highest concentrations recorded in ice cores during
the past 800,000 years. The mean rates of increase in atmospheric concentrations over the past century are, with very
high confidence, unprecedented in the last 22,000 years. {5.2, 6.1, 6.2}
ppm (parts per million) or ppb (parts per billion, 1 billion = 1,000 million) is the ratio of the number of gas molecules to the total number of molecules of dry air. For example,
300 ppm means 300 molecules of a gas per million molecules of dry air.
11
11
Annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production were 8.3 [7.6 to 9.0] GtC12 yr1 averaged over
20022011 (high confidence) and were 9.5 [8.7 to 10.3] GtC yr1 in 2011, 54% above the 1990 level. Annual net CO2
emissions from anthropogenic land use change were 0.9 [0.1 to 1.7] GtC yr1 on average during 2002 to 2011 (medium
confidence). {6.3}
From 1750 to 2011, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have released 375 [345 to 405]
GtC to the atmosphere, while deforestation and other land use change are estimated to have released 180 [100 to 260]
GtC. This results in cumulative anthropogenic emissions of 555 [470 to 640] GtC. {6.3}
SPM
Of these cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions, 240 [230 to 250] GtC have accumulated in the atmosphere, 155 [125
to 185] GtC have been taken up by the ocean and 160 [70 to 250] GtC have accumulated in natural terrestrial ecosystems
(i.e., the cumulative residual land sink). {Figure TS.4, 3.8, 6.3}
Ocean acidification is quantified by decreases in pH13. The pH of ocean surface water has decreased by 0.1 since the
beginning of the industrial era (high confidence), corresponding to a 26% increase in hydrogen ion concentration (see
Figure SPM.4). {3.8, Box 3.2}
(a)
Atmospheric CO2
400
CO2 (ppm)
380
360
340
320
300
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
pCO2 (atm)
(b)
Surface ocean CO2 and pH

400
380
360
340
8.12
8.09
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
8.06
in situ pH unit
320
Year
Figure SPM.4 | Multiple observed indicators of a changing global carbon cycle: (a) atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) from Mauna Loa
(1932N, 15534W red) and South Pole (8959S, 2448W black) since 1958; (b) partial pressure of dissolved CO2 at the ocean surface (blue curves)
and in situ pH (green curves), a measure of the acidity of ocean water. Measurements are from three stations from the Atlantic (2910N, 1530W dark
blue/dark green; 3140N, 6410W blue/green) and the Pacific Oceans (2245N, 15800W light blue/light green). Full details of the datasets shown
here are provided in the underlying report and the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figures 2.1 and 3.18; Figure TS.5}
1 Gigatonne of carbon = 1 GtC = 1015 grams of carbon. This corresponds to 3.667 GtCO2.
12
pH is a measure of acidity using a logarithmic scale: a pH decrease of 1 unit corresponds to a 10-fold increase in hydrogen ion concentration, or acidity.
13
12
C. Drivers of Climate Change

Natural and anthropogenic substances and processes that alter the Earths energy budget are drivers of climate change.
Radiative forcing14 (RF) quantifies the change in energy fluxes caused by changes in these drivers for 2011 relative to 1750,
unless otherwise indicated. Positive RF leads to surface warming, negative RF leads to surface cooling. RF is estimated based
on in-situ and remote observations, properties of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and calculations using numerical models
representing observed processes. Some emitted compounds affect the atmospheric concentration of other substances. The RF
can be reported based on the concentration changes of each substance15. Alternatively, the emission-based RF of a compound
can be reported, which provides a more direct link to human activities. It includes contributions from all substances affected
by that emission. The total anthropogenic RF of the two approaches are identical when considering all drivers. Though both
approaches are used in this Summary for Policymakers, emission-based RFs are emphasized.
SPM
Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system.
The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric
concentration of CO2 since 1750 (see Figure SPM.5). {3.2, Box 3.1, 8.3, 8.5}
The total anthropogenic RF for 2011 relative to 1750 is 2.29 [1.13 to 3.33] W m2 (see Figure SPM.5), and it has increased
more rapidly since 1970 than during prior decades. The total anthropogenic RF best estimate for 2011 is 43% higher than
that reported in AR4 for the year 2005. This is caused by a combination of continued growth in most greenhouse gas
concentrations and improved estimates of RF by aerosols indicating a weaker net cooling effect (negative RF). {8.5}
The RF from emissions of well-mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, and Halocarbons) for 2011 relative to 1750 is
3.00 [2.22 to 3.78] W m2 (see Figure SPM.5). The RF from changes in concentrations in these gases is 2.83 [2.26 to 3.40]
W m2. {8.5}
Emissions of CO2 alone have caused an RF of 1.68 [1.33 to 2.03] W m2 (see Figure SPM.5). Including emissions of other
carbon-containing gases, which also contributed to the increase in CO2 concentrations, the RF of CO2 is 1.82 [1.46 to
2.18] W m2. {8.3, 8.5}
Emissions of CH4 alone have caused an RF of 0.97 [0.74 to 1.20] W m2 (see Figure SPM.5). This is much larger than the
concentration-based estimate of 0.48 [0.38 to 0.58] W m2 (unchanged from AR4). This difference in estimates is caused
by concentration changes in ozone and stratospheric water vapour due to CH4 emissions and other emissions indirectly
affecting CH4. {8.3, 8.5}
Emissions of stratospheric ozone-depleting halocarbons have caused a net positive RF of 0.18 [0.01 to 0.35] W m2 (see
Figure SPM.5). Their own positive RF has outweighed the negative RF from the ozone depletion that they have induced.
The positive RF from all halocarbons is similar to the value in AR4, with a reduced RF from CFCs but increases from many
of their substitutes. {8.3, 8.5}
Emissions of short-lived gases contribute to the total anthropogenic RF. Emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) are virtually
certain to have induced a positive RF, while emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are likely to have induced a net negative
RF (see Figure SPM.5). {8.3, 8.5}
The RF of the total aerosol effect in the atmosphere, which includes cloud adjustments due to aerosols, is 0.9 [1.9 to
0.1] W m2 (medium confidence), and results from a negative forcing from most aerosols and a positive contribution
The strength of drivers is quantified as Radiative Forcing (RF) in units watts per square metre (W m2) as in previous IPCC assessments. RF is the change in energy flux
caused by a driver, and is calculated at the tropopause or at the top of the atmosphere. In the traditional RF concept employed in previous IPCC reports all surface and
tropospheric conditions are kept fixed. In calculations of RF for well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols in this report, physical variables, except for the ocean and sea
ice, are allowed to respond to perturbations with rapid adjustments. The resulting forcing is called Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) in the underlying report. This change
reflects the scientific progress from previous assessments and results in a better indication of the eventual temperature response for these drivers. For all drivers other than
well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, rapid adjustments are less well characterized and assumed to be small, and thus the traditional RF is used. {8.1}
14
This approach was used to report RF in the AR4 Summary for Policymakers.
15
13
from black carbon absorption of solar radiation. There is high confidence that aerosols and their interactions with clouds
have offset a substantial portion of global mean forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases. They continue to contribute
the largest uncertainty to the total RF estimate. {7.5, 8.3, 8.5}
The forcing from stratospheric volcanic aerosols can have a large impact on the climate for some years after volcanic
eruptions. Several small eruptions have caused an RF of 0.11 [0.15 to 0.08] W m2 for the years 2008 to 2011, which
is approximately twice as strong as during the years 1999 to 2002. {8.4}
SPM
The RF due to changes in solar irradiance is estimated as 0.05 [0.00 to 0.10] W m2 (see Figure SPM.5). Satellite observations of total solar irradiance changes from 1978 to 2011 indicate that the last solar minimum was lower than the
previous two. This results in an RF of 0.04 [0.08 to 0.00] W m2 between the most recent minimum in 2008 and the
1986 minimum. {8.4}
The total natural RF from solar irradiance changes and stratospheric volcanic aerosols made only a small contribution to
the net radiative forcing throughout the last century, except for brief periods after large volcanic eruptions. {8.5}
Anthropogenic
Natural
Short lived gases and aerosols
Well-mixed greenhouse gases
Emitted
compound
Resulting atmospheric
drivers
Radiative forcing by emissions and drivers
Level of
confidence
CO2
CO2
1.68 [1.33 to 2.03]
VH
CH4
CO2 H2Ostr O3 CH4
0.97 [0.74 to 1.20]
Halocarbons
O3 CFCs HCFCs
0.18 [0.01 to 0.35]
N 2O
N 2O
0.17 [0.13 to 0.21]
VH
CO
CO2
CH4 O3
0.23 [0.16 to 0.30]
NMVOC
CO2
CH4 O3
0.10 [0.05 to 0.15]
NOx
Nitrate CH4 O3
-0.15 [-0.34 to 0.03]
-0.27 [-0.77 to 0.23]
Cloud adjustments
due to aerosols
-0.55 [-1.33 to -0.06]
Albedo change
due to land use
-0.15 [-0.25 to -0.05]
Changes in
solar irradiance
0.05 [0.00 to 0.10]
Aerosols and
precursors
(Mineral dust,
SO2, NH3,
Organic carbon
and Black carbon)
Mineral dust Sulphate Nitrate

Organic carbon Black carbon
2011
Total anthropogenic
RF relative to 1750
1
2.29 [1.13 to 3.33]
1980
1.25 [0.64 to 1.86]
1950
0.57 [0.29 to 0.85]
0
1
2
3
Radiative forcing relative to 1750 (W m2)
Figure SPM.5 | Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750 and aggregated uncertainties for the main drivers of climate change. Values are
global average radiative forcing (RF14), partitioned according to the emitted compounds or processes that result in a combination of drivers. The best estimates of the net radiative forcing are shown as black diamonds with corresponding uncertainty intervals; the numerical values are provided on the right
of the figure, together with the confidence level in the net forcing (VH very high, H high, M medium, L low, VL very low). Albedo forcing due to
black carbon on snow and ice is included in the black carbon aerosol bar. Small forcings due to contrails (0.05 W m2, including contrail induced cirrus),
and HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (total 0.03 W m2) are not shown. Concentration-based RFs for gases can be obtained by summing the like-coloured bars. Volcanic
forcing is not included as its episodic nature makes is difficult to compare to other forcing mechanisms. Total anthropogenic radiative forcing is provided
for three different years relative to 1750. For further technical details, including uncertainty ranges associated with individual components and processes,
see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {8.5; Figures 8.148.18; Figures TS.6 and TS.7}
14
D. Understanding the Climate System and its Recent Changes

Understanding recent changes in the climate system results from combining observations, studies of feedback processes, and
model simulations. Evaluation of the ability of climate models to simulate recent changes requires consideration of the state
of all modelled climate system components at the start of the simulation and the natural and anthropogenic forcing used to
drive the models. Compared to AR4, more detailed and longer observations and improved climate models now enable the
attribution of a human contribution to detected changes in more climate system components.
SPM
Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and
understanding of the climate system. {214}
D.1 Evaluation of Climate Models

Climate models have improved since the AR4. Models reproduce observed continentalscale surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades, including the more rapid
warming since the mid-20th century and the cooling immediately following large volcanic
eruptions (very high confidence). {9.4, 9.6, 9.8}
The long-term climate model simulations show a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that
agrees with the observed trend (very high confidence). There are, however, differences between simulated and observed
trends over periods as short as 10 to 15 years (e.g., 1998 to 2012). {9.4, Box 9.2}
The observed reduction in surface warming trend over the period 1998 to 2012 as compared to the period 1951 to 2012,
is due in roughly equal measure to a reduced trend in radiative forcing and a cooling contribution from natural internal
variability, which includes a possible redistribution of heat within the ocean (medium confidence). The reduced trend
in radiative forcing is primarily due to volcanic eruptions and the timing of the downward phase of the 11-year solar
cycle. However, there is low confidence in quantifying the role of changes in radiative forcing in causing the reduced
warming trend. There is medium confidence that natural internal decadal variability causes to a substantial degree the
difference between observations and the simulations; the latter are not expected to reproduce the timing of natural
internal variability. There may also be a contribution from forcing inadequacies and, in some models, an overestimate of
the response to increasing greenhouse gas and other anthropogenic forcing (dominated by the effects of aerosols). {9.4,
Box 9.2, 10.3, Box 10.2, 11.3}
On regional scales, the confidence in model capability to simulate surface temperature is less than for the larger scales.
However, there is high confidence that regional-scale surface temperature is better simulated than at the time of the AR4.
{9.4, 9.6}
There has been substantial progress in the assessment of extreme weather and climate events since AR4. Simulated
global-mean trends in the frequency of extreme warm and cold days and nights over the second half of the 20th century
are generally consistent with observations. {9.5}
There has been some improvement in the simulation of continental-scale patterns of precipitation since the AR4. At
regional scales, precipitation is not simulated as well, and the assessment is hampered by observational uncertainties.
{9.4, 9.6}
Some important climate phenomena are now better reproduced by models. There is high confidence that the statistics of
monsoon and El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on multi-model simulations have improved since AR4. {9.5}
15
Climate models now include more cloud and aerosol processes, and their interactions, than at the time of the AR4, but
there remains low confidence in the representation and quantification of these processes in models. {7.3, 7.6, 9.4, 9.7}
There is robust evidence that the downward trend in Arctic summer sea ice extent since 1979 is now reproduced by more
models than at the time of the AR4, with about one-quarter of the models showing a trend as large as, or larger than,
the trend in the observations. Most models simulate a small downward trend in Antarctic sea ice extent, albeit with large
inter-model spread, in contrast to the small upward trend in observations. {9.4}
SPM
Many models reproduce the observed changes in upper-ocean heat content (0700 m) from 1961 to 2005 (high
confidence), with the multi-model mean time series falling within the range of the available observational estimates for
most of the period. {9.4}
Climate models that include the carbon cycle (Earth System Models) simulate the global pattern of ocean-atmosphere
CO2 fluxes, with outgassing in the tropics and uptake in the mid and high latitudes. In the majority of these models the
sizes of the simulated global land and ocean carbon sinks over the latter part of the 20th century are within the range of
observational estimates. {9.4}
D.2 Quantification of Climate System Responses

Observational and model studies of temperature change, climate feedbacks and changes in
the Earths energy budget together provide confidence in the magnitude of global warming
in response to past and future forcing. {Box 12.2, Box 13.1}
The net feedback from the combined effect of changes in water vapour, and differences between atmospheric and
surface warming is extremely likely positive and therefore amplifies changes in climate. The net radiative feedback due to
all cloud types combined is likely positive. Uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of the cloud feedback is due primarily
to continuing uncertainty in the impact of warming on low clouds. {7.2}
The equilibrium climate sensitivity quantifies the response of the climate system to constant radiative forcing on multicentury time scales. It is defined as the change in global mean surface temperature at equilibrium that is caused by a
doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely in the range 1.5C to 4.5C (high
confidence), extremely unlikely less than 1C (high confidence), and very unlikely greater than 6C (medium confidence)16.
The lower temperature limit of the assessed likely range is thus less than the 2C in the AR4, but the upper limit is the
same. This assessment reflects improved understanding, the extended temperature record in the atmosphere and ocean,
and new estimates of radiative forcing. {TS TFE.6, Figure 1; Box 12.2}
The rate and magnitude of global climate change is determined by radiative forcing, climate feedbacks and the storage
of energy by the climate system. Estimates of these quantities for recent decades are consistent with the assessed
likely range of the equilibrium climate sensitivity to within assessed uncertainties, providing strong evidence for our
understanding of anthropogenic climate change. {Box 12.2, Box 13.1}
The transient climate response quantifies the response of the climate system to an increasing radiative forcing on a decadal
to century timescale. It is defined as the change in global mean surface temperature at the time when the atmospheric CO2
concentration has doubled in a scenario of concentration increasing at 1% per year. The transient climate response is likely
in the range of 1.0C to 2.5C (high confidence) and extremely unlikely greater than 3C. {Box 12.2}
A related quantity is the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE). It quantifies the transient
response of the climate system to cumulative carbon emissions (see S ection E.8). TCRE is defined as the global mean
No best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies.
16
16
s urface temperature change per 1000 GtC emitted to the atmosphere. TCRE is likely in the range of 0.8C to 2.5C per
1000 GtC and applies for cumulative emissions up to about 2000 GtC until the time temperatures peak (see Figure
SPM.10). {12.5, Box 12.2}
Various metrics can be used to compare the contributions to climate change of emissions of different substances. The
most appropriate metric and time horizon will depend on which aspects of climate change are considered most important
to a particular application. No single metric can accurately compare all consequences of different emissions, and all have
limitations and uncertainties. The Global Warming Potential is based on the cumulative radiative forcing over a particular
time horizon, and the Global Temperature Change Potential is based on the change in global mean surface temperature
at a chosen point in time. Updated values are provided in the underlying Report. {8.7}
SPM
D.3 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change

Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes
in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and
in changes in some climate extremes (see Figure SPM.6 and Table SPM.1). This evidence for
human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been
the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. {10.310.6, 10.9}
It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to
2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings
together. The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this
period. {10.3}
Greenhouse gases contributed a global mean surface warming likely to be in the range of 0.5C to 1.3C over the period
1951 to 2010, with the contributions from other anthropogenic forcings, including the cooling effect of aerosols, likely to
be in the range of 0.6C to 0.1C. The contribution from natural forcings is likely to be in the range of 0.1C to 0.1C,
and from natural internal variability is likely to be in the range of 0.1C to 0.1C. Together these assessed contributions
are consistent with the observed warming of approximately 0.6C to 0.7C over this period. {10.3}
Over every continental region except Antarctica, anthropogenic forcings have likely made a substantial contribution to
surface temperature increases since the mid-20th century (see Figure SPM.6). For Antarctica, large observational uncertainties result in low confidence that anthropogenic forcings have contributed to the observed warming averaged over
available stations. It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic contribution to the very substantial Arctic warming
since the mid-20th century. {2.4, 10.3}
It is very likely that anthropogenic influence, particularly greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion, has led
to a detectable observed pattern of tropospheric warming and a corresponding cooling in the lower stratosphere since
1961. {2.4, 9.4, 10.3}
It is very likely that anthropogenic forcings have made a substantial contribution to increases in global upper ocean heat
content (0700 m) observed since the 1970s (see Figure SPM.6). There is evidence for human influence in some individual
ocean basins. {3.2, 10.4}
It is likely that anthropogenic influences have affected the global water cycle since 1960. Anthropogenic influences have
contributed to observed increases in atmospheric moisture content in the atmosphere (medium confidence), to globalscale changes in precipitation patterns over land (medium confidence), to intensification of heavy precipitation over land
regions where data are sufficient (medium confidence), and to changes in surface and sub-surface ocean salinity (very
likely). {2.5, 2.6, 3.3, 7.6, 10.3, 10.4}
17
SPM
Global averages
Land surface
Observations
Land and ocean surface
Ocean heat content
Models using only natural forcings

Models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings
Figure SPM.6 | Comparison of observed and simulated climate change based on three large-scale indicators in the atmosphere, the cryosphere and
the ocean: change in continental land surface air temperatures (yellow panels), Arctic and Antarctic September sea ice extent (white panels), and upper
ocean heat content in the major ocean basins (blue panels). Global average changes are also given. Anomalies are given relative to 18801919 for surface
temperatures, 19601980 for ocean heat content and 19791999 for sea ice. All time-series are decadal averages, plotted at the centre of the decade.
For temperature panels, observations are dashed lines if the spatial coverage of areas being examined is below 50%. For ocean heat content and sea ice
panels the solid line is where the coverage of data is good and higher in quality, and the dashed line is where the data coverage is only adequate, and
thus, uncertainty is larger. Model results shown are Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble ranges, with shaded
bands indicating the 5 to 95% confidence intervals. For further technical details, including region definitions see the Technical Summary Supplementary
Material. {Figure 10.21; Figure TS.12}
18
There has been further strengthening of the evidence for human influence on temperature extremes since the SREX. It
is now very likely that human influence has contributed to observed global scale changes in the frequency and intensity
of daily temperature extremes since the mid-20th century, and likely that human influence has more than doubled the
probability of occurrence of heat waves in some locations (see Table SPM.1). {10.6}
Anthropogenic influences have very likely contributed to Arctic sea ice loss since 1979. There is low confidence in the
scientific understanding of the small observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent due to the incomplete and competing
scientific explanations for the causes of change and low confidence in estimates of natural internal variability in that
region (see Figure SPM.6). {10.5}
SPM
Anthropogenic influences likely contributed to the retreat of glaciers since the 1960s and to the increased surface mass
loss of the Greenland ice sheet since 1993. Due to a low level of scientific understanding there is low confidence in
attributing the causes of the observed loss of mass from the Antarctic ice sheet over the past two decades. {4.3, 10.5}
It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic contribution to observed reductions in Northern Hemisphere spring snow
cover since 1970. {10.5}
It is very likely that there is a substantial anthropogenic contribution to the global mean sea level rise since the 1970s.
This is based on the high confidence in an anthropogenic influence on the two largest contributions to sea level rise, that
is thermal expansion and glacier mass loss. {10.4, 10.5, 13.3}
There is high confidence that changes in total solar irradiance have not contributed to the increase in global mean
surface temperature over the period 1986 to 2008, based on direct satellite measurements of total solar irradiance. There
is medium confidence that the 11-year cycle of solar variability influences decadal climate fluctuations in some regions.
No robust association between changes in cosmic rays and cloudiness has been identified. {7.4, 10.3, Box 10.2}
E. Future Global and Regional Climate Change

Projections of changes in the climate system are made using a hierarchy of climate models ranging from simple climate
models, to models of intermediate complexity, to comprehensive climate models, and Earth System Models. These models
simulate changes based on a set of scenarios of anthropogenic forcings. A new set of scenarios, the Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was used for the new climate model simulations carried out under the framework of the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) of the World Climate Research Programme. In all RCPs, atmospheric
CO2 concentrations are higher in 2100 relative to present day as a result of a further increase of cumulative emissions of
CO2 to the atmosphere during the 21st century (see Box SPM.1). Projections in this Summary for Policymakers are for the
end of the 21st century (20812100) given relative to 19862005, unless otherwise stated. To place such projections in
historical context, it is necessary to consider observed changes between different periods. Based on the longest global
surface temperature dataset available, the observed change between the average of the period 18501900 and of the AR5
reference period is 0.61 [0.55 to 0.67] C. However, warming has occurred beyond the average of the AR5 reference period.
Hence this is not an estimate of historical warming to present (see Chapter 2) .
Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all
components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and
sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. {6, 1114}
Projections for the next few decades show spatial patterns of climate change similar to those projected for the later
21st century but with smaller magnitude. Natural internal variability will continue to be a major influence on climate,
particularly in the near-term and at the regional scale. By the mid-21st century the magnitudes of the projected changes
are substantially affected by the choice of emissions scenario (Box SPM.1). {11.3, Box 11.1, Annex I}
19
Projected climate change based on RCPs is similar to AR4 in both patterns and magnitude, after accounting for scenario
differences. The overall spread of projections for the high RCPs is narrower than for comparable scenarios used in AR4
because in contrast to the SRES emission scenarios used in AR4, the RCPs used in AR5 are defined as concentration
pathways and thus carbon cycle uncertainties affecting atmospheric CO2 concentrations are not considered in the
concentration-driven CMIP5 simulations. Projections of sea level rise are larger than in the AR4, primarily because of
improved modelling of land-ice contributions.{11.3, 12.3, 12.4, 13.4, 13.5}
SPM
E.1 Atmosphere: Temperature

Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed
1.5C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. It is likely to exceed 2C
for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, and more likely than not to exceed 2C for RCP4.5. Warming will
continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. Warming will continue to
exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability and will not be regionally uniform (see Figures
SPM.7 and SPM.8). {11.3, 12.3, 12.4, 14.8}
The global mean surface temperature change for the period 20162035 relative to 19862005 will likely be in the range
of 0.3C to 0.7C (medium confidence). This assessment is based on multiple lines of evidence and assumes there will be
no major volcanic eruptions or secular changes in total solar irradiance. Relative to natural internal variability, near-term
increases in seasonal mean and annual mean temperatures are expected to be larger in the tropics and subtropics than
in mid-latitudes (high confidence). {11.3}
Increase of global mean surface temperatures for 20812100 relative to 19862005 is projected to likely be in the
ranges derived from the concentration-driven CMIP5 model simulations, that is, 0.3C to 1.7C (RCP2.6), 1.1C to 2.6C
(RCP4.5), 1.4C to 3.1C (RCP6.0), 2.6C to 4.8C (RCP8.5). The Arctic region will warm more rapidly than the global
mean, and mean warming over land will be larger than over the ocean (very high confidence) (see Figures SPM.7 and
SPM.8, and Table SPM.2). {12.4, 14.8}
Relative to the average from year 1850 to 1900, global surface temperature change by the end of the 21st century is
projected to likely exceed 1.5C for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high confidence). Warming is likely to exceed 2C for
RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high confidence), more likely than not to exceed 2C for RCP4.5 (high confidence), but unlikely to
exceed 2C for RCP2.6 (medium confidence). Warming is unlikely to exceed 4C for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 (high
confidence) and is about as likely as not to exceed 4C for RCP8.5 (medium confidence). {12.4}
It is virtually certain that there will be more frequent hot and fewer cold temperature extremes over most land areas on
daily and seasonal timescales as global mean temperatures increase. It is very likely that heat waves will occur with a
higher frequency and duration. Occasional cold winter extremes will continue to occur (see Table SPM.1). {12.4}
E.2 Atmosphere: Water Cycle

Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st century will not
be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet
and dry seasons will increase, although there may be regional exceptions (see Figure SPM.8).
{12.4, 14.3}
Projected changes in the water cycle over the next few decades show similar large-scale patterns to those towards the
end of the century, but with smaller magnitude. Changes in the near-term, and at the regional scale will be strongly
influenced by natural internal variability and may be affected by anthropogenic aerosol emissions. {11.3}
20
Global average surface temperature change

historical
RCP2.6
RCP8.5
39
2.0
1950
(b)
10.0
2000
2100
Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent

39 (5)
8.0
6.0
29 (3)
4.0
(c)
2000
2050
2100
RCP8.5
0.0
1950
RCP6.0
37 (5)
2.0
RCP2.6
Global ocean surface pH

8.2
12
RCP2.6
8.0
10
7.8
7.6
1950
2000
Year
2050
RCP8.5
RCP6.0
(106 km2)
2050
RCP2.6
32
RCP6.0
42
RCP4.5
2.0
0.0
(pH unit)
SPM
RCP4.5
(oC)
4.0
Mean over
20812100
RCP8.5
6.0
RCP4.5
(a)
2100
Figure SPM.7 | CMIP5 multi-model simulated time series from 1950 to 2100 for (a) change in global annual mean surface temperature relative to
19862005, (b) Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent (5-year running mean), and (c) global mean ocean surface pH. Time series of projections
and a measure of uncertainty (shading) are shown for scenarios RCP2.6 (blue) and RCP8.5 (red). Black (grey shading) is the modelled historical evolution
using historical reconstructed forcings. The mean and associated uncertainties averaged over 20812100 are given for all RCP scenarios as colored vertical bars. The numbers of CMIP5 models used to calculate the multi-model mean is indicated. For sea ice extent (b), the projected mean and uncertainty
(minimum-maximum range) of the subset of models that most closely reproduce the climatological mean state and 1979 to 2012 trend of the Arctic sea
ice is given (number of models given in brackets). For completeness, the CMIP5 multi-model mean is also indicated with dotted lines. The dashed line
represents nearly ice-free conditions (i.e., when sea ice extent is less than 106 km2 for at least five consecutive years). For further technical details see the
Technical Summary Supplementary Material {Figures 6.28, 12.5, and 12.2812.31; Figures TS.15, TS.17, and TS.20}
21
(a)
RCP 2.6
RCP 8.5
Change in average surface temperature (19862005 to 20812100)
32
39
SPM
(C)
2
(b)
1.5
0.5
0.5
1.5
11
Change in average precipitation (19862005 to 20812100)

32
50
(c)
40
30
20
10
39
10
20
30
40
(%)
50
Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent (average 20812100)

29 (3)
CMIP5 multi-model
average 19862005
CMIP5 multi-model
average 20812100
37 (5)
CMIP5 subset
average 19862005
CMIP5 subset
average 20812100
(d)
Change in ocean surface pH (19862005 to 20812100)

9
0.6 0.55 0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05
10
(pH unit)
Figure SPM.8 | Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results for the scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in 20812100 of (a) annual mean surface temperature
change, (b) average percent change in annual mean precipitation, (c) Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent, and (d) change in ocean surface pH.
Changes in panels (a), (b) and (d) are shown relative to 19862005. The number of CMIP5 models used to calculate the multi-model mean is indicated in
the upper right corner of each panel. For panels (a) and (b), hatching indicates regions where the multi-model mean is small compared to natural internal
variability (i.e., less than one standard deviation of natural internal variability in 20-year means). Stippling indicates regions where the multi-model mean is
large compared to natural internal variability (i.e., greater than two standard deviations of natural internal variability in 20-year means) and where at least
90% of models agree on the sign of change (see Box 12.1). In panel (c), the lines are the modelled means for 19862005; the filled areas are for the end
of the century. The CMIP5 multi-model mean is given in white colour, the projected mean sea ice extent of a subset of models (number of models given in
brackets) that most closely reproduce the climatological mean state and 1979 to 2012 trend of the Arctic sea ice extent is given in light blue colour. For
further technical details see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figures 6.28, 12.11, 12.22, and 12.29; Figures TS.15, TS.16, TS.17, and TS.20}
22
The high latitudes and the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to experience an increase in annual mean precipitation by
the end of this century under the RCP8.5 scenario. In many mid-latitude and subtropical dry regions, mean precipitation
will likely decrease, while in many mid-latitude wet regions, mean precipitation will likely increase by the end of this
century under the RCP8.5 scenario (see Figure SPM.8). {7.6, 12.4, 14.3}
Extreme precipitation events over most of the mid-latitude land masses and over wet tropical regions will very likely
become more intense and more frequent by the end of this century, as global mean surface temperature increases (see
Table SPM.1). {7.6, 12.4}
SPM
Globally, it is likely that the area encompassed by monsoon systems will increase over the 21st century. While monsoon
winds are likely to weaken, monsoon precipitation is likely to intensify due to the increase in atmospheric moisture.
Monsoon onset dates are likely to become earlier or not to change much. Monsoon retreat dates will likely be delayed,
resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season in many regions. {14.2}
There is high confidence that the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will remain the dominant mode of interannual
variability in the tropical Pacific, with global effects in the 21st century. Due to the increase in moisture availability, ENSOrelated precipitation variability on regional scales will likely intensify. Natural variations of the amplitude and spatial
pattern of ENSO are large and thus confidence in any specific projected change in ENSO and related regional phenomena
for the 21st century remains low. {5.4, 14.4}
Table SPM.2 | Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid- and late 21st century relative to the
reference period of 19862005. {12.4; Table 12.2, Table 13.5}
20462065
Global Mean Surface

Temperature Change (C) a
Global Mean Sea Level

Rise (m)b
20812100
Scenario
Mean
Likely range
Mean
Likely rangec
RCP2.6
1.0
0.4 to 1.6
1.0
0.3 to 1.7
RCP4.5
1.4
0.9 to 2.0
1.8
1.1 to 2.6
RCP6.0
1.3
0.8 to 1.8
2.2
1.4 to 3.1
RCP8.5
2.0
1.4 to 2.6
3.7
2.6 to 4.8
Scenario
Mean
Likely range
Mean
Likely ranged
RCP2.6
0.24
0.17 to 0.32
0.40
0.26 to 0.55
RCP4.5
0.26
0.19 to 0.33
0.47
0.32 to 0.63
RCP6.0
0.25
0.18 to 0.32
0.48
0.33 to 0.63
RCP8.5
0.30
0.22 to 0.38
0.63
0.45 to 0.82
Notes:
Based on the CMIP5 ensemble; anomalies calculated with respect to 19862005. Using HadCRUT4 and its uncertainty estimate (595% confidence interval), the
observed warming to the reference period 19862005 is 0.61 [0.55 to 0.67] C from 18501900, and 0.11 [0.09 to 0.13] C from 19801999, the reference period
for projections used in AR4. Likely ranges have not been assessed here with respect to earlier reference periods because methods are not generally available in the
literature for combining the uncertainties in models and observations. Adding projected and observed changes does not account for potential effects of model biases
compared to observations, and for natural internal variability during the observational reference period {2.4; 11.2; Tables 12.2 and 12.3}
Based on 21 CMIP5 models; anomalies calculated with respect to 19862005. Where CMIP5 results were not available for a particular AOGCM and scenario, they
were estimated as explained in Chapter 13, Table 13.5. The contributions from ice sheet rapid dynamical change and anthropogenic land water storage are treated as
having uniform probability distributions, and as largely independent of scenario. This treatment does not imply that the contributions concerned will not depend on the
scenario followed, only that the current state of knowledge does not permit a quantitative assessment of the dependence. Based on current understanding, only the
collapse of marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if initiated, could cause global mean sea level to rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st
century. There is medium confidence that this additional contribution would not exceed several tenths of a meter of sea level rise during the 21st century.
Calculated from projections as 595% model ranges. These ranges are then assessed to be likely ranges after accounting for additional uncertainties or different levels
of confidence in models. For projections of global mean surface temperature change in 20462065 confidence is medium, because the relative importance of natural
internal variability, and uncertainty in non-greenhouse gas forcing and response, are larger than for 20812100. The likely ranges for 20462065 do not take into
account the possible influence of factors that lead to the assessed range for near-term (20162035) global mean surface temperature change that is lower than the
595% model range, because the influence of these factors on longer term projections has not been quantified due to insufficient scientific understanding. {11.3}
Calculated from projections as 595% model ranges. These ranges are then assessed to be likely ranges after accounting for additional uncertainties or different levels
of confidence in models. For projections of global mean sea level rise confidence is medium for both time horizons.
23
E.3 Atmosphere: Air Quality

The range in projections of air quality (ozone and PM2.517 in near-surface air) is driven primarily by emissions (including
CH4), rather than by physical climate change (medium confidence). There is high confidence that globally, warming
decreases background surface ozone. High CH4 levels (as in RCP8.5) can offset this decrease, raising background surface
ozone by year 2100 on average by about 8 ppb (25% of current levels) relative to scenarios with small CH4 changes (as
in RCP4.5 and RCP6.0) (high confidence). {11.3}
SPM
Observational and modelling evidence indicates that, all else being equal, locally higher surface temperatures in polluted
regions will trigger regional feedbacks in chemistry and local emissions that will increase peak levels of ozone and PM2.5
(medium confidence). For PM2.5, climate change may alter natural aerosol sources as well as removal by precipitation,
but no confidence level is attached to the overall impact of climate change on PM2.5 distributions. {11.3}
E.4 Ocean
The global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century. Heat will penetrate from
the surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation. {11.3, 12.4}
The strongest ocean warming is projected for the surface in tropical and Northern Hemisphere subtropical regions. At
greater depth the warming will be most pronounced in the Southern Ocean (high confidence). Best estimates of ocean
warming in the top one hundred meters are about 0.6C (RCP2.6) to 2.0C (RCP8.5), and about 0.3C (RCP2.6) to 0.6C
(RCP8.5) at a depth of about 1000 m by the end of the 21st century. {12.4, 14.3}
It is very likely that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken over the 21st century. Best
estimates and ranges18 for the reduction are 11% (1 to 24%) in RCP2.6 and 34% (12 to 54%) in RCP8.5. It is likely that
there will be some decline in the AMOC by about 2050, but there may be some decades when the AMOC increases due
to large natural internal variability. {11.3, 12.4}
It is very unlikely that the AMOC will undergo an abrupt transition or collapse in the 21st century for the scenarios
considered. There is low confidence in assessing the evolution of the AMOC beyond the 21st century because of the
limited number of analyses and equivocal results. However, a collapse beyond the 21st century for large sustained
warming cannot be excluded. {12.5}
E.5 Cryosphere
It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin and that Northern
Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease during the 21st century as global mean surface
temperature rises. Global glacier volume will further decrease. {12.4, 13.4}
Year-round reductions in Arctic sea ice extent are projected by the end of the 21st century from multi-model averages.
These reductions range from 43% for RCP2.6 to 94% for RCP8.5 in September and from 8% for RCP2.6 to 34% for
RCP8.5 in February (medium confidence) (see Figures SPM.7 and SPM.8). {12.4}
PM2.5 refers to particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometres, a measure of atmospheric aerosol concentration.
17
The ranges in this paragraph indicate a CMIP5 model spread.
18
24
Based on an assessment of the subset of models that most closely reproduce the climatological mean state and 1979
to 2012 trend of the Arctic sea ice extent, a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean19 in September before mid-century is likely for
RCP8.5 (medium confidence) (see Figures SPM.7 and SPM.8). A projection of when the Arctic might become nearly icefree in September in the 21st century cannot be made with confidence for the other scenarios. {11.3, 12.4, 12.5}
In the Antarctic, a decrease in sea ice extent and volume is projected with low confidence for the end of the 21st century
as global mean surface temperature rises. {12.4}
SPM
By the end of the 21st century, the global glacier volume, excluding glaciers on the periphery of Antarctica, is projected
to decrease by 15 to 55% for RCP2.6, and by 35 to 85% for RCP8.5 (medium confidence). {13.4, 13.5}
The area of Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover is projected to decrease by 7% for RCP2.6 and by 25% in RCP8.5 by
the end of the 21st century for the model average (medium confidence). {12.4}
It is virtually certain that near-surface permafrost extent at high northern latitudes will be reduced as global mean
surface temperature increases. By the end of the 21st century, the area of permafrost near the surface (upper 3.5 m) is
projected to decrease by between 37% (RCP2.6) to 81% (RCP8.5) for the model average (medium confidence). {12.4}
E.6 Sea Level

Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century (see Figure SPM.9). Under
all RCP scenarios, the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971
to 2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice
sheets. {13.313.5}
Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise has increased since the AR4 because of the improved physical
understanding of the components of sea level, the improved agreement of process-based models with observations, and
the inclusion of ice-sheet dynamical changes. {13.313.5}
Global mean sea level rise for 20812100 relative to 19862005 will likely be in the ranges of 0.26 to 0.55 m for RCP2.6,
0.32 to 0.63 m for RCP4.5, 0.33 to 0.63 m for RCP6.0, and 0.45 to 0.82 m for RCP8.5 (medium confidence). For RCP8.5,
the rise by the year 2100 is 0.52 to 0.98 m, with a rate during 2081 to 2100 of 8 to 16 mm yr1 (medium confidence).
These ranges are derived from CMIP5 climate projections in combination with process-based models and literature
assessment of glacier and ice sheet contributions (see Figure SPM.9, Table SPM.2). {13.5}
In the RCP projections, thermal expansion accounts for 30 to 55% of 21st century global mean sea level rise, and glaciers
for 15 to 35%. The increase in surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet will exceed the increase in snowfall, leading to
a positive contribution from changes in surface mass balance to future sea level (high confidence). While surface melting will remain small, an increase in snowfall on the Antarctic ice sheet is expected (medium confidence), resulting in a
negative contribution to future sea level from changes in surface mass balance. Changes in outflow from both ice sheets
combined will likely make a contribution in the range of 0.03 to 0.20 m by 20812100 (medium confidence). {13.313.5}
Based on current understanding, only the collapse of marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if initiated, could
cause global mean sea level to rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. However, there is
medium confidence that this additional contribution would not exceed several tenths of a meter of sea level rise during
the 21st century. {13.4, 13.5}
Conditions in the Arctic Ocean are referred to as nearly ice-free when the sea ice extent is less than 106 km2 for at least five consecutive years.
19
25
1.0
Global mean sea level rise

Mean over
20812100
0.8
SPM
(m)
0.6
0.0
2000
2020
2040
2060
Year
2080
RCP6.0
0.2
RCP4.5
RCP2.6
RCP8.5
0.4
2100
Figure SPM.9 | Projections of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century relative to 19862005 from the combination of the CMIP5 ensemble
with process-based models, for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The assessed likely range is shown as a shaded band. The assessed likely ranges for the mean
over the period 20812100 for all RCP scenarios are given as coloured vertical bars, with the corresponding median value given as a horizontal
line. For further technical details see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material {Table 13.5, Figures 13.10 and 13.11; Figures TS.21 and TS.22}
The basis for higher projections of global mean sea level rise in the 21st century has been considered and it has been
concluded that there is currently insufficient evidence to evaluate the probability of specific levels above the assessed
likely range. Many semi-empirical model projections of global mean sea level rise are higher than process-based model
projections (up to about twice as large), but there is no consensus in the scientific community about their reliability and
there is thus low confidence in their projections. {13.5}
Sea level rise will not be uniform. By the end of the 21st century, it is very likely that sea level will rise in more than about
95% of the ocean area. About 70% of the coastlines worldwide are projected to experience sea level change within 20%
of the global mean sea level change. {13.1, 13.6}
E.7 Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles

Climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase
of CO2 in the atmosphere (high confidence). Further uptake of carbon by the ocean will
increase ocean acidification. {6.4}
Ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 will continue under all four RCPs through to 2100, with higher uptake for higher
concentration pathways (very high confidence). The future evolution of the land carbon uptake is less certain. A majority
of models projects a continued land carbon uptake under all RCPs, but some models simulate a land carbon loss due to
the combined effect of climate change and land use change. {6.4}
Based on Earth System Models, there is high confidence that the feedback between climate and the carbon cycle is
positive in the 21st century; that is, climate change will partially offset increases in land and ocean carbon sinks caused
by rising atmospheric CO2. As a result more of the emitted anthropogenic CO2 will remain in the atmosphere. A positive
feedback between climate and the carbon cycle on century to millennial time scales is supported by paleoclimate
observations and modelling. {6.2, 6.4}
26
Table SPM.3 | Cumulative CO2 emissions for the 2012 to 2100 period compatible with the RCP atmospheric concentrations simulated by the CMIP5
Earth System Models. {6.4, Table 6.12, Figure TS.19}
Cumulative CO2 Emissions 2012 to 2100a

Scenario
GtC
GtCO2
Mean
Range
Mean
Range
270
140 to 410
990
510 to 1505
RCP4.5
780
595 to 1005
2860
2180 to 3690
RCP6.0
1060
840 to 1250
3885
3080 to 4585
RCP8.5
1685
1415 to 1910
6180
5185 to 7005
RCP2.6
SPM
Notes:
a
1 Gigatonne of carbon = 1 GtC = 1015 grams of carbon. This corresponds to 3.667 GtCO2.
Earth System Models project a global increase in ocean acidification for all RCP scenarios. The corresponding decrease in
surface ocean pH by the end of 21st century is in the range18 of 0.06 to 0.07 for RCP2.6, 0.14 to 0.15 for RCP4.5, 0.20 to
0.21 for RCP6.0, and 0.30 to 0.32 for RCP8.5 (see Figures SPM.7 and SPM.8). {6.4}
Cumulative CO2 emissions20 for the 2012 to 2100 period compatible with the RCP atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as
derived from 15 Earth System Models, range18 from 140 to 410 GtC for RCP2.6, 595 to 1005 GtC for RCP4.5, 840 to 1250
GtC for RCP6.0, and 1415 to 1910 GtC for RCP8.5 (see Table SPM.3). {6.4}
By 2050, annual CO2 emissions derived from Earth System Models following RCP2.6 are smaller than 1990 emissions (by
14 to 96%). By the end of the 21st century, about half of the models infer emissions slightly above zero, while the other
half infer a net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. {6.4, Figure TS.19}
The release of CO2 or CH4 to the atmosphere from thawing permafrost carbon stocks over the 21st century is assessed to
be in the range of 50 to 250 GtC for RCP8.5 (low confidence). {6.4}
E.8 Climate Stabilization, Climate Change Commitment and Irreversibility

Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st
century and beyond (see Figure SPM.10). Most aspects of climate change will persist for many
centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century
climate change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2. {12.5}
Cumulative total emissions of CO2 and global mean surface temperature response are approximately linearly related (see
Figure SPM.10). Any given level of warming is associated with a range of cumulative CO2 emissions21, and therefore, e.g.,
higher emissions in earlier decades imply lower emissions later. {12.5}
Limiting the warming caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions alone with a probability of >33%, >50%, and >66% to
less than 2C since the period 1861188022, will require cumulative CO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources to stay
between 0 and about 1570 GtC (5760 GtCO2), 0 and about 1210 GtC (4440 GtCO2), and 0 and about 1000 GtC (3670
GtCO2) since that period, respectively23. These upper amounts are reduced to about 900 GtC (3300 GtCO2), 820 GtC (3010
GtCO2), and 790 GtC (2900 GtCO2), respectively, when accounting for non-CO2 forcings as in RCP2.6. An amount of 515
[445 to 585] GtC (1890 [1630 to 2150] GtCO2), was already emitted by 2011. {12.5}
From fossil fuel, cement, industry, and waste sectors.
20
Quantification of this range of CO2 emissions requires taking into account non-CO2 drivers.
21
The first 20-year period available from the models.
This is based on the assessment of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE, see Section D.2).
22
23
27
A lower warming target, or a higher likelihood of remaining below a specific warming target, will require lower cumulative
CO2 emissions. Accounting for warming effects of increases in non-CO2 greenhouse gases, reductions in aerosols, or the
release of greenhouse gases from permafrost will also lower the cumulative CO2 emissions for a specific warming target
(see Figure SPM.10). {12.5}
A large fraction of anthropogenic climate change resulting from CO2 emissions is irreversible on a multi-century to
millennial time scale, except in the case of a large net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere over a sustained period.
Surface temperatures will remain approximately constant at elevated levels for many centuries after a complete cessation
of net anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Due to the long time scales of heat transfer from the ocean surface to depth, ocean
warming will continue for centuries. Depending on the scenario, about 15 to 40% of emitted CO2 will remain in the
atmosphere longer than 1,000 years. {Box 6.1, 12.4, 12.5}
SPM
It is virtually certain that global mean sea level rise will continue beyond 2100, with sea level rise due to thermal
expansion to continue for many centuries. The few available model results that go beyond 2100 indicate global mean
sea level rise above the pre-industrial level by 2300 to be less than 1 m for a radiative forcing that corresponds to CO2
concentrations that peak and decline and remain below 500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP2.6. For a radiative forcing that
corresponds to a CO2 concentration that is above 700 ppm but below 1500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP8.5, the projected
rise is 1 m to more than 3 m (medium confidence). {13.5}
Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtCO2)

1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
5
Temperature anomaly relative to 18611880 (C)
2100
2100
3
2100
2050
2050
2050
2050
2100
2030
2030
2010
2000
1950
1980
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP6.0
RCP8.5
Historical
RCP range
1% yr -1 CO2
1% yr -1 CO2 range
1890
500
1000
1500
2000
Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtC)
2500
Figure SPM.10 | Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. Multimodel results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models for each RCP until 2100 are shown with coloured lines and decadal means (dots). Some
decadal means are labeled for clarity (e.g., 2050 indicating the decade 20402049). Model results over the historical period (1860 to 2010) are indicated
in black. The coloured plume illustrates the multi-model spread over the four RCP scenarios and fades with the decreasing number of available models
in RCP8.5. The multi-model mean and range simulated by CMIP5 models, forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year (1% yr1 CO2 simulations), is given by
the thin black line and grey area. For a specific amount of cumulative CO2 emissions, the 1% per year CO2 simulations exhibit lower warming than those
driven by RCPs, which include additional non-CO2 forcings. Temperature values are given relative to the 18611880 base period, emissions relative to
1870. Decadal averages are connected by straight lines. For further technical details see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figure 12.45;
TS TFE.8, Figure 1}
28
Sustained mass loss by ice sheets would cause larger sea level rise, and some part of the mass loss might be irreversible.
There is high confidence that sustained warming greater than some threshold would lead to the near-complete loss of
the Greenland ice sheet over a millennium or more, causing a global mean sea level rise of up to 7 m. Current estimates
indicate that the threshold is greater than about 1C (low confidence) but less than about 4C (medium confidence)
global mean warming with respect to pre-industrial. Abrupt and irreversible ice loss from a potential instability of marinebased sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to climate forcing is possible, but current evidence and understanding
is insufficient to make a quantitative assessment. {5.8, 13.4, 13.5}
SPM
Methods that aim to deliberately alter the climate system to counter climate change, termed geoengineering, have been
proposed. Limited evidence precludes a comprehensive quantitative assessment of both Solar Radiation Management
(SRM) and Carbon D ioxide Removal (CDR) and their impact on the climate system. CDR methods have biogeochemical
and technological limitations to their potential on a global scale. There is insufficient knowledge to quantify how
much CO2 emissions could be partially offset by CDR on a century timescale. Modelling indicates that SRM methods, if
realizable, have the potential to substantially offset a global temperature rise, but they would also modify the global
water cycle, and would not reduce ocean acidification. If SRM were terminated for any reason, there is high confidence
that global surface temperatures would rise very rapidly to values consistent with the greenhouse gas forcing. CDR and
SRM methods carry side effects and long-term consequences on a global scale. {6.5, 7.7}
Box SPM.1: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

Climate change projections in IPCC Working Group I require information about future emissions or concentrations
of greenhouse gases, aerosols and other climate drivers. This information is often expressed as a scenario of human
activities, which are not assessed in this report. Scenarios used in Working Group I have focused on anthropogenic
emissions and do not include changes in natural drivers such as solar or volcanic forcing or natural emissions, for
example, of CH4 and N2O.
For the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC, the scientific community has defined a set of four new scenarios, denoted
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, see Glossary). They are identified by their approximate total
radiative forcing in year 2100 relative to 1750: 2.6 W m-2 for RCP2.6, 4.5 W m-2 for RCP4.5, 6.0 W m-2 for RCP6.0,
and 8.5 W m-2 for RCP8.5. For the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) results, these values
should be understood as indicative only, as the climate forcing resulting from all drivers varies between models
due to specific model characteristics and treatment of short-lived climate forcers. These four RCPs include one
mitigation scenario leading to a very low forcing level (RCP2.6), two stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6),
and one scenario with very high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5). The RCPs can thus represent a range of 21st
century climate policies, as compared with the no-climate policy of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
(SRES) used in the Third Assessment Report and the Fourth Assessment Report. For RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, radiative
forcing does not peak by year 2100; for RCP2.6 it peaks and declines; and for RCP4.5 it stabilizes by 2100. Each
RCP provides spatially resolved data sets of land use change and sector-based emissions of air pollutants, and it
specifies annual greenhouse gas concentrations and anthropogenic emissions up to 2100. RCPs are based on a
combination of integrated assessment models, simple climate models, atmospheric chemistry and global carbon
cycle models. While the RCPs span a wide range of total forcing values, they do not cover the full range of emissions
in the literature, particularly for aerosols.
Most of the CMIP5 and Earth System Model simulations were performed with prescribed CO2 concentrations
reaching 421 ppm (RCP2.6), 538 ppm (RCP4.5), 670 ppm (RCP6.0), and 936 ppm (RCP 8.5) by the year 2100.
Including also the prescribed concentrations of CH4 and N2O, the combined CO2-equivalent concentrations are 475
ppm (RCP2.6), 630 ppm (RCP4.5), 800 ppm (RCP6.0), and 1313 ppm (RCP8.5). For RCP8.5, additional CMIP5 Earth
System Model simulations are performed with prescribed CO2 emissions as provided by the integrated assessment
models. For all RCPs, additional calculations were made with updated atmospheric chemistry data and models
(including the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate component of CMIP5) using the RCP prescribed emissions
of the chemically reactive gases (CH4, N2O, HFCs, NOx, CO, NMVOC). These simulations enable investigation of
uncertainties related to carbon cycle feedbacks and atmospheric chemistry.
29
Introduction
TS
Chapter 2
Technical Summary
31
TS
Technical Summary
Coordinating Lead Authors:
Thomas F. Stocker (Switzerland), Qin Dahe (China), Gian-Kasper Plattner (Switzerland)
Lead Authors:
Lisa V. Alexander (Australia), Simon K. Allen (Switzerland/New Zealand), Nathaniel L. Bindoff
(Australia), Franois-Marie Bron (France), John A. Church (Australia), Ulrich Cubasch
(Germany), Seita Emori (Japan), Piers Forster (UK), Pierre Friedlingstein (UK/Belgium), Nathan
Gillett (Canada), Jonathan M. Gregory (UK), Dennis L. Hartmann (USA), Eystein Jansen (Norway),
Ben Kirtman (USA), Reto Knutti (Switzerland), Krishna Kumar Kanikicharla (India), Peter Lemke
(Germany), Jochem Marotzke (Germany), Valrie Masson-Delmotte (France), Gerald A. Meehl
(USA), Igor I. Mokhov (Russian Federation), Shilong Piao (China), Venkatachalam Ramaswamy
(USA), David Randall (USA), Monika Rhein (Germany), Maisa Rojas (Chile), Christopher Sabine
(USA), Drew Shindell (USA), Lynne D. Talley (USA), David G. Vaughan (UK), Shang-Ping Xie
(USA)
Contributing Authors:
Myles R. Allen (UK), Olivier Boucher (France), Don Chambers (USA), Jens Hesselbjerg
Christensen (Denmark), Philippe Ciais (France), Peter U. Clark (USA), Matthew Collins (UK),
Josefino C. Comiso (USA), Viviane Vasconcellos de Menezes (Australia/Brazil), Richard A. Feely
(USA), Thierry Fichefet (Belgium), Gregory Flato (Canada), Jess Fidel Gonzlez Rouco (Spain),
Ed Hawkins (UK), Paul J. Hezel (Belgium/USA), Gregory C. Johnson (USA), Simon A. Josey (UK),
Georg Kaser (Austria/Italy), Albert M.G. Klein Tank (Netherlands), Janina Krper (Germany),
Gunnar Myhre (Norway), Timothy Osborn (UK), Scott B. Power (Australia), Stephen R. Rintoul
(Australia), Joeri Rogelj (Switzerland/Belgium), Matilde Rusticucci (Argentina), Michael Schulz
(Germany), Jan Sedlek (Switzerland), Peter A. Stott (UK), Rowan Sutton (UK), Peter W. Thorne
(USA/Norway/UK), Donald Wuebbles (USA)
Review Editors:
Sylvie Joussaume (France), Joyce Penner (USA), Fredolin Tangang (Malaysia)
This Technical Summary should be cited as:
Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, L.V. Alexander, S.K. Allen, N.L. Bindoff, F.-M. Bron, J.A. Church, U. Cubasch,
S. Emori, P. Forster, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gillett, J.M. Gregory, D.L. Hartmann, E. Jansen, B. Kirtman, R. Knutti, K.
Krishna Kumar, P. Lemke, J. Marotzke, V. Masson-Delmotte, G.A. Meehl, I.I. Mokhov, S. Piao, V. Ramaswamy, D.
Randall, M. Rhein, M. Rojas, C. Sabine, D. Shindell, L.D. Talley, D.G. Vaughan and S.-P. Xie, 2013: Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor,
S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
33
Table of Contents
TS.1 Introduction......................................................................... 35

TS
Box TS.1: Treatment of Uncertainty............................................ 36
TS.5 Projections of Global and Regional

Climate Change.................................................................. 79
TS.5.1
Introduction................................................................. 79
TS.2 Observation of Changes in the Climate System....... 37
TS.5.2
Future Forcing and Scenarios....................................... 79
TS.2.1
Introduction................................................................. 37
TS.2.2
Changes in Temperature.............................................. 37
Box TS.6: The New Representative Concentration Pathway

Scenarios and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 5 Models............................................................................. 79
TS.2.3
Changes in Energy Budget and Heat Content.............. 39
TS.5.3
Quantification of Climate System Response................. 81
TS.2.4
Changes in Circulation and Modes of Variability.......... 39
TS.5.4
Near-term Climate Change.......................................... 85
TS.2.5
Changes in the Water Cycle and Cryosphere................ 40
TS.5.5
Long-term Climate Change.......................................... 89
TS.2.6
Changes in Sea Level................................................... 46
TS.2.7
Changes in Extremes.................................................... 46
TS.5.6

Long-term Projections of Carbon and Other

Biogeochemical Cycles................................................. 93
TS.2.8

Changes in Carbon and Other

Biogeochemical Cycles................................................. 50
TS.3 Drivers of Climate Change.............................................. 53
Box TS.7: Climate Geoengineering Methods............................. 98
TS.5.7
Long-term Projections of Sea Level Change................. 98
TS.5.8

Climate Phenomena and Regional

Climate Change......................................................... 105
TS.3.1
Introduction................................................................. 53
TS.3.2
Radiative Forcing from Greenhouse Gases................... 53
Box TS.2: Radiative Forcing and Effective

Radiative Forcing.......................................................................... 53
TS.6.1

Key Uncertainties in Observation of Changes in

the Climate System.................................................... 114
TS.3.3
Radiative Forcing from Anthropogenic Aerosols........... 55
TS.6.2
Key Uncertainties in Drivers of Climate Change......... 114
TS.3.4

Radiative Forcing from Land Surface Changes

and Contrails................................................................ 55
TS.6.3

Key Uncertainties in Understanding the Climate

System and Its Recent Changes................................. 114
TS.3.5

Radiative Forcing from Natural Drivers of

Climate Change........................................................... 55
TS.6.4

Key Uncertainties in Projections of Global and

Regional Climate Change........................................... 115
TS.3.6

Synthesis of Forcings; Spatial and

Temporal Evolution...................................................... 56
Thematic Focus Elements
TS.3.7
Climate Feedbacks....................................................... 57
TFE.1
Water Cycle Change.................................................. 42
TS.3.8
Emission Metrics.......................................................... 58
TFE.2

Sea Level Change: Scientific Understanding

and Uncertainties...................................................... 47
TS.4 Understanding the Climate System and

Its Recent Changes............................................................ 60
TFE.3

Comparing Projections from Previous IPCC

Assessments with Observations.............................. 64
TS.4.1
Introduction................................................................. 60
TS.4.2
Surface Temperature.................................................... 60
TFE.4

The Changing Energy Budget of the Global

Climate System.......................................................... 67
Box TS.3: Climate Models and the Hiatus in Global

Mean Surface Warming of the Past 15 Years............................. 61
TFE.5
Irreversibility and Abrupt Change........................... 70
TFE.6
Climate Sensitivity and Feedbacks......................... 82
TS.4.3
Atmospheric Temperature............................................ 66
TFE.7
Carbon Cycle Perturbation and Uncertainties....... 96
TS.4.4
Oceans......................................................................... 68
TFE.8
Climate Targets and Stabilization......................... 102
TS.4.5
Cryosphere................................................................... 69
TFE.9
Climate Extremes.................................................... 109
TS.4.6
Water Cycle.................................................................. 72
TS.4.7
Climate Extremes......................................................... 72
TS.4.8
From Global to Regional.............................................. 73
Box TS.4: Model Evaluation......................................................... 75
Box TS.5: Paleoclimate................................................................. 77
34
TS.6 Key Uncertainties............................................................. 114
Supplementary Material
Supplementary Material is available in online versions of the report.
Technical Summary
TS.1 Introduction
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis is the contribution
of Working Group I (WGI) to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This comprehensive assessment of the physical aspects of climate change puts a focus
on those elements that are relevant to understand past, document current and project future climate change. The assessment builds on the
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)1 and the recent Special Report
on Managing the Risk of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)2 and is presented in 14 chapters and 3
annexes. The chapters cover direct and proxy observations of changes
in all components of the climate system; assess the current knowledge
of various processes within, and interactions among, climate system
components, which determine the sensitivity and response of the
system to changes in forcing; and quantify the link between the changes in atmospheric constituents, and hence radiative forcing (RF)3, and
the consequent detection and attribution of climate change. Projections of changes in all climate system components are based on model
simulations forced by a new set of scenarios. The Report also provides
a comprehensive assessment of past and future sea level change in a
dedicated chapter. Regional climate change information is presented in
the form of an Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections (Annex
I). This is complemented by Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables
and Annex III: Glossary.
the scientific studies considered4. Confidence is expressed qualitatively. Quantified measures of uncertainty in a finding are expressed
probabilistically and are based on a combination of statistical analyses of observations or model results, or both, and expert judgement.
Where appropriate, findings are also formulated as statements of fact
without using uncertainty qualifiers (see Chapter 1 and Box TS.1 for
more details).
The Technical Summary is structured into four main sections presenting
the assessment results following the storyline of the WGI contribution
to AR5: Section TS.2 covers the assessment of observations of changes
in the climate system; Section TS.3 summarizes the information on
the different drivers, natural and anthropogenic, expressed in terms
of RF; Section TS.4 presents the assessment of the quantitative understanding of observed climate change; and Section TS.5 summarizes the
assessment results for projections of future climate change over the
21st century and beyond from regional to global scale. Section TS.6
combines and lists key uncertainties from the WGI assessment from
Sections TS.2 to TS.5. The overall nine TFEs, cutting across the various
components of the WGI AR5, are dispersed throughout the four main
TS sections, are visually distinct from the main text and should allow
stand-alone reading.
The basis for substantive paragraphs in this Technical Summary can be
found in the chapter sections of the underlying report. These references
are given in curly brackets.
The primary purpose of this Technical Summary (TS) is to provide the

link between the complete assessment of the multiple lines of independent evidence presented in the 14 chapters of the main report
and the highly condensed summary prepared as the WGI Summary for
Policymakers (SPM). The Technical Summary thus serves as a starting
point for those readers who seek the full information on more specific
topics covered by this assessment. This purpose is facilitated by including pointers to the chapters and sections where the full assessment
can be found. Policy-relevant topics, which cut across many chapters
and involve many interlinked processes in the climate system, are presented here as Thematic Focus Elements (TFEs), allowing rapid access
to this information.
An integral element of this report is the use of uncertainty language
that permits a traceable account of the assessment (Box TS.1). The
degree of certainty in key findings in this assessment is based on the
author teams evaluations of underlying scientific understanding and is
expressed as a level of confidence that results from the type, amount,
quality and consistency of evidence and the degree of agreement in
IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA, 996 pp.
IPCC, 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor and P. M. Midgley
(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp.
Radiative forcing (RF) is a measure of the net change in the energy balance of the Earth system in response to some external perturbation. It is expressed in watts per square
metre (W m2); see Box TS.2.
Mastrandrea, M.D., C.B. Field, T.F. Stocker, O. Edenhofer, K.L. Ebi, D.J. Frame, H. Held, E. Kriegler, K.J. Mach, P.R. Matschoss, G.-K. Plattner, G.W. Yohe, and F.W. Zwiers, 2010:
Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
35
TS
Technical Summary
Box TS.1 | Treatment of Uncertainty

Based on the Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties, this WGI
Technical Summary and the WGI Summary for Policymakers rely on two metrics for communicating the degree of certainty in key findings, which is based on author teams evaluations of underlying scientific understanding:
Confidence in the validity of a finding, based on the type, amount, quality and consistency of evidence (e.g., mechanistic understanding, theory, data, models, expert judgement) and the degree of agreement. Confidence is expressed qualitatively.
Quantified measures of uncertainty in a finding expressed probabilistically (based on statistical analysis of observations or model
results, or expert judgement).
The AR5 Guidance Note refines the guidance provided to support the IPCC Third and Fourth Assessment Reports. Direct comparisons
between assessment of uncertainties in findings in this Report and those in the AR4 and the SREX are difficult, because of the application of the revised guidance note on uncertainties, as well as the availability of new information, improved scientific understanding,
continued analyses of data and models and specific differences in methodologies applied in the assessed studies. For some climate
variables, different aspects have been assessed and therefore a direct comparison would be inappropriate.
TS
Each key finding is based on an author teams evaluation of associated evidence and agreement. The confidence metric provides a
qualitative synthesis of an author teams judgement about the validity of a finding, as determined through evaluation of evidence and
agreement. If uncertainties can be quantified probabilistically, an author team can characterize a finding using the calibrated likelihood
language or a more precise presentation of probability. Unless otherwise indicated, high or very high confidence is associated with
findings for which an author team has assigned a likelihood term.
The following summary terms are used to describe the available evidence: limited, medium, or robust; and for the degree of agreement:
low, medium, or high. A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers very low, low, medium, high, and very high, and typeset
in italics, e.g., medium confidence. Box TS.1, Figure 1 depicts summary statements for evidence and agreement and their relationship
to confidence. There is flexibility in this relationship; for a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be
assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement correlate with increasing confidence.
Agreement
High agreement
Limited evidence
High agreement
Medium evidence
High agreement
Robust evidence
Medium agreement Medium agreement Medium agreement

Limited evidence
Medium evidence
Robust evidence
Low agreement
Limited evidence
Low agreement
Medium evidence
Low agreement
Robust evidence
Confidence
Scale
Evidence (type, amount, quality, consistency)

Box TS.1, Figure 1 | A depiction of evidence and agreement statements and their relationship to confidence. Confidence increases toward the top right corner as
suggested by the increasing strength of shading. Generally, evidence is most robust when there are multiple, consistent independent lines of high quality. {Figure 1.11}
The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood, and typeset in italics:
Term*
Virtually certain
Very likely
Likely
About as likely as not
Unlikely
Very unlikely
Exceptionally unlikely
Likelihood of the outcome

99100% probability
90100% probability
66100% probability
3366% probability
033% probability
010% probability
01% probability
* Additional terms (extremely likely: 95100% probability, more likely than not: >50100% probability, and extremely unlikely:
05% probability) may also be used when appropriate.
36
Technical Summary
TS.2
Observation of Changes in the

Climate System
TS.2.1 Introduction
Observations of the climate system are based on direct physical and
biogeochemical measurements, and remote sensing from ground stations and satellites; information derived from paleoclimate archives
provides a long-term context. Global-scale observations from the
instrumental era began in the mid-19th century, and paleoclimate
reconstructions extend the record of some quantities back hundreds to
millions of years. Together, they provide a comprehensive view of the
variability and long-term changes in the atmosphere, the ocean, the
cryosphere and at the land surface.
The assessment of observational evidence for climate change is summarized in this section. Substantial advancements in the availability,
acquisition, quality and analysis of observational data sets for the
atmosphere, land surface, ocean and cryosphere have occurred since
the AR4. Many aspects of the climate system are showing evidence of
a changing climate. {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 13}
TS.2.2 Changes in Temperature

TS.2.2.1 Surface
It is certain that global mean surface temperature (GMST) has increased
since the late 19th century (Figures TS.1 and TS.2). Each of the past three
decades has been successively warmer at the Earths surface than any
the previous decades in the instrumental record, and the decade of the
2000s has been the warmest. The globally averaged combined land and
ocean temperature data as calculated by a linear trend5, show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] C6, over the period 18802012, when multiple independently produced datasets exist, about 0.89 [0.69 to 1.08]
C over the period 19012012, and about 0.72 [0.49 to 0.89] C over
the period 19512012 when based on three independently-produced
data sets. The total increase between the average of the 18501900
period and the 20032012 period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] C, based on
the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature
data set 4 (HadCRUT4), the global mean surface temperature dataset
with the longest record of the three independently-produced data sets.
The warming from 18501900 to 19862005 (reference period for the
modelling chapters and the Atlas in Annex I) is 0.61 [0.55 to 0.67] C,
when calculated using HadCRUT4 and its uncertainty estimates. It is
also virtually certain that maximum and minimum temperatures over
land have increased on a global scale since 1950.7 {2.4.1, 2.4.3; C

hapter
2 Supplementary Material Section 2.SM.3}
Despite the robust multi-decadal warming, there exists substantial
interannual to decadal variability in the rate of warming, with several
periods exhibiting weaker trends (including the warming hiatus since
1998) (Figure TS.1). The rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998
2012; 0.05 [0.05 to +0.15] C per decade) is smaller than the trend
since 1951 (19512012; 0.12[0.08 to 0.14] C per decade). Trends for
short periods are uncertain and very sensitive to the start and end
years. For example, trends for 15-year periods starting in 1995, 1996,
and 1997 are 0.13 [0.02 to 0.24] C per decade, 0.14 [0.03 to 0.24]
C per decade and 0.07 [0.02 to 0.18] C per decade, respectively.
Several independently analysed data records of global and regional
land surface air temperature obtained from station observations are
in broad agreement that land surface air temperatures have increased.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have also increased. Intercomparisons
of new SST data records obtained by different measurement methods,
including satellite data, have resulted in better understanding of errors
and biases in the records. {2.4.12.4.3; Box 9.2}
It is unlikely that any uncorrected urban heat island effects and land
use change effects have raised the estimated centennial globally averaged land surface air temperature trends by more than 10% of the
reported trend. This is an average value; in some regions that have
rapidly developed urban heat island and land use change impacts on
regional trends may be substantially larger. {2.4.1}
There is high confidence that annual mean surface warming since the
20th century has reversed long-term cooling trends of the past 5000
years in mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH). For
average annual NH temperatures, the period 19832012 was very likely
the warmest 30-year period of the last 800 years (high confidence)
and likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium
confidence). This is supported by comparison of instrumental temperatures with multiple reconstructions from a variety of proxy data and
statistical methods, and is consistent with AR4. Continental-scale surface temperature reconstructions show, with high confidence, multidecadal periods during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (9501250)
that were in some regions as warm as in the mid-20th century and
in others as warm as in the late 20th century. With high confidence,
these regional warm periods were not as synchronous across regions
as the warming since the mid-20th century. Based on the comparison
between reconstructions and simulations, there is high confidence that
not only external orbital, solar and volcanic forcing, but also internal
The warming is reported as an unweighted average based on linear trend estimates calculated from Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data
set 4 (HadCRUT4), Merged LandOcean Surface Temperature Analysis (MLOST) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) data sets
(see Figure TS.2; Section 2.4.3).
In the WGI contribution to the AR5, uncertainty is quantified using 90% uncertainty intervals unless otherwise stated. The 90% uncertainty interval, reported in square
brackets, is expected to have a 90% likelihood of covering the value that is being estimated. The upper endpoint of the uncertainty interval has a 95% likelihood of exceeding the value that is being estimated and the lower endpoint has a 95% likelihood of being less than that value. A best estimate of that value is also given where available.
Uncertainty intervals are not necessarily symmetric about the corresponding best estimate.
Both methods presented in this paragraph to calculate temperature change were also used in AR4. The first calculates the difference using a best fit linear trend of all points
between two years, e.g., 1880 and 2012. The second calculates the difference between averages for the two periods, e.g., 1850 to 1900 and 2003 to 2012. Therefore, the
resulting values and their 90% uncertainty intervals are not directly comparable.
37
TS
Technical Summary
variability, contributed substantially to the spatial pattern and timing

of surface temperature changes between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age (14501850). {5.3.5, 5.5.1}
radiosondes. Hence there is only medium confidence in the rate of

change and its vertical structure in the NH extratropical troposphere
and low confidence elsewhere. {2.4.4}
TS.2.2.2 Troposphere and Stratosphere
TS.2.2.3 Ocean
Based on multiple independent analyses of measurements from radiosondes and satellite sensors, it is virtually certain that globally the
troposphere has warmed and the stratosphere has cooled since the
mid-20th century (Figure TS.1). Despite unanimous agreement on the
sign of the trends, substantial disagreement exists between available
estimates as to the rate of temperature changes, particularly outside
the NH extratropical troposphere, which has been well sampled by
It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (above 700 m) has warmed
from 1971 to 2010, and likely that it has warmed from the 1870s to 1971
(Figure TS.1). There is less certainty in changes prior to 1971 because
of relatively sparse sampling in earlier time periods. Instrumental
biases in historical upper ocean temperature measurements have been
identified and reduced since AR4, diminishing artificial decadal variation in temperature and upper ocean heat content, most prominent
during the 1970s and 1980s. {3.2.13.2.3, 3.5.3}
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
Sea-surface temperature: 5 datasets
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-10
-0.6
Temperature
anomaly (C)
0.4
0.2
Sea level
anomaly (mm)
0.2
0.0
-0.4
50
-0.2
Sea level: 6 datasets
6 Northern hemisphere (March4 April) snow cover: 2 datasets
-50
-100
-2
-150
-4
-200
12
-6
10
5
10
8
Summer arctic sea-ice extent: 6 datasets
Glacier mass balance:

3 datasets
0
-5
6
4
Specific humidity:
4 datasets
0.0
-0.2
-0.6
100
Extent (106km2)
0.4
Marine air temperature: 2 datasets
Specific humidity
anomaly (g/kg)
Temperature
anomaly (C)
0.4
-10
1850
1900
1950
Year
2000
-15
1940
1960
1980
Ocean heat content

anomaly (1022 J)
0.6
Tropospheric temperature:
0.4 7 datasets
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
20
Ocean heat content(0-700m):
5 datasets
10
Land surface air temperature: 4 datasets
Mass balance (1015GT) Extent anomaly (106km2)
Temperature
anomaly (C)
1.0
Temperature
anomaly (C)
TS
2000
Year
Figure TS.1 | Multiple complementary indicators of a changing global climate. Each line represents an independently derived estimate of change in the climate element. The times
series presented are assessed in Chapters 2, 3 and 4. In each panel all data sets have been normalized to a common period of record. A full detailing of which source data sets go
into which panel is given in Chapter 2 Supplementary Material Section 2.SM.5 and in the respective chapters. Further detail regarding the related Figure SPM.3 is given in the TS
Supplementary Material. {FAQ 2.1, Figure 1; 2.4, 2.5, 3.2, 3.7, 4.5.2, 4.5.3}
38
Technical Summary
It is likely that the ocean warmed between 700-2000 m from 1957 to

2009, based on 5-year averages. It is likely that the ocean warmed from
3000 m to the bottom from 1992 to 2005, while no significant trends
in global average temperature were observed between 2000 and 3000
m depth from circa 1992 to 2005. Below 3000 m depth, the largest
warming is observed in the Southern Ocean. {3.2.4, 3.5.1; Figures 3.2b,
3.3; FAQ 3.1}
HadCRUT4 1901-2012
TS.2.3 Changes in Energy Budget and Heat Content

The Earth has been in radiative imbalance, with more energy from the
Sun entering than exiting the top of the atmosphere, since at least
about 1970. It is virtually certain that the Earth has gained substantial
energy from 1971 to 2010. The estimated increase in energy inventory
between 1971 and 2010 is 274 [196 to 351] 1021 J (high confidence),
with a heating rate of 213 1012 W from a linear fit to the annual
values over that time period (see also TFE.4). {Boxes 3.1, 13.1}
Ocean warming dominates that total heating rate, with full ocean
depth warming accounting for about 93% (high confidence), and
warming of the upper (0 to 700 m) ocean accounting for about 64%.
Melting ice (including Arctic sea ice, ice sheets and glaciers) and warming of the continents each account for 3% of the total. Warming of the
atmosphere makes up the remaining 1%. The 19712010 estimated
rate of ocean energy gain is 199 1012 W from a linear fit to data over
that time period, equivalent to 0.42 W m2 heating applied continuously over the Earths entire surface, and 0.55 W m2 for the portion
owing to ocean warming applied over the oceans entire surface area.
The Earths estimated energy increase from 1993 to 2010 is 163 [127
to 201] 1021 J with a trend estimate of 275 1015 W. The ocean portion of the trend for 19932010 is 257 1012 W, equivalent to a mean
heat flux into the ocean of 0.71 W m2. {3.2.3, 3.2.4; Box 3.1}
MLOST 1901-2012
It is about as likely as not that ocean heat content from 0700 m

increased more slowly during 2003 to 2010 than during 1993 to 2002
(Figure TS.1). Ocean heat uptake from 7002000 m, where interannual
variability is smaller, likely continued unabated from 1993 to 2009.
{3.2.3, 3.2.4; Box 9.2}
TS.2.4 Changes in Circulation and Modes of Variability

GISS 1901-2012
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Large variability on interannual to decadal time scales hampers robust

conclusions on long-term changes in atmospheric circulation in many
instances. Confidence is high that the increase of the northern midlatitude westerly winds and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index
from the 1950s to the 1990s, and the weakening of the Pacific Walker
Circulation from the late 19th century to the 1990s, have been largely
offset by recent changes. With high confidence, decadal and multidecadal changes in the winter NAO index observed since the 20th century are not unprecedented in the context of the past 500 years. {2.7.2,
2.7.5, 2.7.8, 5.4.2; Box 2.5; Table 2.14}
Trend (C over period)
1.25 1.5 1.75 2.5
Figure TS.2 | Change in surface temperature over 19012012 as determined by linear

trend for three data sets. White areas indicate incomplete or missing data. Trends have
been calculated only for those grid boxes with greater than 70% complete records and
more than 20% data availability in the first and last 10% of the time period. Black plus
signs (+) indicate grid boxes where trends are significant (i.e., a trend of zero lies outside the 90% confidence interval). Differences in coverage primarily reflect the degree
of interpolation to account for data void regions undertaken by the data set providers
ranging from none beyond grid box averaging (Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit
gridded surface temperature data set 4 (HadCRUT4)) to substantial (Goddard Institute
for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)). Further detail regarding the
related Figure SPM.1 is given in the TS Supplementary Material. {Figure 2.21}
It is likely that circulation features have moved poleward since the

1970s, involving a widening of the tropical belt, a poleward shift of
storm tracks and jet streams and a contraction of the northern polar
vortex. Evidence is more robust for the NH. It is likely that the Southern
Annular Mode (SAM) has become more positive since the 1950s. The
increase in the strength of the observed summer SAM since 1950 has
been anomalous, with medium confidence, in the context of the past
400 years. {2.7.5, 2.7.6, 2.7.8, 5.4.2; Box 2.5; Table 2.14}
New results from high-resolution coral records document with high
confidence that the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system has
remained highly variable throughout the past 7000 years, showing no
discernible evidence for an orbital modulation of ENSO. {5.4.1}
39
TS
Technical Summary
Recent observations have strengthened evidence for variability in

major ocean circulation systems on time scales from years to decades.
It is very likely that the subtropical gyres in the North Pacific and
South Pacific have expanded and strengthened since 1993. Based on
measurements of the full Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
(AMOC) and its individual components at various latitudes and different time periods, there is no evidence of a long-term trend. There is also
no evidence for trends in the transports of the Indonesian Throughflow,
the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) or in the transports between
the Atlantic Ocean and Nordic Seas. However, a southward shift of the
ACC by about 1 of latitude is observed in data spanning the time
period 19502010 with medium confidence. {3.6}
TS.2.5 Changes in the Water Cycle and Cryosphere

TS
TS.2.5.1 Atmosphere
Confidence in precipitation change averaged over global land areas
is low prior to 1951 and medium afterwards because of insufficient
data, particularly in the earlier part of the record (for an overview of
observed and projected changes in the global water cycle see TFE.1).
Further, when virtually all the land area is filled in using a reconstruction method, the resulting time series shows little change in landbased precipitation since 1901. NH mid-latitude land areas do show
a likely overall increase in precipitation (medium confidence prior to
1951, but high confidence afterwards). For other latitudes area-averaged long-term positive or negative trends have low confidence (TFE.1,
Figure 1). {2.5.1}
It is very likely that global near surface and tropospheric air specific humidity have increased since the 1970s. However, during recent
years the near-surface moistening trend over land has abated (medium
confidence) (Figure TS.1). As a result, fairly widespread decreases in
relative humidity near the surface are observed over the land in recent
years. {2.4.4, 2.5.5, 2.5.6}
Although trends of cloud cover are consistent between independent
data sets in certain regions, substantial ambiguity and therefore low
confidence remains in the observations of global-scale cloud variability
and trends. {2.5.7}
TS.2.5.2 Ocean and Surface Fluxes

It is very likely that regional trends have enhanced the mean geographical contrasts in sea surface salinity since the 1950s: saline surface
waters in the evaporation-dominated mid-latitudes have become more
saline, while relatively fresh surface waters in rainfall-dominated tropical and polar regions have become fresher. The mean contrast between
high- and low-salinity regions increased by 0.13 [0.08 to 0.17] from
1950 to 2008. It is very likely that the inter-basin contrast in freshwater
content has increased: the Atlantic has become saltier and the Pacific
and Southern Oceans have freshened. Although similar conclusions
were reached in AR4, recent studies based on expanded data sets and
new analysis approaches provide high confidence in this assessment.
{3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.9; FAQ 3.2}
40
The spatial patterns of the salinity trends, mean salinity and the mean
distribution of evaporation minus precipitation are all similar (TFE.1,
Figure 1). These similarities provide indirect evidence that the pattern
of evaporation minus precipitation over the oceans has been enhanced
since the 1950s (medium confidence). Uncertainties in currently available surface fluxes prevent the flux products from being reliably used
to identify trends in the regional or global distribution of evaporation
or precipitation over the oceans on the time scale of the observed salinity changes since the 1950s. {3.3.23.3.4, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 3.9; FAQ 3.2}
TS.2.5.3 Sea Ice

