Population: Building a Foundation

The Task: Be able to explain the theory of population growth and transition.
Analyze the causes and effects of current world demographics.
Create population pyramids and use them to draw inferences about
the population

Standard: 9.3.3.5.2 – Use the demographic transition model to analyze

and explain the impact of changing birth and death rates in major
world regions.

9.3.3.5.3. – Compare the population characteristics of places at a

range of scales using population pyramids, birth and death rates, and
other key demographic variables.

How To:
Specific directions for each portion are on the individual worksheets.
1. Complete “Explaining Population Change” as a class.
2. Use ArcGIS Online to complete “The World Population Sheet at a Glance”
3. Complete “Constructing and Interpreting Population Pyramids”

Grading: Project – 30 points

1. Accuracy and Completeness (12 points)

a. All components of the assignment are complete with the expected
information.
b. All Information provided is correct.
2. Effort and Thought (12 points)
a. Work demonstrates consideration and thorough understanding of
the information.
b. Assignment shows effort and creativity (when appropriate)
3. Overall Quality (6 points)
a. COPS!!
b. Assignment is neat and looks nice.

THIS ASSIGNMENT WILL BE DUE

 Part 1: Explaining Population Change – Notes

1. Complete the following table before reading the article:

Have seen
Don’t I think I I can define the word.
or heard –
Term Know It at know the (Write definition in
don’t know
All meaning box)
meaning

Demograp
hic

Mortality

Birth Rate

Death
Rate

Fertility

2. As you read, choose a word, a phrase and a sentence that summarizes the
article.

Word:

Phrase:

Sentence:

3. Explain, in your own words, the four stages of classic demographic transition.
4. Using the reading, draw the four stages of classic demographic transition.

5. Draw the Mrs. Nelson’s graph.

6. Find a partner and divide Wallerstein’s and Rostrow’s theories. Answer the
questions about your theory and then explain the theory to your partner.
 Wallerstein
a. What are the three categories of countries, according to
Wallerstein?

b. How do the three categories interact with one another?

c. Where in the world are the three categories of countries found?

d. Assign each category to one of the stages of demographic

transition.

 Rostow
a. In your own words, explain the five stages of economic growth
defined by Rostow.

b. Why has Rostow’s theory been criticized?

c. How do Rostow’s stages compare to the stages of classical

demographic transition?
7. With your partner – discus and answer the following question. Which of these
two theories do you believe best explains economic development? Why?
 Part 2: The World Population Sheet at a Glance
Use ArcGIS Online to analyze the population of your Fantasy Geopolitics (FGP)
Team.

Take out your FGP list of all countries and add a layer to your FGP map.
 Log in to afsa.maps.arcgis.com.
 Open your FGP Map.
 Go to “Add” and choose “Search for Layers”
 In “Find” type in “World Population Data” and in “In” make sure it says “My
Organization”.
 “Add” the layer “World Population Data” by “afsa_nelson”

1. Rank, IN DESCENDING order, the 5 countries with the largest population.

You can find this by looking at the pop-up for the dark blue countries, or by
looking at the table.

Go to “Change Style” for the layer. Change the attribute to find the
information for the following question and then click “Done”.

2. How will this list change in 2030? In 2050?

2030 2050

READ: Rates are often used, instead of absolute numbers, to determine how
frequently a population or demographic event is occurring—rates show how
common an event is. Rates also make it possible to compare countries that vary
greatly in terms of population size.

a. The crude birth rate (CBR) is the annual number of births per

1,000 population.

b. The crude death rate (CDR) is the annual number of deaths per

1,000 population.

c. The infant mortality rate measures the number of deaths each

year to infants under 1 year of age per 1,000 live births.

d. The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children

a woman would have if she maintained today's level of childbearing
throughout her reproductive years.

Using the pop-ups, find the following statistics for your FGP Team.
 Country a. CBR b. CDR c. Infant d. TFR

Go into “Change Style” and under “Choose an attribute” choose “Total

Fertility Rate”

Click “Add attribute” and choose “Births per 1,000 Population”. Then
click “Done”

 In which regions of the world do we find high birth and fertility rates?
Low rates?

 How do birth and fertility rates relate to the economic level of the
country? (Use your list, or go back and change “Total Fertility Rate” to “GNI per
Capita”)

Go back to “Change Style” and change the top box to “Deaths per 1,000
Population” and the second box to “Infant Mortality Rate”

 In which regions do we find high death and infant mortality rates? Low
rates?

 How do death and infant mortality rates relate to the economic level of
the country? (See hint above)

 What do you think might cause these connections between birth and
death and a country’s economy?
READ: The age and sex structure of a population refers to the number or
proportion of males and females who are in each age category. Age-sex structure
tells us about a population's past trends in fertility, mortality, and migration. It also
provides information about the population's potential for future growth. The
greater the proportion of people in the younger-adult age groups, the greater the
potential for more births and population growth.

