Key IPCC Conclusions On Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations
Key IPCC Conclusions On Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations
Key IPCC Conclusions On Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations
Introduction included 12 key messages, which are measurable impacts. The author team
summarized here. of this chapter examined more than
29 000 environmental data series
The IPCC Fourth Assessment on and found that 89 per cent of these
Climate Change 2007: Impac ts, 1. Impacts of climate exhibited trends consistent with
Adaptation and Vulnerability (IPCC, warming. Most of the available data
20 07(a)) add re s sed three main
change are are terrestrial, rather than oceanic,
issues: impacts of climate change occurring now and are concentrated in Europe
which are observable now; future and North America, leading to dif
effects of climate change on different A new development in the IPCC Fourth ficulties in drawing a global picture.
sectors and regions; and responses Assessment was the introduction of Nevertheless, the conclusion is that
to such effects. The assessment a chapter dedicated to observed and natural systems around the world are
Figure 2 — Global impacts projected for changes in climate (and sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide where relevant) associated
with different amounts of global average surface temperature change in the 21st century (from IPCC, 2007(a), Technical Summary)
s tudies, par ticularly in regions main conclusions regarding these • Some ecosystems, especially
tha t previously had b e en lit tle impacts are summarized in Figures 2 tundra, boreal forest, moun
researched, have enabled a more and 3. From this assessment, the tain, Mediterranean-type
systematic understanding of IPCC author team identified those ecosystems, mangroves and
how the timing and magnitude of systems, sectors and regions most salt marshes, coral reefs and
impacts are likely to be af fected likely to be especially affected by the sea ice biomes;
by change s in climate and s ea climate change.
level as so cia ted with dif fering • Low-lying coasts, due to the
amounts and rates of change in The most vulnerable systems and threat of sea-level rise;
global average temperature. The sectors are:
• Water resources in low-latitude • Asian megadeltas, such as the 3. There are very likely
regions, due to decreases in
rainf all and higher ra te s of
Ganges-Brahmaputra and the
Zhujiang, due to large populations
to be impacts due to
evapotranspiration; and high exposure to sea-level altered frequencies
rise, s torm surge and river and intensities of
• A g r i c ul t ur e in l o w - l a t i t u d e flooding.
regions, due to reduced water
extreme weather,
availability; and climate and sea-
level events
• Human health, especially Within other areas, even those with
in ar e a s w i t h low a d ap ti ve high incomes, some people can
capacity. be particularly at risk (such as the The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
poor, young children and the elderly) concluded, with increased confidence
The most vulnerable regions are: and also some areas and some over the Third Assessment, that some
activities. weather events, such as heat waves,
• The Arc tic, because of high storms and droughts, that can have
rates of projected warming on Many of the regional differences in large impacts, are likely to become
sensitive natural systems; impact will stem from changes in more frequent and widespread in
water availability (which is essential the future and, in some cases, more
• A f r i c a , e s p e c i a ll y t h e s u b - for human health and food produc intense. In general, the related
Saharan region, because of low tion). Over the past five years, we impacts are expected to be broadly
adaptive capacity and projected have developed a clearer picture of negative, including reduced water
changes in rainfall; how water availability may change availability, damage to crops and
regionally, with indications of impor increased potential for diseases,
• S m a ll i s l a n d s , d u e to hi g h tant decreases in southern Europe especially those transmit ted by
exposure of population and and in northern and southern Africa. insect vectors. For example, it is a
infrastructure to risk of sea- If these projected changes should conclusion of the Fourth Assessment
level rise and increased storm occur, then impacts in these regions that intense tropical cyclone activity
surge; and could be severe (Figure 4). is likely to increase through the 21st
century. Thus, it is reasonable to areas. Working Group II concluded 5. The overall effect
expect events such as Hurricane that an abrupt change in the
Katrina, which hit New Orleans in Meridional Overturning Circulation
of climate change
August 2005 and caused an estimated in the North Atlantic (i.e. weakening will be negative
4 000 fatalities, to occur more often of the Gulf Stream), which could lead
in the future (Figure 5). to cooling in north-western Europe
would be ver y unlikely to occur The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
during this century. makes it clear that the impacts of
6. Adaptation will be
necessary to address
impacts resulting
from the warming
which is already
unavoidable, due
to past emissions
10. Sustainable
development may
reduce vulnerability
Figure 8 — Estimated millions of people per annum at risk globally from coastal flooding.
to climate change
Blue bars: numbers at risk without sea-level rise; purple bars: numbers at risk with sea-
level rise (from IPCC, 2007(a), Technical Summary) and climate change
may impede
nations’ abilities to
risks, nor their cost. This is especially 9. Future vulnerability achieve sustainable
true for larger amounts of warming
depends not only on development
over the long term and the IPCC
authors concluded that adaptive climate change but pathways
capacity cannot be expected to cope also on development
with large amounts of long-term Sustainable development can reduce
warming. This is why (as argued
pathway vulnerability to climate change by
below) the combination of mitigation enhancing adaptive capacity and
and adaptation will be essential. increasing resilience. At present,
Projected impacts of climate change however, few plans for promoting
8. Vulnerability to can vary greatly due to the choice sustainability have explicitly included
of f u ture e c onomic and so cial either adapting to climate change
climate change can development pathway. New research impac ts or promoting adaptive
be exacerbated by on potential impacts allows for dif capacity. On the other hand, it is
adaptation and enhance both adaptation and IPCC, 2007(b): Climate Change 2007:
mitigation measures mitigation) and research (on climate The Physical Science
Contribution of Working Group I
Basis.
science, impacts, adaptation and
to meet the challenge mitigation). But analysis of the
to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on
of climate change, but benefits of various mixes of Climate Change. S. Solomon, D. Qin,
strategy is severely restricted at
this is hampered by present by lack of information on
M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis,
K.V. Avery, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller
a lack of information potential costs of impacts, by lack (Eds), Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom, and
on the costs and of comparable information on the
New York, USA, 996 pp.
damage that could be avoided by
benefits of adaptation adaptation and, especially, by lack of IPCC, 2007(c): Climate Change 2007:
understanding of how these impacts Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva,
Even the most stringent mitigation will var y under dif ferent socio - Switzerland, 102 pp.
efforts cannot avoid some impacts economic development pathways.
of climate change over the next few It is important that these gaps in our
decades. Indeed, we are beginning to knowledge are filled quickly.