BBEK4203 Principles of Macroeconomics - Vdec19 PDF
BBEK4203 Principles of Macroeconomics - Vdec19 PDF
BBEK4203 Principles of Macroeconomics - Vdec19 PDF
Principles of Macroeconomics
BBEK4203
PRINCIPLES OF
MACROECONOMICS
Munzarina Ahmad Samidi
Norehan Abdullah
Jamal Ali
Zalina Mohd Mohaideen
Assoc Prof Dr Nor’ Aznin Abu Bakar
Wan Azman Saini Wan Ngah
Dr Law Siong Hook
Answers 250
INTRODUCTION
BBEK4203 Principles of Macroeconomics is one of the courses offered at Open
University Malaysia (OUM). This course is worth 3 credit hours and should be
covered over 8 to 15 weeks.
COURSE AUDIENCE
This is a core course for all learners pursuing the Bachelor of Management,
Bachelor of Business Administration, Bachelor of Human Resource Management,
Bachelor of Accountancy, Bachelor of Hospitality Management and Bachelor of
Tourism Management programmes.
As an open and distance learner, you should be able to learn independently and
optimise the learning modes and environment available to you. Before you begin
this course, please confirm the course material, the course requirements and how
the course is conducted.
STUDY SCHEDULE
It is a standard OUM practice that learners accumulate 40 study hours for every
credit hour. As such, for a three-credit hour course, you are expected to spend
120 study hours. Table 1 gives an estimation of how the 120 study hours could be
accumulated.
Study
Study Activities
Hours
Briefly go through the course content and participate in initial discussion 3
Study the module 60
Attend 3 to 5 tutorial sessions 10
Online participation 12
Revision 15
Assignment(s), Tests and Examination(s) 20
TOTAL STUDY HOURS ACCUMULATED 120
COURSE SYNOPSIS
This course is divided into 10 topics. The synopsis for each topic is presented
below:
Topic 1 introduces the field of economics from the macro perspective. In this
topic, learners will be exposed to basic concepts that are often used in the context
of economics such as employment, unemployment, inflation, financial policy and
fiscal policy. Learners will also learn about the economic cycle, which is divided
into five phases. Besides that, learners will also study the basics of aggregate
supply and demand plus the views of classical and Keynesian economists.
Topic 4 focuses on money and the banking system in Malaysia. Firstly, learners
will be introduced to the term „money‰. This topic explains in detail the banking
system, which covers financial institutions, non-bank financial institutions, non-
bank financial intermediaries and Islamic banks. Learners will also learn about
the credit creation process as well as quantitative and qualitative financial
policies. Learners will find out the reasons for money demand and the terms
used for the various categories of money supply. Besides that, this topic also
discusses the equilibrium in the money market and its relationship with interest
rates.
Topic 5 discusses the relationship between the goods market and the money
market in which they operate interdependently. Any events in each markets will
affect the other. Learners will be exposed to the two important links between the
goods market and the money market. The effects of an expansionary and a
contractionary fiscal policy on the economy will also be discussed. The
combination of fiscal and monetary policies are aimed at achieving certain
objectives.
Topic 8 introduces the concept of international trade. In this topic, learners will
discover about the factors that encourage international trade such as different
factors of production, different climate, different labour skills and consumption
patterns. In addition, the topic also focuses on two important concepts in
international trade ă absolute advantage and comparative advantage. Learners
will be exposed to the benefits of conducting international trade, the various
international trade barriers adopted by countries, terms of trade and the reasons
for implementing protection policies.
Topic 10 discusses the various monetary systems that were used since the
beginning of the 20th century. Specifically, learners will study the Gold Standard
system and the Bretton Woods system. Problems that occurred in each system,
which eventually led to the demise of the system, will be discussed. In addition,
the topic discusses at length the flexible exchange rate system as well as the
advantages and disadvantages of both the fixed and flexible exchange rate
systems.
Learning Outcomes: This section refers to what you should achieve after you
have completely covered a topic. As you go through each topic, you should
frequently refer to these learning outcomes. By doing this, you can continuously
gauge your understanding of the topic.
Summary: You will find this component at the end of each topic. This component
helps you to recap the whole topic. By going through the Summary, you should
be able to gauge your knowledge retention level. Should you find points in the
Summary that you do not fully understand, it would be a good idea for you to
revisit the details in the module.
Key Terms: This component can be found at the end of each topic. You should go
through this component to remind yourself of important terms or jargon used
throughout the module. Should you find terms here that you are not able to
explain, you should look for the terms in the module.
PRIOR KNOWLEDGE
Learners of this course are required to pass BBEK1103 Principles of
Microeconomics course.
ASSESSMENT METHOD
Please refer to myINSPIRE.
REFERENCES
Case, K. E., Fair, R. C., & Oster, K. M. (2017). Principles of economics (12th ed.).
Boston Pearson
Sloman, J., & Sutcliffe, M. (2006). Economics (6th ed.). New Jersey: FT Prentice
Hall.
INTRODUCTION
What comes to your mind when we talk about macroeconomics? What does it
stand for? Macroeconomics is an analysis of a countryÊs economic structure and
performance as well as government policies that affect economic conditions.
Economists are interested to know the factors that contribute towards a countryÊs
economic growth because if the economy progresses, there will be more job
opportunities, goods and services, and this will eventually raise the peopleÊs
standard of living. Macroeconomics can be used to test a particular theory to see
how the overall economy functions. The theory is then used to forecast the effects
of a particular policy or event. How about the other concepts in macroeconomics?
Let us find out and continue our study on this interesting subject.
1.1 MACROECONOMICS
Economists define macroeconomics as a field of economics that studies the
relationship between aggregate variables such as income, purchasing power,
price and money. In other words, macroeconomics examines the function of the
economy as a whole system, looking at how demand and supply of products,
services and resources are determined and factors that influence them.
(a) What are the Determinants of Economic Growth and Living Standards in a
Country?
Since a century ago, developed nations have achieved a high rate of economic
growth, which in turn has raised their peopleÊs standard of living.
Macroeconomics examines the reasons behind the speedy economic growth
in developed nations as well as why this growth is different between the
various countries.
Figure 1.1 shows MalaysiaÊs real output (measured using real gross domestic
product) from 2010 to 2018.
Based on Figure 1.1, we can see that there has been a steady increase in the
countryÊs output from 2010 to 2014 whereas there was a decline in the
economy (stock market crash) from 2014 to 2015.
Figure 1.2: Productivity per employee in Malaysia from May 2018 to April 2019
Source: Trading economics (2018)
Figure 1.2 shows the average productivity per employee in Malaysia from
May 2018 to April 2019. The productivity per employee increased every
quarter during this period.
ACTIVITY 1.1
Figure 1.3: Rate of economic growth (quarterly) in Malaysia between 2016 and 2019
Source: Trading economics (2018)
Figure 1.3 shows both the economic growth and decline. For example, an
obvious economic downturn occurred in Malaysia in mid 2018 due to the
Great Recession in United States as well as the world economic crisis. These
situations slowed down the Malaysian economy, causing the growth rate to
be in the negative during this periods.
Let us look at Figure 1.4, which shows the rate of unemployment in Malaysia
from 2011 to 2018.
(e) What Factors Cause the General Price Level or Inflation to Rise?
What does inflation mean? Inflation is an increase in the general price level
and is usually measured by looking at changes in the consumer price index.
In a macroeconomic analysis, the questions asked are as follows:
(ii) Why does the inflation rate differ from time to time?
(iii) Why does the inflation rate differ from one country to another?
Figure 1.5 shows the rate of inflation in Malaysia from 2009 to 2019.
What can you conclude about it?
As can be seen, the rate of inflation was high in in 2017 due to the rising price of
commodity goods. However, the price of goods and services in general are
relatively stable. Inflation rate is one of the macroeconomic variable indicators
used to measure the performance of a country.
ACTIVITY 1.2
In Malaysia, prices or goods were higher in 2010 compared to prices in
2012. Does this mean that the quality of life of Malaysians was much
better in 2012? Do you agree? Give your reasons in myINSPIRE online
forum.
EXERCISE 1.1
1. Define inflation.
Macroeconomic policies affect the overall performance of the economy. There are
two main macroeconomic policies, namely financial or monetary policies and
fiscal policies. However, other policies can also be used by the government to
influence the economic performance of a country. They are income policies and
supply-side policies.
SELF-CHECK 1.1
ACTIVITY 1.3
Refer to the websites of Bank Negara (www.bnm.gov.my) and the
National Statistics Department (www.statistics.gov.my). Can you find
the inflation rate and unemployment rate in Malaysia in 2018? What can
you conclude about these two rates? Share your finding with your
coursemates in myINSPIRE online forum.
Economic growth and recession generally involve the entire country and the
world, affecting almost all economic activities and involving more than just
purchasing power and production.
Do you know that there are different phases in economic activities? Let us look at
these phases in the next subtopic.
(i) Depression
If the economic downturn is very bad, it is known as depression.
Although there is no official definition, depression is a sudden
depreciation in the national production, followed by an increase in the
unemployment rate, which lasts for more than a year.
(ii) Recession
Recession is a more moderate economic slowdown, which involves a
decrease in total production and purchasing power, usually lasting for
at least six months.
Now let us look at Figure 1.7, which shows an example of a business cycle.
Figure 1.7 shows the business cycle with its economic activities and movements
along the long-term growth trend line. Recession will occur when the previous
economic expansion has reached its peak and has fallen into a pit, which is the
trough. The economy will then begin to boom again after experiencing a recession
and it will continue to grow until it reaches a new peak. Therefore, the point from
one peak to another peak is called a cycle. Similarly, the point from one trough to
the next one is also a complete cycle.
Let us look at another business cycle. Figure 1.8 shows the business cycle in
Malaysia from 1960 to 2000, which is reflected through the actual national output
growth rate.
Referring to the Figure 1.8, we can see that Malaysia suffered a recession during
the years between 1974 and 1975, 1985 and 1986, and 1997 and 1998, when the
economy was in a trough. Strong domestic demand is expected to keep the
economy on a robust growth path in 2019, despite moderating household
expenditure growth after last yearÊs stellar performance. The economy is growing
at 4.5 per cent in 2019, which is unchanged in the forecast, and is expected to
increase 4.5 per cent in 2020.
ACTIVITY 1.4
EXERCISE 1.2
EXERCISE 1.3
Stagflation is the situation where the overall price level rises rapidly
during periods of recession or high unemployment.
According to this view, most of the instability in the economy could have
been avoided if the money supply had not been expanded rapidly.
Proponents of the monetarist view argued that the money supply should
grow at a rate that is equal to the average growth of the real output (Y).
EXERCISE 1.4
The price level in the economy is the weighted average of the prices of all
goods and services such as food, housing, clothing, entertainment, transport,
medical and all other products.
Figure 1.9 shows an aggregate demand curve (AD) where the vertical axis
(y-axis) shows the average price level and the horizontal axis (x-axis) shows
the aggregate output or the actual gross domestic product (GDP), which will
be discussed in Topic 2. The negative slope of the aggregate demand curve
captures the inverse relation between the aggregate output and the price
level. This means that if the price level drops, consumers will demand more
goods and services, thus increasing expenditure.
(d) Equilibrium
The intersection of aggregate demand and supply will determine the balance
between price level and economic output, as shown in Figure 1.11.
Two important macroeconomic policies are financial policy and fiscal policy.
These policies will be used to achieve macroeconomic objectives such as full
employment, price stability and satisfactory economic growth. However, there
are also other policies that can be used by the government to affect the
economy, namely income policy and supply-side policy.
Economic changes in relation to the increase and decrease in output can be seen
from the business cycle.
Normally, the business cycle has two important phases ă expansion and
contraction. This can be seen in detail from its different levels ă peak, recession,
trough, recovery and expansion.
The aggregate demand curve has a negative slope, which shows the inverse
relationship between price level and aggregate output demanded.
The interaction between the aggregate demand curve and aggregate supply
curve will determine the balance between price level and aggregate output in
the economy as a whole. It is known as the equilibrium.
Trading Economics. (2018). Malaysia GDP annual growth rate. Retrieved from
https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/gdp-growth-annual
INTRODUCTION
Macroeconomic theories began developing and gaining popularity following the
recession in 1929. The economic downturn continued for more than five years and
an unemployment rate of up to 25 per cent was recorded in the United States of
America. This meant that every one out of four persons was unemployed or did
not work and that was indeed a very high rate of unemployment.
From time to time, other problems that needed to be solved using the macro
view cropped up such as inflation and deficit. In the absence of inflation and
unemployment, the system of free market economy cannot measure the stability
of the economic activity that is being carried out. The existence of such problems
helps open up more room for macroeconomics to grow. In this topic, the focus will
be on the main issue of macroeconomics, which is national production. Let us learn
more about national production in this exciting new topic.
National production and national output mean the same thing. These terms
refer to the final products or goods and services produced by a country during
a specific period of time, for example, a year.
Figure 2.1 shows the circulation of physical goods (products and resources) and
cash between households and firms. Every circulation of physical goods will be
followed by a circulation of cash in the opposite direction.
The circulation of resources (production factors such as land, capital, labour and
entrepreneurs) from households to firms will be followed by cash from the firms
to the households. Resources possessed by households that are utilised by firms in
the production process will be paid for by the firms.
The circulation of goods from the firms to households will also be followed by the
circulation of cash from the households to the firms, which represents the payment
for the goods purchased by households from the firms.
ACTIVITY 2.1
Every country has its own method of evaluating its economic activity. One thing
is certain, the process undertaken to do this is certainly not a simple one. The same
goes for Malaysia. Malaysia has its own method of measuring the total output and
the ins and outs of actual economic activities. Have you ever thought about how
the Malaysian government measures its national production?
One national production concept that Malaysia applies is the gross domestic
product (GDP). What does it stand for?
Gross domestic product (GDP) refers to the total market value of all final
goods and services produced within the borders of a nation during a specified
period.
Example 2.1:
If an orange is sold for 30 sen and the price of a computer is RM1,000, the value
of 100 oranges and five computers is RM5,030, which is derived from RM30 for
the oranges and RM5,000 for the computers.
Example 2.2:
Proton X70 (MalaysiaÊs national car) is the final product but the tyre it uses is
an intermediate good. GDP only considers the goods that are being sold in the
market. Therefore, goods produced for your own consumption are not taken
into account in the GDP.
Example 2.3:
Nike, an American company, produces clothing in Malaysia. The value of the
clothing produced in Malaysia is part of MalaysiaÊs GDP but not the GDP of
the United States.
Example 2.4:
In Malaysia, Bank Negara uses the quarterly data to detect any changes in
short-term economic activities. Economists, on the other hand, use annual data
to evaluate the growth in long-term economic activities.
EXERCISE 2.1
True (T) or False (F) Statements
Another concept that is used to measure the production of a country is the gross
national product (GNP). In other words, GNP does not take into account the value
of output produced by a foreign firm even though the production operation is
carried out within the country.
Gross national product (GNP) means total market value of final goods and
services produced by a countryÊs nationals using their own resources,
regardless of whether the production operations are carried out within or
outside the country.
For example, the value of clothing produced by Nike in Malaysia is not included
in the calculation of MalaysiaÊs GNP. Instead, it is used in the calculation of
AmericaÊs GNP.
ACTIVITY 2.2
While walking in shopping malls, you must have seen business premises
selling branded goods like Gucci, Laura Ashley, Guess, Dorothy Perkins,
Topshop, Nike and such.
After studying the concepts of GDP and GNP, in your opinion, what are
the contributions made by these businesses towards MalaysiaÊs economic
growth? Share your answer with your coursemates in myINSPIRE online
forum.
EXERCISE 2.2
2. A product was made in 2018 but sold in 2019. For the purpose of
calculating the GDP, which year will be taken into account?
There are four groups of people who will purchase final goods and services,
namely households, firms, government and overseas consumers.
The expenditure of these groups of people can be divided into four categories,
namely personal consumption expenditures, gross investments, government
purchases of final goods and services, and net exports. Figure 2.3 shows the four
categories of expenditure.
Expenditure Description
Personal consumption This category includes expenditures by households on
expenditures final goods and services. This includes expenses for food,
laundry, rental and so on.
Gross investments This category refers to investments by firms on capital
equipment such as machinery and building as well as
inventory. Produced goods that cannot be sold also add
on to the inventory and thus, is included in investment.
Purchase of shares and bonds are not considered as
investments since these are not the purchase of final
goods or services.
