Terror Rehabilitation
Terror Rehabilitation
Terror Rehabilitation
Research Online
Faculty of Law - Papers (Archive)
2010
Publication Details
S. J. Mullins, 'Rehabilitation of Islamist terrorists: lessons from criminology' (2010) 3 (3) Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict 162-193.
There is continued investment and attention being paid to programs of disengagement and deradicalization
(D&D) for Islamist terrorists. Whilst there is some evidence of positive effects of different programs, it is
widely acknowledged that rehabilitative efforts with terrorists are in their infancy and that there is a great deal
of potential for learning, development and refinement. The present article examines rehabilitation programs
for Islamist militants in light of the literature on rehabilitative interventions for ordinary criminal offenders,
which have been in development now for more than 50 years. Principles of best practice as well as challenges
in the field of criminal corrections are outlined, and the extent to which these may be applicable in the context
of dealing with terrorists is discussed. Although the content of criminal and terrorist rehabilitation programs
will always differ, criminology can help to clarify issues, improve practice, and develop realistic expectations
for rehabilitation of Islamist terrorists.
Keywords
Law
Publication Details
S. J. Mullins, 'Rehabilitation of Islamist terrorists: lessons from criminology' (2010) 3 (3) Dynamics of
Asymmetric Conflict 162-193.
Sam Mullins
University of Wollongong
(Confirmed for publication in Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict- forthcoming)
Acknowledgment: The author wishes to acknowledge the very helpful comments of those
who reviewed this article.
Sam Mullins
Abstract
There is continued investment and attention being paid to programs of disengagement and deradicalisation
(D&D) for Islamist terrorists. Whilst there is some evidence of positive effects of different programs, it is
widely acknowledged that rehabilitative efforts with terrorists are in their infancy and that there is a great deal of
potential for learning, development and refinement. The present article examines rehabilitation programs for
Islamist militants in light of the literature on rehabilitative interventions for ordinary criminal offenders, which
have been in development now for more than fifty years. Principles of best practice as well as challenges in the
field of criminal corrections are outlined, and the extent to which these may be applicable in the context of
dealing with terrorists is discussed. Although the content of criminal and terrorist rehabilitation programs will
always differ, criminology can help to clarify issues, improve practice, and develop realistic expectations for
rehabilitation of Islamist terrorists.
Whilst processes of radicalisation have long been the subject of investigation, there is a
steadily growing interest1 in examining the opposite end of the spectrum of terrorism- how
organisations and individuals come to abandon violence and deradicalise. The goal of such
research is to learn how we might facilitate the decline of terrorist movements. One strategy
that has been gaining ground and publicity in recent years involves the implementation of
rehabilitative programs of disengagement and deradicalisation (D&D) for individual Islamist
militants.2 In particular, following pioneering efforts in Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and
Singapore, rehabilitation-style interventions have been established in Malaysia, Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan, Iraq, Great Britain and the Netherlands, and are at various stages of planning and
implementation in Afghanistan Thailand, Pakistan, and elsewhere around the world.3
Given that one of the leading figures of al-Qaeda in Yemen, Said Ali Shari (featured
in claims of responsibility for the December 25th, 2009, attempted attack on Northwest
Airlines Flight 253 by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab) is a former Guantanamo detainee who
went through a Saudi-run art-therapy rehabilitation program4 there is a pressing need to
assess existing efforts at rehabilitation.
Rehabilitation programs for jihadists are diverse, they are at different stages of
development, and have released limited details of their operation. They nevertheless share the
underlying assumption that it is possible to engage radical individuals and to persuade them
to desist from involvement with terrorist organisations, and to relinquish existing
commitment to violence. Barrett and Bokhari note that [w]hile all [D&D] programmes have
achieved progress, even despite growing experience it is still too early to say with any
certainty that any have been fully successful. There are no established criteria of success and
no standards that apply across cultures [emphasis added]. 5
Given the relative infancy of the concepts of disengagement and deradicalisation
within the field of terrorism studies, combined with the evident eagerness of governments to
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implement such interventions and the need to identify areas of best practice, the current
article seeks to explore what can be learned from the more established practice of
rehabilitation with ordinary offenders. Although the relevance of theories of criminal
desistance to understanding terrorist disengagement has previously been explored,6 parallels
between respective rehabilitative interventions have not.
First I consider distinctions between disengagement and deradicalisation at the
individual and collective levels, with a view to placing individual processes of withdrawal
from terrorism in context. Then I provide an overview of existing D&D programs, identifying
common themes in practice as well as specific issues that require further attention. Following
on from this, I describe rehabilitation efforts with ordinary offenders, including guidelines for
best practice and organisational implementation. Finally, I consider the degree to which
criminological theory and practice are relevant to working with Islamist militants, and offer
tentative recommendations for the future development of rehabilitative programs for Islamist
terrorists.
Disengagement and Deradicalisation
Building upon earlier work by Horgan,7 recent discussions of the decline of terrorism
emphasise the importance of making analytical distinctions between interrelated behavioural
and psychological, and individual and collective processes.8 The distinction between the
behavioural and psychological refers to the fact that decisions to abandon violence may
sometimes be behavioural only, e.g. for practical or involuntary reasons. Such cases do not
necessarily include an ideological reappraisal of the use of violence or related extremist
beliefs.9 Conversely, a person or group may come to believe that violence is not the answer
but remain involved, at least temporarily, for other reasons such as a sense of loyalty or for
self-preservation.10
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disengagement, involving ideological and behavioural levels, but with organisational
disagreement and factionalising, (e.g. the Egyptian Islamic Jihad) and 3. Pragmatic
disengagement, involving behavioural and organisational disengagement, but lacking an
ideological component (e.g. the Algerian Islamic Salvation Army).
Collective disengagement can occur for a variety of reasons16 and is best understood
as a complex, contextually unique set of interactions between groups of terrorists,
governments, their respective sympathisers and supporters, and competing groups.17 At the
same time, internal organisational interactions are equally important.18 Among the factors
that can contribute to the decline of terrorist organisations and decisions to disengage are both
state repression and inducements, loss of public support, loss of leadership, unsatisfactory
social relations within the organisation, failure to attract new members, recognition of failure
to achieve goals, achievement of goals, and transitioning to alternative avenues of action
(most notably political inclusion).19
While it is possible to distinguish between these factors according to whether they are
voluntary/involuntary or external/internal to the organisation, it is also quite obvious that they
are all deeply interrelated and affect one another. Moreover, many variables can have
multiple, contradictory effects regarding likelihood of disengagement (e.g. it is well known
that repressive measures can also be counterproductive20), and so must be viewed in relation
to other variables within the overall sequence and timing of events. To single out the
leadership variable at the collective level, Demant, Slootman, Buijs and Tillie21 point out that
disillusionment with leadership can lead to waning commitment and organisational
disintegration. Meanwhile, Ashour22 identifies strong, charismatic leadership as the most
crucial component of deliberate collective disengagement. Even when other variables were
present (external and internal communication, repression, and selective inducements),
disengagement in Egypt and Algeria was not successful unless directed by strong leaders.
In addition to the nature of leadership, other key variables that are likely to be relevant
across different scenarios of collective disengagement include:23 1. Organisational structure
(a more united structure should facilitate internal communication and decrease the likelihood
of factionalising), 2. Clarity of goals (more concrete goals are more negotiable and it is easier
to recognise when they are not being achieved), 3. The nature of public support (widespread
condemnation is highly influential to a groups failing attractiveness, while being tied to a
particular ethnic/social identity may increase longevity), and 4. The existence of competing
groups (the extent to which other violent or non-violent groups represent attractive
alternatives). As Cronin observes, from a counter-terrorism perspective, [t]he key is to work
synergistically with the dynamics of terrorist groups [and] to recognize the conditions under
which the [different factors identified] are either relevant or irrelevant to the exact
circumstances and nature of individual terrorist campaigns.24
Individual Disengagement
Within the broader context of collective functioning it is also vitally important to have an
appreciation of the concerns of individual group members (and especially so for planning
programs of intervention that target individuals). As with collective disengagement, Horgan
points out that individual processes can take many forms and may be physical and/or
psychological, (either of which can arise in consequence from the other) as well as voluntary
or involuntary.25 Furthermore, disengagement does not necessarily involve outright exit from
a group, but can refer to role changes within an organisation (e.g. from combative to
logistical or supportive).26 Hence disengagement at the individual, as with the collective,
level must be seen as a process, not an event,27 and may involve numerous failed attempts
before being successful.
Based upon research and intervention with violent, right-wing youth groups, Bjrgo28
highlights a number of factors affecting individual disengagement, which are also relevant to
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terrorism. These are divided into push factors, which represent dissatisfaction with the
group, and include: 1. Negative experiences (stigmatisation, legal sanctions), 2. Loss of faith
in ideology or politics, 3. The feeling that things are going too far, especially regarding
violence, 4. Disillusionment with life inside the group (lack of loyalty, paranoia), 5. Loss of
status within the group, and 6. Exhaustion or burn-out under pressure. At the same time
there are pull factors, or alternative attractions, including: 1. Longing for a normal life, 2.
Feeling too old for high-risk, demanding activity, 3. Concern for career/future, and 4.
Family/relationship responsibilities.
In researching extremist groups in the Netherlands, Demant et al29 choose to dispense
with the distinction between push and pull, but nevertheless draw attention to similar
factors. Normative (ideological) factors include rejection of violence, the realisation that the
desired future is not attainable, and a changing view of society (no longer seeing it as the
enemy, feeling a sense of belonging). Affective (social) factors affecting individual
disengagement include a grim atmosphere within the group, disappointment with peers or
leaders and internal disagreements. Finally, continuance (practical) factors are divided into
those with a direct effect and those with an indirect effect. Practical factors with a direct
effect include stigmatisation, external pressure and isolation (Bjrgos push factors), whilst
being drawn to establish ones own life exerts an indirect effect (Bjrgos pull factors).
Combined, the above authors30 also identify the following potential inhibitors or
barriers to disengagement: 1. Positive characteristics of the group (social-psychological
dependence, also highlighted as a major barrier at the collective level31), 2. Fear of negative
reprisals from other group members, 3. Loss of protection from former enemies, 4. Fear of
legal sanctions (being snitched on, pressure from police), 5. Perceived lack of social,
educational or vocational alternatives, 6. Loyalty to ones community and/or the cause, and 7.
Sunk cost, i.e. not wanting to feel like effort and costs so far have been for nothing.
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Demant et als37 identification of overlapping ideological, social and practical
concerns are also valuable. Firstly, rejection of ideology does seem to occur in some
instances but appears to play a very mixed role. For example, they report that individual
reassessments of worldview played a major role in individual disengagement from the Dutchbased Moluccan nationalist movement (no longer viewing violence as effective or legitimate,
no longer regarding the Dutch as their enemy, and reassessing the necessity and feasibility of
an independent Moluccan state).38 Likewise they report that among a small sample of former
(non-violent) Islamic radicals, rejection of the austere Salafi worldview and lifestyle and a
feeling of belonging to Dutch society were important.39
However, specific ideological concerns played less of a role for members of the leftwing squatters movement, and seemingly no role for former right-wing political activists
whose views had changed little, and only then as a result, rather than a cause of
disengagement.40 This echoes Bjrgos assertion, commenting on violent right-wing groups,
that it is probably more common that beliefs change after leaving the group, and as a
consequence, rather than before, and as a cause of leaving the group.41
Since the focus here is upon rehabilitative intervention, it must be recognised that in
cases where participants are in custody, they are involuntarily physically disengaged. Simply
being removed from their former environment may increase susceptibility to cognitive
openings42 that challenge their existing worldview, though conversely, beliefs may be
sustained via other detainees or a stubborn resolve inspired by the experience of detention
itself (and especially if treated harshly). A focus on ideology alone would therefore appear to
be a limited approach.
Social concerns appear to be at least as important as ideology with regards both to
radicalisation43 and disengagement (including potential barriers to disengagement).44 Hence
social attachments to other group members often precede ideological commitment and may
exert a sense of obligation to continue even when disillusioned with the cause. On the other
hand, unsatisfactory group relations can sew seeds of discontent which ultimately lead to
decreased commitment and deradicalisation. Horgan45 points out in this regard that a
perceived mismatch between ones idealised preconceptions about life in the group and the
far less romantic reality can be a powerful experience.
From the point of view of intervention, again it is significant that participants may be
physically distanced from former comrades in that this may remove an important boost to
their resolve. However, in order to maximise the potential of this situation, a useful tactic
would be to use questioning techniques that lead individuals to reassess their old relations and
to realise where there is disparity between what they expected or were promised and what
they actually experienced. Moreover, the importance of social ties suggests the potential
utility that these may have within D&D programs, (perhaps in a similar manner to peer
group therapy interventions with ordinary offenders, which encourage a mutually supportive
culture among participants).46 This is in line with della Portas suggestion that [a]bove
allexit paths from underground organizations appear to be influenced by the social
relationships of individuals [and] departure is made easier when collective paths are
favoured.47 This further implies that if old social ties are to be abandoned, new ones are
likely to be necessary to fill the void, and there is considerable agreement on this issue.48
This brings us to the closely related practical dimension of disengagement. At its
simplest this involves observation of the fact that people get tired of demanding and risky
activity, and at some point desire to attend to their individual prospects and other social
relations outside of the group (most notably partners and family). Hence it will make sense
for intervention programs to make alternative avenues in a security detainees life salient,
attractive, and attainable. At the same time, some form of motivational assessment would
likely be useful. If an individual remains highly motivated towards their cause at the
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continued expense of a possible normal life, then there is less likelihood of being induced
by pull factors. The challenge then appears to be in reliably identifying when an individual
is beginning to experience burn-out, or alternatively how to foster such feelings, and how
best to capitalise on this.
Existing Rehabilitation Programs for Islamist Extremists
The uniqueness and complexity of the different existing programs necessarily makes
meaningful evaluation impossible without taking an in-depth look at each individual
program. However, this level of detail is beyond the scope of the present article. Instead,
rather than describing individual intervention programs in great detail, the aim here is to
identify common themes in practice and areas for potential development. Interventions can
be and are implemented at three points in time49: 1. Prior to an offence being committed, 2.
During detention, and 3. Post-release. However, these distinctions are by no means always
clear since in some countries individuals are often detained despite having committed no
actual offence, and interventions that begin during detention often continue in some capacity
after release. Broadly speaking, it still makes sense to distinguish between preventive and
rehabilitative programs, and the focus here will primarily be upon the latter, which are
aimed at strongly suspected and incarcerated (if not convicted) Islamist terrorists.
Barrett and Bokhari50 identify four main themes in current D&D programs. These are:
1. Re-education and rehabilitation, involving efforts to dissuade Islamist radicals from their
religious/political ideological beliefs and narrative, 2. Providing a legitimate lifestyle by way
of promoting family commitments and facilitating educational and vocational opportunities,
3. Use of amnesty and restorative justice, whereby lesser crimes are forgiven and extremists
sometimes meet with victims of terrorism, and 4. Creation of legitimate opportunities to vent
or address grievances, e.g. via group discussion. In addition to these a fifth theme is the use
of psychological counselling, and a sixth theme refers to program organisation (see below).
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officer (whilst acknowledging individual differences) commented that socio-economic
approaches appear to be more effectual.61 Interestingly, disengagement efforts with rightwing extremists in Scandinavia and Germany pay little attention to ideology, and focus far
more on individuals social and life circumstances.62 This brings us to the second major
theme of providing a legitimate lifestyle, and also highlights the fact that multi-modal
approaches (which do characterise many programs) are likely to be most effective.
Providing a Legitimate Lifestyle
Providing a legitimate lifestyle addresses practical, pull factors and involves an appreciation
of the importance of social networks. As with most themes covered by D&D programs, the
Saudi initiative seems to represent the most comprehensive, well-funded approach (not to
mention being the best-documented).63 Beginning with a subjects detention, the needs of
their family are assessed and a government stipend is provided based on the rationale that
detainees would otherwise be more resentful and uncooperative, and their family would be
more susceptible to radical influences. Families are also included within the rehabilitative
process, e.g. in forging a pact of mutual accountability such that family members will be held
responsible if a former detainee absconds or re-offends.64 Once the main counselling segment
of the program is completed and an individual moves from detention through a halfway house
(called the Care Rehabilitation Centre) and on to being released, he is offered education,
vocational training, benefits, help finding accommodation, access to a vehicle, and even help
getting married.65
Of course ethical/philosophical debates aside- the level of assistance that is offered is
greatly dependent upon available resources, which are generally not as abundant as in Saudi
Arabia. Singapore has also put together a rather comprehensive intervention package,
extending many of the same benefits as the Saudis by way of numerous non-governmental
partnership agencies.66 The US program in Iraq provides literacy training, basic education
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Descriptions of the use of amnesty and restorative justice within the context of D&D
programs for individuals have been much less comprehensive. Amnesty appears to be
employed more often as a large-scale demobilisation tactic (e.g. as in Italy, Colombia, Egypt,
or Algeria). In such cases the widespread offer of amnesty has been either the basis of first
contact between governments and militants wishing to disengage, or else has affected the
release of imprisoned militants in recognition of collective disengagement.
The use of amnesty within D&D programs in order to influence individual
psychology and behaviour is less clear. For example, Boucek74 reports that detainees who
successfully complete the Saudi rehabilitation program are then eligible for release, except
for those with blood on their hands. He goes on to say that those with time left on their
sentence will not be released early.75 This implies that only those who have not been formally
sentenced are eligible for amnesty, and for those who have been sentenced, there is less
incentive to bother taking part, but also less incentive to feign genuine participation if they
do.
The general rule appears to be that clemency may apply to less serious crimes only,76
and is used at the discretion of the relevant authorities. It may involve not only legal
pardoning but may also necessitate protection or relocation of individuals in order to avoid
persecution or reprisals from enemies.77 Theoretically, amnesty shows compassion and has
the potential to change individual us and them worldviews. In accordance with labelling
theory,78 it also offers a fresh start, a chance to focus on a new life ahead. In practice, its
effects are likely to be difficult to assess and must strike a balance between goals of
deradicalisation, which it is indirectly related to, and the need for justice, most notably the
concerns of victims of terrorism. This latter point links in with the notion of restorative
justice and the potential to address the needs of victims whilst potentially furthering
individual rehabilitation.
