Explaining Russias Intervention in Syria in September 2015

SIMON ALLCOCK, FEB 28 2016, 2110 VIEWS

THIS CONTENT WAS WRITTEN BY A STUDENT AND ASSESSED AS PART OF A UNIVERSITY DEGREE. E-IR
PUBLISHES STUDENT ESSAYS & DISSERTATIONS TO ALLOW OUR READERS TO BROADEN THEIR
UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT IS POSSIBLE WHEN ANSWERING SIMILAR QUESTIONS IN THEIR OWN
STUDIES.

On 30 September 2015, Russia began a military campaign in Syria which has continued to escalate up to
the time of writing in January 2016.[1] While surprising to many observers, the intervention reflected a
deeper bilateral relationship. Since the outbreak of anti-government protests in March 2011, Russia has
supported President Bashar Al-Assads Syrian regime both militarily and diplomatically.[2] Over the
summer of 2015, Assad conceded his regime was facing severe difficulties, and it appeared close to
collapse.[3] After a short military build-up in September, Russia began airstrikes on the 30th.[4] Despite
intimating a willingness to interact with moderate opposition groups, President Putin has unambiguously
declared the interventions purpose is to prevent Assads deposal.[5] Following terrorist attacks targeted
at both the West and Russia, there were tentative signs of greater cooperation between the two.[6] One
continued stumbling block is Russias unwavering support for Assad; Russias Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov reaffirmed on 20 November that no peaceful solution can be found without his participation.[7]
Signifying Russias first Middle East military campaign post-1989, various analysts have highlighted its
potentially extensive impact. Some claim it signifies the decline of the United States regional pre-
eminence and marks a new Middle East great game.[8] Given its conceivable regional and international
political fallout, it is important to understand in greater depth the reasons behind Russias intervention.

Rather than providing an empirical account of all of the factors that led to Russias intervention, this
essay is instead focused more on theory testing. It tests the extent to which two distinct international
relations theories can explain Russias intervention in Syria. Such an undertaking might mean some
factors that led to Russias intervention are overlooked. This is an inherent result of engaging with IR
theory because theories act as lenses which naturally consider some data and factors less important
than others.[9] The first theory is neorealism, whose founding father is Waltz.[10] The second is
Tsygankovs constructivist theory of Russian foreign policy.[11] This essay finds that while neorealism
usefully draws attention to Russias various strategic and material motivations, its explanatory capability
is low. The constructivist explanatory capability is far greater, but the case study highlights two
theoretical deficiencies. Firstly, it partially depends on an in-depth understanding of the perceptions of
the Russian foreign policy establishment, henceforth referred to as the other minds problem.[12]
Secondly, the theorys variables which explain change in Russian foreign policy are loosely defined. This
means it is challenging to decide which Russian foreign policy actions are explained by the theory,
reducing its testability.[13] Nonetheless, the substantial evidence that supports the constructivist theory
suggests it has a significant explanatory capacity but that its components should be defined more
specifically. The remainder of the essay is structured as follows: firstly, each theorys broad arguments
are outlined. Secondly, their explanatory power is tested by the case of Russias intervention in Syria. The
concluding section considers the findings implications.
Theories

This essay compares constructivism and neorealisms capacity to explain Russias intervention in Syria.
These theories were partly chosen because the decline of neorealism and rise of constructivism in
prominence in IR were to some extent caused by the formers failure to explain the Soviet Unions
foreign policy at the end of the Cold War.[14] The case study reflects on the theories capability to
explain contemporary Russias foreign policy.

Neorealism

Neorealism assumes nation-states are the most important actors in the international system. Some of
this parsimonious theorys key proposals are that states are rational, unitary, and that their action is
shaped by the structure of the international system, not by domestic or ideational factors. Waltz for
instance claimed the US invasion of Vietnam could be understood only in terms of the worlds
structure.[15] Irrespective of regime type, structural pressures force all states to seek the same selfish
ends. In the more defensive strand of neorealism I test, states rationally seek to preserve their position
(relative to other states) in the international structure. For neorealists, this structure is comprehended
materially; states are as such ranked by their level of material (military/economic) capabilities.[16]
Neorealism has a materialist and objectivist ontology, arguing the world is made up of a concrete reality
existing outside our perception or interpretation.[17] States act to rationally preserve their relative
position (based on material capabilities) in the international system. Therefore, if neorealism
satisfactorily explains Russias intervention, there should be evidence that this intervention was an
attempt to preserve its relative structural position in the (material) international order.