Therefore, the total expenditure for the final goods and services produced by a
country is the sum after adding all the four categories as listed in the following:
(b) Investments =I
Total expenditure represents the value or sum received by the firms that produce
the final goods and services.
According to the production approach, all the values of final goods and services
from the various economic sectors are added in order to calculate the GDP.
Figure 2.4 shows examples of sectors found in Malaysia. For your information, the
economic sector in Malaysia can be divided into three groups, namely the main
sector, the industrial sector and the service sector. Information on the value of
production in each of these sectors is obtained through census.
This approach uses the concept of adding up all the values to avoid the problem
of counting a value twice. Value added refers to the additional value of the goods
and services when they moved from one stage to another during the production
process. The additional value of the goods and services obtained from each stage
of the production are calculated instead of the accumulated value at each stage.
The problem of counting a value twice is a situation whereby the value of the
goods is counted more than once when measuring the GDP.
What is the impact of this problem? It can cause the GDP to be overestimated and
the value will not reflect the actual figure. To make it easier for you to understand,
let us refer to Example 2.5. Table 2.2 is your guide to the example.
Example 2.5:
Assume that there are three steps to produce a dress. In the first process, cotton
is processed into thread and sold to Firm II for RM100. At this stage, a value of
RM100 is produced (assuming that the cotton is obtained for free).
Firm II then produces cloth using the thread and sells it to Firm III for RM150.
This process adds a value of RM50 to the original RM100.
Subsequently, the cloth is made into a dress at this third stage of production.
The dress is then sold by Firm III to consumers for the price of RM230.
Therefore, a value of RM80 has been added on to the price for which the cloth
was purchased.
Factors of
Income Approach Explanation
Production
Labour Compensation to Means wages paid to employees. It includes net
employees/salary wages and salaries added to fringe benefits paid
by the employer such as health insurance, social
security contributions and gratuities/pension
fund contributions.
Capital Net interest Means the interest payments on deposits made
by banks to the customers/households. This
payment must deduct the interest paid by
customers/households for loans taken.
Land Rental income Means total rent collected for the use of land
and other inputs. It includes payment of house
rental and estimated rental, which should be
paid by those who live in their own homes.
We can conclude that the national income is measured by adding the total of all
income mentioned in Table 2.3 as shown in the following formula.
National Income:
Compensation of employees + Net interest + Rental income + Corporate profit
+ ProprietorÊs income = GDP (factor cost)
There are four factors of production, namely land, labour, capital and
entrepreneurs. Each factor of production has its own income (Table 2.3).
Entrepreneurs have two incomes depending on whether the individuals are
working corporates or running their own business. Individuals who work for
corporates will gain corporate profits while those who run their own business will
have proprietorÊs income instead. Corporate profits are made up of three
components ă dividends, corporate taxes and undistributed corporate profits
(development funds for future purpose).
SELF-CHECK 2.1
Provide the meanings of the following method using your own words.
Indirect taxes and subsidies are two elements that differentiate the market price
from the factor cost. Sales tax causes the value of the market price to be more than
the factor cost whereas subsidies make the factor cost higher than the market price.
In order to adjust the factor cost to the market price, indirect taxes have to be added
and subsidies have to be deducted as shown in the following formula.
Let us look at Example 2.6, which shows you how to calculate the value of GDP
for Country X at market price.
Example 2.6:
The following information concerns the national income of Country X.
Answer
GDPmp = GDPfc + Indirect taxes ă Subsidies
= RM100 million + RM25 million ă RM7 million
= RM118 million
EXERCISE 2.3
2. How can the value of factor cost be adjusted to the market price?
ACTIVITY 2.3
Besides the activities that are not included in the measurement of GDP, there are
also limitations in the GDP concept in terms of social welfare. As we know, an
increase in GDP is a good thing and it is one of the main objectives of the
macroeconomic policy. However, can we use the GDP concept as a measure of
welfare? A decrease in crime level in one country will definitely improve social
welfare but crime level is not measured in GDP. If the crime level is decreased,
society would be better off but a decrease in crime is not an increase in output, thus
it is not reflected in GDP. Similarly in the case of pollution, GDP does not reflect
losses. It simply shows that GDP is higher when more outputs are produced
despite the effects of pollution on society.
There are two types of GDP, namely real and nominal. Let us check out their
definitions.
Nominal GDP is the market value of final goods and services produced on an
economy, unadjusted for inflation.
To make it easier for you to understand these two concepts, let us refer to
Table 2.4. Imagine that Country X only produces two goods, namely food and
clothing. Table 2.4 shows the quantities and prices for the two items for the year
2018 and 2019.
Based on the information in Table 2.4, the nominal GDP value, which is the value
of goods produced for a specific year for a country during 2018 and 2019, is stated
as follows:
On the other hand, the real GDP for the year 2018 based on the price in 2018 is:
Since the price used is the same, which is the price for the year 2018, the values of
real GDP and nominal GDP are the same, that is, at RM250.
Based on the pricing in 2018, the real GDP value for 2019 is:
Comparatively, the value of real GDP for the year 2019 is lower than the nominal
GDP value for the same year.
The rate of growth in real GDP between 2018 and 2019 can be calculated as follows:
The value of 28 per cent shows the average growth rate for both food and clothing
for Country X between year 2018 and 2019.
EXERCISE 2.4
1. State the types of activities that are not included in the calculation
of national production.
Let us take a further look at the five main uses of national production data.
Besides the mentioned factors, total capital owned by a country also affects the
level of national production. Countries that have less capital cannot afford to
produce large outputs compared to countries that have more capital.
The level of technology also determines the national production level. Countries
that have knowledge and technological advancement are able to produce goods
and services using faster and more efficient methods.
Did you know that terms of trade also affects the income of a country? What does
this mean?
Terms of trade refers to the ratio of the amount a country receives for its export
commodity to the amount it pays for its import commodity.
Terms of trade are good if they show that a country is receiving a higher import
quantity compared to its export quantity. This means the country pays less for the
products it imports, in other words, it has to give up less exports for the imports it
receives.
Receiving assistance from other countries can also improve the recipient countryÊs
standard of living. For example, assistance provided by international
organisations and developed nations can help reduce the rate of poverty in poor
countries. The national production of developing countries can be improved with
the help of other countries.
EXERCISE 2.5
ACTIVITY 2.4
ACTIVITY 2.5
Based on your understanding of the problems that usually arise in
calculating national production, identify if there are any problems that
were not mentioned and list them down. Share your answer in
myINSPIRE online forum.
A business cycle usually lasts for a period of between two and ten years,
accompanied by expansion and contraction of various sectors in an economy.
Based on Figure 2.8, you can see that there are five stages of the business cycle ă
peak, trough, recovery, growth (expansion) and recession (contraction). The points
between the stages are indicated by peaks and troughs. The most important phases
in a business cycle are growth (expansion) and recession (contraction). An
economy is said to have achieved a full cycle when it has gone through the five
stages. For example, a business cycle that starts at the peak is complete when it
ends at the next peak.
Recession starts at the peak and ends at the trough. Recession occurs when the
value of real national production drops for two quarters of a year in a row. The
main characteristics of a recession include a decrease in demand for labour and a
reduction in spending by consumers. Recession is also reflected in a drop in firmsÊ
profits. Since consumer spending decreases during recession, all the firmsÊ unsold
products will increase and this will raise the firmsÊ inventories.
Expansion, on the other hand, begins at the trough and ends at the peak. The early
stage of expansion is called recovery. This happens when the national production
actually increases for six months continuously. A growth in the economy reflects
an increase in business sector confidence, a hike in investment and a demand for
labour. As income increases, the peopleÊs spending power increases as well. FirmsÊ
profits will also increase resulting in reduced inventories.
EXERCISE 2.6
1. There are many problems that have to be dealt with in the
calculation of national production. Explain the usual problems that
are likely to arise.
There are important economic variables that are related to national production.
The circular flow of the income model is used to explain the relationship
between income and expenditure.
There are three approaches for measuring gross domestic product (GDP),
namely expenditure approach, production approach and income approach.
Although these three approaches are different, they result in the same GDP
value.
There are five uses of national production data. In addition, internal and
external factors affect the national production level.
There are five stages in a business cycle ă peak, trough, recovery, growth
(expansion) and recession (contraction). An economy is said to have achieved
a full cycle when it has gone through the five stages.
INTRODUCTION
At the beginning of this topic, you will be introduced to the equilibrium of the two-
sector economy, followed by three-sector and four-sector economy. In the later
part of this topic we will discuss about fiscal policy and how it can be used to solve
inflation and deflation problems.
Sector Explanation
Households Households are economic units that own the factors of production. They
decide on the use of goods and services as well as savings. Households
have the role of supplying services to the firms.
Firms Firms are economic units that decide on production. Firms buy the
factors/resources from households and sell/supply the goods and
services to the household sector.
A physical flow can be in the form of goods and services while a cash flow can be
in the form of fees, rental, interests, profits and payments for the use of goods and
services.
Firms produce a certain quantity of goods and services in a given period known
as the aggregate output (Y). Since each ringgit spent is received as income by
someone else, the aggregate output and aggregate income are the same.
There are four important concepts in a two-sector economyÊs flow of income. Let
us analyse each of these concepts.
We often state that that the higher the individualÊs income, the higher his
expenses will be. This concept is also applicable for the overall economy.
There exists a positive relationship between aggregate income and aggregate
consumption.
C = a + bYd
Where, C = Consumption
a = Autonomous consumption
b = Marginal propensity of consumption (MPC)
Yd = Disposable income (Y ă T ); Y = Income, T = Tax
Change in consumption C
MPC =
Change in income Y
Total consumption C
APC =
Total income Y
Disposable income is the net income remaining after taxes have been paid
(Y ă T ). This income can be used to buy goods and services. As the
government sector does not exist in a two-sector economy, taxes T = 0, and
therefore Yd = Y.
Yd = C + S
Yd = a + bYd + S
S = ă a + (1 ă b)Yd
whereby, S = Savings
ăa = Negative savings (due to autonomous consumption)
(1 ă b) = Marginal propensity to save (MPS)
Yd = Disposable income
Based on Figure 3.3, we can see that negative savings (ăa) is the value when
Y = 0.
Change in savings S
MPS =
Change in income Y
Total savings S
APS =
Total income Y
Yd = C + S
Y C S
Y Y Y
That is,
1 = APC + APS
Y = C + S
Y C S
Y Y Y
That is,
1 = MPC + MPS
MPC = 1 ă MPS
or
MPS = 1 ă MPC
AD = C + I
Aggregate supply is the total goods and services produced within the country, that
is:
Therefore, AS = Y
AD AS Approach
C I Y
or
AS AD
Y C I
In a non-balanced state, for instance, when the aggregate expenditure is more than
the aggregate output, there will be an unforeseen drop in inventory. Firms will
react by increasing output. This will help increase income and eventually the level
of consumption as well. This process will continue until the level of equilibrium is
achieved.
Did you know that the level of national income equilibrium can be determined by
using any of the following three methods?
(a) Table;
(a) Table
If MPC = 0.75, consumption is RM500 million when income equals to zero
and autonomous investment is RM200 million.
If the income is lower than 2,800, it will form an unstable condition because
AD > AS. This will encourage firms to increase production and economic
activities will increase until AD = AS is achieved.
C = 500 + 0.75Yd
S = ă500 + 0.25Yd
You can see the effects of change in AD (change in investment) as they are shown
in Figures 3.7 and 3.8.
The multiplier effect causes the income to change at a higher rate compared to the
change in AD earlier. In a two-sector economy, changes in the AD component is
based on the levels of investment (I ).
Let us look at Example 3.1 which describes the multiplier effect in more detail.
Example 3.1:
To understand the multiplier effect, assume MPC = 0.8 and change in
investment = RM150 million. It is found that the multiplier value K = 1/0.2 = 5.
This multiplier value indicates that the change in investment will change the
value of Y by the amount of the investment multiplied by five.
Assuming the original equilibrium level is RM2,500 million. Therefore, the new
national income level is:
SELF-CHECK 3.1
Reflect on what you have studied so far. What are the characteristics of a
two-sector economy? State these characteristics in a table format.
EXERCISE 3.1
1. In a two-sector economy, explain the relationship between
consumption, savings and disposable income.
2. Give the definition of the multiplier and state how the size of the
multiplier is obtained.
Through the three-sector economy, the government can influence the economic
activities by using two specific policies. The policies are:
You will learn more about financial or monetary policy in the next topic. For now,
let us continue our discussion on fiscal policy.
(ii) Economic aim, for example, to reduce the unemployment rate; and
(iii) Political situation and peace, for example, increased expenses during
the election campaign.
The financial sources that cover government expenses are obtained mainly
from taxes, domestic loans such as from the Central Bank and Kumpulan
Wang Simpanan Pekerja (KWSP), loans from overseas such as the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) or sale of bonds and so on. The
government determines government expenditure exogenously.
Taxes can be categorised into two types, namely direct taxes and indirect
taxes as explained in Table 3.4.
Let us refer to Table 3.5 for a more detailed explanation on the three types of
taxes.
The proportional tax function shows the relationship between taxes and
income as follows:
T = s + tY
Did you know that autonomous tax (s) does not depend on income? It exists
even when Y = 0, in other words, households must pay taxes even if they do
not have an income.
C = a + bYd
C = a + b (Y ă T )
S = ăa + bYd
S = ăa + b (Y ă T )
For example, if a = 9,000, MPC = 0.75 and T = 1,000, what is the value of
consumption and savings?
AD AS Approach
C I Y
or
AS AD
Y C I
Besides consumption, income is also used for savings and payment of taxes.
Therefore, the equilibrium condition can also be written as:
Here, national income equilibrium is calculated using two main methods, which
are:
If it is given that a = RM900 million, MPC = 0.75, I = 150 million, G = 600 million
and T = 600 million, what is the consumption function and the savings function
with tax?
Y = C+I+G
Y = 450 + 0.75Y + 150 + 600
Y ă 0.75Y = 1,200
Y = 1,200/0.25 = 4,800
The Injection = Leakages approach will also derive at the same answer:
I+G = S+T
150 + 600 = ă1,050 + 0.25Y + 600
750 + 1,050 ă 600 = 0.25Y
1,200/0.25 = Y
Y = 4,800
What is the level of the national income equilibrium for the following
problem?
Y = C+I+G
Y = (70 + 0.9Yd ) + 35 + 20
Y = 125 + 0.9 (Y ă T )
Y = 125 + 0.9Y ă 0.9T
Y = 125 + 0.9Y ă 0.9(25 + 0.2Y )
Y = 102.5 + 0.72Y
(1 ă 0.72)Y = 102.5
Y = 102.5/0.28
= 366.07
I+G = S+T
35 + 20 = (ă70 + 0.1Yd ) + (25 + 0.2Y )
55 = ă70+0.1 (Y ă T ) + (25 + 0.2Y )
55 = ă70 + 0.1 (Y ă 25 ă 0.2Y ) + 25 + 0.2Y
100 = ă2.5 + 0.08Y + 0.2Y
102.5 = 0.28Y
102.5/0.28 = Y
Y = 366.07
In Figure 3.11, B represents the original equilibrium point, where AD = AS and the
income level = Yoriginal.
On the other hand, a drop in government expenditure by ăG will cause the AD0
curve to move downwards to AD2. A new equilibrium point is reached at A when
AD2 crosses AS at income level Y 2.
Change in income, Y = KG G
Using the same example, if the government reduces G from RM600 million
to RM400 million, (G = ă200),
Y = 1/0.25 G
= 4 ă200
= ă800
Using the same example, if the government reduces the tax by RM150 million
(which means a reduction from RM600 to RM450), then the value of KT =
ă0.75/0.25 = ă3 and the change in equilibrium income, Y = ă3 ă150 = 450.
The calculation shows that a decrease in tax will increase the national income.
EXERCISE 3.2
1. Elaborate on the two additional concepts as a result of the existence
of the government sector in a three-sector economy.
Figure 3.13 shows the players and markets in a four-sector economy or open
economy.
Export (X) is the sale of goods and services to foreign countries, regardless of
consumer products, capital goods or raw materials.
Net Export (X ă M ) = Xn
The value of all goods and services produced within the country that are sold
overseas MINUS the value of all goods and services produced overseas that are
purchased by the countryÊs local people.
Import can be categorised into fixed import and proportionate import. Import is
determined exogenously. The discussion in this topic involves the components of
fixed import and proportionate import.