Continuing the trends reported in AR4, there is very high confidence
that the Arctic sea ice extent (annual, multi-year and perennial)
decreased over the period 19792012 (Figure TS.1). The rate of the
annual decrease was very likely between 3.5 and 4.1% per decade
(range of 0.45 to 0.51 million km2 per decade). The average decrease in
decadal extent of annual Arctic sea ice has been most rapid in summer
and autumn (high confidence), but the extent has decreased in every
season, and in every successive decade since 1979 (high confidence).
The extent of Arctic perennial and multi-year ice decreased between
1979 and 2012 (very high confidence). The rates are very likely 11.5
[9.4 to 13.6]% per decade (0.73 to 1.07 million km2 per decade) for the
sea ice extent at summer minimum (perennial ice) and very likely 13.5
[11 to 16] % per decade for multi-year ice. There is medium confidence
from reconstructions that the current (19802012) Arctic summer sea
ice retreat was unprecedented and SSTs were anomalously high in the
perspective of at least the last 1,450 years. {4.2.2, 5.5.2}
It is likely that the annual period of surface melt on Arctic perennial
sea ice lengthened by 5.7 [4.8 to 6.6] days per decade over the period
19792012. Over this period, in the region between the East Siberian
Sea and the western Beaufort Sea, the duration of ice-free conditions
increased by nearly 3 months. {4.2.2}
There is high confidence that the average winter sea ice thickness
within the Arctic Basin decreased between 1980 and 2008. The average decrease was likely between 1.3 m and 2.3 m. High confidence in
this assessment is based on observations from multiple sources: submarine, electromagnetic probes and satellite altimetry; and is consistent
with the decline in multi-year and perennial ice extent. S atellite measurements made in the period 20102012 show a decrease in sea ice
volume compared to those made over the period 20032008 (medium
confidence). There is high confidence that in the Arctic, where the sea
ice thickness has decreased, the sea ice drift speed has increased. {4.2.2}
It is very likely that the annual Antarctic sea ice extent increased at a
rate of between 1.2 and 1.8% per decade (0.13 to 0.20 million km2
per decade) between 1979 and 2012 (very high confidence). There was
a greater increase in sea ice area, due to a decrease in the percentage of open water within the ice pack. There is high confidence that
there are strong regional differences in this annual rate, with some
regions increasing in extent/area and some decreasing. There are also
contrasting regions around the Antarctic where the ice-free season has
lengthened, and others where it has decreased over the satellite period
(high confidence). {4.2.3}
Technical Summary
TS.2.5.4 Glaciers and Ice Sheets

There is very high confidence that glaciers world-wide are persistently
shrinking as revealed by the time series of measured changes in glacier
length, area, volume and mass (Figures TS.1 and TS.3). The few exceptions are regionally and temporally limited. Measurements of glacier
change have increased substantially in number since AR4. Most of the
new data sets, along with a globally complete glacier inventory, have
been derived from satellite remote sensing {4.3.1, 4.3.3}
There is very high confidence that, during the last decade, the largest
contributions to global glacier ice loss were from glaciers in Alaska, the
Canadian Arctic, the periphery of the Greenland ice sheet, the Southern Andes and the Asian mountains. Together these areas account for
more than 80% of the total ice loss. Total mass loss from all glaciers
in the world, excluding those on the periphery of the ice sheets, was
very likely 226 [91 to 361] Gt yr1 (sea level equivalent, 0.62 [0.25 to
0.99] mm yr1) in the period 19712009, 275 [140 to 410] Gt yr1 (0.76
[0.39 to 1.13] mm yr1) in the period 19932009 and 301 [166 to 436]
Gt yr1 (0.83 [0.46 to 1.20] mm yr1) between 2005 and 20098. {4.3.3;
Tables 4.4, 4.5}
There is very high confidence that the Greenland ice sheet has lost ice
during the last two decades. Combinations of satellite and airborne
remote sensing together with field data indicate with high confidence
that the ice loss has occurred in several sectors and that large rates of
mass loss have spread to wider regions than reported in AR4 (Figure
TS.3). There is high confidence that the mass loss of the Greenland
ice sheet has accelerated since 1992: the average rate has very likely
increased from 34 [6 to 74] Gt yr1 over the period 19922001 (sea
level equivalent, 0.09 [0.02 to 0.20] mm yr1), to 215 [157 to 274] Gt
yr1 over the period 20022011 (0.59 [0.43 to 0.76] mm yr1). There is
high confidence that ice loss from Greenland resulted from increased
surface melt and runoff and increased outlet glacier discharge, and
these occurred in similar amounts. There is high confidence that the
area subject to summer melt has increased over the last two decades.
{4.4.2, 4.4.3}
(b)
5000
4000
16
Glaciers
Greenland
Antarctica
3000
14
12
10
8
6
2000
SLE (mm)
Cumulative ice mass loss (Gt)
(a)
There is high confidence that current glacier extents are out of balance
with current climatic conditions, indicating that glaciers will continue to
shrink in the future even without further temperature increase. {4.3.3}
1000
0
-2
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Year
Figure TS.3 | (Upper) Distribution of ice loss determined from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) time-variable gravity for (a) Antarctica and (b) Greenland, shown
in centimetres of water per year (cm of water yr1) for the period 20032012. (Lower) The assessment of the total loss of ice from glaciers and ice sheets in terms of mass (Gt) and
sea level equivalent (mm). The contribution from glaciers excludes those on the periphery of the ice sheets. {4.3.4; Figures 4.124.14, 4.16, 4.17, 4.25}
100 Gt yr1 of ice loss corresponds to about 0.28 mm yr1 of sea level equivalent.
41
TS
Technical Summary
TFE.1 | Water Cycle Change

The water cycle describes the continuous movement of water through the climate system in its liquid, solid and
vapour forms, and storage in the reservoirs of ocean, cryosphere, land surface and atmosphere. In the atmosphere,
water occurs primarily as a gas, water vapour, but it also occurs as ice and liquid water in clouds. The ocean is primarily liquid water, but the ocean is partly covered by ice in polar regions. Terrestrial water in liquid form appears
as surface water (lakes, rivers), soil moisture and groundwater. Solid terrestrial water occurs in ice sheets, glaciers,
snow and ice on the surface and permafrost. The movement of water in the climate system is essential to life on
land, as much of the water that falls on land as precipitation and supplies the soil moisture and river flow has been
evaporated from the ocean and transported to land by the atmosphere. Water that falls as snow in winter can
provide soil moisture in springtime and river flow in summer and is essential to both natural and human systems.
The movement of fresh water between the atmosphere and the ocean can also influence oceanic salinity, which is
an important driver of the density and circulation of the ocean. The latent heat contained in water vapour in the
atmosphere is critical to driving the circulation of the atmosphere on scales ranging from individual thunderstorms
to the global circulation of the atmosphere. {12.4.5; FAQ 3.2, FAQ 12.2}
TS
Observations of Water Cycle Change

Because the saturation vapour pressure of air increases with temperature, it is expected that the amount of water
vapour in air will increase with a warming climate. Observations from surface stations, radiosondes, global positioning systems and satellite measurements indicate increases in tropospheric water vapour at large spatial scales
(TFE.1, Figure 1). It is very likely that tropospheric specific humidity has increased since the 1970s. The magnitude
of the observed global change in tropospheric water vapour of about 3.5% in the past 40 years is consistent with
the observed temperature change of about 0.5C during the same period, and the relative humidity has stayed
approximately constant. The water vapour change can be attributed to human influence with medium confidence.
{2.5.4, 10.3.2}
Changes in precipitation are harder to measure with the existing records, both because of the greater difficulty
in sampling precipitation and also because it is expected that precipitation will have a smaller fractional change
than the water vapour content of air as the climate warms. Some regional precipitation trends appear to be robust
(TFE.1, Figure 2), but when virtually all the land area is filled in using a reconstruction method, the resulting time
series of global mean land precipitation shows little change since 1900. At present there is medium confidence that
there has been a significant human influence on global scale changes in precipitation patterns, including increases
in Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-to-high latitudes. Changes in the extremes of precipitation, and other climate
extremes related to the water cycle are comprehensively discussed in TFE.9. {2.5.1, 10.3.2}
Although direct trends in precipitation and evaporation are difficult to measure with the available records, the
observed oceanic surface salinity, which is strongly dependent on the difference between evaporation and precipitation, shows significant trends (TFE.1, Figure 1). The spatial patterns of the salinity trends since 1950 are very
similar to the mean salinity and the mean distribution of evaporation minus precipitation: regions of high salinity
where evaporation dominates have become more saline, while regions of low salinity where rainfall dominates
have become fresher (TFE.1, Figure 1). This provides indirect evidence that the pattern of evaporation minus precipitation over the oceans has been enhanced since the 1950s (medium confidence). The inferred changes in evaporation minus precipitation are consistent with the observed increased water vapour content of the warmer air. It is
very likely that observed changes in surface and subsurface salinity are due in part to anthropogenic climate forcings. {2.5, 3.3.23.3.4, 3.4, 3.9, 10.4.2; FAQ 3.2}
In most regions analysed, it is likely that decreasing numbers of snowfall events are occurring where increased
winter temperatures have been observed. Both satellite and in situ observations show significant reductions in
the NH snow cover extent over the past 90 years, with most of the reduction occurring in the 1980s. Snow cover
decreased most in June when the average extent decreased very likely by 53% (40 to 66%) over the period 1967
to 2012. From 1922 to 2012 only data from March and April are available and show very likely a 7% (4.5 to 9.5%)
decline. Because of earlier spring snowmelt, the duration of the NH snow season has declined by 5.3 days per
decade since the 1972/1973 winter. It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic component to these observed
reductions in snow cover since the 1970s. {4.5.2, 10.5.1, 10.5.3}
(continued on next page)
42
Technical Summary
TFE.1 (continued)
1.6
0.8
0.0
0.8
(a) Trend in
total precipitable
water vapour
(1988-2010)
1.6
(kg m-2 per decade)

TS
100
0
(b) Mean
evaporation
minus
precipitation
100
(cm yr-1)
0.8
0.4
0.0
(c) Trend in
surface salinity
(1950-2000)
0.4
0.8
(PSS78 per decade)
37
35
(d) Mean
surface salinity
33
31
(PSS78)
salinity (PSS78)
0.09
(e) High salinity

minus low Salinity
0.06
0.03
0
-0.03
-0.06
-0.09
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
TFE.1, Figure 1 | Changes in sea surface salinity are related to the atmospheric patterns of evaporation minus precipitation (E P) and trends in total precipitable
water: (a) Linear trend (1988 to 2010) in total precipitable water (water vapour integrated from the Earths surface up through the entire atmosphere) (kg m2 per
decade) from satellite observations. (b) The 19792005 climatological mean net evaporation minus precipitation (cm yr1) from meteorological reanalysis data. (c) Trend
(19502000) in surface salinity (Practical Salinity Scale 78 (PSS78) per 50 years). (d) The climatological mean surface salinity (PSS78) (blues <35; yellows-reds >35). (e)
Global difference between salinity averaged over regions where the sea surface salinity is greater than the global mean sea surface salinity (High Salinity) and salinity
averaged over regions with values below the global mean (Low Salinity). For details of data sources see Figure 3.21 and FAQ 3.2, Figure 1. {3.9}
43
Technical Summary
TFE.1 (continued)
CRU 1901-2010
CRU 1951-2010
GHCN 1901-2010
GHCN 1951-2010
GPCC 1901-2010
GPCC 1951-2010
TS
-100
-50
-25
-10
-5
-2.5
0
2.5
5
-1
Trend (mm yr per decade)
10
25
50
100
TFE.1, Figure 2 | Maps of observed precipitation change over land from 1901 to 2010 (left-hand panels) and 1951 to 2010 (right-hand panels) from the Climatic
Research Unit (CRU), Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) data sets. Trends in annual accumulation have
been calculated only for those grid boxes with greater than 70% complete records and more than 20% data availability in first and last decile of the period. White areas
indicate incomplete or missing data. Black plus signs (+) indicate grid boxes where trends are significant (i.e., a trend of zero lies outside the 90% confidence interval).
Further detail regarding the related Figure SPM.2 is given in the TS Supplementary Material. {Figure 2.29; 2.5.1}
The most recent and most comprehensive analyses of river runoff do not support the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
(AR4) conclusion that global runoff has increased during the 20th century. New results also indicate that the AR4
conclusions regarding global increasing trends in droughts since the 1970s are no longer supported. {2.5.2, 2.6.2}
Projections of Future Changes
Changes in the water cycle are projected to occur in a warming climate (TFE.1, Figure 3, see also TS 4.6, TS 5.6,
Annex I). Global-scale precipitation is projected to gradually increase in the 21st century. The precipitation increase
is projected to be much smaller (about 2% K1) than the rate of lower tropospheric water vapour increase (about
7% K1), due to global energetic constraints. Changes of average precipitation in a much warmer world will not be
uniform, with some regions experiencing increases, and others with decreases or not much change at all. The high
latitude land masses are likely to experience greater amounts of precipitation due to the additional water carrying
capacity of the warmer troposphere. Many mid-latitude and subtropical arid and semi-arid regions will likely experience less precipitation. The largest precipitation changes over northern Eurasia and North America are projected to
occur during the winter. {12.4.5, Annex I}
44
Technical Summary
TFE.1 (continued)
Regional to global-scale projections of soil moisture and drought remain relatively uncertain compared to other
aspects of the water cycle. Nonetheless, drying in the Mediterranean, southwestern USA and southern African
regions are consistent with projected changes in the Hadley Circulation, so drying in these regions as global temperatures increase is likely for several degrees of warming under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5.
Decreases in runoff are likely in southern Europe and the Middle East. Increased runoff is likely in high northern
latitudes, and consistent with the projected precipitation increases there. {12.4.5}
Precipitation
Evaporation
TS
Relative humidity
E-P
Runoff
Soil moisture
TFE.1, Figure 3 | Annual mean changes in precipitation (P), evaporation (E), relative humidity, E P, runoff and soil moisture for 20812100 relative to 19862005
under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 (see Box TS.6). The number of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models to calculate
the multi-model mean is indicated in the upper right corner of each panel. Hatching indicates regions where the multi-model mean change is less than one standard
deviation of internal variability. Stippling indicates regions where the multi-model mean change is greater than two standard deviations of internal variability and where
90% of models agree on the sign of change (see Box 12.1). {Figures 12.2512.27}
45
Technical Summary
There is high confidence that the Antarctic ice sheet has been losing ice
during the last two decades (Figure TS.3). There is very high confidence
that these losses are mainly from the northern Antarctic Peninsula and
the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica and high confidence that
they result from the acceleration of outlet glaciers. The average rate
of ice loss from Antarctica likely increased from 30 [37 to 97] Gt yr1
(sea level equivalent, 0.08 [0.10 to 0.27] mm yr1) over the period
19922001, to 147 [72 to 221] Gt yr1 over the period 20022011
(0.40 [0.20 to 0.61] mm yr1). {4.4.2, 4.4.3}
TS
There is high confidence that in parts of Antarctica floating ice shelves

are undergoing substantial changes. There is medium confidence that
ice shelves are thinning in the Amundsen Sea region of West Antarctica,
and low confidence that this is due to high ocean heat flux. There
is high confidence that ice shelves around the Antarctic Peninsula
continue a long-term trend of retreat and partial collapse that began
decades ago. {4.4.2, 4.4.5}
TS.2.5.5 Snow Cover, Freshwater Ice and Frozen Ground

There is very high confidence that snow cover extent has decreased in
the NH, especially in spring (Figure TS.1). Satellite records indicate that
over the period 19672012, snow cover extent very likely decreased;
the largest change, 53% [40 to 66%], occurred in June. No month
had statistically significant increases. Over the longer period, 1922
2012, data are available only for March and April, but these show very
likely a 7% [4.5 to 9.5%] decline and a negative correlation (0.76)
with March to April 40N to 60N land temperature. In the Southern
Hemisphere (SH), evidence is too limited to conclude whether changes
have occurred. {4.5.2, 4.5.3}
Permafrost temperatures have increased in most regions around the
world since the early 1980s (high confidence). These increases were
in response to increased air temperature and to changes in the timing
and thickness of snow cover (high confidence). The temperature
increase for colder permafrost was generally greater than for warmer
permafrost (high confidence). {4.7.2; Table 4.8}
above p resent, implying reduced volume of polar ice sheets. The best
estimates from various methods imply with high confidence that sea
level has not exceeded +20 m during the warmest periods of the
Pliocene, due to deglaciation of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice
sheets and areas of the East Antarctic ice sheet. {5.6.1, 13.2}
There is very high confidence that maximum GMSL during the last interglacial period (129 to 116 ka) was, for several thousand years, at least
5 m higher than present and high confidence that it did not exceed 10
m above present, implying substantial contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This change in sea level occurred in the
context of different orbital forcing and with high-latitude surface temperature, averaged over several thousand years, at least 2C warmer
than present (high confidence). Based on ice sheet model simulations
consistent with elevation changes derived from a new Greenland ice
core, the Greenland ice sheet very likely contributed between 1.4 m
and 4.3 m sea level equivalent, implying with medium confidence a
contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet to the GMSL during the Last
Interglacial Period. {5.3.4, 5.6.2, 13.2.1}
Proxy and instrumental sea level data indicate a transition in the late
19th to the early 20th century from relatively low mean rates of rise
over the previous two millennia to higher rates of rise (high confidence) {3.7, 3.7.4, 5.6.3, 13.2}
GMSL has risen by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m, estimated from a linear trend
over the period 19012010, based on tide gauge records and additionally on satellite data since 1993. It is very likely that the mean rate of
sea level rise was 1.7 [1.5 to 1.9] mm yr1 between 1901 and 2010.
Between 1993 and 2010, the rate was very likely higher at 3.2 [2.8
to 3.6] mm yr1; similarly high rates likely occurred between 1920 and
1950. The rate of GMSL rise has likely increased since the early 1900s,
with estimates ranging from 0.000 [0.002 to 0.002] to 0.013 [0.007
to 0.019] mm yr2. {3.7, 5.6.3, 13.2}
TS.2.7 Changes in Extremes

TS.2.7.1 Atmosphere
TS.2.6 Changes in Sea Level

The primary contributions to changes in the volume of water in the
ocean are the expansion of the ocean water as it warms and the transfer to the ocean of water currently stored on land, particularly from
glaciers and ice sheets. Water impoundment in reservoirs and ground
water depletion (and its subsequent runoff to the ocean) also affect
sea level. Change in sea level relative to the land (relative sea level)
can be significantly different from the global mean sea level (GMSL)
change because of changes in the distribution of water in the ocean,
vertical movement of the land and changes in the Earths gravitational
field. For an overview on the scientific understanding and uncertainties associated with recent (and projected) sea level change see TFE.2.
{3.7.3, 13.1}
During warm intervals of the mid Pliocene (3.3 to 3.0 Ma), when
there is medium confidence that GMSTs were 1.9C to 3.6C warmer
than for pre-industrial climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels were
between 350 and 450 ppm, there is high confidence that GMSL was
46
Recent analyses of extreme events generally support the AR4 and SREX
conclusions (see TFE.9 and in particular TFE.9, Table 1, for a synthesis).
It is very likely that the number of cold days and nights has decreased
and the number of warm days and nights has increased on the global
scale between 1951 and 2010. Globally, there is medium confidence
that the length and frequency of warm spells, including heat waves,
has increased since the middle of the 20th century, mostly owing to
lack of data or studies in Africa and South America. However, it is likely
that heat wave frequency has increased over this period in large parts
of Europe, Asia and Australia. {2.6.1; Tables 2.12, 2.13}
It is likely that since about 1950 the number of heavy precipitation
events over land has increased in more regions than it has decreased.
Confidence is highest for North America and Europe where there have
been likely increases in either the frequency or intensity of heavy precipitation with some seasonal and regional variations. It is very likely
that there have been trends towards heavier precipitation events in
central North America. {2.6.2; Table 2.13}
Technical Summary
TFE.2 | Sea Level Change: Scientific Understanding and Uncertainties

After the Last Glacial Maximum, global mean sea levels (GMSLs) reached close to present-day values several thousand years ago. Since then, it is virtually certain that the rate of sea level rise has increased from low rates of sea
level change during the late Holocene (order tenths of mm yr1) to 20th century rates (order mm yr1, Figure TS1).
{3.7, 5.6, 13.2}
Ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss are the dominant contributors to GMSL rise during the 20th century
(high confidence). It is very likely that warming of the ocean has contributed 0.8 [0.5 to 1.1] mm yr1 of sea level
change during 19712010, with the majority of the contribution coming from the upper 700 m. The model mean
rate of ocean thermal expansion for 19712010 is close to observations. {3.7, 13.3}
Observations, combined with improved methods of analysis, indicate that the global glacier contribution (excluding
the peripheral glaciers around Greenland and Antarctica) to sea level was 0.25 to 0.99 mm yr1 sea level equivalent
during 19712010. Medium confidence in global glacier mass balance models used for projections of glacier changes arises from the process-based understanding of glacier surface mass balance, the consistency of observations and
models of glacier changes, and the evidence that AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) climate
simulations can provide realitistic climate input. A simulation using observed climate data shows a larger rate of
glacier mass loss during the 1930s than the simulations using AOGCM input, possibly a result of an episode of warming in Greenland associated with unforced regional climate variability. {4.3, 13.3}
TS
Observations indicate that the Greenland ice sheet has very likely experienced a net loss of mass due to both
increased surface melting and runoff, and increased ice discharge over the last two decades (Figure TS.3). Regional
climate models indicate that Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance showed no significant trend from the 1960s
to the 1980s, but melting and consequent runoff has increased since the early 1990s. This tendency is related to
pronounced regional warming, which may be attributed to a combination of anomalous regional variability in
recent years and anthropogenic climate change. High confidence in projections of future warming in Greenland
and increased surface melting is based on the qualitative agreements of models in projecting amplified warming at
high northern latitudes for well-understood physical reasons. {4.4, 13.3}
There is high confidence that the Antarctic ice sheet is in a state of net mass loss and its contribution to sea level
is also likely to have increased over the last two decades. Acceleration in ice outflow has been observed since the
1990s, especially in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica. Interannual variability in accumulation is large
and as a result no significant trend is present in accumulation since 1979 in either models or observations. Surface
melting is currently negligible in Antarctica. {4.4, 13.3}
Model-based estimates of climate-related changes in water storage on land (as snow cover, surface water, soil moisture and ground water) do not show significant long-term contributions to sea level change for recent decades.
However, human-induced changes (reservoir impoundment and groundwater depletion) have each contributed at
least several tenths of mm yr1 to sea level change. Reservoir impoundment exceeded groundwater depletion for
the majority of the 20th century but the rate of groundwater depletion has increased and now exceeds the rate of
impoundment. Their combined net contribution for the 20th century is estimated to be small. {13.3}
The observed GMSL rise for 19932010 is consistent with the sum of the observationally estimated contributions
(TFE.2, Figure 1e). The closure of the observational budget for recent periods within uncertainties represents a
significant advance since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in physical understanding of the causes of past GMSL
change, and provides an improved basis for critical evaluation of models of these contributions in order to assess
their reliability for making projections. {13.3}
The sum of modelled ocean thermal expansion and glacier contributions and the estimated change in land water
storage (which is relatively small) accounts for about 65% of the observed GMSL rise for 19011990, and 90% for
19712010 and 19932010 (TFE.2, Figure 1). After inclusion of small long-term contributions from ice sheets and
the possible greater mass loss from glaciers during the 1930s due to unforced climate variability, the sum of the
modelled contribution is close to the observed rise. The addition of the observed ice sheet contribution since 1993
improves the agreement further between the observed and modelled sea level rise (TFE.2, Figure 1). The evidence
now available gives a clearer account than in previous IPCC assessments of 20th century sea level change. {13.3}
47
Technical Summary
TFE.2 (continued)
(a)
Tide gauge
(b)
TS
(c)
(d)
(e)
Year
TFE.2, Figure 1 | (a) The observed and modelled sea level for 1900 to 2010. (b) The rates of sea level change for the same period, with the satellite altimeter data
shown as a red dot for the rate. (c) The observed and modelled sea level for 1961 to 2010. (d) The observed and modelled sea level for 1990 to 2010. Panel (e) compares the sum of the observed contributions (orange) and the observed sea level from the satellite altimeter data (red). Estimates of GMSL from different sources are
given, with the shading indicating the uncertainty estimates (two standard deviations). The satellite altimeter data since 1993 are shown in red. The grey lines in panels
(a)-(d) are the sums of the contributions from modelled ocean thermal expansion and glaciers (excluding glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic ice sheet), plus changes
in land-water storage (see Figure 13.4). The black line is the mean of the grey lines plus a correction of thermal expansion for the omission of volcanic forcing in the
AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) control experiments (see Section 13.3.1). The dashed black line (adjusted model mean) is the sum of the corrected model mean thermal expansion, the change in land water storage, the glacier estimate using observed (rather than modelled) climate (see Figure 13.4), and an
illustrative long-term ice-sheet contribution (of 0.1 mm yr1). The dotted black line is the adjusted model mean but now including the observed ice-sheet contributions,
which begin in 1993. Because the observational ice-sheet estimates include the glaciers peripheral to the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (from Section 4.4), the
contribution from glaciers to the adjusted model mean excludes the peripheral glaciers (PGs) to avoid double counting. {13.3; Figure 13.7}
48
Technical Summary
TFE.2 (continued)
When calibrated appropriately, recently improved dynamical ice sheet models can reproduce the observed rapid
changes in ice sheet outflow for individual glacier systems (e.g., Pine Island Glacier in Antarctica; medium confidence). However, models of ice sheet response to global warming and particularly ice sheetocean interactions are
incomplete and the omission of ice sheet models, especially of dynamics, from the model budget of the past means
that they have not been as critically evaluated as other contributions. {13.3, 13.4}
TS
TFE.2, Figure 2 | Compilation of paleo sealevel data (purple), tide gauge data (blue, red and green), altimeter data (light blue) and central estimates and likely ranges
for projections of global mean sea level rise from the combination of CMIP5 and process-based models for RCP2.6 (blue) and RCP8.5 (red) scenarios, all relative to
pre-industrial values. {Figures 13.3, 13.11, 13.27}
GMSL rise for 20812100 (relative to 19862005) for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) will likely
be in the 5 to 95% ranges derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections in combination with process-based models of other contributions (medium confidence), that is, 0.26 to 0.55 m
(RCP2.6), 0.32 to 0.63 m (RCP4.5), 0.33 to 0.63 m (RCP6.0), 0.45 to 0.82 (RCP8.5) m (see Table TS.1 and Figure TS.15 for
RCP forcing). For RCP8.5 the range at 2100 is 0.52 to 0.98 m. Confidence in the projected likely ranges comes from
the consistency of process-based models with observations and physical understanding. It is assessed that there is
currently insufficient evidence to evaluate the probability of specific levels above the likely range. Based on current
understanding, only the collapse of marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if initiated, could cause GMSL
to rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. There is a lack of consensus on the probability
for such a collapse, and the potential additional contribution to GMSL rise cannot be precisely quantified, but there
is medium confidence that it would not exceed several tenths of a metre of sea level rise during the 21st century. It
is virtually certain that GMSL rise will continue beyond 2100. {13.5.1, 13.5.3}
Many semi-empirical models projections of GMSL rise are higher than process-based model projections, but there is
no consensus in the scientific community about their reliability and there is thus low confidence in their projections.
{13.5.2, 13.5.3}
TFE.2, Figure 2 combines the paleo, tide gauge and altimeter observations of sea level rise from 1700 with the projected GMSL change to 2100. {13.5, 13.7, 13.8}
49
Technical Summary
There is low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought or

dryness (lack of rainfall), owing to lack of direct observations, dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice and geographical inconsistencies in the trends. However, this masks important regional changes and, for example, the frequency and intensity of drought have likely
increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and likely decreased
in central North America and northwest Australia since 1950. {2.6.2;
Table 2.13}
TS
There is high confidence for droughts during the last millennium of

greater magnitude and longer duration than those observed since the
beginning of the 20th century in many regions. There is medium confidence that more megadroughts occurred in monsoon Asia and wetter
conditions prevailed in arid Central Asia and the South American monsoon region during the Little Ice Age (14501850) compared to the
Medieval Climate Anomaly (9501250). {5.5.4, 5.5.5}
Confidence remains low for long-term (centennial) changes in tropical cyclone activity, after accounting for past changes in observing
capabilities. However, for the years since the 1970s, it is virtually certain that the frequency and intensity of storms in the North Atlantic
have increased although the reasons for this increase are debated (see
TFE.9). There is low confidence of large-scale trends in storminess over
the last century and there is still insufficient evidence to determine
whether robust trends exist in small-scale severe weather events such
as hail or thunderstorms. {2.6.22.6.4}
With high confidence, floods larger than recorded since the 20th century occurred during the past five centuries in northern and central
Europe, the western Mediterranean region and eastern Asia. There
is medium confidence that in the Near East, India and central North
America, modern large floods are comparable or surpass historical
floods in magnitude and/or frequency. {5.5.5}
TS.2.7.2 Oceans
It is likely that the magnitude of extreme high sea level events has
increased since 1970 (see TFE.9, Table 1). Most of the increase in
extreme sea level can be explained by the mean sea level rise: changes
in extreme high sea levels are reduced to less than 5 mm yr1 at 94%
of tide gauges once the rise in mean sea level is accounted for. There
is medium confidence based on reanalysis forced model hindcasts and
ship observations that mean significant wave height has increased
since the 1950s over much of the North Atlantic north of 45N, with
typical winter season trends of up to 20 cm per decade. {3.4.5, 3.7.5}
TS.2.8 Changes in Carbon and Other Biogeochemical

Cycles
Concentrations of the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) carbon
dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in 2011 exceed
the range of concentrations recorded in ice cores during the past 800
kyr. Past changes in atmospheric GHG concentrations are determined
with very high confidence from polar ice cores. Since AR4 these records
have been extended from 650 ka to 800 ka. {5.2.2}
With very high confidence, the current rates of CO2, CH4 and N2O rise
in atmospheric concentrations and the associated increases in RF are
unprecedented with respect to the highest resolution ice core records
of the last 22 kyr. There is medium confidence that the rate of change
of the observed GHG rise is also unprecedented compared with the
lower resolution records of the past 800 kyr. {2.2.1, 5.2.2}
In several periods characterized by high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, there is medium confidence that global mean temperature was
significantly above pre-industrial level. During the mid-Pliocene (3.3
to 3.0 Ma), atmospheric CO2 concentration between 350 ppm and
450 ppm (medium confidence) occurred when GMST was 1.9C to
3.6C warmer (medium confidence) than for pre-industrial climate.
During the Early Eocene (52 to 48 Ma), atmospheric CO2 concentration exceeded about 1000 ppm when GMST was 9C to 14C higher
(medium confidence) than for pre-industrial conditions. {5.3.1}
TS.2.8.1 Carbon Dioxide

Between 1750 and 2011, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion
and cement production are estimated from energy and fuel use statistics to have released 375 [345 to 405] PgC9. In 20022011, average
fossil fuel and cement manufacturing emissions were 8.3 [7.6 to 9.0]
PgC yr1 (high confidence), with an average growth rate of 3.2% yr1
(Figure TS.4). This rate of increase of fossil fuel emissions is higher than
during the 1990s (1.0% yr1). In 2011, fossil fuel emissions were 9.5
[8.7 to 10.3] PgC. {2.2.1, 6.3.1; Table 6.1}
Between 1750 and 2011, land use change (mainly deforestation),
derived from land cover data and modelling, is estimated to have
released 180 [100 to 260] PgC. Land use change emissions between
2002 and 2011 are dominated by tropical deforestation, and are estimated at 0.9 [0.1 to 1.7] PgC yr1 (medium confidence), with possibly a
small decrease from the 1990s due to lower reported forest loss during
this decade. This estimate includes gross deforestation emissions of
around 3 PgC yr1 compensated by around 2 PgC yr1 of forest regrowth
in some regions, mainly abandoned agricultural land. {6.3.2; Table 6.2}
Of the 555 [470 to 640] PgC released to the atmosphere from fossil
fuel and land use emissions from 1750 to 2011, 240 [230 to 250] PgC
accumulated in the atmosphere, as estimated with very high accuracy
from the observed increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration from
278 [273 to 283] ppm10 in 1750 to 390.5 [390.4 to 390.6] ppm in
2011. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere grew by 4.0 [3.8 to 4.2]
PgC yr1 in the first decade of the 21st century. The distribution of
observed atmospheric CO2 increases with latitude clearly shows that
the increases are driven by anthropogenic emissions that occur primarily in the industrialized countries north of the equator. Based on annual
average concentrations, stations in the NH show slightly higher concentrations than stations in the SH. An independent line of evidence
1 Petagram of carbon = 1 PgC = 1015 grams of carbon = 1 Gigatonne of carbon = 1 GtC. This corresponds to 3.667 GtCO2.
ppm (parts per million) or ppb (parts per billion, 1 billion = 1000 million) is the ratio of the number of greenhouse gas molecules to the total number of molecules of dry air. For
example, 300 ppm means 300 molecules of a greenhouse gas per million molecules of dry air.
10
50
Technical Summary
for the anthropogenic origin of the observed atmospheric CO2 increase

comes from the observed consistent decrease in atmospheric oxygen
(O2) content and a decrease in the stable isotopic ratio of CO2 (13C/12C)
in the atmosphere (Figure TS.5). {2.2.1, 6.1.3}
The remaining amount of carbon released by fossil fuel and land
use emissions has been re-absorbed by the ocean and terrestrial
ecosystems. Based on high agreement between independent estimates using different methods and data sets (e.g., oceanic carbon,
oxygen and transient tracer data), it is very likely that the global ocean
1750
Fossil fuel and cement

CO2 emissions (PgC yr 1)
10
1800
1850
inventory of anthropogenic carbon increased from 1994 to 2010. In

2011, it is estimated to be 155 [125 to 185] PgC. The annual global
oceanic uptake rates calculated from independent data sets (from
changes in the oceanic inventory of anthropogenic carbon, from measurements of the atmospheric oxygen to nitrogen ratio (O2/N2) or from
CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) data) and for different time periods agree
with each other within their uncertainties, and very likely are in the
range of 1.0 to 3.2 PgC yr1. Regional observations of the storage
rate of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean are in broad agreement
with the expected rate resulting from the increase in atmospheric CO2
1900
1950
2000
cement
gas
oil
coal
TS
Annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions

and partitioning (PgC yr 1)
10
fossil fuel and cement from energy statistics

land use change from data and models
residual land sink
measured atmospheric growth rate
ocean sink from data and models
emissions
0
partitioning
5
10
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Year
Figure TS.4 | Annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land and ocean (PgC yr1) from 1750 to 2011. (Top) Fossil fuel and cement
CO2 emissions by category, estimated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC). (Bottom) Fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions as above. CO2 emissions from
net land use change, mainly deforestation, are based on land cover change data (see Table 6.2). The atmospheric CO2 growth rate prior to 1959 is based on a spline fit to ice core
observations and a synthesis of atmospheric measurements from 1959. The fit to ice core observations does not capture the large interannual variability in atmospheric CO2 and
is represented with a dashed line. The ocean CO2 sink is from a combination of models and observations. The residual land sink (term in green in the figure) is computed from the
residual of the other terms. The emissions and their partitioning include only the fluxes that have changed since 1750, and not the natural CO2 fluxes (e.g., atmospheric CO2 uptake
from weathering, outgassing of CO2 from lakes and rivers and outgassing of CO2 by the ocean from carbon delivered by rivers; see Figure 6.1) between the atmosphere, land and
ocean reservoirs that existed before that time and still exist today. The uncertainties in the various terms are discussed in Chapter 6 and reported in Table 6.1 for decadal mean
values. {Figure 6.8}
51
Technical Summary
the beginning of the industrial era (high confidence), corresponding to

a 26% increase in hydrogen ion concentration. The observed pH trends
range between 0.0014 and 0.0024 per year in surface waters. In
the ocean interior, natural physical and biological processes, as well as
uptake of anthropogenic CO2, can cause changes in pH over decadal
and longer time scales. {3.8.2; Box 3.2; Table 3.2; FAQ 3.3}
TS.2.8.3 Methane
The concentration of CH4 has increased by a factor of 2.5 since preindustrial times, from 722 [697 to 747] ppb in 1750 to 1803 [1799 to
1807] ppb in 2011 (Figure TS.5). There is very high confidence that the
atmospheric CH4 increase during the Industrial Era is caused by anthropogenic activities. The massive increase in the number of ruminants,
the emissions from fossil fuel extraction and use, the expansion of
rice paddy agriculture and the emissions from landfills and waste are
the dominant anthropogenic CH4 sources. Anthropogenic emissions
account for 50 to 65% of total emissions. By including natural geological CH4 emissions that were not accounted for in previous budgets, the
fossil component of the total CH4 emissions (i.e., anthropogenic emissions related to leaks in the fossil fuel industry and natural geological
leaks) is now estimated to amount to about 30% of the total CH4 emissions (medium confidence). {2.2.1, 6.1, 6.3.3}
TS
Figure TS.5 | Atmospheric concentration of CO2, oxygen, 13C/12C stable isotope ratio
in CO2, as well as CH4 and N2O atmospheric concentrations and oceanic surface observations of CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and pH, recorded at representative time series
stations in the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres. MLO: Mauna Loa Observatory,
Hawaii; SPO: South Pole; HOT: Hawaii Ocean Time-Series station; MHD: Mace Head,
Ireland; CGO: Cape Grim, Tasmania; ALT: Alert, Northwest Territories, Canada. Further
detail regarding the related Figure SPM.4 is given in the TS Supplementary Material.
{Figures 3.18, 6.3; FAQ 3.3, Figure 1}
In recent decades, CH4 growth in the atmosphere has been variable. CH4
concentrations were relatively stable for about a decade in the 1990s,
but then started growing again starting in 2007. The exact drivers of
this renewed growth are still debated. Climate-driven fluctuations of
CH4 emissions from natural wetlands (177 to 284 1012 g (CH4) yr1 for
20002009 based on bottom-up estimates) are the main drivers of the
global interannual variability of CH4 emissions (high confidence), with
a smaller contribution from biomass burning emissions during high fire
years {2.2.1, 6.3.3; Table 6.8}.
TS.2.8.4 Nitrous Oxide

concentrations, but with significant spatial and temporal variations.
{3.8.1, 6.3}
Natural terrestrial ecosystems (those not affected by land use change)
are estimated by difference from changes in other reservoirs to have
accumulated 160 [70 to 250] PgC between 1750 and 2011. The gain
of carbon by natural terrestrial ecosystems is estimated to take place
mainly through the uptake of CO2 by enhanced photosynthesis at
higher CO2 levels and nitrogen deposition and longer growing seasons
in mid and high latitudes. Natural carbon sinks vary regionally owing
to physical, biological and chemical processes acting on different time
scales. An excess of atmospheric CO2 absorbed by land ecosystems
gets stored as organic matter in diverse carbon pools, from short-lived
(leaves, fine roots) to long-lived (stems, soil carbon). {6.3; Table 6.1}
TS.2.8.2 Carbon and Ocean Acidification
Since pre-industrial times, the concentration of N2O in the atmosphere

has increased by a factor of 1.2 (Figure TS.5). Changes in the nitrogen cycle, in addition to interactions with CO2 sources and sinks, affect
emissions of N2O both on land and from the ocean. {2.2.1, 6.4.6}
TS.2.8.5 Oceanic Oxygen

High agreement among analyses provides medium confidence that
oxygen concentrations have decreased in the open ocean thermocline
in many ocean regions since the 1960s. The general decline is consistent with the expectation that warming-induced stratification leads
to a decrease in the supply of oxygen to the thermocline from near
surface waters, that warmer waters can hold less oxygen and that
changes in wind-driven circulation affect oxygen concentrations. It is
likely that the tropical oxygen minimum zones have expanded in recent
decades. {3.8.3}
Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 results in gradual acidification of

the ocean. The pH11 of ocean surface water has decreased by 0.1 since
pH is a measure of acidity: a decrease in pH value means an increase in acidity, that is, acidification.
11
52
Technical Summary
TS.3
Drivers of Climate Change
TS.3.1 Introduction
Human activities have changed and continue to change the Earths
surface and atmospheric composition. Some of these changes have
a direct or indirect impact on the energy balance of the Earth and are
thus drivers of climate change. Radiative forcing (RF) is a measure of
the net change in the energy balance of the Earth system in response to
some external perturbation (see Box TS.2), with positive RF leading to
a warming and negative RF to a cooling. The RF concept is valuable for
comparing the influence on GMST of most individual agents affecting
the Earths radiation balance. The quantitative values provided in AR5
are consistent with those in previous IPCC reports, though there have
been some important revisions (Figure TS.6). Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is now used to quantify the impact of some forcing agents
that involve rapid adjustments of components of the atmosphere and
surface that are assumed constant in the RF concept (see Box TS.2).
RF and ERF are estimated from the change between 1750 and 2011,
referred to as Industrial Era, if other time periods are not explicitly
stated. Uncertainties are given associated with the best estimates of
RF and ERF, with values representing the 5 to 95% (90%) confidence
range. {8.1, 7.1}
In addition to the global mean RF or ERF, the spatial distribution and
temporal evolution of forcing, as well as climate feedbacks, play a
role in determining the eventual impact of various drivers on climate.
Land surface changes may also impact the local and regional climate
through processes that are not radiative in nature. {8.1, 8.3.5, 8.6}
TS.3.2 Radiative Forcing from Greenhouse Gases

Human activity leads to change in the atmospheric composition either
directly (via emissions of gases or particles) or indirectly (via atmospheric chemistry). Anthropogenic emissions have driven the changes
in well-mixed greenhouse gas (WMGHG) concentrations during the

Industrial Era (see Section TS.2.8 and TFE.7). As historical WMGHG
concentrations since the pre-industrial are well known based on direct
measurements and ice core records, and WMGHG radiative properties are also well known, the computation of RF due to concentration changes provides tightly constrained values (Figure TS.6). There
has not been significant change in our understanding of WMGHG
radiative impact, so that the changes in RF estimates relative to AR4
are due essentially to concentration increases. The best estimate for
WMGHG ERF is the same as RF, but the uncertainty range is twice as
large due to the poorly constrained cloud responses. Owing to highquality observations, it is certain that increasing atmospheric burdens
of most WMGHGs, especially CO2, resulted in a further increase in their
RF from 2005 to 2011. Based on concentration changes, the RF of all
WMGHGs in 2011 is 2.83 [2.54 to 3.12] W m2 (very high confidence).
This is an increase since AR4 of 0.20 [0.18 to 0.22] W m2, with nearly
all of the increase due to the increase in the abundance of CO2 since
2005. The Industrial Era RF for CO2 alone is 1.82 [1.63 to 2.01] W m2.
Over the last 15 years, CO2 has been the dominant contributor to the
increase in RF from the WMGHGs, with RF of CO2 having an average
growth rate slightly less than 0.3 W m2 per decade. The uncertainty in
the WMGHG RF is due in part to its radiative properties but mostly to
the full accounting of atmospheric radiative transfer including clouds.
{2.2.1, 5.2, 6.3, 8.3, 8.3.2; Table 6.1}
After a decade of near stability, the recent increase of CH4 concentration led to an enhanced RF compared to AR4 by 2% to 0.48 [0.43 to
0.53] W m2. It is very likely that the RF from CH4 is now larger than that
of all halocarbons combined. {2.2.1, 8.3.2}
Atmospheric N2O has increased by 6% since AR4, causing an RF of 0.17
[0.14 to 0.20] W m2. N2O concentrations continue to rise while those
of dichlorodifluoromethane (CF2Cl2, CFC-12), the third largest WMGHG
contributor to RF for several decades, are decreasing due to phaseout of emissions of this chemical under the Montreal Protocol. Since
Box TS.2 | Radiative Forcing and Effective Radiative Forcing

RF and ERF are used to quantify the change in the Earths energy balance that occurs as a result of an externally imposed change. They
are expressed in watts per square metre (W m2). RF is defined in AR5, as in previous IPCC assessments, as the change in net downward
flux (shortwave + longwave) at the tropopause after allowing for stratospheric temperatures to readjust to radiative equilibrium, while
holding other state variables such as tropospheric temperatures, water vapour and cloud cover fixed at the unperturbed values (see
Glossary). {8.1.1}
Although the RF concept has proved very valuable, improved understanding has shown that including rapid adjustments of the Earths
surface and troposphere can provide a better metric for quantifying the climate response. These rapid adjustments occur over a variety
of time scales, but are relatively distinct from responses to GMST change. Aerosols in particular impact the atmosphere temperature
profile and cloud properties on a time scale much shorter than adjustments of the ocean (even the upper layer) to forcings. The ERF
concept defined in AR5 allows rapid adjustments to perturbations, for all variables except for GMST or ocean temperature and sea ice
cover. The ERF and RF values are significantly different for the anthropogenic aerosols, owing to their influence on clouds and on snow
or ice cover. For other components that drive the Earths energy balance, such as GHGs, ERF and RF are fairly similar, and RF may have
comparable utility given that it requires fewer computational resources to calculate and is not affected by meteorological variability
and hence can better isolate small forcings. In cases where RF and ERF differ substantially, ERF has been shown to be a better indicator
of the GMST response and is therefore emphasized in AR5. {7.1, 8.1; Box 8.1}
53
TS
Technical Summary
AR4, N2O has overtaken CFC-12 to become the third largest WMGHG
contributor to RF. The RF from halocarbons is very similar to the value
in AR4, with a reduced RF from CFCs but increases in many of their
replacements. Four of the halocarbons (trichlorofluoromethane (CFCl3,
CFC-11), CFC-12, trichlorotrifluoroethane (CF2ClCFCl2, CFC-113) and
chlorodifluoromethane (CHF2Cl, HCFC-22) account for 85% of the total
halocarbon RF. The former three compounds have declining RF over
the last 5 years but are more than compensated for by the increased
RF from HCFC-22. There is high confidence that the growth rate in RF

from all WMGHG is weaker over the last decade than in the 1970s and
1980s owing to a slower increase in the non-CO2 RF. {2.2.1, 8.3.2}
The short-lived GHGs ozone (O3) and stratospheric water vapour also
contribute to anthropogenic forcing. Observations indicate that O3
likely increased at many undisturbed (background) locations through
the 1990s. These increases have continued mainly over Asia (though
Radiative forcing of climate between 1750 and 2011
Forcing agent
Well Mixed
Greenhouse Gases
Ozone
Anthropogenic
TS
CO2
Other WMGHG
Stratospheric
CH4 N2O
Very High
Halocarbons
Very High
High
Tropospheric
Stratospheric water
vapour from CH4
Medium
AR4 estimates
Surface Albedo
Land Use
Contrails
Black carbon
on snow
High/Low
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Contrail induced cirrus
Aerosol-Radiation Interac.
Low
Aerosol-Cloud Interac.
Natural
Confidence
Level
Total anthropogenic
Medium
Solar irradiance
-1
0
1
Radiative Forcing (W m-2)
AR4 RF
1.2
Probability density function
Greenhouse
gases
1.0
0.8
Aerosols
Total
anthropogenic
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-2
Effective radiative forcing (W m-2)
Figure TS.6 | Radiative forcing (RF) and Effective radiative forcing (ERF) of climate change during the Industrial Era. (Top) Forcing by concentration change between 1750 and
2011 with associated uncertainty range (solid bars are ERF, hatched bars are RF, green diamonds and associated uncertainties are for RF assessed in AR4). (Bottom) Probability
density functions (PDFs) for the ERF, for the aerosol, greenhouse gas (GHG) and total. The green lines show the AR4 RF 90% confidence intervals and can be compared with the red,
blue and black lines which show the AR5 ERF 90% confidence intervals (although RF and ERF differ, especially for aerosols). The ERF from surface albedo changes and combined
contrails and contrail-induced cirrus is included in the total anthropogenic forcing, but not shown as a separate PDF. For some forcing mechanisms (ozone, land use, solar) the RF is
assumed to be representative of the ERF but an additional uncertainty of 17% is added in quadrature to the RF uncertainty. {Figures 8.15, 8.16}
54
Technical Summary
observations cover a limited area) and flattened over Europe during

the last decade. The total RF due to changes in O3 is 0.35 [0.15 to 0.55]
W m2 (high confidence), with RF due to tropospheric O3 of 0.40 [0.20
to 0.60] W m2 (high confidence) and due to stratospheric O3 of 0.05
[0.15 to +0.05] W m2 (high confidence). O3 is not emitted directly
into the atmosphere; instead it is formed by photochemical reactions.
In the troposphere these reactions involve precursor compounds that
are emitted into the atmosphere from a variety of natural and anthropogenic sources. Tropospheric O3 RF is largely attributed to increases
in emissions of CH4, carbon monoxide, volatile organics and nitrogen
oxides, while stratospheric RF results primarily from O3 depletion by
anthropogenic halocarbons. However, there is now strong evidence
for substantial links between the changes in tropospheric and stratospheric O3 and a total O3 RF of 0.50 [0.30 to 0.70] W m2 is attributed
to tropospheric O3 precursor emissions and 0.15 [0.30 to 0.00] W
m2 to O3 depletion by halocarbons. There is strong evidence that tropospheric O3 also has a detrimental impact on vegetation physiology,
and therefore on its CO2 uptake. This reduced uptake leads to an indirect increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Thus a fraction of
the CO2 RF should be attributed to ozone or its precursors rather than
direct emission of CO2, but there is a low confidence on the quantitative estimates. RF for stratospheric water vapour produced from CH4
oxidation is 0.07 [0.02 to 0.12] W m2. Other changes in stratospheric
water vapour, and all changes in water vapour in the troposphere, are
regarded as a feedback rather than a forcing. {2.2.2, 8.18.3; FAQ 8.1}
microphysical effects on mixed-phase, ice and convective clouds. This

range was obtained by giving equal weight to satellite-based studies
and estimates from climate models. It is consistent with multiple lines
of evidence suggesting less negative estimates for aerosolcloud interactions than those discussed in AR4. {7.4, 7.5, 8.5}
TS.3.3 Radiative Forcing from Anthropogenic Aerosols
There is robust evidence that anthropogenic land use changes such as

deforestation have increased the land surface albedo, which leads to
an RF of 0.15 [0.25 to 0.05] W m2. There is still a large spread of
quantitative estimates owing to different assumptions for the albedo of
natural and managed surfaces (e.g., croplands, pastures). In addition,
the time evolution of the land use change, and in particular how much
was already completed in the reference year 1750, are still debated.
Furthermore, land use change causes other modifications that are not
radiative but impact the surface temperature, including modifications
in the surface roughness, latent heat flux, river runoff and irrigation.
These are more uncertain and they are difficult to quantify, but they
tend to offset the impact of albedo changes at the global scale. As a
consequence, there is low agreement on the sign of the net change
in global mean temperature as a result of land use change. Land use
change, and in particular deforestation, also has significant impacts on
WMGHG concentrations. It contributes to the corresponding RF associated with CO2 emissions or concentration changes. {8.3.5}
Anthropogenic aerosols are responsible for an RF of climate through

multiple processes which can be grouped into two types: aerosolradiation interactions (ari) and aerosolcloud interactions (aci). There has
been progress since AR4 on observing and modelling climate-relevant
aerosol properties (including their size distribution, hygroscopicity,
chemical composition, mixing state, optical and cloud nucleation properties) and their atmospheric distribution. Nevertheless, substantial
uncertainties remain in assessments of long-term trends of global
aerosol optical depth and other global properties of aerosols due to
difficulties in measurement and lack of observations of some relevant
parameters, high spatial and temporal variability and the relatively
short observational records that exist. The anthropogenic RFari is given
a best estimate of 0.35 [0.85 to +0.15] W m2 (high confidence)
using evidence from aerosol models and some constraints from observations. The RFari is caused by multiple aerosol types (see Section
TS3.6). The rapid adjustment to RFari leads to further negative forcing,
in particular through cloud adjustments, and is attributable primarily
to black carbon. As a consequence, the ERFari is more negative than
the RFari (low confidence) and given a best estimate of 0.45 [0.95 to
+0.05] W m2. The assessment for RFari is less negative than reported
in AR4 because of a re-evaluation of aerosol absorption. The uncertainty estimate is wider but more robust. {2.2.3, 7.3, 7.5.2}
Improved understanding of aerosolcloud interactions has led to a
reduction in the magnitude of many global aerosolcloud forcings estimates. The total ERF due to aerosols (ERFari+aci, excluding the effect
of absorbing aerosol on snow and ice) is assessed to be 0.9 [1.9
to 0.1] W m2 (medium confidence). This estimate encompasses all
rapid adjustments, including changes to the cloud lifetime and aerosol
The RF from black carbon (BC) on snow and ice is assessed to be 0.04
[0.02 to 0.09] W m2 (low confidence). Unlike in the previous IPCC
assessment, this estimate includes the effects on sea ice, accounts for
more physical processes and incorporates evidence from both models
and observations. This RF causes a two to four times larger GMST
change per unit forcing than CO2 primarily because all of the forcing energy is deposited directly into the cryosphere, whose evolution
drives a positive albedo feedback on climate. This effect thus can represent a significant forcing mechanism in the Arctic and other snow- or
ice-covered regions. {7.3, 7.5.2, 8.3.4, 8.5}
Despite the large uncertainty ranges on aerosol forcing, there is a high
confidence that aerosols have offset a substantial portion of GHG
forcing. Aerosolcloud interactions can influence the character of individual storms, but evidence for a systematic aerosol effect on storm or
precipitation intensity is more limited and ambiguous. {7.4, 7.6, 8.5}
TS.3.4 Radiative Forcing from Land Surface Changes

and Contrails
Persistent contrails from aviation contribute a positive RF of 0.01

[0.005 to 0.03] W m2 (medium confidence) for year 2011, and the
combined contrail and contrail-cirrus ERF from aviation is assessed to
be 0.05 [0.02 to 0.15] W m2 (low confidence). This forcing can be much
larger regionally but there is now medium confidence that it does not
produce observable regional effects on either the mean or diurnal
range of surface temperature. {7.2.7}
TS.3.5 Radiative Forcing from Natural Drivers of

Climate Change
Solar and volcanic forcings are the two dominant natural contributors
to global climate change during the Industrial Era. Satellite observations
55
TS
Technical Summary
TS
of total solar irradiance (TSI) changes since 1978 show quasi-periodic

cyclical variation with a period of roughly 11 years. Longer term forcing is typically estimated by comparison of solar minima (during which
variability is least). This gives an RF change of 0.04 [0.08 to 0.00] W
m2 between the most recent (2008) minimum and the 1986 minimum.
There is some diversity in the estimated trends of the composites of
various satellite data, however. Secular trends of TSI before the start
of satellite observations rely on a number of indirect proxies. The best
estimate of RF from TSI changes over the industrial era is 0.05 [0.00
to 0.10] W m2 (medium confidence), which includes greater RF up to
around 1980 and then a small downward trend. This RF estimate is
substantially smaller than the AR4 estimate due to the addition of the
latest solar cycle and inconsistencies in how solar RF was estimated in
earlier IPCC assessments. The recent solar minimum appears to have
been unusually low and long-lasting and several projections indicate
lower TSI for the forthcoming decades. However, current abilities to
project solar irradiance are extremely limited so that there is very low
confidence concerning future solar forcing. Nonetheless, there is a high
confidence that 21st century solar forcing will be much smaller than
the projected increased forcing due to WMGHGs. {5.2.1, 8.4.1; FAQ 5.1}
Changes in solar activity affect the cosmic ray flux impinging upon
the Earths atmosphere, which has been hypothesized to affect climate
through changes in cloudiness. Cosmic rays enhance aerosol nucleation
and thus may affect cloud condensation nuclei production in the free
troposphere, but the effect is too weak to have any climatic influence
during a solar cycle or over the last century (medium evidence, high
agreement). No robust association between changes in cosmic rays
and cloudiness has been identified. In the event that such an association existed, a mechanism other than cosmic rayinduced nucleation
of new aerosol particles would be needed to explain it. {7.3, 7.4.6}
The RF of stratospheric volcanic aerosols is now well understood and
there is a large RF for a few years after major volcanic eruptions (Box
TS.5, Figure 1). Although volcanic eruptions inject both mineral particles and sulphate aerosol precursors into the atmosphere, it is the
latter, because of their small size and long lifetimes, that are responsible for RF important for climate. The emissions of CO2 from volcanic
eruptions are at least 100 times smaller than anthropogenic emissions,
and inconsequential for climate on century time scales. Large tropical
volcanic eruptions have played an important role in driving annual to
decadal scale climate change during the Industrial Era owing to their
sometimes very large negative RF. There has not been any major volcanic eruption since Mt Pinatubo in 1991, which caused a 1-year RF
of about 3.0 W m2, but several smaller eruptions have caused an
RF averaged over the years 20082011 of 0.11 [0.15 to 0.08] W
m2 (high confidence), twice as strong in magnitude compared to the
19992002 average. The smaller eruptions have led to better understanding of the dependence of RF on the amount of material from
high-latitude injections as well as the time of the year when they take
place. {5.2.1, 5.3.5, 8.4.2; Annex II}
TS.3.6 Synthesis of Forcings; Spatial and Temporal

Evolution
A synthesis of the Industrial Era forcing finds that among the forcing
agents, there is a very high confidence only for the WMGHG RF. Relative
56
to AR4, the confidence level has been elevated for seven forcing agents
owing to improved evidence and understanding. {8.5; Figure 8.14}
The time evolution of the total anthropogenic RF shows a nearly continuous increase from 1750, primarily since about 1860. The total
anthropogenic RF increase rate since 1960 has been much greater than
during earlier Industrial Era periods, driven primarily by the continuous
increase in most WMGHG concentrations. There is still low agreement
on the time evolution of the total aerosol ERF, which is the primary
factor for the uncertainty in the total anthropogenic forcing. The fractional uncertainty in the total anthropogenic forcing decreases gradually after 1950 owing to the smaller offset of positive WMGHG forcing by
negative aerosol forcing. There is robust evidence and high agreement
that natural forcing is a small fraction of the WMGHG forcing. Natural
forcing changes over the last 15 years have likely offset a substantial
fraction (at least 30%) of the anthropogenic forcing increase during
this period (Box TS.3). Forcing by CO2 is the largest single contributor to the total forcing during the Industrial Era and from 19802011.
Compared to the entire Industrial Era, the dominance of CO2 forcing
is larger for the 19802011 change with respect to other WMGHGs,
and there is high confidence that the offset from aerosol forcing to
WMGHG forcing during this period was much smaller than over the
19501980 period. {8.5.2}
Forcing can also be attributed to emissions rather than to the resulting concentration changes (Figure TS.7). Carbon dioxide is the largest
single contributor to historical RF from either the perspective of changes in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 or the impact of changes in
net emissions of CO2. The relative importance of other forcing agents
can vary markedly with the perspective chosen, however. In particular, CH4 emissions have a much larger forcing (about 1.0 W m2 over
the Industrial Era) than CH4 concentration increases (about 0.5 W m2)
due to several indirect effects through atmospheric chemistry. In addition, carbon monoxide emissions are virtually certain to cause a positive forcing, while emissions of reactive nitrogen oxides likely cause a
net negative forcing but uncertainties are large. Emissions of ozonedepleting halocarbons very likely cause a net positive forcing as their
direct radiative effect is larger than the impact of the stratospheric
ozone depletion that they induce. Emissions of SO2, organic carbon and
ammonia cause a negative forcing, while emissions of black carbon
lead to positive forcing via aerosolradiation interactions. Note that
mineral dust forcing may include a natural component or a climate
feedback effect. {7.3, 7.5.2, 8.5.1}
Although the WMGHGs show a spatially fairly homogeneous forcing,
other agents such as aerosols, ozone and land use changes are highly
heterogeneous spatially. RFari showed maximum negative values over
eastern North America and Europe during the early 20th century, with
large negative values extending to East and Southeast Asia, South
America and central Africa by 1980. Since then, however, the magnitude
has decreased over eastern North America and Europe due to pollution
control, and the peak negative forcing has shifted to South and East
Asia primarily as a result of economic growth and the resulting increase
in emissions in those areas. Total aerosol ERF shows similar behaviour
for locations with maximum negative forcing, but also shows substantial positive forcing over some deserts and the Arctic. In contrast, the
global mean whole atmosphere ozone forcing increased throughout
the 20th century, and has peak positive amplitudes around 15N to
30N but negative values over Antarctica. Negative land use forcing
by albedo changes has been strongest in industrialized and biomass
burning regions. The inhomogeneous nature of these forcings can cause
them to have a substantially larger influence on the hydrologic cycle
than an equivalent global mean homogeneous forcing. {8.3.5, 8.6}
Over the 21st century, anthropogenic RF is projected to increase under
the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; see Box TS.6).
Simple model estimates of the RF resulting from the RCPs, which
include WMGHG emissions spanning a broad range of possible futures,
show anthropogenic RF relative to 1750 increasing to 3.0 to 4.8 W
m2 in 2050, and 2.7 to 8.4 W m2 at 2100. In the near term, the RCPs
are quite similar to one another (and emissions of near-term climate
forcers do not span the literature range of possible futures), with RF
at 2030 ranging only from 2.9 to 3.3 W m2 (additional 2010 to 2030
RF of 0.7 to 1.1 W m2), but they show highly diverging values for the
second half of the 21st century driven largely by CO2. Results based on
Technical Summary
the RCP scenarios suggest only small changes in aerosol ERF between
2000 and 2030, followed by a strong reduction in the aerosols and a
substantial weakening of the negative total aerosol ERF. Nitrate aerosols are an exception to this reduction, with a substantially increased
negative forcing which is a robust feature among the few available
models. The divergence across the RCPs indicates that, although a certain amount of future climate change is already in the system due to
the current radiative imbalance caused by historical emissions and the
long lifetime of some atmospheric forcing agents, societal choices can
still have a very large effect on future RF, and hence on climate change.
{8.2, 8.5.3, 12.3; Figures 8.22, 12.4}
TS.3.7 Climate Feedbacks

Feedbacks will also play an important role in determining future climate change. Indeed, climate change may induce modification in the
water, carbon and other biogeochemical cycles which may reinforce
(positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the expected
Figure TS.7 | Radiative forcing (RF) of climate change during the Industrial Era shown by emitted components from 1750 to 2011. The horizontal bars indicate the overall uncertainty, while the vertical bars are for the individual components (vertical bar lengths proportional to the relative uncertainty, with a total length equal to the bar width for a 50%
uncertainty). Best estimates for the totals and individual components (from left to right) of the response are given in the right column. Values are RF except for the effective radiative
forcing (ERF) due to aerosolcloud interactions (ERFaci) and rapid adjustment associated with the RF due to aerosol-radiation interaction (RFari Rapid Adjust.). Note that the total
RF due to aerosol-radiation interaction (0.35 Wm2) is slightly different from the sum of the RF of the individual components (0.33 Wm2). The total RF due to aerosol-radiation
interaction is the basis for Figure SPM.5. Secondary organic aerosol has not been included since the formation depends on a variety of factors not currently sufficiently quantified.
The ERF of contrails includes contrail induced cirrus. Combining ERFaci 0.45 [1.2 to 0.0] Wm2 and rapid adjustment of ari 0.1 [0.3 to +0.1] Wm2 results in an integrated
component of adjustment due to aerosols of 0.55 [1.33 to 0.06] Wm2. CFCs = chlorofluorocarbons, HCFCs = hydrochlorofluorocarbons, HFCs = hydrofluorocarbons, PFCs =
perfluorocarbons, NMVOC = Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds, BC = black carbon. Further detail regarding the related Figure SPM.5 is given in the TS Supplementary
Material. {Figure 8.17}
57
TS
Technical Summary
TS
temperature increase. Snow and ice albedo feedbacks are known to

be positive. The combined water vapour and lapse rate feedback is
extremely likely to be positive and now fairly well quantified, while
cloud feedbacks continue to have larger uncertainties (see TFE.6). In
addition, the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5
(CMIP5) models consistently estimate a positive carbon-cycle feedback, that is, reduced natural CO2 sinks in response to future climate
change. In particular, carbon-cycle feedbacks in the oceans are positive
in the models. Carbon sinks in tropical land ecosystems are less consistent, and may be susceptible to climate change via processes such
as drought and fire that are sometimes not yet fully represented. A key
update since AR4 is the introduction of nutrient dynamics in some of
the CMIP5 land carbon models, in particular the limitations on plant
growth imposed by nitrogen availability. The net effect of accounting
for the nitrogen cycle is a smaller projected land sink for a given trajectory of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (see TFE.7). {6.4, Box 6.1, 7.2}
Models and ecosystem warming experiments show high agreement
that wetland CH4 emissions will increase per unit area in a warmer
climate, but wetland areal extent may increase or decrease depending
on regional changes in temperature and precipitation affecting wetland hydrology, so that there is low confidence in quantitative projections of wetland CH4 emissions. Reservoirs of carbon in hydrates and
permafrost are very large, and thus could potentially act as very powerful feedbacks. Although poorly constrained, the 21st century global
release of CH4 from hydrates to the atmosphere is likely to be low due
to the under-saturated state of the ocean, long ventilation time of the
ocean and slow propagation of warming through the seafloor. There is
high confidence that release of carbon from thawing permafrost provides a positive feedback, but there is low confidence in quantitative
projections of its strength. {6.4.7}
Aerosol-climate feedbacks occur mainly through changes in the source
strength of natural aerosols or changes in the sink efficiency of natural and anthropogenic aerosols; a limited number of modelling studies
have assessed the magnitude of this feedback to be small with a low
confidence. There is medium confidence for a weak feedback (of uncertain sign) involving dimethylsulphide, cloud condensation nuclei and
cloud albedo due to a weak sensitivity of cloud condensation nuclei
population to changes in dimethylsulphide emissions. {7.3.5}
TS.3.8 Emission Metrics

Different metrics can be used to quantify and communicate the relative
and absolute contributions to climate change of emissions of different
substances, and of emissions from regions/countries or sources/sectors.
Up to AR4, the most common metric has been the Global Warming
Potential (GWP) that integrates RF out to a particular time horizon. This
metric thus accounts for the radiative efficiencies of the various substances, and their lifetimes in the atmosphere, and gives values relative
to those for the reference gas CO2. There is now increasing focus on
the Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), which is based on the
change in GMST at a chosen point in time, again relative to that caused
by the reference gas CO2, and thus accounts for climate response along
with radiative efficiencies and atmospheric lifetimes. Both the GWP
and the GTP use a time horizon (Figure TS.8 top), the choice of which
is subjective and context dependent. In general, GWPs for near-term
58
climate forcers are higher than GTPs due to the equal time weighting
in the integrated forcing used in the GWP. Hence the choice of metric
can greatly affect the relative importance of near-term climate forcers
and WMGHGs, as can the choice of time horizon. Analysis of the impact
of current emissions (1-year pulse of emissions) shows that near-term
climate forcers, such as black carbon, sulphur dioxide or CH4, can have
contributions comparable to that of CO2 for short time horizons (of
either the same or opposite sign), but their impacts become progressively less for longer time horizons over which emissions of CO2 dominate (Figure TS.8 top). {8.7}
A large number of other metrics may be defined down the driver
responseimpact chain. No single metric can accurately compare all
consequences (i.e., responses in climate parameters over time) of different emissions, and a metric that establishes equivalence with regard
to one effect will not give equivalence with regard to other effects. The
choice of metric therefore depends strongly on the particular consequence one wants to evaluate. It is important to note that the metrics
do not define policies or goals, but facilitate analysis and implementation of multi-component policies to meet particular goals. All choices
of metric contain implicit value-related judgements such as type of
effect considered and weighting of effects over time. Whereas GWP
integrates the effects up to a chosen time horizon (i.e., giving equal
weight to all times up to the horizon and zero weight thereafter), the
GTP gives the temperature just for one chosen year with no weight on
years before or after. {8.7}
The GWP and GTP have limitations and suffer from inconsistencies
related to the treatment of indirect effects and feedbacks, for instance,
if climatecarbon feedbacks are included for the reference gas CO2 but
not for the non-CO2 gases. The uncertainty in the GWP increases with
time horizon, and for the 100-year GWP of WMGHGs the uncertainty
can be as large as 40%. Several studies also point out that this metric
is not well suited for policies with a maximum temperature target.
Uncertainties in GTP also increase with time as they arise from the
same factors contributing to GWP uncertainties along with additional
contributions from it being further down the driverresponseimpact
chain and including climate response. The GTP metric is better suited
to target-based policies, but is again not appropriate for every goal.
Updated metric values accounting for changes in knowledge of lifetimes and radiative efficiencies and for climatecarbon feedbacks are
now available. {8.7, Table 8.7, Table 8.A.1, Chapter 8 Supplementary
Material Table 8.SM.16}
With these emission metrics, the climate impact of past or current
emissions attributable to various activities can be assessed. Such activity-based accounting can provide additional policy-relevant information, as these activities are more directly affected by particular societal
choices than overall emissions. A single years worth of emissions (a
pulse) is often used to quantify the impact on future climate. From this
perspective and with the absolute GTP metric used to illustrate the
results, energy and industry have the largest contributions to warming over the next 50 to 100 years (Figure TS.8, bottom). Household
fossil and biofuel, biomass burning and on-road transportation are also
relatively large contributors to warming over these time scales, while
current emissions from sectors that emit large amounts of CH4 (animal
husbandry, waste/landfills and agriculture) are also important over
Technical Summary
emissions from those sectors can lead to opposite global mean temperature responses at short and long time scales. The relative importance of the other sectors depends on the time and perspective chosen.
As with RF or ERF, uncertainties in aerosol impacts are large, and in
particular attribution of aerosolcloud interactions to individual components is poorly constrained. {8.7; Chapter 8 Supplementary Material
Figures 8.SM.9, 8.SM.10}
CO2 equivalent emissions (Pg CO2-eq)
GWP
GTP
10
20
CO2
CH4
N 2O
NOX
CO
SO2
BC
OC
-20
10 yrs
20 yrs
100 yrs
10 yrs
20 yrs
-5
CO2 equivalent emissions (PgC-eq)
shorter time horizons (up to about 20 years). Another useful perspective is to examine the effect of sustained current emissions. Because
emitted substances are removed according to their residence time,
short-lived species remain at nearly constant values while long-lived
gases accumulate in this analysis. In both cases, the sectors that have
the greatest long-term warming impacts (energy and industry) lead
to cooling in the near term (primarily due to SO2 emissions), and thus
TS
100 yrs
Temperature impact (10-3 K)
10
Waste/landfill
Biomass burning
Agricultural waste burning
Agriculture
Animal husbandry
Household fossil & biofuel
Shipping
Non-road
Road
Aviation
Industry
Energy
-10
-20
10
20
30
40
Time Horizon (yr)
50
60
Figure TS.8 | (Upper) Global anthropogenic present-day emissions weighted by the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and the Global Temperature change Potential (GTP) for the
chosen time horizons. Year 2008 (single-year pulse) emissions weighted by GWP, which is the global mean radiative forcing (RF) per unit mass emitted integrated over the indicated
number of years relative to the forcing from CO2 emissions, and GTP which estimates the impact on global mean temperature based on the temporal evolution of both RF and climate response per unit mass emitted relative to the impact of CO2 emissions. The units are CO2 equivalents, which reflects equivalence only in the impact parameter of the chosen
metric (integrated RF over the chosen time horizon for GWP; temperature change at the chosen point in time for GTP), given as Pg(CO2)eq (left axis) and PgCeq (right axis). (Bottom)
The Absolute GTP (AGTP) as a function of time multiplied by the present-day emissions of all compounds from the indicated sectors is used to estimate global mean temperature
response (AGTP is the same as GTP, except is not normalized by the impact of CO2 emissions). There is little change in the relative values for the sectors over the 60 to 100-year
time horizon. The effects of aerosolcloud interactions and contrail-induced cirrus are not included in the upper panel. {Figures 8.32, 8.33}
59
Technical Summary
TS.4
Understanding the Climate System and

Its Recent Changes
TS.4.1 Introduction
TS
Understanding of the climate system results from combining observations, theoretical studies of feedback processes and model simulations. Compared to AR4, more detailed observations and improved
climate models (see Box TS.4) now enable the attribution of detected
changes to human influences in more climate system components.
The consistency of observed and modelled changes across the climate
system, including in regional temperatures, the water cycle, global
energy budget, cryosphere and oceans (including ocean acidification),
points to global climate change resulting primarily from anthropogenic
increases in WMGHG concentrations. {10}
TS.4.2 Surface Temperature

Several advances since the AR4 have allowed a more robust quantification of human influence on surface temperature changes. Observational
uncertainty has been explored much more thoroughly than previously
and the assessment now considers observations from the first decade
of the 21st century and simulations from a new generation of climate
models whose ability to simulate historical climate has improved in
many respects relative to the previous generation of models considered in AR4. Observed GMST anomalies relative to 18801919 in recent
years lie well outside the range of GMST anomalies in CMIP5 simulations with natural forcing only, but are consistent with the ensemble
of CMIP5 simulations including both anthropogenic and natural forcing (Figure TS.9) even though some individual models overestimate
the warming trend, while others underestimate it. Simulations with
WMGHG changes only, and no aerosol changes, generally exhibit stronger warming than has been observed (Figure TS.9). Observed temperature trends over the period 19512010, which are characterized by
warming over most of the globe with the most intense warming over
the NH continents, are, at most observed locations, consistent with the
temperature trends in CMIP5 simulations including anthropogenic and
natural forcings and inconsistent with the temperature trends in CMIP5
simulations including natural forcings only. A number of studies have
investigated the effects of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)
on GMST. Although some studies find a significant role for the AMO
in driving multi-decadal variability in GMST, the AMO exhibited little
trend over the period 19512010 on which the current assessments are
based, and the AMO is assessed with high confidence to have made
little contribution to the GMST trend between 1951 and 2010 (considerably less than 0.1C). {2.4, 9.8.1, 10.3; FAQ 9.1}
It is extremely likely that human activities caused more than half of the
observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to
2010. This assessment is supported by robust evidence from multiple
studies using different methods. In particular, the temperature trend
attributable to all anthropogenic forcings combined can be more closely constrained in multi-signal detection and attribution analyses. Uncertainties in forcings and in climate models responses to those forcings,
together with difficulty in distinguishing the patterns of temperature
response due to WMGHGs and other anthropogenic forcings, prevent
as precise a quantification of the temperature changes a ttributable to
60
Figure TS.9 | Three observational estimates of global mean surface temperature (black
lines) from the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data
set 4 (HadCRUT4), Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis
(GISTEMP), and Merged LandOcean Surface Temperature Analysis (MLOST), compared to model simulations (CMIP3 models thin blue lines and CMIP5 modelsthin
yellow lines) with anthropogenic and natural forcings (a), natural forcings only (b) and
greenhouse gas forcing only (c). Thick red and blue lines are averages across all available CMIP5 and CMIP3 simulations respectively. All simulated and observed data were
masked using the HadCRUT4 coverage (as this data set has the most restricted spatial
coverage), and global average anomalies are shown with respect to 18801919, where
all data are first calculated as anomalies relative to 19611990 in each grid box. Inset
to (b) shows the three observational data sets distinguished by different colours. {Figure
10.1}
Technical Summary
Box TS.3 | Climate Models and the Hiatus in Global Mean Surface Warming of the Past 15 Years
The observed GMST has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years (Box
TS.3, Figure 1a, c). Depending on the observational data set, the GMST trend over 19982012 is estimated to be around one third to
one half of the trend over 19512012. For example, in HadCRUT4 the trend is 0.04C per decade over 19982012, compared to 0.11C
per decade over 19512012. The reduction in observed GMST trend is most marked in NH winter. Even with this hiatus in GMST trend,
the decade of the 2000s has been the warmest in the instrumental record of GMST. Nevertheless, the occurrence of the hiatus in GMST
trend during the past 15 years raises the two related questions of what has caused it and whether climate models are able to reproduce
it. {2.4.3, 9.4.1; Box 9.2; Table 2.7}
Fifteen-year-long hiatus periods are common in both the observed and CMIP5 historical GMST time series. However, an analysis of the
full suite of CMIP5 historical simulations (augmented for the period 20062012 by RCP4.5 simulations) reveals that 111 out of 114
realizations show a GMST trend over 19982012 that is higher than the entire HadCRUT4 trend ensemble (Box TS.3, Figure 1a; CMIP5
ensemble mean trend is 0.21C per decade). This difference between simulated and observed trends could be caused by some combination of (a) internal climate variability, (b) missing or incorrect RF, and (c) model response error. These potential sources of the difference,
which are not mutually exclusive, are assessed below, as is the cause of the observed GMST trend hiatus. {2.4.3, 9.3.2, 9.4.1; Box 9.2}
TS
Internal Climate Variability

