Climate Change 2001 The Scientific Basis PDF

See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.
net/publication/216811760
Climate Change 2001: The Scientiﬁc Basis
Chapter · January 2001
CITATIONS READS
3,196 2,853
8 authors, including:
David J Griggs Maria Noguer

Monash University (Australia) University of Reading
42 PUBLICATIONS 7,726 CITATIONS 18 PUBLICATIONS 10,072 CITATIONS
SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE
Paul van der Linden

Met Office
19 PUBLICATIONS 6,859 CITATIONS
SEE PROFILE
Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:
Climate change: public health evidence View project
Yorta Yorta Country View project
All content following this page was uploaded by David J Griggs on 20 November 2014.
The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

CLIMATE CHANGE 2001:
THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis is the most comprehensive and up-to-date scientific assessment of past, present and
future climate change. The report:
• Analyses an enormous body of observations of all parts of the climate system.

• Catalogues increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases.
• Assesses our understanding of the processes and feedbacks which govern the climate system.
• Projects scenarios of future climate change using a wide range of models of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols.
• Makes a detailed study of whether a human influence on climate can be identified.
• Suggests gaps in information and understanding that remain in our knowledge of climate change and how these might be
addressed.
Simply put, this latest assessment of the IPCC will again form the standard scientific reference for all those concerned with climate
change and its consequences, including students and researchers in environmental science, meteorology, climatology, biology,
ecology and atmospheric chemistry, and policymakers in governments and industry worldwide.
J.T. Houghton is Co-Chair of Working Group I, IPCC.
Y. Ding is Co-Chair of Working Group I, IPCC.
D.J. Griggs is the Head of the Technical Support Unit, Working Group I, IPCC.
M. Noguer is the Deputy Head of the Technical Support Unit, Working Group I, IPCC.
P.J. van der Linden is the Project Administrator, Technical Support Unit, Working Group I, IPCC.
X. Dai is a Visiting Scientist, Technical Support Unit, Working Group I, IPCC.
K. Maskell is a Climate Scientist, Technical Support Unit, Working Group I, IPCC.
C.A. Johnson is a Climate Scientist, Technical Support Unit, Working Group I, IPCC.
Climate Change 2001:
The Scientific Basis
Edited by
J.T. Houghton Y. Ding D.J. Griggs

Co-Chair of Working Group I, IPCC Co-Chair of Working Group I, IPCC Head of Technical Support Unit,
Working Group I, IPCC
M. Noguer P.J. van der Linden X. Dai

Deputy Head of Technical Support Project Administrator, Technical Visiting Scientist, Technical Support
Unit, Working Group I, IPCC Support Unit, Working Group I, IPCC Unit, Working Group I, IPCC
K. Maskell C.A. Johnson

Climate Scientist, Technical Support Climate Scientist, Technical Support
Unit, Working Group I, IPCC Unit, Working Group I, IPCC
Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report

of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Published for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

iv
PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE

The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom
CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS

The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK
40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011–4211, USA
10 Stamford Road, Oakleigh, Melbourne 3166, Australia
Ruiz de Alarcón 13, 28014 Madrid, Spain
Dock House, The Waterfront, Cape Town 8001, South Africa
http://www.cambridge.org
© Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001
This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant
collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the
written permission of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
First published 2001
Printed in USA at the University Press, New York
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress cataloguing in publication data available
ISBN 0521 80767 0 hardback

ISBN 0521 01495 6 paperback
When citing chapters or the Technical Summary from this report, please use the authors in the order given on the chapter frontpage,
for example, Chapter 2 is referenced as:
Folland, C.K., T.R. Karl, J.R. Christy, R.A. Clarke, G.V. Gruza, J. Jouzel, M.E. Mann, J. Oerlemans, M.J. Salinger and S.-W. Wang,
2001: Observed Climate Variability and Change. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer,
P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and
New York, NY, USA, 881pp.
Reference to the whole report is:

IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K.
Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881pp.
Cover photo © Science Photo Library

v
Contents
Foreword vii
Preface ix
Summary for Policymakers 1
Technical Summary 21
1 The Climate System: an Overview 85
2 Observed Climate Variability and Change 99
3 The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 183
4 Atmospheric Chemistry and Greenhouse Gases 239
5 Aerosols, their Direct and Indirect Effects 289
6 Radiative Forcing of Climate Change 349
7 Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks 417
8 Model Evaluation 471
9 Projections of Future Climate Change 525
10 Regional Climate Information – Evaluation and Projections 583
11 Changes in Sea Level 639
12 Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes 695
13 Climate Scenario Development 739
14 Advancing Our Understanding 769
Appendix I Glossary 787
Appendix II SRES Tables 799
Appendix III Contributors to the IPCC WGI Third Assessment Report 827
Appendix IV Reviewers of the IPCC WGI Third Assessment Report 845
Appendix V Acronyms and Abbreviations 861
Appendix VI Units 869
Appendix VII Some Chemical Symbols used in this Report 871
Appendix VIII Index 873
vii
Foreword
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was We would particularly like to thank Dr Robert Watson,
jointly established by the World Meteorological Organization Chairman of the IPCC, for his sound direction and tireless and
(WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme able guidance of the IPCC, and Sir John Houghton and Prof.
(UNEP) in 1988. Its terms of reference include (i) to assess Ding Yihui, the Co-Chairmen of Working Group I, for their
available scientific and socio-economic information on climate skillful leadership of Working Group I through the production
change and its impacts and on the options for mitigating climate of this report.
change and adapting to it and (ii) to provide, on request,
scientific/technical/socio-economic advice to the Conference of
G.O.P. Obasi
the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention
Secretary General
on Climate Change (UNFCCC). From 1990, the IPCC has
World Meteorological Organization
produced a series of Assessment Reports, Special Reports,
Technical Papers, methodologies and other products that have K. Töpfer
become standard works of reference, widely used by policy- Executive Director
makers, scientists and other experts. United Nations Environment Programme
and
This volume, which forms part of the Third Assessment Report Director-General
(TAR), has been produced by Working Group I (WGI) of the United Nations Office in Nairobi
IPCC and focuses on the science of climate change. It consists
of 14 chapters covering the physical climate system, the factors
that drive climate change, analyses of past climate and
projections of future climate change, and detection and attribu-
tion of human influences on recent climate.
As is usual in the IPCC, success in producing this report has
depended first and foremost on the knowledge, enthusiasm and
co-operation of many hundreds of experts worldwide, in many
related but different disciplines. We would like to express our
gratitude to all the Co-ordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors,
Contributing Authors, Review Editors and Reviewers. These
individuals have devoted enormous time and effort to produce this
report and we are extremely grateful for their commitment to the
IPCC process. We would like to thank the staff of the WGI
Technical Support Unit and the IPCC Secretariat for their dedica-
tion in co-ordinating the production of another successful IPCC
report. We are also grateful to the governments, who have
supported their scientists’ participation in the IPCC process and
who have contributed to the IPCC Trust Fund to provide for the
essential participation of experts from developing countries and
countries with economies in transition. We would like to express
our appreciation to the governments of France, Tanzania, New
Zealand and Canada who hosted drafting sessions in their
countries, to the government of China, who hosted the final session
of Working Group I in Shanghai, and to the government of the
United Kingdom, who funded the WGI Technical Support Unit.
ix
Preface
This report is the first complete assessment of the science of This report was compiled between July 1998 and January
climate change since Working Group I (WGI) of the IPCC 2001, by 122 Lead Authors. In addition, 515 Contributing
produced its second report Climate Change 1995: The Science Authors submitted draft text and information to the Lead
of Climate Change in 1996. It enlarges upon and updates the Authors. The draft report was circulated for review by experts,
information contained in that, and previous, reports, but with 420 reviewers submitting valuable suggestions for
primarily it assesses new information and research, produced in improvement. This was followed by review by governments
the last five years. The report analyses the enormous body of and experts, through which several hundred more reviewers
observations of all parts of the climate system, concluding that participated. All the comments received were carefully
this body of observations now gives a collective picture of a analysed and assimilated into a revised document for consider-
warming world. The report catalogues the increasing ation at the session of Working Group I held in Shanghai, 17
concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases and assesses to 20 January 2001. There the Summary for Policymakers was
the effects of these gases and atmospheric aerosols in altering the approved in detail and the underlying report accepted.
radiation balance of the Earth-atmosphere system. The report
Strenuous efforts have also been made to maximise the ease of
assesses the understanding of the processes that govern the
utility of the report. As in 1996 the report contains a Summary
climate system and by studying how well the new generation
for Policymakers (SPM) and a Technical Summary (TS), in
of climate models represent these processes, assesses the
addition to the main chapters in the report. The SPM and the
suitability of the models for projecting climate change into the
TS follow the same structure, so that more information on
future. A detailed study is made of human influence on climate
items of interest in the SPM can easily be found in the TS. In
and whether it can be identified with any more confidence than
turn, each section of the SPM and TS has been referenced to
in 1996, concluding that there is new and stronger evidence
the appropriate section of the relevant chapter by the use of
that most of the observed warming observed over the last 50
Source Information, so that material in the SPM and TS can
years is attributable to human activities. Projections of future
easily be followed up in further detail in the chapters. The
climate change are presented using a wide range of scenarios
report also contains an index at Appendix VIII, which
of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Both
although not comprehensive allows for a search of the report
temperature and sea level are projected to continue to rise
at relatively top-level broad categories. By the end of 2001 a
throughout the 21st century for all scenarios studied. Finally,
more in-depth search will be possible on an electronic version
the report looks at the gaps in information and understanding
of the report, which will be found on the web at
that remain and how these might be addressed.
http://www.ipcc.ch.
This report on the scientific basis of climate change is the first
We wish to express our sincere appreciation to all the
part of Climate Change 2001, the Third Assessment Report
Co-ordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors and Review Editors
(TAR) of the IPCC. Other companion assessment volumes
whose expertise, diligence and patience have underpinned the
have been produced by Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation
successful completion of this report, and to the many contribu-
and Vulnerability) and by Working Group III (Mitigation). An
tors and reviewers for their valuable and painstaking dedica-
important aim of the TAR is to provide objective information
tion and work. We are grateful to Jean Jouzel, Hervé Le Treut,
on which to base climate change policies that will meet the
Buruhani Nyenzi, Jim Salinger, John Stone and Francis
Objective of the FCCC, expressed in Article 2, of stabilisation
Zwiers for helping to organise drafting meetings; and to Wang
of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level
Caifang for helping to organise the session of Working Group
that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with
I held in Shanghai, 17 to 20 January 2001.
the climate system. To assist further in this aim, as part of the
TAR a Synthesis Report is being produced that will draw from We would also like to thank members of the Working Group I
the Working Group Reports scientific and socio-economic Bureau, Buruhani Nyenzi, Armando Ramirez-Rojas, John
information relevant to nine questions addressing particular Stone, John Zillman and Fortunat Joos for their wise counsel
policy issues raised by the FCCC objective. and guidance throughout the preparation of the report.
x Preface
We would particularly like to thank Dave Griggs, Maria

Noguer, Paul van der Linden, Kathy Maskell, Xiaosu Dai,
Cathy Johnson, Anne Murrill and David Hall in the Working
Group I Technical Support Unit, with added assistance from
Alison Renshaw, for their tireless and good humoured
support throughout the preparation of the report. We would
also like to thank Narasimhan Sundararaman, the Secretary
of IPCC, Renate Christ, Deputy Secretary, and the staff of
the IPCC Secretariat, Rudie Bourgeois, Chantal Ettori and
Annie Courtin who provided logistical support for govern-
ment liaison and travel of experts from the developing and
transitional economy countries.
Robert Watson
IPCC Chairman
John Houghton
Co-chair IPCC WGI
Ding Yihui
Co-chair IPCC WGI
Summary for Policymakers
A R e p o r t o f Wo r k i n g G r o u p I o f t h e I n t e r g o v e r n m e n t a l
Panel on Climate Change
Based on a draft prepared by:

Daniel L. Albritton, Myles R. Allen, Alfons P. M. Baede, John A. Church, Ulrich Cubasch, Dai Xiaosu, Ding Yihui,
Dieter H. Ehhalt, Christopher K. Folland, Filippo Giorgi, Jonathan M. Gregory, David J. Griggs, Jim M. Haywood,
Bruce Hewitson, John T. Houghton, Joanna I. House, Michael Hulme, Ivar Isaksen, Victor J. Jaramillo, Achuthan Jayaraman,
Catherine A. Johnson, Fortunat Joos, Sylvie Joussaume, Thomas Karl, David J. Karoly, Haroon S. Kheshgi, Corrine Le Quéré,
Kathy Maskell, Luis J. Mata, Bryant J. McAvaney, Mack McFarland, Linda O. Mearns, Gerald A. Meehl, L. Gylvan Meira-Filho,
Valentin P. Meleshko, John F. B. Mitchell, Berrien Moore, Richard K. Mugara, Maria Noguer, Buruhani S. Nyenzi,
Michael Oppenheimer, Joyce E. Penner, Steven Pollonais, Michael Prather, I. Colin Prentice, Venkatchalam Ramaswamy,
Armando Ramirez-Rojas, Sarah C. B. Raper, M. Jim Salinger, Robert J. Scholes, Susan Solomon, Thomas F. Stocker,
John M. R. Stone, Ronald J. Stouffer, Kevin E. Trenberth, Ming-Xing Wang, Robert T. Watson, Kok S. Yap, John Zillman
with contributions from many authors and reviewers.
1
Summary for Policymakers
The Third Assessment Report of Working Group I of the has increased since 1861. Over the 20th century the increase
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) builds has been 0.6 ± 0.2°C5,6 (Figure 1a). This value is about 0.15°C
upon past assessments and incorporates new results from the larger than that estimated by the SAR for the period up to
past five years of research on climate change1. Many hundreds 1994, owing to the relatively high temperatures of the
of scientists2 from many countries participated in its preparation additional years (1995 to 2000) and improved methods of
and review. processing the data. These numbers take into account various
adjustments, including urban heat island effects. The record
This Summary for Policymakers (SPM), which was approved
shows a great deal of variability; for example, most of the
by IPCC member governments in Shanghai in January 20013,
warming occurred during the 20th century, during two
describes the current state of understanding of the climate
periods, 1910 to 1945 and 1976 to 2000.
system and provides estimates of its projected future evolution
and their uncertainties. Further details can be found in the ● Globally, it is very likely7 that the 1990s was the warmest
underlying report, and the appended Source Information decade and 1998 the warmest year in the instrumental
provides cross references to the report's chapters. record, since 1861 (see Figure 1a).
● New analyses of proxy data for the Northern Hemisphere
indicate that the increase in temperature in the 20th century
An increasing body of observations is likely7 to have been the largest of any century during the
gives a c o l l e c t i v e p i c t u r e o f a past 1,000 years. It is also likely7 that, in the Northern
w a r m i n g w o r l d and other changes Hemisphere, the 1990s was the warmest decade and 1998
in the climate system. the warmest year (Figure 1b). Because less data are
available, less is known about annual averages prior to
Since the release of the Second Assessment Report (SAR4), 1,000 years before present and for conditions prevailing in
additional data from new studies of current and palaeoclimates, most of the Southern Hemisphere prior to 1861.
improved analysis of data sets, more rigorous evaluation of
their quality, and comparisons among data from different ● On average, between 1950 and 1993, night-time daily
sources have led to greater understanding of climate change. minimum air temperatures over land increased by about
0.2°C per decade. This is about twice the rate of increase in
daytime daily maximum air temperatures (0.1°C per decade).
The global average surface temperature
This has lengthened the freeze-free season in many mid- and
has increased over the 20th century by
high latitude regions. The increase in sea surface temperature
about 0.6°C.
over this period is about half that of the mean land surface
● The global average surface temperature (the average of near air temperature.
surface air temperature over land, and sea surface temperature)
1 Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This usage differs
from that in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to
human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
2 In total 122 Co-ordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors, 515 Contributing Authors, 21 Review Editors and 420 Expert Reviewers.
3
Delegations of 99 IPCC member countries participated in the Eighth Session of Working Group I in Shanghai on 17 to 20 January 2001.
4
The IPCC Second Assessment Report is referred to in this Summary for Policymakers as the SAR.
5
Generally temperature trends are rounded to the nearest 0.05°C per unit time, the periods often being limited by data availability.
6
In general, a 5% statistical significance level is used, and a 95% confidence level.
7
In this Summary for Policymakers and in the Technical Summary, the following words have been used where appropriate to indicate judgmental estimates of
confidence: virtually certain (greater than 99% chance that a result is true); very likely (90−99% chance); likely (66−90% chance); medium likelihood (33−66%
chance); unlikely (10−33% chance); very unlikely (1−10% chance); exceptionally unlikely (less than 1% chance). The reader is referred to individual chapters
for more details.
2
Figure 1: Variations of the Earth’s
Variations of the Earth's surface temperature for: surface temperature over the last
140 years and the last millennium.
(a) the past 140 years
(a) The Earth’s surface temperature is
0.8 shown year by year (red bars) and
GLOBAL approximately decade by decade (black
Departures in temperature (°C)
from the 1961 to 1990 average
line, a filtered annual curve suppressing

0.4 fluctuations below near decadal
time-scales). There are uncertainties in
the annual data (thin black whisker
bars represent the 95% confidence
0.0
range) due to data gaps, random
instrumental errors and uncertainties,
uncertainties in bias corrections in the
−0.4 ocean surface temperature data and
also in adjustments for urbanisation over
Data from thermometers. the land. Over both the last 140 years
−0.8 and 100 years, the best estimate is that
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 the global average surface temperature
Year has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C.
(b) Additionally, the year by year (blue

curve) and 50 year average (black
(b) the past 1,000 years
curve) variations of the average surface
temperature of the Northern Hemisphere
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE for the past 1000 years have been
0.5 reconstructed from “proxy” data
calibrated against thermometer data (see
list of the main proxy data in the

diagram). The 95% confidence range in
the annual data is represented by the
0.0
grey region. These uncertainties increase
in more distant times and are always
much larger than in the instrumental
record due to the use of relatively sparse
−0.5 proxy data. Nevertheless the rate and
duration of warming of the 20th century
has been much greater than in any of
the previous nine centuries. Similarly, it
−1.0 is likely7 that the 1990s have been the
Data from thermometers (red) and from tree rings,
warmest decade and 1998 the warmest
corals, ice cores and historical records (blue).
year of the millennium.
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [Based upon (a) Chapter 2, Figure 2.7c
Year
and (b) Chapter 2, Figure 2.20]
3
Te m p e r a t u r e s h a v e r i s e n d u r i n g t h e p a s t Global average sea level has risen and
four decades in the lowest 8 kilometres of ocean heat content has increased.
the atmosphere.
● Tide gauge data show that global average sea level rose
● Since the late 1950s (the period of adequate observations between 0.1 and 0.2 metres during the 20th century.
from weather balloons), the overall global temperature
● Global ocean heat content has increased since the late 1950s,
increases in the lowest 8 kilometres of the atmosphere and
the period for which adequate observations of sub-surface
in surface temperature have been similar at 0.1°C per decade.
ocean temperatures have been available.
● Since the start of the satellite record in 1979, both satellite
and weather balloon measurements show that the global Changes have also occurred in other
average temperature of the lowest 8 kilometres of the important aspects of climate.
atmosphere has changed by +0.05 ± 0.10°C per decade, but the
global average surface temperature has increased significantly ● It is very likely7 that precipitation has increased by 0.5 to
by +0.15 ± 0.05°C per decade. The difference in the warming 1% per decade in the 20th century over most mid- and
rates is statistically significant. This difference occurs high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere continents, and
primarily over the tropical and sub-tropical regions. it is likely7 that rainfall has increased by 0.2 to 0.3% per
decade over the tropical (10°N to 10°S) land areas.
● The lowest 8 kilometres of the atmosphere and the surface Increases in the tropics are not evident over the past few
are influenced differently by factors such as stratospheric decades. It is also likely7 that rainfall has decreased over
ozone depletion, atmospheric aerosols, and the El Niño much of the Northern Hemisphere sub-tropical (10°N to
phenomenon. Hence, it is physically plausible to expect that 30°N) land areas during the 20th century by about 0.3%
over a short time period (e.g., 20 years) there may be per decade. In contrast to the Northern Hemisphere, no
differences in temperature trends. In addition, spatial sampling comparable systematic changes have been detected in
techniques can also explain some of the differences in broad latitudinal averages over the Southern Hemisphere.
trends, but these differences are not fully resolved. There are insufficient data to establish trends in precipitation
over the oceans.
Snow cover and ice extent have decreased.
● In the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere
● Satellite data show that there are very likely7 to have been over the latter half of the 20th century, it is likely7 that there
decreases of about 10% in the extent of snow cover since has been a 2 to 4% increase in the frequency of heavy
the late 1960s, and ground-based observations show that precipitation events. Increases in heavy precipitation events
there is very likely7 to have been a reduction of about two can arise from a number of causes, e.g., changes in
weeks in the annual duration of lake and river ice cover in atmospheric moisture, thunderstorm activity and large-scale
the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, storm activity.
over the 20th century.
● It is likely7 that there has been a 2% increase in cloud cover
● There has been a widespread retreat of mountain glaciers in over mid- to high latitude land areas during the 20th century.
non-polar regions during the 20th century. In most areas the trends relate well to the observed decrease
in daily temperature range.
● Northern Hemisphere spring and summer sea-ice extent has
decreased by about 10 to 15% since the 1950s. It is likely7 ● Since 1950 it is very likely7 that there has been a reduction
that there has been about a 40% decline in Arctic sea-ice in the frequency of extreme low temperatures, with a smaller
thickness during late summer to early autumn in recent increase in the frequency of extreme high temperatures.
decades and a considerably slower decline in winter sea-ice
thickness.
4
● Warm episodes of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Emissions of greenhouse gases and
phenomenon (which consistently affects regional variations aerosols due to human activities
of precipitation and temperature over much of the tropics, continue to alter the atmosphere in
sub-tropics and some mid-latitude areas) have been more
ways that are expected to affect the
frequent, persistent and intense since the mid-1970s,
compared with the previous 100 years.
climate.
Changes in climate occur as a result of both internal variability
● Over the 20th century (1900 to 1995), there were relatively
within the climate system and external factors (both natural
small increases in global land areas experiencing severe
and anthropogenic). The influence of external factors on
drought or severe wetness. In many regions, these changes
climate can be broadly compared using the concept of
are dominated by inter-decadal and multi-decadal climate
radiative forcing8. A positive radiative forcing, such as that
variability, such as the shift in ENSO towards more warm
produced by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases,
events.
tends to warm the surface. A negative radiative forcing, which
● In some regions, such as parts of Asia and Africa, the can arise from an increase in some types of aerosols
frequency and intensity of droughts have been observed to (microscopic airborne particles) tends to cool the surface.
increase in recent decades. Natural factors, such as changes in solar output or explosive
volcanic activity, can also cause radiative forcing.
Some important aspects of climate appear Characterisation of these climate forcing agents and their
not to have changed. changes over time (see Figure 2) is required to understand past
climate changes in the context of natural variations and to
● A few areas of the globe have not warmed in recent decades,
project what climate changes could lie ahead. Figure 3 shows
mainly over some parts of the Southern Hemisphere oceans
current estimates of the radiative forcing due to increased
and parts of Antarctica.
concentrations of atmospheric constituents and other
● No significant trends of Antarctic sea-ice extent are apparent mechanisms.
since 1978, the period of reliable satellite measurements.
● Changes globally in tropical and extra-tropical storm
intensity and frequency are dominated by inter-decadal to
multi-decadal variations, with no significant trends evident
over the 20th century. Conflicting analyses make it difficult
to draw definitive conclusions about changes in storm
activity, especially in the extra-tropics.
● No systematic changes in the frequency of tornadoes, thunder
days, or hail events are evident in the limited areas analysed.
8
Radiative forcing is a measure of the influence a factor has in altering the balance of incoming and outgoing energy in the Earth-atmosphere system, and
is an index of the importance of the factor as a potential climate change mechanism. It is expressed in Watts per square metre (Wm−2).
5
Figure 2: Long records of past changes in
Indicators of the human influence on the atmosphere
atmospheric composition provide the context for
during the Industrial Era
the influence of anthropogenic emissions.
(a) Global atmospheric concentrations of three well mixed (a) shows changes in the atmospheric
greenhouse gases concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane
(CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) over the past 1000
1.5 years. The ice core and firn data for several sites in
360 Carbon dioxide
Antarctica and Greenland (shown by different
340 1.0
CO2 (ppm)
symbols) are supplemented with the data from direct

320
atmospheric samples over the past few decades
0.5
300 (shown by the line for CO2 and incorporated in the
280 0.0 curve representing the global average of CH4). The
260 estimated positive radiative forcing of the climate
system from these gases is indicated on the right-
Atmospheric concentration
Radiative forcing (Wm−2)

hand scale. Since these gases have atmospheric
1750
Methane 0.5 lifetimes of a decade or more, they are well mixed,
0.4 and their concentrations reflect emissions from
1500
CH4 (ppb)
0.3 sources throughout the globe. All three records show

1250 effects of the large and increasing growth in
0.2
1000 anthropogenic emissions during the Industrial Era.
0.1
750 (b) illustrates the influence of industrial emissions on
0.0
atmospheric sulphate concentrations, which produce
negative radiative forcing. Shown is the time history
0.15
310 Nitrous oxide of the concentrations of sulphate, not in the
0.10 atmosphere but in ice cores in Greenland (shown by
N2O (ppb)
lines; from which the episodic effects of volcanic

290
0.05 eruptions have been removed). Such data indicate
the local deposition of sulphate aerosols at the site,
270 0.0
reflecting sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions at
mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. This
250 record, albeit more regional than that of the
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
globally-mixed greenhouse gases, demonstrates the
Year
large growth in anthropogenic SO2 emissions during
(b) Sulphate aerosols deposited in Greenland ice the Industrial Era. The pluses denote the relevant
regional estimated SO2 emissions (right-hand scale).
(mg SO42– per tonne of ice)
SO2 emissions (Millions of

tonnes sulphur per year)
200 Sulphur [Based upon (a) Chapter 3, Figure 3.2b (CO2);

