Global Change – The IGBP Series

Christopher J. Crossland · Hartwig H. Kremer · Han J. Lindeboom

Janet I. Marshall Crossland · Martin D. A. Le Tissier (Eds.)

Coastal Fluxes
in the Anthropocene
The Land-Ocean Interactions in the
Coastal Zone Project of the International
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme

With 121 Figures

Editors

Christopher J. Crossland Han J. Lindeboom

Centre of Marine Studies Alterra
The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia Royal NIOZ
and Texel, The Netherlands
Institute for Health, Sustainability and Regional Engagement
University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Australia Janet I. Marshall Crossland
Hartwig H. Kremer Yaroomba
Queensland, Australia
Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH
LOICZ IPO (International Project Office) Martin D. A. Le Tissier
Max Planck Strasse 1
21502 Geesthacht, Germany LOICZ IPO
[email protected] Royal NIOZ
www.loicz.org Texel, The Netherlands

Library of Congress Control Number: 2005926496

ISSN 1619-2435
ISBN-10 3-540-25450-1 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York
ISBN-13 978-3-540-25450-8 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York

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Preface

In an ever-changing world, the global coastal zone stands out as an area of extraor-
dinary changes. These changes are shaped by natural processes and phenomena
that influence the Earth systems – on land, in the ocean, in the atmosphere, at their
interfaces and at planetary scales – and ensure a dynamic coastal environment that
has continued to respond and adapt biologically, physically and chemically in unique
ways. Now there is a greater catalyst for change in the coastal zone – human society
– impacting directly on coastal processes and systems and indirectly through modi-
fication of the natural processes and events.
The world’s coastal zone is a long narrow feature of mainland, islands and adja-
cent seas denoting a zone of transition between land and ocean. Humans have lived
in the coastal zone for millennia utilising its many and rich resources for their sur-
vival and socio-economic benefit. The coastal zone is the area where 25% of global
primary productivity occurs, and it supplies about 70% of global fish catch. Some
50% of the people in the world live in this relatively small but highly productive,
highly valued and highly dynamic domain which occupies 12% of the surface of the
Earth. The density of coastal populations varies dramatically among different coastal
regions, and there is a general trend of people moving from inland regions to the
coast. The richness and diversity of resources found in coastal areas has long been
recognised by humans, and there has been a corresponding concentration of hu-
man activities and settlements along shorelines and estuaries throughout the world.
It is clear that the coast will continue to sustain the livelihoods of a very large
proportion of the human population, both those living there and those living inland.
The coastal zone is therefore an important asset to people worldwide.
At the same time, the coastal zone is a domain of constant change and one of the
most threatened areas on Earth. Changing wave and current regimes, climate,
morphological processes and fluxes of materials between land, atmosphere and
oceans are causes of high natural variability which is still imperfectly understood.
In the last several decades, with their increasing technological capabilities, hu-
mans have accelerated the rate of change and increased their influence on already
highly variable ecosystems (Steffen et al. 2004). Pollution, eutrophication, chang-
ing sediment load, urbanisation, land reclamation, overfishing, mining and tour-
ism continuously threaten the future of coastal ecosystems. Impacts on the coastal
zone originate locally, regionally and globally, and an understanding of these im-
pacts is now obligatory within the context of global change, including climate
change. Although most impacts are addressed at local and regional levels, the scale
of development and population growth along all coasts of the world is increasing
such that it has become a truly global issue. Despite the rapidly increasing knowl-
edge about coastal ecosystems, crucial questions on the causes of natural variabil-
ity and the effects of human impacts are still unanswered. Although the perception
of environmental managers of our coasts is shifting from one of mainly short-
term economic approaches towards long-term economic, ecological and sustain-
able perspective, the need for this shift in management practice is often ignored or
difficult to communicate to policy-makers. In particular there is a widespread ig-
VI Preface

norance among coastal stakeholders of the multiplicity of temporal and spatial

scales across which coasts are affected including the continuum from river catch-
ment to the coastal ocean (Meybeck and Vogler 2004). The major challenge that we
face today is managing the human use of coastal habitats so that future genera-
tions can also enjoy the many visual, cultural, edible products and sustainable
resources that they provide.
Sustainable use and protection of the Earth’s coastal areas are now items high
on international agendas. The increasing international instruments, such as the
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS), Rio Agenda 21, and
the Conventions on Wetlands, Biodiversity and Desertification provide important
mechanisms for coastal management.
The need for increased knowledge about global change and its ramifications
for the functioning of Earth systems motivated the establishment by the Interna-
tional Council for Science (ICSU) in the late 1980s of the global research initiative
– International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme: A Study of Global Change (IGBP)
which aims “to describe and understand

the interactive physical, chemical and biological processes that regulate the total
Earth system,

the unique environment that it provides for life,

the changes that are occurring in the system, and

the manner in which they are influenced by human actions.” (http://www.igbp.kva.se)

The Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) project was estab-
lished in 1993 as one of eight core projects of IGBP, and was directed to provide
scientific information to answer the IGBP core question: “How will changes in
land use, sea level and climate alter coastal ecosystems, and what are the wider
consequences?”
Fundamental to answering this question is the need to recognise that the coastal
zone is not a geographic boundary of interaction between the land and the sea but
a global compartment of special significance, not only for biogeochemical cycling
and processes but increasingly for human habitation and economies. Also, the
spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the world’s coastal zone is considerable.
Consequently, challenging methodological problems are associated with develop-
ing global perspectives of the role of the coastal zone compartment in the func-
tioning of the Earth system. Clearly, a useful and practical knowledge of the globally
heterogeneous coastal zone depends on harnessing an array of research from
natural and social sciences and integrating with those both anthropocentric and
geocentric forces of change. The LOICZ project is designed to encompass these
elements in providing science information to the global community, which should
then be of use to decision-makers and coastal zone managers globally.
The LOICZ Science Plan (Holligan and de Boois 1993) developed four over-
arching objectives to address the IGBP question:

1. To determine at global and regional scales: the fluxes of materials between land,
sea and atmosphere through the coastal zone, the capacity of coastal systems to
transform and store particulate and dissolved matter, and the effect of changes
in external forcing conditions on the structure and functioning of coastal eco-
systems.
2. To determine how changes in land use, climate, sea level and human activities
alter the fluxes and retention of particulate matter in the coastal zone, and affect
coastal morphodynamics.
3. To determine how changes in coastal systems, including responses to varying
terrestrial and oceanic inputs of organic matter and nutrients, will affect the
global carbon cycle and the trace gas composition of the atmosphere.
 Preface VII

4. To assess how responses of coastal systems to global change will affect the habi-
tation and usage by humans of coastal environments, and to develop further the
scientific and socio-economic bases for the integrated management of coastal
environments.

These objectives, however, do not imply that LOICZ is actively undertaking

coastal zone management, but rather it is providing knowledge and tools that
underpin options for alternatives in development and decision-making. A clear
goal is to provide a sound scientific basis for future sustainable use and integrated
management of the components of coastal environments, under conditions of
global change.
Following consultation with scientists globally, the LOICZ Implementation Plan
(Pernetta and Milliman 1995) identified the array of issues and science that needed
to be addressed, recognising the large (and somewhat prohibitive) funding re-
quirements for a global coastal research programme. Operationally, LOICZ focussed
on gaining an understanding at global scales of the following questions:

Is the coastal zone a sink or source of CO2?

What are mass balances of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus in the coastal zone?

How are humans altering these mass balances, and what are the consequences?

What is the role of the coastal zone in trace gas (e.g., DMS, NOX) emissions?

How do changes in land use, climate and sea level alter the fluxes and retention of
water and particulate matter in the coastal zone and affect coastal morphodynamics?

How can knowledge of the processes and impacts of biogeochemical and socio-
economic changes be applied to improve integrated management of the coastal
environment?

For the last decade, LOICZ has addressed these questions by focussing on hori-
zontal material fluxes and scaling of processes through the application of environ-
mental and socio-economic sciences. These activities have used results from re-
search programs and contributions of individual scientists, and LOICZ has built a
large network of researchers across more than 80 countries to develop collabora-
tive and interdisciplinary projects to meet the goals outlined in the LOICZ science
plan and implementation strategy.
This book provides a synthesis of the LOICZ work during its first decade ending
2002. It represents a milestone rather than a destination for the journey of collabo-
rative inquiry into material fluxes and human interactions in the coastal zone.
While compilation of the individual chapters have been the responsibility of the
identified authors (see Authors and Contributors), the overall work represents an
enormous amount of effort and research by many thousands of scientists who have
contributed to the LOICZ enterprise. Some of these many contributions are found
in LOICZ publications from workshops that have addressed regional and thematic
coastal science (see Appendix A.1) as well as in the wider scientific literature.
This book addresses key elements of material flux in the coastal zone and
indications of change, then draws together the biogeochemical information with
an assessment of the influence of human society, before looking at future needs for
targeted research and management actions in the coastal zone.
Chapter 1 provides a description and operational definition of the coastal zone.
By discussing its spatial and temporal heterogeneity and natural variability, the
authors differentiate between variability and change, and consider the dynamics
of human population as a forcing factor for change. Changes in the intensity and
extent of human drivers and pressures for change are outlined, along with a con-
sideration of economic valuation of coastal resources and services. The challenges
in assessing change at global scales and the approaches taken by LOICZ are pre-
sented, especially the new tool of typology.
VIII Preface

Chapter 2 addresses the dynamics of a changing coastal boundary. Projections

in sea level fluctuation are reviewed along with the implications for changed coastal
and shoreline vulnerability. Changes in sediment and water fluxes to the coastal sea
are undergoing major changes. The magnitude of the changes and their ramifica-
tions on coastal and estuarine morphologies are highlighted, noting especially the
role of dams and reservoirs, other water impoundments and coastal water extrac-
tion. Submarine groundwater discharge is discussed, including new methods for
assessment, the biogeochemical implications of these fluxes and the need for im-
proved understanding and appropriate management of this regionally important
freshwater resource.
Chapter 3 examines the biogeochemical fluxes of nutrients, especially carbon,
nitrogen and phosphorus transport and transformations, within the coastal zone.
The question of whether the coastal zone is a source or sink for carbon is exam-
ined. The role of estuaries and coastal seas as “incubators” of inorganic nutrients
is assessed, including a system’s capabilities as a region for net nitrogen gas release
or retention. New estimates of inorganic nutrient discharge from river catch-
ments are derived that show significant changes in loads to the coastal seas within
the last 30 years. The typology approach developed by LOICZ is used to aggregate
the many estimates of metabolic performance by relatively small-scale estuarine
and coastal sea ecosystems to achieve global measures of nutrient and net meta-
bolic changes, especially those related to nutrient discharges from the land.
Chapter 4 develops a broad picture of river catchment drivers and pressures
and their impacts on coastal change. Where available, information on related gov-
ernance response is provided. By looking at the river catchment-coastal sea con-
tinuum as a single system, the authors address individual catchment assessments
and extrapolate information to regional or continental scales. Coastal change is-
sues and related drivers are ranked, based on mostly qualitative information, in-
cluding the identification of critical loads and thresholds for system functioning
or geomorphologic stability. The regional difference in the relative role played by
specific drivers in imposing coastal change, such as damming, intense agricultural,
land use and urbanisation, are highlighted and expected trends are identified.
Chapter 5 provides a synthesis of major scientific findings determined in the
first four chapters. It addresses the “So What?” relevance question by considering
the ramifications of the findings for policy- and decision-makers involved in
governance and management of the coastal zone. In so doing, the authors provide
a glimpse of the remaining challenges and future directions for the next decade of
LOICZ activities and the wider coastal community.
Text boxes have been used throughout the book to give both details on method-
ologies and examples of case studies which are referred to in the text. The Appen-
dix includes a list of key LOICZ publications and abbreviations to assist the reader.
The LOICZ project is continuing into a second phase within IGBP, building on
the findings and gaps identified here and responding to a new priority of issues
that have emerged from discussions engaging the global scientific community and
institutions. The new project has shifted in focus towards highlighting the societal
and environmental management dimensions of coastal material fluxes (LOICZ II
Science Plan and Implementation Strategy; http://www.loicz.org). LOICZ is ex-
pected to become the major contributor of interdisciplinary coastal science to the
second stage of the IGBP and the International Human Dimensions Programme
(IHDP), and to the Earth System Science Partnership of IGBP, IHDP, WCRP and
DIVERSITAS.

