UNION

BUDGET
2017 - 2018

UNION BUDGET
2017 - 2018
INDEX

Key Highlights

Tax Rates

Market movements:
Equity & Debt

Economic update:

Budget summary

Revenue snapshot

Expenditure snapshot

Sector updates

Equity Market: Outlook and Strategy

Debt Market: Outlook and Strategy

1
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
 KEY
HIGHLIGHTS

Though the Union Budget is essentially a Statement of Account of public finances, it has
historically become a significant opportunity to indicate the direction and the pace of
Indias economic policy. The 2017-18 Union Budget was presented amidst a somewhat
wobbly backdrop of the world economy facing considerable uncertainty, increasing signs
of a retreat from globalization of goods the world over, and high expectations from
people back home relating to good governance. Amidst all these developments, India
has stood out as a bright spot in the world economic landscape. Indias macro-economic
stability continues to be the foundation of economic success.

With this in the background, we present the key highlights of Union Budget 2017-18.
Economy
Net tax revenues are expected to grow by 12% in FY18, maintaining a double digit
growth rate for third year in a row.

Total expenditure is slated to grow more modestly at 6.6% in FY18 from 12.5% last year.

Revenue expenditure is expected grow at 5.9% in FY18 (12.8% last year) while capital
expenditure will grow at 10.7% (basis FY17 RE) in FY18 (10.6% last year).

Adherence to fiscal consolidation path reiterated with fiscal deficit target of 3.2% in FY18

Use of ETF as a vehicle for further disinvestment in listed CPSEs to continue as the
government plans to launch a new ETF with diversified CPSE stocks in FY18.

Net market borrowing limited to Rs. 3.48 lakh crore, much lower than Rs. 4.25 lakh crore
of the previous year.
2
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
TAX RATES

Direct Taxes
Personal income tax rate at lowest slab (Rs. 2.5 lacs to Rs. 5 lacs) is reduced to 5%
from 10%.
While the taxation liability of people with income up to Rs. 5 lakhs is being reduced to
half, all the other categories of tax payers in the subsequent slabs will also get a
uniform benefit of Rs. 12,500/- per person. The total amount of tax foregone on
account of this measure is Rs. 15,500 crores.
A surcharge of 10% has also been introduced for individuals whose annual taxable
income falls between Rs. 50 lakhs and Rs. 1 crore.
The concessional with-holding rate of 5% (charged on interest earned by foreign
entities) on ECBs / Govt bonds / Masala bonds got extended up to June 2020 (from
June 2017)
Corporate tax rate for MSMEs with annual turnover up to Rs50 crore is reduced to
25% from 30%. Government expects 96% of all companies filing taxes to benefit.
LTCG holding period for immovable property reduced to 2 years from 3 years.
Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) Category I & II receives exemption from indirect
transfer provision. Budget clarified that indirect transfer provision shall not apply in
case of redemption of shares or interests outside India as a result of or arising out of
redemption or sale of investment in India which is chargeable to tax in India.

Positive: Reduction in corporate tax for MSMEs and tax rate cut for lowest slab (of
Rs. 2.5 lac to Rs. 5 lac) are positive developments for investors/individuals/savers.
The benefits will accrue on account of tax saved as well as help create a corpus for
the future.
3
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
KEY
HIGHLIGHTS

Miscellaneous
Rs. 10,000 crore recapitalisation for PSU banks during FY18 in line with
Indradhanush roadmap.
Agriculture credit for FY18 targeted at Rs 10 lakh crore, with 60 days interest waiver.
The government intends to double the NABARD fund (for long term irrigation) corpus
from Rs. 20,000 crore to Rs. 40,000 crore.
The government plans to spend Rs 3 lakh crore on rural India. With MGNREGA, it
aims to double farmers' income.
The government aims to achieve 100% rural electrification by March 2018.
Total allocation for infrastructure development in FY18 pegged at Rs 3.96 lakh crore.
Affordable housing receives infrastructure status.
Railway lines of 3,500 km to be commissioned in 2017-18
Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) will get abolished in FY18.
Further liberalisation of FDI policy is under consideration.
The shares of Railway PSEs like IRCTC, IRFC and IRCON will get listed on stock
exchanges.
A committee will be constituted to create legal framework to integrate spot market
and derivatives market in the agricultural sector for commodities trading.
Cash Donations which can be received by a charitable trust will now be restricted to
Rs 2,000 from earlier limit of Rs 10,000.