Barrett and Bokhari mention that some programs do employ restorative justice tactics,
however, they do not provide details. Ali Imron has publicly stated that he will never stop
asking for forgiveness from victims and their families,79 but detailed descriptions of meetings
between terrorists and victims of terrorism are lacking. Beg and Bokhari80 mention an
initiative in Iraq where jihadis were encouraged to confess to their crimes and meet with the
mothers of people they had killed. Carroll81 describes one such meeting:
"You burned my heart!" wailed the mother of a murdered son, jabbing a large,
unshaven man in the chest."May God burn your heart! What kind of religion do you
have?" He stared at his feet, avoiding her eyes.
Yet this particular initiative is a rather controversial televised affair, sometimes
clearly involving elements of coercion82 (and does not appear to be related to the US-run
program for security detainees83). In Northern Ireland it has also been reported that efforts at
restorative justice have been largely unsuccessful and have sometimes caused significant
tensions.84 Shenks85 description of restorative justice with ordinary criminals gives more
insight into how these sorts of meeting might be productive. She argues that victim-offender
mediation, where the two parties engage in a series of supervised meetings and work together
towards a mutually acceptable reconciliation, has great potential in the sphere of hate-crimes.
In particular it may help offenders realise the impact of their crimes and humanise their view
of the enemy, making repeat offences less likely, whilst giving victims a sense of emotional
closure. This provides some support as well as guidelines for application with terrorists, but
has yet to be firmly established in this field, or indeed with hate-crime offenders.86 As with
D&D programs in general, it is imperative that such efforts are described in more detail and
made available for assessment.
Creation of Legitimate Opportunities to Voice Concerns
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This is another strategy that has been more obviously applied as part of large-scale
government efforts to combat terrorism. In particular this is seen in dealings with specific
terrorist organisations by facilitating the inclusion of political wings in mainstream politics,
such as in Northern Ireland. It seems to be something that numerous Islamist groups at
varying stages of disengagement desire, but that has rarely been granted.87 As a counterterrorism strategy, it is supported by the fact that for many, terrorism is the first resort.88
Often terrorists will not have tried alternative means of affecting change, and may therefore
be open to less harmful and more effective strategies.
Regarding D&D interventions, the only example utilising this strategy cited by Barrett
and Bokhari89 is the Tajik Secular-Islamic Dialogue Project. The Tajik project brings together
different groups within society to seek means of coexistence and to identify and discuss
issues that create mistrust and tension90 and to establish solutions. It apparently does not,
however, include more radical, violent Islamists. Efforts in the Netherlands and UK also try
to create legitimate opportunities in so far as they promote democratic participation. These
are more preventative projects though, and so the encouragement of legitimate means of
protest remains untested within the realms of individual rehabilitation. In addition it is
important to bear in mind that if such opportunities are essentially empty and do not result
in any change, they may simply fuel frustration and eventually lead to a return to violence. It
is thus important for ex-militants to have realistic expectations about the nature of nonviolent political activism.
Psychological Counselling
A number of programs utilise mental health professionals to evaluate participants and to
address any needs or disorders that they may have. For example, the Saudi program includes
a team of psychologists responsible for assessing psychological well-being and genuineness
of program participation as well as establishing relations with detainees families.91 In the
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Government involvement may thus affect initial levels of trust in the scheme from
program participants. It is obviously less likely that militants will listen to the ideological or
religious interpretations of people they believe are their opponents. In reality though, even
non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in this context must have government approval to
be involved and are arguing for a position that is in line with state reasoning vis--vis
terrorism. Even NGOs are not beyond suspicion.
The key to overcoming this scepticism appears to be how detainees are treated and
how messages are communicated to them. In Indonesia, where the police play an important
role in the initiative, officers are courteous and respectful, and take time out to pray alongside
extremists as fellow Muslims. This helps to break down misconceptions of the police as
thoghut or un-Islamic, which may be an important first step to opening up lines of
communication.97 Similarly, in Saudi Arabia there is a clear distinction between interrogation
and later stages of help, but a persisting emphasis upon being nice to prisoners. The idea is
to get across to them that they are not being punished, but rather that they have been led
astray and need to be helped back onto the correct Islamic path.98 This appears to be a
common approach in the Muslim world.99 Western authorities can also try to erode
misconceptions through compassionate actions, and employ Muslims in combating
extremism.100 But the challenge is slightly different in that the government itself is not
Islamic and it may therefore be harder to close the distance between them.
In line with the psychology of persuasion, it is thus important to attend to both the
content and the source of the messages being advocated.101 Program staff members must be
credible, and therefore tend to include Muslim scholars or Sheikhs, and sometimes exextremists. Generally speaking though, D&D programs are a multi-disciplinary affair. In
addition to security personnel and Islamic counsellors, professionals with a psychological
background are also directly involved in some interventions (see above). This is likely to be
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change. Likewise, Speckhard asserts that programs must develop reliable ways of classifying
program participants according to their level of radicalisation and that this requires an
assessment tool to be used before, during and after treatment.105 Unless such data are
recorded and measures of change are devised, program appraisals will remain relatively
unsophisticated.106
At present, risk-assessment generally appears to be a case of clinical judgement by
those responsible for implementing specific programs and involves taking stock of a number
of different factors which do not necessarily involve any clear, standardised system of
measurement, nor do they necessarily relate to one another or to theoretical explanations of
terrorism- in any systematic way. In both mental health practice more generally, and in
rehabilitation efforts with ordinary offenders, clinical judgement has been shown to be
inferior to actuarial assessment using standardised tools that are structured, quantitative, and
linked to relevant criteria.107 There is clearly a desperate need for improvement in the
assessment of terrorists (more below) and accordingly, current research is addressing this
issue. Speckhard, and Kruglanski and Gelfand are clearly pioneering in this respect but
precise details of their methods have yet to be published. Of particular note in this area is
Pressmans work in developing the Violent Extremism Risk Assessment (VERA), which is
an attempt at establishing a Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ) tool for use with
terrorist populations.108 Pressmans approach is a prime example of the underlying argument
in this paper (i.e. that terrorism researchers can learn from criminology) in that it is inspired
by existing, validated SPJ tools for violent offenders, and yet the particular content of the
assessment is appropriately informed by theory and research on terrorism. Although still in
the early stages of development this is a step in the right direction.
Program success is undoubtedly related to who participants are, and what risk they
pose. It may also incorporate varying levels of intermediate and superseding goals.
Intermediate goals might include behavioural changes whilst incarcerated (e.g. increased
interaction and openness with staff) as well as changes in self-reported attitudes. The
ultimate, ideal goal is of course permanent behavioural disengagement from involvement
with Islamist terrorists- no collaboration with them, no supporting or promoting them, and
especially no violence. The focus thus far has been upon recidivism in terms of committing a
security-related offence; however details have been vague and it is unclear whether the
distinction is always made between suspicion, arrest, conviction or some other form of
confirmation. Table 1 below illustrates known numbers of participants, releases and repeat
offenders in current D&D programs where some information is available.109
Table 1. Numbers of participants, releases & repeat offenders in current D&D programs up
until the end of 2007 (mid-2008 for Iraq).
It is important to note that only in the cases of Saudi Arabia and Yemen110 are the
releases explicitly cited to be a direct result of program participation (e.g. the 150 released in
Indonesia were largely part of general amnesties111). These two cases and that of Iraq are the
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only ones for which rates of recidivism have been reported (it was more recently made public
that at least 14 individuals jailed for terrorism offences in Indonesia have reoffended, but it is
unclear whether they were among those released prior to 2008112). In the case of Saudi Arabia
these numbers refer to individuals re-arrested for security-related offences.113 Meanwhile in
Yemen recidivism figures refer to two former program participants killed in Iraq114 and it is
unspecified what the 12 Iraqis listed were rearrested for. These translate into extremely low
rates of recidivism, and although figures are not reported for the other cases it is worth noting
that there are high levels of monitoring and continued restrictions on the movements of
former detainees in these countries.
Nevertheless, since base-rates of re-offending are unknown for populations of
terrorists, and there are no control groups for comparison, these rates do not necessarily
reflect a significant effect of the respective interventions. Speckhard reports that prior to the
implementation of the program in Iraq, the usual recidivism rate from previous years [was]
close to 200,115 which is encouraging but this by itself cannot be considered a measurement
of efficacy. The period of time since released especially without supervision- is also
unknown, but likely no more than two or three years in the longest cases. Finally, offences
committed in relation to original offences are unknown- for example an increase in severity
might indicate a detrimental effect of intervention for those individuals, whilst a decrease
might still be considered a positive effect despite failure. Degrees of recidivism therefore
need to be defined.
Summary of Existing Programs
In summary, existing programs vary a great deal in almost every respect. A focus on ideology
and religion has so far been the most promoted aspect of programs, and a great deal of effort
has been put into enlisting credible sources of information or program interlocutors116, and
developing convincing arguments. Based on theoretical understanding of involvement in
extremist organisations, and accounts of why people leave them, it is also vitally important to
address social concerns, which most programs do. It is tempting to compare these two
approaches and ask which is most useful, however this would be counterproductive and miss
the point that both are important, and it is the combination that is most likely to be effective.
