Satellite Project

Blake Hall, Andy Weidemann

Mrs. Cybulski

Statistics 11B
 Hall-Weidemann 1

Introduction​:

Satellites, a relatively new technology, were created by Russia at the start of the Cold

War. The launch of the first satellite sparked a space war that led to the rapid advancements in

orbital technology. Satellites are now a given for GPS systems, weather predictions and analysis,

telephones, and even WiFi. Everyone living in the modern world will be subject to the power of

a satellite now and then. Most people would figure that satellites do not experience gravity as

they orbit in space, but everything with mass has gravity, and satellites are no different.

Considering satellites orbit the earth, it is absolute that the satellites are affected by earth's

gravity pulling them inwards as their own speed pushes them outwards. This begs the question of

what is the relationship of this gravity and the distance of the satellite from earth? This is the

question we strive to answer.

Background Information​:

Figure 1. International Space Station

The international space station, shown above in figure 1, is a low orbiting habitable

satellite launched in 1998 and is still inhabited. A total of sixteen countries now use the ISS for

conducting research in the environment of space. It holds 6 crew members and is the largest
 Hall-Weidemann 2

human made object in low orbit.

MIR was a Russian space station launched in 1986 and retired in 1996. It held a crew of

three and was in orbit for over 15 years. It holds the record for the longest human presence in a

satellite at 3,644 days. It served a similar purpose to that of the ISS as it was an orbiting lab for

research in space.

The Hubble Telescope is a key research tool used for astronomy, and is currently elapsed

in service for 27 years since 1990. Hubble was built by NASA and has been used to record some

of the most detailed pictures of space of all time. It is the first space based telescope and has

made more than 1.3 million observations since 1990.

Skylab was launched in 1973 and was the United State’s only space station till it fell back

into Earth’s orbit in 1979. It had a three person crew and was sent up for three missions before

being destroyed in reentry.

Sputnik was the first satellite ever launched in 1957. It used a weak radio signal, so weak,

in fact, that America picked it up and it started part of the cold war. It was burned up in the

atmosphere in 1958.

Salyut 2 was the first of three Soviet military satellites launched in 1973. It was launched

using a small three-staged rocket and reentered the atmosphere that same year.

Salyut 5 was the last of three Soviet military satellites. It was equipped with a camera that

allowed the crew to take pictures and look at the earth. It had two manned missions visit it with

two people each, a very successful satellite. It still flies today.

 Hall-Weidemann 3

Figure 2. Terra Satellite

Terra, shown in figure 2, above, is a NASA research satellite used to monitor the spread

of pollution in 1999 and is still doing so. It was named via a high school contest. The satellite

was also taken control of by hackers who did not do anything using their command access.

Aqua is another NASA research satellite studying the water cycle in 2002. Because of a

loss of the solid state recorder, it can now only hold the data for two orbits of the earth, however,

it still flies today.

Aura was yet another NASA research satellite studying the ozone layer and climate of the

earth in 2004. It had the same problem as the aqua with the solid state recorder, it is no longer

flying as of 2016.

RapidEye is part of a German constellation of five satellites used for studying agriculture

and forestry. RapidEye was acquired by planet labs in 2015. It was launched in 2008.

Cartosat-2F is an observational satellite used for cartography in India. It can produce

imagery at about 1$ per kilometer. It was launched in 2007 and still observes India today.

Galaxy 15 is a telecommunication satellite produced by the United States, launched in

2005. In 2010, it failed and lost orbit, drifting thousands of miles off course.
 Hall-Weidemann 4

Data and Analysis​:

Table 1.
Chart of Calculations for the Percentage of ‘g’

Table 1, above, shows all of the data in the process of calculation the percentage of ‘g’ on

the satellites in comparison to the earth's gravity of 9.8 meters pers second. The Moon and

Galaxy 15 will not be included in the data until later and is separated from the data used by a

blue line. The average acceleration due to gravity was found using the formula shown below.

Figure 3. Equations and Sample Calculation for Finding Percent of Gravity

The percent of gravity for the ISS was found using the equations above. In the first

formula, the force of gravity between the earth and spacecraft is found. The radius was
 Hall-Weidemann 5

multiplied by 1000 to convert the kilometers to meters as required in the equation. G stands for

the constant 6.674*10​-11​ and is multiplied by the mass of the Earth and the mass of the spacecraft

before being divided by radius of the orbit from the center of the earth squared. The acceleration

due to gravity is then found by dividing this force by the mass of the spacecraft. This

acceleration is then divided by the acceleration of Earth’s gravity and multiplied by one hundred

to find the percentage of gravity.

Figure 4. Graph of Accelerations Due to Gravity at Different Distances.

The figure above shows the scatter plot of the acceleration due to gravity acting on the

satellites a certain distance (km) away from the center of the earth. The data shows a downward

slope that seems consistent.