Sulphate concentration
Chapter 4, Figure 4.1a and b (CH4) and Chapter 4,

50
Figure 4.2 (N2O) and (b) Chapter 5, Figure 5.4a]
100
25
0 0
1600 1800 2000
Year
6
Concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse ● The atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide (N2O) has
gases and their radiative forcing have increased by 46 ppb (17%) since 1750 and continues to
continued to increase as a result of human increase. The present N2O concentration has not been
activities. exceeded during at least the past thousand years. About a
● The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has third of current N2O emissions are anthropogenic (e.g.,
increased by 31% since 1750. The present CO2 concentration agricultural soils, cattle feed lots and chemical industry).
has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years and ● Since 1995, the atmospheric concentrations of many of
likely7 not during the past 20 million years. The current rate those halocarbon gases that are both ozone-depleting and
of increase is unprecedented during at least the past 20,000 greenhouse gases (e.g., CFCl3 and CF2Cl2), are either
years. increasing more slowly or decreasing, both in response to
● About three-quarters of the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 reduced emissions under the regulations of the Montreal
to the atmosphere during the past 20 years is due to fossil Protocol and its Amendments. Their substitute compounds
fuel burning. The rest is predominantly due to land-use (e.g., CHF2Cl and CF3CH2F) and some other synthetic
change, especially deforestation. compounds (e.g., perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur
hexafluoride (SF6)) are also greenhouse gases, and their
● Currently the ocean and the land together are taking up concentrations are currently increasing.
about half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions. On land,
● The radiative forcing due to increases of the well-mixed
the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 very likely7 exceeded the
release of CO2 by deforestation during the 1990s. greenhouse gases from 1750 to 2000 is estimated to be
2.43 Wm−2: 1.46 Wm−2 from CO2; 0.48 Wm−2 from CH4;
● The rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration has 0.34 Wm−2 from the halocarbons; and 0.15 Wm−2 from N2O.
been about 1.5 ppm9 (0.4%) per year over the past two (See Figure 3, where the uncertainties are also illustrated.)
decades. During the 1990s the year to year increase varied
● The observed depletion of the stratospheric ozone (O3)
from 0.9 ppm (0.2%) to 2.8 ppm (0.8%). A large part of this
variability is due to the effect of climate variability (e.g., El layer from 1979 to 2000 is estimated to have caused a
Niño events) on CO2 uptake and release by land and oceans. negative radiative forcing (–0.15 Wm−2). Assuming full
compliance with current halocarbon regulations, the positive
● The atmospheric concentration of methane (CH4) has forcing of the halocarbons will be reduced as will the
increased by 1060 ppb9 (151%) since 1750 and continues magnitude of the negative forcing from stratospheric ozone
to increase. The present CH4 concentration has not been depletion as the ozone layer recovers over the 21st century.
exceeded during the past 420,000 years. The annual
● The total amount of O3 in the troposphere is estimated to
growth in CH4 concentration slowed and became more
variable in the 1990s, compared with the 1980s. Slightly have increased by 36% since 1750, due primarily to
more than half of current CH4 emissions are anthropogenic anthropogenic emissions of several O3-forming gases. This
(e.g., use of fossil fuels, cattle, rice agriculture and corresponds to a positive radiative forcing of 0.35 Wm−2.
landfills). In addition, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions O3 forcing varies considerably by region and responds
have recently been identified as a cause of increasing CH4 much more quickly to changes in emissions than the long-
concentration. lived greenhouse gases, such as CO2.
9 ppm (parts per million) or ppb (parts per billion, 1 billion = 1,000 million) is the ratio of the number of greenhouse gas molecules to the total number of
molecules of dry air. For example: 300 ppm means 300 molecules of a greenhouse gas per million molecules of dry air.
7
The global mean radiative forcing of the climate system
for the year 2000, relative to 1750
3
Halocarbons
Radiative forcing (Watts per square metre)
2 N2O Aerosols
CH4
Black
carbon from
Warming
CO2 fossil
1 Tropospheric Mineral Aviation-induced
fuel
ozone burning Dust Solar
Contrails Cirrus
0
Stratospheric Organic
ozone carbon Biomass Land-
Cooling
use
−1 Sulphate from burning Aerosol (albedo)
fossil indirect
fuel effect only
burning
−2
High Medium Medium Low Very Very Very Very Very Very Very Very
Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low
Level of Scientific Understanding
Figure 3: Many external factors force climate change.
These radiative forcings arise from changes in the atmospheric composition, alteration of surface reflectance by land use, and variation in the output
of the sun. Except for solar variation, some form of human activity is linked to each. The rectangular bars represent estimates of the contributions of
these forcings − some of which yield warming, and some cooling. Forcing due to episodic volcanic events, which lead to a negative forcing lasting
only for a few years, is not shown. The indirect effect of aerosols shown is their effect on the size and number of cloud droplets. A second indirect
effect of aerosols on clouds, namely their effect on cloud lifetime, which would also lead to a negative forcing, is not shown. Effects of aviation on
greenhouse gases are included in the individual bars. The vertical line about the rectangular bars indicates a range of estimates, guided by the
spread in the published values of the forcings and physical understanding. Some of the forcings possess a much greater degree of certainty than
others. A vertical line without a rectangular bar denotes a forcing for which no best estimate can be given owing to large uncertainties. The overall
level of scientific understanding for each forcing varies considerably, as noted. Some of the radiative forcing agents are well mixed over the globe,
such as CO2, thereby perturbing the global heat balance. Others represent perturbations with stronger regional signatures because of their spatial
distribution, such as aerosols. For this and other reasons, a simple sum of the positive and negative bars cannot be expected to yield the net effect
on the climate system. The simulations of this assessment report (for example, Figure 5) indicate that the estimated net effect of these perturbations
is to have warmed the global climate since 1750. [Based upon Chapter 6, Figure 6.6]
8
Anthropogenic aerosols are short-lived and Confidence in the ability of models
mostly produce negative radiative forcing. to project future climate has
● The major sources of anthropogenic aerosols are fossil fuel increased.
and biomass burning. These sources are also linked to Complex physically-based climate models are required to
degradation of air quality and acid deposition. provide detailed estimates of feedbacks and of regional
● Since the SAR, significant progress has been achieved in features. Such models cannot yet simulate all aspects of
better characterising the direct radiative roles of different climate (e.g., they still cannot account fully for the observed
types of aerosols. Direct radiative forcing is estimated to be trend in the surface-troposphere temperature difference since
−0.4 Wm−2 for sulphate, −0.2 Wm−2 for biomass burning 1979) and there are particular uncertainties associated with
aerosols, −0.1 Wm−2 for fossil fuel organic carbon and clouds and their interaction with radiation and aerosols.
+0.2 Wm−2 for fossil fuel black carbon aerosols. There is Nevertheless, confidence in the ability of these models to
much less confidence in the ability to quantify the total provide useful projections of future climate has improved due
aerosol direct effect, and its evolution over time, than that to their demonstrated performance on a range of space and
for the gases listed above. Aerosols also vary considerably time-scales.
by region and respond quickly to changes in emissions. ● Understanding of climate processes and their incorporation
● In addition to their direct radiative forcing, aerosols have an in climate models have improved, including water vapour,
indirect radiative forcing through their effects on clouds. sea-ice dynamics, and ocean heat transport.
There is now more evidence for this indirect effect, which is ● Some recent models produce satisfactory simulations of
negative, although of very uncertain magnitude. current climate without the need for non-physical adjustments
of heat and water fluxes at the ocean-atmosphere interface
Natural factors have made small used in earlier models.
contributions to radiative forcing over the
● Simulations that include estimates of natural and
p a s t c e n t u r y.
anthropogenic forcing reproduce the observed large-scale
● The radiative forcing due to changes in solar irradiance for changes in surface temperature over the 20th century
the period since 1750 is estimated to be about +0.3 Wm−2, (Figure 4). However, contributions from some additional
most of which occurred during the first half of the 20th processes and forcings may not have been included in the
century. Since the late 1970s, satellite instruments have models. Nevertheless, the large-scale consistency between
observed small oscillations due to the 11-year solar cycle. models and observations can be used to provide an
Mechanisms for the amplification of solar effects on independent check on projected warming rates over the next
climate have been proposed, but currently lack a rigorous few decades under a given emissions scenario.
theoretical or observational basis.
● Some aspects of model simulations of ENSO, monsoons
● Stratospheric aerosols from explosive volcanic eruptions and the North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as selected
lead to negative forcing, which lasts a few years. Several periods of past climate, have improved.
major eruptions occurred in the periods 1880 to 1920 and
1960 to 1991.
● The combined change in radiative forcing of the two major
natural factors (solar variation and volcanic aerosols) is
estimated to be negative for the past two, and possibly the
past four, decades.
9
There is new and stronger evidence
that most of the warming observed
over the last 50 years is attrib-
utable to human activities.
The SAR concluded: “The balance of evidence suggests a ● Detection and attribution studies comparing model
discernible human influence on global climate”. That report simulated changes with the observed record can now take
also noted that the anthropogenic signal was still emerging from into account uncertainty in the magnitude of modelled
the background of natural climate variability. Since the SAR, response to external forcing, in particular that due to
progress has been made in reducing uncertainty, particularly uncertainty in climate sensitivity.
with respect to distinguishing and quantifying the magnitude
● Most of these studies find that, over the last 50 years, the
of responses to different external influences. Although many
estimated rate and magnitude of warming due to increasing
of the sources of uncertainty identified in the SAR still remain
concentrations of greenhouse gases alone are comparable
to some degree, new evidence and improved understanding
with, or larger than, the observed warming. Furthermore,
support an updated conclusion.
most model estimates that take into account both
● There is a longer and more closely scrutinised temperature greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols are consistent with
record and new model estimates of variability. The warming observations over this period.
over the past 100 years is very unlikely7 to be due to
● The best agreement between model simulations and
internal variability alone, as estimated by current models.
observations over the last 140 years has been found when
Reconstructions of climate data for the past 1,000 years
all the above anthropogenic and natural forcing factors are
(Figure 1b) also indicate that this warming was unusual and
combined, as shown in Figure 4c. These results show that
is unlikely7 to be entirely natural in origin.
the forcings included are sufficient to explain the observed
● There are new estimates of the climate response to natural changes, but do not exclude the possibility that other
and anthropogenic forcing, and new detection techniques forcings may also have contributed.
have been applied. Detection and attribution studies consis-
tently find evidence for an anthropogenic signal in the In the light of new evidence and taking into account the
climate record of the last 35 to 50 years. remaining uncertainties, most of the observed warming over
● Simulations of the response to natural forcings alone (i.e., the last 50 years is likely7 to have been due to the increase in
the response to variability in solar irradiance and volcanic greenhouse gas concentrations.
eruptions) do not explain the warming in the second half of Furthermore, it is very likely7 that the 20th century warming
the 20th century (see for example Figure 4a). However, they has contributed significantly to the observed sea level rise,
indicate that natural forcings may have contributed to the through thermal expansion of sea water and widespread loss of
observed warming in the first half of the 20th century. land ice. Within present uncertainties, observations and models
● The warming over the last 50 years due to anthropogenic are both consistent with a lack of significant acceleration of
greenhouse gases can be identified despite uncertainties in sea level rise during the 20th century.
forcing due to anthropogenic sulphate aerosol and natural
factors (volcanoes and solar irradiance). The anthropogenic
sulphate aerosol forcing, while uncertain, is negative over
this period and therefore cannot explain the warming.
Changes in natural forcing during most of this period are
also estimated to be negative and are unlikely7 to explain
the warming.
10
Simulated annual global mean surface temperatures
(a) Natural (b) Anthropogenic
1.0 1.0
Temperature anomalies (°C)

model model
observations observations
0.5 0.5
0.0 0.0
−0.5 −0.5
−1.0 −1.0
1850 1900 1950 2000 1850 1900 1950 2000
Year Year
(c) All forcings

1.0
model
observations
0.5
0.0
−0.5
−1.0
1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Figure 4: Simulating the Earth’s temperature variations, and comparing the results to measured changes, can provide insight into the
underlying causes of the major changes.
A climate model can be used to simulate the temperature changes that occur both from natural and anthropogenic causes. The simulations
represented by the band in (a) were done with only natural forcings: solar variation and volcanic activity. Those encompassed by the band in (b) were
done with anthropogenic forcings: greenhouse gases and an estimate of sulphate aerosols, and those encompassed by the band in (c) were done with
both natural and anthropogenic forcings included. From (b), it can be seen that inclusion of anthropogenic forcings provides a plausible explanation
for a substantial part of the observed temperature changes over the past century, but the best match with observations is obtained in (c) when both
natural and anthropogenic factors are included. These results show that the forcings included are sufficient to explain the observed changes, but do
not exclude the possibility that other forcings may also have contributed. The bands of model results presented here are for four runs from the same
model. Similar results to those in (b) are obtained with other models with anthropogenic forcing. [Based upon Chapter 12, Figure 12.7]
11
Human influences will continue to
change atmospheric composition
t h r o u g h o u t t h e 2 1 s t c e n t u r y.
Models have been used to make projections of atmospheric by +38 to +144 ppb (present concentration 316 ppb), total
concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and hence of tropospheric O3 changing by −12 to +62%, and a wide
future climate, based upon emissions scenarios from the IPCC range of changes in concentrations of HFCs, PFCs and SF6,
Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (Figure 5). all relative to the year 2000. In some scenarios, total tropos-
These scenarios were developed to update the IS92 series, pheric O3 would become as important a radiative forcing
which were used in the SAR and are shown for comparison agent as CH4 and, over much of the Northern Hemisphere,
here in some cases. would threaten the attainment of current air quality targets.
● Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and the gases that
Greenhouse gases control their concentration would be necessary to stabilise
● Emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning are virtually radiative forcing. For example, for the most important
certain7 to be the dominant influence on the trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas, carbon cycle models indicate
atmospheric CO2 concentration during the 21st century. that stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 450,
650 or 1,000 ppm would require global anthropogenic CO2
● As the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere increases, ocean emissions to drop below 1990 levels, within a few decades,
and land will take up a decreasing fraction of anthropogenic about a century, or about two centuries, respectively, and
CO2 emissions. The net effect of land and ocean climate continue to decrease steadily thereafter. Eventually CO2
feedbacks as indicated by models is to further increase emissions would need to decline to a very small fraction of
projected atmospheric CO2 concentrations, by reducing current emissions.
both the ocean and land uptake of CO2.
● By 2100, carbon cycle models project atmospheric CO2 Aerosols
concentrations of 540 to 970 ppm for the illustrative SRES
● The SRES scenarios include the possibility of either increases
scenarios (90 to 250% above the concentration of 280 ppm
or decreases in anthropogenic aerosols (e.g., sulphate
in the year 1750), Figure 5b. These projections include the
aerosols (Figure 5c), biomass aerosols, black and organic
land and ocean climate feedbacks. Uncertainties, especially
carbon aerosols) depending on the extent of fossil fuel use
about the magnitude of the climate feedback from the
and policies to abate polluting emissions. In addition,
terrestrial biosphere, cause a variation of about −10 to
natural aerosols (e.g., sea salt, dust and emissions leading to
+30% around each scenario. The total range is 490 to 1260
the production of sulphate and carbon aerosols) are
ppm (75 to 350% above the 1750 concentration).
projected to increase as a result of changes in climate.
● Changing land use could influence atmospheric CO2
concentration. Hypothetically, if all of the carbon released Radiative forcing over the 21st century
by historical land-use changes could be restored to the
terrestrial biosphere over the course of the century (e.g., by ● For the SRES illustrative scenarios, relative to the year
reforestation), CO2 concentration would be reduced by 40 2000, the global mean radiative forcing due to greenhouse
to 70 ppm. gases continues to increase through the 21st century, with
the fraction due to CO2 projected to increase from slightly
● Model calculations of the concentrations of the non-CO2 more than half to about three quarters. The change in the
greenhouse gases by 2100 vary considerably across the direct plus indirect aerosol radiative forcing is projected to
SRES illustrative scenarios, with CH4 changing by –190 to be smaller in magnitude than that of CO2.
+1,970 ppb (present concentration 1,760 ppb), N2O changing
12
Global average temperature and sea
level are projected to rise under all
IPCC SRES scenarios.
In order to make projections of future climate, models warming is likely7 to lie in the range of 0.1 to 0.2°C per
incorporate past, as well as future emissions of greenhouse decade over the next few decades under the IS92a scenario,
gases and aerosols. Hence, they include estimates of warming similar to the corresponding range of projections of the
to date and the commitment to future warming from past simple model used in Figure 5d.
emissions.
● Based on recent global model simulations, it is very likely7
that nearly all land areas will warm more rapidly than the
Te m p e r a t u r e global average, particularly those at northern high latitudes
● The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to in the cold season. Most notable of these is the warming in
increase by 1.4 to 5.8°C (Figure 5d) over the period 1990 to the northern regions of North America, and northern and
2100. These results are for the full range of 35 SRES central Asia, which exceeds global mean warming in each
scenarios, based on a number of climate models10,11. model by more than 40%. In contrast, the warming is less
than the global mean change in south and southeast Asia in
● Temperature increases are projected to be greater than those summer and in southern South America in winter.
in the SAR, which were about 1.0 to 3.5°C based on the six
IS92 scenarios. The higher projected temperatures and the ● Recent trends for surface temperature to become more
wider range are due primarily to the lower projected El Niño-like in the tropical Pacific, with the eastern tropical
sulphur dioxide emissions in the SRES scenarios relative to Pacific warming more than the western tropical Pacific,
the IS92 scenarios. with a corresponding eastward shift of precipitation, are
projected to continue in many models.
● The projected rate of warming is much larger than the
observed changes during the 20th century and is very likely7
Precipitation
to be without precedent during at least the last 10,000 years,
based on palaeoclimate data. ● Based on global model simulations and for a wide range of
scenarios, global average water vapour concentration and
● By 2100, the range in the surface temperature response
precipitation are projected to increase during the 21st
across the group of climate models run with a given
century. By the second half of the 21st century, it is likely7
scenario is comparable to the range obtained from a single
that precipitation will have increased over northern mid- to
model run with the different SRES scenarios.
high latitudes and Antarctica in winter. At low latitudes
● On timescales of a few decades, the current observed rate of there are both regional increases and decreases over land
warming can be used to constrain the projected response to areas. Larger year to year variations in precipitation are
a given emissions scenario despite uncertainty in climate very likely7 over most areas where an increase in mean
sensitivity. This approach suggests that anthropogenic precipitation is projected.
10
Complex physically based climate models are the main tool for projecting future climate change. In order to explore the full range of scenarios, these are
complemented by simple climate models calibrated to yield an equivalent response in temperature and sea level to complex climate models. These
projections are obtained using a simple climate model whose climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake are calibrated to each of seven complex climate
models. The climate sensitivity used in the simple model ranges from 1.7 to 4.2°C, which is comparable to the commonly accepted range of 1.5 to 4.5°C.
11
This range does not include uncertainties in the modelling of radiative forcing, e.g. aerosol forcing uncertainties. A small carbon-cycle climate feedback
is included.
13
The global climate of the 21st century
(a) CO2 emissions (b) CO2 concentrations (c) SO2 emissions
SO2 Emissions (Millions of tonnes of sulphur per year)

1300
Scenarios Scenarios Scenarios
A1B 1200 A1B 150 A1B
A1T A1T A1T
25 A1FI CO2 concentration (ppm) A1FI A1FI
1100
CO2 emissions (Gt C/yr)
A2 A2 A2
B1 1000 B1 B1
B2 B2 B2
20 IS92a IS92a IS92a
900
100
800
15
700
600
10 500 50
400
5 300
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year Year Year
(d) Temperature change (e) Sea level rise
6 1.0 All
A1FI Several models IS92
A1B all SRES Scenarios
A1T envelope A1B
5 A2 A1T All SRES envelope
0.8 A1FI including land-ice
B1 Model ensemble
Temperature change (°C)
A2 uncertainty
B2 all SRES
B1
Sea level rise (metres)
IS92a (TAR method) envelope

B2
4 Several models
All
IS92 all SRES
0.6 envelope
3 Model average
all SRES
envelope
0.4
2
0.2
1
Bars show the
range in 2100
produced by Bars show the
0 several models 0.0 range in 2100
produced by
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 several models
Year Year
Figure 5: The global climate of the 21st century will depend on natural changes and the response of the climate system to human activities.
Climate models project the response of many climate variables – such as increases in global surface temperature and sea level – to various
scenarios of greenhouse gas and other human-related emissions. (a) shows the CO2 emissions of the six illustrative SRES scenarios, which are
summarised in the box on page 18, along with IS92a for comparison purposes with the SAR. (b) shows projected CO2 concentrations. (c) shows
anthropogenic SO2 emissions. Emissions of other gases and other aerosols were included in the model but are not shown in the figure. (d) and (e)
show the projected temperature and sea level responses, respectively. The “several models all SRES envelope” in (d) and (e) shows the
temperature and sea level rise, respectively, for the simple model when tuned to a number of complex models with a range of climate sensitivities.
All SRES envelopes refer to the full range of 35 SRES scenarios. The “model average all SRES envelope” shows the average from these models
for the range of scenarios. Note that the warming and sea level rise from these emissions would continue well beyond 2100. Also note that this
range does not allow for uncertainty relating to ice dynamical changes in the West Antarctic ice sheet, nor does it account for uncertainties in
projecting non-sulphate aerosols and greenhouse gas concentrations. [Based upon (a) Chapter 3, Figure 3.12, (b) Chapter 3, Figure 3.12, (c)
Chapter 5, Figure 5.13, (d) Chapter 9, Figure 9.14, (e) Chapter 11, Figure 11.12, Appendix II]
14
Extreme Events
Table 1 depicts an assessment of confidence in observed ● For some other extreme phenomena, many of which may
changes in extremes of weather and climate during the latter have important impacts on the environment and society,
half of the 20th century (left column) and in projected changes there is currently insufficient information to assess recent
during the 21st century (right column)a. This assessment relies trends, and climate models currently lack the spatial detail
on observational and modelling studies, as well as the physical required to make confident projections. For example, very
plausibility of future projections across all commonly-used small-scale phenomena, such as thunderstorms, tornadoes,
scenarios and is based on expert judgement7. hail and lightning, are not simulated in climate models.
Table 1: Estimates of confidence in observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events.
Confidence in observed changes Changes in Phenomenon Confidence in projected changes

(latter half of the 20th century) (during the 21st century)
Likely7 Higher maximum temperatures and more Very likely7

hot days over nearly all land areas
Very likely7 Higher minimum temperatures, fewer Very likely7

cold days and frost days over nearly
all land areas
Very likely7 Reduced diurnal temperature range over Very likely7

most land areas
Likely7, over many areas Increase of heat index12 over land areas Very likely7, over most areas
Likely7, over many Northern Hemisphere More intense precipitation eventsb Very likely7, over many areas
mid- to high latitude land areas
Likely7, in a few areas Increased summer continental drying Likely7, over most mid-latitude continental
and associated risk of drought interiors. (Lack of consistent projections
in other areas)
Not observed in the few analyses Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind Likely7, over some areas
available intensitiesc
Insufficient data for assessment Increase in tropical cyclone mean and Likely7, over some areas
peak precipitation intensitiesc
a For more details see Chapter 2 (observations) and Chapter 9, 10 (projections).

b For other areas, there are either insufficient data or conflicting analyses.
c
Past and future changes in tropical cyclone location and frequency are uncertain.
12 Heat index: A combination of temperature and humidity that measures effects on human comfort.
15
El Niño Snow and ice
● Confidence in projections of changes in future frequency, ● Northern Hemisphere snow cover and sea-ice extent are
amplitude, and spatial pattern of El Niño events in the projected to decrease further.
tropical Pacific is tempered by some shortcomings in how
● Glaciers and ice caps are projected to continue their
well El Niño is simulated in complex models. Current
widespread retreat during the 21st century.
projections show little change or a small increase in
amplitude for El Niño events over the next 100 years. ● The Antarctic ice sheet is likely7 to gain mass because of
greater precipitation, while the Greenland ice sheet is
● Even with little or no change in El Niño amplitude, likely7 to lose mass because the increase in runoff will
global warming is likely7 to lead to greater extremes of exceed the precipitation increase.
drying and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of ● Concerns have been expressed about the stability of the
droughts and floods that occur with El Niño events in West Antarctic ice sheet because it is grounded below sea
many different regions. level. However, loss of grounded ice leading to substantial
sea level rise from this source is now widely agreed to be
Monsoons very unlikely7 during the 21st century, although its
dynamics are still inadequately understood, especially for
● It is likely7 that warming associated with increasing
projections on longer time-scales.
greenhouse gas concentrations will cause an increase of
Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability. Changes
in monsoon mean duration and strength depend on the Sea level
details of the emission scenario. The confidence in such ● Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88
projections is also limited by how well the climate metres between 1990 and 2100, for the full range of
models simulate the detailed seasonal evolution of the SRES scenarios. This is due primarily to thermal
monsoons. expansion and loss of mass from glaciers and ice caps
(Figure 5e). The range of sea level rise presented in the
Thermohaline circulation SAR was 0.13 to 0.94 metres based on the IS92
scenarios. Despite the higher temperature change
● Most models show weakening of the ocean thermohaline
projections in this assessment, the sea level projections
circulation which leads to a reduction of the heat
are slightly lower, primarily due to the use of improved
transport into high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
models, which give a smaller contribution from glaciers
However, even in models where the thermohaline
and ice sheets.
circulation weakens, there is still a warming over Europe
due to increased greenhouse gases. The current
projections using climate models do not exhibit a
complete shut-down of the thermohaline circulation by
2100. Beyond 2100, the thermohaline circulation could
completely, and possibly irreversibly, shut-down in either
hemisphere if the change in radiative forcing is large
enough and applied long enough.
16
Anthropogenic climate change will Further action is required to
persist for many centuries. address remaining gaps in
● Emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (i.e., CO2, N2O, information and understanding.
PFCs, SF6) have a lasting effect on atmospheric Further research is required to improve the ability to detect,
composition, radiative forcing and climate. For example, attribute and understand climate change, to reduce uncertainties
several centuries after CO2 emissions occur, about a quarter and to project future climate changes. In particular, there is a
of the increase in CO2 concentration caused by these need for additional systematic and sustained observations,
emissions is still present in the atmosphere. modelling and process studies. A serious concern is the decline
● After greenhouse gas concentrations have stabilised, global of observational networks. The following are high priority
average surface temperatures would rise at a rate of only a areas for action.
few tenths of a degree per century rather than several ● Systematic observations and reconstructions:
degrees per century as projected for the 21st century
– Reverse the decline of observational networks in many
without stabilisation. The lower the level at which
parts of the world.
concentrations are stabilised, the smaller the total
temperature change. – Sustain and expand the observational foundation for
climate studies by providing accurate, long-term,
● Global mean surface temperature increases and rising sea
consistent data including implementation of a strategy for
level from thermal expansion of the ocean are projected to
integrated global observations.
continue for hundreds of years after stabilisation of
greenhouse gas concentrations (even at present levels), – Enhance the development of reconstructions of past
owing to the long timescales on which the deep ocean climate periods.
adjusts to climate change.
– Improve the observations of the spatial distribution of
● Ice sheets will continue to react to climate warming and greenhouse gases and aerosols.
contribute to sea level rise for thousands of years after
● Modelling and process studies:
climate has been stabilised. Climate models indicate that
the local warming over Greenland is likely7 to be one to – Improve understanding of the mechanisms and factors
three times the global average. Ice sheet models project that leading to changes in radiative forcing.
a local warming of larger than 3°C, if sustained for – Understand and characterise the important unresolved
millennia, would lead to virtually a complete melting of the processes and feedbacks, both physical and biogeo-
Greenland ice sheet with a resulting sea level rise of about chemical, in the climate system.
7 metres. A local warming of 5.5°C, if sustained for 1,000
years, would be likely7 to result in a contribution from – Improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate
Greenland of about 3 metres to sea level rise. projections and scenarios, including long-term ensemble
simulations using complex models.
● Current ice dynamic models suggest that the West Antarctic
ice sheet could contribute up to 3 metres to sea level rise – Improve the integrated hierarchy of global and regional
over the next 1,000 years, but such results are strongly climate models with a focus on the simulation of climate
dependent on model assumptions regarding climate change variability, regional climate changes and extreme events.
scenarios, ice dynamics and other factors. – Link more effectively models of the physical climate and
the biogeochemical system, and in turn improve coupling
with descriptions of human activities.
17
Cutting across these foci are crucial needs associated with
strengthening international co-operation and co-ordination in
order to better utilise scientific, computational and observational
resources. This should also promote the free exchange of data
among scientists. A special need is to increase the observational
and research capacities in many regions, particularly in
developing countries. Finally, as is the goal of this assessment,
there is a continuing imperative to communicate research
advances in terms that are relevant to decision making.
The Emissions Scenarios of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

(SRES)
A1. The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that
peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major
underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a
substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that
describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their
technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B) (where
balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement
rates apply to all energy supply and end use technologies).
A2. The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and
preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing
population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change
more fragmented and slower than other storylines.
B1. The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population, that peaks in mid-
century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and
information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies.
The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but
without additional climate initiatives.
B2. The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social
and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population, at a rate lower than A2,
intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1
storylines. While the scenario is also oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and
regional levels.
An illustrative scenario was chosen for each of the six scenario groups A1B, A1FI, A1T, A2, B1 and B2. All should be
considered equally sound.
The SRES scenarios do not include additional climate initiatives, which means that no scenarios are included that explicitly
assume implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or the emissions targets of the
Kyoto Protocol.
18
Source Information: Summary for
Policymakers
This appendix provides the cross-reference of the topics in the
Summary for Policymakers (page and bullet point topic) to the
sections of the chapters of the full report that contain
expanded information about the topic.
An increasing body of observations gives a Emissions of greenhouse gases and

collective picture of a warming world and aerosols due to human activities continue
other changes in the climate system. to alter the atmosphere in ways that are
e x p e c t e d t o a ff e c t t h e c l i m a t e s y s t e m .
SPM Page Cross-Reference: SPM Topic – Chapter Section
2 The global average surface temperature has
increased over the 20th century by about 0.6°C. 5 Chapeau: “Changes in climate occur …”
● Chapter 2.2.2 ● Chapter 2.2.2 ● Chapter 2.3 Chapter 1, Chapter 3.1, Chapter 4.1, Chapter 5.1,
● Chapter 2.2.2 Chapter 6.1, 6.2, 6.9, 6.11 and 6.13
4 Temperatures have risen during the past four 7 Concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases
decades in the lowest 8 kilometres of the and their radiative forcing have continued to
atmosphere. ● Chapter 2.2.3 and 2.2.4 increase as a result of human activities.
● Chapter 2.2.3 and 2.2.4 ● Chapter 2.2.3, 2.2.4 Carbon dioxide: ● Chapter 3.3.1, 3.3.2, 3.3.3
and Chapter 12.3.2 and 3.5.1 ● Chapter 3.5.1
4 Snow cover and ice extent have decreased. All ● Chapter 3.2.2, 3.2.3, 3.5.1 and Table 3.1
three bullet points: Chapter 2.2.5 and 2.2.6 ● Chapter 3.5.1 and 3.5.2
4 Global average sea level has risen and ocean Methane: ● Chapter 4.2.1
heat content has increased. ● Chapter 11.3.2 Nitrous oxide: ● Chapter 4.2.1
● Chapter 2.2.2 and Chapter 11.2.1 Halocarbons: ● Chapter 4.2.2
4−5 Changes have also occurred in other important Radiative forcing of well-mixed gases:
aspects of climate. ● Chapter 2.5.2 ● Chapter 4.2.1 and Chapter 6.3
● Chapter 2.7.2 ● Chapter 2.2.2 and 2.5.5
Stratospheric ozone: ● Chapter 4.2.2 and
● Chapter 2.7.2 ● Chapter 2.6.2 and 2.6.3
Chapter 6.4
● Chapter 2.7.3 ● Chapter 2.7.3
Tropospheric ozone: ● Chapter 4.2.4 and
5 Some important aspects of climate appear not to
Chapter 6.5
have changed. ● Chapter 2.2.2 ● Chapter 2.2.5
9 Anthropogenic aerosols are short-lived and
mostly produce negative radiative forcing.
● Chapter 5.2 and 5.5.4 ● Chapter 5.1, 5.2 and
Chapter 6.7 ● Chapter 5.3.2, 5.4.3 and Chapter 6.8
9 Natural factors have made small contributions to
radiative forcing over the past century.
● Chapter 6.11 and 6.15.1 ● Chapter 6.9 and 6.15.1
● Chapter 6.15.1
19
Confidence in the ability of models to Global average temperature and sea level
project future climate has increased. are projected to rise under all IPCC SRES
scenarios.
9 Chapeau: “Complex physically-based …” SPM Page Cross-Reference: SPM Topic – Chapter Section
Chapter 8.3.2, 8.5.1, 8.6.1, 8.10.3 and Chapter 12.3.2 13 Temperature ● Chapter 9.3.3 ● Chapter 9.3.3
9 ● Chapter 7.2.1, 7.5.2 and 7.6.1 ● Chapter 8.4.2 ● Chapter 2.2.2, 2.3.2 and 2.4 ● Chapter 9.3.3
● Chapter 8.6.3 and Chapter 12.3.2 and Chapter 10.3.2 ● Chapter 8.6.1, Chapter
● Chapter 8.5.5, 8.7.1 and 8.7.5 12.4.3, Chapter 13.5.1 and 13.5.2
● Chapter 10.3.2 and Box 10.1 ● Chapter 9.3.2
13 Precipitation ● Chapter 9.3.1, 9.3.6, Chapter
There is new and stronger evidence that 10.3.2 and Box 10.1
most of the warming observed over the last
15 Extreme events Table 1: Chapter 2.1, 2.2, 2.5,
50 years is attributable to human activities.
2.7.2, 2.7.3, Chapter 9.3.6 and Chapter 10.3.2
SPM Page Cross-Reference: SPM Topic – Chapter Section ● Chapter 2.7.3 and Chapter 9.3.6
10 Chapeau: “The SAR concluded: The balance of 16 El Niño ● Chapter 9.3.5 ● Chapter 9.3.5
evidence suggests …” Chapter 12.1.2 and 12.6 16 Monsoons ● Chapter 9.3.5
10 ● Chapter 12.2.2, 12.4.3 and 12.6 16 Thermohaline circulation ● Chapter 9.3.4
● Chapter 12.4.1, 12.4.2, 12.4.3 and 12.6
16 Snow and ice ● Chapter 9.3.2 ● Chapter 11.5.1
● Chapter 12.2.3, 12.4.1, 12.4.2, 12.4.3 and 12.6
● Chapter 12.4.3 and 12.6. ● Chapter 12.6
16 Sea level ● Chapter 11.5.1
● Chapter 12.4.3 ● Chapter 12.4.3 and 12.6
10 “In the light of new evidence and taking into
account the …” Chapter 12.4 and 12.6 Anthropogenic climate change will persist
10 “Furthermore, it is very likely that the 20th for many centuries.
century warming has …” Chapter 11.4
17 ● Chapter 3.2.3, Chapter 4.4 and Chapter 6.15
Human influences will continue to change ● Chapter 9.3.3 and 9.3.4 ● Chapter 11.5.4
atmospheric composition throughout the ● Chapter 11.5.4 ● Chapter 11.5.4
2 1 s t c e n t u r y.
SPM Page Cross-Reference: SPM Topic – Chapter Section Further work is required to address
12 Chapeau: “Models have been used to make remaining gaps in information and
projections …” Chapter 4.4.5 and Appendix II understanding.
12 Greenhouse gases ● Chapter 3.7.3 and Appendix II SPM Page Cross-Reference: SPM Topic – Chapter Section
● Chapter 3.7.1, 3.7.2, 3.7.3 and Appendix II
● Chapter 3.7.3 and Appendix II
17 – 18 All bullet points: Chapter 14, Executive Summary
● Chapter 4.4.5, 4.5, 4.6 and Appendix II
● Chapter 3.7.3
12 Aerosols ● Chapter 5.5.2, 5.5.3 and Appendix II
12 Radiative forcing over the 21st century
20
Te c h n i c a l S u m m a r y
A r e p o r t a c c e p t e d by Wo r k i n g G ro u p I o f t h e I P C C
bu t n o t a p p rov e d i n d e t a i l
“Acceptance” of IPCC Reports at a Session of the Working Group or Panel signifies that the
material has not been subject to line by line discussion and agreement, but nevertheless
presents a comprehensive, objective and balanced view of the subject matter.
C o - o rd i n a t i n g L e a d Au t h o rs
D.L. Albritton (USA), L.G. Meira Filho (Brazil)
L e a d Au t h o rs
U. Cubasch (Germany), X. Dai (China), Y. Ding (China), D.J. Griggs (UK), B. Hewitson (South Africa), J.T. Houghton (UK),
I. Isaksen (Norway), T. Karl (USA), M. McFarland (USA), V.P. Meleshko (Russia), J.F.B. Mitchell (UK), M. Noguer (UK),
B.S. Nyenzi (Tanzania), M. Oppenheimer (USA), J.E. Penner (USA), S. Pollonais (Trinidad and Tobago),
T. Stocker (Switzerland), K.E. Trenberth (USA)
C o n t r i bu t i n g Au t h o rs
M.R. Allen, (UK), A.P.M. Baede (Netherlands), J.A. Church (Australia), D.H. Ehhalt (Germany), C.K. Folland (UK),
F. Giorgi (Italy), J.M. Gregory (UK), J.M. Haywood (UK), J.I. House (Germany), M. Hulme (UK), V.J. Jaramillo (Mexico),
A. Jayaraman (India), C.A. Johnson (UK), S. Joussaume (France), D.J. Karoly (Australia), H. Kheshgi (USA),
C. Le Quéré (France), L.J. Mata (Germany), B.J. McAvaney (Australia), L.O. Mearns (USA), G.A. Meehl (USA),
B. Moore III (USA), R.K. Mugara (Zambia), M. Prather (USA), C. Prentice (Germany), V. Ramaswamy (USA),
S.C.B. Raper (UK), M.J. Salinger (New Zealand), R. Scholes (S. Africa), S. Solomon (USA), R. Stouffer (USA),
M-X. Wang (China), R.T. Watson (USA), K-S. Yap (Malaysia)
R ev i ew E d i t o rs
F. Joos (Switzerland), A. Ramirez-Rojas (Venzuela), J.M.R. Stone (Canada), J. Zillman (Australia)
21
Te c h n i c a l S u m m a r y o f t h e Wo r k i n g G ro u p I R e p o r t
A . I n t ro d u c t i o n system, a reconstruction of past changes and trends, an

understanding of the processes involved in those changes, and
the incorporation of this knowledge into models that can attribute
A . 1 T h e I P C C a n d i t s Wo r k i n g G ro u p s the causes of changes and that can provide simulation of natural
and human-induced future changes in the climate system.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was
established by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)
A . 2 T h e F i rs t a n d S e c o n d A s s e s s m e n t
and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in
R e p o r t s o f Wo r k i n g G ro u p I
1988. The aim was, and remains, to provide an assessment of
the understanding of all aspects of climate change1, including In the First Assessment Report in 1990, Working Group I broadly
how human activities can cause such changes and can be described the status of the understanding of the climate system
impacted by them. It had become widely recognised that and climate change that had been gained over the preceding
human-influenced emissions of greenhouse gases have the decades of research. Several major points were emphasised. The
potential to alter the climate system (see Box 1), with possible greenhouse effect is a natural feature of the planet, and its
deleterious or beneficial effects. It was also recognised that fundamental physics is well understood. The atmospheric
addressing such global issues required organisation on a global abundances of greenhouse gases were increasing, due largely to
scale, including assessment of the understanding of the issue human activities. Continued future growth in greenhouse gas
by the worldwide expert communities. emissions was predicted to lead to significant increases in the
average surface temperature of the planet, increases that would
At its first session, the IPCC was organised into three Working
exceed the natural variation of the past several millennia and that
Groups. The current remits of the Working Groups are for
could be reversed only slowly. The past century had, at that time,
Working Group I to address the scientific aspects of the
seen a surface warming of nearly 0.5°C, which was broadly
climate system and climate change, Working Group II to
consistent with that predicted by climate models for the
address the impacts of and adaptations to climate change, and
greenhouse gas increases, but was also comparable to what was
Working Group III to address the options for the mitigation of
then known about natural variation. Lastly, it was pointed out that
climate change. The IPCC provided its first major assessment
the current level of understanding at that time and the existing
report in 1990 and its second major assessment report in 1996.
capabilities of climate models limited the prediction of changes
The IPCC reports are (i) up-to-date descriptions of the knowns in the climate of specific regions.
and unknowns of the climate system and related factors, (ii)
Based on the results of additional research and Special Reports
based on the knowledge of the international expert
produced in the interim, IPCC Working Group I assessed the
communities, (iii) produced by an open and peer-reviewed
new state of understanding in its Second Assessment Report
professional process, and (iv) based upon scientific publications
(SAR2) in 1996. The report underscored that greenhouse gas
whose findings are summarised in terms useful to decision
abundances continued to increase in the atmosphere and that
makers. While the assessed information is policy relevant, the
very substantial cuts in emissions would be required for stabili-
IPCC does not establish or advocate public policy.
sation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere
The scope of the assessments of Working Group I includes (which is the ultimate goal of Article 2 of the Framework
observations of the current changes and trends in the climate Convention on Climate Change). Further, the general increase in
1 Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This usage
differs from that in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over
comparable time periods. For a definition of scientific and technical terms: see the Glossary in Appendix I.
2 The IPCC Second Assessment Report is referred to in this Technical Summary as the SAR.
22
global temperature continued, with recent years being the A . 3 T h e T h i rd A s s e s s m e n t R e p o r t : T h i s
warmest since at least 1860. The ability of climate models to Te c h n i c a l S u m m a r y
simulate observed events and trends had improved, particularly
The third major assessment report of IPCC Working Group I
with the inclusion of sulphate aerosols and stratospheric ozone as
builds upon these past assessments and incorporates the results
radiative forcing agents in climate models. Utilising this
of the past five years of climate research. This Technical
simulative capability to compare to the observed patterns of
Summary is based on the underlying information of the
regional temperature changes, the report concluded that the
chapters, which is cross-referenced in the Source Notes in the
ability to quantify the human influence on global climate was
Appendix. This Summary aims to describe the major features
limited. The limitations arose because the expected signal was
(see Figure 1) of the understanding of the climate system and
still emerging from the noise of natural variability and because of
climate change at the outset of the 21st century. Specifically:
uncertainties in other key factors. Nevertheless, the report also
concluded that “the balance of evidence suggests a discernible ● What does the observational record show with regard to
human influence on global climate”. Lastly, based on a range of past climate changes, both globally and regionally and both
scenarios of future greenhouse gas abundances, a set of on the average and in the extremes? (Section B)
responses of the climate system was simulated.
What changes How well are the past and present What changes
have occurred? climates understood? could lie ahead?
Observations: Simulations:
• temperatures • natural variation
• precipitation • forcing agents
• snow / ice cover • global climate
• sea level • regional climate
• circulation • high impact events
• extremes • stabilisation
Observations vis-à-vis Simulations
Palaeo & Instrumental

Timeline: The Present The Future
Periods
This Summary: Sections B + C Sections D + E Sections F + G
Figure 1: Key questions about the climate system and its relation to humankind. This Technical Summary, which is based on the underlying
information in the chapters, is a status report on the answers, presented in the structure indicated.
23
● How quantitative is the understanding of the agents that Box 1: What drives changes in climate?
cause climate to change, including both those that are
The Earth absorbs radiation from the Sun, mainly at the surface.
natural (e.g., solar variation) and human-related (e.g.,
This energy is then redistributed by the atmospheric and oceanic
greenhouse gases) phenomena? (Section C)
circulations and radiated back to space at longer (infrared)
● What is the current ability to simulate the responses of the wavelengths. For the annual mean and for the Earth as a whole, the
climate system to these forcing agents? In particular, how incoming solar radiation energy is balanced approximately by the
well are key physical and biogeochemical processes outgoing terrestrial radiation. Any factor that alters the radiation
described by present global climate models? (Section D) received from the Sun or lost to space, or that alters the redistri-
bution of energy within the atmosphere and between the atmosphere,
● Based on today’s observational data and today’s climate
land, and ocean, can affect climate. A change in the net radiative
predictive capabilities, what does the comparison show
energy available to the global Earth-atmosphere system is termed
regarding a human influence on today’s climate? (Section E)
here, and in previous IPCC reports, a radiative forcing. Positive
● Further, using current predictive tools, what could the radiative forcings tend to warm the Earth’s surface and lower
possible climate future be? Namely, for a wide spectrum of atmosphere. Negative radiative forcings tend to cool them.
projections for several climate-forcing agents, what does
Increases in the concentrations of greenhouse gases will reduce the
current understanding project for global temperatures,
efficiency with which the Earth’s surface radiates to space. More of
regional patterns of precipitation, sea levels, and changes in
the outgoing terrestrial radiation from the surface is absorbed by
extremes? (Section F)
the atmosphere and re-emitted at higher altitudes and lower temper-
atures. This results in a positive radiative forcing that tends to
Finally, what are the most urgent research activities that
warm the lower atmosphere and surface. Because less heat escapes
need to be addressed to improve our understanding of the
to space, this is the enhanced greenhouse effect – an enhancement
climate system and to reduce our uncertainty regarding
of an effect that has operated in the Earth’s atmosphere for billions
future climate change?
of years due to the presence of naturally occurring greenhouse
The Third Assessment Report of IPCC Working Group I is the gases: water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane and nitrous
product of hundreds of scientists from the developed and oxide. The amount of radiative forcing depends on the size of the
developing world who contributed to its preparation and increase in concentration of each greenhouse gas, the radiative
review. What follows is a summary of their understanding of properties of the gases involved, and the concentrations of other
the climate system. greenhouse gases already present in the atmosphere. Further, many
greenhouse gases reside in the atmosphere for centuries after being
emitted, thereby introducing a long-term commitment to positive
radiative forcing.
Anthropogenic aerosols (microscopic airborne particles or droplets)
in the troposphere, such as those derived from fossil fuel and
biomass burning, can reflect solar radiation, which leads to a
cooling tendency in the climate system. Because it can absorb solar
radiation, black carbon (soot) aerosol tends to warm the climate
system. In addition, changes in aerosol concentrations can alter
cloud amount and cloud reflectivity through their effect on cloud
properties and lifetimes. In most cases, tropospheric aerosols tend
to produce a negative radiative forcing and a cooler climate. They
have a much shorter lifetime (days to weeks) than most greenhouse
24
gases (decades to centuries), and, as a result, their concentrations B. The Observed Changes in the
respond much more quickly to changes in emissions. Climate System
Volcanic activity can inject large amounts of sulphur-containing
Is the Earth’s climate changing? The answer is unequivocally
gases (primarily sulphur dioxide) into the stratosphere, which are
“Yes”. A suite of observations supports this conclusion and
transformed into sulphate aerosols. Individual eruptions can produce
provides insight about the rapidity of those changes. These
a large, but transitory, negative radiative forcing, tending to cool the
data are also the bedrock upon which to construct the answer
Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere over periods of a few years.
to the more difficult question: “Why is it changing?”, which is
The Sun’s output of energy varies by small amounts (0.1%) over addressed in later Sections.
an 11-year cycle and, in addition, variations over longer periods
This Section provides an updated summary of the observations
may occur. On time-scales of tens to thousands of years, slow
that delineate how the climate system has changed in the past.
variations in the Earth’s orbit, which are well understood, have led
Many of the variables of the climate system have been
to changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of solar
measured directly, i.e., the “instrumental record”. For example,
radiation. These changes have played an important part in
widespread direct measurements of surface temperature began
controlling the variations of climate in the distant past, such as the
around the middle of the 19th century. Near global
glacial and inter-glacial cycles.
observations of other surface “weather” variables, such as
When radiative forcing changes, the climate system responds on precipitation and winds, have been made for about a hundred
various time-scales. The longest of these are due to the large heat years. Sea level measurements have been made for over 100
capacity of the deep ocean and dynamic adjustment of the ice years in some places, but the network of tide gauges with long
sheets. This means that the transient response to a change (either records provides only limited global coverage. Upper air
positive or negative) may last for thousands of years. Any changes observations have been made systematically only since the late
in the radiative balance of the Earth, including those due to an 1940s. There are also long records of surface oceanic
increase in greenhouse gases or in aerosols, will alter the global observations made from ships since the mid-19th century and
hydrological cycle and atmospheric and oceanic circulation, by dedicated buoys since about the late 1970s. Sub-surface
thereby affecting weather patterns and regional temperatures and oceanic temperature measurements with near global coverage
precipitation. are now available from the late 1940s. Since the late 1970s,
other data from Earth-observation satellites have been used to
Any human-induced changes in climate will be embedded in a
provide a wide range of global observations of various
background of natural climatic variations that occur on a whole
components of the climate system. In addition, a growing set
range of time- and space-scales. Climate variability can occur as a
of palaeoclimatic data, e.g., from trees, corals, sediments, and
result of natural changes in the forcing of the climate system, for
ice, are giving information about the Earth’s climate of
example variations in the strength of the incoming solar radiation
centuries and millennia before the present.
and changes in the concentrations of aerosols arising from volcanic
eruptions. Natural climate variations can also occur in the absence This Section places particular emphasis on current knowledge of
of a change in external forcing, as a result of complex interactions past changes in key climate variables: temperature, precipitation
between components of the climate system, such as the coupling and atmospheric moisture, snow cover, extent of land and sea
between the atmosphere and ocean. The El Niño-Southern ice, sea level, patterns in atmospheric and oceanic circulation,
Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is an example of such natural extreme weather and climate events, and overall features of the
“internal” variability on interannual time-scales. To distinguish climate variability. The concluding part of this Section compares
anthropogenic climate changes from natural variations, it is the observed trends in these various climate indicators to see if a
necessary to identify the anthropogenic “signal” against the collective picture emerges. The degree of this internal
background “noise” of natural climate variability. consistency is a critical factor in assessing the level of confidence
in the current understanding of the climate system.
25
B . 1 O b s e r v e d C h a n g e s i n Te m p e r a t u r e 1910 to 1945 and since 1976. The rate of increase of temperature
for both periods is about 0.15°C/decade. Recent warming has
Te m p e r a t u r e s i n t h e i n s t r u m e n t a l r e c o rd fo r
been greater over land compared to oceans; the increase in sea
land and oceans
surface temperature over the period 1950 to 1993 is about half
The global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6
that of the mean land-surface air temperature. The high global
± 0.2°C3 since the late 19th century. It is very likely that the
temperature associated with the 1997 to 1998 El Niño event
1990s was the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year in
stands out as an extreme event, even taking into account the
the instrumental record since 1861 (see Figure 2). The main
recent rate of warming.
cause of the increased estimate of global warming of 0.15°C
since the SAR is related to the record warmth of the additional The regional patterns of the warming that occurred in the early
six years (1995 to 2000) of data. A secondary reason is related part of the 20th century were different than those that occurred
to improved methods of estimating change. The current, in the latter part. Figure 3 shows the regional patterns of the
slightly larger uncertainty range (±0.2°C, 95% confidence warming that have occurred over the full 20th century, as well
interval) is also more objectively based. Further, the scientific as for three component time periods. The most recent period of
basis for confidence in the estimates of the increase in global warming (1976 to 1999) has been almost global, but the largest
increases in temperature have
occurred over the mid- and high
0.8
latitudes of the continents in the
GLOBAL Northern Hemisphere. Year-round
cooling is evident in the north-

0.4
western North Atlantic and the
central North Pacific Oceans, but
the North Atlantic cooling trend
0.0 has recently reversed. The recent
regional patterns of temperature
change have been shown to be
-0.4 related, in part, to various phases
of atmospheric-oceanic
Data from thermometers. oscillations, such as the North
Atlantic-Arctic Oscillation and
-0.8
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 possibly the Pacific Decadal
Year Oscillation. Therefore, regional
temperature trends over a few
Figure 2: Combined annual land-surface air and sea surface temperature anomalies (°C) 1861 to 2000,
decades can be strongly influenced
relative to 1961 to 1990. Two standard error uncertainties are shown as bars on the annual number.
by regional variability in the
[Based on Figure 2.7c]
climate system and can depart
temperature since the late 19th century has been strengthened appreciably from a global average. The 1910 to 1945 warming
since the SAR. This is due to the improvements derived from was initially concentrated in the North Atlantic. By contrast, the
several new studies. These include an independent test of the period 1946 to 1975 showed significant cooling in the North
corrections used for time-dependent biases in the sea surface Atlantic, as well as much of the Northern Hemisphere, and
temperature data and new analyses of the effect of urban “heat warming in much of the Southern Hemisphere.
island” influences on global land-temperature trends. As
New analyses indicate that global ocean heat content has
indicated in Figure 2, most of the increase in global temperature
increased significantly since the late 1950s. More than half
since the late 19th century has occurred in two distinct periods:
of the increase in heat content has occurred in the upper 300 m
3
Generally, temperature trends are rounded to the nearest 0.05°C per unit of time, the periods often being limited by data availability.
26
(a) Annual temperature trends, 1901 to 2000 (b) Annual temperature trends, 1910 to 1945
(c) Annual temperature trends, 1946 to 1975 (d) Annual temperature trends, 1976 to 2000
−1 −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Trend (°C/decade)
Figure 3: Annual temperature trends for the periods 1901 to 1999, 1910 to 1945, 1946 to 1975 and 1976 to 1999 respectively. Trends are represented by
the area of the circle with red representing increases, blue representing decreases, and green little or no change. Trends were calculated from annually
averaged gridded anomalies with the requirement that the calculation of annual anomalies include a minimum of 10 months of data. For the period 1901
to 1999, trends were calculated only for those grid boxes containing annual anomalies in at least 66 of the 100 years. The minimum number of years
required for the shorter time periods (1910 to 1945, 1946 to 1975, and 1976 to 1999) was 24, 20, and 16 years respectively. [Based on Figure 2.9]
of the ocean, equivalent to a rate of temperature increase in Te m p e r a t u r e s a b ov e t h e s u r f a c e l ay e r f ro m

this layer of about 0.04°C/decade. s a t e l l i t e a n d w e a t h e r b a l l o o n r e c o rd s
Surface, balloon and satellite temperature measurements show
New analyses of daily maximum and minimum land-surface
that the troposphere and Earth’s surface have warmed and
temperatures for 1950 to 1993 continue to show that this
that the stratosphere has cooled. Over the shorter time period
measure of diurnal temperature range is decreasing very
for which there have been both satellite and weather balloon
widely, although not everywhere. On average, minimum
data (since 1979), the balloon and satellite records show
temperatures are increasing at about twice the rate of
significantly less lower-tropospheric warming than observed
maximum temperatures (0.2 versus 0.1°C/decade).
at the surface. Analyses of temperature trends since 1958 for
the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere and at the surface are in
27
good agreement, as shown in Figure 4a, with a warming of a)
about 0.1°C per decade. However, since the beginning of the
0.5
satellite record in 1979, the temperature data from both
Anomaly (°C)
satellites and weather balloons show a warming in the global 0.0
middle-to-lower troposphere at a rate of approximately 0.05 ±
0.10°C per decade. The global average surface temperature has −0.5 Balloons
Satellites
increased significantly by 0.15 ± 0.05°C/decade. The Surface
−1.0
difference in the warming rates is statistically significant. By 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
contrast, during the period 1958 to 1978, surface temperature
trends were near zero, while trends for the lowest 8 km of the b)
atmosphere were near 0.2°C/decade. About half of the
2
observed difference in warming since 1979 is likely4 to be due
Anomaly (°C)
to the combination of the differences in spatial coverage of the
0
surface and tropospheric observations and the physical effects
of the sequence of volcanic eruptions and a substantial El −2
Satellites
Agung El Chichon Pinatubo
Niño (see Box 4 for a general description of ENSO) that Balloons
occurred within this period. The remaining difference is very −4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
likely real and not an observing bias. It arises primarily due to Year
differences in the rate of temperature change over the tropical

Figure 4: (a) Time-series of seasonal temperature anomalies of the
and sub-tropical regions, which were faster in the lowest 8 km
troposphere based on balloons and satellites in addition to the surface.
of the atmosphere before about 1979, but which have been
(b) Time-series of seasonal temperature anomalies of the lower strato-
slower since then. There are no significant differences in sphere from balloons and satellites. [Based on Figure 2.12]
warming rates over mid-latitude continental regions in the
Northern Hemisphere. In the upper troposphere, no significant
global temperature trends have been detected since the early Figure 5. The data show a relatively warm period associated
1960s. In the stratosphere, as shown in Figure 4b, both with the 11th to 14th centuries and a relatively cool period
satellites and balloons show substantial cooling, punctuated by associated with the 15th to 19th centuries in the Northern
sharp warming episodes of one to two years long that are due Hemisphere. However, evidence does not support these
to volcanic eruptions. “Medieval Warm Period” and “Little Ice Age” periods, respec-
tively, as being globally synchronous. As Figure 5 indicates, the
Surface temperatures during the pre-
i n s t r u m e n t a l p e r i o d f ro m t h e p rox y r e c o rd rate and duration of warming of the Northern Hemisphere in
It is likely that the rate and duration of the warming of the 20th the 20th century appears to have been unprecedented during the
century is larger than any other time during the last 1,000 millennium, and it cannot simply be considered as a recovery
years. The 1990s are likely to have been the warmest decade of from the “Little Ice Age” of the 15th to 19th centuries. These
the millennium in the Northern Hemisphere, and 1998 is likely analyses are complemented by sensitivity analysis of the spatial
to have been the warmest year. There has been a considerable representativeness of available palaeoclimatic data, indicating
advance in understanding of temperature change that occurred that the warmth of the recent decade is outside the 95%
over the last millennium, especially from the synthesis of confidence interval of temperature uncertainty, even during the
individual temperature reconstructions. This new detailed warmest periods of the last millennium. Moreover, several
temperature record for the Northern Hemisphere is shown in different analyses have now been completed, each suggesting
4
In this Technical Summary and in the Summary for Policymakers, the following words have been used to indicate approximate judgmental estimates of
confidence: virtually certain (greater than 99% chance that a result is true); very likely (90−99% chance); likely (66−90% chance);
medium likelihood (33−66% chance); unlikely (10−33% chance); very unlikely (1−10% chance); exceptionally unlikely (less than 1% chance).
The reader is referred to individual chapters for more details.
28
1.0
Instrumental data (AD 1902 to 1999)
Reconstruction (AD 1000 to 1980)
Reconstruction (40 year smoothed)
1998 instrumental value
Northern Hemisphere anomaly (°C)
0.5
relative to 1961 to 1990
0.0
−0.5
−1.0
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year
Figure 5: Millennial Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction (blue – tree rings, corals, ice cores, and historical records) and instru-
mental data (red) from AD 1000 to 1999. Smoother version of NH series (black), and two standard error limits (gray shaded) are shown. [Based on
Figure 2.20]
that the Northern Hemisphere temperatures of the past decade It is likely that large rapid decadal temperature changes occurred
have been warmer than any other time in the past six to ten during the last glacial and its deglaciation (between about
centuries. This is the time-span over which temperatures with 100,000 and 10,000 years ago), particularly in high latitudes of
annual resolution can be calculated using hemispheric-wide the Northern Hemisphere. In a few places during the
tree-ring, ice-cores, corals, and and other annually-resolved deglaciation, local increases in temperature of 5 to 10°C are
proxy data. Because less data are available, less is known about likely to have occurred over periods as short as a few decades.
annual averages prior to 1,000 years before the present and for During the last 10,000 years, there is emerging evidence of
conditions prevailing in most of the Southern Hemisphere prior significant rapid regional temperature changes, which are part of
to 1861. the natural variability of climate.
29
B.2 Observed Changes in Precipitation and B . 3 O b s e r v e d C h a n g e s i n S n ow C ov e r a n d
Atmospheric Moisture Land- and Sea-Ice Extent
Since the time of the SAR, annual land precipitation has Decreasing snow cover and land-ice extent continue to be
continued to increase in the middle and high latitudes of the positively correlated with increasing land-surface temper-
Northern Hemisphere (very likely to be 0.5 to 1%/decade), except atures. Satellite data show that there are very likely to have
over Eastern Asia. Over the sub-tropics (10°N to 30°N), land- been decreases of about 10% in the extent of snow cover
surface rainfall has decreased on average (likely to be about since the late 1960s. There is a highly significant correlation
0.3%/decade), although this has shown signs of recovery in recent between increases in Northern Hemisphere land temper-
years. Tropical land-surface precipitation measurements indicate atures and the decreases. There is now ample evidence to
that precipitation likely has increased by about 0.2 to 0.3%/ support a major retreat of alpine and continental glaciers in
decade over the 20th century, but increases are not evident over response to 20th century warming. In a few maritime
the past few decades and the amount of tropical land (versus regions, increases in precipitation due to regional
ocean) area for the latitudes 10°N to 10°S is relatively small. atmospheric circulation changes have overshadowed
Nonetheless, direct measurements of precipitation and model increases in temperature in the past two decades, and
reanalyses of inferred precipitation indicate that rainfall has also glaciers have re-advanced. Over the past 100 to 150 years,
increased over large parts of the tropical oceans. Where and when ground-based observations show that there is very likely to
available, changes in annual streamflow often relate well to have been a reduction of about two weeks in the annual
changes in total precipitation. The increases in precipitation over duration of lake and river ice in the mid- to high latitudes of
Northern Hemisphere mid- and high latitude land areas have a the Northern Hemisphere.
strong correlation to long-term increases in total cloud amount. In
Northern Hemisphere sea-ice amounts are decreasing, but
contrast to the Northern Hemisphere, no comparable systematic
no significant trends in Antarctic sea-ice extent are
changes in precipitation have been detected in broad latitudinal
apparent. A retreat of sea-ice extent in the Arctic spring and
averages over the Southern Hemisphere.
summer of 10 to 15% since the 1950s is consistent with an
It is likely that total atmospheric water vapour has increased increase in spring temperatures and, to a lesser extent,
several per cent per decade over many regions of the Northern summer temperatures in the high latitudes. There is little
Hemisphere. Changes in water vapour over approximately the indication of reduced Arctic sea-ice extent during winter
past 25 years have been analysed for selected regions using in situ when temperatures have increased in the surrounding region.
surface observations, as well as lower-tropospheric measurements By contrast, there is no readily apparent relationship
from satellites and weather balloons. A pattern of overall surface between decadal changes of Antarctic temperatures and
and lower-tropospheric water vapour increases over the past few sea-ice extent since 1973. After an initial decrease in the
decades is emerging from the most reliable data sets, although mid-1970s, Antarctic sea-ice extent has remained stable, or
there are likely to be time-dependent biases in these data and even slightly increased.
regional variations in the trends. Water vapour in the lower strato-
New data indicate that there likely has been an approxi-
sphere is also likely to have increased by about 10% per decade
mately 40% decline in Arctic sea-ice thickness in late
since the beginning of the observational record (1980).
summer to early autumn between the period of 1958 to 1976
Changes in total cloud amounts over Northern Hemisphere and the mid-1990s, and a substantially smaller decline in
mid- and high latitude continental regions indicate a likely winter. The relatively short record length and incomplete
increase in cloud cover of about 2% since the beginning of the sampling limit the interpretation of these data. Interannual
20th century, which has now been shown to be positively variability and inter-decadal variability could be influencing
correlated with decreases in the diurnal temperature range. these changes.
Similar changes have been shown over Australia, the only
Southern Hemisphere continent where such an analysis has been
completed. Changes in total cloud amount are uncertain both over
sub-tropical and tropical land areas, as well as over the oceans.
30
B . 4 O b s e r v e d C h a n g e s i n S e a L ev e l in the rate of sea level rise during the 20th century has been
detected. This is not inconsistent with model results due to the
C h a n g e s d u r i n g t h e i n s t r u m e n t a l r e c o rd
possibility of compensating factors and the limited data.
Based on tide gauge data, the rate of global mean sea level rise
during the 20th century is in the range 1.0 to 2.0 mm/yr, with a C h a n g e s d u r i n g t h e p r e - i n s t r u m e n t a l r e c o rd
central value of 1.5 mm/yr (the central value should not be Since the last glacial maximum about 20,000 years ago, the
interpreted as a best estimate). (See Box 2 for the factors that sea level in locations far from present and former ice sheets
influence sea level.) As Figure 6 indicates, the longest instrumental has risen by over 120 m as a result of loss of mass from these
records (two or three centuries at most) of local sea level come ice sheets. Vertical land movements, both upward and
from tide gauges. Based on the very few long tide-gauge records, downward, are still occurring in response to these large
the average rate of sea level rise has been larger during the 20th transfers of mass from ice sheets to oceans. The most rapid
century than during the 19th century. No significant acceleration rise in global sea level was between 15,000 and 6,000 years
Box 2: What causes sea level to more than colder water for a given and low melting rates. Consequently,
change? change in temperature. The the large ice sheets are expected to
The level of the sea at the shoreline is geographical distribution of sea level make only a small net contribution to
determined by many factors in the change results from the geographical sea level change in the coming
global environment that operate on a variation of thermal expansion, decades.
great range of time-scales, from hours changes in salinity, winds, and ocean
Sea level is also influenced by
(tidal) to millions of years (ocean circulation. The range of regional
processes that are not explicitly
basin changes due to tectonics and variation is substantial compared with
related to climate change. Terrestrial
sedimentation). On the time-scale of the global average sea level rise.
water storage (and hence, sea level)
decades to centuries, some of the Sea level also changes when the mass can be altered by extraction of ground
largest influences on the average of water in the ocean increases or water, building of reservoirs, changes
levels of the sea are linked to climate decreases. This occurs when ocean in surface runoff, and seepage into
and climate change processes. water is exchanged with the water deep aquifers from reservoirs and
Firstly, as ocean water warms, it stored on land. The major land store is irrigation. These factors may be
expands. On the basis of observations the water frozen in glaciers or ice offsetting a significant fraction of the
of ocean temperatures and model sheets. Indeed, the main reason for the expected acceleration in sea level rise
results, thermal expansion is believed lower sea level during the last glacial from thermal expansion and glacial
to be one of the major contributors to period was the amount of water stored melting. In addition, coastal
historical sea level changes. Further, in the large extension of the ice sheets subsidence in river delta regions can
thermal expansion is expected to on the continents of the Northern also influence local sea level. Vertical
contribute the largest component to Hemisphere. After thermal expansion, land movements caused by natural
sea level rise over the next hundred the melting of mountain glaciers and geological processes, such as slow
years. Deep ocean temperatures ice caps is expected to make the movements in the Earth’s mantle and
change only slowly; therefore, thermal largest contribution to the rise of sea tectonic displacements of the crust,
expansion would continue for many level over the next hundred years. can have effects on local sea level that
centuries even if the atmospheric These glaciers and ice caps make up are comparable to climate-related
concentrations of greenhouse gases only a few per cent of the world’s impacts. Lastly, on seasonal,
were to stabilise. land-ice area, but they are more interannual, and decadal time-scales,
sensitive to climate change than the sea level responds to changes in
The amount of warming and the depth
larger ice sheets in Greenland and atmospheric and ocean dynamics, with
of water affected vary with location.
Antarctica, because the ice sheets are the most striking example occurring
In addition, warmer water expands
in colder climates with low precipitation during El Niño events.
31
ago, with an average rate of about 10 mm/yr. Based on B.5 Observed Changes in Atmospheric and
geological data, eustatic sea level (i.e., corresponding to a O c e a n i c C i rc u l a t i o n Pa t t e r n s
change in ocean volume) may have risen at an average rate
The behaviour of ENSO (see Box 4 for a general description),
of 0.5 mm/yr over the past 6,000 years and at an average rate
has been unusual since the mid-1970s compared with the
of 0.1 to 0.2 mm/yr over the last 3,000 years. This rate is
previous 100 years, with warm phase ENSO episodes being
about one tenth of that occurring during the 20th century.
relatively more frequent, persistent, and intense than the
Over the past 3,000 to 5,000 years, oscillations in global sea
opposite cool phase. This recent behaviour of ENSO is
level on time-scales of 100 to 1,000 years are unlikely to
reflected in variations in precipitation and temperature over
have exceeded 0.3 to 0.5 m.
much of the global tropics and sub-tropics. The overall effect
Figure 6: Time-series of relative sea level for the past 300 years from Northern Europe: Amsterdam, Netherlands; Brest, France; Sheerness, UK;
Stockholm, Sweden (detrended over the period 1774 to 1873 to remove to first order the contribution of post-glacial rebound); Swinoujscie, Poland
(formerly Swinemunde, Germany); and Liverpool, UK. Data for the latter are of “Adjusted Mean High Water” rather than Mean Sea Level and
include a nodal (18.6 year) term. The scale bar indicates ±100 mm. [Based on Figure 11.7]
32
is likely to have been a small contribution to the increase in Asia and Africa, the frequency and intensity of drought have
global temperatures during the last few decades. The been observed to increase in recent decades. In many
Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal regions, these changes are dominated by inter-decadal and
Oscillation are associated with decadal to multidecadal multi-decadal climate variability, such as the shift in ENSO
climate variability over the Pacific basin. It is likely that these towards more warm events. In many regions, inter-daily
oscillations modulate ENSO-related climate variability. temperature variability has decreased, and increases in the
daily minimum temperature are lengthening the freeze-free
Other important circulation features that affect the climate
period in most mid- and high latitude regions. Since 1950 it
in large regions of the globe are being characterised. The
is very likely that there has been a significant reduction in
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is linked to the strength of
the frequency of much-below-normal seasonal mean temper-
the westerlies over the Atlantic and extra-tropical Eurasia.
atures across much of the globe, but there has been a smaller
During winter the NAO displays irregular oscillations on
increase in the frequency of much-above-normal seasonal
interannual to multi-decadal time-scales. Since the 1970s,
temperatures.
the winter NAO has often been in a phase that contributes to
stronger westerlies, which correlate with cold season There is no compelling evidence to indicate that the
warming over Eurasia. New evidence indicates that the NAO characteristics of tropical and extratropical storms have
and changes in Arctic sea ice are likely to be closely changed. Changes in tropical storm intensity and frequency
coupled. The NAO is now believed to be part of a wider are dominated by interdecadal to multidecadal variations,
scale atmospheric Arctic Oscillation that affects much of the which may be substantial, e.g., in the tropical North Atlantic.
extratropical Northern Hemisphere. A similar Antarctic Owing to incomplete data and limited and conflicting
Oscillation has been in an enhanced positive phase during analyses, it is uncertain as to whether there have been any
the last 15 years, with stronger westerlies over the Southern long-term and large-scale increases in the intensity and
Oceans. frequency of extra-tropical cyclones in the Northern
Hemisphere. Regional increases have been identified in the
B.6 Observed Changes in Climate North Pacific, parts of North America, and Europe over the
Va r i a b i l i t y a n d E x t r e m e We a t h e r a n d past several decades. In the Southern Hemisphere, fewer
Climate Events analyses have been completed, but they suggest a decrease in
extra-tropical cyclone activity since the 1970s. Recent
New analyses show that in regions where total precipitation
analyses of changes in severe local weather (e.g., tornadoes,
has increased, it is very likely that there have been even more
thunderstorm days, and hail) in a few selected regions do not
pronounced increases in heavy and extreme precipitation
provide compelling evidence to suggest long-term changes.
events. The converse is also true. In some regions, however,
In general, trends in severe weather events are notoriously
heavy and extreme events (i.e., defined to be within the
difficult to detect because of their relatively rare occurrence
upper or lower ten percentiles) have increased despite the
and large spatial variability.
fact that total precipitation has decreased or remained
constant. This is attributed to a decrease in the frequency of
precipitation events. Overall, it is likely that for many mid- B.7 The Collective Picture: A Warming World
and Other Changes in the Climate System
and high latitude areas, primarily in the Northern
Hemisphere, statistically significant increases have occurred As summarised above, a suite of climate changes is now
in the proportion of total annual precipitation derived from well-documented, particularly over the recent decades to
heavy and extreme precipitation events; it is likely that there century time period, with its growing set of direct
has been a 2 to 4% increase in the frequency of heavy measurements. Figure 7 illustrates these trends in temperature
precipitation events over the latter half of the 20th century. indicators (Figure 7a) and hydrological and storm-related
Over the 20th century (1900 to 1995), there were relatively indicators (Figure 7b), as well as also providing an indication
small increases in global land areas experiencing severe of certainty about the changes.
drought or severe wetness. In some regions, such as parts of
33
Taken together, these trends illustrate a collective picture Some important aspects of climate appear not to have
of a warming world: changed.
● Surface temperature measurements over the land and ● A few areas of the globe have not warmed in recent
oceans (with two separate estimates over the latter) have decades, mainly over some parts of the Southern Hemisphere
been measured and adjusted independently. All data sets oceans and parts of Antarctica.
show quite similar upward trends globally, with two major
● No significant trends in Antarctic sea-ice extent are apparent
warming periods globally: 1910 to 1945 and since 1976.
over the period of systematic satellite measurements (since
There is an emerging tendency for global land-surface air
1978).
temperatures to warm faster than the global ocean-surface
temperatures. ● Based on limited data, the observed variations in the
intensity and frequency of tropical and extra-tropical
● Weather balloon measurements show that lower-tropospheric
cyclones and severe local storms show no clear trends in the
temperatures have been increasing since 1958, though only
last half of the 20th century, although multi-decadal fluctu-
slightly since 1979. Since 1979, satellite data are available
ations are sometimes apparent.
and show similar trends to balloon data.
The variations and trends in the examined indicators imply
● The decrease in the continental diurnal temperature range
that it is virtually certain that there has been a generally
coincides with increases in cloud amount, precipitation, and
increasing trend in global surface temperature over the 20th
increases in total water vapour.
century, although short-term and regional deviations from this
● The nearly worldwide decrease in mountain glacier extent trend occur.
and ice mass is consistent with worldwide surface
temperature increases. A few recent exceptions in coastal
regions are consistent with atmospheric circulation
variations and related precipitation increases.
● The decreases in snow cover and the shortening seasons of
lake and river ice relate well to increases in Northern
Hemispheric land-surface temperatures.
● The systematic decrease in spring and summer sea-ice
extent and thickness in the Arctic is consistent with
increases in temperature over most of the adjacent land and
ocean.
● Ocean heat content has increased, and global average sea
level has risen.
● The increases in total tropospheric water vapour in the last
25 years are qualitatively consistent with increases in
tropospheric temperatures and an enhanced hydrologic
cycle, resulting in more extreme and heavier precipitation
events in many areas with increasing precipitation, e.g.,
middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
34
Figure 7a: Schematic of observed variations of
(a) Temperature Indicators the temperature indicators. [Based on Figure
O C E A N L A N D O C E A N 2.39a]
LOWER STRATOSPHERE
**lower stratosphere: 0.5 to 2.5 oC decrease since 1979
TROPOSPHERE Upper * Little or no change since 1979