Other approaches, such as restorative justice techniques, and providing alternative avenues of
expression are certainly promising but are as yet underutilised and poorly documented, while
psychological counselling techniques, although potentially valuable, are not always clearly
theoretically relevant or coordinated.
A commendable point is that programs do appear to some extent to utilise the
potential for groups of individuals to support each others individual rehabilitation. This is
apparent in the fact that intervention seems to typically involve a good deal of group
interaction. However, there may yet be further opportunities to cultivate mutual self-helping
(e.g. by way of enlisting the help of detainees who are further along in the program to
welcome newcomers). Equally, the potential for negative influences within groups must be
recognised and plans for dealing with this developed.
Referring to other theoretical implications, discussed above, there are no reports that
the collective situation of relevant terrorist organisations are monitored in order to be
exploited in facilitating individual reform (although this might still take place in practice).
Also, there is only limited evidence that program staff attempt to highlight negative aspects
of extremist involvement (though again, intuitively this seems likely). One example is the
Saudi effort, which includes an emphasis upon ways in which recruits are manipulated by
terrorist organisations.117
There is a continued need to improve risk assessment and to be able to identify and
cultivate feelings of burn-out, neither of which are dealt with in detail in existing descriptions
of D&D programs. Finally, from an academic and perhaps idealistic perspective (since this
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conflicts with security-related and political concerns) there is a great need to improve the
quality of available information in order to facilitate more accurate evaluation. Indeed, the
preceding overview belies the complexity involved in each program and detailed case studies
are required in order to advance current levels of understanding. Moving beyond individual
assessments in the search for common factors relating to positive outcomes, analysts will also
be faced with the challenge of coming up with a framework that is able to accommodate the
vast differences between programs. Horgan and Braddock suggest that Multi Attribute Utility
Theory (MAUT) might be useful in this regard, although they acknowledge that it is a
daunting task.118
Initial, optimistic impressions of these interventions have been based on extremely
limited data and an understandable enthusiasm for a new and exciting area of innovation in
counter-terrorism. However, as practitioners and analysts come to grips with the complexity
of conceptual issues involved, the general outlook has become more critical.119 Although
rehabilitation programs for ordinary offenders are by no means free from controversy, there is
a wealth of relevant experience, theoretical development and research that can be drawn
upon, that may help clarify certain concepts and inspire new ways of thinking about
rehabilitating terrorists.
Rehabilitation Programs with Ordinary Offenders
Having described key themes in practice with Islamist terrorists, it is useful to consider how
these programs compare to the rehabilitation of ordinary offenders. Whilst this is an
extremely diverse field120 that is far from being an exact science, there is over fifty
cumulative years of research to build upon. Of course working with everyday criminals and
terrorists is not the same, and rehabilitation programs cannot simply be cut and pasted from
one context to the other. But with careful consideration for similarities and differences (in
terms of subjects, content, organisation and culture), it is possible that those with an interest
in D&D programs can learn from the experience of criminology. In particular this may help
to highlight the multitude of conceptual and practical issues involved, to mould realistic
expectations about the challenges ahead, and to generate ideas for improving current practice
and evaluation. Specific offender rehabilitation programs (such as Reasoning and
Rehabilitation, Sex Offender Treatment Programs) are of interest and are worth examining on
an individual basis. However, the nature of offences and the specific content of programs will
always be different. Therefore the aim here is to give an overview of principles of best
practice in criminal rehabilitation, as well as relevant challenges. This will be followed by a
consideration of the extent to which these principles might apply to working with Islamist
terrorists.
A Brief History of Criminal Rehabilitation
Psychological approaches to offender rehabilitation gained momentum in the 1950s and
60s. However, from the 1970s onwards the idea that nothing works took hold, based
upon a particular review of treatment by Martinson.121 This conclusion was later recanted and
the original paper criticised,122 but at the time it gelled with a shift to the political right in the
US and UK, and with sociological theories pointing to the role of society over individuals in
causing crime (criminologys root causes).123 There was a resurgence in the rehabilitative
ideal in both policy and practice during the 1990s, inspired by a growing body of metaanalytical reviews demonstrating a consistent impact upon recidivism.124 Since then a
plethora of rehabilitative programs has emerged, some targeting specific types of offender,
others more generalised.
Efficacy
Amidst the diversity of programs in existence there is variation in subjects (different types of
offenders) content, organisation, setting, quality of implementation, and dosage (average
time spent in treatment). Program evaluations are similarly diverse, methods of measurement
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and chosen criteria vary widely, and detail is often lacking, making it difficult to discern
meaning from individual assessments or to compare multiple studies. In trying to overcome
the shortcomings of individual studies criminologists have used meta-analysis to
quantitatively assess program efficacy at the aggregate level. This enables calculation of an
overall effect size125 on recidivism despite varying operational definitions in different studies,
and further enables researchers to establish correlations between factors of interest (e.g.
different types of offenders) and the overall result, thus indicating whether or not they have a
moderating effect on treatment.126 Although this is not currently feasible to evaluate D&D
programs (a minimum requirement is a significant number of detailed assessments with
relatively large samples)127 it is widely used in criminology. The average effect size produced
in meta-analytical review is a reduction between ten and twelve percent in recidivism across
different types of offenders compared to matched control groups.128
This may not seem impressive but nevertheless represents a significant impact in
terms of costs to individuals and society. Moreover, meta-analysis of the effects of punitive
approaches and incarceration consistently demonstrate that this does not reduce recidivism,
and in fact often increases rates of re-offending (Lipsey and Cullen129 found this kind of
boomerang effect in 5 out of 7 meta-analyses of incarceration). Furthermore, programs which
adhere to increasingly established principles of best practice (see below) have been shown to
reduce recidivism on average by 17-35%.130 The context of this result is that studies often
report quite high rates of recidivism among criminal populations- it is not uncommon to come
across reports of more than 40% of control groups being rearrested or even reconvicted
within 12 months of release, with increasing likelihood of recidivism over the next couple of
years.131
In a UK Home Office study examining the effects of Cognitive Behavioural
Treatment (CBT) for a variety of different adult offenders, reconviction rates at two-year
follow up among the control groups ranged from 8% to 80% depending upon risk-level (for
the treatment groups this range was 5% to 75% but with larger reductions occurring in
medium risk-level groups).132 Recidivism is thus a serious problem among criminal
populations and is not easily overcome: indeed, despite continued efforts to improve criminal
rehabilitation and even under ideal circumstances- it is taken as a given that an often
significant proportion of criminals will reoffend. Whats more, precisely who will and will
not reoffend cannot be predicted with absolute certainty.133
Despite overall consensus that criminal rehabilitation can be effective, there are some
important caveats. Critics of the findings from meta-analysis point out that these results are
potentially misleading since they are mostly based on programs which have been set up
specifically for demonstration and research.134 As such they have adequate resources and are
often run by the researchers who designed the program, along with appropriately trained staff
(therapeutic integrity- see below), while real life, routine programs face numerous
organisational difficulties, they experience drift away from the original plan over time, and
have been found to produce a mean effect size half that of research programs.135 Similarly,
Lowenkamp136 found that the vast majority of almost 400 individual offender treatment
programs assessed using the Correctional Program Assessment Inventory (CPAI-2000) did
not receive a passing grade, and Gendreau, Goggin and Smith137 report that seventy percent
of 282 programs assessed using an earlier version of the CPAI also failed. The gap between
theory and research on one hand, and practice on the other, is thought to be enormous (see
Gendreau et al138 for specific program deficits) and one of the greatest challenges for
researchers in this field is trying to bridge that gap.139
A related point that is important to appreciate is that the positive effects found in
meta-analysis are at the aggregate level. Lipsey and Cullen thus point out that no [particular]
programs or program types have been identified that consistently produce positive effects140
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[emphasis added]. Criminologists are thus still striving to improve their understanding of
rehabilitation and have devoted considerable effort to identifying factors which relate to more
successful treatments (larger effect sizes on recidivism) within meta-analyses. This had led to
the identification of several principles of best practice.
What Works and What Doesnt
Despite an inability to come up with the perfect program, general agreement has now
emerged as to the components of more (and less) effective rehabilitative interventions.141
Less effective sometimes even counterproductive- practices include psychodynamic or nondirective therapies, a focus on punishment, and a failure to address issues related to
offending.
The following are consistently cited as being more effective at reducing recidivism:142
High treatment integrity (the extent to which the program is conducted according to
theory and design).
