Football Trading Strategy
Football Trading Strategy
Football Trading Strategy
Contents
Welcome ............................................................................................. 3
What is football trading? .................................................................... 7
How do betting exchanges work? ....................................................... 9
List of betting exchanges ................................................................ 11
Bank management ............................................................................ 13
Trading psychology ........................................................................... 14
Trading football for a living ............................................................... 17
Introduction to First Half Heaven ...................................................... 18
How FHH works .............................................................................. 20
Trade smart .................................................................................... 22
FHH Results .................................................................................... 23
Start on the road to a winning football trading strategy ................... 25
Welcome
Also like most people… when I first started trading, I blew my bank.
Of course, I didn’t know that at the time and felt like some sort of
failure, but eventually I realised that losing trades are simply
opportunities to learn.
After taking a year out, Kevin joined Betfair again. This time though,
his trades were based on statistics, probabilities and value rather
than football knowledge.
It worked!
Over the following two years, Kevin recovered all his losses and has
become one of the best football traders on the planet.
The point is… we don’t hide behind false names and shady profiles.
We are very open about who we are and what we do, which sets us
apart from many other characters out there on the internet.
Oh… and these events are completely free. How many others do you
see offering that level of help and support without a hefty fee?
Kevin and I have built Goal Profits from scratch and developed it into
the best football trading community available anywhere online.
We’ve been voted the best so many times, that we’re starting to lose
count. Click here to see all the awards we’ve won.
If you’re interested in trading football for a living, I’ll cover that too.
This isn’t an eBook which goes out of date either! I will direct you to
articles at Goal Profits which are regularly updated with the latest
information. You will always be ahead of everyone else.
Finally, it will be time for you to get started with First Half Heaven.
With trading, you can adjust your position - while the game is being
played - to lock in a profit or manage a loss.
Imagine being able to lock in a winner and avoid the agony of a late
equaliser spoiling your bet!
Let’s say that Dave is a financial trader looking to buy shares in Coca-
Cola. He checks the financial history of the company, strength of the
competition, current market conditions and so on.
The difference between the price Dave bought his shares at and the
price he sold them for is his profit.
Switch out Coca-Cola for Manchester City and the same applies.
It may be that Dave expects Manchester City to score the first goal of
the game during the first half.
It’s as if a stock market has been shrunk into a small amount of time.
You’ve probably heard of Betfair as it’s the biggest and most popular
betting exchange, but you may not know exactly how it works.
A betting exchange is where you can place bets against other traders,
rather than against a bookmaker, as in traditional forms of betting.
But if you think they are not going to win - that they will either lose
the game or draw it - you can place a lay bet against them.
If you are right and the team you have bet against loses or draws,
then your lay bet wins. If the team you chose to lay wins the match,
your bet loses and you have to pay out.
If you back a selection and the price comes in, you will be able to do
the opposite (lay) to guarantee a profit no matter what else happens.
Similarly, if you lay a selection and the price drifts, you will be able to
do the opposite (back) to guarantee your profit.
For example, if you back Arsenal to win and they go 1-0 up, their
price to win will come in (go lower) because now that they are in the
lead, they’re more likely to win the game.
You will be able to lay at a lower price and the difference will be your
profit (just as in the example with Dave and Coca-Cola).
If this doesn’t make sense to you right away, don’t worry! Once you
start trading it will soon become second nature.
The newest exchange is Smarkets, which was set up in 2008 and has
already traded over £1 billion in bets. Smarkets describes itself as the
more "advanced trading platform" and is preferred by many traders
due to the fact it has a low commission rate.
Betdaq, which was founded in the same year as Betfair, was sold to
Ladbrokes in 2013. It claims to handle more than £75 million worth
of bets in a typical week.
Bank management
Think about it... if you hit a large loss, how many profitable trades do
you then need just to get back to where you started?!
There are various websites which will try to convince you that they
have some sort of magical betting system which never loses, but
that's mathematically impossible. Live in the real world.
Your aim is to increase your bank over time as safely as possible. Set
reasonable, long-term targets and break them down into smaller,
manageable amounts.
Trading psychology
Imagine two guys go online and buy the same trading system:
1. Andy picks out three selections which kick-off within the next
hour. He hasn’t fully read the eBook but if he gets stuck, he’ll
have a look.
2. Bill spends the first day reading the eBook a couple of times
and by the time he’s done, there are only a couple of fixtures
left to be played. He decides they’re not quite good enough to
trade, so he leaves them alone.
I’m sure that you will agree with me that Bill’s approach is far better
than Andy’s. However, there are a huge number of people out there
just like Andy and not nearly enough Bills. Which one are you?
2. Dave also makes a loss on the first day. He goes back to look at
his selection process and all seems fine, so he puts it down to
one of those things. He knows there has to be losses along the
way, so he’s not worried long-term.
Again, you will agree more with Dave’s attitude and yet I see so
many Charlies. They simply give up at the first sign of all not being
perfect and, let’s face it, nothing is.
Your perfect plan will go wrong early on and how you react will
determine your future success.
Do you find a way to make it work or do you accept failure and quit?
If you dream about trading for a living, you’re certainly not alone.
How about if you worked part-time doing a job you enjoy, then
trading income is on top of that? For many people, that’s a much
more reasonable target.
For a start, there’s no salary paid into the bank at the end of each
month, no sick pay, no boss making sure that you’re productive with
your time. In fact, there’s no guarantee of anything at all.
Remember not to dive in head first, but to take your time and paper
trade some selections at first until your confidence builds.