4
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
MARKET
MOVEMENT

Equity Market
Equity markets reacted positively on the Budget day. An immediate relief rally was
witnessed as soon as the finance minister Mr. Arun Jaitley ended his speech without
commenting anything on the LTCG (long term capital gains) for equity investments.
In the run up to the budget, investors were worried that the government might tinker
with the 1 year period by raising it to 3 years.
The government managed to avoid populist measures as widely anticipated by the
market and opted to move ahead on the steady path of fiscal prudence.
At market closing, S&P BSE Sensex settled at 28,142 levels with a gain of 1.76%.
Among the BSE sector indices, Realty index was up by 4.83% while Auto index
gained almost 3.5%. FMCG, Bank, Metal and Capital Goods were up by 2.79%,
2.76%, 2.28% and 2.18%, respectively. IT sector index lost 1.07%, while Telecom
and Health Care lost 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively.
Among Sensex stocks, Maruti Suzuki (4.7%), M&M (4.6%), ITC (4.5%) & ICICI Bank
(4.4%) were the top gainers while TCS (-2.7%), Infosys (-1.4%) and NTPC (-1.3%)
were among the major losers.
Debt Market
The Union Budget took a middle path by balancing the need for higher public
infrastructure spending with the medium-term need for continued fiscal prudence.
The fiscal deficit has been budgeted at 3.2% of the GDP in FY18 with a target of
achieving 3% in FY2019. The net market borrowing has been pegged at Rs. 3.48
lakh crore in this financial year, lower than Rs. 4.25 lakh crore in the last year
Adherence to the fiscal deficit number by the centre arms the central bank with
ammunition to cut rates further.
5
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
 ECONOMIC
UPDATE

FY18 fiscal deficit target set at 3.2% of GDP Assumptions on higher income tax
compliance critical to meeting targets; FY17 RE revenue a little on the higher side
FY18 centre fiscal deficit target at Rs. 5.47 tn; nominal GDP growth assumed at 11.75%

FY18 total receipts estimated to rise 8.1% to Rs. 16 tn

FY18 gross tax receipts seen rising 12.2% YoY, leading net tax up by 12.7%
FY17RE revenues on the higher side, biasing up FY18 numbers by ~Rs. 0.4 tn
Corporate tax forecast expected to rise 9% in FY17RE as opposed to 4.8%
growth seen in the Apr 16-Dec 16 period
Excise duty growth also appears highly elevated given current run rate
FY18 income tax growth at 25% appears to be aggressive, especially given 23% growth
rate in FY17RE. It will also require large scale efforts by tax authorities to identify and
correct tax avoidance
FY18 non-tax revenues seen lower at 13.7%, with 43.7% fall in telecom revenues (no spectrum
auction) and lower dividends (special dividends taken in FY17)

Non-debt capital receipts up 49.3%; pickup hinges on disinvestments in insurance and SUUTI

FY18 expenditure estimated to rise 6.6% to Rs. 21.5 tn

Revenue expenditures seen rising slowly at 5.9%, with salaries, defence & pensions reverting
after the 7th CPC led jump in FY17.
Robust increases budgeted in water, health and rural development spending
Capex growth budgeted at 10.7% with focus on railways, roads, urban development and energy
6
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
 ECONOMIC
UPDATE

FY18 fiscal math: Assumptions of FY17RE corporation tax and excise duty, FY18 income
tax appears optimistic

Source : Axis Bank Business & Economic Research

7
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
ECONOMIC
UPDATE

FY17RE tax collections assumed better than current run rate till Dec16, pushes up
absolute number next fiscal