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Andrews, Bonta and Wormith identify eight empirically supported risk/need factors, which
they refer to as the Central Eight. The Big Four among these criminogenic variables
include:
Offence history,
Among these variables, only offence history is static and therefore unchangeable. The
inclusion of dynamic factors enables repeated assessment of change and therefore of
treatment impact over time. The remaining four risk/need factors are also dynamic and
include: individual substance abuse, family/marital relationships, school or work life, and
leisure activities.154 Importantly, several minor, non-criminogenic needs are also identified,
which if targeted in intervention may improve an individuals well-being, but are unlikely to
affect offending behaviour. These include self-esteem, personal/emotional distress, major
mental disorder, and physical health.155 Smith et al report that although relatively few metaanalyses have been conducted which specifically examine the need principle, the current
evidence is strongly supportive.156
The Responsivity Principle
Lastly, the principle of Responsivity states that programs must be implemented in a
style that maximises learning potential. General responsivity calls for the use of cognitivebehavioural techniques and social learning, utilising such methods as modelling, gradual
shaping of behaviour through reinforcement and identification and modification of
maladaptive thought patterns via cognitive restructuring. Specific responsivity suggests that
treatment delivery (including matching subjects to suitable staff members) must be adapted to
suit individual offender characteristics.157 Smith et als recent review of meta-analytical
studies reveals that cognitive-behavioural interventions for offenders have been consistently
found to result in greater reductions in recidivism than interventions that do not employ these
methods. Specific responsivity, however, remains under-researched.
Program Design, Implementation and Evaluation
RNR principles and other recommendations relating to style of delivery can be
considered content variables. Meanwhile, organisational variables relate to issues of design,
implementation and evaluation. Cooke and Philip158 provide an extremely useful breakdown
of how to ensure treatment integrity through solid organisation and although some of their
advice might seem generic (e.g. need for adequate resources, potential negative impact of
intra-organisational conflict) a thorough approach avoids making assumptions and ensures
that details are not overlooked. Three key areas stand out as particularly relevant: 1. The
theoretical framework should be empirically validated, and what exactly will be targeted
and how- must be clearly identified; 2. There must be a comprehensive program manual that
is well-researched and details the design, setting up, running and evaluation of the program
(including such details as number of planned sessions, and how to achieve stated objectives);
and 3. Monitoring and evaluation of all aspects of the programs are fundamentally important
to its success. The latter helps maintain program integrity and assessment of whether the
intervention is affecting a) short-term process variables, b) outcome variables or ultimate
goals, and c) whether it is cost-effective.159
Gendreau, Goggin and Smith160 take an equally detailed approach in offering advice
on the implementation of programs in the real world and identify four key areas to attend to
relating to organisational factors, the program itself, the agent of change (who is responsible
for running the program), and staffing activities.161 They also emphasise the importance of
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program evaluation and suggest the use of the CPAI for this purpose. The latest version of
this tool, the CPAI-2000,162 includes 131 items and assesses eight different domains: 1.
Organisational culture, 2. Program implementation/maintenance, 3. Management/staff
characteristics, 4. Client risk-need practices, 5. Program characteristics, 6. Core correctional
practices, 7. Interagency communication, and 8. Evaluation. CPAI scores have been found to
relate to reductions in recidivism, thus adding validity both to this assessment, and by proxy
to the what works literature on which it is based.163
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assessed at intake and dealt with accordingly (hence the need for some flexibility and
individual tailoring of treatment).
It is also worth noting that criminals and terrorists show a great deal of similarity in a
number of other ways. In particular they show similar systems of social influence and
organisation, they show similar pathways into their respective illegal activities, and their
specific sense of social identity is also important.175 Perhaps the most significant difference
from a psychological perspective is in particular aspects of social identity. The fact that
terrorists feel that they represent a wider collective, and that they often have altruistic,
politicised motivations, separates them from most criminals. However, this should be looked
upon as a potential asset to be exploited in rehabilitative interventions, for example in
promoting alternative avenues of pro-social action.
Finally, LaFree and Miller176 recently explored the utility of criminological accounts
of desistance in ordinary offenders for understanding similar processes in terrorism, and
found this to be a useful theoretical approach. Similarly, Horgan177 explores the concept of
secondary (i.e. long-term) desistance in ordinary criminals for understanding terrorist
disengagement. Hence there are parallels apparent in criminal and terrorist
desistance/disengagement, and they may cease their respective activities for some of the same
reasons.
As a caveat, it is not the intention here to suggest that criminal and terrorist
populations are the same (even within broad samples), that differences are not significant, or
that practice with offenders will directly apply to Islamist militants. Rather, the aim is to
demonstrate that there is sufficient similarity that lessons learned from working with ordinary
offenders will be relevant to working with Islamist terrorists, although the exact structure and
content of programs will always be context-specific. Indeed, even though Pressman
emphasises the differences between the two populations, she comes to the same conclusion in
this respect.178
Applicability of Principles of Best Practice
Firstly, in terms of what doesnt work with ordinary offenders, the same seems likely to hold
true for terrorists. There is no reason to believe that psychodynamic or nondirective
approaches, a punitive approach, or failing to address needs directly related to militant
behaviour will be effective in D&D programs. These are important lessons to learn given that
such approaches can sometimes increase recidivism, which would be disastrous. What not to
do is thus crucial, and although it applies across different areas of intervention, it may be
particularly relevant to psychological counselling with Islamist terrorists. The issue is not
only how any psychological disorders or deficits are addressed but also whether or not they
are relevant to offending behaviour, and whether they represent appropriate targets for
intervention aimed at reducing recidivism. This will likely be context-specific and will
require careful research. We now turn to what works in criminology.
Risk
Regarding the Risk principle, the question remains as to whether it would be more
productive to focus upon higher risk (more committed) cases. Of course, as with criminals,
there are those who are beyond rehabilitation, but [e]ven the beliefs of deeply committed
extremists may be subject to more change than we have expected.179 Yet D&D interventions
so far seem to have shied away from higher risk cases (except for those who have seemingly
self-rehabilitated), and there is thus a good possibility that resources are being used
inefficiently. Accounts of the programs in Singapore and Iraq do mention that different levels
of risk are distinguished;180 however, in order to assess whether the Risk principle applies in
terrorism, it is first necessary to develop reliable and valid risk-assessment tools. This follows
Kruglanski and Gelfands181 argument for a deradicalisation index and Pressmans182 efforts
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to develop a risk-assessment tool for violent political extremists. Risk-assessment must take
into account issues such as militant history (roles played and length of time in the
organisation), which is static, but also dynamic factors such as specific patterns of ideological
belief, (which may be reflected in use of language as reflected in explanatory styles or
personal narratives183). It should include an assessment of motivations for initial and
continued involvement (economic, ideological/ religious, and social), as well as motivation
for changing ones current situation (readiness for disengagement). This should form the
corner stone of treatment design for specific individuals.184
Without detracting from the importance of developing systematic risk-assessment for
Islamist militants, it is equally important to have realistic expectations about what such tools
might achieve. Decades of research and practice with ordinary offenders has achieved only
moderate predictability and part of the problem here in addition to the complexity of human
behaviour- are the relatively low base-rates of criminal behaviour, which necessarily reduce
the likelihood of predictive ability. As Roberts and Horgan185 point out, it depends upon
context and the specific behaviours that are being predicted, but the generally very low rate of
violent terrorist activity (the tip of the iceberg) means that this will be exceptionally
difficult to predict, perhaps even more so than criminal violence. This is not to say that
terrorist risk-assessment will be impossible or fruitless indeed it should be expected to
produce significant advantages over unstructured clinical judgements- but it will be far from
infallible.
Need
As for Need, it seems equally important for D&D programs to focus upon factors
which directly relate to involvement in Islamist terrorism. Descriptions of these programs do
indicate that this is the case. Both cognitions (ideology, beliefs), and social circumstances
(peer associations, family) are addressed. In terms of the Central Eight and Big Four
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radicals. Efforts to maximise potential for learning and persuasion will likely bolster existing
and future efforts at terrorist rehabilitation.
Organisation and Evaluation
Organisational principles of best practice may have direct applicability in many cases. The
contributions from criminologists on this topic provide a framework for thinking about how
to design and run a rehabilitative program for terrorists. These and other accounts (such as
how to go about assessing cost-effectiveness188) should be referred to and then adapted
according to the unique circumstances and treatment setting. In particular, the three key
points discussed above are especially relevant; namely the need for an empirically validated
theoretical framework, the need for a detailed program manual, and the need for built-in
evaluation as a means of monitoring program integrity and validity. Adopting these measures
although by no means a straightforward affair- will help to professionalise rehabilitative
practice with Islamist terrorists and will be fundamental to assessing efficacy and improving
practice.
With these principles in mind it is of course important to recall that there is a vast
variation in current D&D programs, some of which are ad hoc and have little in the way of
discernible structure. Just as there is a deep and persisting gap between theory and practice in
offender rehabilitation, there is likely to be an even greater one in the field of terrorism.
Summary and Conclusion
The present article has offered an overview of current practice in rehabilitation of Islamist
terrorists, and has added to the pioneering work of numerous others by examining the
potential for the rehabilitation of ordinary offenders to inform parallel practice with terrorists.
Individual and collective processes of disengagement and deradicalisation are intimately
related to one another. Existing D&D programs for Islamist extremists are aimed at the
individual level of disengagement and deradicalisation, but should also show an awareness of
how this might relate to the wider collective. Existing interventions focus on two main areas:
1. Re-education and rehabilitation, and 2. Providing a legitimate lifestyle (ideological and
social components, respectively). Psychological counselling is also a component in more
developed programs. Restorative justice practices and providing legitimate opportunities for
protest or action show promise but as yet appear to be underutilised. Organisationally,
programs show mixed governmental and non-governmental involvement, and often there is
multi-agency cooperation. Continuing issues in D&D practice include the (low) level of
militancy of participants, initial and ongoing risk assessment, and program transparency and
evaluation.