Proportionate import function shows the relationship between import and income
as shown in the following equation:
M = n + mY
AD AS Approach
Y C I G X M
where, X = X 0
M = M0
C = 500 + 0.5Yd
T = 100
G = 100
I = 100
X = 100
M = 50
Yd = C + I + G + X ă M
Yd = 500 + 0.5(Y ă 100) + 100 + 100 + 100 ă 50
Yd = 750 + 0.5Y ă 50
0.5Yd = 700
Yd = 700/0.5
Yd = 1,400
S+T+M = I+G+X
ă500 + 0.5(Y ă 100) + 100 + 50 = 100 + 100 + 100
0.5Y ă 50 = 300 + 500 ă 150
Y = 700/0.5
Y = 1,400
Now let us look at the same economy model but with the proportionate import
function.
An open economy model is given in the following. Calculate the level of output or
national income equilibrium.
C = 500 + 0.5Yd
T = 100
G = 100
I = 100
X = 100
M = 50 + 0.2Y
Yd = C + I + G + X ă M
Yd = 500 + 0.5(Y ă T ) + 100 + 100 + 100 ă (50 ă 0.2Y )
Yd = 750 + 0.5Y ă 50 ă 0.2Y
(1 ă 0.3Yd) = 700
Yd = 700/0.7 = 1,000
S+T+M = I+G+X
ă500 + 0.5(Y ă 100) + 100 + (50 + 0.2Y ) = 100 + 100 + 100
0.7Y ă 50 = 300 + 500 ă 150
Y = 700/0.7 = 1,000
Both the examples clearly show the negative connection between import and the
equilibrium level of national income. This means that any increase in import will
reduce the equilibrium level of national income. On the other hand, a decrease in
import will help to increase the equilibrium level of national income.
In Figure 3.14, point B is the original equilibrium level where AD = AS and income
level = Yoriginal. If a positive change happens, meaning the net export is higher
(X > M ), then the AD0 curve will move to AD1. A new equilibrium will be achieved
at point C when AD1 crosses AS at Y 1.
On the other hand, if there is a negative change whereby total imports exceed total
exports (X < M ), the AD0 curve will move downwards to AD2. A new equilibrium
will be achieved at point A when AD2 crosses AS at income level Y2.
Y = 1/0.5 X
= 2 100
= 200
Y = 50 Multiplier
= 50 2
= 100 million
The calculation shows that an increase in imports will reduce the national
income value.
SELF-CHECK 3.2
EXERCISE 3.3
1. List down all the players in a four-sector economy and explain the
additional two concepts that exist in this sector compared to a
three-sector economy.
ACTIVITY 3.1
This policy is much easier to implement but it cannot overcome problems such as
unemployment and inflation. Basically, it depends on a countryÊs tax structure.
Discretionary fiscal policy is divided into three types as described in Table 3.6.
Type Explanation
Budget deficit policy This is the state of a governmentÊs budget when
government revenue is less than its expenditure. It is
carried out by reducing taxes, increasing government
expenditure, or both, to overcome deflation and
unemployment.
Budget surplus This is the state of a governmentÊs budget when
policy government revenue exceeds its expenditure. It is
carried out through an increase in taxes, decrease in
government expenditure, or both, to overcome inflation.
Balanced budget This is the state of a governmentÊs budget when the
policy government revenue equals its expenditure. It is carried
out when full employment is achieved and it aims to
ensure economic stability and to strengthen the
governmentÊs financial position.
Let us say that the government increases its spending by RM20 billion. At the
same time, the government finances its spending through an equal increase
in taxes. An increase in government spending has a positive impact on the
aggregate expenditure. Meanwhile an increase in taxes has a negative impact
on the overall spending in the economy. The net effect of an increase in tax
on aggregate expenditure would depend on how households respond to it.
As discussed earlier, the personal income received by households is used for
spending and savings. When disposable income decreases, both household
consumption and savings also reduce. An increase of taxes by RM20 billion
reduces disposable income and consumption. Consumption reduces by
RM20 billion MPC (assuming that MPC = 0.8) = RM16 billion.
Y = G or T KBB (1)
= RM20 billion.
1 MPC 1 MPC
KB
MPS MPS MPS
1 MPC
KB 1
1 MPC
The effects of government fiscal policy that can influence economic conditions can
be seen in inflationary and deflationary gaps. Let us find out more about them in
the next subtopic.
This situation exists in an economy that has achieved full employment. Since all
the resources have been used at this point, an increase in demand will cause a hike
in the production cost, resulting in an inflation.
An economy is in a state of deflationary gap when the resources are not fully
utilised and unemployment still exists.
In Figure 3.17, the AD curve is the real demand curve and ADGTP is the curve
for aggregate demand required at full employment. At aggregate demand AD, the
equilibrium level is at E, which is at income level Y. Therefore, this level is less
than the potential national income level or YF.
Two fiscal policy tools mentioned earlier can be used, namely reducing
government expenditure or increasing taxes.
Change in income, Y = KG G
Change in income, Y = KT T
Change in income, Y = KG G
Change in income, Y = KT T
This means that taxes have to be reduced by RM125 million to close the
inflationary gap.
SELF-CHECK 3.3
EXERCISE 3.4
1. Provide the definition of fiscal policy and state two tools of this
policy.
Injections = Leakages
AD = AS Approach
Approach
Two-sector economy Y=C+I I=S
Three-sector economy Y=C+I+G I+G=S+T
Four-sector economy Y=C+I+G+XăM I+G+X=S+T+M
Fiscal policies that are used to solve inflationary and deflationary gap
problems.
INTRODUCTION
Figure 4.1 summarises the concepts relating to money and the banking system that
will be discussed in this topic.
The first part of this topic explains the definition and widely accepted features of
money as a mode of exchange, followed by a discussion of the four main functions
of money. Besides that, you will also be introduced to the financial institutions and
the banking system in this country regarding their roles and functions. It includes
an explanation on the credit creation process and the monetary policies practised
by central banks. In this country, Bank Negara Malaysia controls the money supply
in the market.
The second part of this topic focuses on money demand, money supply and market
equilibrium along with their association to interest rates. Are you ready to
continue? Let us start the lesson!
How about its functions? Let us find the answer in the following subtopic.
EXERCISE 4.1
1. What is the definition of money?
ACTIVITY 4.1
Visit the official website of Bank Negara Malaysia. Surf the website to
obtain further information about the functions and importance of Bank
Negara at http://www.bnm.gov.my. Share what you found on the
myINSPIRE forum.
Commercial banks are also one of the most important and biggest groups of
financial institutions in a country. Examples of commercial banks in Malaysia
include Malayan Banking Berhad, RHB Bank Bhd and Public Bank Bhd.
Banks will use the money deposited in their current, savings and fixed
deposits to provide loans to clients who require financial assistance. The
banks will charge interest at a certain rate based on the conventional or no
interest banking systems. Banks can also be directly involved in investing in
economic projects.
What are fixed deposits? Fixed deposits are savings for a specific time
period (a month, three months, six months, a year and so forth). The
account holder may withdraw his money before the specified timeline.
The bank also receives savings deposits, upon which interest is paid
by the bank and which can be withdrawn at any time. However, the
accounts have no chequing facilities.
What is a bank draft? A bank draft is a cheque issued by the bank upon
request from a client. A bank draft instructs the bank or one of its
branches to pay a certain sum of money, as stated on the bank draft, to
a specific person.
The characteristics of financial firms are almost the same as savings banks.
These firms allow the public to make two types of savings, namely fixed
deposits and savings deposits.
ACTIVITY 4.2
These principles are supported by Islamic bankingÊs core values whereby activities
that cultivate entrepreneurship, trade and commerce, and bring societal
development or benefit are encouraged. Activities that involve interest (riba),
gambling (maisir) and speculative trading (gharar) are prohibited.
Through the use of various Islamic financial concepts such as sale-based, equity-
based, leasing-based deposit and financing products, for example, murabahah
(mark-up sale), ijarah (leasing), mudharabah (profit sharing) and musyarakah
(partnership), financial institutions have a great deal of flexibility, creativity and
choice in the creation of Islamic financial products. Furthermore, by emphasising
the need for transactions to be supported by genuine trade or business-related
activities, Islamic banking sets a higher standard for investments and promotes
greater accountability and risk mitigation.
(a) Elimination of riba (literally means increase or addition), that is, usury or
rent on money in all forms and intents;
(g) Introduction of safety net mechanisms for the benefit of the poor and the less-
haves through zakat (tithe) or Islamic tax, sadaqah (alms), waqaf (trust) and
qardhasan (benevolent loan);
(h) Upholding universal social, moral and ethical values with emphasis on
maslahah (public interest); and
(i) Achieving Âadalah (justice) and musawah (fairness) in the distribution of
resources.
SELF-CHECK 4.1
After studying the four types of financial institutions, contrast the three
types of financial institutions mentioned with Islamic banking. What are
the obvious differences? Elaborate your answer.
ACTIVITY 4.3
EXERCISE 4.2
1. Explain the function of BNM in controlling and supervising all
financial institutionsÊ activities.
ACTIVITY 4.4
Did you know that credit can be created? Explain the credit creation that
is practised by commercial banks.
In order for the credit creation process to take place, we assume the banking
system has to abide by certain rules:
(a) The required reserve rate (RR) is fixed at 10 per cent of the total deposit (for
all banks);
(c) All transactions are made by cheques. There is no leakage in the banking
system;
(d) There are only two forms of assets, namely cash reserves and loans; and
(e) There are many banks in the economic system and each consumer saves his
money in a different bank.
In order to understand the credit creation process, let us look at Example 4.1:
Example 4.1:
Encik Mohd Akib, a businessman, saves RM1,000 in Bank A. When Bank A
receives this money, it will record this sum as an asset in the form of cash
(RM1,000) and liability in the form of deposits (RM1,000). Asset records show
that the money or property belongs to the bank whereas the deposit records
show the bankÊs liability. The bankÊs balance sheet is shown as follows:
Let us say that Bank A gives its excess reserve amounting to RM900 as loans to
another businessman, Mohd Arif.
After the loan is given, Bank AÊs balance sheet will be as follows:
Mohd Arif receives a cheque from Bank A and he can either deposit the cheque
into the same bank or into another bank, or spend it on goods and services. Let us
say that Mohd Arif buys a TV set from a TV vendor (Encik Vellu) for RM900. Encik
Vellu then deposits the money into Bank B. Bank BÊs balance sheet is shown as
follows:
From the total reserves of RM900, the excess reserves amounting to RM810 has
been loaned to Miss Chin by Bank B because the bank has to retain 10% of the total
reserves as cash reserves (RM90). Bank BÊs balance sheet is shown here after the
loan is given:
After receiving the cheque from Bank B, Miss Chin keeps it in Bank C.
Subsequently the same process takes place, whereby Bank C will give excess
reserve loan totalling 90% of the original deposit. After giving the loan, Bank CÊs
balance sheet will be as follows:
The process will stop when excess reserves become zero. The entire process is
shown in Table 4.1.
As shown in Table 4.1, the total credit created by the banking system multiplies,
depending on the percentage of reserves fixed by the central bank. By fixing the
rate of required reserves at 10%, the credit creation increases 10 fold. Therefore,
money supply in the economy has increased. The total increase of money supply
in the whole banking system can be calculated using this formula:
1
Money Supply (total created deposit) = initial deposit
Reserve rate
1
= 1, 000
10%
= RM10,000
This means that with the rate of required reserve at 10%, the money multiplier has
increased the money supply by 10 fold.
EXERCISE 4.3
If BNM fixes the rate of required reserves at 25% or 0.25 of total deposits:
(a) How much is the deposit multiplier?
(b) How much of money supply can be created with an initial deposit
of RM2,000?
Case 1: Case 2:
The Rate of Cash Required The Rate of Cash Required
Reserves is 10% Reserves is 20%
Initial Deposit is RM100 Initial Deposit is RM100
Money supply 1 1
initial deposit initial deposit
Reserve rate Reserve rate
1 1
100 RM1, 000 100 RM500
10% 20%
Total money = RM1,000 ă RM100 = RM500 ă RM100
created = RM900 = RM400
The example shows that when the rate of required reserves is increased from
10 per cent to 20 per cent, credit creation reduces from RM900 to RM400.
EXERCISE 4.4
1. A bank manager informs you that his bank does not create money,
instead it only gives loans from the money deposited by the bankÊs
clients. How do you explain to him that, in actual fact, the bank
does create money?
ACTIVITY 4.5
Money is needed for our daily existence. But how is the money being
used? What will happen if there is no money system? Discuss.
We know that people demand money for various reasons, for example, when
buying provisions or purchasing a car. According to John Maynard Keynes, a
famous English economist, money demand exists for three main reasons, namely
transaction demands, precautionary motives and speculative demands.
How much money a person holds depends upon the value of the transaction that
is anticipated, the frequency of the transactions and, of course, the personÊs total
income. When the level of income increases, so does the amount of money held for
transaction purposes. On the contrary, when the level of income drops, the amount
of money held for transactions also reduces. Therefore, the quantity of money
demand for transactions is proportional to the income level.
Money demand for transaction purposes is usually considered the main motive
for money demand and it can be planned. Moreover, people will also have to set
aside some money for rainy days, to be used for expenses that cannot be
preplanned. This is known as money demand for precautionary motives.
The speculative process takes place when a person buys shares or bonds at a low
price and sells them at a higher price in the future. For this, the bonds have to be
purchased when the interest rate is highest because the price of bonds will be
lowest at that stage. The bonds should then be sold when the interest rate is lowest
because the price of bonds will be highest at this time. There is an inverse
relationship between interest rates and the price of bonds.
Therefore, when the interest rate is low, it is the perfect time to hold money and
not bonds as the return for the bonds is low.
From this explanation, you can draw a curve showing the negative relationship
between speculative money demand and interest rate (see Figure 4.5).
Based on Figure 4.5, we can see that when the interest rate is low (r 0) the money
demand is M 0. If the interest rate goes up to r 1, then the money demand will
decrease to M 1. Therefore, we can conclude that money demand for speculation
depends on interest rates. When the interest rate is high, people will purchase the
bonds as bonds are cheap at this point in time, and then sell the bonds when the
interest rate is lower, to obtain profits.
Therefore, when the interest rate is high, people hold more bonds and less money.
On the other hand, when the interest rate is low, bonds are more expensive. Thus,
more people will choose to keep their money.
After analysing the three categories of money demand in the economy, we can
come up with the following equation:
Md = Mdt + Mds
(a) Money demand for (b) Money demand for (c) Money demand curve
transactions curve speculations curve
Figure 4.6: Money demand curves
From Figure 4.6(a), M dt is the money demand for transactions curve. This
curve is more of a straight vertical line, which shows that money demand for
transaction purposes is not influenced by interest rates. On the other hand, M ds is
the money demand for speculations curve and goes downwards from left to right
as shown in Figure 4.6(b). This shows that money demand for speculative
purposes depends on interest rates.
Finally, combining both (a) and (b) curves, the money demand curve Md can be
drawn as in Figure 4.6(c).
EXERCISE 4.5
1. What is meant by money demand for precautionary purposes?
2. What factors influence the money demand for precautionary
purposes?
Money supply can be categorised into three components. The components are
shown in Figure 4.7.
Near money refers to savings deposits, money market securities, mutual funds and
certificates of deposit are illiquid assets as they cannot be accepted directly in all
transactions. They will have to be converted to cash before they can be used in
transactions.
Note:
(a) Includes M1 plus private sector savings deposits and fixed deposits in Bank
Negara Malaysia and commercial banks, Bank Negara Malaysia certificates
and certificates of deposit.
(b) Includes cash and currency in circulation and all private sector deposits with
Bank Negara Malaysia, merchant banks and discount companies but not
inclusive of deposits between these financial institutions.
Based on Figure 4.9, M s is the money supply curve and M d is the money demand
curve. When the money supply curve crosses the money demand curve, the
equilibrium level of interest rate in the economy is achieved. We find that r * is the
equilibrium interest rate that makes total money supply equivalent to total money
demand, amounting to M *.
How is the money market maintained so that interest rate stays at equilibrium
level?
To understand this, let us assume that interest rate remains at r 2. At this level,
money supply exceeds money demand. Here, out of the total M * that is supplied,
only M 2 is held by the people. This means there is an excess of money supply,
M * ă M 2. To use up this excess money supply, the public will buy financial assets
such as bonds because bonds can be purchased at a low price when the interest
rate is high (r 2).