First Half Heaven (FHH) is a great little system derived straight from
the Team Statistics software which all Goal Profits members enjoy
full access to.
It’s a great way to get started with trading; easy to use and low risk.
Of course, low risk means that you cannot hit big winners, but that’s
fine because you need plenty of low risk trades in your portfolio in
order to make a long-term profit.
Most of the full-time traders at Goal Profits use First Half Heaven, so
don’t be at all put off by how simple it is.
FHH has been working well for a number of seasons and it’s well
tested. You can back at almost any betting exchange or bookie of
your choice and there is no trading out needed after a goal.
You will often need to ‘trade in’ though, so this isn’t ‘set and forget’.
The system will work in any league worldwide as long as you are
guided by the stats; and you’ll have all of the hard work done for you
each and every day for free!
Here’s an example:
You can see the kick-off time, country, league and home/away teams
with league positions in brackets.
When you click on any team name you will see all results for the
current season, both home and away. This is very useful for
researching recent form.
You then have the number of games played in the current season
and how many of those games were 0-0 at half-time.
H1 tells you the percentage of home games that the home team
scored in the first half, A1 tells you the percentage of away games
that the away team scored in the first half and Pr1 is a calculation of
first half goal probability.
You can then see the current Betfair price and a rating of up to five
stars for each fixture. In the example above, Sandnes Ulf v Hodd did
not have a Betfair price as it did not go in-play.
Click here to access the Team Stats page and bookmark it!
FHH is a very simple strategy which only requires one first half goal.
The trick is to pick out the right games and, as you have already seen,
Team Stats does that for you.
It was also important that the kick-off times were an hour apart so
that I could take my winnings from the first one – hopefully – and
place them on the second.
The price was only 1.33 to back before kick-off but I was soon
matched in-play.
A goal was scored mid-way through the first half, turning my £10
stake into £14.18.
I then used that £14.18 to back ‘over 0.5 first half goals’ at IA
Akranes, again at 1.44.
I was matched around five minutes into the first half and needed just
one goal to bring in my double.
It was scored fairly early on. In fact, the home team were 3-2 ahead
by half-time!
And there’s the power of the double; my original £10 was now a little
over £20 from two very simple trades.
There’s no ‘trading out’ to worry about, just ‘trading in’ which makes
First Half Heaven perfect for anyone just starting out and a nice
portfolio add for experienced traders.
Tip: On Betfair, you can set up your ‘Over 0.5 Goals’ back at 1.44
before kick-off and click “keep”. Unless there’s a very early goal, you
will be matched and this will make your trade ‘set and forget’.
If you want to make the whole double ‘set and forget’ wait until the
following day for your second selection.
Trade smart
I don’t trade every fixture which appears on the shortlist, even when
there are only a couple to choose from.
If you try to force something which isn’t there, you’ll hit more losses
than you should. What’s the point in that? Football trading isn’t
entertainment for a Saturday afternoon, so trade smart.
FHH Results
You can see that on a busy weekend there are plenty of possible
trades and lots of winners.
There are also losers, of course, which are a part of betting and
trading, always have been and always will be.
However, as long as you make a long-term profit, you are not going
to be worried in the slightest by a losing double.
Look at this way. If you are risking 1pt in order to win 1pt and you
know that you will win 2 out of 3 trades, then over many months this
will add up to 200 winners from 300 trades.
You will make 200pts of profit from the winners, but you will lose
100pts from the 100 losing trades.
Overall?
Nice!
In order to get that profit though, you need 300 trades and you know
already that there will be 100 losers.
Do you care one bit if your next trade loses? Of course not!
It was just another trade and happened to be one of the losers you
already know about.
I hope you enjoyed reading about trading and First Half Heaven. Now
it’s time to take the first steps on your trading journey.
• Exclusive Team Stats and a Live Stats Module that make trading
very quick and easy.
• 16 profitable trading strategies with daily selections, just like
First Half Heaven.
• Additional tools that highlight trading opportunities quickly and
effectively.
• Training resources to help beginners learn trading from the
ground up, improving understanding and results over 16 weeks.
• An exclusive area for advanced traders, where you get to
master the psychology of trading.
• In-play support from professional football traders in our
exclusive chat room/forum and by email.
• Unparalleled (yes... really!) customer support by live chat and
email.
Get access to all the membership resources and the most successful
Betfair community around…
LEGAL NOTICE
Disclaimer & Terms of Use
We've put this free e-book together for educational purposes only; it's not a guarantee that
you will make a profit from football. Traders who have the correct mindset can make a very
good living from football, but trading decisions must be made with a view to long-term
profits and steady bank growth rather than a hope to "get rich quick".
In this book, we are sharing a trading strategy which can be highly successful, but if you
decide to trade using the ideas contained in this manual you are taking full responsibility for
your own actions. We cannot guarantee your success or income level.
The authors shall in no event be held liable to any party for any direct, indirect, punitive,
incidental or other consequential damages arising directly or indirectly from any use of this
material which is provided “as is” without warranties.
It is your responsibility to comply with gaming laws wherever you are. In regions where
gambling is illegal, this e-book must be used for informational purposes only. Any links in
this e-book which lead to a third-party website must only be used when the local laws allow.
You are not permitted to distribute this e-book and it may not be altered in any way. It may
not be shared or sold.
If you think you may have a problem with gambling, there is plenty of help available to you.
http://www.gamcare.org.uk/
http://www.gambleaware.co.uk/
http://www.gamblingtherapy.org/
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org.uk/