** 0.0 to 0.2 oC increase since 1979 - satellites & balloons
Low- to Mid-
* 0.2 to 0.4 o C increase since ~1960
NEAR-SURFACE ** N.H. Spring snow cover extent:

since
1987, 10% below 1966-86 mean
* 1990s warmest decade of the millennium
and 1998 warmest year for at least the N.H.
** marine air temperature: 0.4 to 0.7oC

increase since late-19th century
*** massive retreat of mountain glaciers

*** sea surface temperature: during 20th century * Arctic sea ice: summer
0.4 to 0.8 oC increase since
the late 19th century. * land night time air temperature thickness decrease of 40%
increasing at twice the rate of daytime and 10 to 15% decrease in
temperatures since 1950 extent during spring and
* global ocean (to 300m depth)
heat content increase since 1950s ** lake and river ice retreat at mid and high summer since
o 1950s
equal to 0.04 C / decade latitudes since the late 19th century (2 week
decrease in ice duration) ? Ant arctic sea ice:
*** land air temperatures: 0.4 to 0.8 oC no significant change
increase since late 19th century since 1978
*** Virtually certain (probability > 99%)

Likelihood:
** Very likely (probability _
> 90% but _
< 99%)
* Likely (probability > 66% but < 90%)
? Medium likelihood (probability > 33% but _
< 66%)
(b) Hydrological and Stor m related Indicators Figure 7b: Schematic of observed variations of
O C E A N L A N D O C E A N the hydrological and storm-related indicators.
LOWER STRATOSPHERE * 20% water vapour increase since 1980 (above 18 km) [Based on Figure 2.39b]
TROPOSPHERE upper troposphere: *no significant global trends since 1980;

Water vapour 15% increase in tropics (10°N to 10°S)
troposphere: *many regions with increases since about 1960
* 2% increase in total cloud amount

? 2% increase in total
over land during the 20th century
cloud amount over the
ocean since 1952
NEAR-SURFACE ❄❄
? no systematic large-scale ❄❄❄
change in tornadoes, thunder-days, hail ❄ ❄ ❄ ? no consistent 20th century
❄❄ change in extra-tropical
* 2 to 3% decrease in sub-tropics storm frequency / intensity
20th century
* 2 to 3% increase in tropics land surface rainfall
**5 to10% increase in N. Hemisphere

mid-to-high latitude precipitation since 1900,
** no widespread changes in with much of it due to heavy / extreme events
tropical storm frequency / intensity * widespread significant increases
during the 20th century in surface water vapour in the
N. Hemisphere, 1975 to 1995
*** Virtually certain (probability > 99%)

Likelihood:
** Very likely (probability >_ 90% but <_ 99%)
* Likely (probability > 66% but < 90%)
? Medium likelihood (probability > 33% but <
_ 66%)
35
C . T h e F o rc i n g A g e n t s T h a t C a u s e (a)
Climate Change Carbon Dioxide 1.5
360
340 1.0
CO2 (ppm)
In addition to the past variations and changes in the Earth’s 320
climate, observations have also documented the changes that 300
0.5
have occurred in agents that can cause climate change. Most 280 0.0
notable among these are increases in the atmospheric 260
concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols (microscopic
Atmospheric concentration
Radiative forcing (Wm−2)

airborne particles or droplets) and variations in solar activity, Methane 0.5
1750
both of which can alter the Earth’s radiation budget and hence 0.4
1500
CH4 (ppb)
climate. These observational records of climate-forcing agents 0.3
1250
are part of the input needed to understand the past climate 0.2
1000
changes noted in the preceding Section and, very importantly, 0.1
to predict what climate changes could lie ahead (see Section F). 750 0.0
Like the record of past climate changes, the data sets for forcing 0.15
310 Nitrous Oxide
agents are of varying length and quality. Direct measurements of
0.10
solar irradiance exist for only about two decades. The sustained
N2O (ppb) 290
direct monitoring of the atmospheric concentrations of carbon 0.05
dioxide (CO2) began about the middle of the 20th century and, 0.0
270
in later years, for other long-lived, well-mixed gases such as
methane. Palaeo-atmospheric data from ice cores reveal the 250
concentration changes occurring in earlier millennia for some 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year
greenhouse gases. In contrast, the time-series measurements for
the forcing agents that have relatively short residence times in (b)
(mg SO42– per tonne of ice)
SO2 emissions (Millions of

the atmosphere (e.g., aerosols) are more recent and are far less
tonnes sulphur per year)

200 Sulphur
Sulphate concentration
complete, because they are harder to measure and are spatially

50
heterogeneous. Current data sets show the human influence on
atmospheric concentrations of both the long-lived greenhouse 100
25
gases and short-lived forcing agents during the last part of the
past millennium. Figure 8 illustrates the effects of the large
0 0
growth over the Industrial Era in the anthropogenic emissions of 1600 1800 2000
greenhouse gases and sulphur dioxide, the latter being a Year
precursor of aerosols.
Figure 8: Records of changes in atmospheric composition. (a)
A change in the energy available to the global Earth-atmosphere Atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O over the past
system due to changes in these forcing agents is termed 1,000 years. Ice core and firn data for several sites in Antarctica and
radiative forcing (Wm−2) of the climate system (see Box 1). Greenland (shown by different symbols) are supplemented with the
Defined in this manner, radiative forcing of climate change data from direct atmospheric samples over the past few decades
constitutes an index of the relative global mean impacts on the (shown by the line for CO2 and incorporated in the curve representing
surface-troposphere system due to different natural and the global average of CH4). The estimated radiative forcing from
anthropogenic causes. This Section updates the knowledge of these gases is indicated on the right-hand scale. (b) Sulphate
the radiative forcing of climate change that has occurred from concentration in several Greenland ice cores with the episodic effects
pre-industrial times to the present. Figure 9 shows the estimated of volcanic eruptions removed (lines) and total SO2 emissions from
radiative forcings from the beginning of the Industrial Era sources in the US and Europe (crosses). [Based on (a) Figure 3.2b
(1750) to 1999 for the quantifiable natural and anthropogenic (CO2), Figure 4.1a and b (CH4) and Figure 4.2 (N2O) and (b) Figure
5.4a]
36
3
Halocarbons
2 N2O Aerosols
CH4 Fossil
Warming
fuel
Radiative Forcing (Wm−2)
CO2
1 burning
Tropospheric Mineral Aviation-induced
(black
ozone Dust Solar
carbon)
Contrails Cirrus
0
Stratospheric Fossil
ozone fuel Land-
Cooling
Biomass Tropospheric
burning burning use
−1 Sulphate aerosol (albedo)
(organic
carbon) indirect
effect
(1st type)
−2
High Medium Medium Low Very Very Very Very Very Very Very Very
Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low
Level of Scientific Understanding
Figure 9: Global, annual-mean radiative forcings (Wm−2) due to a number of agents for the period from pre-industrial (1750) to present (late 1990s;
about 2000) (numerical values are also listed in Table 6.11 of Chapter 6). For detailed explanations, see Chapter 6.13. The height of the rectangular
bar denotes a central or best estimate value, while its absence denotes no best estimate is possible. The vertical line about the rectangular bar with “x”
delimiters indicates an estimate of the uncertainty range, for the most part guided by the spread in the published values of the forcing. A vertical line
without a rectangular bar and with “o” delimiters denotes a forcing for which no central estimate can be given owing to large uncertainties. The
uncertainty range specified here has no statistical basis and therefore differs from the use of the term elsewhere in this document. A “level of scientific
understanding” index is accorded to each forcing, with high, medium, low and very low levels, respectively. This represents the subjective judgement
about the reliability of the forcing estimate, involving factors such as the assumptions necessary to evaluate the forcing, the degree of knowledge of
the physical/chemical mechanisms determining the forcing, and the uncertainties surrounding the quantitative estimate of the forcing (see Table 6.12).
The well-mixed greenhouse gases are grouped together into a single rectangular bar with the individual mean contributions due to CO2, CH4, N2O and
halocarbons shown (see Tables 6.1 and 6.11). Fossil fuel burning is separated into the “black carbon” and “organic carbon” components with its
separate best estimate and range. The sign of the effects due to mineral dust is itself an uncertainty. The indirect forcing due to tropospheric aerosols
is poorly understood. The same is true for the forcing due to aviation via its effects on contrails and cirrus clouds. Only the “first” type of indirect effect
due to aerosols as applicable in the context of liquid clouds is considered here. The “second” type of effect is conceptually important, but there exists
very little confidence in the simulated quantitative estimates. The forcing associated with stratospheric aerosols from volcanic eruptions is highly
variable over the period and is not considered for this plot (however, see Figure 6.8). All the forcings shown have distinct spatial and seasonal features
(Figure 6.7) such that the global, annual means appearing on this plot do not yield a complete picture of the radiative perturbation. They are only
intended to give, in a relative sense, a first-order perspective on a global, annual mean scale and cannot be readily employed to obtain the climate
response to the total natural and/or anthropogenic forcings. As in the SAR, it is emphasised that the positive and negative global mean forcings cannot
be added up and viewed a priori as providing offsets in terms of the complete global climate impact. [Based on Figure 6.6]
37
forcing agents. Although not included in the figure due to their C . 1 O b s e r v e d C h a n g e s i n G l o b a l ly We l l -
episodic nature, volcanic eruptions are the source of another Mixed Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and
important natural forcing. Summaries of the information about R a d i a t i v e F o rc i n g
each forcing agent follow in the sub-sections below. Over the millennium before the Industrial Era, the atmospheric
The forcing agents included in Figure 9 vary greatly in their concentrations of greenhouse gases remained relatively
form, magnitude and spatial distribution. Some of the constant. Since then, however, the concentrations of many
greenhouse gases are emitted directly into the atmosphere; greenhouse gases have increased directly or indirectly
some are chemical products from other emissions. Some because of human activities.
greenhouse gases have long atmospheric residence times and, Table 1 provides examples of several greenhouse gases and
as a result, are well-mixed throughout the atmosphere. summarises their 1750 and 1998 concentrations, their
Others are short-lived and have heterogeneous regional change during the 1990s, and their atmospheric lifetimes.
concentrations. Most of the gases originate from both natural The contribution of a species to radiative forcing of climate
and anthropogenic sources. Lastly, as shown in Figure 9, the change depends on the molecular radiative properties of the
radiative forcings of individual agents can be positive (i.e., a gas, the size of the increase in atmospheric concentration,
tendency to warm the Earth’s surface) or negative (i.e., a and the residence time of the species in the atmosphere,
tendency to cool the Earth’s surface). once emitted. The latter – the atmospheric residence time of
the greenhouse gas – is a highly policy relevant characteristic.
Namely, emissions of a greenhouse gas that has a long
atmospheric residence time is a quasi-irreversible
commitment to sustained radiative forcing over decades,
centuries, or millennia, before natural processes can remove
the quantities emitted.
Table 1: Examples of greenhouse gases that are affected by human activities. [Based upon Chapter 3 and Table 4.1]
CO 2 CH 4 N2O CFC-11 HFC-23 CF 4

(Carbon (Methane) (Nitrous (Chlorofluoro (Hydrofluoro (Perfluoro-
Dioxide) Oxide) -carbon-11) -carbon-23) methane)
Pre-industrial concentration about 280 ppm about 700 ppb about 270 ppb zero zero 40 ppt
Concentration in 1998 365 ppm 1745 ppb 314 ppb 268 ppt 14 ppt 80 ppt
Rate of concentration 1.5 ppm/yr a 7.0 ppb/yr a 0.8 ppb/yr −1.4 ppt/yr 0.55 ppt/yr 1 ppt/yr
change b
Atmospheric lifetime 5 to 200 yr c 12 yr d 114 yr d 45 yr 260 yr >50,000 yr
a
Rate has fluctuated between 0.9 ppm/yr and 2.8 ppm/yr for CO2 and between 0 and 13 ppb/yr for CH4 over the period 1990 to 1999.
b
Rate is calculated over the period 1990 to 1999.
c
No single lifetime can be defined for CO2 because of the different rates of uptake by different removal processes.
d This lifetime has been defined as an “adjustment time” that takes into account the indirect effect of the gas on its own residence time.
38
C a r b o n d i ox i d e ( C O 2 ) Direct atmospheric measurements of CO2 concentrations made
The atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased from over the past 40 years show that year to year fluctuations in the
280 ppm5 in 1750 to 367 ppm in 1999 (31%, Table 1). rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 are large. In the 1990s, the
Today’s CO2 concentration has not been exceeded during the annual rates of CO2 increase in the atmosphere varied from 0.9
past 420,000 years and likely not during the past 20 million to 2.8 ppm/yr, equivalent to 1.9 to 6.0 PgC/yr. Such annual
years. The rate of increase over the past century is unprece- changes can be related statistically to short-term climate
dented, at least during the past 20,000 years (Figure 10). variability, which alters the rate at which atmospheric CO2 is
The CO2 isotopic composition and the observed decrease in taken up and released by the oceans and land. The highest rates
Oxygen (O2) demonstrates that the observed increase in CO2 of increase in atmospheric CO2 have typically been in strong El
is predominately due to the oxidation of organic carbon by Niño years (Box 4). These higher rates of increase can be
fossil-fuel combustion and deforestation. An expanding set plausibly explained by reduced terrestrial uptake (or terrestrial
of palaeo-atmospheric data from air trapped in ice over outgassing) of CO2 during El Niño years, overwhelming the
hundreds of millennia provide a context for the increase in tendency of the ocean to take up more CO2 than usual.
CO2 concentrations during the Industrial Era (Figure 10).
Partitioning of anthropogenic CO2 between atmospheric
Compared to the relatively stable CO2 concentrations (280 ±
increases and land and ocean uptake for the past two decades
10 ppm) of the preceding several thousand years, the
can now be calculated from atmospheric observations. Table
increase during the Industrial Era is dramatic. The average
2 presents a global CO2 budget for the 1980s (which proves to
rate of increase since 1980 is 0.4%/yr. The increase is a
be similar to the one constructed with the help of ocean
consequence of CO2 emissions. Most of the emissions
model results in the SAR) and for the 1990s. Measurements
during the past 20 years are due to fossil fuel burning, the
of the decrease in atmospheric oxygen (O2) as well as the
rest (10 to 30%) is predominantly due to land-use change,
increase in CO2 were used in the construction of these new
especially deforestation. As shown in Figure 9, CO2 is the
budgets. Results from this approach are consistent with other
dominant human-influenced greenhouse gas, with a current
analyses based on the isotopic composition of atmospheric
radiative forcing of 1.46 Wm−2, being 60% of the total from
CO2 and with independent estimates based on measurements
the changes in concentrations of all of the long-lived and
of CO2 and 13CO2 in seawater. The 1990s budget is based on
globally mixed greenhouse gases.
newly available measurements and updates the budget for
Table 2: Global CO2 budgets (in PgC/yr) based on measurements of atmospheric CO2 and O2. Positive values are fluxes to the atmosphere;
negative values represent uptake from the atmosphere. [Based upon Tables 3.1 and 3.3]
SAR a,b This Report a

1980 to 1989 1980 to 1989 1990 to 1999
Atmospheric increase 3.3 ± 0.1 3.3 ± 0.1 3.2 ± 0.1
Emissions (fossil fuel, cement) c 5.5 ± 0.3 5.4 ± 0.3 6.3 ± 0.4
Ocean-atmosphere flux − 2.0 ± 0.5 − 1.9 ± 0.6 − 1.7 ± 0.5
Land-atmosphere flux d − 0.2 ± 0.6 − 0.2 ± 0.7 − 1.4 ± 0.7
a Note that the uncertainties cited in this table are ±1 standard error. The uncertainties cited in the SAR were ±1.6 standard error (i.e., approximately
90% confidence interval). Uncertainties cited from the SAR were adjusted to ±1 standard error. Error bars denote uncertainty, not interannual
variability, which is substantially greater.
b
Previous IPCC carbon budgets calculated ocean uptake from models and the land-atmosphere flux was inferred by difference.
c
The fossil fuel emissions term for the 1980s has been revised slightly downward since the SAR.
d The land-atmosphere flux represents the balance of a positive term due to land-use change and a residual terrestrial sink. The two terms cannot be
separated on the basis of current atmospheric measurements. Using independent analyses to estimate the land-use change component for 1980 to
1989, the residual terrestrial sink can be inferred as follows: Land-use change 1.7 PgC/yr (0.6 to 2.5); Residual terrestrial sink −1.9 PgC/yr (−3.8 to
0.3). Comparable data for the 1990s are not yet available.
5
Atmospheric abundances of trace gases are reported here as the mole fraction (molar mixing ratio) of the gas relative to dry air (ppm = 10−6, ppb = 10−9,
ppt = 10−12). Atmospheric burden is reported as the total mass of the gas (e.g., Mt = Tg = 1012 g). The global carbon cycle is expressed in PgC = GtC.
39
Figure 10: Variations in
Variations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations on different time-scales atmospheric CO2 concentration on
different time-scales. (a) Direct
380 380
360
(a) 360 (d) Vostok measurements of atmospheric CO2.
CO2 concentration (ppm)

(b) CO2 concentration in Antarctic
340 340
320 320
ice cores for the past millenium.
300 300
280 CO2 Mauna Loa Recent atmospheric measurements
280
CO2 South Pole
260 260 (Mauna Loa) are shown for
240 240 comparison. (c) CO2 concentration
220 220
in the Taylor Dome Antarctic ice
200 200
180 180
core. (d) CO2 concentration in the
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 400 300 200 100 0 Vostok Antarctic ice core. (Different
Year Age (kyr BP)
colours represent results from
380 380 different studies.) (e to f)
360 (b) 360 (e)
Geochemically inferred CO2
340 340
320 320
concentrations. (Coloured bars and
300 300 lines represent different published
280 280 studies) (g) Annual atmospheric
260 260
Mauna Loa increases in CO2. Monthly
240 Law Dome 240
220 Adelie Land 220 atmospheric increases have been
Siple
200 200 filtered to remove the seasonal
South Pole
180 180
cycle. Vertical arrows denote El
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 25 20 15 10 5 0
Year Age (Myr BP) Niño events. A horizontal line
defines the extended El Niño of
380 7500
360 (c) Taylor Dome (f) 1991 to 1994. [Based on Figures
3.2 and 3.3]

340 6000
320
300 4500
280
260 3000
240
220 1500
200
180 0
12500 10000 7500 5000 2500 0 500 400 300 200 100 0
Age (yr BP) Age (Myr BP)
Rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere

8
g)
7 monthly atmospheric increase (filtered)
6 annual atmospheric increase
fossil fuel emissions
5
PgC/yr
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
40
1989 to 1998 derived using SAR methodology for the IPCC
Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
(2000). The terrestrial biosphere as a whole has gained carbon
during the 1980s and 1990s; i.e., the CO2 released by land-
use change (mainly tropical deforestation) was more than
compensated by other terrestrial sinks, which are likely
located in both the northern extra-tropics and in the tropics.
There remain large uncertainties associated with estimating
the CO2 release due to land-use change (and, therefore, with
the magnitude of the residual terrestrial sink).
Process-based modelling (terrestrial and ocean carbon
models) has allowed preliminary quantification of
mechanisms in the global carbon cycle. Terrestrial model
results indicate that enhanced plant growth due to higher CO2
(CO2 fertilisation) and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition
contribute significantly to CO2 uptake, i.e., are potentially
responsible for the residual terrestrial sink described above,
along with other proposed mechanisms, such as changes in
land-management practices. The modelled effects of climate
change during the 1980s on the terrestrial sink are small and
of uncertain sign.
Methane (CH4)
Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have increased by
about 150% (1,060 ppb) since 1750. The present CH4
concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000
years. Methane (CH4) is a greenhouse gas with both natural
(e.g., wetlands) and human-influenced sources (e.g.,
agriculture, natural gas activities, and landfills). Slightly more
than half of current CH4 emissions are anthropogenic. It is
removed from the atmosphere by chemical reactions. As
Figure 11 shows, systematic, globally representative
measurements of the concentration of CH4 in the atmosphere
have been made since 1983, and the record of atmospheric
concentrations has been extended to earlier times from air
extracted from ice cores and firn layers. The current direct
radiative forcing of 0.48 Wm−2 from CH4 is 20% of the total
from all of the long-lived and globally mixed greenhouse Figure 11: (a) Change in CH4 abundance (mole fraction, in ppb = 10−9)
determined from ice cores, firn, and whole air samples plotted for the
gases (see Figure 9).
last 1000 years. Radiative forcing, approximated by a linear scale since
The atmospheric abundance of CH4 continues to increase, the pre-industrial era, is plotted on the right axis. (b) Globally averaged
from about 1,610 ppb in 1983 to 1,745 ppb in 1998, but the CH4 (monthly varying) and deseasonalised CH4 (smooth line)
observed annual increase has declined during this period. abundance plotted for 1983 to 1999. (c) Instantaneous annual growth
The increase was highly variable during the 1990s; it was rate (ppb/yr) in global atmospheric CH4 abundance from 1983 through
near zero in 1992 and as large as 13 ppb during 1998. There 1999 calculated as the derivative of the deseasonalised trend curve
is no clear quantitative explanation for this variability. Since above. Uncertainties (dotted lines) are ±1 standard deviation. [Based
on Figure 4.1]
41
the SAR, quantification of certain anthropogenic sources of brought the source/sink estimates closer in balance, compared
CH4, such as that from rice production, has improved. with the SAR. However, the predictive understanding
associated with this significant, long-lived greenhouse gas has
The rate of increase in atmospheric CH4 is due to a small
not improved significantly since the last assessment. The
imbalance between poorly characterised sources and sinks,
radiative forcing is estimated at 0.15 Wm−2, which is 6% of
which makes the prediction of future concentrations
the total from all of the long-lived and globally mixed
problematic. Although the major contributors to the global
greenhouse gases (see Figure 9).
CH4 budget likely have been identified, most of them are quite
uncertain quantitatively because of the difficulty in assessing Halocarbons and related compounds
emission rates of highly variable biospheric sources. The The atmospheric concentrations of many of those gases that
limitations of poorly quantified and characterised CH4 source are both ozone-depleting and greenhouse gases are either
strengths inhibit the prediction of future CH4 atmospheric decreasing (CFC-11, CFC-113, CH3CCl3 and CCl4) or
concentrations (and hence its contribution to radiative forcing) increasing more slowly (CFC-12) in response to reduced
for any given anthropogenic emission scenario, particularly emissions under the regulations of the Montreal Protocol and
since both natural emissions and the removal of CH4 can be its Amendments. Many of these halocarbons are also
influenced substantially by climate change. radiatively effective, long-lived greenhouse gases.
Halocarbons are carbon compounds that contain fluorine,
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
chlorine, bromine or iodine. For most of these compounds,
The atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide (N2O) has
human activities are the sole source. Halocarbons that
steadily increased during the Industrial Era and is now 16%
contain chlorine (e.g., chlorofluorocarbons - CFCs) and
(46 ppb) larger than in 1750. The present N2O concentration
bromine (e.g., halons) cause depletion of the stratospheric
has not been exceeded during at least the past thousand years.
ozone layer and are controlled under the Montreal Protocol.
Nitrous oxide is another greenhouse gas with both natural and
The combined tropospheric abundance of ozone-depleting
anthropogenic sources, and it is removed from the atmosphere
gases peaked in 1994 and is slowly declining. The
by chemical reactions. Atmospheric concentrations of N2O
atmospheric abundances of some of the major greenhouse
continue to increase at a rate of 0.25%/yr (1980 to 1998).
halocarbons have peaked, as shown for CFC-11 in Figure 12.
Significant interannual variations in the upward trend of N2O
The concentrations of CFCs and chlorocarbons in the
concentrations are observed, e.g., a 50% reduction in annual
troposphere are consistent with reported emissions.
growth rate from 1991 to 1993. Suggested causes are several-
Halocarbons contribute a radiative forcing of 0.34 Wm−2,
fold: a decrease in use of nitrogen-based fertiliser, lower
which is 14% of the radiative forcing from all of the globally
biogenic emissions, and larger stratospheric losses due to
mixed greenhouse gases (Figure 9).
volcanic-induced circulation changes. Since 1993, the growth
of N2O concentrations has returned to rates closer to those The observed atmospheric concentrations of the substitutes for
observed during the 1980s. While this observed multi-year the CFCs are increasing, and some of these compounds are
variance has provided some potential insight into what greenhouse gases. The abundances of the hydrochlorofluoro-
processes control the behaviour of atmospheric N2O, the carbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are
multi-year trends of this greenhouse gas remain largely increasing as a result of continuation of earlier uses and of
unexplained. their use as substitutes for the CFCs. For example, the concen-
tration of HFC-23 has increased by more than a factor of three
The global budget of nitrous oxide is in better balance than in
between 1978 and 1995. Because current concentrations are
the SAR, but uncertainties in the emissions from individual
relatively low, the present contribution of HFCs to radiative
sources are still quite large. Natural sources of N2O are
forcing is relatively small. The present contribution of HCFCs
estimated to be approximately 10 TgN/yr (1990), with soils
to radiative forcing is also relatively small, and future
being about 65% of the sources and oceans about 30%.
emissions of these gases are limited by the Montreal Protocol.
New, higher estimates of the emissions from anthropogenic
sources (agriculture, biomass burning, industrial activities, The perfluorocarbons (PFCs, e.g., CF4 and C2F6) and sulphur
and livestock management) of approximately 7 TgN/yr have hexafluoride (SF6) have anthropogenic sources, have extremely
42
Further, ozone is not a directly emitted species, but rather it is
formed in the atmosphere from photochemical processes
involving both natural and human-influenced precursor
species. Once formed, the residence time of ozone in the
atmosphere is relatively short, varying from weeks to months.
As a result, estimation of ozone’s radiative role is more
complex and much less certain than for the above long-lived
and globally well-mixed greenhouse gases.
The observed losses of stratospheric ozone layer over the past
two decades have caused a negative forcing of
0.15 ± 0.1 Wm−2 (i.e., a tendency toward cooling) of the
surface troposphere system. It was reported in Climate Change
1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific
Assessment, that depletion of the ozone layer by anthro-
Figure 12: Global mean CFC-11 (CFCl3) tropospheric abundance (ppt)
pogenic halocarbons introduces a negative radiative forcing.
from 1950 to 1998 based on smoothed measurements and emission
The estimate shown in Figure 9 is slightly larger in magnitude
models. CFC-11's radiative forcing is shown on the right axis. [Based
than that given in the SAR, owing to the ozone depletion that
on Figure 4.6]
has continued over the past five years, and it is more certain as
a result of an increased number of modelling studies. Studies
with General Circulation Models indicate that, despite the
inhomogeneity in ozone loss (i.e., lower stratosphere at high
long atmospheric residence times, and are strong absorbers of
latitudes), such a negative forcing does relate to a surface
infrared radiation. Therefore, these compounds, even with
temperature decrease in proportion to the magnitude of the
relatively small emissions, have the potential to influence
negative forcing. Therefore, this negative forcing over the past
climate far into the future. Perfluoromethane (CF4) resides in
two decades has offset some of the positive forcing that is
the atmosphere for at least 50,000 years. It has a natural
occurring from the long-lived and globally well-mixed
background; however, current anthropogenic emissions exceed
greenhouse gases (Figure 9). A major source of uncertainty in
natural ones by a factor of 1,000 or more and are responsible
the estimation of the negative forcing is due to incomplete
for the observed increase. Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) is 22,200
knowledge of ozone depletion near the tropopause. Model
times more effective a greenhouse gas than CO2 on a per-kg
calculations indicate that increased penetration of ultraviolet
basis. The current atmospheric concentrations are very small
radiation to the troposphere, as a result of stratospheric ozone
(4.2 ppt), but have a significant growth rate (0.24 ppt/yr).
depletion, leads to enhanced removal rates of gases like CH4,
There is good agreement between the observed atmospheric
thus amplifying the negative forcing due to ozone depletion.
growth rate of SF6 and the emissions based on revised sales
As the ozone layer recovers in future decades because of the
and storage data.
effects of the Montreal Protocol, relative to the present, future
radiative forcing associated with stratospheric ozone is
C . 2 O b s e r v e d C h a n g e s i n O t h e r R a d i a t i v e ly projected to become positive.
Important Gases
The global average radiative forcing due to increases in
A t m o s p h e r i c o z o n e ( O 3) tropospheric ozone since pre-industrial times is estimated to
Ozone (O3) is an important greenhouse gas present in both the have enhanced the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing by
stratosphere and troposphere. The role of ozone in the 0.35 ± 0.2 Wm−2. This makes tropospheric ozone the third
atmospheric radiation budget is strongly dependent on the most important greenhouse gas after CO2 and CH4. Ozone is
altitude at which changes in ozone concentrations occur. The formed by photochemical reactions and its future change will
changes in ozone concentrations are also spatially variable. be determined by, among other things, emissions of CH4 and
43
pollutants (as noted below). Ozone concentrations respond of the reaction products of NOx fertilises the biosphere,
relatively quickly to changes in the emissions of pollutants. On thereby decreasing atmospheric CO2. While difficult to
the basis of limited observations and several modelling studies, quantify, increases in NOx that are projected to the year 2100
tropospheric ozone is estimated to have increased by about would cause significant changes in greenhouse gases.
35% since the Pre-industrial Era, with some regions experi-
encing larger and some with smaller increases. There have C.3 Observed and Modelled Changes in
been few observed increases in ozone concentrations in the A e ro s o l s
global troposphere since the mid-1980s at most of the few
remote locations where it is regularly measured. The lack of Aerosols (very small airborne particles and droplets) are
observed increase over North America and Europe is related to known to influence significantly the radiative budget of the
the lack of a sustained increase in ozone-precursor emissions Earth/atmosphere. Aerosol radiative effects occur in two
from those continents. However, some Asian stations indicate distinct ways: (i) the direct effect, whereby aerosols
a possible rise in tropospheric ozone, which could be related to themselves scatter and absorb solar and thermal infrared
the increase in East Asian emissions. As a result of more radiation, and (ii) the indirect effect, whereby aerosols
modelling studies than before, there is now an increased modify the microphysical and hence the radiative properties
confidence in the estimates of tropospheric ozone forcing. The and amount of clouds. Aerosols are produced by a variety of
confidence, however, is still much less than that for the well-mixed processes, both natural (including dust storms and volcanic
greenhouse gases, but more so than that for aerosol forcing. activity) and anthropogenic (including fossil fuel and
Uncertainties arise because of limited information on pre-industrial biomass burning). The atmospheric concentrations of
ozone distributions and limited information to evaluate tropospheric aerosols are thought to have increased over
modelled global trends in the modern era (i.e., post-1960). recent years due to increased anthropogenic emissions of
particles and their precursor gases, hence giving rise to
G a s e s w i t h o n ly i n d i r e c t r a d i a t i v e i n f l u e n c e s radiative forcing. Most aerosols are found in the lower
Several chemically reactive gases, including reactive nitrogen troposphere (below a few kilometres), but the radiative effect
species (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), and the volatile organic of many aerosols is sensitive to the vertical distribution.
compounds (VOCs), control, in part, the oxidising capacity of Aerosols undergo chemical and physical changes while in the
the troposphere, as well as the abundance of ozone. These atmosphere, notably within clouds, and are removed largely
pollutants act as indirect greenhouse gases through their and relatively rapidly by precipitation (typically within a
influence not only on ozone, but also on the lifetimes of CH4 week). Because of this short residence time and the
and other greenhouse gases. The emissions of NOx and CO are inhomogeneity of sources, aerosols are distributed
dominated by human activities. inhomogeneously in the troposphere, with maxima near the
Carbon monoxide is identified as an important indirect sources. The radiative forcing due to aerosols depends not
greenhouse gas. Model calculations indicate that emission of only on these spatial distributions, but also on the size,
100 Mt of CO is equivalent in terms of greenhouse gas shape, and chemical composition of the particles and various
perturbations to the emission of about 5 Mt of CH4. The aspects (e.g., cloud formation) of the hydrological cycle as
abundance of CO in the Northern Hemisphere is about twice that well. As a result of all of these factors, obtaining accurate
in the Southern Hemisphere and has increased in the second half estimates of this forcing has been very challenging, from
of the 20th century along with industrialisation and population. both the observational and theoretical standpoints.
The reactive nitrogen species NO and NO2, (whose sum is Nevertheless, substantial progress has been achieved in better
denoted NOx), are key compounds in the chemistry of the defining the direct effect of a wider set of different aerosols. The
troposphere, but their overall radiative impact remains SAR considered the direct effects of only three anthropogenic
difficult to quantify. The importance of NOx in the radiation aerosol species: sulphate aerosols, biomass-burning aerosols,
budget is because increases in NOx concentrations perturb and fossil fuel black carbon (or soot). Observations have now
several greenhouse gases; for example, decreases in methane shown the importance of organic materials in both fossil fuel
and the HFCs and increases in tropospheric ozone. Deposition carbon aerosols and biomass-burning carbon aerosols. Since
44
the SAR, the inclusion of estimates for the abundance of magnitude of any such indirect effect is not known, although it
fossil fuel organic carbon aerosols has led to an increase in is likely to be positive. It is not possible to estimate the number
the predicted total optical depth (and consequent negative of anthropogenic ice nuclei at the present time. Except at cold
forcing) associated with industrial aerosols. Advances in temperatures (below −45°C) where homogeneous nucleation is
observations and in aerosol and radiative models have allowed expected to dominate, the mechanisms of ice formation in
quantitative estimates of these separate components, as well these clouds are not yet known.
as an estimate for the range of radiative forcing associated
with mineral dust, as shown in Figure 9. Direct radiative C.4 Observed Changes in Other
forcing is estimated to be −0.4 Wm−2 for sulphate, A n t h ro p o g e n i c F o rc i n g A g e n t s
−0.2 Wm−2 for biomass-burning aerosols, −0.1 Wm−2 for
fossil fuel organic carbon, and +0.2 Wm−2 for fossil fuel black Land-use (albedo) change
carbon aerosols. Uncertainties remain relatively large, Changes in land use, deforestation being the major factor,
however. These arise from difficulties in determining the appear to have produced a negative radiative forcing of
concentration and radiative characteristics of atmospheric −0.2 ± 0.2 Wm−2 (Figure 8). The largest effect is estimated to be
aerosols and the fraction of the aerosols that are of anthropogenic at the high latitudes. This is because deforestation has caused
origin, particularly the knowledge of the sources of snow-covered forests with relatively low albedo to be replaced
carbonaceous aerosols. This leads to considerable differences with open, snow-covered areas with higher albedo. The estimate
(i.e., factor of two to three range) in the burden and given above is based on simulations in which pre-industrial
substantial differences in the vertical distribution (factor of vegetation is replaced by current land-use patterns. However, the
ten). Anthropogenic dust aerosol is also poorly quantified. level of understanding is very low for this forcing, and there
Satellite observations, combined with model calculations, are have been far fewer investigations of this forcing compared to
enabling the identification of the spatial signature of the total investigations of other factors considered in this report.
aerosol radiative effect in clear skies; however, the quanti-
tative amount is still uncertain. C.5 Observed and Modelled Changes in
Estimates of the indirect radiative forcing by anthropogenic S o l a r a n d Vo l c a n i c A c t i v i t y
aerosols remain problematic, although observational evidence Radiative forcing of the climate system due to solar irradiance
points to a negative aerosol-induced indirect forcing in warm change is estimated to be 0.3 ± 0.2 Wm−2 for the period 1750
clouds. Two different approaches exist for estimating the to the present (Figure 8), and most of the change is estimated
indirect effect of aerosols: empirical methods and mechanistic to have occurred during the first half of the 20th century. The
methods. The former have been applied to estimate the effects fundamental source of all energy in the Earth’s climate system
of industrial aerosols, while the latter have been applied to is radiation from the Sun. Therefore, variation in solar output
estimate the effects of sulphate, fossil fuel carbonaceous is a radiative forcing agent. The absolute value of the
aerosols, and biomass aerosols. In addition, models for the spectrally integrated total solar irradiance (TSI) incident on the
indirect effect have been used to estimate the effects of the Earth is not known to better than about 4 Wm−2, but satellite
initial change in droplet size and concentrations (a first observations since the late 1970s show relative variations over
indirect effect), as well as the effects of the subsequent change the past two solar 11-year activity cycles of about 0.1%, which
in precipitation efficiency (a second indirect effect). The is equivalent to a variation in radiative forcing of about 0.2
studies represented in Figure 9 provide an expert judgement Wm−2. Prior to these satellite observations, reliable direct
for the range of the first of these; the range is now slightly measurements of solar irradiance are not available. Variations
wider than in the SAR; the radiative perturbation associated over longer periods may have been larger, but the techniques
with the second indirect effect is of the same sign and could be used to reconstruct historical values of TSI from proxy
of similar magnitude compared to the first effect. observations (e.g., sunspots) have not been adequately verified.
The indirect radiative effect of aerosols is now understood to Solar variation varies more substantially in the ultraviolet
also encompass effects on ice and mixed-phase clouds, but the region, and studies with climate models suggest that inclusion
of spectrally resolved solar irradiance variations and solar-
45
induced stratospheric ozone changes may improve the realism D. T h e S i mu l a t i o n o f t h e C l i m a t e
of model simulations of the impact of solar variability on System and its Changes
climate. Other mechanisms for the amplification of solar
effects on climate have been proposed, but do not have a The preceding two Sections reported on the climate from the
rigorous theoretical or observational basis. distant past to the present day through the observations of
Stratospheric aerosols from explosive volcanic eruptions lead climate variables and the forcing agents that cause climate to
to negative forcing that lasts a few years. Several explosive change. This Section bridges to the climate of the future by
eruptions occurred in the periods 1880 to 1920 and 1960 to describing the only tool that provides quantitative estimates of
1991, and no explosive eruptions since 1991. Enhanced future climate changes, namely, numerical models. The basic
stratospheric aerosol content due to volcanic eruptions, understanding of the energy balance of the Earth system means
together with the small solar irradiance variations, result in a that quite simple models can provide a broad quantitative
net negative natural radiative forcing over the past two, and estimate of some globally averaged variables, but more accurate
possibly even the past four, decades. estimates of feedbacks and of regional detail can only come from
more elaborate climate models. The complexity of the processes
C . 6 G l o b a l Wa r m i n g Po t e n t i a l s in the climate system prevents the use of extrapolation of past
trends or statistical and other purely empirical techniques for
Radiative forcings and Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are projections. Climate models can be used to simulate the climate
presented in Table 3 for an expanded set of gases. GWPs are a responses to different input scenarios of future forcing agents
measure of the relative radiative effect of a given substance (Section F). Similarly, projection of the fate of emitted CO2 (i.e.,
compared to CO2, integrated over a chosen time horizon. New the relative sequestration into the various reservoirs) and other
categories of gases in Table 3 include fluorinated organic greenhouse gases requires an understanding of the biogeo-
molecules, many of which are ethers that are proposed as chemical processes involved and incorporating these into a
halocarbon substitutes. Some of the GWPs have larger numerical carbon cycle model.
uncertainties than that of others, particularly for those gases
where detailed laboratory data on lifetimes are not yet A climate model is a simplified mathematical representation of
available. The direct GWPs have been calculated relative to the Earth’s climate system (see Box 3). The degree to which the
CO2 using an improved calculation of the CO2 radiative model can simulate the responses of the climate system hinges to
forcing, the SAR response function for a CO2 pulse, and new a very large degree on the level of understanding of the physical,
values for the radiative forcing and lifetimes for a number of geophysical, chemical and biological processes that govern the
halocarbons. Indirect GWPs, resulting from indirect radiative climate system. Since the SAR, researchers have made
forcing effects, are also estimated for some new gases, substantial improvements in the simulation of the Earth’s climate
including carbon monoxide. The direct GWPs for those species system with models. First, the current understanding of some of
whose lifetimes are well characterised are estimated to be the most important processes that govern the climate system and
accurate within ±35%, but the indirect GWPs are less certain. how well they are represented in present climate models are
summarised here. Then, this Section presents an assessment of
the overall ability of present models to make useful projections
of future climate.
D.1 Climate Processes and Feedbacks

Processes in the climate system determine the natural
variability of the climate system and its response to perturbations,
such as the increase in the atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases. Many basic climate processes of importance
are well-known and modelled exceedingly well. Feedback
processes amplify (a positive feedback) or reduce (a negative
46
Table 3: Direct Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) relative to carbon dioxide (for gases for which the lifetimes have been adequately characterised).
GWPs are an index for estimating relative global warming contribution due to atmospheric emission of a kg of a particular greenhouse gas compared
to emission of a kg of carbon dioxide. GWPs calculated for different time horizons show the effects of atmospheric lifetimes of the different gases.
[Based upon Table 6.7]
Gas Lifetime Global Warming Potential

(years) (Time Horizon in years)
20 yrs 100 yrs 500 yrs
Carbon dioxide CO2 1 1 1
Methanea CH4 12.0b 62 23 7
Nitrous oxide N2 O 114 b 275 296 156
Hydrofluorocarbons
HFC-23 CHF3 260 9400 12000 10000
HFC-32 CH2F2 5.0 1800 550 170
HFC-41 CH3F 2.6 330 97 30
HFC-125 CHF2CF3 29 5900 3400 1100
HFC-134 CHF2CHF2 9.6 3200 1100 330
HFC-134a CH2FCF3 13.8 3300 1300 400
HFC-143 CHF2CH2F 3.4 1100 330 100
HFC-143a CF3CH3 52 5500 4300 1600
HFC-152 CH2FCH2F 0.5 140 43 13
HFC-152a CH3CHF2 1.4 410 120 37
HFC-161 CH3CH2F 0.3 40 12 4
HFC-227ea CF3CHFCF3 33 5600 3500 1100
HFC-236cb CH2FCF2CF3 13.2 3300 1300 390
HFC-236ea CHF2CHFCF3 10 3600 1200 390
HFC-236fa CF3CH2CF3 220 7500 9400 7100
HFC-245ca CH2FCF2CHF2 5.9 2100 640 200
HFC-245fa CHF2CH2CF3 7.2 3000 950 300
HFC-365mfc CF3CH2CF2CH3 9.9 2600 890 280
HFC-43-10mee CF3CHFCHFCF2CF3 15 3700 1500 470
Fully fluorinated species
SF6 3200 15100 22200 32400
CF4 50000 3900 5700 8900
C2F6 10000 8000 11900 18000
C3F8 2600 5900 8600 12400
C4F10 2600 5900 8600 12400
c-C4F8 3200 6800 10000 14500
C5F12 4100 6000 8900 13200
C6F14 3200 6100 9000 13200
Ethers and Halogenated Ethers
CH3OCH3 0.015 1 1 <<1
HFE-125 CF3OCHF2 150 12900 14900 9200
HFE-134 CHF2OCHF2 26.2 10500 6100 2000
HFE-143a CH3OCF3 4.4 2500 750 230
HCFE-235da2 CF3CHClOCHF2 2.6 1100 340 110
HFE-245fa2 CF3CH2OCHF2 4.4 1900 570 180
HFE-254cb2 CHF2CF2OCH3 0.22 99 30 9
HFE-7100 C4F9OCH3 5.0 1300 390 120
HFE-7200 C4F9OC2H5 0.77 190 55 17
H-Galden 1040x CHF2OCF2OC2F4OCHF2 6.3 5900 1800 560
HG-10 CHF2OCF2OCHF2 12.1 7500 2700 850
HG-01 CHF2OCF2CF2OCHF2 6.2 4700 1500 450
a
The methane GWPs include an indirect contribution from stratospheric H2O and O3 production.
b
The values for methane and nitrous oxide are adjustment times, which incorporate the indirect effects of emission of each gas on its own lifetime.
47
B ox 3 : C l i m a t e M o d e l s : H ow
a r e t h ey bu i l t a n d h ow a r e t h ey The Development of Climate models, Past, Present and Future
applied?
Mid-1970s Mid-1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Present day Early 2000s?
Comprehensive climate models are
Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere
based on physical laws represented by
mathematical equations that are solved Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface
using a three-dimensional grid over the Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice
globe. For climate simulation, the Sulphate Sulphate Sulphate