Income tax collections in

FY18 assumed higher on
phase shift in compliance
Corporate tax collections in
FY17 exceed current run rate
till Dec16 and keep next
fiscal numbers buoyed
Excise collection this fiscal
seem difficult to achieve and
keep next fiscal number
elevated as tax rates likely to
remain at current level.
Non-tax revenues
projections seem
reasonable: no inflows from
spectrum auctions and no
spike in transfers from RBI
Disinvestment target set at
Rs.72K cr.: listing of IRCTC,
IRFC and IRCON and PSU
insurance companies

Source : Axis Bank Business & Economic Research

8
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
ECONOMIC
UPDATE

Higher income tax collections (on improved compliance) likely to drive increase in FY18
tax collections

Note: FY16: Actuals, FY17: Revised Estimates and FY18: Budget Estimates

Source : Axis Bank Business & Economic Research

9
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
 ECONOMIC
UPDATE

Establishment expenditure growth falls post implementation of 7CPC in FY17.

Central sector schemes growth slows on restructuring of schemes

Source : Axis Bank Business & Economic Research

10
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
 ECONOMIC
UPDATE

Food subsidy increase on coverage of NFSA across all states; Reversion in salary and
pension growth rates (incl defence) after 7CPC led increase provides space for capex
in FY18

Source : Axis Bank Business & Economic Research

11
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
 ECONOMIC
UPDATE

FY18 fiscal deficit primarily financed by net borrowings (Rs. 3.5 tn) and small savings
(Rs 1 tn)

Source : Axis Bank Business & Economic Research

12
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
 ECONOMIC
UPDATE

Gross borrowings of Centre and States rise with steep increases in state deficits and
higher redemptions

Source : Axis Bank Business & Economic Research

13
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
 ECONOMIC
UPDATE

Deficit Trends
(as a % of GDP)

Debt Trends
(as a % of GDP)

Government by disciplining its fiscal deficit is looking to:

Improve Indias international credit rating,
Creates headroom for RBI to reduce key policy rates
Makes investment/ borrowings for private sector cheap Source : Axis Bank Investment Research; http://indiabudget.nic.in
14
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
SECTOR
UPDATES

Sector Key budget measures Impact

Maintained target of doubling farm income by 2022
FY18 Budgetary allocation for rural and agri segment
rose 5% YoY. Govt exceeded its FY17 budgetary targets
by ~7%
Highest-ever MGNREGA allocation at Rs 480 bn (Rs
Agriculture 475 bn in FY17) higher rural income and lower crop Positive:for all agri related companies
cultivation costs

Contract farming - higher realization and lower post-harvest

losses for farmers with government encouraging tie-ups
between agro processing units and farmers

Pro rural measures to improve farm productivity and

spur rural income growth
Autos Positive: For auto companies
Road (urban + rural) capex increased to Rs 1.4 tn (vs.
Rs 1.3 tn YoY)

Affordable housing given infrastructure status

Positive: for corporate lenders, MFIs,
Banking & Allowed listing and trading of security receipts issued HFCs
Financial by ARCs Expectations of additional capital for PSU
Services Additional benefits for provisions made for bad assets banks not met
MUDRA lending target doubled to ~Rs 2.44 trn (key
beneficiary MFIs)

Source: Axis Capital

15
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
 SECTOR
UPDATES

Sector Key budget measures Impact

Budgetary allocation towards capex up by 13% : Bulk of
the increase in railways (up 8%), roads (up 17%), and T&D
(up 32%)

Push on metro rail projects : Allocation for metro up 15%

in FY18BE after upward revision in FY17RE (vs. BE) by 57% Positive: For capital goods and EPC
Capital companies
goods Discontinuation of GBI incentive for wind power Negative : For wind energy companies
developers is a disappointment. GBI was ~1/6th of capital
cost, and its discontinuation negatively impacts developers
IRR resulting in margin pressure on equipment supplier