Rehabilitation programs for ordinary offenders are extremely diverse, with diverse
outcomes. However, a greater level of knowledge exists about what does and doesnt work,
and how principles of best practice should be implemented. The specific content of these
programs compared to working with terrorists will always differ, but there is sufficient
similarity between participant populations and program aims that lessons may be learned
from the criminal context. The principles of Risk, Need and Responsivity all show potential
application in the rehabilitation of Islamist terrorists, and to some extent are already being
implemented, or are in development. D&D programs may face many of the same
organisational challenges and may learn directly from principles of best practice in this
regard, although unique contexts will also present substantial challenges. It is equally
important to be aware of practices which may be detrimental to rehabilitative efforts, and
lessons learned from criminology are also relevant here.
In addition to providing a framework for understanding and increasing awareness of
the multitude of different issues involved in rehabilitative practice, criminologys value is
that it also illuminates many of the same conceptual and practical obstacles that will plague
parallel practice with Islamist terrorists. This in itself is sobering; however it is even more
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daunting to consider that many of these obstacles (e.g. difficulties in defining such
fundamental criteria as offences, recidivism or desistance; lack of data; coming up with
viable methodologies for research and evaluation; having to cope with organisational politics)
are amplified with terrorism. A comparative perspective is thus also important for
comprehending the scale of certain challenges and for shaping realistic expectations about
what might be achieved. In the long run this may be crucial to the continued survival of these
programs.
The rehabilitation of Islamist terrorists is a practice in its infancy. It faces many
unique challenges but can equally learn from related practices. It also presents unique
opportunities to understand more about extremism, and given the special status of terrorists
and currently high level of resources being invested- may feed back into what we know about
rehabilitation more generally. As with crime, both reform and relapse are processes, not
single events, and failures will be inevitable. The enormity of the task should not deter
researchers from striving to advance the field; rather it is an indication of the necessity for a
concerted and thoughtful drive towards progress.
Finally, as a caveat, it should be emphasised that this has been a very general review.
Principles of best practice with offenders are based primarily upon white, male, adult
offenders in the Western world (thereby limiting transferability), and information on the
specific content of D&D programs is generally lacking. What is needed is a detailed, in-depth
consideration for how specific techniques might apply in culturally unique situations, along
with greater theoretical development in order to build a more comprehensive understanding
of individual disengagement and deradicalisation.
Notes
1
See Tore Bjrgo and John Horgan, eds, Leaving Terrorism Behind: Individual and Collective
Disengagement (Oxon and New York: Routledge, 2009); John Horgan, The Psychology of Terrorism (Oxon:
Routledge, 2005), 140-157; John Horgan, Walking Away from Terrorism: Accounts of Disengagement from
Radical and Extremist Movements (Oxon and New York: Routledge, 2009).
2
Richard Barrett and Laila Bokhari, Deradicalization and Rehabilitation Programmes Targeting
Religious Terrorists and Extremists in the Muslim World: An Overview, in Leaving Terrorism Behind:
Individual and Collective Disengagement, eds. Tore Bjrgo and John Horgan. (Oxon and New York: Routledge,
2009), 170-180.
3
Ibid; International Conference on Terrorist Rehabilitation, February 24-26, 2009, Singapore; Peter
Neumann, Prisons and Terrorism: Radicalisation and De-radicalisation in 15 Countries (London: International
Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence, 2010), accessed September 5, 2010,
http://icsr.info/publications/papers/1277699166PrisonsandTerrorismRadicalisationandDeradicalisationin15Coun
tries.pdf; Lorenzo Vidino, A Preliminary Assessment of Counter-Radicalization in the Netherlands, CTC
Sentinel, 1 (2008) 12-14, accessed June 30, 2009, http://www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/.
4
Brian Ross, Joseph Rhee and Rehab El-Buri, Al Qaeda Leader behind Northwest Flight 253 Terror
Plot Was Released by U.S. ABC News, December 28, 2009, accessed December 31, 2009,
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/northwest-flight-253-al-qaeda-leaders-terror-plot/story?id=9434065.
5
Barrett and Bokhari, Deradicalization and Rehabilitation Programmes Targeting Religious Terrorists
and Extremists in the Muslim World 174.
6
Horgan, Walking Away from Terrorism: Accounts of Disengagement from Radical and Extremist
Movements, 139-162; Gary LaFree and Erin Miller, Desistance from Terrorism: What Can We Learn from
Criminology? Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, 1 (2009): 203-230.
7
John Horgan, Leaving Terrorism Behind in Terrorists, Victims and Society: Psychological
Perspectives on Terrorism and its Consequences, ed. Andrew Silke. (London: John Wiley, 2003) in Horgan,
Walking Away from Terrorism, 151; Horgan, The Psychology of Terrorism, 140-157.
8
See Omar Ashour, The De-Radicalization of Jihadists: Transforming Armed Islamist Movements
(New York: Routledge, 2009);Tore Bjrgo and John Horgan, eds, Leaving Terrorism Behind: Individual and
Collective Disengagement (Oxon and New York: Routledge, 2009); Froukje Demant, Marieke Slootman, Frank
Buijs and Jean Tillie, Decline and Disengagement: An Analysis of Processes of Deradicalisation, (Amsterdam:
Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies, 2008), accessed June 20, 2009,
http://english.nctb.nl/search.aspx?simpleSearch=Disengagementandzoekknop=Search; Horgan, Walking Away
from Terrorism, 20-39, 151-154; Darcy Noricks, Disengagement and Deradicalization: Processes and
Programs in Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together, eds. Paul Davis and Kim
Cragin (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2009), accessed September 5, 2010,
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG849.pdf; Anne Speckhard, Prison and Community
Based Disengagement and De-Radicalization Programs for Extremists Involved in Militant Jihadi Terrorism
Ideologies and Activities in Protecting the Homeland from International and Domestic Terrorism Threats:
Current Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Root Causes, the Role of Ideology, and Programs for CounterRadicalization and Disengagement, eds. Laurie Fenstermacher, Larrie Kuznar, Tom Rieger and Anne
Speckhard (Washington: DC: Department of Defense, 2009) 347-362, accessed September 5, 2010,
http://www.start.umd.edu/start/publications/U_Counter_Terrorism_White_Paper_Final_January_2010.pdf.
9
Tore Bjrgo and John Horgan, Introduction in Leaving Terrorism Behind: Individual and
Collective Disengagement, eds. Tore Bjrgo and John Horgan (Oxon and New York: Routledge, 2009), 1-14;
Horgan, The Psychology of Terrorism, 140-157; Horgan, Walking Away from Terrorism, 20-39, 151-154.
10
See below for barriers to disengagement.
11
Bjrgo and Horgan, Introduction; Horgan, The Psychology of Terrorism, 140-157; Horgan,
Walking Away from Terrorism, 20-39, 151-154.
12
Bjrgo and Horgan, Introduction, 3; Demant et al, Decline and disengagement, 13.
13
John Horgan and Kurt Braddock, Rehabilitating the Terrorists?: Challenges in Assessing the
Effectiveness of De-radicalization Programs Terrorism and Political Violence, 22 (2010): 267-291.
14
For example, see Donatella della Porta, Leaving Underground Organizations: A Sociological
Analysis of the Italian Case in Leaving Terrorism Behind: Individual and Collective Disengagement, eds. Tore
Bjrgo and John Horgan (Oxon and New York: Routledge, 2009), 66-87; Diaa Rashwan, The Renunciation of
Violence by Egyptian Jihadi Organizations in Leaving Terrorism Behind: Individual and Collective
Disengagement, eds. Tore Bjrgo and John Horgan (Oxon and New York: Routledge, 2009), 113-132; Marcella
Ribetti Disengagement and Beyond: A Case Study of Demobilization in Colombia in Leaving Terrorism
43
Sam Mullins
Behind: Individual and Collective Disengagement, eds. Tore Bjrgo and John Horgan (Oxon and New York:
Routledge, 2009), 152-169.
15
Ashour, The De-Radicalization of Jihadists.
16
See Audrey Kurth Cronin, How al-Qaida Ends: The Decline and Demise of Terrorist Groups
International Security, 31 (2006): 7-48; Audrey Kurth Cronin, How Terrorist Campaigns End in Leaving
Terrorism Behind: Individual and Collective Disengagement, eds. Tore Bjrgo and John Horgan, (Oxon and
New York: Routledge, 2009), 49-65; Demant et al, Decline and disengagement; Horgan, Walking Away from
Terrorism, 20-27.
17
Clark McCauley, Group Desistance from Terrorism: A Dynamical Perspective Dynamics of
Asymmetric Conflict, 1 (2008): 269-293.
18
Ashour, The De-Radicalization of Jihadists; Demant et al, Decline and disengagement.
19
Ibid; Ibid; Cronin, How al-Qaida Ends; Cronin, How Terrorist Campaigns End; McCauley,
Group Desistance from Terrorism.
20
Ibid; Ibid; Ibid; Ibid; Ibid.
21
Demant et al, Decline and disengagement.
22
Ashour, The De-Radicalization of Jihadists.