Therefore, many people will be tempted to buy bonds when the interest rate is at
r 2. This will increase the demand for bonds and eventually the price of bonds will
increase as well. Since the prices of bonds are inversely related to interest rates, the
interest rate will fall. The interest rate will keep dropping until total money
demand equals total money supplied. Equilibrium of the interest rate at r * will be
achieved.
Now, assume that the interest rate is at r 1, which is a situation when money
demand exceeds money supply. In order to fulfil the increase in money demand,
people will sell their bonds because when the interest rate is low at r 1, the price of
bonds will be higher. Therefore, at this rate (r 1), there exists an excess supply of
bonds which will cause the price of bonds to drop while interest rate to go up. This
interest rate will increase until an equilibrium is formed in the money market,
which means the quantity of money supply equals the quantity of money demand
and the equilibrium of the interest rate is formed at r *.
Therefore, it can be concluded that interest rate equilibrium can be achieved when
money supply equals money demand or when the money supply curve and the
money demand curve overlaps at r *. If there is extra money demand or money
supply, an adjustment will happen until the money demand (M d ) equals money
supply (M s ).
EXERCISE 4.6
2. What happens to the bond market and interest rate when money
supply exceeds money demand?
(b) Assume that the central bank in that country wants to stop
the interest rate from changing. What should be done to the
money supply?
(c) Which monetary policy should the central bank practise (an
expansionary policy or a contractionary policy)? Note that an
expansionary policy increases the total supply of money in
the economy while a contractionary policy decreases the total
money supply.
The central bank in Malaysia is Bank Negara Malaysia. Its functions include:
There are two monetary policies to control and change the quantity of money
supply in the market, namely quantitative policy and qualitative policy.
Money supply is divided into three groups ă narrow measure, broad measure
and broadest measure.
Equilibrium in the money market and interest rate occurs when the money
demand curve and the money supply curve overlaps.
Providing loans;
Islamic Banking and Finance Institute Malaysia (IBFIM). (2019). Retrieved from
http://www.mifc.com/index.php?ch=ch_contents_directory&pg=pg_dir_
provider&ac=571&sec=04
INTRODUCTION
In Topic 3, we discussed the goods market in which the equilibrium level of
aggregate output (Y) is determined. For specific levels of planned investment (I),
government spending (G) and taxes (T), one should be able to determine the
equilibrium level of output in the economy. Also in Topic 4, we have discussed the
money market, in which the equilibrium level of interest rate is determined. These
two markets are actually interrelated, whereby events in both markets have
important effects on each other. By examining the two markets together, we can
determine the value of aggregate output (Y) and interest rate (r) that are consistent
with the existence of equilibrium in both markets.
At the same time, the implementation of fiscal policy and monetary policy will
affect both the money market and the goods market, provided that we analyse
both markets simultaneously. Specifically, we will examine how the monetary
policy affects the equilibrium level of output and income. We will also analyse how
the implementation of fiscal policy affects interest rates and investment spending.
Figure 5.1: The first link ă between income and the demand for money
How about the second link? The second link is between planned investment and
the interest rate. How are they related? In Topic 3, we assumed that the planned
investment is fixed at a certain level, however, in reality investment is not fixed
but depends on several variables. One of the variables is interest rate. When the
interest rate is high, the planned investment level is low. In short, we can say that
the interest rate, which is determined in the money market, will have a significant
influence on the planned investment in the goods market. This relationship can be
simplified in Figure 5.2.
Figure 5.2: The second link ă between planned investment and the interest rate
Further explanations of the link between the goods market and the money market
is given in the following subtopics. Let us continue!
ACTIVITY 5.1
Compare two links between the goods market and the money market.
(a) (b)
Figure 5.3: Money market equilibrium
Figure 5.3 shows how the money market achieves equilibrium. It shows the
relationship between interest rate and quantity of money. For Figure 5.3(a), at
point E 1, the money market is in equilibrium, where Md = Ms at r = 5%. When
there is an increase in aggregate output (Y), the demand for money will increase.
The money demand curve shifts to the right as shown in Figure 5.3(b). At an
interest rate of 5%, there is an excess demand for money and the interest rate will
rise from 5% to 8%.
Obviously, we can see that the equilibrium level of interest rate is not determined
solely in the money market but also in the goods market. An increase in aggregate
output (Y) shifts the money demand curve and, therefore, leads to a change in the
interest rate.
(a) (b)
Figure 5.4: Relationship between investment and income
As can be seen in Figure 5.4(a), the relationship between the interest rate and
planned investment is a downward-sloping curve. The higher the interest rate,
the lower the level of planned investment. At an interest rate of 5%, planned
investment is I 0. When the interest rate falls from 5% to 2%, planned investment
increases from I 0 to I 1. When the interest rate increases from 5% to 8%, planned
investment falls from I 0 to I 2.
From here we can see how planned investment, which depends on the interest
rate, affects planned aggregate spending (which is the sum of consumption,
planned investment and government spending). As mentioned earlier, when the
interest rate changes, planned investment also changes and, therefore, leads to a
change in aggregate planned expenditure.
Obviously, we can see that the equilibrium level of output (Y) is not determined
solely by events in the goods market but also in the money market. Changes in the
money market affect the interest rate level, which in turn affects planned
investment in the goods market.
SELF-CHECK 5.1
After discussing the relationship between the goods market and the
money market, what do you think will be the effect of increasing
investment spending?
Firstly, we will discuss fiscal policy and see what will happen when the
government implements expansionary fiscal policy and contractionary fiscal
policy.
Secondly, we will discuss monetary policy and analyse the impact on the
economy when the government implements expansionary monetary policy and
contractionary monetary policy.
As you may recall from Topic 4, the multiplier effect for the government
spending is 1/(1 ă MPC) while the multiplier effect for tax is MPC/(1 ă MPC).
To help us see it more clearly, let us say there is an increase in government
spending (G) of RM20 million. An increase in government spending
causes firmsÊ inventories to be less than the planned investment. When this
happens, production and output increase. An increase in output means that
income will also increase and this results in an increase in consumption
spending and savings. Once again, inventories will be smaller than planned
and output will definitely increase even more. At the end, the equilibrium
level of output will be higher and it is a multiple effect of the initial increase
in government spending or ΔG 1/(1 ă MPC).
At the same time, an increase in interest rate (r) will create a side effect
where a higher interest rate will cause planned investment (I) to decrease.
An increase in government spending (G) increases planned aggregate
expenditure (C + I + G) and this leads to an increase in aggregate output (Y).
The crowding out effect can be seen in Figure 5.5. An increase in government
spending from G 0 to G 1 shifts the planned aggregate expenditure upward
from (C + I + G 0) to (C + I + G 1). The new equilibrium point is at E 1,
and income increases from Y 0 to Y 1. This causes the money demand to
increase and the money market will be in disequilibrium, as can be seen in
Figure 5.5(a). The increase in money demand raises the interest rate (r) from
r 0 to r 1 and investment will decrease from I 0 to I 1. With lower investment,
the new planned aggregate expenditure shifts downward and the
equilibrium level of income will be at point E 2 ă Y 2.
(a) (b)
Figure 5.5: Crowding out effect
However, the crowding out effect depends on the sensitivity of the planned
investment spending to the changes in the interest rate, as can be seen in
Figure 5.6. If the planned investment is sensitive to changes in the interest
rate, the crowding out effect will be larger. On the other hand, if it is not
sensitive at all, there will be no crowding out effect.
(a) (b)
Figure 5.6: Crowding out effects depends on the sensitivity of the
planned investment spending
EXERCISE 5.1
1. Discuss how the crowding out effect occurs.
ACTIVITY 5.2
In other words,
Policy mix is the combination of fiscal and monetary policies in use at a given
time to achieve certain objectives, that is, to increase the output (Y) while
keeping the interest rate (r) constant.
ACTIVITY 5.3
The goods market and the money market operate interdependently. Any
events in the goods market will affect the money market and vice versa.
There are two important links between the goods market and the money
market:
ă the level of income (Y), which is determined in the goods market, will
determine the volume of transactions during each period and, therefore,
affects the money demand (Md) in the money market; and
ă the interest rate, which is determined in the money market, affects the level
of planned investment in the goods market.
Planned investment and the interest rate are negatively related as interest rate
determines the cost of investment projects.
Policy G T Ms
Expansionary Fiscal Policy Ę ę
Contractionary Fiscal Policy ę Ę
Expansionary Monetary Policy Ę
Contractionary Monetary Policy ę
INTRODUCTION
In earlier topics, you were introduced to supply and demand. Knowledge about
factors that affect or influence money demand and money supply is important so
that you can understand their effects on interest rate, investment and national
income. This topic will explain the concept of aggregate demand (AD) and
aggregate supply (AS) and the related issues. Let us look at Figure 6.1 for a
summary of what we will learn in this topic.
Aggregate demand is the total demand for goods and services in the economy
during a specific time period.
Usually, aggregate demand is shown using a curve or table that shows the various
types of goods and services (real production) that are collectively purchased by
consumers at a certain price level.
Although both the aggregate demand curve (AD) and aggregate market curve
look the same, the factors that cause the curves to slope downwards are different.
The market demand curve slopes negatively because of the substitution effect and
income effect. The factors that cause the aggregate demand curve to slope
negatively are shown in Figure 6.2.
Figure 6.2: Three factors underlying the negative slope of the AD curve
Now, let us look at the important explanation on the factors that make the
aggregate demand curve slope negatively.
Having money also refers to wealth and the amount of bonds, shares,
houses or physical assets one possesses. The amount of wealth owned
depends on the price level.
Example 6.1:
If Ahmad has RM5,000 and the price level has increased by 10 per cent,
then the value of AhmadÊs money has decreased by 10 per cent because
the price of the goods he wishes to buy has gone up by 10 per cent.
Therefore, an increase in price causes the purchasing power to drop. This
will indirectly reduce consumption and production. Thus, the real-
balance effect brings about a negative relationship between price and
production. However, if the increase in general pricing is the same as the
increase in share prices or properties prices, that means the real value of
the shares and properties have not changed.
For example, in Figure 6.3, when the price goes up, money demand will move
up from M d0 to M d1. Assuming money supply M s is fixed, the interest rate
will increase from r 0 to r 1.
The change in interest rate will affect the consumption by households and
firms. For example, say the interest rate is 15 per cent per annum. At the same
time, the rate of returns that firms obtain from capital purchase is 20 per cent.
This definitely allows firms to reap some profits because the investment
returns exceed the interest rates. This will encourage firms to increase
investment. If the reverse were to happen, with the interest rate at 15 per cent
and the rate of returns only at 10 per cent, firms will reduce their investments.
This decision will induce them reduce their production too.
From the explanation, it can be concluded that the aggregate demand curve (AD)
is not a combination of individual demand curves. The AD curve has a negative
slope because of the real-balance effect, interest rate effect and net-export effect.
At every point along the AD curve, the demanded quantity is the same as the
aggregate expenditure [C + I + G + (X ă M )].
In the analysis on how to draw the AD curve, we have to assume that the fiscal
policy and monetary policy are fixed.
In Figure 6.5, (a) shows the money market, (b) shows the investment curve that
reflects the negative relationship between interest rates and investment levels,
(c) is the aggregate expenditure model or market for goods and (d) is the aggregate
demand curve that shows the inverse relationship between prices and quantity of
production demanded.
Therefore, the M d0 curve will shift to M d1, creating an increase in money demand,
assuming that money supply is fixed. In order to achieve equilibrium in the money
market, the interest rate increases to r 1. The subsequent increase in interest rate
will bring down investments to I 1. The same goes for consumption and net
exports. This situation is shown by the shift AE0 to AE1 (P 1) and the decrease in
production level to Y 1 (Figure 6.5(c)).
If the price level goes down to P 2, the opposite will happen. The production
level will go up to Y 2 at the equilibrium point E 2 as shown in Figure 6.5(c). In
Figure 6.5(d), if the points a, b and c are joined, a negatively-sloped AD curve
can be seen, which shows an inverse relationship between price and production
level (Y).
We can summarise that an increase in price level will cause the AE curve to shift
downwards and a reduction in production Y. On the contrary, a decrease in price
will cause AE to shift upwards and an increase in production Y.
(iv) Taxes.
Reminder: This concept differs from the concepts in wealth and real-
balance because here, the AD curve changes when there is a change
in price.
The change in real wealth does not depend on a price change but on
non-price factors that cause the shifts in the AD curve. For example,
reduction in price or in the real value of a house will decrease the
consumerÊs economic condition although the price level does not
increase.
(iv) Taxes
Income tax is a leakage in consumer income. The hike in the income tax
rate will reduce peopleÊs disposable income. This phenomenon will
cause a drop in expenditure and the AD curve will move to the left.
(v) Technology.
Factor Explanation
Interest rate An increase in the interest rate due to reasons other than
pricing will cause the AD curve to shift. For instance, a hike
in money supply will cause the interest rate to drop. This
phenomenon will create an increase in investment. Therefore,
the AD curve will move to the right while the reverse situation
will cause it to move to the left.
Expected returns High returns from an investment project means profits to
from investment firms. If the expected returns are high, then firms will increase
projects the investment by buying capital goods. This will increase the
firmsÊ expenditure and the AD curve to shift to the right. The
reverse situation will cause the curve move to the left.
Business tax Business tax is a leakage to firms. The high rate of business tax
will reduce profit after tax. This factor will eventually decrease
the incentives for firms to increase investment. Therefore,
reducing the firmÊs expenditure and the AD curve will move
to the left, and vice versa.
Level of excess This refers to excess production resources that are not used.
capacity Higher excess capacity will slow down the demand for new
capital goods and reduce the aggregate demand as shown by
the shift of the AD curve to the left. If the firm collectively finds
that capacity level is low, it will increase its purchase of capital
goods and build new premises. This will increase the firmÊs
expenditure and the AD curve will move to the right.
Technology The discovery of new technology will increase investment
expenditure and hike up the aggregate expenditure (AD curve
will move to the right). For instance, with the discovery of new
technology in the automobile industry, more money will be
invested in this industry. This phenomenon will cause the AD
curve to move to the right.
Table 6.2: Factors Other than Price that Cause Changes in Exports
Factors Explanation
Foreign income When the income of foreigners are high, their demand for
domestic or foreign goods will be relatively high too. The
increase in demand for foreign goods will increase the exports
of the exporter country (assuming that exporter country
imports less). The increase in net exports is shown in the shift
of the AD curve to the right. If the incomes in foreign
countries are low, net exports will decrease and the AD curve
will move to the left.
Foreign currency Changes in foreign currency exchange rates also influence
exchange net exports and aggregate demand (AD). Let us use the
exchange rate between Ringgit Malaysia and American Dollar
(exchange rate, E = RM/Dollar) as an example. If the value of
the Ringgit deteriorates, the rate of exchange will increase.
Americans can get more Ringgit for each Dollar whereas
Malaysians will get lesser amount of Dollar. The deterioration
in the value of the Ringgit will make Malaysian goods appear
relatively cheaper compared to American goods. Therefore,
MalaysiaÊs net exports will increase (assuming that our
imports are less than our exports). This phenomenon will
move the AD curve to the right. The reverse situation will
make the curve move the other way.
From this discussion, we can now conclude that the price factor will cause changes
along the aggregate demand curve (AD), which means changes in the production
quantity demanded. Subsequently, factors other than price, namely aggregate
expenditure components such as consumption (C), investment (I), government
purchases or expenditure (G) and net exports (X ă M) will cause the AD curve to
shift either to the left or right.
From Figure 6.7, we assume the original equilibrium is at AE0, which produces real
production (Y) at Y 0, and the AD curve is AD0. If investors are optimistic and
expect profits to increase in the future, the investment level will increase as well.
This is shown by the movement of the curve AE0 to AE1, with the price fixed at P 0
and the new production level is achieved at Y 1. In line with this, the AD curve also
moves to the right to AD1.
The actual increase in investment is shown by the AD curve shifting from AD0 to
the dotted line. However, the multiplier process has caused AD to move to AD1
and production to increase from Y 0 to Y 1. Therefore, the rise in investment will
shift the AD curve to the right. The distance between AD0 and AD1 is the increase
in investment (I) times the multiplier value k (I k). Therefore, the movement of
AE and AD is towards the same direction, or simply,
Besides the mentioned factors, any change in the supply of money (Ms) also causes
the aggregate demand (AD) to shift either to the right or to the left from AD0 to
AD1 or AD2 as in the previous Figure 6.7.
