Growing Nuclearization of the Indian Ocean and its Implications For South Asian Stability

Growing Nuclearization of the Indian Ocean and its

Implications For South Asian Stability

Muhammad Sarmad Zia

Introduction
The paradigm of security in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is
going through a major transformation. It is a beginning of a new
and unprecedented era in this part of the world. The geo-
political and economic orientation is shifting from Atlantic to
Indian and Pacific Oceans as major powers such as China and
United States seek to exert their influence in the region. China’s
major trade and hydrocarbon shipments pass through the
Indian Ocean which makes it an important area for China to
ensure security of trade. The littoral states of Indian Ocean are
also vying to push their weight. The enormous volume of global
maritime trade that passes through it also signifies its
increasing importance in the world now. A report from 2015
shows that seventy percent of world’s trade by volume,
amounting to 777 Billion dollars, passes through the Indian
Ocean.1 With the advent of naval powers with nuclear
submarines and nuclear tipped ballistic and cruise missiles, the
contours of strategic security are evolving in the IOR.
Whilst the United States has kept its nuclear presence in the
Indian Ocean Region since the early sixties, the dimensions of
nuclearization in the ocean are now evolving as new players are
entering the competition. China is also a comparative new
entrant in the region, challenging the US’ influence. India has
also been actively pursuing a credible nuclear triad. In this bid,

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 Growing Nuclearization of the Indian Ocean and its Implications For South Asian Stability

it has begun a new competition in the IOR worrying Pakistan for

its own security vis-à-vis India. As the nuclear players in Indian
Ocean increase, the issues related to security, balance of power
and naval dominance are bound to multiply. The region will
witness a shift to a more volatile environment if an unchecked
vertical proliferation continues to take place. While each state
has the right to address its security apprehensions, the growing
nuclearization could create problems not only for the littoral
states of the Indian Ocean but also the global security.
Therefore, an analysis of the growing nuclear competition in the
ocean is important to understand the dynamics of strategic
stability pertaining to the nuclear states in the region. It will also
tackle the interaction of littoral states with major competing
powers. As China and the US are becoming more involved in this
part of the world, it is equally important to analyze proliferation
of their nuclear infrastructure into the Indian Ocean and their
long term goals in the region.

Technological advancements
Of the two nuclear weapon states that are actually located in the
Indian Ocean region i.e. Pakistan and India have added a nuclear
arsenal in these waters. Their qualitative and quantitative
additions to the nuclear infrastructure in have made possible
the development of precise and longer-range missiles, multiple
independent entry vehicles also known as MIRVs, and delivery
systems. The NSG waiver afforded to India with the US support,
which includes access to nuclear technology, and its recent
entry into MTCR which has facilitated its access to missile
technology at par with the other nuclear weapon states, India
has an advantage over Pakistan. While Pakistan has received
some technological support from China and possibly South

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 Growing Nuclearization of the Indian Ocean and its Implications For South Asian Stability

Korea, it largely had to work with its indigenous pool of

resources and technology to develop and upgrade its missiles
and delivery systems.

Role of US in the IOR

It was United States that became a precursor of nuclearization
of the Indian Ocean. Soon after the Second World War, the
United States, with its ample resources, technological prowess,
and economic means, started spreading its military wings all
over the planet, including the IOR. However, the international
focus remained on the Atlantic Ocean during the nearly five
decades of Cold War until the disintegration of Soviet Union. The
US’ presence in the region was originally motivated to counter
what it believed to be the expansionist inclination of the Soviet
Union, its alliances in the middle-east, and the role of the
universal custodian that it had adopted post 1945.
The fifth fleet of the US navy was reactivated in 19952 and has
remained active in the IOR since then. Its importance has
increased as the volume of trade, the oil and gas production has
multiplied and besides the factors like the growing competition
between India and China, and the nuclear rivalry between
Pakistan and India. The Indian Ocean functioned as a key space
during the Iraq war during the six years between 2003 to 2009.
Furthermore, the logistical and tactical support to the coalition
forces led by the United States were routed through the Indian
Ocean to support the war in Afghanistan. The US Pivot to Asia
policy, first introduced by President Obama underlined the
growing importance of the region with respect to economy and
trade.3 China also remained an important factor in US pivot to
Asia calculus owing to its economic growth and possibly due to

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 Growing Nuclearization of the Indian Ocean and its Implications For South Asian Stability

the occasional sparring with its neighbors such as Japan and the
Philippines.

