GDP Growth Sustained: Total Expenditure Has Increased by Rs. 192669 Crore in 2016-17 (BE) From 2015-16 (RE)

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley focused on a number of new initiatives which
essentially are a boon for digital India, however, a push towards local manufacturing
has seemingly taken a back seat.
The Indian economy ended the last fiscal on a high with growth for the full year
touching 7.6% amidst a struggling global economy and a worsening investment
climate. In the current fiscal, the domestic economy has continued to show
resilience even in the wake of deteriorating global conditions and increased
protectionist measures.
. A major overhaul of the taxation regime with introduction of the Goods and
Services Tax (GST) and the General Anti-Avoidance Rule (GAAR) could also mean
some disruption over the near term
GDP growth sustained

Indian growth over the past one year can be looked at as a story of two halves.
During the first half it was clearly the fastest growing large economy in the world
with 7.2% in H1FY17. The second half was expected to see a pickup in growth levels
aided by increased consumption levels. However, the governments decision to
demonetize high value notes has potentially caused some slowdown in the near
term
Demonetization
Impact on growth will essentially be felt on the back of lower growth as consumer
expenditure and behaviour are both likely to undergo some change.
Two broad effects can be singled out. Postponement of expenditure on account of
uncertainty and lack of cash; and Investment decisions to get delayed as
consumption drops in the near term
As per IMF estimates, the decline in growth due to demonetisation could be as much
as 1%. As the liquidity crunch has more severely affected the informal sector.
Total Expenditure has increased by Rs. 192669 crore in 2016-17(BE) from 2015-16(RE).
Unlike previous years, 2015-16(RE) figures are an increase from 2015-16(BE) figures. However,
as share of GDP (i.e. after accounting for inflation), total expenditure shows a decline over the
12th Five-Year Plan period.
TAX
The Union Government is pessimistic on the tax revenue generation front in 2016-
17. It has proposed an estimate of 11.7 percent growth of gross tax revenue in
2016-17 B.E which is less compared to its previous years revised estimate growth
of 15.8 percent. Growth in tax revenue has witnessed a slower movement with
respect to the growth GDP. There is no significant improvement in Tax-GDP ratio in
the last few years.
HEALTH
There has been some increase in the total allocations under the Ministry of Health &
Family Welfare. However, if we look at the allocations as percent of GDP, they have
remained in the range of 0.25 percent. In order to address the development deficits
in the health sector in India, there is a need to increase these allocations to much
higher levels.
Inflation for the first nine months of FY17 has averaged at 4.8% at the retail level.
Consumer price inflation (CPI) increased continuously in Q1 FY17 due to rising food
prices and unfavorable base effects.
Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP was budgeted at 3.5% for
201617 in the previous years budget. This is revised to 3.2% for 201718. The
gradual decline in fiscal deficit assures prudent fiscal consolidation without
sacrificing public expenditure, while private sector investment is expected to be
sluggish. The focus now will be on revenue and capital expenditure as the new
budget does away with the plan and non-plan expenditure
Trade Deficit: Indias trade deficit narrowed by 25% in the cumulative period of April
to December 2016 when it stood at $76.5 billion, as against $100.1 billion in the
corresponding period of the previous year
Currency: The rupee saw a depreciation of 3.3%, as it stood at an average of 67.21
per US dollar during April 2016 to January 2017 against an average of 65.03 per
US dollar during the same period in the previous year
fiscal balancing
India aims to achieve a fiscal deficit target of 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP)
for FY17, after achieving the 3.9% of GDP target in FY16. However, the fiscal deficit
in Q1 of FY17 reached 61.1% of the full financial years target of INR 5.34 trillion.
Conclusion
Given the recent turbulence in the domestic economic environment and fast
changing global economy, the macroeconomic fundamentals of the economy
remain robust and augur well for the future. Latest data points suggest that demand
is recovering in the economy and the Reserve Bank of India has also started to
increase withdrawal limits. Growth is expected to move up over the course of the
next year and is likely to cross the 7% mark again
The rate of income tax is proposed to be reduced to 5% (from 10%) for income
between INR 2.5 to INR 5 lakhs. A surcharge of 10% on tax payable is proposed for
individuals having an income of INR 50 lakhs to INR 1 crore and 15% above 1 crore.
Other tax slab and rates remain unchanged.
Those falling in the income group of 50 lakh to 1 crore will end up shelling out more
due to levy of surcharge of 10%. Rest of the taxpayers will have some saving due to
reduction of tax slab rate from 10% to 5%. Limiting house property loss for
adjustment against other income upto 2 lakh in a year would affect adversely to
those who have rented out their house and their loss after adjusting mortgage
interest is more than 2 lakh
Budget 2017 matches upto its promise of being a budget with non inflationary set of
tax proposals, seeks to put more cash into the pockets of individual tax payers
(income below 5 lacs) with token tax of five percent, renews the pledge of making
to reality universal affordable housing, doubling farmers income a reality,a
composite allocation of over six lakh crore on the transportation sector (railways,
waterways, ports and highways and infrastructure) to create multiplier effect on
growth. A tax rate of 25% to MSME sector is good implementation option, to
reduce corporate tax rates with in a limited resource available given overall
resources
Corporate Tax
Corporate tax rates remain unchanged at 40%.Corporate tax rate reduced to 25%
for domestic companies having total turnover/ gross receipts in the previous year
(2015-16) not exceeding INR 500 million. In other cases, the tax rates remain
unchanged at 30%
From indirect tax perspective, no major changes were made, which further
reconfirms the Government's commitment to introduce GST at the earliest. The fact
that services tax rate has not gone up (as widely expected) will make the common
man happy. There has also been an attempt to incentivise domestic manufacturing
by further rationalising the duty structure, which the industry was looking forward
to. Greater thrust on tax administration is also a welcome step, an area which
does not often get the attention it deserves.
Investors in India focussed FPIs will be happy with this clarification since many of
them were staring at a potential tax liability. The rationale for excluding investors in
Category III FPIs is however unclear
The defence budget for 2017-18 has seen a marginal increase of 5.4% over the last
year budget and accounts for 12.22% of the total budget allocation. While the
Government has made an allocation for the Make in India programmes and R&D,
the capital expenditure has seen a decline from 34.7% to 33.0% of the defence
budget. Revenue expenditure has been consistently increasingly, largely due to an
increase in pay and allowances in view of the implementation of 7th pay
commission recommendations.
"Budget has several measures to boost foreign investment flow into India.
Abolishment of FIPB and proposed liberalisation of FDI policy is an indication that
foreign funds would be welcome even in sensitive sectors which were hitherto under
approval route. 5% tax on interest on foreign borrowings and masala bonds is
extended by 3 years.

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Finance Minister Arun Jaitley focused on a number of new initiatives which

GDP growth sustained

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