Constructivism and Honour Theory

Although now established within the discipline, early constructivists including Onuf and Wendt aimed to
challenge mainstream IR theories like neorealism.[18] Constructivism differs ontologically from
neorealism; it claims material forces have no intrinsic meaning but that actors understand them
intersubjectively. States national interests are socially constructed (not structurally determined), shaped
by their history and social interactions with other states.[19] While neorealists consider ideational
factors insignificant and epiphenomenal, constructivists argue states identities and interests are
dependent variables that influence state action.[20] Instead of acting rationally, states act according to
what they believe to be suitable to their own identity and role, in line with what is termed the logic of
appropriateness.[21]
Unlike neorealism, constructivism is not a specific theory of state action but is instead a broad approach
to IR.[22] Because constructivists disagree in some respects about why states act as they do, one must
identify a specific constructivist theory in order to test it.[23] The chosen theory is Tsygankovs
constructivist honour theory.[24] Tsygankovs central thesis is that Russian foreign policy is driven by
both an external and internal sense of honour, defined as what Russia believes is a good and virtuous
course of action in international society.[25] This sense of honour is socially constructed through
Russias interaction with other states and its historical experiences. Tsygankovs illustrative case studies
are limited to Europe, so focusing on Syria tests the theory beyond this geographic scope.

Externally, Russias sense of honour is a desire to be viewed as an important part of the Western world.
Internally, its honour is based on spiritual freedom (a Christian identity), a belief Russia should aid
cultural allies, a strong state, and a desire to be perceived as a great power. If there is contradiction
between these external and internal aspects of its honour, Russia will be less likely to cooperate with the
West; specifically, Tysgankov argues Russia will act assertively toward the West (exemplified by its
intervention in Syria) if the West fails to recognise Russias internal honour commitments, and if Russia
has confidence in its own capabilities. In summary, Tsygankovs theory would explain Russias
intervention in Syria if: Russian motivations appear to be driven by its external and internal sense of
honour; the West does not recognise these honour commitments; and Russia has confidence in its own
capabilities.[26]

Neorealist Explanations

If neorealism is an adequate explanation of Russias intervention in Syria, there should be evidence

Russia intervened in order to preserve its (material) structural position in the international system. I
identify two mechanisms through which neorealism might apply (although I recognise this does not
necessarily encompass all possible neorealist explanations): firstly, that Russia believed its material
interests in preserving Assads survival influenced its structural position, and hence his rule required
protecting; secondly Russia viewed the threat of Islamist terrorism as a threat to its structural position,
requiring intervention to protect against. Although neorealist theory usefully highlights the material and
security/strategic interests extant in Syria, Russia does not appear to have viewed these interests as
important to its structural position, meaning neorealism is ultimately a weak explanation of Russian
intervention.

Neorealism argues states sometimes attempt to preserve their structural position by protecting their
allies, particularly those that might provide a counter-veiling coalition against rivals (in Russias case, the
US).[27] Some analysts have applied this logic to Russias Syria intervention. Kozak described Russias
protection of Assad as an attempt to keep Syria in their axis of power.[28] This argument is reinforced
by Bourtman who claims that Russia-Syria ties are bound together by a shared opposition to US
hegemony.[29] Hence, the protection of Assad could be viewed as an attempt to preserve Russias
structural position by ensuring the continued existence of a regional pro-Russian bloc.
Russia has strategic motivations in keeping Assad in power, and may perceive a threat to these interests
as a threat to its structural international position. Various analysts have argued that Russias intervention
is driven by its aim of retaining its only Mediterranean naval base in the Syrian city of Tartus, as
possession of this base likely depends on a pro-Russian regime.[30] Certainly, in congruence with
neorealism, Russia considers the Tartus naval base an important component of its material capabilities.
The Kremlins Maritime Doctrine of the Russian Federation 2020 recommended a permanent Russian
Navy presence in the Mediterranean.[31] Tartus is a receiving point for Russian weapon shipments and
capable of docking nuclear submarines. Russias naval commander-in-chief unambiguously called the
base essential.[32]

Similarly, Moscow has economic interests in preserving Assads rule, and may correspondingly view any
threat to his regime threatening to its own structural position. Russia is an important supplier of arms to
Syria. By 2012 Syrian contracts with the Russian defence industry exceeded $4 billion.[33] Russia also has
energy interests in Syria. In particular, it is opposed to a new pipeline through Syrian territory which
would allow a greater volume of Qatari gas on to the European market, undermining Russias
monopolistic dominance. Russia may fear Assads overthrow will lead to this pipeline being built.[34]

Thus Russia does appear to have material interests in preserving the Assad regime. But in reality these
interests are limited (suggesting they do not influence its structural position) and the interventions scale
and timing do not indicate Russia sought solely to protect these interests. This challenges the neorealist
claim that Russia aimed to preserve its material structural position.