Defense capex the only disappointment: FY17 RE was

~7% below budget allocation, and FY18BE is just 8% higher

Demand support from increase in road and rural housing

Cement spending

Excise duty on cigarettes hiked by ~6% . Positive for

cigarette cos if GST is revenue neutral.
Positive : for most consumer companies in
general and particularly for cigarette
FMCG Increased investment on the rural side in the form of various manufacturing companies
schemes and increased MNREGA investment to aid FMCG
companies
Impetus to rural and affordable housing

Source: Axis Capital

16
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
 SECTOR
UPDATES

Sector Key budget measures Impact

Proposal to amend legislation to prescribe generic names

Pharmaceuticals
MAT credit allowed to be carried forward up to 15 years vs.
10 years at present

No change in clean energy cess (Rs 400/ton)

Positive: For IPPs selling merchant power
Power 80IA Income tax exemption not extended
25% increase in power T&D expenditure

Multiple impetus for affordable housing

Positive: Affordable housing sops
Reduced holding period for LT capital gains on
beneficial for developers with strong
Realty transfer of property execution track record
Impetus to rural housing (to complete 10 mn homes by 2019)

Budget receipts of Rs 990 bn for 2016-17 from

Communications revised downwards to Rs 787 bn owing to
lower-than-expected response to Oct 16 spectrum auction
Telecom

Budgeted receipts of Rs 443 bn for 2017-18, as spectrum

auction receipts not expected in the year

Source: Axis Capital

17
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
 SECTOR
UPDATES

Sector Key budget measures Impact

Custom duty on LNG cut to 2.5% (vs. 5% currently).
Priority sectors (fertilizer and power) are already exempted Positive : for all gas downstream
from custom duty companies as it will reduce gas cost and
boost volumes
Fuel subsidy budgeted at Rs 250 bn for FY18. This looks
Oil & Gas No subsidy impact on oil PSUs, as
lower as at current oil prices, FY18 gross under-recoveries
are likely to be at Rs 400 bn current subsidy sharing mechanism caps
government subsidy burden at Rs. 455 bn
Government mulling consolidation in oil PSU space to
create one large integrated oil company

Source: Axis Capital

18
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
EQUITY
MARKET
OUTLOOK
AND STRATERGY

The Union Budget 2017-18 delivered a pleasant surprise by sticking to the fiscal
deficit target of 3.2% of GDP as this move is likely to have a positive impact on the
macro economy by preserving stability.
The Union Budget puts forward Governments focus of continuing on the path
towards fiscal consolidation which also makes it easier for the central bank to
continue with its accommodative stance.
The Budget also underlines the Governments determination to provide an impetus
to the economy especially through the infrastructure, rural and financial sectors.
The Indian economy is poised to grow at a healthy rate in contrast to the global
economy which is expected grow at a slower rate of 3.1% in CY 2016 to 3.4% in CY
2017 (as per the IMF estimates).
Indias macroeconomic fundamentals remain intact with improvement in growth,
moderate inflation, improving CAD and robust forex reserves.
Amidst a global slowdown in economic growth, India continues to be a leading
investment destination.
Equity market valuations are also reasonable when compared to their long term
Price to Earnings (P/E) averages.
With a sharp fall in interest rates, improving growth outlook and signs of improving
corporate profitability, the outlook for equity market is positive.
We recommend investors to accumulate equities from a 3 to 5 years
investment horizon.

19
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
DEBT
MARKET
OUTLOOK
AND STRATEGY