23
Ashour, The De-Radicalization of Jihadists; Demant et al, Decline and disengagement; Cronin,
How al-Qaida Ends; Cronin, How Terrorist Campaigns End; McCauley, Group Desistance from
Terrorism.
24
Cronin, How Terrorist Campaigns End 65.
25
John Horgan, Individual Disengagement: A Psychological Analysis in Leaving Terrorism Behind:
Individual and Collective Disengagement, eds. Tore Bjrgo and John Horgan (Oxon and New York: Routledge,
2009), 17-29; Horgan, The Psychology of Terrorism, 140-157.
26
Ibid.
27
Horgan, Walking Away from Terrorism, 156-157.
28
Tore Bjrgo, Processes of Disengagement from Violent Groups of the Extreme Right in Leaving
Terrorism Behind: Individual and Collective Disengagement, eds. Tore Bjrgo and John Horgan (Oxon and
New York: Routledge, 2009), 30-48.
29
Demant et al, Decline and disengagement, 111-118, 119-156.
30
Bjrgo, Processes of Disengagement from Violent Groups of the Extreme Right; Demant et al,
Decline and disengagement.
31
Max Abrahms, What Terrorists Really Want: Terrorist Motives and Counterterrorism Strategy
International Security, 32 (2008): 78-105.
32
Demant et al, Decline and disengagement, 154-156.
33
See della Porta, Leaving Underground Organizations: A Sociological Analysis of the Italian Case.
34
Neumann, Prisons and Terrorism: Radicalisation and De-radicalisation in 15 Countries.
35
Bjrgo, Processes of Disengagement from Violent Groups of the Extreme Right..
36
Demant et al, Decline and disengagement, 155-156.
37
Ibid, 119-156.
38
Demant et al, Decline and disengagement, 119-156.
39
Ibid, 126-130.
40
Ibid, 129.
41
Bjrgo, Processes of Disengagement from Violent Groups of the Extreme Right 37.
42
See Quintan Wiktorowicz, Radical Islam Rising: Muslim Extremism in the West (Lanham: Rowman
and Littlefield, 2005).
43
E.g. John Horgan, The Psychology of Terrorism (New York: Routledge, 2005); Clark McCauley and
Sophia Moskalenko, Individual and Group Mechanisms of Radicalization in Protecting the Homeland from
International and Domestic Terrorism Threats: Current Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Root Causes, the
Role of Ideology, and Programs for Counter-Radicalization and Disengagement, eds. Laurie Fenstermacher,
Larrie Kuznar, Tom Rieger and Anne Speckhard (Washington: DC: Department of Defense, 2009), 82-91; Marc
Sageman, Understanding Terror Networks (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2004).
44
Bjrgo, Processes of Disengagement from Violent Groups of the Extreme Right; Demant et al,
Decline and disengagement, 155-156; Horgan, Individual Disengagement; della Porta, Leaving Underground
Organizations: A Sociological Analysis of the Italian Case 66-87.
45
Horgan, Individual Disengagement.
46
See John Gobbs, Granville Potter, Albert Liau, Angie Schook and Steven Wightkin, Peer Group
Therapy in Handbook of Offender Assessment and Treatment, ed. Clive Hollin. (Chichester: John Wiley,
2001), 259-268.
47
Della Porta, Leaving Underground Organizations 85.
48
45
Sam Mullins
102
In Egypt, the government has engaged most with organisational leaders. However, the peace
process, which includes ideological deradicalisation, appears to have been initiated by the Gamaa Islamiyah
leadership. This is distinct to entering into a pre-designed rehabilitative program.
103
Boucek, Saudi Arabias Soft Counter-Terrorism Strategy; Boucek, Beg and Horgan, Opening up
the Jihadi Debate; Speckhard, Prison and Community Based Disengagement and De-Radicalization Programs
for Extremists Involved in Militant Jihadi Terrorism Ideologies and Activities.
104
Arie Kruglanski and Michele Gelfand, The Radicalisation and Deradicalisation Index Paper
presented at the International Conference on Terrorist Rehabilitation, February 24-26, 2009, Singapore.
105
Speckhard, Prison and Community Based Disengagement and De-Radicalization Programs for
Extremists Involved in Militant Jihadi Terrorism Ideologies and Activities 359.
106
Note that high, medium, and low-risk participants are distinguished between in Singapore, and in
Iraq a distinction is made between hard-core and moderate detainees; however, it is unclear exactly how this
is determined (Gunaratna. Example Cases and Programs: Battlefield of the Mind: Terrorist Rehabilitation;
Speckhard, Prison and Community Based Disengagement and De-Radicalization Programs for Extremists
Involved in Militant Jihadi Terrorism Ideologies and Activities.
107
James Bonta, Offender Risk Assessment: Guidelines for Selection and Use Criminal Justice and
Behavior, 29 (2002): 355-379; Also see William Grove and Paul Meehl, Comparative Efficiency of Informal
(Subjective, Impressionistic) and Formal (Mechanical, Algorithmic) Prediction Procedures: The ClinicalStatistical Controversy Psychology, Public Policy and Law, 2 (1996): 293-323, cited in Bonta, Offender Risk
Assessment.
108
D. Elaine Pressman, Risk-Assessment Decisions for Violent Political Extremism (Ottawa: Canadian
Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies, 2009), accessed September 10, 2010,
http://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/res/cor/rep/2009-02-rdv-eng.aspx.
109
Figures were derived from the following sources: for Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, Abuza,
The Rehabilitation of Jemaah Islamiyah Detainees in South East Asia; for Saudi Arabia, Christopher Boucek,
Extremist Re-Education and Rehabilitation in Saudi Arabia in Leaving Terrorism Behind: Individual and
Collective Disengagement, eds. Tore Bjrgo and John Horgan, (Oxon and New York: Routledge, 2009), 212223; for Yemen, Boucek, Beg and Horgan, Opening up the Jihadi Debate; and for Iraq, Speckhard, Prison
and Community Based Disengagement and De-Radicalization Programs for Extremists Involved in Militant
Jihadi Terrorism Ideologies and Activities.
110
Note that number of program participants in Yemen is calculated by the assertion that 40% of the
total were rehabilitated (364 = 40% of 910). See Boucek, Beg and Horgan, Opening up the Jihadi Debate 190.
111
Abuza, The Rehabilitation of Jemaah Islamiyah Detainees in South East Asia 200-201.
112
Indonesian Chief Warns Terrorism Spreading Lateline, June 3, 2010, accessed September 4, 2010,
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2010/s2917836.htm.
113
Boucek, Extremist Re-Education and Rehabilitation in Saudi Arabia 222.
114
Boucek, Beg and Horgan, Opening up the Jihadi Debate 191.
115
Speckhard, Prison and Community Based Disengagement and De-Radicalization Programs for
Extremists Involved in Militant Jihadi Terrorism Ideologies and Activities 357.
116
Neumann, Prisons and Terrorism: Radicalisation and De-radicalisation in 15 Countries.
117
Boucek, Saudi Arabias Soft Counter-Terrorism Strategy, 11, 13.
118
Horgan and Kurt Braddock, Rehabilitating the Terrorists?: Challenges in Assessing the
Effectiveness of De-radicalization Programs.
119
Ibid.
120
For an overview of persisting issues and different kinds of rehabilitation program for offenders, see
Clive Hollin, ed, Handbook of Offender Assessment and Treatment (Chichester: John Wiley, 2001); Clive
Hollin and Emma Palmer, Offending Behaviour Programmes: History and Development in Offending
Behaviour Programmes: Development, Application and Controversies, eds. Clive Hollin and Emma Palmer
(Chichester: Wiley, 2006), 1-32
121
Robert Martinson, What Works? Questions and Answers about Prison Reform The Public
Interest, 35 (1974): 22-54, cited in Clive Hollin, To Treat or Not to Treat? An Historical Perspective in
Handbook of Offender Assessment and Treatment, ed. Clive Hollin.(Chichester: John Wiley and Sons, 2001) 316.
122
See Hollin, To Treat or Not to Treat?; James Bonta and Don Andrews, Risk-Need-Responsivity
Model for Offender Assessment and Rehabilitation, (Public Safety Canada, 2007), 9, accessed June 23, 2009,
http://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/res/cor/rep/_fl/Risk_Need_2007-06_e.pdf.
123
Hollin, To Treat or Not to Treat?
124
Ibid.
47
Sam Mullins
For an introduction to these statistics see Robert Coe, Its the Effect Size, Stupid: What Effect Size
is and Why it is Important (paper presented at the annual conference of the British Educational Research
Association, Exeter, England, September 12-14, 2002), accessed September 21, 2010,
http://www.leeds.ac.uk/educol/documents/00002182.htm; Paul Gendreau and Paula Smith, Influencing the
People Who Count: Some Perspectives on the Reporting of Meta-Analytic Results for Prediction and
Treatment Outcomes with Offenders Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34 (2007): 1536-1559.
126
Paula Smith, Paul Gendreau and Kristin Swartz, Validating the Principles of Effective
Intervention: A Systematic Review of the Contributions of Meta-Analysis in the Field of Corrections Victims
and Offenders, 4 (2009): 148-169.
127
Ibid.
