Four Letter Word: by Rod Farrar
Four Letter Word: by Rod Farrar
Four Letter Word: by Rod Farrar
MANAGEMENT
Creating Risk Gladiators
RISK IS NOT A
FOUR LETTER
WORD
By Rod Farrar
Table of Contents
Welcome 3
Introduction to consequence 5
Estimating Consequence 6
Describing a Risk 23
Shared Risk 46
Welcome
Thank you for downloading my 2nd eBook – “Risk is not a Four Letter
Word”. Of course, risk is a four letter word, but not in the traditional
vernacular of what constitutes a four letter word.
Of course, these are my ideas and not all of you will agree with them
but what I hope to achieve is to at least start a discussion in relation to
risk management and the conventional wisdom around its application.
The underlying message in this title is that risk is not something to
be feared by organisations – but something to be embraced. If we
do not embrace risk we cannot innovate. To quote John F Kennedy:
“There are risks and costs to a program of action. But they are far less
than the long-range risks and costs of comfortable inaction”.
I truly hope you enjoy the eBook. If you would like to raise any points
or vehemently disagree with anything I raise in the book, please do
not hesitate to leave a post on my LinkedIn page or directly to me at
[email protected]. Who knows, depending on the response to
this book, it may indeed become a trilogy - 50 Shades of Risk has a
nice ring to it.
Rod
CONSEQUENCE
IS KING
INTRODUCTION TO
CONSEQUENCE
In the risk management field we are taught that risk is a
function of Likelihood and Consequence and that we need to
identify both in order to determine the level of risk so we can
make risk informed decisions.
5
ESTIMATING CONSEQUENCE
One of the issues I have, and continue to encounter, is
organisations who tend towards the worst case when assessing
the consequence of the identified risk.
If you tend towards the worst case scenario with all of your
assessments for consequence, what you may actually do is
reduce the credibility of the risk management process and the
risk management program within your organisation. If you do
select the worst case scenario consequence for each of your
identified risks, regardless of the likelihood, you are going to
end up with a lot of risk in that top right hand corner of your
matrix as shown below.
CONSEQUENCE
ALMOST
LOW MEDIUM HIGH EXTREME EXTREME
CERTAIN
6
quite serious for which there will be long term effects. Out of
that hundred, however, it is extremely unlikely that someone will
die i.e. a severe consequence. The most plausible outcome
here, however is somewhere in the insignificant/minor region as
shown in the chart below:
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Insignificant - Minor - Moderate - Major - Severe -
Minor Injury medical attention - Injury requiring serious casualties - Death or life
No Hospitalisation no long term effects hospitalisation long-term effects threatening Injuries
7
resources and reduce the credibility of risk management in that
organisation and probably render the framework unworkable.
Another thing to consider here is the context in which the
assessment of consequence is being made. If we use the
same scenario of 100 people tripping, slipping or falling,
however, this time it is in a nursing home, the chart would be
somewhat different, because the context is different. The
residents are older, may have existing conditions that make
them more susceptible to injury .etc. In this case, when we
assess the plausibility of the consequence the chart may look
something like this:
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Insignificant - Minor - Moderate - Major - Severe -
Minor Injury medical attention - Injury requiring serious casualties - Death or life
No Hospitalisation no long term effects hospitalisation long-term effects threatening Injuries
So, the lesson out of this is, rather than determining the
worst case consequence, ask; what is the most plausible
consequence? If we do this for all of our risks, our assessed
risk levels will be more credible and, the decisions based on
these risk levels, more appropriate.
8
CONSEQUENCE BASED RISK
IDENTIFICATION
Traditionally, when identifying risk we analyse an activity to
determine what can go wrong then we assess the Likelihood
and Consequence should that event occur. In doing so, we
are likely to end up with a list of many risks – but are they the
right risks?
9
Reputation in the Consequence Matrix and ask the same
question: what event/s may lead to us seeing those Reputation
Consequences being realised.
Essentially, CBRI is just another tool in your tool box to help you
identify risk. Try it and see what risks flow from it.
RISK BIT #2
Today’s incident is
yesterday’s and
tomorrow’s risk.