Hiatus periods of 10 to 15 years can arise as a manifestation of internal decadal climate variability, which sometimes enhances and
sometimes counteracts the long-term externally forced trend. Internal variability thus diminishes the relevance of trends over periods
as short as 10 to 15 years for long-term climate change. Furthermore, the timing of internal decadal climate variability is not expected
to be matched by the CMIP5 historical simulations, owing to the predictability horizon of at most 10 to 20 years (CMIP5 historical
simulations are typically started around nominally 1850 from a control run). However, climate models exhibit individual decades of
GMST trend hiatus even during a prolonged phase of energy uptake of the climate system, in which case the energy budget would be
balanced by increasing subsurfaceocean heat uptake. {2.4.3, 9.3.2, 11.2.2; Boxes 2.2, 9.2}
Owing to sampling limitations, it is uncertain whether an increase in the rate of subsurfaceocean heat uptake occurred during the past
15 years. However, it is very likely that the climate system, including the ocean below 700 m depth, has continued to accumulate energy
over the period 19982010. Consistent with this energy accumulation, GMSL has continued to rise during 19982012, at a rate only
slightly and insignificantly lower than during 19932012. The consistency between observed heat content and sea level changes yields
high confidence in the assessment of continued ocean energy accumulation, which is in turn consistent with the positive radiative
imbalance of the climate system. By contrast, there is limited evidence that the hiatus in GMST trend has been accompanied by a slower
rate of increase in ocean heat content over the depth range 0 to 700 m, when comparing the period 20032010 against 19712010.
There is low agreement on this slowdown, as three of five analyses show a slowdown in the rate of increase while the other two show
the increase continuing unabated. {3.2.3, 3.2.4, 3.7, 8.5.1, 13.3; Boxes 3.1, 13.1}
During the 15-year period beginning in 1998, the ensemble of HadCRUT4 GMST trends lies below almost all model-simulated trends
(Box TS.3, Figure 1a), whereas during the 15-year period ending in 1998, it lies above 93 out of 114 modelled trends (Box TS.3, Figure
1b; HadCRUT4 ensemble mean trend 0.26C per decade, CMIP5 ensemble mean trend 0.16C per decade). Over the 62-year period
19512012, observed and CMIP5 ensemble mean trend agree to within 0.02C per decade (Box TS.3, Figure 1c; CMIP5 ensemble mean
trend 0.13C per decade). There is hence very high confidence that the CMIP5 models show long-term GMST trends consistent with
observations, despite the disagreement over the most recent 15-year period. Due to internal climate variability, in any given 15-year
period the observed GMST trend sometimes lies near one end of a model ensemble, an effect that is pronounced in Box TS.3, Figure 1a,
b as GMST was influenced by a very strong El Nio event in 1998. {Box 9.2}
Unlike the CMIP5 historical simulations referred to above, some CMIP5 predictions were initialized from the observed climate state
during the late 1990s and the early 21st century. There is medium evidence that these initialized predictions show a GMST lower by about
0.05C to 0.1C compared to the historical (uninitialized) simulations and maintain this lower GMST during the first few years of the simulation. In some initialized models this lower GMST occurs in part because they correctly simulate a shift, around 2000, from a positive to
a negative phase of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). However, the improvement of this phasing of the IPO through initialization
is not universal across the CMIP5 predictions. Moreover, although part of the GMST reduction through initialization indeed results from
initializing at the correct phase of internal variability, another part may result from correcting a model bias that was caused by incorrect
past forcing or incorrect model response to past forcing, especially in the ocean. The relative magnitudes of these effects are at present
unknown; moreover, the quality of a forecasting system cannot be evaluated from a single prediction (here, a 10-year prediction within
61
Technical Summary
Box TS.3 (continued)
the period 19982012). Overall, there is medium confidence that initialization leads to simulations of GMST during 19982012 that are
more consistent with the observed trend hiatus than are the uninitialized CMIP5 historical simulations, and that the hiatus is in part a
consequence of internal variability that is predictable on the multi-year time scale. {11.1, 11.2.3; Boxes 2.5, 9.2, 11.1, 11.2}
Radiative Forcing
On decadal to interdecadal time scales and under continually increasing ERF, the forced component of the GMST trend responds to the
ERF trend relatively rapidly and almost linearly (medium confidence). The expected forced-response GMST trend is related to the ERF
trend by a factor that has been estimated for the 1% per year CO2 increases in the CMIP5 ensemble as 2.0 [1.3 to 2.7] W m2 C1 (90%
uncertainty range). Hence, an ERF trend can be approximately converted to a forced-response GMST trend, permitting an assessment
of how much of the change in the GMST trends shown in Box TS.3, Figure 1 is due to a change in ERF trend. {Box 9.2}
The AR5 best-estimate ERF trend over 19982011 is 0.22 [0.10 to 0.34] W m2 per decade (90% uncertainty range), which is substantially lower than the trend over 19841998 (0.32 [0.22 to 0.42] W m2 per decade; note that there was a strong volcanic eruption in
1982) and the trend over 19512011 (0.31 [0.19 to 0.40] W m2 per decade; Box TS.3, Figure 1df; the end year 2011 is chosen because
data availability is more limited than for GMST). The resulting forced-response GMST trend would approximately be 0.12 [0.05 to 0.29]
C per decade, 0.19 [0.09 to 0.39] C per decade, and 0.18 [0.08 to 0.37] C per decade for the periods 19982011, 19841998, and
19512011, respectively (the uncertainty ranges assume that the range of the conversion factor to GMST trend and the range of ERF
trend itself are independent). The AR5 best-estimate ERF forcing trend difference between 19982011 and 19512011 thus might
explain about one-half (0.05 C per decade) of the observed GMST trend difference between these periods (0.06 to 0.08 C per decade,
depending on observational data set). {8.5.2}
TS
The reduction in AR5 best-estimate ERF trend over 19982011 compared to both 19841998 and 19512011 is mostly due to decreasing trends in the natural forcings, 0.16 [0.27 to 0.06] W m2 per decade over 19982011 compared to 0.01 [0.00 to +0.01] W m2
per decade over 19512011. Solar forcing went from a relative maximum in 2000 to a relative minimum in 2009, with a peak-to-peak
difference of around 0.15 W m2 and a linear trend over 19982011 of around 0.10 W m2 per decade. Furthermore, a series of small
volcanic eruptions has increased the observed stratospheric aerosol loading after 2000, leading to an additional negative ERF lineartrend contribution of around 0.06 W m2 per decade over 19982011 (Box TS.3, Figure 1d, f). By contrast, satellite-derived estimates
of tropospheric aerosol optical depth suggests little overall trend in global mean aerosol optical depth over the last 10 years, implying
little change in ERF due to aerosolradiative interaction (low confidence because of low confidence in aerosol optical depth trend
itself). Moreover, because there is only low confidence in estimates of ERF due to aerosolcloud interaction, there is likewise low confidence in its trend over the last 15 years. {2.2.3, 8.4.2, 8.5.1, 8.5.2, 10.3.1; Box 10.2; Table 8.5}
For the periods 19841998 and 19512011, the CMIP5 ensemble mean ERF trend deviates from the AR5 best-estimate ERF trend by
only 0.01 W m2 per decade (Box TS.3, Figure 1e, f). After 1998, however, some contributions to a decreasing ERF trend are missing in
the CMIP5 models, such as the increasing stratospheric aerosol loading after 2000 and the unusually low solar minimum in 2009. Nonetheless, over 19982011 the CMIP5 ensemble mean ERF trend is lower than the AR5 best-estimate ERF trend by 0.03 W m2 per decade
(Box TS.3, Figure 1d). Furthermore, global mean aerosol optical depth in the CMIP5 models shows little trend over 19982012, similar
to the observations. Although the forcing uncertainties are substantial, there are no apparent incorrect or missing global mean forcings
in the CMIP5 models over the last 15 years that could explain the modelobservations difference during the warming hiatus. {9.4.6}
Model Response Error
The discrepancy between simulated and observed GMST trends during 19982012 could be explained in part by a tendency for some
CMIP5 models to simulate stronger warming in response to increases in greenhouse-gas concentration than is consistent with observations. Averaged over the ensembles of models assessed in Section 10.3.1, the best-estimate GHG and other anthropogenic scaling
factors are less than one (though not significantly so, Figure 10.4), indicating that the model-mean GHG and other anthropogenic responses should be scaled down to best match observations. This finding provides evidence that some CMIP5 models show a larger response to
GHGs and other anthropogenic factors (dominated by the effects of aerosols) than the real world (medium confidence). As a consequence,
it is argued in Chapter 11 that near-term model projections of GMST increase should be scaled down by about 10%. This downward scaling is, however, not sufficient to explain the model mean overestimate of GMST trend over the hiatus period. {10.3.1, 11.3.6}
Another possible source of model error is the poor representation of water vapour in the upper atmosphere. It has been suggested that
a reduction in stratospheric water vapour after 2000 caused a reduction in downward longwave radiation and hence a surface-cooling
contribution, possibly missed by the models. However, this effect is assessed here to be small, because there was a recovery in stratospheric water vapour after 2005. {2.2.2, 9.4.1; Box 9.2} (continued on next page)
62
Technical Summary
In summary, the observed recent warming hiatus, defined as the reduction in GMST trend during 19982012 as compared to the trend
during 19512012, is attributable in roughly equal measure to a cooling contribution from internal variability and a reduced trend in
external forcing (expert judgement, medium confidence). The forcing trend reduction is due primarily to a negative forcing trend from
both volcanic eruptions and the downward phase of the solar cycle. However, there is low confidence in quantifying the role of forcing
trend in causing the hiatus, because of uncertainty in the magnitude of the volcanic forcing trend and low confidence in the aerosol
forcing trend. {Box 9.2}
Almost all CMIP5 historical simulations do not reproduce the observed recent warming hiatus. There is medium confidence that the GMST
trend difference between models and observations during 19982012 is to a substantial degree caused by internal variability, with possible contributions from forcing error and some CMIP5 models overestimating the response to increasing GHG forcing. The CMIP5 model
trend in ERF shows no apparent bias against the AR5 best estimate over 19982012. However, confidence in this assessment of CMIP5
ERF trend is low, primarily because of the uncertainties in model aerosol forcing and processes, which through spatial heterogeneity
might well cause an undetected global mean ERF trend error even in the absence of a trend in the global mean aerosol loading. {Box 9.2}
TS
The causes of both the observed GMST trend hiatus and of the modelobservation GMST trend difference during 19982012 imply
that, barring a major volcanic eruption, most 15-year GMST trends in the near-term future will be larger than during 19982012 (high
confidence; see Section 11.3.6 for a full assessment of near-term projections of GMST). The reasons for this implication are fourfold:
first, anthropogenic GHG concentrations are expected to rise further in all RCP scenarios; second, anthropogenic aerosol concentration
is expected to decline in all RCP scenarios, and so is the resulting cooling effect; third, the trend in solar forcing is expected to be larger
over most near-term 15-year periods than over 19982012 (medium confidence), because 19982012 contained the full downward
phase of the solar cycle; and fourth, it is more likely than not that internal climate variability in the near term will enhance and not
counteract the surface warming expected to arise from the increasing anthropogenic forcing. {Box 9.2}
Normalized density
1998-2012
(b)
1984-1998
(c)
1951-2012
HadCRUT4
CMIP5
4
2
0
5
Normalized density
(a)
0.0
(d)
0.2
0.4
(C per decade)
1998-2011
0.6
0.0
(e)
0.2
0.4
(C per decade)
1984-1998
0.6
0.0
(f)
0.2
0.4
(C per decade)
0.6
1951-2011
4
3
2
1
0
-0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9

(W m-2 per decade)
-0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9

(W m-2 per decade)
-0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9

(W m-2 per decade)
Box TS.3, Figure 1 | (Top) Observed and simulated GMST trends in C per decade, over the periods 19982012 (a), 19841998 (b), and 19512012 (c). For the
observations, 100 realizations of the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set 4 (HadCRUT4) ensemble are shown (red, hatched). The
uncertainty displayed by the ensemble width is that of the statistical construction of the global average only, in contrast to the trend uncertainties quoted in Section
2.4.3, which include an estimate of internal climate variability. Here, by contrast, internal variability is characterized through the width of the model ensemble. For the
models, all 114 available CMIP5 historical realizations are shown, extended after 2005 with the RCP4.5 scenario and through 2012 (grey, shaded). (Bottom) Trends
in effective radiative forcing (ERF, in W m2 per decade) over the periods 19982011 (d), 19841998 (e), and 19512011 (f). The figure shows AR5 best-estimate ERF
trends (red, hatched) and CMIP5 ERF (grey, shaded). Black lines are smoothed versions of the histograms. Each histogram is normalized so that its area sums up to one.
{2.4.3, 8.5.2; Box 9.2; Figure 8.18; Box 9.2, Figure 1}
63
Technical Summary
TFE.3 | Comparing Projections from Previous IPCC Assessments with Observations

Verification of projections is arguably the most convincing way of establishing the credibility of climate change
science. Results of projected changes in carbon dioxide (CO2), global mean surface temperature (GMST) and global
mean sea level (GMSL) from previous IPCC assessment reports are quantitatively compared with the best available
observational estimates. The comparison between the four previous reports highlights the evolution in our understanding of how the climate system responds to changes in both natural and anthropogenic forcing and provides
an assessment of how the projections compare with observational estimates. TFE.3, Figure 1, for example, shows the
projected and observed estimates of: (1) CO2 changes (top row), (2) GMST anomaly relative to 19611990 (middle
row) and (3) GMSL relative to 19611990 (bottom row). Results from previous assessment reports are in the lefthand column, and for completeness results from current assessment are given in the right-hand column. {2.4, 3.7,
6.3, 11.3, 13.3} (continued on next page)
TS
SAR TAR
AR4
FAR
CO2 concentration
(ppm)
500
Observations
475
TAR
AR4
A1B A2
FAR SAR
B1
450
425
350
325
325
Temperature anomaly (C)

w.r.t. 19611990
1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035
A1B
A2
FAR
AR4 CMIP3
TAR
Observations
B1
2
1.5
SAR
1
0.5
35
30
Global mean
sea level rise (cm)
}
}
1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035
AR4
0.5
0.5
25
20
RCP
RCP 4.5 RCP
6.0
2.6
450
375
350
475
400
375
1.5
RCP
8.5
Observations
425
400
500
0.5
1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035
Estimates derived
from tide-gauge data
FAR
Estimates derived from

sea-surface altimetry
15
35
SAR
Post-AR4
TAR
B1
A1B
A2
30
25
20
AR5 CMIP5
Indicative
likely
range
Observations
1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035
Estimates derived
from tide-gauge data
Estimates derived from

sea-surface altimetry
RCP RCP RCP RCP

2.6 4.5 6.0 8.5
15
10
10
1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035

Year
}
}
1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035

Year
TFE.3, Figure 1 | (Top left) Observed globally and annually averaged CO2 concentrations in parts per million (ppm) since 1950 compared with projections from the
previous IPCC assessments. Observed global annual CO2 concentrations are shown in dark blue. The shading shows the largest model projected range of global annual
CO2 concentrations from 1950 to 2035 from FAR (First Assessment Report; Figure A.3 in the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of IPCC 1990), SAR (Second Assessment
Report; Figure 5b in the TS of IPCC 1996), TAR (Third Assessment Report; Appendix II of IPCC 2001), and for the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2,
A1B and B1 scenarios presented in the AR4 (Fourth Assessment Report; Figure 10.26). The publication years of the assessment reports are shown. (Top right) Same
observed globally averaged CO2 concentrations and the projections from this report. Only RCP8.5 has a range of values because the emission-driven senarios were
carried out only for this RCP. For the other RCPs the best estimate is given. (Middle left) Estimated changes in the observed globally and annually averaged surface
temperature anomaly relative to 19611990 (in C) since 1950 compared with the range of projections from the previous IPCC assessments. Values are harmonized
64
Technical Summary
TFE.3 (continued)
to start from the same value at 1990. Observed global annual temperature anomaly, relative to 19611990, from three data sets is shown as squares and smoothed
time series as solid lines from the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set 4 (HadCRUT4; bright green), Merged LandOcean Surface
Temperature Analysis (MLOST; warm mustard) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP; dark blue) data sets. The coloured
shading shows the projected range of global annual mean near surface temperature change from 1990 to 2035 for models used in FAR (Figure 6.11), SAR (Figure 19 in
the TS of IPCC 1996), TAR (full range of TAR, Figure 9.13(b)). TAR results are based on the simple climate model analyses presented in this assessment and not on the
individual full three-dimensional climate model simulations. For the AR4 results are presented as single model runs of the CMIP3 ensemble for the historical period from
1950 to 2000 (light grey lines) and for three SRES scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) from 2001 to 2035. For the three SRES scenarios the bars show the CMIP3 ensemble
mean and the likely range given by 40 % to +60% of the mean as assessed in Chapter 10 of AR4. (Middle right) Projections of annual mean global mean surface air
temperature (GMST) for 19502035 (anomalies relative to 19611990) under different RCPs from CMIP5 models (light grey and coloured lines, one ensemble member
per model), and observational estimates the same as the middle left panel. The grey shaded region shows the indicative likely range for annual mean GMST during
the period 20162035 for all RCPs (see Figure TS.14 for more details). The grey bar shows this same indicative likely range for the year 2035. (Bottom left) Estimated
changes in the observed global annual mean sea level (GMSL) since 1950. Different estimates of changes in global annual sea level anomalies from tide gauge data
(dark blue, warm mustard, dark green) and based on annual averages of altimeter data (light blue ) starting in 1993 (the values have been aligned to fit the 1993 value
of the tide gauge data). Squares indicate annual mean values, solid lines smoothed values. The shading shows the largest model projected range of global annual sea
level rise from 1950 to 2035 for FAR (Figures 9.6 and 9.7), SAR (Figure 21 in TS of IPCC, 1996), TAR (Appendix II of IPCC, 2001) and based on the CMIP3 model results
available at the time of AR4 using the SRES A1B scenario. Note that in the AR4 no full range was given for the sea level projections for this period. Therefore, the figure
shows results that have been published subsequent to the AR4. The bars at the right hand side of each graph show the full range given for 2035 for each assessment
report. (Bottom right) Same observational estimate as bottom left. The bars are the likely ranges (medium confidence) for global mean sea level rise at 2035 with respect
to 19611990 following the four RCPs. Appendix 1.A provides details on the data and calculations used to create these figures. See Chapters 1, 11 and 13 for more
details. {Figures 1.4, 1.5, 1.10, 11.9, 11.19, 11.25, 13.11}
TS
Carbon Dioxide Changes

From 1950 to 2011 the observed concentrations of atmospheric CO2 have steadily increased. Considering the period
19902011, the observed CO2 concentration changes lie within the envelope of the scenarios used in the four
assessment reports. As the most recent assessment prior to the current, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)
(TFE.3.Figure 1; top left) has the narrowest scenario range and the observed concentration follows this range. The
results from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (TFE.3, Figure 1; top right) are consistent with AR4, and during
20022011, atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased at a rate of 1.9 to 2.1 ppm yr1. {2.2.1, 6.3; Table 6.1}
Global Mean Temperature Anomaly
Relative to the 19611990 mean, the GMST anomaly has been positive and larger than 0.25C since 2001. Observations are generally well within the range of the extent of the earlier IPCC projections (TFE.3, Figure1, middle left)
This is also true for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) results (TFE.3, Figure 1; middle
right) in the sense that the observed record lies within the range of the model projections, but on the lower end of
the plume. Mt Pinatubo erupted in 1991 (see FAQ 11.2 for discussion of how volcanoes impact the climate system),
leading to a brief period of relative global mean cooling during the early 1990s. The IPCC First, Second and Third
Assessment Reports (FAR, SAR and TAR) did not include the effects of volcanic eruptions and thus failed to include
the cooling associated with the Pinatubo eruption. AR4 and AR5, however, did include the effects from volcanoes
and did simulate successfully the associated cooling. During 19952000 the global mean temperature anomaly was
quite variablea significant fraction of this variability was due to the large El Nio in 19971998 and the strong
back-to-back La Nias in 19992001. The projections associated with these assessment reports do not attempt to
capture the actual evolution of these El Nio and La Nia events, but include them as a source of uncertainty due
to natural variability as encompassed by, for example, the range given by the individual CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations and projection (TFE.3, Figure 1). The grey wedge in TFE.3, Figure 1 (middle right) corresponds to the indicative
likely range for annual temperatures, which is determined from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
assessed value for the 20-year mean 20162035 (see discussion of Figure TS.14 and Section 11.3.6 for details). From
1998 to 2012 the observational estimates have largely been on the low end of the range given by the scenarios
alone in previous assessment reports and CMIP3 and CMIP5 projections. {2.4; Box 9.2}
Based on both tide gauge and satellite altimetry data, relative to 19611990, the GMSL has continued to rise. While
the increase is fairly steady, both observational records show short periods of either no change or a slight decrease.
The observed estimates lie within the envelope of all the projections except perhaps in the very early 1990s. The
sea level rise uncertainty due to scenario-related uncertainty is smallest for the most recent assessments (AR4 and
AR5) and observed estimates lie well within this scenario-related uncertainty. It is virtually certain that over the 20th
century sea level rose. The mean rate of sea level increase was 1.7 mm yr1 with a very likely range between 1.5 to
1.9 between 1901 and 2010 and this rate increased to 3.2 with a likely range of 2.8 to 3.6 mm yr1 between 1993
and 2010 (see TFE.2). {3.7.2, 3.7.4}
65
Technical Summary
observed warming differs from those associated with internal variability. Based on this evidence, the contribution of internal variability to
the 19512010 GMST trend was assessed to be likely between 0.1C
and 0.1C, and it is virtually certain that warming since 1951 cannot be
explained by internal variability alone. {9.5, 10.3, 10.7}
The instrumental record shows a pronounced warming during the first
half of the 20th century. Consistent with AR4, it is assessed that the
early 20th century warming is very unlikely to be due to internal variability alone. It remains difficult to quantify the contributions to this
early century warming from internal variability, natural forcing and
anthropogenic forcing, due to forcing and response uncertainties and
incomplete observational coverage. {10.3}
TS
TS.4.3 Atmospheric Temperature

Figure TS.10 | Assessed likely ranges (whiskers) and their midpoints (bars) for warming
trends over the 19512010 period due to well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHG), anthropogenic forcings (ANT) anthropogenic forcings other than well-mixed greenhouse gases
(OA), natural forcings (NAT) and internal variability. The trend in the Hadley Centre/
Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set 4 (HadCRUT4) observations is shown in black with its 5 to 95% uncertainty range due only to observational
uncertainty in this record. {Figure 10.5}
WMGHGs and other anthropogenic forcings individually. Consistent

with AR4, it is assessed that more than half of the observed increase
in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 is very likely
due to the observed anthropogenic increase in WMGHG concentrations. WMGHGs contributed a global mean surface warming likely
to be between 0.5C and 1.3C over the period between 1951 and
2010, with the contributions from other anthropogenic forcings likely
to be between 0.6C and 0.1C and from natural forcings likely to be
between 0.1C and 0.1C. Together these assessed contributions are
consistent with the observed warming of approximately 0.6C over
this period (Figure TS.10). {10.3}
Solar forcing is the only known natural forcing acting to warm the
climate over the 19512010 period but it has increased much less
than WMGHG forcing, and the observed pattern of long-term tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling is not consistent with the
expected response to solar irradiance variations. Considering this
evidence together with the assessed contribution of natural forcings
to observed trends over this period, it is assessed that the contribution from solar forcing to the observed global warming since 1951
is extremely unlikely to be larger than that from WMGHGs. Because
solar forcing has very likely decreased over a period with direct satellite measurements of solar output from 1986 to 2008, there is high
confidence that changes in total solar irradiance have not contributed
to global warming during that period. However, there is medium confidence that the 11-year cycle of solar variability influences decadal
climate fluctuations in some regions through amplifying mechanisms.
{8.4, 10.3; Box 10.2}
Observed warming over the past 60 years is far outside the range of
internal climate variability estimated from pre-instrumental data, and it
is also far outside the range of internal variability simulated in climate
models. Model-based simulations of internal variability are assessed to
be adequate to make this assessment. Further, the spatial pattern of
66
A number of studies since the AR4 have investigated the consistency of

simulated and observed trends in free tropospheric temperatures (see
section TS.2). Most, though not all, CMIP3 and CMIP5 models overestimate the observed warming trend in the tropical troposphere during
the satellite period 19792012. Roughly one half to two thirds of this
difference from the observed trend is due to an overestimate of the
SST trend, which is propagated upward because models attempt to
maintain static stability. There is low confidence in these assessments,
however, owing to the low confidence in observed tropical tropospheric trend rates and vertical structure. Outside the tropics, and over the
period of the radiosonde record beginning in 1961, the discrepancy
between simulated and observed trends is smaller. {2.4.4, 9.4, 10.3}
Analysis of both radiosonde and satellite data sets, combined with
CMIP5 and CMIP3 simulations, continues to find that observed tropospheric warming is inconsistent with internal variability and simulations of the response to natural forcings alone. Over the period
19612010 CMIP5 models simulate tropospheric warming driven
by WMGHG changes, with only a small offsetting cooling due to the
combined effects of changes in reflecting and absorbing aerosols and
tropospheric ozone. Taking this evidence together with the results of
multi-signal detection and attribution analyses, it is likely that anthropogenic forcings, dominated by WMGHGs, have contributed to the
warming of the troposphere since 1961. Uncertainties in radiosonde
and satellite records makes assessment of causes of observed trends in
the upper troposphere less confident than an assessment of the overall
atmospheric temperature changes. {2.4.4, 9.4, 10.3}
CMIP5 simulations including WMGHGs, ozone and natural forcing
changes broadly reproduce the observed evolution of lower stratospheric temperature, with some tendency to underestimate the
observed cooling trend over the satellite era (see Section TS.2). New
studies of stratospheric temperature, considering the responses to natural forcings, WMGHGs and ozone-depleting substances, demonstrate
that it is very likely that anthropogenic forcings, dominated by the
depletion of the ozone layer due to ozone depleting substances have
contributed to the cooling of the lower stratosphere since 1979. CMIP5
models simulate only a very weak cooling of the lower stratosphere in
response to historical WMGHG changes, and the influence of WMGHGs
on lower stratospheric temperature has not been formally detected.
Considering both regions together, it is very likely that anthropogenic
Technical Summary
TFE.4 | The Changing Energy Budget of the Global Climate System

The global energy budget is a fundamental aspect of the Earths climate system and depends on many phenomena
within it. The ocean has stored about 93% of the increase in energy in the climate system over recent decades,
resulting in ocean thermal expansion and hence sea level rise. The rate of storage of energy in the Earth system
must be equal to the net downward radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere, which is the difference between
effective radiative forcing (ERF) due to changes imposed on the system and the radiative response of the system.
There are also significant transfers of energy between components of the climate system and from one location to
another. The focus here is on the Earths global energy budget since 1970, when better global observational data
coverage is available. {3.7, 9.4, 13.4; Box 3.1}
The ERF of the climate system has been positive as a result of increases in well-mixed (long-lived) greenhouse gas
(GHG) concentrations, changes in short-lived GHGs (tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and stratospheric water
vapour), and an increase in solar irradiance (TFE.4, Figure 1a). This has been partly compensated by a negative
contribution to the ERF of the climate system as a result of changes in tropospheric aerosol, which predominantly
reflect sunlight and furthermore enhance the brightness of clouds, although black carbon produces positive forcing. Explosive volcanic eruptions (such as El Chichn in Mexico in 1982 and Mt Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991)
TS
Year
Year
TFE.4, Figure 1 | The Earths energy budget from 1970 through 2011. (a) The cumulative energy inflow into the Earth system from changes in well-mixed and shortlived greenhouse gases, solar forcing, tropospheric aerosol forcing, volcanic forcing and changes in surface albedo due to land use change (all relative to 18601879)
are shown by the coloured lines; these contributions are added to give the total energy inflow (black; contributions from black carbon on snow and contrails as well
as contrail-induced cirrus are included but not shown separately). (b) The cumulative total energy inflow from (a, black) is balanced by the sum of the energy uptake
of the Earth system (blue; energy absorbed in warming the ocean, the atmosphere and the land, as well as in the melting of ice) and an increase in outgoing radiation
inferred from changes in the global mean surface temperature. The sum of these two terms is given for a climate feedback parameter of 2.47, 1.23 and 0.82 W m2
C1, corresponding to an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.5C, 3.0C and 4.5C, respectively; 1.5C to 4.5C is assessed to be the likely range of equilibrium climate
sensitivity. The energy budget would be closed for a particular value of a if the corresponding line coincided with the total energy inflow. For clarity, all uncertainties
(shading) shown are likely ranges. {Box 12.2; Box 13.1, Figure 1}
67
Technical Summary
TFE.4 (continued)
can inject sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere, giving rise to stratospheric aerosol, which persists for several years.
Stratospheric aerosol reflects some of the incoming solar radiation and thus gives a negative forcing. Changes in
surface albedo from land use change have also led to a greater reflection of shortwave radiation back to space and
hence a negative forcing. Since 1970, the net ERF of the climate system has increased, and the integrated impact of
these forcings is an energy inflow over this period (TFE.4, Figure 1a). {2.3, 8.5; Box 13.1}
As the climate system warms, energy is lost to space through increased outgoing radiation. This radiative response
by the system is due predominantly to increased thermal radiation, but it is modified by climate feedbacks such as
changes in water vapour, clouds and surface albedo, which affect both outgoing longwave and reflected shortwave
radiation. The top of the atmosphere fluxes have been measured by the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE)
satellites from 1985 to 1999 and the Cloud and the Earths Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellites from March
2000 to the present. The top of the atmosphere radiative flux measurements are highly precise, allowing identification of changes in the Earths net energy budget from year to year within the ERBE and CERES missions, but the
absolute calibration of the instruments is not sufficiently accurate to allow determination of the absolute top of
the atmosphere energy flux or to provide continuity across missions. TFE.4, Figure 1b relates the cumulative total
energy change of the Earth system to the change in energy storage and the cumulative outgoing radiation. Calculation of the latter is based on the observed global mean surface temperature multiplied by the climate feedback
parameter , which in turn is related to the equilibrium climate sensitivity. The mid-range value for , 1.23 W m2
C1, corresponds to an ERF for a doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration of 3.7 [2.96 to 4.44] W m2 combined
with an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.0C. The climate feedback parameter is likely to be in the range from
0.82 to 2.47 W m2 C1 (corresponding to the likely range in equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.5C to 4.5C). {9.7.1;
Box 12.2}
TS
If ERF were fixed, the climate system would eventually warm sufficiently that the radiative response would balance
the ERF, and there would be no further change in energy storage in the climate system. However, the forcing is
increasing, and the oceans large heat capacity means that the climate system is not in radiative equilibrium and
its energy content is increasing (TFE.4, Figure 1b). This storage provides strong evidence of a changing climate. The
majority of this additional heat is in the upper 700 m of the ocean, but there is also warming in the deep and abyssal ocean. The associated thermal expansion of the ocean has contributed about 40% of the observed sea level rise
since 1970. A small amount of additional heat has been used to warm the continents, warm and melt glacial and
sea ice and warm the atmosphere. {13.4.2; Boxes 3.1, 13.1}
In addition to these forced variations in the Earths energy budget, there is also internal variability on decadal time
scales. Observations and models indicate that, because of the comparatively small heat capacity of the atmosphere,
a decade of steady or even decreasing surface temperature can occur in a warming world. Climate model simulations suggest that these periods are associated with a transfer of heat from the upper to the deeper ocean, of the
order 0.1 W m2, with a near-steady or an increased radiation to space, again of the order 0.1 W m2. Although these
natural fluctuations represent a large amount of heat, they are significantly smaller than the anthropogenic forcing
of the Earths energy budget, particularly on time scales of several decades or longer. {9.4; Boxes 9.2, 13.1}
The available independent estimates of ERF, of observed heat storage, and of surface warming combine to give
an energy budget for the Earth that is consistent with the assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity to within estimated uncertainties (high confidence). Quantification of the terms in the Earths energy budget
and verification that these terms balance over recent decades provides strong evidence for our understanding of
anthropogenic climate change. {Box 13.1}
forcing, particularly WMGHGs and stratospheric ozone depletion, has

led to a detectable observed pattern of tropospheric warming and
lower stratospheric cooling since 1961. {2.4, 9.4, 10.3}
TS.4.4 Oceans
The observed upper-ocean warming during the late 20th and early 21st
centuries and its causes have been assessed more completely since
68
AR4 using updated observations and more simulations (see Section

TS.2.2). The long term trends and variability in the observations are
most consistent with simulations of the response to both anthropogenic forcing and volcanic forcing. The anthropogenic fingerprint in
observed upper-ocean warming, consisting of global mean and basinscale pattern changes, has also been detected. This result is robust to
a number of observational, model and methodological or structural
uncertainties. It is very likely that anthropogenic forcings have made
a substantial contribution to upper ocean warming (above 700 m)

observed since the 1970s. This anthropogenic ocean warming has
contributed to global sea level rise over this period through thermal
expansion. {3.2.2, 3.2.3, 3.7.2, 10.4.1, 10.4.3; Box 3.1}
Observed surface salinity changes also suggest a change in the global
water cycle has occurred (see TFE.1). The long-term trends show that
there is a strong positive correlation between the mean climate of the
surface salinity and the temporal changes of surface salinity from 1950
to 2000. This correlation shows an enhancement of the climatological
salinity patternso fresh areas have become fresher and salty areas
saltier. The strongest anthropogenic signals are in the tropics (30S to
30N) and the Western Pacific. The salinity contrast between the Pacific
and Atlantic Oceans has also increased with significant contributions
from anthropogenic forcing. {3.3, 10.3.2, 10.4.2; FAQ 3.2}
On a global scale, surface and subsurface salinity changes (19552004)
over the upper 250 m of the water column do not match changes
expected from natural variability but do match the modelled distribution of forced changes (WMGHGs and tropospheric aerosols). Natural
external variability taken from the simulations with just the variations
in solar and volcanic forcing does not match the observations at all,
thus excluding the hypothesis that observed trends can be explained
by just solar or volcanic variations. These lines of evidence and our
understanding of the physical processes leads to the conclusion that
it is very likely that anthropogenic forcings have made a discernible
contribution to surface and subsurface oceanic salinity changes since
the 1960s. {10.4.2; Table 10.1}
Oxygen is an important physical and biological tracer in the ocean.
Global analyses of oxygen data from the 1960s to 1990s extend the
spatial coverage from local to global scales and have been used in
attribution studies with output from a limited range of Earth System
Models (ESMs). It is concluded that there is medium confidence that
the observed global pattern of decrease in dissolved oxygen in the
oceans can be attributed in part to human influences. {3.8.3, 10.4.4;
Table 10.1}
The observations show distinct trends for ocean acidification (which is
observed to be between 0.0014 and 0.0024 pH units per year). There
is high confidence that the pH of ocean surface seawater decreased by
about 0.1 since the beginning of the industrial era as a consequence
of the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2. {3.8.2, 10.4.4; Box 3.2;
Table 10.1}
Technical Summary
The anthropogenic signal is also detectable for individual months from

May to December, suggesting that human influence, strongest in late
summer, now also extends into colder seasons. From these simulations
of sea ice and observed sea ice extent from the instrumental record
with high agreement between studies, it is concluded that anthropogenic forcings are very likely to have contributed to Arctic sea ice loss
since 1979 (Figure TS.12). {10.5.1}
For Antarctic sea ice extent, the shortness of the observed record and
differences in simulated and observed variability preclude an assessment of whether or not the observed increase since 1979 is inconsistent with internal variability. Untangling the processes involved with
trends and variability in Antarctica and surrounding waters remains
complex and several studies are contradictory. In conclusion, there is
low confidence in the scientific understanding of the observed increase
in Antarctic sea ice extent since 1979, due to the large differences
between sea ice simulations from CMIP5 models and to the incomplete and competing scientific explanations for the causes of change
and low confidence in estimates of internal variability (Figure TS.12).
{9.4.3, 10.5.1; Table 10.1}
The Greenland ice sheet shows recent major melting episodes in
response to record temperatures relative to the 20th century associated with persistent shifts in early summer atmospheric circulation,
and these shifts have become more pronounced since 2007. Although
many Greenland instrumental records are relatively short (two
decades), regional modelling and observations tell a consistent story of
the response of Greenland temperatures and ice sheet runoff to shifts
in regional atmospheric circulation associated with larger scale flow
patterns and global temperature increases. Mass loss and melt is also
occurring in Greenland through the intrusion of warm water into the
major fjords containing glaciers such as Jacobshaven Glacier. It is likely
that anthropogenic forcing has contributed to surface melting of the
Greenland ice sheet since 1993. {10.5.2; Table 10.1}
Estimates of ice mass in Antarctica since 2000 show that the greatest losses are at the edges. An analysis of observations underneath a
floating ice shelf off West Antarctica leads to the conclusion that ocean
warming in this region and increased transport of heat by ocean circulation are largely responsible for accelerating melt rates. The observational record of Antarctic mass loss is short and the internal variability
of the ice sheet is poorly understood. Due to a low level of scientific
understanding there is low confidence in attributing the causes of the
observed loss of mass from the Antarctic ice sheet since 1993. {3.2,
4.2, 4.4.3, 10.5.2}
TS.4.5 Cryosphere
The reductions in Arctic sea ice extent and NH snow cover extent and
widespread glacier retreat and increased surface melt of Greenland
are all evidence of systematic changes in the cryosphere. All of these
changes in the cryosphere have been linked to anthropogenic forcings.
{4.2.2, 4.44.6, 10.5.1, 10.5.3; Table 10.1}
Attribution studies, comparing the seasonal evolution of Arctic sea
ice extent from observations from the 1950s with that simulated by
coupled model simulations, demonstrate that human influence on the
sea ice extent changes can be robustly detected since the early 1990s.
The evidence for the retreat of glaciers due to warming and moisture
change is now more complete than at the time of AR4. There is high
confidence in the estimates of observed mass loss and the estimates of
natural variations and internal variability from long-term glacier records.
Based on these factors and our understanding of glacier response to climatic drivers there is high confidence that a substantial part of the mass
loss of glaciers is likely due to human influence. It is likely that there has
been an anthropogenic component to observed reductions in NH snow
cover since 1970. {4.3.3, 10.5.2, 10.5.3; Table 10.1}
69
TS
Technical Summary
TFE.5 | Irreversibility and Abrupt Change

A number of components or phenomena within the climate system have been proposed as potentially exhibiting
threshold behaviour. Crossing such thresholds can lead to an abrupt or irreversible transition into a different state
of the climate system or some of its components.
Abrupt climate change is defined in this IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) as a large-scale change in the climate
system that takes place over a few decades or less, persists (or is anticipated to persist) for at least a few decades
and causes substantial disruptions in human and natural systems. There is information on potential consequences
of some abrupt changes, but in general there is low confidence and little consensus on the likelihood of such events
over the 21st century. Examples of components susceptible to such abrupt change are the strength of the Atlantic
Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), clathrate methane release, tropical and boreal forest dieback, disappearance of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, long-term drought and monsoonal circulation. {5.7, 6.4.7, 12.5.5;
Table 12.4}
TS
A change is said to be irreversible if the recovery time scale from this state due to natural processes is significantly
longer than the time it takes for the system to reach this perturbed state. Such behaviour may arise because the
time scales for perturbations and recovery processes are different, or because climate change may persist due to
the long residence time of a carbon dioxide (CO2) perturbation in the atmosphere (see TFE.8). Whereas changes in
Arctic Ocean summer sea ice extent, long-term droughts and monsoonal circulation are assessed to be reversible
within years to decades, tropical or boreal forest dieback may be reversible only within centuries. Changes in clathrate methane and permafrost carbon release, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet collapse may be irreversible during
millennia after the causal perturbation. {5.8, 6.4.7, 12.5.5, 13.4.3, 13.4.4; Table 12.4}
Abrupt Climate Change Linked with AMOC
New transient climate model simulations have confirmed with high confidence that strong changes in the strength
of the AMOC produce abrupt climate changes at global scale with magnitude and pattern resembling past glacial
DansgaardOeschger events and Heinrich stadials. Confidence in the link between changes in North Atlantic climate and low-latitude precipitation has increased since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). From new paleoclimate reconstructions and modelling studies, there is very high confidence that a reduced strength of the AMOC
and the associated surface cooling in the North Atlantic region caused southward shifts of the Atlantic Intertropical
Convergence Zone and affected the American (north and south), African and Asian monsoons. {5.7}
The interglacial mode of the AMOC can recover (high confidence) from a short-lived freshwater input into the subpolar North Atlantic. Approximately 8.2 ka, a sudden freshwater release occurred during the final stages of North
America ice sheet melting. Paleoclimate observations and model results indicate, with high confidence, a marked
reduction in the strength of the AMOC followed by a rapid recovery, within approximately 200 years after the
perturbation. {5.8.2}
Although many more model simulations have been conducted since AR4 under a wide range of future forcing
scenarios, projections of the AMOC behaviour have not changed. It remains very likely that the AMOC will weaken
over the 21st century relative to 1850-1900 values. Best estimates and ranges for the reduction from the Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are 11% (1 to 24%) for the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and 34% (12 to 54%) for RCP8.5, but there is low confidence on the magnitude of weakening. It also
remains very unlikely that the AMOC will undergo an abrupt transition or collapse in the 21st century for the scenarios considered (high confidence) (TFE.5, Figure 1). For an abrupt transition of the AMOC to occur, the sensitivity
of the AMOC to forcing would have to be far greater than seen in current models, or would require meltwater
flux from the Greenland ice sheet greatly exceeding even the highest of current projections. Although neither possibility can be excluded entirely, it is unlikely that the AMOC will collapse beyond the end of the 21st century for
the scenarios considered, but a collapse beyond the 21st century for large sustained warming cannot be excluded.
There is low confidence in assessing the evolution of AMOC beyond the 21st century because of limited number of
analyses and equivocal results. {12.4.7, 12.5.5}
Potential Irreversibility of Changes in Permafrost, Methane Clathrates and Forests
In a warming climate, permafrost thawing may induce decomposition of carbon accumulated in frozen soils which
could persist for hundreds to thousands of years, leading to an increase of atmospheric CO2 and/or methane (CH4)
70
Technical Summary
TFE.5 (continued)
TS
TFE.5, Figure 1 | Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength at 30N (Sv) as a function of year, from 1850 to 2300 as simulated by different AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Models in response to scenario RCP2.6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right). The vertical black bar shows the range of AMOC strength measured
at 26N, from 2004 to 2011 {Figures 3.11, 12.35}
concentrations. The existing modelling studies of permafrost carbon balance under future warming that take into
account at least some of the essential permafrost-related processes do not yield consistent results, beyond the fact
that present-day permafrost will become a net emitter of carbon during the 21st century under plausible future
warming scenarios (low confidence). This also reflects an insufficient understanding of the relevant soil processes
during and after permafrost thaw, including processes leading to stabilization of unfrozen soil carbon, and precludes any quantitative assessment of the amplitude of irreversible changes in the climate system potentially related to permafrost degassing and associated feedbacks. {6.4.7, 12.5.5}
Anthropogenic warming will very likely lead to enhanced CH4 emissions from both terrestrial and oceanic clathrates.
Deposits of CH4 clathrates below the sea floor are susceptible to destabilization via ocean warming. However, sea
level rise due to changes in ocean mass enhances clathrate stability in the ocean. While difficult to formally assess,
initial estimates of the 21st century feedback from CH4 clathrate destabilization are small but not insignificant. It is
very unlikely that CH4 from clathrates will undergo catastrophic release during the 21st century (high confidence).
On multi-millennial time scales, such CH4 emissions may provide a positive feedback to anthropogenic warming and
may be irreversible, due to the diffference between release and accumulation time scales. {6.4.7, 12.5.5}
The existence of critical climate change driven dieback thresholds in the Amazonian and other tropical rainforests
purely driven by climate change remains highly uncertain. The possibility of a critical threshold being crossed in
precipitation volume and duration of dry seasons cannot be ruled out. The response of boreal forest to projected
climate change is also highly uncertain, and the existence of critical thresholds cannot at present be ruled out. There
is low confidence in projections of the collapse of large areas of tropical and/or boreal forests. {12.5.5}
Potential Irreversibility of Changes in the Cryosphere
The reversibility of sea ice loss has been directly assessed in sensitivity studies to CO2 increase and decrease with
AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs). None of them show evidence of an irreversible change in Arctic sea ice at any point. By contrast, as a result of the strong coupling between
surface and deep waters in the Southern Ocean, the Antarctic sea ice in some models integrated with ramp-up and
ramp-down atmospheric CO2 concentration exhibits some hysteresis behaviour. {12.5.5}
At present, both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have a positive surface mass balance (snowfall exceeds
melting), although both are losing mass because ice outflow into the sea exceeds the net surface mass balance. A
positive feedback operates to reduce ice sheet volume and extent when a decrease of the surface elevation of the
ice sheet induces a decreased surface mass balance. This arises generally through increased surface melting, and
therefore applies in the 21st century to Greenland, but not to Antarctica, where surface melting is currently very
small. Surface melting in Antarctica is projected to become important after several centuries under high well-mixed
greenhouse gas radiative forcing scenarios. {4.4, 13.4.4; Boxes 5.2, 13.2}
Abrupt change in ice sheet outflow to the sea may be caused by unstable retreat of the grounding line in regions
where the bedrock is below sea level and slopes downwards towards the interior of the ice sheet. This mainly

71
Technical Summary
TFE.5 (continued)
applies to West Antarctica, but also to parts of East Antarctica and Greenland. Grounding line retreat can be triggered by ice shelf decay, due to warmer ocean water under ice shelves enhancing submarine ice shelf melt, or melt
water ponds on the surface of the ice shelf promoting ice shelf fracture. Because ice sheet growth is a slow process,
such changes would be irreversible in the definition adopted here. {4.4.5; Box 13.2}
There is high confidence that the volumes of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets were reduced during
periods of the past few million years that were globally warmer than present. Ice sheet model simulations and geological data suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet is very sensitive to subsurface ocean warming and imply with
medium confidence a West Antarctic ice sheet retreat if atmospheric CO2 concentration stays within, or above, the
range of 350450 ppm for several millennia. {5.8.1, 13.4.4; Box 13.2}
The available evidence indicates that global warming beyond a threshold would lead to the near-complete loss of
the Greenland ice sheet over a millennium or longer, causing a global mean sea level rise of approximately 7 m.
Studies with fixed present-day ice sheet topography indicate that the threshold is greater than 2C but less than 4C
(medium confidence) of global mean surface temperature rise above pre-industrial. The one study with a dynamical
ice sheet suggests the threshold is greater than about 1C (low confidence) global mean warming with respect to
pre-industrial. Considering the present state of scientific uncertainty, a likely range cannot be quantified. The complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet is not inevitable because this would take a millennium or more; if temperatures
decline before the ice sheet has completely vanished, the ice sheet might regrow. However, some part of the mass
loss might be irreversible, depending on the duration and degree of exceedance of the threshold, because the ice
sheet may have multiple steady states, due to its interaction with regional climate. {13.4.3, 13.4.4}
TS
TS.4.6 Water Cycle
TS.4.7 Climate Extremes
Since the AR4, new evidence has emerged of a detectable human influence on several aspects of the water cycle. There is medium confidence
that observed changes in near-surface specific humidity since 1973
contain a detectable anthropogenic component. The anthropogenic
water vapour fingerprint simulated by an ensemble of climate models
has been detected in lower tropospheric moisture content estimates
derived from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data covering
the period 19882006. An anthropogenic contribution to increases in
tropospheric specific humidity is found with medium confidence. {2.5,
10.3}
Several new attribution studies have found a detectable anthropogenic influence in the observed increased frequency of warm days and
nights and decreased frequency of cold days and nights. Since the AR4
and SREX, there is new evidence for detection of human influence on
extremely warm daytime temperature and there is new evidence that
the influence of anthropogenic forcing may be detected separately
from the influence of natural forcing at global scales and in some continental and sub-continental regions. This strengthens the conclusions
from both AR4 and SREX, and it is now very likely that anthropogenic
forcing has contributed to the observed changes in the frequency and
intensity of daily temperature extremes on the global scale since the
mid-20th century. It is likely that human influence has significantly
increased the probability of occurrence of heat waves in some locations. See TFE.9 and TFE.9, Table 1 for a summary of the assessment of
extreme weather and climate events. {10.6}
Attribution studies of global zonal mean terrestrial precipitation and

Arctic precipitation both find a detectable anthropogenic influence.
Overall there is medium confidence in a significant human influence
on global scale changes in precipitation patterns, including increases
in NH mid-to-high latitudes. Remaining observational and modelling
uncertainties and the large effect of internal variability on observed
precipitation preclude a more confident assessment. {2.5, 7.6, 10.3}
Based on the collected evidence for attributable changes (with varying
levels of confidence and likelihood) in specific humidity, terrestrial precipitation and ocean surface salinity through its connection to precipitation and evaporation, and from physical understanding of the water
cycle, it is likely that human influence has affected the global water
cycle since 1960. This is a major advance since AR4. {2.4, 2.5, 3.3, 9.4.1,
10.3, 10.4.2; Table 10.1; FAQ 3.2}
72
Since the AR4, there is some new limited direct evidence for an anthropogenic influence on extreme precipitation, including a formal detection and attribution study and indirect evidence that extreme precipitation would be expected to have increased given the evidence of
anthropogenic influence on various aspects of the global hydrological
cycle and high confidence that the intensity of extreme precipitation
events will increase with warming, at a rate well exceeding that of the
mean precipitation. In land regions where observational coverage is
sufficient for assessment, there is medium confidence that anthropogenic forcing has contributed to a global-scale intensification of heavy
precipitation over the second half of the 20th century. {7.6, 10.6}
Although the AR4 concluded that it is more likely than not that anthropogenic influence has contributed to an increased risk of drought in the
second half of the 20th century, an updated assessment of the observational evidence indicates that the AR4 conclusions regarding global
increasing trends in hydrological droughts since the 1970s are no longer
supported. Owing to the low confidence in observed large-scale trends
in dryness combined with difficulties in distinguishing decadal-scale
variability in drought from long-term climate change, there is now low
confidence in the attribution of changes in drought over global land
since the mid-20th century to human influence. {2.6, 10.6}
TS.4.8 From Global to Regional

Taking a longer term perspective shows the substantial role played by
external forcings in driving climate variability on hemispheric scales in
pre-industrial times (Box TS.5). It is very unlikely that NH temperature
variations from 1400 to 1850 can be explained by internal variability
alone. There is medium confidence that external forcing contributed to
NH temperature variability from 850 to 1400 and that external forcing
contributed to European temperature variations over the last 5 centuries. {5.3.3, 5.5.1, 10.7.2, 10.7.5; Table 10.1}
Changes in atmospheric circulation are important for local climate
change because they could lead to greater or smaller changes in climate in a particular region than elsewhere. It is likely that human influence has altered sea level pressure patterns globally. There is medium
confidence that stratospheric ozone depletion has contributed to the
observed poleward shift of the southern Hadley Cell border during austral summer. It is likely that stratospheric ozone depletion has contributed to the positive trend in the SAM seen in austral summer since the
mid-20th century which corresponds to sea level pressure reductions
over the high latitudes and increase in the subtropics (Figure TS.11).
{10.3}
The evidence is stronger that observed changes in the climate system
can now be attributed to human activities on global and regional scales
in many components (Figure TS.12). Observational uncertainty has been
explored much more thoroughly than previously, and fingerprints of
human influence have been deduced from a new generation of climate
models. There is improved understanding of ocean changes, including
salinity changes, that are consistent with large scale intensification of
the water cycle predicted by climate models. The changes in near surface temperatures, free atmosphere temperatures, ocean temperatures
and NH snow cover and sea ice extent, when taken together, show not
just global mean changes, but also distinctive regional patterns consistent with the expected fingerprints of change from anthropogenic
forcings and the expected responses from volcanic eruptions (Figure
TS.12). {10.310.6, 10.9}
Human influence has been detected in nearly all of the major assessed
components of the climate system (Figure TS.12). Taken together, the
combined evidence increases the overall level of confidence in the
attribution of observed climate change, and reduces the uncertainties
associated with assessment based on a single climate variable. From
this combined evidence it is virtually certain that human influence has
warmed the global climate system. Anthropogenic influence has been
identified in changes in temperature near the surface of the Earth, in
the atmosphere and in the oceans, as well as in changes in the cryosphere, the water cycle and some extremes. There is strong evidence
that excludes solar forcing, volcanoes and internal variability as the
strongest drivers of warming since 1950. {10.9; Table 10.1; FAQ 5.1}
Over every continent except Antarctica, anthropogenic influence has
likely made a substantial contribution to surface temperature increases since the mid-20th century (Figure TS.12). It is likely that there has
been a significant anthropogenic contribution to the very substantial
warming in Arctic land surface temperatures over the past 50 years.
For Antarctica large observational uncertainties result in low confidence
that anthropogenic influence has contributed to observed warming
averaged over available stations. Detection and attribution at regional
SAM trend (hPa per decade)
Globally, there is low confidence in attribution of changes in tropical

cyclone activity to human influence. This is due to insufficient observational evidence, lack of physical understanding of the links between
anthropogenic drivers of climate and tropical cyclone activity, and the
low level of agreement between studies as to the relative importance
of internal variability, and anthropogenic and natural forcings. In the
North Atlantic region there is medium confidence that a reduction in
aerosol forcing over the North Atlantic has contributed at least in part
to the observed increase in tropical cyclone activity there since the
1970s. There remains substantial disagreement on the relative importance of internal variability, WMGHG forcing and aerosols for this
observed trend. {2.6, 10.6, 14.6}
Technical Summary
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
MAM
JJA
SON
Season
historical
historicalGHG
historicalAer
historicalOz
historicalNat
DJF
control
HadSLP2
20CR
Figure TS.11 | Simulated and observed 19512011 trends in the Southern Annular
Mode (SAM) index by season. The SAM index is a difference between zonal mean sea
level pressure (SLP) at 40S and 65S. The SAM index is defined without normalization, so that the magnitudes of simulated and observed trends can be compared. Black
lines show observed trends from the Hadley Centre Sea Level Pressure 2r (HadSLP2r)
data set (solid), and the 20th Century Reanalysis (dotted). Grey bars show 5th to 95th
percentile ranges of control trends, and red boxes show the 5th to 95th percentile
range of trends in historical simulations including anthropogenic and natural forcings.
Coloured bars show ensemble mean trends and their associated 5 to 95% confidence
ranges simulated in response to well-mixed greenhouse gas (light green), aerosol (dark
green), ozone (magenta) and natural forcing changes (blue) in CMIP5 individual-forcing
simulations. {Figure 10.13b}
73
TS
Technical Summary
scales is complicated by the greater role played by dynamical factors

(circulation changes), a greater range of forcings that may be regionally
important, and the greater difficulty of modelling relevant processes at
regional scales. Nevertheless, human influence has likely contributed to
temperature increases in many sub-continental regions. {10.3; Box 5.1}
The coherence of observed changes with simulations of anthropogenic
and natural forcing in the physical system is remarkable (Figure TS.12),
particularly for temperature-related variables. Surface temperature and
ocean heat content show emerging anthropogenic and natural signals

in both records, and a clear separation from the alternative hypothesis
of just natural variations. These signals do not appear just in the global
means, but also appear at regional scales on continents and in ocean
basins in each of these variables. Sea ice extent emerges clearly from
the range of internal variability for the Arctic. At sub-continental scales
human influence is likely to have substantially increased the probability of occurrence of heat waves in some locations. {Table 10.1}
TS
Global averages
Ocean surface
Observations
Land surface
Land and ocean surface
Ocean heat content
Models using only natural forcings

Models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings
Figure TS.12 | Comparison of observed and simulated change in the climate system, at regional scales (top panels) and global scales (bottom four panels). Brown panels are land
surface temperature time series, blue panels are ocean heat content time series and white panels are sea ice time series (decadal averages). Each panel shows observations (black
or black and shades of grey), and the 5 to 95% range of the simulated response to natural forcings (blue shading) and natural and anthropogenic forcings (pink shading), together
with the corresponding ensemble means (dark blue and dark red respectively). The observed surface temperature is from the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface
temperature data set 4 (HadCRUT4). Three observed records of ocean heat content (OHC) are shown. Sea ice anomalies (rather than absolute values) are plotted and based on
models in Figure 10.16. The observations lines are either solid or dashed and indicate the quality of the observations and estimates. For land and ocean surface temperatures panels
and precipitation panels, solid observation lines indicate where spatial coverage of areas being examined is above 50% coverage and dashed observation lines where coverage is
below 50%. For example, data coverage of Antarctica never goes above 50% of the land area of the continent. For ocean heat content and sea ice panels the solid observations line
is where the coverage of data is good and higher in quality, and the dashed line is where the data coverage is only adequate. This figure is based on Figure 10.21 except presented
as decadal averages rather than yearly averages. Further detail regarding the related Figure SPM.6 is given in the TS Supplementary Material. {Figure 10.21}
74
Technical Summary
Box TS.4 | Model Evaluation

Climate models have continued to be improved since the AR4, and many models have been extended into Earth System Models (ESMs)
by including the representation of biogeochemical cycles important to climate change. Box TS.4, Figure 1 provides a partial overview of
model capabilities as assessed in this report, including improvements or lack thereof relative to models that were assessed in the AR4
or that were available at the time of the AR4. {9.1, 9.8.1; Box 9.1}
The ability of climate models to simulate surface temperature has improved in many, though not all, important aspects relative to the
generation of models assessed in the AR4. There continues to be very high confidence that models reproduce the observed large-scale
time-mean surface temperature patterns (pattern correlation of about 0.99), although systematic errors of several degrees Celsius are
found in some regions. There is high confidence that on the regional scale (sub-continental and smaller), time-mean surface temperature is better simulated than at the time of the AR4; however, confidence in model capability is lower than for the large scale. Models
are able to reproduce the magnitude of the observed global mean or northern-hemisphere-mean temperature variability on interannual
to centennial time scales. Models are also able to reproduce the large-scale patterns of temperature during the Last Glacial Maximum
indicating an ability to simulate a climate state much different from the present (see also Box TS.5). {9.4.1, 9.6.1}
TS
There is very high confidence that models reproduce the general features of the global and annual mean surface temperature changes
over the historical period, including the warming in the second half of the 20th century and the cooling immediately following large
volcanic eruptions. Most simulations of the historical period do not reproduce the observed reduction in global mean surface warming
trend over the last 10 to 15 years (see Box TS.3). There is medium confidence that the trend difference between models and observations during 19982012 is to a substantial degree caused by internal variability, with possible contributions from forcing inadequacies
in models and some models overestimating the response to increasing greenhouse gas forcing. Most, though not all, models overestimate the observed warming trend in the tropical troposphere over the last 30 years, and tend to underestimate the long-term lowerstratospheric cooling trend. {9.4.1; Box 9.2}
The simulation of large-scale patterns of precipitation has improved somewhat since the AR4, although models continue to perform
less well for precipitation than for surface temperature. The spatial pattern correlation between modelled and observed annual mean
precipitation has increased from 0.77 for models available at the time of the AR4 to 0.82 for current models. At regional scales, precipitation is not simulated as well, and the assessment remains difficult owing to observational uncertainties. {9.4.1, 9.6.1}
Many models are able to reproduce the observed changes in upper-ocean heat content from 1961 to 2005. The time series of the multimodel mean falls within the range of the available observational estimates for most of the period. {9.4.2}
There is robust evidence that the downward trend in Arctic summer sea ice extent is better simulated than at the time of the AR4. About
one quarter of the models show a trend as strong as, or stronger, than the trend in observations over the satellite era 19792012.
Most models simulate a small decreasing trend in Antarctic sea ice extent, albeit with large inter-model spread, in contrast to the small
increasing trend in observations. {9.4.3}
There has been substantial progress since the AR4 in the assessment of model simulations of extreme events. Changes in the frequency
of extreme warm and cold days and nights over the second half of the 20th century are consistent between models and observations,
with the ensemble mean global mean time series generally falling within the range of observational estimates. The majority of models
underestimate the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature variability or trends, especially in the tropics. {9.5.4}
In the majority of the models that include an interactive carbon cycle, the simulated global land and ocean carbon sinks over the latter
part of the 20th century fall within the range of observational estimates. However, models systematically underestimate the NH land
sink implied by atmospheric inversion techniques. {9.4.5}
Regional downscaling methods provide climate information at the smaller scales needed for many climate impact studies. There is high
confidence that downscaling adds value both in regions with highly variable topography and for various small-scale phenomena. {9.6.4}
The model spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity ranges from 2.1C to 4.7C and is very similar to the assessment in the AR4. There
is very high confidence that the primary factor contributing to the spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity continues to be the cloud
feedback. This applies to both the modern climate and the last glacial maximum. There is likewise very high confidence that, consistent with observations, models show a strong positive correlation between tropospheric temperature and water vapour on regional
to global scales, implying a positive water vapour feedback in both models and observations. {5.3.3, 9.4.1, 9.7} (continued on next page)
75
Technical Summary
Climate models are based on physical principles, and they reproduce many important elements of observed climate. Both aspects
contribute to our confidence in the models suitability for their application in detection and attribution studies (see Chapter 10) and for
quantitative future predictions and projections (see Chapters 11 to 14). There is increasing evidence that some elements of observed
variability or trends are well correlated with inter-model differences in model projections for quantities such as Arctic summer sea ice
trends, the snowalbedo feedback, and the carbon loss from tropical land. However, there is still no universal strategy for transferring
a models past performance to a relative weight of this model in a multi-model-ensemble mean of climate projections. {9.8.3}
(a) Trends
ArctSIE
TAS
Hurric -hr
High
High
fgCO2
(b) Extremes
TAS_ext
Very low
AntSIE
Low
Medium
Confidence in assessment
High
Very high
Medium
TTT
OHC
TotalO3
TC-hr
PR_ext
TAS_ext -t
Low
LST
Model performance
Medium
NBP
Low
Model performance
TS
TC
Doughts
Very low
Low
Medium
Confidence in assessment
PR_ext -hr
PR_ext -t
High
Very high
Degradation since the AR4

No change since the AR4
Improvement since the AR4
Not assessed in the AR4
Box TS.4, Figure1 | Summary of how well the current-generation climate models simulate important features of the climate of the 20th century. Confidence in the
assessment increases towards the right as suggested by the increasing strength of shading. Model quality increases from bottom to top. The colour coding indicates
improvements from the models available at the time of the AR4 to the current assessment. There have been a number of improvements since the AR4, and some some
modelled quantities are not better simulated. The major climate quantities are listed in this summary and none shows degradation. The assessment is based mostly on
the multi-model mean, not excluding that deviations for individual models could exist. Assessed model quality is simplified for representation in this figure; details of
each assessment are found in Chapter 9. {9.8.1; Figure 9.44}
The figure highlights the following key features, with the sections that back up the assessment added in brackets:
(a) Trends in:
AntSIE
ArctSIE
fgCO2
LST
NBP
OHC
TotalO3
TAS
TTT
Antarctic sea ice extent {9.4.3}

Arctic sea ice extent {9.4.3}
Global ocean carbon sink {9.4.5}
Lower-stratospheric temperature {9.4.1.}
Global land carbon sink {9.4.5}
Global ocean heat content {9.4.2}
Total-column ozone {9.4.1}
Surface air temperature {9.4.1}
Tropical tropospheric temperature {9.4.1}
(b) Extremes:
Droughts
Hurric-hr
PR_ext
PR_ext-hr
PR_ext-t
TAS_ext
TAS_ext-t
TC
TC-hr
76
Droughts {9.5.4}
Year-to-year count of Atlantic hurricanes in high-resolution AGCMs {9.5.4}
Global distribution of precipitation extremes {9.5.4}
Global distribution of precipitation extremes in high-resolution AGCMs {9.5.4}
Global trends in precipitation extremes {9.5.4}
Global distributions of surface air temperature extremes {9.5.4}
Global trends in surface air temperature extremes {9.5.4}
Tropical cyclone tracks and intensity {9.5.4}
Tropical cyclone tracks and intensity in high-resolution AGCMs {9.5.4}
Technical Summary
Box TS.5 | Paleoclimate

Reconstructions from paleoclimate archives allow current changes in atmospheric composition, sea level and climate (including extreme
events such as droughts and floods), as well as future projections, to be placed in a broader perspective of past climate variability (see
Section TS.2). {5.25.6, 6.2, 10.7}
Past climate information also documents the behaviour of slow components of the climate system including the carbon cycle, ice sheets
and the deep ocean for which instrumental records are short compared to their characteristic time scales of responses to perturbations, thus informing on mechanisms of abrupt and irreversible changes. Together with the knowledge of past external climate forcings,
syntheses of paleoclimate data have documented polar amplification, characterized by enhanced temperature changes in the Arctic
compared to the global mean, in response to high or low CO2 concentrations. {5.2.1, 5.2.2, 5.6, 5.7, 5.8, 6.2, 8.4.2, 13.2.1, 13.4; Boxes
5.1, 5.2}
Since AR4, the inclusion of paleoclimate simulations in the PMIP3 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project)/CMIP5 framework
has enabled paleoclimate information to be more closely linked with future climate projections. Paleoclimate information for the midHolocene (6 ka), the Last Glacial Maximum (approximately 21 ka), and last millennium has been used to test the ability of models to
simulate realistically the magnitude and large-scale patterns of past changes. Combining information from paleoclimate simulations
and reconstructions enables to quantify the response of the climate system to radiative perturbations, constraints to be placed on the
range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, and past patterns of internal climate variability to be documented on inter-annual to multicentennial scales. {5.3.15.3.5, 5.4, 5.5.1, 9.4.1, 9.4.2, 9.5.3, 9.7.2, 10.7.2, 14.1.2}
TS
Box TS.5, Figure 1 illustrates the comparison between the last millennium Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3
(PMIP3)/CMIP5 simulations and reconstructions, together with the associated solar, volcanic and WMGHG RFs. For average annual NH
temperatures, the period 19832012 was very likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 800 years (high confidence) and likely the
warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence). This is supported by comparison of instrumental temperatures
with multiple reconstructions from a variety of proxy data and statistical methods, and is consistent with AR4. In response to solar,
volcanic and anthropogenic radiative changes, climate models simulate multi-decadal temperature changes in the last 1200 years in
the NH that are generally consistent in magnitude and timing with reconstructions, within their uncertainty ranges. Continental-scale
temperature reconstructions show, with high confidence, multi-decadal periods during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (about 950 to
1250) that were in some regions as warm as the mid-20th century and in others as warm as in the late 20th century. With high confidence, these regional warm periods were not as synchronous across regions as the warming since the mid-20th century. Based on the
comparison between reconstructions and simulations, there is high confidence that not only external orbital, solar and volcanic forcing
but also internal variability contributed substantially to the spatial pattern and timing of surface temperature changes between the
Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age (about 1450 to 1850). However, there is only very low confidence in quantitative estimates of their relative contributions. It is very unlikely that NH temperature variations from 1400 to 1850 can be explained by internal
variability alone. There is medium confidence that external forcing contributed to Northern Hemispheric temperature variability from
850 to 1400 and that external forcing contributed to European temperature variations over the last 5 centuries. {5.3.5, 5.5.1, 10.7.2,
10.7.5; Table 10.1} (continued on next page)
77
Technical Summary
(a) Radiative forcing (W m-2)
Well mixed GHGs
-10
-15
0.1
-20
2.5
0.0
2.0
-0.2
1.5
-0.3
-0.1
TSI
Volcanic
-5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1000
1200
1400
1600
Time (Year CE)
TS
1800
2000
1800
2000
Temp. anomaly wrt 1500 - 1850 (C)
(b) Reconstructed (grey) and simulated (red) NH temperature
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.5
1.5
1.5
2
1000
1200 1400 1600

Time (Year CE)
1800
(e) Europe JJA

1.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1.5
1.5
2
2000
2
1000
1200 1400 1600

Time (Year CE)
1800
2000
Arctic
North
America
Europe
Asia
(d) North America ANN

1.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1.5
1.5
2
1000
1200 1400 1600

Time (Year CE)
1800
(f) Asia JJA

1.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1.5
1.5
2
2
2000
2
1000
1200 1400 1600

Time (Year CE)
1800
2000
Temp. anomaly wrt 18811980 (C)
0.5
1600
1400
Time (Year CE)
(c) Arctic ANN
1.5
1200
1000
-0.5
Box TS.5, Figure 1 | Last-millennium simulations and reconstructions. (a) 8502000 PMIP3/CMIP5 radiative forcing due to volcanic, solar and well-mixed greenhouse gases. Different colours illustrate the two existing data sets for volcanic forcing and four estimates of solar forcing. For solar forcing, solid (dashed) lines stand
for reconstruction variants in which background changes in irradiance are (not) considered; (b) 8502000 PMIP3/CMIP5 simulated (red) and reconstructed (shading)
Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature changes. The thick red line depicts the multi-model mean while the thin red lines show the multi-model 90% range. The
overlap of reconstructed temperatures is shown by grey shading; all data are expressed as anomalies from their 15001850 mean and smoothed with a 30-year filter.
Note that some reconstructions represent a smaller spatial domain than the full NH or a specific season, while annual temperatures for the full NH mean are shown
for the simulations. (c), (d), (e) and (f) Arctic and North America annual mean temperature, and Europe and Asia June, July and August (JJA) temperature, from 950 to
2000 from reconstructions (black line), and PMIP3/CMIP5 simulations (thick red, multi-model mean; thin red, 90% multi-model range). All red curves are expressed
as anomalies from their 15001850 mean and smoothed with a 30-year filter. The shaded envelope depicts the uncertainties from each reconstruction (Arctic: 90%
confidence bands, North American: 2 standard deviation. Asia: 2 root mean square error. Europe: 95% confidence bands). For comparison with instrumental record,
the Climatic Research Unit land station Temperature (CRUTEM4) data set is shown (yellow line). These instrumental data are not necessarily those used in calibration
of the reconstrctions, and thus may show greater or lesser correspondence with the reconstructions than the instrumental data actually used for calibration; cutoff
timing may also lead to end effects for smoothed data shown. All lines are smoothed by applying a 30-year moving average. Map shows the individual regions for each
reconstruction. {5.3.5; Table 5.A.1; Figures 5.1, 5.8, 5.12}
78
Technical Summary
TS.5
Projections of Global and Regional

Climate Change
TS.5.1 Introduction
Projections of changes in the climate system are made using a hierarchy of climate models ranging from simple climate models, to models
of intermediate complexity, to comprehensive climate models, and
Earth System Models (ESMs). These models simulate changes based
on a set of scenarios of anthropogenic forcings. A new set of scenarios,
the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was used for the
new climate model simulations carried out under the framework of
the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) of the
World Climate Research Programme. A large number of comprehensive
climate models and ESMs have participated in CMIP5, whose results
form the core of the climate system projections.
This section summarizes the assessment of these climate change projections. First, future forcing and scenarios are presented. The following
subsections then address various aspects of projections of global and
regional climate change, including near-term (up to about mid-century)
and long-term (end of the 21st century) projections in the atmosphere,
ocean and cryosphere; projections of carbon and other biogeochemical
cycles; projections in sea level change; and finally changes to climate

phenomena and other aspects of regional climate over the 21st century. Projected changes are given relative to the 19862005 average
unless indicated otherwise. Projections of climate change on longer
term and information on climate stabilization and targets are provided
in TFE.8. Methods to counter climate change, termed geoengineering,
have been proposed and an overview is provided in Box TS.7. {11.3,
12.312.5, 13.513.7, 14.114.6, Annex I}
TS.5.2 Future Forcing and Scenarios

In this assessment report a series of new RCPs are used that largely
replace the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) scenarios
(see Box TS.6 and Annex II for Climate System Scenario Tables). They
produce a range of responses from ongoing warming, to approximately
stabilized forcing, to a stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6) that stabilizes and then slowly reduces the RF after mid-21st century. In contrast to the AR4, the climate change from the RCP scenarios in the AR5
is framed as a combination of adaptation and mitigation. Mitigation
actions starting now in the various RCP scenarios do not produce discernibly different climate change outcomes for the next 30 years or
so, whereas long-term climate change after mid-century is appreciably
different across the RCPs. {Box 1.1}
Box TS.6 | The New Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios and Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project Phase 5 Models
Future anthropogenic emissions of GHGs, aerosol particles and other forcing agents such as land use change are dependent on socioeconomic factors, and may be affected by global geopolitical agreements to control those emissions to achieve mitigation. AR4 made
extensive use of the SRES scenarios that do not include additional climate initiatives, which means that no scenarios were available
that explicitly assume implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the emissions
targets of the Kyoto Protocol. However, GHG emissions are directly affected by non-climate change policies designed for a wide range
of other purposes. The SRES scenarios were developed using a sequential approach, that is, socioeconomic factors fed into emissions
scenarios, which were then used in simple climate models to determine concentrations of GHGs, and other agents required to drive the
more complex AOGCMs. In this report, outcomes of climate simulations that use new scenarios (some of which include implied policy
actions to achieve mitigation) referred to as RCPs are assessed. These RCPs represent a larger set of mitigation scenarios and were
selected to have different targets in terms of radiative forcing at 2100 (about 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 W m2; Figure TS.15). The scenarios
should be considered plausible and illustrative, and do not have probabilities attached to them. {12.3.1; Box 1.1}
The RCPs were developed using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that typically include economic, demographic, energy, and
simple climate components. The emission scenarios they produce are then run through a simple model to produce time series of GHG
concentrations that can be run in AOGCMs. The emission time series from the RCPs can then be used directly in ESMs that include
interactive biogeochemistry (at least a land and ocean carbon cycle). {12.3.1; Box 1.1}
The CMIP5 multi-model experiment (coordinated through the World Climate Research Programme) presents an unprecedented level of
information on which to base assessments of climate variability and change. CMIP5 includes new ESMs in addition to AOGCMs, new
model experiments and more diagnostic output. CMIP5 is much more comprehensive than the preceding CMIP3 multi-model experiment that was available at the time of the IPCC AR4. CMIP5 has more than twice as many models, many more experiments (that also
include experiments to address understanding of the responses in the future climate change scenario runs), and nearly 2 1015 bytes
of data (as compared to over 30 1012 bytes of data in CMIP3). A larger number of forcing agents are treated more completely in the
CMIP5 models, with respect to aerosols and land use particularly. Black carbon aerosol is now a commonly included forcing agent.
Considering CO2, both concentrations-driven projections and emissions-driven projections are assessed from CMIP5. These allow
quantification of the physical response uncertainties as well as climatecarbon cycle interactions. {1.5.2}
79
TS
Technical Summary
The assessment of the mean values and ranges of global mean temperature changes in AR4 would not have been substantially different if the CMIP5 models had been used in that report. The differences in global temperature projections can largely be attributed
to the different scenarios. The global mean temperature response simulated by CMIP3 and CMIP5 models is very similar, both in the
mean and the model range, transiently and in equilibrium. The range of temperature change across all scenarios is wider because the
RCPs include a strong mitigation scenario (RCP2.6) that had no equivalent among the SRES scenarios used in CMIP3. For each scenario,
the 5 to 95% range of the CMIP5 projections is obtained by approximating the CMIP5 distributions by a normal distribution with
same mean and standard deviation and assessed as being likely for projections of global temperature change for the end of the 21st
century. Probabilistic projections with simpler models calibrated to span the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity assessed by the
AR4 provide uncertainty ranges that are consistent with those from CMIP5. In AR4 the uncertainties in global temperature projections
were found to be approximately constant when expressed as a fraction of the model mean warming (constant fractional uncertainty).
For the higher RCPs, the uncertainty is now estimated to be smaller than with the AR4 method for long-term climate change, because
the carbon cycleclimate feedbacks are not relevant for the concentration-driven RCP projections (in contrast, the assessed projection
uncertainties of global temperature in AR4 did account of carbon cycleclimate feedbacks, even though these were not part of the
CMIP3 models). When forced with RCP8.5, CO2 emissions, as opposed to the RCP8.5 CO2 concentrations, CMIP5 ESMs with interactive
carbon cycle simulate, on average, a 50 (140 to +210) ppm (CMIP5 model spread) larger atmospheric CO2 concentration and 0.2C
larger global surface temperature increase by 2100. For the low RCPs the fractional uncertainty is larger because internal variability and
non-CO2 forcings make a larger relative contribution to the total uncertainty. {12.4.1, 12.4.8, 12.4.9} (continued on next page)
TS
Temperature scaled by global T (C per C)

CMIP3 : 2080-2099
Precipitation scaled by global T (% per C)

CMIP3 : 2080-2099
CMIP5 : 2081-2100
CMIP5 : 2081-2100
(C per C global mean change)
(% per C global mean change)
Box TS.6, Figure 1 | Patterns of temperature (left column) and percent precipitation change (right column) for the CMIP3 models average (first row) and CMIP5
models average (second row), scaled by the corresponding global average temperature changes. The patterns are computed in both cases by taking the difference
between the averages over the last 20 years of the 21st century experiments (20802099 for CMIP3 and 20812100 for CMIP5) and the last 20 years of the historic
experiments (19801999 for CMIP3, 19862005 for CMIP5) and rescaling each difference by the corresponding change in global average temperature. This is done
first for each individual model, then the results are averaged across models. Stippling indicates a measure of significance of the difference between the two corresponding patterns obtained by a bootstrap exercise. Two subsets of the pooled set of CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensemble members of the same size as the original ensembles, but
without distinguishing CMIP3 from CMIP5 members, were randomly sampled 500 times. For each random sample the corresponding patterns and their difference are
computed, then the true difference is compared, grid-point by grid-point, to the distribution of the bootstrapped differences, and only grid-points at which the value of
the difference falls in the tails of the bootstrapped distribution (less than the 2.5th percentiles or the 97.5th percentiles) are stippled. {Figure 12.41}
80
Technical Summary
There is overall consistency between the projections of temperature and precipitation based on CMIP3 and CMIP5, both for large-scale
patterns and magnitudes of change (Box TS.6, Figure 1). Model agreement and confidence in projections depends on the variable and
on spatial and temporal averaging, with better agreement for larger scales. Confidence is higher for temperature than for those quantities related to the water cycle or atmospheric circulation. Improved methods to quantify and display model robustness have been
developed to indicate where lack of agreement across models on local trends is a result of internal variability, rather than models actually disagreeing on their forced response. Understanding of the sources and means of characterizing uncertainties in long-term large
scale projections of climate change has not changed significantly since AR4, but new experiments and studies have continued to work
towards a more complete and rigorous characterization. {9.7.3, 12.2, 12.4.1, 12.4.4, 12.4.5, 12.4.9; Box 12.1}
The well-established stability of geographical patterns of temperature and precipitation change during a transient experiment remains
valid in the CMIP5 models (Box TS.6, Figure 1). Patterns are similar over time and across scenarios and to first order can be scaled by
the global mean temperature change. There remain limitations to the validity of this technique when it is applied to strong mitigation
scenarios, to scenarios where localized forcings (e.g., aerosols) are significant and vary in time and for variables other than average
seasonal mean temperature and precipitation. {12.4.2}
The range in anthropogenic aerosol emissions across all scenarios has

a larger impact on near-term climate projections than the corresponding range in long-lived GHGs, particularly on regional scales and for
hydrological cycle variables. The RCP scenarios do not span the range
of future aerosol emissions found in the SRES and alternative scenarios
(Box TS.6). {11.3.1, 11.3.6}
TS
and timing of future eruptions is unknown. Except for the 11-year solar
cycle, changes in the total solar irradiance are uncertain. Except where
explicitly indicated, future volcanic eruptions and changes in total solar
irradiance additional to a repeating 11-year solar cycle are not included
in the projections of near- and long-term climate assessed. {8, 11.3.6}
TS.5.3 Quantification of Climate System Response

If rapid reductions in sulphate aerosol are undertaken for improving air
quality or as part of decreasing fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, then there is
medium confidence that this could lead to rapid near-term warming.
There is evidence that accompanying controls on CH4 emissions would
offset some of this sulphate-induced warming, although the cooling from CH4 mitigation will emerge more slowly than the warming
from sulphate mitigation due to the different time scales over which
atmospheric concentrations of these substances decrease in response
to decreases in emissions. Although removal of black carbon aerosol
could also counter warming associated with sulphate removal, uncertainties are too large to constrain the net sign of the global temperature response to black carbon emission reductions, which depends on
reduction of co-emitted (reflective) aerosols and on aerosol indirect
effects. {11.3.6}
Including uncertainties in projecting the chemically reactive GHGs CH4
and N2O from RCP emissions gives a range in abundance pathways
that is likely 30% larger than the range in RCP concentrations used to
force the CMIP5 climate models. Including uncertainties in emission
estimates from agricultural, forest and land use sources, in atmospheric
lifetimes, and in chemical feedbacks, results in a much wider range of
abundances for N2O, CH4 and HFCs and their RF. In the case of CH4,
by year 2100 the likely range of RCP8.5 CH4 abundance extends 520
ppb above the single-valued RCP8.5 CH4 abundance, and RCP2.6 CH4
extends 230 ppb below RCP2.6 CH4. {11.3.5}
Estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) based on

observed climate change, climate models and feedback analysis, as
well as paleoclimate evidence indicate that ECS is positive, likely in
the range 1.5C to 4.5C with high confidence, extremely unlikely less
than 1C (high confidence) and very unlikely greater than 6C (medium
confidence). Earth system sensitivity over millennia time scales including long-term feedbacks not typically included in models could be significantly higher than ECS (see TFE.6 for further details). {5.3.1, 10.8;
Box 12.2}
With high confidence the transient climate response (TCR) is positive,
likely in the range 1C to 2.5C and extremely unlikely greater than
3C, based on observed climate change and climate models (see TFE.6
for further details). {10.8; Box 12.2}
The ratio of GMST change to total cumulative anthropogenic carbon
emissions is relatively constant and independent of the scenario, but is
model dependent, as it is a function of the model cumulative airborne
fraction of carbon and the transient climate response. For any given
temperature target, higher emissions in earlier decades therefore imply
lower emissions by about the same amount later on. The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emission (TCRE) is likely between
0.8C to 2.5C per 1000 PgC (high confidence), for cumulative carbon
emissions less than about 2000 PgC until the time at which temperatures peak (see TFE.8 for further details). {10.8, 12.5.4; Box 12.2}
There is very low confidence in projections of natural forcing. Major

volcanic eruptions cause a negative RF up to several watts per square
metre, with a typical lifetime of one year, but the possible occurrence
81
Technical Summary
TFE.6 | Climate Sensitivity and Feedbacks

The description of climate change as a response to a forcing that is amplified by feedbacks goes back many decades.
The concepts of radiative forcing (RF) and climate feedbacks continue to be refined, and limitations are now better
understood; for instance, feedbacks may be much faster than the surface warming, feedbacks depend on the type of
forcing agent (e.g., greenhouse gas (GHG) vs. solar forcing), or may have intrinsic time scales (associated mainly with
vegetation change and ice sheets) of several centuries to millennia. The analysis of physical feedbacks in models and
from observations remains a powerful framework that provides constraints on transient future warming for different scenarios, on climate sensitivity and, combined with estimates of carbon cycle feedbacks (see TFE.5), determines
the GHG emissions that are compatible with climate stabilization or targets (see TFE.8). {7.1, 9.7.2, 12.5.3; Box 12.2}
The water vapour/lapse rate, albedo and cloud feedbacks are the principal determinants of equilibrium climate
sensitivity. All of these feedbacks are assessed to be positive, but with different levels of likelihood assigned ranging from likely to extremely likely. Therefore, there is high confidence that the net feedback is positive and the
black body response of the climate to a forcing will therefore be amplified. Cloud feedbacks continue to be the
largest uncertainty. The net feedback from water vapour and lapse rate changes together is extremely likely positive and approximately doubles the black body response. The mean value and spread of these two processes in
climate models are essentially unchanged from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), but are now supported
by stronger observational evidence and better process understanding of what determines relative humidity distributions. Clouds respond to climate forcing mechanisms in multiple ways and individual cloud feedbacks can be
positive or negative. Key issues include the representation of both deep and shallow cumulus convection, microphysical processes in ice clouds and partial cloudiness that results from small-scale variations of cloud-producing and
cloud-dissipating processes. New approaches to diagnosing cloud feedback in General Circulation Models (GCMs)
have clarified robust cloud responses, while continuing to implicate low cloud cover as the most important source
of intermodel spread in simulated cloud feedbacks. The net radiative feedback due to all cloud types is likely positive. This conclusion is reached by considering a plausible range for unknown contributions by processes yet to be
accounted for, in addition to those occurring in current climate models. Observations alone do not currently provide a robust, direct constraint, but multiple lines of evidence now indicate positive feedback contributions from
changes in both the height of high clouds and the horizontal distribution of clouds. The additional feedback from
low cloud amount is also positive in most climate models, but that result is not well understood, nor effectively
constrained by observations, so confidence in it is low. {7.2.47.2.6, 9.7.2}
TS
The representation of aerosolcloud processes in climate models continues to be a challenge. Aerosol and cloud
variability at scales significantly smaller than those resolved in climate models, and the subtle responses of clouds to
aerosol at those scales, mean that, for the foreseeable future, climate models will continue to rely on parameterizations of aerosolcloud interactions or other methods that represent subgrid variability. This implies large uncertainties for estimates of the forcings associated with aerosolcloud interactions. {7.4, 7.5.3, 7.5.4}
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are useful metrics summarising the global
climate systems temperature response to an externally imposed RF. ECS is defined as the equilibrium change in
annual mean global mean surface temperature (GMST) following a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide
(CO2) concentration, while TCR is defined as the annual mean GMST change at the time of CO2 doubling following a
linear increase in CO2 forcing over a period of 70 years (see Glossary). Both metrics have a broader application than
these definitions imply: ECS determines the eventual warming in response to stabilisation of atmospheric composition on multi-century time scales, while TCR determines the warming expected at a given time following any steady
increase in forcing over a 50- to 100-year time scale. {Box 12.2; 12.5.3}
ECS and TCR can be estimated from various lines of evidence (TFE.6, Figures 1 and 2). The estimates can be based on
the values of ECS and TCR diagnosed from climate models, or they can be constrained by analysis of feedbacks in
climate models, patterns of mean climate and variability in models compared to observations, temperature fluctuations as reconstructed from paleoclimate archives, observed and modelled short term perturbations of the energy
balance like those caused by volcanic eruptions, and the observed surface and ocean temperature trends since preindustrial. For many applications, the limitations of the forcing-feedback analysis framework and the dependence
of feedbacks on time scales and the climate state must be kept in mind. {5.3.1, 5.3.3, 9.7.19.7.3, 10.8.1, 10.8.2,
12.5.3; Box 5.2; Table 9.5} (continued on next page)
82
Technical Summary
TFE.6 (continued)
Newer studies of constraints on ECS are based on the observed warming since pre-industrial, analysed using simple
and intermediate complexity models, improved statistical methods and several different and newer data sets.
Together with paleoclimate constraints but without considering the CMIP based evidence these studies show ECS
is likely between 1.5C to 4.5C (medium confidence) and extremely unlikely less than 1.0C. {5.3.1, 5.3.3, 10.8.2;
Boxes 5.2, 12.2}
Estimates based on AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) and feedback analysis indicate a
range of 2C to 4.5C, with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model mean at 3.2C,
similar to CMIP3. High climate sensitivities are found in some perturbed parameter ensembles models, but recent
comparisons of perturbed-physics ensembles against the observed climate find that models with ECS values in the
range 3C to 4C show the smallest errors for many fields. Relationships between climatological quantities and climate sensitivity are often found within a specific perturbed parameter ensemble model but in many cases the relationship is not robust across perturbed parameter ensembles models from different models or in CMIP3 and CMIP5.
The assessed literature suggests that the range of climate sensitivities and transient responses covered by CMIP3
and CMIP5 cannot be narrowed significantly by constraining the models with observations of the mean climate
and variability. Studies based on perturbed parameter
ensembles models and CMIP3 support the conclusion
that a credible representation of the mean climate and
variability is very difficult to achieve with ECSs below
Instrumental
2C. {9.2.2, 9.7.3; Box 12.2}
New estimates of ECS based on reconstructions and
simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka to 19
ka) show that values below 1C as well as above 6C are
very unlikely. In some models climate sensitivity differs
between warm and cold climates because of differences in the representation of cloud feedbacks. Estimates
of an Earth system sensitivity including slow feedbacks
(e.g., ice sheets or vegetation) are even more difficult to
relate to climate sensitivity of the current climate state.
The main limitations of ECS estimates from paleoclimate
states are uncertainties in proxy data, spatial coverage
of the data, uncertainties in some forcings, and structural limitations in models used in modeldata comparisons. {5.3, 10.8.2, 12.5.3}
Bayesian methods to constrain ECS or TCR are sensitive
to the assumed prior distributions. They can in principle
yield narrower estimates by combining constraints from
the observed warming trend, volcanic eruptions, model
climatology and paleoclimate, and that has been done
in some studies, but there is no consensus on how this
should be done robustly. This approach is sensitive to
the assumptions regarding the independence of the various lines of evidence, the possibility of shared biases in
models or feedback estimates and the assumption that
each individual line of evidence is unbiased. The combination of different estimates in this assessment is based
on expert judgement. {10.8.2; Box 12.2}
Based on the combined evidence from observed climate
change including the observed 20th century warming,
climate models, feedback analysis and paleoclimate, as
discussed above, ECS is likely in the range 1.5C to 4.5C
with high confidence. ECS is positive, extremely unlikely
TS
Climatological constraints
Raw model range
CMIP3 AOGCMs
CMIP5 AOGCMs
Palaeoclimate
Combination
5
7
3
4
6
8
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (C)
10
TFE.6, Figure 1 | Probability density functions, distributions and ranges for equilibrium climate sensitivity, based on Figure 10.20b plus climatological constraints
shown in IPCC AR4 (Box AR4 10.2 Figure 1), and results from CMIP5 (Table 9.5).
The grey shaded range marks the likely 1.5C to 4.5C range, grey solid line the
extremely unlikely less than 1C, the grey dashed line the very unlikely greater
than 6C. See Figure 10.20b and Chapter 10 Supplementary Material for full
caption and details. {Box 12.2, Figure 1}
83
Technical Summary
TFE.6 (continued)
Probability / Relative Frequency (C )
less than 1C (high confidence), and very unlikely greater than 6C (medium confidence). The tails of the ECS
distribution are now better understood. Multiple lines
of evidence provide high confidence that an ECS value
less than 1C is extremely unlikely. The upper limit of the
likely range is unchanged compared to AR4. The lower
limit of the likely range of 1.5C is less than the lower
limit of 2C in AR4. This change reflects the evidence
from new studies of observed temperature change,
using the extended records in atmosphere and ocean.
These studies suggest a best fit to the observed surface
and ocean warming for ECS values in the lower part of
the likely range. Note that these studies are not purely
observational, because they require an estimate of the
1.5
response to RF from models. In addition, the uncertainty
in ocean heat uptake remains substantial. Accounting
for short-term variability in simple models remains challenging, and it is important not to give undue weight to
1
any short time period which might be strongly affected by internal variability. On the other hand, AOGCMs
with observed climatology with ECS values in the upper
Black histogram
CMIP5 models
part of the 1.5 to 4.5C range show very good agreeDashed lines
0.5
AR4 studies
ment with observed climatology, but the simulation of
key feedbacks like clouds remains challenging in those
models. The estimates from the observed warming,
paleoclimate, and from climate models are consistent
0
within their uncertainties, each is supported by many
0
1
2
3
4
Transient Climate Response (C)
studies and multiple data sets, and in combination they
provide high confidence for the assessed likely range. TFE.6, Figure 2 | Probability density functions, distributions and ranges (5 to
Even though this assessed range is similar to previous 95%) for the transient climate response from different studies, based on Figure
reports, confidence today is much higher as a result 10.20a, and results from CMIP5 (black histogram, Table 9.5). The grey shaded
of high quality and longer observational records with range marks the likely 1C to 2.5C range, the grey solid line marks the extremely
a clearer anthropogenic signal, better process under- unlikely greater than 3C. See Figure 10.20a and Chapter 10 Supplementary
Material for full caption and details. {Box 12.2, Figure 2}
standing, more and better understood evidence from
paleoclimate reconstructions, and better climate models
with higher resolution that capture many more processes more realistically. All these lines of evidence individually
support the assessed likely range of 1.5C to 4.5C. {3.2, 9.7.3, 10.8; Boxes 9.2, 13.1}
TS
On time scales of many centuries and longer, additional feedbacks with their own intrinsic time scales (e.g., vegetation, ice sheets) may become important but are not usually modelled in AOGCMs. The resulting equilibrium temperature response to a doubling of CO2 on millennial time scales or Earth system sensitivity is less well constrained
but likely to be larger than ECS, implying that lower atmospheric CO2 concentrations are compatible with limiting
warming to below a given temperature level. These slow feedbacks are less likely to be proportional to global mean
temperature change, implying that Earth system sensitivity changes over time. Estimates of Earth system sensitivity
are also difficult to relate to climate sensitivity of the current climate state. {5.3.3, 10.8.2, 12.5.3}
For scenarios of increasing RF, TCR is a more informative indicator of future climate change than ECS. This assessment concludes with high confidence that the TCR is likely in the range 1C to 2.5C, close to the estimated 5 to
95% range of CMIP5 (1.2C to 2.4C), is positive and extremely unlikely greater than 3C. As with the ECS, this is
an expert-assessed range, supported by several different and partly independent lines of evidence, each based on
multiple studies, models and data sets. TCR is estimated from the observed global changes in surface temperature,
ocean heat uptake and RF including detection/attribution studies identifying the response patterns to increasing
GHG concentrations, and the results of CMIP3 and CMIP5. Estimating TCR suffers from fewer difficulties in terms of
state- or time-dependent feedbacks, and is less affected by uncertainty as to how much energy is taken up by the
84
Technical Summary
TFE.6 (continued)
ocean. Unlike ECS, the ranges of TCR estimated from the observed warming and from AOGCMs agree well, increasing our confidence in the assessment of uncertainties in projections over the 21st century.
The assessed ranges of ECS and TCR are largely consistent with the observed warming, the estimated forcing and
the projected future warming. In contrast to AR4, no best estimate for ECS is given because of a lack of agreement
on the best estimate across lines of evidence and studies and an improved understanding of the uncertainties in
estimates based on the observed warming. Climate models with ECS values in the upper part of the likely range
show very good agreement with observed climatology, whereas estimates derived from observed climate change
tend to best fit the observed surface and ocean warming for ECS values in the lower part of the likely range. In estimates based on the observed warming the most likely value is sensitive to observational and model uncertainties,
internal climate variability and to assumptions about the prior distribution of ECS. In addition, best estimate and
most likely value are defined in various ways in different studies. {9.7.1, 10.8.1, 12.5.3; Table 9.5}
TS
TS.5.4 Near-term Climate Change

Near-term decadal climate prediction provides information not available from existing seasonal to interannual (months to a year or two)
predictions or from long-term (mid 21st century and beyond) climate
change projections. Prediction efforts on seasonal to interannual time
scales require accurate estimates of the initial climate state with less
focus extended to changes in external forcing12, whereas long-term
climate projections rely more heavily on estimations of external forcing
with little reliance on the initial state of internal variability. Estimates
of near-term climate depend on the committed warming (caused by
the inertia of the oceans as they respond to historical external forcing)
the time evolution of internally generated climate variability, and the
future path of external forcing. Near-term predictions out to about a
decade (Figure TS.13) depend more heavily on an accurate depiction of
the internally generated climate variability. {11.1, 12, 14}
Further near-term warming from past emissions is unavoidable owing
to thermal inertia of the oceans. This warming will be increased by
ongoing emissions of GHGs over the near term, and the climate
observed in the near term will also be strongly influenced by the internally generated variability of the climate system. Previous IPCC Assessments only described climate-change projections wherein the externally forced component of future climate was included but no attempt
was made to initialize the internally generated climate variability.
Decadal climate predictions, on the other hand, are intended to predict both the externally forced component of future climate change,
and the internally generated component. Near-term predictions do not
provide detailed information of the evolution of weather. Instead they
can provide estimated changes in the time evolution of the statistics of
near-term climate. {11.1, 11.2.2; Box 11.1; FAQ 11.1}
Retrospective prediction experiments have been used to assess forecast quality. There is high confidence that the retrospective prediction
experiments for forecast periods of up to 10 years exhibit positive skill
when verified against observations over large regions of the planet

and of the global mean. Observation-based initialization of the forecasts contributes to the skill of predictions of annual mean temperature for the first couple of years and to the skill of predictions of the
GMST and the temperature over the North Atlantic, regions of the
South Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean up to 10 years (high confidence) partly due to a correction of the forced response. Probabilistic
temperature predictions are statistically reliable (see Section 11.2.3 for
definition of reliability) owing to the correct representation of global
trends, but still unreliable at the regional scale when probabilities are
computed from the multi-model ensemble. Predictions initialized over
20002005 improve estimates of the recent global mean temperature
hiatus. Predictions of precipitation over continental areas with large
forced trends also exhibit positive skill. {11.2.2, 11.2.3; Box 9.2}
TS.5.4.1 Projected Near-term Changes in Climate

Projections of near-term climate show small sensitivity to GHG scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for
hydrological cycle variables. In some regions, the local and regional
responses in precipitation and in mean and extreme temperature to
land use change will be larger than those due to large-scale GHGs and
aerosol forcing. These scenarios presume that there are no major volcanic eruptions and that anthropogenic aerosol emissions are rapidly
reduced during the near term. {11.3.1, 11.3.2, 11.3.6}
TS.5.4.2 Projected Near-term Changes in Temperature

In the absence of major volcanic eruptionswhich would cause significant but temporary coolingand, assuming no significant future
long-term changes in solar irradiance, it is likely that the GMST
anomaly for the period 20162035, relative to the reference period of
19862005 will be in the range 0.3C to 0.7C (medium confidence).
This is based on multiple lines of evidence. This range is consistent
Seasonal-to-interannual predictions typically include the impact of external forcing.
12
85
Technical Summary
with the range obtained by using CMIP5 5 to 95% model trends for
20122035. It is also consistent with the CMIP5 5 to 95% range for
all four RCP scenarios of 0.36C to 0.79C, using the 20062012 reference period, after the upper and lower bounds are reduced by 10% to
take into account the evidence that some models may be too sensitive
to anthropogenic forcing (see Table TS.1 and Figure TS.14). {11.3.6}
0.4
-0.2
0.0
(C)
0.0
-0.4
2000 2010 1960
2-5
3-8
4-7
5-8
Forecast time (yr)
6-9
2-5
3-8
4-7
5-8
Forecast time (yr)
6-9
A future volcanic eruption similar in size to the 1991 eruption of Mt

Pinatubo would cause a rapid drop in global mean surface air temperature of about 0.5C in the following year, with recovery over the
next few years. Larger eruptions, or several eruptions occurring close
together in time, would lead to larger and more persistent effects.
{11.3.6}
2-5
3-8
4-7
5-8
Forecast time (yr)
6-9
Possible future changes in solar irradiance could influence the rate at

which GMST increases, but there is high confidence that this influence
will be small in comparison to the influence of increasing concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere. {11.3.6}
0.15
1-4
0.05
0.10
rmse (C)
0.05 0.10
0.00
1-4
2010
0.3
6-9
0.0
3-8
4-7
5-8
Forecast time (yr)
CMIP5 Init
1-4
CMIP5 NoInit
Figure TS.13 | Decadal prediction forecast quality of several climate indices. (Top row)
Time series of the 2- to 5-year average ensemble mean initialized hindcast anomalies and the corresponding non-initialized experiments for three climate indices: global
mean surface temperature (GMST, left) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV,
right). The observational time series, Goddard Institute of Space Studies Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) global mean temperature and Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Tempearture (ERSST) for the AMV, are
represented with dark grey (positive anomalies) and light grey (negative anomalies)
vertical bars, where a 4-year running mean has been applied for consistency with the
time averaging of the predictions. Predicted time series are shown for the CMIP5 Init
(solid) and NoInit (dotted) simulations with hindcasts started every 5 years over the
period 19602005. The lower and upper quartile of the multi-model ensemble are plotted using thin lines. The AMV index was computed as the sea surface temperature (SST)
anomalies averaged over the region Equator to 60N and 80W to 0W minus the SST
anomalies averaged over 60S to 60N. Note that the vertical axes are different for each
time series. (Middle row) Correlation of the ensemble mean prediction with the observational reference along the forecast time for 4-year averages of the three sets of CMIP5
hindcasts for Init (solid) and NoInit (dashed). The one-sided 95% confidence level with
a t distribution is represented in grey. The effective sample size has been computed
taking into account the autocorrelation of the observational time series. A two-sided
t test (where the effective sample size has been computed taking into account the
autocorrelation of the observational time series) has been used to test the differences
between the correlation of the initialized and non-initialized experiments, but no differences were found statistically significant with a confidence equal or higher than 90%.
(Bottom row) Root mean square error (RMSE) of the ensemble mean prediction along
the forecast time for 4-year averages of the CMIP5 hindcasts for Init (solid) and NoInit
(dashed). A two-sided F test (where the effective sample size has been computed taking
into account the autocorrelation of the observational time series) has been used to test
the ratio between the RMSE of the Init and NoInit, and those forecast times with differences statistically significant with a confidence equal or higher than 90% are indicated
with an open square. {Figure 11.3}
86
The projected warming of global mean temperatures implies high

confidence that new levels of warming relative to 1850-1900 mean
climate will be crossed, particularly under higher GHG emissions scenarios. Relative to a reference period of 18501900, under RCP4.5 or
RCP6.0, it is more likely than not that the mean GMST for the period
20162035 will be more than 1C above the mean for 18501900,
and very unlikely that it will be more than 1.5C above the 18501900
mean (medium confidence). {11.3.6}
2000
0.6
Correlation
0.6
0.9
2-5
0.15
1-4
1970 1980 1990

Year
0.9
1970 1980 1990

Year
0.00
1960
TS
Atlantic multidecadal variability
0.2
Global mean surface temperature change
Higher concentrations of GHGs and lower amounts of sulphate aerosol lead to greater warming. In the near-term, differences in global
mean surface air temperature across RCP scenarios for a single climate
model are typically smaller than across climate models for a single
RCP scenario. In 2030, the CMIP5 ensemble median values for global
mean temperature differ by at most 0.2C between the RCP scenarios,
whereas the model spread (defined as the 17 to 83% range ) for each
RCP is around 0.4C. The inter-scenario spread increases in time and
by 2050 is comparable to the model spread. Regionally, the largest differences in surface air temperature between RCP scenarios are found
in the Arctic. {11.3.2. 11.3.6}
The spatial patterns of near-term warming projected by the CMIP5

models following the RCP scenarios (Figure TS.15) are broadly consistent with the AR4. It is very likely that anthropogenic warming of
surface air temperature over the next few decades will proceed more
rapidly over land areas than over oceans, and it is very likely that
the anthropogenic warming over the Arctic in winter will be greater
than the global mean warming, consistent with the AR4. Relative to
background levels of internally generated variability there is high
confidence that the anthropogenic warming relative to the reference
period is expected to be larger in the tropics and subtropics than in
mid-latitudes. {11.3.2}
It is likely that in the next decades the frequency of warm days and
warm nights will increase in most land regions, while the frequency of
cold days and cold nights will decrease. Models also project increases
in the duration, intensity and spatial extent of heat waves and warm
spells for the near term. These changes may proceed at a different
rate than the mean warming. For example, several studies project that
European high-percentile summer temperatures are projected to warm
faster than mean temperatures (see also TFE.9). {11.3.2}
Technical Summary
Global mean temperature nearterm projections relative to 19862005

2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0.5
Historical
RCPs
2000
2010
2.5
2
1.5
1
2020
2030
2040
2050
(b)
Indicative likely range for annual means

ALL RCPs (595% range, two reference periods)
ALL RCPs minmax (299 ensemble members)
Observational uncertainty (HadCRUT4)
Observations (4 datasets)
ALL RCPs Assessed likely range
for 20162035 mean
0.5
0.5
1.5
TS
Relative to 18501900
1990
Historical
RCPs
2000
2010
1990
Assuming no future
large volcanic eruptions
2020
2030
2040
Projections of 20162035 mean
2050
(c)
1
Using trends
(a)
Observations (4 datasets)
Historical (42 models)
RCP 2.6 (32 models)
RCP 4.5 (42 models)
RCP 6.0 (25 models)
RCP 8.5 (39 models)
0.5
B1 A1B A2 A1B 4.5

4.5 8.5
SRES CMIP3
Obs. Constrained
Key:
5%
2.6 4.5 6.0 8.5 ALL

RCPs CMIP5
1783%
ALL
Assessed
95%
Figure TS.14 | Synthesis of near-term projections of global mean surface air temperature (GMST). (a) Projections of annual mean GMST 19862050 (anomalies relative to
19862005) under all RCPs from CMIP5 models (grey and coloured lines, one ensemble member per model), with four observational estimates (Hadley Centre/Climatic Research
Unit gridded surface temperature data set 4 (HadCRUT4), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim re-analysis of the global atmosphere and surface
conditions (ERA-Interim), Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)) for the period
19862012 (black lines). (b) As (a) but showing the 5 to 95% range of annual mean CMIP5 projections (using one ensemble member per model) for all RCPs using a reference
period of 19862005 (light grey shade) and all RCPs using a reference period of 20062012, together with the observed anomaly for (20062012) minus (19862005) of 0.16C
(dark grey shade). The percentiles for 2006 onwards have been smoothed with a 5-year running mean for clarity. The maximum and minimum values from CMIP5 using all ensemble
members and the 19862005 reference period are shown by the grey lines (also smoothed). Black lines show annual mean observational estimates. The red shaded region shows
the indicative likely range for annual mean GMST during the period 20162035 based on the ALL RCPs Assessed likely range for the 20-year mean GMST anomaly for 20162035,
which is shown as a black bar in both (b) and (c) (see text for details). The temperature scale relative to 1850-1900 mean climate on the right-hand side assumes a warming of
GMST prior to 19862005 of 0.61C estimated from HadCRUT4. (c) A synthesis of projections for the mean GMST anomaly for 20162035 relative to 19862005. The box and
whiskers represent the 66% and 90% ranges. Shown are: unconstrained SRES CMIP3 and RCP CMIP5 projections; observationally constrained projections for the SRES A1B and,
the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios; unconstrained projections for all four RCP scenarios using two reference periods as in (b) (light grey and dark grey shades), consistent with (b); 90%
range estimated using CMIP5 trends for the period 20122035 and the observed GMST anomaly for 2012; an overall likely (>66%) assessed range for all RCP scenarios. The dots
for the CMIP5 estimates show the maximum and minimum values using all ensemble members. The medians (or maximum likelihood estimate; green filled bar) are indicated by a
grey band. (Adapted from Figure 11.25.) See Section 11.3.6 for details. {Figure 11.25}
87
Technical Summary
TS.5.4.3 Projected Near-term Changes in the Water Cycle

Zonal mean precipitation will very likely increase in high and some of
the mid latitudes, and will more likely than not decrease in the subtropics. At more regional scales precipitation changes may be dominated
by a combination of natural internal variability, volcanic forcing and
anthropogenic aerosol effects. {11.3.2}
Over the next few decades increases in near-surface specific humidity
are very likely. It is likely that there will be increases in evaporation
in many regions. There is low confidence in projected changes in soil
moisture and surface runoff. {11.3.2}
TS
In the near term, it is likely that the frequency and intensity of heavy
precipitation events will increase over land. These changes are primarily driven by increases in atmospheric water vapour content, but also
affected by changes in atmospheric circulation. The impact of anthropogenic forcing at regional scales is less obvious, as regional-scale
changes are strongly affected by natural variability and also depend on
the course of future aerosol emissions, volcanic forcing and land use
changes (see also TFE.9). {11.3.2}
It is likely that salinity will increase in the tropical and (especially) subtropical Atlantic, and decrease in the western tropical Pacific over the
next few decades. Overall, it is likely that there will be some decline
in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by 2050 (medium
confidence). However, the rate and magnitude of weakening is very
uncertain and decades when this circulation increases are also to be
expected. {11.3.3}
TS.5.4.6 Projected Near-term Changes in the Cryosphere

A nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean (sea ice extent less than 106 km2 for at
least five consecutive years) in September is likely before mid-century
under RCP8.5 (medium confidence). This assessment is based on a
subset of models that most closely reproduce the climatological mean
state and 1979 to 2012 trend of Arctic sea ice cover. It is very likely that
there will be further shrinking and thinning of Arctic sea ice cover, and
decreases of northern high-latitude spring time snow cover and near
surface permafrost as GMST rises (Figures TS.17 and TS.18). There is
low confidence in projected near-term decreases in the Antarctic sea
ice extent and volume. {11.3.4}
TS.5.4.7 Possibility of Near-term Abrupt Changes in Climate

TS.5.4.4 Projected Near-term Changes in Atmospheric Circulation
Internally generated climate variability and multiple RF agents (e.g.,
volcanoes, GHGs, ozone and anthropogenic aerosols) will all contribute to near-term changes in the atmospheric circulation. For example,
it is likely that the annual mean Hadley Circulation and the SH mid-latitude westerlies will shift poleward, while it is likely that the projected
recovery of stratospheric ozone and increases in GHG concentrations
will have counteracting impacts on the width of the Hadley Circulation and the meridional position of the SH storm track. Therefore it is
unlikely that they will continue to expand poleward as rapidly as in
recent decades. {11.3.2}
There is low confidence in near-term projections of the position and
strength of NH storm tracks. Natural variations are larger than the projected impact of GHGs in the near term. {11.3.2}
There is low confidence in basin-scale projections of changes in intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones in all basins to the mid-21st
century. This low confidence reflects the small number of studies
exploring near-term tropical cyclone activity, the differences across
published projections of tropical cyclone activity, and the large role for
natural variability. There is low confidence in near-term projections for
increased tropical cyclone intensity in the Atlantic; this projection is in
part due to projected reductions in aerosol loading. {11.3.2}
TS.5.4.5 Projected Near-term Changes in the Ocean

It is very likely that globally averaged surface and vertically averaged
ocean temperatures will increase in the near-term. In the absence of
multiple major volcanic eruptions, it is very likely that globally averaged surface and depth-averaged temperatures averaged for 2016
2035 will be warmer than those averaged over 19862005. {11.3.3}
88
There are various mechanisms that could lead to changes in global or

regional climate that are abrupt by comparison with rates experienced
in recent decades. The likelihood of such changes is generally lower
for the near term than for the long term. For this reason the relevant
mechanisms are primarily assessed in the TS.5 sections on long-term
changes and in TFE.5. {11.3.4}
TS.5.4.8 Projected Near-term Changes in Air Quality

The range in projections of air quality (O3 and PM2.5 in surface air) is
driven primarily by emissions (including CH4), rather than by physical climate change (medium confidence). The response of air quality to climate-driven changes is more uncertain than the response
to emission-driven changes (high confidence). Globally, warming
decreases background surface O3 (high confidence). High CH4 levels
(such as RCP8.5 and SRES A2) can offset this decrease, raising 2100
background surface O3 on average by about 8 ppb (25% of current
levels) relative to scenarios with small CH4 changes (such as RCP4.5
and RCP6.0) (high confidence). On a continental scale, projected air
pollution levels are lower under the new RCP scenarios than under the
SRES scenarios because the SRES did not incorporate air quality legislation (high confidence). {11.3.5, 11.3.5.2; Figures 11.22 and 11.23ab,
AII.4.2, AII.7.1AII.7.4}
Observational and modelling evidence indicates that, all else being
equal, locally higher surface temperatures in polluted regions will
trigger regional feedbacks in chemistry and local emissions that will
increase peak levels of O3 and PM2.5 (medium confidence). Local emissions combined with background levels and with meteorological conditions conducive to the formation and accumulation of pollution are
known to produce extreme pollution episodes on local and regional
scales. There is low confidence in projecting changes in meteorological blocking associated with these extreme episodes. For PM2.5, climate change may alter natural aerosol sources (wildfires, wind-lofted
Technical Summary
dust, biogenic precursors) as well as precipitation scavenging, but no

confidence level is attached to the overall impact of climate change on
PM2.5 distributions. {11.3.5, 11.3.5.2; Box 14.2}
TS.5.5 Long-term Climate Change

TS.5.5.1 Projected Long-term Changes in Global Temperature
Global mean temperatures will continue to rise over the 21st century
under all of the RCPs. From around the mid-21st century, the rate of
global warming begins to be more strongly dependent on the scenario
(Figure TS.15). {12.4.1}
The 5 to 95% range of CMIP5 for global mean temperature change

is also assessed as likely for mid-21st century, but only with medium
confidence. With respect to 18501900 mean conditions, global
temperatures averaged in the period 20812100 are projected to likely
exceed 1.5C above 18501900 values for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5
(high confidence) and are likely to exceed 2C above 18501900
values for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high confidence). Temperature change
above 2C relative to 18501900 under RCP2.6 is unlikely (medium
confidence). Warming above 4C by 20812100 is unlikely in all RCPs
(high confidence) except for RCP8.5, where it is about as likely as not
(medium confidence). {12.4.1; Tables 12.2, 12.3}
TS.5.5.2 Projected Long-term Changes in Regional Temperature

Under the assumptions of the concentration-driven RCPs, GMSTs for
20812100, relative to 19862005 will likely be in the 5 to 95% range
of the CMIP5 models; 0.3C to 1.7C (RCP2.6), 1.1 to 2.6C (RCP4.5),
1.4C to 3.1C (RCP6.0), 2.6C to 4.8C (RCP8.5) (see Table TS.1). With
high confidence, the 5 to 95% range of CMIP5 is assessed as likely
rather than very likely based on the assessment of TCR (see TFE.6).
39
25
42
32
There is very high confidence that globally averaged changes over land
will exceed changes over the ocean at the end of the 21st century by
a factor that is likely in the range 1.4 to 1.7. In the absence of a strong
reduction in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning, the Arctic region
is projected to warm most (very high confidence) (Figure TS.15). As
12
17
12
42 models
Figure TS.15 | (Top left) Total global mean radiative forcing for the four RCP scenarios based on the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change
(MAGICC) energy balance model. Note that the actual forcing simulated by the CMIP5 models differs slightly between models. (Bottom left) Time series of global annual mean
surface air temperature anomalies (relative to 19862005) from CMIP5 concentration-driven experiments. Projections are shown for each RCP for the multi-model mean (solid
lines) and 1.64 standard deviation (5 to 95%) across the distribution of individual models (shading), based on annual means. The 1.64 standard deviation range based on the 20
yr averages 20812100, relative to 19862005, are interpreted as likely changes for the end of the 21st century. Discontinuities at 2100 are due to different numbers of models
performing the extension runs beyond the 21st century and have no physical meaning. Numbers in the same colours as the lines indicate the number of different models contributing to the different time periods. Maps: Multi-model ensemble average of annual mean surface air temperature change (compared to 19862005 base period) for 20162035
and 20812100, for RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Hatching indicates regions where the multi-model mean signal is less than one standard deviation of internal variability. Stippling
indicates regions where the multi-model mean signal is greater than two standard deviations of internal variability and where 90% of the models agree on the sign of change. The
number of CMIP5 models used is indicated in the upper right corner of each panel. Further detail regarding the related Figures SPM.7a and SPM.8.a is given in the TS Supplementary
Material. {Box 12.1; Figures 12.4, 12.5, 12.11; Annex I}
89
TS
Technical Summary
Table TS.1 | Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid- and late 21st century relative to the reference period of
19862005. {12.4.1; Tables 12.2,13.5}
20462065
Global Mean Surface

Temperature Change (C) a

Rise (m)b
TS
20812100
Scenario
Mean
Likely rangec
Mean
Likely rangec
RCP2.6
1.0
0.4 to 1.6
1.0
0.3 to 1.7
RCP4.5
1.4
0.9 to 2.0
1.8
1.1 to 2.6
RCP6.0
1.3
0.8 to 1.8
2.2
1.4 to 3.1
RCP8.5
2.0
1.4 to 2.6
3.7
2.6 to 4.8
Scenario
Mean
Likely range
Mean
Likely ranged
RCP2.6
0.24
0.17 to 0.32
0.40
0.26 to 0.55
RCP4.5
0.26
0.19 to 0.33
0.47
0.32 to 0.63
RCP6.0
0.25
0.18 to 0.32
0.48
0.33 to 0.63
RCP8.5
0.30
0.22 to 0.38
0.63
0.45 to 0.82
Notes:
Based on the CMIP5 ensemble; anomalies calculated with respect to 19862005. Using HadCRUT4 and its uncertainty estimate (595% confidence interval), the observed warming to the
reference period 19862005 is 0.61 [0.55 to 0.67] C from 18501900, and 0.11 [0.09 to 0.13] C from 19801999, the reference period for projections used in AR4. Likely ranges have not been
assessed here with respect to earlier reference periods because methods are not generally available in the literature for combining the uncertainties in models and observations. Adding projected
and observed changes does not account for potential effects of model biases compared to observations, and for natural internal variability during the observational reference period. {2.4; 11.2;
Tables 12.2 and 12.3}
Based on 21 CMIP5 models; anomalies calculated with respect to 19862005. Where CMIP5 results were not available for a particular AOGCM and scenario, they were estimated as explained
in Chapter 13, Table 13.5. The contributions from ice sheet rapid dynamical change and anthropogenic land water storage are treated as having uniform probability distributions, and as largely
independent of scenario. This treatment does not imply that the contributions concerned will not depend on the scenario followed, only that the current state of knowledge does not permit a
quantitative assessment of the dependence. Based on current understanding, only the collapse of marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if initiated, could cause global mean sea level to
rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. There is medium confidence that this additional contribution would not exceed several tenths of a metre of sea level rise during
the 21st century.
Calculated from projections as 595% model ranges. These ranges are then assessed to be likely ranges after accounting for additional uncertainties or different levels of confidence in models.
For projections of global mean surface temperature change in 20462065 confidence is medium, because the relative importance of natural internal variability, and uncertainty in non-greenhouse
gas forcing and response, are larger than for 20812100. The likely ranges for 20462065 do not take into account the possible influence of factors that lead to the assessed range for near-term
(20162035) global mean surface temperature change that is lower than the 595% model range, because the influence of these factors on longer term projections has not been quantified due
to insufficient scientific understanding. {11.3}
Calculated from projections as 595% model ranges. These ranges are then assessed to be likely ranges after accounting for additional uncertainties or different levels of confidence in models.
For projections of global mean sea level rise confidence is medium for both time horizons.
GMST rises, the pattern of atmospheric zonal mean temperatures show

warming throughout the troposphere and cooling in the stratosphere,
consistent with previous assessments. The consistency is especially
clear in the tropical upper troposphere and the northern high latitudes.
{12.4.3; Box 5.1}
Models simulate a decrease in cloud amount in the future over most of

the tropics and mid-latitudes, due mostly to reductions in low clouds.
Changes in marine boundary layer clouds are most uncertain. Increases
in cloud fraction and cloud optical depth and therefore cloud reflection
are simulated in high latitudes, poleward of 50. {12.4.3}
It is virtually certain that, in most places, there will be more hot

and fewer cold temperature extremes as global mean temperatures
increase. These changes are expected for events defined as extremes
on both daily and seasonal time scales. Increases in the frequency,
duration and magnitude of hot extremes along with heat stress are
expected; however, occasional cold winter extremes will continue to
occur. Twenty-year return values of low-temperature events are projected to increase at a rate greater than winter mean temperatures
in most regions, with the largest changes in the return values of low
temperatures at high latitudes. Twenty-year return values for hightemperature events are projected to increase at a rate similar to or
greater than the rate of increase of summer mean temperatures in
most regions. Under RCP8.5 it is likely that, in most land regions, a current 20-year high-temperature event will occur more frequently by the
end of the 21st century (at least doubling its frequency, but in many
regions becoming an annual or 2-year event) and a current 20-year
low-temperature event will become exceedingly rare (See also TFE.9).
{12.4.3}
TS.5.5.3 Projected Long-term Changes in Atmospheric Circulation
90
Mean sea level pressure is projected to decrease in high latitudes and

increase in the mid-latitudes as global temperatures rise. In the tropics, the Hadley and Walker Circulations are likely to slow down. Poleward shifts in the mid-latitude jets of about 1 to 2 degrees latitude
are likely at the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5 in both hemispheres (medium confidence), with weaker shifts in the NH. In austral
summer, the additional influence of stratospheric ozone recovery in
the SH opposes changes due to GHGs there, though the net response
varies strongly across models and scenarios. Substantial uncertainty
and thus low confidence remains in projecting changes in NH storm
tracks, especially for the North Atlantic basin. The Hadley Cell is likely
to widen, which translates to broader tropical regions and a poleward encroachment of subtropical dry zones. In the stratosphere, the
BrewerDobson circulation is likely to strengthen. {12.4.4}
TS.5.5.4 Projected Long-term Changes in the Water Cycle

On the planetary scale, relative humidity is projected to remain roughly
constant, but specific humidity to increase in a warming climate. The
projected differential warming of land and ocean promotes changes in
atmospheric moistening that lead to small decreases in near-surface
relative humidity over most land areas with the notable exception
of parts of tropical Africa (medium confidence) (see TFE.1, Figure 1).
{12.4.5}
Technical Summary
century under the RCP8.5 scenario. Many mid-latitude and subtropical

arid and semi-arid regions will likely experience less precipitation and
many moist mid-latitude regions will likely experience more precipitation by the end of this century under the RCP8.5 scenario. Maps of
precipitation change for the four RCP scenarios are shown in Figure
TS.16. {12.4.2, 12.4.5}
It is virtually certain that, in the long term, global precipitation will

increase with increased GMST. Global mean precipitation will increase
at a rate per C smaller than that of atmospheric water vapour. It will
likely increase by 1 to 3% C1 for scenarios other than RCP2.6. For
RCP2.6 the range of sensitivities in the CMIP5 models is 0.5 to 4% C1
at the end of the 21st century. {7.6.2, 7.6.3, 12.4.1}
Globally, for short-duration precipitation events, a shift to more intense

individual storms and fewer weak storms is likely as temperatures
increase. Over most of the mid-latitude land masses and over wet tropical regions, extreme precipitation events will very likely be more intense
and more frequent in a warmer world. The global average sensitivity
of the 20-year return value of the annual maximum daily precipitation
ranges from 4% C1 of local temperature increase (average of CMIP3
models) to 5.3% C1 of local temperature increase (average of CMIP5
models), but regionally there are wide variations. {12.4.2, 12.4.5}
Changes in average precipitation in a warmer world will exhibit substantial spatial variation under RCP8.5. Some regions will experience
increases, other regions will experience decreases and yet others will
not experience significant changes at all (see Figure TS.16). There
is high confidence that the contrast of annual mean precipitation
between dry and wet regions and that the contrast between wet
and dry seasons will increase over most of the globe as temperatures
increase. The g eneral pattern of change indicates that high latitudes
are very likely to experience greater amounts of precipitation due to
the increased specific humidity of the warmer troposphere as well as
increased transport of water vapour from the tropics by the end of this
Annual surface evaporation is projected to increase as global temperatures rise over most of the ocean and is projected to change over land
following a similar pattern as precipitation. Decreases in annual runoff
are likely in parts of southern Europe, the Middle East and southern
Africa by the end of this century under the RCP8.5 scenario. Increases in
annual runoff are likely in the high northern latitudes corresponding to
large increases in winter and spring precipitation by the end of the 21st
century under the RCP8.5 scenario. Regional to global-scale projected
decreases in soil moisture and increased risk of agricultural drought
are likely in presently dry regions and are projected with medium confidence by the end of this century under the RCP8.5 scenario. Prominent
Figure TS.16 | Maps of multi-model results for the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 in 20812100 of average percent change in mean precipitation. Changes are
shown relative to 19862005. The number of CMIP5 models to calculate the multi-model mean is indicated in the upper right corner of each panel. Hatching indicates regions
where the multi- model mean signal is less than 1 standard deviation of internal variability. Stippling indicates regions where the multi- model mean signal is greater than 2
standard deviations of internal variability and where 90% of models agree on the sign of change (see Box 12.1). Further detail regarding the related Figure SPM.8b is given in the
TS Supplementary Material. {Figure 12.22; Annex I}
91
TS
Technical Summary
areas of projected decreases in evaporation include southern Africa

and northwestern Africa along the Mediterranean. Soil moisture drying
in the Mediterranean and southern African regions is consistent with
projected changes in Hadley Circulation and increased surface temperatures, so surface drying in these regions as global temperatures
increase is likely with high confidence by the end of this century under
the RCP8.5 scenario. In regions where surface moistening is projected,
changes are generally smaller than natural variability on the 20-year
time scale. A summary of the projected changes in the water cycle from
the CMIP5 models is shown in TFE.1, Figure 1. {12.4.5; Box 12.1}
TS.5.5.5 Projected Long-term Changes in the Cryosphere
It is very likely that NH snow cover will reduce as global temperatures

rise over the coming century. A retreat of permafrost extent with rising
global temperatures is virtually certain. Snow cover changes result
from precipitation and ablation changes, which are sometimes opposite. Projections of the NH spring snow covered area by the end of the
21st century vary between a decrease of 7 [3 to 10] % (RCP2.6) and 25
[18 to 32] % (RCP8.5) (Figure TS.18), but confidence is those numbers
is only medium because snow processes in global climate models are
strongly simplified. The projected changes in permafrost are a response
not only to warming, but also to changes in snow cover, which exerts a
control on the underlying soil. By the end of the 21st century, diagnosed
near-surface permafrost area is projected to decrease by between 37%
(RCP2.6) to 81% (RCP8.5) (medium confidence). {12.4.6}
NH September sea-ice extent
20812100
RCP6.0
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
RCP2.6
29(3)
39(5)
21(2)
observations
historical
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP6.0
RCP8.5
39(5)
39(5)
TS
It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue shrinking and
thinning year-round in the course of the 21st century as GMST rises.
At the same time, in the Antarctic, a decrease in sea ice extent and
volume is expected, but with low confidence. The CMIP5 multi-model
projections give average reductions in Arctic sea ice extent for 2081
2100 compared to 19862005 ranging from 8% for RCP2.6 to 34%
for RCP8.5 in February and from 43% for RCP2.6 to 94% for RCP8.5 in
September (medium confidence) (Figure TS.17). A nearly ice-free Arctic
Ocean (sea ice extent less than 106 km2 for at least five consecutive
years) in September before mid-century is likely under RCP8.5 (medium
confidence), based on an assessment of a subset of models that most
closely reproduce the climatological mean state and 19792012 trend
of the Arctic sea ice cover. Some climate projections exhibit 5- to
10-year periods of sharp summer Arctic sea ice declineeven steeper
than observed over the last decadeand it is likely that such instances
of rapid ice loss will occur in the future. There is little evidence in global
climate models of a tipping point (or critical threshold) in the transition
from a perennially ice-covered to a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean
beyond which further sea ice loss is unstoppable and irreversible. In
the Antarctic, the CMIP5 multi-model mean projects a decrease in sea
ice extent that ranges from 16% for RCP2.6 to 67% for RCP8.5 in
February and from 8% for RCP2.6 to 30% for RCP8.5 in September
for 20812100 compared to 19862005. There is, however, low confidence in those projections because of the wide inter-model spread
and the inability of almost all of the available models to reproduce the
overall increase of the Antarctic sea ice areal coverage observed during
the satellite era. {12.4.6, 12.5.5}
37(5)
Figure TS.17 | Northern Hemisphere (NH) sea ice extent in September over the late 20th century and the whole 21st century for the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5
in the CMIP5 models, and corresponding maps of multi-model results in 20812100 of NH September sea ice extent. In the time series, the number of CMIP5 models to calculate
the multi-model mean is indicated (subset in brackets). Time series are given as 5-year running means. The projected mean sea ice extent of a subset of models that most closely
reproduce the climatological mean state and 19792012 trend of the Arctic sea ice is given (solid lines), with the minimum to maximum range of the subset indicated with shading.
Black (grey shading) is the modelled historical evolution using historical reconstructed forcings. The CMIP5 multi-model mean is indicated with dashed lines. In the maps, the CMIP5
multi-model mean is given in white and the results for the subset in grey. Filled areas mark the averages over the 20812100 period, lines mark the sea ice extent averaged over
the 19862005 period. The observed sea ice extent is given in pink as a time series and averaged over 19862005 as a pink line in the map. Further detail regarding the related
Figures SPM.7b and SPM.8c is given in the TS Supplementary Material. {Figures 12.18, 12.29, 12.31}
92
Technical Summary
(%)
Snow cover extent change
(106km2)
Near surface permafrost area
Figure TS.18 | (Top) Northern Hemisphere (NH) spring (March to April average) relative snow-covered area (RSCA) in CMIP5, obtained by dividing the simulated 5-year
box smoothed spring snow-covered area (SCA) by the simulated average spring SCA
of 19862005 reference period. (Bottom) NH diagnosed near-surface permafrost area
in CMIP5, using 20-year average monthly surface air temperatures and snow depths.
Lines indicate the multi model average, shading indicates the inter-model spread (one
standard deviation). {Figures 12.32, 12.33}
TS.5.5.6 Projected Long-term Changes in the Ocean

Over the course of the 21st century, the global ocean will warm in
all RCP scenarios. The strongest ocean warming is projected for the
surface in subtropical and tropical regions. At greater depth the
warming is projected to be most pronounced in the Southern Ocean.
Best estimates of ocean warming in the top one hundred metres are
about 0.6C (RCP2.6) to 2.0C (RCP8.5), and 0.3C (RCP2.6) to 0.6C
(RCP8.5) at a depth of about 1 km by the end of the 21st century. For
RCP4.5 by the end of the 21st century, half of the energy taken up by
the ocean is in the uppermost 700 m, and 85% is in the uppermost
2000 m. Due to the long time scales of this heat transfer from the
surface to depth, ocean warming will continue for centuries, even if
GHG emissions are decreased or concentrations kept constant, and will
result in a continued contribution to sea level rise (see Section TS5.7).
{12.4.3, 12.4.7}
TS.5.6 Long-term Projections of Carbon and Other

Biogeochemical Cycles
Projections of the global carbon cycle to 2100 using the CMIP5 ESMs
represent a wider range of complex interactions between the carbon
cycle and the physical climate system. {6}
With very high confidence, ocean carbon uptake of anthropogenic CO2
will continue under all four RCPs through to 2100, with higher uptake
in higher concentration pathways. The future evolution of the land

carbon uptake is much more uncertain. A majority of CMIP5 ESMs project a continued net carbon uptake by land ecosystems through 2100.
Yet, a minority of models simulate a net CO2 source to the atmosphere
by 2100 due to the combined effect of climate change and land use
change. In view of the large spread of model results and incomplete
process representation, there is low confidence on the magnitude of
modelled future land carbon changes. {6.4.3}
There is high confidence that climate change will partially offset
increases in global land and ocean carbon sinks caused by rising atmospheric CO2. Yet, there are regional differences among CMIP5 ESMs in
the response of ocean and land CO2 fluxes to climate. There is high
agreement between models that tropical ecosystems will store less
carbon in a warmer climate. There is medium agreement between the
CMIP5 ESMs that at high latitudes warming will increase land carbon
storage, although none of these models accounts for decomposition of
carbon in permafrost which may offset increased land carbon storage.
There is high confidence that reductions in permafrost extent due to
warming will cause thawing of some currently frozen carbon. However,
there is low confidence on the magnitude of carbon losses through CO2
and CH4 emissions to the atmosphere with a range from 50 to 250 PgC
between 2000 and 2100 for RCP8.5. {6.4.2, 6.4.3}
The loss of carbon from frozen soils constitutes a positive radiative
feedback that is missing in current coupled ESM projections. There is
high agreement between CMIP5 ESMs that ocean warming and circulation changes will reduce the rate of ocean carbon uptake in the
Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, but that carbon uptake will nevertheless persist in those regions. {6.4.2}
It is very likely, based on new experimental results and modelling,
that nutrient shortage will limit the effect of rising atmospheric CO2
on future land carbon sinks for the four RCP scenarios. There is high
confidence that low nitrogen availability will limit carbon storage on
land even when considering anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The
role of phosphorus limitation is more uncertain. {6.4.6}
For the ESMs simulations driven by CO2 concentrations, representation
of the land and ocean carbon cycle allows quantification of the fossil
fuel emissions compatible with the RCP scenarios. Between 2012 and
2100, ESM results imply cumulative compatible fossil fuel emissions of
270 [140 to 410] PgC for RCP2.6, 780 [595 to 1005] PgC for RCP4.5,
1060 [840 to 1250] PgC for RCP6.0 and 1685 [1415 to 1910] PgC for
RCP8.5 (values quoted to nearest 5 PgC, range 1 standard deviation derived from CMIP5 model results) (Figure TS.19). For RCP2.6, the
models project an average 50% (range 14 to 96%) emission reduction
by 2050 relative to 1990 levels. By the end of the 21st century, about
half of the models infer emissions slightly above zero, while the other
half infer a net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere (see also Box
TS.7). {6.4.3; Table 6.12}
When forced with RCP8.5 CO2 emissions, as opposed to the RCP8.5
CO2 concentrations, CMIP5 ESMs with interactive carbon cycles simulate, on average, a 50 (140 to +210) ppm larger atmospheric CO2
concentration and a 0.2 (0.4 to +0.9) C larger global surface temperature increase by 2100 (CMIP5 model spread ). {12.4.8}
93
TS
Technical Summary
It is virtually certain that the increased storage of carbon by the ocean

will increase acidification in the future, continuing the observed trends
of the past decades. Ocean acidification in the surface ocean will
follow atmospheric CO2 and it will also increase in the deep ocean as
CO2 continues to penetrate the abyss. The CMIP5 models consistently
project worldwide increased ocean acidification to 2100 under all
30
Fossil-fuel emissions
25
20
(PgC yr-1)
TS
15
10
5
RCPs. The corresponding decrease in surface ocean pH by the end of

21st century is 0.065 (0.06 to 0.07) for RCP2.6, 0.145 (0.14 to 0.15)
for RCP4.5, 0.203 (0.20 to 0.21) for RCP6.0 and 0.31 (0.30 to 0.32)
for RCP8.5 (CMIP5 model spread) (Figure TS.20). Surface waters are
projected to become seasonally corrosive to aragonite in parts of the
Arctic and in some coastal upwelling systems within a decade, and
1000
800
CMIP5 mean
IAM scenario
RCP8.5
RCP6.0
RCP4.5
RCP2.6
600
400
200
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
0
-5
1850
2000
2050
2100
ESMs
MESSAGE
ESMs
AIM
ESMs
GCAM
ESMs
IMAGE
Historical
(PgC)
500
Years
Historical emission inventories (1860-2005)

RCP8.5 (2006-2100)
RCP6.0 (2006-2100)
RCP4.5 (2006-2100)
RCP2.6 (2006-2100)
1500
1000
1950
Cumulative fossil-fuel emissions
ESMs
2000
1900
0
Figure TS.19 | Compatible fossil fuel emissions simulated by the CMIP5 models for the four RCP scenarios. (Top) Time series of annual emission (PgC yr1). Dashed lines represent
the historical estimates and RCP emissions calculated by the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) used to define the RCP scenarios, solid lines and plumes show results from CMIP5
Earth System Models (ESMs, model mean, with one standard deviation shaded). (Bottom) Cumulative emissions for the historical period (18602005) and 21st century (defined in
CMIP5 as 20062100) for historical estimates and RCP scenarios. Left bars are cumulative emissions from the IAMs, right bars are the CMIP5 ESMs multi-model mean estimate
and dots denote individual ESM results. From the CMIP5 ESMs results, total carbon in the land-atmosphereocean system can be tracked and changes in this total must equal fossil
fuel emissions to the system. Hence the compatible emissions are given by cumulative emissions = CA + CL + CO , while emission rate = d/dt [CA +CL + CO], where CA, CL, CO
are carbon stored in atmosphere, land and ocean respectively. Other sources and sinks of CO2 such as from volcanism, sedimentation or rock weathering, which are very small on
centennial time scales are not considered here. {Box 6.4; Figure 6.25}
94
Technical Summary
in parts of the Southern Ocean within one to three decades in most

scenarios. Aragonite, a less stable form of calcium carbonate, undersaturation becomes widespread in these regions at atmospheric CO2
levels of 500 to 600 ppm. {6.4.4}
It is very likely that the dissolved oxygen content of the ocean will
decrease by a few percent during the 21st century in response to
surface warming. CMIP5 models suggest that this decrease in dissolved oxygen will predominantly occur in the subsurface mid-latitude
oceans, caused by enhanced stratification, reduced ventilation and

warming. However, there is no consensus on the future development of
the volume of hypoxic and suboxic waters in the open ocean because
of large uncertainties in potential biogeochemical effects and in the
evolution of tropical ocean dynamics. {6.4.5}
With very high confidence, the carbon cycle in the ocean and on land
will continue to respond to climate change and atmospheric CO2
increases that arise during the 21st century (see TFE.7 and TFE 8). {6.4}
Global ocean surface pH
(a)
12
TS
pH
11
(b)
10
Change in ocean surface pH (2081-2100)

RCP2.6
RCP6.0
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
-0.6 -0.55 -0.5 -0.45 -0.4 -0.35 -0.3 -0.25 -0.2 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05
Figure TS.20 | (a) Time series (model averages and minimum to maximum ranges) and (b) maps of multi-model surface ocean pH for the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and
RCP8.5 in 20812100. The maps in (b) show change in global ocean surface pH in 20812100 relative to 19862005. The number of CMIP5 models to calculate the multi-model
mean is indicated in the upper right corner of each panel. Further detail regarding the related Figures SPM.7c and SPM.8.d is given in the TS Supplementary Material. {Figure 6.28}
95
Technical Summary
TFE.7 | Carbon Cycle Perturbation and Uncertainties

The natural carbon cycle has been perturbed since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (about 1750) by the
anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere, virtually all from fossil fuel combustion and land
use change, with a small contribution from cement production. Fossil fuel burning is a process related to energy
production. Fossil fuel carbon comes from geological deposits of coal, oil and gas that were buried in the Earth crust
for millions of years. Land use change CO2 emissions are related to the conversion of natural ecosystems into managed ecosystems for food, feed and timber production with CO2 being emitted from the burning of plant material
or from the decomposition of dead plants and soil organic carbon. For instance when a forest is cleared, the plant
material may be released to the atmosphere quickly through burning or over many years as the dead biomass and
soil carbon decay on their own. {6.1, 6.3; Table 6.1}
The human caused excess of CO2 in the atmosphere is partly removed from the atmosphere by carbon sinks in land
ecosystems and in the ocean, currently leaving less than half of the CO2 emissions in the atmosphere. Natural carbon
sinks are due to physical, biological and chemical processes acting on different time scales. An excess of atmospheric
CO2 supports photosynthetic CO2 fixation by plants that is stored as plant biomass or in the soil. The residence times
of stored carbon on land depends on the compartments (plant/soil) and composition of the organic carbon, with
time horizons varying from days to centuries. The increased storage in terrestrial ecosystems not affected by land
use change is likely to be caused by enhanced photosynthesis at higher CO2 levels and nitrogen deposition, and
changes in climate favoring carbon sinks such as longer growing seasons in mid-to-high latitudes. {6.3, 6.3.1}
TS
The uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the ocean is primarily a response to increasing CO2 in the atmosphere. Excess
atmospheric CO2 absorbed by the surface ocean or transported to the ocean through aquatic systems (e.g., rivers,
groundwaters) gets buried in coastal sediments or transported to deep waters where it is stored for decades to
centuries. The deep ocean carbon can dissolve ocean carbonate sediments to store excess CO2 on time scales of centuries to millennia. Within a 1 kyr, the remaining atmospheric fraction of the CO2 emissions will be between 15 and
40%, depending on the amount of carbon released (TFE.7, Figure 1). On geological time scales of 10 kyr or longer,
additional CO2 is removed very slowly from the atmosphere by rock weathering, pulling the remaining atmospheric
CO2 fraction down to 10 to 25% after 10 kyr. {Box 6.1}
The carbon cycle response to future climate and CO2
changes can be viewed as two strong and opposing
feedbacks. The concentrationcarbon feedback determines changes in storage due to elevated CO2, and
the climatecarbon feedback determines changes in
carbon storage due to changes in climate. There is
high confidence that increased atmospheric CO2 will
lead to increased land and ocean carbon uptake but
by an uncertain amount. Models agree on the positive
sign of land and ocean response to rising CO2 but show
only medium and low agreement for the magnitude
of ocean and land carbon uptake respectively (TFE.7,
Figure 2). Future climate change will decrease land
and ocean carbon uptake compared to the case with
constant climate (medium confidence). This is further
supported by paleoclimate observations and modelling TFE.7, Figure 1 | Percentage of initial atmospheric CO2 perturbation remaining
in the atmosphere in response to an idealized instantaneous CO2 emission pulse
indicating that there is a positive feedback between cli- in year 0 as calculated by a range of coupled climatecarbon cycle models. Multimate and the carbon cycle on century to millennial time model mean (line) and the uncertainty interval (maximum model range, shading)
scales. Models agree on the sign, globally negative, of simulated during 100 years (left) and 1 kyr (right) following the instantaneous
land and ocean response to climate change but show emission pulse of 100 PgC (blue) and 5,000 PgC (red). {Box 6.1, Figure 1}
low agreement on the magnitude of this response, especially for the land (TFE.7, Figure 2). A key update since
the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is the introduction of nutrient dynamics in some land carbon models, in
particular the limitations on plant growth imposed by nitrogen availability. There is high confidence that, at the
global scale, relative to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) carbon-only Earth System
96
Technical Summary
TFE.7 (continued)
Models (ESMs), CMIP5 ESMs including a land nitrogen cycle will reduce the strength of both the concentration
carbon feedback and the climatecarbon feedback of land ecosystems (TFE.7, Figure 2). Inclusion of nitrogen-cycle
processes increases the spread across the CMIP5 ensemble. The CMIP5 spread in ocean sensitivity to CO2 and climate
appears reduced compared to AR4 (TFE.7, Figure 2). {6.2.3, 6.4.2}
C4MIP
Climate response
to CO2
CMIP5
0.002
0.004
K ppm-1
0.006
0.008
C4MIP
Land C
response to CO2
CMIP5
Ocean C
C4MIP
response to CO2
TS
CMIP5
0.5
1.0
1.5
PgC ppm-1
Land C
C4MIP
response to climate
CMIP5
Ocean C
C4MIP
response to climate
CMIP5
-200
-160
-120
-80
-40
PgC K-1
2.0
2.5
3.0
TFE.7, Figure 2 | Comparison of carbon cycle feedback metrics between the ensemble of seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Earth System Models of
Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) at the time of AR4 (Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP)) under the SRES A2 scenario and the eight
CMIP5 models under the 140-year 1% CO2 increase per year scenario. Black dots represent a single model simulation and coloured bars the mean of the multi-model
results, grey dots are used for models with a coupled terrestrial nitrogen cycle. The comparison with C4MIP models is for context, but these metrics are known to be
variable across different scenarios and rates of change (see Section 6.4.2). The SRES A2 scenario is closer in rate of change to a 0.5% CO2 increase per year scenario
and as such it should be expected that the CMIP5 climatecarbon sensitivity terms are comparable, but the concentrationcarbon sensitivity terms are likely to be
around 20% smaller for CMIP5 than for C4MIP due to lags in the ability of the land and ocean to respond to higher rates of CO2 increase. This dependence on scenario
reduces confidence in any quantitative statements of how CMIP5 carbon cycle feedbacks differ from C4MIP. {Figure 6.21}
With very high confidence, ocean carbon uptake of anthropogenic CO2 emissions will continue under all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) through to 2100, with higher uptake corresponding to higher concentration pathways. The future evolution of the land carbon uptake is much more uncertain, with a majority of models
projecting a continued net carbon uptake under all RCPs, but with some models simulating a net loss of carbon by
the land due to the combined effect of climate change and land use change. In view of the large spread of model
results and incomplete process representation, there is low confidence on the magnitude of modelled future land
carbon changes. {6.4.3; Figure 6.24}
Biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks other than the carbon cycle play an important role in the future of the climate
system, although the carbon cycle represents the strongest of these. Changes in the nitrogen cycle, in addition to
interactions with CO2 sources and sinks, affect emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) both on land and from the ocean.
The human-caused creation of reactive nitrogen has increased steadily over the last two decades and is dominated
by the production of ammonia for fertilizer and industry, with important contributions from legume cultivation
and combustion of fossil fuels. {6.3}
Many processes, however, are not yet represented in coupled climate-biogeochemistry models (e.g., other processes
involving other biogenic elements such as phosphorus, silicon and iron) so their magnitudes have to be estimated in
offline or simpler models, which make their quantitative assessment difficult. It is likely that there will be nonlinear
interactions between many of these processes, but these are not yet well quantified. Therefore any assessment of
the future feedbacks between climate and biogeochemical cycles still contains large uncertainty. {6.4}
97
Technical Summary
Box TS.7 | Climate Geoengineering Methods

Geoengineering is defined as the deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth system to counter undesirable impacts of climate
change on the planet. Carbon Dioxide Reduction (CDR) aims to slow or perhaps reverse projected increases in the future atmospheric
CO2 concentrations, accelerating the natural removal of atmospheric CO2 and increasing the storage of carbon in land, ocean and geological reservoirs. Solar Radiation Management (SRM) aims to counter the warming associated with increasing GHG concentrations by
reducing the amount of sunlight absorbed by the climate system. A related technique seeks to deliberately decrease the greenhouse
effect in the climate system by altering high-level cloudiness. {6.5, 7.7; FAQ 7.3}
CDR methods could provide mitigation of climate change if CO2 can be reduced, but there are uncertainties, side effects and risks,
and implementation would depend on technological maturity along with economic, political and ethical considerations. CDR would
likely need to be deployed at large-scale and over at least one century to be able to significantly reduce CO2 concentrations. There are
biogeochemical, and currently technical limitations that make it difficult to provide quantitative estimates of the potential for CDR. It
is virtually certain that CO2 removals from the atmosphere by CDR would be partially offset by outgassing of CO2 previously stored
in ocean and terrestrial carbon reservoirs. Some of the climatic and environmental side effects of CDR methods are associated with
altered surface albedo from afforestation, ocean de-oxygenation from ocean fertilization, and enhanced N2O emissions. Land-based
CDR methods would probably face competing demands for land. The level of confidence on the effectiveness of CDR methods and their
side effects on carbon and other biogeochemical cycles is low. {6.5; Box 6.2; FAQ 7.3}
TS
SRM remains unimplemented and untested but, if realizable, could offset a global temperature rise and some of its effects. There is
medium confidence that SRM through stratospheric aerosol injection is scalable to counter the RF and some of the climate effects
expected from a twofold increase in CO2 concentration. There is no consensus on whether a similarly large RF could be achieved from
cloud brightening SRM due to insufficient understanding of aerosolcloud interactions. It does not appear that land albedo change
SRM could produce a large RF. Limited literature on other SRM methods precludes their assessment. {7.7.2, 7.7.3}
Numerous side effects, risks and shortcomings from SRM have been identified. SRM would produce an inexact compensation for the
RF by GHGs. Several lines of evidence indicate that SRM would produce a small but significant decrease in global precipitation (with
larger differences on regional scales) if the global surface temperature were maintained. Another side effect that is relatively well
characterized is the likelihood of modest polar stratospheric ozone depletion associated with stratospheric aerosol SRM. There could
also be other as yet unanticipated consequences. {7.6.3, 7.7.3, 7.7.4}
As long as GHG concentrations continued to increase, the SRM would require commensurate increase, exacerbating side effects. In
addition, scaling SRM to substantial levels would carry the risk that if the SRM were terminated for any reason, there is high confidence
that surface temperatures would increase rapidly (within a decade or two) to values consistent with the GHG forcing, which would
stress systems sensitive to the rate of climate change. Finally, SRM would not compensate for ocean acidification from increasing CO2.
{7.7.3, 7.7.4}
TS.5.7 Long-term Projections of Sea Level Change

TS.5.7.1 Projections of Global Mean Sea Level Change for
the 21st Century
GMSL rise for 20812100 (relative to 19862005) for the RCPs will
likely be in the 5 to 95% ranges derived from CMIP5 climate projections
in combination with process-based models of glacier and ice sheet surface mass balance, with possible ice sheet dynamical changes assessed
from the published literature. These likely ranges are 0.26 to 0.55 m
(RCP2.6), 0.32 to 0.63 m (RCP4.5), 0.33 to 0.63 m (RCP6.0) and 0.45
to 0.82 m (RCP8.5) (medium confidence) (Table TS.1, Figure TS.21). For
RCP8.5 the range at 2100 is 0.52 to 0.98 m. The central projections for
GMSL rise in all scenarios lie within a range of 0.05 m until the middle
of the century, when they begin to diverge; by the late 21st century,
they have a spread of 0.25 m. Although RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 are very
98
similar at the end of the century, RCP4.5 has a greater rate of rise earlier
in the century than RCP6.0. GMSL rise depends on the pathway of CO2
emissions, not only on the cumulative total; reducing emissions earlier
rather than later, for the same cumulative total, leads to a larger mitigation of sea level rise. {12.4.1, 13.4.1, 13.5.1; Table 13.5}
Confidence in the projected likely ranges comes from the consistency
of process-based models with observations and physical understanding. The basis for higher projections has been considered and it has
been concluded that there is currently insufficient evidence to evaluate the probability of specific levels above the likely range. Based on
current understanding, only the collapse of marine-based sectors of
the Antarctic ice sheet, if initiated, could cause GMSL to rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. There is a lack
of consensus on the probability for such a collapse, and the potential
additional contribution to GMSL rise cannot be precisely quantified,
Technical Summary
but there is medium confidence that it would not exceed several tenths
of a metre of sea level rise during the 21st century. {13.5.1, 13.5.3}
Under all the RCP scenarios, the time-mean rate of GMSL rise during
the 21st century is very likely to exceed the rate observed during 1971
2010. In the projections, the rate of rise initially increases. In RCP2.6
it becomes roughly constant (central projection about 4.5 mm yr1)
before the middle of the century, and subsequently declines slightly.
The rate of rise becomes roughly constant in RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 by the
end of the 21st century, whereas acceleration continues throughout
the century in RCP8.5 (reaching 11 [8 to 16] mm yr1 during 2081
2100). {13.5.1; Table 13.5}
In all RCP scenarios, thermal expansion is the largest contribution,
accounting for about 30 to 55% of the total. Glaciers are the next
largest, accounting for 15-35%. By 2100, 15 to 55% of the present
glacier volume is projected to be eliminated under RCP2.6, and 35 to
85% under RCP8.5 (medium confidence). The increase in surface melting in Greenland is projected to exceed the increase in accumulation,
and there is high confidence that the surface mass balance changes on
the Greenland ice sheet will make a positive contribution to sea level
rise over the 21st century. On the Antarctic ice sheet, surface melting
is projected to remain small, while there is medium confidence that
snowfall will increase (Figure TS.21). {13.3.3, 13.4.3, 13.4.4, 13.5.1;
Table 13.5}
1.2
Semi-empirical models are designed to reproduce the observed sea

level record over their period of calibration, but do not attribute sea
level rise to its individual physical components. For RCPs, some semiempirical models project a range that overlaps the process-based likely
range while others project a median and 95-percentile that are about
twice as large as the process-based models. In nearly every case, the
semi-empirical model 95th percentile is higher than the process-based
likely range. For 20812100 (relative to 19862005) under RCP4.5,
semi-empirical models give median projections in the range 0.56 to
0.97 m, and their 95th percentiles extend to about 1.2 m. This difference implies either that there is some contribution which is presently
Sum
2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005
Thermal expansion
Glaciers
Greenland ice sheet (including dynamical change)
Antarctic ice sheet (including dynamical change)
Land water storage
Greenland ice-sheet rapid dynamical change
Antarctic ice-sheet rapid dynamical change
1.0
Global mean sea level rise (m)
There is medium confidence in the ability to model future rapid changes in ice sheet dynamics on decadal time scales. At the time of the AR4,
scientific understanding was not sufficient to allow an assessment of
the possibility of such changes. Since the publication of the AR4, there
has been substantial progress in understanding the relevant processes
as well as in developing new ice sheet models that are capable of
simulating them. However, the published literature as yet provides only
a partially sufficient basis for making projections related to particular
scenarios. In our projections of GMSL rise by 20812100, the likely
range from rapid changes in ice outflow is 0.03 to 0.20 m from the two
ice sheets combined, and its inclusion is the most important reason
why the projections are greater than those given in the AR4. {13.1.5,
13.5.1, 13.5.3}
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
A1B
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP6.0
RCP8.5
Figure TS.21 | Projections from process-based models with likely ranges and median values for global mean sea level (GMSL) rise and its contributions in 20812100 relative to
19862005 for the four RCP scenarios and scenario SRES A1B used in the AR4. The contributions from ice sheets include the contributions from ice sheet rapid dynamical change,
which are also shown separately. The contributions from ice sheet rapid dynamics and anthropogenic land water storage are treated as having uniform probability distributions,
and as independent of scenario (except that a higher rate of change is used for Greenland ice sheet outflow under RCP8.5). This treatment does not imply that the contributions
concerned will not depend on the scenario followed, only that the current state of knowledge does not permit a quantitative assessment of the dependence. See discussion in
Sections 13.5.1 and 13.5.3 and Supplementary Material for methods. Based on current understanding, only the collapse of the marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if
initiated, could cause GMSL to rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. This potential additional contribution cannot be precisely quantified but there is
medium confidence that it would not exceed several tenths of a metre during the 21st century. {Figure 13.10}
99
TS
Technical Summary
1.0
Global mean sea level rise
about 0.43 m sea level equivalent) decreases. In Antarctica, beyond

2100 and with higher GHG scenarios, the increase in surface melting
could exceed the increase in accumulation. {13.5.2, 13.5.4}
Mean over
20812100
0.8
(m)
0.6
TS
0.0
2000
2020
2040
2060
Year
2080
RCP6.0
RCP2.6
0.2
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
0.4
2100
Figure TS.22 | Projections from process-based models of global mean sea level
(GMSL) rise relative to 19862005 for the four RCP scenarios. The solid lines show the
median projections, the dashed lines show the likely ranges for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, and
the shading the likely ranges for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The time means for 20812100
are shown as coloured vertical bars. See Sections 13.5.1 and 13.5.3 and Supplementary
Material for methods. Based on current understanding, only the collapse of the marinebased sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if initiated, could cause GMSL to rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. This potential additional contribution cannot be precisely quantified but there is medium confidence that it would not
exceed several tenths of a metre during the 21st century. Further detail regarding the
related Figure SPM.9 is given in the TS Supplementary Material. {Table 13.5; Figures
13.10, 13.11}
unidentified or underestimated by process-based models, or that the

projections of semi-empirical models are overestimates. Making projections with a semi-empirical model assumes that sea level change in
the future will have the same relationship as it has had in the past to
RF or global mean temperature change. This may not hold if potentially
nonlinear physical processes do not scale in the future in ways which
can be calibrated from the past. There is no consensus in the scientific
community about the reliability of semi-empirical model projections,
and confidence in them is assessed to be low. {13.5.2, 13.5.3}
TS.5.7.2 Projections of Global Mean Sea Level Change

Beyond 2100
It is virtually certain that GMSL rise will continue beyond 2100. The few
available model results that go beyond 2100 indicate global mean sea
level rise above the pre-industrial level (defined here as an equilibrium
280 ppm atmospheric CO2 concentration) by 2300 to be less than 1 m
for a RF that corresponds to CO2 concentrations that peak and decline
and remain below 500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP2.6. For a RF that
corresponds to a CO2 concentration that is above 700 ppm but below
1500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP8.5, the projected rise is 1 m to more
than 3 m (medium confidence). {13.5.4}
Sea level rise due to ocean thermal expansion will continue for centuries to millennia. The amount of ocean thermal expansion increases
with global warming (models give a range of 0.2 to 0.6 m C1). The
glacier contribution decreases over time as their volume (currently
100
The available evidence indicates that global warming greater than a

certain threshold would lead to the near-complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet over a millennium or more, causing a GMSL rise of about
7 m. Studies with fixed present-day ice sheet topography indicate the
threshold is greater than 2C but less than 4C of GMST rise with
respect to pre-industrial (medium confidence). The one study with a
dynamical ice sheet suggests the threshold is greater than about 1C
(low confidence) global mean warming with respect to pre-industrial.
Considering the present state of scientific uncertainty, a likely range
cannot be quantified. The complete loss of the ice sheet is not inevitable because this would take a millennium or more; if temperatures
decline before the ice sheet is eliminated, the ice sheet might regrow.
However, some part of the mass loss might be irreversible, depending
on the duration and degree of exceedance of the threshold, because
the ice sheet may have multiple steady states, due to its interaction
with its regional climate. {13.4.3, 13.5.4}
Currently available information indicates that the dynamical contribution of the ice sheets will continue beyond 2100, but confidence in
projections is low. In Greenland, ice outflow induced from interaction
with the ocean is self-limiting as the ice sheet margin retreats inland
from the coast. By contrast, the bedrock topography of Antarctica is
such that there may be enhanced rates of mass loss as the ice retreats.
About 3.3 m of equivalent global sea level of the West Antarctic ice
sheet is grounded on areas with downward sloping bedrock, which
may be subject to potential ice loss via the marine ice sheet instability.
Abrupt and irreversible ice loss from a potential instability of marinebased sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in response to climate forcing
is possible, but current evidence and understanding is insufficient to
make a quantitative assessment. Due to relatively weak snowfall on
Antarctica and the slow ice motion in its interior, it can be expected
that the West Antarctic ice sheet would take at least several thousand
years to regrow if it was eliminated by dynamic ice discharge. Consequently any significant ice loss from West Antarctic that occurs within
the next century will be irreversible on a multi-centennial to millennial
time scale. {5.8, 13.4.3, 13.4.4, 13.5.4}
TS.5.7.3 Projections of Regional Sea Level Change

Regional sea level will change due to dynamical ocean circulation
changes, changes in the heat content of the ocean, mass redistribution
in the entire Earth system and changes in atmospheric pressure. Ocean
dynamical change results from changes in wind and buoyancy forcing (heat and freshwater), associated changes in the circulation, and
redistribution of heat and freshwater. Over time scales longer than a
few days, regional sea level also adjusts nearly isostatically to regional
changes in sea level atmospheric pressure relative to its mean over
the ocean. Ice sheet mass loss (both contemporary and past), glacier
mass loss and changes in terrestrial hydrology cause water mass redistribution among the cryosphere, the land and the oceans, giving rise
to distinctive regional changes in the solid Earth, Earth rotation and
the gravity field. In some coastal locations, changes in the hydrological cycle, ground subsidence associated with anthropogenic activity,
Technical Summary
tectonic processes and coastal processes can dominate the relative sea
level change, that is, the change in sea surface height relative to the
land. {13.1.3, 13.6.2, 13.6.3, 13.6.4}
By the end of the 21st century, sea level change will have a strong
regional pattern, which will dominate over variability, with many
regions likely experiencing substantial deviations from the global
mean change (Figure TS.23). It is very likely that over about 95% of
the ocean will experience regional relative sea level rise, while most
regions experiencing a sea level fall are located near current and
former glaciers and ice sheets. Local sea level changes deviate more
than 10% and 25% from the global mean projection for as much as
30% and 9% of the ocean area, respectively, indicating that spatial
variations can be large. Regional changes in sea level reach values of
up to 30% above the global mean value in the Southern Ocean and
around North America, between 10% and 20% in equatorial regions,
and up to 50% below the global mean in the Arctic region and some
regions near Antarctica. About 70% of the coastlines worldwide are
projected to experience a relative sea level change within 20% of the
GMSL change. Over decadal periods, the rates of regional relative sea
level change as a result of climate variability can differ from the global
average rate by more than 100%. {13.6.5}
TS.5.7.4 Projections of Change in Sea Level Extremes and Waves

During the 21st Century
It is very likely that there will be a significant increase in the occurrence
of future sea level extremes by the end of the 21st century, with a likely
increase in the early 21st century (see TFE.9, Table 1). This increase will
primarily be the result of an increase in mean sea level (high confidence), with extreme return periods decreasing by at least an order of
magnitude in some regions by the end of the 21st century. There is low
confidence in region-specific projections of storminess and associated
storm surges. {13.7.2}
It is likely (medium confidence) that annual mean significant wave
heights will increase in the Southern Ocean as a result of enhanced
wind speeds. Southern Oceangenerated swells are likely to affect
heights, periods and directions of waves in adjacent basins. It is very
likely that wave heights and the duration of the wave season will
increase in the Arctic Ocean as a result of reduced sea ice extent. In
general, there is low confidence in region-specific projections due to
the low confidence in tropical and extratropical storm projections, and
to the challenge of down-scaling future wind states from coarse resolution climate models. {13.7.3}
Relative Sea Level Change 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005

a)
RCP2.6
b)
RCP4.5
c)
RCP6.0
d)
RCP8.5
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
(m)
Figure TS.23 | Ensemble mean net regional relative sea level change (metres) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between
19862005 and 20812100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and terrestrial water sources. {Figure 13.20}
101
TS
Technical Summary
TFE.8 | Climate Targets and Stabilization