Although Russian intervention has sought to solidify the regimes rule, it is unlikely that protecting a pro-
Russian bloc (thus maintaining its structural position) was the reason for doing so. If this was the aim, it
is difficult to explain why Russia waited for Assads power to be severely debilitated by five years of
conflict (losing 80% of his territory) before intervening.[35] It is likewise improbable Moscow would
consider a weakened pro-Russian Syria a valuable component of its axis of power.[36] A 2014 UN report
indicated that Syrias economy would take at least thirty years to recover to 2010 levels.[37] Moreover,
Russias support for Syria has alienated key regional partners including Turkey and the Gulf states. Were
the Assad regime to survive, it would face a number of hostile regimes nearby, most prominently Saudi
Arabia.[38] In neorealist terms, a scenario in which more states balanced against an ally would damage
Russias structural position, and possibly draw her into harmful conflict through the chain-gang effect.
[39]

Equally, Russias limited material interests are unlikely to impact its structural position and do not
warrant its substantial intervention. Tartus houses only fifty Russian servicemen and has outdated
facilities, leading some authors to question its strategic relevance.[40] Given that Russia views a naval
presence in the Mediterranean important to its future military posture, Allisons argument that Tartus
merely represents strategic nostalgia probably goes too far.[41] But the bases historically limited nature
makes it difficult to argue that Russia perceived the base to be so immediately vital its protection
required a large-scale intervention. Russia likewise has limited economic interests in Syria. Syria
amounted to only 0.1% of total Russian trade in 2011[42] and currently only 5% of arms exports.[43]
Whereas Russia has abundant domestic reserves of energy, Syrias reserves are rapidly declining. The
reason a new pipeline has not been opened through Syria has less to do with Assad, and is better
explained by Qatars ambivalence toward the project.[44]

There is another plausible mechanism through which neorealism could explain Russias intervention. The
Syrian conflict has increased the capabilities of Islamist terror groups, which Russia might view as a
threat to its structural position. But while Russia has concerns over terrorism, it is doubtful it considers
the menace large enough to detriment its structural position.

The Russian regime undoubtedly believes Islamist terror groups based in Syria, most prominently Islamic
State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), pose a national security threat. Russians make up the fourth largest
contingent of Syrias foreign fighters (many affiliated to extremist groups) and they may be a security
problem if they return home.[45] Islamist groups could destabilise Russias North Caucasus region. In
June 2015 ISIS declared the region a province of its caliphate.[46] This development might be of
particular importance, because Putin has previously described the North Caucasus issue in existential
terms. In an interview in 2000 he claimed its loss would mean Russia as a state in its current form would
cease to exist.[47] Such statements reinforce the neorealist explanation, as they suggest the Russian
regime believes its very survival (and hence its structural position) is threatened by Islamist terror
groups.

The Kremlin has highlighted the threat of Islamist terrorism and used it as a justification for Russian
intervention. Lavrov has labelled ISIS the regions primary threat.[48] Putin declared Russian
intervention would fight and destroy militants and terrorists in Syria.[49] He has also explained his
support for Assad is partly premised on the latters opposition to these groups.[50] The evidence shows
the Russian regime believes Islamist terror groups pose a national security threat and has used this as a
reason for intervention.

Although these security factors are undoubtedly important to Moscows intervention, neorealism would
go further and claim that Russia acted because it believed the terrorist threat could impact its structural
position. But it seems improbable Russia perceives the danger to be so extensive. Souleimanov and
Petrtylova find Russian political elites have expressed fairly diverse opinions on the nature and extent of
ISISs threat.[51] Even in April 2015 when the groups destabilising effect in North Caucasus was palpable,
Putin remarked that ISIS still presents no direct threat to Russia.[52] Some elites may even believe that
by draining North Caucasus of potential fighters, the Syrian conflict benefits Russias national security.
[53] This might help explain various reports of regional Russian officials turning a blind eye to individuals
leaving for Syria.[54]
Furthermore, the timing and nature of the Russian intervention does not correspond with the neorealist
explanation. If the Russian regime truly saw the threat of terror groups as so grave, it might have been
expected to support (or bandwagon with) the US-led coalitions airstrikes against ISIS which began in
August 2014. But Russia instead opposed the campaign.[55] Russia targeted more moderate opposition
groups over ISIS in its interventions initial weeks (although this has partially changed since the Sinai
plane attack).[56] The US State Departments claim on 7 October that 90% of Russian airstrikes had hit
non-ISIS or Al-Qaeda affiliated targets is reaffirmed by more independent sources.[57] Although Russia
attacked other Islamist terror groups such as al-Nusra Front[58], the fact that it did not initially target
ISIS (the most powerful such group) indicates fighting Islamist terrorism was not Russias priority,
suggesting terrorism is not viewed to have structural consequences.