Increasing presence of China in the IOR

With an increased role of the United States in the IOR, China has
also been seeking to develop a security niche in the region.
Moreover, India is beefing up its navy and seeking out an
enhanced role in the Indian Ocean. Therefore, the docking of
Chinese submarines at Colombo and Karachi harbors 4 can be
perceived as China signaling its naval presence in the region.
The Chinese navy has been boosting its overall naval presence,
and has been instrumental in warding off the Somali pirates to
a large extent. China’s economic strength figures in its security
calculus, the strategic implications of not securing the IOR.
Therefore, it has been actively conducting not only anti-piracy
patrolling but also has been creating space for its military
vessels to maneuver in the Indian Ocean. For China, its security
lies in its robust naval presence, and control, and understanding
of the dynamics of the IOR. It has been testing its SONAR
systems, collecting bathymetric and hydrological data.5 The
collection of bathymetric data could essentially be useful to
provide better cover for its nuclear powered submarines since
a nuclear powered submarine can stay submerged for longer
periods than diesel powered submarines. With an advancement
in ‘quieting technologies’6 which subdue a submarine’s noise,
thermal signal and water deflection, the submarines can go
undetected for long periods of time. With the help of such data
along with a hydrological survey that it is conducting in the IOR,
China is readying itself for the future dynamics of naval
competition in the IOR.

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 Growing Nuclearization of the Indian Ocean and its Implications For South Asian Stability

China duly appreciates that the choke points at the Malacca

strait can potentially be translated into a complete blockade of
Chinese ships; hence it must deter any such moves by hostile
navies. Naturally, to achieve safe and unhindered navigation of
the Indian Ocean, China is augmenting its naval power in the
region. As the Indo-US partnership strengthens, the threat
threshold for China is inching towards its lower limit. For China,
the blocking of its economic independence by blocking its
commercial activity around any of the choke points can prove to
be disastrous. In this regard, China has been building up ports
in other countries such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan
amongst others to secure its commercial activities. This
development was termed a ‘String of pearls’ by the U.S firm Booz
Allen Hamilton in 2005, wherein it posits that China will try to
expand its naval presence by building civilian maritime
infrastructure along the Indian Ocean periphery.7 While it
mentions building up civilian maritime infrastructure, it can
also provide robust support to military missions, which in turn
can be a cause of concern for the Indians.
Therefore, both India and the United States assert that the string
of pearls means that, “China is building strategic relationships
along the sea lanes from the Middle East to the South China Sea
in ways that suggest defensive and offensive positioning to
protect China’s energy interests, but also to serve broad security
objectives,”8 Therefore, China’s activities in the IOR such as
developing Gwadar port, modernizing Chittagong port, building
Colombo port amongst others are seen as a part of China
creating a chain of naval facilities in the Indian Ocean to secure
its strategic and commercial objectives. More so, reported
deployment of a Type 093 Shang-class nuclear-powered attack
submarine (SSN) and the docking of SSNs at Colombo 9 and
Karachi10 imply an intention of building up towards

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nuclearization and militarization of the IOR. However, China

vehemently denies this assertion.

India’s growing capabilities

The advent of Indian nuclear submarines – equipped with
nuclear warheads – into India’s nuclear command has
transformed the security dynamics of IOR. India refers to the
Indian Ocean as an area of its strategic influence. India’s Prime
Minister, Narendra Modi noted that, “India is at the crossroads
of the Indian Ocean.” By virtue of being the largest, most
populous and in possession of the biggest military in the region,
India considers itself to be a natural key player here.
Currently, India possesses two nuclear powered submarines,
one of which is a Ballistic Missile Submarine (SSBN). This SSBN
known as INS Arihant was commissioned into the Indian Navy
in 2016, while the SSN INS Chakra was procured from Russia in
2012 on a ten-year lease. Prior to the development of its SSBN,
India conducted a series of test firings of Dhanush-class short-
range ballistic missiles from offshore patrol vessels as a stop gap
measure.11
Of these, INS Arihant requires more focus as it represents India’s
bid to enter the prestigious club of a small number of states that
possess ballistic missile submarines. India’s aspiration to
emerge as a regional power includes a goal to assert itself as an
important and key state in the IOR. Despite its huge population,
a 7500-KM12 long coastline and aircraft carriers in service, India
has long been unable to make its mark on the IOR. As India is
becoming economically more stable, it is flexing its military
muscle in the region as well. Its goals of hegemony and
influencing the states within the IOR are largely tied with its