The concept of stabilization is strongly linked to the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is to achieve [] stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent
policy discussions focused on limits to a global temperature increase, rather than to greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, as climate targets in the context of the UNFCCC objectives. The most widely discussed is that of 2C,
that is, to limit global temperature increase relative to pre-industrial times to below 2C, but targets other than
2C have been proposed (e.g., returning warming to well below 1.5C global warming relative to pre-industrial, or
returning below an atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration of 350 ppm). Climate targets generally mean
avoiding a warming beyond a predefined threshold. Climate impacts, however, are geographically diverse and
sector specific, and no objective threshold defines when dangerous interference is reached. Some changes may
be delayed or irreversible, and some impacts could be beneficial. It is thus not possible to define a single critical
objective threshold without value judgements and without assumptions on how to aggregate current and future
costs and benefits. This TFE does not advocate or defend any threshold or objective, nor does it judge the economic
or political feasibility of such goals, but assesses, based on the current understanding of climate and carbon cycle
feedbacks, the climate projections following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in the context of
climate targets, and the implications of different long-term temperature stabilization objectives on allowed carbon
emissions. Further below it is highlighted that temperature stabilization does not necessarily imply stabilization of
the entire Earth system. {12.5.4}
TS
Temperature targets imply an upper limit on the total radiative forcing (RF). Differences in RF between the four RCP
scenarios are relatively small up to 2030, but become very large by the end of the 21st century and dominated by
CO2 forcing. Consequently, in the near term, global mean surface temperatures (GMSTs) are projected to continue
to rise at a similar rate for the four RCP scenarios. Around the mid-21st century, the rate of global warming begins
to be more strongly dependent on the scenario. By the end of the 21st century, global mean temperatures will be
warmer than present day under all the RCPs, global temperature change being largest (>0.3C per decade) in the
highest RCP8.5 and significantly lower in RCP2.6, particularly after about 2050 when global surface temperature
response stabilizes (and declines thereafter) (see Figure TS.15). {11.3.1, 12.3.3, 12.4.1}
In the near term (20162035), global mean surface warming is more likely than not to exceed 1C and very unlikely
to be more than 1.5C relative to the average from year 1850 to 1900 (assuming 0.61C warming from 1850-1900
to 19862005) (medium confidence). By the end of the 21st century (20812100), global mean surface warming,
relative to 1850-1900, is likely to exceed 1.5C for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high confidence) and is likely to
exceed 2C for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high confidence). It is more likely than not to exceed 2C for RCP4.5 (medium
confidence). Global mean surface warming above 2C under RCP2.6 is unlikely (medium confidence). Global mean
surface warming above 4C by 20812100 is unlikely in all RCPs (high confidence) except for RCP8.5 where it is about
as likely as not (medium confidence). {11.3.6, 12.4.1; Table 12.3}
Continuing GHG emissions beyond 2100 as in the RCP8.5 extension induces a total RF above 12 W m2 by 2300, with
global warming reaching 7.8 [3.0 to 12.6] C for 22812300 relative to 19862005. Under the RCP4.5 extension,
where radiative forcing is kept constant (around 4.5 W m-2) beyond 2100, global warming reaches 2.5 [1.5 to 3.5]
C. Global warming reaches 0.6 [0.0 to 1.2] C under the RCP2.6 extension where sustained negative emissions lead
to a further decrease in RF, reaching values below present-day RF by 2300. See also Box TS.7. {12.3.1, 12.4.1, 12.5.1}
The total amount of anthropogenic CO2 released in the atmosphere since pre-industrial (often termed cumulative
carbon emission, although it applies only to CO2 emissions) is a good indicator of the atmospheric CO2 concentration
and hence of the global warming response. The ratio of GMST change to total cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions is relatively constant over time and independent of the scenario. This near-linear relationship between total CO2
emissions and global temperature change makes it possible to define a new quantity, the transient climate response
to cumulative carbon emission (TCRE), as the transient GMST change for a given amount of cumulated anthropogenic CO2 emissions, usually 1000 PgC (TFE.8, Figure 1). TCRE is model dependent, as it is a function of the cumulative
CO2 airborne fraction and the transient climate response, both quantities varying significantly across models. Taking
into account the available information from multiple lines of evidence (observations, models and process understanding), the near linear relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and peak global mean temperature is
102
Technical Summary
TFE.8 (continued)
well established in the literature and robust for cumulative total CO2 emissions up to about 2000 PgC. It is consistent
with the relationship inferred from past cumulative CO2 emissions and observed warming, is supported by process
understanding of the carbon cycle and global energy balance, and emerges as a robust result from the entire hierarchy of models. Expert judgment based on the available evidence suggests that TCRE is likely between 0.8C and
2.5C per 1000 PgC, for cumulative emissions less than about 2000 PgC until the time at which temperature peaks
(TFE.8, Figure 1a). {6.4.3, 12.5.4; Box 12.2}
CO2-induced warming is projected to remain approximately constant for many centuries following a complete
cessation of emissions. A large fraction of climate change is thus irreversible on a human time scale, except if net
anthropogenic CO2 emissions were strongly negative over a sustained period. Based on the assessment of TCRE
(assuming a normal distribution with a 1 standard deviation range of 0.8 to 2.5C per 1000 PgC), limiting the
warming caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions alone (i.e., ignoring other radiative forcings) to less than 2C
since the period 18611880 with a probability of >33%, >50% and >66%, total CO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources would need to be below a cumulative budget of about 1570 PgC, 1210 PgC and 1000 PgC since 1870,
respectively. An amount of 515 [445 to 585] PgC was emitted between 1870 and 2011 (TFE.8, Figure 1a,b). Higher
emissions in earlier decades therefore imply lower or even negative emissions later on. Accounting for non-CO2
forcings contributing to peak warming implies lower cumulated CO2 emissions. Non-CO2 forcing constituents are
important, requiring either assumptions on how CO2 emission reductions are linked to changes in other forcings,
or separate emission budgets and climate modelling for short-lived and long-lived gases. So far, not many studies
have considered non-CO2 forcings. Those that do consider them found significant effects, in particular warming of
several tenths of a degree for abrupt reductions in emissions of short-lived species, like aerosols. Accounting for an
unanticipated release of GHGs from permafrost or methane hydrates, not included in studies assessed here, would
also reduce the anthropogenic CO2 emissions compatible with a given temperature target. Requiring a higher likelihood of temperatures remaining below a given temperature target would further reduce the compatible emissions
(TFE.8, Figure 1c). When accounting for the non-CO2 forcings as in the RCP scenarios, compatible carbon emissions
since 1870 are reduced to about 900 PgC, 820 PgC and 790 PgC to limit warming to less than 2C since the period
18611880 with a probability of >33%, >50%, and >66%, respectively. These estimates were derived by computing
the fraction of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth System Models (ESMs) and Earth
System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) that stay below 2C for given cumulative emissions following
RCP8.5, as shown in TFE.8 Fig. 1c. The non-CO2 forcing in RCP8.5 is higher than in RCP2.6. Because all likelihood
statements in calibrated IPCC language are open intervals, the estimates provided are thus both conservative and
consistent choices valid for non-CO2 forcings across all RCP scenarios. There is no RCP scenario which limits warming
to 2C with probabilities of >33% or >50%, and which could be used to directly infer compatible cumulative emissions. For a probability of >66% RCP2.6 can be used as a comparison. Combining the average back-calculated fossil
fuel carbon emissions for RCP2.6 between 2012 and 2100 (270 PgC) with the average historical estimate of 515 PgC
gives a total of 785 PgC, i.e., 790 PgC when rounded to 10 PgC. As the 785 PgC estimate excludes an explicit assessment of future land-use change emissions, the 790 PgC value also remains a conservative estimate consistent with
the overall likelihood assessment. The ranges of emissions for these three likelihoods based on the RCP scenarios are
rather narrow, as they are based on a single scenario and on the limited sample of models available (TFE.8 Fig. 1c).
In contrast to TCRE they do not include observational constraints or account for sources of uncertainty not sampled
by the models. The concept of a fixed cumulative CO2 budget holds not just for 2C, but for any temperature level
explored with models so far (up to about 5C, see Figures 12.44 to 12.46). Higher temperature targets would allow
larger cumulative budgets, while lower temperature target would require lower cumulative budgets (TFE.8, Figure
1). {6.3.1, 12.5.2, 12.5.4}
TS
The climate system has multiple time scales, ranging from annual to multi-millennial, associated with different
thermal and carbon reservoirs. These long time scales induce a commitment warming already in the pipe-line.
Stabilization of the forcing would not lead to an instantaneous stabilization of the warming. For the RCP scenarios
and their extensions to 2300, the fraction of realized warming, at that time when RF stabilizes, would be about 75
to 85% of the equilibrium warming. For a 1% yr1 CO2 increase to 2 CO2 or 4 CO2 and constant forcing thereafter, the fraction of realized warming would be much smaller, about 40 to 70% at the time when the forcing is
kept constant. Owing to the long time scales in the deep ocean, full equilibrium is reached only after hundreds to
thousands of years. {12.5.4}
103
Technical Summary
TFE.8 (continued)
Temperature anomaly relative to 1861-1880 (C)
TS
a
b
0.5
200
400
600
0
Cumulative emissions
estimate 1870-2011
Peak warming limit (C)
TCRE assessment
1% CO2 runs
RCP2.6 range
RCP4.5 range
RCP6 range
RCP8.5 range
2000-2009 average
2040-2049 average
2090-2099 average
Observations
CMIP5 ESM
Masked ESM
1% CO2 runs
Historical
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP6.0
RCP8.5
500
1000
1500
Cumulative total anthropogenic
CO2 emissions from 1870 (PgC)
2000
2500
c
3
2.5
2
1.5
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Consistent cum. total anthropogenic CO2 emissions given warming by all forcers in RCP8.5 (PgC)
90% of models
66% of models
50% of models
33% of models
2500
10% of models
TFE.8, Figure 1 | Global mean temperature increase since 18611880 as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. (a)
Decadal average results are shown over all CMIP5 Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) and Earth System Models (ESMs) for each RCP respectively,
with coloured lines (multi-model average), decadal markers (dots) and with three decades (20002009, 20402049 and 20902099) highlighted with a star, square
and diamond, respectively. The historical time period up to decade 20002009 is taken from the CMIP5 historical runs prolonged by RCP8.5 for 20062010 and is
indicated with a black thick line and black symbols. Coloured ranges illustrate the model spread (90% range) over all CMIP5 ESMs and EMICs and do not represent
a formal uncertainty assessment. Ranges are filled as long as data of all models is available and until peak temperature. They are faded out for illustrative purposes
afterward. CMIP5 simulations with 1% yr1 CO2 increase only are illustrated by the dark grey area (range definition similar to RCPs above) and the black thin line (multimodel average). The light grey cone represents this Reports assessment of the transient climate response to emissions (TCRE) from CO2 only. Estimated cumulative
historical CO2 emissions from 1870 to 2011 with associated uncertainties are illustrated by the grey bar at the bottom of (a). (b) Comparison of historical model results
with observations. The magenta line and uncertainty ranges are based on observed emissions from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) extended by
values of the Global Carbon project until 2010 and observed temperature estimates of the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set
4 (HadCRUT4). The uncertainties in the last decade of observations are based on the assessment in this report. The black thick line is identical to the one in (a). The
thin green line with crosses is as the black line but for ESMs only. The yellow-brown line and range show these ESM results until 2010, when corrected for HadCRUT4s
incomplete geographical coverage over time. All values are given relative to the 18611880 base period. All time-series are derived from decadal averages to illustrate
the long-term trends. Note that observations are in addition subject to internal climate variability, adding an uncertainty of about 0.1C. (c) Cumulative CO2 emissions over the entire industrial era, consistent with four illustrative peak global temperature limits (1.5C, 2C, 2.5C and 3C, respectively) when taking into account
warming by all forcers. Horizontal bars indicate consistent cumulative emission budgets as a function of the fraction of models (CMIP5 ESMs and EMICs) that at least
hold warming below a given temperature limit. Note that the fraction of models cannot be interpreted as a probability. The budgets are derived from the RCP8.5 runs,
with relative high non-CO2 forcing over the 21st century. If non-CO2 are significantly reduced, the CO2 emissions compatible with a specific temperature limit might
be slightly higher, but only to a very limited degree, as illustrated by the other coloured lines in (a), which assume significantly lower non-CO2 forcing. Further detail
regarding the related Figure SPM.10 is given in the TS Supplementary Material. {Figure 12.45}
104
Technical Summary
TFE.8 (continued)
The commitment to past emissions is a persistent warming for hundreds of years, continuing at about the level of
warming that has been realized when emissions were ceased. The persistence of this CO2-induced warming after
emission have ceased results from a compensation between the delayed commitment warming described above
and the slow reduction in atmospheric CO2 resulting from ocean and land carbon uptake. This persistence of warming also results from the nonlinear dependence of RF on atmospheric CO2, that is, the relative decrease in forcing
being smaller than the relative decrease in CO2 concentration. For high climate sensitivities, and in particular if
sulphate aerosol emissions are eliminated at the same time as GHG emissions, the commitment from past emission
can be strongly positive, and is a superposition of a fast response to reduced aerosols emissions and a slow response
to reduced CO2. {12.5.4}
Stabilization of global temperature does not imply stabilization for all aspects of the climate system. Processes
related to vegetation change, changes in the ice sheets, deep ocean warming and associated sea level rise and
potential feedbacks linking, for example, ocean and the ice sheets have their own intrinsic long time scales. Ocean
acidification will very likely continue in the future as long as the oceans will continue to take up atmospheric CO2.
Committed land ecosystem carbon cycle changes will manifest themselves further beyond the end of the 21st
century. It is virtually certain that global mean sea level rise will continue beyond 2100, with sea level rise due to
thermal expansion to continue for centuries to millennia. Global mean sea level rise depends on the pathway of CO2
emissions, not only on the cumulative total; reducing emissions earlier rather than later, for the same cumulative
total, leads to a larger mitigation of sea level rise. {6.4.4, 12.5.4, 13.5.4}
TS.5.8 Climate Phenomena and Regional Climate Change

This section assesses projected changes over the 21st century in largescale climate phenomena that affect regional climate (Table TS.2).
Some of these phenomena are defined by climatology (e.g., monsoons), and some by interannual variability (e.g., El Nio), the latter
affecting climate extremes such as floods, droughts and heat waves.
Changes in statistics of weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones
and extratropical storms are also summarized here. {14.8}
TS.5.8.1 Monsoon Systems

Global measures of monsoon by the area and summer precipitation are
likely to increase in the 21st century, while the monsoon circulation
weakens. Monsoon onset dates are likely to become earlier or not to
change much while monsoon withdrawal dates are likely to delay, resulting in a lengthening of the monsoon season in many regions (Figure
TS.24). The increase in seasonal mean precipitation is pronounced in
the East and South Asian summer monsoons while the change in other
monsoon regions is subject to larger uncertainties. {14.2.1}
There is medium confidence that monsoon-related interannual rainfall
variability will increase in the future. Future increase in precipitation
extremes related to the monsoon is very likely in South America, Africa,
East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia and Australia. {14.2.1, 14.8.5,
14.8.7, 14.8.9, 14.8.1114.8.13}
There is medium confidence that overall precipitation associated with
the Asian-Australian monsoon will increase but with a northsouth
asymmetry: Indian monsoon rainfall is projected to increase, while
projected changes in the Australian summer monsoon rainfall are
TS
small. There is medium confidence in that the Indian summer monsoon

circulation weakens, but this is compensated by increased atmospheric
moisture content, leading to more rainfall. For the East Asian summer
monsoon, both monsoon circulation and rainfall are projected to
increase. {14.2.2, 14.8.9, 14.8.11, 14.8.13}
There is low confidence in projections of the North American and South
American monsoon precipitation changes, but medium confidence that
the North American monsoon will arrive and persist later in the annual
cycle, and high confidence in expansion of South American Monsoon
area. {14.2.3, 14.8.314.8.5}
There is low confidence in projections of a small delay in the West
African rainy season, with an intensification of late-season rains. The
limited skills of model simulations for the region suggest low confidence in the projections. {14.2.4, 14.8.7}
TS.5.8.2 Tropical Phenomena

Precipitation change varies in space, increasing in some regions and
decreasing in some others. The spatial distribution of tropical rainfall
changes is likely shaped by the current climatology and ocean warming pattern. The first effect is to increase rainfall near the currently
rainy regions, and the second effect increases rainfall where the ocean
warming exceeds the tropical mean. There is medium confidence that
tropical rainfall projections are more reliable for the seasonal than
annual mean changes. {7.6.2, 12.4.5, 14.3.1}
There is medium confidence in future increase in seasonal mean precipitation on the equatorial flank of the Intertropical Convergence
Zone and a decrease in precipitation in the subtropics including parts
105
Technical Summary
Table TS.2 | Overview of projected regional changes and their relation to major climate phenomena. A phenomenon is considered relevant when there is both sufficient confidence
that it has an influence on the given region, and when there is sufficient confidence that the phenomenon will change, particularly under the RCP4.5 or higher end scenarios. See
Section 14.8 and Tables 14.2 and 14.3 for full assessment of the confidence in these changes, and their relevance for regional climate. {14.8; Tables 14.2, 14.3}
Regions
TS
Projected Major Changes in Relation to Phenomena
Arctic
{14.8.2}
Wintertime changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from the small projected increase in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); enhanced warming
and sea ice melting; significant increase in precipitation by mid-century due mostly to enhanced precipitation in extratropical cyclones.
North America
{14.8.3}
Monsoon precipitation will shift later in the annual cycle; increased precipitation in extratropical cyclones will lead to large increases in wintertime
precipitation over the northern third of the continent; extreme precipitation increases in tropical cyclones making landfall along the western coast of
USA and Mexico, the Gulf Mexico, and the eastern coast of USA and Canada.
Central America and Caribbean

{14.8.4}
Projected reduction in mean precipitation and increase in extreme precipitation; more extreme precipitation in tropical cyclones making landfall along
the eastern and western coasts.
South America
{14.8.5}
A southward displaced South Atlantic Convergence Zone increases precipitation in the southeast; positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode displaces
the extratropical storm track southward, decreasing precipitation in central Chile and increasing it at the southern tip of South America.
Europe and Mediterranean

{14.8.6}
Enhanced extremes of storm-related precipitation and decreased frequency of storm-related precipitation over the eastern Mediterranean.
Africa
{14.8.7}
Enhanced summer monsoon precipitation in West Africa; increased short rain in East Africa due to the pattern of Indian Ocean warming; increased
rainfall extremes of landfall cyclones on the east coast (including Madagascar).
Central and North Asia

{14.8.8}
Enhanced summer precipitation; enhanced winter warming over North Asia.
East Asia
{14.8.9}
Enhanced summer monsoon precipitation; increased rainfall extremes of landfall typhoons on the coast; reduction in the midwinter suppression of
extratropical cyclones.
West Asia
{14.8.10}
Increased rainfall extremes of landfall cyclones on the Arabian Peninsula; decreased precipitation in northwest Asia due to a northward shift of extratropical storm tracks.
South Asia
{14.8.11}
Enhanced summer monsoon precipitation; increased rainfall extremes of landfall cyclones on the coasts of the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.
Southeast Asia
{14.8.12}
Reduced precipitation in Indonesia during July to October due to the pattern of Indian Ocean warming; increased rainfall extremes of landfall cyclones
on the coasts of the South China Sea, Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea.
Australia and New Zealand

{14.8.13}
Summer monsoon precipitation may increase over northern Australia; more frequent episodes of the zonal South Pacific Convergence Zone may reduce
precipitation in northeastern Australia; increased warming and reduced precipitation in New Zealand and southern Australia due to projected positive
trend in the Southern Annular Mode; increased extreme precipitation associated with tropical and extratropical storms
Pacific Islands
{14.8.14}
Tropical convergence zone changes affect rainfall and its extremes; more extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones
Antarctica
{14.8.15}
Increased warming over Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctic related to the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode; increased precipitation in
coastal areas due to a poleward shift of storm track.
of North and Central Americas, the Caribbean, South America, Africa

and West Asia. There is medium confidence that the interannual occurrence of zonally oriented South Pacific Convergence Zone events will
increase, leading possibly to more frequent droughts in the southwest
Pacific. There is medium confidence that the South Atlantic Convergence Zone will shift southwards, leading to a precipitation increase
over southeastern South America and a reduction immediately north
of the convergence zone. {14.3.1, 14.8.314.8.5, 14.8.7, 14.8.11,
14.8.14}
The tropical Indian Ocean is likely to feature a zonal pattern with
reduced warming and decreased rainfall in the east (including Indonesia), and enhanced warming and increased rainfall in the west (including East Africa). The Indian Ocean dipole mode of interannual variability is very likely to remain active, affecting climate extremes in East
Africa, Indonesia and Australia. {14.3.3, 14.8.7, 14.8.12}
There is low confidence in the projections for the tropical Atlantic
both for the mean and interannual modes, because of large errors in
model simulations in the region. Future projections in Atlantic hurricanes and tropical South American and West African precipitation are
therefore of low confidence. {14.3.4, 14.6.1, 14.8.5,14.8.7}
106
It is currently not possible to assess how the MaddenJulian Oscillation will change owing to the poor skill in model simulations of this
intraseasonal phenomenon and the sensitivity to ocean warming patterns. Future projections of regional climate extremes in West Asia,
Southeast Asia and Australia are therefore of low confidence. {9.5.2,
14.3.4, 14.8.10, 14.8.12, 14.8.13}
TS.5.8.3 El Nio-Southern Oscillation

There is high confidence that the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
will remain the dominant mode of natural climate variability in the
21st century with global influences in the 21st century, and that
regional rainfall variability it induces likely intensifies. Natural variations of the amplitude and spatial pattern of ENSO are so large that
confidence in any projected change for the 21st century remains low.
The projected change in El Nio amplitude is small for both RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 compared to the spread of the change among models (Figure
TS.25). Over the North Pacific and North America, patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies related to El Nio and La Nia (teleconnections) are likely to move eastwards in the future (medium confidence), while confidence is low in changes in climate impacts on other
regions including Central and South Americas, the Caribbean, Africa,
most of Asia, Australia and most Pacific Islands. In a warmer climate,
the increase in atmospheric moisture intensifies temporal variability
Technical Summary
Change (% or days)
60
40
60
(b) NAMS
90 % tile
20
75 % tile
50 % tile
25 % tile
-20
10 % tile
-40
-60
40
Pav
Psd
R5d
(a) GLOBAL
40 N
20 N
EQ
60
40
20
-20
-20
-40
-40
GMA
GMI
Psd
R5d
Pav
Psd
R5d
60
40
EAS
NAMS
120 W
SAMS
60 W
SAF
0
60 E
40
AUSMC
120 E
180
60
(g) SAF
40
20
-20
-20
-20
-40
-40
-40
-60
-60
R5d
DUR
Pav
Psd
R5d
R5d
DUR
(e) EAS
DUR
TS
-40
20
Psd
Psd
20
Pav
Pav
-20
-60
60
(d) SAS
20
NAF SAS
DUR
(h) SAMS
-60
DUR
Regional land monsoon domain
20 S
40 S
40
20
-60
DUR
20
-20
40
60
(c) NAF
-60
Pav
Psd
R5d
DUR
R5d
DUR
(f) AUSMC
Pav
Psd
Standard deviation of Nino3 index (C)
Figure TS.24 | Future change in monsoon statistics between the present-day (19862005) and the future (20802099) based on CMIP5 ensemble from RCP2.6 (dark blue; 18
models), RCP4.5 (blue; 24), RCP6.0 (yellow; 14), and RCP8.5 (red; 26) simulations. (a) GLOBAL: Global monsoon area (GMA), global monsoon intensity (GMI), standard deviation
of inter-annual variability in seasonal precipitation (Psd), seasonal maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5d) and monsoon season duration (DUR). Regional land monsoon domains
determined by 24 multi-model mean precipitation in the present-day. (b)(h) Future change in regional land monsoon statistics: seasonal average precipitation (Pav), Psd, R5d, and
DUR in (b) North America (NAMS), (c) North Africa (NAF), (d) South Asia (SAS), (e) East Asia (EAS), (f) Australia-Maritime continent (AUSMC), (g) South Africa (SAF) and (h) South
America (SAMS). Units are % except for DUR (days). Box-and-whisker plots show the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles. All the indices are calculated for the summer
season (May to September for the Northern, and November to March for the Southern Hemisphere) over each models monsoon domains. {Figures 14.3, 14.4, 14.6, 14.7}
1.2
of precipitation even if atmospheric circulation variability remains the

same. This applies to ENSO-induced precipitation variability but the
possibility of changes in ENSO teleconnections complicates this general conclusion, making it somewhat regional-dependent. {12.4.5, 14.4,
14.8.314.8.5, 14.8.7, 14.8.9, 14.8.1114.8.14}
0.8
TS.5.8.4 Cyclones
0.6
0.4
PI
20C
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
Figure TS.25 | Standard deviation in CMIP5 multi-model ensembles of sea surface

temperature variability over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Nino3 region: 5S to
5N, 150W to 90W), a measure of El Nio amplitude, for the pre-industrial (PI) control
and 20th century (20C) simulations, and 21st century projections using RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5. Open circles indicate multi-model ensemble means, and the red cross symbol is
the observed standard deviation for the 20th century. Box-and-whisker plots show the
16th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 84th percentiles. {Figure 14.14}
Projections for the 21st century indicate that it is likely that the global
frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially
unchanged, concurrent with a likely increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates (Figure TS.26). The
influence of future climate change on tropical cyclones is likely to vary
by region, but there is low confidence in region-specific projections.
The frequency of the most intense storms will more likely than not
increase in some basins. More extreme precipitation near the centers
of tropical cyclones making landfall is projected in North and Central
America, East Africa, West, East, South and Southeast Asia as well as
in Australia and many Pacific islands (medium confidence). {14.6.1,
14.8.3, 14.8.4, 14.8.7, 14.8.914.8.14}
107
Technical Summary
The global number of extratropical cyclones is unlikely to decrease by

more than a few percent and future changes in storms are likely to
be small compared to natural interannual variability and substantial
variations between models. A small poleward shift is likely in the SH
storm track but the magnitude of this change is model dependent. It is
unlikely that the response of the North Atlantic storm track in climate
projections is a simple poleward shift. There is medium confidence in a
projected poleward shift in the North Pacific storm track. There is low
confidence in the impact of storm track changes on regional climate
at the surface. More precipitation in extratropical cyclones leads to a
winter precipitation increase in Arctic, Northern Europe, North America
and the mid-to-high-latitude SH. {11.3.2, 12.4.4, 14.6.2, 14.8.2, 14.8.3,
14.8.5, 14.8.6, 14.8.13, 14.8.15}
TS.5.8.6 Additional Phenomena

It is unlikely that the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO will
change its behaviour as the mean climate changes. However, natural
fluctuations in the AMO over the coming few decades are likely to
influence regional climates at least as strongly as will human-induced
changes with implications for Atlantic major hurricane frequency, the
West African monsoon and North American and European summer conditions. {14.2.4, 14.5.1, 14.6.1, 14.7.6, 14.8.2, 14.8.3, 14.8.6, 14.8.8}
TS.5.8.5 Annular and Dipolar Modes of Variability

Future boreal wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO is very likely
to exhibit large natural variations as observed in the past. The NAO is
likely to become slightly more positive (on average), with some, but not
very well documented implications for winter conditions in the Arctic,
There is medium confidence that the frequency of NH and SH blocking

will not increase, while the trends in blocking intensity and persistence
remain uncertain. {Box 14.2}
50
50
50
insf. d.
Eastern North Pacific
II
IIII
IV
II
IIII
IV
50
-100 %
I
II
IIII
II
% Change
50
insf. d.
50
II
IIII
insf. d.
Tropical Cyclone (TC) Metrics:
IV
II
IIII
insf. d.
insf. d.
50
IV
50
0
50
I
II
IIII
IV
All TC frequency
Category 4-5 TC frequency
Lifetime Maximum Intensity
Precipitation rate
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
% Change
50
I
II
III
IV
GLOBAL
% Change
% Change
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
IV
50
50
I
IIII
IV
South Pacific
South Indian
insf. d.
200 %
50
50
50
I
% Change
% Change
North Indian
North Atlantic
50
% Change
% Change
Western North Pacific
% Change
TS
North America and Eurasia. The austral summer/autumn positive trend

in Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is likely to weaken considerably as
stratospheric ozone recovers through the mid-21st century with some,
but not very well documented, implications for South America, Africa,
Australia, New Zealand and Antarctica. {11.3.2, 14.5.2,14.8.5, 14.8.7,
14.8.13, 14.8.15}
50
insf. d.
insf. d.
50
I
II
IIII
IV
II
IIII
IV
Figure TS.26 | Projected changes in tropical cyclone statistics. All values represent expected percent change in the average over period 20812100 relative to 20002019, under
an A1B-like scenario, based on expert judgement after subjective normalization of the model projections. Four metrics were considered: the percent change in I) the total annual
frequency of tropical storms, II) the annual frequency of Category 4 and 5 storms, III) the mean Lifetime Maximum Intensity (LMI; the maximum intensity achieved during a storms
lifetime) and IV) the precipitation rate within 200 km of storm center at the time of LMI. For each metric plotted, the solid blue line is the best guess of the expected percent change,
and the coloured bar provides the 67% (likely) confidence interval for this value (note that this interval ranges across 100% to +200% for the annual frequency of Category 4
and 5 storms in the North Atlantic). Where a metric is not plotted, there are insufficient data (denoted X) available to complete an assessment. A randomly drawn (and coloured)
selection of historical storm tracks are underlaid to identify regions of tropical cyclone activity. See Section 14.6.1 for details. {14.6.1}
108
Technical Summary
TFE.9 | Climate Extremes

Assessing changes in climate extremes poses unique challenges, not just because of the intrinsically rare nature
of these events, but because they invariably happen in conjunction with disruptive conditions. They are strongly
influenced by both small- and large-scale weather patterns, modes of variability, thermodynamic processes, land
atmosphere feedbacks and antecedent conditions. Much progress has been made since the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report (AR4) including the comprehensive assessment of extremes undertaken by the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risk of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) but also because of
the amount of observational evidence available, improvements in our understanding and the ability of models to
simulate extremes. {1.3.3, 2.6, 7.6, 9.5.4}
For some climate extremes such as droughts, floods and heat waves, several factors need to be combined to produce
an extreme event. Analyses of rarer extremes such as 1-in-20- to 1-in-100-year events using Extreme Value Theory
are making their way into a growing body of literature. Other recent advances concern the notion of fraction of
attributable risk that aims to link a particular extreme event to specific causal relationships. {1.3.3, 2.6.1, 2.6.2,
10.6.2, 12.4.3; Box 2.4}
TS
TFE.9, Table 1 indicates the changes that have been observed in a range of weather and climate extremes over the
last 50 years, the assessment of the human contribution to those changes, and how those extremes are expected
to change in the future. The table also compares the current assessment with that of the AR4 and the SREX where
applicable. {2.6, 3.7, 10.6, 11.3, 12.4, 14.6}
Temperature Extremes, Heat Waves and Warm Spells
It is very likely that both maximum and minimum temperature extremes have warmed over most land areas since
the mid-20th century. These changes are well simulated by current climate models, and it is very likely that anthropogenic forcing has affected the frequency of these extremes and virtually certain that further changes will occur.
This supports AR4 and SREX conclusions although with greater confidence in the anthropogenic forcing component. {2.6.1, 9.5.4, 10.6.1, 12.4.3}
For land areas with sufficient data there has been an overall increase in the number of warm days and nights. Similar decreases are seen in the number of cold days and nights. It is very likely that increases in unusually warm days
and nights and/or reductions in unusually cold days and nights including frosts have occurred over this period across
most continents. Warm spells or heat waves containing consecutive extremely hot days or nights are often associated with quasi-stationary anticyclonic circulation anomalies and are also affected by pre-existing soil conditions
and the persistence of soil moisture anomalies that can amplify or dampen heat waves particularly in moisturelimited regions. Most global land areas, with a few exceptions, have experienced more heat waves since the middle
of the 20th century. Several studies suggest that increases in mean temperature account for most of the changes
in heat wave frequency, however, heat wave intensity/amplitude is highly sensitive to changes in temperature variability and the shape of the temperature distribution and heat wave definition also plays a role. Although in some
regions instrumental periods prior to the 1950s had more heat waves (e.g., USA), for other regions such as Europe,
an increase in heat wave frequency in the period since the 1950s stands out in long historical temperature series.
{2.6, 2.6.1, 5.5.1; Box 2.4; Tables 2.12, 2.13; FAQ 2.2}
The observed features of temperature extremes and heat waves are well simulated by climate models and are similar to the spread among observationally based estimates in most regions. Regional downscaling now offers credible information on the spatial scales required for assessing extremes and improvements in the simulation of the
El Nio-Southern Oscillation from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) to Phase 5 (CMIP5) and
other large-scale phenomena is crucial. However simulated changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events
is limited by observed data availability and quality issues and by the ability of models to reliably simulate certain
feedbacks and mean changes in key features of circulation such as blocking. {2.6, 2.7, 9.4, 9.5.3, 9.5.4, 9.6, 9.6.1,
10.3, 10.6, 14.4; Box 14.2}
Since AR4, the understanding of mechanisms and feedbacks leading to changes in extremes has improved. There
continues to be strengthening evidence for a human influence on the observed frequency of extreme temperatures
and heat waves in some regions. Near-term (decadal) projections suggest likely increases in temperature extremes
but with little distinguishable separation between emissions scenarios (TFE.9, Figure 1). Changes may proceed at
109
TS
110
Low confidence
Low confidence on a global scale

Likely changes in some regionsd
Likely k
More likely than not k
Very likely m
Likely
Very likely l
Likely k
Likely (since 1970)
Likely (late 20th century)

Likely
More likely than not in some basins

Likely
Likely l {13.7}
{12.4}
{12.4}
{12.4}
{12.4}
{13.7}
More likely than not in the Western North Pacific

and North Atlantic j
{14.6}

Likelye
Likely (medium confidence) on a regional to

global scaleh
Likely over many areas

Very likely over most land areas
Very likely over most of the mid-latitude land

masses and over wet tropical regions
Very likely
Very likely
Very likely
Low confidence
Low confidence
{11.3}
Low confidenceg {11.3}
Likely over many land areas

{11.3}
Not formally assessedb

{11.3}
Virtually certain
Virtually certain
Low confidence
Likely in some regions, since 1970
{3.7}
Low confidencei {10.6}
Low confidence in long term (centennial) changes

{2.6}
Virtually certain in North Atlantic since 1970
{3.7}
Medium confidence
{10.6}
{7.6, 10.6}

Likely in many regions, since 1970e
f
Medium confidence
Likely more land areas with increases than decreases

Likely over most land areas
{2.6}
Medium confidence

Not formally assessed

Medium confidence in many (but not all) regions

Likely
Likely more land areas with increases than decreasesc

{2.6}
Likelya
{10.6}
Likely
Likely (nights only)
Medium confidence on a global scale

Likely in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia {2.6}
Very likely
Very likely
Likely {11.3}
Virtually certain
{10.6}
Very likely
{2.6}
Very likely
{12.4}
* The direct comparison of assessment findings between reports is difficult. For some climate variables, different aspects have been assessed, and the revised guidance note on uncertainties has been used for the SREX and AR5. The availability of new information, improved scientific understanding,
continued analyses of data and models, and specific differences in methodologies applied in the assessed studies, all contribute to revised assessment findings.
Notes:
a Attribution is based on available case studies. It is likely that human influence has more than doubled the probability of occurrence of some observed heat waves in some locations.
b Models project near-term increases in the duration, intensity and spatial extent of heat waves and warm spells.
c In most continents, confidence in trends is not higher than medium except in North America and Europe where there have been likely increases in either the frequency or intensity of heavy precipitation with some seasonal and/or regional variation. It is very likely that there have been increases
in central North America.
d The frequency and intensity of drought has likely increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and likely decreased in central North America and north-west Australia.
e AR4 assessed the area affected by drought.
f SREX assessed medium confidence that anthropogenic influence had contributed to some changes in the drought patterns observed in the second half of the 20th century, based on its attributed impact on precipitation and temperature changes. SREX assessed low confidence in the attribution
of changes in droughts at the level of single regions.
g There is low confidence in projected changes in soil moisture.
h Regional to global-scale projected decreases in soil moisture and increased agricultural drought are likely (medium confidence) in presently dry regions by the end of this century under the RCP8.5 scenario. Soil moisture drying in the Mediterranean, Southwest USA and southern African regions
is consistent with projected changes in Hadley circulation and increased surface temperatures, so there is high confidence in likely surface drying in these regions by the end of this century under the RCP8.5 scenario.
i There is medium confidence that a reduction in aerosol forcing over the North Atlantic has contributed at least in part to the observed increase in tropical cyclone activity since the 1970s in this region.
j Based on expert judgment and assessment of projections which use an SRES A1B (or similar) scenario.
k Attribution is based on the close relationship between observed changes in extreme and mean sea level.
l There is high confidence that this increase in extreme high sea level will primarily be the result of an increase in mean sea level. There is low confidence in region-specific projections of storminess and associated storm surges.
m SREX assessed it to be very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to future upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels.
Increased incidence and/or

magnitude of extreme
high sea level
Increases in intense
tropical cyclone activity
Increases in intensity
and/or duration of drought
Heavy precipitation events.

Increase in the frequency,
intensity, and/or amount
of heavy precipitation
Warm spells/heat waves.

Frequency and/or duration
increases over most
land areas
Warmer and/or more

frequent hot days and
nights over most land areas
Virtually certain
Virtually certain
Likely
Likely
Virtually certain
Late 21st century
Likelihood of further changes

Likely {11.3}
Early 21st century
Very likely
Very likely
{10.6}
Very likely
Very likely
Warmer and/or fewer

cold days and nights
over most land areas
{2.6}
Assessment of a human
contribution to observed changes
Assessment that changes occurred (typically

since 1950 unless otherwise indicated)
Phenomenon and
direction of trend
TFE.9, Table 1 | Extreme weather and climate events: Global-scale assessment of recent observed changes, human contribution to the changes and projected further changes for the early (20162035) and late (20812100) 21st
century. Bold indicates where the AR5 (black) provides a revised* global-scale assessment from the Special Report on Managing the Risk of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX, blue) or AR4
(red). Projections for early 21st century were not provided in previous assessment reports. Projections in the AR5 are relative to the reference period of 19862005, and use the new RCP scenarios unless otherwise specified. See the
Glossary for definitions of extreme weather and climate events.
Technical Summary
Technical Summary
TFE.9 (continued)
a different rate than the mean warming however, with several studies showing that projected European highpercentile summer temperatures will warm faster than mean temperatures. Future changes associated with the
warming of temperature extremes in the long-term are virtually certain and scale with the strength of emissions
scenario, that is, greater anthropogenic emissions correspond to greater warming of extremes (TFE.9, Figure 1). For
high-emissions scenarios, it is likely that, in most land regions, a current 1-in-20-year maximum temperature event
Cold days (TX10p)
(a)
(b)
12
18
Wettest consecutive five days (RX5day)

historical
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
12
20
10
10
0
2100
4
historical
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
1960
1980
2000
2020
Year
2040
2060
2080
TS
Warm days (TX90p)
(c)
60
18
70
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
1980
2000
2020
Year
2040
2060
2080
2000
2020
Year
2040
2060
9 11
(C)
2100
18
60
40
40
20
20
1960
(f)
1980
2000
2020
Year
2040
2060
2080
2100
Future RP for present day 20yr RV of wettest day (RX1day)
29
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
2080
historical
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
60
2100
Future change in 20yr RV of warmest daily Tmax (TXx)
1980
Precipitation from very wet days (R95p)
60
50
1960
1960
(d)
historical
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
70
(e)
Relative change (%)
10
Exceedance rate (%)
15
20
15
Relative change (%)
Exceedance rate (%)
10
18
29
10 12 14 16 18 20
Years
TFE.9, Figure 1 | Global projections of the occurrence of (a) cold days (TX10p)- percentage of days annually with daily maximum surface air temperature (Tmax) below
the 10th percentile of Tmax for 1961 to 1990, (b) wettest consecutive 5 days (RX5day) percentage change relative to 19862005 in annual maximum consecutive
5-day precipitation totals, (c) warm days (TX90p)percentage of days annually with daily maximum surface air temperature (Tmax) exceeding the 90th percentile
of Tmax for 1961 to 1990 and (d) very wet day precipitation (R95p)percentage change relative to 19862005 of annual precipitation from days >95th percentile.
Results are shown from CMIP5 for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Solid lines indicate the ensemble median and shading indicates the interquartile spread
between individual projections (25th and 75th percentiles). Maps show (e) the change from 19862005 to 20812100 in 20-year return values (RV) of daily maximum
temperatures, TXx, and (f) the 20812100 return period (RP) for rare daily precipitation values, RX1day, that have a 20-year return period during 19862005. Both
maps are based on the CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario. The number of models used to calculate the multi-model mean is indicated in each panel. See Box 2.4, Table 1 for index
definitions. {Figures 11.17, 12.14, 12.26, 12.27}
111
Technical Summary
TFE.9 (continued)
will at least double in frequency but in many regions will become an annual or a 1-in-2-year event by the end of
the 21st century. The magnitude of both high and low temperature extremes is expected to increase at least at the
same rate as the mean, but with 20-year return values for low temperature events projected to increase at a rate
greater than winter mean temperatures in most regions. {10.6.1, 11.3.2, 12.4.3}
Precipitation Extremes
It is likely that the number of heavy precipitation events over land has increased in more regions than it has
decreased in since the mid-20th century, and there is medium confidence that anthropogenic forcing has contributed to this increase. {2.6.2, 10.6.1}
There has been substantial progress between CMIP3 and CMIP5 in the ability of models to simulate more realistic
precipitation extremes. However, evidence suggests that the majority of models underestimate the sensitivity of
extreme precipitation to temperature variability or trends especially in the tropics, which implies that models may
underestimate the projected increase in extreme precipitation in the future. While progress has been made in
understanding the processes that drive extreme precipitation, challenges remain in quantifying cloud and convective effects in models for example. The complexity of land surface and atmospheric processes limits confidence in
regional projections of precipitation change, especially over land, although there is a component of a wet-getwetter and dry-get-drier response over oceans at the large scale. Even so, there is high confidence that, as the
climate warms, extreme precipitation rates (e.g., on daily time scales) will increase faster than the time average.
Changes in local extremes on daily and sub-daily time scales are expected to increase by roughly 5 to 10% per C of
warming (medium confidence). {7.6, 9.5.4}
TS
For the near and long term, CMIP5 projections confirm a clear tendency for increases in heavy precipitation events
in the global mean seen in the AR4, but there are substantial variations across regions (TFE.9, Figure 1). Over most
of the mid-latitude land masses and over wet tropical regions, extreme precipitation will very likely be more intense
and more frequent in a warmer world. {11.3.2, 12.4.5}
Floods and Droughts
There continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude
and/or frequency of floods on a global scale over the instrumental record. There is high confidence that past floods
larger than those recorded since 1900 have occurred during the past five centuries in northern and central Europe,
western Mediterranean region, and eastern Asia. There is medium confidence that modern large floods are comparable to or surpass historical floods in magnitude and/or frequency in the Near East, India and central North
America. {2.6.2, 5.5.5}
Compelling arguments both for and against significant increases in the land area affected by drought and/or dryness since the mid-20th century have resulted in a low confidence assessment of observed and attributable largescale trends. This is due primarily to a lack and quality of direct observations, dependencies of inferred trends on the
index choice, geographical inconsistencies in the trends and difficulties in distinguishing decadal scale variability
from long term trends. On millennial time scales, there is high confidence that proxy information provides evidence
of droughts of greater magnitude and longer duration than observed during the 20th century in many regions.
There is medium confidence that more megadroughts occurred in monsoon Asia and wetter conditions prevailed
in arid Central Asia and the South American monsoon region during the Little Ice Age (1450 to 1850) compared to
the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950 to 1250). {2.6.2, 5.5.4, 5.5.5, 10.6.1}
Under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, projections by the end of the century indicate an
increased risk of drought is likely (medium confidence) in presently dry regions linked to regional to global-scale
projected decreases in soil moisture. Soil moisture drying is most prominent in the Mediterranean, Southwest USA,
and southern Africa, consistent with projected changes in the Hadley Circulation and increased surface temperatures, and surface drying in these regions is likely (high confidence) by the end of the century under RCP8.5. {12.4.5}
Extreme Sea Level
It is likely that the magnitude of extreme high sea level events has increased since 1970 and that most of this rise can
be explained by increases in mean sea level. When mean sea level changes is taken into account, changes in extreme
high sea levels are reduced to less than 5 mm yr1 at 94% of tide gauges. In the future it is very likely that there will
be a significant increase in the occurrence of sea level extremes and similarly to past observations, this increase will
primarily be the result of an increase in mean sea level. {3.7.5, 13.7.2}
112
Technical Summary
TFE.9 (continued)
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones

There is low confidence in long-term (centennial) changes in tropical cyclone activity, after accounting for past
changes in observing capabilities. However over the satellite era, increases in the frequency and intensity of the
strongest storms in the North Atlantic are robust (very high confidence). However, the cause of this increase is
debated and there is low confidence in attribution of changes in tropical cyclone activity to human influence owing
to insufficient observational evidence, lack of physical understanding of the links between anthropogenic drivers of
climate and tropical cyclone activity and the low level of agreement between studies as to the relative importance
of internal variability, and anthropogenic and natural forcings. {2.6.3, 10.6.1, 14.6.1}
Some high-resolution atmospheric models have realistically simulated tracks and counts of tropical cyclones and
models generally are able to capture the general characteristics of storm tracks and extratropical cyclones with evidence of improvement since the AR4. Storm track biases in the North Atlantic have improved slightly, but models
still produce a storm track that is too zonal and underestimate cyclone intensity. {9.4.1, 9.5.4}
TS
While projections indicate that it is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or
remain essentially unchanged, concurrent with a likely increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum
wind speed and rainfall rates, there is lower confidence in region-specific projections of frequency and intensity.
However, due to improvements in model resolution and downscaling techniques, it is more likely than not that the
frequency of the most intense storms will increase substantially in some basins under projected 21st century warming (see Figure TS.26). {11.3.2, 14.6.1}
Research subsequent to the AR4 and SREX continues to support a likely poleward shift of storm tracks since the
1950s. However over the last century there is low confidence of a clear trend in storminess due to inconsistencies
between studies or lack of long-term data in some parts of the world (particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH)).
{2.6.4, 2.7.6}
Despite systematic biases in simulating storm tracks, most models and studies are in agreement that the global
number of extratropical cyclones is unlikely to decrease by more than a few per cent. A small poleward shift is
likely in the SH storm track. It is more likely than not (medium confidence) for a projected poleward shift in the
North Pacific storm track but it is unlikely that the response of the North Atlantic storm track is a simple poleward
shift. There is low confidence in the magnitude of regional storm track changes, and the impact of such changes
on regional surface climate. {14.6.2}
113
Technical Summary
TS.6
Key Uncertainties
This final section of the Technical Summary provides readers with a

short overview of key uncertainties in the understanding of the climate
system and the ability to project changes in response to anthropogenic
influences. The overview is not comprehensive and does not describe in
detail the basis for these findings. These are found in the main body of
this Technical Summary and in the underlying chapters to which each
bullet points in the curly brackets.
TS.6.1 Key Uncertainties in Observation of Changes in

the Climate System
TS
There is only medium to low confidence in the rate of change of

tropospheric warming and its vertical structure. Estimates of tropospheric warming rates encompass surface temperature warming rate estimates. There is low confidence in the rate and vertical
structure of the stratospheric cooling. {2.4.4}
Confidence in global precipitation change over land is low prior
to 1951 and medium afterwards because of data incompleteness.
{2.5.1}
Substantial ambiguity and therefore low confidence remains in the
observations of global-scale cloud variability and trends. {2.5.6}
There is low confidence in an observed global-scale trend in
drought or dryness (lack of rainfall), due to lack of direct observations, methodological uncertainties and choice and geographical
inconsistencies in the trends. {2.6.2}
There is low confidence that any reported long-term (centennial) changes in tropical cyclone characteristics are robust, after
accounting for past changes in observing capabilities. {2.6.3}
Robust conclusions on long-term changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation are presently not possible because of large variability on interannual to decadal time scales and remaining differences between data sets. {2.7}
Different global estimates of sub-surface ocean temperatures have
variations at different times and for different periods, suggesting
that sub-decadal variability in the temperature and upper heat
content (0 to to 700 m) is still poorly characterized in the historical
record. {3.2}
Below ocean depths of 700 m the sampling in space and time is
too sparse to produce annual global ocean temperature and heat
content estimates prior to 2005. {3.2.4}
Observational coverage of the ocean deeper than 2000 m is still
limited and hampers more robust estimates of changes in global
ocean heat content and carbon content. This also limits the quantification of the contribution of deep ocean warming to sea level
rise. {3.2, 3.7, 3.8; Box 3.1}
114
The number of continuous observational time series measuring the

strength of climate relevant ocean circulation features (e.g., the
meridional overturning circulation) is limited and the existing time
series are still too short to assess decadal and longer trends. {3.6}.
In Antarctica, available data are inadequate to assess the status
of change of many characteristics of sea ice (e.g., thickness and
volume). {4.2.3}
On a global scale the mass loss from melting at calving fronts and
iceberg calving are not yet comprehensively assessed. The largest
uncertainty in estimated mass loss from glaciers comes from the
Antarctic, and the observational record of iceocean interactions
around both ice sheets remains poor. {4.3.3, 4.4}
TS.6.2 Key Uncertainties in Drivers of Climate Change

Uncertainties in aerosolcloud interactions and the associated
radiative forcing remain large. As a result, uncertainties in aerosol
forcing remain the dominant contributor to the overall uncertainty
in net anthropogenic forcing, despite a better understanding of
some of the relevant atmospheric processes and the availability of
global satellite monitoring. {2.2, 7.37.5, 8.5}
The cloud feedback is likely positive but its quantification remains
difficult. {7.2}
Paleoclimate reconstructions and Earth System Models indicate
that there is a positive feedback between climate and the carbon
cycle, but confidence remains low in the strength of this feedback,
particularly for the land. {6.4}
TS.6.3 Key Uncertainties in Understanding the Climate

System and Its Recent Changes
The simulation of clouds in AOGCMs has shown modest improvement since AR4; however, it remains challenging. {7.2, 9.2.1, 9.4.1,
9.7.2}
Observational uncertainties for climate variables other than temperature, uncertainties in forcings such as aerosols, and limits in
process understanding continue to hamper attribution of changes
in many aspects of the climate system. {10.1, 10.3, 10.7}
Changes in the water cycle remain less reliably modelled in both
their changes and their internal variability, limiting confidence in
attribution assessments. Observational uncertainties and the large
effect of internal variability on observed precipitation also precludes a more confident assessment of the causes of precipitation
changes. {2.5.1, 2.5.4, 10.3.2}
Modelling uncertainties related to model resolution and incorporation of relevant processes become more important at regional
scales, and the effects of internal variability become more significant. Therefore, challenges persist in attributing observed change
to external forcing at regional scales. {2.4.1, 10.3.1}
Technical Summary
The ability to simulate changes in frequency and intensity of

extreme events is limited by the ability of models to reliably simulate mean changes in key features. {10.6.1}
In some aspects of the climate system, including changes in
drought, changes in tropical cyclone activity, Antarctic warming,
Antarctic sea ice extent, and Antarctic mass balance, confidence
in attribution to human influence remains low due to modelling uncertainties and low agreement between scientific studies.
{10.3.1, 10.5.2, 10.6.1}
TS.6.4 Key Uncertainties in Projections of Global and

Regional Climate Change
Based on model results there is limited confidence in the predictability of yearly to decadal averages of temperature both for the
global average and for some geographical regions. Multi-model
results for precipitation indicate a generally low predictability.
Short-term climate projection is also limited by the uncertainty in
projections of natural forcing. {11.1, 11.2, 11.3.1, 11.3.6; Box 11.1}
TS
There is medium confidence in near-term projections of a northward shift of NH storm track and westerlies. {11.3.2}
There is generally low confidence in basin-scale projections of significant trends in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity in the
21st century. {11.3.2, 14.6.1}
Projected changes in soil moisture and surface run off are not
robust in many regions. {11.3.2, 12.4.5}
Several components or phenomena in the climate system could
potentially exhibit abrupt or nonlinear changes, but for many phenomena there is low confidence and little consensus on the likelihood of such events over the 21st century. {12.5.5}
There is low confidence on magnitude of carbon losses through
CO2 or CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from thawing permafrost. There is low confidence in projected future CH4 emissions
from natural sources due to changes in wetlands and gas hydrate
release from the sea floor. {6.4.3, 6.4.7}
There is medium confidence in the projected contributions to sea
level rise by models of ice sheet dynamics for the 21st century, and
low confidence in their projections beyond 2100. {13.3.3}
There is low confidence in semi-empirical model projections of
global mean sea level rise, and no consensus in the scientific community about their reliability. {13.5.2, 13.5.3}
There is low confidence in projections of many aspects of climate
phenomena that influence regional climate change, including
changes in amplitude and spatial pattern of modes of climate variability. {9.5.3, 14.214.7}
115
FAQ
These Frequently Asked Questions have been extracted from the chapters of the underlying report and are compiled
here. When referencing specific FAQs, please reference the corresponding chapter in the report from where the FAQ
originated (e.g., FAQ 3.1 is part of Chapter 3).
119
Table of Contents
FAQ
FAQ 1.1

If Understanding of the Climate System Has

Increased, Why Hasnt the Range of
Temperature Projections Been Reduced?............ 121
FAQ 2.1
How Do We Know the World Has Warmed?......... 123
FAQ 2.2

Have There Been Any Changes in Climate

Extremes?................................................................. 125
FAQ 3.1
Is the Ocean Warming? .......................................... 127
FAQ 3.2

Is There Evidence for Changes in the

Earths Water Cycle?............................................... 129
FAQ 3.3

How Does Anthropogenic Ocean

Acidification Relate to Climate Change?............. 131
FAQ 4.1

How Is Sea Ice Changing in the Arctic

and Antarctic? ........................................................ 133
FAQ 4.2

Are Glaciers in Mountain Regions

Disappearing?......................................................... 135
FAQ 5.1

Is the Sun a Major Driver of Recent Changes

in Climate?............................................................... 137
FAQ 5.2

How Unusual is the Current Sea Level Rate

of Change?............................................................... 139
FAQ 6.1

Could Rapid Release of Methane and Carbon

Dioxide from Thawing Permafrost or Ocean
Warming Substantially Increase Warming?......... 141
FAQ 6.2

What Happens to Carbon Dioxide After It Is

Emitted into the Atmosphere?.............................. 143
FAQ 7.1

How Do Clouds Affect Climate and

Climate Change?..................................................... 145
FAQ 7.2

How Do Aerosols Affect Climate and

Climate Change?..................................................... 147
FAQ 7.3

Could Geoengineering Counteract Climate

Change and What Side Effects Might Occur?...... 149
FAQ 8.1

How Important Is Water Vapour to

Climate Change?..................................................... 153
FAQ 8.2

Do Improvements in Air Quality Have an

Effect on Climate Change?.................................... 155
FAQ 9.1

Are Climate Models Getting Better, and

How Would We Know?............................................ 157
120
FAQ 10.1 Climate Is Always Changing. How Do We

Determine the Causes of Observed Changes?.... 159
FAQ 10.2 When Will Human Influences on Climate

Become Obvious on Local Scales?........................ 161
FAQ 11.1 If You Cannot Predict the Weather Next

Month, How Can You Predict Climate for

the Coming Decade?............................................... 163
FAQ 11.2 How Do Volcanic Eruptions Affect Climate

and Our Ability to Predict Climate?...................... 165
FAQ 12.1 Why Are So Many Models and Scenarios

Used to Project Climate Change?......................... 167

FAQ 12.2 How Will the Earths Water Cycle Change?.......... 169
FAQ 12.3 What Would Happen to Future Climate if

We Stopped Emissions Today?.............................. 171
FAQ 13.1 Why Does Local Sea Level Change Differ

from the Global Average?...................................... 173
FAQ 13.2 Will the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Contribute to Sea Level Change over the

Rest of the Century?............................................... 175
FAQ 14.1 How is Climate Change Affecting

Monsoons?............................................................... 179
FAQ 14.2 How Are Future Projections in Regional

Climate Related to Projections of

Global Means?......................................................... 181
FAQ 1.1 | If Understanding of the Climate System Has Increased, Why Hasnt the Range of
Temperature Projections Been Reduced?
The models used to calculate the IPCCs temperature projections agree on the direction of future global change,
but the projected size of those changes cannot be precisely predicted. Future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission rates
could take any one of many possible trajectories, and some underlying physical processes are not yet completely
understood, making them difficult to model. Those uncertainties, combined with natural year-to-year climate
variability, produce an uncertainty range in temperature projections.
The uncertainty range around projected GHG and aerosol precursor emissions (which depend on projections of
future social and economic conditions) cannot be materially reduced. Nevertheless, improved understanding and
climate modelsalong with observational constraintsmay reduce the uncertainty range around some factors that
influence the climates response to those emission changes. The complexity of the climate system, however, makes
this a slow process. (FAQ1.1, Figure 1)
Climate science has made many important advances since the last IPCC assessment report, thanks to improvements
in measurements and data analysis in the cryosphere, atmosphere, land, biosphere and ocean systems. Scientists
also have better understanding and tools to model the role of clouds, sea ice, aerosols, small-scale ocean mixing,
the carbon cycle and other processes. More observations mean that models can now be evaluated more thoroughly,
and projections can be better constrained. For example, as models and observational analysis have improved,
projections of sea level rise have become more accurate, balancing the current sea level rise budget.
FAQ
Despite these advances, there is still a range in plausible projections for future global and regional climate
what scientists call an uncertainty range. These uncertainty ranges are specific to the variable being considered
(precipitation vs. temperature, for instance) and the spatial and temporal extent (such as regional vs. global
averages). Uncertainties in climate projections arise from natural variability and uncertainty around the rate of
future emissions and the climates response to them. They can also occur because representations of some known
processes are as yet unrefined, and because some processes are not included in the models.
There are fundamental limits to just how precisely annual temperatures can be projected, because of the chaotic
nature of the climate system. Furthermore, decadal-scale projections are sensitive to prevailing conditionssuch
as the temperature of the deep oceanthat are less well known. Some natural variability over decades arises from
interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, land, biosphere and cryosphere, and is also linked to phenomena such
as the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (see Box 2.5 for details on patterns and
indices of climate variability).
Volcanic eruptions and variations in the suns output also contribute to natural variability, although they are
externally forced and explainable. This natural variability can be viewed as part of the noise in the climate record,
which provides the backdrop against which the signal of anthropogenic climate change is detected.
Natural variability has a greater influence on uncertainty at regional and local scales than it does over continental
or global scales. It is inherent in the Earth system, and more knowledge will not eliminate the uncertainties it brings.
However, some progress is possibleparticularly for projections up to a few years aheadwhich exploit advances
in knowledge of, for instance, the cryosphere or ocean state and processes. This is an area of active research. When
climate variables are averaged over decadal timescales or longer, the relative importance of internal variability
diminishes, making the long-term signals more evident (FAQ1.1, Figure 1). This long-term perspective is consistent
with a common definition of climate as an average over 30 years.
A second source of uncertainty stems from the many possible trajectories that future emission rates of GHGs
and aerosol precursors might take, and from future trends in land use. Nevertheless, climate projections rely on
input from these variables. So to obtain these estimates, scientists consider a number of alternative scenarios for
future human society, in terms of population, economic and technological change, and political choices. They then
estimate the likely emissions under each scenario. The IPCC informs policymaking, therefore climate projections
for different emissions scenarios can be useful as they show the possible climatic consequences of different policy
choices. These scenarios are intended to be compatible with the full range of emissions scenarios described in the
current scientific literature, with or without climate policy. As such, they are designed to sample uncertainty in
future scenarios. (continued on next page)
121
FAQ 1.1 (continued)
Projections for the next few years and decades are sensitive to emissions of short-lived compounds such as aerosols
and methane. More distant projections, however, are more sensitive to alternative scenarios around long-lived GHG
emissions. These scenario-dependent uncertainties will not be reduced by improvements in climate science, and will
become the dominant uncertainty in projections over longer timescales (e.g., 2100) (FAQ 1.1, Figure 1).
The final contribution to the uncertainty range comes from our imperfect knowledge of how the climate will
respond to future anthropogenic emissions and land use change. Scientists principally use computer-based global
climate models to estimate this response. A few dozen global climate models have been developed by different
groups of scientists around the world. All models are built on the same physical principles, but some approximations
are needed because the climate system is so complex. Different groups choose slightly different approximations
to represent specific processes in the atmosphere, such as clouds. These choices produce differences in climate
projections from different models. This contribution to the uncertainty range is described as response uncertainty
or model uncertainty.
The complexity of the Earth system means that future climate could follow many different scenarios, yet still
be consistent with current understanding and models. As observational records lengthen and models improve,
researchers should be able, within the limitations of the range of natural variability, to narrow that range in
probable temperature in the next few decades (FAQ 1.1, Figure 1). It is also possible to use information about the
current state of the oceans and cryosphere to produce better projections up to a few years ahead.
(a)
3.5
(b)
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
2
1.5
Global average temperature change (C)
Decadal mean temperature anomalies

Observations
4
Natural variability
3.5
Climate response uncertainty
Emission uncertainty
Historical GCM uncertainty
3
All 90% uncertainty ranges
2.5
As science improves, new geophysical processes can be added to climate models, and representations of those
already included can be improved. These developments can appear to increase model-derived estimates of climate
response uncertainty, but such increases merely reflect the quantification of previously unmeasured sources of
uncertainty (FAQ1.1, Figure 1). As more and more important processes are added, the influence of unquantified
processes lessens, and there can be more confidence in the projections.
FAQ
0
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
4
3.5
(c)
2.5
0.5
1.5
0.5
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
Year
2060
2080
2100
0
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
FAQ 1.1, Figure 1 | Schematic diagram showing the relative importance of different uncertainties, and their evolution in time. (a) Decadal mean surface temperature
change (C) from the historical record (black line), with climate model estimates of uncertainty for historical period (grey), along with future climate projections and
uncertainty. Values are normalised by means from 1961 to 1980. Natural variability (orange) derives from model interannual variability, and is assumed constant with
time. Emission uncertainty (green) is estimated as the model mean difference in projections from different scenarios. Climate response uncertainty (blue-solid) is based
on climate model spread, along with added uncertainties from the carbon cycle, as well as rough estimates of additional uncertainty from poorly modelled processes.
Based on Hawkins and Sutton (2011) and Huntingford et al. (2009). (b) Climate response uncertainty can appear to increase when a new process is discovered to be
relevant, but such increases reflect a quantification of previously unmeasured uncertainty, or (c) can decrease with additional model improvements and observational
constraints. The given uncertainty range of 90% means that the temperature is estimated to be in that range, with a probability of 90%.
122
FAQ 2.1 | How Do We Know the World Has Warmed?

Evidence for a warming world comes from multiple independent climate indicators, from high up in the atmosphere
to the depths of the oceans. They include changes in surface, atmospheric and oceanic temperatures; glaciers; snow
cover; sea ice; sea level and atmospheric water vapour. Scientists from all over the world have independently verified this evidence many times. That the world has warmed since the 19th century is unequivocal.
Discussion about climate warming often centres on potential residual biases in temperature records from landbased weather stations. These records are very important, but they only represent one indicator of changes in the
climate system. Broader evidence for a warming world comes from a wide range of independent physically consistent measurements of many other, strongly interlinked, elements of the climate system (FAQ 2.1, Figure 1).
A rise in global average surface temperatures is the best-known indicator of climate change. Although each year and
even decade is not always warmer than the last, global surface temperatures have warmed substantially since 1900.
Warming land temperatures correspond closely with the observed warming trend over the oceans. Warming oceanic air temperatures, measured from aboard ships, and temperatures of the sea surface itself also coincide, as
borne out by many independent analyses.
The atmosphere and ocean are both fluid bodies, so warming at the surface should also be seen in the lower atmosphere, and deeper down into the upper oceans, and observations confirm that this is indeed the case. Analyses of
measurements made by weather balloon radiosondes and satellites consistently show warming of the troposphere,
the active weather layer of the atmosphere. More than 90% of the excess energy absorbed by the climate system
since at least the 1970s has been stored in the oceans as can be seen from global records of ocean heat content
going back to the 1950s. (continued on next page)
FAQ
Glacier Volume
Air Temperature
in the lowest few Km (troposphere)
Water Vapor
Temperature
Over Land
Sea Ice Area

Snow Cover
Marine Air Temperature
Sea Surface Temperature
Sea Level
Ocean Heat Content
FAQ 2.1, Figure 1 | Independent analyses of many components of the climate system that would be expected to change in a warming world exhibit trends
consistent with warming (arrow direction denotes the sign of the change), as shown in FAQ 2.1, Figure 2.
123
FAQ 2.1 (continued)
As the oceans warm, the water itself expands. This expansion is one of the main drivers of the independently
observed rise in sea levels over the past century. Melting of glaciers and ice sheets also contribute, as do changes in
storage and usage of water on land.
A warmer world is also a moister one, because warmer air can hold more water vapour. Global analyses show that
specific humidity, which measures the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere, has increased over both the land
and the oceans.
The frozen parts of the planetknown collectively as the cryosphereaffect, and are affected by, local changes
in temperature. The amount of ice contained in glaciers globally has been declining every year for more than 20
years, and the lost mass contributes, in part, to the observed rise in sea level. Snow cover is sensitive to changes in
temperature, particularly during the spring, when snow starts to melt. Spring snow cover has shrunk across the NH
since the 1950s. Substantial losses in Arctic sea ice have been observed since satellite records began, particularly at
the time of the mimimum extent, which occurs in September at the end of the annual melt season. By contrast, the
increase in Antarctic sea ice has been smaller.
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
Temperature
anomaly (C)
0.4
Sea-surface temperature: 5 datasets
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-10
-0.6
Temperature
anomaly (C)
0.4
0.2
Sea level
anomaly (mm)
0.2
0.0
-0.4
50
-0.2
Sea level: 6 datasets
6 Northern hemisphere (March4 April) snow cover: 2 datasets
-50
-100
-2
-150
-4
-200
12
-6
10
5
10
8
Summer arctic sea-ice extent: 6 datasets
Glacier mass balance:

3 datasets
0
-5
6
4
Specific humidity:
4 datasets
0.0
-0.2
-0.6
100
Extent (106km2)
0.4
Marine air temperature: 2 datasets
-10
1850
1900
1950
Year
2000
-15
1940
1960
1980
Ocean heat content

anomaly (1022 J)
0.5
Specific humidity
anomaly (g/kg)
Temperature
anomaly (C)
0.6
Tropospheric temperature:
0.4 7 datasets
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
20
Ocean heat content(0-700m):
5 datasets
10
Land surface air temperature: 4 datasets
Mass balance (1015GT) Extent anomaly (106km2)
1.0
FAQ
Temperature
anomaly (C)
Individually, any single analysis might be unconvincing, but analysis of these different indicators and independent
data sets has led many independent research groups to all reach the same conclusion. From the deep oceans to the
top of the troposphere, the evidence of warmer air and oceans, of melting ice and rising seas all points unequivocally to one thing: the world has warmed since the late 19th century (FAQ 2.1, Figure 2).
2000
Year
FAQ 2.1, Figure 2 | Multiple independent indicators of a changing global climate. Each line represents an independently derived estimate of change in the climate
element. In each panel all data sets have been normalized to a common period of record. A full detailing of which source data sets go into which panel is given in the
Supplementary Material 2.SM.5.
124
FAQ 2.2 | Have There Been Any Changes in Climate Extremes?

There is strong evidence that warming has lead to changes in temperature extremesincluding heat wavessince
the mid-20th century. Increases in heavy precipitation have probably also occurred over this time, but vary by
region. However, for other extremes, such as tropical cyclone frequency, we are less certain, except in some limited
regions, that there have been discernable changes over the observed record.
From heat waves to cold snaps or droughts to flooding rains, recording and analysing climate extremes poses
unique challenges, not just because these events are rare, but also because they invariably happen in conjunction
with disruptive conditions. Furthermore, there is no consistent definition in the scientific literature of what constitutes an extreme climatic event, and this complicates comparative global assessments.
Although, in an absolute sense, an extreme climate event will vary from place to placea hot day in the tropics,
for instance, may be a different temperature to a hot day in the mid-latitudesinternational efforts to monitor
extremes have highlighted some significant global changes.
Warm spells or heat waves, that is, periods containing consecutive extremely hot days or nights, have
also been assessed, but there are fewer studies of
heat wave characteristics than those that compare
changes in merely warm days or nights. Most global
land areas with available data have experienced more
heat waves since the middle of the 20th century. One
exception is the south-eastern USA, where heat wave
frequency and duration measures generally show
decreases. This has been associated with a so-called
warming hole in this region, where precipitation
has also increased and may be related to interactions
between the land and the atmosphere and long-term
variations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, for large regions, particularly in Africa and South
America, information on changes in heatwaves is
limited.
0.08
(a) Daily Minimum

Temperatures
Probability
0.06
FAQ
0.04
0.02
0.08
(b) Daily Maximum

Temperatures
0.06
Probability
For example, using consistent definitions for cold

(<10th percentile) and warm (>90th percentile) days
and nights it is found that warm days and nights have
increased and cold days and nights have decreased for
most regions of the globe; a few exceptions being central and eastern North America, and southern South
America but mostly only related to daytime temperatures. Those changes are generally most apparent in
minimum temperature extremes, for example, warm
nights. Data limitations make it difficult to establish
a causal link to increases in average temperatures,
but FAQ 2.2, Figure 1 indicates that daily global temperature extremes have indeed changed. Whether
these changes are simply associated with the average
of daily temperatures increasing (the dashed lines in
FAQ 2.2, Figure 1) or whether other changes in the
distribution of daytime and nighttime temperatures
have occurred is still under debate.
0.04
0.02
-15
-10
-5
0
10
Temperature Anomaly (C)
15
FAQ 2.2, Figure 1 | Distribution of (a) daily minimum and (b) daily maximum temperature anomalies relative to a 19611990 climatology for two periods: 19511980 (blue) and 19812010 (red) using the HadGHCND data set.
The shaded blue and red areas represent the coldest 10% and warmest 10%
respectively of (a) nights and (b) days during the 19511980 period. The darker
shading indicates by how much the number of the coldest days and nights has
reduced (dark blue) and by how much the number of the warmest days and
nights has increased (dark red) during the 19812010 period compared to the
19511980 period.
For regions such as Europe, where historical temperature reconstructions exist going back several hundreds of
years, indications are that some areas have experienced a disproportionate number of extreme heat waves in
recent decades. (continued on next page)
125
FAQ 2.2 (continued)
Changes in extremes for other climate variables are generally less coherent than those observed for temperature,
owing to data limitations and inconsistencies between studies, regions and/or seasons. However, increases in precipitation extremes, for example, are consistent with a warmer climate. Analyses of land areas with sufficient data
indicate increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in recent decades, but results vary
strongly between regions and seasons. For instance, evidence is most compelling for increases in heavy precipitation
in North America, Central America and Europe, but in some other regionssuch as southern Australia and western
Asiathere is evidence of decreases. Likewise, drought studies do not agree on the sign of the global trend, with
regional inconsistencies in trends also dependent on how droughts are defined. However, indications exist that
droughts have increased in some regions (e.g., the Mediterranean) and decreased in others (e.g., central North
America) since the middle of the 20th century.
Considering other extremes, such as tropical cyclones, the latest assessments show that due to problems with past
observing capabilities, it is difficult to make conclusive statements about long-term trends. There is very strong evidence, however, that storm activity has increased in the North Atlantic since the 1970s.
Over periods of a century or more, evidence suggests slight decreases in the frequency of tropical cyclones making
landfall in the North Atlantic and the South Pacific, once uncertainties in observing methods have been considered.
Little evidence exists of any longer-term trend in other ocean basins. For extratropical cyclones, a poleward shift is
evident in both hemispheres over the past 50 years, with further but limited evidence of a decrease in wind storm
frequency at mid-latitudes. Several studies suggest an increase in intensity, but data sampling issues hamper these
assessments.
FAQ
FAQ 2.2, Figure 2 summarizes some of the observed changes in climate extremes. Overall, the most robust global
changes in climate extremes are seen in measures of daily temperature, including to some extent, heat waves.
Precipitation extremes also appear to be increasing, but there is large spatial variability, and observed trends in
droughts are still uncertain except in a few regions. While robust increases have been seen in tropical cyclone frequency and activity in the North Atlantic since the 1970s, the reasons for this are still being debated. There is limited
evidence of changes in extremes associated with other climate variables since the mid-20th century.
Heavy Precipitation Events
Droughts Mediterranean,
West Africa
Droughts Central North America

Northwest Australia
Hot Days and Nights;

Warm Spells and Heat Waves
Cold Days and Nights

Strongest Tropical Cyclones North Atlantic
FAQ 2.2, Figure 2 | Trends in the frequency (or intensity) of various climate extremes (arrow direction denotes the sign of the change) since the middle of the 20th
century (except for North Atlantic storms where the period covered is from the 1970s).
126
FAQ 3.1 | Is the Ocean Warming?

Yes, the ocean is warming over many regions, depth ranges and time periods, although neither everywhere nor
constantly. The signature of warming emerges most clearly when considering global, or even ocean basin, averages
over time spans of a decade or more.
Ocean temperature at any given location can vary greatly with the seasons. It can also fluctuate substantially
from year to yearor even decade to decadebecause of variations in ocean currents and the exchange of heat
between ocean and atmosphere.
Ocean temperatures have been recorded for centuries, but it was not until around 1971 that measurements were
sufficiently comprehensive to estimate the average global temperature of the upper several hundred meters of
the ocean confidently for any given year. In fact, before the international Argo temperature/salinity profiling float
array first achieved worldwide coverage in 2005, the global average upper ocean temperature for any given year
was sensitive to the methodology used to estimate it.
Global mean upper ocean temperatures have increased over decadal time scales from 1971 to 2010. Despite large
uncertainty in most yearly means, this warming is a robust result. In the upper 75 m of the ocean, the global average
warming trend has been 0.11 [0.09 to 0.13]C per decade over this time. That trend generally lessens from the
surface to mid-depth, reducing to about 0.04C per decade by 200 m, and to less than 0.02C per decade by 500 m.
Temperature anomalies enter the subsurface ocean by paths in addition to mixing from above (FAQ3.1, Figure
1). Colderhence denserwaters from high latitudes can sink from the surface, then spread toward the equator
beneath warmer, lighter, waters at lower latitudes. At a few locationsthe northern North Atlantic Ocean and the
Southern Ocean around Antarcticaocean water is cooled so much that it sinks to great depths, even to the sea
floor. This water then spreads out to fill much of the rest of the deep ocean. As ocean surface waters warm, these
sinking waters also warm with time, increasing temperatures in the ocean interior much more quickly than would
downward mixing of surface heating alone.
FAQ
In the North Atlantic, the temperature of these deep waters varies from decade to decadesometimes warming,
sometimes coolingdepending on prevailing winter atmospheric patterns. Around Antarctica, bottom waters have
warmed detectably from about 19922005, perhaps due to the strengthening and southward shift of westerly
winds around the Southern Ocean over the last several decades. This warming signal in the deepest coldest bottom
waters of the world ocean is detectable, although it weakens northward in the Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Deep warming rates are generally less pronounced than ocean surface rates (around 0.03C per decade since the
1990s in the deep and bottom waters around Antarctica, and smaller in many other locations). However, they occur
over a large volume, so deep ocean warming contributes significantly to the total increase in ocean heat.
Estimates of historical changes in global average ocean temperature have become more accurate over the past
several years, largely thanks to the recognition, and reduction, of systematic measurement errors. By carefully
comparing less accurate measurements with sparser, more accurate ones at adjacent locations and similar times,
scientists have reduced some spurious instrumental biases in the historical record. These improvements revealed
that the global average ocean temperature has increased much more steadily from year to year than was reported
prior to 2008. Nevertheless, the global average warming rate may not be uniform in time. In some years, the ocean
appears to warm faster than average; in others, the warming rate seems to slow.
The oceans large mass and high heat capacity allow it to store huge amounts of energymore than 1000 times
that in the atmosphere for an equivalent increase in temperature. The Earth is absorbing more heat than it is
emitting back into space, and nearly all this excess heat is entering the oceans and being stored there. The ocean
has absorbed about 93% of the combined heat stored by warmed air, sea, and land, and melted ice between 1971
and 2010.
The oceans huge heat capacity and slow circulation lend it significant thermal inertia. It takes about a decade
for near-surface ocean temperatures to adjust in response to climate forcing (Section 12.5), such as changes in
greenhouse gas concentrations. Thus, if greenhouse gas concentrations could be held at present levels into the
future, increases in the Earths surface temperature would begin to slow within about a decade. However, deep
ocean temperature would continue to warm for centuries to millennia (Section 12.5), and thus sea levels would
continue to rise for centuries to millennia as well (Section 13.5). (continued on next page)
127
Pacific Ocean
West Atlantic Ocean
A n t a r ti c B
2500m
N o rt h A t l a n t i c D
ott o
2500m
Surface
ter
Surface
Wa
ee
FAQ 3.1 (continued)
m
W
Wa
te r
te
Antarctic B
ott o m
5000m
5000m
N
Equator
Arctic
Antarctica
Surface
500m
Antarctica
Equator
Arctic
Surface
S ub
FAQ
tropical
Waters
Subtropical W
ater
s
iate W
Intermed
1000m
ate
500m
ediate Water
erm
Int
1000m
Equator
Equator
FAQ 3.1, Figure 1 | Ocean heat uptake pathways. The ocean is stratified, with the coldest, densest water in the deep ocean (upper panels: use map at top for orientation). Cold Antarctic Bottom Water (dark blue) sinks around Antarctica then spreads northward along the ocean floor into the central Pacific (upper left panel: red arrows
fading to white indicate stronger warming of the bottom water most recently in contact with the ocean surface) and western Atlantic oceans (upper right panel), as well
as the Indian Ocean (not shown). Less cold, hence lighter, North Atlantic Deep Water (lighter blue) sinks in the northern North Atlantic Ocean (upper right panel: red
and blue arrow in the deep water indicates decadal warming and cooling), then spreads south above the Antarctic Bottom Water. Similarly, in the upper ocean (lower
left panel shows Pacific Ocean detail, lower right panel the Atlantic), cool Intermediate Waters (cyan) sink in sub-polar regions (red arrows fading to white indicating
warming with time), before spreading toward the equator under warmer Subtropical Waters (green), which in turn sink (red arrows fading to white indicate stronger
warming of the intermediate and subtropical waters most recently in contact with the surface) and spread toward the equator under tropical waters, the warmest and
lightest (orange) in all three oceans. Excess heat or cold entering at the ocean surface (top curvy red arrows) also mixes slowly downward (sub-surface wavy red arrows).
128
FAQ 3.2 | Is There Evidence for Changes in the Earths Water Cycle?
The Earths water cycle involves evaporation and precipitation of moisture at the Earths surface. Changes in the
atmospheres water vapour content provide strong evidence that the water cycle is already responding to a warming
climate. Further evidence comes from changes in the distribution of ocean salinity, which, due to a lack of long-term
observations of rain and evaporation over the global oceans, has become an important proxy rain gauge.
The water cycle is expected to intensify in a warmer climate, because warmer air can be moister: the atmosphere can
hold about 7% more water vapour for each degree Celsius of warming. Observations since the 1970s show increases
in surface and lower atmospheric water vapour (FAQ 3.2, Figure 1a), at a rate consistent with observed warming.
Moreover, evaporation and precipitation are projected to intensify in a warmer climate.
Recorded changes in ocean salinity in the last 50 years support that projection. Seawater contains both salt and
fresh water, and its salinity is a function of the weight of dissolved salts it contains. Because the total amount of
saltwhich comes from the weathering of rocksdoes not change over human time scales, seawaters salinity can
only be alteredover days or centuriesby the addition or removal of fresh water.
The atmosphere connects the oceans regions of net fresh water loss to those of fresh water gain by moving
evaporated water vapour from one place to another. The distribution of salinity at the ocean surface largely reflects
the spatial pattern of evaporation minus precipitation, runoff from land, and sea ice processes. There is some
shifting of the patterns relative to each other, because of the oceans currents.
FAQ
Subtropical waters are highly saline, because evaporation exceeds rainfall, whereas seawater at high latitudes
and in the tropicswhere more rain falls than evaporatesis less so (FAQ 3.2, Figure 1b, d). The Atlantic, the
saltiest ocean basin, loses more freshwater through evaporation than it gains from precipitation, while the Pacific
is nearly neutral (i.e., precipitation gain nearly balances evaporation loss), and the Southern Ocean (region around
Antarctica) is dominated by precipitation.
Changes in surface salinity and in the upper ocean have reinforced the mean salinity pattern. The evaporationdominated subtropical regions have become saltier, while the precipitation-dominated subpolar and tropical regions
have become fresher. When changes over the top 500 m are considered, the evaporation-dominated Atlantic has
become saltier, while the nearly neutral Pacific and precipitation-dominated Southern Ocean have become fresher
(FAQ 3.2, Figure 1c).
Observing changes in precipitation and evaporation directly and globally is difficult, because most of the exchange
of fresh water between the atmosphere and the surface happens over the 70% of the Earths surface covered
by ocean. Long-term precipitation records are available only from over the land, and there are no long-term
measurements of evaporation.
Land-based observations show precipitation increases in some regions, and decreases in others, making it difficult
to construct a globally integrated picture. Land-based observations have shown more extreme rainfall events, and
more flooding associated with earlier snow melt at high northern latitudes, but there is strong regionality in the
trends. Land-based observations are so far insufficient to provide evidence of changes in drought.
Ocean salinity, on the other hand, acts as a sensitive and effective rain gauge over the ocean. It naturally reflects
and smoothes out the difference between water gained by the ocean from precipitation, and water lost by the
ocean through evaporation, both of which are very patchy and episodic. Ocean salinity is also affected by water
runoff from the continents, and by the melting and freezing of sea ice or floating glacial ice. Fresh water added by
melting ice on land will change global-averaged salinity, but changes to date are too small to observe.
Data from the past 50 years show widespread salinity changes in the upper ocean, which are indicative of systematic
changes in precipitation and runoff minus evaporation, as illustrated in FAQ 3.2, Figure 1.
FAQ 3.2 is based on observations reported in Chapters 2 and 3, and on model analyses in Chapters 9 and 12.
129
FAQ 3.2 (continued)
1.6
0.8
0.0
0.8
(a) Trend in
total precipitable
water vapour
(1988-2010)
1.6
(kg m-2 per decade)
100
0
FAQ
(b) Mean
evaporation
minus
precipitation
100
(cm yr-1)
0.8
0.4
0.0
(c) Trend in
surface salinity
(1950-2000)
0.4
0.8
(PSS78 per decade)
37
35
(d) Mean
surface salinity
33
31
(PSS78)
FAQ 3.2, Figure 1 | Changes in sea surface salinity are related to the atmospheric patterns of evaporation minus precipitation (E P) and trends in total precipitable
water: (a) Linear trend (19882010) in total precipitable water (water vapor integrated from the Earths surface up through the entire atmosphere) (kg m2 per decade)
from satellite observations (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) (after Wentz et al., 2007) (blues: wetter; yellows: drier). (b) The 19792005 climatological mean net E
P (cm yr1) from meteorological reanalysis (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research; Kalnay et al., 1996) (reds: net
evaporation; blues: net precipitation). (c) Trend (19502000) in surface salinity (PSS78 per 50 years) (after Durack and Wijffels, 2010) (blues freshening; yellows-reds
saltier). (d) The climatological-mean surface salinity (PSS78) (blues: <35; yellowsreds: >35).
130
FAQ 3.3 | How Does Anthropogenic Ocean Acidification Relate to Climate Change?
Both anthropogenic climate change and anthropogenic ocean acidification are caused by increasing carbon dioxide
concentrations in the atmosphere. Rising levels of carbon dioxide (CO2), along with other greenhouse gases, indirectly alter the climate system by trapping heat as it is reflected back from the Earths surface. Anthropogenic ocean
acidification is a direct consequence of rising CO2 concentrations as seawater currently absorbs about 30% of the
anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere.
Ocean acidification refers to a reduction in pH over an extended period, typically decades or longer, caused primarily by the uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere. pH is a dimensionless measure of acidity. Ocean acidification describes
the direction of pH change rather than the end point; that is, ocean pH is decreasing but is not expected to become
acidic (pH < 7). Ocean acidification can also be caused by other chemical additions or subtractions from the oceans
that are natural (e.g., increased volcanic activity, methane hydrate releases, long-term changes in net respiration)
or human-induced (e.g., release of nitrogen and sulphur compounds into the atmosphere). Anthropogenic ocean
acidification refers to the component of pH reduction that is caused by human activity.
Since about 1750, the release of CO2 from industrial and agricultural activities has resulted in global average atmospheric CO2 concentrations that have increased from 278 to 390.5 ppm in 2011. The atmospheric concentration of
CO2 is now higher than experienced on the Earth for at least the last 800,000 years and is expected to continue to
rise because of our dependence on fossil fuels for energy. To date, the oceans have absorbed approximately 155
30 PgC from the atmosphere, which corresponds to roughly one-fourth of the total amount of CO2 emitted (555
85 PgC) by human activities since preindustrial times. This natural process of absorption has significantly reduced
the greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere and minimized some of the impacts of global warming. However, the
oceans uptake of CO2 is having a significant impact on the chemistry of seawater. The average pH of ocean surface
waters has already fallen by about 0.1 units, from about 8.2 to 8.1 since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
Estimates of projected future atmospheric and oceanic CO2 concentrations indicate that, by the end of this century,
the average surface ocean pH could be 0.2 to 0.4 lower than it is today. The pH scale is logarithmic, so a change of
1 unit corresponds to a 10-fold change in hydrogen ion concentration.
FAQ
When atmospheric CO2 exchanges across the airsea interface it reacts with seawater through a series of four chemical reactions that increase the concentrations of the carbon species: dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2(aq)), carbonic acid
(H2CO3) and bicarbonate (HCO3):
CO2(atmos) CO2(aq) (1)
CO2(aq) + H2O H2CO3 (2)
H2CO3 H+ + HCO3 (3)
HCO3 H+ + CO32 (4)
Hydrogen ions (H+) are produced by these reactions. This increase in the oceans hydrogen ion concentration corresponds to a reduction in pH, or an increase in acidity. Under normal seawater conditions, more than 99.99% of
the hydrogen ions that are produced will combine with carbonate ion (CO32 ) to produce additional HCO3. Thus,
the addition of anthropogenic CO2 into the oceans lowers the pH and consumes carbonate ion. These reactions are
fully reversible and the basic thermodynamics of these reactions in seawater are well known, such that at a pH of
approximately 8.1 approximately 90% the carbon is in the form of bicarbonate ion, 9% in the form of carbonate
ion, and only about 1% of the carbon is in the form of dissolved CO2. Results from laboratory, field, and modeling
studies, as well as evidence from the geological record, clearly indicate that marine ecosystems are highly susceptible to the increases in oceanic CO2 and the corresponding decreases in pH and carbonate ion.
Climate change and anthropogenic ocean acidification do not act independently. Although the CO2 that is taken up
by the ocean does not contribute to greenhouse warming, ocean warming reduces the solubility of carbon dioxide
in seawater; and thus reduces the amount of CO2 the oceans can absorb from the atmosphere. For example, under
doubled preindustrial CO2 concentrations and a 2C temperature increase, seawater absorbs about 10% less CO2
(10% less total carbon, CT) than it would with no temperature increase (compare columns 4 and 6 in Table 1), but
the pH remains almost unchanged. Thus, a warmer ocean has less capacity to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, yet
still experiences ocean acidification. The reason for this is that bicarbonate is converted to carbonate in a warmer
ocean, releasing a hydrogen ion thus stabilizing the pH. (continued on next page)
131
FAQ 3.3 (continued)

400
160W
CO2 Time Series in the North Pacific
158W
8.30
156W
23N
Station Aloha 22N

20N
Station Mauna Loa
19N
8.20
350
pH
pCO2 (atm) CO2(ppm)
8.25
21N
375
8.15
325
8.10
300
8.05
275
8.00
1990 1992 1994 1998 1996 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Year
FAQ 3.3, Figure 1 | A smoothed time series of atmospheric CO2 mole fraction (in ppm) at the atmospheric Mauna Loa Observatory (top red line), surface ocean
partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2; middle blue line) and surface ocean pH (bottom green line) at Station ALOHA in the subtropical North Pacific north of Hawaii for the
period from19902011 (after Doney et al., 2009; data from Dore et al., 2009).The results indicate that the surface ocean pCO2 trend is generally consistent with the
atmospheric increase but is more variable due to large-scale interannual variability of oceanic processes.
FAQ
FAQ 3.3, Table 1 | Oceanic pH and carbon system parameter changes in surface water for a CO2 doubling from the preindustrial atmosphere without and with a
2C warminga.
Parameter
Pre-industrial
(280 ppmv)
20C
2 Pre-industrial
(560 ppmv)
20C
(% change relative
to pre-industrial)
2 Pre-industrial
(560 ppmv)
22C
(% change relative
to pre-industrial)
pH
8.1714
7.9202
7.9207
H+ (mol kg1)
6.739e9
1.202e8
(78.4)
1.200e8
(78.1)
CO2(aq) (mol kg1)
9.10
18.10
(98.9)
17.2
(89.0)
HCO3 (mol kg1)
1723.4
1932.8
(12.15)
1910.4
(10.9)
228.3
143.6
(-37.1)
152.9
(33.0)
1960.8
2094.5
(6.82)
2080.5
(6.10)
CO
2
3
(mol kg )
CT (mol kg1)
Notes:
a CO
2
2(aq) = dissolved CO2, H2CO3 = carbonic acid, HCO3 = bicarbonate, CO3 = carbonate, CT = total carbon = CO2(aq) + HCO3 + CO3 ).
132
FAQ 4.1 | How Is Sea Ice Changing in the Arctic and Antarctic?
The sea ice covers on the Arctic Ocean and on the Southern Ocean around Antarctica have quite different characteristics, and are showing different changes with time. Over the past 34 years (19792012), there has been a downward trend of 3.8% per decade in the annual average extent of sea ice in the Arctic. The average winter thickness
of Arctic Ocean sea ice has thinned by approximately 1.8 m between 1978 and 2008, and the total volume (mass)
of Arctic sea ice has decreased at all times of year. The more rapid decrease in the extent of sea ice at the summer
minimum is a consequence of these trends. In contrast, over the same 34-year period, the total extent of Antarctic
sea ice shows a small increase of 1.5% per decade, but there are strong regional differences in the changes around
the Antarctic. Measurements of Antarctic sea ice thickness are too few to be able to judge whether its total volume
(mass) is decreasing, steady, or increasing.
A large part of the total Arctic sea ice cover lies above 60N (FAQ 4.1, Figure 1) and is surrounded by land to the
south with openings to the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and the Bering, Barents and Greenland seas. Some of the
ice within the Arctic Basin survives for several seasons, growing in thickness by freezing of seawater at the base and
by deformation (ridging and rafting). Seasonal sea ice grows to only ~2 m in thickness but sea ice that is more than
1 year old (perennial ice) can be several metres thicker. Arctic sea ice drifts within the basin, driven by wind and
ocean currents: the mean drift pattern is dominated by a clockwise circulation pattern in the western Arctic and a
Transpolar Drift Stream that transports Siberian sea ice across the Arctic and exports it from the basin through the
Fram Strait.
Satellites with the capability to distinguish ice and open water have provided a picture of the sea ice cover changes.
Since 1979, the annual average extent of ice in the Arctic has decreased by 3.8% per decade. The decline in extent
at the end of summer (in late September) has been even greater at 11% per decade, reaching a record minimum in
2012. The decadal average extent of the September minimum Arctic ice cover has decreased for each decade since
satellite records began. Submarine and satellite records suggest that the thickness of Arctic ice, and hence the total
volume, is also decreasing. Changes in the relative amounts of perennial and seasonal ice are contributing to the
reduction in ice volume. Over the 34-year record, approximately 17% of this type of sea ice per decade has been lost
to melt and export out of the basin since 1979 and 40% since 1999. Although the area of Arctic sea ice coverage can
fluctuate from year to year because of variable seasonal production, the proportion of thick perennial ice, and the
total sea ice volume, can recover only slowly.
FAQ
Unlike the Arctic, the sea ice cover around Antarctica is constrained to latitudes north of 78S because of the presence of the continental land mass. The Antarctic sea ice cover is largely seasonal, with an average thickness of
only ~1 m at the time of maximum extent in September. Only a small fraction of the ice cover survives the summer
minimum in February, and very little Antarctic sea ice is more than 2 years old. The ice edge is exposed to the open
ocean and the snowfall rate over Antarctic sea ice is higher than in the Arctic. When the snow load from snowfall is
sufficient to depress the ice surface below sea level, seawater infiltrates the base of the snow pack and snow-ice is
formed when the resultant slush freezes. Consequently, snow-to-ice conversion (as well as basal freezing as in the
Arctic) contributes to the seasonal growth in ice thickness and total ice volume in the Antarctic. Snow-ice formation is sensitive to changes in precipitation and thus changes in regional climate. The consequence of changes in
precipitation on Antarctic sea ice thickness and volume remains a focus for research.
Unconstrained by land boundaries, the latitudinal extent of the Antarctic sea ice cover is highly variable. Near the
Antarctic coast, sea ice drift is predominantly from east to west, but further north, it is from west to east and highly
divergent. Distinct clockwise circulation patterns that transport ice northward can be found in the Weddell and
Ross seas, while the circulation is more variable around East Antarctica. The northward extent of the sea ice cover is
controlled in part by the divergent drift that is conducive in winter months to new ice formation in persistent open
water areas (polynyas) along the coastlines. These zones of ice formation result in saltier and thus denser ocean
water and become one of the primary sources of the deepest water found in the global oceans.
Over the same 34-year satellite record, the annual extent of sea ice in the Antarctic increased at about 1.5% per
decade. However, there are regional differences in trends, with decreases seen in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen
seas, but a larger increase in sea ice extent in the Ross Sea that dominates the overall trend. Whether the smaller
overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent is meaningful as an indicator of climate is uncertain because the extent
133
FAQ 4.1 (continued)
varies so much from year to year and from place to place around the continent. Results from a recent study suggest
that these contrasting trends in ice coverage may be due to trends in regional wind speed and patterns. Without
better ice thickness and ice volume estimates, it is difficult to characterize how Antarctic sea ice cover is responding
to changing climate, or which climate parameters are most influential.
There are large differences in the physical environment and processes that affect the state of Arctic and Antarctic
sea ice cover and contribute to their dissimilar responses to climate change. The long, and unbroken, record of
satellite observations have provided a clear picture of the decline of the Arctic sea ice cover, but available evidence
precludes us from making robust statements about overall changes in Antarctic sea ice and their causes.
+1.3%
Arctic
ell S
Siberia
+7.3%
Antarctic
d
Wed
ing
Ber a
Se
ea
+3.2%
2.2%
Barents
Sea
FAQ
4.6%
Greenland
2.5%
60N
9.3%
6.1%
d
en an
haus as
s
g
in
e
Bell ndsen S
Amu
Alaska
4.3%
7.0%
0.0
2000
2010
10 km per day
1.0
0.0
1.0
-3.8% per decade
+1.3%
ea
+4.3%
Extent anomalies
(106 km2)
Extent anomalies
(106 km2)
1.0
1990
60S
Ross
S
5 km per day
1.0
Antarctica
+1.5% per decade

1990
2000
2010
FAQ 4.1, Figure 1 | The mean circulation pattern of sea ice and the decadal trends (%) in annual anomalies in ice extent (i.e., after removal of the seasonal
cycle), in different sectors of the Arctic and Antarctic. Arrows show the average direction and magnitude of ice drift. The average sea ice cover for the period
1979 through 2012, from satellite observations, at maximum (minimum) extent is shown as orange (grey) shading.
134
FAQ 4.2 | Are Glaciers in Mountain Regions Disappearing?