aerosol aerosol aerosol
major components of the climate Non-sulphate Non-sulphate
aerosol aerosol
system must be represented in sub-
Carbon cycle Carbon cycle
models (atmosphere, ocean, land
surface, cryosphere and biosphere), Dynamic
vegetation
along with the processes that go on Atmospheric
chemistry
within and between them. Most results Ocean & sea-ice Sulphur
cycle model
Non-sulphate
model aerosols
in this report are derived from the
Land carbon
results of models, which include some cycle model
Carbon
cycle model
representation of all these components. Ocean carbon
cycle model
Global climate models in which the Dynamic Dynamic
vegetation vegetation
atmosphere and ocean components have
been coupled together are also known Atmospheric
chemistry
Atmospheric
chemistry
Atmospheric
chemistry
as Atmosphere-Ocean General
Circulation Models (AOGCMs). In the Box 3, Figure 1: The development of climate models over the last 25 years showing how the
atmospheric module, for example, different components are first developed separately and later coupled into comprehensive
equations are solved that describe the climate models.
large-scale evolution of momentum,
heat and moisture. Similar equations
are solved for the ocean. Currently, the physically based relationships with the have been incorporated to represent the
resolution of the atmospheric part of a larger-scale variables. This technique is emissions of sulphur and how they are
typical model is about 250 km in the known as parametrization. oxidised to form aerosol particles.
horizontal and about 1 km in the Currently in progress, in a few models,
In order to make quantitative
vertical above the boundary layer. The is the coupling of the land carbon cycle
projections of future climate change, it
resolution of a typical ocean model is and the ocean carbon cycle. The
is necessary to use climate models that
about 200 to 400 m in the vertical, with atmospheric chemistry component
simulate all the important processes
a horizontal resolution of about 125 to currently is modelled outside the main
governing the future evolution of the
250 km. Equations are typically solved climate model. The ultimate aim is, of
climate. Climate models have
for every half hour of a model course, to model as much as possible of
developed over the past few decades as
integration. Many physical processes, the whole of the Earth’s climate system
computing power has increased. During
such as those related to clouds or ocean so that all the components can interact
that time, models of the main
convection, take place on much smaller and, thus, the predictions of climate
components, atmosphere, land, ocean
spatial scales than the model grid and change will continuously take into
and sea ice have been developed
therefore cannot be modelled and account the effect of feedbacks among
separately and then gradually
resolved explicitly. Their average components. The Figure above shows
integrated. This coupling of the various
effects are approximately included in a the past, present and possible future
components is a difficult process. Most
simple way by taking advantage of evolution of climate models.
recently, sulphur cycle components
48
feedback) changes in response to an initial perturbation and
Some models offset errors and surface flux imbalances hence are very important for accurate simulation of the
through “flux adjustments”, which are empirically evolution of climate.
determined systematic adjustments at the atmosphere-
ocean interface held fixed in time in order to bring the Water vapour
simulated climate closer to the observed state. A strategy A major feedback accounting for the large warming predicted by
has been designed for carrying out climate experiments climate models in response to an increase in CO2 is the increase
that removes much of the effects of some model errors on in atmospheric water vapour. An increase in the temperature of
results. What is often done is that first a “control” climate the atmosphere increases its water-holding capacity; however,
simulation is run with the model. Then, the climate since most of the atmosphere is undersaturated, this does not
change experiment simulation is run, for example, with automatically mean that water vapour, itself, must increase.
increased CO2 in the model atmosphere. Finally, the Within the boundary layer (roughly the lowest 1 to 2 km of the
difference is taken to provide an estimate of the change in atmosphere), water vapour increases with increasing temperature.
climate due to the perturbation. The differencing In the free troposphere above the boundary layer, where the
technique removes most of the effects of any artificial water vapour greenhouse effect is most important, the situation is
adjustments in the model, as well as systematic errors that harder to quantify. Water vapour feedback, as derived from
are common to both runs. However, a comparison of current models, approximately doubles the warming from what it
different model results makes it apparent that the nature would be for fixed water vapour. Since the SAR, major
of some errors still influences the outcome. improvements have occurred in the treatment of water vapour in
models, although detrainment of moisture from clouds remains
Many aspects of the Earth’s climate system are chaotic – quite uncertain and discrepancies exist between model water
its evolution is sensitive to small perturbations in initial vapour distributions and those observed. Models are capable of
conditions. This sensitivity limits predictability of the simulating the moist and very dry regions observed in the tropics
detailed evolution of weather to about two weeks. and sub-tropics and how they evolve with the seasons and from
However, predictability of climate is not so limited year to year. While reassuring, this does not provide a check of
because of the systematic influences on the atmosphere of the feedbacks, although the balance of evidence favours a
the more slowly varying components of the climate positive clear-sky water vapour feedback of the magnitude
system. Nevertheless, to be able to make reliable forecasts comparable to that found in simulations.
in the presence of both initial condition and model
uncertainty, it is desirable to repeat the prediction many Clouds
times from different perturbed initial states and using As has been the case since the first IPCC Assessment Report in
different global models. These ensembles are the basis of 1990, probably the greatest uncertainty in future projections of
probability forecasts of the climate state. climate arises from clouds and their interactions with radiation.
Clouds can both absorb and reflect solar radiation (thereby
Comprehensive AOGCMs are very complex and take
cooling the surface) and absorb and emit long wave radiation
large computer resources to run. To explore different
(thereby warming the surface). The competition between these
scenarios of emissions of greenhouse gases and the
effects depends on cloud height, thickness and radiative
effects of assumptions or approximations in parameters in
properties. The radiative properties and evolution of clouds
the model more thoroughly, simpler models are also
depend on the distribution of atmospheric water vapour, water
widely used. The simplifications may include coarser
drops, ice particles, atmospheric aerosols and cloud thickness.
resolution and simplified dynamics and physical
The physical basis of cloud parametrizations is greatly improved
processes. Together, simple, intermediate, and compre-
in models through inclusion of bulk representation of cloud
hensive models form a “hierarchy of climate models”, all
microphysical properties in a cloud water budget equation,
of which are necessary to explore choices made in
although considerable uncertainty remains. Clouds represent a
parametrizations and assess the robustness of climate
significant source of potential error in climate simulations. The
changes.
possibility that models underestimate systematically solar
49
absorption in clouds remains a controversial matter. The sign of still exist with the representation of small-scale processes, such
the net cloud feedback is still a matter of uncertainty, and the as overflows (flow through narrow channels, e.g., between
various models exhibit a large spread. Further uncertainties arise Greenland and Iceland), western boundary currents (i.e., large-
from precipitation processes and the difficulty in correctly scale narrow currents along coastlines), convection and mixing.
simulating the diurnal cycle and precipitation amounts and Boundary currents in climate simulations are weaker and wider
frequencies. than in nature, although the consequences of this for climate
are not clear.
Stratosphere
There has been a growing appreciation of the importance of Cryosphere
the stratosphere in the climate system because of changes in The representation of sea-ice processes continues to improve,
its structure and recognition of the vital role of both radiative with several climate models now incorporating physically based
and dynamical processes. The vertical profile of temperature treatments of ice dynamics. The representation of land-ice
change in the atmosphere, including the stratosphere, is an processes in global climate models remains rudimentary. The
important indicator in detection and attribution studies. Most cryosphere consists of those regions of Earth that are seasonally
of the observed decreases in lower-stratospheric temperatures or perennially covered by snow and ice. Sea ice is important
have been due to ozone decreases, of which the Antarctic because it reflects more incoming solar radiation than the sea
“ozone hole” is a part, rather than increased CO2 concen- surface (i.e., it has a higher albedo), and it insulates the sea from
trations. Waves generated in the troposphere can propagate heat loss during the winter. Therefore, reduction of sea ice gives
into the stratosphere where they are absorbed. As a result, a positive feedback on climate warming at high latitudes.
stratospheric changes alter where and how these waves are Furthermore, because sea ice contains less salt than sea water,
absorbed, and the effects can extend downward into the when sea ice is formed the salt content (salinity) and density of
troposphere. Changes in solar irradiance, mainly in the the surface layer of the ocean is increased. This promotes an
ultraviolet (UV), lead to photochemically-induced ozone exchange of water with deeper layers of the ocean, affecting
changes and, hence, alter the stratospheric heating rates, which ocean circulation. The formation of icebergs and the melting of
can alter the tropospheric circulation. Limitations in resolution ice shelves returns fresh water from the land to the ocean, so that
and relatively poor representation of some stratospheric changes in the rates of these processes could affect ocean
processes adds uncertainty to model results. circulation by changing the surface salinity. Snow has a higher
albedo than the land surface; hence, reductions in snow cover
Ocean
lead to a similar positive albedo feedback, although weaker than
Major improvements have taken place in modelling ocean
for sea ice. Increasingly complex snow schemes and sub-grid
processes, in particular heat transport. These improvements, in
scale variability in ice cover and thickness, which can signifi-
conjunction with an increase in resolution, have been
cantly influence albedo and atmosphere-ocean exchanges, are
important in reducing the need for flux adjustment in models
being introduced in some climate models.
and in producing realistic simulations of natural large-scale
circulation patterns and improvements in simulating El Niño Land surface
(see Box 4). Ocean currents carry heat from the tropics to Research with models containing the latest representations of
higher latitudes. The ocean exchanges heat, water (through the land surface indicates that the direct effects of increased
evaporation and precipitation) and CO2 with the atmosphere. CO2 on the physiology of plants could lead to a relative
Because of its huge mass and high heat capacity, the ocean reduction in evapotranspiration over the tropical continents,
slows climate change and influences the time-scales of with associated regional warming and drying over that
variability in the ocean-atmosphere system. Considerable predicted for conventional greenhouse warming effects. Land
progress has been made in the understanding of ocean surface changes provide important feedbacks as anthropogenic
processes relevant for climate change. Increases in resolution, climate changes (e.g., increased temperature, changes in precipi-
as well as improved representation (parametrization) of tation, changes in net radiative heating, and the direct effects of
important sub-grid scale processes (e.g., mesoscale eddies), CO2) will influence the state of the land surface (e.g., soil
have increased the realism of simulations. Major uncertainties moisture, albedo, roughness and vegetation). Exchanges of
50
energy, momentum, water, heat and carbon between the land concentrations. Process-based models of the ocean and land
surface and the atmosphere can be defined in models as carbon cycles (including representations of physical, chemical
functions of the type and density of the local vegetation and the and biological processes) have been developed and evaluated
depth and physical properties of the soil, all based on land- against measurements pertinent to the natural carbon cycle. Such
surface data bases that have been improved using satellite models have also been set up to mimic the human perturbation
observations. Recent advances in the understanding of of the carbon cycle and have been able to generate time-series of
vegetation photosynthesis and water use have been used to ocean and land carbon uptake that are broadly consistent with
couple the terrestrial energy, water and carbon cycles within a observed global trends. There are still substantial differences
new generation of land surface parametrizations, which have among models, especially in how they treat the physical ocean
been tested against field observations and implemented in a few circulation and in regional responses of terrestrial ecosystem
GCMs, with demonstrable improvements in the simulation of processes to climate. Nevertheless, current models consistently
land-atmosphere fluxes. However, significant problems remain indicate that when the effects of climate change are considered,
to be solved in the areas of soil moisture processes, runoff CO2 uptake by oceans and land becomes smaller.
prediction, land-use change and the treatment of snow and sub-
grid scale heterogeneity.
D.2 The Coupled Systems
Changes in land-surface cover can affect global climate in
As noted in Section D.1, many feedbacks operate within the
several ways. Large-scale deforestation in the humid tropics
individual components of the climate system (atmosphere, ocean,
(e.g., South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia) has been
cryosphere and land surface). However, many important
identified as the most important ongoing land-surface process,
processes and feedbacks occur through the coupling of the
because it reduces evaporation and increases surface temperature.
climate system components. Their representation is important to
These effects are qualitatively reproduced by most models.
the prediction of large-scale responses.
However, large uncertainties still persist on the quantitative
impact of large-scale deforestation on the hydrological cycle, Modes of natural variability
particularly over Amazonia. There is an increasing realisation that natural circulation
patterns, such as ENSO and NAO, play a fundamental role in
Carbon cycle
global climate and its interannual and longer-term variability.
Recent improvements in process-based terrestrial and ocean
The strongest natural fluctuation of climate on interannual time-
carbon cycle models and their evaluation against observations
scales is the ENSO phenomenon (see Box 4). It is an inherently
have given more confidence in their use for future scenario
coupled atmosphere-ocean mode with its core activity in the
studies. CO2 naturally cycles rapidly among the atmosphere,
tropical Pacific, but with important regional climate impacts
oceans and land. However, the removal of the CO2 perturbation
throughout the world. Global climate models are only now
added by human activities from the atmosphere takes far longer.
beginning to exhibit variability in the tropical Pacific that
This is because of processes that limit the rate at which ocean
resembles ENSO, mainly through increased meridional
and terrestrial carbon stocks can increase. Anthropogenic CO2 is
resolution at the equator. Patterns of sea surface temperature and
taken up by the ocean because of its high solubility (caused by
atmospheric circulation similar to those occurring during ENSO
the nature of carbonate chemistry), but the rate of uptake is
on interannual time-scales also occur on decadal and longer
limited by the finite speed of vertical mixing. Anthropogenic
time-scales.
CO2 is taken up by terrestrial ecosystems through several
possible mechanisms, for example, land management, CO2 fertil- The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant pattern of
isation (the enhancement of plant growth as a result of increased northern wintertime atmospheric circulation variability and is
atmospheric CO2 concentration) and increasing anthropogenic increasingly being simulated realistically. The NAO is closely
inputs of nitrogen. This uptake is limited by the relatively small related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which has an additional
fraction of plant carbon that can enter long-term storage (wood annular component around the Arctic. There is strong evidence
and humus). The fraction of emitted CO2 that can be taken up by that the NAO arises mainly from internal atmospheric processes
the oceans and land is expected to decline with increasing CO2 involving the entire troposphere-stratosphere system.
51
B ox 4 : T h e E l N i ñ o - S o u t h e r n A distinctive pattern of sea surface During El Niño, the warm waters from
Oscillation (ENSO) temperatures in the Pacific Ocean sets the western tropical Pacific migrate
The strongest natural fluctuation of the stage for ENSO events. Key eastward as the trade winds weaken,
climate on interannual time-scales is the features are the “warm pool” in the shifting the pattern of tropical
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tropical western Pacific, where the rainstorms, further weakening the
phenomenon. The term “El Niño” warmest ocean waters in the world trade winds, and thus reinforcing the
originally applied to an annual weak reside, much colder waters in the changes in sea temperatures. Sea level
warm ocean current that ran southwards eastern Pacific, and a cold tongue drops in the west, but rises in the east
along the coast of Peru about along the equator that is most by as much as 0.25 m, as warm waters
Christmas-time and only subsequently pronounced about October and surge eastward along the equator.
became associated with the unusually weakest in March. The atmospheric However, the changes in atmospheric
large warmings. The coastal warming, easterly trade winds in the tropics pile circulation are not confined to the
however, is often associated with a up the warm waters in the west, tropics, but extend globally and
much more extensive anomalous ocean producing an upward slope of sea level influence the jet streams and storm
warming to the International Dateline, along the equator of 0.60 m from east tracks in mid-latitudes. Approximately
and it is this Pacific basinwide to west. The winds drive the surface reverse patterns occur during the
phenomenon that forms the link with ocean currents, which determine where opposite La Niña phase of the
the anomalous global climate patterns. the surface waters flow and diverge. phenomenon.
The atmospheric component tied to “El Thus, cooler nutrient-rich waters
Changes associated with ENSO
Niño” is termed the “Southern upwell from below along the equator
produce large variations in weather
Oscillation”. Scientists often call this and western coasts of the Americas,
and climate around the world from
phenomenon, where the atmosphere favouring development of
year to year. These often have a
and ocean collaborate together, ENSO phytoplankton, zooplankton, and hence
profound impact on humanity and
(El Niño-Southern Oscillation). fish. Because convection and thunder-
society because of associated
storms preferentially occur over
ENSO is a natural phenomenon, and droughts, floods, heat waves and other
warmer waters, the pattern of sea
there is good evidence from cores of changes that can severely disrupt
surface temperatures determines the
coral and glacial ice in the Andes that it agriculture, fisheries, the environment,
distribution of rainfall in the tropics,
has been going on for millennia. The health, energy demand, air quality and
and this in turn determines the
ocean and atmospheric conditions in the also change the risks of fire. ENSO
atmospheric heating patterns through
tropical Pacific are seldom average, but also plays a prominent role in
the release of latent heat. The heating
instead fluctuate somewhat irregularly modulating exchanges of CO2 with the
drives the large-scale monsoonal-type
between El Niño events and the opposite atmosphere. The normal upwelling of
circulations in the tropics, and
“La Niña” phase, consisting of a cold nutrient-rich and CO2-rich waters
consequently determines the winds.
basinwide cooling of the tropical Pacific, in the tropical Pacific is suppressed
This strong coupling between the
with a preferred period of about three to during El Niño.
atmosphere and ocean in the tropics
six years. The most intense phase of
gives rise to the El Niño phenomenon.
each event usually lasts about a year.
Fluctuations in Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are evidenced by the observed trend toward positive values for the
related to the strength of the NAO, and a modest two-way last 30 years in the NAO index and the climate “shift” in the
interaction between the NAO and the Atlantic Ocean, leading to tropical Pacific about 1976. While coupled models simulate
decadal variability, is emerging as important in projecting features of observed natural climate variability, such as the
climate change. NAO and ENSO, which suggests that many of the relevant
processes are included in the models, further progress is
Climate change may manifest itself both as shifting means, as
needed to depict these natural modes accurately. Moreover,
well as changing preference of specific climate regimes, as
52
because ENSO and NAO are key determinants of regional demonstrated with a hierarchy of models. It is not yet clear
climate change and can possibly result in abrupt and counter what this threshold is and how likely it is that human activity
intuitive changes, there has been an increase in uncertainty in would lead it to being exceeded (see Section F.6). Atmospheric
those aspects of climate change that critically depend on circulation can be characterised by different preferred patterns;
regional changes. e.g., arising from ENSO and the NAO/AO, and changes in their
phase can occur rapidly. Basic theory and models suggest that
The thermohaline circulation (THC)
climate change may be first expressed in changes in the
The thermohaline circulation (THC) is responsible for the major
frequency of occurrence of these patterns. Changes in
part of the meridional heat transport in the Atlantic Ocean. The
vegetation, through either direct anthropogenic deforestation or
THC is a global-scale overturning in the ocean driven by density
those caused by global warming, could occur rapidly and could
differences arising from temperature and salinity effects. In the
induce further climate change. It is supposed that the rapid
Atlantic, heat is transported by warm surface waters flowing
creation of the Sahara about 5,500 years ago represents an
northward and cold saline waters from the North Atlantic
example of such a non-linear change in land cover.
returning at depth. Reorganisations in the Atlantic THC can be
triggered by perturbations in the surface buoyancy, which is
influenced by precipitation, evaporation, continental runoff, sea- D.3 Regionalisation Techniques
ice formation, and the exchange of heat, processes that could all Regional climate information was only addressed to a limited
change with consequences for regional and global climate. degree in the SAR. Techniques used to enhance regional detail
Interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean are also have been substantially improved since the SAR and have
likely to be of considerable importance on decadal and longer become more widely applied. They fall into three categories:
time-scales, where the THC is involved. The interplay between high and variable resolution AOGCMs; regional (or nested
the large-scale atmospheric forcing, with warming and limited area) climate models (RCMs); and
evaporation in low latitudes and cooling and increased precipi- empirical/statistical and statistical/dynamical methods. The
tation at high latitudes, forms the basis of a potential instability techniques exhibit different strengths and weaknesses and
of the present Atlantic THC. ENSO may also influence the their use at the continental scale strongly depends on the
Atlantic THC by altering the fresh water balance of the tropical needs of specific applications.
Atlantic, therefore providing a coupling between low and high
Coarse resolution AOGCMs simulate atmospheric general
latitudes. Uncertainties in the representation of small-scale flows
circulation features well in general. At the regional scale, the
over sills and through narrow straits and of ocean convection
models display area-average biases that are highly variable
limit the ability of models to simulate situations involving
from region to region and among models, with sub-
substantial changes in the THC. The less saline North Pacific
continental area averaged seasonal temperature biases
means that a deep THC does not occur in the Pacific.
typically ±4ºC and precipitation biases between −40 and
Non-linear events and rapid climate change +80%. These represent an important improvement compared
The possibility for rapid and irreversible changes in the climate to AOGCMs evaluated in the SAR.
system exists, but there is a large degree of uncertainty about
The development of high resolution/variable resolution
the mechanisms involved and hence also about the likelihood
Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) since the
or time-scales of such transitions. The climate system involves
SAR generally shows that the dynamics and large-scale flow
many processes and feedbacks that interact in complex non-
in the models improves as resolution increases. In some
linear ways. This interaction can give rise to thresholds in the
cases, however, systematic errors are worsened compared to
climate system that can be crossed if the system is perturbed
coarser resolution models, although only very few results
sufficiently. There is evidence from polar ice cores suggesting
have been documented.
that atmospheric regimes can change within a few years and
that large-scale hemispheric changes can evolve as fast as a few High resolution RCMs have matured considerably since the SAR.
decades. For example, the possibility of a threshold for a rapid Regional models consistently improve the spatial detail of
transition of the Atlantic THC to a collapsed state has been simulated climate compared to AGCMs. RCMs driven by
53
observed boundary conditions evidence area-averaged Climate of the 20th century
temperature biases (regional scales of 105 to 106 km2) generally Confidence in the ability of models to project future climates is
below 2ºC, while precipitation biases are below 50%. increased by the ability of several models to reproduce
Regionalisation work indicates at finer scales that the changes warming trends in the 20th century surface air temperature
can be substantially different in magnitude or sign from the when driven by increased greenhouse gases and sulphate
large area-average results. A relatively large spread exists aerosols. This is illustrated in Figure 13. However, only
among models, although attribution of the cause of these idealized scenarios of sulphate aerosols have been used and
differences is unclear. contributions from some additional processes and forcings
may not have been included in the models. Some modelling
D.4 Overall Assessment of Abilities studies suggest that inclusion of additional forcings like solar
variability and volcanic aerosols may improve some aspects of
Coupled models have evolved and improved significantly since
the simulated climate variability of the 20th century.
the SAR. In general, they provide credible simulations of
climate, at least down to sub-continental scales and over Extreme events
temporal scales from seasonal to decadal. Coupled models, as Analysis of and confidence in extreme events simulated within
a class, are considered to be suitable tools to provide useful climate models are still emerging, particularly for storm tracks
projections of future climates. These models cannot yet and storm frequency. “Tropical-cyclone-like” vortices are
simulate all aspects of climate (e.g., they still cannot account being simulated in climate models, although enough
fully for the observed trend in the surface-troposphere uncertainty remains over their interpretation to warrant caution
temperature differences since 1979). Clouds and humidity also in projections of tropical cyclone changes. However, in
remain sources of significant uncertainty, but there have been general, the analysis of extreme events in both observations
incremental improvements in simulations of these quantities. (see Section B.6) and coupled models is underdeveloped.
No single model can be considered “best”, and it is important
to utilise results from a range of carefully evaluated coupled Observed and simulated global mean temperature
1.0
models to explore effects of different formulations. The
rationale for increased confidence in models arises from model 0.8
performance in the following areas.
0.6
Temperature anomaly (°C)
Flux adjustment
The overall confidence in model projections is increased by 0.4
run 2
the improved performance of several models that do not use run 3
0.2
flux adjustment. These models now maintain stable, multi-
century simulations of surface climate that are considered to
0
be of sufficient quality to allow their use for climate change
projections. The changes whereby many models can now run –0.2 run 1 Control
without flux adjustment have come from improvements in Observed
–0.4
both the atmospheric and oceanic components. In the model
atmosphere, improvements in convection, the boundary layer, 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Year
clouds, and surface latent heat fluxes are most notable. In the
model ocean, the improvements are in resolution, boundary Figure 13: Observed and modelled global annual mean temperature
layer mixing, and in the representation of eddies. The results anomalies (°C) relative to the average of the observations over the
from climate change studies with flux adjusted and non-flux period 1900 to 1930. The control and three independent simulations with
adjusted models are broadly in agreement; nonetheless, the the same greenhouse gas plus aerosol forcing and slightly different initial
development of stable non-flux adjusted models increases conditions are shown from an AOGCM. The three greenhouse gas plus
confidence in their ability to simulate future climates. aerosol simulations are labeled ‘run 1’, ‘run 2’, and ‘run 3’ respectively.
[Based on Figure 8.15]
54
Interannual variability E. The Identification of a Human
The performance of coupled models in simulating ENSO has Influence on Climate Change
improved; however, its variability is displaced westward and
its strength is generally underestimated. When suitably Sections B and C characterised the observed past changes in
initialised with surface wind and sub-surface ocean data, some climate and in forcing agents, respectively. Section D examined
coupled models have had a degree of success in predicting the capabilities of climate models to predict the response of the
ENSO events. climate system to such changes in forcing. This Section uses
Model intercomparisons that information to examine the question of whether a human
The growth in systematic intercomparisons of models provides influence on climate change to date can be identified.
the core evidence for the growing capabilities of climate This is an important point to address. The SAR concluded that
models. For example, the Coupled Model Intercomparison “the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible
Project (CMIP) is enabling a more comprehensive and human influence on global climate”. It noted that the detection
systematic evaluation and intercomparison of coupled models and attribution of anthropogenic climate change signals will be
run in a standardised configuration and responding to accomplished through a gradual accumulation of evidence. The
standardised forcing. Some degree of quantification of SAR also noted uncertainties in a number of factors, including
improvements in coupled model performance has now been internal variability and the magnitude and patterns of forcing
demonstrated. The Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison and response, which prevented them from drawing a stronger
Project (PMIP) provides intercomparisons of models for the conclusion.
mid-Holocene (6,000 years before present) and for the Last
Glacial Maximum (21,000 years before present). The ability of
E.1 The Meaning of Detection and
these models to simulate some aspects of palaeoclimates,
A t t r i bu t i o n
compared to a range of palaeoclimate proxy data, gives
confidence in models (at least the atmospheric component) Detection is the process of demonstrating that an observed
over a range of difference forcings. change is significantly different (in a statistical sense) than can
be explained by natural variability. Attribution is the process of
establishing cause and effect with some defined level of
confidence, including the assessment of competing hypotheses.
The response to anthropogenic changes in climate forcing occurs
against a backdrop of natural internal and externally forced
climate variability. Internal climate variability, i.e., climate
variability not forced by external agents, occurs on all time-scales
from weeks to centuries and even millennia. Slow climate
components, such as the ocean, have particularly important roles
on decadal and century time-scales because they integrate
weather variability. Thus, the climate is capable of producing
long time-scale variations of considerable magnitude without
external influences. Externally forced climate variations (signals)
may be due to changes in natural forcing factors, such as solar
radiation or volcanic aerosols, or to changes in anthropogenic
forcing factors, such as increasing concentrations of greenhouse
gases or aerosols. The presence of this natural climate variability
means that the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate
change is a statistical “signal to noise” problem. Detection
studies demonstrate whether or not an observed change is highly
unusual in a statistical sense, but this does not necessarily
55
imply that we understand its causes. The attribution of climate variability in these models. Estimates of the longer time-scale
change to anthropogenic causes involves statistical analysis variability relevant to detection and attribution studies is
and the careful assessment of multiple lines of evidence to uncertain, but, on interannual and decadal time-scales, some
demonstrate, within a pre-specified margin of error, that the models show similar or larger variability than observed, even
observed changes are: though models do not include variance from external sources.
Conclusions on detection of an anthropogenic signal are
● unlikely to be due entirely to internal variability;
insensitive to the model used to estimate internal variability,
● consistent with the estimated responses to the given and recent changes cannot be accounted for as pure internal
combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing; and variability, even if the amplitude of simulated internal
● not consistent with alternative, physically plausible variations is increased by a factor of two or perhaps more.
explanations of recent climate change that exclude Most recent detection and attribution studies find no evidence
important elements of the given combination of forcings. that model-estimated internal variability at the surface is
inconsistent with the residual variability that remains in the
observations after removal of the estimated anthropogenic
E . 2 A L o n g e r a n d M o r e C l o s e ly S c r u t i n i s e d
signals on the large spatial and long time-scales used in
O b s e r va t i o n a l R e c o rd
detection and attribution studies. Note, however, the ability to
Three of the last five years (1995, 1997 and 1998) were the detect inconsistencies is limited. As Figure 14 indicates, no
warmest globally in the instrumental record. The impact of model control simulation shows a trend in surface air
observational sampling errors has been estimated for the temperature as large as the observed trend over the last 1,000
global and hemispheric mean temperature record. There is also years.
a better understanding of the errors and uncertainties in the
satellite-based (Microwave Sounding Unit, MSU) temperature
record. Discrepancies between MSU and radiosonde data have
1850 1950
largely been resolved, although the observed trend in the 0.6 0.6
0.4 HadCM2 0.4
difference between the surface and lower tropospheric 0.2 0.2
temperatures cannot fully be accounted for (see Section B). 0.0 0.0
−0.2 −0.2
New reconstructions of temperature over the last 1,000 years −0.4 −0.4
0 200 400 600 800 1000
indicate that the temperature changes over the last hundred 1850 1950
0.6 0.6
years are unlikely to be entirely natural in origin, even taking 0.4 GFDL 0.4
into account the large uncertainties in palaeo-reconstructions 0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
(see Section B). −0.2 −0.2
−0.4 −0.4
0 200 400 600 800 1000
1850 1950
E.3 New Model Estimates of Internal Variability 0.6 0.6
0.4 HAM3L 0.4
The warming over the past 100 years is very unlikely to be 0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
due to internal variability alone, as estimated by current −0.2 −0.2
−0.4 −0.4
models. The instrumental record is short and covers the period 0 200 400 600 800 1000
Years
of human influence and palaeo-records include natural forced
variations, such as those due to variations in solar irradiance Figure 14: Global mean surface air temperature anomalies from 1,000
and in the frequency of major volcanic eruptions. These year control simulations with three different climate models, – Hadley,
limitations leave few alternatives to using long “control” Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hamburg, compared to
simulations with coupled models for the estimation of internal the recent instrumental record. No model control simulation shows a
climate variability. Since the SAR, more models have been trend in surface air temperature as large as the observed trend. If
used to estimate the magnitude of internal climate variability, internal variability is correct in these models, the recent warming is
a representative sample of which is given in Figure 14. As can likely not due to variability produced within the climate system alone.
be seen, there is a wide range of global scale internal [Based on Figure 12.1]
56
E . 4 N ew E s t i m a t e s o f R e s p o n s e s t o N a t u r a l greenhouse gases and some representation of aerosol effects
F o rc i n g have become available. Several studies have included an
explicit representation of greenhouse gases (as opposed to an
Assessments based on physical principles and model
equivalent increase in CO2). Some have also included tropos-
simulations indicate that natural forcing alone is unlikely to
pheric ozone changes, an interactive sulphur cycle, an explicit
explain the recent observed global warming or the observed
radiative treatment of the scattering of sulphate aerosols, and
changes in vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere.
improved estimates of the changes in stratospheric ozone.
Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere models have used
Overall, while detection of the climate response to these other
reconstructions of solar and volcanic forcings over the last one
anthropogenic factors is often ambiguous, detection of the
to three centuries to estimate the contribution of natural forcing
influence of greenhouse gases on the surface temperature
to climate variability and change. Although the reconstruction
changes over the past 50 years is robust. In some cases,
of natural forcings is uncertain, including their effects produces
ensembles of simulations have been run to reduce noise in the
an increase in variance at longer (multi-decadal) time-scales.
estimates of the time-dependent response. Some studies have
This brings the low-frequency variability closer to that deduced
evaluated seasonal variation of the response. Uncertainties in
from palaeo-reconstructions. It is likely that the net natural
the estimated climate change signals have made it difficult to
forcing (i.e., solar plus volcanic) has been negative over the
attribute the observed climate change to one specific
past two decades, and possibly even the past four decades.
combination of anthropogenic and natural influences, but all
Statistical assessments confirm that simulated natural
studies have found a significant anthropogenic contribution is
variability, both internal and naturally forced, is unlikely to
required to account for surface and tropospheric trends over at
explain the warming in the latter half of the 20th century (see
least the last thirty years.
Figure 15). However, there is evidence for a detectable volcanic
influence on climate and evidence that suggests a detectable
solar influence, especially in the early part of the 20th century. E . 6 A W i d e r R a n g e o f D e t e c t i o n Te c h n i q u e s
Even if the models underestimate the magnitude of the
Te m p e r a t u r e
response to solar or volcanic forcing, the spatial and temporal
patterns are such that these effects alone cannot explain the Evidence of a human influence on climate is obtained over a
observed temperature changes over the 20th century. substantially wider range of detection techniques. A major
advance since the SAR is the increase in the range of
techniques used and the evaluation of the degree to which the
E.5 Sensitivity to Estimates of Climate
results are independent of the assumptions made in applying
Change Signals
those techniques. There have been studies using pattern
There is a wide range of evidence of qualitative consistencies correlations, optimal detection studies using one or more fixed
between observed climate changes and model responses to patterns and time-varying patterns, and a number of other
anthropogenic forcing. Models and observations show techniques. The increase in the number of studies, breadth of
increasing global temperature, increasing land-ocean techniques, increased rigour in the assessment of the role of
temperature contrast, diminishing sea-ice extent, glacial anthropogenic forcing in climate, and the robustness of results
retreat, and increases in precipitation at high latitudes in the to the assumptions made using those techniques, has increased
Northern Hemisphere. Some qualitative inconsistencies the confidence in these aspects of detection and attribution.
remain, including the fact that models predict a faster rate of
Results are sensitive to the range of temporal and spatial scales
warming in the mid- to upper troposphere than is observed in
that are considered. Several decades of data are necessary to
either satellite or radiosonde tropospheric temperature records.
separate forced signals from internal variability. Idealised
All simulations with greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols studies have demonstrated that surface temperature changes are
that have been used in detection studies have found that a detectable only on scales in the order of 5,000 km. Such studies
significant anthropogenic contribution is required to account show that the level of agreement found between simulations
for surface and tropospheric trends over at least the last 30 and observations in pattern correlation studies is close to what
years. Since the SAR, more simulations with increases in one would expect in theory.
57
(a) (b)
NATURAL : Annual global mean temperatures ANTHROPOGENIC : Annual global mean temperatures
1.0 1.0
MODEL MODEL

OBSERVATIONS OBSERVATIONS
0.5 0.5
0.0 0.0
−0.5 −0.5
−1.0 −1.0
1850 1900 1950 2000 1850 1900 1950 2000
Year Year
(c)
ALL FORCINGS : Annual global mean temperatures
1.0
MODEL
OBSERVATIONS
0.5
0.0
−0.5
−1.0
1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Figure 15: Global mean surface temperature anomalies relative to the 1880 to 1920 mean from the instrumental record compared with ensembles
of four simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model forced (a) with solar and volcanic forcing only, (b) with anthropogenic forcing
including well mixed greenhouse gases, changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone and the direct and indirect effects of sulphate aerosols,
and (c) with all forcings, both natural and anthropogenic. The thick line shows the instrumental data while the thin lines show the individual model
simulations in the ensemble of four members. Note that the data are annual mean values. The model data are only sampled at the locations where
there are observations. The changes in sulphate aerosol are calculated interactively, and changes in tropospheric ozone were calculated offline
using a chemical transport model. Changes in cloud brightness (the first indirect effect of sulphate aerosols) were calculated by an off line
simulation and included in the model. The changes in stratospheric ozone were based on observations. The volcanic and solar forcing were based
on published combinations of measured and proxy data. The net anthropogenic forcing at 1990 was 1.0 Wm−2 including a net cooling of 1.0 Wm−2
due to sulphate aerosols. The net natural forcing for 1990 relative to 1860 was 0.5 Wm−2, and for 1992 was a net cooling of 2.0 Wm−2 due to
Mount Pinatubo. Other models forced with anthropogenic forcing give similar results to those shown in (b). [Based on Figure 12.7]
58
Most attribution studies find that, over the last 50 years, the The detection and attribution methods used should not be
estimated rate and magnitude of global warming due to sensitive to errors in the amplitude of the global mean
increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases alone are response to individual forcings. In the signal-estimation
comparable with or larger than the observed warming. methods used in this report, the amplitude of the signal is
Attribution studies address the question of “whether the estimated from the observations and not the amplitude of the
magnitude of the simulated response to a particular forcing simulated response. Hence the estimates are independent of
agent is consistent with observations”. The use of multi-signal those factors determining the simulated amplitude of the
techniques has enabled studies that discriminate between the response, such as the climate sensitivity of the model used. In
effects of different factors on climate. The inclusion of the addition, if the signal due to a given forcing is estimated
time dependence of signals has helped to distinguish between individually, the amplitude is largely independent of the
natural and anthropogenic forcings. As more response patterns magnitude of the forcing used to derive the response.
are included, the problem of degeneracy (different Uncertainty in the amplitude of the solar and indirect sulphate
combinations of patterns yielding near identical fits to the aerosol forcing should not affect the magnitude of the
observations) inevitably arises. Nevertheless, even with all the estimated signal.
major responses that have been included in the analysis, a
S e a l ev e l
distinct greenhouse gas signal remains detectable.
It is very likely that the 20th century warming has contributed
Furthermore, most model estimates that take into account both
significantly to the observed sea level rise, through thermal
greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols are consistent with
expansion of sea water and widespread loss of land ice.
observations over this period. The best agreement between
Within present uncertainties, observations and models are both
model simulations and observations over the last 140 years is
consistent with a lack of significant acceleration of sea level
found when both anthropogenic and natural factors are
rise during the 20th century.
included (see Figure 15). These results show that the forcings
included are sufficient to explain the observed changes, but do
not exclude the possibility that other forcings have also E.7 Remaining Uncertainties in Detection
contributed. Overall, the magnitude of the temperature a n d A t t r i bu t i o n
response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is Some progress has been made in reducing uncertainty, though
found to be consistent with observations on the scales many of the sources of uncertainty identified in the SAR still
considered (see Figure 16), but there remain discrepies exist. These include:
between modelled and observed response to other natural and
● Discrepancies between the vertical profile of temperature
anthropogenic factors.
change in the troposphere seen in observations and models.
Uncertainties in other forcings that have been included do not These have been reduced as more realistic forcing histories
prevent identification of the effect of anthropogenic have been used in models, although not fully resolved.
greenhouse gases over the last 50 years. The sulphate forcing, Also, the difference between observed surface and
while uncertain, is negative over this period. Changes in lower-tropospheric trends over the last two decades cannot
natural forcing during most of this period are also estimated to be fully reproduced by model simulations.
be negative. Detection of the influence of anthropogenic
● Large uncertainties in estimates of internal climate
greenhouse gases therefore cannot be eliminated either by the
variability from models and observations. Although as
uncertainty in sulphate aerosol forcing or because natural
noted above, these are unlikely (bordering on very unlikely)
forcing has not been included in all model simulations. Studies
to be large enough to nullify the claim that a detectable
that distinguish the separate responses to greenhouse gas,
climate change has taken place.
sulphate aerosol and natural forcing produce uncertain
estimates of the amplitude of the sulphate aerosol and natural ● Considerable uncertainty in the reconstructions of solar
signals, but almost all studies are nevertheless able to detect and volcanic forcing which are based on proxy or limited
the presence of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas signal in the observational data for all but the last two decades.
recent climate record. Detection of the influence of greenhouse gases on climate
59
(a)
Scaling required on model-simulated signals
2
G
GS GSIO GS GSI So S
1 GS GS GS GS G SIO
G G V
S
0
N
−1 So
2
30
2
2
3
M
M
M
M
PY
PY
LS
LS
R
C
C
C
C
L-
3/
3/
O
O
ad
ad
ad
ad
G
ad
FD
AM
4/
4/
AM
C
C
H
H
H
AM
AM
G
H
H
EC
EC
H
H
EC
EC
(b)
Estimated contributions to 20th century warming (°C/century)
2.0
1.5
G
1.0 G
0.5 G GS GSIO GS GSI GS GS GS