Overall, attempting to explain Russias intervention with neorealism highlights the economic, strategic
and security concerns that have motivated Russian intervention in Syria. However, it was shown that
these concerns were limited (making it unlikely Russia considered them important to its structural
position) and relatedly that the scale and timing of its intervention does not indicate Russia solely sought
to protect these interests. Neorealism was therefore an incomplete explanation of Russias intervention.

Why does neorealism explain so little? Waltz argued neorealism is an IR theory and cannot explain a
singular states foreign policy, though he frequently applies it for this purpose (see above explanation of
the US invasion of Vietnam).[59] Many theorists consider Waltzs division between IR and foreign policy
theory non-existent and neorealism has, in line with this essay, been frequently applied to explain states
foreign policy decisions.[60] Perhaps more importantly, this case study might exemplify the common
critique of neorealism, which is its inapplicability to non-state actors. Neorealism was developed to
parsimoniously explain relations between states, not their complex interactions with terrorist groups.
[61]

Constructivism Russias Honour as an Explanation

If Tsygankovs constructivist honour theory adequately explains Russias intervention, there should be
evidence that Russia is acting on its sense of honour both externally (a desire to be part of the West) and
internally (spiritual freedom, aiding cultural allies, strong state and an aspiration to be seen as a great
power). Further, an explanation of Russias assertive action would require evidence that the West did not
recognise Russias internal honour commitments, and that Russia had confidence in its own capabilities.
Although there is considerable supporting evidence, the case study demonstrates two problems with the
theory. Firstly, in contrast to neorealism, it suffers from the other minds problem. Secondly, Russias
honour commitments are too loosely defined, meaning they could be stretched conceptually to include a
whole variety of different actions. If too many foreign policy actions can be subsumed under the banner
of honour then the theorys testability is reduced. The theory thus has significant explanatory capacity
but its mechanisms need to be more specifically defined.

As Tsygankovs honour theory would predict, there is some evidence that Russian intervention reflects its
external honour commitment to be part of the Western world. Echoing its stance following 9/11, Russia
wants to act as the protector of European civilisation.[62] Putin has described the fight against ISIS in
such terms, calling the group an enemy of civilisation subscribing to an ideology ofbarbarity.[63]
Because European identity was partly formed on this dichotomy between civilised and barbarian[64],
by identifying with the former, Putin seemingly aligned himself with the European world. The Russian
press has taken a similar line, with one prominent news anchor claiming Russia is saving Europe from
barbarism.[65]

However, although Tsygankov is partially correct to claim Russia seeks to be part of the Western world,
he goes too far by suggesting its sense of external honour ultimately is a general aspiration to be like
the West.[66] While Tsygankov recognises Russia does not always act like the West, he claims
diversions from this position derive from incompatible internal conceptions of honour.[67] The Syria
intervention however suggests Russia wants to deliberately appear different from the West externally.
Russian officials have highlighted how their intervention is distinct from the Wests approach. As one put
it, we do not want the US and the West to cheer for us in Syria.[68] Russias deputy Prime Minister
unfavourably compared the Wests handling of the Syria crisis to the way a monkey handles a grenade.
[69] The intervention in Syria therefore only gives partial support for this aspect of Tsygankovs theory,
suggesting Russias external honour commitments are more complex than an inherent desire to mirror
the West. Such a finding does not wholly undermine Tsygankovs theory but does suggest his description
of external honour needs to be more nuanced.

The motivations behind Russias intervention can be shown to be substantially rooted in its internal
honour commitments. Tsygankov argues Russias spiritual freedom and Christian identity have shaped its
foreign policy. In Syria, Christian communities have been severely persecuted but are reportedly safer
under regime control.[70] Shoring up Assads regime would therefore help to protect Syrias Christian
community. The Russian Orthodox Church, closely aligned with the Kremlin, described the campaign as a
holy war, and declared that protecting Christians is a major justification for intervening.[71] Christians
have been persecuted throughout the conflict, indicating their protection was not a sufficient cause for
intervening. But the fact the Assad regime appeared close to collapse likely meant Russias Christian
identity helped to motivate a campaign that secured his rule.

Russias intervention can also be interpreted as a desire to protect its cultural allies, although the vague
nature of this phrase demonstrates the difficulty of testing Tsygankovs theory. Tsygankov defines
contemporary Russias cultural allies as ethnic Russians and those who have historically gravitated
toward Russia.[72] It could certainly be argued that Moscow intervened to protect such cultural allies.
The protection of both Christians and the thousands of Russians who live in Syria (whose wellbeing likely
relies on Assads rule) could come under this label, and might have been a further reason for
intervention.[73] Other analysts identify a shared affinity between the Russian and Syrian regimes
premised on their ideological alliance through the Cold War and their continued opposition to US
hegemony.[74] Based on these cross-regime ties, Moscows internal honour commitment to protecting
cultural allies was one motivation for its campaign to protect the regime.