In many mountain ranges around the world, glaciers are disappearing in response to the atmospheric temperature
increases of past decades. Disappearing glaciers have been reported in the Canadian Arctic and Rocky Mountains;
the Andes; Patagonia; the European Alps; the Tien Shan; tropical mountains in South America, Africa and Asia and
elsewhere. In these regions, more than 600 glaciers have disappeared over the past decades. Even if there is no
further warming, many more glaciers will disappear. It is also likely that some mountain ranges will lose most, if not
all, of their glaciers.
In all mountain regions where glaciers exist today, glacier volume has decreased considerably over the past 150
years. Over that time, many small glaciers have disappeared. With some local exceptions, glacier shrinkage (area
and volume reduction) was globally widespread already and particularly strong during the 1940s and since the
1980s. However, there were also phases of relative stability during the 1890s, 1920s and 1970s, as indicated by longterm measurements of length changes and by modelling of mass balance. Conventional in situ measurementsand
increasingly, airborne and satellite measurementsoffer robust evidence in most glacierized regions that the rate
of reduction in glacier area was higher over the past two decades than previously, and that glaciers continue to
shrink. In a few regions, however, individual glaciers are behaving differently and have advanced while most others
were in retreat (e.g., on the coasts of New Zealand, Norway and Southern Patagonia (Chile), or in the Karakoram
range in Asia). In general, these advances are the result of special topographic and/or climate conditions (e.g.,
increased precipitation).
It can take several decades for a glacier to adjust its extent to an instantaneous change in climate, so most glaciers
are currently larger than they would be if they were in balance with current climate. Because the time required for
the adjustment increases with glacier size, larger glaciers will continue to shrink over the next few decades, even if
temperatures stabilise. Smaller glaciers will also continue to shrink, but they will adjust their extent faster and many
will ultimately disappear entirely.
FAQ
Many factors influence the future development of each glacier, and whether it will disappear: for instance, its size,
slope, elevation range, distribution of area with elevation, and its surface characteristics (e.g., the amount of debris
cover). These factors vary substantially from region to region, and also between neighbouring glaciers. External factors, such as the surrounding topography and the climatic regime, are also important for future glacier evolution.
Over shorter time scales (one or two decades), each glacier responds to climate change individually and differently
in detail.
Over periods longer than about 50 years, the response is more coherent and less dependent on local environmental
details, which means that long-term trends in glacier development can be well modelled. Such models are built
on an understanding of basic physical principles. For example, an increase in local mean air temperature, with no
change in precipitation, will cause an upward shift of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA; see Glossary) by about 150
m for each degree Celsius of atmospheric warming. Such an upward shift and its consequences for glaciers of different size and elevation range are illustrated in FAQ 4.2, Figure 1.
Initially, all glaciers have an accumulation area (white) above and an ablation area (light blue) below the ELA
(FAQ 4.2, Figure 1a). As the ELA shifts upwards, the accumulation area shrinks and the ablation area expands, thus
increasing the area over which ice is lost through melt (FAQ 4.2, Figure 1b). This imbalance results in an overall loss
of ice. After several years, the glacier front retreats, and the ablation area shrinks until the glacier has adjusted its
extent to the new climate (FAQ 4.2, Figure 1c). Where climate change is sufficiently strong to raise the ELA permanently above the glaciers highest point (FAQ 4.2, Figure 1b, right) the glacier will eventually disappear entirely
(FAQ 4.2, Figure 1c, right). Higher glaciers, which retain their accumulation areas, will shrink but not disappear (FAQ
4.2, Figure 1c, left and middle). A large valley glacier might lose much of its tongue, probably leaving a lake in its
place (FAQ 4.2, Figure 1c, left). Besides air temperature, changes in the quantity and seasonality of precipitation
influence the shift of the ELA as well. Glacier dynamics (e.g., flow speed) also plays a role, but is not considered in
this simplified scheme.
Many observations have confirmed that different glacier types do respond differently to recent climate change.
For example, the flat, low-lying tongues of large valley glaciers (such as in Alaska, Canada or the Alps) currently
show the strongest mass losses, largely independent of aspect, shading or debris cover. This type of glacier is slow in
135
FAQ 4.2 (continued)
adjusting its extent to new climatic conditions

and reacts mainly by thinning without substantial terminus retreat. In contrast, smaller mountain glaciers, with fairly constant slopes, adjust
more quickly to the new climate by changing
the size of their ablation area more rapidly
(FAQ 4.2, Figure 1c, middle).
The long-term response of most glacier types
can be determined very well with the approach
illustrated in FAQ 4.2, Figure 1. However, modelling short-term glacier response, or the longterm response of more complex glacier types
(e.g., those that are heavily debris-covered, fed
by avalanche snow, have a disconnected accumulation area, are of surging type, or calve into
water), is difficult. These cases require detailed
knowledge of other glacier characteristics, such
as mass balance, ice thickness distribution, and
internal hydraulics. For the majority of glaciers
worldwide, such data are unavailable, and
their response to climate change can thus only
be approximated with the simplified scheme
shown in FAQ 4.2, Figure 1.
FAQ
The KarakoramHimalaya mountain range, for

instance, has a large variety of glacier types
and climatic conditions, and glacier characteristics are still only poorly known. This makes
determining their future evolution particularly
uncertain. However, gaps in knowledge are
expected to decrease substantially in coming
years, thanks to increased use of satellite data
(e.g., to compile glacier inventories or derive
flow velocities) and extension of the groundbased measurement network.
a) Before climate change

Valley Glacier
Mountain Glacier
Small Glacier
ELA1
b) After climate change but before glacier readjustment
ELA2
ELA1
c) After readjustment to climate change
ELA2
FAQ 4.2, Figure 1 | Schematic of three types of glaciers located at different elevations,
and their response to an upward shift of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA). (a) For a given
climate, the ELA has a specific altitude (ELA1), and all glaciers have a specific size. (b) Due
to a temperature increase, the ELA shifts upwards to a new altitude (ELA2), initially resulting
in reduced accumulation and larger ablation areas for all glaciers. (c) After glacier size has
adjusted to the new ELA, the valley glacier (left) has lost its tongue and the small glacier
(right) has disappeared entirely.
In summary, the fate of glaciers will be variable,

depending on both their specific characteristics
and future climate conditions. More glaciers
will disappear; others will lose most of their low-lying portions and others might not change substantially. Where
the ELA is already above the highest elevation on a particular glacier, that glacier is destined to disappear entirely
unless climate cools. Similarly, all glaciers will disappear in those regions where the ELA rises above their highest
elevation in the future.
136
FAQ 5.1 | Is the Sun a Major Driver of Recent Changes in Climate?

Total solar irradiance (TSI, Chapter 8) is a measure of the total energy received from the sun at the top of the atmosphere. It varies over a wide range of time scales, from billions of years to just a few days, though variations have
been relatively small over the past 140 years. Changes in solar irradiance are an important driver of climate variability (Chapter 1; Figure 1.1) along with volcanic emissions and anthropogenic factors. As such, they help explain
the observed change in global surface temperatures during the instrumental period (FAQ 5.1, Figure 1; Chapter 10)
and over the last millennium. While solar variability may have had a discernible contribution to changes in global
surface temperature in the early 20th century, it cannot explain the observed increase since TSI started to be measured directly by satellites in the late 1970s (Chapters 8, 10).
The Suns core is a massive nuclear fusion reactor that converts hydrogen into helium. This process produces energy
that radiates throughout the solar system as electromagnetic radiation. The amount of energy striking the top of
Earths atmosphere varies depending on the generation and emission of electromagnetic energy by the Sun and on
the Earths orbital path around the Sun.
Satellite-based instruments have directly measured TSI since 1978, and indicate that on average, ~1361 W m2 reaches the top of the Earths atmosphere. Parts of the Earths surface and air pollution and clouds in the atmosphere act
as a mirror and reflect about 30% of this power back into space. Higher levels of TSI are recorded when the Sun is
more active. Irradiance variations follow the roughly 11-year sunspot cycle: during the last cycles, TSI values fluctuated by an average of around 0.1%.
FAQ
For pre-satellite times, TSI variations have to be estimated from sunspot numbers (back to 1610), or from radioisotopes that are formed in the atmosphere, and archived in polar ice and tree rings. Distinct 50- to 100-year periods
of very low solar activitysuch as the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715are commonly referred to as
grand solar minima. Most estimates of TSI changes between the Maunder Minimum and the present day are in the
order of 0.1%, similar to the amplitude of the 11-year variability.
How can solar variability help explain the observed global surface temperature record back to 1870? To answer
this question, it is important to understand that other climate drivers are involved, each producing characteristic
patterns of regional climate responses. However, it is the combination of them all that causes the observed climate
change. Solar variability and volcanic eruptions are natural factors. Anthropogenic (human-produced) factors, on
the other hand, include changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, and emissions of visible air pollution
(aerosols) and other substances from human activities. Internal variability refers to fluctuations within the climate
system, for example, due to weather variability or phenomena like the El Nio-Southern Oscillation.
The relative contributions of these natural and anthropogenic factors change with time. FAQ 5.1, Figure 1 illustrates
those contributions based on a very simple calculation, in which the mean global surface temperature variation represents the sum of four components linearly related to solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic forcing, and to internal
variability. Global surface temperature has increased by approximately 0.8C from 1870 to 2010 (FAQ 5.1, Figure
1a). However, this increase has not been uniform: at times, factors that cool the Earths surfacevolcanic eruptions,
reduced solar activity, most anthropogenic aerosol emissionshave outweighed those factors that warm it, such
as greenhouse gases, and the variability generated within the climate system has caused further fluctuations unrelated to external influences.
The solar contribution to the record of global surface temperature change is dominated by the 11-year solar cycle,
which can explain global temperature fluctuations up to approximately 0.1C between minima and maxima (FAQ
5.1, Figure 1b). A long-term increasing trend in solar activity in the early 20th century may have augmented the
warming recorded during this interval, together with internal variability, greenhouse gas increases and a hiatus
in volcanism. However, it cannot explain the observed increase since the late 1970s, and there was even a slight
decreasing trend of TSI from 1986 to 2008 (Chapters 8 and 10).
Volcanic eruptions contribute to global surface temperature change by episodically injecting aerosols into the
atmosphere, which cool the Earths surface (FAQ 5.1, Figure 1c). Large volcanic eruptions, such as the eruption of
Mt. Pinatubo in 1991, can cool the surface by around 0.1C to 0.3C for up to three years. (continued on next page)
137
FAQ 5.1 (continued)
The most important component of internal climate variability is the El Nio Southern Oscillation,
which has a major effect on year-to-year variations
of tropical and global mean temperature (FAQ 5.1,
Figure 1d). Relatively high annual temperatures
have been encountered during El Nio events, such
as in 19971998.
Anomaly (C)
The variability of observed global surface temperatures from 1870 to 2010 (Figure 1a) reflects the combined influences of natural (solar, volcanic, internal;
FAQ 5.1, Figure 1bd) factors, superimposed on the
multi-decadal warming trend from anthropogenic
factors (FAQ 5.1, Figure 1e).
Anomaly (C)
Finally, a decrease in solar activity during the past

solar minimum a few years ago (FAQ 5.1, Figure
1b) raises the question of its future influence on
climate. Despite uncertainties in future solar activity, there is high confidence that the effects of solar
activity within the range of grand solar maxima and
minima will be much smaller than the changes due
to anthropogenic effects.
138
0.4
0.0
-0.4
0.2
0.0
Anomaly (C)
(b) Solar Component
0.1
0.0
(c) Volcanic Component
-0.1
-0.2
0.2
Anomaly (C)
At the regional scale, changes in solar activity have

been related to changes in surface climate and
atmospheric circulation in the Indo-Pacific, Northern Asia and North Atlantic areas. The mechanisms
that amplify the regional effects of the relatively
small fluctuations of TSI in the roughly 11-year solar
cycle involve dynamical interactions between the
upper and the lower atmosphere, or between the
ocean sea surface temperature and atmosphere,
and have little effect on global mean temperatures
(see Box 10.2).
0.8
-0.8
(d) Internal Variability
0.0
-0.2
Anomaly (C)
Prior to 1870, when anthropogenic emissions

of greenhouse gases and aerosols were smaller,
changes in solar and volcanic activity and internal
variability played a more important role, although
the specific contributions of these individual factors to global surface temperatures are less certain.
Solar minima lasting several decades have often
been associated with cold conditions. However,
these periods are often also affected by volcanic
eruptions, making it difficult to quantify the solar
contribution.
FAQ
(a) Global Surface Temperature
(e) Anthropogenic Component
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1880
1900
1920
1940
Year
1960
1980
2000
FAQ 5.1, Figure 1 | Global surface temperature anomalies from 1870 to 2010,
and the natural (solar, volcanic, and internal) and anthropogenic factors that
influence them. (a) Global surface temperature record (18702010) relative to
the average global surface temperature for 19611990 (black line). A model
of global surface temperature change (a: red line) produced using the sum of
the impacts on temperature of natural (b, c, d) and anthropogenic factors (e).
(b) Estimated temperature response to solar forcing. (c) Estimated temperature
response to volcanic eruptions. (d) Estimated temperature variability due to
internal variability, here related to the El Nio-Southern Oscillation. (e) Estimated temperature response to anthropogenic forcing, consisting of a warming component from greenhouse gases, and a cooling component from most
aerosols.
FAQ 5.2 | How Unusual is the Current Sea Level Rate of Change?
The rate of mean global sea level changeaveraging 1.7 0.2 mm yr1 for the entire 20th century and between
2.8 and 3.6 mm yr1 since 1993 (Chapter 13)is unusual in the context of centennial-scale variations of the last two
millennia. However, much more rapid rates of sea level change occurred during past periods of rapid ice sheet disintegration, such as transitions between glacial and interglacial periods. Exceptional tectonic effects can also drive
very rapid local sea level changes, with local rates exceeding the current global rates of change.
Sea level is commonly thought of as the point where the ocean meets the land. Earth scientists define sea level as a
measure of the position of the sea surface relative to the land, both of which may be moving relative to the center
of the Earth. A measure of sea level therefore reflects a combination of geophysical and climate factors. Geophysical factors affecting sea level include land subsidence or uplift and glacial isostatic adjustmentsthe earthocean
systems response to changes in mass distribution on the Earth, specifically ocean water and land ice.
Climate influences include variations in ocean temperatures, which cause sea water to expand or contract, changes
in the volume of glaciers and ice sheets, and shifts in ocean currents. Local and regional changes in these climate
and geophysical factors produce significant deviations from the global estimate of the mean rate of sea level
change. For example, local sea level is falling at a rate approaching 10 mm yr1 along the northern Swedish coast
(Gulf of Bothnia), due to ongoing uplift caused by continental ice that melted after the last glacial period. In contrast, local sea level rose at a rate of ~20 mm yr1 from 1960 to 2005 south of Bangkok, mainly in response to subsidence due to ground water extraction.
FAQ
For the past ~150 years, sea level change has been recorded at tide gauge stations, and for the past ~20 years, with
satellite altimeters. Results of these two data sets are consistent for the overlapping period. The globally averaged
rate of sea level rise of ~1.7 0.2 mm yr1 over the 20th centuryand about twice that over the past two decades
may seem small compared with observations of wave and tidal oscillations around the globe that can be orders of
magnitude larger. However, if these rates persist over long time intervals, the magnitude carries important consequences for heavily populated, low-lying coastal regions, where even a small increase in sea level can inundate
large land areas.
Prior to the instrumental period, local rates of sea level change are estimated from indirect measures recorded
in sedimentary, fossil and archaeological archives. These proxy records are spatially limited and reflect both local
and global conditions. Reconstruction of a global signal is strengthened, though, when individual proxy records
from widely different environmental settings converge on a common signal. It is important to note that geologic
archivesparticularly those before about 20,000 years agomost commonly only capture millennial-scale changes
in sea level. Estimates of century-scale rates of sea level change are therefore based on millennial-scale information,
but it must be recognised that such data do not necessarily preclude more rapid rates of century-scale changes in
sea level.
Sea level reconstructions for the last two millennia offer an opportunity to use proxy records to overlap with, and
extend beyond, the instrumental period. A recent example comes from salt-marsh deposits on the Atlantic Coast
of the United States, combined with sea level reconstructions based on tide-gauge data and model predictions, to
document an average rate of sea level change since the late 19th century of 2.1 0.2 mm yr1. This century-long rise
exceeds any other century-scale change rate in the entire 2000-year record for this same section of coast.
On longer time scales, much larger rates and amplitudes of sea level changes have sometimes been encountered.
Glacialinterglacial climate cycles over the past 500,000 years resulted in global sea level changes of up to about 120
to 140 m. Much of this sea level change occurred in 10,000 to 15,000 years, during the transition from a full glacial
period to an interglacial period, at average rates of 10 to 15 mm yr1. These high rates are only sustainable when
the Earth is emerging from periods of extreme glaciation, when large ice sheets contact the oceans. For example,
during the transition from the last glacial maximum (about 21,000 years ago) to the present interglacial (Holocene,
last 11,650 years), fossil coral reef deposits indicate that global sea level rose abruptly by 14 to 18 m in less than 500
years. This event is known as Meltwater Pulse 1A, in which the rate of sea level rise reached more than 40 mm yr1.
These examples from longer time scales indicate rates of sea level change greater than observed today, but it should
be remembered that they all occurred in special circumstances: at times of transition from full glacial to interglacial condition; at locations where the long-term after-effects of these transitions are still occurring; at locations of
139
FAQ 5.2 (continued)
major tectonic upheavals or in major deltas, where subsidence due to sediment compactionsometimes amplified
by ground-fluid extractiondominates.
The instrumental and geologic record support the conclusion that the current rate of mean global sea level change
is unusual relative to that observed and/or estimated over the last two millennia. Higher rates have been observed
in the geological record, especially during times of transition between glacial and interglacial periods.
(a)
60
22,000 to 7,000
years ago
14,600
years ago
(b)
Rate of sea-level change (mm yr-1)
Rate of sea-level change (mm yr-1)
50
FAQ
40
30
20
10
2,000 years ago

to 1899
Average
Glacial-to-Interglacial
Meltwater
Pulse 1A
1900-1999
1993-2012
4
3
2
1
0
-1
Last 2
Millennia
Last 2
Millennia
20th Century
20th Century
Satellite
Altimetry Era
Satellite
Altimetry Era
-10
FAQ 5.2, Figure 1 | (a) Estimates of the average rate of global mean sea level change (in mm yr1) for five selected time intervals: last glacial-to-interglacial transition;
Meltwater Pulse 1A; last 2 millennia; 20th century; satellite altimetry era (19932012). Blue columns denote time intervals of transition from a glacial to an interglacial
period, whereas orange columns denote the current interglacial period. Black bars indicate the range of likely values of the average rate of global mean sea level
change. Note the overall higher rates of global mean sea level change characteristic of times of transition between glacial and interglacial periods. (b) Expanded view
of the rate of global mean sea level change during three time intervals of the present interglacial.
140
FAQ 6.1 | Could Rapid Release of Methane and Carbon Dioxide from Thawing Permafrost or
Ocean Warming Substantially Increase Warming?
Permafrost is permanently frozen ground, mainly found in the high latitudes of the Arctic. Permafrost, including
the sub-sea permafrost on the shallow shelves of the Arctic Ocean, contains old organic carbon deposits. Some are
relicts from the last glaciation, and hold at least twice the amount of carbon currently present in the atmosphere as
carbon dioxide (CO2). Should a sizeable fraction of this carbon be released as methane and CO2, it would increase
atmospheric concentrations, which would lead to higher atmospheric temperatures. That in turn would cause yet
more methane and CO2 to be released, creating a positive feedback, which would further amplify global warming.
The Arctic domain presently represents a net sink of CO2sequestering around 0.4 0.4 PgC yr1 in growing vegetation representing about 10% of the current global land sink. It is also a modest source of methane (CH4): between
15 and 50 Tg(CH4) yr1 are emitted mostly from seasonally unfrozen wetlands corresponding to about 10% of the
global wetland methane source. There is no clear evidence yet that thawing contributes significantly to the current
global budgets of these two greenhouse gases. However, under sustained Arctic warming, modelling studies and
expert judgments indicate with medium agreement that a potential combined release totalling up to 350 PgC as
CO2 equivalent could occur by the year 2100.
Permafrost soils on land, and in ocean shelves, contain large pools of organic carbon, which must be
thawed and decomposed by microbes before it can
be releasedmostly as CO2. Where oxygen is limited,
as in waterlogged soils, some microbes also produce
methane.
On land, permafrost is overlain by a surface active
layer, which thaws during summer and forms part of
the tundra ecosystem. If spring and summer temperatures become warmer on average, the active layer will
thicken, making more organic carbon available for
microbial decomposition. However, warmer summers
would also result in greater uptake of carbon dioxide by Arctic vegetation through photosynthesis. That
means the net Arctic carbon balance is a delicate one
between enhanced uptake and enhanced release of
carbon.
CO2 uptake by
land vegetation
0.3-0.6 PgC yr-1
FAQ
CH4 from lakes and bogs

31-100 TgCH4 yr-1
CO2 uptake
24-100 TgC yr-1
CH4 outgassing
1-12 TgCH4 yr-1
C transport by rivers
~80 TgC yr-1
Flux to sediment
~8 TgC yr-1
Arctic ocean floor

CH4 hydrates
30-170 PgCH4
Permafrost soils
1500-1850 PgC
CH4 hydrates
3-130 PgCH4
Arctic ocean shelves

and shelf slopes
CH4 hydrates 2-65 PgCH4
Hydrological conditions during the summer thaw are

Flux to sediment
also important. The melting of bodies of excess ground
~2 TgC yr-1
ice may create standing water conditions in pools and
lakes, where lack of oxygen will induce methane proFAQ 6.1, Figure 1 | A simplified graph of current major carbon pools and flows
duction. The complexity of Arctic landscapes under
in the Arctic domain, including permafrost on land, continental shelves and ocean.
climate warming means we have low confidence in
(Adapted from McGuire et al., 2009; and Tarnocai et al., 2009.) TgC = 1012 gC,
and PgC = 1015 gC.
which of these different processes might dominate on
a regional scale. Heat diffusion and permafrost melting takes timein fact, the deeper Arctic permafrost can be seen as a relict of the last glaciation, which is still slowly
erodingso any significant loss of permafrost soil carbon will happen over long time scales.
Given enough oxygen, decomposition of organic matter in soil is accompanied by the release of heat by microbes
(similar to compost), which, during summer, might stimulate further permafrost thaw. Depending on carbon and
ice content of the permafrost, and the hydrological regime, this mechanism could, under warming, trigger relatively fast local permafrost degradation. (continued on next page)
141
FAQ 6.1 (continued)
Modelling studies of permafrost dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions indicate a relatively slow positive feedback, on time scales of hundreds of years. Until the year 2100, up to 250 PgC could be released as CO2, and up to
5 Pg as CH4. Given methanes stronger greenhouse warming potential, that corresponds to a further 100 PgC of
equivalent CO2 released until the year 2100. These amounts are similar in magnitude to other biogeochemical feedbacks, for example, the additional CO2 released by the global warming of terrestrial soils. However, current models
do not include the full complexity of Arctic processes that occur when permafrost thaws, such as the formation of
lakes and ponds.
Methane hydrates are another form of frozen carbon, occurring in deep permafrost soils, ocean shelves, shelf slopes
and deeper ocean bottom sediments. They consist of methane and water molecule clusters, which are only stable in
a specific window of low temperatures and high pressures. On land and in the ocean, most of these hydrates originate from marine or terrestrial biogenic carbon, decomposed in the absence of oxygen and trapped in an aquatic
environment under suitable temperaturepressure conditions.
Any warming of permafrost soils, ocean waters and sediments and/or changes in pressure could destabilise those
hydrates, releasing their CH4 to the ocean. During larger, more sporadic releases, a fraction of that CH4 might also
be outgassed to the atmosphere. There is a large pool of these hydrates: in the Arctic alone, the amount of CH4
stored as hydrates could be more than 10 times greater than the CH4 presently in the global atmosphere.
Like permafrost thawing, liberating hydrates on land is a slow process, taking decades to centuries. The deeper
ocean regions and bottom sediments will take still longerbetween centuries and millennia to warm enough to
destabilise the hydrates within them. Furthermore, methane released in deeper waters has to reach the surface
and atmosphere before it can become climatically active, but most is expected to be consumed by microorganisms
before it gets there. Only the CH4 from hydrates in shallow shelves, such as in the Arctic Ocean north of Eastern
Siberia, may actually reach the atmosphere to have a climate impact.
FAQ
Several recent studies have documented locally significant CH4 emissions over the Arctic Siberian shelf and from
Siberian lakes. How much of this CH4 originates from decomposing organic carbon or from destabilizing hydrates is
not known. There is also no evidence available to determine whether these sources have been stimulated by recent
regional warming, or whether they have always existedit may be possible that these CH4 seepages have been
present since the last deglaciation. In any event, these sources make a very small contribution to the global CH4
budgetless than 5%. This is also confirmed by atmospheric methane concentration observations, which do not
show any substantial increases over the Arctic.
However modelling studies and expert judgment indicate that CH4 and CO2 emissions will increase under Arctic
warming, and that they will provide a positive climate feedback. Over centuries, this feedback will be moderate: of
a magnitude similar to other climateterrestrial ecosystem feedbacks. Over millennia and longer, however, CO2 and
CH4 releases from permafrost and shelves/shelf slopes are much more important, because of the large carbon and
methane hydrate pools involved.
142
FAQ 6.2 | What Happens to Carbon Dioxide After It Is Emitted into the Atmosphere?
Carbon dioxide (CO2), after it is emitted into the atmosphere, is firstly rapidly distributed between atmosphere, the
upper ocean and vegetation. Subsequently, the carbon continues to be moved between the different reservoirs
of the global carbon cycle, such as soils, the deeper ocean and rocks. Some of these exchanges occur very slowly.
Depending on the amount of CO2 released, between 15% and 40% will remain in the atmosphere for up to 2000
years, after which a new balance is established between the atmosphere, the land biosphere and the ocean. Geological processes will take anywhere from tens to hundreds of thousands of yearsperhaps longerto redistribute
the carbon further among the geological reservoirs. Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and associated climate
impacts of present emissions, will, therefore, persist for a very long time into the future.
CO2 is a largely non-reactive gas, which is rapidly mixed throughout the entire troposphere in less than a year.
Unlike reactive chemical compounds in the atmosphere that are removed and broken down by sink processes, such
as methane, carbon is instead redistributed among the different reservoirs of the global carbon cycle and ultimately
recycled back to the atmosphere on a multitude of time scales. FAQ 6.2, Figure 1 shows a simplified diagram of the
global carbon cycle. The open arrows indicate typical timeframes for carbon atoms to be transferred through the
different reservoirs.
Atmosphere
Volcanism
Fossil fuel
emissions
Weathering
Respiration
Photosynthesis
Gas exchange
Vegetation
from 1-100 yrs
Surface ocean
Soils
from 10-500 yrs
from 1-10 yrs

Fossil fuel
reserves
Deep sea
from
100-2000 yrs
>10,000 yrs
Rocks
Earth crust
Before the Industrial Era, the global carbon cycle was

roughly balanced. This can be inferred from ice core
measurements, which show a near constant atmospheric concentration of CO2 over the last several
thousand years prior to the Industrial Era. Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, however, have disturbed that equilibrium. As
global CO2 concentrations rise, the exchange processes between CO2 and the surface ocean and vegetation
are altered, as are subsequent exchanges within and
among the carbon reservoirs on land, in the ocean
and eventually, the Earth crust. In this way, the added
carbon is redistributed by the global carbon cycle,
until the exchanges of carbon between the different
carbon reservoirs have reached a new, approximate
balance.
FAQ
Over the ocean, CO2 molecules pass through the

air-sea interface by gas exchange. In seawater, CO2
interacts with water molecules to form carbonic acid,
FAQ 6.2, Figure 1 | Simplified schematic of the global carbon cycle showing
which reacts very quickly with the large reservoir of
the typical turnover time scales for carbon transfers through the major reservoirs.
dissolved inorganic carbonbicarbonate and carbonate ionsin the ocean. Currents and the formation of
sinking dense waters transport the carbon between the surface and deeper layers of the ocean. The marine biota
also redistribute carbon: marine organisms grow organic tissue and calcareous shells in surface waters, which, after
their death, sink to deeper waters, where they are returned to the dissolved inorganic carbon reservoir by dissolution and microbial decomposition. A small fraction reaches the sea floor, and is incorporated into the sediments.
Sediments
The extra carbon from anthropogenic emissions has the effect of increasing the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2,
which in turn increases the air-to-sea exchange of CO2 molecules. In the surface ocean, the carbonate chemistry
quickly accommodates that extra CO2. As a result, shallow surface ocean waters reach balance with the atmosphere
within 1 or 2 years. Movement of the carbon from the surface into the middle depths and deeper waters takes
longerbetween decades and many centuries. On still longer time scales, acidification by the invading CO2 dissolves carbonate sediments on the sea floor, which further enhances ocean uptake. However, current understanding suggests that, unless substantial ocean circulation changes occur, plankton growth remains roughly unchanged
because it is limited mostly by environmental factors, such as nutrients and light, and not by the availability of
inorganic carbon it does not contribute significantly to the ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2. (continued on next page)
143
FAQ 6.2 (continued)
On land, vegetation absorbs CO2 by photosynthesis and converts it into organic matter. A fraction of this carbon is
immediately returned to the atmosphere as CO2 by plant respiration. Plants use the remainder for growth. Dead
plant material is incorporated into soils, eventually to be decomposed by microorganisms and then respired back
into the atmosphere as CO2. In addition, carbon in vegetation and soils is also converted back into CO2 by fires,
insects, herbivores, as well as by harvest of plants and subsequent consumption by livestock or humans. Some
organic carbon is furthermore carried into the ocean by streams and rivers.
An increase in atmospheric CO2 stimulates photosynthesis, and thus carbon uptake. In addition, elevated CO2 concentrations help plants in dry areas to use ground water more efficiently. This in turn increases the biomass in vegetation and soils and so fosters a carbon sink on land. The magnitude of this sink, however, also depends critically
on other factors, such as water and nutrient availability.
Coupled carbon-cycle climate models indicate that less carbon is taken up by the ocean and land as the climate
warms constituting a positive climate feedback. Many different factors contribute to this effect: warmer seawater,
for instance, has a lower CO2 solubility, so altered chemical carbon reactions result in less oceanic uptake of excess
atmospheric CO2. On land, higher temperatures foster longer seasonal growth periods in temperate and higher
latitudes, but also faster respiration of soil carbon.
The time it takes to reach a new carbon distribution balance depends on the transfer times of carbon through the
different reservoirs, and takes place over a multitude of time scales. Carbon is first exchanged among the fast
carbon reservoirs, such as the atmosphere, surface ocean, land vegetation and soils, over time scales up to a few
thousand years. Over longer time scales, very slow secondary geological processesdissolution of carbonate sediments and sediment burial into the Earths crustbecome important.
FAQ
FAQ 6.2, Figure 2 illustrates the decay of a large excess amount of CO2 (5000 PgC, or about 10 times the cumulative
CO2 emitted so far since the beginning of the industrial Era) emitted into the atmosphere, and how it is redistributed among land and the ocean over time. During the first 200 years, the ocean and land take up similar amounts
of carbon. On longer time scales, the ocean uptake dominates mainly because of its larger reservoir size (~38,000
PgC) as compared to land (~4000 PgC) and atmosphere (589 PgC prior to the Industrial Era). Because of ocean
chemistry the size of the initial input is important: higher emissions imply that a larger fraction of CO2 will remain
in the atmosphere. After 2000 years, the atmosphere will still contain between 15% and 40% of those initial CO2
emissions. A further reduction by carbonate sediment dissolution, and reactions with igneous rocks, such as silicate
weathering and sediment burial, will take anything from tens to hundreds of thousands of years, or even longer.
Ocean invasion
Land uptake
5000
(PgC)
4000
Ocean invasion
Ocean
Land
3000
Reaction with CaCO3
2000
Reactions with
igneous rocks
Atmosphere
1000
50
100
150
200
500
1000
1500
Time (Years)
2000
4000
6000
8000
10 000
FAQ 6.2, Figure 2 | Decay of a CO2 excess amount of 5000 PgC emitted at time zero into the atmosphere, and its subsequent redistribution into land and ocean
as a function of time, computed by coupled carbon-cycle climate models. The sizes of the colour bands indicate the carbon uptake by the respective reservoir. The first
two panels show the multi-model mean from a model intercomparison project (Joos et al., 2013). The last panel shows the longer term redistribution including ocean
dissolution of carbonaceous sediments as computed with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (after Archer et al., 2009b).
144
FAQ 7.1 | How Do Clouds Affect Climate and Climate Change?

Clouds strongly affect the current climate, but observations alone cannot yet tell us how they will affect a future,
warmer climate. Comprehensive prediction of changes in cloudiness requires a global climate model. Such models
simulate cloud fields that roughly resemble those observed, but important errors and uncertainties remain. Different climate models produce different projections of how clouds will change in a warmer climate. Based on all
available evidence, it seems likely that the net cloudclimate feedback amplifies global warming. If so, the strength
of this amplification remains uncertain.
Since the 1970s, scientists have recognized the critical importance of clouds for the climate system, and for climate
change. Clouds affect the climate system in a variety of ways. They produce precipitation (rain and snow) that is
necessary for most life on land. They warm the atmosphere as water vapour condenses. Although some of the condensed water re-evaporates, the precipitation that reaches the surface represents a net warming of the air. Clouds
strongly affect the flows of both sunlight (warming the planet) and infrared light (cooling the planet as it is radiated to space) through the atmosphere. Finally, clouds contain powerful updraughts that can rapidly carry air from
near the surface to great heights. The updraughts carry energy, moisture, momentum, trace gases, and aerosol
particles. For decades, climate scientists have been using both observations and models to study how clouds change
with the daily weather, with the seasonal cycle, and with year-to-year changes such as those associated with El Nio.
All cloud processes have the potential to change as the climate state changes. Cloud feedbacks are of intense interest in the context of climate change. Any change in a cloud process that is caused by climate changeand in turn
influences climaterepresents a cloudclimate feedback. Because clouds interact so strongly with both sunlight
and infrared light, small changes in cloudiness can have a potent effect on the climate system.
FAQ
Many possible types of cloudclimate feedbacks have been suggested, involving changes in cloud amount, cloudtop height and/or cloud reflectivity (see FAQ7.1, Figure 1). The literature shows consistently that high clouds amplify
global warming as they interact with infrared light emitted by the atmosphere and surface. There is more uncertainty, however, about the feedbacks associated with low-altitude clouds, and about cloud feedbacks associated
with amount and reflectivity in general.
Thick high clouds efficiently reflect sunlight, and both thick and thin high clouds strongly reduce the amount of
infrared light that the atmosphere and surface emit to space. The compensation between these two effects makes
Tropics
Mid-latitudes
Greenhouse
Warming
Cloud
Response
High clouds rise as troposphere

deepens, increasing difference
between cloud top and surface
temperature.
Reduction in mid- and low-level cloudiness (left).

Shift of cloudy storm tracks poleward into
regions with less sunlight (right).
Feedback
Mechanism
High clouds more effectively trap

infrared radiation, increasing
surface warming.
Less sunlight reflected by clouds back to space,

increasing surface warming.
FAQ 7.1, Figure 1 | Schematic of important cloud feedback mechanisms.
145
FAQ 7.1 (continued)
the surface temperature somewhat less sensitive to changes in high cloud amount than to changes in low cloud
amount. This compensation could be disturbed if there were a systematic shift from thick high cloud to thin cirrus
cloud or vice versa; while this possibility cannot be ruled out, it is not currently supported by any evidence. On
the other hand, changes in the altitude of high clouds (for a given high-cloud amount) can strongly affect surface
temperature. An upward shift in high clouds reduces the infrared light that the surface and atmosphere emit to
space, but has little effect on the reflected sunlight. There is strong evidence of such a shift in a warmer climate.
This amplifies global warming by preventing some of the additional infrared light emitted by the atmosphere and
surface from leaving the climate system.
Low clouds reflect a lot of sunlight back to space but, for a given state of the atmosphere and surface, they have
only a weak effect on the infrared light that is emitted to space by the Earth. As a result, they have a net cooling
effect on the present climate; to a lesser extent, the same holds for mid-level clouds. In a future climate warmed
by increasing greenhouse gases, most IPCC-assessed climate models simulate a decrease in low and mid-level cloud
amount, which would increase the absorption of sunlight and so tend to increase the warming. The extent of this
decrease is quite model-dependent, however.
There are also other ways that clouds may change in a warmer climate. Changes in wind patterns and storm tracks
could affect the regional and seasonal patterns of cloudiness and precipitation. Some studies suggest that the signal
of one such trend seen in climate modelsa poleward migration of the clouds associated with mid-latitude storm
tracksis already detectable in the observational record. By shifting clouds into regions receiving less sunlight, this
could also amplify global warming. More clouds may be made of liquid drops, which are small but numerous and
reflect more sunlight back to space than a cloud composed of the same mass of larger ice crystals. Thin cirrus cloud,
which exerts a net warming effect and is very hard for climate models to simulate, could change in ways not simulated by models although there is no evidence for this. Other processes may be regionally important, for example,
interactions between clouds and the surface can change over the ocean where sea ice melts, and over land where
plant transpiration is reduced.
FAQ
There is as yet no broadly accepted way to infer global cloud feedbacks from observations of long-term cloud trends
or shorter-time scale variability. Nevertheless, all the models used for the current assessment (and the preceding
two IPCC assessments) produce net cloud feedbacks that either enhance anthropogenic greenhouse warming or
have little overall effect. Feedbacks are not put into the models, but emerge from the functioning of the clouds in
the simulated atmosphere and their effects on the flows and transformations of energy in the climate system. The
differences in the strengths of the cloud feedbacks produced by the various models largely account for the different
sensitivities of the models to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.
146
FAQ 7.2 | How Do Aerosols Affect Climate and Climate Change?

Atmospheric aerosols are composed of small liquid or solid particles suspended in the atmosphere, other than larger
cloud and precipitation particles. They come from natural and anthropogenic sources, and can affect the climate in
multiple and complex ways through their interactions with radiation and clouds. Overall, models and observations
indicate that anthropogenic aerosols have exerted a cooling influence on the Earth since pre-industrial times, which
has masked some of the global mean warming from greenhouse gases that would have occurred in their absence.
The projected decrease in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols in the future, in response to air quality policies,
would eventually unmask this warming.
Atmospheric aerosols have a typical lifetime of one day to two weeks in the troposphere, and about one year in the
stratosphere. They vary greatly in size, chemical composition and shape. Some aerosols, such as dust and sea spray,
are mostly or entirely of natural origin, while other aerosols, such as sulphates and smoke, come from both natural
and anthropogenic sources.
Aerosols affect climate in many ways. First, they scatter and absorb sunlight, which modifies the Earths radiative
balance (see FAQ.7.2, Figure 1). Aerosol scattering generally makes the planet more reflective, and tends to cool
the climate, while aerosol absorption has the opposite effect, and tends to warm the climate system. The balance
between cooling and warming depends on aerosol properties and environmental conditions. Many observational
studies have quantified local radiative effects from anthropogenic and natural aerosols, but determining their
FAQ
Aerosol-radiation interactions
Scattering aerosols
(a)
(a)
(b)
Cooling
Aerosols scatter solar radiation. Less solar radiation
reaches the surface, which leads to a localised cooling.
The atmospheric circulation and mixing processes spread

the cooling regionally and in the vertical.
Absorbing aerosols
(c)
(c)
(d)
Warming
Aerosols absorb solar radiation. This heats the aerosol
layer but the surface, which receives less solar radiation,
can cool locally.
At the larger scale there is a net warming of the surface and

atmosphere because the atmospheric circulation and
mixing processes redistribute the thermal energy.
FAQ 7.2, Figure 1 | Overview of interactions between aerosols and solar radiation and their impact on climate. The left panels show the instantaneous radiative effects
of aerosols, while the right panels show their overall impact after the climate system has responded to their radiative effects.
147
FAQ 7.2 (continued)
global impact requires satellite data and models.

One of the remaining uncertainties comes from
black carbon, an absorbing aerosol that not
only is more difficult to measure than scattering
aerosols, but also induces a complicated cloud
response. Most studies agree, however, that
the overall radiative effect from anthropogenic
aerosols is to cool the planet.
Aerosols also serve as condensation and ice
nucleation sites, on which cloud droplets and ice
particles can form (see FAQ.7.2, Figure 2). When
influenced by more aerosol particles, clouds of
liquid water droplets tend to have more, but
smaller droplets, which causes these clouds to
reflect more solar radiation. There are however
many other pathways for aerosolcloud interactions, particularly in iceor mixed liquid and
iceclouds, where phase changes between
liquid and ice water are sensitive to aerosol concentrations and properties. The initial view that
an increase in aerosol concentration will also
increase the amount of low clouds has been
challenged because a number of counteracting
processes come into play. Quantifying the overall
impact of aerosols on cloud amounts and properties is understandably difficult. Available studies,
based on climate models and satellite observations, generally indicate that the net effect of
anthropogenic aerosols on clouds is to cool the
climate system.
FAQ
Because aerosols are distributed unevenly in the

atmosphere, they can heat and cool the climate
system in patterns that can drive changes in the
weather. These effects are complex, and hard to
simulate with current models, but several studies suggest significant effects on precipitation in
certain regions.
Aerosol-cloud interactions
(a)
Aerosols serve as cloud condensation nuclei upon which

liquid droplets can form.
(b)
More aerosols result in a larger concentration of smaller

droplets, leading to a brighter cloud. However there are
many other possible aerosolcloudprecipitation
processes which may amplify or dampen this effect.
FAQ 7.2, Figure 2 | Overview of aerosolcloud interactions and their impact

Because of their short lifetime, the abundance of
on climate. Panels (a) and (b) represent a clean and a polluted low-level cloud,
aerosolsand their climate effectshave varied
respectively.
over time, in rough concert with anthropogenic
emissions of aerosols and their precursors in the gas phase such as sulphur dioxide (SO2) and some volatile organic
compounds. Because anthropogenic aerosol emissions have increased substantially over the industrial period, this
has counteracted some of the warming that would otherwise have occurred from increased concentrations of well
mixed greenhouse gases. Aerosols from large volcanic eruptions that enter the stratosphere, such as those of El
Chichn and Pinatubo, have also caused cooling periods that typically last a year or two.
Over the last two decades, anthropogenic aerosol emissions have decreased in some developed countries, but
increased in many developing countries. The impact of aerosols on the global mean surface temperature over this
particular period is therefore thought to be small. It is projected, however, that emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will ultimately decrease in response to air quality policies, which would suppress their cooling influence on the
Earths surface, thus leading to increased warming.
148
FAQ 7.3 | Could Geoengineering Counteract Climate Change and What Side Effects
Might Occur?
Geoengineeringalso called climate engineeringis defined as a broad set of methods and technologies that aim
to deliberately alter the climate system in order to alleviate impacts of climate change. Two distinct categories of
geoengineering methods are usually considered: Solar Radiation Management (SRM, assessed in Section 7.7) aims
to offset the warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases by making the planet more reflective while Carbon
Dioxide Removal (CDR, assessed in Section 6.5) aims at reducing the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The two categories operate on different physical principles and on different time scales. Models suggest that if SRM methods
were realizable they would be effective in countering increasing temperatures, and would be less, but still, effective
in countering some other climate changes. SRM would not counter all effects of climate change, and all proposed
geoengineering methods also carry risks and side effects. Additional consequences cannot yet be anticipated as the
level of scientific understanding about both SRM and CDR is low. There are also many (political, ethical, and practical) issues involving geoengineering that are beyond the scope of this report.
Carbon Dioxide Removal Methods
CDR methods aim at removing CO2 from the atmosphere by deliberately modifying carbon cycle processes, or by
industrial (e.g., chemical) approaches. The carbon withdrawn from the atmosphere would then be stored in land,
ocean or in geological reservoirs. Some CDR methods rely on biological processes, such as large-scale afforestation/
reforestation, carbon sequestration in soils through biochar, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)
and ocean fertilization. Others would rely on geological processes, such as accelerated weathering of silicate and
carbonate rockson land or in the ocean (see FAQ.7.3, Figure 1). The CO2 removed from the atmosphere would
FAQ
L
K
E
D
J
A
SOLAR RADIATION MANAGEMENT
CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL
Ocean
Fertilisation
Direct Air Capture
Alkalinity
Addition
To The
Ocean
Biomass Energy
With Carbon
Capture
And Storage
Accelerated
Weathering
Afforestation
Deployment
Of Space
Mirrors
Ocean Brightening
With Microbubbles
Stratospheric
Aerosol
Injection
Crop
Brightening
Marine Cloud
Brightening
Whitening
Rooftops
FAQ 7.3, Figure 1 | Overview of some proposed geoengineering methods as they have been suggested. Carbon Dioxide Removal methods (see Section 6.5 for
details): (A) nutrients are added to the ocean (ocean fertilization), which increases oceanic productivity in the surface ocean and transports a fraction of the resulting
biogenic carbon downward; (B) alkalinity from solid minerals is added to the ocean, which causes more atmospheric CO2 to dissolve in the ocean; (C) the weathering
rate of silicate rocks is increased, and the dissolved carbonate minerals are transported to the ocean; (D) atmospheric CO2 is captured chemically, and stored either
underground or in the ocean; (E) biomass is burned at an electric power plant with carbon capture, and the captured CO2 is stored either underground or in the ocean;
and (F) CO2 is captured through afforestation and reforestation to be stored in land ecosystems. Solar Radiation Management methods (see Section 7.7 for details): (G)
reflectors are placed in space to reflect solar radiation; (H) aerosols are injected in the stratosphere; (I) marine clouds are seeded in order to be made more reflective; (J)
microbubbles are produced at the ocean surface to make it more reflective; (K) more reflective crops are grown; and (L) roofs and other built structures are whitened.
149
FAQ 7.3 (continued)
then be stored in organic form in land reservoirs, or in inorganic form in oceanic and geological reservoirs, where
it would have to be stored for at least hundreds of years for CDR to be effective.
CDR methods would reduce the radiative forcing of CO2 inasmuch as they are effective at removing CO2 from the
atmosphere and keeping the removed carbon away from the atmosphere. Some methods would also reduce ocean
acidification (see FAQ 3.2), but other methods involving oceanic storage might instead increase ocean acidification
if the carbon is sequestered as dissolved CO2. A major uncertainty related to the effectiveness of CDR methods
is the storage capacity and the permanence of stored carbon. Permanent carbon removal and storage by CDR
would decrease climate warming in the long term. However, non-permanent storage strategies would allow CO2 to
return back to the atmosphere where it would once again contribute to warming. An intentional removal of CO2
by CDR methods will be partially offset by the response of the oceanic and terrestrial carbon reservoirs if the CO2
atmospheric concentration is reduced. This is because some oceanic and terrestrial carbon reservoirs will outgas to
the atmosphere the anthropogenic CO2 that had previously been stored. To completely offset past anthropogenic
CO2 emissions, CDR techniques would therefore need to remove not just the CO2 that has accumulated in the
atmosphere since pre-industrial times, but also the anthropogenic carbon previously taken up by the terrestrial
biosphere and the ocean.
Biological and most chemical weathering CDR methods cannot be scaled up indefinitely and are necessarily limited
by various physical or environmental constraints such as competing demands for land. Assuming a maximum CDR
sequestration rate of 200 PgC per century from a combination of CDR methods, it would take about one and half
centuries to remove the CO2 emitted in the last 50 years, making it difficulteven for a suite of additive CDR methodsto mitigate climate change rapidly. Direct air capture methods could in principle operate much more rapidly,
but may be limited by large-scale implementation, including energy use and environmental constraints.
FAQ
CDR could also have climatic and environmental side effects. For instance, enhanced vegetation productivity may
increase emissions of N2O, which is a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2. A large-scale increase in vegetation
coverage, for instance through afforestation or energy crops, could alter surface characteristics, such as surface
reflectivity and turbulent fluxes. Some modelling studies have shown that afforestation in seasonally snow-covered
boreal regions could in fact accelerate global warming, whereas afforestation in the tropics may be more effective
at slowing global warming. Ocean-based CDR methods that rely on biological production (i.e., ocean fertilization)
would have numerous side effects on ocean ecosystems, ocean acidity and may produce emissions of non-CO2
greenhouse gases.
Solar Radiation Management Methods
The globally averaged surface temperature of the planet is strongly influenced by the amount of sunlight absorbed
by the Earths atmosphere and surface, which warms the planet, and by the existence of the greenhouse effect,
the process by which greenhouse gases and clouds affect the way energy is eventually radiated back to space. An
increase in the greenhouse effect leads to a surface temperature rise until a new equilibrium is found.If less incoming sunlight is absorbed because the planet has been made more reflective, or if energy can be emitted to space
more effectively because the greenhouse effect is reduced, the average global surface temperature will be reduced.
Suggested geoengineering methods that aim at managing the Earths incoming and outgoing energy flows are
based on this fundamental physical principle. Most of these methods propose to either reduce sunlight reaching
the Earth or increase the reflectivity of the planet by making the atmosphere, clouds or the surface brighter (see
FAQ 7.3, Figure 1). Another technique proposes to suppress high-level clouds called cirrus, as these clouds have a
strong greenhouse effect. Basic physics tells us that if any of these methods change energy flows as expected, then
the planet will cool. The picture is complicated, however, because of the many and complex physical processes
which govern the interactions between the flow of energy, the atmospheric circulation, weather and the resulting
climate.
While the globally averaged surface temperature of the planet will respond to a change in the amount of sunlight
reaching the surface or a change in the greenhouse effect, the temperature at any given location and time is influenced by many other factors and the amount of cooling from SRM will not in general equal the amount of warming caused by greenhouse gases. For example, SRM will change heating rates only during daytime, but increasing
greenhouse gases can change temperatures during both day and night. This inexact compensation can influence
150
FAQ 7.3 (continued)
the diurnal cycle of surface temperature, even if the average surface temperature is unchanged. As another example, model calculations suggest that a uniform decrease in sunlight reaching the surface might offset global mean
CO2-induced warming, but some regions will cool less than others. Models suggest that if anthropogenic greenhouse warming were completely compensated by stratospheric aerosols, then polar regions would be left with a
small residual warming, while tropical regions would become a little cooler than in pre-industrial times.
SRM could theoretically counteract anthropogenic climate change rapidly, cooling the Earth to pre-industrial levels
within one or two decades. This is known from climate models but also from the climate records of large volcanic
eruptions. The well-observed eruption of Mt Pinatubo in 1991 caused a temporary increase in stratospheric aerosols
and a rapid decrease in surface temperature of about 0.5C.
Without conventional mitigation efforts or potential CDR methods, high CO2 concentrations from anthropogenic emissions will
persist in the atmosphere for as long as a thousand years, and SRM
would have to be maintained as long as CO2 concentrations were
high. Stopping SRM while CO2 concentrations are still high would
lead to a very rapid warming over one or two decades (see FAQ7.3,
Figure 2), severely stressing ecosystem and human adaptation.
FAQ
0.5
-0.5
Change in precipitation (%)
SRM techniques would probably have other side effects. For example, theory, observation and models suggest that stratospheric
sulphate aerosols from volcanic eruptions and natural emissions
deplete stratospheric ozone, especially while chlorine from chlorofluorocarbon emissions resides in the atmosphere. Stratospheric
aerosols introduced for SRM are expected to have the same effect.
Ozone depletion would increase the amount of ultraviolet light
reaching the surface damaging terrestrial and marine ecosystems.
Stratospheric aerosols would also increase the ratio of direct to diffuse sunlight reaching the surface, which generally increases plant
productivity. There has also been some concern that sulphate aerosol SRM would increase acid rain, but model studies suggest that
acid rain is probably not a major concern since the rate of acid rain
production from stratospheric aerosol SRM would be much smaller
than values currently produced by pollution sources. SRM will also
not address the ocean acidification associated with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and its impacts on marine ecosystems.
Change in temperature (C)
Climate consists of many factors besides surface temperature. Consequences for other climate features, such as
rainfall, soil moisture, river flow, snowpack and sea ice, and ecosystems may also be important. Both models and
theory show that compensating an increased greenhouse effect with SRM to stabilize surface temperature would
somewhat lower the globally averaged rainfall (see FAQ 7.3, Figure 2 for an idealized model result), and there
also could be regional changes. Such imprecise compensation in
3
regional and global climate patterns makes it improbable that SRM
(a)
will produce a future climate that is just like the one we experi2.5
ence today, or have experienced in the past. However, available
2
climate models indicate that a geoengineered climate with SRM
and high atmospheric CO2 levels would be generally closer to 20th
1.5
century climate than a future climate with elevated CO2 concentra1
tions and no SRM.
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
20
30
40
50
60
70
(b)
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
10
Year
FAQ 7.3, Figure 2 | Change in globally averaged (a) surface temperature (C) and (b) precipitation (%) in two idealized experiments. Solid lines are for simulations using Solar
Radiation Management (SRM) to balance a 1% yr1 increase in
CO2 concentration until year 50, after which SRM is stopped.
Dashed lines are for simulations with a 1% yr1 increase in
CO2 concentration and no SRM. The yellow and grey envelopes
show the 25th to 75th percentiles from eight different models.
If SRM were used to avoid some consequences of increasing CO2 concentrations, the risks, side effects and shortcomings would clearly increase as the scale of SRM increase. Approaches have been proposed to use a time-limited
amount of SRM along with aggressive strategies for reducing CO2 concentrations to help avoid transitions across
climate thresholds or tipping points that would be unavoidable otherwise; assessment of such approaches would
require a very careful risk benefit analysis that goes much beyond this Report.
151
FAQ 8.1 | How Important Is Water Vapour to Climate Change?

As the largest contributor to the natural greenhouse effect, water vapour plays an essential role in the Earths
climate. However, the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is controlled mostly by air temperature, rather
than by emissions. For that reason, scientists consider it a feedback agent, rather than a forcing to climate change.
Anthropogenic emissions of water vapour through irrigation or power plant cooling have a negligible impact on
the global climate.
Water vapour is the primary greenhouse gas in the Earths atmosphere. The contribution of water vapour to the
natural greenhouse effect relative to that of carbon dioxide (CO2) depends on the accounting method, but can
be considered to be approximately two to three times greater. Additional water vapour is injected into the atmosphere from anthropogenic activities, mostly through increased evaporation from irrigated crops, but also through
power plant cooling, and marginally through the combustion of fossil fuel. One may therefore question why there
is so much focus on CO2, and not on water vapour, as a forcing to climate change.
Water vapour behaves differently from CO2 in one fundamental way: it can condense and precipitate. When air
with high humidity cools, some of the vapour condenses into water droplets or ice particles and precipitates. The
typical residence time of water vapour in the atmosphere is ten days. The flux of water vapour into the atmosphere
from anthropogenic sources is considerably less than from natural evaporation. Therefore, it has a negligible
impact on overall concentrations, and does not contribute significantly to the long-term greenhouse effect. This is
the main reason why tropospheric water vapour (typically below 10 km altitude) is not considered to be an anthropogenic gas contributing to radiative forcing.
FAQ
Anthropogenic emissions do have a significant impact on water vapour in the stratosphere, which is the part of
the atmosphere above about 10 km. Increased concentrations of methane (CH4) due to human activities lead to
an additional source of water, through oxidation, which partly explains the observed changes in that atmospheric
layer. That stratospheric water change has a radiative impact, is considered a forcing, and can be evaluated. Stratospheric concentrations of water have varied significantly in past decades. The full extent of these variations is not
well understood and is probably less a forcing than
a feedback process added to natural variability. The
T -4 T -2 T
T +2 T +4 Temperature change
contribution of stratospheric water vapour to warm1.4
ing, both forcing and feedback, is much smaller than
1.2
from CH4 or CO2.
0
1.0
0.8
0.6
Water vapour
The maximum amount of water vapour in the air

is controlled by temperature. A typical column of
air extending from the surface to the stratosphere
in polar regions may contain only a few kilograms
of water vapour per square metre, while a similar column of air in the tropics may contain up to
70 kg. With every extra degree of air temperature,
the atmosphere can retain around 7% more water
vapour (see upper-left insert in the FAQ 8.1, Figure
1). This increase in concentration amplifies the greenhouse effect, and therefore leads to more warming.
This process, referred to as the water vapour feedback, is well understood and quantified. It occurs in
all models used to estimate climate change, where
its strength is consistent with observations. Although
an increase in atmospheric water vapour has been
observed, this change is recognized as a climate feedback (from increased atmospheric temperature) and
should not be interpreted as a radiative forcing from
anthropogenic emissions. (continued on next page)
FAQ 8.1, Figure 1 | Illustration of the water cycle and its interaction with the
greenhouse effect. The upper-left insert indicates the relative increase of potential water vapour content in the air with an increase of temperature (roughly
7% per degree). The white curls illustrate evaporation, which is compensated by
precipitation to close the water budget. The red arrows illustrate the outgoing
infrared radiation that is partly absorbed by water vapour and other gases, a process that is one component of the greenhouse effect. The stratospheric processes
are not included in this figure.
153
FAQ 8.1 (continued)
Currently, water vapour has the largest greenhouse effect in the Earths atmosphere. However, other greenhouse
gases, primarily CO2, are necessary to sustain the presence of water vapour in the atmosphere. Indeed, if these other
gases were removed from the atmosphere, its temperature would drop sufficiently to induce a decrease of water
vapour, leading to a runaway drop of the greenhouse effect that would plunge the Earth into a frozen state. So
greenhouse gases other than water vapour provide the temperature structure that sustains current levels of atmospheric water vapour. Therefore, although CO2 is the main anthropogenic control knob on climate, water vapour
is a strong and fast feedback that amplifies any initial forcing by a typical factor between two and three. Water
vapour is not a significant initial forcing, but is nevertheless a fundamental agent of climate change.
FAQ
154
FAQ 8.2 | Do Improvements in Air Quality Have an Effect on Climate Change?

Yes they do, but depending on which pollutant(s) they limit, they can either cool or warm the climate. For example,
whereas a reduction in sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions leads to more warming, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission
control has both a cooling (through reducing of tropospheric ozone) and a warming effect (due to its impact on
methane lifetime and aerosol production). Air pollution can also affect precipitation patterns.
Air quality is nominally a measure of airborne surface pollutants, such as ozone, carbon monoxide, NOx and aerosols
(solid or liquid particulate matter). Exposure to such pollutants exacerbates respiratory and cardiovascular diseases,
harms plants and damages buildings. For these reasons, most major urban centres try to control discharges of airborne pollutants.
Unlike carbon dioxide (CO2) and other well-mixed greenhouse gases, tropospheric ozone and aerosols may last in
the atmosphere only for a few days to a few weeks, though indirect couplings within the Earth system can prolong
their impact. These pollutants are usually most potent near their area of emission or formation, where they can
force local or regional perturbations to climate, even if their globally averaged effect is small.
Air pollutants affect climate differently according to their physical and chemical characteristics. Pollution-generated
greenhouse gases will impact climate primarily through shortwave and longwave radiation, while aerosols can in
addition affect climate through cloudaerosol interactions.
Controls on anthropogenic emissions of methane (FAQ 8.2, Figure 1) to lower surface ozone have been identified as
winwin situations. Consequences of controlling other ozone precursors are not always as clear. NOx emission controls, for instance, might be expected to have a cooling effect as they reduce tropospheric ozone, but their impact
on CH4 lifetime and aerosol formation is more likely instead to cause overall warming.
FAQ
Satellite observations have identified increasing atmospheric concentrations of SO2 (the primary precursor to scattering sulphate aerosols) from coal-burning power plants over eastern Asia during the last few decades. The most
recent power plants use scrubbers to reduce such emissions (albeit not the concurrent CO2 emissions and associated
long-term climate warming). This improves air quality, but also reduces the cooling effect of sulphate aerosols and
therefore exacerbates warming. Aerosol cooling occurs through aerosolradiation and aerosolcloud interactions
and is estimated at 0.9 W m2 (all aerosols combined, Section 8.3.4.3) since pre-industrial, having grown especially
during the second half of the 20th century when anthropogenic emissions rose sharply. (continued on next page)
Ozone pollution
controls
Methane
Carbon
monoxide
Nitrogen
oxides
Cooling
Particulate
matter controls
VOCs
Ammonia
Black
carbon
Organic
carbon
Sulfur
dioxide
Warming
FAQ 8.2, Figure 1 | Schematic diagram of the impact of pollution controls on specific emissions and climate impact. Solid black line indicates known impact; dashed
line indicates uncertain impact.
155
FAQ 8.2 (continued)
Black carbon or soot, on the other hand, absorbs heat in the atmosphere (leading to a 0.4 W m2 radiative forcing
from anthropogenic fossil and biofuel emissions) and, when deposited on snow, reduces its albedo, or ability to
reflect sunlight. Reductions of black carbon emissions can therefore have a cooling effect, but the additional interaction of black carbon with clouds is uncertain and could lead to some counteracting warming.
Air quality controls might also target a specific anthropogenic activity sector, such as transportation or energy production. In that case, co-emitted species within the targeted sector lead to a complex mix of chemistry and climate
perturbations. For example, smoke from biofuel combustion contains a mixture of both absorbing and scattering
particles as well as ozone precursors, for which the combined climate impact can be difficult to ascertain.
Thus, surface air quality controls will have some consequences on climate. Some couplings between the targeted
emissions and climate are still poorly understood or identified, including the effects of air pollutants on precipitation patterns, making it difficult to fully quantify these consequences. There is an important twist, too, in the
potential effect of climate change on air quality. In particular, an observed correlation between surface ozone
and temperature in polluted regions indicates that higher temperatures from climate change alone could worsen
summertime pollution, suggesting a climate penalty. This penalty implies stricter surface ozone controls will be
required to achieve a specific target. In addition, projected changes in the frequency and duration of stagnation
events could impact air quality conditions. These features will be regionally variable and difficult to assess, but
better understanding, quantification and modelling of these processes will clarify the overall interaction between
air pollutants and climate.
FAQ
156
FAQ 9.1 | Are Climate Models Getting Better, and How Would We Know?
Climate models are extremely sophisticated computer programs that encapsulate our understanding of the climate
system and simulate, with as much fidelity as currently feasible, the complex interactions between the atmosphere,
ocean, land surface, snow and ice, the global ecosystem and a variety of chemical and biological processes.
The complexity of climate modelsthe representation of physical processes like clouds, land surface interactions
and the representation of the global carbon and sulphur cycles in many modelshas increased substantially since
the IPCC First Assessment Report in 1990, so in that sense, current Earth System Models are vastly better than the
models of that era. This development has continued since the Fourth Assessment, while other factors have also
contributed to model improvement. More powerful supercomputers allow current models to resolve finer spatial
detail. Todays models also reflect improved understanding of how climate processes workunderstanding that has
come from ongoing research and analysis, along with new and improved observations.
Climate models of today are, in principle, better than their predecessors. However, every bit of added complexity,
while intended to improve some aspect of simulated climate, also introduces new sources of possible error (e.g., via
uncertain parameters) and new interactions between model components that may, if only temporarily, degrade a
models simulation of other aspects of the climate system. Furthermore, despite the progress that has been made,
scientific uncertainty regarding the details of many processes remains.
Quantifying model performance is a topic that has featured in all previous IPCC Working Group I Reports.
Reading back over these earlier assessments provides
a general sense of the improvements that have been
made. Past reports have typically provided a rather
broad survey of model performance, showing differences between model-calculated versions of various climate
quantities and corresponding observational estimates.
Inevitably, some models perform better than others for
certain climate variables, but no individual model clearly emerges as the best overall. Recently, there has been
progress in computing various performance metrics,
which synthesize model performance relative to a range
of different observations according to a simple numerical score. Of course, the definition of such a score, how
it is computed, the observations used (which have their
Surface Temperature
FAQ
Pattern correlation
0.99
0.98
0.97
0.96
0.95
CMIP2
CMIP3
CMIP5
Precipitation
Pattern correlation
An important consideration is that model performance

can be evaluated only relative to past observations,
taking into account natural internal variability. To have
confidence in the future projections of such models, historical climateand its variability and changemust be
well simulated. The scope of model evaluation, in terms
of the kind and quantity of observations available, the
availability of better coordinated model experiments,
and the expanded use of various performance metrics, has provided much more quantitative information
about model performance. But this alone may not be
sufficient. Whereas weather and seasonal climate predictions can be regularly verified, climate projections
spanning a century or more cannot. This is particularly
the case as anthropogenic forcing is driving the climate
system toward conditions not previously observed in the
instrumental record, and it will always be a limitation.
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
CMIP2
CMIP3
CMIP5
FAQ 9.1, Figure 1 | Model capability in simulating annual mean temperature

and precipitation patterns as illustrated by results of three recent phases of
the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2, models from about year
2000; CMIP3, models from about 2005; and CMIP5, the current generation
of models). The figure shows the correlation (a measure of pattern similarity)
between observed and modelled temperature (upper panel) and precipitation
(lower panel). Larger values indicate better correspondence between modelled
and observed spatial patterns. The black symbols indicate correlation coefficient
for individual models, and the large green symbols indicate the median value
(i.e., half of the model results lie above and the other half below this value).
Improvement in model performance is evident by the increase in correlation for
successive model generations.
157
FAQ 9.1 (continued)
own uncertainties), and the manner in which various scores are combined are all important, and will affect the end
result.
Nevertheless, if the metric is computed consistently, one can compare different generations of models. Results
of such comparisons generally show that, although each generation exhibits a range in performance, the average model performance index has improved steadily between each generation. An example of changes in model
performance over time is shown in FAQ 9.1, Figure 1, and illustrates the ongoing, albeit modest, improvement. It
is interesting to note that both the poorest and best performing models demonstrate improvement, and that this
improvement comes in parallel with increasing model complexity and an elimination of artificial adjustments to
atmosphere and ocean coupling (so-called flux adjustment). Some of the reasons for this improvement include
increased understanding of various climate processes and better representation of these processes in climate
models. More comprehensive Earth observations are also driving improvements.
So, yes, climate models are getting better, and we can demonstrate this with quantitative performance metrics
based on historical observations. Although future climate projections cannot be directly evaluated, climate models
are based, to a large extent, on verifiable physical principles and are able to reproduce many important aspects of
past response to external forcing. In this way, they provide a scientifically sound preview of the climate response to
different scenarios of anthropogenic forcing.
FAQ
158
FAQ 10.1 | Climate Is Always Changing. How Do We Determine the Causes of Observed
Changes?
The causes of observed long-term changes in climate (on time scales longer than a decade) are assessed by determining whether the expected fingerprints of different causes of climate change are present in the historical record.
These fingerprints are derived from computer model simulations of the different patterns of climate change caused
by individual climate forcings. On multi-decade time scales, these forcings include processes such as greenhouse gas
increases or changes in solar brightness. By comparing the simulated fingerprint patterns with observed climate
changes, we can determine whether observed changes are best explained by those fingerprint patterns, or by natural variability, which occurs without any forcing.
The fingerprint of human-caused greenhouse gas increases is clearly apparent in the pattern of observed 20th century climate change. The observed change cannot be otherwise explained by the fingerprints of natural forcings
or natural variability simulated by climate models. Attribution studies therefore support the conclusion that it is
extremely likely that human activities have caused more than half of the observed increase in global mean surface
temperatures from 1951 to 2010.
The Earths climate is always changing, and that can occur for many reasons. To determine the principal causes of
observed changes, we must first ascertain whether an observed change in climate is different from other fluctuations that occur without any forcing at all. Climate variability without forcingcalled internal variabilityis the
consequence of processes within the climate system. Large-scale oceanic variability, such as El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean, is the dominant source of internal climate variability on decadal to
centennial time scales.
FAQ
Climate change can also result from natural forcings external to the climate system, such as volcanic eruptions, or
changes in the brightness of the sun. Forcings such as these are responsible for the huge changes in climate that are
clearly documented in the geological record. Human-caused forcings include greenhouse gas emissions or atmospheric particulate pollution. Any of these forcings, natural or human caused, could affect internal variability as well
as causing a change in average climate. Attribution studies attempt to determine the causes of a detected change in
observed climate. Over the past century we know that global average temperature has increased, so if the observed
change is forced then the principal forcing must be one that causes warming, not cooling.
Formal climate change attribution studies are carried out using controlled experiments with climate models. The
model-simulated responses to specific climate forcings are often called the fingerprints of those forcings. A climate
model must reliably simulate the fingerprint patterns associated with individual forcings, as well as the patterns of
unforced internal variability, in order to yield a meaningful climate change attribution assessment. No model can
perfectly reproduce all features of climate, but many detailed studies indicate that simulations using current models
are indeed sufficiently reliable to carry out attribution assessments.
FAQ 10.1, Figure 1 illustrates part of a fingerprint assessment of global temperature change at the surface during
the late 20th century. The observed change in the latter half of the 20th century, shown by the black time series
in the left panels, is larger than expected from just internal variability. Simulations driven only by natural forcings
(yellow and blue lines in the upper left panel) fail to reproduce late 20th century global warming at the surface with
a spatial pattern of change (upper right) completely different from the observed pattern of change (middle right).
Simulations including both natural and human-caused forcings provide a much better representation of the time
rate of change (lower left) and spatial pattern (lower right) of observed surface temperature change.
Both panels on the left show that computer models reproduce the naturally forced surface cooling observed for a
year or two after major volcanic eruptions, such as occurred in 1982 and 1991. Natural forcing simulations capture
the short-lived temperature changes following eruptions, but only the natural + human caused forcing simulations
simulate the longer-lived warming trend.
A more complete attribution assessment would examine temperature above the surface, and possibly other climate
variables, in addition to the surface temperature results shown in FAQ 10.1, Figure 1. The fingerprint patterns associated with individual forcings become easier to distinguish when more variables are considered in the assessment.