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ability to display military power; therefore, it is incorporating

newer and better technologies into its military systems.
For India, losing control of the ocean to China would spell a
strategic disaster as China is both militarily and strategically
stronger than India on all accounts. Therefore, India has been
taking up new ventures to secure itself.
With the inclusion of INS Arihant into India’s nuclear capable
platforms, India has been able to completely operationalize its
nuclear triad.13To attain credible deterrence, it is crucial to have
a sea based nuclear capability. A submarine is essentially the
third and most important leg of a nuclear triad. It derives its
importance from its survivability factor. A submarine is
extremely difficult to locate as it dives deep into the sea, and as
the oceans are enormous, it is difficult to target a submerged
submarine. An important feature of a nuclear-powered
submarine is its non-requirement of refueling which allows it to
stay under water virtually indefinitely.
Thus, in case an all-out war breaks out where counter-force
targets are hit and a land-based second-strike capability is
incapacitated, the responding state could always depend on a
sea based second-strike for its survivability. The state initiating
the offensive would therefore be wary of this fact and re-
evaluate its strategy. India’s Arihant comes equipped with two
types of missiles; K-4, which is an intermediate range nuclear
capable submarine launched ballistic missile with an upper
range of 3500 KM.14 It gives India the ability to target its
adversaries from almost anywhere in the North Indian Ocean.
The second one is K-15 which is a short range nuclear capable
submarine launched ballistic missile with a range of 700 KM.15
India alleges that its threat calculus, in the IOR, revolves around
China but China had completed its nuclear triad long before

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India in 1987 with the inclusion of its Type 092 Xia-class SSBN.16
Operationalizing its nuclear triad almost 20 years after China,
points to the fact that India has other than strategic reasons for
obtaining this capability. For India, it is important to embark
into the Indian Ocean and add on its nuclear component for two
reasons; first being prestige, which was essentially why Indian
acquired nuclear weapons in the first place. It would help India
become a part of a prestigious club which is open only for a
handful of countries. The prestige is important for India
domestically as well. A large proportion of Indians who live
below the poverty line, find pride in India being equated to the
rich and developed countries of the world. Second, by launching
a SSBN, India is trying to signal to the world that it has now
become a complete nuclear power and that its strategic
objectives are important for it.
India’s nuclear adventure into the Indian Ocean is a reality that
needs to be factored in by other states in the region, such as
Pakistan and China, in their threat perception. Fortification of
Indian deterrence may make India over confident of its
capabilities with regards to the deterrence equilibrium in South
Asia. Such a situation would be very destabilizing for the region
and beyond.

Pakistan’s response
Pakistan’s recent initiative of building a credible nuclear triad
came in the shape of submarine launched cruise missile or
SLCM. Pakistan took steps to safeguard its own security in the
wake of India’s ongoing efforts to augment its naval and nuclear
power. With the establishment of Naval Strategic Force
Command, in 2012, Pakistan had signaled its intent to develop
its own sea-based deterrent. Thus, in 2017, Pakistan

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 Growing Nuclearization of the Indian Ocean and its Implications For South Asian Stability

successfully tested a SLCM to be retrofitted to French-designed

Agosta 90B submarines, thereby providing the quickest way to
a second-strike capability. Currently, Pakistan does not have
any SSNs or SSBNs. With India acquiring this capability, it
became unnecessary for Pakistan to rectify these problems with
the limited means available to it. As India is a part of Missile
Technology Control Regime17 (MTCR) besides enjoying a NSG
waiver, it has had access to technology to develop its nuclear
arsenal.
Pakistan, on the other hand, with a comparatively limited
technological base, is unable to develop an indigenous nuclear
submarine. Moreover, the cost of a nuclear submarine is far
beyond Pakistan’s reach. Thus, to ensure a second-strike
capability to maintain deterrence, Pakistan chose the next best
option. It made use of its available resources and developed
Babur-3, a short-range submarine launched cruise missile with
a range of 450 KM.18This SLCM can be tipped with both
conventional and nuclear warheads. It is possible that Pakistan
has adopted an ambiguous policy in this regard. An
unconventional naval nuclear force structure and dual-use
platforms are possibly deliberate components of Pakistan’s
naval nuclear policy.
As a diesel-powered submarine does not afford the same
freedom, speed, and viability that a SSN or SSBN can, Pakistan’s
options are limited. Thus, the diesel submarine equipped with
an SLCM is Pakistan’s effort to thwart India’s mal-intentions.
While it is a step towards further nuclearization of the IOR,
Pakistan’s entry into the third leg of nuclear realm is prompted
by a ‘quadlemma’ that starts with any strategic action by the US
in the IOR. It automatically warrants reciprocation from China,
which then causes India to readjust itself, which then results in
security issues for Pakistan, hence triggering a reaction from