Han Lindeboom

Chair, LOICZ Scientific Steering Committee 1997–2003

 Preface IX

References

Holligan PM, de Boois H (eds) (1993) Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) – science
plan. IGBP global change report. International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Stockholm, No. 25
Meybeck M, Vogler J (2004) Bridging gaps between conventional views on river coast systems In:
River/Coast integration in European regional seas, Part 1: improving basin coast integration,
EuroCat work package 5.3. European catchments, catchment changes and their impact on the
coast, EuroCat, Final Report. European Commission, DG Research, 5th Framework Programme,
Contr. No. EVK1-CT-2000-00044), pp 28–48
Pernetta JC, Milliman JD (1995) Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone – implementation plan.
IGBP global change report. International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Stockholm, No. 33
Steffen W, Sanderson A, Tyson P, Jager J, Matson P, Moore III B, Oldfield F, Richardson K, Schellnhuber
H-J, Turner II BL, Wasson R (2004) Global change and the Earth system: a planet under pressure.
IGBP global change series. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg
Acknowledgements

The government of the Netherlands (Ministry of Education, Culture and Science,

OcW NWO; Ministry for Transport and Public Works, RIKZ) has generously pro-
vided funding support for the LOICZ International Project Office over the last
10 years; the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (KNIOZ) has provided
offices, scientific and administrative support for the IPO. Without this funding the
international Scientific Steering Committee and the vital network of collaborating
scientists could not have functioned. Acknowledgment is made to the many inter-
national and national organisations and agencies that have funded and supported
the LOICZ enterprise described in this book, in particular: UNESCO’s Intergovern-
mental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the European Union (EU),
Netherlands Foundation for the Advancement of Tropical Research (WOTRO), Royal
Dutch Academy of Science (KNAW), Scientific Committee for Oceanic Research
(SCOR), United States National Science Foundation (NSF), Asia-Pacific Network
for Global Change (APN), Global Change System for Analysis Research and Train-
ing (START), Inter-America Institute for Global Change (IAI), and International
Ocean Institute (IOI).
The preparation of this book has involved many people beyond the authors and
editors in keeping with the networked and collaborative approach engendered
within the LOICZ project. In particular, the work has benefited from the skilled
services of Hester Whyte (LOICZ IPO) and Nelleke Krijgsman (KNIOZ) in the man-
agement and completion of the manuscript and associated graphics.
Valuable suggestions were contributed to drafts of the chapters by a panel of re-
viewers, including: Elena Andreeva, Franciscus Colijn, William Dennison, Goetz
Floeser, Anthony T. Forbes, Alison Gilbert, Isao Koike, Felino Lansigan, Michel Mey-
beck, Alice Newton, Jozef Pacyna, John Parslow, Nancy N. Rabelais, Juan D. Restrepo,
Eva Roth.

Permissions

Every effort has been made to trace and acknowledge copyright holders. Should any
infringements have occurred, apologies are tendered and omissions will be recti-
fied in the event of a reprint of the book.
Contents

1 The Coastal Zone – a Domain of Global Interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 What is the Coastal Zone? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.3 System and Human Attributes of the Coastal Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.3.1 Coastal Ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.3.2 Variability in Coastal Ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.4 Changes to the Coastal Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.4.1 Pressures on the Coastal Zone from Natural Forcing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
1.4.2 Pressures on the Coastal Zone from Human Forcing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
1.4.3 Economics and Coastal Zone Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
1.5 Measuring Change and Status of the Coastal Zone at the Global Scale –
LOICZ Approaches and Tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
1.5.1 Biogeochemical Fluxes of C, N and P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
1.5.2 Typology Approach to Scaling and Globalisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
1.5.3 Socio-economic Evaluations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
1.5.4 River Basins – Material Fluxes and Human Pressures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
1.5.5 Key Thematic Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
1.6 Responses to Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