10
CONSEQUENCE-BASED INTERNAL
AUDITING
Okay – maybe I am about to open a can of worms here – but I
think that Risk Based Internal Audit (RBIA) may be a misnomer.
This is all very true – particularly for those risks that don’t fall
within our target level of risk. But what about those risks that
fall within our target – do we simply now accept that they have
reached their target and become less vigilant?
11
is a direct correlation between the effectiveness of the control
environment and the Likelihood that the risk will be realised,
so if these controls are not the focus then the chances of
the risk eventuating becomes greater and nobody within the
organisation may be aware that the event could be imminent!!!!
12
CONSEQUENCE-BASED RISK
REPORTING
We have explored how we might use consequence to identify
risk and then use it as the basis for our internal audit program.
This section explores how we might use consequence as the
basis for risk reporting.
or this:
13
are used by management to assess the current status of the
risks in the organisation – but are management asking the
right questions when it comes to reporting? Simply receiving
a report that lists the top risks to the organisation, or a graph
that shows the categories of risk, or a heat map that shows us
where the risks lie in the Risk Matrix are all well and good –
but to what end? How do these graphs, in all honesty, assist
management to make Risk Informed Decisions?
First and foremost, I want to know which are the risks with the
highest level of consequence to the organisation – regardless
of Likelihood?
14
estimate - and even if we do have substantial amounts of data,
past data is not an accurate indicator of future outcomes –
otherwise the 1 in 100 year flood would happen on the same
day every 100 years. Of the two, Likelihood is the most difficult
(if not impossible) to estimate.
15
SOME THOUGHTS
ON ISO31000
(CONTROVERSY ALERT)
THE UNCERTAINTY CREATED
BY THE RISK MANAGEMENT
DEFINITION
Okay –this might be controversial – but as a risk management
professional – I truly dislike the risk management definition.
17
ISO Guide 73:2009 defines uncertainty as “state, even
partial, of deficiency of information related to a future event,
consequence or likelihood”.
RISK BIT #6
An absence of incident
is not an indicator
that a control is
effective. The only
way to know
is to measure
effectiveness.
18
THE LIKELIHOOD IDENTITY
CRISIS
I am a simple man and, therefore, I like my definitions simple
as well. From my earliest encounter with risk management,
Likelihood was considered to be the Likelihood that the event
being described would occur. We would then determine the
Consequences should that event occur.
19
to look at the likelihood that each of the consequences
will arise.
20
If we take the Standard literally then we end up with something
like the following table for each risk:
SEVERE RARE
MAJOR UNLIKELY
MINOR POSSIBLE
INSIGNIFICANT LIKELY
SEVERE RARE
MAJOR UNLIKELY
MINOR LIKELY
Food
poisoning INSIGNIFICANT POSSIBLE
in a kiosk at Unlikely
an aquatic SEVERE RARE
centre
MAJOR UNLIKELY
MINOR LIKELY
INSIGNIFICANT POSSIBLE
SEVERE RARE
MAJOR UNLIKELY
MINOR POSSIBLE
INSIGNIFICANT LIKELY
21
Impact Areas would be:
• Safety – Minor;
• Compliance – Insignificant;
• Revenue – Minor; and
• Reputation – Insignificant.
22
DESCRIBING A RISK
Another area that I see many organisations struggle with is the
manner in which a risk is described and captured in the risk
register. In fact, I dedicated a full section in my 1st eBook to
the subject. Once again, however, I believe that the Standard,
and, in particular, the Handbook to the Standard have created
confusion with respect to capturing risk information.
23
My next question is how is it treated? Are we treating the
reduction in margin on sales or are we treating the shoplifting?
What about the impact on other measures of effectiveness?
We have only mentioned one here so do we need another risk
that says: Shareholder value is reduced by more than 5% as a
result of shoplifting?
24
We then assess the effectiveness of the controls and determine
the Likelihood and the most plausible Consequence of
shoplifting based on the effectiveness of the controls. To
my way of thinking, describing a risk in this manner allows a
full assessment/analysis of not only the risk level but also the
control environment, what would lead to it happening and the
consequences if it did happen – without confining it to a single
objective or consequence.
