Engineering Project Management: Tutorial 3 2017/2018
Engineering Project Management: Tutorial 3 2017/2018
Engineering Project Management: Tutorial 3 2017/2018
PROJECT
MANAGEMENT
Tutorial 3
2017/2018
1
PERT
Equipment Equipment testing
installation and modification
1 4
Final
6,8,10 2,4,12 System
debugging
training
System 10
development 8
Manual 1,4,7
2 3,7,11
Start testing Finish
3,6,9
5 11
2,3,4 9
Position 1,10,13
recruiting 2,4,6
Job Training
System
3 6 changeover
System
1,3,5 testing
3,4,5
Orientation
7
2,2,2
2
tp + 4 tm + to
Mean (expected time): te =
6
Variance: Vt = 2 =
tp - to
6
x-
Z=
3
TIME ESTIMATES (WKS) MEAN TIME VARIANCE
ACTIVITYOptimistic Most likelyPessimistic t б2
1 6 8 10 8 0.44
2 3 6 9 6 1.00
3 1 3 5 3 0.44
4 2 4 12 5 2.78
5 2 3 4 3 0.11
6 3 4 5 4 0.11
7 2 2 2 2 0.00
8 3 7 11 7 1.78
9 2 4 6 4 0.44
10 1 4 7 4 1.00
11 1 10 13 9 4.00
4
1 0 8 4 8 13
8 1 9 5 16 21
10 13 17
1 0 3
Start 8 9 16 Finish
2 0 6
7 9 16
6 0 6 9
5 6 11 16
13 25
3 6 9 9 9
9 16 25
4 12 16
3 0 3 6 3 7
3 2 5 4 5 9 A ES EF
7 3 5
D LS LF
2 14 16
5
ACTIVITY t б ES EF LS LF S
1 8 0.44 0 8 1 9 1
2 6 1.00 0 6 0 6 0
3 3 0.44 0 3 2 5 2
4 5 2.78 8 13 16 21 8
5 3 0.11 6 9 6 9 0
6 4 0.11 3 7 5 9 2
7 2 0.00 3 5 14 16 11
8 7 1.78 9 16 9 16 0
9 4 0.44 9 13 12 16 3
10 4 1.00 13 17 21 25 8
11 9 4.00 16 25 16 25 0
6
Total project variance
7
Z-Probability Distribution Table
8
What is the probability that the project is
completed within 30 weeks?
x-
2 = 6.89 weeks Z =
= 6.89 = 30 - 25
2.62
= 2.62 weeks
= 1.91
X = 0.9555
9
What is the probability that the project is
completed within 22 weeks?
x-
2 = 6.89 weeks Z =
= 6.89 = 22 - 25
2.62
= 2.62 weeks
= -1.14
10