However, Tsygankovs vague definition of cultural allies makes the explanatory capacity of this honour
commitment difficult to test. For example, although some authors identify a cultural and ideological
affinity between the two regimes, Allison argues that the relationship is grounded on realpolitik
considerations.[75] The Russian media frequently criticises Assad[76], and he has been described by
former Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov as a difficult partner.[77] Consequently, it seems debatable
whether the Syrian regime truly represents a Russian cultural ally, but it is also also difficult to make such
a judgement absent a clear definition. This partially inhibits an assessment of whether Russian action is
driven by its internal honour commitment to cultural allies.

Moscows internal honour commitment to a strong internal state can also be seen as an underlying
reason for its intervention. Numerous analysts have argued that Russia has prevented Assad from being
deposed by Western backed opposition because it worries the resulting precedent might lead to its own
regime being overthrown.[78] These analysts frequently point to the existence of political unrest in
Russia, which supposedly causes the Kremlin to draw parallels between Assads survival and its own.
There is some evidence this challenge to its own strong state pushed Russia into intervening. The
language used by the Russian Foreign Ministrys spokeswoman possibly indicates this worry; she warned
on 3 November that Syrian regime change would create a large black hole, perhaps implying Russia
could be sucked in to a similar process.[79] Nonetheless, in general the problem with this argument is
that it does not present comprehensive evidence the Russian regime substantively fears for its own
survival through this process (a fear it is unlikely to frequently air in public). Testing the theory is thus
inhibited by the other minds problem. That is not to say Russia did not act on its internal honour
commitment to a strong state by intervening in Syria, as some evidence supports this argument.
Nonetheless, the evidence for this honour commitment is limited where it relies heavily on the
perceptions of Russian leaders.

Finally, if Tsygankovs theory is accurate, Russias desire to be viewed as a great power should be one of
the reasons for its intervention. While one can find evidence to support this argument, Tsygankov does
not define which actions Russia considers appropriate to its role as a great power. Absent a definition, it
is hard to assess whether intervention in Syria correlates with this honour commitment.

One role Russia appears to believe important to its identity as a great power is a belief it should be a
major stakeholder in international diplomacy.[80] Lavrov alluded to this self-conception in explaining
Russias Foreign Policy Philosophy: Russia as a global playerby right has the role as one of the key
experts.[81] Various analysts have correspondingly claimed Russia intervened in order to place itself at
the centre of diplomatic efforts.[82] This aim likely explains Putins preference for an international anti-
ISIS coalition (presumably with Russia at the centre) over bandwagoning on the US-led coalition.[83]
Russia seems intent on increasing its diplomatic role to a level equivalent to the US, and Russians keenly
tout their influential position.[84] One prominent Russian politician claimed Russias diplomacy means
the U.S. will find itself playing second fiddle losing the battle for global opinion.[85] Therefore Russias
intervention, which has secured it as a crucial diplomatic player, appears to reflect its sense of internal
honour as an aim to be perceived as a great power.

However, Tsygankov never clearly delineates which actions Russia considers to be appropriate to its great
power image aspirations. The preceding paragraph made a credible case that being at the centre of
world diplomacy reflects what Russia considers important to its great power role and that its actions in
Syria reflect this honour commitment. But describing Russias self-conception of great power status may
be less straightforward. For instance, some analysts have argued its great power status is predicated on
its consistent opposition to NATO.[86] Without closely defining what actions Russia sees as appropriate
to its great power image, it is difficult to evaluate whether it is acting in concert with this honour
commitment. For example, if Russia sees diplomatic centrality as crucial to its great power role, its
possible moves toward cooperating with the West over Syria would be compatible with such a role, but
less compatible if Russia considers its great power status to be derived from consistent opposition to
NATO. As with the concept of cultural allies, without knowing which actions are congruent with this
honour commitment, it is difficult to comprehensively test the theory.

Nevertheless, temporarily leaving aside the theorys conceptual shortcomings, there is evidence that
Russias internal honour commitments underlay its decision to intervene. But Tsygankov contends Russia
only acts assertively when: (1) the West does not recognise Russias internal honour commitments and
(2) when Russia has confidence in its own capabilities. Below I show both processes were likely present,
reinforcing Tsygankovs theory.