25
CERTIFICATION AGAINST ISO
31000
I don’t get it. Maybe I am reading a different Risk Management
Standard to others – but I am at a complete loss to understand
how there are organisations out there who are accrediting
organisations and individuals to ISO 31000. Unlike Standards
such as ISO 9001, ISO 31000 is not a prescriptive Standard
but one that offers guidance.
26
they are effectively managing risk when, indeed, all they have
done is satisfy an organisation that itself may not understand
risk management that it has a risk management program.
You may have a piece of paper that says you are certified to
ISO 31000 as an organisation or an individual, however, in my
humble opinion (and based on the fact that the Standard itself
states that it is not intended for the purpose of certification)
there is only one use for such a piece of paper ………
CHAPTER SUMMARY
In summary, I continue to be somewhat baffled by the Standard
(and now the Handbook) as I struggle to comprehend what
they are trying to say.
To me, the Standard and the Handbook have taken away that
simplicity, created confusion and (in my opinion) made it less
likely that organisations will take up the mantle and use risk
management to create value to their organisation.
27
MANAGING RISK
IN OUTSOURCING
THE RISKS OF “MISSING
IN ACTION” CONTRACT
MANAGEMENT
Many organisations use outsourcing for non-core functions.
There is nothing wrong with that, in fact, for most organisations
it is an efficient use of resources – provided you are getting the
service you have paid for. In this section I want to discuss the
risks arising from outsourcing, in particular the risks that arise
from ineffective or non-existent contract management.
29
It needs to be recognised here that the overcharging that was
uncovered was for just one contract!!!!
30
• Processes need to be in place that clearly lay out the
governance of contractual change with a focus on
effective and prompt change implementation.
• Risks need to be formally identified and monitored
regularly, with mitigating actions developed and
implemented where possible, and ‘obsolete’ risks
removed from consideration where appropriate.
Escalation and reporting routes also need to be in place
for effective risk governance.
31
My observation within a Government context is that Contract
Administration is confused with Contract Management,
resulting in a less than optimal approach to the management of
the contract.
32
Where resource is insufficient or lacks appropriate skills and
experience, any aspect of contract management is at risk of
being missed.
What does this mean? Well first and foremost, the contract
needs measurable performance measures and key
performance indicators. But these in and of themselves are
of little benefit if they are not supported by the information
management systems necessary to capture and record data.
33
It has been my experience that Government organisations
do not maintain these systems to the level required and so
verification of performance, once again, becomes problematic.
34
managing an organisation’s commercial risk. There are
significant commercial and service management implications
where verification of services and charges is not effective.
CONCLUSION
I believe the MoJ experience should be a wake-up call for
all Government organisations in this country who manage
contracts, particularly those related to service delivery.
Why? The answer is simple - Government organisations and
Contractors have different drivers. The organisation wants
a service at a value for money price, whereas the company
wants to maximise profits for their shareholders. Are we that
naive that we believe that contractors won’t take shortcuts
when they can to reduce their costs for the provision of the
service? If they do - how are we ever going to know unless
we have a systematic contract assurance process tied to well
defined, measurable KPIs for which data is available to verify
performance claims?
35
BUSINESS CONTINUITY IN AN
OUTSOURCED ENVIRONMENT
One of the issues I dealt with in my first eBook and one that
I have observed for a long time now is the belief that some
organisations have that by outsourcing they have transferred
their risks to the contractor (the Risk Transfer Myth). Equally as
troubling is the fact that by outsourcing, the organisation is no
longer responsible for the business continuity of the function if
it fails – that is the responsibility of the contractor.
36
If you have not planned and, more importantly, tested, for
circumstances where contractor issues are the cause of
the disruption, then you are likely to end up neck deep in
something that doesn’t smell particularly nice – literally.
You may recall in the last eBook I stated that if you own the
consequence (or part of the consequence) you own the risk.
It is similar with business continuity – if you own the function
you are responsible for the continuity of that function – and
this responsibility is not nullified if the function is outsourced.