159
FAQ 10.1 (continued)
Overall, FAQ 10.1, Figure 1 shows that the pattern of observed temperature change is significantly different than
the pattern of response to natural forcings alone. The simulated response to all forcings, including human-caused
forcings, provides a good match to the observed changes at the surface. We cannot correctly simulate recent
observed climate change without including the response to human-caused forcings, including greenhouse gases,
stratospheric ozone, and aerosols. Natural causes of change are still at work in the climate system, but recent trends
in temperature are largely attributable to human-caused forcing.
FAQ
1.5
Natural forcing
90N
1.0
CMIP3
CMIP5
observations
0.5
-0.5
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
1.0
45N
45S
90S
180
0.0
1.5
Natural forcing
Natural and Human forcing

CMIP3
CMIP5
observations
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
90N
90W
90E
180
90W
90E
180
90W
90E
180
Observed trend 1951-2010
45N
0
45S
90S
180
90N
Natural and Human forcing
45N
0
45S
90S
180
-2 -1
0
1
2
Trend (C per period)
FAQ 10.1, Figure 1 | (Left) Time series of global and annual-averaged surface temperature change from 1860 to 2010. The top left panel shows results from two
ensemble of climate models driven with just natural forcings, shown as thin blue and yellow lines; ensemble average temperature changes are thick blue and red lines.
Three different observed estimates are shown as black lines. The lower left panel shows simulations by the same models, but driven with both natural forcing and
human-induced changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. (Right) Spatial patterns of local surface temperature trends from 1951 to 2010. The upper panel shows the
pattern of trends from a large ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations driven with just natural forcings. The bottom panel
shows trends from a corresponding ensemble of simulations driven with natural + human forcings. The middle panel shows the pattern of observed trends from the
Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set 4 (HadCRUT4) during this period.
160
FAQ 10.2 | When Will Human Influences on Climate Become Obvious on Local Scales?
Human-caused warming is already becoming locally obvious on land in some tropical regions, especially during the
warm part of the year. Warming should become obvious in middle latitudesduring summer at firstwithin the
next several decades. The trend is expected to emerge more slowly there, especially during winter, because natural
climate variability increases with distance from the equator and during the cold season. Temperature trends already
detected in many regions have been attributed to human influence. Temperature-sensitive climate variables, such
as Arctic sea ice, also show detected trends attributable to human influence.
Warming trends associated with global change are generally more evident in averages of global temperature than
in time series of local temperature (local here refers generally to individual locations, or small regional averages).
This is because most of the local variability of local climate is averaged away in the global mean. Multi-decadal
warming trends detected in many regions are considered to be outside the range of trends one might expect from
natural internal variability of the climate system, but such trends will only become obvious when the local mean climate emerges from the noise of year-to-year variability. How quickly this happens depends on both the rate of the
warming trend and the amount of local variability. Future warming trends cannot be predicted precisely, especially
at local scales, so estimates of the future time of emergence of a warming trend cannot be made with precision.
In some tropical regions, the warming trend has already emerged from local variability (FAQ 10.2, Figure 1). This
happens more quickly in the tropics because there is less temperature variability there than in other parts of the
globe. Projected warming may not emerge in middle latitudes until the mid-21st centuryeven though warming
trends there are largerbecause local temperature variability is substantially greater there than in the tropics. On a
seasonal basis, local temperature variability tends to be smaller in summer than in winter. Warming therefore tends
to emerge first in the warm part of the year, even in regions where the warming trend is larger in winter, such as in
central Eurasia in FAQ 10.2, Figure 1.
FAQ
Variables other than land surface temperature, including some oceanic regions, also show rates of long-term change
different from natural variability. For example, Arctic sea ice extent is declining very rapidly, and already shows a
human influence. On the other hand, local precipitation trends are very hard to detect because at most locations
the variability in precipitation is quite large. The probability of record-setting warm summer temperatures has
increased throughout much of the Northern Hemisphere . High temperatures presently considered extreme are
projected to become closer to the norm over the coming decades. The probabilities of other extreme events, including some cold spells, have lessened.
In the present climate, individual extreme weather events cannot be unambiguously ascribed to climate change,
since such events could have happened in an unchanged climate. However the probability of occurrence of such
events could have changed significantly at a particular location. Human-induced increases in greenhouse gases are
estimated to have contributed substantially to the probability of some heatwaves. Similarly, climate model studies
suggest that increased greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation
events found over parts of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the probability of many other extreme weather
events may not have changed substantially. Therefore, it is incorrect to ascribe every new weather record to climate
change.
The date of future emergence of projected warming trends also depends on local climate variability, which can
temporarily increase or decrease temperatures. Furthermore, the projected local temperature curves shown in FAQ
10.2, Figure 1 are based on multiple climate model simulations forced by the same assumed future emissions scenario. A different rate of atmospheric greenhouse gas accumulation would cause a different warming trend, so the
spread of model warming projections (the coloured shading in FAQ 10.2, Figure 1) would be wider if the figure
included a spread of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The increase required for summer temperature change to
emerge from 20th century local variability (regardless of the rate of change) is depicted on the central map in FAQ
10.2, Figure 1.
A full answer to the question of when human influence on local climate will become obvious depends on the
strength of evidence one considers sufficient to render something obvious. The most convincing scientific evidence
for the effect of climate change on local scales comes from analysing the global picture, and from the wealth of
evidence from across the climate system linking many observed changes to human influence. (continued on next page)
161
4
0
-4
-8
1940
1980 2020
Year
2060
2100
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
1900
1940
1980 2020
Year
2060
2100
JJA temperature anomaly (C)
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
1900
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
FAQ
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
1980 2020
Year
2060
2100
8
4
0
-4
-8
1900
8
4
0
-4
-8
1940
1980 2020
Year
2060
2100
1940
DJF temperature anomaly (C)
8
4
0
-4
-8
1900
8
4
0
-4
-8
0.2
Global temperature increase (C) needed for temperatures

in summer at individual locations to emerge from the
envelope of early 20th century variability
12
FAQ 10.2, Figure 1 | Time series of projected temperature change shown at four representative locations for summer (red curves, representing June, July and August
at sites in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere or December, January and February in the Southern Hemisphere) and winter (blue curves). Each time series is surrounded
by an envelope of projected changes (pink for the local warm season, blue for the local cold season) yielded by 24 different model simulations, emerging from a grey
envelope of natural local variability simulated by the models using early 20th century conditions. The warming signal emerges first in the tropics during summer. The
central map shows the global temperature increase (C) needed for temperatures in summer at individual locations to emerge from the envelope of early 20th century
variability. Note that warm colours denote the smallest needed temperature increase, hence earliest time of emergence. All calculations are based on Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate model simulations forced by the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions scenario.
Envelopes of projected change and natural variability are defined as 2 standard deviations. (Adapted and updated from Mahlstein et al., 2011.)
162
FAQ 11.1 | If You Cannot Predict the Weather Next Month, How Can You Predict Climate
for the Coming Decade?
Although weather and climate are intertwined, they are in fact different things. Weather is defined as the state of
the atmosphere at a given time and place, and can change from hour to hour and day to day. Climate, on the other
hand, generally refers to the statistics of weather conditions over a decade or more.
An ability to predict future climate without the need to accurately predict weather is more commonplace that it
might first seem. For example, at the end of spring, it can be accurately predicted that the average air temperature
over the coming summer in Melbourne (for example) will very likely be higher than the average temperature during
the most recent springeven though the day-to-day weather during the coming summer cannot be predicted with
accuracy beyond a week or so. This simple example illustrates that factors existin this case the seasonal cycle in
solar radiation reaching the Southern Hemispherethat can underpin skill in predicting changes in climate over a
coming period that does not depend on accuracy in predicting weather over the same period.
The statistics of weather conditions used to define climate include long-term averages of air temperature and
rainfall, as well as statistics of their variability, such as the standard deviation of year-to-year rainfall variability
from the long-term average, or the frequency of days below 5C. Averages of climate variables over long periods
of time are called climatological averages. They can apply to individual months, seasons or the year as a whole. A
climate prediction will address questions like: How likely will it be that the average temperature during the coming
summer will be higher than the long-term average of past summers? or: How likely will it be that the next decade
will be warmer than past decades? More specifically, a climate prediction might provide an answer to the question:
What is the probability that temperature (in China, for instance) averaged over the next ten years will exceed the
temperature in China averaged over the past 30 years? Climate predictions do not provide forecasts of the detailed
day-to-day evolution of future weather. Instead, they provide probabilities of long-term changes to the statistics of
future climatic variables.
FAQ
Weather forecasts, on the other hand, provide predictions of day-to-day weather for specific times in the future.
They help to address questions like: Will it rain tomorrow? Sometimes, weather forecasts are given in terms of probabilities. For example, the weather forecast might state that: the likelihood of rainfall in Apia tomorrow is 75%.
To make accurate weather predictions, forecasters need highly detailed information about the current state of the
atmosphere. The chaotic nature of the atmosphere means that even the tiniest error in the depiction of initial conditions typically leads to inaccurate forecasts beyond a week or so. This is the so-called butterfly effect.
Climate scientists do not attempt or claim to predict the detailed future evolution of the weather over coming
seasons, years or decades. There is, on the other hand, a sound scientific basis for supposing that aspects of climate
can be predicted, albeit imprecisely, despite the butterfly effect. For example, increases in long-lived atmospheric
greenhouse gas concentrations tend to increase surface temperature in future decades. Thus, information from the
past can and does help predict future climate.
Some types of naturally occurring so-called internal variability canin theory at leastextend the capacity to
predict future climate. Internal climatic variability arises from natural instabilities in the climate system. If such
variability includes or causes extensive, long-lived, upper ocean temperature anomalies, this will drive changes in
the overlying atmosphere, both locally and remotely. The El Nio-Southern Oscillation phenomenon is probably
the most famous example of this kind of internal variability. Variability linked to the El Nio-Southern Oscillation
unfolds in a partially predictable fashion. The butterfly effect is present, but it takes longer to strongly influence
some of the variability linked to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.
Meteorological services and other agencies have exploited this. They have developed seasonal-to-interannual prediction systems that enable them to routinely predict seasonal climate anomalies with demonstrable predictive skill.
The skill varies markedly from place to place and variable to variable. Skill tends to diminish the further the prediction delves into the future and in some locations there is no skill at all. Skill is used here in its technical sense: it is a
measure of how much greater the accuracy of a prediction is, compared with the accuracy of some typically simple
prediction method like assuming that recent anomalies will persist during the period being predicted.
Weather, seasonal-to-interannual and decadal prediction systems are similar in many ways (e.g., they all incorporate the same mathematical equations for the atmosphere, they all need to specify initial conditions to kick-start
163
predictions, and they are all subject to limits on forecast accuracy imposed by the butterfly effect). However, decadal
prediction, unlike weather and seasonal-to-interannual prediction, is still in its infancy. Decadal prediction systems
nevertheless exhibit a degree of skill in hindcasting near-surface temperature over much of the globe out to at least
nine years. A hindcast is a prediction of a past event in which only observations prior to the event are fed into
the prediction system used to make the prediction. The bulk of this skill is thought to arise from external forcing.
External forcing is a term used by climate scientists to refer to a forcing agent outside the climate system causing
a change in the climate system. This includes increases in the concentration of long-lived greenhouse gases.
Theory indicates that skill in predicting decadal precipitation should be less than the skill in predicting decadal surface temperature, and hindcast performance is consistent with this expectation.
Current research is aimed at improving decadal prediction systems, and increasing the understanding of the reasons
for any apparent skill. Ascertaining the degree to which the extra information from internal variability actually
translates to increased skill is a key issue. While prediction systems are expected to improve over coming decades,
the chaotic nature of the climate system and the resulting butterfly effect will always impose unavoidable limits
on predictive skill. Other sources of uncertainty exist. For example, as volcanic eruptions can influence climate but
their timing and magnitude cannot be predicted, future eruptions provide one of a number of other sources of
uncertainty. Additionally, the shortness of the period with enough oceanic data to initialize and assess decadal
predictions presents a major challenge.
Finally, note that decadal prediction systems are designed to exploit both externally forced and internally generated sources of predictability. Climate scientists distinguish between decadal predictions and decadal projections. Projections exploit only the predictive capacity arising from external forcing. While previous IPCC Assessment Reports
focussed exclusively on projections, this report also assesses decadal prediction research and its scientific basis.
FAQ
164
FAQ 11.2 | How Do Volcanic Eruptions Affect Climate and Our Ability to Predict Climate?
Large volcanic eruptions affect the climate by injecting sulphur dioxide gas into the upper atmosphere (also called
stratosphere), which reacts with water to form clouds of sulphuric acid droplets. These clouds reflect sunlight back
to space, preventing its energy from reaching the Earths surface, thus cooling it, along with the lower atmosphere.
These upper atmospheric sulphuric acid clouds also locally absorb energy from the Sun, the Earth and the lower
atmosphere, which heats the upper atmosphere (see FAQ 11.2, Figure 1). In terms of surface cooling, the 1991
Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines, for example, injected about 20 million tons of sulphur dioxide (SO2) into
the stratosphere, cooling the Earth by about 0.5C for up to a year. Globally, eruptions also reduce precipitation,
because the reduced incoming shortwave at the surface is compensated by a reduction in latent heating (i.e., in
evaporation and hence rainfall).
For the purposes of predicting climate, an eruption causing significant global surface cooling and upper atmospheric heating for the next year or so can be expected. The problem is that, while a volcano that has become more
active can be detected, the precise timing of an eruption, or the amount of SO2 injected into the upper atmosphere
and how it might disperse cannot be predicted. This is a source of uncertainty in climate predictions.
Large volcanic eruptions produce lots of particles, called ash or tephra. However, these particles fall out of the
atmosphere quickly, within days or weeks, so they do not affect the global climate. For example, the 1980 Mount
St. Helens eruption affected surface temperatures in the northwest USA for several days but, because it emitted
little SO2 into the stratosphere, it had no detectable global climate impacts. If large, high-latitude eruptions inject
sulphur into the stratosphere, they will have an effect only in the hemisphere where they erupted, and the effects
will only last a year at most, as the stratospheric cloud they produce only has a lifetime of a few months.
FAQ
Tropical or subtropical volcanoes produce more global surface or tropospheric cooling. This is because the resulting
sulphuric acid cloud in the upper atmosphere lasts between one and two years, and can cover much of the globe.
However, their regional climatic impacts are difficult to
predict, because dispersion of stratospheric sulphate
aerosols depends heavily on atmospheric wind conditions at the time of eruption. Furthermore, the surface
Decreased upward flux of
energy due to absorption by
cooling effect is typically not uniform: because contiaerosol cloud and emission
nents cool more than the ocean, the summer monsoon
at a low temperature
can weaken, reducing rain over Asia and Africa. The cliReflected
matic response is complicated further by the fact that
Stratospheric Aerosols
solar flux
upper atmospheric clouds from tropical eruptions also
(Lifetime 1-2 Years)
Heating due
absorb sunlight and heat from the Earth, which producHeating due to
to absorption
Reactions
absorption of
of energy by
es more upper atmosphere warming in the tropics than
on cloud
energy from the
cloud
at high latitudes.
particles
Earth and lower
The largest volcanic eruptions of the past 250 years stimulated scientific study. After the 1783 Laki eruption in
Iceland, there were record warm summer temperatures
in Europe, followed by a very cold winter. Two large
eruptions, an unidentified one in 1809, and the 1815
Tambora eruption caused the Year Without a Summer
in 1816. Agricultural failures in Europe and the USA that
year led to food shortages, famine and riots.
The largest eruption in more than 50 years, that of
Agung in 1963, led to many modern studies, including
observations and climate model calculations. Two subsequent large eruptions, El Chichn in 1982 and Pinatubo
in 1991, inspired the work that led to our current understanding of the effects of volcanic eruptions on climate.
destroy ozone
atmosphere
Increased
downward flux of
energy due to
emission from
aerosol cloud
Cooling because
reduction of sunlight
overwhelms any
increased
downward energy
emitted by volcanic
cloud
Tropospheric Aerosols
(Lifetime 1-3 Weeks)
FAQ 11.2, Figure 1 | Schematic of how large tropical or sub-tropical volcanoes

impact upper atmospheric (stratospheric) and lower atmospheric (tropospheric)
temperatures.
165
Volcanic clouds remain in the stratosphere only for a couple of years, so their impact on climate is correspondingly
short. But the impacts of consecutive large eruptions can last longer: for example, at the end of the 13th century
there were four large eruptionsone every ten years. The first, in 1258 CE, was the largest in 1000 years. That
sequence of eruptions cooled the North Atlantic Ocean and Arctic sea ice. Another period of interest is the three
large, and several lesser, volcanic events during 19631991 (see Chapter 8 for how these eruptions affected atmospheric composition and reduced shortwave radiation at the ground.
Volcanologists can detect when a volcano becomes more active, but they cannot predict whether it will erupt,
or if it does, how much sulphur it might inject into the stratosphere. Nevertheless, volcanoes affect the ability to
predict climate in three distinct ways. First, if a violent eruption injects significant volumes of sulphur dioxide into
the stratosphere, this effect can be included in climate predictions. There are substantial challenges and sources of
uncertainty involved, such as collecting good observations of the volcanic cloud, and calculating how it will move
and change during its lifetime. But, based on observations, and successful modelling of recent eruptions, some of
the effects of large eruptions can be included in predictions.
The second effect is that volcanic eruptions are a potential source of uncertainty in our predictions. Eruptions
cannot be predicted in advance, but they will occur, causing short-term climatic impacts on both local and global
scales. In principle, this potential uncertainty can be accounted for by including random eruptions, or eruptions
based on some scenario in our near-term ensemble climate predictions. This area of research needs further exploration. The future projections in this report do not include future volcanic eruptions.
Third, the historical climate record can be used, along with estimates of observed sulphate aerosols, to test the
fidelity of our climate simulations. While the climatic response to explosive volcanic eruptions is a useful analogue
for some other climatic forcings, there are limitations. For example, successfully simulating the impact of one eruption can help validate models used for seasonal and interannual predictions. But in this way not all the mechanisms
involved in global warming over the next century can be validated, because these involve long term oceanic feedbacks, which have a longer time scale than the response to individual volcanic eruptions.
FAQ
166
FAQ 12.1 | Why Are So Many Models and Scenarios Used to Project Climate Change?
Future climate is partly determined by the magnitude of future emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and other
natural and man-made forcings. These forcings are external to the climate system, but modify how it behaves.
Future climate is shaped by the Earths response to those forcings, along with internal variability inherent in the
climate system. A range of assumptions about the magnitude and pace of future emissions helps scientists develop
different emission scenarios, upon which climate model projections are based. Different climate models, meanwhile, provide alternative representations of the Earths response to those forcings, and of natural climate variability. Together, ensembles of models, simulating the response to a range of different scenarios, map out a range of
possible futures, and help us understand their uncertainties.
Predicting socioeconomic development is arguably even more difficult than predicting the evolution of a physical
system. It entails predicting human behaviour, policy choices, technological advances, international competition
and cooperation. The common approach is to use scenarios of plausible future socioeconomic development, from
which future emissions of greenhouse gases and other forcing agents are derived. It has not, in general, been possible to assign likelihoods to individual forcing scenarios. Rather, a set of alternatives is used to span a range of
possibilities. The outcomes from different forcing scenarios provide policymakers with alternatives and a range of
possible futures to consider.
Internal fluctuations in climate are spontaneously generated by interactions between components such as the
atmosphere and the ocean. In the case of near-term climate change, they may eclipse the effect of external perturbations, like greenhouse gas increases (see Chapter 11). Over the longer term, however, the effect of external
forcings is expected to dominate instead. Climate model simulations project that, after a few decades, different
scenarios of future anthropogenic greenhouse gases and other forcing agentsand the climate systems response
to themwill differently affect the change in mean global temperature (FAQ 12.1, Figure 1, left panel). Therefore,
evaluating the consequences of those various scenarios and responses is of paramount importance, especially when
policy decisions are considered.
FAQ
Climate models are built on the basis of the physical principles governing our climate system, and empirical understanding, and represent the complex, interacting processes needed to simulate climate and climate change, both
past and future. Analogues from past observations, or extrapolations from recent trends, are inadequate strategies
for producing projections, because the future will not necessarily be a simple continuation of what we have seen
thus far.
Although it is possible to write down the equations of fluid motion that determine the behaviour of the atmosphere and ocean, it is impossible to solve them without using numerical algorithms through computer model
simulation, similarly to how aircraft engineering relies on numerical simulations of similar types of equations. Also,
many small-scale physical, biological and chemical processes, such as cloud processes, cannot be described by those
equations, either because we lack the computational ability to describe the system at a fine enough resolution
to directly simulate these processes or because we still have a partial scientific understanding of the mechanisms
driving these processes. Those need instead to be approximated by so-called parameterizations within the climate
models, through which a mathematical relation between directly simulated and approximated quantities is established, often on the basis of observed behaviour.
There are various alternative and equally plausible numerical representations, solutions and approximations for
modelling the climate system, given the limitations in computing and observations. This diversity is considered a
healthy aspect of the climate modelling community, and results in a range of plausible climate change projections
at global and regional scales. This range provides a basis for quantifying uncertainty in the projections, but because
the number of models is relatively small, and the contribution of model output to public archives is voluntary,
the sampling of possible futures is neither systematic nor comprehensive. Also, some inadequacies persist that are
common to all models; different models have different strength and weaknesses; it is not yet clear which aspects
of the quality of the simulations that can be evaluated through observations should guide our evaluation of future
model simulations. (continued on next page)
167
Models of varying complexity are commonly used for different projection problems. A faster model with lower
resolution, or a simplified description of some climate processes, may be used in cases where long multi-century
simulations are required, or where multiple realizations are needed. Simplified models can adequately represent
large-scale average quantities, like global average temperature, but finer details, like regional precipitation, can be
simulated only by complex models.
The coordination of model experiments and output by groups such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
(CMIP), the World Climate Research Program and its Working Group on Climate Models has seen the science community step up efforts to evaluate the ability of models to simulate past and current climate and to compare future
climate change projections. The multi-model approach is now a standard technique used by the climate science
community to assess projections of a specific climate variable.
FAQ 12.1, Figure 1, right panels, shows the temperature response by the end of the 21st century for two illustrative
models and the highest and lowest RCP scenarios. Models agree on large-scale patterns of warming at the surface,
for example, that the land is going to warm faster than ocean, and the Arctic will warm faster than the tropics. But
they differ both in the magnitude of their global response for the same scenario, and in small scale, regional aspects
of their response. The magnitude of Arctic amplification, for instance, varies among different models, and a subset
of models show a weaker warming or slight cooling in the North Atlantic as a result of the reduction in deepwater
formation and shifts in ocean currents.
There are inevitable uncertainties in future external forcings, and the climate systems response to them, which
are further complicated by internally generated variability. The use of multiple scenarios and models have become
a standard choice in order to assess and characterize them, thus allowing us to describe a wide range of possible
future evolutions of the Earths climate.
FAQ
Global surface temperature change (C)
Possible temperature responses in 2081-2100 to

high emission scenario RCP8.5
Model mean global

mean temperature
change for high
emission scenario
RCP8.5
Possible temperature responses in 2081-2100 to
low emission scenario RCP2.6
Model mean global

mean temperature
change for low
emission scenario
RCP2.6
-2 -1.5 -1-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 3 4 5 7
9 11
(C)
FAQ 12.1, Figure 1 | Global mean temperature change averaged across all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models (relative to 19862005)
for the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP2.6 (dark blue), RCP4.5 (light blue), RCP6.0 (orange) and RCP8.5 (red); 32, 42, 25 and 39
models were used respectively for these 4 scenarios. Likely ranges for global temperature change by the end of the 21st centuryare indicated by vertical bars. Note that
these ranges apply to the difference between two 20-year means, 20812100 relative to 19862005, which accounts for the bars being centred at a smaller value than
the end point of the annual trajectories. For the highest (RCP8.5) and lowest (RCP2.6) scenario, illustrative maps of surface temperature change at the end of the 21st
century (20812100 relative to 19862005) are shown for two CMIP5 models. These models are chosen to show a rather broad range of response, but this particular
set is not representative of any measure of model response uncertainty.
168
FAQ 12.2 | How Will the Earths Water Cycle Change?

The flow and storage of water in the Earths climate system are highly variable, but changes beyond those due to
natural variability are expected by the end of the current century. In a warmer world, there will be net increases in
rainfall, surface evaporation and plant transpiration. However, there will be substantial differences in the changes
between locations. Some places will experience more precipitation and an accumulation of water on land. In others,
the amount of water will decrease, due to regional drying and loss of snow and ice cover.
The water cycle consists of water stored on the Earth in all its phases, along with the movement of water through
the Earths climate system. In the atmosphere, water occurs primarily as a gaswater vapourbut it also occurs as
ice and liquid water in clouds. The ocean, of course, is primarily liquid water, but the ocean is also partly covered by
ice in polar regions. Terrestrial water in liquid form appears as surface watersuch as lakes and riverssoil moisture
and groundwater. Solid terrestrial water occurs in ice sheets, glaciers, snow and ice on the surface and in permafrost
and seasonally frozen soil.
Statements about future climate sometimes say that the water cycle will accelerate, but this can be misleading, for
strictly speaking, it implies that the cycling of water will occur more and more quickly with time and at all locations.
Parts of the world will indeed experience intensification of the water cycle, with larger transports of water and
more rapid movement of water into and out of storage reservoirs. However, other parts of the climate system will
experience substantial depletion of water, and thus less movement of water. Some stores of water may even vanish.
As the Earth warms, some general features of change will occur simply in response to a warmer climate. Those
changes are governed by the amount of energy that global warming adds to the climate system. Ice in all forms will
melt more rapidly, and be less pervasive. For example, for some simulations assessed in this report, summer Arctic
sea ice disappears before the middle of this century. The atmosphere will have more water vapour, and observations
and model results indicate that it already does. By the end of the 21st century, the average amount of water vapour
in the atmosphere could increase by 5 to 25%, depending on the amount of human emissions of greenhouse gases
and radiatively active particles, such as smoke. Water will evaporate more quickly from the surface. Sea level will
rise due to expansion of warming ocean waters and melting land ice flowing into the ocean (see FAQ 13.2).
FAQ
These general changes are modified by the complexity of the climate system, so that they should not be expected
to occur equally in all locations or at the same pace. For example, circulation of water in the atmosphere, on land
and in the ocean can change as climate changes, concentrating water in some locations and depleting it in others.
The changes also may vary throughout the year: some seasons tend to be wetter than others. Thus, model simulations assessed in this report show that winter precipitation in northern Asia may increase by more than 50%,
whereas summer precipitation there is projected to hardly change. Humans also intervene directly in the water
cycle, through water management and changes in land use. Changing population distributions and water practices
would produce further changes in the water cycle.
Water cycle processes can occur over minutes, hours, days and longer, and over distances from metres to kilometres
and greater. Variability on these scales is typically greater than for temperature, so climate changes in precipitation
are harder to discern. Despite this complexity, projections of future climate show changes that are common across
many models and climate forcing scenarios. Similar changes were reported in the AR4. These results collectively
suggest well understood mechanisms of change, even if magnitudes vary with model and forcing. We focus here
on changes over land, where changes in the water cycle have their largest impact on human and natural systems.
Projected climate changes from simulations assessed in this report (shown schematically in FAQ 12.2, Figure 1) generally show an increase in precipitation in parts of the deep tropics and polar latitudes that could exceed 50% by the
end of the 21st century under the most extreme emissions scenario. In contrast, large areas of the subtropics could
have decreases of 30% or more. In the tropics, these changes appear to be governed by increases in atmospheric
water vapour and changes in atmospheric circulation that further concentrate water vapour in the tropics and thus
promote more tropical rainfall. In the subtropics, these circulation changes simultaneously promote less rainfall
despite warming in these regions. Because the subtropics are home to most of the worlds deserts, these changes
imply increasing aridity in already dry areas, and possible expansion of deserts. (continued on next page)
169
Increases at higher latitudes are governed by warmer temperatures, which allow more water in the atmosphere and
thus, more water that can precipitate. The warmer climate also allows storm systems in the extratropics to transport
more water vapour into the higher latitudes, without requiring substantial changes in typical wind strength. As
indicated above, high latitude changes are more pronounced during the colder seasons.
Whether land becomes drier or wetter depends partly on precipitation changes, but also on changes in surface
evaporation and transpiration from plants (together called evapotranspiration). Because a warmer atmosphere
can have more water vapour, it can induce greater evapotranspiration, given sufficient terrestrial water. However,
increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reduces a plants tendency to transpire into the atmosphere, partly
counteracting the effect of warming.
In the tropics, increased evapotranspiration tends to counteract the effects of increased precipitation on soil moisture, whereas in the subtropics, already low amounts of soil moisture allow for little change in evapotranspiration.
At higher latitudes, the increased precipitation generally outweighs increased evapotranspiration in projected climates, yielding increased annual mean runoff, but mixed changes in soil moisture. As implied by circulation changes
in FAQ 12.2, Figure 1, boundaries of high or low moisture regions may also shift.
A further complicating factor is the character of rainfall. Model projections show rainfall becoming more intense,
in part because more moisture will be present in the atmosphere. Thus, for simulations assessed in this report, over
much of the land, 1-day precipitation events that currently occur on average every 20 years could occur every 10
years or even more frequently by the end of the 21st century. At the same time, projections also show that precipitation events overall will tend to occur less frequently.
These changes produce two seemingly contradictory
effects: more intense downpours, leading to more
floods, yet longer dry periods between rain events,
leading to more drought.
Wetter
FAQ
At high latitudes and at high elevation, further changes

occur due to the loss of frozen water. Some of these are
resolved by the present generation of global climate
models (GCMs), and some changes can only be inferred
because they involve features such as glaciers, which
typically are not resolved or included in the models. The
warmer climate means that snow tends to start accumulating later in the fall, and melt earlier in the spring.
Simulations assessed in this report show March to April
snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to
decrease by approximately 10 to 30% on average by
the end of this century, depending on the greenhouse
gas scenario. The earlier spring melt alters the timing
of peak springtime flow in rivers receiving snowmelt.
As a result, later flow rates will decrease, potentially
affecting water resource management. These features
appear in GCM simulations.
Drier
ey
l
ad
H Wetter
Drier
Land
evaporation
Wetter
Runoff
FAQ 12.2, Figure 1 | Schematic diagram of projected changes in major components of the water cycle. The blue arrows indicate major types of water movement changes through the Earths climate system: poleward water transport by
extratropical winds, evaporation from the surface and runoff from the land to
the oceans. The shaded regions denote areas more likely to become drier or
wetter. Yellow arrows indicate an important atmospheric circulation change by
the Hadley Circulation, whose upward motion promotes tropical rainfall, while
suppressing subtropical rainfall. Model projections indicate that the Hadley
Circulation will shift its downward branch poleward in both the Northern and
Southern Hemispheres, with associated drying. Wetter conditions are projected
at high latitudes, because a warmer atmosphere will allow greater precipitation,
with greater movement of water into these regions.
Loss of permafrost will allow moisture to seep more

deeply into the ground, but it will also allow the
ground to warm, which could enhance evapotranspiration. However, most current GCMs do not include all the processes needed to simulate well permafrost changes. Studies analysing soils freezing or using GCM output to drive
more detailed land models suggest substantial permafrost loss by the end of this century. In addition, even though
current GCMs do not explicitly include glacier evolution, we can expect that glaciers will continue to recede, and
the volume of water they provide to rivers in the summer may dwindle in some locations as they disappear. Loss of
glaciers will also contribute to a reduction in springtime river flow. However, if annual mean precipitation increaseseither as snow or rainthen these results do not necessarily mean that annual mean river flow will decrease.
170
FAQ 12.3 | What Would Happen to Future Climate if We Stopped Emissions Today?
Stopping emissions today is a scenario that is not plausible, but it is one of several idealized cases that provide
insight into the response of the climate system and carbon cycle. As a result of the multiple time scales in the climate
system, the relation between change in emissions and climate response is quite complex, with some changes still
occurring long after emissions ceased. Models and process understanding show that as a result of the large ocean
inertia and the long lifetime of many greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, much of the warming would
persist for centuries after greenhouse gas emissions have stopped.
When emitted in the atmosphere, greenhouse gases get removed through chemical reactions with other reactive
components or, in the case of carbon dioxide (CO2), get exchanged with the ocean and the land. These processes
characterize the lifetime of the gas in the atmosphere, defined as the time it takes for a concentration pulse to
decrease by a factor of e (2.71). How long greenhouse gases and aerosols persist in the atmosphere varies over a
wide range, from days to thousands of years. For example, aerosols have a lifetime of weeks, methane (CH4) of
about 10 years, nitrous oxide (N2O) of about 100 years and hexafluoroethane (C2F6) of about 10,000 years. CO2 is
more complicated as it is removed from the atmosphere through multiple physical and biogeochemical processes in
the ocean and the land; all operating at different time scales. For an emission pulse of about 1000 PgC, about half
is removed within a few decades, but the remaining fraction stays in the atmosphere for much longer. About 15 to
40% of the CO2 pulse is still in the atmosphere after 1000 years.
As a result of the significant lifetimes of major anthropogenic greenhouse gases, the increased atmospheric concentration due to past emissions will persist long after emissions are ceased. Concentration of greenhouse gases would
not return immediately to their pre-industrial levels if emissions were halted. Methane concentration would return
to values close to pre-industrial level in about 50 years, N2O concentrations would need several centuries, while
CO2 would essentially never come back to its pre-industrial level on time scales relevant for our society. Changes
in emissions of short-lived species like aerosols on the other hand would result in nearly instantaneous changes in
their concentrations.
Even if anthropogenic greenhouses gas emissions were

halted now, the radiative forcing due to these longlived greenhouse gases concentrations would only
slowly decrease in the future, at a rate determined
by the lifetime of the gas (see above). Moreover, the
Global surface warming (C)
The climate system response to the greenhouse gases

and aerosols forcing is characterized by an inertia,
driven mainly by the ocean. The ocean has a very large
capacity of absorbing heat and a slow mixing between
the surface and the deep ocean. This means that it will
take several centuries for the whole ocean to warm up
and to reach equilibrium with the altered radiative forcing. The surface ocean (and hence the continents) will
continue to warm until it reaches a surface temperature
in equilibrium with this new radiative forcing. The AR4
showed that if concentration of greenhouse gases were
held constant at present day level, the Earth surface
would still continue to warm by about 0.6C over the
21st century relative to the year 2000. This is the climate
commitment to current concentrations (or constant
composition commitment), shown in grey in FAQ 12.3,
Figure 1. Constant emissions at current levels would further increase the atmospheric concentration and result
in much more warming than observed so far (FAQ 12.3,
Figure 1, red lines).
Ensemble Range:
90%
85%
80%
68%
50%
FAQ
Constant Emissions
2
Zero Emissions
1
0
1950
Constant Forcing
2000
2050
Year
2100
2150
FAQ 12.3, Figure 1 | Projections based on the energy balance carbon

cycle model Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas-Induced Climate
Change (MAGICC) for constant atmospheric composition (constant forcing,
grey), constant emissions (red) and zero future emissions (blue) starting in
2010, with estimates of uncertainty. Figure adapted from Hare and Meinshausen (2006) based on the calibration of a simple carbon cycle climate
model to all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and
Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP)
models (Meinshausen et al., 2011a; Meinshausen et al., 2011b). Results are
based on a full transient simulation starting from pre-industrial and using
all radiative forcing components. The thin black line and shading denote the
observed warming and uncertainty.
171
climate response of the Earth System to that radiative forcing would be even slower. Global temperature would
not respond quickly to the greenhouse gas concentration changes. Eliminating CO2 emissions only would lead to
near constant temperature for many centuries. Eliminating short-lived negative forcings from sulphate aerosols at
the same time (e.g., by air pollution reduction measures) would cause a temporary warming of a few tenths of a
degree, as shown in blue in FAQ 12.3, Figure 1. Setting all emissions to zero would therefore, after a short warming,
lead to a near stabilization of the climate for multiple centuries. This is called the commitment from past emissions
(or zero future emission commitment). The concentration of GHG would decrease and hence the radiative forcing
as well, but the inertia of the climate system would delay the temperature response.
As a consequence of the large inertia in the climate and carbon cycle, the long-term global temperature is largely
controlled by total CO2 emissions that have accumulated over time, irrespective of the time when they were emitted. Limiting global warming below a given level (e.g., 2C above pre-industrial) therefore implies a given budget
of CO2, that is, higher emissions earlier implies stronger reductions later. A higher climate target allows for a higher
CO2 concentration peak, and hence larger cumulative CO2 emissions (e.g., permitting a delay in the necessary emission reduction).
Global temperature is a useful aggregate number to describe the magnitude of climate change, but not all changes
will scale linearly global temperature. Changes in the water cycle for example also depend on the type of forcing
(e.g., greenhouse gases, aerosols, land use change), slower components of the Earth system such as sea level rise
and ice sheet would take much longer to respond, and there may be critical thresholds or abrupt or irreversible
changes in the climate system.
FAQ
172
FAQ 13.1 | Why Does Local Sea Level Change Differ from the Global Average?
Shifting surface winds, the expansion of warming ocean water, and the addition of melting ice can alter ocean currents which, in turn, lead to changes in sea level that vary from place to place. Past and present variations in the
distribution of land ice affect the shape and gravitational field of the Earth, which also cause regional fluctuations
in sea level. Additional variations in sea level are caused by the influence of more localized processes such as sediment compaction and tectonics.
Along any coast, vertical motion of either the sea or land surface can cause changes in sea level relative to the land
(known as relative sea level). For example, a local change can be caused by an increase in sea surface height, or by a
decrease in land height. Over relatively short time spans (hours to years), the influence of tides, storms and climatic
variabilitysuch as El Niodominates sea level variations. Earthquakes and landslides can also have an effect by
causing changes in land height and, sometimes, tsunamis. Over longer time spans (decades to centuries), the influence of climate changewith consequent changes in volume of ocean water and land iceis the main contributor
to sea level change in most regions. Over these longer time scales, various processes may also cause vertical motion
of the land surface, which can also result in substantial changes in relative sea level.
Since the late 20th century, satellite measurements of the height of the ocean surface relative to the center of the
Earth (known as geocentric sea level) show differing rates of geocentric sea level change around the world (see
FAQ 13.1, Figure 1). For example, in the western Pacific Ocean, rates were about three times greater than the global
mean value of about 3 mm per year from 1993 to 2012. In contrast, those in the eastern Pacific Ocean are lower
than the global mean value, with much of the west coast of the Americas experiencing a fall in sea surface height
over the same period. (continued on next page)
Year
1980
2000
1960
Year
1980
2000
1960
Year
1980
2000
250
0
250
500
Charlottetown
San Francisco
Stockholm
Charlottetown
San Francisco
Stockholm
Manila
Antofagasta
Sea level (mm)
500
250
Pago Pago
Manila
Antofagasta
Pago Pago
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Sea level change (mm yr-1)
Sea level (mm)
500
1960
FAQ
0
-250
-500
1960
1980
Year
2000
1960
1980
Year
2000
1960
1980
Year
2000
FAQ13.1, Figure 1 | Map of rates of change in sea surface height (geocentric sea level) for the period 19932012 from satellite altimetry. Also shown are relative
sea level changes (grey lines) from selected tide gauge stations for the period 19502012. For comparison, an estimate of global mean sea level change is also shown
(red lines) with each tide gauge time series. The relatively large, short-term oscillations in local sea level (grey lines) are due to the natural climate variability described
in the main text. For example, the large, regular deviations at Pago Pago are associated with the El Nio-Southern Oscillation.
173
Much of the spatial variation shown in FAQ 13.1, Figure 1 is a result of natural climate variabilitysuch as El Nio and
the Pacific Decadal Oscillationover time scales from about a year to several decades. These climate variations alter
surface winds, ocean currents, temperature and salinity, and hence affect sea level. The influence of these processes
will continue during the 21st century, and will be superimposed on the spatial pattern of sea level change associated
with longer term climate change, which also arises through changes in surface winds, ocean currents, temperature
and salinity, as well as ocean volume. However, in contrast to the natural variability, the longer term trends accumulate over time and so are expected to dominate over the 21st century. The resulting rates of geocentric sea level
change over this longer period may therefore exhibit a very different pattern from that shown in FAQ 13.1, Figure 1.
Tide gauges measure relative sea level, and so they include changes resulting from vertical motion of both the land
and the sea surface. Over many coastal regions, vertical land motion is small, and so the long-term rate of sea level
change recorded by coastal and island tide gauges is similar to the global mean value (see records at San Francisco
and Pago Pago in FAQ 13.1, Figure 1). In some regions, vertical land motion has had an important influence. For
example, the steady fall in sea level recorded at Stockholm (FAQ 13.1, Figure 1) is caused by uplift of this region
after the melting of a large (>1 km thick) continental ice sheet at the end of the last Ice Age, between ~20,000 and
~9000 years ago. Such ongoing land deformation as a response to the melting of ancient ice sheets is a significant
contributor to regional sea level changes in North America and northwest Eurasia, which were covered by large
continental ice sheets during the peak of the last Ice Age.
In other regions, this process can also lead to land subsidence, which elevates relative sea levels, as it has at Charlottetown, where a relatively large increase has been observed, compared to the global mean rate (FAQ 13.1, Figure
1). Vertical land motion due to movement of the Earths tectonic plates can also cause departures from the global
mean sea level trend in some areasmost significantly, those located near active subduction zones, where one tectonic plate slips beneath another. For the case of Antofagasta (FAQ 13.1, Figure 1) this appears to result in steady
land uplift and therefore relative sea level fall.
FAQ
In addition to regional influences of vertical land motion

on relative sea level change, some processes lead to land
motion that is rapid but highly localized. For example,
the greater rate of rise relative to the global mean at
Manila (FAQ 13.1, Figure 1) is dominated by land subsidence caused by intensive groundwater pumping. Land
subsidence due to natural and anthropogenic processes,
such as the extraction of groundwater or hydrocarbons,
is common in many coastal regions, particularly in large
river deltas.
3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
It is commonly assumed that melting ice from glaciers

Sea level change (mm yr )
or the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets would cause
FAQ13.1, Figure 2 | Model output showing relative sea level change due to
globally uniform sea level rise, much like filling a bath
melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet at rates of
tub with water. In fact, such melting results in region0.5 mm yr1 each (giving a global mean value for sea level rise of 1 mm yr1).
The modelled sea level changes are less than the global mean value in areas
al variations in sea level due to a variety of processes,
near the melting ice but enhanced further afield. (Adapted from Milne et al.,
including changes in ocean currents, winds, the Earths
2009)
gravity field and land height. For example, computer
models that simulate these latter two processes predict a regional fall in relative sea level around the melting ice
sheets, because the gravitational attraction between ice and ocean water is reduced, and the land tends to rise
as the ice melts (FAQ 13.1, Figure 2). However, further away from the ice sheet melting, sea level rise is enhanced,
compared to the global average value.
-1
In summary, a variety of processes drive height changes of the ocean surface and ocean floor, resulting in distinct
spatial patterns of sea level change at local to regional scales. The combination of these processes produces a
complex pattern of total sea level change, which varies through time as the relative contribution of each process
changes. The global average change is a useful single value that reflects the contribution of climatic processes (e.g.,
land-ice melting and ocean warming), and represents a good estimate of sea level change at many coastal locations. At the same time, however, where the various regional processes result in a strong signal, there can be large
departures from the global average value.
174
FAQ 13.2 | Will the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets Contribute to Sea Level Change over
the Rest of the Century?
The Greenland, West and East Antarctic ice sheets are the largest reservoirs of freshwater on the planet. As such,
they have contributed to sea level change over geological and recent times. They gain mass through accumulation
(snowfall) and lose it by surface ablation (mostly ice melt) and outflow at their marine boundaries, either to a floating ice shelf, or directly to the ocean through iceberg calving. Increases in accumulation cause global mean sea level
to fall, while increases in surface ablation and outflow cause it to rise. Fluctuations in these mass fluxes depend
on a range of processes, both within the ice sheet and without, in the atmosphere and oceans. Over the course of
this century, however, sources of mass loss appear set to exceed sources of mass gain, so that a continuing positive
contribution to global sea level can be expected. This FAQ summarizes current research on the topic and provides
indicative magnitudes for the various end-of-century (2081-2100 with respect to 1986-2005) sea level contributions
from the full assessment, which are reported as the two-in-three probability level across all emission scenarios.
Over millennia, the slow horizontal flow of an ice sheet carries mass from areas of net accumulation (generally, in
the high-elevation interior) to areas of net loss (generally, the low-elevation periphery and the coastal perimeter).
At present, Greenland loses roughly half of its accumulated ice by surface ablation, and half by calving. Antarctica,
on the other hand, loses virtually all its accumulation by calving and submarine melt from its fringing ice shelves. Ice
shelves are floating, so their loss has only a negligible direct effect on sea level, although they can affect sea level
indirectly by altering the mass budget of their parent ice sheet (see below).
In East Antarctica, some studies using satellite radar altimetry suggest that snowfall has increased, but recent
atmospheric modelling and satellite measurements of changes in gravity find no significant increase. This apparent
disagreement may be because relatively small long-term trends are masked by the strong interannual variability
of snowfall. Projections suggest a substantial increase in 21st century Antarctic snowfall, mainly because a warmer
atmosphere would be able to carry more moisture into polar regions. Regional changes in atmospheric circulation
probably play a secondary role. For the whole of the Antarctic ice sheet, this process is projected to contribute
between 0 and 70 mm to sea level fall.
FAQ
Currently, air temperatures around Antarctica are too cold for substantial surface ablation. Field and satellite-based
observations, however, indicate enhanced outflowmanifested as ice-surface loweringin a few localized coastal
regions. These areas (Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers in West Antarctica, and Totten and Cook Glaciers in East
Antarctica) all lie within kilometre-deep bedrock troughs towards the edge of Antarcticas continental shelf. The
increase in outflow is thought to have been triggered by regional changes in ocean circulation, bringing warmer
water in contact with floating ice shelves.
On the more northerly Antarctic Peninsula, there is a well-documented record of ice-shelf collapse, which appears
to be related to the increased surface melting caused by atmospheric warming over recent decades. The subsequent
thinning of glaciers draining into these ice shelves has had a positivebut minoreffect on sea level, as will any
further such events on the Peninsula. Regional projections of 21st century atmospheric temperature change suggest
that this process will probably not affect the stability of the large ice shelves of both the West and East Antarctica,
although these ice shelves may be threatened by future oceanic change (see below).
Estimates of the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheets to sea level over the last few decades vary widely, but
great strides have recently been made in reconciling the observations. There are strong indications that enhanced
outflow (primarily in West Antarctica) currently outweighs any increase in snow accumulation (mainly in East Antarctica), implying a tendency towards sea level rise. Before reliable projections of outflow over the 21st century can
be made with greater confidence, models that simulate ice flow need to be improved, especially of any changes in
the grounding line that separates floating ice from that resting on bedrock and of interactions between ice shelves
and the ocean. The concept of marine ice-sheet instability is based on the idea that the outflow from an ice sheet
resting on bedrock below sea level increases if ice at the grounding line is thicker and, therefore, faster flowing.
On bedrock that slopes downward towards the ice-sheet interior, this creates a vicious cycle of increased outflow,
causing ice at the grounding line to thin and go afloat. The grounding line then retreats down slope into thicker
ice that, in turn, drives further increases in outflow. This feedback could potentially result in the rapid loss of parts
of the ice sheet, as grounding lines retreat along troughs and basins that deepen towards the ice sheets interior.
175
Future climate forcing could trigger such an unstable collapse, which may then continue independently of climate.
This potential collapse might unfold over centuries for individual bedrock troughs in West Antarctica and sectors of
East Antarctica. Much research is focussed on understanding how important this theoretical concept is for those ice
sheets. Sea level could rise if the effects of marine instability become important, but there is not enough evidence
at present to unambiguously identify the precursor of such an unstable retreat. Change in outflow is projected
to contribute between 20 (i.e., fall) and 185 mm to sea level rise by year 2100, although the uncertain impact of
marine ice-sheet instability could increase this figure by several tenths of a metre. Overall, increased snowfall seems
set to only partially offset sea level rise caused by increased outflow.
In Greenland, mass loss through more surface ablation and outflow dominates a possible recent trend towards
increased accumulation in the interior. Estimated mass loss due to surface ablation has doubled since the early
1990s. This trend is expected to continue over the next century as more of the ice sheet experiences surface ablation for longer periods. Indeed, projections for the 21st century suggest that increasing mass loss will dominate
over weakly increasing accumulation. The refreezing of melt water within the snow pack high up on the ice sheet
offers an important (though perhaps temporary) dampening effect on the relation between atmospheric warming
and mass loss.
Although the observed response of outlet glaciers is both complex and highly variable, iceberg calving from many
of Greenlands major outlet glaciers has increased substantially over the last decade, and constitutes an appreciable
additional mass loss. This seems to be related to the intrusion of warm water into the coastal seas around Greenland, but it is not clear whether this phenomenon is related to inter-decadal variability, such as the North Atlantic
FAQ
80W
8
0W
60
Sea level contribution
80N
20W
20
2
0 W
Sea level contribution
20E
17th
83rd
40E
(percentile)
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 (mm SLR)
<-150
0
(mm
m yr -1 w.e.))
>150
60S
S
70N
7
0N
60N
0
125
0N
N
60S
250
500
km
<-1000
40W
0
(mm yr -1 w.e.)
60N
>1000
250
500
140W
1000
km
160W
180
160E
140E
FAQ 13.2, Figure 1 | Illustrative synthesis of projected changes in SMB and outflow by 2100 for (a) Greenland and (b) Antarctic ice sheets. Colours shown on the
maps refer to projected SMB change between the start and end of the 21st century using the RACMO2 regional atmospheric climate model under future warming
scenarios A1B (Antarctic) and RCP4.5 (Greenland). For Greenland, average equilibrium line locations during both these time periods are shown in purple and green,
respectively. Ice-sheet margins and grounding lines are shown as black lines, as are ice-sheet sectors. For Greenland, results of flowline modelling for four major outlet
glaciers are shown as inserts, while for Antarctica the coloured rings reflect projected change in outflow based on a probabilistic extrapolation of observed trends. The
outer and inner radius of each ring indicate the upper and lower bounds of the two-thirds probability range of the contribution, respectively (scale in upper right); red
refers to mass loss (sea level rise) while blue refers to mass gain (sea level fall). Finally, the sea level contribution is shown for each ice sheet (insert located above
maps) with light grey referring to SMB (model experiment used to generate the SMB map is shown as a dashed line) and dark grey to outflow. All projections refer to
the two-in-three probability range across all scenarios.
176
Oscillation, or a longer term trend associated with greenhouse gasinduced warming. Projecting its effect on 21st
century outflow is therefore difficult, but it does highlight the apparent sensitivity of outflow to ocean warming.
The effects of more surface melt water on the lubrication of the ice sheets bed, and the ability of warmer ice to
deform more easily, may lead to greater rates of flow, but the link to recent increases in outflow is unclear. Change
in the net difference between surface ablation and accumulation is projected to contribute between 10 and 160
mm to sea level rise in 2081-2100 (relative to 1986-2005), while increased outflow is projected to contribute a further 10 to 70 mm (Table 13.5).
The Greenland ice sheet has contributed to a rise in global mean sea level over the last few decades, and this trend
is expected to increase during this century. Unlike Antarctica, Greenland has no known large-scale instabilities
that might generate an abrupt increase in sea level rise over the 21st century. A threshold may exist, however, so
that continued shrinkage might become irreversible over multi-centennial time scales, even if the climate were to
return to a pre-industrial state over centennial time scales. Although mass loss through the calving of icebergs may
increase in future decades, this process will eventually end when the ice margin retreats onto bedrock above sea
level where the bulk of the ice sheet resides.
FAQ
177
FAQ 14.1 | How is Climate Change Affecting Monsoons?

Monsoons are the most important mode of seasonal climate variation in the tropics, and are responsible for a large
fraction of the annual rainfall in many regions. Their strength and timing is related to atmospheric moisture content, landsea temperature contrast, land cover and use, atmospheric aerosol loadings and other factors. Overall,
monsoonal rainfall is projected to become more intense in future, and to affect larger areas, because atmospheric
moisture content increases with temperature. However, the localized effects of climate change on regional monsoon strength and variability are complex and more uncertain.
Monsoon rains fall over all tropical continents: Asia, Australia, the Americas and Africa. The monsoon circulation is
driven by the difference in temperature between land and sea, which varies seasonally with the distribution of solar
heating. The duration and amount of rainfall depends on the moisture content of the air, and on the configuration
and strength of the atmospheric circulation. The regional distribution of land and ocean also plays a role, as does
topography. For example, the Tibetan Plateauthrough variations in its snow cover and surface heatingmodulates the strength of the complex Asian monsoon systems. Where moist on-shore winds rise over mountains, as they
do in southwest India, monsoon rainfall is intensified. On the lee side of such mountains, it lessens.
Since the late 1970s, the East Asian summer monsoon has been weakening and not extending as far north as it used
to in earlier times , as a result of changes in the atmospheric circulation. That in turn has led to increasing drought
in northern China, but floods in the Yangtze River Valley farther south. In contrast, the Indo-Australian and Western Pacific monsoon systems show no coherent trends since the mid-20th century, but are strongly modulated by
the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Similarly, changes observed in the South American monsoon system over
the last few decades are strongly related to ENSO variability. Evidence of trends in the North American monsoon
system is limited, but a tendency towards heavier rainfalls on the northern side of the main monsoon region has
been observed. No systematic long-term trends have been observed in the behaviour of the Indian or the African
monsoons.
FAQ
The land surface warms more rapidly than the ocean surface, so that surface temperature contrast is increasing in
most regions. The tropical atmospheric overturning circulation, however, slows down on average as the climate
warms due to energy balance constraints in the tropical atmosphere. These changes in the atmospheric circulation
lead to regional changes in monsoon intensity, area and timing. There are a number of other effects as to how
(a) present
(b) future
solar radiation
solar radiation
weaker
circulation
changes
in aerosols
aerosols
land use
warm
land use
moisture
cool
warmer
more rain
enhanced moisture
warm
FAQ 14.1, Figure 1 | Schematic diagram illustrating the main ways that human activity influences monsoon rainfall. As the climate warms, increasing water vapour
transport from the ocean into land increases because warmer air contains more water vapour. This also increases the potential for heavy rainfalls. Warming-related
changes in large-scale circulation influence the strength and extent of the overall monsoon circulation. Land use change and atmospheric aerosol loading can also affect
the amount of solar radiation that is absorbed in the atmosphere and land, potentially moderating the landsea temperature difference.
179
climate change can influence monsoons. Surface heating varies with the intensity of solar radiation absorption,
which is itself affected by any land use changes that alter the reflectivity (albedo) of the land surface. Also, changing atmospheric aerosol loadings, such as air pollution, affect how much solar radiation reaches the ground, which
can change the monsoon circulation by altering summer solar heating of the land surface. Absorption of solar
radiation by aerosols, on the other hand, warms the atmosphere, changing the atmospheric heating distribution.
The strongest effect of climate change on the monsoons is the increase in atmospheric moisture associated with
warming of the atmosphere, resulting in an increase in total monsoon rainfall even if the strength of the monsoon
circulation weakens or does not change.
Climate model projections through the 21st century show an increase in total monsoon rainfall, largely due to
increasing atmospheric moisture content. The total surface area affected by the monsoons is projected to increase,
along with the general poleward expansion of the tropical regions. Climate models project from 5% to an approximately 15% increase of global monsoon rainfall depending on scenarios. Though total tropical monsoon rainfall
increases, some areas will receive less monsoon rainfall, due to weakening tropical wind circulations. Monsoon
onset dates are likely to be early or not to change much and the monsoon retreat dates are likely to delay, resulting
in lengthening of the monsoon season.
Future regional trends in monsoon intensity and timing remain uncertain in many parts of the world. Year-to-year
variations in the monsoons in many tropical regions are affected by ENSO. How ENSO will change in futureand
how its effects on monsoon will changealso remain uncertain. However, the projected overall increase in monsoon rainfall indicates a corresponding increase in the risk of extreme rain events in most regions.
FAQ
180
FAQ 14.2 | How Are Future Projections in Regional Climate Related to Projections of
Global Means?
The relationship between regional climate change and global mean change is complex. Regional climates vary
strongly with location and so respond differently to changes in global-scale influences. The global mean change is,
in effect, a convenient summary of many diverse regional climate responses.
Heat and moisture, and changes in them, are not evenly distributed across the globe for several reasons:
External forcings vary spatially (e.g., solar radiation depends on latitude, aerosol emissions have local sources,
land use changes regionally, etc.).
Surface conditions vary spatially, for example, land/sea contrast, topography, sea surface temperatures, soil moisture content.
Weather systems and ocean currents redistribute heat and moisture from one region to another.
Weather systems are associated with regionally important climate phenomena such as monsoons, tropical convergence zones, storm tracks and important modes of climate variability (e.g., El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO),
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), etc.). In addition to modulating regional warming, some climate phenomena are also projected to change in the future, which can lead to further impacts on
regional climates (see Table 14.3).
Projections of change in surface temperature and precipitation show large regional variations (FAQ 14.2, Figure 1).
Enhanced surface warming is projected to occur over the high-latitude continental regions and the Arctic ocean,
FAQ
(a)
(b)
(C per C)
(C per C)
0
0.25 0.5 0.75
1.25 1.5 1.75
0.5
1.5
(c)
(d)
(% per C)
-12
-9
-6
-3
(%)
0
0.5
1.5
12
FAQ 14.2, Figure 1 | Projected 21st century changes in annual mean and annual extremes (over land) of surface air temperature and precipitation: (a) mean surface
temperature per C of global mean change, (b) 90th percentile of daily maximum temperature per C of global average maximum temperature, (c) mean precipitation (in
% per C of global mean temperature change), and (d) fraction of days with precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile. Sources: Panels (a) and (c) projected changes
in means between 19862005 and 20812100 from CMIP5 simulations under RCP4.5 scenario (see Chapter 12, Figure 12.41); Panels (b) and (d) projected changes
in extremes over land between 19801999 and 20812100 (adapted from Figures 7 and 12 of Orlowsky and Seneviratne, 2012).
181
while over other oceans and lower latitudes changes are closer to the global mean (FAQ 14.2, Figure 1a). For
example, warming near the Great Lakes area of North America is projected to be about 50% greater than that
of the global mean warming. Similar large regional variations are also seen in the projected changes of more
extreme temperatures (FAQ 14.2, Figure 1b). Projected changes in precipitation are even more regionally variable
than changes in temperature (FAQ 14.2, Figure 1c, d), caused by modulation from climate phenomena such as the
monsoons and tropical convergence zones. Near-equatorial latitudes are projected to have increased mean precipitation, while regions on the poleward edges of the subtropics are projected to have reduced mean precipitation.
Higher latitude regions are projected to have increased mean precipitation and in particular more extreme precipitation from extratropical cyclones.
Polar regions illustrate the complexity of processes involved in regional climate change. Arctic warming is projected
to increase more than the global mean, mostly because the melting of ice and snow produces a regional feedback
by allowing more heat from the Sun to be absorbed. This gives rise to further warming, which encourages more
melting of ice and snow. However, the projected warming over the Antarctic continent and surrounding oceans is
less marked in part due to a stronger positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode. Westerly winds over the midlatitude southern oceans have increased over recent decades, driven by the combined effect of loss of stratospheric
ozone over Antarctica, and changes in the atmospheres temperature structure related to increased greenhouse
gas concentrations. This change in the Southern Annular Mode is well captured by climate models and has the
effect of reducing atmospheric heat transport to the Antarctic continent. Nevertheless, the Antarctic Peninsula is
still warming rapidly, because it extends far enough northwards to be influenced by the warm air masses of the
westerly wind belt.
FAQ
182
Glossary
Glossary
Editor:
Serge Planton (France)
This Glossary should be cited as:

IPCC, 2013: Annex III: Glossary [Planton, S. (ed.)]. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution
of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F.,
D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
185
Glossary
This glossary defines some specific terms as the Lead Authors intend
them to be interpreted in the context of this report. Red, italicized
words indicate that the term is defined in the Glossary.
Abrupt climate change A large-scale change in the climate system

that takes place over a few decades or less, persists (or is anticipated to
persist) for at least a few decades and causes substantial disruptions in
human and natural systems.
Active layer The layer of ground that is subject to annual thawing and
freezing in areas underlain by permafrost.
Adjustment time See Lifetime. See also Response time.
Glossary
Advection Transport of water or air along with its properties (e.g., temperature, chemical tracers) by winds or currents. Regarding the general
distinction between advection and convection, the former describes transport by large-scale motions of the atmosphere or ocean, while convection
describes the predominantly vertical, locally induced motions.
Aerosolradiation interaction An interaction of aerosol directly

with radiation produce radiative effects. In this report two levels of radiative forcing (or effect) are distinguished:
Radiative forcing (or effect) due to aerosolradiation interactions (RFari) The radiative forcing (or radiative effect, if the perturbation is internally generated) of an aerosol perturbation due directly
to aerosolradiation interactions, with all environmental variables
remaining unaffected. Traditionally known in the literature as the direct
aerosol forcing (or effect).
Effective radiative forcing (or effect) due to aerosol-radiation
interactions (ERFari) The final radiative forcing (or effect) from
the aerosol perturbation including the rapid adjustments to the initial change in radiation. These adjustments include changes in cloud
caused by the impact of the radiative heating on convective or largerscale atmospheric circulations, traditionally known as semi-direct aerosol forcing (or effect).
The total effective radiative forcing due to both aerosolcloud and
aerosolradiation interactions is denoted aerosol effective radiative
forcing (ERFari+aci). See also Aerosolcloud interaction.
Aerosol A suspension of airborne solid or liquid particles, with a typical

size between a few nanometres and 10 m that reside in the atmosphere
for at least several hours. For convenience the term aerosol, which includes
both the particles and the suspending gas, is often used in this report in
its plural form to mean aerosol particles. Aerosols may be of either natural
or anthropogenic origin. Aerosols may influence climate in several ways:
directly through scattering and absorbing radiation (see Aerosolradiation
interaction) and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei or ice
nuclei, modifying the optical properties and lifetime of clouds (see Aerosolcloud interaction).
Afforestation Planting of new forests on lands that historically have

not contained forests. For a discussion of the term forest and related terms
such as afforestation, reforestation and deforestation, see the IPCC Special
Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC, 2000). See also
the report on Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types (IPCC, 2003).
Aerosolcloud interaction A process by which a perturbation to

aerosol affects the microphysical properties and evolution of clouds
through the aerosol role as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei, particularly in ways that affect radiation or precipitation; such processes can
also include the effect of clouds and precipitation on aerosol. The aerosol
perturbation can be anthropogenic or come from some natural source. The
radiative forcing from such interactions has traditionally been attributed
to numerous indirect aerosol effects, but in this report, only two levels of
radiative forcing (or effect) are distinguished:
Air mass A widespread body of air, the approximately homogeneous

properties of which (1) have been established while that air was situated
over a particular region of the Earths surface, and (2) undergo specific
modifications while in transit away from the source region (AMS, 2000).
Radiative forcing (or effect) due to aerosolcloud interactions

(RFaci) The radiative forcing (or radiative effect, if the perturbation is
internally generated) due to the change in number or size distribution
of cloud droplets or ice crystals that is the proximate result of an aerosol perturbation, with other variables (in particular total cloud water
content) remaining equal. In liquid clouds, an increase in cloud droplet
concentration and surface area would increase the cloud albedo. This
effect is also known as the cloud albedo effect, first indirect effect, or
Twomey effect. It is a largely theoretical concept that cannot readily be
isolated in observations or comprehensive process models due to the
rapidity and ubiquity of rapid adjustments.
Effective radiative forcing (or effect) due to aerosolcloud interactions (ERFaci) The final radiative forcing (or effect) from the aerosol perturbation including the rapid adjustments to the initial change
in droplet or crystal formation rate. These adjustments include changes
in the strength of convection, precipitation efficiency, cloud fraction,
lifetime or water content of clouds, and the formation or suppression
of clouds in remote areas due to altered circulations.
The total effective radiative forcing due to both aerosolcloud and
aerosolradiation interactions is denoted aerosol effective radiative
forcing (ERFari+aci). See also Aerosolradiation interaction.
186
Airborne fraction The fraction of total CO2 emissions (from fossil fuel
and land use change) remaining in the atmosphere.
Albedo The fraction of solar radiation reflected by a surface or object,

often expressed as a percentage. Snow-covered surfaces have a high
albedo, the albedo of soils ranges from high to low, and vegetation-covered surfaces and oceans have a low albedo. The Earths planetary albedo
varies mainly through varying cloudiness, snow, ice, leaf area and and
cover changes.
Alkalinity A measure of the capacity of an aqueous solution to neutralize acids.
Altimetry A technique for measuring the height of the Earths surface
with respect to the geocentre of the Earth within a defined terrestrial reference frame (geocentric sea level).
Annular modes See Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and Southern
Annular Mode (SAM).
Anthropogenic Resulting from or produced by human activities.
Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation/Variability (AMO/AMV) A
multi-decadal (65- to 75-year) fluctuation in the North Atlantic, in which
sea surface temperatures showed warm phases during roughly 1860 to
1880 and 1930 to 1960 and cool phases during 1905 to 1925 and 1970 to
1990 with a range of approximately 0.4C. See AMO Index, Box 2.5.
Atmosphere The gaseous envelope surrounding the Earth. The dry
atmosphere consists almost entirely of nitrogen (78.1% volume mixing
ratio) and oxygen (20.9% volume mixing ratio), together with a number
of trace gases, such as argon (0.93% volume mixing ratio), helium and
radiatively active greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (0.035%
Glossary
volume mixing ratio) and ozone. In addition, the atmosphere contains the
greenhouse gas water vapour, whose amounts are highly variable but typically around 1% volume mixing ratio. The atmosphere also contains clouds
and aerosols.
AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) See
Climate model.
Atmospheric boundary layer The atmospheric layer adjacent to the
Earths surface that is affected by friction against that boundary surface,
and possibly by transport of heat and other variables across that surface
(AMS, 2000). The lowest 100 m of the boundary layer (about 10% of the
boundary layer thickness), where mechanical generation of turbulence is
dominant, is called the surface boundary layer or surface layer.
Atmospheric lifetime See Lifetime.
Attribution See Detection and attribution.
Autotrophic respiration Respiration by photosynthetic (see photo
synthesis) organisms (e.g., plants and algaes).
Basal lubrication Reduction of friction at the base of an ice sheet
or glacier due to lubrication by meltwater. This can allow the glacier or
ice sheet to slide over its base. Meltwater may be produced by pressureinduced melting, friction or geothermal heat, or surface melt may drain to
the base through holes in the ice.
Baseline/reference The baseline (or reference) is the state against
which change is measured. A baseline period is the period relative to which
anomalies are computed. The baseline concentration of a trace gas is that
measured at a location not influenced by local anthropogenic emissions.
Biological pump The process of transporting carbon from the oceans

surface layers to the deep ocean by the primary production of marine phytoplankton, which converts dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and nutrients
into organic matter through photosynthesis. This natural cycle is limited
primarily by the availability of light and nutrients such as phosphate, nitrate
and silicic acid, and micronutrients, such as iron. See also Solubility pump.
Biomass The total mass of living organisms in a given area or volume;
dead plant material can be included as dead biomass. Biomass burning is
the burning of living and dead vegetation.
Biome A biome is a major and distinct regional element of the biosphere, typically consisting of several ecosystems (e.g., forests, rivers,
ponds, swamps within a region). Biomes are characterized by typical communities of plants and animals.
Biosphere (terrestrial and marine) The part of the Earth system
comprising all ecosystems and living organisms, in the atmosphere, on
land (terrestrial biosphere) or in the oceans (marine biosphere), including
derived dead organic matter, such as litter, soil organic matter and oceanic
detritus.
Blocking Associated with persistent, slow-moving high-pressure systems that obstruct the prevailing westerly winds in the middle and high
latitudes and the normal eastward progress of extratropical transient
storm systems. It is an important component of the intraseasonal climate
variability in the extratropics and can cause long-lived weather conditions
such as cold spells in winter and summer heat waves.
BrewerDobson circulation The meridional overturning circulation
of the stratosphere transporting air upward in the tropics, poleward to the
winter hemisphere, and downward at polar and subpolar latitudes. The
BrewerDobson circulation is driven by the interaction between upward
propagating planetary waves and the mean flow.
Burden The total mass of a gaseous substance of concern in the atmosphere.
C Stable isotope of carbon having an atomic weight of approximately
13. Measurements of the ratio of 13C/12C in carbon dioxide molecules are
used to infer the importance of different carbon cycle and climate processes and the size of the terrestrial carbon reservoir.
13
C Unstable isotope of carbon having an atomic weight of approximately 14, and a half-life of about 5700 years. It is often used for dating
purposes going back some 40 kyr. Its variation in time is affected by the
magnetic fields of the Sun and Earth, which influence its production from
cosmic rays (see Cosmogenic radioisotopes).
14
Calving The breaking off of discrete pieces of ice from a glacier, ice
sheet or an ice shelf into lake or seawater, producing icebergs. This is a
form of mass loss from an ice body. See also Mass balance/budget (of
glaciers or ice sheets).
Carbonaceous aerosol Aerosol consisting predominantly of organic
substances and black carbon.
Carbon cycle The term used to describe the flow of carbon (in various
forms, e.g., as carbon dioxide) through the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial
and marine biosphere and lithosphere. In this report, the reference unit for
the global carbon cycle is GtC or equivalently PgC (1015g).
Carbon dioxide (CO2) A naturally occurring gas, also a by-product of
burning fossil fuels from fossil carbon deposits, such as oil, gas and coal,
of burning biomass, of land use changes and of industrial processes (e.g.,
cement production). It is the principal anthropogenic greenhouse gas that
affects the Earths radiative balance. It is the reference gas against which
other greenhouse gases are measured and therefore has a Global Warming
Potential of 1.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization The enhancement of the growth
of plants as a result of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration.
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) Carbon Dioxide Removal methods refer to a set of techniques that aim to remove CO2 directly from the
atmosphere by either (1) increasing natural sinks for carbon or (2) using
chemical engineering to remove the CO2, with the intent of reducing the
atmospheric CO2 concentration. CDR methods involve the ocean, land and
technical systems, including such methods as iron fertilization, large-scale
afforestation and direct capture of CO2 from the atmosphere using engineered chemical means. Some CDR methods fall under the category of
geoengineering, though this may not be the case for others, with the distinction being based on the magnitude, scale, and impact of the particular
CDR activities. The boundary between CDR and mitigation is not clear and
187
Glossary
Bayesian method/approach A Bayesian method is a method by

which a statistical analysis of an unknown or uncertain quantity(ies) is carried out in two steps. First, a prior probability distribution for the uncertain
quantity(ies) is formulated on the basis of existing knowledge (either by
eliciting expert opinion or by using existing data and studies). At this first
stage, an element of subjectivity may influence the choice, but in many
cases, the prior probability distribution can be chosen as neutrally as possible, in order not to influence the final outcome of the analysis. In the
second step, newly acquired data are used to update the prior distribution
into a posterior distribution. The update is carried out either through an
analytic computation or though numeric approximation, using a theorem
formulated by and named after the British mathematician Thomas Bayes
(17021761).
Black carbon (BC) Operationally defined aerosol species based on

measurement of light absorption and chemical reactivity and/or thermal
stability. It is sometimes referred to as soot.
Glossary
there could be some overlap between the two given current definitions
(IPCC, 2012, p. 2). See also Solar Radiation Management (SRM).
CFC See Halocarbons.
Chaotic A dynamical system such as the climate system, governed by
nonlinear deterministic equations (see Nonlinearity), may exhibit erratic or
chaotic behaviour in the sense that very small changes in the initial state
of the system in time lead to large and apparently unpredictable changes
in its temporal evolution. Such chaotic behaviour limits the predictability of the state of a nonlinear dynamical system at specific future times,
although changes in its statistics may still be predictable given changes in
the system parameters or boundary conditions.
Charcoal Material resulting from charring of biomass, usually retaining some of the microscopic texture typical of plant tissues; chemically it
consists mainly of carbon with a disturbed graphitic structure, with lesser
amounts of oxygen and hydrogen.
Chronology Arrangement of events according to dates or times of
occurrence.
Clathrate (methane) A partly frozen slushy mix of methane gas and
ice, usually found in sediments.
Glossary
ClausiusClapeyron equation/relationship The thermodynamic

relationship between small changes in temperature and vapour pressure
in an equilibrium system with condensed phases present. For trace gases
such as water vapour, this relation gives the increase in equilibrium (or
saturation) water vapour pressure per unit change in air temperature.
Climate Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average
weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the
mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period for
averaging these variables is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization. The relevant quantities are most often surface variables
such as temperature, precipitation and wind. Climate in a wider sense is
the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system.
Climatecarbon cycle feedback A climate feedback involving
changes in the properties of land and ocean carbon cycle in response to climate change. In the ocean, changes in oceanic temperature and circulation
could affect the atmosphereocean CO2 flux; on the continents, climate
change could affect plant photosynthesis and soil microbial respiration
and hence the flux of CO2 between the atmosphere and the land biosphere.
Climate change Climate change refers to a change in the state of the
climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes
in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an
extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due
to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of
the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes
in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. Note that the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines
climate change as: a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over
comparable time periods. The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between
climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric
composition, and climate variability attributable to natural causes. See also
Climate change commitment, Detection and Attribution.
Climate change commitment Due to the thermal inertia of the
ocean and slow processes in the cryosphere and land surfaces, the climate
would continue to change even if the atmospheric composition were held
fixed at todays values. Past change in atmospheric composition leads to
a committed climate change, which continues for as long as a radiative
188
imbalance persists and until all components of the climate system have
adjusted to a new state. The further change in temperature after the composition of the atmosphere is held constant is referred to as the constant
composition temperature commitment or simply committed warming or
warming commitment. Climate change commitment includes other future
changes, for example, in the hydrological cycle, in extreme weather events,
in extreme climate events, and in sea level change. The constant emission
commitment is the committed climate change that would result from keeping anthropogenic emissions constant and the zero emission commitment
is the climate change commitment when emissions are set to zero. See also
Climate change.
Climate feedback An interaction in which a perturbation in one
climate quantity causes a change in a second, and the change in the
second quantity ultimately leads to an additional change in the first. A
negative feedback is one in which the initial perturbation is weakened
by the changes it causes; a positive feedback is one in which the initial
perturbation is enhanced. In this Assessment Report, a somewhat narrower
definition is often used in which the climate quantity that is perturbed is
the global mean surface temperature, which in turn causes changes in the
global radiation budget. In either case, the initial perturbation can either
be externally forced or arise as part of internal variability. See also Climate
Feedback Parameter.
Climate Feedback Parameter A way to quantify the radiative
response of the climate system to a global mean surface temperature
change induced by a radiative forcing. It varies as the inverse of the effective climate sensitivity. Formally, the Climate Feedback Parameter (a; units:
W m2 C1) is defined as: a = (Q F)/T, where Q is the global mean
radiative forcing, T is the global mean air surface temperature, F is the
heat flux into the ocean and represents a change with respect to an
unperturbed climate.
Climate forecast See Climate prediction.
Climate index A time series constructed from climate variables that
provides an aggregate summary of the state of the climate system. For
example, the difference between sea level pressure in Iceland and the
Azores provides a simple yet useful historical NAO index. Because of their
optimal properties, climate indices are often defined using principal componentslinear combinations of climate variables at different locations
that have maximum variance subject to certain normalisation constraints
(e.g., the NAM and SAM indices which are principal components of Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere gridded pressure anomalies,
respectively). See Box 2.5 for a summary of definitions for established
observational indices. See also Climate pattern.
Climate model (spectrum or hierarchy) A numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical and biological
properties of its components, their interactions and feedback processes,
and accounting for some of its known properties. The climate system can
be represented by models of varying complexity, that is, for any one component or combination of components a spectrum or hierarchy of models
can be identified, differing in such aspects as the number of spatial dimensions, the extent to which physical, chemical or biological processes are
explicitly represented or the level at which empirical parametrizations
are involved. Coupled AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Models
(AOGCMs) provide a representation of the climate system that is near or
at the most comprehensive end of the spectrum currently available. There
is an evolution towards more complex models with interactive chemistry
and biology. Climate models are applied as a research tool to study and
simulate the climate, and for operational purposes, including monthly, seasonal and interannual climate predictions. See also Earth System Model,
Earth-System Model of Intermediate Complexity, Energy Balance Model,
Process-based Model, Regional Climate Model and Semi-empirical model.
Glossary
Climate pattern A set of spatially varying coefficients obtained by

projection (regression) of climate variables onto a climate index time
series. When the climate index is a principal component, the climate pattern is an eigenvector of the covariance matrix, referred to as an Empirical
Orthogonal Function (EOF) in climate science.
Climate prediction A climate prediction or climate forecast is the
result of an attempt to produce (starting from a particular state of the
climate system) an estimate of the actual evolution of the climate in
the future, for example, at seasonal, interannual or decadal time scales.
Because the future evolution of the climate system may be highly sensitive
to initial conditions, such predictions are usually probabilistic in nature. See
also Climate projection, Climate scenario, Model initialization and Predictability.
Climate projection A climate projection is the simulated response of
the climate system to a scenario of future emission or concentration of
greenhouse gases and aerosols, generally derived using climate models.
Climate projections are distinguished from climate predictions by their
dependence on the emission/concentration/radiative forcing scenario
used, which is in turn based on assumptions concerning, for example,
future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may
not be realized. See also Climate scenario.
Climate regime A state of the climate system that occurs more frequently than nearby states due to either more persistence or more frequent
recurrence. In other words, a cluster in climate state space associated with
a local maximum in the probability density function.
Climate response See Climate sensitivity.
Climate sensitivity In IPCC reports, equilibrium climate sensitivity