Throughout its consistent opposition to Russias position on Syria, the West has has not recognised
Russias internal honour commitments. The West has portrayed Russias stance as immoral, insinuating it
acts outside of any honour-based good and virtuous course of action. For example, in 2012 British Prime
Minister David Cameron lambasted Moscows diplomatic support for Assad claiming no one of
conscience could act in such a way.[87] Russias role has also been characterised as self-interested and
antithetical to international obligations, which fails to recognise its self-image as a great power central to
world diplomacy. In 2013, the US ambassador to the UN attacked Russia for shirking its international
responsibilities with regard to Syria.[88] Hence, as honour theory would predict, the West does not
appear to have recognised and accepted Russias honour commitments.

Russia might well possess high confidence in its own capabilities, though making conclusive judgement
again runs into the other minds problem. Putins rhetoric appears to reflect confidence. His recent
speeches have criticised US unilateralism and called for Russia to strive to be leaders internationally.
[89] Putins regime may well have a large degree of confidence in their foreign policy decisions given
Russias annexation of Crimea, and their strong domestic support (particularly in foreign affairs).[90] But
once again, assessing the authenticity of Russias confident tones relies on overcoming the other minds
problem. One could convincingly argue that because of Russias extensive economic problems, the
Kremlins internal confidence might be minimal.[91] Thus unlike using a neorealist account which would
objectively measure material capabilities, absent insider access to the Kremlin it is challenging to
measure the extent of confidence Russia has in its own capabilities, posing a further constraint on testing
Tsygankovs theory.

Overall, there was considerable evidence to reinforce Tsygankovs honour-based theory. Although I
argued elements of the theory may require refiningparticularly that Russia wholly aspires to be like the
WestI showed that one could make a credible case this theory explained Russias intervention in Syria.
However, I demonstrated the theory suffered from two other shortcomings. Firstly, it was constrained by
the other minds problem. Secondly, although any definition of Russias honour commitments should
account for change over time[92], Tsygankov defines the elements of the theory (particularly the
components of Russias honour) too loosely, making empirical testing challenging. Nonetheless, the
substantial evidence accumulated to support the honour theory suggested it has a considerable degree
of explanatory capacity. In future, Tsyganksov could enhance his honour based explanation by providing
more specific definitions, which would allow scholars to test his theory more comprehensively.

Conclusions

Rather than providing a review of all the reasons behind Russias intervention in Syria, this essay used
the intervention as a case study to compare the explanatory capacity of neorealism and constructivism.
Having outlined each theorys main arguments, I considered the extent to which each accounted for the
intervention. Neorealism usefully highlighted the material motivations behind Russias intervention in
Syria. But its central argument that Russia acted in order to preserve its structural position in the
international systemwas not supported, and neorealism therefore had a limited explanatory capacity.

The study presented a more positive picture for Tsygankovs honour theory. There was substantial
evidence to reinforce its central thesis that Russias actions were driven by its socially constructed
conception of honour, suggesting the theory potentially has a large amount of explanatory power. The
case study also highlighted two problems. Firstly, the theory suffers from the other minds problem, and
secondly, empirical testing was inhibited by its tendency to loosely define terms. However, neither
problem wholly diminished its explanatory capacity and it was suggested the theorys utility could be
enhanced with more specific definitions.

In light of the Wests ostensible ambition to further cooperate with Russia over Syria, what are these
findings implications?[93] Neorealisms limited capacity to explain the intervention cautions that
Western observers should be wary of wholly characterising Russias behaviour in self-interested, zero-
sum terms. On the contrary, the considerable explanatory power of Tsyganksovs honour theory
indicated that representing Russia in this way will make her more assertive and less amenable to
cooperation. Honour theory contends that meaningful cooperation will only be achieved with Western
recognition that Russias intervention is driven less by selfish motivations and more by its own
conception of honourable international behaviour.

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Endnotes

[1] Louisa Loveluck and Roland Oliphant, Russia Sends Its Most Advanced Tanks to Syria Frontline, The
Daily Telegraph, December 4, 2015,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/12034237/Russia-sends-its-most-
advanced-tanks-to-Syria-frontline.html.

[2] Roy Allison, Russia and Syria: Explaining Alignment with a Regime in Crisis, International Affairs 89,
no. 4 (July 2013): 795.

[3] Tom Coghlan, Assad Admits His Army Is Exhausted and in Retreat, The Times, July 27, 2015,
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/middleeast/article4508876.ece.

[4] Nikolay Kozhanov, Moscow Plays Poker in Syria: Whats at Stake?, Carnegie Moscow Center,
October 21, 2015, accessed November 29, 2015, http://carnegie.ru/2015/10/21/moscow-plays-poker-in-
syria-what-s-at-stake/ikfx.

[5] BBC News. Syria Conflict: Putin Defends Russias Air Strikes. BBC Middle East, October 12, 2015,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34502286.