2 Dynamics of the Coastal Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.2 Impacts of Local, Regional and Global Sea-level Fluctuations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
2.2.1 Processes and Mechanisms: Coastal Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
2.2.2 Evolving Morphology and Boundary Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
2.2.3 Coastal Storms and Coastal Protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
2.3 Changes in the Flux of Water and Sediment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
2.3.1 Processes and Mechanisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
2.3.2 Sediment Flux to the Coast: Climate versus Humans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
2.4 Estuarine Interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
2.5 Groundwater Inputs to the Coastal Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
2.5.1 A New Understanding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
2.5.2 Advective Porewater Exchange . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
2.5.3 Magnitude of Submarine Groundwater Discharge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
2.5.4 Biogeochemical Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
2.6 Influence of Human Activities on Material Fluxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
2.6.1 The Role of Dams and Other Land Transformations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
2.6.2 Ecosystem Health and Diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
2.6.3 The Vitality of Coastal Wetlands, Mangroves and Reefs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
2.6.4 Sediment Dispersion and Grain Size Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
2.7 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
2.7.1 Impacts of Local, Regional and Global Sea-level Fluctuations . . . . . . . 83
2.7.2 Sediment Flux to the Coast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
XIV Contents

2.7.3 Dynamics at the Estuarine Interface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

2.7.4 Groundwater Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
2.7.5 The Human Dynamic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

3 C, N, P Fluxes in the Coastal Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
3.1.1 The Coastal Zone and Fluxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
3.1.2 Elemental Cycles and Fluxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
3.2 Estimates of C, N and P Fluxes in the Coastal Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
3.2.1 Current Information Availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
3.2.2 Fluxes and Variability of Fluxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
3.2.3 Non-conservative Fluxes: Their Distributions, Relationships to
Other Variables and Biogeochemical Interpretation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
3.3 Classification of Coastal Fluxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
3.3.1 Budget Sites and Coastal Areas: Sizes, Scales and Representation 117
3.3.2 Land versus Ocean Dominance of Biogeochemical Processes:
Dynamic Factors in Coastal Classification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
3.3.3 Natural and Anthropogenic Factors: Pristine to Highly Altered . . 121
3.3.4 Budget Sites as Representatives of the Global System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
3.3.5 Typology for Flux Extrapolation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
3.3.6 Prospects for Future Fluxes and Their Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
3.4 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
3.4.1 Biogeochemical Systems and Nutrient Loads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
3.4.2 Scale, Resolution and Generalisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
3.4.3 Infrastructure and Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
3.5 Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
3.5.1 Concepts and Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141

4 The Catchment to Coast Continuum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145

4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
4.1.1 The LOICZ-Basins Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
4.2 South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
4.2.1 Overview of South American River Catchment-Coastal Zone
Systems – Geography and Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
4.2.2 Assessment of Land-based Drivers, Pressures and Coastal Impacts . . 152
4.2.3 State Changes, Impacts and Future Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
4.2.4 Conclusions – South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
4.3 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
4.3.1 Overview of African River Catchment-Coastal Zone Systems –
Geography and Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
4.3.2 Assessment of Land-based Drivers, Pressures and Coastal Impacts . . 159
4.3.3 State Changes, Impacts and Future Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
4.3.4 Conclusions – Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
4.4 East Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
4.4.1 Overview of East Asian River Catchment-Coastal Zone Systems –
Geography and Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
4.4.2 Assessment of Land-based Drivers, Pressures and Coastal Impacts . . 168
4.4.3 State Changes, Impacts and Future Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
4.4.4 Conclusions – East Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
4.5 Russian Arctic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
4.5.1 Overview of Russian Arctic River Catchment-Coastal Zone
Systems – Geography and Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
4.5.2 Assessment of Land-based Drivers, Pressures and Coastal Impacts . . 175
 Contents XV

4.5.3 State Changes, Impacts and Future Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178

4.5.4 Conclusions – Russian Arctic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
4.6 Europe – Catchment-Coast Interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
4.6.1 Overview of the European Coastal Zone/Catchment Systems . . . . . . 179
4.6.2 Assessment of Land-based Drivers, Pressures and Coastal Impacts . . 179
4.6.3 Conclusions – Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
4.7 Towards Coupled Coastal and River Catchment Management:
DPSIR Application into Scenarios for Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
4.7.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
4.7.2 Scenarios and Coastal Futures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
4.7.3 Application of Scenarios: an Example for Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
4.8 Summary and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
4.8.1 Catchments and Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
4.8.2 Information Gaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198