(units: C) refers to the equilibrium (steady state) change in the annual
global mean surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric
equivalent carbon dioxide concentration. Owing to computational constraints, the equilibrium climate sensitivity in a climate model is sometimes
estimated by running an atmospheric general circulation model coupled
to a mixed-layer ocean model, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is
largely determined by atmospheric processes. Efficient models can be run
to equilibrium with a dynamic ocean. The climate sensitivity parameter
(units: C (W m2)1) refers to the equilibrium change in the annual global
mean surface temperature following a unit change in radiative forcing.
The effective climate sensitivity (units: C) is an estimate of the global
mean surface temperature response to doubled carbon dioxide concentration that is evaluated from model output or observations for evolving non-equilibrium conditions. It is a measure of the strengths of the
climate feedbacks at a particular time and may vary with forcing history
and climate state, and therefore may differ from equilibrium climate
sensitivity.
The transient climate response (units: C) is the change in the global
mean surface temperature, averaged over a 20-year period, centred at
the time of atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling, in a climate model
simulation in which CO2 increases at 1% yr1. It is a measure of the
strength and rapidity of the surface temperature response to greenhouse gas forcing.
Climate system The climate system is the highly complex system

consisting of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere,
the cryosphere, the lithosphere and the biosphere, and the interactions
between them. The climate system evolves in time under the influence of
its own internal dynamics and because of external forcings such as volcanic eruptions, solar variations and anthropogenic forcings such as the
changing composition of the atmosphere and land use change.
Climate variability Climate variability refers to variations in the mean
state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of
extremes, etc.) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales beyond
that of individual weather events. Variability may be due to natural internal
processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations
in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability). See also
Climate change.
Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) The subset of aerosol particles
that serve as an initial site for the condensation of liquid water, which can
lead to the formation of cloud droplets, under typical cloud formation conditions. The main factor that determines which aerosol particles are CCN at
a given supersaturation is their size.
Cloud feedback A climate feedback involving changes in any of the
properties of clouds as a response to a change in the local or global mean
surface temperature. Understanding cloud feedbacks and determining
their magnitude and sign require an understanding of how a change in climate may affect the spectrum of cloud types, the cloud fraction and height,
the radiative properties of clouds, and finally the Earths radiation budget.
At present, cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty in
climate sensitivity estimates. See also Cloud radiative effect.
Cloud radiative effect The radiative effect of clouds relative to the
identical situation without clouds. In previous IPCC reports this was called
cloud radiative forcing, but that terminology is inconsistent with other uses
of the forcing term and is not maintained in this report. See also Cloud
feedback.
CO2-equivalent See Equivalent carbon dioxide.
Cold days/cold nights Days where maximum temperature, or nights
where minimum temperature, falls below the 10th percentile, where the
respective temperature distributions are generally defined with respect to
the 19611990 reference period. For the corresponding indices, see Box
2.4.
Compatible emissions Earth System Models that simulate the land
and ocean carbon cycle can calculate CO2 emissions that are compatible
with a given atmospheric CO2 concentration trajectory. The compatible
emissions over a given period of time are equal to the increase of carbon
over that same period of time in the sum of the three active reservoirs: the
atmosphere, the land and the ocean.
Confidence The validity of a finding based on the type, amount, quality,
and consistency of evidence (e.g., mechanistic understanding, theory, data,
models, expert judgment) and on the degree of agreement. Confidence is
expressed qualitatively (Mastrandrea et al., 2010). See Figure 1.11 for the
levels of confidence and Table 1.1 for the list of likelihood qualifiers. See
also Uncertainty.
Convection Vertical motion driven by buoyancy forces arising from
static instability, usually caused by near-surface cooling or increases in
salinity in the case of the ocean and near-surface warming or cloud-top
radiative cooling in the case of the atmosphere. In the atmosphere convection gives rise to cumulus clouds and precipitation and is effective at
both scavenging and vertically transporting chemical species. In the ocean
convection can carry surface waters to deep within the ocean.
189
Glossary
Climate scenario A plausible and often simplified representation of

the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological
relationships that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating
the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change, often serving as input to impact models. Climate projections often serve as the raw
material for constructing climate scenarios, but climate scenarios usually
require additional information such as the observed current climate. A climate change scenario is the difference between a climate scenario and the
current climate. See also Emission scenario, scenario.
Climate sensitivity parameter See climate sensitivity.
Glossary
Cosmogenic radioisotopes Rare radioactive isotopes that are created by the interaction of a high-energy cosmic ray particles with atoms
nuclei. They are often used as indicator of solar activity which modulates
the cosmic rays intensity or as tracers of atmospheric transport processes,
and are also called cosmogenic radionuclides.
Cryosphere All regions on and beneath the surface of the Earth and
ocean where water is in solid form, including sea ice, lake ice, river ice,
snow cover, glaciers and ice sheets, and frozen ground (which includes
permafrost).
DansgaardOeschger events Abrupt events characterized in Greenland ice cores and in palaeoclimate records from the nearby North Atlantic
by a cold glacial state, followed by a rapid transition to a warmer phase,
and a slow cooling back to glacial conditions. Counterparts of Dansgaard
Oeschger events are observed in other regions as well.
Deforestation Conversion of forest to non-forest. For a discussion of
the term forest and related terms such as afforestation, reforestation, and
deforestation see the IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change
and Forestry (IPCC, 2000). See also the report on Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced
Degradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types (IPCC,
2003).
Glossary
Deglaciation/glacial termination Transitions from full glacial conditions (ice age) to warm interglacials characterized by global warming
and sea level rise due to change in continental ice volume.
Detection and attribution Detection of change is defined as the
process of demonstrating that climate or a system affected by climate has
changed in some defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for
that change. An identified change is detected in observations if its likelihood of occurrence by chance due to internal variability alone is determined to be small, for example, <10%. Attribution is defined as the process of evaluating the relative contributions of multiple causal factors to
a change or event with an assignment of statistical confidence (Hegerl et
al., 2010).
Diatoms Silt-sized algae that live in surface waters of lakes, rivers and
oceans and form shells of opal. Their species distribution in ocean cores is
often related to past sea surface temperatures.
Direct (aerosol) effect See Aerosolradiation interaction.
Direct Air Capture Chemical process by which a pure CO2 stream is
produced by capturing CO2 from the ambient air.
Diurnal temperature range The difference between the maximum
and minimum temperature during a 24-hour period.
Dobson Unit (DU) A unit to measure the total amount of ozone in a
vertical column above the Earths surface (total column ozone). The number
of Dobson Units is the thickness in units of 105 m that the ozone column
would occupy if compressed into a layer of uniform density at a pressure
of 1013 hPa and a temperature of 0C. One DU corresponds to a column of
ozone containing 2.69 1020 molecules per square metre. A typical value
for the amount of ozone in a column of the Earths atmosphere, although
very variable, is 300 DU.
Downscaling Downscaling is a method that derives local- to regionalscale (10 to 100 km) information from larger-scale models or data analyses.
Two main methods exist: dynamical downscaling and empirical/statistical
downscaling. The dynamical method uses the output of regional climate
models, global models with variable spatial resolution or high-resolution
global models. The empirical/statistical methods develop statistical relationships that link the large-scale atmospheric variables with local/regional
190
climate variables. In all cases, the quality of the driving model remains an
important limitation on the quality of the downscaled information.
Drought A period of abnormally dry weather long enough to cause a
serious hydrological imbalance. Drought is a relative term; therefore any
discussion in terms of precipitation deficit must refer to the particular
precipitation-related activity that is under discussion. For example, shortage of precipitation during the growing season impinges on crop production or ecosystem function in general (due to soil moisture drought, also
termed agricultural drought), and during the runoff and percolation season
primarily affects water supplies (hydrological drought). Storage changes
in soil moisture and groundwater are also affected by increases in actual
evapotranspiration in addition to reductions in precipitation. A period with
an abnormal precipitation deficit is defined as a meteorological drought. A
megadrought is a very lengthy and pervasive drought, lasting much longer
than normal, usually a decade or more. For the corresponding indices, see
Box 2.4.
Dynamical system A process or set of processes whose evolution in
time is governed by a set of deterministic physical laws. The climate system
is a dynamical system. See also Abrupt climate change, Chaotic, Nonlinearity and Predictability.
Earth System Model (ESM) A coupled atmosphereocean general
circulation model in which a representation of the carbon cycle is included, allowing for interactive calculation of atmospheric CO2 or compatible
emissions. Additional components (e.g., atmospheric chemistry, ice sheets,
dynamic vegetation, nitrogen cycle, but also urban or crop models) may be
included. See also Climate model.
Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) A climate model attempting to include all the most important earth system
processes as in ESMs but at a lower resolution or in a simpler, more idealized fashion.
Earth System sensitivity The equilibrium temperature response of
the coupled atmosphereoceancryospherevegetationcarbon cycle
system to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration is referred to
as Earth System sensitivity. Because it allows slow components (e.g., ice
sheets, vegetation) of the climate system to adjust to the external perturbation, it may differ substantially from the climate sensitivity derived from
coupled atmosphereocean models.
Ecosystem An ecosystem is a functional unit consisting of living
organisms, their non-living environment, and the interactions within and
between them. The components included in a given ecosystem and its spatial boundaries depend on the purpose for which the ecosystem is defined:
in some cases they are relatively sharp, while in others they are diffuse.
Ecosystem boundaries can change over time. Ecosystems are nested within
other ecosystems, and their scale can range from very small to the entire
biosphere. In the current era, most ecosystems either contain people as
key organisms, or are influenced by the effects of human activities in their
environment.
Effective climate sensitivity See Climate sensitivity.
Effective radiative forcing See Radiative forcing.
Efficacy A measure of how effective a radiative forcing from a given
anthropogenic or natural mechanism is at changing the equilibrium global
mean surface temperature compared to an equivalent radiative forcing from carbon dioxide. A carbon dioxide increase by definition has an
efficacy of 1.0. Variations in climate efficacy may result from rapid adjustments to the applied forcing, which differ with different forcings.
Ekman pumping Frictional stress at the surface between two fluids
(atmosphere and ocean) or between a fluid and the adjacent solid surface (the Earths surface) forces a circulation. When the resulting mass
Glossary
transport is converging, mass conservation requires a vertical flow away

from the surface. This is called Ekman pumping. The opposite effect, in case
of divergence, is called Ekman suction. The effect is important in both the
atmosphere and the ocean.
Ekman transport The total transport resulting from a balance between
the Coriolis force and the frictional stress due to the action of the wind on
the ocean surface. See also Ekman pumping.
Electromagnetic spectrum Wavelength or energy range of all electromagnetic radiation. In terms of solar radiation, the spectral irradiance is
the power arriving at the Earth per unit area, per unit wavelength.
El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) The term El Nio was initially
used to describe a warm-water current that periodically flows along the
coast of Ecuador and Peru, disrupting the local fishery. It has since become
identified with a basin-wide warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean east of
the dateline. This oceanic event is associated with a fluctuation of a globalscale tropical and subtropical surface pressure pattern called the Southern
Oscillation. This coupled atmosphereocean phenomenon, with preferred
time scales of two to about seven years, is known as the El Nio-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO). It is often measured by the surface pressure anomaly
difference between Tahiti and Darwin or the sea surface temperatures in
the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. During an ENSO event, the prevailing trade winds weaken, reducing upwelling and altering ocean currents such that the sea surface temperatures warm, further weakening the
trade winds. This event has a great impact on the wind, sea surface temperature and precipitation patterns in the tropical Pacific. It has climatic
effects throughout the Pacific region and in many other parts of the world,
through global teleconnections. The cold phase of ENSO is called La Nia.
For the corresponding indices, see Box 2.5.
Energy balance The difference between the total incoming and total
outgoing energy. If this balance is positive, warming occurs; if it is negative, cooling occurs. Averaged over the globe and over long time periods,
this balance must be zero. Because the climate system derives virtually all
its energy from the Sun, zero balance implies that, globally, the absorbed
solar radiation, that is, incoming solar radiation minus reflected solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere and outgoing longwave radiation emitted by the climate system are equal. See also Energy budget.
Energy Balance Model (EBM) An energy balance model is a simplified model that analyses the energy budget of the Earth to compute
changes in the climate. In its simplest form, there is no explicit spatial
dimension and the model then provides an estimate of the changes in
globally averaged temperature computed from the changes in radiation.
This zero-dimensional energy balance model can be extended to a one-
Energy budget (of the Earth) The Earth is a physical system with
an energy budget that includes all gains of incoming energy and all losses
of outgoing energy. The Earths energy budget is determined by measuring how much energy comes into the Earth system from the Sun, how
much energy is lost to space, and accounting for the remainder on Earth
and its atmosphere. Solar radiation is the dominant source of energy into
the Earth system. Incoming solar energy may be scattered and reflected
by clouds and aerosols or absorbed in the atmosphere. The transmitted
radiation is then either absorbed or reflected at the Earths surface. The
average albedo of the Earth is about 0.3, which means that 30% of the
incident solar energy is reflected into space, while 70% is absorbed by
the Earth. Radiant solar or shortwave energy is transformed into sensible
heat, latent energy (involving different water states), potential energy, and
kinetic energy before being emitted as infrared radiation. With the average
surface temperature of the Earth of about 15C (288 K), the main outgoing
energy flux is in the infrared part of the spectrum. See also Energy balance,
Latent heat flux, Sensible heat flux.
Ensemble A collection of model simulations characterizing a climate
prediction or projection. Differences in initial conditions and model formulation result in different evolutions of the modelled system and may give
information on uncertainty associated with model error and error in initial
conditions in the case of climate forecasts and on uncertainty associated
with model error and with internally generated climate variability in the
case of climate projections.
Equilibrium and transient climate experiment An equilibrium
climate experiment is a climate model experiment in which the model is
allowed to fully adjust to a change in radiative forcing. Such experiments
provide information on the difference between the initial and final states
of the model, but not on the time-dependent response. If the forcing is
allowed to evolve gradually according to a prescribed emission scenario,
the time-dependent response of a climate model may be analysed. Such
an experiment is called a transient climate experiment. See also Climate
projection.
Equilibrium climate sensitivity See Climate sensitivity.
Equilibrium line The spatially averaged boundary at a given moment,
usually chosen as the seasonal mass budget minimum at the end of
summer, between the region on a glacier where there is a net annual loss
of ice mass (ablation area) and that where there is a net annual gain (accumulation area). The altitude of this boundary is referred to as equilibrium
line altitude (ELA).
Equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration The concentration of carbon dioxide that would cause the same radiative forcing as
a given mixture of carbon dioxide and other forcing components. Those
values may consider only greenhouse gases, or a combination of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Equivalent carbon dioxide concentration is a
metric for comparing radiative forcing of a mix of different greenhouse
gases at a particular time but does not imply equivalence of the corresponding climate change responses nor future forcing. There is generally
no connection between equivalent carbon dioxide emissions and resulting
equivalent carbon dioxide concentrations.
Equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2) emission The amount of carbon
dioxide emission that would cause the same integrated radiative forcing,
over a given time horizon, as an emitted amount of a greenhouse gas or
a mixture of greenhouse gases. The equivalent carbon dioxide emission is
obtained by multiplying the emission of a greenhouse gas by its Global
Warming Potential for the given time horizon. For a mix of greenhouse
191
Glossary
Emission scenario A plausible representation of the future development of emissions of substances that are potentially radiatively active
(e.g., greenhouse gases, aerosols) based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces (such as demographic and
socioeconomic development, technological change) and their key relationships. Concentration scenarios, derived from emission scenarios, are used
as input to a climate model to compute climate projections. In IPCC (1992)
a set of emission scenarios was presented which were used as a basis
for the climate projections in IPCC (1996). These emission scenarios are
referred to as the IS92 scenarios. In the IPCC Special Report on Emission
Scenarios (Nakienovi and Swart, 2000) emission scenarios, the so-called
SRES scenarios, were published, some of which were used, among others,
as a basis for the climate projections presented in Chapters 9 to 11 of IPCC
(2001) and Chapters 10 and 11 of IPCC (2007). New emission scenarios
for climate change, the four Representative Concentration Pathways, were
developed for, but independently of, the present IPCC assessment. See also
Climate scenario and Scenario.
dimensional or two-dimensional model if changes to the energy budget

with respect to latitude, or both latitude and longitude, are explicitly considered. See also Climate model.
Glossary
gases it is obtained by summing the equivalent carbon dioxide emissions

of each gas. Equivalent carbon dioxide emission is a common scale for
comparing emissions of different greenhouse gases but does not imply
equivalence of the corresponding climate change responses. See also
Equivalent carbon dioxide concentration.
Evapotranspiration The combined process of evaporation from the
Earths surface and transpiration from vegetation.
Extended Concentration Pathways See Representative Concentration Pathways.
External forcing External forcing refers to a forcing agent outside the
climate system causing a change in the climate system. Volcanic eruptions,
solar variations and anthropogenic changes in the composition of the
atmosphere and land use change are external forcings. Orbital forcing is
also an external forcing as the insolation changes with orbital parameters
eccentricity, tilt and precession of the equinox.
Extratropical cyclone A large-scale (of order 1000 km) storm in
the middle or high latitudes having low central pressure and fronts with
strong horizontal gradients in temperature and humidity. A major cause
of extreme wind speeds and heavy precipitation especially in wintertime.
Extreme climate event See Extreme weather event.
Glossary
Extreme sea level See Storm surge.

Extreme weather event An extreme weather event is an event that
is rare at a particular place and time of year. Definitions of rare vary, but
an extreme weather event would normally be as rare as or rarer than the
10th or 90th percentile of a probability density function estimated from
observations. By definition, the characteristics of what is called extreme
weather may vary from place to place in an absolute sense. When a pattern of extreme weather persists for some time, such as a season, it may
be classed as an extreme climate event, especially if it yields an average or
total that is itself extreme (e.g., drought or heavy rainfall over a season).
Faculae Bright patches on the Sun. The area covered by faculae is greater during periods of high solar activity.
Feedback See Climate feedback.
Fingerprint The climate response pattern in space and/or time to a specific forcing is commonly referred to as a fingerprint. The spatial patterns of
sea level response to melting of glaciers or ice sheets (or other changes in
surface loading) are also referred to as fingerprints. Fingerprints are used
to detect the presence of this response in observations and are typically
estimated using forced climate model simulations.
Flux adjustment To avoid the problem of coupled AtmosphereOcean
General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) drifting into some unrealistic climate state, adjustment terms can be applied to the atmosphere-ocean
fluxes of heat and moisture (and sometimes the surface stresses resulting
from the effect of the wind on the ocean surface) before these fluxes are
imposed on the model ocean and atmosphere. Because these adjustments
are pre-computed and therefore independent of the coupled model integration, they are uncorrelated with the anomalies that develop during the
integration.
Forest A vegetation type dominated by trees. Many definitions of the
term forest are in use throughout the world, reflecting wide differences in
biogeophysical conditions, social structure and economics. For a discussion
of the term forest and related terms such as afforestation, reforestation and
deforestation see the IPCC Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC, 2000). See also the Report on Definitions and M
ethodological
Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation of
Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types (IPCC, 2003).
192
Fossil fuel emissions Emissions of greenhouse gases (in particular

carbon dioxide), other trace gases and aerosols resulting from the combustion of fuels from fossil carbon deposits such as oil, gas and coal.
Framework Convention on Climate Change See United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Free atmosphere The atmospheric layer that is negligibly affected by
friction against the Earths surface, and which is above the atmospheric
boundary layer.
Frozen ground Soil or rock in which part or all of the pore water is
frozen. Frozen ground includes permafrost. Ground that freezes and thaws
annually is called seasonally frozen ground.
General circulation The large-scale motions of the atmosphere and
the ocean as a consequence of differential heating on a rotating Earth.
General circulation contributes to the energy balance of the system
through transport of heat and momentum.
General Circulation Model (GCM) See Climate model.
Geoengineering Geoengineering refers to a broad set of methods and
technologies that aim to deliberately alter the climate system in order to
alleviate the impacts of climate change. Most, but not all, methods seek
to either (1) reduce the amount of absorbed solar energy in the climate
system (Solar Radiation Management) or (2) increase net carbon sinks
from the atmosphere at a scale sufficiently large to alter climate (Carbon
Dioxide Removal). Scale and intent are of central importance. Two key
characteristics of geoengineering methods of particular concern are that
they use or affect the climate system (e.g., atmosphere, land or ocean)
globally or regionally and/or could have substantive unintended effects
that cross national boundaries. Geoengineering is different from weather
modification and ecological engineering, but the boundary can be fuzzy
(IPCC, 2012, p. 2).
Geoid The equipotential surface having the same geopotential at each
latitude and longitude around the world (geodesists denoting this potential W0) that best approximates the mean sea level. It is the surface of
reference for measurement of altitude. In practice, several variations of
definitions of the geoid exist depending on the way the permanent tide
(the zero-frequency gravitational tide due to the Sun and Moon) is considered in geodetic studies.
Geostrophic winds or currents A wind or current that is in balance
with the horizontal pressure gradient and the Coriolis force, and thus is outside of the influence of friction. Thus, the wind or current is directly parallel
to isobars and its speed is proportional to the horizontal pressure gradient.
Glacialinterglacial cycles Phase of the Earths history marked by
large changes in continental ice volume and global sea level. See also Ice
age and Interglacials.
Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) The deformation of the Earth
and its gravity field due to the response of the earthocean system to
changes in ice and associated water loads. It is sometimes referred to as
glacio-hydro isostasy. It includes vertical and horizontal deformations of
the Earths surface and changes in geoid due to the redistribution of mass
during the iceocean mass exchange.
Glacier A perennial mass of land ice that originates from compressed
snow, shows evidence of past or present flow (through internal deformation and/or sliding at the base) and is constrained by internal stress and
friction at the base and sides. A glacier is maintained by accumulation of
snow at high altitudes, balanced by melting at low altitudes and/or discharge into the sea. An ice mass of the same origin as glaciers, but of
continental size, is called an ice sheet. For the purpose of simplicity in this
Assessment Report, all ice masses other than ice sheets are referred to as
Glossary
glaciers. See also Equilibrium line and Mass balance/budget (of glaciers or
ice sheets).
winds near the surface, and with rising air near the equator in the so-called
Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.
Global dimming Global dimming refers to a widespread reduction of

solar radiation received at the surface of the Earth from about the year
1961 to around 1990.
Halocarbons A collective term for the group of partially halogenated

organic species, which includes the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), halons, methyl
chloride and methyl bromide. Many of the halocarbons have large Global
Warming Potentials. The chlorine and bromine-containing halocarbons are
also involved in the depletion of the ozone layer.
Global mean surface temperature An estimate of the global mean

surface air temperature. However, for changes over time, only anomalies,
as departures from a climatology, are used, most commonly based on the
area-weighted global average of the sea surface temperature anomaly and
land surface air temperature anomaly.
Global Warming Potential (GWP) An index, based on radiative
properties of greenhouse gases, measuring the radiative forcing following
a pulse emission of a unit mass of a given greenhouse gas in the presentday atmosphere integrated over a chosen time horizon, relative to that of
carbon dioxide. The GWP represents the combined effect of the differing
times these gases remain in the atmosphere and their relative effectiveness in causing radiative forcing. The Kyoto Protocol is based on GWPs
from pulse emissions over a 100-year time frame.
Greenhouse gas (GHG) Greenhouse gases are those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb
and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of terrestrial radiation emitted by the Earths surface, the atmosphere itself, and by
clouds. This property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapour (H2O),
carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and ozone (O3)
are the primary greenhouse gases in the Earths atmosphere. Moreover,
there are a number of entirely human-made greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, such as the halocarbons and other chlorine- and brominecontaining substances, dealt with under the Montreal Protocol. Beside CO2,
N2O and CH4, the Kyoto Protocol deals with the greenhouse gases sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons
(PFCs). For a list of well-mixed greenhouse gases, see Table 2.A.1.
Gross Primary Production (GPP) The amount of carbon fixed by the
autotrophs (e.g. plants and algaes).
Grounding line The junction between a glacier or ice sheet and ice
shelf; the place where ice starts to float. This junction normally occurs over
a finite zone, rather than at a line.
Gyre Basin-scale ocean horizontal circulation pattern with slow flow
circulating around the ocean basin, closed by a strong and narrow (100 to
200 km wide) boundary current on the western side. The subtropical gyres
in each ocean are associated with high pressure in the centre of the gyres;
the subpolar gyres are associated with low pressure.
Hadley Circulation A direct, thermally driven overturning cell in the
atmosphere consisting of poleward flow in the upper troposphere, subsiding air into the subtropical anticyclones, return flow as part of the trade
Halosteric See Sea level change.

HCFC See Halocarbons.
Heat wave A period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot weather. See
also Warm spell.
Heterotrophic respiration The conversion of organic matter to
carbon dioxide by organisms other than autotrophs.
HFC See Halocarbons.
Hindcast or retrospective forecast A forecast made for a period in
the past using only information available before the beginning of the forecast. A sequence of hindcasts can be used to calibrate the forecast system
and/or provide a measure of the average skill that the forecast system has
exhibited in the past as a guide to the skill that might be expected in the
future.
Holocene The Holocene Epoch is the latter of two epochs in the Quaternary System, extending from 11.65 ka (thousand years before 1950) to
the present. It is also known as Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 1 or current
interglacial.
Hydroclimate Part of the climate pertaining to the hydrology of a
region.
Hydrological cycle The cycle in which water evaporates from the
oceans and the land surface, is carried over the Earth in atmospheric
circulation as water vapour, condenses to form clouds, precipitates over
ocean and land as rain or snow, which on land can be intercepted by trees
and vegetation, provides runoff on the land surface, infiltrates into soils,
recharges groundwater, discharges into streams and ultimately flows out
into the oceans, from which it will eventually evaporate again. The various systems involved in the hydrological cycle are usually referred to as
hydrological systems.
Hydrosphere The component of the climate system comprising liquid
surface and subterranean water, such as oceans, seas, rivers, fresh water
lakes, underground water, etc.
Hypsometry The distribution of land or ice surface as a function of
altitude.
Ice age An ice age or glacial period is characterized by a long-term
reduction in the temperature of the Earths climate, resulting in growth of
ice sheets and glaciers.
Icealbedo feedback A climate feedback involving changes in the
Earths surface albedo. Snow and ice have an albedo much higher (up to
~0.8) than the average planetary albedo (~0.3). With increasing temperatures, it is anticipated that snow and ice extent will decrease, the Earths
overall albedo will decrease and more solar radiation will be absorbed,
warming the Earth further.
193
Glossary
Greenhouse effect The infrared radiative effect of all infrared-absorbing constituents in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases, clouds, and (to a
small extent) aerosols absorb terrestrial radiation emitted by the Earths
surface and elsewhere in the atmosphere. These substances emit infrared radiation in all directions, but, everything else being equal, the net
amount emitted to space is normally less than would have been emitted
in the absence of these absorbers because of the decline of temperature
with altitude in the troposphere and the consequent weakening of emission. An increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases increases the
magnitude of this effect; the difference is sometimes called the enhanced
greenhouse effect. The change in a greenhouse gas concentration because
of anthropogenic emissions contributes to an instantaneous radiative forcing. Surface temperature and troposphere warm in response to this forcing,
gradually restoring the radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere.
Halocline A layer in the oceanic water column in which salinity changes

rapidly with depth. Generally saltier water is denser and lies below less
salty water. In some high latitude oceans the surface waters may be colder
than the deep waters and the halocline is responsible for maintaining
water column stability and isolating the surface waters from the deep
waters. See also Thermocline.
Glossary
Ice core A cylinder of ice drilled out of a glacier or ice sheet.

Ice sheet A mass of land ice of continental size that is sufficiently thick
to cover most of the underlying bed, so that its shape is mainly determined
by its dynamics (the flow of the ice as it deforms internally and/or slides at
its base). An ice sheet flows outward from a high central ice plateau with
a small average surface slope. The margins usually slope more steeply, and
most ice is discharged through fast flowing ice streams or outlet glaciers,
in some cases into the sea or into ice shelves floating on the sea. There are
only two ice sheets in the modern world, one on Greenland and one on
Antarctica. During glacial periods there were others.
Ice shelf A floating slab of ice of considerable thickness extending from
the coast (usually of great horizontal extent with a very gently sloping
surface), often filling embayments in the coastline of an ice sheet. Nearly
all ice shelves are in Antarctica, where most of the ice discharged into the
ocean flows via ice shelves.
Ice stream A stream of ice with strongly enhanced flow that is part of
an ice sheet. It is often separated from surrounding ice by strongly sheared,
crevassed margins. See also Outlet glacier.
Incoming solar radiation See Insolation.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Largescale mode of interannual variability of sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. This pattern manifests
through a zonal gradient of tropical sea surface temperature, which in one
extreme phase in boreal autumn shows cooling off Sumatra and warming
off Somalia in the west, combined with anomalous easterlies along the
equator.
Glossary
Indirect aerosol effect See Aerosol-cloud interaction.

Industrial Revolution A period of rapid industrial growth with farreaching social and economic consequences, beginning in Britain during
the second half of the 18th century and spreading to Europe and later to
other countries including the United States. The invention of the steam
engine was an important trigger of this development. The industrial revolution marks the beginning of a strong increase in the use of fossil fuels and
emission of, in particular, fossil carbon dioxide. In this report the terms preindustrial and industrial refer, somewhat arbitrarily, to the periods before
and after 1750, respectively.
Infrared radiation See Terrestrial radiation.
Insolation The amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth by latitude and by season measured in W m2. Usually insolation refers to the
radiation arriving at the top of the atmosphere. Sometimes it is specified
as referring to the radiation arriving at the Earths surface. See also Total
Solar Irradiance.
Interglacials or interglaciations The warm periods between ice age
glaciations. Often defined as the periods at which sea levels were close
to present sea level. For the Last Interglacial (LIG) this occurred between
about 129 and 116 ka (thousand years) before present (defined as 1950)
although the warm period started in some areas a few thousand years
earlier. In terms of the oxygen isotope record interglaciations are defined
as the interval between the midpoint of the preceding termination and
the onset of the next glaciation. The present interglaciation, the Holocene,
started at 11.65 ka before present although globally sea levels did not
approach their present position until about 7 ka before present.
Internal variability See Climate variability.
Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is an equatorial zonal belt of low pressure, strong convection
and heavy precipitation near the equator where the northeast trade winds
meet the southeast trade winds. This band moves seasonally.
194
Iron fertilization Deliberate introduction of iron to the upper ocean

intended to enhance biological productivity which can sequester additional atmospheric carbon dioxide into the oceans.
Irreversibility A perturbed state of a dynamical system is defined as
irreversible on a given timescale, if the recovery timescale from this state
due to natural processes is significantly longer than the time it takes for the
system to reach this perturbed state. In the context of WGI, the time scale
of interest is centennial to millennial. See also Tipping point.
Isostatic or Isostasy Isostasy refers to the response of the earth to
changes in surface load. It includes the deformational and gravitational
response. This response is elastic on short time scales, as in the earth
ocean response to recent changes in mountain glaciation, or viscoelastic
on longer time scales, as in the response to the last deglaciation following
the Last Glacial Maximum. See also Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA).
Isotopes Atoms of the same chemical element that have the same the
number of protons but differ in the number of neutrons. Some proton
neutron configurations are stable (stable isotopes), others are unstable
undergoing spontaneous radioactive decay (radioisotopes). Most elements
have more than one stable isotope. Isotopes can be used to trace transport
processes or to study processes that change the isotopic ratio. Radioisotopes provide in addition time information that can be used for radiometric
dating.
Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1997 in Kyoto,
Japan, at the Third Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the
UNFCCC. It contains legally binding commitments, in addition to those
included in the UNFCCC. Countries included in Annex B of the Protocol
(most Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries
and countries with economies in transition) agreed to reduce their anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulphur hexafluoride) by
at least 5% below 1990 levels in the commitment period 20082012. The
Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005.
Land surface air temperature The surface air temperature as measured in well-ventilated screens over land at 1.5 m above the ground.
Land use and Land use change Land use refers to the total of
arrangements, activities and inputs undertaken in a certain land cover type
(a set of human actions). The term land use is also used in the sense of the
social and economic purposes for which land is managed (e.g., grazing,
timber extraction and conservation). Land use change refers to a change
in the use or management of land by humans, which may lead to a change
in land cover. Land cover and land use change may have an impact on
the surface albedo, evapotranspiration, sources and sinks of greenhouse
gases, or other properties of the climate system and may thus give rise to
radiative forcing and/or other impacts on climate, locally or globally. See
also the IPCC Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (IPCC,
2000).
Land water storage Water stored on land other than in glaciers and
ice sheets (that is water stored in rivers, lakes, wetlands, the vadose zone,
aquifers, reservoirs, snow and permafrost). Changes in land water storage
driven by climate and human activities contribute to sea level change.
La Nia See El Nio-Southern Oscillation.
Lapse rate The rate of change of an atmospheric variable, usually temperature, with height. The lapse rate is considered positive when the variable decreases with height.
Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) The period during the last ice age when
the glaciers and ice sheets reached their maximum extent, a pproximately
Glossary
21 ka ago. This period has been widely studied because the radiative forcings and boundary conditions are relatively well known.
Last Interglacial (LIG) See Interglacials.
Latent heat flux The turbulent flux of heat from the Earths surface
to the atmosphere that is associated with evaporation or condensation of
water vapour at the surface; a component of the surface energy budget.
Lifetime Lifetime is a general term used for various time scales characterizing the rate of processes affecting the concentration of trace gases.
The following lifetimes may be distinguished:
Turnover time (T) (also called global atmospheric lifetime) is the
ratio of the mass M of a reservoir (e.g., a gaseous compound in the
atmosphere) and the total rate of removal S from the reservoir: T = M/S.
For each removal process, separate turnover times can be defined. In
soil carbon biology, this is referred to as Mean Residence Time.
Adjustment time or response time (Ta) is the time scale characterizing the decay of an instantaneous pulse input into the reservoir. The
term adjustment time is also used to characterize the adjustment of
the mass of a reservoir following a step change in the source strength.
Half-life or decay constant is used to quantify a first-order exponential
decay process. See Response time for a different definition pertinent to
climate variations.
The term lifetime is sometimes used, for simplicity, as a surrogate for
adjustment time.
Likelihood The chance of a specific outcome occurring, where this

might be estimated probabilistically. This is expressed in this report using a
standard terminology, defined in Table 1.1. See also Confidence and Uncertainty.
Lithosphere The upper layer of the solid Earth, both continental and
oceanic, which comprises all crustal rocks and the cold, mainly elastic
part of the uppermost mantle. Volcanic activity, although part of the lithosphere, is not considered as part of the climate system, but acts as an
external forcing factor. See also Isostatic.
Little Ice Age (LIA) An interval during the last millennium characterized by a number of extensive expansions of mountain glaciers and
moderate retreats in between them, both in the Northern and Southern
Hemispheres. The timing of glacial advances differs between regions and
the LIA is, therefore, not clearly defined in time. Most definitions lie in the
Longwave radiation See Terrestrial radiation.

MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO) The largest single component of
tropical atmospheric intraseasonal variability (periods from 30 to 90 days).
The MJO propagates eastwards at around 5m s1 in the form of a largescale coupling between atmospheric circulation and deep convection.As it
progresses, it is associated with large regions of both enhanced and suppressed rainfall, mainly over theIndianand western Pacific Oceans. Each
MJO event lasts approximately 30 to 60 days, hence the MJO is also known
as the30- to 60-day wave, or the intraseasonal oscillation.
Marine-based ice sheet An ice sheet containing a substantial region
that rests on a bed lying below sea level and whose perimeter is in contact
with the ocean. The best known example is the West Antarctic ice sheet.
Mass balance/budget (of glaciers or ice sheets) The balance
between the mass input to the ice body (accumulation) and the mass loss
(ablation and iceberg calving) over a stated period of time, which is often
a year or a season. Point mass balance refers to the mass balance at a
particular location on the glacier or ice sheet. Surface mass balance is the
difference between surface accumulation and surface ablation. The input
and output terms for mass balance are:
Accumulation All processes that add to the mass of a glacier. The
main contribution to accumulation is snowfall. Accumulation also
includes deposition of hoar, freezing rain, other types of solid precipitation, gain of wind-blown snow, and avalanching.
Ablation Surface processes that reduce the mass of a glacier. The
main contributor to ablation is melting with runoff but on some glaciers sublimation, loss of wind-blown snow and avalanching are also
significant processes of ablation.
Discharge/outflow Mass loss by iceberg calving or ice discharge
across the grounding line of a floating ice shelf. Although often treated
as an ablation term, in this report iceberg calving and discharge is considered separately from surface ablation.
Mean sea level The surface level of the ocean at a particular point
averaged over an extended period of time such as a month or year. Mean
sea level is often used as a national datum to which heights on land are
referred.
Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) See Medieval Warm Period.
Medieval Warm Period (MWP) An interval of relatively warm conditions and other notable climate anomalies such as more extensive
drought in some continental regions. The timing of this interval is not
clearly defined, with different records showing onset and termination of
the warmth at different times, and some showing intermittent warmth.
Most definitions lie within the period 900 to 1400 CE. Currently available
reconstructions of average Northern Hemisphere temperature indicate that
the warmest period at the hemispheric scale may have occurred from 950
to 1250 CE. Currently available records and temperature reconstructions
indicate that average temperatures during parts of the MWP were indeed
warmer in the context of the last 2 kyr, though the warmth may not have
been as ubiquitous across seasons and geographical regions as the 20th
century warming. It is also called Medieval Climate Anomaly.
Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) Meridional (north
south) overturning circulation in the ocean quantified by zonal (eastwest)
sums of mass transports in depth or density layers. In the North Atlantic,
away from the subpolar regions, the MOC (which is in principle an observable quantity) is often identified with the thermohaline circulation (THC),
195
Glossary
In simple cases, where the global removal of the compound is directly

proportional to the total mass of the reservoir, the adjustment time
equals the turnover time: T = Ta. An example is CFC-11, which is
removed from the atmosphere only by photochemical processes in the
stratosphere. In more complicated cases, where several reservoirs are
involved or where the removal is not proportional to the total mass,
the equality T = Ta no longer holds. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an extreme
example. Its turnover time is only about 4 years because of the rapid
exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean and terrestrial biota.
However, a large part of that CO2 is returned to the atmosphere within
a few years. Thus, the adjustment time of CO2 in the atmosphere is
actually determined by the rate of removal of carbon from the surface
layer of the oceans into its deeper layers. Although an approximate
value of 100 years may be given for the adjustment time of CO2 in the
atmosphere, the actual adjustment is faster initially and slower later
on. In the case of methane (CH4), the adjustment time is different from
the turnover time because the removal is mainly through a chemical
reaction with the hydroxyl radical (OH), the concentration of which
itself depends on the CH4 concentration. Therefore, the CH4 removal
rate S is not proportional to its total mass M.
period 1400 CE and 1900 CE. Currently available reconstructions of average Northern Hemisphere temperature indicate that the coolest periods at
the hemispheric scale may have occurred from 1450 to 1850 CE.
Glossary
which is a conceptual and incomplete interpretation. It must be borne in

mind that the MOC is also driven by wind, and can also include shallower
overturning cells such as occur in the upper ocean in the tropics and subtropics, in which warm (light) waters moving poleward are transformed to
slightly denser waters and subducted equatorward at deeper levels.
Mode of climate variability Underlying spacetime structure with

preferred spatial pattern and temporal variation that helps account for the
gross features in variance and for teleconnections. A mode of variability
is often considered to be the product of a spatial climate pattern and an
associated climate index time series.
Metadata Information about meteorological and climatological data

concerning how and when they were measured, their quality, known problems and other characteristics.
Mole fraction Mole fraction, or mixing ratio, is the ratio of the number
of moles of a constituent in a given volume to the total number of moles
of all constituents in that volume. It is usually reported for dry air. Typical
values for well-mixed greenhouse gases are in the order of mol mol1
(parts per million: ppm), nmol mol1 (parts per billion: ppb), and fmol mol1
(parts per trillion: ppt). Mole fraction differs from volume mixing ratio,
often expressed in ppmv etc., by the corrections for non-ideality of gases.
This correction is significant relative to measurement precision for many
greenhouse gases (Schwartz and Warneck, 1995).
Methane (CH4) Methane is one of the six greenhouse gases to be mitigated under the Kyoto Protocol and is the major component of natural gas
and associated with all hydrocarbon fuels, animal husbandry and agriculture.
Metric A consistent measurement of a characteristic of an object or
activity that is otherwise difficult to quantify. Within the context of the
evaluation of climate models, this is a quantitative measure of agreement
between a simulated and observed quantity which can be used to assess
the performance of individual models.
Glossary
Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) A microwave sounder on National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) polar orbiter satellites,
that estimates the temperature of thick layers of the atmosphere by measuring the thermal emission of oxygen molecules from a complex of emission lines near 60 GHz. A series of nine MSUs began making this kind
of measurement in late 1978. Beginning in mid 1998, a follow-on series
of instruments, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Units (AMSUs), began
operation.
Mineralization/Remineralization The conversion of an element
from its organic form to an inorganic form as a result of microbial decomposition. In nitrogen mineralization, organic nitrogen from decaying plant
and animal residues (proteins, nucleic acids, amino sugars and urea) is
converted to ammonia (NH3) and ammonium (NH4+) by biological activity.
Mitigation A human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the
sinks of greenhouse gases.
Mixing ratio See Mole fraction.
Model drift Since model climate differs to some extent from observed
climate, climate forecasts will typically drift from the initial observationbased state towards the models climate. This drift occurs at different time
scales for different variables, can obscure the initial-condition forecast
information and is usually removed a posteriori by an empirical, usually
linear, adjustment.
Model hierarchy See Climate model (spectrum or hierarchy).
Model initialization A climate forecast typically proceeds by integrating a climate model forward in time from an initial state that is intended
to reflect the actual state of the climate system. Available observations of
the climate system are assimilated into the model. Initialization is a complex process that is limited by available observations, observational errors
and, depending on the procedure used, may be affected by uncertainty in
the history of climate forcing. The initial conditions will contain errors that
grow as the forecast progresses, thereby limiting the time for which the
forecast will be useful. See also Climate prediction.
Model spread The range or spread in results from climate models,
such as those assembled for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 5 (CMIP5). Does not necessarily provide an exhaustive and formal
estimate of the uncertainty in feedbacks, forcing or projections even when
expressed numerically, for example, by computing a standard deviation of
the models responses. In order to quantify uncertainty, information from
observations, physical constraints and expert judgement must be combined, using a statistical framework.
196
Monsoon A monsoon is a tropical and subtropical seasonal reversal in

both the surface winds and associated precipitation, caused by differential
heating between a continental-scale land mass and the adjacent ocean.
Monsoon rains occur mainly over land in summer.
Montreal Protocol The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete
the Ozone Layer was adopted in Montreal in 1987, and subsequently
adjusted and amended in London (1990), Copenhagen (1992), Vienna
(1995), Montreal (1997) and Beijing (1999). It controls the consumption and production of chlorine- and bromine-containing chemicals that
destroy stratospheric ozone, such as chlorofluorocarbons, methyl chloroform, carbon tetrachloride and many others.
Near-surface permafrost A term frequently used in climate model
applications to refer to permafrost at depths close to the ground surface
(typically down to 3.5 m). In modelling studies, near-surface permafrost
is usually diagnosed from 20 or 30 year climate averages, which is different from the conventional definition of permafrost. Disappearance of
near-surface permafrost in a location does not preclude the longer-term
persistence of permafrost at greater depth. See also Active layer, Frozen
ground and Thermokarst.
Near-term climate forcers (NTCF) Near-term climate forcers (NTCF)
refer to those compounds whose impact on climate occurs primarily within
the first decade after their emission. This set of compounds is primarily
composed of those with short lifetimes in the atmosphere compared to
well-mixed greenhouse gases, and has been sometimes referred to as
short lived climate forcers or short-lived climate pollutants. However, the
common property that is of greatest interest to a climate assessment is
the timescale over which their impact on climate is felt. This set of compounds includes methane, which is also a well-mixed greenhouse gas, as
well as ozone and aerosols, or their precursors, and some halogenated
species that are not well-mixed greenhouse gases. These compounds do
not accumulate in the atmosphere at decadal to centennial timescales,
and so their effect on climate is predominantly in the near term following
their emission.
Nitrogen deposition Nitrogen deposition is defined as the nitrogen
transferred from the atmosphere to the Earths surface by the processes of
wet deposition and dry deposition.
Nitrous oxide (N2O) One of the six greenhouse gases to be mitigated under the Kyoto Protocol. The main anthropogenic source of nitrous
oxide is agriculture (soil and animal manure management), but important
contributions also come from sewage treatment, combustion of fossil fuel,
and chemical industrial processes. Nitrous oxide is also produced naturally
from a wide variety of biological sources in soil and water, particularly
microbial action in wet tropical forests.
Glossary
Nonlinearity A process is called nonlinear when there is no simple proportional relation between cause and effect. The climate system contains
many such nonlinear processes, resulting in a system with potentially very
complex behaviour. Such complexity may lead to abrupt climate change.
See also Chaotic and Predictability.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) The pattern and time series of

the first empirical orthogonal function of sea surface temperature over the
North Pacific north of 20N. The PDO broadened to cover the whole Pacific
Basin is known as the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation. The PDO and IPO
exhibit similar temporal evolution. See also Pacific Decadal Variability.
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) The North Atlantic Oscillation consists of opposing variations of surface pressure near Iceland and near the
Azores. It therefore corresponds to fluctuations in the strength of the main
westerly winds across the Atlantic into Europe, and thus to fluctuations in
the embedded extratropical cyclones with their associated frontal systems.
See NAO Index, Box 2.5.
Pacific decadal variability Coupled decadal-to-inter-decadal variability of the atmospheric circulation and underlying ocean in the Pacific
Basin. It is most prominent in the North Pacific, where fluctuations in the
strength of the winter Aleutian Low pressure system co-vary with North
Pacific sea surface temperatures, and are linked to decadal variations in
atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperatures and ocean circulation
throughout the whole Pacific Basin. Such fluctuations have the effect of
modulating the El Nio-Southern Oscillation cycle. Key measures of Pacific
decadal variability are the North Pacific Index (NPI), the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO) index and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)
index, all defined in Box 2.5.
Northern Annular Mode (NAM) A winter fluctuation in the amplitude of a pattern characterized by low surface pressure in the Arctic and
strong mid-latitude westerlies. The NAM has links with the northern polar
vortex into the stratosphere. Its pattern has a bias to the North Atlantic and
its index has a large correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation index.
See NAM Index, Box 2.5.
Ocean acidification Ocean acidification refers to a reduction in the pH
of the ocean over an extended period, typically decades or longer, which
is caused primarily by uptake of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, but
can also be caused by other chemical additions or subtractions from the
ocean. Anthropogenic ocean acidification refers to the component of pH
reduction that is caused by human activity (IPCC, 2011, p. 37).
Organic aerosol Component of the aerosol that consists of organic

compounds, mainly carbon, hydrogen, oxygen and lesser amounts of other
elements. See also Carbonaceous aerosol.
Outgoing longwave radiation Net outgoing radiation in the infrared part of the spectrum at the top of the atmosphere. See also Terrestrial
radiation.
Outlet glacier A glacier, usually between rock walls, that is part of, and
drains an ice sheet. See also Ice stream.
Ozone Ozone, the triatomic form of oxygen (O3), is a gaseous atmospheric constituent. In the troposphere, it is created both naturally and by photochemical reactions involving gases resulting from human activities (smog).
Tropospheric ozone acts as a greenhouse gas. In the stratosphere, it is created by the interaction between solar ultraviolet radiation and molecular
oxygen (O2). Stratospheric ozone plays a dominant role in the stratospheric
radiative balance. Its concentration is highest in the ozone layer.
Ozone hole See Ozone layer.
Ozone layer The stratosphere contains a layer in which the concentration of ozone is greatest, the so-called ozone layer. The layer extends from
about 12 to 40 km above the Earths surface. The ozone concentration
reaches a maximum between about 20 and 25 km. This layer has been
depleted by human emissions of chlorine and bromine compounds. Every
year, during the Southern Hemisphere spring, a very strong depletion of
the ozone layer takes place over the Antarctic, caused by anthropogenic
chlorine and bromine compounds in combination with the specific meteorological conditions of that region. This phenomenon is called the Ozone
hole. See also Montreal Protocol.
Paleoclimate Climate during periods prior to the development of measuring instruments, including historic and geologic time, for which only
proxy climate records are available.
Parameterization In climate models, this term refers to the technique
of representing processes that cannot be explicitly resolved at the spatial
or temporal resolution of the model (sub-grid scale processes) by relationships between model-resolved larger-scale variables and the area- or timeaveraged effect of such subgrid scale processes.
Percentiles The set of partition values which divides the total population of a distribution into 100 equal parts, the 50th percentile corresponding to the median of the population.
Permafrost Ground (soil or rock and included ice and organic material)
that remains at or below 0C for at least two consecutive years. See also
Near-surface permafrost.
pH pH is a dimensionless measure of the acidity of water (or any solution) given by its concentration of hydrogen ions (H+). pH is measured on
a logarithmic scale where pH = log10(H+). Thus, a pH decrease of 1 unit
corresponds to a 10-fold increase in the concentration of H+, or acidity.
Photosynthesis The process by which plants take carbon dioxide from
the air (or bicarbonate in water) to build carbohydrates, releasing oxygen
in the process. There are several pathways of photosynthesis with different
responses to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. See also Carbon
dioxide fertilization.
Plankton Microorganisms living in the upper layers of aquatic systems.
A distinction is made between phytoplankton, which depend on photosynthesis for their energy supply, and zooplankton, which feed on phytoplankton.
Pleistocene The Pleistocene Epoch is the earlier of two epochs in the
Quaternary System, extending from 2.59 Ma to the beginning of the Holocene at 11.65 ka.
Pliocene The Plionece Epoch is the last epoch of the Neogene System
and extends from 5.33 Ma to the beginning of the Pleistocene at 2.59 Ma.
Pollen analysis A technique of both relative dating and environmental
reconstruction, consisting of the identification and counting of pollen types
preserved in peat, lake sediments and other deposits. See also Proxy.
197
Glossary
Ocean heat uptake efficiency This is a measure (W m2 C1) of

the rate at which heat storage by the global ocean increases as global
mean surface temperature rises. It is a useful parameter for climate change
experiments in which the radiative forcing is changing monotonically,
when it can be compared with the Climate Feedback Parameter to gauge
the relative importance of climate response and ocean heat uptake in
determining the rate of climate change. It can be estimated from such an
experiment as the ratio of the rate of increase of ocean heat content to the
global mean surface air temperature change.
PacificNorth American (PNA) pattern An atmospheric large-scale

wave pattern featuring a sequence of tropospheric high and low pressure
anomalies stretching from the subtropical west Pacific to the east coast of
North America. See PNA pattern index, Box 2.5.
Glossary
Precipitable water The total amount of atmospheric water vapour in

a vertical column of unit cross-sectional area. It is commonly expressed in
terms of the height of the water if completely condensed and collected in
a vessel of the same unit cross section.
Precursors Atmospheric compounds that are not greenhouse gases or
aerosols, but that have an effect on greenhouse gas or aerosol concentrations by taking part in physical or chemical processes regulating their
production or destruction rates.
Predictability The extent to which future states of a system may be
predicted based on knowledge of current and past states of the system.
Because knowledge of the climate systems past and current states is generally imperfect, as are the models that utilize this knowledge to produce a
climate prediction, and because the climate system is inherently nonlinear
and chaotic, predictability of the climate system is inherently limited. Even
with arbitrarily accurate models and observations, there may still be limits
to the predictability of such a nonlinear system (AMS, 2000).
Prediction quality/skill Measures of the success of a prediction
against observationally based information. No single measure can summarize all aspects of forecast quality and a suite of metrics is considered.
Metrics will differ for forecasts given in deterministic and probabilistic
form. See also Climate prediction.
Glossary
Pre-industrial See Industrial Revolution.

Probability Density Function (PDF) A probability density function
is a function that indicates the relative chances of occurrence of different
outcomes of a variable. The function integrates to unity over the domain
for which it is defined and has the property that the integral over a subdomain equals the probability that the outcome of the variable lies within
that sub-domain. For example, the probability that a temperature anomaly
defined in a particular way is greater than zero is obtained from its PDF
by integrating the PDF over all possible temperature anomalies greater
than zero. Probability density functions that describe two or more variables
simultaneously are similarly defined.
Process-based Model Theoretical concepts and computational methods that represent and simulate the behaviour of real-world systems
derived from a set of functional components and their interactions with
each other and the system environment, through physical and mechanistic
processes occurring over time. See also Climate model.
Projection A projection is a potential future evolution of a quantity or
set of quantities, often computed with the aid of a model. Unlike predictions, projections are conditional on assumptions concerning, for example,
future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may
not be realized. See also Climate prediction and Climate projection.
Proxy A proxy climate indicator is a record that is interpreted, using
physical and biophysical principles, to represent some combination of
climate-related variations back in time. Climate-related data derived in
this way are referred to as proxy data. Examples of proxies include pollen
analysis, tree ring records, speleothems, characteristics of corals and various data derived from marine sediments and ice cores. Proxy-data can be
calibrated to provide quantitative climate information.
Quasi-Biennal Oscillation (QBO) A near-periodic oscillation of the
equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical
stratosphere with a mean period of around 28 months. The alternating
wind maxima descend from the base of the mesosphere down to the tropopause, and are driven by wave energy that propagates up from the troposphere.
Quaternary The Quaternary System is the latter of three systems that
make up the Cenozoic Era (65 Ma to present), extending from 2.59 Ma to
the present, and includes the Pleistocene and Holocene epochs.
198
Radiative effect The impact on a radiation flux or heating rate (most

commonly, on the downward flux at the top of atmosphere) caused by
the interaction of a particular constituent with either the infrared or solar
radiation fields through absorption, scattering and emission, relative to
an otherwise identical atmosphere free of that constituent. This quantifies the impact of the constituent on the climate system. Examples include
the aerosolradiation interactions, cloud radiative effect, and greenhouse
effect. In this report, the portion of any top-of-atmosphere radiative effect
that is due to anthropogenic or other external influences (e.g., volcanic
eruptions or changes in the sun) is termed the instantaneous radiative forcing.
Radiative forcing Radiative forcing is the change in the net, downward minus upward, radiative flux (expressed in W m2) at the tropopause
or top of atmosphere due to a change in an external driver of climate
change, such as, for example, a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide or the output of the Sun. Sometimes internal drivers are still treated as
forcings even though they result from the alteration in climate, for example
aerosol or greenhouse gas changes in paleoclimates. The traditional radiative forcing is computed with all tropospheric properties held fixed at their
unperturbed values, and after allowing for stratospheric temperatures, if
perturbed, to readjust to radiative-dynamical equilibrium. Radiative forcing is called instantaneous if no change in stratospheric temperature is
accounted for. The radiative forcing once rapid adjustments are accounted
for is termed the effective radiative forcing. For the purposes of this report,
radiative forcing is further defined as the change relative to the year 1750
and, unless otherwise noted, refers to a global and annual average value.
Radiative forcing is not to be confused with cloud radiative forcing, which
describes an unrelated measure of the impact of clouds on the radiative
flux at the top of the atmosphere.
Rapid adjustment The response to an agent perturbing the climate
system that is driven directly by the agent, independently of any change
in the global mean surface temperature. For example, carbon dioxide and
aerosols, by altering internal heating and cooling rates within the atmosphere, can each cause changes to cloud cover and other variables thereby
producing a radiative effect even in the absence of any surface warming or
cooling. Adjustments are rapid in the sense that they begin to occur right
away, before climate feedbacks which are driven by warming (although
some adjustments may still take significant time to proceed to completion,
for example those involving vegetation or ice sheets). It is also called the
rapid response or fast adjustment. For further explanation on the concept,
see Sections 7.1 and 8.1.
Rapid climate change See Abrupt climate change.
Rapid dynamical change (of glaciers or ice sheets) Changes in
glacier or ice sheet mass controlled by changes in flow speed and discharge rather than by accumulation or ablation. This can result in a rate
of mass change larger than that due to any imbalance between accumulation and ablation. Rapid dynamical change may be initiated by a climatic
trigger, such as incursion of warm ocean water beneath an ice shelf, or
thinning of a grounded tidewater terminus, which may lead to reactions
within the glacier system, that may result in rapid ice loss. See also Mass
balance/budget (of glaciers or ice sheets).
Reanalysis Reanalyses are estimates of historical atmospheric temperature and wind or oceanographic temperature and current, and other
quantities, created by processing past meteorological or oceanographic
data using fixed state-of-the-art weather forecasting or ocean circulation
models with data assimilation techniques. Using fixed data assimilation
avoids effects from the changing analysis system that occur in operational
analyses. Although continuity is improved, global reanalyses still suffer
from changing coverage and biases in the observing systems.
Glossary
Rebound effect When CO2 is removed from the atmosphere, the CO2
concentration gradient between atmospheric and land/ocean carbon reservoirs is reduced. This leads to a reduction or reversal in subsequent inherent rate of removal of CO2 from the atmosphere by natural carbon cycle
processes on land and ocean.
Reconstruction (of climate variable) Approach to reconstructing
the past temporal and spatial characteristics of a climate variable from
predictors. The predictors can be instrumental data if the reconstruction is
used to infill missing data or proxy data if it is used to develop paleoclimate
reconstructions. Various techniques have been developed for this purpose:
linear multivariate regression based methods and nonlinear Bayesian and
analog methods.
Reforestation Planting of forests on lands that have previously
contained forests but that have been converted to some other use. For
a discussion of the term forest and related terms such as afforestation,
reforestation and deforestation, see the IPCC Report on Land Use, LandUse Change and Forestry (IPCC, 2000). See also the Report on Definitions
and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Humaninduced Degradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation
Types (IPCC, 2003).
Region A region is a territory characterized by specific geographical
and climatological features. The climate of a region is affected by regional
and local scale features like topography, land use characteristics and lakes,
as well as remote influences from other regions. See also Teleconnection.
Regional Climate Model (RCM) A climate model at higher resolution over a limited area. Such models are used in downscaling global climate results over specific regional domains.
Relative sea level Sea level measured by a tide gauge with respect to
the land upon which it is situated. See also Mean sea level and Sea level
change.
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Scenarios that
include time series of emissions and concentrations of the full suite of
greenhouse gases and aerosols and chemically active gases, as well as land
use/land cover (Moss et al., 2008). The word representative signifies that
each RCP provides only one of many possible scenarios that would lead to
the specific radiative forcing characteristics. The term pathway emphasizes
that not only the long-term concentration levels are of interest, but also
the trajectory taken over time to reach that outcome. (Moss et al., 2010).
RCPs usually refer to the portion of the concentration pathway extending up to 2100, for which Integrated Assessment Models produced
corresponding emission scenarios. Extended Concentration Pathways
(ECPs) describe extensions of the RCPs from 2100 to 2500 that were
calculated using simple rules generated by stakeholder consultations,
and do not represent fully consistent scenarios.
Four RCPs produced from Integrated Assessment Models were selected
from the published literature and are used in the present IPCC Assessment as a basis for the climate predictions and projections presented
in Chapters 11 to 14:
RCP2.6 One pathway where radiative forcing peaks at approximately 3 W m2 before 2100 and then declines (the corresponding ECP
assuming constant emissions after 2100)
RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 Two intermediate stabilization pathways in
which radiative forcing is stabilized at approximately 4.5 W m2 and
6.0 W m2 after 2100 (the corresponding ECPs assuming constant concentrations after 2150)
For further description of future scenarios, see Box 1.1.

Reservoir A component of the climate system, other than the atmosphere, which has the capacity to store, accumulate or release a substance
of concern, for example, carbon, a greenhouse gas or a precursor. Oceans,
soils and forests are examples of reservoirs of carbon. Pool is an equivalent
term (note that the definition of pool often includes the atmosphere). The
absolute quantity of the substance of concern held within a reservoir at a
specified time is called the stock.
Resolution In climate models, this term refers to the physical distance
(metres or degrees) between each point on the grid used to compute the
equations. Temporal resolution refers to the time step or time elapsed
between each model computation of the equations.
Respiration The process whereby living organisms convert organic
matter to carbon dioxide, releasing energy and consuming molecular
oxygen.
Response time The response time or adjustment time is the time
needed for the climate system or its components to re-equilibrate to a
new state, following a forcing resulting from external processes. It is very
different for various components of the climate system. The response time
of the troposphere is relatively short, from days to weeks, whereas the
stratosphere reaches equilibrium on a time scale of typically a few months.
Due to their large heat capacity, the oceans have a much longer response
time: typically decades, but up to centuries or millennia. The response
time of the strongly coupled surfacetroposphere system is, therefore,
slow compared to that of the stratosphere, and mainly determined by the
oceans. The biosphere may respond quickly (e.g., to droughts), but also
very slowly to imposed changes. See lifetime for a different definition of
response time pertinent to the rate of processes affecting the concentration of trace gases.
Return period An estimate of the average time interval between
occurrences of an event (e.g., flood or extreme rainfall) of (or below/above)
a defined size or intensity. See also Return value.
Return value The highest (or, alternatively, lowest) value of a given
variable, on average occurring once in a given period of time (e.g., in 10
years). See also Return period.
River discharge See Streamflow.
Runoff That part of precipitation that does not evaporate and is not
transpired, but flows through the ground or over the ground surface and
returns to bodies of water. See also Hydrological cycle.
Scenario A plausible description of how the future may develop based
on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces (e.g., rate of technological change, prices) and relationships.
Note that scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts, but are useful to
provide a view of the implications of developments and actions. See also
Climate scenario, Emission scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways and SRES scenarios.
Sea ice Ice found at the sea surface that has originated from the freezing of seawater. Sea ice may be discontinuous pieces (ice floes) moved on
the ocean surface by wind and currents (pack ice), or a motionless sheet
attached to the coast (land-fast ice). Sea ice concentration is the fraction
of the ocean covered by ice. Sea ice less than one year old is called firstyear ice. Perennial ice is sea ice that survives at least one summer. It may
be subdivided into second-year ice and multi-year ice, where multiyear ice
has survived at least two summers.
199
Glossary
Relative humidity The relative humidity specifies the ratio of actual

water vapour pressure to that at saturation with respect to liquid water or
ice at the same temperature. See also Specific humidity.
RCP8.5 One high pathway for which radiative forcing reaches greater than 8.5 W m2 by 2100 and continues to rise for some amount of
time (the corresponding ECP assuming constant emissions after 2100
and constant concentrations after 2250)
Glossary
Sea level change Sea level can change, both globally and locally due
to (1) changes in the shape of the ocean basins, (2) a change in ocean
volume as a result of a change in the mass of water in the ocean, and (3)
changes in ocean volume as a result of changes in ocean water density.
Global mean sea level change resulting from change in the mass of the
ocean is called barystatic. The amount of barystatic sea level change due to
the addition or removal of a mass of water is called its sea level equivalent
(SLE). Sea level changes, both globally and locally, resulting from changes
in water density are called steric. Density changes induced by temperature changes only are called thermosteric, while density changes induced
by salinity changes are called halosteric. Barystatic and steric sea level
changes do not include the effect of changes in the shape of ocean basins
induced by the change in the ocean mass and its distribution. See also
Relative Sea Level and Thermal expansion.
Sea level equivalent (SLE) The sea level equivalent of a mass of
water (ice, liquid or vapour) is that mass, converted to a volume using a
density of 1000 kg m3, and divided by the present-day ocean surface area
of 3.625 1014 m2. Thus, 362.5 Gt of water mass added to the ocean will
cause 1 mm of global mean sea level rise. See also Sea level change.
Seasonally frozen ground See Frozen ground.
Sea surface temperature (SST) The sea surface temperature is the
subsurface bulk temperature in the top few metres of the ocean, measured
by ships, buoys and drifters. From ships, measurements of water samples in
buckets were mostly switched in the 1940s to samples from engine intake
water. Satellite measurements of skin temperature (uppermost layer; a
fraction of a millimetre thick) in the infrared or the top centimetre or so in
the microwave are also used, but must be adjusted to be compatible with
the bulk temperature.
Glossary
Semi-direct (aerosol) effect See Aerosolradiation interaction.

Semi-empirical model Model in which calculations are based on a
combination of observed associations between variables and theoretical
considerations relating variables through fundamental principles (e.g.,
conservation of energy). For example, in sea level studies, semi-empirical
models refer specifically to transfer functions formulated to project future
global mean sea level change, or contributions to it, from future global
mean surface temperature change or radiative forcing.
Sensible heat flux The turbulent or conductive flux of heat from the
Earths surface to the atmosphere that is not associated with phase changes of water; a component of the surface energy budget.
Sequestration See Uptake.
Shortwave radiation See Solar radiation.
Significant wave height The average trough-to-crest height of the
highest one third of the wave heights (sea and swell) occurring in a particular time period.
Sink Any process, activity or mechanism that removes a greenhouse
gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol from the
atmosphere.
Slab-ocean model A simplified representation in a climate model of
the ocean as a motionless layer of water with a depth of 50 to 100 m.
Climate models with a slab ocean can be used only for estimating the equilibrium response of climate to a given forcing, not the transient evolution
of climate. See also Equilibrium and transient climate experiment.
Snow cover extent The areal extent of snow covered ground.
Snow water equivalent (SWE) The depth of liquid water that would
result if a mass of snow melted completely.
Soil moisture Water stored in the soil in liquid or frozen form.
200
Soil temperature The temperature of the soil. This can be measured or

modelled at multiple levels within the depth of the soil.
Solar activity General term describing a variety of magnetic phenomena on the Sun such as sunspots, faculae (bright areas), and flares (emission
of high-energy particles). It varies on time scales from minutes to millions
of years. See also Solar cycle.
Solar (11-year) cycle A quasi-regular modulation of solar activity
with varying amplitude and a period of between 8 and 14 years.
Solar radiation Electromagnetic radiation emitted by the Sun with a
spectrum close to the one of a black body with a temperature of 5770 K.
The radiation peaks in visible wavelengths. When compared to the terrestrial radiation it is often referred to as shortwave radiation. See also
Insolation and Total solar irradiance (TSI).
Solar Radiation Management (SRM) Solar Radiation Management
refers to the intentional modification of the Earths shortwave radiative
budget with the aim to reduce climate change according to a given metric
(e.g., surface temperature, precipitation, regional impacts, etc). Artificial
injection of stratospheric aerosols and cloud brightening are two examples
of SRM techniques. Methods to modify some fast-responding elements of
the longwave radiative budget (such as cirrus clouds), although not strictly
speaking SRM, can be related to SRM. SRM techniques do not fall within
the usual definitions of mitigation and adaptation (IPCC, 2012, p. 2). See
also Solar radiation, Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) and Geoengineering.
Solubility pump Solubility pump is an important physicochemical process that transports dissolved inorganic carbon from the oceans surface
to its interior. This process controls the inventory of carbon in the ocean.
The solubility of gaseous carbon dioxide can alter carbon dioxide concentrations in the oceans and the overlying atmosphere. See also Biological
pump.
Source Any process, activity or mechanism that releases a greenhouse
gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol into the
atmosphere.
Southern Annular Mode (SAM) The leading mode of variability of
Southern Hemisphere geopotential height, which is associated with shifts
in the latitude of the midlatitude jet. See SAM Index, Box 2.5.
Southern Oscillation See El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) A band of low-level convergence, cloudiness and precipitation ranging from the west Pacific warm
pool south-eastwards towards French Polynesia, which is one of the most
significant features of subtropical Southern Hemisphere climate. It shares
some characteristics with the ITCZ, but is more extratropical in nature,
especially east of the Dateline.
Spatial and temporal scales Climate may vary on a large range of
spatial and temporal scales. Spatial scales may range from local (less than
100 000 km2), through regional (100 000 to 10 million km2) to continental
(10 to 100 million km2). Temporal scales may range from seasonal to geological (up to hundreds of millions of years).
Specific humidity The specific humidity specifies the ratio of the mass
of water vapour to the total mass of moist air. See also Relative humidity.
SRES scenarios SRES scenarios are emission scenarios developed by
Nakienovi and Swart (2000) and used, among others, as a basis for some
of the climate projections shown in Chapters 9 to 11 of IPCC (2001) and
Chapters 10 and 11 of IPCC (2007). The following terms are relevant for a
better understanding of the structure and use of the set of SRES scenarios:
Scenario family Scenarios that have a similar demographic, societal, economic and technical change storyline. Four scenario families
comprise the SRES scenario set: A1, A2, B1 and B2.
Glossary
Illustrative Scenario A scenario that is illustrative for each of

the six scenario groups reflected in the Summary for Policymakers of
Nakienovi and Swart (2000). They include four revised marker scenarios for the scenario groups A1B, A2, B1, B2 and two additional scenarios for the A1FI and A1T groups. All scenario groups are equally sound.
Marker Scenario A scenario that was originally posted in draft form
on the SRES website to represent a given scenario family. The choice of
markers was based on which of the initial quantifications best reflected
the storyline, and the features of specific models. Markers are no more
likely than other scenarios, but are considered by the SRES writing team
as illustrative of a particular storyline. They are included in revised form
in Nakienovi and Swart (2000). These scenarios received the closest
scrutiny of the entire writing team and via the SRES open process. Scenarios were also selected to illustrate the other two scenario groups.
Storyline A narrative description of a scenario (or family of scenarios), highlighting the main scenario characteristics, relationships
between key driving forces and the dynamics of their evolution.
Steric See Sea level change.
Stock See Reservoir.
Storm surge The temporary increase, at a particular locality, in the
height of the sea due to extreme meteorological conditions (low atmospheric pressure and/or strong winds). The storm surge is defined as being
the excess above the level expected from the tidal variation alone at that
time and place.
Storm tracks Originally, a term referring to the tracks of individual
cyclonic weather systems, but now often generalized to refer to the main
regions where the tracks of extratropical disturbances occur as sequences
of low (cyclonic) and high (anticyclonic) pressure systems.
Streamflow Water flow within a river channel, for example expressed

in m3 s1. A synonym for river discharge.
Subduction Ocean process in which surface waters enter the ocean
interior from the surface mixed layer through Ekman pumping and lateral
advection. The latter occurs when surface waters are advected to a region
where the local surface layer is less dense and therefore must slide below
the surface layer, usually with no change in density.
Sunspots Dark areas on the Sun where strong magnetic fields reduce
the convection causing a temperature reduction of about 1500 K compared to the surrounding regions. The number of sunspots is higher during
periods of higher solar activity, and varies in particular with the solar cycle.
Surface layer See Atmospheric boundary layer.
Surface temperature See Global mean surface temperature, Land
surface air temperature and Sea surface temperature.
Talik A layer of year-round unfrozen ground that lies in permafrost
areas.
Teleconnection A statistical association between climate variables at
widely separated, geographically-fixed spatial locations. Teleconnections
are caused by large spatial structures such as basin-wide coupled modes
of oceanatmosphere variability, Rossby wave-trains, mid-latitude jets and
storm tracks, etc. See also Teleconnection pattern.
Teleconnection pattern A correlation map obtained by calculating
the correlation between variables at different spatial locations and a climate index. It is the special case of a climate pattern obtained for stan-
Terrestrial radiation Radiation emitted by the Earths surface, the

atmosphere and the clouds. It is also known as thermal infrared or longwave radiation, and is to be distinguished from the near-infrared radiation that is part of the solar spectrum. Infrared radiation, in general, has a
distinctive range of wavelengths (spectrum) longer than the wavelength of
the red light in the visible part of the spectrum. The spectrum of terrestrial
radiation is almost entirely distinct from that of shortwave or solar radiation because of the difference in temperature between the Sun and the
Earthatmosphere system. See also Outgoing longwave radiation.
Thermal expansion In connection with sea level, this refers to the
increase in volume (and decrease in density) that results from warming
water. A warming of the ocean leads to an expansion of the ocean volume
and hence an increase in sea level. See also Sea level change.
Thermocline The layer of maximum vertical temperature gradient in
the ocean, lying between the surface ocean and the abyssal ocean. In subtropical regions, its source waters are typically surface waters at higher
latitudes that have subducted (see Subduction) and moved equatorward.
At high latitudes, it is sometimes absent, replaced by a halocline, which is
a layer of maximum vertical salinity gradient.
Thermohaline circulation (THC) Large-scale circulation in the ocean
that transforms low-density upper ocean waters to higher-density intermediate and deep waters and returns those waters back to the upper ocean.
The circulation is asymmetric, with conversion to dense waters in restricted regions at high latitudes and the return to the surface involving slow
upwelling and diffusive processes over much larger geographic regions.
The THC is driven by high densities at or near the surface, caused by cold
temperatures and/or high salinities, but despite its suggestive though
common name, is also driven by mechanical forces such as wind and tides.
Frequently, the name THC has been used synonymously with Meridional
Overturning Circulation.
Thermokarst The process by which characteristic landforms result from
the thawing of ice-rich permafrost or the melting of massive ground ice.
Thermosteric See Sea level change.
Tide gauge A device at a coastal or deep-sea location that continuously measures the level of the sea with respect to the adjacent land. Time
averaging of the sea level so recorded gives the observed secular changes
of the relative sea level.
Tipping point In climate, a hypothesized critical threshold when global
or regional climate changes from one stable state to another stable state.
The tipping point event may be irreversible. See also Irreversibility.
Total solar irradiance (TSI) The total amount of solar radiation in
watts per square metre received outside the Earths atmosphere on a
surface normal to the incident radiation, and at the Earths mean distance
from the Sun.
Reliable measurements of solar radiation can only be made from space
and the precise record extends back only to 1978. The generally accepted value is 1368 W m2 with an accuracy of about 0.2%. It has recently
been estimated to 1360.8 0.5 W m2 for the solar minimum of 2008.
Variations of a few tenths of a percent are common, usually associated with the passage of sunspots across the solar disk. The solar cycle
variation of TSI is of the order of 0.1% (AMS, 2000). Changes in the
ultraviolet part of the spectrum during a solar cycle are comparatively
larger (percent) than in TSI. See also Insolation.
201
Glossary
Stratosphere The highly stratified region of the atmosphere above the

troposphere extending from about 10 km (ranging from 9 km at high latitudes to 16 km in the tropics on average) to about 50 km altitude.
dardized variables and a standardized climate index, that is, the variables
and index are each centred and scaled to have zero mean and unit variance. One-point teleconnection maps are made by choosing a variable at
one of the locations to be the climate index. See also Teleconnection.
Glossary
Transient climate response See Climate sensitivity.

Transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE)
The transient global average surface temperature change per unit cumulated CO2 emissions, usually 1000 PgC. TCRE combines both information
on the airborne fraction of cumulated CO2 emissions (the fraction of the
total CO2 emitted that remains in the atmosphere), and on the transient
climate response (TCR).
Tree rings Concentric rings of secondary wood evident in a cross section of the stem of a woody plant. The difference between the dense, smallcelled late wood of one season and the wide-celled early wood of the
following spring enables the age of a tree to be estimated, and the ring
widths or density can be related to climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation. See also Proxy.
Trend In this report, the word trend designates a change, generally
monotonic in time, in the value of a variable.
Tropopause The boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere.
Troposphere The lowest part of the atmosphere, from the surface to
about 10 km in altitude at mid-latitudes (ranging from 9 km at high latitudes to 16 km in the tropics on average), where clouds and weather phenomena occur. In the troposphere, temperatures generally decrease with
height. See also Stratosphere.
Glossary
Turnover time See Lifetime.

Uncertainty A state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a
lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even
knowable. It may have many types of sources, from imprecision in the data
to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections
of human behaviour. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures (e.g., a probability density function) or by qualitative statements (e.g., reflecting the judgment of a team of experts) (see Moss and
Schneider, 2000; Manning et al., 2004; Mastrandrea et al., 2010). See also
Confidence and Likelihood.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) The Convention was adopted on 9 May 1992 in New York
and signed at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro by more than 150
countries and the European Community. Its ultimate objective is the stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level
that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate
system. It contains commitments for all Parties. Under the Convention,
Parties included in Annex I (all OECD countries and countries with economies in transition) aim to return greenhouse gas emissions not controlled
by the Montreal Protocol to 1990 levels by the year 2000. The convention
entered in force in March 1994. In 1997, the UNFCCC adopted the Kyoto
Protocol.
Uptake The addition of a substance of concern to a reservoir. The
uptake of carbon containing substances, in particular carbon dioxide, is
often called (carbon) sequestration.
Urban heat island (UHI) The relative warmth of a city compared with
surrounding rural areas, associated with changes in runoff, effects on heat
retention, and changes in surface albedo.
Ventilation The exchange of ocean properties with the atmospheric
surface layer such that property concentrations are brought closer to equilibrium values with the atmosphere (AMS, 2000), and the processes that
propagate these properties into the ocean interior.
Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) Important class of organic
chemical air pollutants that are volatile at ambient air conditions. Other
terms used to represent VOCs are hydrocarbons (HCs), reactive organic
202
gases (ROGs) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs).

NMVOCs are major contributors (together with NOx and CO) to the formation of photochemical oxidants such as ozone.
Walker Circulation Direct thermally driven zonal overturning circulation in the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific Ocean, with rising air in the
western and sinking air in the eastern Pacific.
Warm days/warm nights Days where maximum temperature, or
nights where minimum temperature, exceeds the 90th percentile, where
the respective temperature distributions are generally defined with respect
to the 19611990 reference period. For the corresponding indices, see Box
2.4.
Warm spell A period of abnormally hot weather. For the corresponding
indices, see Box 2.4. See also Heat wave.
Water cycle See Hydrological cycle.
Water mass A body of ocean water with identifiable properties (temperature, salinity, density, chemical tracers) resulting from its unique formation process. Water masses are often identified through a vertical or
horizontal extremum of a property such as salinity. North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) are examples
of water masses.
Weathering The gradual removal of atmospheric CO2 through dissolution of silicate and carbonate rocks. Weathering may involve physical
processes (mechanical weathering) or chemical activity (chemical weathering).
Well-mixed greenhouse gas See Greenhouse gas.
Younger Dryas A period 12.85 to 11.65 ka (thousand years before
1950), during the deglaciation, characterized by a temporary return to
colder conditions in many locations, especially around the North Atlantic.
Glossary
References
Nakienovi, N., and R. Swart (eds.), 2000: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A
Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA, 599 pp.
Schwartz, S.E., and P. Warneck, 1995: Units for use in atmospheric chemistry. Pure
Appl. Chem., 67, 13771406.
Glossary
AMS, 2000: AMS Glossary of Meteorology, 2nd ed. American Meteorological Society,
Boston, MA, http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/browse.
Hegerl, G. C., O. Hoegh-Guldberg, G. Casassa, M. P. Hoerling, R. S. Kovats, C. Parmesan,
D. W. Pierce, and P. A. Stott, 2010: Good practice guidance paper on detection
and attribution related to anthropogenic climate change. In: Meeting Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Expert Meeting on Detection
and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change [T. F. Stocker, C. B. Field, D.
Qin, V. Barros, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, P. M. Midgley and K. L. Ebi (eds.)]. IPCC
Working Group I Technical Support Unit, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
IPCC, 1992: Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific
Assessment [J. T. Houghton, B. A. Callander and S. K. Varney (eds.)]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 116 pp.
IPCC, 1996: Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change [J. T. Houghton., L. G. Meira . A. Callander, N. Harris,
A. Kattenberg and K. Maskell (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 572 pp.
IPCC, 2000: Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry. Special Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [R. T. Watson, I. R. Noble, B. Bolin,
N. H. Ravindranath, D. J. Verardo, and D. J. Dokken (eds.)]. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 377 pp.
IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noquer, P. J. van der
Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C. A. Johnson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881 pp.
IPCC, 2003: Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from
Direct Human-Induced Degradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other
Vegetation Types [Penman, J., M. Gytarsky, T. Hiraishi, T. Krug, D. Kruger, R. Pipatti,
L. Buendia, K. Miwa, T. Ngara, K. Tanabe and F. Wagner (eds.)]. The Institute for
Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan, 32 pp.
IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis,
K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.
IPCC, 2011: Workshop Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Workshop on Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine Biology and Ecosystems
[C. B. Field, V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, M. D.
Mastrandrea, M. Tignor and K. L. Ebi (eds.)]. IPCC Working Group II Technical
Support Unit, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA, USA, 164 pp.
IPCC, 2012: Meeting Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Expert Meeting on Geoengineering [O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona,
C. Field, V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, Q. Dahe, J. Minx, K. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S. Schlomer,
G. Hansen and M. Mastrandrea (eds.)]. IPCC Working Group III Technical Support
Unit, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, 99 pp.
Manning, M., et al., 2004: IPCC Workshop on Describing Scientific Uncertainties in
Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk of Options. Workshop Report. IPCC
Working Group I Technical Support Unit, Boulder, CO, USA, 138 pp.
Mastrandrea, M. D., C. B. Field, T. F. Stocker, O. Edenhofer, K. L. Ebi, D. J. Frame, H.
Held, E. Kriegler, K. J. Mach, P. R. Matschoss, G.-K. Plattner, G. W. Yohe, and F.
W. Zwiers, 2010: Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment
Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC). http://www.ipcc.ch.
Moss, R., and S. Schneider, 2000: Uncertainties in the IPCC TAR: Recommendations
to Lead Authors for More Consistent Assessment and Reporting. In: IPCC
Supporting Material: Guidance Papers on Cross Cutting Issues in the Third
Assessment Report of the IPCC. [Pachauri, R., T. Taniguchi, and K. Tanaka (eds.)].
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, pp. 3351.
Moss, R., et al., 2008: Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate
change, impacts and response strategies. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, Geneva, 132 pp.
Moss, R. et al., 2010: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research
and assessment. Nature, 463, 747756.
203

WG1AR5 SummaryVolume FINAL PDF

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

WG1AR5 SummaryVolume FINAL PDF

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

WG1AR5 SummaryVolume FINAL PDF

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

INTERGOV ERNMENTA L PA NEL ON

CLIMATE CHANGE 2013

Summary for Policymakers,

WORKING GROUP I CONTRIBUTION TO THE

Summary for Policymakers

Frequently Asked Questions

Melinda M.B. Tignor

Working Group I Technical Support Unit

Climate Change 2013

2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This Working Group I assessment was made possible thanks to the

Scope of the Report

Structure of the Report

The Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary of this report

The Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of

Information regarding detection of changes on global to regional

Future Climate Change, Predictability and Irreversibility (Chapters 11

in the online versions of the report to provide an additional level of

(15 May 1925 30 December 2007)

Summary for Policymakers

Frequently Asked Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Chapter 1 for Policymakers

Draft Contributing Authors:

This Summary for Policymakers should be cited as:

Summary for Policymakers

B. Observed Changes in the Climate System

Summary for Policymakers

Summary for Policymakers

Observed globally averaged combined land and ocean

Temperature anomaly (C) relative to 19611990

Observed change in surface temperature 19012012

0.6 0.4 0.2

Virtually certain {12.4}

More likely than not in the Western North Pacific

Likely (late 20th century)

Very likely l {13.7}

Likely (since 1970)

More likely than not in some basins

Medium confidence in some regions

Low confidence in long term (centennial) changes

Low confidenceg {11.3}

Medium confidence in some regions

Low confidence on a global scale

Likely (medium confidence) on a regional to

Likely more land areas with increases than decreases

Likely over many areas

Very likely over most of the mid-latitude land

Likely over many land areas

Likely more land areas with increases than decreasesc

Not formally assessed

Medium confidence in many (but not all) regions

Not formally assessedb

Medium confidence on a global scale

Increased incidence and/or

Heavy precipitation events.

Warm spells/heat waves.

Warmer and/or more

Virtually certain {12.4}

Late 21st century