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Pakistan. Thus, Pakistan is essentially caught in the crosshairs

of great powers’ politics.

Impact on the strategic stability in the IOR

The increased nuclear activity in the IOR as well as the
infrastructure that is being developed is creating strategic
issues in the region with both short and long-term implications.
The Indian Ocean had long remained a nuclear friction free area
even at the height of the Cold War. The introduction of nuclear
weapons in the region would have negative ramifications.
There would arise several new problems in the region. For
instance, as the nuclear powers in the region compete against
each other, a nuclear accident could not be ruled out completely.
With the addition of more submarines in the ocean, it would be
difficult for a state to be able to differentiate between friendly
and hostile submarines operating in IOR, and more so during
war time. The United States and China have the resources to
engage in a nuclear competition in the Indian Ocean, however in
doing so they would alter the contours of recessed nuclear
deterrence that Pakistan exercises against India, adversely
affecting deterrence stability in the region.
Besides the nuclear competition, use of conventional operations
under a nuclear shadow would be disastrous since such
operations could be misperceived19 and can escalate out of
hand, resulting in a possible exchange of nuclear weapons. India
might want to assert more control over the sea to keep other
states out. This would lead to confrontation with China or vice
versa. Additionally, Pakistan, being a smaller state would use
nuclear signaling to imply its readiness to retaliate if India shifts
its conventional or nuclear posture. This is despite the fact that
Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is kept in de-mated form to avoid any

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mishaps or accidents. This would also entail massive problems

for strategic stability in the region as any state that feels
threatened could wrongly indicate its readiness, in effect
causing gratuitous fighting.
The communication systems with a central command system
would be difficult to maintain during war time, as even during
peace time, the communication channels such as Very Low
Frequency (VLF) and Acoustic Systems can be somewhat
unreliable for less technologically advanced states. On the other
hand, Extremely Low Frequency (ELF) Communication Systems
can be used to transmit messages much deeper than VLF based
systems; however, the information transmitted is very limited.
Incidentally, it gives birth to another problem pertaining to the
command system of nuclear submarines. Pakistan and India
claim that their nuclear weapons are controlled directly through
a central command authority, known as National Command
Authority (NCA) in Pakistan and Nuclear Command Authority
(NCA) in India. Both states maintain that the control of nuclear
weapons is centralized which means only the head of
government of both states, which is the prime minister, can
authorize the use of nuclear weapons. With regards to
submarines, it may not be possible and the command might
have to be delegated to strategic force commanders present in
the submarine. However, both the states assert that the control
will remain central and assertive.
The issue of de-mated or cannistrized weapons is also a matter
of concern. The idea being that in a submarine, it is physically
impossible to keep a nuclear weapon de-mated from its delivery
system owing to lack of space. This, in turn, stirs a debate on the
claims pertaining to the inadvertent use of nuclear weapons.
Conclusion

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 Growing Nuclearization of the Indian Ocean and its Implications For South Asian Stability

The Indian Ocean Region is being focused upon by the major

world powers owing to the massive economic potential it
affords to the global maritime trade. Its strategic location
enables it to be the connecting pathway for four continents of
the world i.e. Asia, Europe, Africa, and Australia. The abundance
of natural resources which include hydrocarbons as well as
seafood also adds to its significance.
The nuclear competition in the IOR is dangerous to the region’s
security. Moreover, when major powers embark upon
increasing their nuclear presence in the region, they neglect
smaller states’ security and adversely impact the balance of
power in the region. The IOR is being exposed to a similar
intrusion by major powers in the regional strategic
environment which has the risk affecting strategic stability
between the two nuclear powers of South Asia. This tug of war
between the states would create a precarious and volatile
nuclear environment in the region.
With regards to the command and control systems, the issue of
communication with submarines continues to be a security
problem. A nuclear accident could happen either through
collision if anti-submarine vehicles crash into a submarine.
Moreover, nuclear submarines pose an environmental danger in
the case a submarine meets an accident or comes under attack.
Such an eventuality may cause disaster to the marine
environment caused by radiation and spent fuel debris.
The issues involving inadvertent or unauthorized use of nuclear
weapons also requires due attention, as it can precipitate a
nuclear war between states.
Overall, the nuclearization of Indian Ocean would prove to be a
challenge for the states in the region. The nuclear states would
have to keep adjusting and readjusting their nuclear postures