Use the popups to find the following statistics for your FGP Team.

Country % Under 15 % Over 65 Life Life

Expectancy Expectancy
Male Female

Use “Change Styles” to choose which statistics will be displayed on the

map.

 How does the percent of young people in least developing countries

compare to those in the most developed countries? Old people?

 Why do you think this is so?

 What can we predict about the needs of a country based on their age
structure?

 How does the life expectancy in most developed countries compare to

least developed countries?
 Why do you think this is so?

Use “Change Styles” to examine the information on “GNI PPP per

Capita”.

Gross national income in purchasing power parity per capita (GNI PPP/capita)

converts income into "international dollars" and indicates the amount of goods and
services one could buy in the United States with a given amount of money. It can
be compared to the “average income of the average person” in a country.
 What is the highest GNI PPP/capita on your FGP team? The lowest?

 Describe the patterns of high and low GNI PPP/capita you notice.

 What could lead to these patterns you noticed?

 Part 3: Constructing and Interpreting Population Pyramids

What Is an Age-Sex Graph?

An age-sex graph, commonly referred to as a population pyramid even though

the graph for some countries is not actually a pyramid shape, displays a
population's age and sex composition. Horizontal bars represent the numbers or
proportions of males and females in each age group, or cohort. The sum of all the
age-sex cohorts in the population pyramid equals 100 percent of the population.
Cohorts may vary from single years to groups of years.

Example Age-Sex Graphs with Five-Year Cohort

The left side of the pyramid represents the male population and the right side, the
female population. The bars at the bottom of the pyramid represent the percent of
the population that is male, 0-4 years old (left) and the percent of the population
that is female, 0-4 years old (right). Each bar above the base represents the next
five-year cohort, male and female, in the population. As cohorts age, they
inevitably lose members because of death and they may gain or lose members
because of migration. After age 45 the loss of population accelerates, causing the
narrowing peak of all population pyramids.

Population pyramids reveal a great deal about a population at a glance.

Populations of countries can differ markedly as a result of past and current
patterns of fertility, mortality, and migration.
Part One: Construct an Age-Sex Graph

1. Use the "Age-Sex Graph" handout, colored pencils, and the age-sex data
table.
2. Transfer the data (%) for the first pyramid by drawing the bar for the first
male cohort (0-4 years) to the left, and for the first female cohort (0-4 years)
to the right. Continue completing pyramids for both country A and country B.
3. QUESTION: Describe some of the similarities and differences in the shapes
of the two pyramids. What inferences can be drawn about social and
economic circumstances in each country? What might be some reasons for
the differences in the two pyramids?

How Do You Interpret Age-Sex Graphs?

In this activity you will analyze data for your FGP team. You will also construct
population pyramids and speculate on differences in the quality of life in these
countries.

1. Pick one of your least developed countries and one of your most developed
countries. Use the directions below to find the most current age-sex data for
their assigned country. 

2. Open the U.S. Census Bureau International Data Base, available at:
https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/informationGateway.php

3. Under "Select Report" choose “Population by Five Year Age Groups”

4. Select the country from the country list. Then "Submit."

5. Print or copy the data for the country. [Note: Disregard pyramids that appear
on the Census IDB site. These are based on absolute numbers and are not
appropriate for use in this activity.]

6. Create your population pyramids for each country.

o Label your pyramid!
 o Title your pyramid!
o Make it neat!

7. Answer the following questions.

1. Pick one of the countries that you just used to create a population pyramid.
Compare the statistics you found in the Population Data Sheet assignment
and the pyramid. How does the pyramid reflect the variables? [for example,
how is Birth Rate reflected in the base of the pyramid?]

2. Use the same country you used in 1 – is it highly developed or low

developed? Use two specific pieces of data from the table and pyramid to
support the decision about level of development.

3. Look at both population pyramids you have created. Compare the pyramids
and demographic information between the LDC and MDC. What
generalizations can be made concerning demographic indicators and level of
development? [for example, if the birth rate is high, then the level of
development is...] Form at least three generalizations that are supported by
the pyramids and data charts.
4. Think about the kinds of problems that could occur because of the
differences in lifestyle and community priorities for different age groups in
each location. Identify some investments (stores, entertainment, etc.) that
might do well or some social programs (child care, education, medicine, etc.)
that might be required in places with these populations.
 Population Pyramid Graph
Country A Year

Age
Males Females
Groups
95+

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2 1 14 15
 Population Pyramid Graph
Country B Year

Age
Males Females
Groups
95+

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2 1 14 15
 Population Pyramid Graph
Country: FGP Least - Year

Age
Males Females
Groups
95+

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2 1 14 15
 Population Pyramid Graph
Country: FGP Most - Year

Age
Males Females
Groups
95+

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2 1 14 15