For example, if there is an increase in the money supply and the price level is
constant, the interest rate will fall and this induces planned investment.
Subsequently, planned aggregate expenditure will also increase. The AD curve
then shifts from AD0 to AD1.
Aggregate supply means the total of real production of final goods and
services available in the economy.
The AS curve is reflected in a table or curve that shows the real production level
(Y) that is produced and supplied by the firms at various price levels while other
factors remain fixed (ceteris paribus). However, the AS curve is not a combination
of individual supply curves in the economy.
Figure 6.8(a) shows the nominal wage curve with the price level on the vertical
axis while Figure 6.8(b) shows the labour market with labour demand and labour
supply curves; Figure 6.8(c) shows the production function curve and Figure 6.8(d)
shows the aggregate supply curve.
When the price level is at P 2, the real wage rate is at (W 0/P 2), which is lower than
before. Therefore, demand for labour will be higher. With the assumption that
nominal wage is rigid downwards and not upwards, nominal wage will increase
until (W 0/P 2) = (W 0/P 0). The number of workers that will be employed is L0
and output that will be produced is Y 0. Therefore, at P = P 1, Y is at Y 1 and when
P = P 2, Y is at Y 0. When we join all the points, we will obtain the aggregate supply
curve.
However, the aggregate supply curve will have a different shape depending
on the assumptions made, for example, the classical case or Keynesian case as
described in the following subtopics.
Figure 6.9 shows the three parts of the AS curve. How can this situation exist?
This level also shows the position when the production quantity is reduced.
However, the production price level and input does not decline. This means
that production and employment may reduce but the price of input and
production may be difficult to change.
Besides the price factor, other factors that can cause the AS curve to shift either to
the left or right are:
(b) Productivity;
(d) Environment.
(b) Productivity
Productivity measures the average real production (total production divided
by total input). An increase in productivity means the economy enjoys a large
amount of real production based on limited resources. For example, a firm
would like to produce 10 units of production. If you need a total input of five
units at RM2 per unit, the productivity and average costs are calculated as
follows:
Total production
Productivity
Total input
10
2
5
Total cost
Average cost
Total production
RM2 5
10
RM1
If the firm intends to increase production to 20 units at the same price and
unit input, the productivity value is four, that is, 20/5 and the cost per unit
is RM0.50. Therefore, productivity increases from two to four and production
cost reduces from RM1 to RM0.50. This means productivity doubles and
production cost per unit drops by half. This situation will cause the AS curve
to shift to the right. On the other hand, if productivity drops, the reverse will
happen.
(ii) Regulations
It is normal for the government to control the production of certain
products. In order to comply with government regulations, firms are
forced to allocate some money to carry out control activities. For
instance, each firm is required to form a quality control unit. This will
increase the firmÊs cost of operations and the AS curve will shift to the
left.
(d) Environment
Let us learn about the final determinant, which is the environmental factor.
Environment includes weather, natural disasters and wars. For example,
during the monsoon season, fishermen cannot go out to sea. This will cause
a reduction in seafood supply, as shown in the movement of the AS curve to
the left in Figure 6.10. Instead, when there is no monsoon season, supply will
increase and the AS curve will shift to the right. The shift to the right is from
AS0 to AS1, whereas the shift to the left is from AS0 to AS2.
SELF-CHECK 6.1
Price can affect the aggregate supply curve (AS). Can you identify factors
other than price that might affect the AS curve?
Equilibrium happens at the point where the AD curve and AS curve meet as
illustrated Figure 6.11.
Equilibrium price and production is achieved at Pe and Ye. If the price level
exceeds Pe, for example, if it is at P 1, then there will be excess aggregate supply
amounting to Y 0Y 1. At this price level, consumers only demand Y 0 but firms
supply Y 1. This situation will force the price level to fall again to equilibrium price
Pe.
If the price level is lower than Pe, for instance, if it is at P 2, then there will be an
excess demand totalling Y 0Y 1. At a price lower than the equilibrium price, the
quantity demanded is higher than the quantity supplied. This phenomenon will
force the price level to rise towards the equilibrium price, Pe. The equilibrium for
both price and production is achieved at the point where the AD curve and the AS
curve meet, which is at price Pe and production Ye.
Figure 6.12: Movement of the aggregate demand curve (AD) from AD0 to AD1
Figure 6.13: Movement of the aggregate demand curve (AD) from AD2 to AD3
Figure 6.14: Movement of the aggregate demand curve (AD) from AD4 to AD5
Look at Figure 6.14. Let us assume that the original equilibrium at the vertical
section as AD4 and AS0 (P 4 and Y 4). The increase in government expenditure
will cause the AD curve to shift to AD5 and the price level will increase to P 5
but the production level will remain at Y 4 (production at full employment).
If the reverse happens (AD decreases), the AD curve shift to the left. In
conclusion, it can be seen that a shift of the AD curve will bring about
changes in price and quantity. However, the final effect depends on the
section of the AS curve which overlaps the AD curve as illustrated in
Table 6.3.
Table 6.3: Final Effect on the Section of AS Curve which overlaps the AD Curve
We assume that the original equilibrium is at AS0 and AD0 (P 0 and Y 0). If
there is an increase in technology or productivity, the AS curve will shift to
AS1. This phenomenon will cause an increase in production level to Y 1 and
a decrease in price to P 1.
If the reverse happens, for example, the rise in production costs will shift
the AS curve to the left to AS2. The effect of this is an increase in price to P 2
and decrease in production to Y 2.
In the horizontal and vertical sections, the effect is the same. A shift of AS
to the right brings a hike in production and a price drop. Conversely, when
AS shifts to the left, the price will go up and production will drop.
ACTIVITY 6.1
Fiscal policy is divided into two types, namely expansionary policy and
contractionary policy. Expansionary policy will shift the AD curve to the right
whereas contractionary policy will move the AD curve to the left. This
phenomenon will eventually change the equilibrium price level and production
quantity.
The effects of a fiscal or monetary policy can be analysed based on Figure 6.17.
Assume the economy is short-term and the original equilibrium is at AD0 and AS0
(P 0 and Y 0) at the upward sloping section, or in other words, the economy has not
achieved full employment.
If expansionary monetary or fiscal policy is carried out, the AD curve will shift to
the right from AD0 to AD1. Price and production will increase to P 1 and Y 1. On the
contrary, contractionary fiscal policy will shift the AD curve to the left from AD0
to AD2. Price level and production will drop to P 2 and Y 2.
If the economy operates at full employment, at the vertical section of the AS curve,
the effects of the fiscal policy will differ. Look at Figure 6.18, assume the original
equilibrium is at AS0 and AD4 (P 4 and Y 4). Expansionary fiscal policy (assuming
that the monetary policy is fixed) will move the AD curve to the right to AD5. This
expansion will not cause an increase in output because all resources have been
used for production. Therefore, expansionary budget policy, which is the shift of
AD4 curve to AD5, with a fixed monetary policy will cause a hike in interest rates.
An increase in interest rate will reduce investment and eventually there will be a
drop in production level (Y). When there is an increase in government expenditure
(G) and at the same time there is a same amount of decrease in investment (I), there
will be no change in production level. The final effect is an increase in price from
P 4 to P 5 but production is fixed at Y 4.
The construction of the long-run aggregate supply curve can be analysed based on
Figure 6.20.
When real production exceeds potential production, the actual unemployment rate
will be lower than the natural unemployment rate. Therefore, there will be
overtime for labour and capital costs. Since the price in the short-run is more than
the expected price, the nominal fee at expected price P 0 drops. Besides this, when
real production exceeds potential production, the pressure of inflation begins to
set in. The more the short-run production exceeds the potential production, the
expansionary gap becomes bigger and the pressure for price increase also rises.
What is meant by „long-run‰? Long-run is the period when firms and resource
suppliers (production factors) know the market situation, specifically the aggregate
demand and real price level. Firms and resource suppliers have time to bargain
based on the actual price. The price hike to P 1 will drag down the value of real
nominal fee. Employees will now bargain with the firms to obtain a higher fee. If
this process succeeds, it will increase the firmsÊ production costs.
The increase in costs will shift the AS curve to AS1, to the left, (assuming that the
increase in price is adjusted by the cost hike at the same rate). The new equilibrium
is achieved at AD1 and AS1 (P 2 and Y 0). At this new equilibrium (point c), only
the price is found to have increased but the production remains the same at Y 0 and
the real price is the same as the expected price. Therefore, this equilibrium is for
both the short-run and long-run.
A low nominal fee rate will reduce the firmÊs production costs. This is shown by
the movement of the AS curve to the right to AS2. The new equilibrium is achieved
at point e (AS2 and AD2). The price level drops to P 4 and production falls back to
potential production (drop in price equals drop in fee level). Since the expected
price is the same as the real price, the short-run and long-run equilibrium are both
at point e.
(a) The real price level equals the expected price level; and
(b) Production quantity demanded and supplied in the short-run is the same as
that in the long-run.
EXERCISE 6.1
Aggregate demand is the total demand for goods and services by consumers
in an economy.
Factors that cause the aggregate demand curve to slope negatively are real-
balance effect, interest rate effect and net-export effect.
Aggregate supply curve can be divided into three sections, namely horizontal
(Keynesian), upward sloping and vertical (classical). Aggregate supply is
determined by input price, productivity, government policy and environment.
The long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical because in the long run
adjustments will be made.
INTRODUCTION
Now we come to a new topic on unemployment and inflation. Did you know that
when individuals evaluate the economic activity level, they not only look at the
countryÊs production or output but also at other factors as well? These other factors
are national production, and information on unemployment and inflation, factors
which are also important to determine the economic activity of a country.
Based on that, let us learn more about unemployment and inflation in this topic.
Are you ready? Let us start the lesson!
7.1 UNEMPLOYMENT
Are you currently working or are you still in the process of looking for a job?
Are you a homemaker or a university student? We often hear the term
„unemployment‰ being mentioned but how much do we understand about its
actual meaning?
In order for you to understand the concept of unemployment, several factors that
are related to unemployment will be discussed at length. The population of a
country is divided into two, namely:
(b) Others (this includes those who are too young to work, those who are ill or
cannot work).
Working age group means the number of persons who are 16 years old
and above, who are eligible to work and those with certain obligation or
difficulties such as, those who are serving the sentence in prison, ill (health
matters) etc.
As summarised in Figure 7.1, the working age group is divided into two
categories, namely those who are not in the labour force and those who are in the
labour force. Those who are not in the labour force include mostly full-time
students, housewives, retirees, sick patients and prisoners inmates. The working
age group can be simplified as:
Working age group = Those who are not in the labour force + those who are
in the labour force
Those who are in the labour force can also be divided into two categories, namely
those who are employed and those who are not. What can we conclude about
unemployment?
In the context of economics, unemployed refers to those who are not working
but are actively looking for jobs.
Figure 7.2 shows the unemployment rate in Malaysia from 2011 to 2018.
Number of unemployed
Unemployment rate ï 100
Labour force
Based on the information from Figure 7.3, the unemployment rate in Country X in
2019 is:
0.35 million
Unemployment rate 100 = 3.54%
0.35 million + 9.54 million
EXERCISE 7.1
Labour force participation rate measures the percentage of the working age
group population who are in the labour force group.
Labour force
Labour force participation rate ï 100
Working age g roup population
A discouraged worker will usually make excuses to say that he has tried to look
for a job but is disappointed or feels that the current labour market is not good.
Therefore, any efforts to look for a job will be unfruitful.
Since a discouraged worker has not made any efforts to look for a job in the last
four weeks, census will classify him as a discouraged worker and not as an
unemployed person. Therefore, this group of workers is not included in the labour
force. Some parties if of the opinion that discouraged workers should be classified
as unemployed persons in order to give a more accurate picture of the labour force
situation.
ACTIVITY 7.1
Part-time workers are those who work less than 35 hours a week.
Part-time workers can be divided into two categories, namely those who work
part-time due to economic factors and those who do so due to non-economic
factors. Table 7.1 shows the difference between these two categories.
Table 7.1: Differences between Part-time Workers Due to Economic Factors and
Non-economic Factors
EXERCISE 7.2
ACTIVITY 7.2
Assume that you are a part-time worker. You are not tied down by any
long-term contract and you get good payments from working for several
different companies. One day, you are offered a full-time job with one of
the companies at which you are working part-time with. What are the
factors that will assist you on how to decide? What would be your
decision? Share what you found on the myINSPIRE forum.
Sometimes people are willing to be unemployed while waiting to get another job
and not because they are unable to look for a job.
Frictional unemployment continues to exist at all times, mostly when the economy
is having continuous rapid growth. This type of unemployment also exists even
when the economy is at full employment.
When there is a recession, demand for goods and services will decrease. This will
force firms to reduce their production and thus, cut down on their labour
requirements.
For instance, when recession hit the Asian region in 1998 because of the currency
crisis, many workers had to be laid off. In order to overcome unemployment
caused by private sector demands, the government had to increase expenditure
through a fiscal policy. The increase in government expenditure was aimed at
creating new job opportunities and subsequently, reducing the unemployment rate.
SELF-CHECK 7.1
For each description in the table below, write down the corresponding
type of unemployment.
Full employment is achieved when the real unemployment rate is the same as the
natural unemployment rate. This means, when the real unemployment rate of a
country at a specific time only consists of structural and frictional unemployment,
the country is said to have achieved full employment. In other words, cyclical
unemployment does not exist at full employment level.
EXERCISE 7.3
A job loser is someone who has been involuntarily terminated or laid off from
a job, regardless if it is temporarily or permanently.
There are many reasons for this, for example, failure of the worker to fulfil his work
requirements or conditions, or the firmÊs failure to fulfil its employeesÊ needs.
Those who have lost their jobs have two choices ă to look for a new job or leave
the labour force. Those who leave the labour force are not considered unemployed.
ACTIVITY 7.3
Think of the psychological effects on a person who has lost his job. What
are the pressures and problems that he is likely to face? Who can he
discuss this problem with?
New entrants are those who have just completed their studies and are ready
to join the workforce.
New entrants have never been employed before and are actively seeking
employment for the first time. However, while looking for a suitable job, they
remain unemployed.
Re-entrants are those who had previously been classified as employed but
have been out of the labour force for a period of time before actively seeking
employment once again.
Usually, they are considered to be unemployed while trying to look for a new job.
ACTIVITY 7.4
Are you aware that some graduates are very choosy about the types of
jobs that they will do? They would like to hold a high position and/or
insist on being paid a lot higher than the market rate despite not having
any experience. What is your opinion about this scenario? State your
opinion in myINSPIRE online forum.
Drop in government When people are unemployed, tax collection is also reduced. As
revenue a result, the government has to reduce its expenditure to boost
economic growth.
Wastage of A high rate of unemployment forces the economy to operate at
production resources a level that is below maximum. The wastage of resources
resulted in output production that is far lower than the
potential output.
EXERCISE 7.4
7.10 INFLATION
Inflation generally refers to continued increase in general price levels. General
price reflects the price level for all goods and services that exist in the economy at
any given time. Do you know the method used in Malaysia to measure the general
price level? It can be derived from the definition of inflation.
EXERCISE 7.5
1. Price hikes are always related to inflation. However, not all price
hikes reflect the presence of inflation. Describe the situation where
price hikes can be an indication of inflation.
2. What are the main components in the consumer basket for the
Malaysian CPI?
(a) Calculate the cost of CPI consumer basket at base year price;
(b) Calculate the cost of CPI consumer basket at current year price; and
(c) Calculate the CPI for base year and current year.
Consumer Basket
Cost of Basket
Item Quantity Price
Apple 10 RM0.50/pc RM5.00
Rice 5 RM1.00/kg RM5.00
Cost of CPI basket at base year price RM10.00
Based on the information in Table 7.4, the consumer spent RM5 on apples and RM5
on rice. The total consumer expenditure for that particular year was RM10.
CPI Basket
Cost of CPI Basket
Item Quantity Price
Apple 10 RM0.60/fruit RM6.00
Rice 5 RM1.10/kg RM5.50
Cost of CPI basket at current year price RM11.50
Overall, the consumer spent RM11.50 to purchase the same amount of apples and
rice. RM6 was spent on apples and RM5.50 was spent on rice.