GS G
N So
0.0 S
So V
SIO S
−0.5
−1.0
2
30
2
2
3
M
M
M
M
PY
PY
LS
LS
R
C
C
C
C
L-
3/
3/
O
O
ad
ad
ad
ad
G
ad
FD
AM
4/
4/
AM
C
C
H
H
H
AM
AM
G
H
H
EC
EC
H
H
EC
EC
Figure 16: (a) Estimates of the “scaling factors” by which the amplitude of several model-simulated signals must be multiplied to reproduce
the corresponding changes in the observed record. The vertical bars indicate the 5 to 95% uncertainty range due to internal variability. A
range encompassing unity implies that this combination of forcing amplitude and model-simulated response is consistent with the
corresponding observed change, while a range encompassing zero implies that this model-simulated signal is not detectable. Signals are
defined as the ensemble mean response to external forcing expressed in large-scale (>5,000 km) near-surface temperatures over the 1946 to
1996 period relative to the 1896 to 1996 mean. The first entry (G) shows the scaling factor and 5 to 95% confidence interval obtained with the
assumption that the observations consist only of a response to greenhouse gases plus internal variability. The range is significantly less than
one (consistent with results from other models), meaning that models forced with greenhouse gases alone significantly over predict the
observed warming signal. The next eight entries show scaling factors for model-simulated responses to greenhouse and sulphate forcing
(GS), with two cases including indirect sulphate and tropospheric ozone forcing, one of these also including stratospheric ozone depletion
(GSI and GSIO, respectively). All but one (CGCM1) of these ranges is consistent with unity. Hence there is little evidence that models are
60
appears to be robust to possible amplification of the solar ● Large differences in the response of different models to the
forcing by ozone-solar or solar-cloud interactions, provided same forcing. These differences, which are often greater
these do not alter the pattern or time-dependence of the than the difference in response in the same model with and
response to solar forcing. Amplification of the solar signal without aerosol effects, highlight the large uncertainties in
by these processes, which are not yet included in models, climate change prediction and the need to quantify
remains speculative. uncertainty and reduce it through better observational data
sets and model improvement.
● Large uncertainties in anthropogenic forcing are associated
with the effects of aerosols. The effects of some anthro-
pogenic factors, including organic carbon, black carbon, E.8 Synopsis
biomass aerosols, and changes in land use, have not been In the light of new evidence and taking into account the
included in detection and attribution studies. Estimates of remaining uncertainties, most of the observed warming over
the size and geographic pattern of the effects of these the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in
forcings vary considerably, although individually their greenhouse gas concentrations.
global effects are estimated to be relatively small.
systematically over- or under predicting the amplitude of the observed response under the assumption that model-simulated GS signals and
internal variability are an adequate representation (i.e., that natural forcing has had little net impact on this diagnostic). Observed residual
variability is consistent with this assumption in all but one case (ECHAM3, indicated by the asterisk). One is obliged to make this assumption
to include models for which only a simulation of the anthropogenic response is available, but uncertainty estimates in these single signal
cases are incomplete since they do not account for uncertainty in the naturally forced response. These ranges indicate, however, the high
level of confidence with which internal variability, as simulated by these various models, can be rejected as an explanation of recent near-
surface temperature change. A more complete uncertainty analysis is provided by the next three entries, which show corresponding scaling
factors on individual greenhouse (G), sulphate (S), solar-plus-volcanic (N), solar-only (So) and volcanic-only (V) signals for those cases in
which the relevant simulations have been performed. In these cases, multiple factors are estimated simultaneously to account for uncertainty
in the amplitude of the naturally forced response. The uncertainties increase but the greenhouse signal remains consistently detectable. In
one case (ECHAM3) the model appears to be overestimating the greenhouse response (scaling range in the G signal inconsistent with unity),
but this result is sensitive to which component of the control is used to define the detection space. It is also not known how it would respond
to the inclusion of a volcanic signal. In cases where both solar and volcanic forcing is included (HadCM2 and HadCM3), G and S signals
remain detectable and consistent with unity independent of whether natural signals are estimated jointly or separately (allowing for different
errors in S and V responses).
(b) Estimated contributions to global mean warming over the 20th century, based on the results shown in (a), with 5 to 95% confidence
intervals. Although the estimates vary depending on which model's signal and what forcing is assumed, and are less certain if more than one
signal is estimated, all show a significant contribution from anthropogenic climate change to 20th century warming. [Based on Figure 12.12]
61
F. T h e P ro j e c t i o n s o f t h e E a r t h ’s demographic change, social and economic development,
Future Climate technological change, resource use, and pollution
management. This influence is broadly reflected in the
The tools of climate models are used with future scenarios of storylines and resulting scenarios.
forcing agents (e.g., greenhouse gases and aerosols) as input Since the SRES was not approved until 15 March 2000, it
to make a suite of projected future climate changes that was too late for the modelling community to incorporate the
illustrates the possibilities that could lie ahead. Section F.1 final approved scenarios in their models and have the results
provides a description of the future scenarios of forcing available in time for this Third Assessment Report. However,
agents given in the IPCC Special Report on Emission draft scenarios were released to climate modellers earlier to
Scenarios (SRES) on which, wherever possible, the future facilitate their input to the Third Assessment Report, in
changes presented in this section are based. Sections F.2 to accordance with a decision of the IPCC Bureau in 1998. At
F.9 present the resulting projections of changes to the future that time, one marker scenario was chosen from each of four
climate. Finally, Section F.10 presents the results of future of the scenario groups based directly on the storylines (A1B,
projections based on scenarios of a future where greenhouse A2, B1, and B2). The choice of the markers was based on
gas concentrations are stabilised. which of the initial quantifications best reflected the storyline
and features of specific models. Marker scenarios are no
F.1 The IPCC Special Report on Emissions more or less likely than any other scenarios, but are
Scenarios (SRES) considered illustrative of a particular storyline. Scenarios
were also selected later to illustrate the other two scenario
In 1996, the IPCC began the development of a new set of
groups (A1FI and A1T) within the A1 family, which specif-
emissions scenarios, effectively to update and replace the
ically explore alternative technology developments, holding
well-known IS92 scenarios. The approved new set of
the other driving forces constant. Hence there is an
scenarios is described in the IPCC Special Report on
illustrative scenario for each of the six scenario groups, and
Emission Scenarios (SRES). Four different narrative
all are equally plausible. Since the latter two illustrative
storylines were developed to describe consistently the
scenarios were selected at a late stage in the process, the
relationships between the forces driving emissions and their
AOGCM modelling results presented in this report only use
evolution and to add context for the scenario quantification.
two of the four draft marker scenarios. At present, only
The resulting set of 40 scenarios (35 of which contain data
scenarios A2 and B2 have been integrated by more than one
on the full range of gases required to force climate models)
AOGCM. The AOGCM results have been augmented by
cover a wide range of the main demographic, economic and
results from simple climate models that cover all six
technological driving forces of future greenhouse gas and
illustrative scenarios. The IS92a scenario is also presented in
sulphur emissions. Each scenario represents a specific
a number of cases to provide direct comparison with the
quantification of one of the four storylines. All the scenarios
results presented in the SAR.
based on the same storyline constitute a scenario “family”
(See Box 5, which briefly describes the main characteristics The final four marker scenarios contained in the SRES differ
of the four SRES storylines and scenario families). The in minor ways from the draft scenarios used for the AOGCM
SRES scenarios do not include additional climate initiatives, experiments described in this report. In order to ascertain the
which means that no scenarios are included that explicitly likely effect of differences in the draft and final SRES
assume implementation of the United Nations Framework scenarios, each of the four draft and final marker scenarios
Convention on Climate Change or the emissions targets of were studied using a simple climate model. For three of the
the Kyoto Protocol. However, greenhouse gas emissions are four marker scenarios (A1B, A2, and B2) temperature
directly affected by non-climate change policies designed for change from the draft and marker scenarios are very similar.
a wide range of other purposes (e.g., air quality). The primary difference is a change to the standardised
Furthermore, government policies can, to varying degrees, values for 1990 to 2000, which is common to all these
influence the greenhouse gas emission drivers, such as scenarios. This results in a higher forcing early in the period.
62
B ox 5 : T h e E m i s s i o n s defined as not relying too heavily on structures toward a service and
Scenarios of the Special one particular energy source, on the information economy, with reductions
Report on Emissions assumption that similar improvement in material intensity and the
Scenarios (SRES) rates apply to all energy supply and introduction of clean and resource-
A1. The A1 storyline and scenario end-use technologies). efficient technologies. The emphasis is
family describes a future world of very on global solutions to economic, social
rapid economic growth, global A2. The A2 storyline and scenario
and environmental sustainability,
population that peaks in mid-century family describes a very heterogeneous
including improved equity, but without
and declines thereafter, and the rapid world. The underlying theme is self-
additional climate initiatives.
introduction of new and more efficient reliance and preservation of local
technologies. Major underlying themes identities. Fertility patterns across B2. The B2 storyline and scenario
are convergence among regions, regions converge very slowly, which family describes a world in which the
capacity building and increased results in continuously increasing emphasis is on local solutions to
cultural and social interactions, with a population. Economic development is economic, social and environmental
substantial reduction in regional primarily regionally oriented and per sustainability. It is a world with
differences in per capita income. The capita economic growth and techno- continuously increasing global
A1 scenario family develops into three logical change more fragmented and population, at a rate lower than A2,
groups that describe alternative slower than other storylines. intermediate levels of economic
directions of technological change in development, and less rapid and more
B1. The B1 storyline and scenario
the energy system. The three A1 diverse technological change than in
family describes a convergent world
groups are distinguished by their the A1 and B1 storylines. While the
with the same global population, that
technological emphasis: fossil scenario is also oriented towards
peaks in mid-century and declines
intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy environmental protection and social
thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but
sources (A1T), or a balance across all equity, it focuses on local and regional
with rapid change in economic
sources (A1B) (where balanced is levels.
There are further small differences in net forcing, but these F. 2 P ro j e c t i o n s o f F u t u r e C h a n g e s i n

decrease until, by 2100, differences in temperature change in G r e e n h o u s e G a s e s a n d A e ro s o l s
the two versions of these scenarios are in the range 1 to 2%.
Models indicate that the illustrative SRES scenarios lead to very
For the B1 scenario, however, temperature change is signifi-
different CO2 concentration trajectories (see Figure 18). By
cantly lower in the final version, leading to a difference in
2100, carbon cycle models project atmospheric CO2 concen-
the temperature change in 2100 of almost 20%, as a result of
trations of 540 to 970 ppm for the illustrative SRES scenarios
generally lower emissions across the full range of
(90 to 250% above the concentration of 280 ppm in 1750). The
greenhouse gases.
net effect of land and ocean climate feedbacks as indicated by
Anthropogenic emissions of the three main greenhouse models is to further increase projected atmospheric CO2 concen-
gases, CO2, CH4 and N2O, together with anthropogenic trations by reducing both the ocean and land uptake of CO2.
sulphur dioxide emissions, are shown for the six illustrative These projections include the land and ocean climate feedbacks.
SRES scenarios in Figure 17. It is evident that these Uncertainties, especially about the magnitude of the climate
scenarios encompass a wide range of emissions. For feedback from the terrestrial biosphere, cause a variation of
comparison, emissions are also shown for IS92a. Particularly about −10 to +30% around each scenario. The total range is 490
noteworthy are the much lower future sulphur dioxide to 1260 ppm (75 to 350% above the 1750 concentration).
emissions for the six SRES scenarios, compared to the IS92
Measures to enhance carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems
scenarios, due to structural changes in the energy system as
could influence atmospheric CO2 concentration, but the upper
well as concerns about local and regional air pollution.
bound for reduction of CO2 concentration by such means is 40
63
26
Scenarios Scenarios
A1B A1B
25 24 A1T
A1T
A1FI A1FI
N2O emissions (Tg N)

CO2 emissions (Gt C)
A2 A2
B1 B1
20 22
B2 B2
IS92a IS92a
20
15
18
10
16
5
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Scenarios
Scenarios 150 A1B
A1B A1T
A1T A1FI
1000 A2
CH4 emissions (Tg CH4)
A1FI
SO2 emissions (Tg S)
A2 B1
B1 B2
IS92a
B2 100
IS92a
800
50
600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year Year
Figure 17: Anthropogenic emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O and sulphur dioxide for the six illustrative SRES scenarios, A1B, A2, B1 and B2, A1FI and
A1T. For comparison the IS92a scenario is also shown. [Based on IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.]
to 70 ppm. If all the carbon released by historic land-use the six illustrative SRES scenarios. In general A1B, A1T and
changes could be restored to the terrestrial biosphere over the B1 have the smallest increases, and A1FI and A2, the largest.
course of the century (e.g., by reforestation), CO2 concentration The CH4 changes from 1998 to 2100 range from −190 to
would be reduced by 40 to 70 ppm. Thus, fossil fuel CO2 +1970 ppb (−11 to +112%), and N2O increases from +38 to
emissions are virtually certain to remain the dominant control +144 ppb (+12 to +46%) (see Figures 17b and c). The HFCs
over trends in atmospheric CO2 concentration during this (134a, 143a, and 125) reach abundances of a few hundred to a
century. thousand ppt from negligible levels today. The PFC CF4 is
projected to increase to 200 to 400 ppt, and SF6 is projected to
Model calculations of the abundances of the primary non-CO2
increase to 35 to 65 ppt.
greenhouse gases by the year 2100 vary considerably across
64
1300 For the six illustrative SRES emissions scenarios, projected
1200 Scenarios emissions of indirect greenhouse gases (NOx , CO, VOC),
A1B together with changes in CH4 , are projected to change the
1100 A1T
1000 A1FI global mean abundance of the tropospheric hydroxyl radical
900
A2 (OH), by −20% to +6% over the next century. Because of the
B1
800 B2 importance of OH in tropospheric chemistry, comparable, but
IS92a opposite sign, changes occur in the atmospheric lifetimes of
700
600
the greenhouse gases CH4 and HFCs. This impact depends in
large part on the magnitude of and the balance between NOx
500
and CO emissions. Changes in tropospheric O3 of –12 to +62%
400
are calculated from 2000 until 2100. The largest increase
300
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 predicted for the 21st century is for scenarios A1FI and A2
and would be more than twice as large as that experienced
since the Pre-industrial Era. These O3 increases are attributable
4000
to the concurrent and large increases in anthropogenic NOx
Scenarios
A1B and CH4 emissions.
3500 A1T
CH4 concentration (ppb)
A1FI The large growth in emissions of greenhouse gases and other

A2 pollutants as projected in some of the six illustrative SRES
3000 B1
B2 scenarios for the 21st century will degrade the global
IS92a environment in ways beyond climate change. Changes
2500
projected in the SRES A2 and A1FI scenarios would degrade
air quality over much of the globe by increasing background
2000
levels of tropospheric O3. In northern mid-latitudes during
summer, the zonal average of O3 increases near the surface
1500
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 are about 30 ppb or more, raising background levels to about
80 ppb, threatening the attainment of current air quality
500 standards over most metropolitan and even rural regions and
Scenarios compromising crop and forest productivity. This problem
A1B
A1T reaches across continental boundaries and couples emissions
N2O concentration (ppb)
450
A1FI of NOx on a hemispheric scale.
A2
B1 Except for sulphate and black carbon, models show an
400 B2
IS92a approximately linear dependence of the abundance of
aerosols on emissions. The processes that determine the
350 removal rate for black carbon differ substantially between the
models, leading to major uncertainty in the future projections
of black carbon. Emissions of natural aerosols such as sea
300 salt, dust, and gas phase precursors of aerosols such as
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
terpenes, sulphur dioxide (SO2), and dimethyl sulphide
oxidation may increase as a result of changes in climate and
Figure 18: Atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O resulting
atmospheric chemistry.
from the six SRES scenarios and from the IS92a scenario computed
with current methodology. [Based on Figures 3.12 and 4.14] The six illustrative SRES scenarios cover nearly the full range
of forcing that results from the full set of SRES scenarios.
Estimated total historical anthropogenic radiative forcing
from 1765 to 1990 followed by forcing resulting from the six
65
SRES scenarios are shown in
10
Figure 19. The forcing from the
A1FI
full range of 35 SRES scenarios 9 A1B
is shown on the figure as a A1T
shaded envelope, since the 8 A2
forcings resulting from B1
individual scenarios cross with 7 B2
time. The direct forcing from IS92a
Forcing (Wm−2)
6 IS92c Model ensemble

biomass-burning aerosols is all SRES
IS92e
scaled with deforestation rates. envelope
5
The SRES scenarios include the
possibility of either increases or 4
decreases in anthropogenic
aerosols (e.g., sulphate aerosols, 3
biomass aerosols, and black and
2
organic carbon aerosols),
depending on the extent of 1
fossil fuel use and policies to
abate polluting emissions. The 0
SRES scenarios do not include 1800 1900 2000 2100
emissions estimates for non- Year
sulphate aerosols. Two methods
for projecting these emissions
were considered in this report: Figure 19: Simple model results: estimated historical anthropogenic radiative forcing up to the year 2000
the first scales the emissions of followed by radiative forcing for the six illustrative SRES scenarios. The shading shows the envelope of
fossil fuel and biomass aerosols forcing that encompasses the full set of thirty five SRES scenarios. The method of calculation closely
follows that explained in the chapters. The values are based on the radiative forcing for a doubling of CO2
with CO while the second
from seven AOGCMs. The IS92a, IS92c, and IS92e forcing is also shown following the same method of
scales the emissions with SO2
calculation. [Based on Figure 9.13a]
and deforestation. Only the
second method was used for
climate projections. For
comparison, radiative forcing is also shown for the IS92a three-quarters of the total. The radiative forcing due to O3-
scenario. It is evident that the range for the new SRES depleting gases decreases due to the introduction of emission
scenarios is shifted higher compared to the IS92 scenarios. controls aimed at curbing stratospheric ozone depletion. The
This is mainly due to the reduced future SO2 emissions of the direct aerosol (sulphate and black and organic carbon
SRES scenarios compared to the IS92 scenarios, but also to components taken together) radiative forcing (evaluated
the slightly larger cumulative carbon emissions featured in relative to present day, 2000) varies in sign for the different
some SRES scenarios. scenarios. The direct plus indirect aerosol effects are projected
to be smaller in magnitude than that of CO2. No estimates are
In almost all SRES scenarios, the radiative forcing due to
made for the spatial aspects of the future forcings. The indirect
CO2, CH4, N2O and tropospheric O3 continue to increase,
effect of aerosols on clouds is included in simple climate model
with the fraction of the total radiative forcing due to CO2
calculations and scaled non-linearly with SO2 emissions,
projected to increase from slightly more than half to about
assuming a present day value of –0.8 Wm−2, as in the SAR.
66
F. 3 P ro j e c t i o n s o f F u t u r e C h a n g e s i n average surface air temperature, relative to the period 1961 to
Te m p e r a t u r e 1990, is 3.0°C (with a range of 1.3 to 4.5°C) for the A2 draft
marker scenario and 2.2°C (with a range of 0.9 to 3.4°C) for the
AO G C M r e s u l t s B2 draft marker scenario. The B2 scenario produces a smaller
Climate sensitivity is likely to be in the range of 1.5 to 4.5°C. warming that is consistent with its lower rate of increased CO2
This estimate is unchanged from the first IPCC Assessment concentration.
Report in 1990 and the SAR. The climate sensitivity is the
equilibrium response of global surface temperature to a doubling On time-scales of a few decades, the current observed rate of
of equivalent CO2 concentration. The range of estimates arises warming can be used to constrain the projected response to a
from uncertainties in the climate models and their internal given emissions scenario despite uncertainty in climate
feedbacks, particularly those related to clouds and related sensitivity. Analysis of simple models and intercomparisons of
processes. Used for the first time in this IPCC report is the AOGCM responses to idealised forcing scenarios suggest that,
Transient Climate Response (TCR). The TCR is defined as the for most scenarios over the coming decades, errors in large-scale
globally averaged surface air temperature change, at the time of temperature projections are likely to increase in proportion to the
doubling of CO2, in a 1%/yr CO2-increase experiment. This rate magnitude of the overall response. The estimated size of and
of CO2 increase is assumed to represent the radiative forcing uncertainty in current observed warming rates attributable to
from all greenhouse gases. The TCR combines elements of human influence thus provides a relatively model-independent
model sensitivity and factors that affect response (e.g., ocean estimate of uncertainty in multi-decade projections under most
heat uptake). The range of the TCR for current AOGCMs is 1.1 scenarios. To be consistent with recent observations, anthro-
to 3.1°C. pogenic warming is likely to lie in the range 0.1 to 0.2°C/decade
over the next few decades under the IS92a scenario. This is
Including the direct effect of sulphate aerosols reduces global similar to the range of responses to this scenario based on the
mean mid-21st century warming. The surface temperature seven versions of the simple model used in Figure 22.
response pattern for a given model, with and without sulphate
aerosols, is more similar than the pattern between two models Most of the features of the geographical response in the SRES
scenario experiments are similar for different scenarios (see
using the same forcing.
Figure 20) and are similar to those for idealised 1% CO2-
Models project changes in several broad-scale climate variables. increase integrations. The biggest difference between the 1%
As the radiative forcing of the climate system changes, the land CO2-increase experiments, which have no sulphate aerosol, and
warms faster and more than the ocean, and there is greater the SRES experiments is the regional moderating of the warming
relative warming at high latitudes. Models project a smaller over industrialised areas, in the SRES experiments, where the
surface air temperature increase in the North Atlantic and negative forcing from sulphate aerosols is greatest. This regional
circumpolar southern ocean regions relative to the global mean. effect was noted in the SAR for only two models, but this has
There is projected to be a decrease in diurnal temperature range now been shown to be a consistent response across the greater
in many areas, with night-time lows increasing more than number of more recent models.
daytime highs. A number of models show a general decrease of It is very likely that nearly all land areas will warm more rapidly
daily variability of surface air temperature in winter and than the global average, particularly those at northern high
increased daily variability in summer in the Northern latitudes in the cold season. Results (see Figure 21) from recent
Hemisphere land areas. As the climate warms, the Northern AOGCM simulations forced with SRES A2 and B2 emissions
Hemisphere snow cover and sea-ice extent are projected to scenarios indicate that in winter the warming for all high-latitude
decrease. Many of these changes are consistent with recent northern regions exceeds the global mean warming in each
observational trends, as noted in Section B. model by more than 40% (1.3 to 6.3°C for the range of models
and scenarios considered). In summer, warming is in excess of
Multi-model ensembles of AOGCM simulations for a range of
40% above the global mean change in central and northern Asia.
scenarios are being used to quantify the mean climate change
Only in south Asia and southern South America in June/July/
and uncertainty based on the range of model results. For the end
August, and Southeast Asia for both seasons, do the models
of the 21st century (2071 to 2100), the mean change in global consistently show warming less than the global average.
67
Figure 20: The annual
mean change of the
temperature (colour
shading) and its range
(isolines) (Unit: °C) for the
SRES scenario A2 (upper
panel) and the SRES
scenario B2 (lower panel).
Both SRES scenarios
show the period 2071 to
2100 relative to the period
1961 to 1990 and were
performed by OAGCMs.
[Based on Figures 9.10d
and 9.10e]
A2
B2
68
S i m p l e cl i m a t e m o d e l r e s u l t s projected temperatures and the wider range are due primarily to
Due to computational expense, AOGCMs can only be run for a the lower projected SO2 emissions in the SRES scenarios
limited number of scenarios. A simple model can be calibrated relative to the IS92 scenarios. The projected rate of warming is
to represent globally averaged AOGCM responses and run for much larger than the observed changes during the 20th century
a much larger number of scenarios. and is very likely to be without precedent during at least the
last 10,000 years, based on palaeoclimate data.
The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to
increase by 1.4 to 5.8°C (Figure 22(a)) over the period 1990 to The relative ranking of the SRES scenarios in terms of global
2100. These results are for the full range of 35 SRES scenarios, mean temperature changes with time. In particular, for
based on a number of climate models.6,7 Temperature increases scenarios with higher fossil fuel use (hence, higher carbon
are projected to be greater than those in the SAR, which were dioxide emissions, e.g., A2), the SO2 emissions are also
about 1.0 to 3.5°C based on six IS92 scenarios. The higher higher. In the near term (to around 2050), the cooling effect of
6
Complex physically based climate models are the main tool for projecting future climate change. In order to explore the range of scenarios, these are
complemented by simple climate models calibrated to yield an equivalent response in temperature and sea level to complex climate models. These
projections are obtained using a simple climate model whose climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake are calibrated to each of 7 complex climate
models. The climate sensitivity used in the simple model ranges from 1.7 to 4.2°C, which is comparable to the commonly accepted range of 1.5 to 4.5°C.
7
This range does not include uncertainties in the modelling of radiative forcing, e.g. aerosol forcing uncertainties. A small carbon cycle climate feedback is included.
i i
i i
i i
i i i i i
i i i i
i i
i i
i i
Change in temperature relative to model's global mean

Much greater than average warming
A2 B2
Greater than average warming
Less than average warming DJF
i Inconsistent magnitude of warming JJA i
Cooling
Figure 21: Analysis of inter-model consistency in regional relative warming (warming relative to each model’s global average warming). Regions are
classified as showing either agreement on warming in excess of 40% above the global average (‘Much greater than average warming’), agreement
on warming greater than the global average (‘Greater than average warming’), agreement on warming less than the global average (‘Less than
average warming’), or disagreement amongst models on the magnitude of regional relative warming (‘Inconsistent magnitude of warming’). There is
also a category for agreement on cooling (which never occurs). A consistent result from at least seven of the nine models is deemed necessary for
agreement. The global annual average warming of the models used span 1.2 to 4.5°C for A2 and 0.9 to 3.4°C for B2, and therefore a regional 40%
amplification represents warming ranges of 1.7 to 6.3°C for A2 and 1.3 to 4.7°C for B2. [Based on Chapter 10, Box 1, Figure 1]
69
Figure 22: Simple model
(a) results: (a) global mean
6 temperature projections for the
A1B Several models
A1T all SRES six illustrative SRES scenarios
A1FI envelope using a simple climate model
5 A2 tuned to a number of complex
B1 Model ensemble
all SRES models with a range of climate
B2
IS92e high envelope sensitivities. Also for

4 IS92a (TAR method) comparison, following the same
IS92c low method, results are shown for
IS92a. The darker shading
3
represents the envelope of the
full set of thirty-five SRES
scenarios using the average of
2
the model results (mean climate
sensitivity is 2.8°C). The lighter
shading is the envelope based
1 Bars show the
range in 2100 on all seven model projections
produced by (with climate sensitivity in the
several models
range 1.7 to 4.2°C). The bars
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 show, for each of the six
Year illustrative SRES scenarios, the
(b) range of simple model results in
7 2100 for the seven AOGCM
A1B model tunings. (b) Same as (a)
A1T Several models but results using estimated
6 all SRES
A1FI envelope historical anthropogenic forcing
A2 are also used. [Based on
B1 Figures 9.14 and 9.13b]
5 Model ensemble
B2
all SRES
IS92a (TAR method) envelope
4
Bars show the

1 range in 2100
produced by
several models
0
1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
70
higher sulphur dioxide emissions significantly reduces the F.4 Projections of Future Changes in Precipitation
warming caused by increased emissions of greenhouse gases
Globally averaged water vapour, evaporation and precipi-
in scenarios such as A2. The opposite effect is seen for
tation are projected to increase. At the regional scale both
scenarios B1 and B2, which have lower fossil fuel emissions
increases and decreases in precipitation are seen. Results
as well as lower SO2 emissions, and lead to a larger near-
(see Figure 23) from recent AOGCM simulations forced with
term warming. In the longer term, however, the level of
SRES A2 and B2 emissions scenarios indicate that it is likely
emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases such as CO2 and
for precipitation to increase in both summer and winter over
N2O become the dominant determinants of the resulting
high-latitude regions. In winter, increases are also seen over
climate changes.
northern mid-latitudes, tropical Africa and Antarctica, and in
By 2100, differences in emissions in the SRES scenarios and summer in southern and eastern Asia. Australia, central
different climate model responses contribute similar America, and southern Africa show consistent decreases in
uncertainty to the range of global temperature change. winter rainfall.
Further uncertainties arise due to uncertainties in the
Based on patterns emerging from a limited number of studies
radiative forcing. The largest forcing uncertainty is that due
with current AOGCMs, older GCMs, and regionalisation
to the sulphate aerosols.
studies, there is a strong correlation between precipitation
i i 0 0
i i i i
i i
i i
i i i i
i i i
0 0
i 0 0 i i i 0 i
i 0
i i i i
i i
i i i
Change in precipitation
Large increase
Small increase
0 No change A2 B2
Small decrease DJF
Large decrease
JJA
i Inconsistent sign
Figure 23: Analysis of inter-model consistency in regional precipitation change. Regions are classified as showing either agreement on increase with an
average change of greater than 20% (‘Large increase’), agreement on increase with an average change between 5 and 20% (‘Small increase’), agreement
on a change between –5 and +5% or agreement with an average change between –5 and 5% (‘No change’), agreement on decrease with an average
change between –5 and −20% (‘Small decrease’), agreement on decrease with an average change of less than −20% (‘Large decrease’), or disagreement
(‘Inconsistent sign’). A consistent result from at least seven of the nine models is deemed necessary for agreement. [Based on Chapter 10, Box 1, Figure 2]
71
interannual variability and mean precipitation. Future projected to occur over nearly all land areas and are generally
increases in mean precipitation will likely lead to increases larger where snow and ice retreat. Frost days and cold waves
in variability. Conversely, precipitation variability will likely are very likely to become fewer. The changes in surface air
decrease only in areas of reduced mean precipitation. temperature and surface absolute humidity are projected to
result in increases in the heat index (which is a measure of the
F. 5 P ro j e c t i o n s o f F u t u r e C h a n g e s i n combined effects of temperature and moisture). The increases
Extreme Events in surface air temperature are also projected to result in an
increase in the “cooling degree days” (which is a measure of
It is only recently that changes in extremes of weather and the amount of cooling required on a given day once the
climate observed to date have been compared to changes temperature exceeds a given threshold) and a decrease in
projected by models (Table 4). More hot days and heat waves “heating degree days”. Precipitation extremes are projected to
are very likely over nearly all land areas. These increases are increase more than the mean and the intensity of precipitation
projected to be largest mainly in areas where soil moisture events are projected to increase. The frequency of extreme
decreases occur. Increases in daily minimum temperature are
Table 4: Estimates of confidence in observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events. The table depicts an assessment of
confidence in observed changes in extremes of weather and climate during the latter half of the 20th century (left column) and in projected
changes during the 21st century (right column)a. This assessment relies on observational and modelling studies, as well as physical plausibility of
future projections across all commonly used scenarios and is based on expert judgement (see Footnote 4). [Based upon Table 9.6]
Confidence in observed Confidence in projected changes