[6] Elizabeth Pineau and Denis Pinchuk, Hollande, Putin Agree to Work More Closely to Combat Islamic
State in Syria, Reuters, November 27, 2015, http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/11/27/mideast-crisis-
russia-france-idINKBN0TG0BO20151127.
[7] Quoted in Russia Today, No Peace Can Come to Syria Without Assad Lavrov, Russia Today,
November 20, 2015, https://www.rt.com/news/322723-lavrov-assad-peace-syria/.

[8] Bassam Barabandi, Aaron Hesse, and P. J. Dermer, Russias New Middle East Great Game, Middle
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[9] Knud Erik Jrgensen, International Relations Theory: A New Introduction (Basingstoke: Palsgrave
Macmillan, 2010), 7-9.

[10] Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics, 1st ed. (New York: Random House USA, 1979).

[11] Andrei P. Tsygankov, Russia and the West from Alexander to Putin: Honor in International Relations
(United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press, 2014).

[12] Dale C. Copeland, The Constructivist Challenge to Structural Realism: A Review Essay, International
Security 25, no. 2 (October 2000): 200 201. By recognising this problem, I am aligning my argument
with Copelands critique of Wendts theory. Unlike Wendt, I consider the other minds problem to still be
prevalent in international relations.

[13] In a review of Tsygankovs book, Cooley makes a similar argument. See Alexander Cooley. Review of
Russia and the West from Alexander to Putin, Andrei Tsygankov. Slavic Review 73, no. 1 (March 2014):
207.

[14] Steffano Guzzini, A Reconstruction of Constructivism in International Relations, European Journal

of International Relations 6, no. 2 (June 2000): 147182.

[15] Waltz, Theory of International Politics, 190.

[16] John Mearsheimer, Structural Realism, in International Relations Theories: Discipline and Diversity,
ed. Tim Dunne, Milja Kurki, and Steve Smith (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010), 7793.
[17] Mark Webber, NATO after 9/11: Theoretical Perspectives, in NATO beyond 9/11: The
Transformation of the Atlantic Alliance, ed. Ellen Hallams, Luca Ratti, and Benjamin Zyla (Basingstoke:
Palgrave Macmillan, 2013), 43.

[18] Nicolas Onuf, World of Our Making: Rules and Rule in Social Theory and International Relations, 1st
ed. (South Carolina: Columbia, 1989); Alexander Wendt, Anarchy Is What States Make of It: The Social
Construction of Power Politics, International Organization 46, no. 2 (March 1992): 391425.

[19] Webber, NATO after 9/11, 43 44.

[20] Ronald Grigor Suny, Living in the Hood: Russia, Empire, and Old and New Neighbors, in Russian
Foreign Policy in the 21st Century & the Shadow of the Past, ed. Robert Legvold (New York: Columbia
University Press, 2007), 39.

[21] K. M. Fierke, Constructivism, in International Relations Theories: Discipline and Diversity, ed. Tim
Dunne, Milja Kurki, and Steve Smith (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010), 181.

[22] Ibid., 185.

[23] Copeland, The Constructivist Challenge to Structural Realism, 187212.

[24] Tsyganksov is not the first to use honour as a concept to explain states foreign policy. See for
instance Brent J. Steele, Ontological Security in International Relations: Self-Identity and the IR State
(new International Relations), 1st ed. (New York: Routledge, 2008).

[25] Tsygankov, Russia and the West, 4.

[26] Ibid., 1-60.

[27] William D. Jackson, Imagining Russia in Western International Relations Theory, University of
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terrorists-syria/2987603.html.

[29] Ilya Bourtman, Putin and Russias Middle Eastern Policy, Middle East Review of International
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[30] Amy Knight, Why Russia Needs Syria, New York Review of Books, October 8, 2015, accessed
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[31] Quoted in Edward Delman, The Link Between Putins Military Campaigns in Syria and Ukraine, The
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[32] Quoted in Frank Gardner, How Vital Is Syrias Tartus Port to Russia?, BBC Middle East, June 27,
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[33] Jeffrey Mankoff, Russias Self-Defeating Game in Syria, (Washington DC: Center for Strategic &
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[39] Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns
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[40] Gardner, How Vital Is Syrias Tartus Port to Russia?

[41] Allison, Russia and Syria, 807.

[42] Thomas Juneau, U.S. Power in the Middle East: Not Declining, Middle East Policy 21, no. 2 (June
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[43] Dannreuther, Russia and the Arab Spring, 88 89.

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[48] Quoted in Nikolay Kozhanov,nov, bequent itmentg illegality of Israeli occupationsecurity threats
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[51] Emil Aslan Souleimanov and Katarina Petrtylova, Russias Policy Toward the Islamic State, Middle
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[53] Quoted in Ibid., 70.

[54] Ibid., 70.

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[58] Kozhanov, Moscow Plays Poker in Syria.