10
CPI for year 2018 100 100
10
11.50
CPI for year 2019 100 115
10
Based on the CPI that has been calculated, it can be concluded that the average
price of goods and services for the year 2019 is 15 per cent higher than for the year
2018.
For instance, the CPI value in 2019 is 115. The CPI value in 2018 is 100. Based on
this information, the inflation rate in 2019 can be measured as follows:
115 100
Inflation rate for 2018 100
100
15%
Conclusively, the average price of the consumer basket in 2019 is 15% higher than
in 2018. In order to obtain the same quantity of goods as in 2018, consumers have
to increase their spending by 15%.
EXERCISE 7.6
Besides that, inflation also encourages people to use their savings to purchase
shares and assets such as properties. This is because during inflation, prices of
assets are prone to increase. The increase in price level also encourages firms to
start new investments because of the increased profits. This usually happens when
the economy is expanding.
Those who are fond of saving money (either in savings account or through
purchase of government bonds) will also suffer losses. The interest rates received
on their savings could be lower than the inflation rate.
Those who make money when inflation hits are businessmen. During this time,
they will increase the price at a higher rate compared to the rate of increase in
production costs. This situation allows businessmen to obtain higher profits.
Inflation also brings profits to those who own shares and permanent assets such
as houses and buildings. Shareholders will get higher returns when the company
makes profits. Those who own properties such as land and houses will get more
profits because the price of property will be higher during inflation periods.
Inflation also causes uneven distribution of income between those who borrowed
money and those who lent out money. Those who borrowed will reap some
benefits because the actual value of the repayment will deteriorate. Although the
amount repaid will be the same, the actual value of the sum (measured based on
quantity of goods that can be purchased) has decreased. Therefore, those who lent
out money will suffer some losses because the same amount now has a lower
purchasing power.
However, if other factors do not change, the rise in export price and a drop in
import price of a country will create better trade conditions. This means that with
the same export quantity, the country can obtain higher import quantity. This
situation happens only if the demand to export the countryÊs goods remains fixed.
However, the usage of CPI in measuring living costs does not reflect the
consumerÊs complete standard of living. This is because the CPI has some
problems and weaknesses.
The six problems and weaknesses of CPI are listed in Figure 7.7. Meanwhile
Table 7.6 provides explanations to these problems and weaknesses.
ACTIVITY 7.5
You have studied the concept of inflation. Think about these questions
for a moment: In what situations can inflation happen. As a consumer,
how would you react to inflation?
This inflation happens when excess demand at full employment level causes an
increase in the average price. Referring to Figure 7.9, the increase in demand from
AD to ADÊ at full employment output level (Y*) causes a price hike from P to PÊ.
For example, when workersÊ union demands a salary hike, this will increase the
firmÊs production costs. The increase in costs will decrease supply at every price
level. Let us refer to Figure 7.10.
The increase in costs will cause the supply curve to move left from AS to ASÊ and
price to increase from P to PÊ. This situation will continue because an increase in
the price of goods will cause a drop in an individualÊs real income.
Increase in demand causes prices to go up and this will trigger inflation to occur.
Inflation due to this psychological factor is called adaptive expectation inflation.
In 1950s and 1960s, there was a smooth relationship between inflation and
unemployment rate and most people relied on the Phillips curve as the main
explanation for inflation. However, in 1970s and 1980s, apparently there
was no particular relationship between inflation and unemployment since the
curve did not show a negative relationship between the two variables, unlike in
the past. Based on this, can we conclude that there was no trade-off between
inflation and unemployment? Not necessarily. This is because we can see that
other factors besides unemployment also affect inflation. Changes in any factors
such as real purchasing power by consumers, cost of factors of production,
income of consumers etc. can also affect the relationship between inflation and
unemployment.
In the context of economics, unemployed refers to those who are not working
but are actively looking for jobs.
The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the labour force who are
not working or [(Number of unemployed/Labour force) 100].
There are three main reasons for being unemployed ă job losers, job leavers as
well as new entrants and re-entrants.
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure that is used to track changes in
prices of goods and services purchased by households, also known as the
consumer basket.
There are three main steps in the calculation of CPI. Firstly, calculate the cost
of the CPI consumer basket at base year price. Secondly, calculate the cost of
CPI consumer basket at current year price and finally, calculate the CPI for
base year and current year.
There are four main effects of inflation. They are effects on total production,
effects on savings and investment, effects on income distribution and economic
wealth, and effects on the countryÊs balance of payments.
This trade-off between inflation and unemployment can be explained using the
Phillips curve.
INTRODUCTION
Do you realise that most of us are involved in international trade? For example, if
you walk into an international coffee shop like The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf, where
you are able to buy Maui Blend or Tanzania Peaberry coffee, you are experiencing
the effects of international trade.
A country does not only produce goods for local consumption, some of the
products are exported to other countries. Goods that cannot be produced locally
are imported from other countries. This process of exchanging goods or sale-
purchase transaction for goods and services between two or more countries is
called international trade.
Generally, there are four main factors that encourage international trade between
one country and another (see Figure 8.1).
For instance, countries that have capital and high technological knowledge
such as Japan and the United States of America will focus on industrial products.
Figure 8.2 shows an example of the automobile industry which requires high
capital and technology.
Countries that are rich in natural resources like Malaysia and China will focus on
producing main goods, for example, oil, gas and so on. Because each country
produces different types of goods, each country will carry out international trade
to obtain goods that are not produced locally.
The cold climate in Australia and New Zealand allows both these countries to
focus on the production of fruits like apples and oranges. Thus, different climates
result in the production of different goods. The difference in agricultural produce
encourages countries to trade with one another. Figure 8.4 shows grapes ă one of
the fruits planted in countries with temperate climates.
Figure 8.4: Grapes are among the fruits produced in countries with temperate climates
Source: http://tourcoverage.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/
ACTIVITY 8.1
Much of the current labour force in Malaysia is from other countries such
as Indonesia, Vietnam, India and Philippines. What is the effect of these
foreign workers on our local skills and expertise in respect to the job
market?
EXERCISE 8.1
Table 8.1 clearly shows that country X is more efficient at producing oranges while
Country Y is better at producing apples. This means, each country has an absolute
advantage. What does absolute advantage mean?
Assume 30 oranges are exchanged for 10 apples. What will happen to Country Y
if all the resources are utilised to produce apples and exchange them with the
oranges produced by Country X?
At this rate, Country Y will get 60 oranges, which means it will get 10 more fruits
than if it were to produce the oranges itself. Besides that, Country X also benefits
from this specialisation. Through this trade, Country X exchanges 60 oranges for
20 apples. Besides still having a remainder of 40 oranges, Country X also receives
10 more apples than if it had produced the apples itself.
With the same resources by both countries, Country X can produce 100 oranges
and zero apples or 10 apples zero oranges, while Country Y can produce
50 oranges and zero apples or 20 apples and zero oranges. All other points on the
production possibility line are possible combinations of the two goods that can be
produced given current resources. Point A on both graphs is where the countries
start producing and consuming before trade. Point B is where they end up after
trade. Country X will export 60 units of orange and import 20 units of apples. As
for Country Y will export 20 units of apples and import 60 units of oranges. This
example shows that both the countries benefited from the trade. There is no reason
for the benefits to be equally divided. Instead, both countries obtained more goods
after the trade. By specialising in the production of one product, and carrying out
trade, both the countries obtained more goods than they would have if they had
produced both the goods themselves.
In another example, let us assume that two countries, M and R, produce two types
of goods but the output quantity is different. Table 8.2 shows the quantity of goods
that can be produced using the same specified quantity of resources.
Table 8.2 shows that Country M can produce 100 oranges or 20 apples. Country R
can produce 30 oranges or 10 apples. It is noted that Country M has an absolute
advantage over Country R for the production of both oranges and apples. In this
situation, is it necessary for the countries to specialise and trade with one another?
Assume that trade is agreed upon at the rate of 40 oranges to 10 apples. Although
Country R does not have absolute advantage, if it produces 10 apples, then it can
exchange them for 40 oranges. The oranges it gets will definitely be more than the
quantity it is able to produce on its own. However, Country M can afford to let go
of 10 apples to produce 50 more oranges and exchange 40 oranges to obtain
10 apples. In this manner, country M gets 10 more oranges. This situation can also
be demonstrated using diagrams (see Figure 8.6).
This shows that although a country does not have absolute advantage, it can still
specialise and trade with another for mutual benefits.
With the same resources by both countries, Country M can produce 100 oranges
and zero apples or 20 apples zero oranges, while Country R can produce
30 oranges and zero apples or 10 apples and zero oranges. All other points on the
production possibility line are possible combinations of the two goods that can be
produced given current resources. Point A on both graphs is where the countries
start producing and consuming before trade. Point B is where they end up after
trade. Country M will export 40 units of orange and import 10 units of apples. As
for Country R will export 10 units of apples and import 40 units of oranges.
Trade is not determined by the production efficiency of certain goods but by the
opportunity cost of producing the goods when compared with other countries. A
country is said to have a comparative advantage in the production of certain goods
if the opportunity cost is lower than other countries. Table 8.3 shows the
opportunity cost for the production of apples in the unit quantity of oranges that
had to be given up.
Based on Table 8.3 (using date from previous example), we can see that country M
is forced to give up five oranges to produce one apple whereas Country R has
to give up three oranges to produce one apple. This difference allows for
specialisation and trade to be carried out between the two countries. Country R is
relatively more efficient at producing apples. Although it does not have an
absolute advantage, Country R has a comparative advantage in producing apples.
Table 8.4 shows the opportunity cost in the production of oranges, expressed in
unit quantity of apples that had to be given up. Since Country R has a comparative
advantage in producing apples, Country M will have a comparative advantage in
producing oranges. Table 8.4 shows that the opportunity cost for Country M to
produce oranges is 1/5 apples whereas it is 1/3 apples for Country R. Because 1/5
is less than 1/3, Country M only has to sacrifice fewer apples to produce oranges
compared with Country R. Relatively, Country M is more efficient in the
production of oranges.
EXERCISE 8.2
ACTIVITY 8.2
International trade has existed in Malaysia since the era of the Malacca
Sultanate. What could have been the benefits gained from international
trade at that time? Compare them to the benefits of international trade
today.
Now let us look at Table 8.5 for a detailed explanation of all the benefits.
Benefits of
Description
International Trade
Acquire goods that Citizens in every country need a variety of goods. However,
cannot be produced every country is unable to produce all the goods that it wanted
locally and needed. Therefore, trade between countries is carried out to
acquire goods that cannot be produced locally.
Widen the market for A countryÊs production can be marketed widely through
local products international trade. Goods that are locally made can be exported
to other countries. A higher production quantity will help to
efficiently utilise factors of production.
This will reduce the cost of production and the price. It will
increase the living conditions of the people.
Increase efficiency in International trade encourages specialisation. Specialisation
the usage of means each country specialises in producing a particular
production factors product which it can produce efficiently. This will ensure
efficiency in the usage of production factors.
Acquire modern International trade allows modern technology to be imported
technology from developed countries to developing countries. Modern
technology will enable developing countries to increase their
production capabilities. International trade also allows
developing countries to enjoy the usage of high technology
products like computers, digital cameras and such.
ACTIVITY 8.3
There are also other benefits from international trade. List down other
benefits and discuss your list with your classmates in the myINSPIRE
online forum.
ACTIVITY 8.4
8.5.1 Tariff
Do you know what tariff means?
Tariff can be divided into three types, namely ad valorem tariff, specific tariff and
compound tariff. Let us refer to Table 8.6 to identify the differences in these tariffs.
Tariff will cause the cost of imported goods to go up and this means the price of
the goods will increase as well. Indirectly, tariff reduces the local consumersÊ
intention to purchase imported goods.
8.5.2 Non-tariffs
Non-tariff barriers can be divided into five categories. Let us learn more about the
five categories.
(a) Quota
How do we define quota?
Quota is the maximum limit set on the quantity of an item that can be
imported into a country during a given period of time.
The main effect of a quota is that it increases the price of the imported goods.
However, because of the limited quantity of goods, consumers are willing to
spend a lot of money to obtain those products.
(b) Subsidy
How about subsidy?
The government can also direct financial institutions such as banks to reduce
the lending of loans to support the purchase of imported goods.
EXERCISE 8.3
There are two methods of measuring terms of trade for a country price and goods.
Let us look further at these two methods in the following subtopics.
8.6.1 Price
Firstly, let us learn the definition of price terms of trade.
Price terms of trade means the ratio of price of export commodity to price of
import commodity in a country.
When export price drops and import price goes up or remains the same, the price
terms of trade for that country will deteriorate.
On the other hand, when export price increases or remains unchanged and the
import price reduces, the price terms of trade will increase.
8.6.2 Goods
How about goods terms of trade?
When the same export quantity can obtain a lower import quantity, the goods
terms of trade will increase.
On the other hand, when the same export quantity can obtain a higher import
quantity or lower export quantity can obtain the same import quantity, the goods
terms of trade will drop.
For instance, in the mid 1980s, the automobile industry in Malaysia was still new
and needed government assistance. This industry was in its infancy stage and was
not ready to compete with giant foreign firms such as Ford and Honda. In the
beginning, the industry was not competitive in many aspects such as price, cost of
production and product quality.
For example, Malaysia exports its palm oil. If the price of palm oil in the
international market drops suddenly and Malaysia does not have another source
of income, then Malaysia will have no choice but to solely depend on the export of
palm oil. Therefore, protection is required for other industries to diversify the
countryÊs economic activities.
Dumping refers to the activity of foreign firms that have excess production to
sell the excess products to other countries for a much cheaper price compared
to the price sold in their own country.
This situation will encourage imports. If this continues, it will seriously affect the
local industry. Therefore, protection policies act as anti-dumping measures and
are needed to look after the welfare of the local industries because they contribute
towards the countryÊs economy.
EXERCISE 8.4
1. What is the meaning of terms of trade?
2. Why are protection policies needed?
Factors that encourage countries to trade with one another are the possession
of different production factors, climate, labour skills and consumption
patterns.
Several trade barriers that are commonly used in international trade are tariff
and non-tariff barriers such as quota, subsidy, voluntary export restraint (VER)
and foreign currency control. These barriers are used to protect new industries,
protect national security, diversify a countryÊs economic activities and avoid
dumping.
INTRODUCTION
Import and export are important activities for an open economy. Besides these,
other international transactions are also equally important to the economy such as
purchase of bonds, shares and other foreign financial assets.
Most international transactions involve the payment flow between countries. For
this purpose, the mechanism to determine the value of foreign currency is
required. The value of currency is very important to determine exports, imports
and a countryÊs foreign investment. For instance, the value of the Ringgit
compared with American Dollar, Japanese Yen and Euro is important for
MalaysiaÊs international transactions.
This topic is divided into two parts. The first part focuses on the foreign exchange
rate. It covers the process of determining the foreign exchange rate and the factors
that influence it. The second part explains how each international transaction
influences the payment flow between countries. The classification of these
transactions will also be explained. This second part specifically discusses the
balance of payments accounts, issues and concepts related to it. Let us continue the
lesson!
Before we proceed further, what does foreign exchange rate refer to?
Foreign exchange rate refers to the rate at which one currency may be
converted into another.
For example, Proton company agrees to sell a car for RM30,000 to a dealer in
America. If the foreign exchange rate between the American Dollar and the Ringgit
is RM2.50 to USD1, then the dealer in America has to pay USD12,000 to purchase
a Proton Wira car.
Since trade is carried out with countries using different currencies, the foreign
exchange rate plays a vital role in influencing international trade.
If the foreign exchange rate increases from RM2.50 to RM2.60 for USD1, that means
the value of the Dollar has increased compared to the Ringgit. In other words, the
value of the Ringgit has depreciated. This is because with USD1, the holder can
now get more Ringgit. On the other hand, if the foreign exchange rate drops from
RM2.50 to RM2.40 for USD1, then the value of the Dollar has depreciated
compared to the ringgit. In other words, the value of the Ringgit has increased
compared to the Dollar because USD1 can now be purchased with just RM2.40.
In this topic, the foreign exchange rate is stated in Ringgit for every unit of Dollar,
for example, RM2.50 for USD1. Actually, the foreign exchange rate can also be
stated in Dollar for every Ringgit, that is, USD0.40 for every RM1. This means that
USD0.40 can be exchanged for RM1. This figure is obtained by dividing USD1 with
RM2.50, which equals to USD0.40.