changes (latter half of the 20th Changes in Phenomenon (during the 21st century)
century)
Likely Higher maximum temperatures Very likely
and more hot days over nearly all
land areas
Very likely Higher minimum temperatures, Very likely
fewer cold days and frost days
over nearly all land areas
Very likely Reduced diurnal temperature Very likely
range over most land areas
Likely, over many areas Increase of heat index8 over land Very likely, over most areas
areas
Likely, over many Northern More intense precipitation Very likely, over many areas
Hemisphere mid- to high latitude eventsb
land areas
Likely, in a few areas Increased summer continental Likely, over most mid-latitude
drying and associated risk of continental interiors (Lack of consistent
drought projections in other areas)
Not observed in the few analyses Increase in tropical cyclone peak Likely, over some areas
available wind intensitiesc
Insufficient data for assessment Increase in tropical cyclone mean Likely, over some areas
and peak precipitation intensitiesc
a For more details see Chapter 2 (observations) and Chapters 9, 10 (projections).
b For other areas there are either insufficient data of conflicting analyses.
c Past and future changes in tropical cyclone location and frequency are uncertain.
8
Heat index: A combination of temperature and humidity that measures effects on human comfort
72
precipitation events is projected to increase almost Atlantic THC weakens in most models, the relative roles of
everywhere. There is projected to be a general drying of the surface heat and fresh water fluxes vary from model to model.
mid-continental areas during summer. This is ascribed to a Wind stress changes appear to play only a minor role in the
combination of increased temperature and potential transient response.
evaporation that is not balanced by increases of precipitation.
There is little agreement yet among models concerning future F. 7 P ro j e c t i o n s o f F u t u r e C h a n g e s i n
changes in mid-latitude storm intensity, frequency, and M o d e s o f N a t u r a l Va r i a b i l i t y
variability. There is little consistent evidence that shows
changes in the projected frequency of tropical cyclones and Many models show a mean El Niño-like response in the
areas of formation. However, some measures of intensities tropical Pacific, with the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
show projected increases, and some theoretical and modelling sea surface temperatures projected to warm more than the
studies suggest that the upper limit of these intensities could western equatorial Pacific and with a corresponding mean
increase. Mean and peak precipitation intensities from tropical eastward shift of precipitation. Although many models show an
cyclones are likely to increase appreciably. El Niño-like change of the mean state of tropical Pacific sea
surface temperatures, the cause is uncertain. It has been related
For some other extreme phenomena, many of which may have to changes in the cloud radiative forcing and/or evaporative
important impacts on the environment and society, there is damping of the east-west sea surface temperature gradient in
currently insufficient information to assess recent trends, and some models. Confidence in projections of changes in future
confidence in models and understanding is inadequate to make frequency, amplitude, and spatial pattern of El Niño events in
firm projections. In particular, very small-scale phenomena the tropical Pacific is tempered by some shortcomings in how
such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, and lightning are not well El Niño is simulated in complex models. Current
simulated in global models. Insufficient analysis has occurred projections show little change or a small increase in amplitude
of how extra-tropical cyclones may change. for El Niño events over the next 100 years. However, even with
little or no change in El Niño amplitude, global warming is
F. 6 P ro j e c t i o n s o f F u t u r e C h a n g e s i n likely to lead to greater extremes of drying and heavy rainfall
T h e r m o h a l i n e C i rc u l a t i o n and increase the risk of droughts and floods that occur with El
Niño events in many regions. It also is likely that warming
Most models show weakening of the Northern Hemisphere
associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will
Thermohaline Circulation (THC), which contributes to a
cause an increase of Asian summer monsoon precipitation
reduction of the surface warming in the northern North
variability. Changes in monsoon mean duration and strength
Atlantic. Even in models where the THC weakens, there is still
depend on the details of the emission scenario. The confidence
a warming over Europe due to increased greenhouse gases. In
in such projections is limited by how well the climate models
experiments where the atmospheric greenhouse gas concen-
simulate the detailed seasonal evolution of the monsoons.
tration is stabilised at twice its present day value, the North
There is no clear agreement on changes in frequency or
Atlantic THC is projected to recover from initial weakening
structure of naturally occurring modes of variability, such as
within one to several centuries. The THC could collapse
the North Atlantic Oscillation, i.e., the magnitude and character
entirely in either hemisphere if the rate of change in radiative
of the changes vary across the models.
forcing is large enough and applied long enough. Models
indicate that a decrease of the THC reduces its resilience to
perturbations, i.e., a once reduced THC appears to be less F. 8 P ro j e c t i o n s o f F u t u r e C h a n g e s i n L a n d
stable and a shut-down can become more likely. However, it is I c e ( G l a c i e rs , I c e C a p s a n d I c e S h e e t s ) ,
too early to say with confidence whether an irreversible S e a I c e a n d S n ow C ov e r
collapse in the THC is likely or not, or at what threshold it Glaciers and ice caps will continue their widespread retreat
might occur and what the climate implications could be. None during the 21st century and Northern Hemisphere snow cover
of the current projections with coupled models exhibits a and sea ice are projected to decrease further. Methods have
complete shut-down of the THC by 2100. Although the North been developed recently for estimating glacier melt from
73
seasonally and geographically dependent patterns of surface has attracted special attention because it contains enough ice
air temperature change, that are obtained from AOGCM to raise sea level by 6 m and because of suggestions that
experiments. Modelling studies suggest that the evolution of instabilities associated with its being grounded below sea level
glacial mass is controlled principally by temperature changes, may result in rapid ice discharge when the surrounding ice
rather than precipitation changes, on the global average. shelves are weakened. However, loss of grounded ice leading
to substantial sea level rise from this source is now widely
The Antarctic ice sheet is likely to gain mass because of
agreed to be very unlikely during the 21st century, although its
greater precipitation, while the Greenland ice sheet is likely to
dynamics are still inadequately understood, especially for
lose mass because the increase in runoff will exceed the
projections on longer time-scales.
precipitation increase. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)
1.0
A1B
A1T
A1FI
0.8 A2
B1
B2
Sea level rise (m)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Figure 24: Global average sea level rise 1990 to 2100 for the SRES scenarios. Thermal expansion and land ice changes were calculated using a
simple climate model calibrated separately for each of seven AOGCMs, and contributions from changes in permafrost, the effect of sediment
deposition and the long-term adjustment of the ice sheets to past climate change were added. Each of the six lines appearing in the key is the
average of AOGCMs for one of the six illustrative scenarios. The region in dark shading shows the range of the average of AOGCMs for all thirty
five SRES scenarios. The region in light shading shows the range of all AOGCMs for all thirty five scenarios. The region delimited by the outermost
lines shows the range of all AOGCMs and scenarios including uncertainty in land-ice changes, permafrost changes and sediment deposition. Note
that this range does not allow for uncertainty relating to ice-dynamic changes in the West Antarctic ice sheet. [Based on Figure 11.12]
74
F. 9 P ro j e c t i o n s o f F u t u r e C h a n g e s i n S e a compared to global average sea level rise. However,
L ev e l confidence in the regional distribution of sea level change
from AOGCMs is low because there is little similarity
Projections of global average sea level rise from 1990 to
between models, although nearly all models project greater
2100, using a range of AOGCMs following the IS92a
than average rise in the Arctic Ocean and less than average
scenario (including the direct effect of sulphate aerosol
rise in the Southern Ocean. Further, land movements, both
emissions), lie in the range 0.11 to 0.77 m. This range
isostatic and tectonic, will continue through the 21st century
reflects the systematic uncertainty of modelling. The main
at rates that are unaffected by climate change. It can be
contributions to this sea level rise are:
expected that by 2100, many regions currently experiencing
● a thermal expansion of 0.11 to 0.43 m, accelerating relative sea level fall will instead have a rising relative sea
through the 21st century; level. Lastly, extreme high water levels will occur with
● a glacier contribution of 0.01 to 0.23 m; increasing frequency as a result of mean sea level rise. Their
● a Greenland contribution of −0.02 to 0.09 m; and frequency may be further increased if storms become more
frequent or severe as a result of climate change.
● an Antarctic contribution of −0.17 to +0.02 m.
Also included in the computation of the total change are
F. 1 0 P ro j e c t i o n s o f F u t u r e C h a n g e s i n
smaller contributions from thawing of permafrost,
Response to CO2 Concentration
deposition of sediment, and the ongoing contributions from
S t a b i l i s a t i o n P ro f i l e s
ice sheets as a result of climate change since the Last
Glacial Maximum. To establish the range of sea level rise G r e e n h o u s e g a s e s a n d a e ro s o l s
resulting from the choice of different SRES scenarios, All of the stabilisation profiles studied require CO2
results for thermal expansion and land-ice change from emissions to eventually drop well below current levels.
simple models tuned to several AOGCMs are used (as in Anthropogenic CO2 emission rates that arrive at stable CO2
Section F.3 for temperature). concentration levels from 450 to 1,000 ppm were deduced
For the full set of SRES scenarios, a sea level rise of 0.09 to from the prescribed CO2 profiles (Figure 25a). The results
0.88 m is projected for 1990 to 2100 (see Figure 24), (Figure 25b) are not substantially different from those
primarily from thermal expansion and loss of mass from presented in the SAR; however, the range is larger, mainly
glaciers and ice caps. The central value is 0.48 m, which due to the range of future terrestrial carbon uptake caused
corresponds to an average rate of about two to four times the by different assumptions in the models. Stabilisation at 450,
rate over the 20th century. The range of sea level rise 650 or 1,000 ppm would require global anthropogenic
presented in the SAR was 0.13 to 0.94 m based on the IS92 emissions to drop below 1990 levels within a few decades,
scenarios. Despite higher temperature change projections in about a century, or about two centuries, respectively, and
this assessment, the sea level projections are slightly lower, continue to steadily decrease thereafter. Although there is
primarily due to the use of improved models which give a sufficient uptake capacity in the ocean to incorporate 70 to
smaller contribution from glaciers and ice sheets. If 80% of foreseeable anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the
terrestrial storage continues at its current rates, the atmosphere, this process takes centuries due to the rate of
projections could be changed by –0.21 to 0.11 m. For an ocean mixing. As a result, even several centuries after
average of the AOGCMs, the SRES scenarios give results emissions occurred, about a quarter of the increase in
that differ by 0.02 m or less for the first half of the 21st concentration caused by these emissions is still present in
century. By 2100, they vary over a range amounting to about the atmosphere. To maintain constant CO2 concentration
50% of the central value. Beyond the 21st century, sea level beyond 2300 requires emissions to drop to match the rate of
rise depends strongly on the emissions scenario. carbon sinks at that time. Natural land and ocean sinks with
the capacity to persist for hundreds or thousands of years are
Models agree on the qualitative conclusion that the range of small (<0.2 PgC/yr).
regional variation in sea level change is substantial
75
(a) Te m p e r a t u r e
1100
Stabilisation scenarios
Global mean temperature continues to increase for hundreds
1000 WRE1000
of years at a rate of a few tenths of a degree per century after
900 concentrations of CO2 have been stabilised, due to long

800 time-scales in the ocean. The temperature implications of CO2
WRE750
700 concentration profiles leading to stabilisation from 450 ppm to
WRE650
600 1,000 ppm were studied using a simple climate model tuned to
WRE550
500
seven AOGCMs with a mean climate sensitivity of 2.8°C. For
WRE450
all the pathways leading to stabilisation, the climate system
400
shows considerable warming during the 21st century and
300
beyond (see Figure 26). The lower the level at which
(b) 20
Bern-CC concentrations stabilise, the smaller the total temperature change.
1000
CO2 emissions (PgC/yr)
15 750
650 5
550
10
1,000
4
450
5 750
650
0 3
(c) 20 550
ISAM
1000 2 450
CO2 emissions (PgC/yr)
15 750
650
550
ppm
10
1
450
0
0 2000 2100 2200 2300
2000 2100 2200 2300 Year
Year
Figure 25: Projcted CO2 emissions permitting stabilisation of atmospheric Figure 26: Simple model results: Projected global mean temperature
CO2 concentrations at different final values. Panel (a) shows the assumed changes when the concentration of CO2 is stabilised following the WRE
trajectories of CO2 concentration (WRE scenarios) and panels (b) and (c) profiles (see Chapter 9 Section 9.3.3). For comparison, results based on
show the implied CO2 emissions, as projected with two fast carbon cycle the S profiles in the SAR are also shown in green (S1000 not available).
models, Bern-CC and ISAM. The model ranges for ISAM were obtained The results are the average produced by a simple climate model tuned
by tuning the model to approximate the range of responses to CO2 and
to seven AOGCMs. The baseline scenario is scenario A1B, this is
climate from model intercomparisons. This approach yields a lower bound
specified only to 2100. After 2100, the emissions of gases other than
on uncertainties in the carbon cycle response. The model ranges for Bern-
CO2 are assumed to remain constant at their A1B 2100 values. The
CC were obtained by combining different bounding assumptions about the
behaviour of the CO2 fertilization effect, the response of heterotrophic projections are labelled according to the level of CO2 stabilisation. The
respiration to temperature and the turnover time of the ocean, thus broken lines after 2100 indicate increased uncertainty in the simple
approaching an upper bound on uncertainties in the carbon cycle climate model results beyond 2100. The black dots indicate the time of
response. For each model, the upper and lower bounds are indicated by CO2 stabilisation. The stabilisation year for the WRE1000 profile is 2375.
the top and bottom of the shaded area. Alternatively, the lower bound [Based on Figure 9.16]
(where hidden) is indicated by a hatched line. [Based on Figure 3.13]
76
S e a l ev e l used in Chapter 11. For a warming over Greenland of 5.5°C,
If greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilised (even at consistent with mid-range stabilisation scenarios (see Figure
present levels), sea level would nonetheless continue to rise for 26), the Greenland ice sheet is likely to contribute about 3 m
hundreds of years. After 500 years, sea level rise from thermal in 1,000 years. For a warming of 8°C, the contribution is about
expansion may have reached only half of its eventual level, 6 m, the ice sheet being largely eliminated. For smaller
which models suggest may lie within a range of 0.5 to 2.0 m warmings, the decay of the ice sheet would be substantially
and 1 to 4 m for CO2 levels of twice and four times pre- slower (see Figure 27).
industrial, respectively. The long time-scale is characteristic of
Current ice dynamic models project that the West Antarctic ice
the weak diffusion and slow circulation processes that
sheet (WAIS) will contribute no more than 3 mm/yr to sea level
transport heat into the deep ocean.
rise over the next thousand years, even if significant changes
The loss of a substantial fraction of the total glacier mass is were to occur in the ice shelves. Such results are strongly
likely. Areas that are currently marginally glaciated are most dependent on model assumptions regarding climate change
likely to become ice-free. scenarios, ice dynamics and other factors. Apart from the
possibility of an internal ice dynamic instability, surface
Ice sheets will continue to react to climatic change during the
melting will affect the long-term viability of the Antarctic ice
next several thousand years, even if the climate is stabilised.
sheet. For warmings of more than 10ºC, simple runoff models
Together, the present Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets
predict that a zone of net mass loss would develop on the ice
contain enough water to raise sea level by almost 70 m if they
sheet surface. Irreversible disintegration of the WAIS would
were to melt, so that only a small fractional change in their
result because the WAIS cannot retreat to higher ground once
volume would have a significant effect.
its margins are subjected to surface melting and begin to
Models project that a local annual average warming of larger recede. Such a disintegration would take at least a few
than 3°C, sustained for millennia, would lead to virtually a millennia. Thresholds for total disintegration of the East
complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet with a reulting Antarctic ice sheet by surface melting involve warmings above
sea level rise of about 7 m. Projected temperatures over 20ºC, a situation that has not occurred for at least 15 million
Greenland are generally greater than globally averaged years and which is far more than predicted by any scenario of
temperatures by a factor of 1.2 to 3.1 for the range of models climate change currently under consideration.
600 Figure 27: Response of the Greenland ice sheet to three climatic
warming scenarios during the third millennium expressed in equivalent
+8°C
Global sea level change (cm)
500 changes of global sea level. The curve labels refer to the mean annual
temperature rise over Greenland by 3000 AD as predicted by a two-
400
dimensional climate and ocean model forced by greenhouse gas concen-
tration rises until 2130 AD and kept constant after that. Note that
300 +5.5°C
projected temperatures over Greenland are generally greater than
200 globally averaged temperatures by a factor of 1.2 to 3.1 for the range of
models used in Chapter 11. [Based on Figure 11.16]
100 +3°C
0
2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000
Year AD
77
G . A dva n c i n g U n d e rs t a n d i n g G . 2 C l i m a t e P ro c e s s e s a n d M o d e l l i n g
Estimate better future emissions and concentrations of
The previous sections have contained descriptions of the greenhouse gases and aerosols. It is particularly important that
current state of knowledge of the climate of the past and improvements are realised in deriving concentrations from
present, the current understanding of the forcing agents and emissions of gases and particularly aerosols, in addressing
processes in the climate system and how well they can be biogeochemical sequestration and cycling, and specifically,
represented in climate models. Given the knowledge possessed and in determining the spatial-temporal distribution of CO2
today, the best assessment was given whether climate change sources and sinks, currently and in the future.
can be detected and whether that change can be attributed to
human influence. With the best tools available today, Understand and characterise more completely dominant
projections were made of how the climate could change in the processes (e.g., ocean mixing) and feedbacks (e.g., from
future for different scenarios of emissions of greenhouse gases. clouds and sea ice) in the atmosphere, biota, land and ocean
surfaces, and deep oceans. These sub-systems, phenomena,
This Section looks into the future in a different way. and processes are important and merit increased attention to
Uncertainties are present in each step of the chain from improve prognostic capabilities generally. The interplay of
emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, through to the observation and models will be the key for progress. The
impacts that they have on the climate system and society (see rapid forcing of a non-linear system has a high prospect of
Figure 28). Many factors continue to limit the ability to detect, producing surprises.
attribute, and understand current climate change and to project
what future climate changes may be. Further work is needed in Address more completely patterns of long-term climate
nine broad areas. variability. This topic arises both in model calculations and in
the climate system. In simulations, the issue of climate drift
within model calculations needs to be clarified better in part
G.1 Data
because it compounds the difficulty of distinguishing signal
Arrest the decline of observational networks in many parts of and noise. With respect to the long-term natural variability in
the world. Unless networks are significantly improved, it may the climate system per se, it is important to understand this
be difficult or impossible to detect climate change in many variability and to expand the emerging capability of
areas of the globe. predicting patterns of organised variability such as ENSO.
Expand the observational foundation for climate studies to Explore more fully the probabilistic character of future
provide accurate, long-term data with expanded temporal and climate states by developing multiple ensembles of model
spatial coverage. Given the complexity of the climate system calculations. The climate system is a coupled non-linear
and the inherent multi-decadal time-scale, there is a need for chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of
long-term consistent data to support climate and environmental future exact climate states is not possible. Rather the focus
change investigations and projections. Data from the present must be upon the prediction of the probability distribution of
and recent past, climate-relevant data for the last few centuries, the system’s future possible states by the generation of
and for the last several millennia are all needed. There is a ensembles of model solutions.
particular shortage of data in polar regions and data for the
Improve the integrated hierarchy of global and regional
quantitative assessment of extremes on the global scale.
climate models with emphasis on improving the simulation of
regional impacts and extreme weather events. This will require
improvements in the understanding of the coupling between
the major atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial systems, and
extensive diagnostic modelling and observational studies that
evaluate and improve simulative performance. A particularly
important issue is the adequacy of data needed to attack the
question of changes in extreme events.
78
G.3 Human Aspects Socio-economic assumptions
(WGII/Ch 3; WGIII/Ch 2 - SRES)
Link more formally physical climate-biogeochemical models
with models of the human system and thereby provide the basis Emissions scenarios
for expanded exploration of possible cause-effect-cause (WGIII/Ch 2 - SRES)
Policy responses: adaptation and mitigation

patterns linking human and non-human components of the
Earth system. At present, human influences generally are Concentration projections
(WGI/Ch 3,4,5)
treated only through emission scenarios that provide external
forcings to the climate system. In future more comprehensive
Interactions and feedbacks

(WGI/Ch 3,4,5,7; WGII/Ch 3)
Radiative forcing projections
(WGII; WGIII)
models are required in which human activities need to begin to (WGI/Ch 6)
interact with the dynamics of physical, chemical, and
biological sub-systems through a diverse set of contributing Climate projections
(WGI/Ch 8,9,10)
activities, feedbacks and responses.
Sea level projections Climate scenarios
G . 4 I n t e r n a t i o n a l F r a m ewo r k (WGI/Ch 11) (WGI/Ch 13)
Accelerate internationally progress in understanding climate Global change scenarios

change by strengthening the international framework that is (WGII/Ch 3)
needed to co-ordinate national and institutional efforts so that
research, computational, and observational resources may be Impacts
(WGII)
used to the greatest overall advantage. Elements of this
framework exist in the international programmes supported by Figure 28: The cascade of uncertainties in projections to be
the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU), the considered in developing climate and related scenarios for
World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United climate change impact, adaptation, and mitigation assessment.
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the United [Based on Figure 13.2]
Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organisation
(UNESCO). There is a corresponding need for strengthening
the co-operation within the international research community,
building research capacity in many regions and, as is the goal
of this assessment, effectively describing research advances in
terms that are relevant to decision making.
79
S o u rc e I n fo r m a t i o n : Te c h n i c a l Section B: The Observed Changes in the Climate
Summary System
TS Page Technical Summary Section and Topic –
This Appendix provides the cross-reference of the topics in the Chapter Section
Technical Summary (page and section) to the sections of the 26 − 29 B.1 Observed Changes in Temperature
chapters that contain expanded information about the topic. Temperatures in the instrumental record for land
and oceans − Chapter 2.2.2 and 2.3.
Temperatures above the surface layer from
S e c t i o n A : I n t ro d u c t i o n satellite and weather balloon records −
TS Page Technical Summary Section and Topic – Chapter 2.2.3 and 2.2.4.
Chapter Section Surface temperatures during the pre-instrumental
22 A.1 The IPCC and its Working Groups record from the proxy record
Introduction to the Intergovernmental Panel on Last 1,000 years − Chapter 2.3.
Climate Change (from the IPCC Secretariat, Last glacial and deglaciation − Chapter 2.4.
Geneva) or the IPCC web page at 30 B.2 Observed Changes in Precipitation and
http://www.ipcc.ch Atmospheric Moisture
Annual land-surface precipitation − Chapter 2.5.2.
22 − 23 A.2 The First and Second Assessment Reports
Water vapour − Chapter 2.5.3.
of Working Group I
Cloud amounts − Chapter 2.5.5.
IPCC, 1990a: Climate Change: The IPCC
Scientific Assessment. J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins 30 B.3 Observed Changes in Snow Cover and
and J.J. Ephraums (eds.), Cambridge University Land- and Sea-Ice Extent
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 365 pp. Snow cover and land-ice extent − Chapter 2.2.5.
Sea-ice extent − Chapter 2.2.5.
IPCC, 1992: Climate Change 1992: The
Arctic sea-ice thickness − Chapter 2.2.5.
Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific
Assessment. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Callander and 31 − 32 B.4 Observed Changes in Sea Level
S.K. Varney (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Changes During the Instrumental Record
Cambridge, United Kingdom, 198 pp. Tide gauge data for the 20th century −
Chapter 11.3.2.
IPCC, 1994: Climate Change 1994: Radiative Box 2: What causes sea level to change? −
Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of Chapter 11.2.
the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios. J.T. Houghton, Changes during the pre-instrumental record –
L.G. Meira Filho, J. Bruce, Hoesung Lee, Chapter 11.3.1.
B.A. Callander, E. Haites, N. Harris and
K. Maskell (eds.), Cambridge University Press, 32 − 33 B.5 Observed Changes in Atmospheric and
Cambridge, United Kingdom, 339 pp. Oceanic Circulation Patterns
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) −
IPCC, 1996a: Climate Change 1995: The Science Chapter 2.6.2 and 2.6.3.
of Climate Change. Contribution of Working North Atlantic, Arctic, and Antarctic oscillations −
Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Chapter 2.6.5 and 2.6.6.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[Houghton, J.T., L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander, 33 B.6 Observed Changes in Climate Variability
N Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell (eds.)]. and Extreme Weather and Climate Events
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Heavy and extreme precipitation − Chapter 2.7.2.
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 572 pp. Tropical and extra-tropical storms − Chapter 2.7.3.
23 − 24 A.3 The Third Assessment Report: This 33 B.7 The Collective Picture: A Warming World
and Other Changes in the Climate System
Technical Summary
A warming world − Chapter 2.8.
Background to these questions is in Chapter 1.
Little or no change − Chapter 2.2.5 and 2.7.3.
Box 1: What drives changes in climate? – Chapter 1.
80
S e c t i o n C : T h e F o rc i n g A g e n t s T h a t C a u s e S e c t i o n D : T h e S i mu l a t i o n o f t h e C l i m a t e
Climate Change System and Its Changes
TS Page Technical Summary Section and Topic – TS Page Technical Summary Section and Topic –
Chapter Section Chapter Section
38 − 43 C.1 Observed Changes in Globally 46 − 51 D.1 Climate Processes and Feedbacks
Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and Box 3: Climate Models: How are they built and
Radiative Forcing. how are they applied? − Chapter 8.3.
Carbon dioxide − Chapter 3.2.2, 3.2.3, 3.3.1, Water vapour − Chapter 7.2.1.
3.3.2, and 3.5, Chapter 6.13 Clouds − Chapter 7.2.2 and 7.2.3, Chapter 8.5.1.
Methane − Chapter 4.2.1, Chapter 6.13. Stratosphere − Chapter 7.2.4 and 7.2.5,
Nitrous Oxide − Chapter 4.2, Chapter 6.13. Chapter 8.5.1.
Halocarbons and Related Compounds − Ocean − Chapter 7.3, Chapter 8.5.2.
Chapter 4.2.2, Chapter 6.13. Cryosphere − Chapter 7.5, Chapter 8.5.3.
Land surface – Chapter 7.4, Chapter 8.5.4.
43 − 44 C.2 Observed Changes in Other Radiatively
Carbon cycle − Chapter 3.6.
Important Gases
Atmospheric ozone − Chapter 4.2.2 and 4.2.4, 51 − 53 D.2 The Coupled Systems
Chapter 6.13. Modes of natural variability − Chapter 7.6,
Gases with only indirect radiative influence − Chapter 8.7.
Chapter 4.2.3, Chapter 6.13 Box 4: The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
− Chapter 7.6.5, Chapter 8.7.1
44 − 45 C.3 Observed and Modelled Changes in Aerosols
The thermohaline circulation − Chapter 7.3.7
Observed and modelled changes in aerosols −
and 7.7, Chapter 9.3.4.
Chapter 5.1, 5.2, 5.3 and 5.4, Chapter 6.7 and 6.8.
Non-linear events and rapid climate change −
45 C.4 Observed Changes in Other Anthropogenic Chapter 7.7.
Forcing Agents
53 − 54 D.3 Regionalisation Techniques
Land-use (albedo) change − Chapter 6.13.
Categories of techniques − Chapter 10.1, 10.2,
45 − 46 C.5 Observed and Modelled Changes in Solar Chapter 13.
Activity Coarse resolution AOGCMs − Chapter 10.3,
Observed and modelled changes in solar activity - Chapter 13.
Chapter 6.10. High resolution RCMs − Chapter 10.5, Chapter 13.
46 C.6 Global Warming Potentials 54 − 55 D.4 Overall Assessment of Abilities
Global warming potentials - Chapter 6.12 Flux adjustment − Chapter 7.2, 7.3 and 7.6,
Chapter 8.4 and 8.9.
Climate of the 20th century − Chapter 8.6.
Extreme events − Chapter 8.8.
Interannual variability − Chapter 8.7.
Model intercomparisons − Chapter 8.6.2 and 8.10.
81
Section E: The Identification of a Human S e c t i o n F : T h e P ro j e c t i o n s o f t h e E a r t h ’s
Influence on Climate Change Future Climate
TS Page Technical Summary Section and Topic – TS Page Technical Summary Section and Topic –
Chapter Section Chapter Section
55 − 56 E.1 The Meaning of Detection and Attribution 62 − 63 F.1 The IPCC Special Report on Emissions
Detection/Attribution − Chapter 12.1.1 and 12.2. Scenarios (SRES)
SRES scenarios − Chapter 6.15.2, SRES Report.
56 E.2 A Longer and More Closely Scrutinised
Box 5: The Emission Scenarios of the Special
Observational Record
Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) −
Three of last five years − Chapter 12.2.1.
Chapter 6.15.2, SRES Report, Appendix II.
56 E.3 New Model Estimates of Internal Variability
63 − 66 F.2 Projections of Future Changes in
The warming over the past 100 years −
Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols
Chapter 12.2.2.
CO2 concentration trajectories − Chapter 3.3 and
57 E.4 New Estimates of Responses to Natural Forcing 3.7, Appendix II.
Natural forcing alone − Chapter 12.2.3. Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems −
Chapter 3.2 and 3.6.
57 E.5 Sensitivity to Estimates of Climate Changes
Abundance of the non-CO2 greenhouse gases −
Signals
Chapter 4.3, Chapter 6.15, Appendix II.
Responses to anthropogenic forcing −
Emissions of indirect greenhouse gases and
Chapter 12.2.3.
atmospheric chemistry − Chapter 4.4.4 and 4.4.5,
Significant anthropogenic forcing contribution −
Chapter 6.15.
Chapter 12.2.3.
Emissions of indirect greenhouse gases and air
57 − 59 E.6 A Wider Range of Detection Techniques quality – Chapter 4.4.5
Temperature – Chapter 12.3 and 12.4. Dependence of the abundance of aerosols on
Sea level – Chapter 11.4. emissions − Chapter 5.5, Chapter 6.15, Appendix II.
59 − 61 E.7 Remaining Uncertainties in Detection and Projected aerosol emissions and the SRES
Attribution scenarios – Chapter 5.5
Summary − Chapter 12.5. Radiative forcing − Chapter 6.15, Appendix II.
61 E.8 Synopsis 67 − 71 F.3 Projections of Future Changes in

Most of the observed warming over the past 50 Temperature
years − Chapter 12.6. AOGCM Results − Chapter 9.3
Simple Climate Model Results − Chapter 9.3
71 − 72 F.4 Projections of Future Changes in
Precipitation
Globally averaged precipitation and variability −
Chapter 9.3.
72 − 73 F.5 Projections of Future Changes in Extreme
Events
Changes in extreme events − Chapter 9.3.6.
73 F.6 Projections of Future Changes in
Thermohaline Circulation
Weakening of Thermohaline Circulation −
Chapter 9.3.4.
82
73 F.7 Projections of Future Changes in Modes of S e c t i o n G : A dva n c i n g U n d e rs t a n d i n g
Natural Variability
TS Page Technical Summary Section and Topic −
Changes in modes of natural variability −
Chapter Section
Chapter 9.3.5.
78 G.1 Data
73 − 74 F.8 Projections of Future Changes in Land Ice Decline of observational networks and the
(Glaciers, Ice Caps and Ice Sheets), Sea Ice and observing system − Chapter 14.2.1.
Snow Cover
Glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets − Chapter 11.5.4. 78 G.2 Climate Processes and Modelling
Greenhouse gases and aerosols − Chapter 14.2.6.
75 F.9 Projections of Future Changes in Sea Level Processes − Chapter 14.2.3.
Global average sea level change − Chapter 11.5.1. Patterns of variability − Chapter 14.2.2.
Regional sea level change − Chapter 11.5.2. Ensembles of model results − Chapter 14.2.2.
Extremes of sea level − Chapter 11.5.3. Hierarchy of models − Chapter 14.2.2
75 − 77 F.10 Projections of Future Changes in Response 79 G.3 Human Aspects
to CO2 Concentration Stabilisation Profiles Physical system/human system − Chapter 14.3,
Greenhouse gases and aerosols − Chapter 3.7.3. Chapter 13.1
Temperature − Chapter 9.3.3.
Sea level − Chapter 11.5.4. 79 G.4 International Framework
Co-ordination − Chapter 14.4.
83
View publication stats

Climate Change 2001 The Scientific Basis PDF

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Climate Change 2001 The Scientific Basis PDF

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Climate Change 2001 The Scientific Basis PDF

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.

Climate Change 2001: The Scientiﬁc Basis

Chapter · January 2001

David J Griggs Maria Noguer

SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE

Paul van der Linden

Climate change: public health evidence View project

Yorta Yorta Country View project

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

• Analyses an enormous body of observations of all parts of the climate system.

J.T. Houghton is Co-Chair of Working Group I, IPCC.

Y. Ding is Co-Chair of Working Group I, IPCC.

X. Dai is a Visiting Scientist, Technical Support Unit, Working Group I, IPCC.

K. Maskell is a Climate Scientist, Technical Support Unit, Working Group I, IPCC.

J.T. Houghton Y. Ding D.J. Griggs

M. Noguer P.J. van der Linden X. Dai

K. Maskell C.A. Johnson

Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report

Published for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE

CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS

© Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001

First published 2001

Printed in USA at the University Press, New York

Library of Congress cataloguing in publication data available

ISBN 0521 80767 0 hardback

Reference to the whole report is:

Cover photo © Science Photo Library

We would particularly like to thank Dave Griggs, Maria

Based on a draft prepared by:

line, a filtered annual curve suppressing

(b) Additionally, the year by year (blue

list of the main proxy data in the

symbols) are supplemented with the data from direct

Radiative forcing (Wm−2)

0.3 sources throughout the globe. All three records show

lines; from which the episodic effects of volcanic

SO2 emissions (Millions of

200 Sulphur [Based upon (a) Chapter 3, Figure 3.2b (CO2);

Chapter 4, Figure 4.1a and b (CH4) and Chapter 4,

Level of Scientific Understanding

Figure 3: Many external factors force climate change.

Temperature anomalies (°C)

(c) All forcings

SO2 Emissions (Millions of tonnes of sulphur per year)

IS92a (TAR method) envelope

Confidence in observed changes Changes in Phenomenon Confidence in projected changes

Likely7 Higher maximum temperatures and more Very likely7

Very likely7 Higher minimum temperatures, fewer Very likely7

Very likely7 Reduced diurnal temperature range over Very likely7

a For more details see Chapter 2 (observations) and Chapter 9, 10 (projections).

The Emissions Scenarios of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

An increasing body of observations gives a Emissions of greenhouse gases and

A . I n t ro d u c t i o n system, a reconstruction of past changes and trends, an

Observations vis-à-vis Simulations

Palaeo & Instrumental

This Summary: Sections B + C Sections D + E Sections F + G

cooling is evident in the north-

−1 −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1