5 Synthesis of Main Findings and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201

5.1 Global Change and Sustainable Use of Earth’s Coastal Zones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
5.2 Progress in Meeting IGBP-LOICZ Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
5.3 Key Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
5.3.1 The Coastal Domain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
5.3.2 River Basins: Assessment of Human-induced Land-based
Drivers and Pressures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
5.3.3 Material Fluxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
5.3.4 Biogeochemical Budgets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
5.4 Now and into the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
5.4.1 River Basin Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
5.4.2 Material Fluxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
5.4.3 Biogeochemical Budgets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
5.5 The LOICZ Contribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
5.6 Implications for Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
5.7 The Future of LOICZ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
5.7.1 The Future Challenges for LOICZ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
5.7.2 The Potential for LOICZ to Contribute to Future Coastal
Management Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217

Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
A.1 LOICZ Reports and Studies and Key Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
A.2 Acronyms and Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
Authors and Contributors

Elena N. Andreeva Victor F. Camacho-Ibar

Laboratory of Arctic Studies Instituto de Investigaciones Oceanológicas
Institute for System Analysis Universidad Autónoma de Baja California
Russian Academy of Sciences Ensenada, Mexico
9 Prospect 60-let Octyabria PO Box 189003, Coronado 92178-9003, USA
117312 Moscow, Russia [email protected]
[email protected]
Janet W. Campbell
Russell K. Arthurton
Oceans Processes Analysis Group, ISEOS
Coastal Geoscience Consultant University of New Hampshire, Durham NH, USA
Grimston, Leics, LE14 3BY, United Kingdom [email protected]
[email protected]
Chen-Tung Arthur Chen
Dan Baird
Institute of Marine Geology and Chemistry
Zoology Department National Sun Yat-sen University
University of Port Elizabeth Kaohsiung, Taiwan
PO Box 1600, Port Elizabeth, Republic of South Africa [email protected]
[email protected]
Lee Cooper
Horst Behrendt
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Forschungsverbund Berlin University of Tennessee
Institut fur Gewasserökologie und Binnenfischerei Knoxville, TN 37932, USA
Müggelseedamm 310 [email protected]
12587 Berlin, Germany
[email protected] Robert Costanza
Henry Bokuniewicz Gund Institute of Ecological Economics
The University of Vermont
Marine Sciences Research Center 590 Main Street, Burlington VT 05405-1708, USA
Stony Brook University [email protected]
Stony Brook, NY 11794-5000, USA
[email protected] Christopher J. Crossland
Robert W. Buddemeier Centre of Marine Studies
The University of Queensland
Kansas Geological Survey St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia and
University of Kansas Institute for Health, Sustainability and Regional Engagement
1930 Constant Ave, University of the Sunshine Coast
Lawrence, Kansas 66047, USA Maroochydore DC, Queensland 4558, Australia
[email protected] [email protected]

Peter R. Burbridge Laura T. David

The Orchard, House of Ross Marine Science Institute
Comrie, Perthshire PH6 2JS University of the Philippines
United Kingdom Diliman, Quezon City 1101, The Philippines
[email protected] [email protected]

William C. Burnett William C. Dennison

Department of Oceanography Centre for Environmental Science
Florida State University University of Maryland
Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA PO Box 775, Cambridge, MD 21613, USA
[email protected] [email protected]
XVIII Authors and Contributors

Jean-Paul Ducrotoy Bjorn Kjerfve

GEMEL Marine Science Program
Universite de Picardie Jules Verne University of South Carolina
115 quai Jeanne d’Arc, 80230 Columbia, South Carolina 29208 USA
Saint Valery sur Somme, France [email protected]
[email protected]
Joannie A. Kleypas
Kenneth Dunton
Environmental & Societal Impacts Group
Marine Science Institute Boulder, Colorado 80307-3000, USA
The University of Texas at Austin [email protected]
Port Aransas, TX 78373, USA
[email protected] Hartwig H. Kremer
Vilma D. Dupra Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH
LOICZ IPO (International Project Office)
Marine Science Institute Max Planck Strasse 1
University of the Philippines 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
Diliman, Quezon City 1101, The Philippines [email protected], www.loicz.org
[email protected]
Luiz Drude de Lacerda
Jürgen Gandrass
Instituto de Ciencias do Mar
GKSS-Research Centre Universidade Federal do Ceara
Institute for Coastal Research/ Fortaleza, 60125-120, Ceara, Brazil
Physical and Chemical Analysis [email protected]
Max-Planck-Straße
D-21502 Geesthacht, Germany Laure Ledoux
[email protected]
CSERGE, University of East Anglia
Shu Gao Norwich, Norfolk NR4 &TJ, United Kingdom
[email protected]
Department of Geo-Ocean Sciences
Nanjing University Martin Le Tissier
Nanjing, China
[email protected] LOICZ International Project Office
Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Vjacheslav V. Gordeev PO Box 59, NL-1790 AB Den Burg
Texel, The Netherlands
PP Shirshov Institute for Oceanology [email protected]
Russian Academy of Sciences
Nakchimovskyprospect 36 Han Lindeboom
117997 Moscow, Russia
[email protected] Alterra
Postbus 167, 1790AD Den Burg,
Vivien Gornitz Texel, The Netherlands
[email protected]
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and
Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research Janet I. Marshall Crossland
New York, NY, USA
[email protected] 1499 David Low Way
Yaroomba, Queensland 4573, Australia
Nick Harvey [email protected]

Department of Geographical and Environmental Studies Bruce A. Maxwell

University of Adelaide
South Australia 5005, Australia Department of Engineering
[email protected] Swarthmore College
500 College Ave, Swarthmore, PA 19081, USA
Patrick P. Hesp [email protected]

Department of Geography and Anthropology Casey J. McLaughlin

Louisiana State University
Baton Rouge LA 70803-4105, USA 2509 East 27th Terrace
[email protected] Lawrence, KS, 66046, USA
[email protected]
G. H. Hong
Nicole Morcom
Marine Biogeochemistry and Isotopes
Korean Ocean Research & Development Institute Department of Geographical & Environmental Studies
Seoul 425-600, Republic of Korea University of Adelaide
[email protected] South Australia 5055, Australia
 Authors and Contributors XIX

Eric Odada Stephen V. Smith

Pan-African START Secretariat Departmento de Ecologia
Department of Geology CICESE
University of Nairobi Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico CP 22800
Nairobi, Kenya PO Box 434844 San Diego, CA 92143-4844 USA
[email protected] [email protected]

Jozef Pacyna Maria Snoussi

Norwegian Institute for Air Research Department of Earth Sciences
NO-2027 Kjeller, Norway University Mohamed V
[email protected] Rabat, Morocco
[email protected]
Gerardo M. E. Perillo
Dennis P. Swaney
Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía
CC 804, 8000 Bahía Blanca, Argentina Boyce Thompson Institute
[email protected] Cornell University
Ithaca, NY, USA
Nancy N. Rabalais [email protected]

Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, James P. M. Syvitski

Chauvin, Loiusiana, USA
[email protected] Environmental Computation and Imaging Group, INSTAAR
University of Colorado, Boulder CO, 80309-0450, USA
Yoshiki Saito [email protected]

MRE, Geological Survey of Japan R. Kerry Turner

AIST. Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8567, Japan
[email protected] CSERGE, University of East Anglia
Norwich, Norfolk NR4 &TJ, United Kingdom
Joe Salisbury [email protected]

Oceans Processes Analysis Group, ISEOS William J. Wiebe

University of New Hampshire
Durham NH, USA Department of Marine Science, University of Georgia
[email protected] Athens, Georgia 30602, USA
[email protected]
Maria Lourdes San Diego-McGlone
Eric Wolanski
Marine Science Institute
University of the Philippines Australian Institute of Marine Science
Diliman, Quezon City 1101, The Philippines P.M.B. No. 3, Townsville M.C. 4810, Australia
[email protected] [email protected]

P. T. Sandhei Fredrik Wulff

Kansas Geological Survey, University of Kansas Department of Systems Ecology, University of Stockholm
1930 Constant Ave, Lawrence, Kansas 66047, USA S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
[email protected]
Wim Salomons
Wyss W.-S. Yim
VU-IVM
Kromme Elleborg 21, 9751 RB Haren Department of Earth Sciences, The University of Hong Kong
Groningen, The Netherlands Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong SAR, China
[email protected] [email protected]