ACTIVITY 9.1
In your opinion, how important is the foreign exchange rate to a
government that sponsors its studentsÊ costs of education to overseas
countries? Share your opinion with your coursemates in myINSPIRE
online forum.
The vertical axis represents the foreign exchange rate that is stated in Ringgit for
every Dollar. The supply curve shows the quantity of Dollars supplied to be
converted into Ringgit. Americans have to get Ringgit in order to purchase goods
from Malaysia. Similarly, if firms from the United States want to make investments
in Malaysia or to make transfer payments to residents in Malaysia, they will
supply the US Dollar to get Malaysian Ringgit.
The demand curve shows the quantity of Dollars that is demanded in exchange for
Ringgit. If an individual or firm from Malaysia wants to buy a product made in
America, he will have to get Dollars and exchange it to Ringgit. Similarly, if firms
from Malaysia want to make investments in the United States or to make transfer
payments to residents in the United States, they will demand US Dollars and
exchange with the Malaysian Ringgit.
The equilibrium value is RM2.50 for USD1. If the exchange rate increases to
RM3.00 for USD1, then the value of Dollar has appreciated compared with Ringgit
because every USD1 can get RM3.00. In reverse, if the exchange rate drops to
RM2.00 for USD1, then the value of Ringgit has increased compared to the Dollar.
EXERCISE 9.1
Notice that the original demand curve D moved to the right to DÊ. This increases
the equilibrium of foreign exchange rate from RM2.50/USD1 to RM2.75/USD1
(now USD1 equals to RM2.75). An increase in demand pushes up the value of the
Dollar because more Ringgit can be obtained with USD1. In other words, the value
of the Ringgit depreciated in comparison to the Dollar.
Figure 9.3 shows the effect of an increase in supply of the Dollar compared to
the Ringgit. This increase causes the original supply curve S to move to SÊ and
achieve a new equilibrium rate at RM2.25/USD1. At this level, USD1 can only be
exchanged with RM2.25. This rate is a little higher than the rate of RM2.50/USD1.
In other words, the value of the Dollar has depreciated compared to the Ringgit or
the value of the Ringgit has gone up compared to the Dollar.
ACTIVITY 9.2
Imagine that you are a money changer in Kuala Lumpur. Discuss how
international trade activities in Malaysia can influence your business.
Figure 9.4: Four factors that influence the foreign exchange rate
On the other hand, if the price of imported goods is cheaper, it will encourage
demand for foreign currency with an increase in imports. This will cause the value
of foreign currency to go up and the value of the local currency to drop.
Secondly, inflation not only affects the price of goods sold domestically but also
the price of goods exported. Exported goods will become more expensive and this
will cause a decline in the demand for local currency. Eventually, the value of the
local currency will decrease.
The interest rate reflects the rate of returns on the investment made.
High interest rate shows profitable investment returns and this increases the
capital inflow. An increase in capital inflow will cause an increase in demand for
local currency and this will eventually increase the value of local currency
compared with foreign currency.
On the other hand, low interest rate compared with that of other countries will
encourage capital outflow. This will reduce demand and subsequently, the value
of the local currency. Demand for foreign currency will increase because investors
will invest in countries that offer a higher interest rate.
EXERCISE 9.2
ACTIVITY 9.3
There are many interesting articles for you to read which provide
additional information on consumerism in Malaysia.
Discuss the price trends of imported goods and services in Malaysia over
the last ten years. Why is it so?
The financial records can be classified either as credit or debit depending on the
type of international transactions that are carried out.
Credit transactions record the receipts of money from other countries. On the
other hand, debit transactions record payments made to other countries.
The credit transactions will be marked positive (+) in the balance of payments
account. Credit transactions include exports of goods and services, receipts of
transfer payment or gifts, and any capital inflow. Debit transactions will be marked
negative (ă) in the balance of payments account. Among the debit transactions are
the imports of goods and services, giving of gifts to other countries and capital
outflow.
Let us look at each of the accounts in more detail in the following subtopics.
Table 9.1 gives the description of the three types of accounts in the current account.
Type of Current
Description
Account
Trade Account The trade account records the total exports and imports for the
production of agriculture, mining and various other traded goods.
These three transactions, when placed together, form the current balance, as given
in the following formula:
As shown in Figure 9.7, the capital account is divided into two smaller accounts,
namely, long-term capital account and short-term capital account.
Type of Long-term
Explanation
Capital Account
Official Long-term The movement of official long-term capital comprises the
Capital loans and payments between the government of one
country and that of another, or international financial
bodies. Some examples are loans taken by the Malaysian
government from Japan and the World Bank.
Private Long-term The movement of private long-term capital can be divided
Capital into two types, namely direct investment and portfolio
investment. Direct investment means investing in asset
ownership such as building new firms in other countries
together with the ownership control.
When the current balance is added to the long-term capital account, they
form the basic balance as shown here:
Type of Short-term
Explanation
Capital Account
Official Short-term The movement of official short-term capital is the payments
Capital of interest on loans taken from other countries or
international financial institutions. For example, payment
of interest by the Malaysian government on loans taken
from the World Bank.
Private Short-term The movement of private short-term capital includes bank
Capital loans, trade credits and such for a short period. For
instance, short-term investments made by foreign investors
in the country to earn profits in the short-run.
In addition, if there is a deficit balance of payments, the foreign currency and gold
reserves will decrease as well. This clearly shows that surplus or deficit balance of
payments will be balanced by changes in the official settlement account.
When the basic balance (current balance + long-term capital account) is added to
short-term capital account and the official settlement account, the total obtained is
called the balance of payments.
SELF-CHECK 9.1
Are these statements True or False? Mark in the appropriate column.
You can check your answers based on the topics you have studied.
ACTIVITY 9.4
Find articles on balance of payments and the accounts that you have
studied in this topic from the Malaysian Department of StatisticsÊ website
(www.statistics.gov.my).
Extract the important points from the articles and share with your
coursemates in the myINSPIRE online forum.
Foreign exchange rate refers to the rate at which one currency may be
converted into another.
The foreign exchange determinant process is based on the power of supply and
demand.
Factors such as prices of goods, inflation levels, interest rates and peopleÊs
income influence the foreign exchange rate.
INTRODUCTION
Since the beginning of the 20th century, the world has operated under a number
of different monetary systems. In this topic, we will learn about the history of the
most widely used international monetary system, namely the Gold Standard and
the Bretton Woods system. The Gold Standard, which was in use up until 1914,
had its own weaknesses and was eventually replaced by the Bretton Woods system
in the 1940s after an international conference in Bretton Woods.
We will also discuss the managed floating exchange rate system, which has
evolved over the past few decades. In addition, the advantages and disadvantages
of both flexible and fixed exchange rates will also be examined at the end of this
topic. Let us begin the lesson!
Under the Gold Standard, which operated from 1870 to 1914, the external value of
all currencies was maintained by fixing their prices in terms of gold. The Gold
Standard was the major system of exchange rate determination at that time. This
means that all currencies were exchanged at fixed ratios to gold and, therefore, the
exchange rate could be determined easily. To understand more clearly, let us look
at this example:
One ounce of gold is worth USD40. The same ounce of gold is also worth £5.
This means that the same ounce of gold can be exchanged for USD40 or £5.
Based on this, the exchange rate between dollars and pounds was USD40/£5 or
simply USD8 to £1.
However, in order for the system to be effective, the country had to be willing to
buy and sell gold at the determined price. In other words, the countryÊs central
bank had to preserve the official parity between its currency and gold by buying
and/or selling gold at the official parity price, which was the price of each
countryÊs currency in terms of gold. Since the gold content of each countryÊs
currency was known and fixed, the exchange rates between the countries were also
fixed.
The Gold Standard was not only a means of fixing exchange rates between
countries but it also automatically managed the countryÊs money supply. This is
because an inflow of gold into the country would cause the countryÊs money
supply to expand and conversely, an outflow of gold would cause the countryÊs
money supply to contract. If gold were flowing from Country A to Country B,
Country BÊs money supply would increase and Country AÊs money supply would
decrease. When this happens, an increase in Country BÊs money supply would
lower its interest rate and therefore stimulate aggregate demand. Consequently,
the aggregate output and the price level would also increase. Higher prices in
Country B would discourage citizens in Country A from buying goods from
Country B. Meanwhile, citizens in Country B would import more goods from
Country A as they would have more income and face relatively lower import
prices. In the end, the changes in relative prices and income, which resulted from
the inflow and outflow of gold, would automatically revert back into balance.
ACTIVITY 10.1
Visit this website to gather more information on the Gold Standard at:
http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/237431/gold-standard
Discuss why the Gold Standard is no longer used today. Share your
opinion with your coursemates in myINSPIRE online forum.
However, this would affect the economy as income and employment would
decrease. In other words, a country could act to protect its gold reserves and this
action would eventually prevent the adjustment mechanism from correcting the
deficit. Besides that, the money supply of a country depends on the amount of
available gold. Therefore, when major new gold mines are discovered, the worldÊs
supply of gold would increase, and in turn would cause the price level and income
to increase. On the other hand, when no new gold mine is discovered, the price
level and income would decrease.
EXERCISE 10.1
The Bretton Woods system is a system in which currencies are pegged to the
US dollar and the dollar was fixed at the rate of USD35 per ounce of gold.
It was also agreed that a new international monetary institution known as the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) be created to play an important role in the
operation of the international monetary system. As stated earlier, the Gold
Standard gave rise to the problem of a countryÊs control over its money supply.
The Bretton Woods system was developed to link an imbalance in the balance of
payments to a countryÊs money supply. In other words, to reduce the role of gold
in determining a countryÊs money supply.
Under a pure fixed exchange rate system, the government would set a fixed rate
at which its currency will be exchanged for and then commit to maintaining that
rate. The government will then has to intervene, by buying or selling foreign
exchange to manipulate the exchange rate and to keep its currency aligned to its
established value.
On the other hand, what would happen to countries which have a balance of
payments surplus? Under the Bretton Woods system, countries with a balance of
payment surplus were allowed to accumulate reserves through intervention.
These countries are supposed to stimulate their economies and/or revalue their
currencies to restore balance to their balance of payments, however, they are not
obliged to do so. The fixed exchange rate could be maintained easily as the
countries could buy any excess supply of foreign exchange with their own
currency.
Another problem with the Bretton Woods system was that all currencies were
fixed to the US dollar and the US government was obligated to exchange the
dollars for gold at a fixed price. This implies that as long as the USÊ balance of
payments was balanced in the long run, the system would operate well. However,
what happened in the mid 1960s? The US balance of payments was in deficit. Since
all countries demanded for dollars to be used for intervention, the US was not
obligated to correct the imbalances. Therefore, no action was taken, that is, there
were no adjustments to the fiscal policy or monetary policy in order to correct the
external imbalance.
Over time, foreign central banks were holding an increasing amount of dollars.
Countries with balance of payments surplus had to buy US dollars and sell their
domestic currency to prevent their currency from appreciating. Problems started
to occur at the end of the 1960s where foreign central banks were holding a large
amount of US dollars compared to the US stock of gold at the official price of
USD35 per ounce.
In general, the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s was linked
to the US balance of payments deficit. The announcement made by the US in
August 1971 stated that it would no longer redeem dollars for gold. This marked
the end of the Bretton Woods system.
EXERCISE 10.2
Discuss the main problems of the Bretton Woods system which led to the
breakdown of the system.
The flexible exchange rate is an exchange rate in which the value is determined
by market forces, without any intervention from the central bank.
The flexible exchange rate period officially began in 1973 after the breakdown of
the Bretton Woods system. Under this system, demand and supply determine the
exchange rates without any government intervention. The foreign exchange
market will always clear itself and the government can turn its attention to
domestic problems such as inflation and unemployment while leaving the balance
of payments to adjust itself.
With this movement from fixed or stable exchange rate to flexible exchange rate, it
has been argued that the flexible exchange rates was able to offer a superior
alternative to fixed exchange rates in correcting the balance of payments
disequilibrium. Theoretically, this system allows a nation to achieve internal
balance easily and automatically. However, the degree of exchange rate volatility
has been associated with high absolute levels of, and great movements in, other
economic parameters such as inflation rate and interest rate.
As such, there are also arguments against the flexible exchange rate system. One
of argument is that volatility in the foreign exchange market imposes a really high
economic cost and this reduces real international trade. Besides the volatility
problem, the most important problem is misalignment, which undermines
economic performance in several ways including generated austerity, adjustment
costs, recession, deindustrialisation, inflation and protectionism.
(a) Under the flexible exchange rate system, a deficit or surplus in the nationÊs
balance of payments is automatically corrected by a depreciation or an
appreciation of that nationÊs currency. Therefore, no policy decisions or
government interventions are needed to bring about adjustment in the
balance of payments disequilibrium. This system can be derived
fundamentally from the laws of supply and demand, where the competitive
market establishes the price that equates quantity demanded with quantity
supplied, and thus clears the market.
(b) Under the flexible exchange rate system, the balance of payments
disequilibrium is theoretically corrected in a smooth and continuous manner.
This is in contrast to the sudden erratic jumps under the Bretton Woods
system. As the exchange rate moves in a smooth fashion, this would result in
stabilising speculation, which prevents the exchange rate from overshooting
the fundamental equilibrium value. The movement of the exchange rate is
facilitated and made smoother by the actions of private speculators based on
their reading of current and prospective economic and policy developments.
As a result of these actions, overvalued currencies will then be sold, thus
reducing their values while undervalued currencies will be bought, thus
pushing up their values. In any case, flexible exchange rates will eliminate
the principle case of speculation, for example, major delayed discrete
changes in exchange rate.
(c) The flexible exchange rate system overcomes the problem of asymmetrical
adjustment since not only will the overvalued currencies depreciate but the
undervalued currencies will also appreciate. Therefore, the deflationary bias
in the world economy could disappear.
(d) The flexible exchange rate system reduces and removes the need for payment
policies such as protectionism. As a result, the full employment of the
worldÊs resources will be used efficiently.
It has been argued that the flexible exchange rates would lead to market efficiency.
In contrast, the fixed exchange rate system is inefficient as it may lead to policy
mistakes. Therefore, in flexible exchange rate system, purely internal economic
objectives would be achieved.
The balance of payments may adjust either through fluctuations in the exchange
rate as discussed earlier, or through changes in internal economic variables and
policies. Here, the fluctuation in the exchange rates is regarded as a substitute for
unacceptable economic adjustments in the international adjustment process. A
country can avoid the necessity of exposing domestic economic variables and
policies to external influences by allowing the exchange rate itself to bear the
burden of the international adjustment.
For example, suppose that a foreign recession threatens the domestic economy
through a fall in export demand. Under the flexible exchange rate regime, the
exchange rate depreciates and this prevents the balance of trade from worsening
by encouraging an increase in exports and a decrease in imports. Therefore, the
monetary authorities are free from the balance of payments constraint and are able
to pursue the goals of domestic stabilisation policies.
The biggest contribution of the flexible exchange rate system is that it provides
discretionary monetary independence rather than automatic insulation. It also
gives freedom to policymakers to set discretionary domestic policies without
explicit concern over balance of payments. In other words, under flexible exchange
rates, a nation can let the exchange rate take care of the external balance while it
directs its macroeconomic policies towards internal balance problems.
In the case of using the fiscal policy to achieve internal balance under the flexible
exchange rate, the fiscal policy affects the exchange rate in two ways. When a
nation expands its fiscal policy through increasing government spending or
reducing the tax rates, the aggregate spending and national income would
increase. As a result, imports increase and this worsens the trade balance and
weakens the domestic currency. At the same time, fiscal expansion increases the
interest rates and the government borrows more.
In the short run, high domestic interest rates attract capital from abroad. As a
result, two opposing tendencies might emerge, that is, an aggregate demand rise
that weakens the domestic currency versus a capital inflow that strengthens it for
a while. It would be more likely that the first effect would be stronger and longer
lasting, since the second effect might be offset by later outflows of interest and
principle repayments on the attracted capital. The overall result would probably
see the fiscal policy causing the currency to depreciate and, therefore, provides an
extra trade base for domestic production.
From the previous arguments, we can conclude that this system is generally more
efficient and gives countries more flexibility in pursuing their own stabilisation
policies. It also gives monetary authorities a greater control over the countriesÊ
money supply for their domestic stabilisation purposes in trying to achieve
internal macroeconomic goals of employment, output, price stability and
economic growth.
