Monthly Housing Market Outlook 2017-01

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California Housing Market

Update

Monthly Sales and Price Statistics


January 2016
Sales of Existing Detached Homes
California, Jan. 2017 Sales: 420,000 Units, +4.4% YTD, +4.4% YTY
700,000

600,000
Jan-16: Jan-17:
402,220 420,100
500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
California Sales (Jan 2000 Present)
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Bay Area Sales (Existing SFH)
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
YoY % chg.
30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Southern California (Existing SFH)
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
YoY % chg.
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Central Valley Sales (Existing SFH)
Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
YoY % chg.
30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Sales Share by Price Range
Jan-17 Jan-16
30%

21%
20%
20% 18% 19%
17%
16%
13% 14% 14%

10% 9% 9%
10% 8% 7%

3% 2%

0%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
California, January 2017: $489,580, -3.8% MTM, +4.8% YTY
P: May-07
$700,000
$594,530
Jan-16: Jan-17:
$600,000 $467,160 $489,580

$500,000
T: Feb-09
$245,230
$400,000 -59% from
peak
$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Home Price Appreciations Have
Moderated Since Mid 2013
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%

30%

20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
CA Median Price (Existing SFH)
Month-to-Month % Chg
15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Price Per Square Foot
January 2017: $240, Down 0.8% MTM, Up 5.3% YTY
$400

$350
Jan-17:
$300 Jan-16: $240
$228
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Sales Price -to-List Price Ratio
January 2017: 98.1%, Even 0% MTM, Up 0.3% YTY
Jan-16: Jan-17:
97.8% 98.1%
100%

98%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

96%

94%

92%

90%

88%

86%

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
UII remained at low levels decreasing
from last year
Jan. 2015: 2.8 Months; Jan. 2016: 2.6 Months
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Inventory Dropped Significantly in the Bay
Area since 2009
9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0 4.0

3.0 3.5

2.0 2.5

1.0

0.0

Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Supply Dropped in Each Region
January 2017

Sales Active Listings


10%

4% 4%
Year-to-Year % Chg

0%
-1%
-3%

-10%

-12%
-13%

-20%
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley

SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS