What is the most effective method of planetary

defense?
Ian Cheung
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Choosing the topic
What i want my EPQ to be about
-something about space
-Something about spacecrafts
-Something about not being in the Earth’s
sphere of influence
-something cool
With the criterias, what can i do…………..
So the final two topics are…...
When Reality hits
- Is quite boring

- Can’t be evaluative about it

- Very simple answers

- Scares a lot of people(me)

Few reasons why it is a good idea
- No one has built a electromagnetic weapon and apply it on a content of
planetary defense

- Building an artifact will allow me to learn new skills

- it would allow me to evaluate the topic on a few different criterias

Many reasons why it’s a bad idea
-Building a Coil Gun in school is quite dangerous

- Homemade coil guns have been made before, therefore I will not be making
anything new

-Currently implementations/ research on electromagnetic weapons are for

military purposes

-The materials required to build the coil guns are really hard to procure
A wider perspective
- Not many people have looked at different methods together and
evaluating which one is the best

-Nikola schmidt is a advisory to the UN

regarding planetary defense and cyber

People who Nikola people who
Researched Schmidt looked into
warfare Planetary Asteroid
defense … impacts
Which method of planetary defense is the best?
Advantage Disadvantage

All about physics and space Have to learn new science topics that will not be
taught before university

A topic that meets my topic selection criteria Lack of publications on this particular topic
means lack of references to this research

Well within my comprehensive ability

A very niche topic (limited publication)

ALSO, VERY COOL TOPIC

Planning and Research
Planning for research
- The initial plan is for me to have an hour of research every Tuesday
evening and saturday afternoon
- This allows me to fit the research into my own schedule and cause
minimal disturbance to my life,or so i thought….

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

Research Research

Research Move research to

during frees Sunday afternoon
Planned research over the Christmas holiday
- Large amount of research was planned over the Christmas holiday as
there’s more free time to read through all the material
- My family also does not celebrate Christmas, this adds to the amount of
free time.
- As i have longer periods of research time, i mainly read through the long
scientific report that i didn’t have time to read at school

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

Research Research Research

Who will win? Or the entire internet
This one person

w o n
I
How i obtained the information
Source name credibility/ Thoughts on reliability Should i Why should/ shouldn't i use
reliability use it it

https://www.nasa.gov/conte Very reliable It is reliable as it is a well known Yes I should use it as it provides reliable
nt/asteroid-grand-challenge/ government space agency, which detailed information regarding the specific
mitigate/gravity-tractor means it’s primary goal is to topic. It also provides relevant additional
spread the knowledge of science links and references to other topics within
and all it’s publications are peer the NASA domain
NASA reviewed, therefore reliable

Reliable, but While it the article is published in Yes, but only I should use it as the there are many valid
https://www.jstor.org/stable/43 a peer reviewed science journal, it selective parts points about the national security risk of
310843?read-now=1&refreqid= possibly risks being obsolete due to the of it. Information planetary defense, which can be used in
excelsior%3Afa42be8a8a84b18
outdated as it fast pace of technological should also be many of my arguments, as many of these
e0d7c7c3a13fa15a2&seq=2#pa
ge_scan_tab_contents advancement. This article in double checked are still valid concerns due to the
is published particular tries to apply the for the stagnation in the aerospace industry.
Science and technology in 1990s prospect of planetary into a possibility that it
national security risk, which is not might be
Published by University
very suitable for my topic outdated
of Texas at Dallas

http://www.neoshield.eu/mitiga As this website is also from an Yes As this is a in development project,

tion-measures-kinetic-impactor
Reliable intergovernmental agency, which information can change rapidly, therefore
-gravity/kinetic-impactor-astero means it’s information is also peer it is imperative for me to check for any
id-deflection-spacecraft/ reviewed and reliable, as it’s update on the website.
primary is also to spread the
scientific information.
NEO-SHIELD (ESA)
https://www.digitaltrends.c unreliable As this is an online magazine,it’s No Due to its multitude of non-scientific
om/cool-tech/nasa-hammer primary purpose is to make profit off and straight up unreliable sources,
-project-asteroid-impact/ readers subscribing, therefore it’s this source will only be used for
information may be a little bit inaccurate referencing and comparative purpose
and unscientific for the due to the more and is not to dictate any argument in
Technology magazine- casual audience. This website also my report
digital trend quoted BuzzFeed, which is a well known
unreliable source.

national NEO preparedness This report is published by a US As planetary defence is spearheaded

strategy and action plan
Reliable government council, therefore it is
Yes by the US and EU, listening to one
reliable in terms of it’s content as it is side of the argument is certainly
Report by National fact checked by many agencies within important, as said before, the biased
the US government . But many of its must be taken into account when
Technology and arguments are also biased as it is a US using it as a source
Science Council centric report, therefore reliable, but the
biased must also be taken into account.

https://www.buzzfeednews.c unreliable This online journal has a reputation of No As it has a history of unreliability, i will
om/article/danvergano/nucle very unreliable information as it requires not use this website as a source as it
ar-asteroid-deflection-nasa advertisement revenue to earn money. would only reduce the reliability of my
Therefore the information present may report
be altered to make it easier to attract
Nuclear Deflection readers.
of
asteroids-BuzzFeed
When you need help…….
- In order to gather more information, experts were consulted to give
specialist opinion and information.
- Simon Green, planetary scientist and have been involved with the
development of the DART program.
- Jim Burke, advised the UN vis a vis planetary defence program manager of
the Ranger program.
<- Simon Green

James D Burke->
 When you need
more
clarification….
- The information that I have
received from Simon Green
has some contradiction with
my current understanding of
planetary defense systems.
- In order to clarify the
discrepancies, I have to get
more information from the
source himself.

So i requested an interview
with Simon Green.
The interview
After some discussion
about the timing of the
interview, the date was
set on February the 20th,
which was an
appropriate date within
my planned time-frame
of having the interview
done before half term
 The method of evaluation
- Since this is a highly data
driven research, i have
decided to use a formula to
decide the best method of
planetary defense

- The formula is based on

Human Development Index
as it takes multiple factors
and combine it into one
value.
To conclude the research section
Asking specialist for
Collecting second hand data Interview
information

Initially, i have researched Need specialist opinion and I have conducted an interview
through reading scientific information to allow my report with a specialist in order to
publications and information to have a more complete set remove contradiction in the
freely available on the internet. of information regarding research that i have collected.
Which provided the majority of planetary defence It also allows professional
the information that needed to opinion to be interjected into
be linked together I wished that i have asked the report.
more specialists for
Many of the timeslots originally information as that would I wished that i would have
scheduled for research has to be have removed the potential been better prepared for the
moved due to interference with biased of the two that i have interview.
my personal life asked
Writing the report
Planning for the report
Layout and style of the
report

- I have decided to
reference and utilize the
layout the style of previous
NASA reports, where the
data presentation is
centralised.
- This makes it easier for
non-experts to read and
understand the context of
the data.
Final plan
- I have decided to use a
detailed bullet point plan to
for the report in order for me
to scale the amount of
content written in the report
naturally

- It also allows pictures and

diagrams to be added easily
as it almost have type of
modularity to the plan.
 The tenuous part arrives…..
- For writing my report, total concentration is needed for me or else i would have lost my train of
thought and an incohesive report would be written.

- Therefore i have planned for a weekend in March

for me to write my report.

- I have chosen for the 23-24th March to write my

to write my report for a few reasons:
1. It is leave weekend
2. It is my second last weekend in the UK
3. There is nothing scheduled for the weekend
Progress of the report after the weekend
In conclusion of my process
Writing the report
A weekend was dedicated
to write the report of which
Researching the topic 1
i have carefully planned the
layout and content that
Information from researched would included in the report
from around the internet using
sources that i have deemed
reliable and accurate. I have 2
also requested the help of two
specialist in their respective Choosing the topic
field to allow me to form a
more complete perspective on I have chosen a topic from
the topic that i am researching 3 my area of interest, where i
have weighed the pros and
cons on doing the topic
 CONTENT:
What is the Most Effective Method of
Planetary Defense?
It’s simple, just like orbital
mechanics!
 The four evaluation criterias
● The Speed of deployment

● Technology required
● Operational cost
● Geopolitics
Different types of ● Comets
○ Pieces of ice that orbits the sun with a very
interplanetary objects eccentric orbit
● Centaurs
○ Objects with similar composition to comets that
orbits between Jupiter and Neptune.
● Asteroids
○ Rocky remnants of the formation of the solar
system, mainly orbits between Mars and Jupiter
■ C-type,primarily made of Carbon
■ S-type, made of metal silicate
■ M-type, made of dense iron or nickel
Potentially Hazardous objects
- Are interplanetary objects which their orbit will enter within 7.5million km
of Earth’s orbit
- As they have the possibility of impacting Earth

7.5M km

Potentially
Hazardous zone
 Near Earth Objects
- There are at least 100,000 estimated
Near Earth Objects that can cause
severe regional damage if it impacts
Earth.
- Less than 50% of those objects are
currently discovered and tracked
- Humans only directly occupy 1% of
71% of habitable landmass
- Therefore smaller asteroids(<50m) is
unlikely to cause a major catastrophe.
Effects of Asteroid Impacts
- 1905, an asteroid of diameter of 50m exploded over Tunguska.
- And flattened 2000km2 of siberian forest.
- No one was injured as the airburst was over Siberia

Notable asteroid events:

If the Tunguska asteroid impacted New York
-Cheyabinsk explosion (1400 casualties)
-2016, airburst over the atlantic ocean
Detection methods for NEOs
● Ground based telescopes e.g. PAN-STARRS
○ Uses blink comparator to find the location of the
asteroid
One of four PANSTARRS telescope in Hawaii
○ Can only use to find asteroids that reflect light, which
means it can hardly detect C-type asteroids.
● Use infrared satellites e.g. NEOWISE
○ It can track moving infrared signals in the sky, therefore
detecting low albedo asteroids i.e. C-type asteroids.
○ Very hard to track asteroids coming from near the Sun
as there is too much infrared interference.

Drawing of NEOWISE satellite in orbit

Different methods for planetary defenses

Kinetic impactor Lightsail/ radiation Evaporation Gravity tractor Nuclear standoff

pressure method detonation

Get a spacecraft Attaching a giant Uses satellite that A smaller spacecraft Detonating a nuclear
with a high mass light sail to the orbits around the orbits along side the device near the
and velocity and asteroid as use the asteroid and asteroid, using the asteroid, either
impact it on an radiation of the sun evaporate the crafts gravity to alter breaking it up or
asteroid to change to change direction asteroid's surface to the asteroids changes its velocity
its velocity over time. generate thrust direction with the evaporated
material
 Long time to Long time to
Justifications
reach orbit change velocity
● Near instantaneous change in velocity for target asteroid

1
Kinetic impactor ● Does not need to match orbit with the asteroid
● Therefore can take a relatively inefficient route to the asteroid

● Has to match orbit with target asteroid, therefore has to take a

2
Light pressure/ longer route to the asteroid
● Takes a long to change the asteroids velocity as radiation
radiation pressure pressure is weak

● Has to match orbit with target asteroid, has to take a longer route

3
Evaporation ● Power restriction of satellite causes a slow rate of evaporation
● Therefore takes a long time to change velocity
Method

● Has to match orbit with target asteroid, but also has to conserve

4
Gravity tractor fuel to change velocity, therefore takes the longest to reach the
target
● The high engine efficiency of the craft’s tractor means it has a
very low thrust, therefore takes a long time to change velocity

● Near instantaneous change in velocity for target asteroid due to

5
Nuclear standoff a high energy nuclear detonation
● Used when target is on final approach to Earth, therefore would
detonation not take long to reach the asteroid
The New 1. Better guidance and targeting systems

technology
a. So that the spacecraft can accurately arrive at the
intended target

required for PD 2. Improved Attitude, Orbit control system(AOCS)

missions
a. Maintenance of the orientation of the spacecraft is
crucial to mission success

3. More compact power source

a. So that more power can be supplied to a smaller
spacecraft for its power hungry systems

4. Improved safety system

a. So that the payload does not malfunction before
reaching the intended target
Planetary Improved targeting Improved AOCS More compact Improved safety
Defense system power source systems

Kinetic impactor

Lightsail/ radiation
pressure

Evaporation
method

Gravity tractor

Nuclear standoff
detonation
Operational Cost of a Mission
Technology and Design Mission Duration

● The more complex the spacecraft, the ● Longer the mission, the longer the
more funding required support equipment and personnel
● If the spacecraft uses existing needed to stay funded
technology, it will be cheaper ● Inflation over the years can cause the
● New technology has to be tested mission cost to increase significantly.
vigorously to ensure it does not fail ● Salary of highly trained personnel
during the mission. actually takes up a significant portion of
the cost.

*The operational cost of a mission assumes that bureaucratic inefficiency is same across different
planetary defense methods. Therefore it becomes a systematic error.
Cost of post launch support Cost of vehicles/R&D
Geopolitics
● Countries in the United Nations General Assembly
would have to vote on which method of planetary
defense to use
● Different countries would have different priorities and
therefore would act in their own self interest instead of
the world’s
● Demonstrated in 2018 international asteroid day ,
where delegates from around the world simulate an
asteroid situation, where they failed.
● This shows that countries are more likely to support a
method of planetary defense it it makes a dramatic
change in the asteroid's trajectory
Evaluation time!
As this is a data driven report, it is only appropriate if the final conclusion can
be calculated.
Results from the calculation of the formula
Nuclear is the best?????
- According to the calculation, using nuclear weapons is the best method
for planetary defense.
- Which is supported by a study made by NASA in 2007

BUT…………….
- Nuclear weapons are banned in space by the 1967 space treaty
- Also, not many member states are likely to support using a WMD to
defend against asteroids
“Nuclear option is fraught with political and moral issues and should be
used as a last resort”
-Kieth Hothsapple, 2004
 0.50Kinetic impactor
Comes out to be the most effective method of planetary defense.
So what have I learnt during my EPQ?
● Learnt to manage my time
○ Also to plan my workload 2 months ahead so that the work does not pile up right before
the deadline
○ Also learnt to schedule my time in blocks so that my day can be easily re-scheduled on
short notice
● Learnt to analyse a large amount of unfamiliar data and pick out the
relevant parts to my topic
● Learnt to evaluate sources regarding my topic
○ As different sources have different reliability and biased despite being a scientific report
● Use a variety of tools to ensure that i did not plagiarize and credit the
correct sources
Things that i wished i could have done better
● Prepared the interview better

● Asked more specialist for their input on the matter

● Have more backups for the report