The government has retained its fiscal deficit target for BE 2017-18 and BE 2018-19
at 3.2% and 3%, respectively.
The Centre is likely to borrow Rs. 5.8 lakh crores in FY18 (same levels as seen in
FY17). However, the net borrowings in FY18 will be Rs. 3.48 lakh crores (Rs. 4.25
lakh crores in FY16), after considering repayments of past loans and interests.
Gross supply of Central and State government securities is likely to be around Rs.
10.50 lakh crore in FY18, compared to ~ Rs. 9.3 lakh crore in the current fiscal.
The RBI in its December monetary policy stated that they continue to maintain an
accommodative stance, while keeping an eye on inflation data. With the Government
committed to walk a tightrope and stick to its fiscal deficit target of 3.2%, the onus
now shifts to RBI on the monetary policy front.
Although the net market borrowing has dropped to ~Rs 3,48,000 crores from ~Rs
4,25,000 crores last year, markets shall now focus on global yields and oil prices.
Even though there is downward bias to interest rates, room for further fall is limited
given the sharp fall from 8.8% to 6.5% in last 3 years and hence investors may
consider incrementally investing in short/medium term funds and dynamic bond
funds.
Investors who have an investment horizon of at least 18 to 24 months and who
can digest (possible) interim volatility can look at investing in dynamic bond
funds.
Short term income funds can be recommended for investors with an
investment horizon of minimum 12 -18 months to benefit from current accruals
and ensuing capital appreciation if yields head lower during this period.

20
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018
DISCLAIMER

DISCLAIMER

The report and information contained herein (hereinafter referred as Report) is of confidential and meant only for the selected recipient.
This Report should not be altered, transmitted to, copied, reproduced or distributed, in any manner and form, to any other person or
media or reproduced in any form, without prior consent of Axis Bank. The material in this report is based on information obtained from
publicly available recourses and/or sources believed to be reliable, true and accurate by Axis Bank, as on dare of the Report. Axis Bank
does not guarantee that the information is true, reliable and accurate, not misleading nor does it represent (expressly and impliedly) as
to its genuineness or suitability for intended the purpose of use. The opinion expressed (including estimates and forecasts) in Report is
subject to change, alteration, updation at Axis Banks sole discretion but without any communication and without prior notice of
intimation.

This Report is not an offer or solicitation for dealing in any financial instrument(s) or is an official confirmation of any transaction. This
Report is provided for assistance only and should not be construed as the sole document to be relied upon for taking any kind of
investment decision. Each recipient of this Report should make his/her own research, analysis and investigation as he/she deems fit and
reliable to come at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities mentioned in this Report (including the merits, demerits
and risks involved), and should further take opinion of own consultants, advisors to determine the advantages and risks of such
investment. The investment discussed or views expressed herein may not suit the requirements for all investors.

Axis Bank and its group companies, affiliates, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short
positions in, and deal (buy and/or sell the securities) thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any
other transaction involving such securities and earn commission/brokerage or other compensation or act as advisor or
lender/borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and
related information and opinions.

The applicable statutory laws, rules and regulations may not allow the distribution of this Report in certain jurisdictions, and persons who
are in possession of this document, should inform themselves about and follow, any such restrictions. This Report is not meant, directed
or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use
would not be in confirmation to the applicable law, regulation or which would require Axis Bank and affiliates/associates/subsidiaries
companies to obtain any registration or license . Neither Axis Bank nor any of its affiliates, associates, subsidiaries companies, its
directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be held responsible, liable for any kind of consequential damages whether direct,
indirect, special or consequential including but not limited to lost revenue, lost profits, notional losses that may arise from or in
connection with the use of the information or for ant misstatement or error(s) in it.

Prospective investors and others are cautioned and should be alert that any forward-looking statements are not predictions
and may be subject to change without providing any notice.

Past performance should not be considered as a reference to future performance. The disclosures of interest statements if any included
in this Report are provided only to enhance the transparency and should not be construed as confirmation of the views expressed in the
report.

Disclaimer for DIFC Branch:

Axis Bank, DIFC branch is duly licensed and regulated in the Dubai International Financial Centre by the Dubai Financial Services
Authority (DFSA). This Report is intended for use only by Professional Clients (as defined by Rule 2.3.2 set out in the Conduct of
Business Module of the DFSA Rulebook) who satisfy the regulatory criteria set out in the DFSAs rules, and should not be relied upon,
acted upon or distributed to any other person(s) other than the intended recipient.

21
UNION BUDGET, 2017 - 2018