 Hall-Weidemann 6

Least Squares Regression Line​:

FIgure 5. Equation and Calculation of the Correlation Coefficient.

The calculation of the correlation coefficient, or ​r​, is shown above in figure 3. To find

this value, the mean ​x​-value is subtracted a particular ​x​-value and then divided by the standard

deviation of all the ​x​-values. This number is then multiplied by the mean ​y​-value subtracted from

a particular ​y​-value divided by the standard deviation of all the ​y-​ values. This process is repeated

for every data point, and the summation of these values are found and multiplied by one over the

sample size minus one. The correlation coefficient of -0.9997 means that the linear model fits

this data. It also means that the data follows a strong negative path.

Figure 6. Formula for Calculating r​2​.

The formula above shows the formula for the correlation coefficient squared. This value

was found by dividing the sum of the squares about the mean, minus the sum of the squares

measured from the LSRL. This value was found to be 0.9994, which means that 99.94% of the

variation in ​y​ is explained by the least square regression line.

 Hall-Weidemann 7

Figure 7. Least Square Regression Line.

The figure above shows the least square regression line for the data. It was found to be

ŷ = 25.5743 - 0.00249x.​ This equation was found by using the process shown below.

Figure 8. Equation and Calculation for LSRL.

In the figure above, the slope of the equation was found to be -0.00249. This means that

the acceleration due to gravity drops 0.00249m/s​2​ for every kilometer traveled away from the

Earth. The value for the variable ​ a ​was found to be 25.5743.

 Hall-Weidemann 8

Linear Regression t Test​:

Figure 9. Linear Regression t Test.

The figure above shows the result of linear regression t test on the TI-Nspire. The p-value

was found to be almost zero. The ​t​-value was found using the equation below.

Figure 10. Equation and Calculation for the t Score.

The ​t​-value was found by dividing the slope from the Least Square Regression Line by

the standard error of the slope. The standard error of the slope of the Least Square Regression

Line was found by dividing the standard deviation by the square root of the summation of the

distances minus the mean distance. The ​t​-value was found to be -129.80.
 Hall-Weidemann 9

Hypothesis​:

H0 : β = 0

Ha : β < 0

The null hypothesis states that as the distance the satellite is from earth increases, the

acceleration due to gravity does not change. The alternative hypothesis states that the slope of the

least square regression line is less than zero. This means that as the distance the satellite is from

Earth increases, the acceleration due to gravity experienced by the satellite decreases.

Assumptions​:

Figure 11. Residual Plot of Least Squares Regression Line

1: For this Linear Regression t-Test to be performed, a few assumptions must be

discussed. First, the data must show a linear pattern. The data appears to be linear in the

scatterplot shown in figure 1. Figure 11, above shows the residual plot for the least squares

regression line. The residuals are all very close together, within .02 from the regression line.

However, the residuals show a parabolic shape. This shape suggests that a linear model is not the

best regression fit for the data. Despite this, the Linear Regression t Test will be carried out. Both

the correlations coefficient and the r​2​ value are both near 1, which shows the linear model still

fits the data well.

2: The second condition is that the data must be produced from a random sample and
 Hall-Weidemann 10

each observation must be independent. The satellites chosen are from varying heights and are all

independent from each other. To verify that the data is normal, ten times the sample size must be

larger than one tenth of the population. To test this, the number of satellites tested will be

multiplied by ten and compared to one tenth of the rough number of satellites launched into

orbit. This assumption is met because 10(12) < .10(8,000).

Figure 12. Linear Regression Residual Histogram.

3: The third assumption is that the residual are normal and show no digression from

normality when graphed on a histogram. Figure 12, above, shows a somewhat skewed,

non-normal pattern that could be a cause of concern for this assumption.

4: The next assumption is that the vertical scatter above and below the line of residuals is

even. As shown in Figure 10, there are more points below the line than above, this could be a

problem, especially considering the parabolic shape of the residuals.

5: The fifth assumption states that the variables a and b are unbiased estimators of α and

β . These variables were found using the Least Square Regression Model, or the line of best fit.
 Hall-Weidemann 11

The variables are the best estimators of α and β as they are included in the Least Square

Regression Line formula and are not biased.

6: The final assumption is that the satellites chosen have come from a simple random

sample. These satellites are independent from each other and selected out of a large group. It is

safe to say that the satellites were chosen in a safe way.

Three Part Conclusion​:

At an alpha level of 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis. This is strong evidence that a

satellite’s distance from Earth affects the acceleration of gravity on the satellite. As the distance

increases, the acceleration due to gravity decreases. The ​p-​ value was found to be very close 0.

This means that there is almost a zero percent chance that this relationship between distance and

acceleration due to gravity happens by chance alone if the null hypothesis is true.

Confidence Interval​:

b ​± ​t x (SEb) -0.00249 ​± ​2.228​ x (1.95x10​-5​)

-0.00253 < b > -0.00245

Shown above is calculation for the 95% confidence level. The interval was found to be

between -0.00253 and -0.00245. We are 95% confident that the true mean decrease in

acceleration due to gravity per every kilometer traveled is between 0.00253m/s​2​ and

0.00245m/s​2​.
 Hall-Weidemann 12

Moon and Galaxy 15 Analysis​:

Figure 13. Power Regression Including the Moon and Galaxy-15

Figure 13 above shows the a power regression with the Moon and Galaxy 15 added. The

Moon and Galaxy 15 are much further from the Earth than the other satellites, so they experience

much less gravitational pull from the earth. The data with these points added follow a power

regression.

Figure 13. Correlation Coefficient and r​2​ for the Power Regression

The ​r​ and ​r2​ ​ value for the power regression model is shown above in figure 13. Both

values are larger than the values in the linear regression model. This supports that this model is
 Hall-Weidemann 13

the best fit for the data.

Figure 14. Residual Plot of Power Regression

Figure 14 shows the new plot of residuals, after the moon and galaxy 15 were added, with

the power regression. The power regression seems to be a far better fit than as the residuals are

not parabolic shaped as they were with the linear. The residuals seem to pile up as the original

satellites are so close together, however, the residual numbers of all the points are so small they

are negligible. The lack of a shape in the plot shows that the power regression is ideal for finding

the true equation of gravitational acceleration and distance.

 Hall-Weidemann 14

Conclusion​:

Satellites are vital to the technology of today’s society. It is important when launching

and adjusting satellites to understand the force of Earth’s gravity upon them to understand their

orbital path. In the beginning of statistical testing, it was believed that the relationship between

the satellites distance from earth and acceleration of gravity had an inverse linear relationship.

The ​r-​ value of -0.9997 is incredibly high and shows a strong fit with the linear regression.

However, the residual plot of the linear regression showed a clear parabola. Once the points of

the moon and galaxy 15 were added, with distances further from the earth than the other

satellites, it was clear that the linear relationship did not make sense in the long run. It was found

that the true relationship between the satellites distance and acceleration is a power regression.

The ​r-​ value of this power regression is -0.9999, this ​r-​ value is even stronger than the linear

regression. With a ​r​-value this close to 1, it is safe to say that it is a near perfect fit for the overall

relationship.

Figure 15. Parent Function for Inverse Squared or Power Model.

This relationship can be explained using the formula for force of gravity shown in figure

3 on page 5. This equation shows ​r2​ ​, ​or the distance from the satellite to the center of the Earth

squared, on the bottom. This means that as the that distance increases, the force of gravity

exponentially decreases. The formula for force of gravity is a power function similar to the

parent power function shown in figure 15, above. This is why the data follows the power model

as the distance increases.

 Hall-Weidemann 15

This equation for the relationship between the distance and acceleration may be used to

find the near exact acceleration for any satellite’s gravity. This information is useful to scientists

who need the orbital path of satellites so as not to run into other satellites or spacial debris. Using

this equation, it can be calculated that the ISS has 8.697 m/s/s of acceleration due to gravity, or

about 88% of earth's gravity. Even though the ISS experiences this large amount of gravity,

astronauts still float. The reason for this is not because of the “lack” of gravity in space, it is

because of the incredible 28-thousand kilometer-per-hour speed of the ISS. This speed is because

of the slingshot like orbit the ISS is in, making it perpetually fall. As the satellites are being

pulled in, they are also being pushed out. This perpetual fall is what makes astronauts weightless,

just like at the top of a roller coaster or a plane in a nosedive.

 Hall-Weidemann 16

Citations

Howell, Elizabeth. “What is a Satellite?” ​Space.com,​

www.space.com/24839-satellites.html

“Satellites.” ​Satellites | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,​

www.noaa.gov/satellites

“Galaxy 15.” ​Gunter's Space Page - Information on spaceflight, launch vehicles and satellites​,

space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/galaxy-15.htm

“Terra.” ​Terra - eoPortal Directory - Satellite Missions,​

earth.esa.int/web/eoportal/satellite-missions/t/terra

“Aura.” ​Aura - eoPortal Directory - Satellite Missions,​

directory.eoportal.org/web/eoportal/satellite-missions/a/aura

“Why Are Astronauts Weightless in Space?” ​Universe Today,​ 7 Jan. 2016,

www.universetoday.com/95308/why-are-astronauts-weightless-in-space/

NASA,​ NASA, history.nasa.gov/SP-4225/mir/mir.htm

Garner, Rob. “About the Hubble Space Telescope.” ​NASA​, NASA, 27 Jan. 2015,

www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hubble/story/index.html