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and policies to address the challenges that would arise owing to

fortifications of arsenals or modification of nuclear policies of
major powers.

Muhammad Sarmad Zia is a

Research Assistant at CISS

Endnotes

1 “Trade: Indonesia & the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA),” Indonesia
Investments, March 4, 2017, https://www.indonesia-
investments.com/news/todays-headlines/trade-indonesia-the-indian-
ocean-rim-association-iora/item7657?
2“Fifth Fleet,” Global Security, May 5, 2011,
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/navy/c5f.htm
3 Matt Schiavenza, “What Exactly Does It Mean That the U.S. Is Pivoting to
Asia?” The Atlantic, April 5, 2013,
https://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/04/what-exactly-does-
it-mean-that-the-us-is-pivoting-to-asia/274936/
4 Abhijit Singh, “Countering China's Submarine Presence in the Indian
Ocean,” The Maritime Executive, May 24, 2017, http://maritime-
executive.com/editorials/countering-chinas-submarine-presence-in-the-
indian-ocean
5 Ibid.
6Note: Modern adversary submarine quieting technology challenges
passive anti-submarine warfare sonar detection range and performance.
7Franz-Stefan Gady, “China's Navy to Send More Ships to the Indian Ocean,”
The Diplomat, January 31, 2015 thediplomat.com/2015/01/chinas-navy-to-
send-more-ships-to-the-indian-ocean/+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=pk
8“China builds up strategic sea lanes,” The Washington Times, January 7,
2015, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2005/jan/17/20050117-
115550-1929r/

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9Bhaskar Roy, Chinese Nuclear Submarine Surfaces in Colombo, Indian

Defence Review, November 22, 2014,
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/chinese-nuclear-submarine-
surfaces-in-colombo/
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/chinese-nuclear-submarine-
surfaces-in-colombo/
10Zachary Keck, “Watch Out, India: China Just Sent First-Ever Submarine to
Pakistan,” The National Interest, June 29, 2015,
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/watch-out-india-china-just-
sent-first-ever-submarine-13212
11Iskander Rehman, Murky Waters: Naval Nuclear Dynamics in the Indian
Ocean, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 9, 2015,
http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/03/09/murky-waters-naval-
nuclear-dynamics-in-indian-ocean-pub-59279
12“Centre plans economic zones along 7500-km coast, The Times of India,
January 26, 2016, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-
business/Centre-plans-economic-zones-along-7500-km-
coast/articleshow/50727555.cms
13Rajat Pandit, “Indigenous sub, Arihant, completes India's nuclear triad,”
The Economic Times, October 18, 2016,
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/54911545.cms?utm_so
urce=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/indigenous-sub-
arihant-completes-indias-nuclear-triad/articleshow/54911545.cms
14Franz-Stefan Gady, “India Successfully Tests New Ballistic Missile,” The
Diplomat, March 22, 2016, thediplomat.com/2016/03/india-successfully-
tests-new-ballistic-missile/+&cd=7&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=pk
15Michael Arthur, Data on “Sagarika (K-15, B05)” Missile Defence Advoacy
Alliance, http://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-threat-and-
proliferation/missile-proliferation/india/sagarika-k-15-b05/
16“China Submarine Capabilities: Xia Class SSBN,” NTI,
http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/china-submarine-capabilities/
17“Indiajoins elite missile control group MTCR,” BBC News, June 28, 2016,
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-36648279

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18Pakistan attains ‘second strike capability’ with test-fire of submarine-

launched cruise missile, Dawn News, January 09, 2017,
https://www.dawn.com/news/1307384
19Iskander Rehman, Murky Waters: Naval Nuclear Dynamics in the Indian
Ocean, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 9, 2015,
http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/03/09/murky-waters-naval-
nuclear-dynamics-in-indian-ocean-pub-59279

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