128
David Cooke and Lorraine Philip, To Treat or Not to Treat? An Empirical Perspective in
Handbook of Offender Assessment and Treatment, ed. Clive Hollin. (Chichester: John Wiley, 2001), 17-34.
129
Mark Lipsey and Francis Cullen, The Effectiveness of Correctional Rehabilitation: A Review of
Systematic Reviews Annual Review of Law and Social Science, 3 (2007): 297-320.
130
Bonta and Andrews, Risk-Need-Responsivity Model for Offender Assessment and Rehabilitation,
10-12.
131
See, for example, Peter Raynor and Maurice Vanstone, Reasoning and Rehabilitation in Britain:
The Results of the Straight Thinking on Probation (STOP) Programme International Journal of Offender
Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 40 (1996): 272-284, cited in Clive Hollin, Treatment Programs for
Offenders: Meta-Analysis, What Works, and Beyond International Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 22
(1999): 362-372.
132
Carole Byron, ed. An Evaluation of Cognitive Behavioural Treatment for Prisoners (London: Home
Office, 2002), accessed September 17, 2010. http://rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs2/r161.pdf.
133
See James Bonta, Brad Bogue, Michael Crowley and Laurence Motiuk, "Implementing Offender
Classification Systems: Lessons Learned" in Offender Rehabilitation in Practice: Implementing and Evaluating
Effective Programs eds. Gary Bernfeld, David Farrington and Alan Leschied (Chichester, Wiley, 2001), 227246; Daryl Kroner and Jeremy Mills, The Accuracy of Five Risk Appraisal Instruments in Predicting
Institutional Misconduct and New Convictions Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28 (2001): 471-489.; Min Yang,
Stephen Wong and Jeremy Coid, The Efficacy of Violence Prediction: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Nine
Risk-Assessment Tools Psychological Bulletin, 136 (2010): 740-767.
134
See Smith, Gendreau and Swartz, Validating the Principles of Effective Intervention: A Systematic
Review of the Contributions of Meta-Analysis in the Field of Corrections.
135
Mark Lipsey, Can Rehabilitative Programs Reduce the Recidivism of Juvenile Offenders? An
Inquiry into the Effectiveness of Practical Programs Virginia Journal of Social Policy and the Law 6 (1999):
611-641, cited in Lipsey and Cullen, The Effectiveness of Correctional Rehabilitation: A Review of Systematic
Reviews 315.
136
Christopher Lowenkamp, A Program Level Analysis of the Relationship Between Correctional
Program Integrity and Treatment Effectiveness (PhD diss., University of Cincinnati, 2004) cited in Smith,
Gendreau and Swartz, Validating the Principles of Effective Intervention: A Systematic Review of the
Contributions of Meta-Analysis in the Field of Corrections 162.
137
Paul Gendreau, Claire Groggin and Paula Smith, Implementation Guidelines for Correctional
Programs in the "Real World in Offender Rehabilitation in Practice: Implementing and Evaluating Effective
Programs eds. Gary Bernfeld, David Farrington and Alan Leschied (Chichester, Wiley, 2001), 247-268, 260.
138
Ibid.
139
Lipsey and Francis Cullen, The Effectiveness of Correctional Rehabilitation: A Review of
Systematic Reviews.
140
Ibid, 309.
141
Don Andrews, Ivan Zinger, Robert Hoge, James Bonta, Paul Gendreau and Francis Cullen, Does
Correctional Treatment Work? A Clinically Relevant and Psychologically Informed Meta-Analysis
Criminology, 28 (1990): 369-404; Don Andrews and Craig Dowden, Risk Principle of Case-Classification in
Correctional Treatment: A Meta-Analytic Investigation International Journal of Offender Therapy and
Comparative Criminology, 50 (2006): 88-100; Bonta and Andrews, Risk-Need-Responsivity Model for Offender
Assessment and Rehabilitation; Cooke and Philip, To Treat or Not to Treat?; Paul Gendreau, Offender
Rehabilitation: What We Know and What Needs to Be Done Criminal Justice and Behavior, 23 (1996): 144161; Hollin, Treatment Programs for Offenders; Nana Landenberger and Mark Lipsey, The Positive Effects
of Cognitive-Behavioral Programs for Offenders: A Meta-Analysis of Factors Associated With Effective
Treatment Journal of Experimental Criminology, 1 (2005): 451-476.
142
For a more detailed description see Hollin and Palmer, Offending Behaviour Programmes: History
and Development.
125
E.g. Don Andrews, James Bonta and Stephen Wormith, The Recent Past and Near Future of Risk
and/or Need Assessment Crime and Delinquency, 52 (2006): 7-27; Andrews and Dowden, Risk Principle of
Case-Classification in Correctional Treatment; Bonta and Andrews, Risk-Need-Responsivity Model for
Offender Assessment and Rehabilitation.
144
Bonta and Andrews, Risk-Need-Responsivity Model for Offender Assessment and Rehabilitation.
145
E.g. Landenberger and Lipsey, The Positive Effects of Cognitive-Behavioral Programs for
Offenders: A Meta-Analysis of Factors Associated With Effective Treatment.
146
Smith, Gendreau and Swartz, Validating the Principles of Effective Intervention: A Systematic
Review of the Contributions of Meta-Analysis in the Field of Corrections 154.
147
Ibid, 160.
148
Andrews, Bonta and Wormith, The Recent Past and Near Future of Risk and/or Need Assessment;
Mary Ann Campbell, Sheila French and Paul Gendreau, The Prediction of Violence in Adult Offenders: A
Meta-Analytic Comparison of Instruments and Methods of Assessment Criminal Justice and Behavior, 36
(2009): 567-590.
149
Patricia Harris, What Community Supervision Officers Need to Know About Actuarial Risk
Assessment and Clinical Judgement Federal Probation, (2006), accessed September 20, 2010,
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa4144/is_200609/ai_n17192051/?tag=content;col1.
150
E.g. Byron, ed. An Evaluation of Cognitive Behavioural Treatment for Prisoners.
151
Campbell, French and Gendreau, The Prediction of Violence in Adult Offenders: A Meta-Analytic
Comparison of Instruments and Methods of Assessment; Yang, Stephen Wong and Jeremy Coid, The
Efficacy of Violence Prediction: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Nine Risk-Assessment Tools.
152
Bonta, Bogue, Crowley and Laurence Motiuk, "Implementing Offender Classification Systems:
Lessons Learned"; Harris, What Community Supervision Officers Need to Know About Actuarial Risk
Assessment and Clinical Judgement.
153
Andrews, Bonta and Wormith, The Recent Past and Near Future of Risk and/or Need Assessment;
Bonta and Andrews, Risk-Need-Responsivity Model for Offender Assessment and Rehabilitation.
154
Ibid; Ibid.
155
Ibid; Ibid.
156
Smith, Gendreau and Swartz, Validating the Principles of Effective Intervention: A Systematic
Review of the Contributions of Meta-Analysis in the Field of Corrections.
157
Ibid; Bonta and Andrews, Risk-Need-Responsivity Model for Offender Assessment and
Rehabilitation.
158
Cooke and Philip, To Treat or Not to Treat?
159
Hollin and Palmer, Offending Behaviour Programmes: History and Development.
160
Paul Gendreau, Claire Groggin and Paula Smith, "Implementation Guidelines for Correctional
Programs in the "Real World"" in Offender Rehabilitation in Practice: Implementing and Evaluating Effective
Programs, eds. Gary Bernfeld, David Farrington and Alan Leschied (Chichester, Wiley, 2001), 247-268.
161
For formal accreditation criteria as used in England and Wales see Hollin and Palmer, Offending
Behaviour Programmes: History and Development.
162
Paul Gendreau and Don Andrews, Correctional Program Assessment Inventory (CPAI-2000) (St.
John, Canada: University of New Brunswick, 2001) cited in Smith, Gendreau and Swartz, Validating the
Principles of Effective Intervention: A Systematic Review of the Contributions of Meta-Analysis in the Field of
Corrections 162-163.
163
Smith, Gendreau and Swartz, Validating the Principles of Effective Intervention: A Systematic
Review of the Contributions of Meta-Analysis in the Field of Corrections 162-163.
164
Horgan, Walking Away from Terrorism, 139-162; LaFree and Miller, Desistance from Terrorism:
What Can We Learn from Criminology?
165
For example, see Ronald Blackburn, The Psychology of Criminal Conduct: Theory, Research and
Practice (Chichester: John Wiley, 1993), 5-52.
166
Edwin Bakker, Jihadi Terrorists in Europe: Their Characteristics and the Circumstances in Which
They Joined the Jihad: An Exploratory Study (The Hague: Clingendael Institute, 2006), 42, 50; John Horgan,
The Psychology of Terrorism (New York: Routledge, 2005); Sageman, Understanding Terror Networks, 80-91.
167
Blackburn, The Psychology of Criminal Conduct, 267-268.
168
E.g. Linda Teplin, The Prevalence of Severe Mental Disorder Among Male Urban Jail Detainees:
Comparison with the Epidemiologic Catchment Area Program, American Journal of Public Health 80 (1990):
663669.
169
Blackburn, The Psychology of Criminal Conduct, 268.
170
A possible exception to this rule would be programs designed specifically for severely mentally
disordered offenders, as in maximum security hospitals.
143
49
Sam Mullins
171
51