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[62] Tsygankov, Russia and the West, 124.

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[66] Tsygankov, Russia and the West, 52.

[67] Ibid., 4060.

[68] Quoted in Pascale Menassa, Russian Ambassador to Lebanon Speaks Out, Al-Monitor, October 23,
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[69] Quoted in Holly Yan, Syria Allies: Why Russia, Iran and China Are Standing by the Regime, CNN,
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church-1521847.

[72] Tsygankov, Russia and the West, 34.

[73] Ed Husain, Can Russia Really Be a Partner to Bring Peace to Syria?, The New York Times,
September 21, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/09/21/can-russia-really-be-a-
partner-to-bring-peace-to-syria/no-peace-in-syria-without-working-with-russia.

[74] The Economist, Why Russia Is an Ally of Assad, The Economist, September 30, 2015,
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/09/economist-explains-22.

[75] Allison, Russia and Syria, 30.

[76] James Brown, Better One Tiger Than Ten Thousand Rabid Rats: Russian Media Coverage of the
Syrian Conflict, International Politics 51, no. 1 (January 2014): 4566.

[77] Quoted in Shaun Walker and Julian Borger, Syria and World Wait Putins Reaction to Apparent
Bombing of Russian Jet, The Guardian, November 11, 2015,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/10/syria-world-putin-bombing-russian-jet.

[78] Allison, Russia and Syria,; Samuel Charap, Russia, Syria and the Doctrine of Intervention, Survival
55, no. 1 (March 2013): 3541; Dannreuther, Russia and the Arab Spring.

[79] Quoted in Jack Stubbs and Polina Devitt, Russia Stance on Assad Suggests Divergence with Iran,
Reuters, November 3, 2015, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/03/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-
idUSKCN0SS0TY20151103.

[80] Richard Weitz, Global Security Watch Russia: A Reference Handbook (Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger
Security

International, 2009), 166.

[81] Sergey Lavrov, Russias Foreign Policy Philosophy, International Affairs, no. 3 (June 2013): 17.

[82] Andrew Osborn and Christian Lowe, After Assad Audience, Russia Eyes Seizing Diplomatic Initiative
on Syria, Reuters, October 22, 2015, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/10/22/uk-mideast-crisis-syria-
russia-idUKKCN0SG2JS20151022.

[83] Vladimir Putin, Speech at CSTO Summit, ed. Collective Security Treaty Organisation (Dushanbe,
Tajikistan, 2015), http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50291.

[84] Julia Ioffe, Russias Game Plan in Syria Is Simple: Stick It to the Americans, Foreign Policy,
September 25, 2015, http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/25/russias-game-plan-in-syn-assad/.

[85] Quoted in Ibid.

[86] Olga Oliker, Michael J. McNerny, and Lynn E. Davis, NATO Needs a Comprehensive Strategy for
Russia, (Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation, 2015),
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PE100/E143/RAND_PE143.pdf, 18.

[87] Quoted in Nicholas Watt, David Cameron Attacks UN for Inaction on Syria, The Guardian, May 21,
2014, http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/sep/26/david-cameron-un-inaction-syria.

[88] Quoted in Rick Gladstone, New U.S. Envoy to U.N. Strongly Condemns Russia, New York Times,
September 5, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/06/world/middleeast/new-us-envoy-to-un-
strongly-condemns-russia.html?_r=0.

[89] Vladimir Putin, Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly, ed. The Kremlin (Moscow, Russia,
2013), http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19825;Vladimir Putin, President Vladimir Putins
Address to the General Assembly of the United Nations, (New York, United States: United Nations, 2015),
http://gadebate.un.org/sites/default/files/gastatements/70/70_RU_EN.pdf.

[90] Katie Simmons, Bruce Stokes, and Jacob Pousheter, Russian Public Opinion: Putin Praised, West
Panned, Pew Research Center, June 10, 2015, accessed November 24, 2015,
http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/06/10/2-russian-public-opinion- putin-praised-west-panned/.

[91] VOA News, Putin: No Reason Yet for Confidence in Russias Economy, Voice of America, November
26, 2015, http://www.voanews.com/content/reu-putin-says-no-reason-for-confidence-in-russian-
economy/2686851.html.

[92] Tsygankov, Russia and the West, 2839.

[93] Vladimir Isachenkov and Josh Lederman, Narrowing Rift, US and Russia Entertain Cooperation in
Syria, Washington Post, November 17, 2015,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/narrowing-rift-us-and-russia-entertain-cooperation-in-
syria/2015/11/18/a5042b38-8dd8-11e5-934c-a369c80822c2_story.html.

Written by: Simon Allcock

Written at: University of Exeter

Written for: Dr Irene Fernandez-Molina

Date written: December 2015