Some of the serious problems with the flexible exchange rates are as follows:
(a) It was argued that the flexible exchange rate system is associated with
volatility and misalignment. Opponents of flexible exchange rates claimed
that the worldÊs economic performance had worsened because of the
adoption of this system. In the case of volatility, two things can be inferred.
Firstly, the volatility might mean that the fundamental equilibrium exchange
rates are in themselves volatile and that the nominal rates are not equal to
the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate. It was also argued that, in
general, factors that determine the fundamental equilibrium exchange rates
such as productivity growth, terms of trade movement and changes in
savings-investment do not normally alter as quickly and as dramatically.
While these factors can explain the slow movements in exchange rates, it is
difficult to see how they are able to explain the high degree of volatility.
Therefore, it can be concluded that for much of the time since 1973, there has
been considerable misalignment of currencies.
(b) The flexible exchange rate system also causes uncertainty for both investors
and traders. Uncertainty caused by currency fluctuations discourages
international trade and investment.
SELF-CHECK 10.1
(a) Certainty is an advantage in the fixed exchange rate system. Under the fixed
exchange rate system, international trade and investment becomes much less
risky. Firms can forecast correctly and, therefore, make profits. This in turn
encourages international trade. Foreign investment is also encouraged, as
firms are more willing to set up factories overseas when there is less
uncertainty about exchange rate fluctuations.
(b) Fixed exchange rates would also eliminate destabilising speculation. If the
exchange rate is fixed, there is no point in speculating. Since there is no
speculative pressure on the currency, the central bank would have less to
intervene in order to maintain the rate.
(c) Loss of freedom in internal policy of a country. The needs of the exchange
rate can dominate policy and this may not be best for the economy at that
point. Interest rates and other policies may be set according to the value of
the exchange rate rather than the more important macro objectives of
inflation and unemployment.
(d) Fixed exchange rates are fundamentally unstable. Countries with a fixed
exchange rate mechanism often follow different economic policies, the result
of which tends to be differing rates of inflation. This means that some
countries will have low inflation and be very competitive while others will
have high inflation and not be very competitive. The uncompetitive countries
will be under severe pressure continually and may, ultimately, have to
devalue their currency.
Each exchange rate system has its own advantages and disadvantages and each
country would adopt the exchange rate system that deemed necessary for the
country.
The Gold Standard was the main system of exchange rate determination before
1914.
The Bretton Woods system was used in 1931 after the collapse of the Gold
Standard, which applied the fixed exchange rate system.
After the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, a flexible exchange
rate system officially begun in 1973, where demand and supply were used to
determine the exchange rates without any government intervention.
Under the managed floating exchange rates, the government intervenes when
foreign exchange rates fluctuate more than the governmentÊs desired rates.
The advantages of the flexible exchange rate system include the following:
The disadvantages of the flexible exchange rate system are its volatility,
misalignment and uncertainty.
The advantages of the fixed exchange rate system are that it is less risky and
less volatile which encourages trade and investment and no speculation.
Exercise 1.1
1. Inflation is an increase in the general price level and usually measured by
looking at changes in the customer price note.
Exercise 1.2
1. Business cycle refers to short-term movements (economic growth and
recession) of economic activities.
2. The rate of unemployment will increase when there is a recession and it will
decrease when there is economic growth.
3. The rate of unemployment will not become zero even when there is economic
growth because there will be some unemployment, for example, when there
is a change of jobs or while workers wait for better job opportunities.
Exercise 1.3
Macroeconomists are involved in macroeconomic forecasting, macroeconomic
analysis, macroeconomic research, developing and testing economic theories, and
collecting data. Macroeconomic research is beneficial in testing models to increase
the precision of the forecast. It provides information on how economic research
can help in the macroeconomic analysis and on the types of data that need to be
collected.
Exercise 1.4
The classical view states that wages and prices will change rapidly whereas the
Keynesian view states that wages and prices change rather slowly when the
economy is imbalanced. According to the classical theory, high unemployment
rate will not last long and change in wages and prices will help the economy
achieve market equilibrium. However, if the Keynesian theory is true, then the
slow change in wages and prices would mean that unemployment rate will remain
high for a longer period of time unless there is government intervention.
Exercise 2.1
TRUE (T)/FALSE (F) Statements
1. T 2. F 3. F 4. T 5. T
Exercise 2.2
1. The difference between GDP and GNP is the net income from overseas.
2. The goods are included in the calculations for 2018 because GDP measures
the output value of goods produced, and not that of goods sold.
3. For developing countries, the value of GDP is usually higher than the value
of GNP. This is because the foreign investment in the country is higher than
the investments made by the locals in foreign countries.
Exercise 2.3
1. Methods of calculating GDP:
2. The value of factor cost is adjusted to market prices using the following
formula:
Exercise 2.4
1. Activities that are not included are:
(a) Traditional farming activities;
(b) Illegal activities;
(c) Unpaid productive activities; and
(d) Non-cash rewards.
2. Real GDP is calculated based on fixed yearly prices. Basically, the GDP value
does not have any element of price change in its calculation. Only the
quantity of the goods produced changes. Meanwhile, nominal GDP is
measured using current prices for the year.
Exercise 2.5
1. National production data is used:
(a) To measure economic performance;
(b) To facilitate policy-makersÊ planning;
(c) To show or indicate the success or failure of government policies;
(d) To measure the peopleÊs standard of living; and
(e) To evaluate the contributions of economic sectors towards the
countryÊs economy.
2. There are two types of factors that will affect the national income level,
namely internal factors and external factors.
Exercise 2.6
1. Problems in calculating national production are as follows:
2. The business cycle refers to the periodic fluctuations in the rate of economic
activity, as measured by levels of employment, prices and production.
There are five phases in a business cycle, namely peaks, troughs, recovery,
growth (expansion) and recession (contraction). The points between the
phases are indicated by peaks and troughs. The most important phases in a
business cycle are growth (expansion) and recession (contraction). An
economy is said to have achieved a full cycle when the economy has gone
through the five phasess. For example, a business cycle that starts at the peak
is complete when it ends at the next peak.
Recession starts at the peak and ends at the trough. Recession occurs when
the value of real national production drops continuously for two quarters of
a year. The main characteristics of a recession include a decrease in demand
for labour and a reduction in spending by the consumers. Recession is also
reflected in the drop in firmsÊ profits. Since consumer spending decreases
during recession, all the firmsÊ unsold products increase and this will raise
the firmsÊ inventories.
Expansion, on the other hand, begins at the trough and ends at the peak. The
early stage of expansion is called recovery. This happens when national
production actually increases continuously for six months. A growth in
the economy reflects the increase in business sector confidence, hike in
investment and a demand for labour. As income increases, the spending
power of the people also increases and this in turn causes firmsÊ profits to go
up and inventories to reduce.
Exercise 3.1
1. Disposable income = Consumption + Savings
Y = C+I
Y = 100 + 0.8Y + 50
0.2Y = 150
Y = 750.
5. Above
7. When the leakage is bigger than injection, the national income level
decreases. It also creates deflation.
Exercise 3.2
1. Please refer to the discussion on taxes and government expenditure for the
answer.
Exercise 3.3
1. Players in the four-sector economy are:
(a) Households;
(b) Firms;
Two additional concepts for a four-sector economy are import and export.
2. Equilibrium condition:
Y = C + I + G + (X ă M ) or S + T + M = I + G + X
3. Increases, decreases
Exercise 3.4
1. Fiscal policy is a government policy that is used to achieve government
objectives or economic goals such as higher employment rate, stable inflation
rate and encouraging economic growth. The fiscal policy consists of two
main tools, namely government expenditure and taxes.
3. Similarity:
It happens when the aggregate supply differs from the aggregate demand.
Difference:
Inflationary gap happens when the aggregate demand is more than the
aggregate supply. Deflationary gap happens when the aggregate demand is
less than the aggregate supply.
(b) Durability;
(c) Divisibility;
(d) Portability;
(f) Acceptability.
Exercise 4.2
1. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has to ensure that the banking system is
operating properly and smoothly because that is a necessity for good
economic growth. Therefore, BNM has to control the activities of financial
institutions so that they are in line with the government's objectives.
(a) Savings deposit ă Does not have chequing facilities and the savings
earn interest as returns.
(b) Fixed deposit ă Savings for a fixed time period and interest is paid. No
chequing facilities.
(c) Current deposit ă Interest is not paid but depositors are given chequing
facilities.
Exercise 4.3
(a) Deposit multiplier = 1/RR = 1/0.25 = 4
Exercise 4.4
1. Money creation does not refer to the activity of printing money. It refers to
the multiplier process that happens each time credit is given to the customer
because the giving of new credit will add the total money supply (M1, M2
and M3) in the market. This process of adding money supply is called money
creation or credit creation.
Exercise 4.5
1. Money demand for precautionary purposes refers to money demand needed
to face unforeseen events like accidents, death and such. In life, we usually
face unforeseen events. These unexpected events usually make it difficult for
us to plan our expenses. An example is when you are retrenched because the
company has suffered losses due to recession. While looking for a new job,
you will probably have to use up your savings for your daily expenditure.
Therefore, you should keep aside a portion of your income or salary for
unforeseen expenditures.
2. The main factor that influences money demand for precautionary purposes
is the level of income. The higher the income, the more money will be saved
for this purpose.
Exercise 4.6
1. Current deposit refers to savings in a bank that do not earn interest but the
depositor is provided with the facility to withdraw money by issuing a
cheque.
2. When money supply exceeds money demand, there will be excess money in
the market. To use up the excess money, people will buy bonds. This
continuous process will cause the price of bonds to rise, whereas interest rate
will drop until it reaches the equilibrium level.
3. (a) Money demand reduces from Md to Md1 and interest rate drops to R1.
(b) In order to maintain the interest rate, the central bank will have to cut
down the money supply in the market.
Exercise 5.1
1. An increase in government spending might cause a reduction in private
investment spending. If the money supply does not expand to accommodate
the rise in income and therefore an increase in money demand, planned
investment spending will be partially crowded out by the higher interest
rate. Although income still increases, the multiplier effect of the rise in
government spending (G) is lessened as the higher interest rate has a
negative effect on planned investment.
Exercise 6.1
1. Aggregate demand curve slopes negatively to show the negative relationship
between price and production level, assuming that all other factors are fixed.
2. Four factors that change the aggregate demand curve are as follows:
5. The long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical because the produced output
is the potential output. Costs and prices increase at the same time.
Exercise 7.1
1. Unemployment refers to the labour force that does not work. They refer to a
working age group aged above 16 years old who do not work but who are
actively looking for jobs.
2. An unemployment rate of 4 per cent means 4 per cent of the labour force in
the country is currently not working.
Exercise 7.2
1. Both unemployed persons and discouraged workers do not have jobs. The
difference between these two is that an unemployed person is actively
looking for a job while a discouraged worker does not show any interest or
make any efforts to find a job.
2. Full-time workers are those who work 35 hours or more in a week. Part-time
workers only work less than 35 hours a week.
Exercise 7.3
1. Types of unemployment:
(a) Frictional
Frictional unemployment or normal unemployment exists only for a
short period. It happens when individuals are moving between jobs,
careers and locations.
(b) Structural
Structural unemployment happens because workers do not have the
expertise and the ability to work in a new sector. It usually exists for a
longer period of time and a government policy has to be implemented
to overcome this problem.
(c) Cyclical
Cyclical unemployment is caused by economic conditions that go up
and down. It occurs when the unemployment rate moves in the
opposite direction to the GDP growth rate. Therefore, when GDP
growth is small (or negative) unemployment is high. When there is
recession, demand for goods and services drop. This will force firms
to reduce their production and thus, cut down on their labour
requirements.
3. Jobs for all who want to work. Full employment means that everyone who
wants work and is willing to work at the market wage is at work. In a larger
context, it refers to a situation whereby production resources are used fully
without any wastage. It can also be defined as production level where the
real unemployment rate equals the natural unemployment rate.
Exercise 7.4
1. Reasons of unemployment:
Those who have lost their jobs have two choices ă either to look for a
new job or leave the labour force. Those who leave the labour force are
not considered unemployed.
Exercise 7.5
1. A continued increase in general price level is known as inflation.
2. The main component of the consumer basket for Malaysian CPI is the
expenses for food, which represents 34 per cent of the total expenditure.
Exercise 7.6
1. There are three main steps in the calculation of CPI:
(a) Calculate the cost of CPI consumer basket at base year price;
(b) Calculate the cost of CPI consumer basket at current year price; and
(c) Calculate the CPI for base year and current year.
Exercise 8.1
1. International trade is the process of exchanging or selling and purchasing of
goods and services between two or more countries.
Exercise 8.2
1. Absolute advantage is defined as a countryÊs ability to produce more of a
product than another country can, with the same amount of resources.
Comparative advantage refers to a countryÊs ability to produce a product
with relatively lower cost compared to other countries.
Exercise 8.3
1. Four benefits of international trade:
The Benefits of
Description
International Trade
Acquire goods that The people in every country need a variety of goods.
cannot be produced However, the country is unable to produce all the goods
locally that are wanted or needed. Therefore, trade between
countries is carried out to acquire goods that cannot be
produced locally.
(a) Tariff
A tariff is a tax on foreign goods upon importation. Tariffs can be
divided into three types:
(ii) Specific tariff ă A fixed tax figure that does not depend on the
value of the imported goods;
(b) Quota
A quota is the maximum limit set on the quantity of a good that can be
imported into a country in a given period of time. Implementation of
quotas will not influence government revenue. In fact, quotas provide
protection for local firms. There is no more competition from foreign
firms once the quota is fulfilled. The main effect of a quota is that it
increases the prices of the imported goods. However, because of the
limited quantity of goods, consumers are willing to spend a lot of
money to get these products.
(c) Subsidy
The government grants subsidies to the producers to improve their
market position. With subsidies, producers can market their products
at prices that are lower than their actual cost. Subsidies can be in
various forms such as outright cash disbursements, tax concessions,
loans at below market interest rates and others. Two types of subsidies
that are usually used are domestic production subsidy, which is
granted to producers of import-competing goods and export subsidy,
which is granted to producers of goods that are exported to foreign
countries.
Exercise 8.4
1. Terms of trade can be defined as the ratio of the price or quantity of an export
commodity to the price or quantity of an import commodity.
Exercise 9.1
1. Foreign exchange rate refers to the rate at which one currency may be
converted into another.
Exercise 9.2
Four factors that influence foreign exchange rate:
Exercise 10.1
1. In order for the Gold Standard system to be effective, countries should be
willing to buy and sell gold at the determined price. In other words, the
countryÊs central bank must preserve the official parity between its currency
and gold by buying and/or selling gold at the official parity price, which is
the price of each countryÊs currency in terms of gold.
2. Under the Gold Standard system, a country had little control over its money
supply. An inflow of gold would turn the balance of payments into a surplus
and the money supply would expand. A country with a balance of payments
deficit would then correct the problem by contracting its money supply.
However, this would affect the economy, whereby income and employment
would decrease. In other words, a country could act to protect its gold
reserves but this action would eventually prevent the adjustment
mechanism from correcting the deficit.
Exercise 10.2
One of the problems with the Bretton Woods system was that it was not
symmetrical. Countries with a chronic balance of payments deficit were obliged to
devalue their currencies and to cut their deficits by contracting their economies.
By taking these actions, prices and employment would increase. This means that a
country was losing its stock of foreign currencies and therefore had to change its
exchange rate. However, countries with balance of payments surplus were not
obliged to revalue their currencies. They could buy any excess supply of foreign
exchange with their own currency in an effort to maintain the fixed exchange rate.
Another problem of the Bretton Woods system was that all countriesÊ currencies
were fixed to the US Dollar and the US government was obligated to exchange the
Dollars for gold at a fixed price. This means that as long as the USÊ balance of
payments was balanced in the long run, the system would operate well. However,
in the mid 1960s, the US balance of payments was in deficit. When all countries
demanded for the Dollars tbe used for intervention, the US was not obligated to
correct the imbalances. Therefore, no action was taken to adjust the fiscal policy or
monetary policy in order to correct the external imbalance. Over time, the foreign
central banks were holding an increased amount of Dollars. Countries with
balance of payments surplus had to buy US Dollars and sell their domestic
currencies to prevent their currencies from appreciating. Problems started to occur
at the end of the 1960s when foreign central banks were holding a large amount of
US dollars compared to the USÊ stock of gold at the official price of USD35 per
ounce.
OR
Thank you.