37
Simply believing that a Contract clause will remove the
responsibility of the organisation for the continued provision of
the service is both naïve and potentially dangerous.
38
RISKORICE
ALLSORTS
DOING RISK MANAGEMENT OR
MANAGING RISK
You have probably heard it – in fact, you yourself may have
said it “Our organisation does risk management” - but my
question is – are you actually managing risk?
40
DOING RISK MANAGEMENT MANAGING RISK
Staff feel too intimidated to raise Staff feel empowered to raise issues/
issues/risks for fear of reprisals. risks so that management have
all of the information required to
make risk informed decisions.
Risk reports are full of colour and Risk reports contain information
charts but insufficient information that assists in the decision
to make risk informed decisions making process.
41
The organisation seeks to assign individual responsibility after
an incident has occurred and doesn’t undertake post-event
analysis to identify the root causes .i.e. a blame culture exists.
The organisation understand that every incident/event is a
system failure and not the responsibility of one individual. Post
event analysis is conducted so the organisation can continue
to learn and grow.
You do risk
management if
you want to be
compliant – you
manage risk
if you want to
be successful!!!!!
42
DOWNSTREAM RISK – IS
YOUR CURE WORSE THAN
YOUR DISEASE?
An area of risk management that may not get as much attention
as it possibly should is that of downstream risk.
43
The first option is to install tempering valves. A tempering
valve mixes your hot and cold water to deliver hot tap water at
a constant temperature. Tempering valves have a temperature
sensitive element which adjusts the mix depending on the
temperature of the incoming water flowing through the valve.
The mechanism is a sliding valve that varies the ratio of hot
and cold water that is allowed to pass. The valve is designed
to maintain a constant outlet temperature, reducing the risk of
accidental scalding. This is expensive, but very effective in
reducing the risk of scalding.
44
• 2000 staff were potentially exposed to the bacteria;
• The hospital’s hot water systems had to be flushed
which involved turning up the water pressure and the
temperature to 65oC, with the showers and taps run for
10 minutes – which had to be performed more than 500
times across the entire hospital;
• Significant time and resources in the investigation of
the outbreak;
• Though not reported, it is likely that legal action would
have been taken by those affected;
• The reputation of the hospital suffered significant damage
as the outbreak was in the news for well over a month.
In my opinion, had
that research been
conducted at the
Wesley Hospital, this
outbreak would not
have occurred.
45
SHARED RISK
Element 7 of the Commonwealth Risk Management Policy
states that: each entity must implement arrangements to
understand and contribute to the management of shared risks.
It goes onto to define shared risks as: those risks extending
beyond a single entity which require shared oversight and
management. Accountability and responsibility for the
management of shared risks must include any risks that extend
across entities and may involve other sectors, community,
industry or other jurisdictions.
Of course, not all shared risks are going to have the same
span in terms of the number of organisations involved. In this
day and age, however, there will be a significant number of
risks within an organisation that cross functional boundaries
as a minimum and in some cases, will cross organisational
boundaries.
47
functional area subject to the highest level of
consequence should the event occur.
• Form a stakeholder management group for the risk (with
the risk owner being the Chair) and hold regular meetings
as part of the monitor and review process (the higher the
consequence, perhaps the more frequent the meetings).
• Ensure each functional area/organisation understand the
controls they are responsible for and provide assurance
at each meeting of the effectiveness of the controls so
that a true assessment can be made on the level of
that risk.
If the consequences
are shared – so
too should be the
management of
the risk.
48
ABOUT PALADIN
PALADIN RISK MANAGEMENT
Paladin Risk Management Services is the brainchild of Rod Farrar, who
founded the company in 2007 as a result of his passion and skill for
managing risk. Rod’s extensive experience in assisting organisations to
mitigate and eliminate professional risks they may encounter is at the
core of Paladin Risk Management Services.The core service offering is
risk management training workshops.
For those that cannot attend the courses in person, or want to learn at
their own pace, Paladin Risk Management Services offers a Diploma of
Risk Management and Business Continuity via distance education. This
comprehensive course enables you to become accredited through
the provision of education materials including an education kit and an
accompanying chapterised DVD.